Case Shiller Day!

From MarketWatch:

Spotlight on the economy: Can the good times in housing continue?

The Federal Reserve was so spooked by the backup in mortgage rates that it postponed tapering its bond-buying program. But what about prospective home buyers?

Data released Tuesday will shed more light on that topic, with home price gauges from S&P/Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency both due at 9 a.m. Eastern and both covering July. The two series have slightly different methodologies — in June, prices were up 12.1% on the Case-Shiller gauge and up 7.7% on the FHFA gauge from the same period of 2012. But prices should, at least for now, remain resilient, economists say.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

127 Responses to Case Shiller Day!

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Housing recovery slows down a bit

    The U.S. housing market, which saw strong growth for much of this year, may be starting to lose some steam, the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.

    Despite the slowdown in traffic, both current homeowners and first-time homebuyers groups are still posting relatively strong traffic numbers.

    Meanwhile, investor’s Homebuyer Traffic Index scored below 50 in August, which indicates traffic dropped below what is considered a “flat” traffic level.

  2. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    Not Frist!

  3. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    They weren’t spooked enough. Since I was paying cash, I was hoping for a rate hike mid spring to dampen demand. Didn’t happen soon enough. Only got 10k off ask. Might have gotten more but for two backup offers for full price right behind me.

  4. The next housing crash is imminent. The collapse of everything is imminent.

    Prepare accordingly.

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    [3] juice

    Now we’re the Third World baby mill.

    I recall years ago, some jeremiads about the US becoming Asia’s granary. Nice to see we are diversifying.

  6. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    I think I am going to start monitoring inverse leveraged ETFs to monitor sentiment so i know when to park black swan money somewhere. That way, when Scrapple is proven correct, I want to be ready to ski that slope, screaming “yeah, baby, burn it all down.”

  7. grim says:

    You had me at Third World, from the Star Ledger:

    New Jersey sees illegal immigration rebound as economy recovers: study

    The number of immigrants living illegally in New Jersey and the U.S. appears to be on the rise again after bottoming out during the recession, a new study from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center shows.

    About 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the U.S. as of March 2012, Pew researchers found in their analysis of the most recent government data. While that’s down from the peak of 12.2 million reached in 2007, the year before the recession hit in full swing, it is a rebound from the low of 11.3 million hit in 2009.

    The Pew study looked at the experience of six states, including New Jersey, where collectively about 60 percent of the country’s immigrants who are here illegally live. Like most of the other states, New Jersey saw this population dwindle during the recession, to about 450,000 in 2009 from about the peak of 550,000 two years earlier.

    But as the economy strengthened, immigrants living illegally in the state swelled back to about 525,000, Pew found.

  8. grim says:

    I think I am going to start monitoring inverse leveraged ETFs to monitor sentiment so i know when to park black swan money somewhere.

    Wouldn’t options/vix be the obvious approach here? By that time, it would be too late to place the swan bet.

  9. grim says:

    Nom – EU data protection directive has everything to do with not-so-thinly veiled trade protectionism, and nothing to do with actually protecting PII data (as you know).

    I feel the US economy would be well served by similar provisions, however, one must first rationalize the cognitive dissonance of this situation – on one side you have the NSA – no data security or privacy, and on the other a directive that establishes data security and privacy. Do as I say, not as I do … I suppose.

  10. grim says:

    Press release from Bankrate:

    Most Americans Think Home Prices Will Rise Over Next Year

    Most Americans (55%) think home prices will go up over the next 12 months, according to a new Bankrate.com report. Twenty-seven percent say they will stay the same and just nine percent forecast a decline. Upper-middle-income households (those earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year) are the most optimistic; 65% expect prices to rise and just 6% expect prices to fall.

    In July, Bankrate established that 23% of Americans believe real estate is the best way to invest money not needed for more than 10 years. That was the second-most common response, slightly behind cash.

    “It seems like Americans’ love affair with real estate has returned,” said Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate.com’s senior financial analyst. “But there are still some clear headwinds, including rising mortgage rates, stubbornly high unemployment and the relatively low U.S. household savings rate.”

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    [9] grim

    Yes, and I intend to once better invested, but adding alerts on a basket of inverse EFTs is a backup and a signal that dumber money is piling into that trade. If you relied on it, you wouldn’t catch a top, but it couldn’t hurt. Also, take it for wht it is, an idea. I’d have to examine further in any event.

    [10] grim

    I was being sarcastic with not so thinly veiled. But I also leave this stuff to you geeks—I’m not well versed in anything EU or tech.

  12. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [10];

    I had reason to peruse http://export.gov/safeharbor/ recently. I can’t disagree with that assessment.

  13. JSMC says:

    So the day has finally arrived: me and my wife are meeting a Realtor tonight to actually look into buying a house. What should my expectations be? Right now I’m setting them so low that I am thinking that the only thing on the market will be a 500k crapshack in the middle of Dover.

  14. grim says:

    I’m not well versed in anything EU or tech.

    It’s actually very easy – Sum it up as it is generally easier to keep technology infrastructure and the jobs that directly touch the data within that technology infrastructure within the EU than to move it elsewhere, even though it might be significantly less expensive to do elsewhere.

  15. freedy says:

    If you see the streets in Northern Bergen County , you can”t believe the number of
    Mexicans walking around with the babies in tow. They are all over the place.

  16. JJ says:

    Last five years the best trade has been long VIX fear trade put bets on fear when market is stable, we every few months last five years had some type of scare. AKA risk on risk off.

    Inverse ETFS are straight up gambling and most folks lose money. They have to close positons almost daily and fees within ETF is huge and swings huge. You can be right but if timing is slightly off you still lose.

    Or just do a short hedge on spdrs.

  17. JJ says:

    Use something to prevent STDs.

    JSMC says:
    September 24, 2013 at 8:07 am

    So the day has finally arrived: me and my wife are meeting a Realtor tonight to actually look into buying a house. What should my expectations be? Right now I’m setting them so low that I am thinking that the only thing on the market will be a 500k crapshack in the middle of Dover.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    Most Americans struggle to make exact change…..

    grim says:
    September 24, 2013 at 7:41 am
    Press release from Bankrate:

    Most Americans Think Home Prices Will Rise Over Next Year

  19. grim says:

    19 – I wrote an app to help with that – top seller on iTunes – making a mint

  20. anon (the good one) says:

    Yesterday,for one day only, Apple haters shut their pipe. but sure today will be back in full force to argue why selling 9 million in a weekend ain’t big deal. tards unwilling to get a life

  21. anon (the good one) says:

    @CNBC: Apple announces first weekend iPhone sales top 9M, set record. $AAPL http://t.co/iajQWZXKHv

  22. chicagofinance (the good one) says:

    using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 8:48 am
    Yesterday,for one day only, Apple haters shut their pipe. but sure today will be back in full force to argue why selling 9 million in a weekend ain’t big deal. tards unwilling to get a life

  23. grim says:

    In other news, Microsoft had a big event to announce product refreshes of it’s tablet line. Did anyone care?

  24. chicagofinance (the good one) says:

    I love the smell of logging into my bank website in the morning and all the terms are in Spanish……in smells like victory……Apocalypse Now……

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    JSMC [14],

    So the day has finally arrived: me and my wife are meeting a Realtor tonight to actually look into buying a house. What should my expectations be? Right now I’m setting them so low that I am thinking that the only thing on the market will be a 500k crapshack in the middle of Dover.

    Prepare to capitulate little by little on your the list of wants and needs. As the weeks go by, you’ll be crossing off line after a line in a desperate attempt to find something that you can tolerate. Anything! Your search diameter will increase to include towns and areas you never would have considered. Eventually, the list will be tossed away and you’ll be begging just to find anything that has the footprint that will work for you and the family, considering even the most foul and offensice dumps imaginable with thoughts of possibly gutting the place. You will alter your game plan numerous times but nothing will seem to work. After viewing 1000 houses with multiple issues at a price tag that has you shaking your head in bewilderment, you will sit there in stunned disbelief, too numb to figure out what to do next.

  26. anon (the good one) says:

    @tim_cook: Thanks to all our amazing customers for the fantastic weekend!

  27. anon (the good one) says:

    @GMA: Why record iPhone sales might be rotten for Apple: http://t.co/eGoAQcsTFU

    @asymco: @GMA @andrewjclark Apple must thank God that sales weren’t higher.

    @andrewjclark: @asymco @gma Like Icarus, soaring too close to the sun of success.

    @HarshilShah1910: @andrewjclark @asymco @GMA Doomed if they sell, doomed if they don’t.

  28. JSMC says:

    #26

    So my expectations are right in line with what you say they should be. Awesome.

  29. nwnj says:

    Yawn, another apple fanboy. They think the rest of us don’t get “it” — why wouldn’t we want to be locked into their ecosystem of overpriced crap?

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:
  31. nwnj says:

    #29

    If you have cash, buy a place that needs work and fix it. It’s how you’ll find the best value.

    Don’t go into the process with an entitlement mentality, you’ll end up frustrated and ranting on an internet message board.

  32. grim says:

    locked into their ecosystem of overpriced crap?

    Microsoft Surface 2 starts at $899 (no keyboard cover included, if you want that you are at $1000), 512gb version with the keyboard gets you close to $2,000!! Not sure how much the dock costs, I’ll wager a guess at around $200.

    This makes Apple look downright cheap in comparison. This is Macbook Pro pricing territory.

  33. Juice Box says:

    re # 8 – My landscapers, Housekeepers and painters are all very busy. The only USA born is the pool cleaner.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    JSMC,

    It wasn’t like this when I bought my first house or even my second house in early 2001 when things were just beginning to unravel. Now, the game is so underhanded and devious, you really have to keep your emotions in check as to not get sucked into the vortex of diabolical intentions. Fundementals and rules don’t exist any longer. Accept it. Now, it’s just a ruse, all designed to finalize a transaction at your expense. Mentioning property taxes to a realtor in this area is akin to splashing h0ly water on s.atan. They’ll attempt to deflect that issue anyway they could just to drag you to the finish line known as the closing table. They will not let you focus long enough to know that the property tax is another mortgage payment. It’s about completing the sting at the highest price possible so that the next person selling can remian solvent and be used as a prop for yet another unexpecting buyer.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Are we now talking about betting against the printing presses again? Many were carried out on their shields once the Fed began secret loan programs.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    unexpecting = unsuspecting

  37. Ottoman says:

    “So the day has finally arrived: me and my wife are meeting a Realtor tonight to actually look into buying a house. What should my expectations be? Right now I’m setting them so low that I am thinking that the only thing on the market will be a 500k crapshack in the middle of Dover.”

    Well considering you can get a $300k crapshack in the middle of Far Hills right now, 2 of them in fact, I think you might do okay.

  38. Ottoman says:

    I got my Apple Ipad free and after about an hour I realized I paid too much.

  39. JSMC says:

    #32

    Thanks for the insight. My wife and I were planning on something like that anyway. It helps that we both are hands on and enjoy projects: I program code for a living and like building computers, and she makes costumes as a hobby…DIY projects do not phase us…underground oil furnaces and foundation damage do. I don’t expect to be able to build a deck, but I’m not afraid of getting my hands dirty.

    #35

    We will mention property taxes tonight, no matter how much the realtor doesn’t want to hear it. My wife actually printed out a sheet of property tax numbers for 4 counties for prep work. No one is running from this. We will not let the conversation advance without hearing about it first.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    If you have cash, buy a place that needs work and fix it. It’s how you’ll find the best value.

    You think this theory wasn’t at the top of my list? I visited a house that needed to be gutted from top to bottom. Asking price? $639,000. Touche’ if most can purchase at that price and still have six digits to gut the place. I found another that needed a complete gut inside and out at a price of $499,000. A bargain, right? Sure, if you like the sound of a major highway in your bedroom window. It seems easy on paper, doesn’t it?

  41. JJ says:

    A realtor is a women you meet who tricks you into a long term relationship and robs you blind, but unlike a gold digger you end the relationship broke AND with blue balls

  42. AG says:

    Perhaps we can start exporting gang bangers, meth heads, and body fat to go along with our scrap waste.

  43. JSMC says:

    #41

    Just out of curiosity, where abouts were you looking?

  44. AG says:

    Jsmc don’t overextend yourself, check property taxes and the last reassessment date, schools, flood maps if necessary. There are some deals out there now.

  45. grim says:

    349 William in Sicomac/Wyckoff sold for $450k.

    Yeah, sure, you can hear 208, but you don’t back to it, and it certainly didn’t bother the neighbor who paid $1.032m for the house next door 2 months earlier, or the other neighbor a few houses down who paid $680k, or the guy up the block who paid in at $600k.

    The house was an easy reno being a larger than average split. No major structural/expansion work necessary. New roof, windows, doors, siding would make the thing look like a gem from the outside, and would probably run you about $45k at the TOP end, easily done in about 3 weeks time.

    Interior? You could easily get by with kitchens and baths, redo the floors, and new paint all around. Assuming you aren’t looking for a $50k Wolf appliance suite installed into $50k worth of cabinetry, you could probably do the rest of the interior work for under $50k and have it done NICE.

  46. AG says:

    Jsmc,

    Only the lazy don’t appeal their property taxes every few years. Just dump some baby toys on the floor of the living room and don’t cut the lawn for a month.

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [38] Ottoman – Fully expect that you will not only overpay, but you will overpay at the very top of the market. Further, expect that 5 years down the road you will have no significant equity unless you put 40% down or over-pay your mortgage every month by $500-$1000 or so (40% down and overpaying your mortgage would be better still). Expect your property taxes to rise precipitously and maintenance costs to be double what you anticipated.

    What should my expectations be?

  48. Ottoman says:

    Everyone is looking for the dump in the good towns these days. Unless you’re willing to take a chance on a border town that might get better, which is rare these days as towns become more stratified, you will be in competition with someone who probably wants the house more.

    Harding and Bedminster have very low taxes. So if you’re looking for a 500k crapshack…

    Regarding renos, the town will slam you in new taxes for all your permitted work. And if you put on an addition, they may reassess the entire house (thats what they did to us on our last house)–assuming it goes in their favor. So keep that in mind when looking at fixers. cosmetics you can do off the grid are better than replumbing and electric work you need to pull permits for which are better than additions.

  49. JJ says:

    Actually cracked foundations cause huge price cuts but are not usually that big an issue. The underground oil tank is more of a possible nightmare as you cant see it.

    After Sandy surprisingly my slab was four inches lower on one side than the other and I had a crack. If I was buying a house and saw that I would have freeked. Meanwhile, we were doing a new porcelain floor on slab anyhow. We just leveled it off so whole thing even and layed the slab, patched up crack and sheetrocked away. Guy said it was a few hours extra labor but did not charge extra.

    Meanwhile if I was selling and a buyer found it I might have knocked 20K off as it sounded serious.

    100 years from no that slab will be fine. We went a little nutso with cement as we were in Sandy nutso time.

    Also Mold and Absestos I find people freek too much. Couple of mexicans and some bleach is all it costs.

    I also find it funny folks freek when they find it during inspection. Or freek when owner confesses he had it and fixed it. But meanwhile in my case according to State law me or my contractor could not test for mold, asbestos or lead during project. Once we find it we are supposed to report it and I have to disclose it upon sale.

    I guess I will never know and future buyer will never know. Not that it matters to future buyer as it is not there.

    Most folks would never buy a house if they knew how repairs were done.

    JSMC says:
    September 24, 2013 at 9:32 am

    #32

    Thanks for the insight. My wife and I were planning on something like that anyway. It helps that we both are hands on and enjoy projects: I program code for a living and like building computers, and she makes costumes as a hobby…DIY projects do not phase us…underground oil furnaces and foundation damage do. I don’t expect to be able to build a deck, but I’m not afraid of getting my hands dirty.

  50. Ottoman says:

    “Only the lazy don’t appeal their property taxes every few years. Just dump some baby toys on the floor of the living room and don’t cut the lawn for a month.”

    They don’t care if your grass isn’t cut, they only care what other homes with the same number of beds and baths sold for–if its habitable, its comparable.

    JSMC –

    Look at the recent solds in a town you’re considering and see how many are coded with the number ’26’ in the tax record–you can do this online. 26 is the number they throw in to stop a sale from being used in tax appeals for no apparent reason. A lot of 26s means you have no shot of appealing your taxes unless you hire a lawyer to investigate the sales and reverse them from being unusable.

  51. JJ says:

    Other problem with additions, if you house needs flood insurance and is pre-flood maps and grandfathered you can only expand 30%. If you do more it has to be to 2013 codes which means raising house.

    FEMA keeps expanding flood zones to include towns that never even flood so raise funds. They want towns with no flood risk in flood zones to make money. So if you house boaders a town in the zone you may end up in the zone.

    My house is in the ring of death right now. I can only expand a max of 500 feet or I have to raise it. So my house has a big pain. If I sell the next buyer will most likely hit same wall too. This is why you see so many finished basements and converted garages extensions and additions open a world of pain once town is involved and it changes you cost of insurance

  52. JJ says:

    I appealed this year and won and town only cut my value 5k. Then town threw me a smackdown. I had to either agree by October 5th or roll dice in Small Claims Assessment Review Court. Or go past Oct 5 and plead to assessors office to cut a bit more and I wont go SCAR route.

    I saw a house in another town guy won 12 times straight god bless him and got annual property tax from 7k to $32 dollars a year. Guy is my hero.

    I also grieved my condo in prior owners name pre-purchase and put me as his representative. That should be interesting. I am grieving the 12-31-2012 price. I paid 45K over that assessed value. But however, I am not grieving Summer 2013 price I am grieving December 2012 price and I believe at that point in time new years eve after Sandy it was worth that price. Also rental properties are assessed at a multiple of rent. Since it is rented I may have trouble grieving 12-31-2013 price. However, since I don’t file taxes to April 2014 they wont know that so that is my last shot at grieving. Plus housing is coming back a bit and fire sale comps are dying. Come 2015 I wont have comps to support my claims.

    Ottoman says:
    September 24, 2013 at 10:06 am

    “Only the lazy don’t appeal their property taxes every few years. Just dump some baby toys on the floor of the living room and don’t cut the lawn for a month.”

    They don’t care if your grass isn’t cut, they only care what other homes with the same number of beds and baths sold for–if its habitable, its comparable.

    JSMC –

    Look at the recent solds in a town you’re considering and see how many are coded with the number ’26′ in the tax record–you can do this online. 26 is the number they throw in to stop a sale from being used in tax appeals for no apparent reason. A lot of 26s means you have no shot of appealing your taxes unless you hire a lawyer to investigate the sales and reverse them from being unusable.

  53. Juice Box says:

    Don’t Believe the Hype!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM

    Apple Actually Only Sold 5.5 Million iPhones During Opening Weekend, Says Gene Munster
    Jay Yarow Sep. 23, 2013, 7:55 PM 24,343 3

    Apple’s Gigantic Opening Weekend iPhone Sales In Context
    MICROSOFT: Here’s What We Got Wrong With The First Version Of The Surface
    Here’s Why Apple Threw Out The Software Design Steve Jobs Made For The iPhone

    Apple says it sold a record-breaking 9 million iPhones during the opening weekend the 5S and 5C were on sale.

    Gene Munster, analyst at Piper Jaffray, thinks there should be an asterisk on that record.

    In an interview with Bloomberg TV, he attributed the eye-popping sales number to “channel fill.”

    He says Apple sold a lot of iPhone 5Cs to partners who did not sell the 5C to consumers. For instance, AT&T may have bought 10 iPhone 5Cs, but only sold 5 of them. (Those numbers are just for explanatory purposes.)

    This is a first for Apple, since in the past it always sold out of all inventory of a new phone. The 5C, while technically a new phone, is basically just an iPhone 5 with a new case on it. Therefore, it didn’t sell as well as a brand-new phone.

    Munster believes 3.5 million iPhone 5Cs accounted for channel fill and that the real iPhone sales number for Apple was 5.5 million.

  54. Anon E. Moose says:

    ChiFi [23];

    using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?

    You expect principles from a Michael Moore-quoting Kool Aid drinker? “Tolerance”, “diversity” and “respect” just clubs for leftists to beat up anyone who disagrees.

    Kind of like Buford T. Justice. (If you remember the whole scene, its funnier, but YouTube and copyright and all…)

  55. Juice Box says:

    Putin > Obama

    He has already positioned his Queen.

    THE CRISIS-PRONE Middle East has proved a fertile hunting ground for Russian foreign policy. The latest gambit designed to enhance the Russian role was President Vladimir Putin’s call for the dismantling of Israel’s nuclear arsenal as a condition for successful regional reconciliation.

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    JSMC [44],

    Primarily in the Pascack Valley region but over towards route 208 as well.

  57. JSMC says:

    #57

    Ahh…that explains the price points then. We aren’t looking in Bergen County (what you explained earlier is one of the reasons).

    Granted, overpriced crapshacks are everywhere, but no place does overpriced like Bergen County.

  58. 30 year realtor says:

    Fast Eddie – I feel your pain but you have departed from reality. All North Jersey homes have high property taxes. When asked about property taxes I acknowledge that they are absurd. What response are you expecting an agent to give when you complain about taxes?

    High taxes are baked into the cake. It still comes down to how much does it cost per month and how much do I have to put down for the privilege of living there. And yes I do know that you can buy a house for cash in the $800,000 range and still end up with a $1,500 to $2,000 per month tax bill. The real decision is whether you really want to buy that monthly cost or are you happier to have more modest expenses. This is not a judgement of you. I too chose to live with more modest expenses because paying those taxes just isn’t worth it to me.

  59. 30 year realtor says:

    There are good deals still available in fixer uppers. Deals where investors can profit. Sold 2 properties this week to investors who will profit about $50,000 each on the resale after renovating. You need deep pockets for some of these homes because they are not in habitable condition. The reward is there if you can afford to buy, renovate and carry 2 properties for 6 to 8 months. In the end you get a 15% to $20% discount on one of the largest purchases you will make in your lifetime.

  60. Fast Eddie says:

    30 year,

    High taxes are baked into the cake.

    Understood. And we have no control over the taxes. But, we do have control over the price. No job growth, stagnant wages and the FED at full throttle. Why is that? So, the only thing left is the price of the house. If the attitude is, “you can’t beat ’em, might as well join them” then fine. The price of my house just went up by $30,000 and I want full price, not a penny less.

  61. JJ says:

    High Taxes are baked into cake on good homes which suck. I can easily afford to sell pos split and pay an extra 700K for a great house.

    However, good towns homes in that price range have 24 to 36k property taxes which is not even tax deductable for folks in amt nor building up equity. Just money out the door.

    Tack that onto going from no mortgage to the a 500K mortgage even at 4% which is 2k a month plus higher insurance it is crazy.

    I am using no more services in the bigger house. Also it sucks as I only need bigger house for maybe next ten years tops. Then I will be forced to sell. Due to taxes. Also at my age I wont be paying equity on that loan. And I will have that mortgage long into retirement and if I do a 15 year mortgage payments are large and if I pay cash selling all my munis and stuff kills income stream.

    Also a big house is a funny investment. Technically I could sell my beach condo AND my primary home and buy one kick butt house. But the beach condo throws off enough income to cover the taxes and insurance on the primary as well as all expenses on the condo. So in effect I pay zero a month for housing in the wash. I do pay for repairs.

    So I go from paying zero to thousands each month. Honestly the trade up makes no sense most folks if they have an extra 200K should just keep it in stocks or bonds or if they feel the need for housing exposure buy a second home and rent it out.

    I fully think with rising property taxes and heating bills large high tax homes have very little room to appreciate.

  62. Ragnar says:

    Half the people wouldn’t appeal taxes even if they could, because they like to hear the govt tell them their house rose in value.

  63. Gary, you’re just too early to the game. The prices remain where they are because- ATEOTD- there is somebody out there willing to hit the bid.

    All these buyers will eventually be carried out on their shields- as all latecomers to financialized bonanzas are- but that day is not quite here yet.

    Best you enjoy your current home and sip a fruity drink until the butt-banging starts in earnest.

  64. Also- ATEOTD- New Jersey (like IL and CA) will throw up their hands and default. Everyone holding the worthless paper will get sawed off at the knees, and things will dissolve into a Mogadishu-like swamp of lawlessness and ruin.

    Kinda like Detroit.

  65. Budget some of your housing money for a personal militia. You’re gonna need one.

  66. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat,

    I know what the gig is all about which is why I’m doing what you suggested. It’s either that or jack the price up on my house and let someone else finance my trade.

  67. anon (the good one) says:

    settle down. I made a typing mistake. typed “a” instead of “u”

    “using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?”

  68. Essex says:

    I like spicey cheeses.

  69. chicagofinance (the good one) says:
  70. anon (the good one) says:

    @BarackObama: A clear majority of Americans opposes the House’s demand to defund #Obamacare or shut down the government. http://t.co/yagvSt7mgq

  71. xolepa says:

    (62) I, too, have investment properties that pay my personal residence costs complete. That’s if I want to direct that money there. I have a relatively secure job position so I instead pay out of that income stream to fund a Florida property, new car, and 1 remaining college education. As mentioned in some of my earlier posts, I do have a sizable side business that generates legal paper losses that allow me to offset my regular income substantially and avoid the pitfalls that befall JJ.
    I and my wife also built our home in the early nineties. I was in my mid-thirties then. It was a great risk to us because that year my self employed income (IT consultant) was only $42k due to the severe recession. My wife was raising three children. We survived and in many eyes, prospered.
    Now as JJ has alluded, there are just so many years left to work. Hopefully, I will finish out in about 7 years. At that point, I will sell my big house here in Hunterdon County. No need to keep it. I will venture back and forth between NY state (lake house) and SW Florida. But what do I do with the NJ income properties? That’s right. Screw NJ. I will Section 1031 them and buy in SW Florida. I am testing the waters there and finding decent residential apartment buildings for sale yielding about 10% after expenses. That will enable me to sell in NJ and use the proceeds as down payment for a stepped up mortgage, and most importantly, stepped up basis for depreciation. Those, with God’s help, will be interesting years.

  72. Juice Box says:

    re #71 – Shut it all down.

  73. anon (the good one) says:

    JJ, did u consider buying a condo in Manhattan as investment for rental?

  74. Brian says:

    So, the thousands of other times when you posted “tea tards” you meant to say turds?

    68.anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:01 pm
    settle down. I made a typing mistake. typed “a” instead of “u”

    “using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?”

  75. anon (the good one) says:

    give me the specific example.
    if was I addressing you, may had been one and not the other.

    Brian says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:40 pm
    So, the thousands of other times when you posted “tea tards” you meant to say turds?

    68.anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:01 pm
    settle down. I made a typing mistake. typed “a” instead of “u”

    “using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?”

  76. JJ says:

    I did, but very few condos which drive up price and mainly new construction. In 2009-2011 there was a few that popped on homepath site. Honestly, right now I would just buy another if I had a lot more balls down by long beach area.

    For instance I had a chance last week to buy in a premarket sale a two bedroom condo with $500 maint and $4,800 in property taxes down by long beach. Needed a few grand of work. Nothing major. Was a rental. That unit rents for $2,300 month on a year. Around $1,900 in winter rental and around $4,500 a month in summer if you want to furnish.

    People are scared of buying by water now but not scared to rent. Well as long as it is not a basement type thing.

    The multiplier is wide open.

    In Island park NY tons of little bungalows where owners had no flood insurance. You can fix them for like 40k and buy them for 90K cash and rent them for like $1,600 a month. A $130k investment paying $1,900 rent with extremely low maint. Some of those places are 60-80 years old and this is first water. The little places were going for 280k per sandy and 400K back in 2006.

    Just with school year starting wife would kill me buying another. Plus now that she sees math she realizes the little money after you account for everything. For instance, 300K in munis paying 5% I make 15k, no effort no tax. All in it cost me 300K to buy, close and fix this place it is fun to be managing one, I have some perks I get a beach pass, parking pass, can use beach and between rentals squeeze in a free week or two at beach. But buying unit two gets me nothing. That would be a straight business decision.

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    JJ, did u consider buying a condo in Manhattan as investment for rental?

  77. joyce says:

    back to back cop-outs… and pathetic ones at that.
    Not that I really care, use whatever phrases you want.

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:50 pm
    give me the specific example.

  78. anon (the good one) says:

    JJ, you recommended above leaving you extra $200k cash in the mkt. but that dough will be gone with the 2015 correction. that’s why I asked you about manhattan. In fact, alls is fcuk 401, 529, IRa, once the mkt crashes again

  79. Brian says:

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2013/06/06/northern-new-jersey-continues-to-see-modest-steady-improvement-in-its-housing-market/#comment-555220

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2013/06/18/sp-no-bubble-yet-home-prices-continue-to-rise/#comment-557310

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2013/08/15/no-bubble-in-nj-but-we-could-be-next-to-heat-up/#comment-565200

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2013/06/11/does-a-middle-class-recovery-require-a-housing-recovery/#comment-555571

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2013/06/15/%e2%80%9cgen-y-may-turn-out-to-have-unrealistic-expectations-about-what-they-can-afford%e2%80%9d/#comment-555984

    78.anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:50 pm
    give me the specific example.
    if was I addressing you, may had been one and not the other.

    Brian says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:40 pm
    So, the thousands of other times when you posted “tea tards” you meant to say turds?

    68.anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:01 pm
    settle down. I made a typing mistake. typed “a” instead of “u”

    “using the term “tard” is not politically correct…..or do you care?”

  80. Brian says:

    Grim please unmoderate my comment. Just curious, did the spam filter grab it because of the number of hyperlinks in it?

  81. daddyo says:

    This makes Apple look downright cheap in comparison. This is Macbook Pro pricing territory

    Your $899 number refers to the Surface 2 Pro – which is a full featured tablet including Windows 8 Pro version and Intel’s new Haswell processor. It competes very well with MBP as it should – it’s a tablet with notebook capabilities. You can run all windows software on it.

    The dog is the Surface 2, with the RT operating system. Significantly cheaper, but zero ecosystem. The only apps you can use are from the microsoft appstore. It will do as well as the original Surface with RT OS – which was horrible.

  82. Sima says:

    Forget real estate appreciating in NJ, because the jobs are leaving, even the lousy contract jobs.
    Two recruiters that my husband talked to today said that there are NO jobs available in NJ at this time, and is he willing to relocate? This is both for regular and contract jobs.
    He hasn’t even heard from low-balling Indian recruiters lately.
    This is far worse than last year.
    It may be over for NJ…..

  83. nwnj says:

    According to google, anon used the term teatards ten times. https://www.google.com/#q=site:njrereport.com+teatards

  84. Lurker says:

    Morris Home Values Drop More Than 13% Since 2008
    New Jerseyans pay $2,342 in housing compared to national median of $1,460, according to an NJ Spotlight report.

    http://montville.patch.com/groups/real-estate/p/morris-home-values-drop-more-than-13-since-2008-montville

  85. Anon E. Moose says:

    anon [71];

    Leave it to you to cite a CNBC(DNC) vanity push poll. Let me ask you, do you favor letting your family be raped if it means averting a nuclear holocaust? You’re not in favor of nuclear holocaust, are you? I’ll put you down for wanting your family violated, then.

  86. 1987 Condo says:

    #85..it would not surprise me if the majority of NJ homes experience a 2%-3% annual decline for each of the next 10-15 years as the local economy “normalizes”. Of course, certain prestigious areas where execs and bankers, etc live, will retain values better..

  87. grim says:

    85 – Those numbers are fantastic – lots of places around the country wish their prices only dropped 13% since 2008.

  88. grim says:

    Case Shiller HPI – NY Metro

    Low Tier (Under $270359)
    Up 6.7% YOY
    Up 12.8% from Trough (April 2012) – This is a non-SA comparison – so take it with a grain of salt

    Mid Tier ($270359 – $444547)
    Up 4.5% YOY
    Up 8.2% from Trough (March 2012)

    High Tier (Over $444547)
    Up 3.1% YOY
    Up 8.1% from Trough (March 2012)

    Aggregate (Overall Market)
    Up 3.5% YOY
    Up 8.6% from Trough (March 2012)

  89. 1987 Condo says:

    10-year Treasury yields will drop to 2.1% in a year: HSBC

    September 24, 2013, 11:35 AM
    .With Treasury prices on track to gain for a ninth trading day in 10 sessions, the selloff that gripped the government debt market over the past four months may be starting to abate.

    HSBC Global Research strategists believe the 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR -1.96% yield, which moves inversely to price, is poised to retrace its rise, falling to 2.1% in the next 12 months. It was at 2.66% on Tuesday.

    Others agree, especially as the time frame for a Federal Reserve cut to its $85 billion in monthly bond buys gets pushed out, and as a fight over the federal budget heats up. Both are a boon to Treasurys.

    Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., wrote in a Tuesday report that the 10-year note yield could cut in half its 1 percentage point rise between May and the beginning of September. That would put the yield at 2.50%, down 50 basis points from its peak of just about 3% earlier in the month.

    Barclays cut its year-end target on the benchmark note to 2.85% last week, down 25 basis points from its previous forecast.

    It’s no secret that the Treasury market has a “gravitational pull” on other asset classes and the move lower in yields “should have a sizeable impact on the entire financial landscape,” said the HSBC strategists, led by Fredrik Nerbrand, global head of asset allocation. In a Monday report, they outlined how other global markets may gain as a result:

    “We find that, during previous periods following a sharp rise in yields, fixed-income assets with greater economic exposure, such as credit and EM debt, tend to outperform. We also find that the USD tends to depreciate, and that commodities, and oil in particular, strengthen.

    “As a result, we continue to hold 36% of our portfolio in nominal U.S. Treasurys. We also adjust the composition of our fixed-income allocation by moving out of cash and TIPS (inflation is not an issue at this point), and into EM hard- and local-currency debt, where the selloff has been aggressive in comparison to previous bond routs. In addition, we add to our high-yield and oil positions in order to take advantage of continued strong liquidity flows.”
    – Ben Eisen
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/24/treasury-yields-will-fall-back-to-earth-strategists-say/

  90. JJ says:

    Every crash is just a buying opportunity for dollar cost averaging folk.

    I guy a six pack of beer for five bucks, tommorrow they are two for one I buy more they after three for one I buy even more. Stocks are same thing.

    I have my money split 1/3 bonds, 1/3 stocks and by buying second place increased real estate.

    BTW I am buy and hold so I never planning on selling anything. Plan on leaving everything to my unborn grandchildren in a trust they cant touch until they are 75 and have some wisdom. Many could my money really grow with just another 100 years or so of dollar cost averaging.

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 24, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    JJ, you recommended above leaving you extra $200k cash in the mkt. but that dough will be gone with the 2015 correction. that’s why I asked you about manhattan. In fact, alls is fcuk 401, 529, IRa, once the mkt crashes again

  91. jj (91)-

    not that we really need you jumping in here and yelling BTFD…

  92. JJ says:

    Every day is a great day!!!!!!!!!!

    Bulls hung like donkeys love BTFD

  93. Ron Jermany says:

    YOu rang?

    Bulls hung like donkeys…

  94. JJ says:

    This man is doing the lords work. God Bless him

    AIG CEO compares outrage over Wall St. bonuses to ‘lynching’ in Deep South
    September 24, 2013, 3:19 PM

    This time American International Group AIG +0.47% CEO Robert Benmosche, while assuring us that “too big to fail” has been resolved, said he doesn’t get the national outrage about AIG’s big bonuses, compares the public outrage to that of a lynch mob in the South.

    The uproar over bonuses “was intended to stir public anger, to get everybody out there with their pitch forks and their hangman nooses, and all that-sort of like what we did in the Deep South [decades ago]. And I think it was just as bad and just as wrong.”

  95. grim says:

    Realtors take note:

    15 N.J. schools named as national ‘Blue Ribbon’ winners

    Fifteen New Jersey schools are among 286 National Blue Ribbon Schools for 2013, named today by U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan.

    Five Catholic schools, six county vocational-technical schools and a Yeshiva are among the list of honored schools in New Jersey.

    Also named as 2013 Blue Ribbon Schools were Dover, Harrison and Wildwood high schools.

    Schools were named to the national list because of their overall academic excellence, or their progress in improving academic achievement.

  96. Essex says:

    Job Creators are special.

    That’s over and above our payments to the big companies for energy and food and housing and health care and all our tech devices. It’s $6,000 that no family would have to pay if we truly lived in a competitive but well-regulated free-market economy.

    The $6,000 figure is an average, which means that low-income families are paying less. But it also means that families (households) making over $72,000 are paying more than $6,000 to the corporations.

    1. $870 for Direct Subsidies and Grants to Companies

    The Cato Institute estimates that the US federal government spends $100 billion a year on corporate welfare. That’s an average of $870 for each one of America’s 115 million families. Cato notes that this includes “cash payments to farmers and research funds to high-tech companies, as well as indirect subsidies, such as funding for overseas promotion of specific US products and industries…It does not include tax preferences or trade restrictions.”

    It does include payments to 374 individuals on the plush Upper East Side of New York City and others who own farms, including Bruce Springsteen, Bon Jovi and Ted Turner. Wealthy heir Mark Rockefeller received $342,000 to NOT farm, to allow his Idaho land to return to its natural state.

  97. daddyo says:

    Dover, Harrison, and Wildwood…

    What exactly are the qualifications to be a blue ribbon school district?

  98. Juice Box says:

    re: #96 – Absolutely a $3 million bonus vs a $5 million bonus is just like hanging dead by the neck.

    He has already backpedaled, since he may get called to testify in the House of Reps which you cannot do from Dubrovnik or Palm Beach.

    In Washington, Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D., Md.), Ranking Member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, called Tuesday afternoon for Mr. Benmosche’s resignation. “As the leading critic of AIG’s lavish spending before and after its taxpayer funded bailout — and as the son of sharecroppers who actually experienced lynchings in their communities — I find it unbelievably appalling that Mr. Benmosche equates the violent repression of the African American people with congressional efforts to prevent the waste of taxpayer dollars.”

  99. JSMC says:

    #97

    Also named as 2013 Blue Ribbon Schools were Dover, Harrison and Wildwood high schools.

    Grim is doing a great job making me super nervous for tonight…

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    Only one Bergen County school on that list? Yes, realtors, take note!

  101. grim says:

    102 – I think once you win one, you get to keep it for a while, you don’t need to reapply every year. I’m sure at this point, most BC schools already have theirs.

  102. grim says:

    100 – the “we” is telling…

    “was intended to stir public anger, to get everybody out there with their pitch forks and their hangman nooses, and all that-sort of like what we did in the Deep South [decades ago]. And I think it was just as bad and just as wrong.”

    “we” indeed. I suppose if you were the lyncher and not the lynchee, the emotion of the situation might be a bit different.

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  104. Bystander says:

    Sima,

    Yet the money is coming from somewhere as 600, 700k homes are selling. I get calls from recruiters offering perhaps $110k a year either through hourly rate or, once in a blue moon, a FT assignment. Sorry I have 15 years experience and a masters degree so $110k is a joke. I know that many unemployed will take it..but seriously half your take home pay goes to mortgage and taxes. I know one guy that works in Ops and his hedge fund outsourced middle office and back office. He became employee of other company but not by choice. Functions are in India now so new co. offered him position in NYC or Philly area. He is taking Philly b/c his NY pay will not support a decent existence. He can have a good life in PA. I think a lot will be coming to this realization.

  105. daddy (99)-

    Fill out the forms and pay the fee. No kidding.

    “What exactly are the qualifications to be a blue ribbon school district?”

  106. Lynching a few AIG bastards would be a nice start in cleaning up this hellhole of a country.

  107. Brian says:

    I think some of those belong to Ottoman.

    nwnj says:
    September 24, 2013 at 1:57 pm
    According to google, anon used the term teatards ten times. https://www.google.com/#q=site:njrereport.com+teatards

  108. Brian says:

    They need you more than you need them.

    JSMC says:
    September 24, 2013 at 4:54 pm
    #97

    Also named as 2013 Blue Ribbon Schools were Dover, Harrison and Wildwood high schools.

    Grim is doing a great job making me super nervous for tonight…

  109. grim says:

    High priced homes are moving, looks like 1,200 houses (give or take) have closed with sale prices of over $1,000,000 so far this year in North Jersey.

  110. Bystander says:

    Another complaint about NYC job market, recruiters see my experience and contact me with salaries that they know damn well that I won’t accept (unless completely desperate). I tell them no and then they say we know pay is low but do you know anyone who will accept it? These recruiters and banks can go f themselves. You want me to provide you with people who you can low-ball in pay? In doing so, I further the decimation of liveable wages for hundred of thousands of people who are not part of the chosen few that support front office.

    Here is the only way to play the low-ball pay game in contracting. Have a good chunk in savings then take one of these 50/hr. jobs and bust your a$$ for three months. Two months prior to critical milestones, tell them you received another offer at double your rate (even if you don’t). Be respectful and tactful but let them squirm and pay..or you leave at critical juncture. This is the only leverage that you have with companies and recruiters in contract world.

  111. grim says:

    If I expand that search to $700,000 and up, I’m somewhere around 11,000.

  112. grim says:

    Not including Hudson.

  113. Bystander says:

    Over/under on how long before Benmosche plays the anti-semite card to deflect his comments. My guess is tomorrow.

  114. Ragnar says:

    Scrapple,
    All competitors win a blue ribbon. How soon till America resembles “Pink Flamingos”? That’s a step down from Idiocracy.

  115. ragnar (117)-

    Pretty soon, all contestants in Amerika will stand to earn a piece of hot lead between the eyes. Then we’ll separate the men from the sheep.

  116. Libturd at home says:

    I am officially changing my name.

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    [101] JSMC

    you should be nervous. I can now compare firsthand a blue ribbony NJ school district (brigadoon) with a PA blue ribbon school district (U-CF). And there isn’t much of a comparison. For per-pupil spending, class sizes, facilities, and transportation, UCF blows away the Brig.

    In fairness, it helps that UCFSD is an actual blue ribbon district and the Brig is a wanna-be. And plenty of brig grads will go to top schools, but that says more about who their parents are than anything about the school district.

  118. stu (118)-

    Good that you realized Turdblossom was taken.

  119. chicagofinance (the good one) says:

    GTG dedicated to JJ:
    http://www.eatatvidalia.com/

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