Unicorns on Myspace will save the NJ housing market

From HousingWire:

4 reasons New Jersey housing is set to boom

It is obvious that the Great Recovery has impacted regions in the U.S. unevenly. One local market has had more to deal with than others: the state of New Jersey. The Great Recovery has been anything but Great or Recovery for the Garden State. With slow job growth, high taxes, and the collapse of the real estate market, New Jersey had enough to deal with without having two catastrophic storms hit consecutively: Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012).

Back in 2011, Irene came with the price tag of $1 billion in damage to 200,000 homes and buildings, making it the costliest disaster in the state’s history.

Then came Sandy the following year, which brought estimated losses to businesses of up to $30 billion in New Jersey alone.

But this spring, 2015, could present itself as a big pivot for New Jersey’s real estate market

1. Pent-up demand turns into a buying surge?

Over the past few months, there have been a number of very credible articles citing negative metrics, including mortgage apps dropping 3.5% and extensive number of days listings remain on the market.

What the warm weather appears to be carrying with it: some unexpected, pent-up demand and some badly needed inventory, according to a few New Jersey brokers.

“From the beginning of March, our office has seen a significant jump in business and activity for our office in Toms River,” said Robert Cecchini, operating principal at Keller Williams RCI Group in Toms River, New Jersey.

2. Technology to make New Jersey brokers better prepared

Expertise and engagement

Facebook advertisements: Facebook advertisements are clearly the new ‘must-have tool’ on the block, but social media isn’t replacing the foundational personal referral, it is simply enhancing it.

Wait, hold it, right there. I let it slip when you blamed the housing market problems on Irene and Sandy. But Facebook?

Are you kidding me?

Facebook is the fix NJ’s housing market problems? What kind of crap is this?

3. Emerging demographics: The single millennial as the new buyers

There is a new market segment of homebuyer: the pre-married millennial.

Oh for f*ck’s sake, this just gets better. The pent up demand from unwed millennials on Facebook will save the housing market (Pretty sure that unwed Millennials aren’t using Facebook anymore.)

Certainly the business calls for more intentionality in establishing one’s expertise and professionalism.

Holy Christ – WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN!?!?!

4. Real-time broker/buyer instant access

A broker is no longer held to physical face-to-face meetings, but can now give access to view the home virtually via technology to the home, paving the way for the actual inspection. These virtual open house platforms include:

Myspace and AOL Instant Messenger? Who the hell wrote this? Myspace and unwed millennials on Facebook are going to save the NJ housing market… “I would have bought that house, but the broker didn’t hit me on myspace with a link to a video chat” – Said no one ever.

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81 Responses to Unicorns on Myspace will save the NJ housing market

  1. Comrade Nom Deplume, not as pretty as Grim says:

    Not housing related, at least not directly . . .

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/police-officers-reportedly-shot-amid-ferguson-missouri-protests/story?id=29573803&cid=fb_abcn_sf

    anon, how about a pithy tweet? Or some dissembling from footrest?

  2. grim says:

    From NJBIZ:

    N.J. payrolls grow by 3,400 jobs in February

    New Jersey picked up some additional jobs in February, according to Roseland-based payroll and human resources firm ADP.

    The 3,400 private-sector jobs the state added for the month was up from the 2,400 gained in January.

    ADP’s Regional Employment Report found that the services sector added about 3,100 positions, while the goods-producing sector grew by about 400. (ADP indicated that the sum did not equal the total jobs due to rounding.)

    The leading industries in terms of job gains were natural resources/mining and construction, and trade, transportation and utilities; both sectors added 600 jobs for the month. On the other hand, manufacturing lost 200 jobs and professional and business services broke even, ADP said.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    @aroundnewjersey: N.J. towns would be able to set higher minimum wage than state under proposed law

    grim says:
    March 12, 2015 at 7:33 am
    From NJBIZ:

    N.J. payrolls grow by 3,400 jobs in February

    New Jersey picked up some additional jobs in February, according to Roseland-based payroll and human resources firm ADP.

  4. Real Estate 4ever Not says:

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph

    Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot.

    This dry paper is the talk of the hedge fund village in Mayfair, and the stuff of nightmares for those in Singapore or Hong Kong already caught on the wrong side of the biggest currency margin call in financial history. “Everybody is reading it,” said one ex-veteran from the New York Fed.

    The report – “Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage” – was first published by the Bank for International Settlements in January, but its biting relevance is growing by the day.

    It shows how the Fed’s zero rates and quantitative easing flooded the emerging world with dollar liquidity in the boom years, overwhelming all defences.

    This abundance enticed Asian and Latin American companies to borrow like never before in dollars – at real rates near 1pc – storing up a reckoning for the day when the US monetary cycle should turn, as it is now doing with a vengeance.

    Contrary to popular belief, the world is today more dollarized than ever before. Foreigners have borrowed $9 trillion in US currency outside American jurisdiction, and therefore without the protection of a lender-of-last-resort able to issue unlimited dollars in extremis. This is up from $2 trillion in 2000.

    The emerging market share – mostly Asian – has doubled to $4.5 trillion since the Lehman crisis, including camouflaged lending through banks registered in London, Zurich or the Cayman Islands.

    The result is that the world credit system is acutely sensitive to any shift by the Fed. “Changes in the short-term policy rate are promptly reflected in the cost of $5 trillion in US dollar bank loans,” said the BIS.CHARTvia The Telegraph

    Markets are already pricing in such a change. The Fed’s so-called “dot plot” – the gauge of future thinking by Fed members – hints at three rate rises this year, kicking off in June.

    The BIS paper’s ominous implications are already visible as the dollar rises at a parabolic rate, smashing the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira, the South African rand and the Malaysian Ringitt, and driving the euro to a 12-year low of $1.06.

    The dollar index (DXY) has soared 24pc since July, and 40pc since mid-2011.

    This is a bigger and steeper rise than the dollar rally in the mid-1990s – also caused by a US recovery at a time of European weakness, and by Fed tightening – which set off the East Asian crisis and Russia’s default in 1998.

    Emerging market governments learned the bitter lesson of that shock. They no longer borrow in dollars. Companies have more than made up for them.

    “The world is on a dollar standard, not a euro or a yen standard, and that is why it matters so much what the Fed does,” said Stephen Jen, a former IMF official now at SLJ Macro Partners.

    He says the latest spasms of stress in emerging markets are more serious than the “taper tantrum” in May 2013, when the Fed first talked of phasing out quantitative easing.

    “Capital flows into these countries have continued to accelerate over recent quarters. This is mostly fickle money. The result is that there is now even more dry wood in the pile to serve as fuel,” he said.

    Mr Jen said Asian and Latin American companies are frantically trying to hedge their dollar debts on the derivatives markets, which drives the dollar even higher and feeds a vicious circle. “This is how avalanches start,” he said.

    Companies are hanging on by their fingertips across the world. Brazilian airline Gol was sitting pretty four years ago when the real was the strongest currency in the world. Three quarters of its debt is in dollars.

    This has now turned into a ghastly currency mismatch as the real goes into free-fall, losing half its value. Interest payments on Gol’s debts have doubled, relative to its income stream in Brazil. The loans must be repaid or rolled over in a far less benign world, if possible at all.

    You would not think it possible that an Asian sovereign wealth fund could run into trouble too, but Malaysia’s 1MDM state fund came close to default earlier this year after borrowing too heavily to buy energy projects and speculate on land. Its bonds are currently trading at junk level.

    It became a piggy bank for the political elites and now faces a corruption probe, a recurring pattern in the BRICS and mini-BRICS as the liquidity tide recedes and exposes the underlying rot.

    BIS data show that the dollar debts of Chinese companies have jumped fivefold to $1.1 trillion since 2008, and are almost certainly higher if disguised sources are included. Among the flow is a $900bn “carry trade” – mostly through Hong Kong – that amounts to a huge collective bet on a falling dollar. Woe betide them if China starts to drive down the yuan to keep growth alive.

    Manoj Pradhan, from Morgan Stanley, said emerging markets were able to weather the dollar spike in 2014 because the world’s deflation scare was still holding down the cost of global funding. These costs are now rising. Even Singapore’s three-month Sibor used for benchmark lending is ratcheting up fast.

    The added twist is that central banks in the developing world have stopped buying foreign bonds, after boosting their reserves from $1 trillion to $11 trillion since 2000.

    The Institute of International Finance (IIF) calculates that the oil slump has slashed petrodollar flows by $375bn a year. Crude exporters will switch from being net buyers of $123bn of foreign bonds and assets in 2013, to net sellers of $90bn this year. Russia sold $13bn in February alone.

    China has also changed sides, becoming a seller late last year as capital flight quickened. Liquidation of reserves automatically entails monetary tightening within these countries, unless offsetting action is taken. China still has the latitude to do this. Russia is not so lucky, and nor is Brazil. If they cut rates, they risk a further currency slide.

    Powerful undercurrents in the world’s financial system are swirling beneath the surface. Some hope that the European Central Bank’s €60bn blast of QE each month will keep the asset boom going as the Fed pulls back, but this is a double-edged effect for the world as a whole. It pushes the dollar yet higher. That may matter more in the end.

    It is possible that the Fed will retreat once again, judging that the world economy is still too fragile to withstand any tightening. The Atlanta Fed’s forecasting model for real GDP growth in the US itself has slowed sharply since mid-February.

    Yet the message from a string of Fed governors over recent days is that rate rises cannot be put off much longer, the Atlanta Fed’s own Dennis Lockhart among them. “All meetings from June onwards should be on the table,” he said.

    The most recent Fed minutes cited worries that the flood of capital coming into the US on the back of the stronger dollar is holding down long-term borrowing rates in the US and effectively loosening monetary policy. This makes Fed tightening even more urgent, in their view, implying a “higher path” for coming rate rises.

    Nobody should count on a Fed reprieve this time. The world must take its punishment.

  5. 1987 Condo says:

    Jobless-289k

  6. jj says:

    Realtors are so clueless that they fail to realize folks househunt on line at work and set up stuff for weekend to see in person.

    Facebook is blocked on nearly every work computer

  7. jj says:

    Great things come in small packages: engagement rings, boutiques, sports cars, etc. Always choose quality over quantity. Size doesn’t matter, and is totally overrated.

    Saw this in a realtor ad for a studio apt for sale. Funny, sounds like place is too small to even get an errection.

  8. grim says:

    Funny to see them think they are making progress towards embracing technology, but from the outside it just looks like a frantic scramble to remain relevant. What they fail to realize is that technology will eliminate a large portion of the profession.

    That said, it’s nearly impossible to think the model will completely change. I just don’t see that happening. Too much of what takes place is traditional sales work, relationship management, face to face. In addition, too few sellers are willing to do the legwork associated with the full process, too much of the closing process will remain manual. Few see the behind the scenes hail mary plays required to get a closing done in time.

  9. anon (the good one) says:

    chilax. lenders will be bailed out
    bonuses are safe

    Real Estate 4ever Not says:
    March 12, 2015 at 8:29 am

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

  10. jj says:

    I sold my last two places without a realtor. I rented my condo and my old coop with out a realtor.

    I used a realtor to buy my last two properties. The sellers used realtors as one couple was in their 80s and not healthy enough to do legwork. Other was a russian not familar with the process and not much of a people person.

    As a buyer I found in both these cased the realtor somewhat useful. As sellers were incompetent.

    However, I lost several deals and seller got less money because a realtor was involved. The last house if guy put it on FSBO, Zillow, Trulia or even a flyer at Train I would have called. Instead he used a realtor, first agent quit company but she was a boob, then second agent I said I am submitting a lower priced off but I dont have to sell a home and not contingent on financing and wont make him fix anything, of course he was insulted. Even after his own agent said it was a more than fair offer. Finally after four months owner gets involved. He botches it up more. Finally, seller gets in fight with realtor pulls listing after four months, realtor threatens to sue him if he attempts to sell it in remaining time period. Finally, realtor gets back to me turns out I was only real offer on house. He had only one other offer 50K less that was contingent on inspection, sale of home and financing. Also turns out the amount we were apart were less than this guys commission. If he just listed it himself, I would have showed up bought house same week for price he wanted. Instead he brought a realtor into process. What an idiot. My town is full of small junky homes. The schools are so so, the town next door has better schools. Most folks with money move to next town. So very very small population of folks looking for trade up homes in my town. In fact maybe 2-3 buyers tops.

    Funny part I was only one who wanted house, now the seller is afraid to talk to me as realtor said he would sue him. So a house where only one person wants it cant be sold. Honestly, stick a for sale sign on your front lawn for one week then hire a realtor. Sometimes your neighbors may want house. My next door neighbor years ago used a realtor he put a for sale sign up, two doors down the owners son saw sign and bought house. Neighbor was pissed. He paid 25K commission for five minutes work. But realtor said you could have done same, you called me.

    Realtors are also sometimes good in condos or coops as extra hurdles.

    grim says:

    March 12, 2015 at 9:10 am

    Funny to see them think they are making progress towards embracing technology, but from the outside it just looks like a frantic scramble to remain relevant. What they fail to realize is that technology will eliminate a large portion of the profession.

    That said, it’s nearly impossible to think the model will completely change. I just don’t see that happening. Too much of what takes place is traditional sales work, relationship management, face to face. In addition, too few sellers are willing to do the legwork associated with the full process, too much of the closing process will remain manual. Few see the behind the scenes hail mary plays required to get a closing done in time.

  11. Anon E. Moose says:

    “They’re not making any new land!”

    Ummm….

  12. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [1];

    You post about Ferguson, awipe responds about minimum wage. Maybe Ferguson just needs jobs like the jihadis do?

  13. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [1] Comrade

    Find the shooters and prosecute them to the letter of the law.

    Re: Yesterday’s convo….as I enter negotiations, I always state that I’m no lawyer. There wouldn’t be any committee or inquiries into it, but I bet it will come up for any Presidential candidates.

  14. joyce says:

    Damn, if only someone would invent some type of handheld computer device… if they were smart, they would give it the ability to make phone calls as well

    jj says:
    March 12, 2015 at 8:35 am
    Realtors are so clueless that they fail to realize folks househunt on line at work and set up stuff for weekend to see in person.

    Facebook is blocked on nearly every work computer

  15. joyce says:

    According to your own story, the sellers would have gotten NOTHING without the help of an agent. Hardly what I’d call “less”

    jj says:
    March 12, 2015 at 9:32 am

    The sellers used realtors as one couple was in their 80s and not healthy enough to do legwork. Other was a russian not familar with the process and not much of a people person.

    As a buyer I found in both these cased the realtor somewhat useful. As sellers were incompetent.

    However, I lost several deals and seller got less money because a realtor was involved.

  16. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    If you are interested in getting a foreclosure, these are the bank’s whose REO sites you should monitor. Along with OneWest and Wells Fargo, the big six are Ally Bank (the former GMAC), Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase
    ——
    Special Monitor OKs Procedures Used by Two of NJ’s Top Mortgage Lenders
    “We continue to work with the New Jersey court system to process foreclosures according to all applicable state and federal laws,” said Kevin Friedlander, regional corporate communications manager for Wells Fargo.
    In the wake of an intervention by state Chief Justice Stuart Rabner in December 2010, Friedlander said, “Loans that are in the foreclosure pipeline appear to be moving through the process better and proceeding to foreclosure sale when no other options are available to borrowers.”
    Still, critics of the banks are not pleased, suggesting the effort by the high court to clean up foreclosure cases has fallen short.
    “I don’t have any faith in the Supreme Court rules because they have not been followed,” said Joshua Denbeaux, a leading foreclosure defense attorney. Wells Fargo “has gotten even more aggressive” about pursuing foreclosures in court, he said. “They never want to settle, they argue over every fact.”
    The debate arises as the foreclosure crisis has receded in much of the country, but is returning to Great Recession levels in New Jersey. Last year, lenders filed more than 54,000 foreclosures here, the third-highest number since records were kept.

    Responding to irregularities in foreclosure cases in New Jersey and elsewhere in the nation, in late 2010 Rabner ordered major lenders to demonstrate the accuracy of their documentation in such cases.
    Court directives aimed the scrutiny at the six largest foreclosure plaintiffs, and another two dozen very active in New Jersey. Along with OneWest and Wells Fargo, the big six are Ally Bank (the former GMAC), Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase. Each group was shepherded before a judge to defend its processes for producing documents and testimony to support foreclosures.
    Their accuracy and reliability is critical, the chief justice said at the time. While New Jersey is among two dozen states that require a judge to sign off before a lender can take a house, 95 percent of those court cases were going uncontested, the Chief Justice noted.

    http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/15/02/18/special-monitor-oks-procedures-followed-by-two-of-new-jersey-s-largest-mortgage-lenders/

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Inflation or bust? Position yourself to take advantage. Play or be played.

    Real Estate 4ever Not says:
    March 12, 2015 at 8:29 am
    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph

    Sitting on the desks of central bank governors and regulators across the world is a scholarly report that spells out the vertiginous scale of global debt in US dollars, and gently hints at the horrors in store as the US Federal Reserve turns off the liquidity spigot.

  18. joyce says:

    “Responding to irregularities in foreclosure cases in New Jersey and elsewhere in the nation, in late 2010 Rabner ordered major lenders to demonstrate the accuracy of their documentation in such cases.”

    I see they’re still being referred to as ‘irregularities’ … and how dare they be made to demonstrate accurate documentation, what gall

  19. Jason says:

    1. Anon is a toxic twitter twit.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    18- This makes me want to buy more hard assets like real estate. Even if the economy goes up in smoke, land will always have value in strategic locations. You have to live, and living requires using land to survive. He who has the valuable land, has the power. I would say this is the main reason your first investment should be in real estate. It’s the reason real estate is better than stocks. Stocks can become worthless, good land always holds value. You can never lose on a good piece of land.

  21. Juice Box says:

    re: # 18 – Inflation or bust?

    By the law of supply and demand, when there is more to go around, each $ is worth less.

    Only need to look at the Euro right now to see that.

    ZIRP and QE forever.

  22. Juice Box says:

    re # 21- “valuable land”

    Go long Detroit.

  23. grim says:

    The issue is borrower default on a loan. Arguing over paperwork is simply a tactic to forestall foreclosure, it’s not the issue. It was always the case. MERS, Robosigning, etc etc. Lawyers made more money over these issues than the banks ever did.

  24. joyce says:

    Making money is the wrong metric to apply.
    MERS, robosigning, etc was not meant to make the banks any money; it was about covering up previous “irregularities”.

    “The issue is borrower default on a loan.” Why haven’t all the previous foreclosures pre-2000’s resulted in so many problems?

  25. phoenix says:

    24.
    The whole thing was just a pump and dump. Those in the know made money on both the upside and downside.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Isn’t that the truth.

    phoenix says:
    March 12, 2015 at 10:41 am
    24.
    The whole thing was just a pump and dump. Those in the know made money on both the upside and downside.

  27. Ragnar says:

    4,
    “The world must take its punishment”
    Things are cracking at the edges. Brazilian currency has been breaking down lately, Russia obviously. Greece the living example of the welfare state end-times. But these are pretty small exceptions. Politicians and bureaucrats in wealthy countries will do all they can to defer punishment while making the painfulness of the eventual reckoning even greater. They hope they’ll be dead or retired on a protected pension by then. But reality always eventually bites.

  28. phoenix says:

    Stock market pump and dump is coming. Those in the know will have their money out before the lemmings in their 401k (employer based, high fees, no phone call to the corporate jet to let them know the bomb just dropped) have time to get theirs out. Next they get their statements and are so shell shocked they will sell just at the time that those in the know will be buying at the low prices.
    They will be the next group of retirees with no savings.

  29. phoenix says:

    28. Greeks have a bad habit of avoiding paying taxes….
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/world/europe/02evasion.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

  30. Essex says:

    Business insider : High-end American homes are hot among foreign investors.

    Last year, the Association of Realtors reported that they spent $92.2 billion on US homes over a 12-month period, up 35% from a year earlier. Chinese investors spent $22 billion, up 72%. They paid a median price of $523,000. And 76% paid cash. They’re desperate to get their money out of China!

    Yet with all the official vigilance and handwringing in the US about money laundering and the crackdown on Americans trying to stash some money overseas to escape the sinewy arm of US tax authorities, no one in America apparently asks foreigners where this money comes from.

    Other trophy cities where rich foreigners from corrupt countries like to buy are Washington DC, Miami, and New York. Last month, the New York Times ran a series of articles on how foreigners, particularly rich Russians, hide behind shell companies to buy high-dollar condos at the Time Warner Center and elsewhere in Manhattan:

    In the decade and a half since Mr. Putin came to power, Russians have socked away hundreds of billions of dollars overseas. Even as the Kremlin was promoting what it called a “deoffshorization” campaign to repatriate Russian capital, an estimated $150 billion left the country last year….

    For many wealthy Russians, a New York condo serves as a double parachute – a safe-deposit box of sorts, and a soft landing spot should the climate back home turn inhospitable or dangerous – even if that apartment sits dark and vacant for most of the year. In the process, the Russians, while not quite as ubiquitous as they are in, say, some of the tonier districts of London, have become the face of a sharpening debate about the impact of New York’s pied-à-terre economy.

    Michael Bloomberg, when he was still mayor of New York City, said in an interview that these rich foreigners were “a godsend” to the city’s economy. “Wouldn’t it be great if we could get all the Russian billionaires to move here?” the billionaire said.

    But it’s a murky business.

    Now Global Financial Integrity, a Washington DC non-profit, and 16 other groups sent a joint letter to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. It spells out just how murky this business is – and how easy it is to “spend millions of dollars” anonymously in deals that are eagerly “facilitated” by the US real estate industry:

    Investors mask the true ownership of property in the United States through anonymous companies. The effects of such companies go far beyond hiding the ultimate owners of Manhattan’s real estate. Anonymous companies allow corrupt politicians and organized crime to transfer and hide illicitly acquired funds worldwide, and fuel an abuse of power and a culture of impunity. The ability to conceal their illicitly-obtained-gains fuels corruption, breeds instability, and diverts resources from those they should benefit.

    The letter laments “the lack of due diligence by the real estate industry into buyers’ identities, backgrounds, or the sources of their funds.” It refers to a report by the Senate Permanent Sub-Committee on Investigations in 2010 that showed “how foreign kleptocrats and their close associates were undermining US anti-money laundering controls….”

  31. jj says:

    Some firms like Goldman forbid use of handhold devices during trading hours. Plus Facebook is like so 2006. Only folks on it are bored housewifes. Redfin works much better on my smartphone, facebook I have to look at a thousand dancing cat pictures to find a house listing.

    joyce says:

    March 12, 2015 at 9:57 am

    Damn, if only someone would invent some type of handheld computer device… if they were smart, they would give it the ability to make phone calls as well

    jj says:
    March 12, 2015 at 8:35 am
    Realtors are so clueless that they fail to realize folks househunt on line at work and set up stuff for weekend to see in person.

    Facebook is blocked on nearly every work computer

  32. jj says:

    If I was a realtor I would add value. Two realtors recently said there is no inventory to sell me. But when a listing is posted online that matches my needs they will set up an auto email. Both times I said I have that inquiry set up on Redfin and Trulia I get them already. How does that add value?

    I then said there are approximately at tops 50 homes in town that match my criteria. Can you call them up on phone or go on knock on the door and see if they want to sell. I can even give you list of addresses. They said no. Honestly, I gladly pay them the fee if they do some work. They are like Jappy girls who expect me to get on top and do all the work. You want 6% you need to work it like a crack ho.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    31- Does not this quote from that article support my post earlier today?

    “This makes me want to buy more hard assets like real estate. Even if the economy goes up in smoke, land will always have value in strategic locations. You have to live, and living requires using land to survive. He who has the valuable land, has the power. I would say this is the main reason your first investment should be in real estate. It’s the reason real estate is better than stocks. Stocks can become worthless, good land always holds value. You can never lose on a good piece of land.”

    “For many wealthy Russians, a New York condo serves as a double parachute – a safe-deposit box of sorts, and a soft landing spot should the climate back home turn inhospitable or dangerous – even if that apartment sits dark and vacant for most of the year. In the process, the Russians, while not quite as ubiquitous as they are in, say, some of the tonier districts of London, have become the face of a sharpening debate about the impact of New York’s pied-à-terre economy.”

  34. grim says:

    I really don’t care about the personal life of my agent, nor do I think I care to share details of my personal life with them. I still fail to see how Facebook is relevant?

  35. grim says:

    Likewise with Twitter, I doubt I would be corresponding with an agent in a public forum about purchasing a house. Knowing the details involved in the process, I’d argue that none of the social channels are secure enough to serve as a conduit for personal or private information.

  36. Anon E. Moose says:

    All through the bubble years we heard about how New York is dripping in money, with wealthy foreigners carrying briefcases of cash snapping up metropolitan pied-a-terres…

    Does that mean the bubble didn’t really pop? That ’08-’12 was an illusion?

    Yes, they exist. But there aren’t 8.5 million of them.

    Shocked that Pumpkin swallows the argument like its tripe…

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [35, 36];

    WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN!?!?!

    Nothing. Its gibberish. Word salad.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    Today’s article is one of the best ever. When you think they can’t invent new strategies, this beauty emerges. Comedic gold! Still doesn’t beat the “stick people falling into the jaws of the monster” post but this is in the running for top three. The housing market in North Jersey is approaching seven years post-bubble and it’s worse now than it’s ever been. My personal chapter has been completed and I am officially done looking to make a move.

  39. Essex says:

    Sounds legit…Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s administration has over the past five years paid at least $6.5 million in taxpayer fees to Prudential Financial to manage New Jersey pension funds, even after company officials made substantial contributions to Christie’s 2009 gubernatorial campaign, International Business Times has learned. One of the Prudential officials was Christie’s top fundraiser, adviser and donor. Christie appointees nonetheless maintained investment contracts with Prudential despite state rules that require such contracts to be canceled when executives at firms managing pension money donate to or raise money for state lawmakers.

    “It sounds like it’s a clear conflict with the rules,” said Melanie Sloan, a former U.S. Department of Justice official who served as executive director of the watchdog group CREW (Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington), after IBTimes described its findings. “It seems like this thing is a clear violation of the rules. The rules just haven’t been enforced and now everyone is scrambling for cover.”

    State documents show that Jon Hanson, who served on Prudential Financial’s board of directors until 2011, and his wife each donated $6,800 to Christie’s campaign in 2009. While leading Prudential, Hanson also served as finance chairman of Christie’s gubernatorial campaign, spearheading Christie’s fundraising operation. In 2009, when Hanson donated and raised the campaign money, New Jersey was investing hundreds of millions of dollars of state pension money in the company’s subsidiaries.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    What the warm weather appears to be carrying with it: some unexpected, pent-up demand and some badly needed inventory, according to a few New Jersey brokers.

    This is f.ucking beautiful. It has the words “unexpected” and “pent-up” in the same sentence and some random space filling blurb according to some random brokers. Geezus, this is text book! What a dreadful industry.

  41. phoenix says:

    41. Eddie,
    Be patient. Bag holders are bagholders because they were allowed to borrow money based on their income and the appraised value of the property. Someone from the BANKS did the appraisal. They were professionals, were they not? Banks put those mortgages into MBS’s, these were appraised by professionals (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch).
    Can all of these professionals be wrong? How can houses be underwater if they were appraised correctly…………..

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    phoenix,

    Understood, but I’m done. I stay where I am. The market is in quicksand for years and will continue to be. It’s very bad. I was lucky to land what I did when I did. I’m done.

  43. anon (the good one) says:

    jj, this true?

    @JasonAbbruzzese:
    Average Wall St. bonus for securities industry employees hits $172,860, highest since 2007

  44. ccb223 says:

    NYC Real Estate. Anon M: No, the bubble didn’t really pop in NYC.

    Bought my NYC apt in April 2007 (couldn’t have had worse timing) … at the trough it was down maybe 6-7% and now it’s back up about 20% from where I bough it.

    This isn’t Miami, NYC wasn’t a very volatile RE market … and yes with the Fed juicing and record stock markets the rich (and especially the rich foreigners) have been driving up NYC real estate significantly the last few years. Tribeca and the West Village are especially insane, talking over $3K a sq ft. And that’s not even for the super high-end stuff.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [13] moose,

    “You post about Ferguson, awipe responds about minimum wage. Maybe Ferguson just needs jobs like the jihadis do?”

    Actually, yes. Yes, they do.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nyc is prime real estate. That is what drives up the prices to these levels. There are very few places in the world where your money is safer. This attracts foreign millionaires/billionaires to park their money here as a means of protection. You can think it’s not true, but the numbers say otherwise. Real estate did pop in NYC, but it was a quick recovery due to the NYC economy being one of the first places the economy grows.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:41 am
    All through the bubble years we heard about how New York is dripping in money, with wealthy foreigners carrying briefcases of cash snapping up metropolitan pied-a-terres…

    Does that mean the bubble didn’t really pop? That ’08-’12 was an illusion?

    Yes, they exist. But there aren’t 8.5 million of them.

    Shocked that Pumpkin swallows the argument like its tripe…

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    [21] Punkin,

    “The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 12, 2015 at 10:19 am
    18- This makes me want to buy more hard assets like real estate. ”

    Plenty of motivated sellers in the suburbs just east of the St. Louis airport. That’s strategically located, right?

  48. joyce says:

    “we’ve not been able to identify it as of yet. But it did have quite a number of characteristics that were similar to a cannabis plant.”

    Indeed! Like cannabis, okra is green and it has leaves.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/06/heavily-armed-drug-cops-raid-retirees-garden-seize-okra-plants/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_3_na

  49. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:39 am
    Likewise with Twitter, I doubt I would be corresponding with an agent in a public forum about purchasing a house. Knowing the details involved in the process, I’d argue that none of the social channels are secure enough to serve as a conduit for personal or private information.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSSDeesUUsU

  50. JJ says:

    Sounds about right. But remember Lloyd Blankein, Jamie Dimon etc. type CEO counts in the average.

    This year a lot of clerical type cube dwellers from second tier schools even got 100K to 200K bonuses.

    A lot of data is is wacky this year cause they count it for NYS state when you actually get the cash not when you get the restricted or defered comp portion. . And nearly every firm no longer gives options they give restricted stock that vests in three years normally if a GAAP company and two years if an IFRS company. IFRS is like a foreign broker dealer that owns a US bank or broker dealer vs a pure american company such as Goldman.

    So lets say you are a lower rank employee person in Financial Reporting at Goldman in a cube. You bonus you just got the cash part is based on a good 2014 year for stocks, which it was. Remember Budget vs. Actual. Wall Street expected a lower stock revenue trading year so cut costs when they did the budget for 2014 meanwhile stocks went up so extra cash for bonus.

    Now flash back to Feb 2012, coming off a mini correction of stocks in 2011. Goldman gave you a bunch of restricted stock vesting in three years. GS stock was around 92 three years ago today it is like 184. It doubled. Yea, your bonus is now twice as big with no work on your part

    So a cube dweller at Goldman usually gets around 75-100 Cash, 75-100 stock. So this year being good he might have got 100K cash plus 200K stock vest.

    Dig down in the financials at GS and the SS match is a 1Q event only meaning everyone has hit the match in the first quarter. Did deeper and you see nearly everyone hits it in January, the latest Feb. Pretty much by March 1st around 100 percent of GS employees have earned over 100K and that includes the guy whose ink is wet on his degree.

    Also in Feb 2012 at places like GS, Morgan, etc. Only rock stars were left. They pruned the trees of all the dead wood between 2008 and 2011. The remaining emloyees had a bigger pool to share with less employees. And retention became an issue. You needed these folks as you cut deep in 2009 and by 2012 it was very apparant the tides have shifted.

    anon (the good one) says:
    March 12, 2015 at 1:19 pm
    jj, this true?

    @JasonAbbruzzese:
    Average Wall St. bonus for securities industry employees hits $172,860, highest since 2007

  51. JJ says:

    Plus I would not get a free ride in their four door buick while I admire their 90s powersuit left over from there last real job

    chicagofinance says:
    March 12, 2015 at 1:43 pm
    grim says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:39 am
    Likewise with Twitter, I doubt I would be corresponding with an agent in a public forum about purchasing a house. Knowing the details involved in the process, I’d argue that none of the social channels are secure enough to serve as a conduit for personal or private information.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSSDeesUUsU

  52. joyce says:

    Within an hour of FOX31 Denver discovering a hidden camera, which was positioned to capture and record the license plates and facial features of customers leaving a Golden Post Office, the device was ripped from the ground and disappeared.

    Our FOIA requests for federal contracts and financial information … were returned to us void of all information.

    http://kdvr.com/2015/03/11/mysterious-spy-cameras-collecting-data-at-post-offices/

  53. JJ says:

    Who cares. As far back as 1990 my old company the Data Center and Vault location, filmed every car into lot, a picture of your plate and model car was taken and automatically ran through FBI data base. That is even if you entered lot to make an Uturn.

    At JFK they fingerprint and scan.

    Heck one job, I took a lie detector test, background check, got bonded, took a drug test, physical, IQ test and submitted to one hour on a Psychologist couch. I also had nine interviews and they checked transcripts, references and prior employment history.

    What do folks have to hid? if someone mails a bomb they need the video

    Joyce says:
    March 12, 2015 at 2:12 pm
    Within an hour of FOX31 Denver discovering a hidden camera, which was positioned to capture and record the license plates and facial features of customers leaving a Golden Post Office, the device was ripped from the ground and disappeared.

    Our FOIA requests for federal contracts and financial information … were returned to us void of all information.

    http://kdvr.com/2015/03/11/mysterious-spy-cameras-collecting-data-at-post-offices/

  54. joyce says:

    Your private company had access to the FBI database?

    Been to JFK countless times, never once was I finger printed.

  55. JJ says:

    Yes. My old company, years ago had former FBI agents in charge of security. We had the recently retired Head of the Long Island FBI office as head of security. At one point in the late 1980s, the force consisted of all ex cops, ex FBI agents all of then carrying guns. My CEO had 1,000 armed men working for him. We used to joke we could start a war if we wanted.

    But remember, back then you had cash, bearer bonds, gold, coins, Stock Certificates, bank checks, petty cash, fed wire links, ACH terminals etc. Today it is cyber crime. Back then it was real crime.

    I had my prints run with FBI maybe 20 times. I also used to be bonded. Even had DoD clearance at one job. I also have D&O and umbrella policies.

    Back in the day I wish I could have brought in a camera I was in a vault with a trillion dollars of stuff like bearer bond, art, gold etc. I wanted to roll in it like Mr. Crabby on Sponge Bob, but reality it was size of a football field with 20 foot high ceilings. And it had man traps and the gold bars were too heavy to lift you need a fork lift. Also only one way in and out pass a guard who was armed and had shoot to kill instructions. Which means a head shot in case you have a bullet proof vest. It also had silent alarms that would lock you in and Hylon gas or suck oxygen out. Motion sensers, cameras, heat detectors. Apprantly the joke was with 1,000 armed guards unless you bring at least 1,001 armed men it was not going to end well.

    joyce says:
    March 12, 2015 at 2:24 pm
    Your private company had access to the FBI database?

    Been to JFK countless times, never once was I finger printed.

  56. JJ says:

    Cause you are a US Citzen.

    joyce says:
    March 12, 2015 at 2:24 pm
    Your private company had access to the FBI database?

    Been to JFK countless times, never once was I finger printed.

  57. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    People have a false sense of comfort that your neighbor does not have a nefarious background because they spent millions on a property, but you don’t know who your neighbor is.

    [31] Essex

    Investors mask the true ownership of property in the United States through anonymous companies. The effects of such companies go far beyond hiding the ultimate owners of Manhattan’s real estate. Anonymous companies allow corrupt politicians and organized crime to transfer and hide illicitly acquired funds worldwide, and fuel an abuse of power and a culture of impunity. The ability to conceal their illicitly-obtained-gains fuels corruption, breeds instability, and diverts resources from those they should benefit.

  58. joyce says:

    56
    How did they have direct access to the FBI databases?

  59. chicagofinance says:

    How do you know?

    joyce says:
    March 12, 2015 at 2:24 pm
    Your private company had access to the FBI database?

    Been to JFK countless times, never once was I finger printed.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: Did you see freakin’ DIS?

    What do you think of AMBA and/or HEDJ?

  61. JJ says:

    They sell the feed. The SEC now wants everyone’s fingerprints run through the data base at least every 36 months in banking an brokerage. You need to be fingerprinted to get job, they re-run then to catch folks with DWIs, or other convictions etc.

    A long time ago before they did this I knew a guy who had a good job at a big insurance broker. Got a DWI and was convicted. Current job did not re-background check employees but any job he would apply for did. He got stuck in that job like a decade. Today he be out the door in 36months.

    joyce says:
    March 12, 2015 at 3:07 pm
    56
    How did they have direct access to the FBI databases?

  62. JJ says:

    DIS got a good old Blue Collar South Shore Public School educated CEO who calls his Mom every day and Mom and Dad live in a plain old 60×100 house a few miles from me to this day.

    Best type of CEO>

  63. Ragnar says:

    anon, 44
    Still celebratng the Obama/Yellen trickle down economic policies? Driving up asset prices which in turn drives up investment bank compensation, while driving down returns for the most common investment asset of the poor, bank savings accounts.

    You can answer after you remove your mouth from Steve Jobs’ cold dead dick.

  64. JJ says:

    Next strong day for Euro me may buy some HedJ

  65. JJ says:

    Savings accounts are not investments. It is a place to park cash between investments.

    Ragnar says:
    March 12, 2015 at 3:38 pm
    anon, 44
    Still celebratng the Obama/Yellen trickle down economic policies? Driving up asset prices which in turn drives up investment bank compensation, while driving down returns for the most common investment asset of the poor, bank savings accounts.

    You can answer after you remove your mouth from Steve Jobs’ cold dead dick.

  66. joyce says:

    62

    I thought we were talking about the FBI’s automotive database?

    “a picture of your plate and model car was taken and automatically ran through FBI data base. “

  67. joyce says:

    The act of finger printing is pretty up close and personal… you could have tried to say something about scanning. Where do you imagine this may have happened? The duty free shop?

    chicagofinance says:
    March 12, 2015 at 3:21 pm
    How do you know?

  68. Statler Waldorf says:

    Investments are not savings accounts. They’re a place to park cash you’re willing to lose.

  69. POS cape says:

    Some of today’s topic almost sounds like it was BOT written, or by a non-native English speaker at best. My favorite line:

    “A broker is no longer held to physical face-to-face meetings, but can now give access to view the home virtually via technology…”

    You mean like photos on Zillow?

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    This paragraph so reminded me of discussions here:

    “n their book, Twenge and Campbell list some of the things that contribute to narcissism: public schools that tolerate mediocrity; a nurturing culture where everyone gets a trophy; social media, where everyone with an opinion can share it; a celebrity and reality show culture that tells Americans anyone can be famous. At the top of the list though: parenting.”

    So we really ought to be bitchslapping anon’s parents.

  71. JJ says:

    The average cost of a wedding last year exceeded $31,213, up 4.5% from $29,858 the previous year and an increase of 16% from a recent low of $26,984 in 2010, according to a survey of 15,800 brides by wedding website The Knot. The most expensive place to get married last year was Manhattan (an average cost of $76,328) — five times the cost of getting married in Utah, the least expensive place (where the average wedding cost just $15,257). Long Island, N.Y. ($55,327), North-Central New Jersey ($53,986), Westchester County and Hudson Valley, N.Y. ($52,954) and Chicago ($50,934) also topped the list of the most expensive places to get hitched.

    wow 55k to get hitched on LI but only 54k to get hitched in NJ

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:

    Again, tangentially related to real estate and guaranteed to fry anon/footrest/ccb/rory martin’s onions . . . well, perhaps not rory’s.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/passport-king-christian-kalin-helps-nations-sell-citizenship

  73. 1987 Condo says:

    #72..place around the corner from me charges around $300 per head

  74. Juice Box says:

    re # 72 – it costs more in Long Island because they have to import good food.

  75. Liquor Luge says:

    Today’s thread article and topic take the cake.

    I will now return to dry shaving my face with a cheese grater…

  76. NJT says:

    An insurance company I worked for (in IT) had the most thorough background screening I’ve ever had to endure (worse than the USAF and/or obtaining a TS security clearance later in life with NO criminal record, perfect health, insignificant debt and not even a parking ticket). They wanted to know and see EVERYTHING! QUICKLY! (Including the personal cell phone numbers of my three previous managers at different companies).

    The info. I had access to was…surprising to say the least so I do now feel it was justified (how they did business was, IMPO, not but that’s another story).

    Former neighbor of mine used to work for a gov. agency as a contractor. EVERY TIME (about once a year) he got a new gig the F.B.I. would stop by and ask me about him. Never the same agent. They’d always ask the same questions so once, as a joke, I replied: “…I don’t know but once in a while I see him out on his deck kneeling on a rug praying and facing east…”. ALL of them flipped out and I got another visit that wasn’t so friendly then a call from a close friend in gov. employ I hadn’t seen in years asking what the f–k?

    On the other hand while IT contracting back in the late 90s I could have put down anything as NONE of them (OK, except Goldman – they didn’t like me having multiple mortgages on positive cash flow rental properties…afraid I’d steal! HA!) even called personal references. Yeah, after a couple gigs I embellished a little but not as bad as H1-Bs do now.

    Pharma. was serious too but, more AFTER you started working there.

    Tired of being under a microscope…just a few years to go.

    Oh, yeah, I’ll NEVER deal with Wells again. For a measly $100,000 mortgage on a rental they almost got me fired for annoying HR and senior people at my employer.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I feel bad for those homeowners. At the same time, how much of a hit are they really taking? Their properties were already pretty much worthless.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, who needs to stop screwing around and get back to work says:
    March 12, 2015 at 1:42 pm

    [21] Punkin,

    “The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 12, 2015 at 10:19 am
    18- This makes me want to buy more hard assets like real estate. ”

    Plenty of motivated sellers in the suburbs just east of the St. Louis airport. That’s strategically located, right?

  78. WickedOrange says:

    Written by one of my co-workers

    Buying a House Was the Worst Mistake of My Life
    http://www.themid.com/livelihood/buying-a-house-was-the-worst-mistake-of-my-life?u=fmGYs1yTD9

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