No big price drops at the shore?

From the Philly Inquirer:

At the Shore, many homes retained value after a wild ride

If you have the money – and that means cash – you can buy your dream house at the Jersey Shore. If you don’t, as a prospective vacation-home owner you’re being squeezed even harder by the same financial institutions that tightened credit for purchases of primary residences.

The higher the price, “the greater the likelihood the buyer is paying cash for the property,” said Paul Leiser of Avalon Realty. “A $7 million sale is far more likely to be a cash deal than a $1 million sale.”

Like many places these days, Avalon, long a seaside favorite of the well-to-do, isn’t seeing a lot of home sales, period. But those that have occurred have been high enough in value to push the median price up 321 percent since 2005, an Econsult Corp. analysis of transactions in 13 Shore zip codes in Atlantic and Cape May Counties from April 1, 2005, through June 30, 2011, shows.

In comparison, the median price in high-end Stone Harbor is up a modest 87 percent, according to the analysis, conducted by Econsult vice president Kevin Gillen along with a broad examination of home prices in the eight-county Philadelphia region based on 376,257 sales in that period.

any Shore points that are traditional vacation destinations for Philadelphia-area residents did not fare all that badly in the housing downturn, the analysis showed, with one caveat:

Though almost all the communities retained the value they had in 2005, Stone Harbor alone consistently held onto median-price gains – from 2005 through 2007, when the U.S. housing bubble burst, then through to June 30 of this year.

Avalon’s median price rose 437 percent between 2005 and 2007, for example, then ebbed 22 percent by June 30.

Longport’s median price rose 16 percent from 2005 to 2007, then fell 21 percent from 2007 to second-quarter 2011, for a loss of 9 percent over the full analysis period.

A lot of developers and marginal buyers had banked on price appreciation in Wildwood zip code 08260, which also includes North Wildwood and Wildwood Crest. But the median price there rose just 2 percent from 2005 to 2007 – from $330,000 to $334,975 – then fell 34 percent from 2007 to second-quarter 2011, ending up at $222,375.

Many Wildwood developers were forced to abandon projects. Others brought in auction companies to try to reset the market and sell enough condos to stay ahead of foreclosure actions.

Sea Isle City’s median home price rose 27 percent from 2005 to 2007, on the other hand, then fall 9 percent from 2007 to second-quarter 2011. But at $571,250, it was still 15 percent higher than in 2005.

In Atlantic City, heavily dependent on the now-flagging casino industry, the median price began a precipitous decline in 2005, as prices just about everywhere else were performing spectacularly.

By second-quarter 2011, the median price had lost 53 percent of its 2005 value, plummeting from $269,000 to $125,250.

Although conditions vary substantially, the U.S. second-home market “is at bottom,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., of West Chester.

“I don’t expect second-home sales and prices to improve much in the next year – the market will remain at bottom – but I do expect the second-home market to be a strong market over the next five to 10 years,” Zandi said. “There is a strong demographic tailwind behind the market, given the aging of the large baby-boom generation into their 50s and 60s, when second-home buying is strongest.”

Yet two Atlantic City bedroom communities – Brigantine and Margate – did not take as big a hit as might have been expected, even though the casinos shed thousands of employees who lived in those towns as the tanking economy and competition from other states took a toll.

Brigantine’s second-quarter 2011 median price, $292,250, is just 1 percent below what it was in 2005, though those who bought at the height of the market – when prices were 36 percent higher than in 2005 – saw values tumble 28 percent.

Margate’s median as of June 30, $393,150, was 12 percent lower than 2005 and 20 percent – more than $100,000 – below the 2007 median price of $491,250.

Bottom line: Longtime Shore homeowners came through the housing bust better than those who bought during the boom.

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118 Responses to No big price drops at the shore?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Manhattan rents continue to rise

    Rents in Manhattan rose in the third quarter even though new lease levels slipped slightly for the period, according to the latest Elliman Report.

    The Elliman Report, which surveys New York City rental prices quarterly, reported Friday that rents for 3Q rose after considerable concessions were made. New leases are high, but still fell a bit from the previous quarter while inventory listings also dropped.

    The high-end of the market saw price increases, while the available supply of units fell. And in many situations, those pondering rentals over full acquisitions are now favoring the buy-side of the equation, the report concluded.

  3. Mike says:

    There’s plenty of homes to choose from in Toms River (1558 to be exact)

  4. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Realtor killed co-worker, then was shot dead by police in Mtn. Lakes

    A Mountain Lakes Realtor was identified Saturday by authorities as the man who fatally shot his female co-worker late Friday afternoon, made a 911 call threatening more violence, and then was killed by police after firing three rounds at them.

    Leonardo Parera, 39, of Kearny killed Christine King, 47, of Jefferson, a receptionist at Exit Realty Gold Service in Mountain Lakes, by shooting her multiple times, Morris County Prosecutor Robert Bianchi said during a news conference held near the site of the shooting.

    Bianchi said Parera made a 911 call after killing King and threatened to shoot anyone who approached him as workers in the building hid and barricaded themselves behind doors. He declined to comment on a possible motive but said police are investigating what kind of relationship Parera had with King.

    Bianchi said he didn’t know how many rounds were fired at Parera but that officers “feared for their lives” after he shot at them as they approached him in his car, and were justified in firing back. He said one round fired by Parera came close to hitting an officer. Witnesses in nearby buildings said they heard dozens of rounds fired after dozens of police officers armed with rifles and other weapons walked toward the rear of the building.

    “They returned fire only when they were fired upon,” Bianchi said. “There were a number of rounds fired by a number of officers. … These officers were completely justified.”

  5. Shore Guy says:

    Unicorns love salt water.

  6. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (5) shore

    So do shore guys

  7. 3B says:

    There is a strong demographic tailwind behind the market, given the aging of the large baby-boom generation into their 50s and 60s, when second-home buying is strongest.”

    Is this the same 50 ‘s and 60’s that are paying college tuitions, who already have HELOC’d housses that have fallen in value, along with layoffs other financial issues? Or are these the 50s /60’s who are just starting families, or are starting their second families? Just saying.

  8. 3B says:

    Regarding the OWS protest, it may be many things, but anti Semitic? Not from what I have seen, and I am right across the street from it. In fact one day there was ONE guy there with ONE poster, and a crowd of about 50 of these kids gathered around him shouted him down, and said he was not with them did not represent them, and was not reflective of their movement.

  9. Deborah says:

    3B I was thinking the same thing…counting on people in their 50s/60s to rescue this housing market (by buying second homes, no less!) is totally delusional…many of these folks have lost jobs, if they’ve found new ones they’re at much lower pay levels, their retirement funds and first homes are not worth what they once were, many have babies or small children, if they have older children they’re being raped by college tuition or loans, their health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs are out of control…this is the group that’s gonna be buying overpriced second homes in the next few years? i don’t think so…

  10. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I almost hesitate to post this, and do so without comment, except to note that this is a real estate, politics, and economics blog. And people seem to like the tax stuff.

    http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2011/barack-obamas-other-billionaire-how-george-kaiser-turned-oklahom/

  11. 3B says:

    #9 Exactly Deborah. This guy Zandi is a either totally clueless, or a clown. Does he actually read his nonsense before it is published.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Mass OT Alert:

    Some thoughtful rebuttal to the candidate for Handicapper General:

    ” Prof. Warren is a candidate for a federal office, but almost all of the things she lauded are the result of local taxes. Roads, schools, police and fire: these are all mostly paid for by local taxes, which are, by the way, constitutional and supported in theory by almost all people. So, she is fighting against a classic straw man: almost nobody, including me, is saying that government should not help pay for roads, schools, police and fire on the local level. And, by the way, Madison and Jefferson would have no problem with local and state governments paying for such things, and this is exactly the America they imagined in the future.

    Their concern was a massive central federal government in which a majority would force a minority to pay for things like endless wars and the forced redistribution of wealth.

    And even Prof. Warren admits that factory owners should be able to “keep a hunk of it.” Well, how generous of her! So, how do we arrive at what a “fair” hunk is without going down the logical road to slavery as described above? it is literally impossible.”

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And a comment had a gasser of a take on “fairness”:

    “Let’s look at another hypothetical fairness issue:

    Some kids get 4.0 GPAs, while others barely rate a 2.0. Fairness says that the kids with the 4.0 should give some of their high score to those without. Two kids could have a 3.0 if the one with the perfect score were to just share one point.

    Or in sharing his 4.0 with 3 others with 2.0, they each could each have a 2.5, which fairly lifts all boats. Do you think Elizabeth Warren would have happily shared her high college scores with those that partied and barely squeaked by? Of course, if she ended up with a 2.5 GPA after sharing her “excess” GPA points with others, do you think she would have had the opportunities in life that has her where she now is?

    Would you want to hire someone with a 3.0 GPA, if you didn’t know for sure if that person earned the entire score by him/herself?”

    Interestingly, there are a few “elite” colleges and law schools that seem to operate in just this fashion. Hampshire College doesn’t grade. Neither does Yale Law, and NYU’s recruitment policy, which randomly assigns students to interviews.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [8] 3b

    At the risk of perpetuating this pointless thread, the anti-semitism is out there on the web, and it seems to be more prevalent than I suspected. I don’t doubt that anti-semites are avoiding Zuccotti Square; I would too, if I were them.

  15. 3B says:

    Real estate question. It has been a while since I owned a house. How much typically is home owners insurance these days?

  16. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Finally, for now, an analysis of Prop 13; that I don’t necessarily agree with, but it does raise important issues.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-17/california-diminished-by-1978-tax-revolt-shows-u-s-in-decline.html

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    3b,

    It is based on valuation. One thing to remember is that you pay a percentage on the value, but the value includes land. Now that won’t burn down in a fire, so you may want to opt for a lower value in order to not overpay. But to protect yourself completely, you want a replacement policy, and that will cost more.

    In the brig, I think I am paying about 1,200. Will have to check.

  18. Juice Box says:

    3B – – Abercrombie & Fitch closing 50 stores this year and another 60 more next year

  19. 3B says:

    #18 Com Thanks for the information. I was paying around $800.00 or so when I last owned. I was figuring around a grand.

  20. 3B says:

    #19 Juice: Wow I thought they were still one of the so called hot trendy stores. Maybe they will finally get rid of those jokish shopping bags. I saw something last week where Gap is closing a bunch of stores,a nd shrinking the size of most of their Old Navy stores.

  21. Harley says:

    probable your things in an opposite directio hither and thither it T one in the family way recompense drops at the shoar? | Unused Jersey Positive Conditio rank

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I see three current and two future influence on the trend in retail to close stores:

    1. internet market share growing
    2. lower consumer spending currently.
    3. Increased taxes and expenses
    4. Future demand not expected to recover
    5. Even more tax, regulation, and labor cost issues in the future.

    Essentially, the retailers have looked into their crystal balls, and said that they can maintain brand loyalty with fewer stores, and fewer stores cost less. It is also an acknowledgement that not only have they hit the maximiization point and entered the realm of the Law of Diminishing Returns, but that the maximization point has actually been pushed back.

    So even those businesses that are not expanding suddenly find themselves past the maximization point and don’t see that point moving forward anytime soon, especially since they see their costs only going higher.

    My $0.02.

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  24. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Chi Fi,

    What do you think of Alerian? Essentially an ETF that invests in MLPs.

  25. JJ says:

    Considering must kids with high GPAs cheat why the big deal if they share GPAs.

  26. Juice Box says:

    Nom – you can find lots of anti-anything on the internet, there are 1.6 Billion Muslim voices in the world and 1.2 Billion Catholics, more and more are connected to the Net and each has some thing to say. Perhaps there are a million neo-Nazi’s with Internet websites too. Most people are very gullible to what they read on the internet or hear in the MSM. Mainstream Shock Jock Limbaugh went out of his way recently to say that the 99% that are against TOP 1% earners must be against the American Jews since they make up about 1.7% of the US population so therefore the 99% are actually against them and the 99% is some kind of secret code.

    Real lowdown stuff is coming during this election season, Jamil is already trying to say the Democrats are the Brown Shirts when we all know which bunch of morons will be first to start crap.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhozx819izU

  27. california dreamin' says:

    Prices holding up at the Jersey Shore? THey seem to be holding in cali shore too.
    however no chance of lasting.

    La Jolla’s House of pain

    http://caliscreaming.com
    Real Estate,Tulips and the Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

  28. grim says:

    Retailers with big brick and mortar footprints will always be at a disadvantage against online retailers with minimal tax nexus.

    Not paying sales tax is one of the major reasons I make large purchases online, with a discount e-tailer that doesn’t have nexus in Jersey.

    Brick and mortars should be pushing hard for an Internet sales tax.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    3B: I have no doubt it is in there…..the point is that many participants are so informal in their approach that they casually overlook what they don’t want to see. Of course in NYC (i.e. hymietown) any such rhetoric is going to be tamped down signifcantly as a good chunk of participants are of the tribe themselves, but I would have no doubt about the copycat protests around the country and utter certainty in Europe.

    Remember that this group is also reflexively been brainwashed about the illegitimacy of Israel as well, so the anti-semite can target Wall Street, Hollywood, Corporate America, Big Government or Israel….the common thread? Yehuda baby….

    3B says:
    October 17, 2011 at 9:02 am
    Regarding the OWS protest, it may be many things, but anti Semitic? Not from what I have seen, and I am right across the street from it. In fact one day there was ONE guy there with ONE poster, and a crowd of about 50 of these kids gathered around him shouted him down, and said he was not with them did not represent them, and was not reflective of their movement.

  30. chicagofinance says:

    From Mushnick:
    If it’s the one-percent mega-wealthy and unduly enriched whom these protesters protest, why not an Occupy Yankee Stadium movement?

  31. Libtard in Union says:

    Grim (29),

    I couldn’t agree with you more. Between discount codes and no sales tax, I do most of my shopping online as well. I would also add that brick and mortar leaves little flexibility to adjust to changes in the economic landscape. Best Buy and other too large super stores are getting killed by their inability to scale up and down with economic trends. Lots of the smaller appliance stores are competing quite favorably to the large footprint stores. Regardless of whether the space is used or not, Best Buy is still paying the lease on the larger footprint. Online sellers don’t have this problem. Most of them don’t even stock items in their distribution centers, as they simply drop ship the goods from the manufacturer when the orders are placed. The majority of what Walmart sells online is not even available at their stores.

  32. Juice Box says:

    Grim – they are, click-through nexus and affiliate legislation is coming in PA and NJ. As Amazon expands it won’t be able to avoid Nexus forever. Amazon recently acquired Quidsi the the parent company of a number of online retailers including Diapers.com, Soap.com, Wag.com and YoYo.com. Quidsi is physically headquartered in New Jersey.

  33. JCer says:

    3B, the Gap should just do the world a favor and close it’s doors. Very low quality, I cannot believe anything they are selling is being bought. Abercrombie is a victim of the times, and it’s marketing shtick is getting old, and it’s primary customers have no control over the money used for purchases, closing stores is not a surprise. Like anything else retailers got away with selling overpriced junk during the boom. That isn’t going to fly in a prolonged recession, I think people may demand clothing that last for more than 2 washes unlike Gap or Old Navy and people are not buying their kids expensive clothing at Abercrombie, Target is winning. A lot of retail will hurt, only real high end and value will do well.

  34. Libtard in Union says:

    Anti-semitism is alive and well and probably always will be. The sad thing about it is that if you really dig deeply for the truth, the stark majority of American Jews and especially the Hollywood Jews, don’t support Israel with any fervor. And even if they did, so what? The whole anti-zionist movement is just stupid, unless perhaps, you are a Palestinian. And last I looked, the Palestinian’s aren’t exactly the shining stars of the Muslim world. To this day, I just don’t get the anti-semetic thing nor most racism. One simply need to travel the world to break down stereotype after stereotype.

  35. Shore Guy says:

    There is no need for an internet tax, as purchasers are obliged to pay the tax, whether the merchant collects it or not. A few high-profile enforcement actions might prompt people to pay what they should. We pay our online/out-of-state owed sales tax with our income tax each year.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone want some cheap land in Newfield? The satisfaction of owning there will leave one simply glowing.

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/10/12/new-jersey-to-regulate-plants-nuclear-material/?test=eim

  37. Juice Box says:

    How about the last 9 in the 9,9,9 plan? Don’t think for a second the States and the Fed gov won’t move to close the deficits with more taxes. If they cannot get us with Sales Tax they will figure out a way. NJ “loses” somewhere around $200 million a year in sales tax revenue, it will always translate in some other way like gasoline taxes.

  38. JJ says:

    “Bottom line: Longtime Shore homeowners came through the housing bust better than those who bought during the boom.”

    This is the stupidist thing I have every heard. Only a realtor thinks this way. The concept of the house’s money vs. your money.

    I buy a stock for 100 it goes to 200 and back to 100. Another person buys stock for 200 and it is now 100. We are both out 100 bucks.

  39. 3B says:

    #32 Libtard: There is an appliance dealer in Westwood, it has been there for years. Very competitive prices. The deliver in most cases the same day, and take away. the old. We have bought there for years.

  40. 3B says:

    #34 Gap back in the day used to have high quality merchandise. Old Navy is literally throw away clothing after a few years. A&F was big, and if they are closing stores, so much for retailing doing so well.

  41. JCer says:

    Lib, people are stupid! I have an idea let take land from productive people who are not involved in any kind terrorism and give it to other people who cannot organize a real representational government to forward their agenda and elect known terrorists to do their negotiations for statehood. Palestine doesn’t have statehood because they have managed to not create any kind of good will internationally to help them. What would happen if these people had their own country? Culturally we may not understand each other but I firmly believe there are really 2 directions a person can go, regardless of race or nationality. People can be good, they can be bad or more likely somewhere between the two.

    Internet sales tax is downright silly, most retailers sell clothing and in NJ that’s not an issue. What is best buy having an issue? They are the only brick and mortar electronic store left, and most brick and mortar stores also sell appliances and items really too large to be effectively shipped. Based on shipping costs, internet retailers would be hurt very badly by sales tax as now it could be easier and cheaper to buy things in a local retailer where returns and such can be made.

  42. Plume-

    Working on your business thing. Got tied up the last couple of days.

    Good on your kid. Tell her to go in studs up on everyone. Refs won’t show cards in this area until kids are at least U-11 or U-12. You can get away with absolute murder until then.

  43. joyce says:

    unrealized gains/losses definitely matter

  44. joyce says:

    (39)
    unrealized gains/losses definitely matter

  45. I’d like to go in studs-up and two-footed on Timmy Geethner right now.

    Too bad the stench of death is emanating from him so badly.

  46. JCer says:

    More taxation only hurts things, we could use less government, we could use structural changes in the tax system to replace revenue made from taxing earned income instead of consumption. The real reform should be reinstating higher capital gains taxes on gains over a certain amount(to protect the elderly and middle class), it is ridiculous that a person actually producing is taxed more than passive investment. The tax code really needs to be simplified, loopholes closed, etc, and we should have a national sales tax, and with the income collected from that we can fund tax rebates the encourage economic growth. Unfortunately this won’t happen he have spend and not tax republicans, tax and spend until the world ends democrats and herman cain who is pushing wacky tax structures that are too radical to be accepted and/or work.

    We don’t have a revenue problem in our government, we have a spending problem. In that we spend more than we have and get almost nothing for it, our government is among the most wasteful in the world. 30 years ago that wasn’t the case, today I just don’t think we are getting bang for our buck.

  47. 3B says:

    #41 Sorry should have said after a few wears.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    “Palestine doesn’t have statehood because they have managed to not create any kind of good will internationally”

    Great Britian was the strongest military power of its day. The American Colonies had no manufacturing capacity, and no meaningful military. We did, on the other hand, have people who were willing to risk everything by declaring statehood and then taking the fight to the British. If the Plaestinians want statehood — declare it. Enough of this “we need the world to agree that we are a state.” Hogwash! We would still be waiting for independence if we waited for the “world community” to recognize us as independent.

  49. Shore Guy says:

    And, so there are no misunderstandings, blowing up busses and lobbing missiles into resedential areas is NOT fighting for independence.

  50. Shore Guy says:

    “We don’t have a revenue problem in our government”

    Every dollar earned over, say 110%$ of the federal poverty level, should be taxed at the same rate. Exempt income below that poverty-rate-plus figure, and then treat everything else the same — with no exemptions.

  51. joyce says:

    51

    IFF we had to have an income tax, I would agree

    Would rather the federal govt fund itself through excise taxes and tariffs, no income tax. And no income/property tax at state level, rather have user fees and a sales tax and targeted excise taxes as well.

    dare to dream

  52. Juice Box says:

    ” We don’t have a revenue problem in our government”

    Yeah $6.2 trillion in Federal, State and local spending out of about 13 trillion in GDP.

  53. Nicholas says:

    Racism is a tax.

    You want to be racist and move your family to an all-white community in a an all-white school go ahead, but you are going to pay a racism tax.

    I choose not to pay the tax.

  54. yo says:

    AMR Corp. (AMR) trading was interrupted automatically today after the shares fell 11 percent to lead declines in the Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index.

    AMR’s American Airlines is continuing contract negotiations today with its pilots union, trying to secure an agreement and end more than five years’ of talks.

  55. Juice Box says:

    Nicholas – Taxes in Montclair are quite high are they not?

  56. chicagofinance says:

    Most liberal arts college campuses are infested with pro-Palestinian rhetoric that emanates from select faculty. The impressionable and willing soak up the bile like sponges and march around in their anti-establishment tempter tantrums that read like overgrown teenage rebellion (which is exactly what it is)……borrow like crazy to fund this education with no effort or consideration to repaying your loans and in an economy such as 2011, you have been sold down the river. OWS is a logical next step, but it is really a commentary on lack of vision….

    Libtard in Union says:
    October 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
    The whole anti-zionist movement is just stupid, unless perhaps, you are a Palestinian. And last I looked, the Palestinian’s aren’t exactly the shining stars of the Muslim world.

  57. Shore Guy says:

    “‘It’s as if he doesn’t like people,” says real-estate mogul and New York Daily News owner Mortimer Zuckerman of the president of the United States. Barack Obama doesn’t seem to care for individuals, elaborates Mr. Zuckerman, though the president enjoys addressing millions of them on television.

    The Boston Properties CEO is trying to understand why Mr. Obama has made little effort to build relationships on Capitol Hill or negotiate a bipartisan economic plan. A longtime supporter of the Democratic Party, Mr. Zuckerman wrote in these pages two months ago that the entire business community was “pleading for some kind of adult supervision” in Washington and “desperate for strong leadership.” Writing soon after the historic downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt by Standard & Poor’s, he wrote, “I long for a triple-A president to run a triple-A country.”

    His words struck a chord. When I visit Mr. Zuckerman this week in his midtown Manhattan office, he reports that three people approached him at dinner the previous evening to discuss his August op-ed. Among business executives who supported Barack Obama in 2008, he says, “there is enormously widespread anxiety over the political leadership of the country.” Mr. Zuckerman reports that among Democrats, “The sense is that the policies of this government have failed. . . . What they say about [Mr. Obama] when he’s not in the room, so to speak, is astonishing.”

    snip

    It may seem odd that most of the targeted rich people had nothing to do with creating the financial crisis. But as Mr. Zuckerman ponders the Occupy Wall Street movement, he concludes that “the door to it was opened by the Obama administration, going after the ‘millionaires and billionaires’ as if everybody is a millionaire and a billionaire and they didn’t earn it. . . . To fan that flame of populist anger I think is very divisive and very dangerous for this country.”

    Snip

    and he explains how the real unemployment rate is actually well above the official level of 9.1%, which only measures people who have applied for a job within the previous four weeks. In fact, he says, unemployment has even surged beyond the Department of Labor’s “U-6” number of 16.5% that has received increasing attention lately because it includes people who have given up looking for work within the past year, plus people who have been cut back from full-time employees to part-timers.

    Mr. Zuckerman says that when you also consider the labor-force participation rate and the so-called “birth-death series” that measures business starts and failures, the real U.S. unemployment rate is now 20%. His voice rising with equal parts anger and sadness, he exclaims, “That’s not America!”

    snip

    The U.S. “has fundamentally great qualities,” he says. “It’s a society that welcomes talent, nourishes talent, admires talent . . . and rewards talent.” But he sees “potentially catastrophic” political and fiscal problems. Mr. Zuckerman reports that when he was a young man, 50% of the top quartile of graduates from Canadian universities moved to the U.S. Now, he says, “I don’t want my daughter telling me, ‘Dad, I want to move back to Canada because that’s the land of opportunity.'”

    snip

    I have had a life that’s been better than my fantasies,” he says—but he’s certainly pessimistic about the current administration. That began shortly after inauguration day in 2009.

    At that time he supported Mr. Obama’s call for heavy spending on infrastructure. “But if you look at the make-up of the stimulus program,” says Mr. Zuckerman, “roughly half of it went to state and local municipalities, which is in effect to the municipal unions which are at the core of the Democratic Party.” He adds that “the Republicans understood this” and it diminished the chances for bipartisan legislating.

    Then there was health-care reform: “Eighty percent of the country wanted them to get costs under control, not to extend the coverage. They used all their political capital to extend the coverage. I always had the feeling the country looked at that bill and said, ‘Well, he may be doing it because he wants to be a transformational president, but I want to get my costs down!'”

    Mr. Zuckerman recalls reports of Mr. Obama consulting various historians on the qualities of a transformational president. “But remember, transformations can go up and they can go down.”

    snip

  58. Shore Guy says:

    From that same piece, the last graph is key:

    Mr. Zuckerman has for years owned U.S. News and World Report, and in 1986 its Moscow correspondent Nicholas Daniloff was seized without warning by the KGB.

    Mr. Zuckerman immediately flew to Russia but returned home when Soviet officials refused to release their new prisoner. “I worked in the White House for the next four weeks virtually every day and through that I met Reagan,” says Mr. Zuckerman. Reagan secured Mr. Daniloff’s release in a swap that included a Soviet spy held in the U.S.

    “Reagan surprised me,” says Mr. Zuckerman. “He got the point of every argument. . . . He was very decisive. And everybody loved working for him. They followed his lead because they really respected his decisiveness and his instincts.”

    ‘I was not a Republican and I was not an admirer of his before I knew him,” continues Mr. Zuckerman. “And you know, Harry Truman had a wonderful definition for the presidency. He said the president has to be someone who can persuade the American people to do what they don’t want to do and to like it. And that’s what you have to do. Somebody like Reagan had that authority. He was liked so much and he had a kind of moral authority. That’s what this president has lost.”

  59. JJ says:

    They tax black people who move to white neighborhoods? What are you talking about?

    Nicholas says:
    October 17, 2011 at 11:38 am
    Racism is a tax.

    You want to be racist and move your family to an all-white community in a an all-white school go ahead, but you are going to pay a racism tax.

    I choose not to pay the tax.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (27) juice
    It was on the OWS site, and the comments were largely supportive. I found the latter very surprising.

    That said, I think this topic s/b dropped.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    Whoppers and bad pizza for everyone!

    In case there wasn’t enough proof that Rick Perry’s numbers had taken a dive and Herman Cain is filling the space, here’s another poll to that effect – a CNN survey taken from Friday through Sunday that shows Mitt Romney and Cain essentially tied.

    Romney gets 26 percent of the vote, Cain gets 25 percent, and Perry gets 13 percent.

    Ron Paul is in fourth place, at 9 percent, Newt Gingrich gets 8 percent, Michele Bachmann 6 percent, Rick Santorum 2 percent and Jon Huntsman 1 percent.

    snip
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66147.html#ixzz1b3erwRsd

  62. Shore Guy says:

    What ever happened to One-Term Byrne after his first term ended?

    Nom, you are nerly as old as I am. You might remember, and can tell the kiddies.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    nearly, too

  64. Fabius Maximus says:

    I suppose we can expect the Tax Foundation to come out with a ringing endorsement of 9-9-9.
    http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2011/10/16/herman_cain_ties_to_koch_brothers.html

  65. Libtard in Union says:

    Wasn’t he a two-termer?

  66. schabadoo says:

    Tell her to go in studs up on everyone. Refs won’t show cards in this area until kids are at least U-11 or U-12.

    If only Thompson was around to cover soccer parents:

    Big Frank from Frisco, for instance, is a black belt in karate who goes into any fight with the idea of jerking people’s eyeballs out of their sockets. It is a traditional karate move and not difficult for anyone who knows what he’s doing. . . although it is not taught in “self-defense” classes for housewives, businessmen and hot-tempered clerks who can’t tolerate bullies kicking sand in their faces. The intent is to demoralize your opponent, not blind him. “You don’t really jerk out the eyeball,” Big Frank explained. “You just sortas pr ing it, so it pops outta the socket. It hurts so much that most guys just faint.”

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (63) shore,

    remember I have only been in new jersey for 3 years. I’ll have to ask Kean about that.

  68. JCer says:

    Shore[49], America in it’s revolution was quite different and the times were very different. Add to the fact that the colonists were very prepared to govern themselves and the situation could not be more different. But we can agree on one thing and that is if Palestine functioned more like a country and was showing they were ready to organize and establish what would be needed to form a country, they’d have a better chance of getting one.

    Any formal military attack on Israel has almost zero chance of success, given the geographic proximity and modern machines it would be a quick battle. These are not the Napoleonic times where people had relatively inaccurate muskets and bayonets and they line up on the field and charge at each other. Also in the Revolutionary war you have a fundamentally different situation where you have a populous in an isolated place rebelling against a leadership thousands of miles away with limited ability to move troops and supplies. Without the French blockade America would have likely lost the revolution. A territory dispute is far different, usually the side with bigger guns wins.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (67) boo

    Nice but I prefer the open palm uppercut to the nose. Less gratuitous damage and you get comparable results

  70. schabadoo says:

    (70)

    But then you don’t get one of the greatest fight scenes:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Blki-DISUis

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (71) boo

    The purpose behind knowing how to do this is knowing how not to.

  72. Gooners struggle to dispatch Sunderland. Gooners booed off the pitch at the half.

    Magpies come back from down twice to draw Spurs. Still sitting in a Champions League spot.

    All is as it should be.

  73. Arsene Wanker = the Timothy Geethner of football

  74. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    My 8yo’s soccer instructor is a Newcastle fan (I think). Not from there but his dad was a fan, so …

  75. Juice Box says:

    Ron Paul takes a chain saw to the Federal Gov and proposes 1 Trillion in cuts, and proposes to create a balanced federal budget by the third year of his Presidency. Also corporate income tax rate to 15 percent, eliminating capital gains and dividends taxes, and allowing for repatriation of overseas capital without tax penalties. Granny also does not get a haircut, but the Palestinians and everyone else with their hands out do.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66114.html#ixzz1b3ym6H7d

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66114.html#ixzz1b3yIGQrh

  76. freedy says:

    Just returned from HOboken. What recession? looks like yuppies all over the place.
    No parking, eating places look busy.

    Besides its close to NYC .

  77. Fabius Maximus says:

    #73 Clot

    The devils barcodes are lucky to scrape a late point at home to a lacklustre Spurs.
    As they start seeing some real opposition, the best they can come up with is a draw.

    See you at Christmas!

  78. Double Down says:

    Can you name such “racist” towns?

    “Racism is a tax. You want to be racist and move your family to an all-white community in a an all-white school go ahead, but you are going to pay a racism tax. I choose not to pay the tax.”

  79. JJ says:

    Recession is over, no double dip. Well maybe if she is hot.

  80. Fabius Maximus says:

    #73 Clot

    In the 17 years he has managed us we have 3 Premierships, 4 FA Cups, 4 League Cups, 4 Charity Shields, and a European cup.

    In the same period, the barcodes had 12 managers, a relegation and the highlight, an InterToto cup!

    In Arsene we Trust!

  81. schabadoo says:

    Ron Paul takes a chain saw to the Federal Gov and proposes 1 Trillion in cuts

    His cuts to Defense are what’s needed, but will never pass.

    When someone talks about reigning in spending but leaving Defense untouched, I know they’re not serious.

  82. JJ says:

    I never trust a man with two first names.

  83. Juice Box says:

    re #82 – Shab – battle lines are now drawn between the MIC and Wall St for a greater piece of the ever shrinking pie. Paul is now pandering to the right. Repeal Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law, 15% Corp gains? extend all Bush-era tax cuts, abolish the so-called “death tax” and end taxes on personal savings and capital gains, reduce the federal workforce by 10%,sounds like a tea party wet dream.

  84. 3B says:

    377 Credit cards are a wonderful thing!!!

  85. nwnj says:

    Juice – Problem for the WS boys in that scenario is that it’s a symbiotic relationship.

    See what happens to the billions reaped each year from market intermediation(“the WS tax”) when power projection drops. Think oil has to be traded in $’s? Wrong.

  86. JJ says:

    00828DAJ0 View Bond Details
    Description AFFINION GROUP INC SR SB NT 11.50000% 10/15/2015

    Chifi, what do you think about this bond, can buy at price of 80 cents. Bottom line private equity back which is a downer but still has team doing SOX and operating like public company as still expect an IPO. Plus they do all that high margin affinity cards, trip insurance and credit card insurance stuff which is a cash cow.

  87. joyce says:

    84
    ideally, he wants a 0% federal income tax

  88. Juice Box says:

    re# 86 – nwnj -G20 meetings to discuss dollar hegemony have been going on for years, we are constantly warned not to devalue. I have said it many times we cannot continue to put a gun to the head of everyone indefinitely so we can print our way out of our troubles. Take a look at the Saudi buildup they are spending like 11% of the GDP now on their military. Take a look at our limited role in Libya.We are also currently negotiating the pullout of the remaining soldiers in Iraq with only 39k there now and perhaps only 4k next year. It may well be very possible to cut 200 Billion + from the Military budget in the coming years as Ron Paul has proposed without doing too much. They supplies lines will be kept open as long as a Regional War does not break out between the Shia and Sunni. We are drilling more and more here at home and we may no longer need to export a trillion dollars of our wealth in the coming years. There are some things to look forward to as long as war does not break out again.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    “Wasn’t he a two-termer?”

    Yup. So, we better watch out with the Empty-Suit-in-Chief.

  90. nwnj says:

    Fair enough, though I disagree about Libya, it’s all US tech doing the heavy lifting.

    But really, this conversation underscores Ron Paul’s biggest problems. a) He’s an idealogue(and they’re dangerous), and b) He can’t clearly articulate his postion.

    From what I heard him say about his ideas for DoD cuts, they’re much deeper than 200B “in the coming years”.

  91. Juice Box says:

    nwnj – “idealogue, they’re dangerous” Yeah if McCain got in I would probably be carrying a rifle right now over the Azarbaijan Mountains wondering if I would ever see home again.

    Libya, we have flown maybe 20% of 26,000 sorties. The Brits and the French are doing the heavy bombing, and rightly so they get the spoils.

  92. joyce says:

    91
    Most of what Ron Paul advocates I would not consider dangerous, such as the rule of law and balancing the budget.

  93. Shore Guy says:

    Juice,

    We don’t want the bombing runs. We want to use “our unique capabilities.” Frankly, I would rather we use AWACS, JSTARS, etc. to shift ther odds in favor of our allies than to have our pilots at risk from AAA or AA missiles.

  94. freedy says:

    CROX takes it in the shorts. They still wearing those things .

  95. Shore Guy says:

    Going on vacation to paradise? Choose your guide carefully:

    The case of a missing German sailor took an ugly twist last week after authorities said they believe he was eaten by cannibals.

    Stefan Ramin, 40, went missing earlier this month while vacationing with his girlfriend Helke Dorsch in the remote island of Nuku Hiva in French Polynesia, London’s the Telegraph reported.

    Dorsch told investigators that he had gone on a goat hunting trip with a local guide, who returned to tell her that Ramin had been injured.

    When she began to panic, he tied her to a tree and then fled, according to the report.

    She escaped hours later – but Ramin hasn’t been seen since.

    The two had been sailing around the world together since 2008.

    Investigators told the newspaper that they found charred remains and clothes that they believe could belong to the missing sailor.

    A German newspaper reported that the guide was regarded as a cannibal.

    “It is the suspicion of the authorities that the hunter carved his victim up, ate parts of the body and burned the remainder along with animals cadavers,” according to the report

    snip

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/10/17/2011-10-17_german_sailor_may_have_been_eaten_by_cannibals_investigators_say_report.html

    Now back to our regularly-scheduled oblivion.

  96. nwnj says:

    93 – Nor would I, but I was illustrating why he’s not a viable candidate.

  97. chicagofinance says:

    I guess this gives new meaning to the term “Ramin Noodles”….

    Shore Guy says:
    October 17, 2011 at 4:39 pm
    Stefan Ramin, 40, went missing earlier this month while vacationing with his girlfriend Helke Dorsch in the remote island of Nuku Hiva in French Polynesia, London’s the Telegraph reported.

    Investigators told the newspaper that they found charred remains and clothes that they believe could belong to the missing sailor.

    A German newspaper reported that the guide was regarded as a cannibal.

  98. Hungry Tour Guide says:

    I just love tourist season. This year I bagged three.

  99. Just Toast says:

    Can anyone comment on the accuracy of the Radon tests you purchase at Home Depot or Lowes and if the tests you buy at these places are not accurate, is there a place I can purchase one that is? I believe the canister is mailed out to a lab for analysis so that has to be part of the accuracy equation.

    Also – any ideas as to where to get the best deal on a flat screen TV? I was told Costco is good because of competitive prices and they double the warranty.

    Thanks,

  100. nwnj (91)-

    What is so unclearly articulated in Paul’s position to audit the Fed, then shut it down?

  101. joyce (93)-

    Yeah, but these ideas are considered very dangerous by banksters, unions, political hacks and oligarchs.

    “Most of what Ron Paul advocates I would not consider dangerous, such as the rule of law and balancing the budget.”

  102. shore (96)-

    Wait ’til this trend catches on in the US.

    “It is the suspicion of the authorities that the hunter carved his victim up, ate parts of the body and burned the remainder along with animals cadavers,” according to the report.”

  103. That cannibal was an amateur. Everybody knows you have to wait for rigor mortis to pass before roasting long pig…and ideally, it shouldt be hung or dry aged for a few days before cooking.

    Then again, fresh innards are OK.

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Ask the uberinspector…he will tell you what to do…..

    Just Toast says:
    October 17, 2011 at 5:29 pm
    Can anyone comment on the accuracy of the Radon tests you purchase at Home Depot or Lowes and if the tests you buy at these places are not accurate, is there a place I can purchase one that is? I believe the canister is mailed out to a lab for analysis so that has to be part of the accuracy equation.

  105. NjescaPee says:

    Al, Any recommendations precious metals dealers?

  106. A.West says:

    I’m back from China. Went to a mountain resort. If you like taxi drivers passing trucks going around blind curves, you’ll love this place. I can’t believe how many 50yr old Chinese women I saw carrying $3000 dslrs. It also offered lots of yak meat and sheep. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiuzhaigou_Valley

    I didn’t realize until last week that sheep intestines taste very much like brie. I think that’s where the French get the bacteria that populates the cheese.

  107. West (109)-

    Sure that yak meat wasn’t long pig?

  108. Bocephus says:

    109. Amazing. Eat any locals?

  109. BearsFan says:

    108 – NJescapee – hi, i know you didn’t ask me, but I have bought from gainesvillecoins, apmex and provident metals. I have had no issues with any of them. I will say I was a bit annoyed at gainesville putting their site offline when silver got taken down few weeks ago, but they are a business. Provident best shipping rates.

  110. nj escapee says:

    Thanks BearsFan, I’ll check them out.

  111. evildoc says:

    —Hogwash! We would still be waiting for independence if we waited for the “world community” to recognize us as independent.—

    Nah. This is the wrong story.

    1) There are no Palestinians. No polity history. No currency. A regional name, whose Arab population largely is Jordanian. Jordan was to be (and in fact is) the “Palestinian State”.

    2) The offer of a 2nd “Palestine” in 1948 was a sop to the angry Arabs, so Partition was offered, with a state offered (2nd) to Arab “Palestinians” and a state offered to Jewish “Palestinians”.

    The Jews accepted and became Israel. The “Palestinians” declined, waged genocidal war (a very arab thing) and… lost.

    If ever in Earth’s history there has been a population undeserving of a State, it is today’s Would-be-Palestinians.

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