From the Star Ledger:
ould it be true? Is New Jersey’s pension fund for public workers — among the worst-funded in the nation — really on the road to recovery?
That’s what a consultant’s analysis of the state’s investment strategy suggests.
The report to the State Investment Council on Wednesday said the pension fund for nearly 800,000 public and retired workers may have some more trouble in the short term but will come up smelling like roses decades from now.
Of course, it’s based on a couple of pretty big assumptions: that investments won’t tank, and that the state makes good on its commitment to increase its yearly contributions to the fund and resists the decades-old habit of skimping when times are bad.
If all that happens, the pension fund could be could be 93 percent funded within three decades.
The consultant, Aon Hewitt, calls this its “median expectation.”
Aon Hewitt’s simulation, which it warns is “highly dependent upon assumptions regarding investment returns and funding policy,” presents a more optimistic future than actuarial estimates showing some of the individual funds running out of money well before then.