Predictions 2015!

This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.

Ground Rules

Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2015 or December 31st, 2015, please specify.

Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).

You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.

You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.

Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.

Real Estate
National
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB

New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other

Commodities
Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)

Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets

Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS

Foreclosures
Delinquency Rate
Foreclosure Rate

Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate

Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

188 Responses to Predictions 2015!

  1. grim says:

    Thought this one was interesting, not just because I live here, but because of the scale associated with wholesale eliminating communities in flood zones. This represents an additional 114 homes, which is on top of all the tear downs that have already taken place in areas like Hoffman’s Grove, etc (more than 100 homes). I believe these two projects eliminate the bulk of Wayne’s “flood problem”, or at least the communities with repetitive severe flooding that seem to get all the media coverage. For those who have driven the loop around Willowbrook, this buyout will eliminate all the riverfront bungalows outside of the mall loop and behind Costco.

    From the Record:

    Wayne awarded largest payout in FEMA history

    After years of dealing with severe flooding, Wayne Township has been awarded the largest payout in the history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Severe Repetitive Loss program in the amount of $31,476,299.

    The funding, which was part of the Flood Mitigation Assistance project, was applied for competitively by communities across the country. It will go towards the acquisition of 114 homes throughout the township’s flood-prone areas including Riverlawn Drive, Riverside Drive, Edith Court, Hobson Avenue, and Fayette Avenue.

    “This program is 100 percent funded. Last time Wayne Township had to kick in 10 percent,” said Mayor Chris Vergano. “We’re obviously very happy with the outcome this time around.”

    Initially how the grant works is the township puts out the money first and then FEMA reimburses them. At the Dec. 17 meeting, the Town Council passed an ordinance for $10 million to get the ball rolling. These funds cover for the purchase of the properties, demolition of the homes, as well as consultant and appraiser services. Appraisals are set to begin this month and have 90 days to be completed, at which point the township makes an offer to homeowners.

    The next step is the closing, demolition, and then making the properties deed restricted so nothing can be built on them to allow the area to go back to a natural state and the grass to absorb some of the flood waters.

    “The logic is Wayne has had so much damage in the past that it’s actually cheaper for the federal government to award us a substantial amount of money as opposed to paying out claims for flood damage homes,” Vergano said.

  2. Toxic Crayons says:

    I predict De Blasio will be good for NJ real estate as NYC decends back into the glory days of the 1970’s and 1980’s.

    Stoppage That Hits De Blasio Hardest
    December 30, 2014 by Daniel Greenfield

    http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/nypd-cops-figure-out-a-work-stoppage-that-hits-de-blasio-hardest/

    Bloomberg took their firearms away and now De Blasio neutered the Cops.

  3. grim says:

    Good video on Riverside/Riverlawn:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3G5oa1CASg

    Clot I think you will especially like Wheeler’s style.

  4. Liquor Luge says:

    nice spacer in that guy’s ear

  5. Liquor Luge says:

    I predict De Blasio will have an affair with Robin Byrd.

  6. grim says:

    The part where he rants on consumerism while walking through Bloomingdales covered in shit is fantastic.

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    As an environmentalist (MIT PhD ’73) married to an economist (MIT PhD ’71) for 40+ years, I have reached the following conclusion: every student in Econ 101 should be given a petri dish with a swab of bacteria, and told to write a report on the results. They would learn that the colony grows exponentially until it consumes all the nutrients, or is poisoned by its own toxic waste — unless you take extraordinary care to limit the size of the colony, replenish the nutrients, and deal with the waste. The problem is, economists are taught that growth is sustainable indefinitely. As my friend Herman says, “Economies are rooted to the earth at both ends..” ~ Jane

  8. chicagofinance says:

    I predict in September that the 10 year anniversary of this blog will come and go, and grim will fail to have a GTG in celebration because he is a hipster slacker geek. He will be more interested in transplanting beard hair on his face to his upper chest so he can have a hirsute open collar look.

  9. grim says:

    Holy damn 10 years?

  10. Liquor Luge says:

    RE will wander in the wilderness for 50-100 years. Much gnashing of teeth.

  11. Liquor Luge says:

    10 years is just the warmup. The Chinese water torture will continue, unabated.

  12. chicagofinance says:

    pitch perfect…..
    I covered Mario Cuomo when he was New York’s secretary of state, lieutenant governor and governor for nearly 20 years, for three news organizations, and what a strange, infuriating and ultimately tragic experience it turned out to be.
    To nearly all who knew Mario Cuomo well, he was an underachieving enigma — brilliant yet indecisive, accomplished as a lawyer yet riddled with self-doubt as a politician, an initially popular governor who was eventually booted from office for failing to use that popularity to lead New York in a direction that would have made this a better state.
    Early in Cuomo’s service as lieutenant governor, Robert Morgado, Gov. Hugh Carey’s longtime chief of staff, startled me with the observation that Carey was convinced there was “something odd with Mario” — that he was arrogant, angry and often resentful toward those he worked with in public life.
    As the years passed, I heard dozens of others close to Cuomo, including some who worked with him every day, echo Morgado’s words.
    Mario Cuomo was one of the nation’s greatest orators, but his sometimes-dazzling speeches — like his keynote to the Democratic National Convention in San Francisco in 1984 — almost always lacked answers to the problems they addressed.
    Cuomo insisted he was a believing Roman Catholic, but then he went to war with his church on the theologically crucial issue of abortion.
    He was someone who claimed to have foresworn political labels but was actually a quintessential political liberal and, usually, proud of it.
    People who knew him well often joked that Mario Cuomo was someone who was ready with a question for every answer.
    He was called New York’s “Hamlet on the Hudson’’ because of a painful penchant for delaying — usually in the grips of agonizing indecision — virtually every important decision he had to make, most famously on whether he would run for president in 1988 and in 1992, years when the Democratic nomination could have been his for the seeking.
    Cuomo, a brilliant and accomplished lawyer in his pre-political life, reinforced that “Hamlet’’ image when he repeatedly told friends he was comfortable serving as a defense lawyer even in cases involving accused murderers but could never be comfortable as a prosecutor because, he said, he never would feel sure enough that someone was guilty and therefore deserving of punishment.
    While Cuomo could be charming in one-on-one conversations, could show a remarkable degree of caring when dealing with individual human tragedies, and could put aside ideological differences to help political adversaries — including the New York Post in the early 1990s, when it faced severe financial difficulties — he could also be arrogant and even cruel, browbeating opponents, abandoning longtime allies, and even turning on his own son and one-time key political adviser, New York’s current governor, Andrew.
    Cuomo presided over the state’s highest office during the Reagan/Bush era, and because he was such a strong proponent of traditional liberal values — higher taxes to fund state spending on social programs, opposition to the death penalty, an unrelenting defense of abortion rights — he became a darling of the political left and of many in the national media.
    But his legacy as governor was anything but positive.
    Gov. Mario Cuomo raised literally hundreds of state taxes to fund ever-expanding social programs and developed fiscal gimmicks, including the notorious scheme to “sell’’ the Attica Correctional Facility back to the state to pad public revenues so he could spend even more.
    Cuomo rejected a chance to end the hugely expensive tolls on the New York State Thruway and he literally destroyed, under pressure from environmental activists, the Long Island Lighting Co. and its $5 billion Shoreham nuclear power plant, saddling Long Island residents to this day with some of the highest utility costs in the nation.
    Mario Cuomo presided over the widening loss of upstate jobs, industry and population, of which he was well aware. Either because he didn’t know how to address the problem or because, more likely, a deep streak of fatalism left him believing there was nothing he could do about it, the problem has continued to this day.
    Although he didn’t initially realize he was doing so, David Garth — Cuomo’s longtime friend and political guru, who, coincidentally, died just a few weeks ago — encapsulated Mario Cuomo’s failures as governor a few months before he was turned out of office in 1994.
    Garth was overseeing Cuomo’s bid for a fourth term and he was pressed at the Democratic nominating convention by several reporters to name some of the governor’s accomplishments during his term in office.
    After several seconds of cold silence, a clearly uncomfortable Garth responded, “Haven’t you seen the new rest stops on the Thruway? They’re really something.’’
    Such a singularly meager legacy from 12 years in office explained why a few months later, Cuomo — the great liberal champion who might very well have become president — was defeated by a little-known freshman state senator and former mayor of Peekskill, one George Elmer Pataki.

  13. anon (the good one) says:

    hey Chifi,

    Fukc you

  14. Anon E. Moose says:

    Chi [12];

    I had always assumed that the elder passed on running for Pres because of mob ties in the closet; that he pushed his son into politics because Junior could run in his place without that background.

    About five years ago Cuomo spoke to an industry dinner I attend; we’ve had lots of former politicians in their twilight years (Koch comes to mind).

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    anon (the good one),

    It’s tough to connect real accomplishments with l1beral ideology, isn’t it? I understand your frustration; your ideas look wonderful on paper only to result in severe, myopic disease in reality. Pragmatism and l1beralism is like comparing gasoline to matches.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Holy damn 10 years?

    Yes. And we’re still discussing the early stages of a correction that is in denial. Yet, the pretenders and cheerleaders on this forum believe that events happen every 5 minutes and all is well in terms of the housing market. If you pom pom wavers are so confident, then why are we still at zero percent?

  17. 30 year realtor says:

    I predict modest price growth for North Jersey communities with good schools and convenient NYC commutes. Other areas will be sideways.

    There will be a substantial influx of REO properties hitting the market in 2015. The number of new REO will increase each month and will not peak until sometime in 2016.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    I was a kid in Queens while he was in office and I distinctly remember being in a bar with a TV (rare back then) on St. Marks & 2nd when Pataki beat him. Letterman went on for days and days just saying “Pataki”…..but it gave me pause……how the hell could that have happened? It was an early life lesson…….most of the accolades now are really an anachronism, because people are giving credit for revamping NYS, when Cuomo let everything rot while in office. It is really the work of two mayors (sieg heil) Giuliani and Bloomberg from almost exactly the point that Cuomo left office that revamped NYC, and that flooded Albany’s coffers……..revisionist history to state otherwise.

    anon (the good one) says:
    January 2, 2015 at 10:05 am
    hey Chifi,

    Fukc you

  19. Ragnar says:

    One-year market predictions are a sucker’s game, for entertainment mostly. However, I’d like to direct your attention to a pretty useful 7 year asset class forecast from GMO, a large investment manager that has a decent methodology and track record with their long run forecasts:
    http://www.gmo.com/America/Research/Str.htm
    You may need to register to read, but here’s the results for their inflation adjusted annualized return predictions for the next 7 years for various asset classes (as of 11/30/14):
    Equities
    US Large Caps: -1.9%
    US smallcap -2.9%
    US High Quality +0.6%
    Intl Large 1.3%
    Intl Small 1.8%
    Emerging 3.5%
    Bonds:
    US bonds -0.5%
    Intl Hedged -3.2%
    Emerging debt 2.2%
    Inflation linked: -0.1%
    Cash: -0.3%
    Other:
    Timber: 5.4%
    They assume inflation mean reverts to 2.2% in the long run.
    These forecasts imply pretty poor nominal annualized returns over the next 7 years, basically zero in the US, low to mid single digit globally. Well below long term historic averages. I suspect this is due to an assumption that current above average multiples and profit margins revert toward a long run average.

  20. Juice Box says:

    re# 16 – Gary – re: “why are we still at zero percent.”

    Savers serve no useful economic purpose in today’s world.

  21. grim says:

    So I should double my 529 contributions?

  22. Ragnar says:

    Government economic planners are at war against savings. They think savings takes away from today’s consumption, which is the extent of their Keynesian model time horizons and their attention spans. We’re living in a world where they give Nobel prizes to people who advocate that the purchasing power of money be trashed in order to create human stampedes into shopping malls.

  23. Ragnar says:

    For people wanting a brief, easily readable book that can help one see through the garbage in economic policy and economic news reporting, this book is good, and it’s free. Written by Henry Hazlitt, once the NY Times’ economics editor in the 30s and 40s, before being asked to leave by a Sulzberger for supporting sound money.
    http://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    I notice that the folks on this blog who lean right always post with impeccable, insightful details while those who champion utopian visions belch incoherent sludge.

    Any questions?

  25. Thurston H0w3ll 3rd says:

    I see the Randian sniffers are going berserk when some one does not challenged them

    By the way, have anybody noticed how the number of comments go down anytime the Faux Thruthiness ideas come out.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w20625.pdf

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    There will be a substantial influx of REO properties hitting the market in 2015.

    Does that include communities with good schools and convenient commutes to NYC?

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    Thurston,

    I can see you are the product of a public school education.

  28. Juice Box says:

    re # 21 – Depends on which Mutual Fund you have.

    I have Utah’s plan aggressive domestic, it returned 15% this year.

    S&P 500 however was up 12.39% for 2014. So not so aggressive I guess.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Thurston,

    I’ll rephrase it so you understand: Are you ben havin a pubik skool edmakayshun .? .

  30. grim says:

    28 – T Rowe Alaska – Portfolio 2030 – Up 13.48%

  31. njescapee says:

    Oh yeah memories of NYC from back in the 70s. We had a nice apartment in a quiet Woodside Queens neighborhood. In a matter of months our neighbor across the street was stabbed to death less than 30 feet from our front window then our brand new Chevy Blazer was stolen 2 weeks after we purchased it. We left NYC and never looked back the day after the July 1977 blackout. Oh yeah Son of Sam came soon after. Tell me that can’t happen again. What a sh!thole!

  32. Toxic Crayons says:

    “Wealth Inequality” in the United states was at peak….just before the second world war….and then decreased as the United States was the only country left with the infrastructure to manufacture at scale. Labor in the United States had a monopoly….and business owners needed the US worker.

    As countries rebuilt, and competing products from foreign manufacturers entered the US market, it put pressure on domestic manufactures and the US Labor market. This also meant improvement for the developing world (a positive) and a rising Global Middle Class. The solution…if the government is to be involved at all…is for the US government to relieve domestic businesses of taxation and barriers to entry….and for them to encourage competition and innovation….so that domestically based companies can better compete on a global scale.

    Thurston H0w3ll 3rd says:
    January 2, 2015 at 12:02 pm
    I see the Randian sniffers are going berserk when some one does not challenged them

    By the way, have anybody noticed how the number of comments go down anytime the Faux Thruthiness ideas come out.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w20625.pdf

  33. chicagofinance says:

    The only way you could truly knock the cover off the ball this year was to be full-on U.S. equities only (excepting India), and then have the prescience to own healthcare WITHOUT big pharma and the transports piece of industrial……also a kicker could be owning energy until about August when you would completely sell out your position. Otherwise, going north of 15% would be a fcuking trick….

    Juice Box says:
    January 2, 2015 at 12:10 pm
    re # 21 – Depends on which Mutual Fund you have.

    I have Utah’s plan aggressive domestic, it returned 15% this year.

    S&P 500 however was up 12.39% for 2014. So not so aggressive I guess.

  34. nwnj says:

    2015 will be another banner year for the Oblamer imbicile army. Standards will continue to be lowered everywhere. Anon will be promoted a rank.

  35. Essex says:

    35. I wouldn’t trust you to manage the profits from a paper route.

  36. joyce says:

    (2)
    “I’m concerned about my safety,” the cop added. “I want to go to home to my wife and kids.”

    if you’re that concerned, quit your job… no one is forcing you to work.

  37. Essex says:

    27. Where did you matriculate Einstein?

  38. 30 year realtor says:

    There will be REO everywhere but the bulk will be urban. Just looked at 3 properties in Upper Saddle River scheduled for sheriff sale on the 9th.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    Essex [37],

    Parochial schools, K through 12.

    Everyone agreed that we already had two years of college under our belt by the time we graduated high school.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “This book should be called “Austrian Economics for Dummies”. Austrian/Classic economics had fallen in favor for the more empirical (read, more mathematical) Keynesian model for a reason; you can’t explain a social science like economics in a tiny book using nothing but words. Second, and this is my short analysis; whoever wrote this book does not know about history. History has taught us that: the market does NOT fix itself, ZERO regulation is not good (but too much is not good either), gold is not a good standard (after the worldly great depression, the countries who ditched the gold were the first ones to rise from the depression), higher taxes do NOT interfere with economic growth (the 50’s had very high taxes, but the GDP was high but the author didn’t know that in 1946), fixed prices do not work, etc.”

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 11:58 am
    For people wanting a brief, easily readable book that can help one see through the garbage in economic policy and economic news reporting, this book is good, and it’s free. Written by Henry Hazlitt, once the NY Times’ economics editor in the 30s and 40s, before being asked to leave by a Sulzberger for supporting sound money.
    http://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson

  41. Libturd in Union says:

    ChiFi:

    Did really well with CNI – transport and UNH – healthcare. Wasn’t heavily invested in the oil patch, though the club bailed on SDRL first week in October.

    Did go long US equities for most of the year and our 401Ks were paid handsomely for it.

    All in all, a banner year for the early retirement plan. Now if we could only figure out the secret to successfully raising our overly stubborn and determined 2nd child.

    The Mad Loot club had it’s worst calendar year versus the benchmarks unfortunately pulling in about 7%. KORS, AHGP and LKQ and even the Google were mainly responsible for it. On the bright side though, October through December have us nearly doubling the indexes so hopefully the trend is our friend. When it’s all said and done, we are approaching our ten year anniversary in April with an 11% annual return with all fees included and I’d argue with minimal risk. Sure beats laddering bonds.
    Below is our portfolio if anyone cares. The total portfolio percentage does not add up to 100% since we purchased a couple of new holdings late December that I didn’t include.

    Holding % of Portfolio 2014 Return
    Keurig Green Mou (GMCR)  1.4%  295.3%
    Gentex Cp (GNTX)  0.8%  220.5%
    UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)  4.4%  46.8%
    Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (ULTA)  5.5%  39.0%
    Echo Global Logistics Inc (ECHO)  8.2%  39.0%
    F5 Network Inc (FFIV)  6.2%  36.2%
    FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)  8.0%  31.2%
    Home Depot Inc (HD)  0.1%  30.1%
    Stryker Corp (SYK)  0.0%  25.5%
    Canadian National Railway (CNI)  6.0%  24.4%
    Resmed Inc (RMD)  1.3%  21.5%
    Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)  5.4%  16.0%
    HEICO Corp (HEI)  9.2%  5.1%
    Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. Cl (CTSH)  6.0%  2.7%
    Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI)  8.4%  -4.7%
    Google Inc Cl A (GOOGL)  3.0%  -5.0%
    LKQ Corp (LKQ)  6.7%  -8.3%
    Google Inc C (GOOG)  2.2%  -10.9%
    Michael K0rs Holdings Limited (K0RS)  7.1%  -16.6%
    Alliance Holdings Gp (AHGP)  4.6%  -23.6%

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Just looked at 3 properties in Upper Saddle River scheduled for sheriff sale on the 9th.

    Does a potential buyer with 20% to put down and an 840 FICO have a shot at any of these houses?

  43. 1987 Condo says:

    #39….interesting…my son just said that his junior year at college was the first year “harder” than at SHP.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Further down the Foreclosure list scheduled for March.

    6 beds 5.5 baths 6,888 sqft

    Approx. Upset*: $1,850,655.27

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1-Winding-Way-Saddle-River-NJ-07458/38030488_zpid/

  45. Toxic Crayons says:

    NYC Mayor de Blasio gets ‘Bronx Cheer’ during NYPD graduation speech

    http://www.examiner.com/article/nyc-mayor-de-blasio-gets-bronx-cheer-during-nypd-graduation-speech

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    1987 Condo,

    SHP – Seton Hall Prep?

  47. Libturd in Union says:

    I think a lot of the high school vs. college preparedness argument falls on personal responsibility rather than the private vs. public option. Chances are that most of us who find this blog to be somewhat of a cerebral form of entertainment did quite well in both college and high school, regardless of how it was funded. Those morons who spent their frosh year in remedial math and language arts are most likely spending their free internet time looking for the best fragrance of Axe spray or are looking up movie quotes. Some might even be reliving their past by downloading Depeche Mode videos on Youtube.

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The basic idea of this book basically focuses on the idea of Pareto Efficiency (which is the economic idea that a policy should benefit all or it should not be undertaken). He takes Pareto Efficiency to extremes and uses it to basically launch into an attack on any wealth redistribution. The major criticism is that no economic policy could ever benefit every single person.

    Many of his ideas are flawed:
    High taxes discourage production: in fact from 1949-79, when highest tax rate was 70-90%, GDP grew at 2.4%, then when taxes were cut (1979-90) GDP growth was 2%. So in fact high taxes don’t necessarily mean low production.

    Price fixing is not good, even as far as minimum wage should be abolished. But these price fixing (including rent control) are there for the poor. Price controls are placed when the free market allocates the poor less than a fair share of a good. This applies for minimum wage. Minimum wage is there to protect the poor, not the middle class or rich, who are often not working at minimum wage. Minimum wage may decrease the profits of a company and increase cost to the consumer, but this allows some redistribution from the more well off to the less well off. If we abolish minimum wage, it is the poor who suffer. Cut the minimum wage, people would have to work harder to earn the same amount. Minimum wage might not be efficient for the rich and well off, but a society is better off when more are protected.

    Overall, this flawed analysis highlights how some economic policy is there to benefit the rich.”

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 11:58 am
    For people wanting a brief, easily readable book that can help one see through the garbage in economic policy and economic news reporting, this book is good, and it’s free. Written by Henry Hazlitt, once the NY Times’ economics editor in the 30s and 40s, before being asked to leave by a Sulzberger for supporting sound money.
    http://mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    48- Rags, are you seeing some of the flaws with your thought process when it comes to economics. Too simple and extreme of a view.

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    Libturd [47],

    And yet others are posting twitter blurps touting the benefits of wealth redistribution or waiting for the great pumpkin a.k.a. wage inflation as they pull their pud.

  51. Libturd in Union says:

    Gary,
    It occurs to me that those who purport the extremes as a solution for all are really only concerned about themselves. Be it politics, religion, economics, etc.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Economy will not improve without wage inflation. So keep thinking that it won’t come. You can’t take much more from the general consumer without tanking the economy. They have been getting pounded for over 30 years with stagflation, and you think it will continue? If you don’t provide a means for the consumer to purchase products, there will be no market. Trust me, wage inflation will come, everything is not going to crash into oblivion. The wealthy elite know that if wage inflation doesn’t come and the economy crashes, they will no longer be wealthy. Nobody will!!!

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 2, 2015 at 1:38 pm
    Libturd [47],

    And yet others are posting twitter blurps touting the benefits of wealth redistribution or waiting for the great pumpkin a.k.a. wage inflation as they pull their pud.

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumpkin [48];

    Have you ever had a thought of your own, or is it all cut and paste from the comments section?

  54. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumpkin [52];

    See, when you’re not C&P, its stuff like this:

    Trust me, wage inflation will come, everything is not going to crash into oblivion. The wealthy elite know that if wage inflation doesn’t come and the economy crashes, they will no longer be wealthy. Nobody will!!!

    You really think that the truly wealthy need wage inflation? The wealthy have income-producing assets; that will keep producing income (at varying nominal rates) whether the plebes make $10 or $15 or $7 per hour.

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Economy will not improve without wage inflation.

    I thought the economy was doing great? Isn’t that what the left is telling us?

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m one of the few people on this board that actually comes up with my own original thoughts on a regular basis. I was waiving the wage inflation flag back when no one gave it a chance in hell. Now it’s starting to go mainstream. So don’t tell me I copy and paste other people’s thoughts. I don’t read a book or article, and then try to pass it off to show how smart I am. I put these past two posts in quotes. They are from a book review off amazon.com. They are intelligent reviews that are worth sharing.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    January 2, 2015 at 1:45 pm
    Pumpkin [48];

    Have you ever had a thought of your own, or is it all cut and paste from the comments section?

  57. Libturd in Union says:

    It seems like Harry Reid forgot to push the pin completely into his Universal Gym stack of weights.

  58. Libturd in Union says:

    Passion Fruit,

    Anyone who spends the time writing a book review in the comments section of Amazon has way too much time on their hands. Like Anon, the Twitter Parrot.

  59. Ragnar says:

    Little Pumpikins,
    Glad to see that the offer of a free book to educate you set you off on a journey to google some article that tells you that you don’t need to read it. Almost makes me wish for some official to slap some hardcore rent controls on your rental properties. If that happens, don’t forget to go copy-paste from Hazlitt’s book in your letter to the newspaper.

    Your little word salads allegedly about economics have no effect on my understanding of the topic. However I do like to keep up with the popular delusions cherished by the “common man” and their various popular cyber-pseudo-intellectuals, so do please keep them coming.

  60. Libturd in Union says:

    Someone ought to check into Reid’s never ending list of accidents. This could be a case of Medicare fraud.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have to think deeper on the issue. The rich don’t know need monetary wage inflation for themselves, they need it for the participants (consumer) in the economy. The rich need wage inflation for the economy because the consumer will not be able to afford products for long if their wages remain in the trenches of stagflation, while the costs of living go up. You will have a breakdown in society that will result in a revolution. In revolutions, the rich lose everything. Wage inflation has been happening to the 1% the past 30 years, but has left everyone else out. They have taken all the gains in the economy. If you think this can keep up and still have a consumer based economy to talk about, you are lost.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    January 2, 2015 at 1:49 pm
    Pumpkin [52];

    See, when you’re not C&P, its stuff like this:

    Trust me, wage inflation will come, everything is not going to crash into oblivion. The wealthy elite know that if wage inflation doesn’t come and the economy crashes, they will no longer be wealthy. Nobody will!!!

    You really think that the truly wealthy need wage inflation? The wealthy have income-producing assets; that will keep producing income (at varying nominal rates) whether the plebes make $10 or $15 or $7 per hour.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Harry Reid’s injuries seem more consistent with getting beat up.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It wasn’t from some article. It was from some intellectuals that took the time out of their day to put forth an educational review of a book being pushed by people like you. Look at the reviews. People giving it five stars are people that are like you. That think the gold standard and the elimination of govt is the answer to everything. So simple minded. The market is not a simple creature. If you think economic policy can be solved with simple thoughts, you are wrong. The author of the book makes it seem like it’s so simple to have a perfect economy. You just have to eliminate govt regulation and adopt the gold standard, and boom, everything is fixed and the economic problems are solved. If it was this simple, don’t you think we would have done it already? Your simple approach to economics is so wrong, just go back in history to see why.

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 2:01 pm
    Little Pumpikins,
    Glad to see that the offer of a free book to educate you set you off on a journey to google some article that tells you that you don’t need to read it. Almost makes me wish for some official to slap some hardcore rent controls on your rental properties. If that happens, don’t forget to go copy-paste from Hazlitt’s book in your letter to the newspaper.

    Your little word salads allegedly about economics have no effect on my understanding of the topic. However I do like to keep up with the popular delusions cherished by the “common man” and their various popular cyber-pseudo-intellectuals, so do please keep them coming.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    63- He does have a complex approach to fixing the problem though, just come with policies that help everyone. Good luck coming up with policies that will benefit everyone. Talk about a utopia.

  65. Essex says:

    50. Money does nothing unless it is circulated –

  66. Ragnar says:

    A “consumer based economy” is an oxymoron. Production of useful goods and services is the foundation of any economy. People can only consume what has been produced. I suggest that pumpikins strands himself on a desert island to see how well his consumption based economy works, freed from the chains of the exploiting capitalist producers and savers.

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    Look at this piece of sh1t. 650K and they actually started with a 750K price tag. You gotta love when the kids try to make a dime over the death of their parents. Just imagine the escalating violence between siblings as this one sits:

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1441175&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  68. Libturd in Union says:

    50. Money does nothing unless it is circulated –

    Same with raw sewage.

  69. Essex says:

    68. Or hair follicles

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Your thought process applied to economics is a simple minded approach. You apply the economic theory to a simple island example. If the wealthy don’t provide a means of paying for goods for the consumer by taking all the profit, how will this game continue? Wage inflation is inevitable. Deflation is not going.

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 2:28 pm
    A “consumer based economy” is an oxymoron. Production of useful goods and services is the foundation of any economy. People can only consume what has been produced. I suggest that pumpikins strands himself on a desert island to see how well his consumption based economy works, freed from the chains of the exploiting capitalist producers and savers.

  71. Libturd in Union says:

    Gary,
    Can you name the two upgrades performed sometime in the last 35 years on that house? Maybe three even?

  72. grim says:

    67 – More shocking than that is the property on Helen that closed in early December… $615k for that?

  73. grim says:

    I don’t understand the kitchen, it hurts my head.

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    Wage inflation is inevitable.

    Not in this country it isn’t. It will lag for the reminder of the lives of the people on this forum. Ask companies like P&G and Pepsico where the majority of their growth and revenue currently derives.

  75. Juice Box says:

    Gary I found your house! let us know when the housewarming party is, I want to do a cannonball off the roof!

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1446134&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  76. grim says:

    Oh my god is that a Star Trek 5 movie poster in the bedroom? F*cking 1989? Really!?!

    At no point in the last 26 years did it occur to you that perhaps some better wall decor was in order?

  77. NJT says:

    #67

    I’ve seen this several times. The kids are STUPID GREEDY! Both times (where I wanted to buy), eventually, the houses sold BELOW market because they refused to take reasonable/market value offers (mine was one) early in the game.

    There’s one down the block from me for sale now. WAY overpriced. I’ll wait then lowball with a cash offer after they refuse to negotiate with reasonable people and the place is sitting while they pay property taxes…

    Greed is NOT good, Gecko. Make the deal (or not) and move on.

  78. grim says:

    Never deal with siblings selling an estate, it’s not worth the hassle.

  79. Juice Box says:

    No wait Gary, this one has 6 bedrooms! Just think you could do Airbnb and have nightly guests like Clot staying over,and pay your mortgage for you!

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1445852&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  80. NJT says:

    #77 – 1989 was a good year…for me. ;).

  81. grim says:

    81 – Sorry for my excitement, but it’s rare to find that kind of definitive archaeological evidence.

  82. Juice Box says:

    Bonus if anyone can find a listing with a lawn boy.

  83. POS cape says:

    67

    Look how fast that price dropped. Why would you drop it 50K in less than a week? Then another 50 soon after that. Someone wants a fast sale. Lowball them, Gary!

  84. Fast Eddie says:

    Some houses are just not worth it at any price.

  85. Libturd in Union says:

    The green kitchen countertops in 80 might be the worst choice of color possible. And the kitchen ceiling on Helen is just precious. My sister once had a kitchen with the same type of ceiling in her Society Hills apartment in North Brunswick. I stole a Dr. Zizmor ad from a Purple 7 train and placed it up in her illuminated, curved kitchen ceiling. She wanted to kill me. I couldn’t stop laughing.

  86. Juice Box says:

    Gary reduced from $399 to now only $299 lots and lots of potential.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1437514&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  87. Fast Eddie says:

    Originally listed at 678K, currently at 639K. Put a “5” handle in front of it and I’ll do a drive by.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1430811&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  88. POS cape says:

    12
    “Cuomo — the great liberal champion who might very well have become president — was defeated by a little-known freshman state senator and former mayor of Peekskill, one George Elmer Pataki.”

    I read at the time that part of it was attributed to Howard Stern. He had a legion of listeners that would do anything he asked, and he exhorted them to vote for Pataki.

  89. POS cape says:

    87

    4 car garage! I might check this one out myself.

  90. Juice Box says:

    I think we crashed the NJMLS site.

  91. Fast Eddie says:

    I can’t get on it either. They must have sh1t their pants because of all the “interested” buyers. G0d, how I love that line:

    Me: Does this house have any offers pending?

    Agent: No, but there is a lot of interest.

    LOL!!!

  92. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumpkin [61];

    You have to think deeper on the issue. The rich don’t know need monetary wage inflation for themselves, they need it for the participants (consumer) in the economy. The rich need wage inflation for the economy because the consumer will not be able to afford products for long if their wages remain in the trenches of stagflation, while the costs of living go up. You will have a breakdown in society that will result in a revolution. In revolutions, the rich lose everything. Wage inflation has been happening to the 1% the past 30 years, but has left everyone else out. They have taken all the gains in the economy. If you think this can keep up and still have a consumer based economy to talk about, you are lost.

    So you think a lazy populous such as we have, mind-numbed by public education (your alma mater!), non-stop streaming media and wealth-redistribution handouts (read as, “Bread and Circuses”) has it in them to rise up and revolt if wages don’t inflate? No book on that happening in my (putative) grandkids’ lifetime.

    The rich (read above, asset-producing entity owners) don’t need wage inflation because the poor will pay what they can pay, and the rich will charge what the market will bear. Only small-time amateur landlords with notes to pay off will care; Wealthy owners of paid-for income properties, established businesses, etc., will take what the market gives them.

  93. 1987 Condo says:

    #46..Yes

  94. chicagofinance says:

    I was looking for the HAL console…….your microwave dinner is ready Dave…..

    grim says:
    January 2, 2015 at 2:41 pm
    I don’t understand the kitchen, it hurts my head.

  95. Juice Box says:

    Your Education Dollars at work.

    A principal has been reassigned after a misspelled sign was displayed for more than a week outside a New Jersey school.

    The message on the sign above the entryway to Paterson’s Public School Number 20 included three mistakes: December was spelled “Dicember,” report as “reepor” and a “1” was placed backwards.

    http://news.yahoo.com/misspelled-sign-paterson-nj-school-principal-141949588.html

  96. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [73];

    Oh, my stars and garters… think of all the Formica that had to die to decorate that place!

  97. Fast Eddie says:

    Condo [94],

    I’ve heard it time and time again. The discipline just challenged us to elevate our game. The support structure was there from home to school because everybody wanted everyone to succeed.

  98. 1987 Condo says:

    #98….there are negatives, but biggest positive, in my opinion, is that everyone there is interested in college and is striving (through parental pressure) to perform and study. This results in all the kids talking about college, grades, scores, etc so you are “immersed” in that environment…it is truly college prep…if that is what you are looking for in a high school….

  99. Fast Eddie says:

    Condo,

    Nothing is perfect but you will indeed become a product of the environment. And they do it all at half the cost. That’s why throwing 20 thousand plus at each kid in an Abbott district means nothing if the underlying foundation doesn’t exist.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who is lazy? 10 times harder in school today as compared to the past. My parents generation, you didn’t even really need to study to do well in high school. Graduation rates used to be a joke. Believe it or not, every new generation has it tougher than the previous generation in schooling these days.

    “So you think a lazy populous such as we have, mind-numbed by public education (your alma mater!), non-stop streaming media and wealth-redistribution handouts (read as, “Bread and Circuses”) has it in them to rise up and revolt if wages don’t inflate? No book on that happening in my (putative) grandkids’ lifetime.”

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So come up with a better way to educate the kids society has left behind. Same me some tax money by coming up with a better way to do it with less money, Einstein.

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 2, 2015 at 4:26 pm
    Condo,

    Nothing is perfect but you will indeed become a product of the environment. And they do it all at half the cost. That’s why throwing 20 thousand plus at each kid in an Abbott district means nothing if the underlying foundation doesn’t exist.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    102- * save me

  103. Ragnar says:

    That Patterson principle was making $108,000/yr, according to a news report.
    Note that she isn’t the person who misspelled the sign, but she’s getting symbolically demoted for letting the rest of the world find out about the scam that is NJ Abbott schools.

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin,

    Society has left the kids behind?

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Under the premise of capitalism, people indeed get left behind. Are you stating a 3rd generation kid out of Paterson has the same opportunities as your kids?

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 2, 2015 at 4:42 pm
    Pumpkin,

    Society has left the kids behind?

  106. Ragnar says:

    Eddie,
    The mental rot has passed the terminal stage, pumpkin-head is beyond our ability to help.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    106- What’s your great plan to save the tax payers money and at the same time provide an education to the urban poor? How much of the money do you really think is being wasted and what should we lobby our local politicians to do? Where is the big savings going to come from?

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Help? By attacking my intellect or character? I don’t look at it as help. Comes across the opposite way. Makes me less adapt at trying to understand when I feel I’m being belittled.

    Please don’t ever be a teacher. You will just belittle kids for asking questions and call them idiots.

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 4:51 pm
    Eddie,
    The mental rot has passed the terminal stage, pumpkin-head is beyond our ability to help.

  109. Ragnar's 6th grade Crystal Making Chemistry class teacher says:

    The irony, the irony !!!

    Ragnar says:
    January 2, 2015 at 4:39 pm
    principal
    That Patterson principle was making $108,000/yr, according to a news report.
    Note that she isn’t the person who misspelled the sign, but she’s getting symbolically demoted for letting the rest of the world find out about the scam that is NJ Abbott schools.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Btw, Abbott schools are not a scam. It was a genuine idea to help the poor. Compared to other poor districts in other states, our poor are doing much better. Expecting to get a 90% or higher graduation rate in an Abbott district is wishful thinking. Calling the Abbott schools a failure for not reaching this unattainable goal is wrong. If you think you have a better idea at the current time, please share.

  111. Liquor Luge says:

    gary (24)-

    The best writers on this blog are the ones who foresee a future wracked with dystopian gloom and searing dread. ;)

    “I notice that the folks on this blog who lean right always post with impeccable, insightful details while those who champion utopian visions belch incoherent sludge.”

  112. 30 year realtor says:

    Fast Eddie, opportunity comes with risk. If you are ready to assume the risk and additional work there may be opportunity for you. If you want to discuss email me at camenwent@gmail.com

  113. Statler Waldorf says:

    Prediction: Fast Eddie will find fatal flaws with every house that comes on the market, and remain in his current dwelling.

    (This is my prediction for 2016 as well.)

  114. NJT says:

    Kids from a (former) Abbott district:

    *Note – NOT for viewing at the office.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajg8QrSsr_A

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You went to parochial school? I wonder how well you would have done with absentee parents that taught you nothing and told you to go outside so that they could shoot some drugs. Messed up world out there. Everyone is not born on the same playing field and I accept that. I don’t have an answer for improving the education of the urban poor, but I know sending less money will def not help. Giving up on them altogether is also not an option. They must be given an opportunity, whether or not they do something with this opportunity is their choice, but in my heart, they must be given an opportunity at have some type of education. The education will never be on par with their suburban counterparts (there are just too many needy kids in an urban setting for the teacher to handle), but it’s the best that we can do right now. I don’t have a better answer to improving urban education, but would appreciate if you do.

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 2, 2015 at 4:42 pm
    Pumpkin,

    Society has left the kids behind?

  116. Fast Eddie says:

    Statler [114],

    You may be entirely correct! :)

  117. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin,

    Yes, I went to Parochial schools.

  118. I predict that gary will buy a new house in a gated community for way too high a price, but only because Michael found out where his existing home is and keeps stopping by to chat about wage inflation, RE, and tennis lessons.

  119. First half of 2015:
    Sell MO and INTC
    Buy VZ and T

  120. Essex says:

    I predict that we will buy our ‘trade-up’ home and live happily ever after….!

  121. Essex says:

    God Bless Biiiiig Pharma.

  122. Liquor Luge says:

    Punkinhead (56)-

    True. And they all suck.

    “I’m one of the few people on this board that actually comes up with my own original thoughts on a regular basis.”

  123. Liquor Luge says:

    I predict anon will make Punkinhead his bitch in 2015.

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol…. Have to give credit where it is due, you are one sly fox. Nice one…Cheers!

    Liquor Luge says:
    January 2, 2015 at 7:02 pm
    Punkinhead (56)-

    True. And they all suck.

    “I’m one of the few people on this board that actually comes up with my own original thoughts on a regular basis.”

  125. Essex says:

    I predict that in 2015, a man named Rand Paul, a humble eye doctor from a place in flyover country will emerge as a force in politics. And then Bush will win in 2016.

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “In the long run we are all dead” goes the famous quote from John Maynard Keynes.

    What Keynes was suggesting is that economic (and thus financial) theories are meant to hold true over the long run, potentially longer than any one’s lifetime. Over the short run there could be substantial variances from where those theories suggest normalcy should reside. Individuals could be waiting a very long time for reality to actually intersect with long run theories. In other words, timing actually is everything.

    Investors have witnessed firsthand a similar script over the last 20 years as there have certainly been very good times to buy equities but also very bad times.

    Buy and hold investors spent much of the last 20 years wondering if they made the wrong decision. Buy and hold, the theory states should work over the long run. However, for buy and hold not to work for 20 years, or over 1/3 of one’s adult life, would be detrimental from an investing standpoint for countless numbers of reason.

    Depending on which year you happened to actually invest capital made a world of difference as to the reality of your success today.

    If we haven’t learned anything the last two decades, then at least let us realize that when it comes to investing over the long run, timing actually is everything.

    Monopoly Money

    Consider this scenario:

    You just inherited $100,000 and are wondering what asset to buy. You have just watched the markets skyrocket in two bubbles the last 20 years, crash in two hangovers afterward, and now again enter levels that are lofty historically. Depending on when you chose to invest that money was the one single most important factor in its performance over the last 20 years.

    Not the stock you chose, not the dividend it paid, not even the asset class itself mattered more than the timing of that decision. (For more on why stock picks don’t matter near as much anymore see this video about diversifying in today’s environment)

    Figure 1 below displays the annual performance of the S&P 500 from the dates shown through today. Depending on which year you happened to put money to work was the most significant factor in your annual returns.

    Modern financial theories such as Buy and Hold also suggest that the earlier you invest the better and more robust your returns will be. They suggest that over the long run you will be better off. They are wrong as Figure 1 shows over the last 15 years, the earlier you invested in equities, the worse off you were.

    It shows that most importantly is timing, as someone back in 1999 should have in hindsight sat out of the stock market (NYSEARCA:SDS) completely until 2009, being invested in basically any other asset while they waited. In 2009 the timing for equities was the best it had been in over 15 years as the average annual return of stocks through today was below 10% every year the past 15 until 2009 when the average annual return was above 15%. The timing in the late 90s and early 2000s was one of the worse, but in 2009 was one of the best.

    Keynes could not have been more dead on.

    In the long run we are all dead, therefore we shouldn’t use theories for time horizons that don’t align with our own. We need strategies that work better over shorter time frames.

    https://www.etfguide.com/should-buy-and-hold-investing-be-scrapped/

  127. The Great Pumpkin says:

    128- Imo, the article is right. Timing is everything when it comes to investing.

  128. Mile High Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Back from Breckenridge, a place so desperately in need of oxygen, I now champion global warming . . .

    Anyway, I predict PBGC will implode from a total collapse of multi employer plans, resulting in a serious effort by the administration to mount a bailout. It will be couched in terms to avoid making it look like a bailout of union pensions and will instead be touted as a long overdue “investment” that was “neglected” by the GOP.

    This is a wild ass guess but a somewhat informed one.

  129. Mile High Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [125] luge,

    FWIW, punkin’ is a lot smarter than Twitless.

  130. Mile High Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I further predict that by year end, Warren will actually propose co sponsored legislation to forgive student loan debt or make it dischargeable in bankruptcy. It will fail to get out of committee.

    Again, just a guess.

  131. Essex says:

    I predict no bankers will stand trial for ruining the economy oh so long ago.

  132. grim says:

    I hear the State of New Jersey had to give Mercedes Benz a welfare check to afford to stay in NJ. If Mercedes can’t even afford it here, who can?

    And you thought it was only the poor and lazy who needed Section 8?

  133. grim says:

    And I hear Fentanyl is becoming common on NJ streets now? Good god, that’s end-game for heroin addicts. Don’t even bother trying to save OD’ers, they are better left to die than be addicted to Fentanyl.

  134. Liquor Luge says:

    plume (131)-

    It would’ve been helpful if you had posted the clinical definitions of “imbecile” and “moron” along with your comment.

    “FWIW, punkin’ is a lot smarter than Twitless.”

  135. Essex says:

    134. Not suprising. But is it welfare? Extortion? or just good business?

  136. Liquor Luge says:

    Just googled fent@nyl. Good God.

    Turn this stuff loose in Paterson or Camden, and problem solved.

  137. joyce says:

    Student loans should be dischargeable in bankruptcy.

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [136] luge

    Sorry, I call them like I see them. Pumpkinhead may be overly optimistic and likely wrong at times but at least he makes the effort. Twitless, on the other hand, is what we used to call back in grade school, “a waste of white.”

    I would engage pumpkin head if it were not for the time it would take to do so, time I really don’t have much of for the next month. The only way I would like to engage anon is through mortal combat, and I am not talking video games.

  139. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [138] sx

    “But is it welfare? Extortion? or just good business?”

    At a certain level, I am compelled to ask what’s the difference?

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jeez, didn’t know what this was, but good luck to all the junkies. You will need it. I predict that the crime rate goes up with the introduction of this drug to our streets. Seems like it’s a short potent high, that will leave people desperate to get more. Addictions suck.

    grim says:
    January 3, 2015 at 8:17 am
    And I hear Fentanyl is becoming common on NJ streets now? Good god, that’s end-game for heroin addicts. Don’t even bother trying to save OD’ers, they are better left to die than be addicted to Fentanyl.

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exactly!! No difference.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    January 3, 2015 at 10:08 am
    [138] sx

    “But is it welfare? Extortion? or just good business?”

    At a certain level, I am compelled to ask what’s the difference?

  142. Mile High Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    In a nod to clot, my first song of the day on my iPod is “life during wartime”.

    “this ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco . . . “

  143. Mile High Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    If it weren’t for crime, I’d say give it away in camden and Paterson . . .

    “It is alleged that Mossad agents used “levofentany1” in their 1997 attempt to kill Hamas leader Khalid Mishal.[63] However, since fent@nyl is achiral (i.e., has no “levo-” form), the substance was probably fentany1 itself, a fentany1analogue, or another opioid. However, it could have been a non-opioid sedative or unknown drug.

    A gas, it is presumed, based on a derivative of fentany1 was used in 2002 in the Moscow theatre hostage crisis to incapacitate Chechen terrorist attackers (and their hostages) too quickly for them to retaliate. More than 15% of those affected died, including 117 of the 800 hostages.”

  144. Comrade Nom Deplume, sea level again says:

    Finally recovering from trip out west. Hard enough at one mile over sea level but over two miles is a b1tch.

  145. Juice Box says:

    re # 147 – Mountain sickness? I thought that only affected people over 50?

  146. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thank you, Nom. I appreciate it. You and lib might not agree with my thoughts, but at least you don’t insult me and throw jabs at me for not agreeing.

    .Truth is, these are complicated issues we talk about. You have some of the greatest minds in the world debating these ideas and theories every day. There is not one right answer and that’s the problem. Everyone, including myself, falls victim to looking at an issue from only one pt of view. Some people do it more than others, these are extremists. They only see the issue one way. That’s why it’s so dangerous to adopt a party line or religion, you become closer and closer to only thinking one way. All other thoughts become noise, unless it supports your extreme view. I’m trying to stay as open minded on issues as I can, I am searching for the truth and the right answers. Might take a lifetime to figure out, but that’s what life is about. As for humans, it’s our duty to improve upon the current economic systems and theory. There is no reason to accept our current models. They must be constantly analyzed and challenged till we get it right. It will never be perfect, but we can come very close.

    Call me a dreamer, but I hope we can eventually get it right, and rid our world of inequalities. Where everyone works together for the common good. Right now, the systems leads to people doing evil things to get ahead. You have people treating other human beings like slaves (Yes, slavery still exists and in fact is thriving in certain parts of the world). Is that a product of the economic system or a human flaw? If I look at the issue in simple terms, would say it’s a human flaw. When I look at the issue more deeply, start to see where the dollar bill plays a role. Very deep question to attack and analyze.

    I hope this blog exists 10 or 20 years from now. It’s like a diary of your thoughts. Would be nice to look back 20 years from now and see how much you have changed and grown with your thought process. Would love to see how everyone has changed over time. That will be cool. Let’s hope this blog can last and isn’t overtaken by some other technology that will render this site obsolete. This is a beautiful collection of our thoughts and would hate to lose it.

    Good luck everyone in 2015—-make that money!!! ESP fast Eddie, hope you finally find a house. You have been searching a long time and hope this is the year.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    January 3, 2015 at 10:07 am
    [136] luge

    Sorry, I call them like I see them. Pumpkinhead may be overly optimistic and likely wrong at times but at least he makes the effort. Twitless, on the other hand, is what we used to call back in grade school, “a waste of white.”

    I would engage pumpkin head if it were not for the time it would take to do so, time I really don’t have much of for the next month. The only way I would like to engage anon is through mortal combat, and I am not talking video games.

  147. Fentanyl Lover says:

    In the medical field is a great medication. Reversible with Narcan.

    In one of my hospitals had an opiate user 50’s lady that had terminal cancer on a ventilator. She kept bucking the ventilator even with extremely high fentanyl doses and we were wondering how did that happened.

    It turned out one the medical resident, when no one was looking would go in to see the patient, look like he was playing with the Fentanyl med IV Bag, but in reality was drawing medication from the IV Bag and keeping the syringe. The resident had his own small IV line where he would inject afterward.

    Anyway, about junkies. This clip explains it better than anything.

    http://youtu.be/Naf_WiEb9Qs

    By the way one thing not given enough credit in the discussion of crime reduction during the 90’s, is AIDS. As someone that did urban street EMS both in NYC and NJ, you got to understand that AIDS wiped out easily 2 generations of troublemakers.
    What I recall is that from ’88 to ’95 huge amount of troublemakers disappeared from the scene. Starting to level out after ’95, with anti-retroviral therapy coming into use by then.

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Teachers’ hefty salaries are driving up taxes, and they only work nine or ten months a year! It’s time we put things in perspective and pay them for what they do — babysit!
    We can get that for less than minimum wage.

    A friend on facebook shared this with me, and it’s a hoot. Read on.

    That’s right. Let’s give them $3.00 an hour and only the hours they worked; not any of that silly planning time, or any time they spend before or after school. That would be $19.50 a day (7:45 to 3:00 PM with 45 min. off for lunch and planning — that equals 6-1/2 hours).
    So each parent should pay $19.50 a day for these teachers to baby-sit their children. Now how many students do they teach in a day…maybe 30? So that’s $19.50 x 30 = $585 a day.

    However, remember they only work 180 days a year!!! I am not going to pay them for any vacations.

    LET’S SEE….

    That’s $585 X 180= $105,300 per year. (Hold on! My calculator needs new batteries).

    What about those special education teachers and the ones with Master’s degrees? Well, we could pay them minimum wage ($7.75), and just to be fair, round it off to $8.00 an hour. That would be $8 X 6-1/2 hours X 30 children X 180 days = $280,800 per year.

    Wait a minute — there’s something wrong here! There sure is!

    The average teacher’s salary (nationwide) is $50,000.

    $50,000/180 days = $277.77 per day / 30 students = $9.25 / 6.5 hours = $1.42 per hour per student — a very inexpensive baby-sitter and they even EDUCATE your kids!)

    WHAT A DEAL!!!!

    Make a teacher smile; repost this to show appreciation for all educators.

    Meredith Menden

  149. The Great Pumpkin says:

    151- You prob saw this on facebook, but if you didn’t, it’s pretty funny.

  150. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Crazy!!! Guess everything has a positive and negative.

    “By the way one thing not given enough credit in the discussion of crime reduction during the 90′s, is AIDS. As someone that did urban street EMS both in NYC and NJ, you got to understand that AIDS wiped out easily 2 generations of troublemakers.
    What I recall is that from ’88 to ’95 huge amount of troublemakers disappeared from the scene. Starting to level out after ’95, with anti-retroviral therapy coming into use by then.”

  151. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [149] pumpkin

    You need a thick skin for this room. I have to remind myself that opinions are like arseholes: everyone has one and they aren’t good for much other than spouting shiite. Occasionally, I belittle Twitless, footrest, and Fabian but that’s all the mental energy I can muster for them as I don’t see any point in continuing to refute their discredited arguments. Let them rave on . . .

    Back to the salt mines. So-called vacation is over.

    That said, don’t get the idea that I agree with you that often.

  152. The Great Pumpkin says:

    150- Wow, that’s something you never hear about….. A doctor robbing a patients medication. I wonder how often this happens. Addictions suck. Don’t try it. Only advice you can give to people.

  153. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Believe me, I don’t ever get feeling that you or anyone on this blog agrees with me. Lol

    “That said, don’t get the idea that I agree with you that often.”

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [148] juice

    I got my first dose of AMS at Vail about 17 years ago. Then at Canyons, so I took yo acclimating for a day and that worked. But as Mrs Deplume’s attending said, Park City is sea level compared to Breckenridge. She never had it before but got slammed, even with acclimation. I wasn’t as bad but felt it. And I’m over 50 but the missus isn’t.

    FWIW, O2 delivery in that area is a big business.

    Ok, I am now out. For real.

  155. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Rags, does this put into perspective how little teachers are paid. If you had to pay a teacher 19.50 a day for 180 days, it would cost you 3,510. That’s not taking into account heating/electricity costs or building costs (you know cleaning up after your kids and paying for some of the kids breakfast and lunch). Now do you see why taxes are so high. It’s not really that high for what you are getting. Yes the people with money pay more, but that’s for the greater good of society, so that everyone has a chance at an education.

    I pay 17,200 for my taxes on my residence(higher this year) and over 11,000 on my other property. Honestly, I don’t think its that outrageous when you break down all that this society offers. I already broke down education costs. Now add police/firemen infrastructure, and costs for govt employees to keep society going and it’s not all that bad.

    You have to remember, not everyone pays the taxes. You have the corporations at the top skipping out on the bill and 35% of the population not even paying property taxes, never mind this 35% contribute almost nothing to the state sales tax due to making almost no money and not purchasing much.

    So if corporations decided to pay taxes and a fair wage to its employees, instead of focusing on creating billionaire share holders, your taxes would be much less. As fast Eddie always says, thank you to the 1%.

    * no citation needed—these are my own thoughts after analyzing the situation.

    “That’s right. Let’s give them $3.00 an hour and only the hours they worked; not any of that silly planning time, or any time they spend before or after school. That would be $19.50 a day (7:45 to 3:00 PM with 45 min. off for lunch and planning — that equals 6-1/2 hours).
    So each parent should pay $19.50 a day for these teachers to baby-sit their children. Now how many students do they teach in a day…maybe 30? So that’s $19.50 x 30 = $585 a day.”

  156. Juice Box says:

    Yeah, first day is usually the toughest. The highest ski lifts in Colordao are by far Silverton and Telluride over 12,000 ft. I would not venture up there without a full day to acclimatize. Whistler is the best barely over 7,000 and still 5,000 ft of vertical if it isn’t raining at the base. I am going in Feb depending on the deals. I could use some freshies…

  157. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is from the comments on that teacher post above. Tell me it’s not comical. People are so brainwashed that they truly believe cops and teachers are to blame for our countries economic problems. Too funny. Yes, it’s all the cops and teachers fault for making so much money. The elite are doing a great job of dividing society and taking the focus away from the real problem.

    “Great Idea!!! I am really sick of these babysitters, who are trying to ruin the country.
    Forget Bankers, who have only bankrupted us, and foreclosed on our homes. Or corporate CEO’s who have only offshored all our jobs, and want to reduce wages. Also not to blame are the corrupted politicians, who have been bought and paid for by rich teabaggers.

    No, definitely the whole destruction of this country lies at the feet of teachers, who have the audacity to want a pension after 30 or 40 years of babysitting! Teachers and Firefighters and Policemen, they are the real cause of all our problems!!!!

    So what if they are exhausted after all those years of earning good money of almost $1.50 per hour, with SUMMERS OFF!!!!

    They should all just be glad to live in this country with a constitution, (does the constitution say we have to pay them a pension? No, it does not!) and a Christian God, and a flag, and a bunch of other good stuff.

    I’m tired of teachers trying to wreck everything for us, they are the cause of our financial crisis, and I think they need to suck it up and work for less!!!”

  158. anon (the good one) says:

    @stiglitzian:
    “The big problem facing the world in 2015 is not economic. We know how to escape our current malaise. The problem is our stupid politics.”

  159. anon (the good one) says:

    @stiglitzian:
    “The fall in [Japan’s] GDP that followed the increase in the consumption tax provided further evidence in support of Keynesian economics.”

  160. anon (the good one) says:

    “Those who strive not to think about this issue suggest that this is just about the “politics of envy.” Those who discuss the issue are accused of fomenting class warfare.

    But as we have come to grasp the causes and consequences of these inequities we have come to understand that this is not about envy. The extreme to which inequality has grown in the United States and the manner in which these inequities arise undermine our economy.

    Too much of the wealth at the top of the ladder arises from exploitation—whether from the exercise of monopoly power, from taking advantage of deficiencies in corporate governance laws to divert large amounts of corporate revenues to pay CEOs’ outsized bonuses unrelated to true performance, or from a financial sector devoted to market manipulation, predatory and discriminatory lending, and abusive credit card practices.

    Too much of the poverty at the bottom of the income spectrum is due to economic discrimination and the failure to provide adequate education and health care to the nearly one out of five children growing up poor.”

    @stiglitzian:
    “Slow Growth and Inequality are Political Choices. We Can Choose Otherwise.”
    by Joseph Stiglitz

  161. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks for sharing, Anon. This is right on point. Anyone that has took the time to analyze the situation will realize this is not good for the economy and society in general.

    “But as we have come to grasp the causes and consequences of these inequities we have come to understand that this is not about envy. The extreme to which inequality has grown in the United States and the manner in which these inequities arise undermine our economy.

    Too much of the wealth at the top of the ladder arises from exploitation—whether from the exercise of monopoly power, from taking advantage of deficiencies in corporate governance laws to divert large amounts of corporate revenues to pay CEOs’ outsized bonuses unrelated to true performance, or from a financial sector devoted to market manipulation, predatory and discriminatory lending, and abusive credit card practices.

    Too much of the poverty at the bottom of the income spectrum is due to economic discrimination and the failure to provide adequate education and health care to the nearly one out of five children growing up poor.”

  162. The Great Pumpkin says:

    164- just look at the exploitation in the stock market for a common invester like myself. You have to worry about short attacks, high frequency trading, and false financial information (enrons). Never mind the Madoffs of the industry. I’m not painting everyone at the top as evil, but there are enough there for the stereotype to apply. A lot of millionaires and billionaires made their money through the exploitation of other humans or through the exploitation of natural resources that belong to everyone. Oil or water should not belong to an individual. What’s next, polluting the air and then charging me for clean air? That’s my prediction for the future. Someone will exploit air to become a billionaire. Greedy a-holes. Do something positive to make money, not screwing over your fellow human beings. These people with this mindset are sick. It’s like they have a voice in the back of their head screaming, “I want more, I want it all!!”.

  163. The Great Pumpkin says:

    165- That’s a good one for rags. Rags is always using the island example….. Send your hero ceo’s to a deserted island and see how well they do with no one to exploit.

  164. anon (the good one) says:

    “A rich country with millions of poor people.

    A country that prides itself on being the land of opportunity, but in which a child’s prospects are more dependent on the income and education of his or her parents than in other advanced countries.

    A country that believes in fair play, but in which the richest often pay a smaller percentage of their income in taxes than those less well off.

    A country in which children every day pledge allegiance to the flag, asserting that there is “justice for all,” but in which, increasingly, there is only justice for those who can afford it.

    These are the contradictions that the United States is gradually and painfully struggling to come to terms with as it begins to comprehend the enormity of the inequalities that mark its society—inequities that are greater than in any other advanced country.”

    @stiglitzian:
    “Slow Growth and Inequality are Political Choices. We Can Choose Otherwise.”
    by Joseph Stiglitz

  165. Essex says:

    154. The room is rigged. Knowing that helps.

  166. anon (the good one) says:

    Rags should take himself to a deserted island. And never come back

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 3, 2015 at 1:32 pm
    165- That’s a good one for rags. Rags is always using the island example….. Send your hero ceo’s to a deserted island and see how well they do with no one to exploit.

  167. chicagofinance says:

    Widespread use of abortion has also been proved as very effective too. I posit that inexpensive and ubiquitous digital surveillance cameras will be a crime retardant. First catching criminals in the first place, but also preventing repeat offenses by a single individual banished from the streets.

    Fentanyl Lover says:
    January 3, 2015 at 11:33 am
    Starting to level out after ’95, with anti-retroviral therapy coming into use by then.

  168. Comrade Nom Deplume, sea level again says:

    [159] juice

    Breck’s Imperial Chair tops out at 12,840 and bills itself as the highest in North America. I felt the AMS come on just taking Imperial on the last day.

    Did over 20,000 feet of vertical on Xmas with a friend who lives out there. He worked me so hard that I felt every foot of it by day’s end. Didnt do Imperial that day. Didn’t come close to that vertical any of the remaining four days. Bone chilling cold except for last day when we took Imperial a couple of times to ski Horseshoe Bowl.

    Loved the Mtn, easy to ski everything but EX, but the altitude and high cost make Park City a lot more attractive. Who said it was easy being a one percenter?

  169. Liquor Luge says:

    Our police state also has mastered many forms of prior restraint.

  170. Liquor Luge says:

    What is of more interest are the violence and crimes that the fascist police state actually organize and promote.

  171. Juice Box says:

    RE # 172 – hadn’t heard about that Breck lift very cool, the highest I have lift I have been on was Aspen I think was just over 12,000. I haven’t been out in what like seems forever now before my son was born 3 long years. Utah skiing is cheap and awesome but I am looking for a trip a little further west. We have friends in Vancouver who we wanted to see again since that city is awesome and I wanted to hit Whistler again all of the Olympic upgrades in 2010 so there are deals to be had with all the excess capacity and they have already have had massive snowfall. A major plus is we don’t have to deal as much with the elevation since we are soft east coast people. Last time I was out there was 08 just before the Olympics, we had a grandma give us a tour she kicked out asses and that is when I was really really in shape. This time around not so much, I will be in the gym for the next month for sure.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    I know people can do better, but $2.05/gallon credit card bitchez…..

  173. Ben says:

    Teachers’ hefty salaries are driving up taxes, and they only work nine or ten months a year! It’s time we put things in perspective and pay them for what they do — babysit!
    We can get that for less than minimum wage.

    A friend on facebook shared this with me, and it’s a hoot. Read on.

    That’s right. Let’s give them $3.00 an hour and only the hours they worked; not any of that silly planning time, or any time they spend before or after school. That would be $19.50 a day (7:45 to 3:00 PM with 45 min. off for lunch and planning — that equals 6-1/2 hours).
    So each parent should pay $19.50 a day for these teachers to baby-sit their children. Now how many students do they teach in a day…maybe 30? So that’s $19.50 x 30 = $585 a day.

    However, remember they only work 180 days a year!!! I am not going to pay them for any vacations.

    LET’S SEE….

    That’s $585 X 180= $105,300 per year. (Hold on! My calculator needs new batteries).

    What about those special education teachers and the ones with Master’s degrees? Well, we could pay them minimum wage ($7.75), and just to be fair, round it off to $8.00 an hour. That would be $8 X 6-1/2 hours X 30 children X 180 days = $280,800 per year.

    Wait a minute — there’s something wrong here! There sure is!

    The average teacher’s salary (nationwide) is $50,000.

    $50,000/180 days = $277.77 per day / 30 students = $9.25 / 6.5 hours = $1.42 per hour per student — a very inexpensive baby-sitter and they even EDUCATE your kids!)

    WHAT A DEAL!!!!

    Make a teacher smile; repost this to show appreciation for all educators.

    Meredith Menden

    I’m a teacher, and it’s not that funny. Any teacher that tries to use some sort of multiplication of their students to justify their salary can shut the f*** up. They just equated themselves to a babysitter. You should be justified in salary based on the job you do. That being said…everyone that complains about teacher salaries also needs to shut the f*** up. Most teachers make around 50k a year but have to listen to everyone whine about the one gym teacher they know in town that makes $100k a year. Newsflash, the teachers in the district are more pissed off about that fact than you are.

  174. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m sorry, I didn’t mean for this to be an insult to you or any other teacher. I just thought it was a slick way of showing teachers aren’t “killing it” for what they do. I became a propenant of teachers and govt workers in 2010. Every party or social event I went to that year ended up becoming a trash the teacher/government worker rally. That’s all I would hear and it became annoying. So that’s why you will see me not participate in the whole bash the govt worker rally. These people are avg people making avg or slightly above avg salaries. They are not the problem.

    Btw, your last line was hilarious.

    “I’m a teacher, and it’s not that funny. Any teacher that tries to use some sort of multiplication of their students to justify their salary can shut the f*** up. They just equated themselves to a babysitter. You should be justified in salary based on the job you do. That being said…everyone that complains about teacher salaries also needs to shut the f*** up. Most teachers make around 50k a year but have to listen to everyone whine about the one gym teacher they know in town that makes $100k a year. Newsflash, the teachers in the district are more pissed off about that fact than you are.”

  175. Liquor Luge says:

    Ben, seems like everyone is pissed off about everything in the current system…except for the handful of people who make out like bandits.

    Why is this, and why has it been allowed to stand?

    I say this as someone who had two nieces and nephews at Pingry and still refused to even broach the subject of either of my kids going there.

  176. NJT says:

    “Oddball
    Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.”

    I predict that by the end of 2015 I’ll be at the same salary job and receiving an even bigger year end bonus. Also, that I’ll be finished restoring/renovating my home (Victorian – ALWAYS more work than you think) and have purchased another multi-family rental property, below market value.

    In addition, ‘stawks’ will be flying higher than ever, gold in the doldrums and I’ll be almost ready to retire from Corp. Amerika (2016?).

  177. Comrade Nom Deplume, sea level again says:

    [175] juice

    Tahoe has bupkus from what I’m told. So don’t know how much further west you want to go. One couple I rode up with was from Austria and they say Austria has nothing for snow. In our lifetimes, the high country and Banff may be it within North America and Europe may be screwed.

  178. Ben says:

    Ben, seems like everyone is pissed off about everything in the current system…except for the handful of people who make out like bandits.

    Why is this, and why has it been allowed to stand?

    I say this as someone who had two nieces and nephews at Pingry and still refused to even broach the subject of either of my kids going there.

    It’s the way the world has always functioned. Nepotism and favoritism. You’ll never stop it. For all its worth, stay away from Pingry or any other private school. They pay their teachers dirt and cannot attract a single competent person in Math or Science as a result. All the private school parents are forced to hire tutors to keep their kids performing at the same level.

    Public school education in a good suburb, despite what people will claim, in Jersey is as good as you are going to get. The performance numbers confirm this. Sure, you’ll get your share of crap teachers, but you’ll get your share of great teachers as well. Besides, the school doesn’t even matter that much. If your kid is very high achieving, does it really matter where they go?

    As far as changing the system, there a bunch of things standing in the way.

    1. A union that refuses to employ any sort of merit based system. They would probably file a grievance if you offered your best teachers a $100 year end bonus. They want a step system and a step system only.

    2. A general public that is very hostile to the idea of paying teachers more than an average salary of $50k. There’s a reason you have a lot of crap teachers out there. You get what you pay for. It would be nice to attract talent to the profession and money talks while bullsh`t walks. Never quite understood it because they’ll rarely make noise about police officers getting paid twice that.

    3. A governor who’s consistently found ways to lower the salaries of employees by changing contribution rules. It’s very annoying that you get one chance to negotiate your salary in the district you work in while the district has been given 5 chances to force you to pay out of pocket for other things in the past four years through said rule changes. Christie is a one trick pony where he always starts to go after teachers every time he has some heat on him.

  179. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BOSTON (Reuters) – As the Fed winds down its economic stimulus, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says the country’s next economic booster could be exporting its fossil fuels around the globe, a move that could make America the next Saudi Arabia.

    “The United States has the chance to be to the energy economy of the next decade what Saudi Arabia has been for the last two to three decades,” Summers said on Saturday. “The effect of allowing oil exports … would reduce rather than increase American gasoline prices.”

    Summers, known for his outspoken views about what he describes as a disappointing U.S. economic recovery, made his remarks at the annual American Economics Association conference.

    Meanwhile, at the same conference, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said low inflation rates across the world and only small amounts of wage and price pressure in the United States should force the Federal Reserve to move slowly as it pulls back on its accommodative monetary policy.

    Rosengren repeated his call for the U.S. central bank to take its time in establishing more normal policy after years of stimulus to boost the economy.

    “I believe the continued very low core inflation and wage growth numbers provide ample justification for patience,” Rosengren said. “A patient approach to policy is prudent until we can more confidently expect that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2 percent target over the next several years.”

    Summers, a Harvard economics professor, reiterated how he is unsatisfied with the progress of the U.S. economy.

    “The United States is now about 10 percent below potential, as it was estimated in 2007,” Summers said. “In so far as the output gap has closed, it is not because we have gotten closer to what we thought potential was. It is because we have revised downwards our assessment of the economy’s potential. That 10 percent potential represents about $20,000 per American family.”

    The comments of Rosengren and Summers come as Fed chair Janet Yellen lays the groundwork for the Fed’s first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. The Fed changed its interest rate guidance last month at its policy setting meeting, adding language in its statement that the central bank is moving closer to raising rates.

    While the Fed is widely expected to begin its lift-off sometime in the middle of this year, officials like Rosengren have advocated for a slow and steady process. That approach goes counter to other Fed officials who are arguing that the central bank has waited too long in keeping rates near zero, where they have been since December 2008.

    Summers advocates that the United States spend about 1 percent of GDP on public infrastructure improvements. He said current net public investment in infrastructure is now less than 1 percent GDP.

    “It is less than half what it averaged in the post World War II period,” Summers said.

    Rosengren said in his remarks that the last time the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates after a recession in June of 2004, the unemployment rate was at 5.6 percent, below the current 5.8 percent, and inflation was at 2.8 percent – well above its current reading of 1.2 percent.

    “Some worry that patience will mean deferring the first rate increase until well past the arrival of economic conditions that historically result in tightening,” Rosengren said. “But I would point out that we have some way to go before reaching those conditions, and so have not been unusually patient as yet.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/low-wage-price-pressure-require-193614794.html

  180. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are telling you from the horses mouth that wage inflation will be here in a couple years. Side note, I hope they don’t raise the rates too early either. Let this pick up steam.

    “I believe the continued very low core inflation and wage growth numbers provide ample justification for patience,” Rosengren said. “A patient approach to policy is prudent until we can more confidently expect that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2 percent target over the next several years.”

  181. Essex says:

    183. Does it matter where they go? I would say yes. From a socialization standpoint anyway.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    183- Dead on with Christie. Used the teachers as a political power grab. Played a tune to the crowd that they fell in lové with. Teachers were an easy target.

  183. Essex says:

    Christie is done

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