Is 20% even possible anymore?

From Bloomberg:

Want a House? Good Luck With the Down Payment

Saving for a down payment has long been a big challenge for anyone who wants to buy a home. And it got harder after the financial crisis, as lenders insisted on down payments of 20 percent or more for conventional mortgages, which make up the bulk of the market.

That seems to be changing a bit — perhaps because so many consumers have paid down other debt and have raised their credit scores. Since 2010, the average down payment has declined to 18.4 percent from 21.4 percent, according to data from Realtytrac. (Just by way of comparison, it was about 2 percent at the peak of the housing bubble.)

For a lender, there are certain drawbacks to loans with less than 20 percent down. For one, the loans sometime don’t qualify for a government guarantee or insurance. There also is a practical reason for the 20 percent standard: Historically, when a property went into default, banks could foreclose and then sell quickly at say a 20 percent discount, and still recoup their investment. Banks also see bigger down payments as a way to ensure that borrowers have more at stake, tamping down the speculation that contributed to the housing bubble.

For many buyers, however, the down payment hurdle remains a source of frustration, making it hard for many people to benefit from mortgage rates that have been at or near record lows for several years.

This entry was posted in Housing Recovery, Mortgages, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

146 Responses to Is 20% even possible anymore?

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Where does your state rank on mortgage down payments?

    The average down payment across the nation is dropping, signaling now is a good time to enter the homebuying market, according to a new report from LendingTree.

    Down payment percentages for conventional 30-year fixed rate purchase mortgages decreased in the first quarter to an average of 16.98%, down from 17.59%, in fourth quarter 2014.

    The average down payment amount also fell quarter-over-quarter to $44,007 from $47,585 in the previous quarter.

    “As lenders need more mortgage volume, average down payments start to drop,” said Doug Lebda, founder and CEO of LendingTree. “More lenders are beginning to loosen their guidelines and are going after a slightly broader pool of potential borrowers. For first time homebuyers, this spring and summer homebuying season is proving itself to be an excellent time to enter the market.”

  2. grim says:

    Highest Downpayment States
    1. Hawaii
    2. New York
    3. California
    4. D.C.
    5. New Jersey

  3. leftwing says:

    Interesting. A little bit counter intuitive for me at first. The highest cost states seem to also be the highest percentage downpayment. Would have thought that the high cost would mean people are less likely to be able to come up with the higher DP at 20%.

    Would be interesting to overlay that map with a default map. Are the DPs higher in areas that defaulted more during the crisis? Can’t imagine, makes too much sense.

  4. Libturd in the City says:

    Shalom my brothas.

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume, Land Snark says:

    [4] libturd

    Salaam aleikum

  6. Don’t worry. The sausage grinder is being re-tooled, and the days of no-doc, NINJA, no VOE, no-brainer loans will most certainly be revisited.

    The chimps-in-charge have no ideas as to how to proceed, other than to attempt to reanimate the Frankenstein-on-life-support we call the current housing market.

  7. leftwing says:

    Wiley, from yesterday.

    Bet on it. Had a situation with a property, completion stalled in litigation. Did the absolute best I could out of my own pocket to make the exterior very presentable. Neighborhood knew my hands were effectively tied. Immediate neighbors were fine. Got it to the point where unless you knew something was up you couldn’t tell. A drive by of the house, looked normal. A handful of neighbors farther away seemed to have a h@rd-on, tried making life miserable.

    Town worked with me but they got pressured and started issuing citations. Finally shut it down by a review of the code. Told the enforcement officer that since one of the complaints referenced ‘safety’ if he issued another complaint he should also include the specifications for the height of the chain link fence to surround the property and size of the “danger – no trespassing” signs, for both our protection of course. Also had a lawyer friend shoot a letter to the council requesting copies of all emails among council members referencing the property or we would go FOIA. That would effectively would disclose the names of the complainers to us. Word of both got back to the neighbors, everything stopped.

    Biggest issue I had was the gutlessness of the ‘neighbors’. If you have an issue with my building, lawn, or whatever just knock on my door and have a civil discussion. We may find out something about each other in addition to resolving it like humans and neighbors. Pu$$y little coward runs to teacher instead.

    If you want your lawn that way, look at the codes. There is certainly some loophole especially with all the ‘green’ concerns these days.

  8. anon (the good one) says:

    wha?!
    there’s nothing counter intuitive about it. fat cats have dought = live in expensive areas, high d/p. lower income workers the opposite. it’s obvious

    leftwing says:
    June 16, 2015 at 7:07 am
    Interesting. A little bit counter intuitive for me at first. The highest cost states seem to also be the highest percentage downpayment. Would have thought that the high cost would mean people are less likely to be able to come up with the higher DP at 20%.

  9. leftwing says:

    Actually, the biggest issue I have with the above are the spoiled brats posing as adults who believe that simply because they want something of yours their way you have to do it.

    I am so glad I grew up in a geography with a rich history where the first response to that pi$$ a$$ attitude is a large FU.

  10. anon (the good one) says:

    same reason why expensive areas have lower rate of mortgage defaults than inexpensive areas, capiche?

  11. grim says:

    I would imagine that both higher incomes and higher resale equity drive higher down payments relative.

  12. leftwing says:

    “wha?! there’s nothing counter intuitive about it. fat cats have dought = live in expensive areas, high d/p. lower income workers the opposite. it’s obvious”

    Right, because we are talking about *average* downpayments. Guess that 1%er crowd just exploded in number to affect the *average* down payment.

    Arithmetic. Learn it, it’s a good thing.

    Whoops, I think you slipped up there anon and showed the liberals’ true colors. It’s not just the 1%ers you consider ‘fat cats’ for the picking, it’s everyone.

  13. Libturd in the City says:

    lefty,

    Couldn’t tell if you were referring to the village idiot or the unfriendly neighbors in your story. Both fit the narrative.

  14. grim says:

    there’s nothing counter intuitive about it. fat cats have dought = live in expensive areas, high d/p. lower income workers the opposite. it’s obvious

    So why is it that in NJ, we have the second lowest poverty by income ratio of all 50 states (6.8%)?

    Contrast this to low cost areas like Mississippi and Louisiana which have poverty rates of 20.1% and 18.3% respectively.

  15. leftwing says:

    Grim, think you nailed it with higher resale equity. Leverage in at the lower (first) home purchase, all gains in value go straight to equity, roll that in next purchase yields a higher DP % than first home. Also makes sense in the context that data is 1Q2015 and we know sales are mostly not starters in that period.

    Higher incomes less effect I would think. Seem to recall from somewhere high cost areas have some of the worst leverage ratios. Would imply those people are stretching to buy in = less relative financial stability and lower DP. (capiche that one anon?)

  16. grim says:

    Perhaps if we want to solve income inequality, we should consider focusing on the areas with the lowest incomes?

    Mississipi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennesee, Louisiana, etc etc.

    Why is the focus on increasing incomes in major urban metros? Sure, it’s moving the bottom half upwards, but break the income up into more granular segments, and I bet it doesn’t lift the bottom most tiers, primarily because of these very poor areas.

    What am I missing anon?

    This needs to be looked at as a nationwide aggregate. Major urban metros will always have significant inequality, primarily because they are the hubs of social support and service programs for the poor, mass transit, lower cost housing options, etc. As well as home to major corporations, with highly paid workers, etc.

  17. Libturd in the City says:

    He’s waiting for the answer on Twitter.

  18. leftwing says:

    Yes!!! CBS This Morning segment on crackdown nationally on left lane hangers on the highway.

    38 states have fines. 22 states classify as misdemeanor.

    “Can you direct me to the Pennsylvania Parkway? Yeah, the left hand lane of any NJ highway.”

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Two years ago, I was driving on rt 46 in little falls. I was in the left lane behind someone going 40 mph. I hit the signal and passed them on the right. Jerk off passaic county sheriff officer pulls me over for passing on the right. I told him that the lady was going 40 mph in the left lane, why should I have to stay behind her if she is going 40 mph in the left lane of a highway. He agreed, but stated that he had to give me the ticket because I did it in front of him. My buddy that is a state trooper said he must have been having a really bad day, he never heard of someone getting a ticket for passing on the right.

    I can’t stand 46 and the people that clog up the left lane on that highway. Left lane is for passing, not sunday driving.

    leftwing says:
    June 16, 2015 at 7:52 am
    Yes!!! CBS This Morning segment on crackdown nationally on left lane hangers on the highway.

    38 states have fines. 22 states classify as misdemeanor.

    “Can you direct me to the Pennsylvania Parkway? Yeah, the left hand lane of any NJ highway.”

  20. Libturd in the City says:

    Pumps,

    My dad once got a ticket for driving to slow.

    Passing on the right is my biggest pet peeve, besides those so engulfed in their smart phones at red lights that they cause you not to make it through the green. Though, I’ll pass on the right only after I give a left lane hugger the brights and they ignore it. I am one to stare them down as I pass them, but I don’t cut them off (which I see many do). I also always get back into the middle lane. Additionally, I am one of those fools who uses his blinkers. I may be the only one.

  21. Essex says:

    Did the math. Staying put for now. Market looks anemic. No reason to jump now.

  22. Libturd in the City says:

    Essex…If I were a betting man, I would agree. Though, I would argue that this may be the best time to sell, but not to buy for a while. If you can sell now and find a cheap place to rent until a clear direction evolves, you’d be best off. It does appear that late 2011/early 2012 was the recent trough. Much harder to find the peaks imo.

  23. leftwing says:

    SX

    Likewise. I’m teeing up for Oct-Nov. Thinking more inventory will continue to spring loose on the back of the positive Spring season and demand will slack off once school deadlines pass. May leave some sellers concerned as houses age up 90 days and the holidays are around the corner.

    If not, gotta bite the bullet…..

  24. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    Locusts eating the corn……

    Withdrawals from 401(k) plans are now exceeding new contributions as baby boomers age, a shift that could have profound implications for the U.S. retirement industry.

  25. leftwing says:

    Also, wouldn’t mind a Greek crisis and Fed action pumping rates to tap the brakes in Sept too.

  26. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    I thought a Greek crisis is when you eat yogurt that has turned a bit and you are nowhere near a bathroom……

  27. D-FENS says:

    EXCLUSIVE: President Ronald Reagan’s biggest secret: He packed heat in his briefcase

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-ronald-reagan-packed-heat-briefcase-article-1.2257391

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol…feel the same way. 46 is notorious for left lane huggers that love driving below the speed limit. Nothing like being in the left lane and watching traffic pass you on the right.

    First time I have ever heard of someone getting a ticket for driving slow. Your dad must have my luck. Did a sheriff pull him over?

    Libturd in the City says:
    June 16, 2015 at 8:14 am
    Pumps,

    My dad once got a ticket for driving to slow.

    Passing on the right is my biggest pet peeve, besides those so engulfed in their smart phones at red lights that they cause you not to make it through the green. Though, I’ll pass on the right only after I give a left lane hugger the brights and they ignore it. I am one to stare them down as I pass them, but I don’t cut them off (which I see many do). I also always get back into the middle lane. Additionally, I am one of those fools who uses his blinkers. I may be the only one.

  29. leftwing says:

    26. I’m sure JJ has an entirely different definition…….

    Still arbing my vacation. Will be there starting on 29th. Need a euro crash. Damn bunds.

  30. [16] And income inequality discussions end at US borders, right?

    Job 1: $15-$25 minimum wage for US “inhabitants”.
    Job 2: Tax the Rich, until they finally pay their fair share.

    Job ?: 2.2 billion people who get by on less than $2/day?

    It would seem to me that solving income inequality would start with getting the 2.2 billion up to $8/hour, before the relatively rich Walmart greeters start wetting their beak. Anyone earning $8/hour is obviously not paying their fair share.

  31. grim says:

    30 – We could nuke China.

  32. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Ideally the left lane should be empty unless you are passing someone.

  33. Left lane hangers, RH passers, LOL.

    Back in the late 90’s I used to commute from the NH seacoast down to Boston. Coming down 95 South in the morning, 65mph, 4 lanes of travel. It was widely agreed upon by behavior that it worked this way:

    Left lane: 75-80mph
    Middle two lanes: 65-75mph and all trucks
    Right lane: > 80mph

    If you dare went the speed limit in the RH lane you would have someone going 85mph flashing their high beams at you in a heartbeat! I like New England in that way, everyone drives fast and aggressive.

    My pet peeve on the highway is when I’m going 75mph and someone flashes me to get by, I move over, and they have their cruise control set at 76mph, so it takes them all day to pass me. If I am going to get boxed in by their slow passing speed, guess what? I jump back out in front of them and we can try it again later. I only have to go 85 or 90 for about 6 or 7 seconds to hold them off ten more minutes and by then someone is on their a5s.

  34. Walking Bye says:

    The worst are NYC drivers out for the summer weekend. they generally have limited experience driving. I remember seeing one such driver come to a stop in the middle lane of the GSP north at the Route West 3 left lane exist. She missed the exit and decided to stop in the middle of the highway and put on her blinker to make a sharp left.

  35. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Blackstone Hires Jonathan Pollack for Real Estate Debt

    Blackstone Group LP, the biggest real estate private equity firm, hired Jonathan Pollack from Deutsche Bank AG to be chief investment officer of its property-debt unit, which oversees almost $10 billion of investor capital.

    Pollack had been global head of Deutsche Bank’s commercial real estate group, where Blackstone was one of his biggest clients. He left Germany’s largest lender last week after 16 years with the company.

    At Blackstone, Pollack will report to Michael Nash, who is in charge of Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies, the New York-based company said in a statement Monday. The debt unit includes the publicly traded Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.

    Pollack “is in our opinion one of the bright, bright lights in our industry,” Nash said in a telephone interview. “He has a lot of overlap with many of the businesses we’ve done on the private lending side,” along with running Deutsche Bank’s commercial mortgage-backed securities operation, the biggest of its kind.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/blackstone-hires-jonathan-pollack-for-real-estate-debt

  36. Libturd in the City says:

    “Ideally the left lane should be empty unless you are passing someone.”

    In the midwest, where almost every highway is 2 lanes max in each direction, I’ve been stuck behind a two-across who are both driving the same speed (almost always the exact speed limit) for like 10 miles straight. It drives you crazy. Especially when there is nothing but daylight ahead of both of them in both lanes.

    I find that most of the left lane huggers in NJ tend to have out of state plates. One truly has to be ignorant to not witness a hundred cars passing you on the right.

    As for my dad’s ticket for slow driving, it was on the Belt Parkway and he had received a speeding ticket earlier that day. He was so concerned about getting another ticket that he was driving intentionally slower than the limit. I guess he didn’t realize how slow he was going. This was a story I heard when I was really young, so I’ll have to ask him about it again as the details are murky.

  37. Essex says:

    According to my calculations the realtor in the transaction to sell my home would pocket about $28k while I would write a check to leave. I took that money and enrolled my kid in a nice private day school. Problem solved.

  38. Ragnar says:

    27, D-Fens
    That story said Bill Clinton didn’t carry a gun, but carried a prayer in his billfold. I’m guessing it was St. Augustine’s famous prayer: “Dear God, please grant me chastity and continence, but not yet”

  39. Libturd in the City says:

    “The worst are NYC drivers out for the summer weekend.”

    I’ve already told my son that if you see a ZipCar, always stay two lanes and four car lengths away.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Mine as well throw in the Middle East and India too. lol..I’m joking around (would never actually support this), but knock out China, India, and the Middle East, and you seriously solve most of the world problems overnight. I’m not trying to rip into these areas, but they really are responsible for most of the world’s misery. China and India combine for over half of the world’s population. Who knows how much pollution they are putting out. They are responsible for most of the low wages in the world along with wasted resources on the creation of crappy pointless products. The middle east with their religious fanaticism is responsible for most of the world’s terrorism and wars. Eliminate these 3 areas and you solve most of the world’s problems.

    grim says:
    June 16, 2015 at 9:02 am
    30 – We could nuke China.

  41. leftwing says:

    “It would seem to me that solving income inequality would start with getting the 2.2 billion up to $8/hour, before the relatively rich Walmart greeters start wetting their beak. Anyone earning $8/hour is obviously not paying their fair share.”

    Doesn’t fit the liberal agenda. The ‘poor’ are useful to furthering their personal goals, if not, eh.

    “According to my calculations the realtor in the transaction to sell my home would pocket about $28k while I would write a check to leave. I took that money and enrolled my kid in a nice private day school. Problem solved.”

    Priceless. Quote of the day.

  42. joyce says:

    18-19
    When you pass someone in the left lane, do you stay at or under the speed limit?

    I’m being facetious of course; I honestly don’t understand the left lane is for passing only (especially 2-3 lane highways) coupled with the fact that you can’t break any other rules in order to pass.

  43. Ragnar says:

    NJ roads are usually too congested to just leave the left lane empty.
    But if you aren’t passing someone at a reasonable speed, move to the right.
    If you’re in the left lane and someone faster is coming up behind you, move to the right, unless you’re about to pass someone else, in which case, speed up.
    If you’re in the left hand lane trying to go 85+, tough luck, you’re driving dangerously, move to Wyoming or Germany.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    lmao…so true!! Don’t forget to teach him about the Asian drivers. I have this thing also with toyota corolla, for some reason people that purchase these cars can’t drive. No idea how many accidents I almost got into with an asian driving a corolla. That’s a killer combo right there, stay clear!!

    Libturd in the City says:
    June 16, 2015 at 9:22 am
    “The worst are NYC drivers out for the summer weekend.”

    I’ve already told my son that if you see a ZipCar, always stay two lanes and four car lengths away.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    According to my calculations the realtor in the transaction to sell my home would pocket about $28k while I would write a check to leave.

    Maddening, simply maddening, is it not?

  46. JJ says:

    My Left Lane issue is folks sometimes don’t Understand the “Right of Way” is built in with the “Star” some folks get it some folks don’t.

    For instance when I had my v8 Mercedes SL any Mercedes that was an E or C class as soon as they see the big Star on my front end indicating an SL class they are to move to the right automatically, same for nearly all GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Chrysler etc.

    But if a faster car than me approached from rear Ferrari, Porsche 911 turbo, Maserati, Corvette I was to move to right as soon as they approached.

    Basic rules of road and if anyone ever drove on an Autobahn in a POS Toyota or Honda or Fiat or even C class you knew damm well you dont get in the left lane.

    Last time I was in Germany we were going 120mph in middle lane and driver said the left was for fast cars. A Italian job then passes us I swear at 150 mph.

    NJ just needs a rule NO JAPANESE CARS in Left Lane and no American Cars except V8 powered muscle cars.

  47. JJ says:

    My realtor told me a big bush can hide an ugly front door. Which is why she never shaves her bush.

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 16, 2015 at 9:27 am
    According to my calculations the realtor in the transaction to sell my home would pocket about $28k while I would write a check to leave.

    Maddening, simply maddening, is it not?

  48. [34] Yep. If you get on the Southbound NJ Turnpike right out of the Lincoln Tunnel on a sunny Saturday or Sunday you’ll inevitably encounter cars with NY plates in the left lane going a steady 55mph, never checking their rear-view mirror. From their midtown frame of reference they are just flying.

    The worst are NYC drivers out for the summer weekend.

  49. Essex says:

    45. It would be, except I’m happy in my current home. Did many upgrades, like the location, and am just used to the place. But yeah overall it doesn’t bode well for the local market where I am.

  50. Essex says:

    47. JJ. Priceless.

  51. [47] What’s the other one? Cold hands, warm front door?

  52. grim says:

    49 – West Orange? What are your taxes?

  53. 30 year realtor says:

    #37 & 45 -There are alternatives. Discount brokers do exist and the flat fee MLS services will save you money as well. Plenty of agents who will get you into MLS, provide professional quality photos, help you negotiate and provide guidance on pricing for only 1% on the sell side. If you offer cooperating brokers 2%, it is a total of 3% commission.

  54. Essex says:

    About $12k. Modest 3/2 split.

  55. anon (the good one) says:

    Poll: Majority of Americans Would Support Jeb Bush Painting
    BY ANDY BOROWITZ

    WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—A new poll released today shows that an overwhelming majority of Americans would support the idea of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush taking up painting.

    According to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, seventy-four per cent of those surveyed “strongly agreed” with the statement:

    “Jeb Bush painting would be a really good thing for the United States and also for the rest of the world.”

    A spokesman for Mr. Bush said that, as of yet, the former governor had made no decision to start painting but would “try to make up his mind by the end of the year” at the latest.

    “Gov. Bush wants to serve his country and if he can best do that by painting, so be it,” the spokesman said.

  56. Essex says:

    Thing is WO is a great town. No kidding.

  57. Libturd in the City says:

    I have friends who live on Maple. West Orange has its charm. It also has the world’s greatest hardware store. Schneiders.

  58. 30 year realtor says:

    The Schneiders are my relatives. Our grandparents were siblings.

  59. 30 year realtor says:

    That store still has inventory in it from when my father was a child and he was born in 1931.

  60. Essex says:

    Definitely – been there since 2002. Longest I’ve lived anywhere. Besides I sincerely like it here.

  61. Prices are getting crazy in Boston. A guy I know who has the exact same unit as me bought in March ’05 for $325K, very close to the top. He lives out of state and rents it and has tried to sell it the last several Springs for a higher price each year. Last Spring I thought he was priced too high at $378K and it didn’t sell. This year it was under contract in a heartbeat. He sold for $397K. That’s 895 square feet, 2 br, 1 bath in a pre-war building with an early 80’s kitchen.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    THE STORY
    Yesterday, an Italian magazine leaked a major announcement on climate change by Pope Francis. Spoiler: he thinks it’s a huge problem.
    WHY IS THIS A BIG DEAL?
    Because Francis is the leader of more than one billion Catholics…and by taking a stance and saying that it’s often the harshest on the world’s poorest, he made global warming a moral and religious issue. The Church now officially sides with scientists who say human activity is the root of the problem. This could anger conservative Catholics , who are sometimes climate change naysayers. Francis has a lot of feelings about this topic – 192-pages worth – that will be released Thursday. Until then, you’ll have to dust off your Italian if you want to read it.
    theSKIMM
    It’s no coincidence that the Church put out this document ahead of a major climate change summit that world leaders are attending later this year. This might be Francis’s most radical move yet, from a pope that’s known for radical moves.

  63. Bystander says:

    “Just by way of comparison, it was about 2 percent at the peak of the housing bubble”

    Bullsh$t. There is no way average dp went to 2%.

  64. Libturd in the City says:

    Am I the only fool who put down 20% during the bubble?

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My wife and I took my daughter to turtle back zoo on Sunday. I like West Orange. Has a lot of history and it has its charm.

    Enjoy the area in general, all the towns around there are nice.

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2015 at 9:52 am
    Thing is WO is a great town. No kidding.

  66. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    The piggy back mortgage is a foreclosure waiting to happen. The lower your dp, the more you are relying on the market to bail you out if you get into trouble which is why these were great products pre-2005. Now, not so much.

    7 Mortgage Loans For Today’s Low- And No-Downpayment Buyers (Updated For 2015)

    FHA Loan (3.5% Down Payment)
    Conventional 97 (3% Down Payment)
    USDA Loan (No Down Payment Required)
    VA Loan (No Down Payment Required)
    Good Neighbor Next Door ($100 Down Payment)
    Home Construction Loan (3.5% Down Payment)
    Piggy-Back Mortgage (10% Down Payment)

    http://themortgagereports.com/17670/7-mortgage-loans-low-no-zero-downpayment-buyers-2015

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    Nothing changed since this so-called “trough” in 2010/2011 other than lenders opening the door a little wider to allow the m0rons to commit financial su1cide yet again.

    “How much is my monthly payment?” Give the whining children what they want just to shut them the f.uck up. Meanwhile, collect the fee and move to the next 1diot. History repeats and with the attention span of the overweight populace, it doesn’t take long.

  68. Juice Box says:

    re # 29 – “Need a euro crash”. Euro Dollar par would be nice….. I’lll be there end of July for a bit, we are having a large family reuninon in a sleeply little village in Ireland. Our group is nearly 90 people all 1st and 2nd cousins, my grandparents raised 9 kids there. It should be a blast if everyone stays for the week and the weather cooperates.

  69. 30 year realtor says:

    I currently have several entry level homes listed that are in renovated condition. Most of the offers coming in have conventional financing with 20% or more down payment.

  70. anon (the good one) says:

    realtors are optional. you elect to pay, no?

    “According to my calculations the realtor in the transaction to sell my home would pocket about $28k.. “

  71. Essex says:

    Personally the idea of handling a real estate transaction, not to mention qualifying buyers and showing the place has zero appeal.

  72. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [69] 30 Year

    Did they sell a home prior or saved up? I would imagine most are not first time buyers.

  73. joyce says:

    there’s not one word on the blacklist and it still won’t post

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    I currently have several entry level homes listed that are in renovated condition.

    Show me the list please.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/official-california-balcony-collapse-kills-5-irish-students-1.1356461

    Juice Box says:
    June 16, 2015 at 10:30 am
    re # 29 – “Need a euro crash”. Euro Dollar par would be nice….. I’lll be there end of July for a bit, we are having a large family reuninon in a sleeply little village in Ireland. Our group is nearly 90 people all 1st and 2nd cousins, my grandparents raised 9 kids there. It should be a blast if everyone stays for the week and the weather cooperates.

  76. anon (the good one) says:

    this is, like, idiot 15 or so?

    @WSJ:

    Breaking:

    Donald Trump launches bid for Republican presidential nomination

  77. Libturd in the City says:

    Trump is trying to stay ahead of Hilary.

  78. Libturd in the City says:

    I’d elect Ivana over Hilary.

    At least she showed some leadership in handling a husband not interested in her anymore.

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    anon,

    this is, like, idiot 15 or so?

    How do you personally benefit in having a president who is a democrat?

  80. grim says:

    75 – Those balconies weren’t cantilevered? How did any of that pass engineering approval?

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You think govt workers have it made, check this out. How in the world did this get passed?

    “It’s one of the sweetest employee perks in the hedge-fund world: a chance to invest in Medallion, the wildly profitable fund created by market legend James Simons.
    Now, with deft legal maneuvers and a blessing from Washington, the firm Simons started is giving its employees an even richer opportunity — a tax-advantaged, fee-free ticket to one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds.
    In a series of unusual moves, Renaissance Technologies abolished its 401(k) plan and won the government’s permission to put pieces of Medallion inside Roth IRAs. That means no taxes — ever — on the future earnings of a fund that averaged a 71.8 percent annual return, before fees, from 1994 through mid-2014.
    The switch — the result of four years of legal work and two waivers from the U.S. Labor Department — could yield an extraordinary payoff for workers at Renaissance, a pioneer in quantitative trading. The loser will be the U.S. Treasury, which stands to miss out on many millions of tax dollars.
    How this turns out depends on Medallion. From 2001 through 2013, the fund’s worst year was a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees. Medallion reaped a 98.2 percent gain in 2008, the year the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 38.5 percent.
    If Medallion repeats that 13-year performance, a $300,000 taxable investment would turn into $4.7 million. A Roth IRA funded with $300,000 would be worth $26.3 million — and a no-fee version would be even bigger.
    ‘Quite Amazing’
    “It’s quite amazing,” said Steve Rosenthal, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington. “They’re very tax-savvy.”
    Jonathan Gasthalter, a spokesman for Renaissance, declined to comment.
    Simons, the firm’s chairman, is no longer the day-to-day manager. The 77-year-old has a net worth of $15.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Medallion is almost entirely owned by Renaissance’s employees, their families and a few former employees.
    It took Renaissance several years to push the changes through. Public filings tell the story.
    First, in 2010, the East Setauket, New York-based firm terminated its 401(k) plan — itself a rare step. That shifted employees’ account balances into IRAs.
    The timing was no coincidence. That year, the government ended a policy preventing people earning more than $100,000 a year from converting standard IRAs into Roth IRAs by paying taxes. With standard IRAs, people invest pretax dollars and withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Roth IRAs, by contrast, are funded with after-tax dollars and investment gains are tax-free.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/how-an-exclusive-hedge-fund-turbocharged-retirement-plan

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    82- Exactly, someone else has to make up for those tax savings. That’s you and me.

    “The issue is tax fairness,” said Bill Parish, an investment adviser in Portland, Oregon who has written on his blog about Renaissance. “To the extent that they’re eliminating taxes by stuffing deals in their retirement accounts, the rest of us end up paying more.”

  83. xolepa says:

    Expat,
    Did my son and DIL overpay? They bought a 1500sqft 3/2 backing to permanently preserved land in Quincy right on Milton border. Closed this spring.

    The house needed work, mostly updates. Has solid bones. Two suckers have been working on it since May, myself and FIL.

    Have to admit its quiet and easily accessible to everything.

  84. 1987 Condo says:

    This house finally went on market..oh, I am thinking about $150,000 too high?
    Neighbor passed away and house sold, in a bidding war?! for $290,000 in December 2013. Pristine 1959 untouched condition! Flippers did nothing for a year. Finally on market June 2015.

    I would have bought for $190k, maybe $50-$100k reno and sold for $350….?

    http://www.coldwellbankermoves.com/property/details/4826400/MLS-3231201/36-Old-Orchard-Ct-Cedar-Grove-NJ-07009.aspx?SearchID=47892033&RowNum=1&StateID=36&RegionID=0&IsRegularPS=True&IsSold=False

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, so far you are dead on with your prediction. Not going up anytime soon. I was way off. They are flooding the hell out of the market.

    “Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were to keep pumping at current rates it would become the longest surplus since at least 1985 by the third quarter, the data show.
    There are few signs the 12-nation group will cut back. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, will probably increase production to intensify pressure on U.S. shale drillers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts. OPEC’s supplies may be swollen further this year if Iran reaches a deal with world powers to ease sanctions on its exports, Commerzbank AG says.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/longest-oil-glut-in-decades-looms-as-opec-pumps-up-market-share

  86. xolepa says:

    Expat, price was low 4s

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tell the flippers to dream on. lol

    1987 Condo says:
    June 16, 2015 at 12:05 pm
    This house finally went on market..oh, I am thinking about $150,000 too high?
    Neighbor passed away and house sold, in a bidding war?! for $290,000 in December 2013. Pristine 1959 untouched condition! Flippers did nothing for a year. Finally on market June 2015.

    I would have bought for $190k, maybe $50-$100k reno and sold for $350….?

    http://www.coldwellbankermoves.com/property/details/4826400/MLS-3231201/36-Old-Orchard-Ct-Cedar-Grove-NJ-07009.aspx?SearchID=47892033&RowNum=1&StateID=36&RegionID=0&IsRegularPS=True&IsSold=False

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week to discuss the path of monetary policy.
    Any possibility of a rate hike at the meeting’s conclusion on Wednesday was already crushed under the weight of weak data early in the year. To be sure, the data support the transitory nature of the weakness, justifying Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s optimism last month, but it remains too little, too late. Instead, turn to September as the next opportunity for the first rate hike of this cycle.
    Yellen established her view on the first-quarter data in a May speech:
    If confirmed by further estimates, my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time, including the unusually cold and snowy winter and the labor disputes at ports on the West Coast, both of which likely disrupted some economic activity. And some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. I therefore expect the economic data to strengthen.
    Recent data suggest Yellen was correct to trust her instincts. Job growth remains steady, with solid reports for both April and May and even tantalizing hints that wage growth is accelerating:”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/janet-yellen-s-prediction-last-month-is-already-being-vindicated

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    90- A lot of data presented in the article. Def check it out. My wage inflation prediction in 2017/2018 is looking pretty strong based on the data found in this article.

  90. joyce says:

    $44k Rx … less than $200 over the counter

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “As President Xi Jinping’s “Silk Road” program of trade routes gets under way, with infrastructure projects planned across Central Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Middle East to Europe, China’s footprint abroad will expand from the $108 billion that firms invested abroad in 2013, up from less than $3 billion a decade earlier.
    That is forcing China to take a more proactive approach to securing its interests and the safety of its people. With more engagement abroad there’s a risk that China, an emerging power with a military to match, is sucked into conflicts and runs up against the U.S. when tensions are already flaring over China’s disputed claims in the South China Sea.
    “It is going to be a long, hard haul,” said Kerry Brown, director of the University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre. “You either have disruption as a new power rips up the rule book and causes bedlam or you’ve got a gradual transition where China is ceded more space but also expected to have more responsibility.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-15/five-million-reasons-china-may-be-drawn-into-foreign-conflicts

  92. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    WOW. According to team over at fivethirtyeight, Donald Trump has a significantly lower favorability rating than Al Sharpton did in 2003. Might as well bring in Nailin Palin at this point.

    Why Donald Trump Isn’t a Real Candidate in One Chart

    A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle.1 Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.

    Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/

  93. Anon E. Moose says:

    Tool [76];

    The only people who take Trump seriously are fools and tools like yourself.

  94. Jason says:

    FDA mandates food manufacturers phase out trans-fat in 3 years.

    Hardly a peep from the sheeple. Big Brother decides what we eat, not consumers.

    We’re now one step closer to a couple scoops of rabbit pellets a day for everybody.

    Baah, baah

  95. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [82] Pumpkin

    One of the best black box HFs out there. Extremely savvy guys over there. With their returns, I would have taken a second mortgage and invested.

  96. Juice Box says:

    re: # 82- “How in the world did this get passed?”

    It wasn’t passed.

    Two waivers from the U.S. Labor Department.

  97. Speakeasy says:

    Does anyone have a good insurance agent/firm they can recommend? My agency that I have used for ~10 years is looking to move my auto/home to another insurer again – they seem to do this every 2-3 years it seems – so I thought it may be a good time to take a look around to see what’s out there and if my premiums are competitive. I hardly have contact with my current agent anyway – perhaps a handful over the past 10 years.

    First, is it common for agencies to switch insurers every couple of years or so? I have a feeling it may have to do something with their commission payout structure. Second, is it better to go through an agent than direct to an insurer (i.e. Progressive, Farmers, Amica, etc.)? (i.e. is the less of a hassle factor through an agent worth the potential savings working with several insurers directly?) Finally, will homeowner coverage with a new insurer require going through an appraisal? (Not that I should run into any issues with an appraisal – I had one done ~3 years ago for the current insurer – just the hassle of having to deal with one.) My agency is pushing Hanover to the clients and said it does not require a new appraisal. Any one have experience with Hanover? I remember I was with Hanover (for auto) several years ago (same agent) but don’t have any real experience other than paying the premiums.

  98. Libturd in the City says:

    I have no clue why anyone uses an agent. I find them more trouble than they are worth. I’ve talked about this before here. Take your current policy, scan it. Go into Paint/Photoshop and lasso delete all of the prices. Then email the blank form to 30 insurers. Never give them your phone or regular email address. Do this every three years. There is reverse loyalty with insurers. They will raise your prices over time with no justification. New insurers see the same claim records as your current insurer. Just make sure you are comparing apples to apples. There’s also no such thing as a multi policy discount. Everything is a gimmick. Just go directly to them. Almost all have great online sites which make it really convenient. I never needed a full appraisal either. Someone on occasion measures the property with the wheel. That’s it. Your car(s) might require a 1-minute inspection at a local gas station.

    Here’s a good starting point.

    Thank me later.

    http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_consumers/insurance/autopremiumcomparison.htm

  99. Ragnar says:

    Speakeasy,
    New Jersey Manufacturers, if you have a way in, has been quite good for me. Got in when my wife worked for Lucent about 15 yrs ago, have never left them.

  100. Libturd in the City says:

    I heard that Rags. I could never get in. Of course TIAA CREF is another great one, but you must be military.

  101. Speakeasy says:

    102 – Lib,
    Thanks for the info. You are always such a repository of good information! A MacGyver type of sorts. Indeed, good advice…I wish I was motivated as you are…. I will see if I can make my lazy a$$ to do a 1/10 of what you do! Which probably means I’d end up using an agent. A few top direct insurers you would recommend I look into?

    103 – Ragnar,
    Wish I was eligible for NJM! Tried to a few years ago. USAA too!

  102. ccb223 says:

    People should be able to put their 401K savings where ever the effe they want. Period. Don’t see an issue at all.

  103. Libturd in the City says:

    My car is currently with Geico and the home with Tower (scary I know). But I’ve never had a car insurance claim in my life and home, just Sandy and that was minor. All State was good for a while for car. Really, since I have so few claims, I just blanket fax/email about 20 of them and the lowest price wins.

  104. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    You mean USAA……TIAA-CREF is for academic institutions…..

    Libturd in the City says:
    June 16, 2015 at 1:32 pm
    I heard that Rags. I could never get in. Of course TIAA CREF is another great one, but you must be military.

  105. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    NJM is also for people with clean records….

  106. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    meaning IN ADDITION to needing a sponsoring employer, you also need one….

  107. Libturd in the City says:

    Thanks Chai latte… I mixed them up.

  108. D-FENS says:

    @esjay_h: “I will be the greatest jobs president God ever created”@realDonaldTrump said – http://t.co/2uMRnaXWp7 #DonaldTrumpforPresident #USElections

  109. xolepa says:

    I, too, have NJM, about 30 years now. All I did was use my self-employed business back then to join the NJ Industry/Business Assn. Sent my first check to that org, got my number and then signed up with NJM. They had a policy of never surcharging for tickets or accidents until your quota was full. Then, they would cut you off.
    Either way, I was told several weeks ago by one of their reps that they have changed their policy and will look back 1 year on your record and charge accordingly. Pisses me off, as my daughter has a speeding ticket and a small bumper banger (her fault) within past few months.

  110. JJ says:

    http://prospectus.bondtraderpro.com/$800239.PDF

    Chifi I am thinking of buying Sandwich bonds. They look tasty. I love the name of the attached bond offering

  111. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    I was in Ipswich about 20 years ago with my friend from Brooklyn whose family is from Trinidad. We were sitting in a car at a stoplight with our windows down when a guy makes a left turn into our street. He stops and rolls down his window and says to me “don’t you think your friend had been spending too much time in the midday sun.” Then calmly rolled up his window and drove away……

    JJ says:
    June 16, 2015 at 3:16 pm

    Chifi I am thinking of buying Sandwich bonds. They look tasty. I love the name of the attached bond offering

  112. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Move along, nothing to see here. It’s all perfectly legal way of lower your tax obligations. Like moving to Delaware or Utah.

    HSBC, JPMorgan may move parts of businesses to Luxembourg: The Times

    HSBC is understood to have told the UK Treasury that it was considering moving its headquarters to Luxembourg from London, and the discussions with officials are part of the its domicile review announced in April, the Times reported.

    Shareholders had in April urged HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, to consider moving its headquarters to Asia due to a hefty UK bank tax and other costs associated with being based in London.

    Reuters had reported in March that Asia-focused banks Standard Chartered and HSBC could be tempted to abandon their London headquarters to avoid a jump in the UK bank tax set to cost them a combined $2 billion a year.

    More than 300 companies, including PepsiCo Inc (PEP.N), AIG Inc (AIG.N) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), secured secret deals from Luxembourg to slash their tax bills, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) reported last year, quoting leaked documents.

    The leaked documents reviewed by ICIJ journalists included hundreds of private tax rulings – known as comfort letters – that Luxembourg provided to corporations seeking favorable tax treatment.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/us-britain-banks-hsbc-jpmorgan-idUSKBN0OW0A420150616

  113. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    I refer to that town as Chipwich, and Sandwich is basically one big summer traffic jam a la Shinnec0ck….

  114. Speakeasy says:

    107 – Lib,
    Sorry to be obtuse…. So, if I wanted blanket email some of these direct model insurers, how does one go about doing something like this? I just looked at GEICO and Amica for instance and there isn’t a generic email where one can email these things. Rather, when you click on the “Get A QUote” button or alike, you have to go through a series of questions, page by page. Otherwise you have to call the 800 number. Are you suggesting we call the 800# to obtain a CSR’s (or generic) email to send the information to? Also, sorry again to ask what is an obvious question – in order to obtain a relatively accurate and a “firm” quote they would stand behind – this blast to insurers would show your name, address, DOB, license #, etc. correct? Can one do this (initially at least for the preliminary) with the personal info deleted and on a more generic basis (i.e. age; name of town; no accidents/tickets; and all other relevant info that they would need in deriving a quote)? I think I already know but thought I’d run it by. Thanks again.

  115. Speakeasy says:

    On a different matter…. My landscaper wants to hit me up for an additional $200+ for another add-on service (he sends out about a half dozen or so each season in addition to all the other services I am already signed up for) – tick spray. They are going to use scimitar. So I decided to look it up on Amazon and see that Talstar comes recommended. Anyone have experience with this? More importantly, do I even need to do this? AM I getting caught up scare marketing? I don’t think have or heard of much of a tick problem in our area nor have much in trees or dead leaves near the house. Plus, I did the Ortho Home Defense indoor/outdoor in spring FWIW. ANd, if I go Talstar, would you suggest donning a respirator goggle/mask? Or am I just going to scare my neighbors for no reason.

  116. Essex says:

    65. Exactly. Location is fantastic. I love the geography of the place too. And it is a helluva lot cheaper than Montclair which is where we initially looked. I happen to really like the “buzz” of this area. Being close to the reservation and to Montclair is nice. Access to the City is great and you can be into the NYC pretty quickly if the traffic is running.

  117. xolepa says:

    Ticks get blown in by wind. Do you want nasty
    poison on your lawn? I won’t even put grub killer on my lawn, even though it will cut down on the moles.

  118. homeboken says:

    Anyone that considers a purchase in West Orange should spend 5 minutes looking up the property tax bill/history. Far and away the absolute worst taxed muni in the area. I’ve seen 3br 2ba splits that haven’t been touched in 30 years that carry 25,000/yr tax bills.

    The colloquial phrase “West Orange Line” was not borne out of nowhere

  119. Essex says:

    123. No doubt about it. But that figure is a bit high. As I said, I’m at $12k and very typical for the area. Yes, there are higher taxed homes and yes the rate has increased, but the price of entry is actually affordable and you get a lot of house.

  120. homeboken says:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/75-Glen-Ave_West-Orange_NJ_07052_M67816-15993?row=1&ex=NJ591265910

    A nice Lewellen listing – Huge house, 7400sqft, 2.3 acres.

    87,000/yr in taxes. Do you get to become Mayor if you buy the house? Who the hell consumes 87.000 per year in municipal services? And don’t even try the school argument. Nobody in this neighborhood sends their kid to West Orange HS.

  121. homeboken says:

    Essex – I do like the area a lot and the commute to NYC is very digestable with train, bus and 280 driving options.

    But I have yet to see an acceptable home that didn’t have a tax bill that scare the hell out of me. Especially when I consider I have to send my kids to private HS. For the annual tax rate, West Orange HS should be the shiniest blue ribbon school out there and it just is not.

    I am only one buyer, so grain of salt – many factors of West Orange are appealing – but the property tax bills force me to completely eliminate that town from my search.

  122. leftwing says:

    Basic economic law. As unbendable as the laws of physic:

    Tax something, you get less of it. Subsidize something, you get more of it.

    London’s bad, good for Luxembourg.

    “Move along, nothing to see here. It’s all perfectly legal way of lower your tax obligations. Like moving to Delaware or Utah.
    HSBC, JPMorgan may move parts of businesses to Luxembourg: The Times”

  123. Ragnar says:

    Homeboken. Assuming that $89k/yr tax increases 2% per year, and you apply a 5% discount rate, that property tax stream is worth $2.9m today. (Single stage dividend discount model) The house is listed at $2.2m. Let’s assume it sells for $2.1. This would suggest the sucker buying that house is really taking on $5m of combined liability. One could think of this way- West Orange has already seized 58% of the total value of this property!
    This is why I say nobody in NJ really owns their home. They just pay for the privilege of renting their home from government.

  124. POS cape says:

    107

    I have Plymouth Rock. I don’t know how competitive they are cost wise, but I’m afraid to look elsewhere as the few times I’ve called them, the phone is picked up immediately, and by someone with un-accented English.

  125. jcer says:

    Llewellyn park should secede from WO, all that tax money and they don’t even get schools worth going to. Beautiful area that I find very appealing but between truly ludicrous taxes and a school system I can not reasonably send my kinds to…..I’d need to give myself a lobotomy before considering buying there.

  126. stu (64)-

    Nope. Me too. Would’ve had more enjoyment had I put a blowtorch to a giant stack of Benjamins.

    Then again, I am not homeless now.

    “Am I the only fool who put down 20% during the bubble?”

  127. D-FENS says:

    @Mark_J_Perry: Hillary preaches about economic opportunity and $15 wage, yet she’s “hiring” unpaid summer interns for $0.00 per hour http://t.co/Spu68VLNth

  128. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    A little something for Joyce. And I will weigh in on this later.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dos1bm_tU_k

  129. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [132] DFENS

    Obama admin cracked down somewhat on interns; there are regs about what they can/can’t do, and employers who for years used them as unpaid labor started getting looked at funny.

    It would be hysterical if an intern came out with selfie videos of all the intern-gopher shite they do, and someone pointed out how it violated 8 different regulations.

  130. Wily Millenial says:

    > 87,000/yr in taxes. Do you get to become Mayor if you buy the house? Who the hell consumes 87.000 per year in municipal services?

    2.3 acres of what would otherwise be urban land. If WO can charge $12K for a 3/2 on a 50′ lot the imputed tax value of that land to the town is like $240k/yr improved, so like $120k before development. If anything the homeowner is getting a sweet deal.

    If LP incorporated they’d probably raise taxes even more. (And set up an s-r relationship with Livingston HS…)

  131. Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:

    A little something else for Joyce, and for anyone who has to go to Elizabeth

    http://unionnewsdaily.com/news/elizabeth/19059

  132. Juice Box says:

    Re: 132 -My coworkers son who is in the midst of this has decided to take a job in Asia teaching English instead. Free room and board plus salary, he figured he can pay off his student loans this way. As a gov worker he says he is fed up with volunteering on campaigns, they apparently give DC staff comp time to work on campaigns ,wink wink nod nod.

  133. Juice Box says:

    Re: 137 – did a stint as a bartender. Who do you think the regulars were?

  134. Juice Box says:

    Got a flyer from the latest crop of Mormon kids last weekend. I was not home for it this year. Last year was a different story I am surprised they don’t keep a list of who’s door NOT to knock on.

  135. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oxford, Britain — One thing we’ve learned in the years since the financial crisis is that seriously bad ideas — by which I mean bad ideas that appeal to the prejudices of Very Serious People — have remarkable staying power. No matter how much contrary evidence comes in, no matter how often and how badly predictions based on those ideas are proved wrong, the bad ideas just keep coming back. And they retain the power to warp policy.

    What makes something qualify as a seriously bad idea? In general, to sound serious it must invoke big causes to explain big events — technical matters, like the troubles caused by sharing a currency without a common budget, don’t make the cut. It must also absolve corporate interests and the wealthy from responsibility for what went wrong, and call for hard choices and sacrifice on the part of the little people.

    Paul Krugman
    Macroeconomics, trade, health care, social policy and politics.
    Democrats Being Democrats JUN 15
    Fighting the Derp JUN 8
    Lone Star Stumble JUN 5
    That 1914 Feeling JUN 1
    The Insecure American MAY 29
    See More »

    So the true story of economic disaster, which is that it was caused by an inadequately regulated financial industry run wild and perpetuated by wrongheaded austerity policies, won’t do. Instead, the story must involve things like a skills gap — it’s not lack of jobs; we have the wrong workers for this high-technology globalized era, etc., etc. — even if there’s no evidence at all that such a gap is impeding recovery.

    And the ultimate example of a seriously bad idea is the determination, in the teeth of all the evidence, to declare government spending that helps the less fortunate a crucial cause of our economic problems. In the United States, I’m happy to say, this idea seems to be on the ropes, at least for now. Here in Britain, however, it still reigns supreme. In particular, one important factor in the recent Conservative election triumph was the way Britain’s news media told voters, again and again, that excessive government spending under Labour caused the financial crisis.

    It takes almost no homework to show that this claim is absurd on multiple levels. For one thing, the financial crisis was global; did Gordon Brown’s alleged overspending cause the housing busts in Florida and Spain? For another, all these claims of irresponsibility involve rewriting history, because on the eve of crisis nobody thought Britain was being profligate: debt was low by historical standards and the deficit fairly small. Finally, Britain’s supposedly disastrous fiscal position has never worried the markets, which have remained happy to buy British bonds despite historically low yields.

    Nonetheless, that’s the story, generally reported not as opinion but as fact. And the really bad news is that Britain’s leaders seem to believe their own propaganda. On Wednesday, George Osborne, the chancellor of the Exchequer and the architect of the government’s austerity policies, announced his intention to make these policies permanent. Britain, he said, should have a law requiring that the government run a budget surplus — with current revenue paying for all spending, including investment outlays — when the economy is growing.

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    It’s a remarkable proposal, and I mean that in the worst way. Mr. Osborne isn’t offering the wrong answer to Britain’s problems; he’s offering an answer to problems Britain doesn’t have, while ignoring and exacerbating the problems it does.

    For Britain does not have a public debt problem. Yes, debt rose in the wake of economic crisis, but it’s still not high by historical standards, and borrowing costs have rarely been lower. In fact, interest rates adjusted for inflation are negative, even on very long-term borrowing. Investors, in other words, are willing to pay the British government to make use of part of their wealth.

    Continue reading the main story
    RECENT COMMENTS

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    Meanwhile, Britain’s real economy is still ailing. It’s true that employment has held up surprisingly well, but that’s only because of a spectacular, unprecedented productivity bust: adjusting for labor quality, output per person-hour has declined around 7 percent since early 2008.

    Nobody fully understands either why this slump has happened or how to reverse it, but surely the combination of a still-weak economy, terrible productivity performance and negative borrowing costs says that this is a time to increase investment in things like infrastructure. (Passenger trains here make rail service in the United States look good, and traffic congestion is getting ever worse.) Yet the Osborne proposal would kill any such initiative.

    But Mr. Osborne sounds very serious, and, if history is any guide, the Labour Party won’t make any effective counterarguments.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/12/opinion/paul-krugman-seriously-bad-ideas.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman&_r=1

  136. The Great Pumpkin says:

    141-

    “Dr. Krugman has written many times on “zombie” ideas that wont die despite empirical evidence that discredits them. While I do not discount the impact of new media, Republican party etc… my question is why these idea “feel” correct to so many people. I think that it is hard not to discount the way that anecdotal examples of government waste or individuals who abuse the system can make people more willing to accept the narrative that government spending is to blame for economic woes.”

  137. Ragnar says:

    Keynesianism is the ultimate zombie idea. Never worked, never will work, advocates always say failure was due to not doing it even more.

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    Rights for me but not for thee:

    “Before the Supreme Court, the Obama administration took a firm position and relied heavily on two Cold-War-era decisions that immigration law professors love to hate: Knauff v. Shaughnessy (1950); in which the Court held that the non-citizen wife of a U.S. citizen could be denied admission based on secret evidence, and Shaughnessy v. United States ex rel. Mezei (1953), in which the Court refused, based on secret evidence, to allow a long-term U.S. resident to return to the United States after a trip abroad to visit a dying relative, even when the resident faced the prospect of indefinite detention because his native country would not accept his return. Seeking to limit Kleindienst to its facts, the U.S. government argued that it possessed absolute authority to exclude non-citizens from the country and that there therefore is no right to judicial review of visa denials by consular officers.”

    In other words, we don’t want to create any new rights. Unless its for our kind of people.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “What you have in Britain is a religion, a moral truth. What you don’t have is someone saying that we have a model that is a imperfect representation of the “thing” (economy) and within this context, here is the prescript!on, but it will change, because the economy will change and we will have to modify our models.”

  140. Noreen says:

    There is noticeably a bundle to find out about this. I assume you made sure good points in options also.

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