Housing and credit data continuing to improve

From National Mortgage Professional:

New Data Finds Negative Equity and Consumer Debt Declining

The latest CoreLogic study on negative equity found 254,000 properties regained equity in the first quarter, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of the quarter to 90 percent of all mortgaged properties. On a national level, CoreLogic found borrower equity increased year over year by $694 billion in the first quarter.

The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity is now placed at 5.1 million, or 10.2 percent of all mortgaged properties. This is down from 5.4 million homes, or 10.8 percent, that had negative equity in the fourth quarter of 2014 and down from 6.3 million homes, or 12.9 percent, reported in the first quarter of last year.

Texas had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in positive equity at 97.7 percent, followed by Hawaii (96.9 percent), Alaska (96.8 percent), Montana (96.8 percent) and North Dakota (96.2 percent). On the flip side, Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgaged residential properties in negative equity at 23.1 percent, followed by Florida (21.2 percent), Illinois (16.8 percent), Arizona (16.8 percent) and Rhode Island (15.7 percent). Combined, these five states accounted for 31.4 percent of U.S. negative equity.

“Many homeowners are emerging from the negative equity trap, which bodes well for a continued recovery in the housing market,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With the economy improving and homeowners building equity, albeit slowly, the potential exists for an increase in housing stock available for sale, which would ease the current imbalance in supply and demand.”

Separately, the latest S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices reported historical lows for four of the five national indices. The composite index posted its second consecutive historical low of 0.88 percent in May, a decrease of nine basis points, while the first mortgage default rate was down nine basis points to 0.74 percent and the second mortgage default rate down one basis point to 0.42 percent. The auto loan default rate also reported a historical low of 0.86 percent, a decrease of eight basis points. While not a historic low, the bank card default rate reported its first decrease since January 2015 with a rate of 2.98 percent with a drop of 20 basis points, its largest reported decline since October 2013.

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, presented the data as evidence of a recovering environment for homeownership.

“These figures are another indication that housing is recovering,” he said. “Moreover, other data on financial difficulties confirm that foreclosures are declining and consumers’ capability and willingness to borrow are improving.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

139 Responses to Housing and credit data continuing to improve

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Juice Box says:

    Time to load up on a HELOC and put an addition on the double wide?

  3. grim says:

    Triple-wide = Redneck McMansion?

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Waiting for train, trying to type on cellphone. These articles make me howl! Improving market? You bury a few rotting carcasses and calculate a new number? Bloomberg this morning said the unqualified sellers outnumber the qualified buyers. Gimme a f.ucking break. If I’m begging to write a check and no one is displaying product, what does that tell you. If everything is so rosey, why are rates at zero?

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Powerful comment that hits at the head of my belief in economics. The economy is based on irrational behavior. Therefore, using one economic model is suicide. You must analyze the problems, address them, and await the next problem (some problems will be created from the very medicine you used to solved the previous problem). It will never be perfect, it will be a constant battle, but this is what it takes to have an economy that does not produce total misery and hardship with enormous boom and busts.

    “What you have in Britain is a religion, a moral truth. What you don’t have is someone saying that we have a model that is a imperfect representation of the “thing” (economy) and within this context, here is the prescript!on, but it will change, because the economy will change and we will have to modify our models.”

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So long to free money?

    “The longest drumroll in the 102-year history of the Federal Reserve precedes its next interest-rate increase. That doesn’t mean some of its effects won’t be surprising.
    “This is a major inflection point,” said Erik Davidson, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo & Co.’s private bank. “The end of free money is in sight.”
    The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. It’s expected to push the “liftoff” of interest rates till at least September. In preparation, here are some expected winners and losers and those whose fortunes are likely to stay steady after the Fed and its chair, Janet Yellen, raise the benchmark rate for the first time since 2006:
    WIN: The greenback
    The U.S. dollar will keep rallying after the rate increase, said Daniel Tenegauzer, head of emerging market and global foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York. Other central banks are cutting rates and expanding the money supply, weighing down their currencies.
    “The Fed hikes, the dollar appreciates,” Tenegauzer said.
    LOSE: Federal budget
    The U.S. government could pay as much as $2.9 trillion more in interest over the next 10 years if rates slowly escalate, according to calculations by the Congressional Budget Office and Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.
    DRAW: Savers
    What Christopher Whalen, senior managing director at Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc., called the “huge wealth transfer from savers to debtors” over the last six-plus years of near-zero rates will probably continue. Returns on money market funds, longtime havens for retirees and others on fixed incomes, have cratered to near-zero from 4.79 percent in October 2007, before the financial crisis, according to Crane Data LLC. Savers will likely be the last to benefit from higher rates.

    WIN: Global stocks
    A stronger dollar from the rate increase will boost U.S. demand for products from Asia and Europe, helping lift corporate profits in those regions. The U.S. stock market will still be able to eke out more gains, said Matthew Whitbread, who helps manage $11 billion for Barings Asset Management. Banks will benefit because they’ll be able to profit more from making loans, he said.
    LOSE: Corporate borrowers
    Companies have been borrowing like crazy the past few months as if trying to get their last loans and bonds secured before the rate increase. That’s made it easier for them to buy back shares and pay dividends — things that make them look more attractive to investors. All that’s poised to end, said Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York.
    “There are a lot of pressures on management to lever up to improve returns,” Peabody said. “It will be a problem if interest rates go up.”
    DRAW: Mortgage rates
    The Fed is signaling that it’ll move cautiously once it raises rates. That could help limit any upward push on longer-term Treasury yields, said Priya Misra, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. In turn, that will keep mortgage rates from rising rapidly.

    WIN: Insurance companies
    Since they invest customers’ premiums with the aim of being able to cover losses with the profits, insurance companies hate the zero-interest-rate policy, or ZIRP. U.S. property-casualty insurers are earning an average annualized yield of 3.1 percent on investments, the lowest in half a century.
    That will improve, albeit slowly, as the Fed raises rates, said Douglas Meyer, an analyst at Fitch Ratings.
    “It’ll have an impact over time, a favorable impact on earnings across virtually every product line,” Meyer said.
    LOSE: Emerging-market economies
    Brazil, Turkey and South Africa will likely have a tough time in the second half of 2015 because money will flow toward the U.S., said Stephen L. Jen, managing partner and co-founder of SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London.
    “Already, the currency markets are again showing signs of stress and I feel that there will be moments later this year that investors will smell panic in these markets,” Jen said.
    DRAW: Commodity prices
    Boom and bust cycles in commodities are decades in the making, so a rate increase would have little effect on recent price declines, said Robert Stimpson, a fund manager at Oak Associates Ltd. in Akron, Ohio, which manages about $900 million.
    In other words, don’t blame Yellen.
    WIN: The Fed
    A rate increase means the U.S. economy has improved — a mission accomplished for the most powerful financial institution in the world.
    “They’ve been given a job to do and a rate hike is a sign that at long last there’s material progress in the business cycle,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey.
    LOSE: The Fed
    With a “ceremonial rate rise” coming and the end of its bond-buying program, the Fed has emptied most of the bullets from its figurative gun and won’t have the ammunition to lift the economy if there’s another downturn, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner of Westwood Capital LLC.
    Likewise, raising rates and then having to cut them again would be the Fed’s “nightmare scenario” and it will do its best to avoid that, said Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. economist for Societe Generale SA.
    DRAW: The Fed
    Jon Mackay, senior markets strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the Fed has already begun tightening credit — by reducing the bond-buying stimulus known as quantitative easing.
    “We’re 18 months into the tightening process,” Mackay told Bloomberg TV. “We’re in the middle stages.”
    Mackay struck a note of relief: The rise could be a good thing for the economy and for the markets, he said, “versus all this nervousness around when is Yellen going to hike and what color sweater is she wearing today.””

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/who-wins-who-loses-when-fed-raises-rates

  7. grim says:

    I strongly believe that rate increases will be beneficial for the US economy, not a negative.

  8. anon (the good one) says:

    Fundamentalists

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 17, 2015 at 8:09 am

    “What you have in Britain is a religion, a moral truth. What you don’t have is someone saying that we have a model that is a imperfect representation of the “thing” (economy) and within this context, here is the prescript!on, but it will change, because the economy will change and we will have to modify our models.”

  9. anon (the good one) says:

    agree

    grim says:
    June 17, 2015 at 8:33 am
    I strongly believe that rate increases will be beneficial for the US economy, not a negative.

  10. anon (the good one) says:

    will be a negative for Gary. now truly priced out forever

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think so too.

    I also believe the housing market prices will rise with higher rates due to the demand that comes with an improving job market. Don’t agree at all with anyone advocating a drop in price with a rise in rates.

    grim says:
    June 17, 2015 at 8:33 am
    I strongly believe that rate increases will be beneficial for the US economy, not a negative.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:

    [7] grim

    A rate increase is an effect, not a cause, of an improving economy. And like a tax, I don’t feel it can help in any meaningful way, but it can hurt. If the patient is strong enough, it will cause no discernible drag.

  13. Ragnar says:

    7, grim,
    I strongly believe that interest rates determined by the market for credit (i.e. lenders and borrowers), rather than central planners and their state-run and/or state-guaranteed lackeys, would be good for the US economy.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    anon (the good one),

    On the contrary, I’m begging for rates to rise. I want the pretenders out of the way. Let rates rise and knock the gamblers off the cliff. How can I be priced out forever when there’s nothing to buy? I have a checkbook open and no one is showing me anything. I have ten f.ucking house guides who swear up and down they’re going to find me a house and I keep checking my inbox day after day. What does that tell you?

  15. grim says:

    13 – Unicorns?

  16. 1987 Condo says:

    #14..I thought you gave up on the chase? Why do you want to increase your exposure to this state?

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    1987 Condo,

    I did give up the chase. I’m taunting someone to entice me with a house that’s going to rattle my emotions. It’s not happening and I’m really not actively looking. I’m not chasing it but my option is open if someone happens to present something. It’s been years with no inventory now and nothing will change anytime soon.

  18. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    grim: rate increases to what?……long term they should be Fed Funds 3-4% area and The Ten in the 6% area…..everything else is supposed to be stimulative….kind of puts things in perspective…..

    Ragnar says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:02 am
    7, grim,
    I strongly believe that interest rates determined by the market for credit (i.e. lenders and borrowers), rather than central planners and their state-run and/or state-guaranteed lackeys, would be good for the US economy.

  19. grim says:

    Fed funds.

  20. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    to what LEVEL?

  21. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    or anything at all…..

  22. Libturd in Union says:

    I want to understand how wage growth is going to occur when companies can’t borrow at 0% to pay dividends, or juice eps. Of course if you believe Krugman, rates should be negative. Heck, print money in perpetuity. Rebuild the infrastructure of your entire country. Just make sure you ignore the impact that non-stop stimulus has on those who actually have wealth.

  23. Libturd in Union says:

    As for the insurance questions yesterday, I came across this article today which echoed my strategy to the T. I swear the writer was reading this blog yesterday.

    http://www.mymoneyblog.com/big-data-comparison-shopping.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mymoneyblog+%28My+Money+Blog%29

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume, Land Snark says:

    As long as we don’t experience a taper tantrum, I am looking forward to a moderate rate rise. A blow off in equities would suggest a lack of conviction in the fundamntals.

    However, insofar as fundamentals seem to be in question, it remains to be seen if there will be a rate hike. At this point, the Fed has to hike—if they delay further, it will be taken as a sign that the economy is still fundamentally weak, and that equities are being shored up only by the Fed. So, IMHO, you could see the opposite of a taper tantrum: Equities blow off because the Fed DIDN’T hike rates when expected.

    Just my 0.02.

  25. 1987 Condo says:

    #22..isn’t the Prime at 3.25%? No one is really borrowing at 0%, right?

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume, Land Snark says:

    [23] libturd,

    Wow. Your post and this article are two sides of the same coin.

    And since I have been more inert than I’d like to be, perhaps its time I shook some things up to get that lower inertia rating. Time to kick Verizon in the butt, then shop my insurance.

  27. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    7 deadly sins motif sounds like a winner.

    Addicted to Caffeine, Love Drones, Scared of Ebola? There’s a Motif for that!

    Motif Investing is a company that gives investors a low-cost way of creating their own portfolios or motifs – disrupting the traditional broker model. The company has JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) as backers and cracked CNBC’s 2014 Disruptor 50, coming in at number 4.

    Motif allows investors to create their own fund by selecting up to 30 stocks or ETFs based around a theme or an idea. Some of the Motifs available include “Caffeine Fix“ (coffee stocks), “Modern Warfare” which focuses on companies that make smart bombs and drones and “7 Deadly Sins” which includes fast-food companies, cigarette makers and gun manufacturers. The most recent is “Fighting Ebola.” The basket contains stocks that rallied heavily from the spread of the virus such as hazmat-suit maker Lakeland Industries (LAKE) and other drug makers (some money earned from the Motif will be donated to Doctors Without Borders).

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/addicted-to-caffeine–love-drones–scared-of-ebola–there-s-a-motif-for-you-211121895.html

  28. Libturd in Union says:

    Considering the length and breadth of the current bull market, it will be impossible to assign blame for a correction if one occurs. My guess is that the Shanghai market will implode before the Fed raises rates and the contagion will bring the world markets down to correction levels as well. The fed will never raise rates amid a market pull back.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Krugman is in no way advocating for permanent stimulus. Just a temporary stimulus to attack the demand/stagnation of our economy. He was advocating for this policy during a serious crash in our economy in which the stimulus would have helped in a major way, rather than cutting everything (which we did and look how long it’s taking). If we would have followed Krugman’s recommendation, we would have already been out of this mess instead of dealing with it almost 10 years later.

    Where does Krugman advocate for permanent negative rates?

    Libturd in Union says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:31 am
    I want to understand how wage growth is going to occur when companies can’t borrow at 0% to pay dividends, or juice eps. Of course if you believe Krugman, rates should be negative. Heck, print money in perpetuity. Rebuild the infrastructure of your entire country. Just make sure you ignore the impact that non-stop stimulus has on those who actually have wealth.

  30. Libturd in Union says:

    Nom,

    Learned a long time ago that there is no loyalty whatsoever in the insurance industry. There is actually the complete opposite. If you don’t change companies every three years, you are getting robbed. It’s as simple as that! To change more frequently may not be worth your time. The real savings are in home insurance. You could save $100-$200 on the car, but I often find $400 on the homes. It truly takes all of about an hour to do if you just quickly find out who to fax/email the quotes to. And getting someone on the phone to tell you this is pretty easy because they always answer the quote lines quickly.

  31. Libturd in Union says:

    “If we would have followed Krugman’s recommendation, we would have already been out of this mess instead of dealing with it almost 10 years later.”

    I would argue that he is playing Monday morning QB and there is no way of knowing if what he said is true. But one thing is for sure, it’s cheaper in the long run to save then it is to spend. I really think Krugman’s positions are nonsense and filled with political bias. Stimulus would certainly have benefited the lower rungs, but would it have trickled up? I highly doubt it. And to jump to this conclusion is akin to defending the Laffer Curve.

  32. Libturd in Union says:

    Back to insurance, when I last changed from All State to Geico on my cars, I pleaded with Allstate rep to match Geico’s price. They said they couldn’t as my zero claims in 25 years of driving meant I was due for a claim (complete and udder bullsh1t imo btw). About two months after I switched to Geico, they offered to match Geico’s price to get me back. As I said. No loyalty whatsoever. And if you think you are getting savings by putting both home and car on the same policy, it means you were overpaying already for one or the other. Shop around, thank me later.

  33. Ragnar says:

    I think we have zombie posters. They are brain dead but their fingers keep typing, apparently re-animated by the evil dwarf Krugman.

  34. jj says:

    But most folks can’t change homeowners insurance easily If you have a mortgage and it is part of escrow a bunch of extra hoops.

    Plus where I lived the vast majority of homeowners insurance no longer write policies. I have Met Life on primary and they stopped doing new policies in my town around 2001. So I am grandfathered. At Condo Assocation master policy is Chubb and they stopped those types of policies in the 1980s. They call it “run-off” They don’t cancel tons of policies all at once like Alstate does but pretty much in my town for instance when Sandy hit they stopped policies 11 years earlier so not many policies and of the ones left they had a long history of premiumns.

    My sister is an undewriter and they have a report with prems paid vs claims paid and every policy that has paid out more in claims than prems received goes automatically for review. They also add in use of funds. So lets say you paid over time 100K in prem and they invest at 6% with compounding they made decent coin off you.
    In the condo association case Chubb wrote policy in 1979 and first big claim was 2012. 33 years worth of prem plus some invested I bet as high as 16% interest back in the early 1980s. No way that condo would be no the drop report. But if we switch to save a little and we had another claim they would drop us in a second.

    My primary with Met I had a bit of a Sandy claim and some neighbors with new insurance companies got dropped. Met could care less as they had 12 years worth of prem before a single claim

    And remember have Chub or Met on Long Island is like a girls virginity you cant get it back. I drop and go to some no name company that then drops me or stiffs me on a claim I cant go back.

    Libturd in Union says:

    June 17, 2015 at 9:44 am

    Nom,

    Learned a long time ago that there is no loyalty whatsoever in the insurance industry. There is actually the complete opposite. If you don’t change companies every three years, you are getting robbed. It’s as simple as that! To change more frequently may not be worth your time. The real savings are in home insurance. You could save $100-$200 on the car, but I often find $400 on the homes. It truly takes all of about an hour to do if you just quickly find out who to fax/email the quotes to. And getting someone on the phone to tell you this is pretty easy because they always answer the quote lines quickly.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m going to go to extremes now to make an example. What happens when everyone cuts their spending and starts saving? What kind of impact does this have on our economy?

    So why during a complete bust in the economy(when everyone cuts their spending due to the economic conditions), would you advocate for more cuts and saving? What the hell is that exactly going to do? Why would this be seen as an answer to fixing an economy that has just crashed? How will it help?

    Ragnar says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:52 am
    I think we have zombie posters. They are brain dead but their fingers keep typing, apparently re-animated by the evil dwarf Krugman.

  36. anon (the good one) says:

    Obama’s hand rescued humanity after the Global Financial Crisis, so it may be time to go back to the market’s invisible hand

    Ragnar says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:02 am
    7, grim,
    I strongly believe that interest rates determined by the market for credit (i.e. lenders and borrowers), rather than central planners and their state-run and/or state-guaranteed lackeys, would be good for the US economy.

  37. Any rise in interest rates in our jury-rigged sham of a necronomy will trigger all kinds of problems. These problems will converge in another 2008 (or worse)-type collapse.

    Central planning has run out of bullets. All the problems exposed in 2008 still remain, and are actually worse now than then.

    Look at Deutsche Bank. Lots of similarities between them and pre-collapse Lehman. Something is stinky wrong there, and nobody seems to notice. I think they have some sort of Greek or EU exposure that is about to go horribly wrong.

    For that matter, I think we are days away from a Grexit, and God only knows what mayhem that will trigger.

  38. anon (36)-

    The market’s invisible hand is about to make a fist, then give you a mouth full of Chiclets, moron.

    “Obama’s hand rescued humanity after the Global Financial Crisis, so it may be time to go back to the market’s invisible hand”

  39. Libturd in Union says:

    Obama’s hand <— The psychosis worsens.

    Can we talk about what Bill Clinton's hand touched? Like everything besides his wife?

  40. When Mr. Market is finally given his own way- after years of manipulation by FedCo- nobody is going to be happy with the result.

    Gonna be like the last 15 minutes of Jurassic World. Lots of bloodshed, wailing, gnashing of teeth.

  41. Libturd in Union says:

    “But most folks can’t change homeowners insurance easily If you have a mortgage and it is part of escrow a bunch of extra hoops.”

    I’ve never experienced any issue whatsoever. Whichever insurance company I change to has always handled fixing the escrow for me. And I have two homes I do this with. If the insurance company doesn’t talk to the mortgage company, they don’t get paid. For me, it has been effortless.

    As for sticking with Chubby or Met? Why? Are they better than others? If my insurance company doesn’t want to pay a claim, I would sue them. Then again, I’m pretty handy, so I don’t have many claims.

  42. Libturd in Union says:

    “Lots of bloodshed, wailing, gnashing of teeth.”

    I think there will be mostly wailing. Maybe a little bloodshed. I don’t forecast much teeth gnashing though.

  43. LTFT says:

    question to the board if anyone is willing to chime in:
    Looking to take some gains from stock and put into a Vanguard fund in advance of making a down payment… Does anyone have a recommendation for which one(s)? They’re so many to choose from… Or something else akin to that would be fine as well?

    love the commentary here, thanks in advance even if no one responds

  44. 1987 Condo says:

    #32..after 25 years in sales and account management I have learned that “account retention” gains no support internally, but rather “new” sales always have special programs to incent. Also, no one gets paid to “retain” the account, they get commission for new accounts, so your Allstate rep really wanted you to leave so he gets a chance to make money if you come back.

  45. 1987 Condo says:

    #44..this is at big bureaucratic companies, smaller organizations actually understand the actual way it should work….

  46. Won’t need to worry about insurance when we’re roaming the country in armed packs, sleeping in the open next to trashcan fires.

  47. Ragnar says:

    Who borrows at 0%? People and institutions politically and structurally connected to the central planners’ teats. The Fed Funds rate is the rate that banks can borrow from each other overnight. That’s been close to free for them for years. Meaning the cost of liquidity is basically free. Which means investment banks funding for a lot of speculative asset purchases is close to free.
    Fairly directly, the cost of these overnight funds percolate into the entire financial system. Libor is connected, because it’s an alternative funding channel, and its global. Libor is going to track but not mirror the fed funds rate. That’s been close to free for a long time. Over the past year ranging between 0.5% and 0.8% annualized. Providing funding for hedge fund margin lending has got to be really cheap these days, as Libor is likely a good proxy for the banks’ cost of funding it. And from there, cheap rates and leverage can thus flow pretty much anywhere in the world.

  48. Looks like Janet the Grinch just banned a reporter who asks difficult questions from FedCo’s next dog/pony show…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/did-janet-yellen-just-ban-dow-jones-reporter-fed-press-conference-asking-difficult-q

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    LTFT,

    Why are you putting the proceeds of equity sales into a mutual fund if you plan to use it towards a down payment? Unless you are talking about a money market account?

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I def carry the more positive view. (not saying I’m right and you are wrong).

    You are dead right with this post if the dominoes fall into place. If any of these negative factors come to light, you may have your dream(let it all burn). You are absolutely right in that the fed is running low on weapons. Run into a similar crash like 2008 and I don’t know what they are going to do. So they are walking a tight line right now. I just pray that it all works out.

    I still hold the positive view that things are/will get better, but believe me, I fully understand that it can all go to shi! in a blink of an eye.

    Splat What Was He Thinking says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:59 am
    Any rise in interest rates in our jury-rigged sham of a necronomy will trigger all kinds of problems. These problems will converge in another 2008 (or worse)-type collapse.

    Central planning has run out of bullets. All the problems exposed in 2008 still remain, and are actually worse now than then.

    Look at Deutsche Bank. Lots of similarities between them and pre-collapse Lehman. Something is stinky wrong there, and nobody seems to notice. I think they have some sort of Greek or EU exposure that is about to go horribly wrong.

    For that matter, I think we are days away from a Grexit, and God only knows what mayhem that will trigger.

  51. joyce says:

    We had a stimulus, just not a big enough one… is that what you’re saying?

    What was cut?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:43 am

  52. Ragnar (47)-

    Easier answer to your question is that scum borrows at 0%.

    These are the ones whose heads should be lopped off first once everything goes batshit revolutionary.

  53. joyce says:

    Had the same exact thing with cable a number of years ago. I know a lot of people bluff and say they’re going to cancel to get a better price. I told them politely that I was leaving for a better price and would not be calling back. They said there was nothing they could do. The day before the tech was coming with the new boxes; the original company offered to match… too late.

    Libturd in Union says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:51 am

    “I pleaded with Allstate rep to match Geico’s price… About two months after I switched to Geico, they offered to match Geico’s price to get me back.”

  54. Grexit
    Mayhem
    Mayhem subsides
    EU periphery realizes sun still comes up after default, EU exit
    EU periphery bails
    Mayhem
    Mayhem
    Ultra Mayhem

  55. joyce (51)-

    You are talking to a cretin who believes you help the j0nkie by giving him ever-increasing quantities of smack.

  56. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    If there are no hiccups in the market, the FED will probably raise rates later this year. Will have to wait and see what the implications are to the RE market in Q1. Improving US employment numbers point gives them a reason to pull the trigger but movement in Europe’s is forcing them to hold back a little.

    And with a Presidential election next year, who knows what politics will play in the equation. They could play it safe and keep it on the greens with a small rate hike and maintain it for the rest of the year.

  57. joyce says:

    “So why during a complete bust in the economy(when everyone cuts their spending due to the economic conditions), would you advocate for more cuts and saving?”

    Because… if this were to happen, it would (should) force those with malinvestment to go bankrupt and liquidate/restructure which would lower private debt levels (isn’t that your holy grail steve keen?) and restart most people are a stronger foundation.

    Now, if you could couple that with throwing fraudsters in jail… there would be a precedent to act as a deterrent in the future.

  58. grim says:

    Funny, because it’s very difficult to determine if the market recovered because of, or in spite of.

  59. grim says:

    Frankly, it feels like there is some kind of new temporal aspect of the protracted low-rate period which has turned it on its head, as non-stimulative. Looking at it from a project/investment perspective, I may be sitting on a number of projects that meet my target return, hurdle rates, and they might be viable investments, but I may have others already in the pipeline. If I have an expectation of low rates next year, I might hold off on making that investment today. However, if I’m faced with an increasing rate environment, and that project which I’ve already invested in, might no longer make the hurdle, I might be more apt to secure funding and move forward with the project today. I understand that from an economic perspective, this is a nonsensical premise, but in the real world, I’m actually seeing this. I can push off projects to next year, because I don’t have the staff for them. The risk of pushing it off is minor, otherwise I’m going to need to hire additional staff, etc in the current year to be able to get the capital I need at the rates I need to make the project work.

    So yeah, pants up.

  60. Libturd in Union says:

    I would guess mortgage rates will finally move up a bit, either lowering home prices or god forbid, loosening credit requirements.

  61. Juice Box says:

    You guys are nuts. There is no pressure on the Fed to raise rates to head off any inflation, since there is no inflation. In fact the Fed got into the inflation “creation” business in 2008 after being in the inflation “containment” business since the Fed began 102 years ago.

    Anyone who think s they are going to do anything but jawbone obviously has not been paying attention.

    History Rhymes folks we are Japanese now. We will die a slow, slow death of saving face.

    As the BOJ head says, we have not reached escape velocity.

    “THIRD TIME’S THE CHARM? Three Reasons Japan Will Get More Stimulus”

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-09/three-reasons-japan-will-get-more-stimulus

  62. Libturd in Union says:

    Sadly, you are probably right Juice.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We had stimulus on the federal level that was totally washed out by the austerity policies at the state level. States cut like crazy.

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 10:19 am
    We had a stimulus, just not a big enough one… is that what you’re saying?

    What was cut?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:43 am

  64. JJ says:

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is telling its summer interns to take the night off.
    Banking interns were instructed to leave the office by midnight and not return before 7 a.m., while also taking Saturdays off, Michael DuVally, a spokesman for the New York-based bank, said Wednesday.
    Wall Street firms are attempting to reduce stress and improve conditions for their youngest workers. Goldman Sachs has increased salaries for junior employees and discouraged entry-level analysts from working weekends as many of the brightest college students seek careers in private equity or technology rather than investment banking.
    The new policy was reported earlier Wednesday by Reuters, which said Goldman Sachs has more than 2,900 summer interns this year.

  65. Libturd in Union says:

    What was cut at the state level?

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    65- What type of stimulus went towards infrastructure spending? Almost nothing.

  67. Libturd in Union says:

    “65- What type of stimulus went towards infrastructure spending? Almost nothing.”

    Really? What the heck paid for the truck lane extension on the turnpike and the widening of the GSP from 98 down to exit 0?

  68. Libturd in Union says:

    Also, the Blue team spent 800 billion thanking lobbyists and campaign financers who got little in return for their investments during the Bush regime.

  69. joyce says:

    So as I said previously (don’t feel like linking it), the fact that they didn’t spend enough = austerity. Though, nothing was cut.

    So as I said previously… you’re an idiot.

  70. A Home Buyer says:

    Joyce,

    Wasn’t sure if you saw this one. Not really a civil rights violation or a cover up. But still crazy.

    http://www.nj.com/monmouth/index.ssf/2015/06/ex-wife_killed_by_neptune_cop_remembered_as_devote.html

  71. grim says:

    Banking interns were instructed to leave the office by midnight and not return before 7 a.m.,

    I hear this has nothing to do with workload and stress. Interns were saving a small fortune by living out of the office and showering at the company gym downstairs. Goldman execs were furious that they hadn’t thought of it first, so they squashed it.

  72. Juice Box says:

    Plumkin and Turd.

    Vote for Trump.

  73. Libturd in Union says:

    Vote for Trump. He might be the best candidate.

  74. joyce says:

    AHB,

    “He then paced around the vehicle, holding his .40-caliber Glock service weapon to his head, LeMieux said. Police were able to secure the couple’s daughter before Phillip Seidle fired off more shots through the front windshield of Tamara Seidle’s car. A 30-minute standoff finally came to an end around noon, after Phillip Seidle surrendered to authorities.”

    pretty sure all non cops would have been shot dead

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    61- Juice, I can’t see America’s economy going down the same road as Japan. Too many different factors at play.

    “Persistently low inflation—running below the Federal Reserve’s two percent target since 2008—has led some to suggest that the United States may have entered a period of long-run economic stagnation. Support for the most pessimistic forecasts along these lines often is based on the case of Japan, where the economy’s deflationary slump is about to enter its third decade. But while the Japanese case provides an example well worth studying, the Japanese data, when examined with the help of modern macroeconomic theory, also illustrate an important lesson for how the United States can avoid a similar deflationary outcome.

    To illustrate the basic issue, Figure 1, below, plots the consumer price index for Japan since 1955. These data, usually converted to growth rates to measure inflation, are graphed here in levels so as to highlight the most striking fact: prices have not increased in Japan since the mid-1990s.

    Conventional analysis holds that a central bank can combat falling inflation by lowering short-term interest rates. In fact, figure 2 shows that the Bank of Japan followed exactly this strategy, bringing the Treasury bill rate down to a fraction of one percent as inflation fell to zero in 1995. But when, as in Japan, interest rates remain low not just for years but for decades without putting any upward pressure on prices, something must be wrong—some key variable must be missing from the analysis.

    Figure 3 fills in this gap by plotting the measure of monetary policy that has been ignored in virtually all other discussions of Japan’s performance: the growth rate of the broad, M2 money supply, which plummeted abruptly in Japan in the early 1990s and has not recovered since.

    One can make sense of the inflation data by looking at both interest rates and the money supply. It may be true that during normal times, when long-run inflationary expectations remain anchored, lower interest rates can signal that monetary policy has become more accommodative, putting upward pressure on prices. It seems far more likely over the past two decades in Japan, however, that the direction of causality has been reversed. Instead, interest rates are low because expected inflation has fallen: bond-holders no longer need a higher interest rate to compensate for rising prices that, if present, would erode the purchasing power of their saving. Slow money growth therefore represents the driving force behind both low inflation and low interest rates.

    To make this conclusion more compelling and more general, it can be helpful to construct another example that is the “mirror image” of the Japanese case today. Suppose, by sharp contrast, that inflation had averaged 10 percent per year in Japan since 1995—a rate that by any reasonable standard would be viewed as much too high. Suppose, as well, that Japanese Treasury bill rates fluctuated around 12 percent over the same two decades. And suppose, finally, that over this 20-year period, M2 grew at the same high rates—in excess of 15 or 20 percent per year—seen during the late 1960s and 1970s. Would anyone seriously argue that the high interest rates were symptomatic of an excessively tight monetary policy? More likely, they would focus on the rapid money growth as the common causal factor behind both high inflation and the high interest rates.

    These two examples—the first based on Japan’s actual experience since 1995 and the second based on a counterfactual—remind us of one of the most important and robust lessons that modern macroeconomics has to teach us. Inflation and deflation are similar problems with a common cure. Both have their causes in inappropriately fast or slow money growth, and both can be ended by monetary policies that act decisively to bring money growth back to more reasonable levels. In an earlier discussion that complements our own, David Laidler quotes Canadian economist Doug Purvis in order to summarize this lesson: “sound money, and plenty of it!” By this, Purvis meant that the central bank should allow the money supply to grow fast enough to avoid deflation, but not so fast so as to cause excessive inflation. Indeed, as Laidler discusses, Japan’s own experiment with “quantitative easing,” which began in 2001, did appear to have positive effects on both spending and inflation, before it was abandoned in 2006.

    Strangely, central bankers around the world appear to have forgotten this simple lesson. Despite seeing the clear example provided by Japan, policymakers at the Federal Reserve have paid less, not more, attention to measures of broad money growth since the mid-1990s. That’s a pity. By emphasizing in public statements that they are both willing and able to use monetary policy to control the growth rate of money, Federal Reserve officials could easily reassure Americans that the United States need not ever suffer from “Japanese-style” deflation.”

    http://www.economics21.org/commentary/united-states-avoid-japanese-deflation-money-04-28-2015

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why did this post 3 times?

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “When the recession in the United States began in late 2007, policy makers recognized
    its potential severity and took steps to reduce its magnitude and impact. A $787 billion stimulus program was enacted by the Congress in 2009. The purpose was to temporarily increase federal government spending in order to partially offset the reduction of spending by consumers and business firms. In addition, special programs were enacted to support automobile and new home sales. Unfortunately, most of the $787 billion took the form of one time payments to individuals or states and local governments. Only a small portion of the stimulus spending was devoted to infrastructure spending that can increase productivity growth and therefore have a multiplier effect on our rate of economic growth. And the special “cash for clunkers” program for automobiles and special tax credits for housing did little more than move forward spending on these two categories as opposed to increasing total spending. ”

    http://logon.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/EconomicOutlookPolicyResponsesintheUS_MHM10-17-13.pdf

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 11:35 am
    So as I said previously (don’t feel like linking it), the fact that they didn’t spend enough = austerity. Though, nothing was cut.

    So as I said previously… you’re an idiot.

  78. joyce says:

    they wouldn’t let people licensed to kill roam the streets without being qualified and trained, would they? what a pathetic excuse this is

    Jun 14, 2015
    Associated Press

    New gun blamed for rise in accidental gunshots by LA County deputies

    Sheriff’s officials attribute the increase to the learning curve for the new weapon, the Smith & Wesson M&P9

    LOS ANGELES — The number of accidental shootings by Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputies has more than doubled in two years as the department switches to a new handgun.

    There were 12 accidental discharges of weapons in 2012 and 30 last year — most of which involved the new gun, the Los Angeles Times reported.

    In October, a deputy tripped over a stroller and fired a bullet through the wall of a house in Huntington Park. Last November, a deputy in Lancaster shot himself in the thigh while pulling his gun. In December, a deputy in Compton accidentally pulled the trigger on his gun as he approached a suspected stolen car and a bullet hit the door. Nobody was in the car, however.

    The inspector general of the Sheriff’s Department is investigating the increase in accidental firings. But sheriff’s officials attribute the increase to the learning curve for the new weapon, the Smith & Wesson M&P9.

  79. joyce says:

    so you agree with my comments?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 17, 2015 at 12:17 pm
    “When the recession in the United States began in late 2007, policy makers recognized
    its potential severity and took steps to reduce its magnitude and impact. A $787 billion stimulus program was enacted by the Congress in 2009. The purpose was to temporarily increase federal government spending in order to partially offset the reduction of spending by consumers and business firms. In addition, special programs were enacted to support automobile and new home sales. Unfortunately, most of the $787 billion took the form of one time payments to individuals or states and local governments. Only a small portion of the stimulus spending was devoted to infrastructure spending that can increase productivity growth and therefore have a multiplier effect on our rate of economic growth. And the special “cash for clunkers” program for automobiles and special tax credits for housing did little more than move forward spending on these two categories as opposed to increasing total spending. ”

    http://logon.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/EconomicOutlookPolicyResponsesintheUS_MHM10-17-13.pdf

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 11:35 am
    So as I said previously (don’t feel like linking it), the fact that they didn’t spend enough = austerity. Though, nothing was cut.

    So as I said previously… you’re an idiot.

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, almost nothing.

    Libturd in Union says:
    June 17, 2015 at 11:33 am
    “65- What type of stimulus went towards infrastructure spending? Almost nothing.”

    Really? What the heck paid for the truck lane extension on the turnpike and the widening of the GSP from 98 down to exit 0?

  81. 1987 Condo says:

    #73…Trump could play the Ross Perot card, spend money and try and frame the discussion….he should run third party…debates would be entertaining and he would make a few points.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, I have not seen any major stimulus that has created jobs or improved infrastructure in a major way. I have only witnessed state govt cut and reduce the pay of their workforce. If you want to cut and reduce the pay of the workforce, you don’t do it in the middle of an economic calamity. You do it when the economy is on solid footing.

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 12:19 pm
    so you agree with my comments?

  83. Libturd in Union says:

    The only thing worth studying from Japan is tentacle pron.

  84. joyce says:

    I suppose it would be a little tougher to keep him out of the debates. The parties might not like it, but the networks would LOVE the ratings.

    1987 Condo says:
    June 17, 2015 at 12:21 pm
    #73…Trump could play the Ross Perot card, spend money and try and frame the discussion….he should run third party…debates would be entertaining and he would make a few points.

  85. Libturd in Union says:

    ” If you want to cut and reduce the pay of the workforce, you don’t do it in the middle of an economic calamity. You do it when the economy is on solid footing. ”

    Did you really just say that? The way the government operates is to spend any additional revenue during the good times on the areas they neglected during the bad.

    In Montclair, which has one of the most expensive libraries in the state, they cut the operating budget from like 4 million down to 2. The moment the revenue came back, all of the cut jobs were restored and then some. The library functioned fine, btw, at 2 million.

  86. joyce says:

    So, like I said… there was a “stimulus” but you don’t think it was enough (Keynesian zombie, Check!)

    While state & local govt may have cut some jobs (may have), they did not lower their spending at all. At best, they lowered the rate of increase.

    The financial crises are getting larger and larger because for decades the smaller ones have been papered over with more credit & printing to delay and push it into the future. At some point, who knows when, things must be restructured. You want laborers to earn more and financial wizards to earn less?… allow the restructuring and re-balancing to take place.

    PS. “Keynesian Zombie” could be a nice name for someone here.

    PPS. You’re an idiot.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 17, 2015 at 12:22 pm
    No, I have not seen any major stimulus that has created jobs or improved infrastructure in a major way. I have only witnessed state govt cut and reduce the pay of their workforce. If you want to cut and reduce the pay of the workforce, you don’t do it in the middle of an economic calamity. You do it when the economy is on solid footing.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like I said, I don’t call that stimulus. I call that transferring tax money from one individual to another.

  88. joyce says:

    WTF do you think the gov does? Either directly takes money from one to another, or indirectly does it through the FED system or through regulation.

  89. Anybody have suggestions as to the size of the bounty I put on Punkin’s head?

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Investing in the creation of jobs that leads to growth in the economy is my idea of stimulus. It benefits everyone because the economy improves. I don’t agree with taking money from one person and giving it to another with no economic benefit for all, that’s not stimulus, that is theft.

  91. D-FENS says:

    There’s a few cell phone videos of this happening yesterday. Some on youtube, some on the news sites.

    A Home Buyer says:
    June 17, 2015 at 11:59 am
    Joyce,

    Wasn’t sure if you saw this one. Not really a civil rights violation or a cover up. But still crazy.

    http://www.nj.com/monmouth/index.ssf/2015/06/ex-wife_killed_by_neptune_cop_remembered_as_devote.html

  92. joyce says:

    Theft in the name of stimulus = GOOD
    Identical theft without your fairy tale stimulus = BAD

    “Investing in the creation of jobs that leads to growth in the economy is my idea of stimulus.”

    Long term economic growth comes from individuals participating in voluntary exchange meeting the needs and demands of each other sharing in any productivity gains.

  93. Ragnar says:

    anon and pals are happy to place themselves in the supple, well moisturized hands of Obama and Krugman. They never fail to stimulate them in the right places and at the right times.

  94. leftwing says:

    Cannot believe I am doing this…..Nom save me…….

    How do you think government spending is funded (your definition of stimulative or otherwise)? Government spending is covered via the extra taxes you want to collect from, on any give day, the 1 through 50%ers? Taxes are the taking of money from one person for the benefit of another.

    Government is a *cost* center Einstein. It doesn’t make a profit. It doesn’t make anything for revenue, it simply taxes or borrows (future tax obligation) to cover its current spending.

    “Investing in the creation of jobs that leads to growth in the economy is my idea of stimulus. It benefits everyone because the economy improves. I don’t agree with taking money from one person and giving it to another with no economic benefit for all, that’s not stimulus, that is theft.”

  95. leftwing says:

    59-67, inflation and stimulus

    “Frankly, it feels like there is some kind of new temporal aspect of the protracted low-rate period which has turned it on its head, as non-stimulative.”

    There was nothing stimulative about QE. It was about preventing a financial crash and pumping out enough greenbacks to shore up against a dramatic deflation of assets.

    It was a bunch of guys with shovels furiously throwing dirt into a massive, rapidly expanding sinkhole. That doesn’t make a mountain (stimulus), it just hopefully keeps the hole from getting even bigger.

    Grossly oversimplified, assume we are generally back to where we were pre-2008 on major measures. If one were to add up all the QE since then it is that amount by which capital, asset values, etc. would have been otherwise reduced had QE not occurred. QE didn’t stimulate, it filled the rapidly opening holes in capital and asset values. Absent QE, aside from the obvious blowups in the financial sector, the S&P500 would likely be sub-1000, house prices would have slight gains over ’08, etc, etc.

    QE kept us at par, pre-2008 by shoring up assets (balance sheet item). It did not stimulate growth or spending (income statement item).

  96. NJGator says:

    Thank you Tricky D*ck for hopefully putting an end to one of the dumbest redevelopment decisions ever in Montclair.

    http://baristanet.com/2015/06/nj-supreme-courts-decision-rules-against-proposed-montclair-assisted-living-facility/

  97. McDullard says:

    LTFT,

    If you need the money for downpayment in the near future (under 5 years is what I’ve read), you should put it in some savings account, no- or low-penalty CDs, or money market. If you put your money in stock or bond-based mutual funds, your principal may be at risk.

    Ally bank has some decent CDs. Five year CDs used to have 60 days interest penalty (now it is 150 days penalty), and had a decent interest rate (2.5 %; now at 2 %). Savings rates are at about 1%.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If all stimulus is the same, then pay people to dig holes and fill them. Will you get the same result if you took that same money and instead have them build a new tunnel to nyc? Or invested in state of the art programs at a university?

  99. McDullard says:

    Stu #73, Condo #81, Joyce #84

    Trump seems to be cheap and is likely in this to make some money out of this instead of spending his own money.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How does one achieve long term growth under the current problem of stagflation? The stagflation is a result of productivity gains not being shared. So the govt should have no role in directing stimulus to take the place of the productivity gains not being shared?

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 12:54 pm
    Theft in the name of stimulus = GOOD
    Identical theft without your fairy tale stimulus = BAD

    “Investing in the creation of jobs that leads to growth in the economy is my idea of stimulus.”

    Long term economic growth comes from individuals participating in voluntary exchange meeting the needs and demands of each other sharing in any productivity gains.

  101. joyce says:

    99
    yup

  102. joyce says:

    You’re f-cking hopeless.
    You have no understanding of the causes of the symptoms you cry about daily; and furthermore, what you’ve advocated and continue to advocate for are exacerbating these symptoms. This has been explained to you here ad nauseam.

  103. leftwing says:

    Brother, if you think we are in a period of stagflation you need to break out a financial dictionary and some LT charts.

    When I went into HS the CPI was 7% and payrolls were growing at 5%.
    When I entered college the CPI was 14% and payroll growth was negative.

    Payrolls are growing modestly and CPI, even adjusting out the huge energy price declines, is nearly flat.

    You’re back to just flat out making stuff up.

  104. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    It is the same thing in the workplace, no? You stay loyal, you are openly requesting to be underpaid……

    Libturd in Union says:
    June 17, 2015 at 9:44 am
    Nom,

    Learned a long time ago that there is no loyalty whatsoever in the insurance industry. There is actually the complete opposite. If you don’t change companies every three years, you are getting robbed. It’s as simple as that! To change more frequently may not be worth your time. The real savings are in home insurance. You could save $100-$200 on the car, but I often find $400 on the homes. It truly takes all of about an hour to do if you just quickly find out who to fax/email the quotes to. And getting someone on the phone to tell you this is pretty easy because they always answer the quote lines quickly.

  105. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    here comes the sugar high…….

  106. Libturd in Union says:

    I was curious to see what public libraries cost today. In Montclair, with a population around 50K, they spend $84 per residents. In Glen Ridge with a population of 7.5K, they spend $82 per resident. Both are high relative to the state average, but besides Atlantic City (which we all know is completely f’ed) Montclair is one of the highest in the state when it comes to towns with large populations. So much for economies of scale.

  107. Libturd in Union says:

    It is the same thing in the workplace, no? You stay loyal, you are openly requesting to be underpaid……

    You are absolutely right. But the intangibles increase greatly. For example, I have an incredibly flexible work schedule which works well when Gator and my commute. Just the savings in not needing to pay for aftercare are immeasurable. When I ruptured my Achilles tendon, they made huge compromises to the rules so I could still perform my job and not be forced to go on disability. I doubt they would do this for a new hire. I have greater job security too as I have engrained myself into lots of workflows where I am now a single point of potential failure if I am not present. But to your point, I probably could me making more dough if I jumped around. If that was a priority of mine, I would. I like to be able to see my kids perform in stupid assemblies unfortunately.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “During stagflation, all three of these indicators moved in the same direction. The CPI went up, the dollar lost against major currencies, and gold ballooned in price. In the era of the Great Recession, there was some divergence. The CPI did not budge, but the dollar did keep up its long-term diminution against foreign exchange initiated in the early days of the George W. Bush presidency, just as gold kept the big march on that had begun in the early 2000s.

    Thus it has always been inaccurate to say that the stagflation of the 1970s was not reprised in the slow-growth 2000s. For by two of three measures of the dollar’s value—and both of these the market measures—the dollar collapsed in the 2000s just as before. The odd man out in the 2000s was the CPI. But the CPI is the poor relation to begin with—it’s just some creature of the Labor Department, which itself is a non-participant in the real economy.

    You can ask, why did the CPI go up in the 1970s but not the 2000s? The Keynesian answer is that the current economy is beset by slack, whereas in the 1970s we were already at productive capacity. The tech and entrepreneurial boom that was aching for release in the 1970s is enough to reveal this argument as nonsense.

    The other, far more plausible argument is that business had good reason to encourage price increases in the 1970s, as today it does not.”

    “$1200 gold and a dollar at 45-year lows against major currencies (see the Fed’s own clear data on this) show that Bernanke’s loosening coincided with a most considerable flight from regular investments and capital commitments. The major collapse in the employment market that we are still reeling from today (the representative statistic being the plunge in the labor-force participation rate) is the natural accompaniment to the kind of monetary policy that Bernanke made his own. Bernanke actively presided over stagflation II. Citing the CPI to the contrary is to adduce the weakest evidence in the service of a bad argument.”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2014/02/03/bernanke-gave-us-plenty-of-inflation-and-stagflation/

    leftwing says:
    June 17, 2015 at 2:03 pm
    Brother, if you think we are in a period of stagflation you need to break out a financial dictionary and some LT charts.

    When I went into HS the CPI was 7% and payrolls were growing at 5%.
    When I entered college the CPI was 14% and payroll growth was negative.

    Payrolls are growing modestly and CPI, even adjusting out the huge energy price declines, is nearly flat.

    You’re back to just flat out making stuff up.

  109. 1987 Condo says:

    #106…apparently library budgets are set by state law as a percentage of the tax rate. I will search for a link but we were stunned in CG to realize we have to spend so much more, so now we are “expanding” the building.

  110. Anon E. Moose says:

    Tool [36];

    Obama’s hand rescued humanity after the Global Financial Crisis

    Wow… just… wow. My first reaction is to advise medial intervention with strong psychotropic pharmaceuticals, but you’re clearly already heavily chemically influenced.

  111. 1987 Condo says:

    Governor Chris Christie signed the Municipal Library Tax Levy Law on March 21, 2011. The new law creates an additional line item on property tax bills to show the amount of municipal public library funding. This is not a new tax and does not increase property taxes. It simply provides a way for residents to easily see how much they pay to support their public library.

    Since 1884, state statutes have provided for minimum library funding levels. Library funding is a small portion of any tax bill. NJ municipal libraries are funded at the rate of 33¢ for each $1,000 of assessed property value. Until now, the appropriation for the public library has been included in the general municipal line of your tax bill. Beginning this year, the minimum library appropriation will be shown separately in the “public library tax” line on your local tax bill. The general municipal tax levy will be reduced by the amount of the library tax. In municipalities where library services are budgeted at a level higher than the statutory minimum, any additional appropriations above the minimum amount will continue to be funded through the municipal budget with a 2% cap. In 2011, the West Orange Public Library was funded at the minimum statutory level

    http://patch.com/new-jersey/westorange/what-the-library-tax-line-means

  112. 1987 Condo says:

    Library Tax:

    How is minimum funding for my public library determined?
    The minimum funding statute for joint and municipal libraries (N.J.S.A. 40:54-8) sets the minimum
    funding rate at 33 cents on each $1,000 of equalized value of all assessable property in the town.
    This minimum funding amount is the total of what your local municipality must, at minimum, allocate
    in its budget, according to the law.

    http://njla.org/sites/default/files/municipaltax_faq.pdf

    Of course, no one uses libraries anymore so it is ironic we now have a minimum tax.

  113. Libturd in Union says:

    Another example of how the government sucks. As the brick and mortar book stores slowly disappear, public libraries will be a mainstay long after they have become obsolete. Encyclopedia Britannica anyone?

    I look forward to the line item on my Montclair tax bill that shows the state minimum and what the progressive bastion spends on it. Of course, in Montclair, the library functions more as a grossly overpriced computer lab and babysitting service.

    $84 per person. That’s crazy.

  114. 1987 Condo says:

    I think our town “shuttled” excess funds from library, in 2008-2009, we saved a few DPW jobs that way..but the 2011 directive ended that practice…

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ok, so the Feds monetary policy is to blame. So you suggest getting rid of the fed? Just understand that you take away the ability to expand and contract the currency in times of need. You sure you want to see this all crash? When economies crash, you usually go backwards in terms of development because the majority of the population begins to act totally irrational. With this irrational behavior comes law breaking and chaos. Just understand that every time you go into a crash under these conditions, society might not make it back. Look how long it took society to return from the roman economic crash….more than a thousand years for Europe to come back from that crash.

    People rip Kenyesians, but this school has been able to prevent a major crash for almost 100 years. 2008 was not a total crash due to Kenyesians policies preventing it from happening. I thank them for that.

    joyce says:
    June 17, 2015 at 2:00 pm
    You’re f-cking hopeless.
    You have no understanding of the causes of the symptoms you cry about daily; and furthermore, what you’ve advocated and continue to advocate for are exacerbating these symptoms. This has been explained to you here ad nauseam.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [27] FKA

    “Motif allows investors to create their own fund by selecting up to 30 stocks or ETFs based around a theme or an idea.”

    I like this one:

    https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/guns-guards-and-gates

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    Tragic event in Canada. And anon blames the GOP and the rich

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/london-cellphone-shooting-jeremy-cooks-120228159.html

  118. leftwing says:

    108.

    Stag/flation. A period of STAGnant growth and high inFLATION.

    Do you even read what you post:

    “The CPI did not budge, but the dollar did keep up its long-term diminution against foreign exchange….Citing the CPI to the contrary is to adduce the weakest evidence in the service of a bad argument.”

    So let me understand this, because I actually read and don’t just cut and paste a google search.

    The author makes a tortured and tautological argument to redefine stagflation not as everyone accepts it, but as stagnant growth and a weak dollar. He then says, ‘aha there was stagflation under this definition!’ He goes on to conclude that anyone citing that a critical component of STAGnant growth and high inFLATION is missing is offering weak evidence for a bad argument under the way he alone newly defines stagflation?

    Moreover, you understand that stagnant growth normally goes with lower US interest rates, and lower domestic rates means a lower dollar? So saying that CPI and rates did not increase and the dollar was weak is basically tautological, they happen hand in hand? And you understand then that the reason that stagflation is special is not because things occur as they should (stagnant growth, low CPI, low rates, weak dollar) but exceptionally (stagnant growth, HIGH CPI)?

    You and this author deserve each other. Redefine anything to make a conclusion, and then pronounce that conclusion correct based on your new facts and (often) tortured logic.

    Going to the mirror. Nom, buddy, you disappeared on me……

  119. leftwing says:

    Actually Punkin, let me make a simple analogy for you.

    Punkin/author:
    Red is now Green.
    Mix Green and Yellow.
    Get Orange.
    Anyone who says Red and Yellow makes orange is offering ‘the weakest evidence in service of a bad argument’.

    LOL.

  120. leftwing says:

    Nom, you may not realize this but you are my ‘Punkin Sponsor’.

    Punkins Anonymous. Anytime it looks like I’m coming close to responding to a post you need to talk me down. Get me out of there. Give me the old ‘pass on that post, be strong’ pep talk. Be there for me buddy.

  121. xolepa says:

    (104) I’ve been at my company > 10 years. Work from home. Nice 6 figure salary. Annual increases. What’s wrong with that? I’m not complaining.

  122. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:
  123. leftwing says:

    Love it. Wish the articles would focus more on the real news which is incentivizing employees. Just ditching minimum wage doesn’t work despite the glitzy headline. All these stories have incentive comp in common – the $75k QuikTrip manager, the waiters with ownership and bonus potential.

    LOL, “liquor inventory is lean”. Will I still get a good pour? Favorite line to the young 20 somethings who eyedropper me a Goose is ‘do you own the place’? Answer always ‘no’ so follow up is to make them aware that they get more money from me for themselves by giving away someone else’s vodka to me……….

  124. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [123] small caliber

    I hope it catches on. Tipping has completely morphed from its intended purpose. And the science and economics behind the new system are intriguing

  125. walking bye says:

    I agree with sticking with Met Life. Had them for 15 years and my rate went up 15% total over that time. Of course Ive never had a claim.

  126. Juice Box says:

    deblasio hates uber…

    “In New York, taxi-enforcement agents seized almost 500 Uber cars over the last six weeks for illegal street pickups, over half of all its seizures for illegal-pickup violations, the city’s Taxi and Limousine Commission said. The seizures were first reported by the New York Post and the New York Daily News.”

  127. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [120] leftwing,

    I will do my best but you know the old saying “God helps those who help themselves”

    Don’t let pumpkin lead you into temptation.

  128. leftwing says:

    “Obama’s hand rescued humanity after the Global Financial Crisis”

    Hahahaha. Sorry, prompted a visual I can’t get out of my head.

    Animal House, end of movie, parade blown up. The ‘Friendship’ float with a massive white hand embracing an equally massive black hand is broken apart. The massive black hand careens down the street and scoops up some unsuspecting college kid.

    Think the black hand scooped up Niedermeyer, and delivered him to demise at the hand of his own troops in Vietnam.

    Prophetic? Hahahaha.

  129. leftwing says:

    Yellin, assets, inflation, and stimulus:

    Just had the ability to watch Yellin’s presser from 2:30p. Interesting question a bit after halfway through from the reporter from MarketWatch.

    Asks about the rapid runup in house prices, affordability, and whether new participants getting priced out of the market is a concern for the Fed.

    Yellin was pretty clear. The low rate environment is ‘restoring’ equity values for homeowners, and homes represent the major wealth of most citizens. There was almost a ‘oops, too bad’ on the new buyer side.

    Two takeaways:

    1. QE is all about arresting and reversing asset deflation, and not the stimulative side of the economy.

    2. Look out below on housing when Yellin & Co decide wealth is ‘restored’. The gubmint always seems to forget about the ‘dump’ side when running a ‘pump’…..

  130. Juice Box says:

    For those not paying attention, if the Fed hikes the world ends. It ain’t about the equity in your double wide.

  131. Ben says:

    Look how long it took society to return from the roman economic crash

    How did society fare after every crash in the 1800s? Every single recession self corrected for a 100 year period and the standard of living and wealth of the nation was consistently raised. Keynesianism has been bailed out consistently through major technological advances throughout the past 100 years.

  132. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Unbelieveable. That 5th floor balcony was structurally only made out of wood! I would have expected there to be some iron I-beams in there.

    http://news.yahoo.com/6-killed-california-balcony-collapse-during-party-063649164.html

  133. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When it’s stucco’d over like that, how can you even inspect it?

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/killed-california-balcony-collapse-party-31819614

  134. Marilyn says:

    #37 I think your very smart.

  135. leftwing says:

    “For those not paying attention, if the Fed hikes the world ends. It ain’t about the equity in your double wide.”

    Meh. I think their perspective is that they have to hike in Sept unless there is some very serious p00p hitting the fan domestically or internationally. They’ll put all the exculpatory language they need around it, ‘glide’ path, etc.

    Then they go on autopilot and let the economy seriously overcorrect before action number two. Especially since we are in an election year and there is the unwritten rule that it is verboten to raise rates then.

    Throw all that in a blender and I get a market UP on the back of a well advertised, priced in, and soft landed hike number one and then a further UP as they let the economy run through summer 2016 unfettered. Not the conventional wisdom, but a trade I will set up on the next pullback.

    That also allows housing prices to run through Spring 2016 which she made eminently clear was a good thing. Re: housing, FedCo is on the side of building equity for existing homeowners, not putting more butts in those seats.

    And, as an added bonus for the first female Fed chairman nominated by the outgoing President, it provides robust production and employment numbers going into Election 2016.

    Anyone buckling up for Armeggedon on the back of a 9/2015 hike is going to be disappointed.

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [134] expat

    A few months ago, a friend from law school was on a balcony that collapsed in the Bay Area. 3rd floor. He woke up in a hospital with multiple fractures, including a skull fracture and compound femur fracture. He is still in rehab and will never walk right. So much metal in him now that he needs to carry a card for TSA.

    Balconies and decks are almost always deficient. My wife bought a house with an improperly installed deck and it caused 25k in damage. Finally, we were on our wayy to a party in DC once. When we got there, emergency vehicles lined the street. Their deck had collapsed. One story, minor injuries.

    I suspect Cali will be cracking down on the balconies, I’m certain of that. And whenever I look at a house, the deck gets special attention.

  137. Fading Gigolo John Turturro has clearly become a minumum of one relating to Hollywood’s best of the best actor-writer-directors.Fading Gigolo|often|is this this weekend usually his fourth triple-threat movie and a resource box co-stars Woody Allen as his everywhere in the and if you notice off- eye – port mentor.Murray (Allen),a.nufactur.a “Uncle Mo”,an all in one.nufactur.a multi functional “Bongo” could be the an all in one third-generation bookstore owner everywh

Comments are closed.