From Inman:
Home price gains continue to slow down in June: Case-Shiller
Annual home price gains continued to slow in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, released Tuesday. Home prices, on average, achieved an annual 3.1 percent gain in June, down from 3.3 percent the previous month.
“Home price gains continue to trend down, but may be leveling off to a sustainable level,” Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.
The overall average price gain slowed, Murphy said, but one less city experienced lower year-over-year price gains than in May.
“The Southwest – Phoenix and Las Vegas – remains the regional leader in home price gains, followed by the southeast – Tampa and Charlotte,” Murphy said. “With three of the bottom five cities – Seattle, San Francisco, and San Diego – much of the West Coast is challenged to sustain year-over-year gains.”
First ….where is everybody ?
Congratulations NJ – Second most expensive state to buy a home in (property price + taxes):
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-most-expensive-state-to-buy-a-home-in-its-not-new-york-or-california-2019-08-29?mod=mw_theo_homepage
More expensive than California and NY, btw.
Mass. was #1.
Vacation.
Leaving Manhattan yesterday around 5 was a complete breeze. Path to ‘boken and the drive down Rt 3 was pretty quick/easy. Everybody must be gone already.
I expected chaos on the day before the holiday weekend (sorry, it’s already the weekend), but no dice.
Was hanging out with a NYC fintech startup. So many kegs, so much kombucha and cold brew on tap. Felt like SV.
Pure unfiltered idiocy
https://nypost.com/2019/08/30/former-canadian-prime-minister-roots-for-dorian-to-hit-trumps-mar-a-lago/
GSP was packed most of the day yesterday. My co-workers monitor the traffic. One has to get to Bay Head
Should I bother trying to get back down to Miami on Tuesday?
March towards north jersey urbanization continues..
“WAYNE, NJ – A proposal to build several hundred housing units in Wayne is on hold as the township and the project’s developer face off in court over the township’s affordable housing obligation, according to a report.”
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/valley-national-hq-housing-development-hold-report?utm_term=article-slot-1&utm_source=newsletter-daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter
The secret in that area is if you get off at exit 98, taking Rt 34 to 35 is a waste of time during large traffic. You gotta take Ramshorn Drive. I used to live off of it. 35 mph no traffic ever. It drops you off at 70, you cross the bridge and you can take River Rd into Point Pleasant.
That’s the property by Urban Club Road?
Should fit well with the high density housing that will fill the Toys R Us property too.
Yea, by urban club. It’s sickening to watch the place you grew up (north jersey) change before your eyes. At least we get paid for the massacre through the price of dirt going through the roof as they cram more and more people into this little section of nj and America.
Doubt you will see much single family construction in north jersey again. Current supply is the last of the Mohicans.
Consumer spending increases in July and inflation is still low if the numbers are to be believed so where is the recession?
Recession threat is entirely psychological
Symptom of TDS.
KAG2020
Just amazed people are anticipating and in some cases hoping for one. Never seen that before!
A recession is coming but it likely happens in 22-23, call it the Orange dufus hangover. Right now the repatriation of offshore money continues to shore up the economy. The corporate tax change is one of the few good things Trump did along with going after china(don’t get me started on the stupidity of fighting a trade war with the EU at the same time at least they buy stuff from us….). Once that effect disappears there could be contraction.
“affordable housing” Oxymoron in N.J.
There is no such thing. Still waiting to hear how NJ plans to tackle its ballooning 100k+ BILLION dollar debt to the retirees…
There is no such thing. Still waiting to hear how NJ plans to tackle its ballooning 100k+ BILLION dollar debt to the retirees…
Gas tax increase, rain tax, air tax, elevation tax, mood tax, route 80, 78, 195 toll roads… that’s a start.
I think the NYC area is in some sort of regional recession. No other way to explain lack of good paying jobs…or really plethora of embarrassing salaries for regional COL. Also people I know personally that sold a house (or selling) are taking absolute bloodbath if bought last 7-8 years. Not mark of strong economy in my book. I would say stagnant in best case, which is troublesome.
Bystander NYC is not doing well under trump. Honestly NYC is not doing well because the finance industry is not doing well, we are beginning to enter the period where the financial industry fundamentally changes, the level of service and the cost paid to conduct financial transactions has hit rock bottom, there is margin compression in all directions. At the moment the legacy players are trying to restore and increase profits by cutting operational spend. Truthfully good jobs were really being created by a very stringent regulatory regime. Now the pressure is gone, millions of dollars or billions even in fines was an enticement to hire as many people as you could to avoid.
Also the mayor is an idiot, we aren’t attracting new economic activity at a time it seems the regional engine(finance) is slowing down. We could have had Amazon…..AOC and the idiots in NYC chased away all that new economic activity which also would have spurred even further economic activity in the region. At the moment those up the food chain are just protecting their pay at the expense of all the people doing the work.
Bystander in my town if you bought in the last 10 years you would be lucky to break even at best after commission . In other cases it’s a loss after commission. I
Don’t think it’s necessarily a recession in this area but more prices are still high and property taxes as well. And a decade ago pricing is best one can expect when selling.
Jcer good points. But I still see people spending money; maybe they don’t care. I just passed a sign for a two bed 2 bath apartment on Greenwich Street in downtown Manhattan for 5,520.00 . I have not seen a sign like that before maybe someone is trying to sublet it. That is insane IMO! Earlier in the week there was the article about the median age of first time home buyer is now 46!! No offense to anyone but that in my opinion is too old to take on a mortgage. It really is a different world
Bystander in my town if you bought in the last 10 years you would be lucky to break even at best after commission .
This past spring, a neighbor’s sister offered me 75K more than what I paid for the house in 2015. I could get more. I’ve made money on the last two sales, I’ll make it on this one if/when I decide to sell despite the market.
At the moment those up the food chain are just protecting their pay at the expense of all the people doing the work.
It’s called the liberal/progressive model.
Jcer,
Agree..totally
3b,
I don’t even know what breaking even is anymore. My neighbors paid about 880k 5 years ago and dumped 70k on it within last 3 years. They are three months on market and 6k under their purchase price. Even if someone pays full ask now I see 100k loss with realtor fees. Some do rent calc over time but that is a BS way of making feel better. My bro tried to do same thing with his 120k loss after 9 years of ownership.
Nah, Ed, it is the fascist corporatist model..we got bailed out, a major tax cut and we still want more. My last two Euro IBs have screwed people with 0 raises.
By,
Nip and tuck, one day at a time, find a crease and take it to the house! ;) I have no answers nor does anyone else, it seems. Patience is the only advice I can give anyone.
Per my handle I took a $50,000 loss on a $140,000 condo, that was a big percentage!
A place near me in Princeton is really gaming the system good. They bought 5 acres and there was a house and a barn. They run a fake farm with 10 lavender plants. They finished the barn and AirBnb it.
To revisit, my take is up the food chain people are doing well, that is who can afford Manhattan. The peons can’t even afford the boros or Hudson coast at this point. Traditionally your workers came from the suburbs, these are the people feeling the pain. When bonuses in the back office or tech departments of these WS firms don’t materialize, or people are laid off forced to be contractors they cannot take on liabilities like a suburban home that usually comes with crushing taxes. It’s a bifurcation of society into the haves and have nots and it is becoming pronounced, high end areas are booming while the middle class areas will either collapse into poor areas or move up the food chain.
NYC is basically a 3rd world country, the impoverished and the wealthy with a shrinking middle class in between.
Don’t worry Bystander, your senior leadership is compensated handsomely…..
Fast maybe you will maybe you won’t. But nothing is guaranteed. I am just telling you what I see in my blue ribbon desirable train town and it’s in other towns as well. I think it’s shocking if true that the median age for a first time home buyer is 46!! That’s kissing 50!! Too old and what’s the point!! Just one other observation if we are so great and wonderful and sophisticated educated and savvy why do so many people appear to be so freaking miserable! Just saying.
3b 5500 is actually a low rent for a 2 bedroom in Manhattan at this point. Median rent in Manhattan below 96th st is like $4300. Nice studios are over $3500 at this point.
Jcer I Know Manhattan is expensive, I was just surprised to see the sign and to think someone will pay that. It’s a nice old office building converted to residential. I don’t know what amenities it might have.
Fast Eddie, If you paid fair market value for your Pascack Valley home in the last few years breaking even without a commission is a good deal. More likely in the lower 2/3 of the price structure.
Your neighbor’s sister? Pre-approved? LOL. Whatever you have to tell yourself to feel good.
Jcer,
No doubt. My boss can’t travel to his teams in Europe or India lately. I asked him why and he said MDs and senior EDs basically take entire T&E for themselves.
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We just came back from seeing a nice place in north Fort Lee on the border of Englewood Cliffs. One block from my wife’s job and a few blocks from mine. She can walk to work and walk home for lunch, I can ride a bike or take the car a couple of blocks. This is your run of the mill all brick 80’s 2FAM 2BA/3B. All new appliances, granite, central AC, garage, yard, quiet dead end street, manicured lot. ensuite bath just renod for $15K. Our commutes will be 3mins by foot and 3 mins by car. Two and a half per month (taxes on this place are $18K btw)
As much as I would like to sit in our current unit and see if the new buyer will be an investor who takes possession but does not need to move in, the uncertainty drives my wife nuts. And I think we’d be crazy to pass this up.
Avoiding all that wear and tear on your cars is ultimately worth some five figure sum over time.
Been fortunate enough to be on the right side of the equation. Beat my life goals before age 40. Nervous, trying my hardest to avoid the blow of the bad luck I know will come. Ying and yang is no joke.
“The economic expansion has showered the U.S. with new wealth, but that windfall has passed by many Americans”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/historic-asset-boom-passes-by-half-of-families-11567157400
As dirty expat will attest to (where is he?), I had a rough upbringing. Not mad at my dad, but he provided the motivation I have to take everything to the next level. Had a rough upbringing. Fortunate enough to have a mom that gave it her all.
Abeiz,
Go for it. It’s only going up in value.
Taxes are the cost we live with in a high density area that provides a lot of opportunities to make money. Real estate is safe as hell in this area. It’s density and economic output is unrivaled in the USA. 🇺🇸
One more thing.
Some of you hate me. Don’t. I have stopped believing in the leftist nonsense. I’m the American dream. Worked hard. Did the right thing. Was rewarded. Yes, I’m not some neurologist, but I’m happy where I ended up and my role in contributing to current and future society.
We don’t hate you. It’s just that your mere existence is a major affront to any Thinking Man.
For the file marked the more things change, the more they stay the same….plus it’s just a really neat artifact….
https://historical.ha.com/itm/political/henry-clay-fabulous-and-important-the-same-old-coon-campaign-flag/a/6191-43062.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515
For the IB IT guys….trying to keep it short, no need for treatise….
You guys know I’m as empathetic to your situation as anyone on this board…so please take this as helpful advice and nothing more…
Get out while you still can. Reinvent yourself doing whatever is necessary, even if it means a step back longer term it’s likely worth it…
IB has always been about proximity to revenue. Financially, nothing else mattered. Any Group Head would sell his family down the river to keep his top producers. They are the ones who keep the ship afloat for everyone. Everything and everyone else is expendable, in direct proportion to proximity to revenue, including other ‘producers’ in revenue generating centers. That includes individuals on major revenue generating teams. No one is safe.
So if this has always been the case what’s changed now? The sector has moved to systemic decline. Used to be there were cyclical ups and downs in an expanding sector which provided the ability to ‘smooth’ out spending (ie, compensation) year to year. No longer.
You guys – respectfully and through no fault of your own – are now ensconced in a cost center with little relative proximity to revenue in a sector with a high fixed cost base, slowing revenue growth, and in systemic decline while the industry is in an unprecedented expansion. How does it get better from here?
Seriously, if you think you’re miserable and undercompensated now wait until the next downturn…Reinvent yourself. I know it’s not easy. I know it may mean a step back. But if you have another ten years or so in the workforce do yourselves a favor and get out.
Pumps, you go back to work Tuesday. Give the board a break. It’s a holiday weekend.
As a person who needs to triage those who have been whacked, you are sending the correct message……. hopefully people will listen…. have a good weekend…..
left, still admiring the view says:
August 31, 2019 at 10:11 am
For the IB IT guys….trying to keep it short, no need for treatise….
You guys know I’m as empathetic to your situation as anyone on this board…so please take this as helpful advice and nothing more…
Get out while you still can. Reinvent yourself doing whatever is necessary, even if it means a step back longer term it’s likely worth it…
IB has always been about proximity to revenue. Financially, nothing else mattered. Any Group Head would sell his family down the river to keep his top producers. They are the ones who keep the ship afloat for everyone. Everything and everyone else is expendable, in direct proportion to proximity to revenue, including other ‘producers’ in revenue generating centers. That includes individuals on major revenue generating teams. No one is safe.
So if this has always been the case what’s changed now? The sector has moved to systemic decline. Used to be there were cyclical ups and downs in an expanding sector which provided the ability to ‘smooth’ out spending (ie, compensation) year to year. No longer.
You guys – respectfully and through no fault of your own – are now ensconced in a cost center with little relative proximity to revenue in a sector with a high fixed cost base, slowing revenue growth, and in systemic decline while the industry is in an unprecedented expansion. How does it get better from here?
Seriously, if you think you’re miserable and undercompensated now wait until the next downturn…Reinvent yourself. I know it’s not easy. I know it may mean a step back. But if you have another ten years or so in the workforce do yourselves a favor and get out.
Pumps makes 66k a year as a social studies teacher so his wife must be the bread winner to afford his highway house.
We just whacked 300, all back office and IT going over to India, most did not see it coming. I warned people, most were too complacent.
My advice, “revenue producing, client facing”.
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Juice as someone who has 100 people working for him in India, good luck with that. The banks are run by absolute morons who then hire companies like the one I work for to fix their mess. India is overplayed at this point, talent is too hard to get there, I have some great people there but an awful lot are pretty bad.
Left to add to that banks have been in the process of commoditizing IT for the last 20 years. If you are going to stay in the sector be specialized, revenue producing is important if you make the tools that help the money makers make the money you are going nowhere, your money is safe. Again when the risk was huge obama fines banks would open the wallet to have a better chance at timely delivery. Banks are hopelessly behind technically speaking modernization and cloud projects are all the rage. If you have expertise in cloud which will literally save millions vs internal infrastructure you can get paid. Amazon is getting $300-$400 an hour for solutions architects and you have to wait months to get one, they are sending you out to outside companies at this point. Don’t do cobol or java which I call 21st century cobol. The banks use that stuff enmasse and as such India moved heavily in those areas. Try to find Scala or Kotlin or Go developers on the cheap, you can’t…..
Jcer- I know the deal when it comes to outsource this isn’t my first rodeo but when Accenture comes along with their polished presentations and pitches massive cost saving to the C-Suite what can you do?
We have our own development office in India for a few years now, like most of these shops little development and mostly busy work doing test, QA and data entry, they are also angling to take over most IT Operations, and that is what we are trying to fill now with the latest job action.
I have moved into a sector of IT that requires real credentials and experience to be considered and thankfully most companies are not taking chances hiring people with no experience to do the work, but like anything it can and will eventually be outsourced and automated to a degree. Lots of start ups I deal with now trying to do just that. I think I can make it to retirement doing this, not sure but there is a chance since I work directly with the decision makers, legal, finance etc.
My plan B is to go work for the VC in the family. I have turned them down before, the job will require faster-pased life of travel and being away from my wife and kids all the time which I don’t want to do but will if I have too.
As far as cloud it reminds me of the days of Oracle and IBM consultants I used to know, they are all doing something else now and it isn’t IT work.
My better half is on the sell side of an IB so no worries there 20+ year career and all, if we both got canned tomorrow it won’t be a stretch in the short run but longer term who knows especially if there is a recession.
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