Come out, come out, wherever you are

From the NY Times:

Many Foreclosures, Few Listings

PRICES are down across the board so far this year in urban, suburban, rural and shore areas, in both northern and southern New Jersey — everywhere except areas close to Manhattan commuter train service, and in all price categories except, surprisingly, the uppermost.

What is perhaps scarier, market analysts say, is that mass foreclosure actions, which could further hurt home values, have yet to make their presence felt.

“The floodgates have been opened” on foreclosures, said Bill Flagg, a foreclosure specialist with ERA Queen City Realty in Scotch Plains. “Still, we are seeing just a trickle of listings.”

In August, after an investigation into lending practices at five big banks, a state Supreme Court judge removed what had been a de facto moratorium on judicial approvals of foreclosures.

In some other states, banks are still in the process of “recertifying” their lending practices, after evidence of “robo-signing” and careless processing of loans came to light. In New Jersey, however, that is officially done and over. “We don’t know for sure why the banks continue to hold back” on foreclosure listings, Mr. Flagg said.

New Jersey has almost 30,000 homes stuck at different points in the foreclosure “pipeline,” according to court records. Their owners are months to years delinquent on mortgage payments, and lenders have gone to court, at least to begin proceedings to seize their properties, as is required in this state.

On average, the process was taking 708 days, or nearly two years, while the moratorium was in effect in New Jersey. After it lifted in August, new foreclosure filings did increase: there were 1,190, up from 859 in July. But that was a small rise when seen in context, said Jeffrey G. Otteau, the president of the Otteau Valuation Group in New Brunswick.

As of the end of August, there had been 68 percent fewer foreclosure filings than in the same period of 2010, with just 0.05 percent of homeowner households receiving a first-time notice of default. That equates to five foreclosure filing notices for every 1,000 homeowners.

So when will the foreclosure wave finally show up? “This situation,” Mr. Otteau wrote in an e-mail, “reminds me of the recent BP Gulf oil spill, where we were all waiting for the oil to hit the beaches,” and the quantities that did arrive were smaller than expected. “I’m still wondering where it went — probably sitting on the ocean floor in enormous pools of coagulation, much like the shadow inventory in the foreclosure markets.”

Eventually those failed loans will have to “rise to the surface,” Mr. Otteau said. He predicts that when foreclosures do start coming fast and furious, the impact will be highly uneven around the state — just as the pain is unevenly dispersed now.

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130 Responses to Come out, come out, wherever you are

  1. grim says:

    From the Courier Post:

    Union County bank among 3 shut

    The New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance closed First State Bank, Cranford, Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as receiver.

    First State Bank has headquarters in Cranford and a second branch in Westfield. Both will reopen on Saturday as branches of Northfield Bank and depositors of First State Bank will automatically become depositors of the Northfield Bank.

    First State Bank had approximately $204.4 million in total assets and $201.2 million in deposits.

  2. grim says:

    From the FDIC:

    Northfield Bank, Staten Island, New York, Assumes All of the Deposits of First State Bank, Cranford, New Jersey

    The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $45.8 million. Compared to other alternatives, Northfield Bank’s acquisition was the least costly resolution for the FDIC’s DIF. First State Bank is the 79th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in New Jersey. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was ISN Bank, Cherry Hill, on September 17, 2010.

  3. grim says:

    How can a bank in Cranford and Brigadoon lose $45 million?

  4. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Home prices could dip another 7%: Barclays

    Home prices could fall up to 7% by the end of the 2012 first quarter, Barclays Capital said Friday in a report to clients.

    Barclays also noted the worst-case scenario for a further home price collapse, where property value falls another 15 to 20% from current levels, is low.

    Fannie Mae’s recent survey of a sample pool of Americans found that most of those surveyed believe home prices will fall another 1.1% over the next year.

    Home prices recently experienced a minor decline.

    In August, home prices decreased 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, the first monthly decline in four months, according to CoreLogic.

  5. Confused in NJ says:

    Interesting!

  6. freedy says:

    the bank had friends of the board loans

  7. grim says:

    From Forbes:

    Buy That Dream House Now Or Wait Until Prices Fall Further?

    Is it time to buy that house we always wanted, or should we wait until prices fall further?

    As a financial planner, I’m often asked that question and it frustrates me to hear otherwise rational people talking about home ownership the way a speculator might talk about the price of gold. Nobody needs gold, but everyone needs a place to live.

    If you’ve found the house you love, you intend to make it your home for the long haul, and the financials add up, why would you wait?

    Talk about the collapse of real estate prices destroying the American Dream makes good headlines but it simply isn’t true. Yes, it may feel bad to know that the house you bought in 2006 has lost a big chunk of its market value. But if you can afford the mortgage payments and upkeep, you bought it intending to live there for a decade or more, and you leverage that asset to its best advantage as part of your financial portfolio, the state of the real estate market is irrelevant.

  8. Do not a lot of money to buy a house? Do not worry, because it is real to receive the home loans to work out such problems. Therefore get a car loan to buy everything you want.

  9. Should be an interesting day, as the stench of death blankets the planet.

  10. Mikeinwaiting says:

    The foreclosure pipeline is queuing up to take out next springs selling season. This should be the nail in the coffin, Oh wait another one.

  11. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot was thinking of quoting you when I wrote my last post, I was typing you were posting , perfect.

  12. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim my #9 in mod?

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (3) grim

    Easy. All the decisions were made by those crooks in cranford. If brigadoonians ran it, different result.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Administration kills CLASS portion of Obamacare. Could not certify sustainablity.

    Must have been “unexpected.”

  15. jamil says:

    14, their defense is incompetence, rather than dishonesty.
    Now who could have seen this coming? If we talk about throwing responsible people to jail, we should start with Congress and White House.

    ” In fact, the administration’s own CMS actuary said it would never work”

    “CLASS, which stood for Community Living Assistance Services and Supports, was a pet project of the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy. It was supposed to help Americans pay the cost of long-term care. During the health care debate in 2009 and 2010, Democrats claimed that the program would not only pay for itself but would actually reduce the federal budget deficit. At the time Obamacare passed, Democrats claimed the law overall would cut the deficit by $140 billion over the next ten years; about $70 billion of that was supposed to come from the CLASS Act.

    But even then, lawmakers of both parties knew that CLASS was unworkable. Democrats structured the program to collect premiums for years before beginning to pay out benefits — thus, it appeared to reduce the deficit when it would in fact greatly increase the deficit once it began making payments. As a voluntary program, it would become acutely unworkable if, as expected, only those in need of long term care signed up for it. Everyone knew that; during the Obamacare debate, Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad called CLASS “a Ponzi scheme of the first order, the kind of thing that Bernie Madoff would have been proud of.” Yet Conrad and all his fellow Democrats voted for Obamacare, including CLASS. ”

    http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gop-will-move-repeal-class-act

  16. jamil says:

    in unrelated news, Obama started a war (with US troops on ground) in Uganda on Friday. I’m sure it is of vital national interest, just like our war in Libya.

  17. Libtard at home says:

    Yes…as important as our war against the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Jamil, you are simply Barnum’s dream client.

  18. jamil says:

    17, Iraq war was supported and advocated by every leading dem (including Hillary, Bill, Biden, Al Gore), and the outcome of Iraq was certainly of national interest to US (as opposed to Libya, Uganda). And yes, it did have some WMDs, and certainly an active plan to develop them on mass scale so leave your whining to dailykos/nytimes forum.

  19. morpheus says:

    Jamil:
    Please shut the F**k up! God ,it is so tedious reading rant after rant from you. At least RE101 is entertaining.

  20. morpheus says:

    To the rest of this blog who still talk about real estate.

    House is under contract. Sailed through attorney review. Got the mortgage. Locked in rate at 4%. inspection is on Tuesday. Closing should be late november.

    Wanted to lock in the rate. Expect more shenaigans from congress in late nov when debt commission releases its findings and the tea party attempts to shut down the government. (now.. . .now….now…no value judgment here. I expect interest rates to rise again after they come to another last minute deal)

    Ok. . . . .on to the next jamil rant

  21. Libtard at home says:

    Morph,

    It’s a shame you couldn’t lock about 10 days ago, but really, in the grand scheme of things, it’s really peanuts. So did you hire Das uber Inspector? Congrats thought.

  22. Libtard at home says:

    Though. Damn sticky fingers.

    Man U blows by the way! How Henderson missed that header is beyond me. And Liverpool’s first goal, where the wall moved for him, makes me wonder if the fix was in. First, there was no penalty. Second the wall never moves. WTF?

  23. morpheus says:

    uber inspector is hired. rate was not really that much lower. more worried about rates rising. I realized Europe is shit and people are flocking to the “safety” of US treasuries. However, how much longer can that last? The last almost shutdown resulted in a credit downgrade. What happens next time?

    More importantly, progress is being made on the gun front. Wife wanted all guns stored in the basement but is warming up to the idea of the gun cabinet in the bedroom.

    After i finish trial next week, will have time to strip down and clean the shotgun and maybe take rifle and shotgun to the range.

  24. gary says:

    You guys are blasting jamil but why not make a compelling case from your side? The defense is always to go back to some republican administration’s fault and believe me, I’m not defending them. Bush was supposedly a buffon but this bullsh*t artist get’s a pass? Gimme a f*cking break, ok? This administration is beyond a f*cking disaster.

  25. Bocephus says:

    25. He’s run it like a centrist Republican. For the most part. Nothing progressive whatsoever. What’s the complaint?

  26. morpheus says:

    gary:
    Neither parties get a pass. Obama sucks. Bush sucked. Jamil just is a cheerleader for the GOP. Hell, I voted for Obama. However, nothing regarding the GOP slate of candidates appeals to me. excepting huntsman.

  27. Of the prez candidates, only Ron Paul gets it. That’s why the media and TPTB have put a virtual news blackout on him. If he picks up anything that even smells of momentum, the CIA will whack him.

  28. Too bad even disaffected youth and lowlifes are beginning to figure out the joke’s on us.

    This thing WILL reach critical mass. For that, I am excited.

  29. Barbara says:

    My problem with Ron Paul and his followers is that their method to all problems is a “let’s get back to what worked” approach. it’s a fantasy and like all fantasies, it has the convenience of never being put to the test built right in, so You get to never be wrong. In 1913, America was a backwater outpost and a joke to the rest of the west. Most were poor and uneducated, labor camps prevailed where agriculture did not. Robber Barons, Rockafellars, riots. Ron Paul is a fantasy.

  30. morpheus says:

    clot:
    S**t yes: I forgot about ron paul. Ok. I do like what he has to say. Too bad he will not be nominated. You can forget about mitt romney being nominated. no way evangelicals are going to vote for a morman.

    I Like the LDS approach to prepping.

  31. NjescaPee says:

    I think Barbara gets it. Ron Paul is a leader of kids with purple hoodies and 2 rolls of quarters in each pocket.

  32. babs (30)-

    One we take the societal rocket sled back to the 16th Century, people will kill to have our 1913 standard of living.

    Part of TPTB’s squelch of all things Paul is the fact that he openly acknowledges the pain to come. This doesn’t play well in a country where everybody was raised watching Very Special Episodes of Full House that ended in group hugs after 22.7 minutes.

  33. morph (31)-

    Yeah. And that Warren Jeffs guy is a real baller.

    “I Like the LDS approach to prepping.”

  34. BearsFan says:

    Paul is important because he is the only one who stresses sound money as the key to any successful future. I know many of you would shoot holes in that thought, which is fine, but I happen to believe it. I could care less about Paul’s overall political spectrum, and don’t agree with everything he touts….but, at this point in time, this moment, if this were a weighted quiz, Paul is the only one answering question A (worth 85/100) correct.

  35. Barbara says:

    Ron Paul is the new Noam Chomsky. Two sides of the political coin on paper, but on the street both appeal to the same angst riddled white suburban college sophomores who know better than their folks.

  36. Barbara says:

    I think Perot was more credible in message initially, but his wackodoo delivery, Larry King interviews and crazy enhancing appearance did him in. Nonetheless, 20 years out and he pretty much got it right in the crystal ball department.

  37. Barbara says:

    Clot/hobo if that’s the way it going to go, Ron Paul won’t be able to stop it. I’ve said it before on here, I think it’s all going to tank and we will go back to local economies. Hard times ahead will bring about the resourcefulness we have lost and our children or their children may enjoy a deeper and more meaningful existence. Of course I never rule out a meteor strike or Angry Jesus.

  38. Barbara says:

    Angst ridden even, I hate iPad autocorrect.

  39. yo says:

    Ross Perot was indeed right on his mind but was not able to convey his thoughts to the right audience

    Barbara says:
    October 15, 2011 at 3:57 pm
    I think Perot was more credible in message initially, but his wackodoo delivery, Larry King interviews and crazy enhancing appearance did him in. Nonetheless, 20 years out and he pretty much got it right in the crystal ball department.

  40. BearsFan says:

    Perot was right, circa 2010 – http://esrati.com/ross-perot-was-right/5403/

  41. yo says:

    Sad thing about it,what the 3rd world don’t want is what our leaders pushing through our throat

  42. Shore Guy says:

    Olly olly oxen free!

  43. Shore Guy says:

    “Ron Paul is a fantasy”

    To each his/her own. For my mental energy, I’ll take Sela Ward.

  44. Shore Guy says:

    “Bush was supposedly a buffon ”

    Bush was a buffon and a horrendous president, which should have made any successor look good. Think about just how awful the current guy is that he looks worse than the shrub. Heck, the Empty Suit in Chief makes Harding and Hoover look good.

  45. Shore Guy says:

    Brooklyn Hawk,

    If you are still lurking, what the heck is Turner Gill doing in Lawrence?

  46. NjescaPee says:

    Had my 5 glasses of wine. Who cares now? You guys needto try Santiagos bodega. Very nice. Mmmm

  47. jamil says:

    “Bush was a buffon and a horrendous president”

    Ok buffoon. Give specific examples. I agree that presciption drug bill was horrible buit it was supported by your side and your side wanted to make it even more expensive, so you can’t use that. Iraq war was heavily advocated by every leading Dem (maybe except H.Dean) so you can’t use that either. Let me guess: “Trampling civil rights, secret memos to allow torture/warrantless eavesdropping/attacking enemy” BS?

    Your president has been airraiding Afghan villages and killing civilians by the thousands. Seems to be legal according to your DOJ.
    FDR/Truman deliberately massacred hundreds of thousands of civilians. O’s DOJ lawers wrote secret memo stating that O can order warrantless murder of US citizens anytime, without any due process (or standard of proof as advocated guy named Holder during Bush years). Let’s be honest: Had Bush done that your head would have exploded in your live MSNBC show.

    Bush started wars, after getting authorization from Congress, including War Powers Act approval. O started wars in Libya (and now Uganda) without any congressional authorization (and do you think O asks Uganda authorization from Congress within 60 days?)

    O holds terror suspects at sea (in direct violation of law) so he can get around using Gitmo.

    As for eavesdropping: Current Pres is going beyond anything ever done (including recording calls to talk shows, and listening everything).

    Politicization of DOJ: Yeah, Bush asked US attorneys to resign. Now we have the New DOJ recruiting 300 far-left attorneys and zero non- far left attorneys. Openly advocating actions based on race (New Black Panthers, civil rights div etc).

    I’m sure you would feel familiar in O’s DOJ. You are nothing more than dishonest partisan hack. Did some conservative or Bush era official deny you a job or steal your girlfriend?

  48. babs (36)-

    By the time I was a soph in college, I’m pretty sure I hated Noam Chomsky.

  49. babs (38)-

    My call is still extinction before housing recovery.

  50. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I am so staying out of this.

  51. Juice Box says:

    NYPD getting ready to arrest thousands at Times Square , lots of children in the crowd too.

  52. NWNJHighlander says:

    Can we give credit to Otteau for coming up with a great analogy that didn’t use the words “perfect storm”? The Oil Spill analogy worked well in a short concise way, and was widely accessible to the intended audience.

    I sit here looking at the Republican Presidential field and just laugh, I can say only one thing with certainty… no matter who wins the 2012 Presidential Election, the country and the economy are going to be in worse condition come late 2012.

    Started looking for a house in NW New Jersey, I can pull a 4/2.5 on over an acre for under 250k here easily, downside being
    house 1) I have to remodel full interior
    house 2) Removal of oil tank, highest taxes
    house 3) Needs new exterior and kitchen/baths.

    house 4) is a gem, over 5 acres but only a 2/1. Hasn’t been updated in 50 years. The outbuildings for the horses are nicer than the house. I can’t figure anyway to do it without just placing a prefab on the foundation , I HATE THE HIGHLANDS ACT. So does everyone else who has looked at the house apparently, …

    I have no immediate need to buy a house though the interest rate situation is egging me on, “when everyone else is selling, it’s time to be buying”, If house prices drop less than 10% more then I’d do better locking in at under 4.15%…

  53. Al Mossberg says:

    9,

    The stench of death is a gross understatement to what I smell. Its far worse. Its all going to sh_t globally as planned. Only the fringe will keep their assets. There is a fine line between genious and insanity.

  54. Mikeinwaiting says:

    NWNJ remove oil tank under ground, you want to be on the hook for the cleanup? Run don’t walk away.

  55. Al Mossberg says:

    14,

    Nom,

    Re: Obamacare,

    The seniors are toast. Buy them a pine box if you are charitably inclined. They will die due to lack of access. All you 60 year olds better get in good with your Docs. They cant afford to treat you anymore.

  56. Al Mossberg says:

    24.

    Morph,

    Re: mortage

    I am of like mind. I play the mortgage scene simply as a game. For you its real business. My thoughts.

    1. Short term it looks like interest rates are >4% again. Pennies in the real scheme of things. When Greece defaults we could see 3.75 again. Remember Japan has been playing the QE game for 20 years. Their 30 year rates are 2 and change. No one wants to borrow though. Pushing on a string.

    Im locked in a 30 at 4.62. I’ve decided to opt out of the game. Im starting to pay the b_tch off. The hyperinflationary scenario will not allow me to pay it off entirely. Just enough to make my payments work for me.

    Mobile tabgible assets are the only thing that is safe long term.

    My 2 cents.

    Good luck

  57. Al Mossberg says:

    25,

    Gary,

    Re: politics,

    Its a lost cause. Americans are too stupid. They dont understand the issues. America needs to undo 100 years of maleducation. That aint going to happen over night. It will happen the hard way.

    Marxists think they are going to get some sort of utopia. Neocons think they can rule the world with a hammer. History teaches you everything you need to know. What the aforementioned will get is a tyrannical elite ruling over the poor. Individual liberty is the solution. If you dont get that then buy yourself a pine box.

  58. Al Mossberg says:

    28,

    Meat,

    They may call you crazy but you understand the issues and solutions. Lay back and let the doom wash over you. You know well that there are ways to profit from these extraordinary events.

  59. Al Mossberg says:

    Barbara,

    History teaches us that g_vernments are inherently evil. Why would you invest your future prosperity in such an enterprise. Shake off the brain washing. Have some confidence in the ability of the individual when freed from the schackles of tyranny.

  60. Al Mossberg says:

    38,

    Barbara,

    I think most of us agree that there will not be a political solution even if Ron Paul were elected. Dr. Paul’s legacy will be shaped by his warnings of what is to come. Yes, I agree, its going to collapse. I just want a guy in there that will protect my liberties when the inevitable collapse occurs. If the current trend continues we will surrender our sovreignty to the IMF/World Bank and eventually end up in a world war. The alternative is revolution. All scenarios are equally ugly and not to be wished for.

  61. Confused in NJ says:

    56.Al Mossberg says:
    October 15, 2011 at 9:38 pm
    14,

    Nom,

    Re: Obamacare,

    The seniors are toast. Buy them a pine box if you are charitably inclined. They will die due to lack of access. All you 60 year olds better get in good with your Docs. They cant afford to treat you anymore

    Interesting, most of my aquaintences who availed themselves of Modern Medical Care are Dead, the ones who avoided it are still alive. I go to the doctor for a strep throat to get an old antibiotic. Outside of that I avoid them. Any medications created after 1970 are questionable. Surgery on the other hand has improved. Chemotherapy should be buried with it’s father Josef Mengle.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Al – “maleducation”. Yes it’t too late and now shades of 33 are coming, currency revaluation and gold window reopening. Don’t worry inflation raises most boats. Just need to survive this downturn is what I have been telling the uneducated. Work, pay down the debt and most of all chin up. Those that know need to be leaders now more than ever.

  63. Barbara says:

    Al mossberg, The US Constitution was drafted by committee, not by The People.

  64. Juice Box says:

    Barbara – the semantics make no difference the youth will riot. We are getting close to showing the world again why we are free, and more importantly why we lead. Time to be leaders again I say. I am not angry at the current events, some of us here knew this would happen. The solution is simple, shared sacrifice. While the Jamils of the world will rage, the rest which are the sensible will come up with a real solution. I know that the solution is at hand. The crux is getting the population to swallow it.

  65. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, Grim. Here is a topic for you:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/realestate/rents-in-manhattan-rebound-to-record-highs.html

    “The Lease Is Up, and Now, So Is the Rent”

    Several factors are conspiring to keep rents high, brokers and real estate analysts said, citing the virtual disappearance of any incentives, a vacancy rate in Manhattan that is hovering around 1 percent, and a shortage of new developments on the horizon.

    “Over the past year, the market has gotten stronger, stronger and stronger,” said Daria Salusbury, the national head of leasing for Related, which owns and operates 18 buildings in New York City with a total of 5,000 tenants. “Over the past few months, we are exceeding our 2007 rents.”

    Prices are rising all across Manhattan and for all kinds of apartments. In traditionally strong neighborhoods like Greenwich Village, TriBeCa and SoHo, rents are up 13 percent since September 2008, according to a survey of 10,000 apartments priced under $10,000 a month by the real estate firm MNS. And even in areas like Harlem, where the real estate slump was keenly felt, rents also jumped 13 percent.

    Over all, the average rental price for a Manhattan apartment in September was $3,331, according to data compiled for The New York Times by Citi Habitats. Last year at the same time it was $3,131, and in 2009 it was $3,013.

    In the past year the increase has been especially sharp. In TriBeCa, for example, a one-bedroom in a doorman building averages $4,635, compared with $3,937 last September, and a similar apartment in Harlem is now $2,398, up from $1,786 last year, Citi Habitats found.

    “To put it simply,” said Gary L. Malin, the president of Citi Habitats, “there has been a lot of interest in the rental market this year, and there just has not been that much inventory.” Manhattan’s vacancy rate last month was 1.08 percent, compared with 1.83 percent in 2009 and just 0.83 percent in 2006, according to his company. Brokers say the greatest demand is for larger apartments, two-bedrooms and up.

    The average rent for a two-bedroom in a nondoorman building is now $4,137, up from $3,560 last September, according to the MNS survey. In doorman buildings, the average rent for a two-bedroom is $5,857, compared with $5,321 a year ago
    snip

  66. chicagofinance says:

    You sound like Bobby Knight.

    Al Mossberg says:
    October 15, 2011 at 9:57 pm
    28,

    Meat,

    They may call you crazy but you understand the issues and solutions. Lay back and let the doom wash over you. You know well that there are ways to profit from these extraordinary events.

  67. chicagofinance says:

    I’ll be honest with you….there is a time and place for everything…..right now this country needs a good dose of this…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw7KijRfU-c

  68. Juice Box says:

    Chi- Kids today have no idea who Bobby was, might as well dig up Knute.

  69. Al Mossberg says:

    Babs,
    You are eating out of the Marxist cereal box again. Successful folks like me arent going to sit around while the hippies figure out a way to loot our earnings. We are going to fund the people that beat hippies heads in with night sticks. People are always going to protect their interests. Myself included.

    Juice,

    I suspect you over estimate the American people. It will collapse and all those dependent on g_v will go along with it. Think 1970’s -80’s NYC on a national scale. Get mobile. You can always come back when the dust settles. No need to get your hands dirty.

  70. Bocephus says:

    70. what a moron.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Another potential topic with implications for RE:

    Analysis: Is a winter of discontent on the way?

    LONDON (Reuters)- With the “Occupy Wall Street” movement going global and Middle East unrest stirring again, an autumn and winter of discontent looks increasingly likely.

    In the corridors of Whitehall, Washington, think tanks and even investment banks, there are dark murmurs that the events of the year so far may only be the beginning.

    Some fear the world faces a systemic rise in anger, protest and political volatility that could last years or even decades.

    In many countries, a young social media-connected generation is losing faith in traditional structures of government and business, arguing it has been betrayed and denied opportunity.

    In the developed world, the wider middle class fears its prosperity has evaporated, demanding someone be held accountable and the global elite find a way of delivering growth once more.

    “This could be with us for a long time,” said Jack Goldstone, professor of public policy at George Mason University in Washington D.C. and an expert in demographics
    snip

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/16/us-protests-global-idUSTRE79F1CH20111016

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    So what’s with the Exit Realty person who went postal and offed his co-worker?

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/10/2_dead_in_mountain_lakes_shoot.html

    I saw the photo, it wasn’t clot.

    I think I am gonna tone down the rhetoric for awhile. 5 bucks says that Grim gets a subpoena to see if this flake was a regular here.

  73. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    What is the deal with the Gator football team this year?

  74. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [72] shore,

    I think an analysis of the 60’s counterculture movement is instructive. There seem to be a lot of parallels, however this group is not very far along compared to their grandparents.

    If history is a guide, it will succumb to market forces. Jerry Rubin got heavy into real estate and discovered the joys of capitalism. Abby Hoffman became a joke, living on his reputation and eating by doing chew-and-screws on restaurants. I actually saw him do this a few weeks before he kicked the bucket.

    My greatest fear from the OWS movement will be its influence on pop culture and the the dire threat that disco may rise from the grave.

  75. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I know little about that shooting but, based on so many shootings where a guy goes into an office and shoots a woman (and others who just happen to be there), I would lay money on it that it was a domestic dispute of some sort: Divorce, estrangement, rebuffed advsncers, etc.

  76. Shore Guy says:

    “chew-and-screws ”

    Is that like a dine-and-dash or is it more in the realm of John?

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [70] mossberg

    ” Successful folks like me arent going to sit around while the hippies figure out a way to loot our earnings.”

    We are already well into a diaspora, and it will only become a larger flow. Not just citizens but capital. FDI is off, but more importantly, domestic investment is off (in fact, FDI is not off as much because foreigners actually have more protection from c0nfisc@tory governments than domestic investors). If those city councillors that are threatening Brookfield had any foresight, they’d be worried about their ability to fleece a class that has left the city.

    And when I was ruminating on this topic last night, I could not help but notice how much the anarchist and OWS protests resemble, at times, the Kristallnacht. Even the motivations of some are eerily similar. Only thing missing is the word “Juden.”

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [77] shore

    same thing. That is just the Boston-area term for it.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] shore

    Rebuffed advances came to mind, or perhaps job action. I only know what is in the paper. Also, guy was 39 and lived with Mom in a second floor walkup. Also described as “quiet, kept to himself” which is pretty much the profile, isn’t it.

    That’s how everyone knows I’m safe. No one has ever accused me of being quiet.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Meat,

    My 8YO’s game is in Bridgewater today at the Middle School. In scrimmage yesterday versus the U1o team, one of the older girls shoved mine in the back. She was pretty indignant about it, but I pointed out that this happens, and that soccer is a contact sport. Later in a separate drill with teammates, she got into the tacking in a big way, and the shoving and holding got intense. One block she threw would have earned a clipping flag in football. So she is starting to grow a set; hopefully that translates into some big time tackles on the field today.

    She’ll need the attitude, too. We have Livingston in two weeks, and their u9 team has a reputation for playing rough and dirty. They totally trashed the team we are playing today, which is supposed to be pretty good. Guess I will have to help her on tackling drills a bit more so she toughens up.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    The 1930s Sure Sound Familiar

    By JOE NOCERA

    Not long ago, someone suggested that I read “Since Yesterday,” a book by Frederick Lewis Allen, a popular historian of the 1930s and 1940s. Published in 1940, it turned out to be a shrewd, concise, wonderfully written account of America in the ’30s.

    It also turned out to be something else: a reminder of why history matters. It is impossible to read “Since Yesterday” without reflecting, again and again, on the parallels between then and now. The Great Depression, of course, dominates the book — and is far worse than anything we’ve been through. Still, when Allen writes about Ivar Kreuger, the industrialist who built an empire that some considered a Ponzi scheme, you instantly think of Bernie Madoff. The country’s fixation with the Lindbergh kidnapping seems strikingly similar to the country’s fixation with Casey Anthony.

    And when Allen describes “Hooverville” — a large encampment of war veterans demanding promised bonus payments — Occupy Wall Street springs to mind. The veterans, who had gathered in a park near the Capitol, were treated well at first, but were eventually routed by the Army in a brutal show of force.

    In “Since Yesterday,” bankers are vilified; homes are foreclosed on; people desperately search for work — just like today. Businessmen speak of the need for “confidence,” a word that “enters the vocabulary only when confidence is lacking.” Elsewhere Allen writes, “No longer were vital economic decisions made at international conferences of bankers; now they were made only by the political leaders of states.”

    Allen makes the surprising point that, while small business suffered terribly during the Great Depression, big corporations did well. When large companies needed to lay off workers to maintain profitability, they did so ruthlessly. Bursts of economic growth, however, were rarely accompanied by an increase in employment. Why? Because new technology allowed companies to increase productivity at the expense of workers. Just like today.
    snip

  82. Shore Guy says:

    How California Drives Away Jobs and Business

    The Golden State continues to incubate cutting-edge companies in Silicon Valley, but then the successful firms expand elsewhere to avoid the state’s tax and other burdens.

    California has long been among America’s most extensive taxers and regulators of business. But it had assets that seemed to offset its economic disincentives: a sunny climate, a world-class public university system that produced a talented local work force, sturdy infrastructure that often made doing business easier, and a record of spawning innovative companies.

    No more. In surveys, executives regularly call California one of the country’s most toxic business environments, while the state has become an easy target for economic development officials from other states looking to lure firms away.

    In a 2004 survey of California executives by the consulting firm Bain & Company, half said they planned to halt job growth within the state. By 2011, according to a poll by a California coalition of businesses and industries, 84% of executives and owners said that if they weren’t already in the state, they wouldn’t consider starting up there, while 64% said the main reason they stayed was the difficulty of relocating their particular kind of business. For several years in a row, California has ranked dead last in Chief Executive magazine’s poll about states’ business environments.
    snip

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576594890367486316.html

  83. House Whine says:

    81- Where is the soccer ref in all this melee?

  84. Shore Guy says:

    It is about time. These cats who told me and others we were going to hell if we ate meat on Friday or thought normal thoughts about the girls in our classes have gotten away with too many crimes for too long:

    (Reuters) – The first indictment of a bishop for failing to report child p0rn0graphy would have been groundbreaking in itself but legal experts say a second charge — against the diocese — is almost as rare.

    Bishop Robert Finn of the Catholic Diocese of Kansas City-St. Joseph appeared in court on Friday on one count of failure to report child abuse. Prosecutors in Jackson County, Missouri, alleged Finn knew in December 2010 about hundreds of photos of children on Reverend Shawn Ratigan’s laptop but did not notify authorities for five months.
    snip

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/16/us-usa-crime-bishop-idUSTRE79F0UF20111016

  85. Juice Box says:

    This is better than a free toaster. This will not end well.

    Chinese banks fight for deposits

    Chinese banks are now in an increasingly heated battle for deposits after repeated lifts of the bank reserve requirement this year while the country’s unrelenting loan-to-deposit cap also send lenders into a wild scramble for more money.

    A bank president in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, obviously has become a casualty in this money hunting game, according to 21st Business Herald newspaper.

    The president was sacked one day after he sent out short messages to all of his depositors last Thursday, which promised that starting Friday, his bank would offer anyone cash bonus of up to 5,000 yuan (US$773) as long as they were willing to put more money at the bank, the newspaper said.

    “The more you deposit, the more bonus you will get,” the newspaper cited the message as saying, without revealing the name of the president or which bank he was serving.

    The unconventional incentive, coupled with rising daily deposit rate by lenders, were in fact a desperate move by banks which are now in urgent need of money to ease their liquidity pressure amid record high bank reserve requirement ratio.

    China’s bank reserve requirements ratio, the amount of money that lenders must keep in reserve, is now at a record of 21.5 percent after six hikes alone this year, which frozen 370 billion yuan in the latest raise on June 20.

    China also raised interest rates two times this year, which means higher costs for banks.

  86. jamil says:

    84

    OWS has been officially endorded by American Nazi Party and American Communist Party (as well as leading members of Democratic Party).

    One of the key organizers (along with Obama’s Organizing for America) created the famous “Jew Watch” list in 2004.

    http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/2011/10/13/anti-semitic-ows/

    oh, and this nice lady, Patricia McAllister from Los Angeles Unified School District, is rambling about the jews. Isn’t that charming?
    http://reason.com/blog/2011/10/14/anti-semitic-protester-at-occu
    I think that the Zionist Jews, who are running these big banks and our Federal Reserve, which is not run by the federal government… they need to be run out of this country,” she said”

    Well, maybe ACORN and Obama can work out some exhange program to import illegals and deport the Jews (and Christians and conservatives).

  87. Barbara says:

    Jamil,
    Read Nat Hentoff. That is all.

  88. Juice Box says:

    Jamil, you forgot about these Hippies.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/25976845@N06/6221653715/

  89. Shore Guy says:

    How long do the folks here think it will take the Chinese Government to execute bankers if they crash the economy due to wrongdoing?

  90. Shore Guy says:

    I suspect it will take about as long as it takes a neutrino to travel from CERN to Rome.

  91. jamil says:

    Juice

    Check pics of clueless jews from moscow circa 1918 and munich in 1930. Too bad you can’t ask them anymore

    Glad that patricia, american nazi party and others do not concern you

  92. grim says:

    Can I get a vote on banning Jamil?

  93. Shore Guy says:

    Unless someone engages in malicious attacks on other posters (or you), engages in illegal activity, or chews up bandwith with improper activities, I suggest that you not ban them. Even idiotic on-topic posts serve to remind the rest of the people reading the blog that there are others out in society — who vote and may influence policy makers — who are disconnected from relity, as most of the rest of us here see it. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day; the other times, it reminds us of the importance of running clocks.

    To me, Jamil serves as a reminder of how not to behave.

  94. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of RE, the “leaders” in Asbury want to kill the only international draw the city still has:

    STONE PONY AS WE KNOW IT FACING FAMILIAR THREAT
    Despite the slumping economy, Asbury Park master developer iStar Financial has plans to resume its oceanfront redevelopment schedule in the near future, and once again, the Stone Pony is in jeopardy.

    Hopes were high that the historic venue would stay put when a planned relocation was put on hold several years back, and owners Madison Marquette have since invested significant time and money on structural improvements of the historic building.

    But the Pony and surrounding block sit squarely in the redevelopment zone, and the Asbury Park Press recently reported that iStar is already moving on plans to build townhouses at the nearby intersection of Kingsley Street and Asbury Avenue. With the current plan calling for yet more condominium development along the Ocean Avenue corridor, iStar is looking to relocate the Stone Pony southward to a revamped Casino, where, surrounded by high-end retail and restaurants, it would be refashioned as a sort of “Hard Rock by the sea.”

    The move has not been finalized, and the city is still accepting input from the public; email the planning board at asburyplanning@gmail.com to voice your opinion.

  95. Shore Guy says:

    Here is a better link. The other one freezes.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8accBfnvilQ

  96. Juice Box says:

    Jamil just serves to remind people that Limbaugh actually has a following, and how he is a just a parrot of disinformation campaigns. Jamil better get together with the rest of the Limbaugh followers and work on some new talking points. This latest effort to define this occupy movement as anti-Semitic illustrates how low some people are willing to go in order to destroy this movement. I have no doubt it is going to become very very ugly from here on in.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    I don’t know who this guy is but, he sure is underwater:

    “because he owes more than $4.4 million to SunTrust Bank, “Rush Hour” star Chris Tucker could lose his $6 million mansion in central Florida.

    The IRS imposed an $11.5 million lien on his home last year in an effort to collect federal income taxes. And to make matters worse – the property’s assess value is $1.6 million. ”

    snip

    http://bestplaces.nydailynews.com/galleries/homeless-celebs-stars-face-foreclosure

  98. Shore Guy says:

    From that same article, it looks like Nicholas Cage is qualified to become a member of B.O.’s economic team:

    Nic Cage is no stranger to foreclosure. Even though he’s one of Hollywood’s highest-paid stars, the actor’s gaudy Bel-Air mansion was put up in a foreclosure auction – and initially didn’t have any takers. The Los Angeles Times reports it sold for $10.5 million in 2010 – there were loans totaling $18 million on the property. Cage lost two New Orleans homes to foreclosure and a Las Vegas home that went into foreclosure sold in 2010 for about half the price he bought it for ($8.5 million), according to Zillow.

  99. 3b says:

    #30 Barbara: A backwater in 1913??? It had problems, but a joke to the rest of the world?? And yet Europeans were still flooding into this country from all over Europe. Talk about a backwater!!! Europe was still running around with Kings and Queens and Czars and Archdukes. And these so called educated Europeans one year later in 1914 unleashed the horrors of WW I, and slaugthered millions.

  100. Shadow of Clot says:

    “Europe was still running around with Kings and Queens and Czars and Archdukes. And these … unleashed the horrors of WW I, and slaugthered millions.”

    Embrace the oblivion.

  101. nj escapee says:

    grim, I don’t think jamil’s posts are harmful. some of them are kinda funny in weird way. Like I speculated before he just might be a closet lib.

  102. relo says:

    Umm, you guys still read Jamil’s posts?

  103. Shore Guy says:

    Why would anyone pay to attend this place?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/education/17stjohn.html

    ANNAPOLIS, Md. — Sarah Benson last encountered college mathematics 20 years ago in an undergraduate algebra class. Her sole experience teaching math came in the second grade, when the first graders needed help with their minuses.
    And yet Ms. Benson, with a Ph.D. in art history and a master’s degree in comparative literature, stood at the chalkboard drawing parallelograms, constructing angles and otherwise dismembering Euclid’s Proposition 32 the way a biology professor might treat a water frog. Her students cared little about her inexperience. As for her employers, they did not mind, either: they had asked her to teach formal geometry expressly because it was a subject about which she knew very little.

    It was just another day here at St. John’s College, whose distinctiveness goes far beyond its curriculum of great works: Aeschylus and Aristotle, Bacon and Bach. As much of academia fractures into ever more specific disciplines, this tiny college still expects — in fact, requires — its professors to teach almost every subject, leveraging ignorance as much as expertise.

    snip

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Grim,

    His style isn’t mine but his political observations are grounded in fact, and there are other equally caustic contributors here.

    I just wish he didn’t tee off on those that share more of his views than is apparent. But that goes to style, I guess.

  105. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Quel surprise.

    Snooki is aiding and abeting tax evasion.

    http://www.treasury.gov/tigta/auditreports/2011reports/201140115fr.pdf

  106. Libtard at home says:

    I too think Jamil should not be banned. I’d rather he be bungee corded from his scrotum and dangled above Zuccotti Park.

  107. Libtard at home says:

    Nom,

    “His style isn’t mine but his political observations are grounded in fact, and there are other equally caustic contributors here.”

    I agree that many of Jamil’s points are grounded in fact. Though the real issue is that so are the political talking points from the other side. Both parties exhibit deplorable behavior in their effort to maintain power and their voting base. My issue with Jamil is that he is ignorant of this fact. Plus, there are few here interested in his political rhetoric. There are plenty of places on the internet to go to cheer lead for either corrupt party. I think this is why Grim is considering a ban on him. Personally, I wouldn’t ban Jamil from posting. I would simply ask him to tone down the politics. Of course, this is not possible for him. I’ve seen many others like him. They become so completely consumed with the propaganda. Just as a young German, Serb or any other fundamentalist could become so absorbed in the rhetoric to actually participate in ethnic cleansing as a solution to their groups economic woes. This is why I say that one day Jamil will thank the few of us for pointing out this flaw. I know that if I chose to waste so many countless hours absorbed in something that really has no benefit to me, I would feel pretty stupid. I just hope and pray that Jamil doesn’t go postal one day.

  108. joyce says:

    117

    Hear, hear

  109. chicagofinance says:

    I cast one vote for this…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_wYlyNlU6M

  110. Barbara says:

    107. 3b point is, we were not a world leader, just an outpost for the poor huddled masses. There’s a reason American artists and writers of note during that era did receive any attention until they moved to Europe. There’s also a reason our best scientists were imported (for them, to escape war, for us, because we couldn’t grow our own.) WW1, sure but over here we conducted state sanctioned lynchings and wrapped up a genocide of our own. The turn of the century was also the beginnings of Christian Fundamentalism, a strictly American invention in response to freed slaves and the liberal politics that brought that about. I don’t think Ron Paul’s 1913 ever existed and I’m tired of watching nostalgia’s thick and distorting film “inform” popular political thought and opinions and ultimately, policy.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    Is Wantan/ BC still around?

  112. chicagofinance says:

    From Bloomberg….hmmmm

    (Just as an aside, Adbusters is a Canadian nonprofit magazine and website that is generally credited with getting the Occupy Wall Street ball rolling and best known for a 2004 anti- Semitic essay.)
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-17/occupy-wall-street-loves-capitalism-s-pearls-commentary-by-william-cohan.html

  113. Shore Guy says:

    I was reading an article about Harlem real estate and came across this odd little paragraph:

    “Mr. Durst admitted killing a 71-year-old neighbor in Texas in 2001 and dumping his dismembered body in Galveston Bay, but was acquitted of homicide charges after asserting he acted in self-defense.”

    Whatever his lawyer charged, it was too little.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576631430935802762.html?mod=new_york_newsreel

  114. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (117) lib

    Okay too many words for so late.

    And loud, originated people don’t go postal.

  115. Alexander says:

    Super post! Just like your blog professionalism! Keep up the good work.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Argh. S/b opinionated. Friggin Android.

  117. I like when you discuss this kind of things inside your blog. Possibly could you continue to do this?

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