C19 Open Discussion Week 21c

More than a million more Americans lost their jobs last week, and we’re celebrating these numbers as good news? Because initial claims fell? The US is still losing jobs at an alarming pace, NJ still losing jobs at an alarming rate. Even worse, these new applicants aren’t going to be eligible for any additional stimulus payments.

From NJ.com:

New unemployment claims in N.J. reach lowest levels of pandemic

New claims for unemployment benefits last week reached their lowest levels since the coronavirus and efforts to fight its spread began putting New Jerseyans out of work en masse in March.

Another 16,573 New Jersey workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development. That’s down from more than 28,000 the week prior and well below March and April, when more than 200,000 workers were filing new claims weekly.

Nearly 1.5 million workers in the Garden State have filed unemployment claims since March 15. Of those, 1.3 million have been deemed eligible for benefits and 96% of eligible workers have received some payment, the Labor Department said in its weekly claims report.

New Jersey’s unemployment rate, 16.2 percent, is at the highest level since record keeping began in 1976.

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111 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 21c

  1. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Manhattan apartment deals plunge 57%, suburban real estate surges

    Apartment contracts in Manhattan fell by more than half in July, while deals in many New York suburbs more than doubled, showing a continued flight from the city over the summer.

    The number of signed contracts for co-ops and condos in Manhattan — the best real-time measure of activity — dropped 57% in July compared with a year ago, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. The high-end of the market is getting especially hard hit, with co-ops priced at $4 million to $10 million down over 75%.

    As deals dry up, the number of apartments listed for sale is surging. New apartment listings jumped by 8% in July compared with a year ago. The number of unsold apartments is now at the highest level in almost a decade, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. At the current sales rate, there is more than a 17-month supply of apartments for sale — more than twice the typical Manhattan average of about eight months.

    “The city is less of an anchor now,” he said. “It’s going to take longer for the city to recover than the suburbs.”

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Day 4, no power. Gas cans have become my life. A tree fell, scraping the house, taking a gutter, window trim on a few, shredded screens, all in all got lucky. I had another tree fall in a storm three months ago, took 24 feet of fence, barely scraping the garage. As for this fiasco, not a utility truck to be found.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Suburban real estate is nuts right now. Redone cape up my street listed for $599. We were aghast to learn the price as the thing is a shoebox. I believe it’s already under contract.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Remember when this entire board laughed at me for this prediction. Now they laugh at me when I say but Manhattan real estate if you can, because it’s going to come roaring back in time. Buy when there is blood in the streets…that was the burbs for a while, now it’s the city’s turn.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 7, 2020 at 7:38 am
    Suburban real estate is nuts right now. Redone cape up my street listed for $599. We were aghast to learn the price as the thing is a shoebox. I believe it’s already under contract.

  5. juice box says:

    Anecdotal but everyone I know in NYC at desk of a large investment bank that rents is not renewing their lease, and have moved home to mom and dads or have left the city permanently. The moving trucks are only going one direction these days and that is out of NYC.

  6. AJ says:

    As I said last week, once the CARES money is gone, Unemployment claims will drop.
    Lots of people, companies, unions gaming the system for that $600/wk.

  7. AJ says:

    Also, depending on how a companies payroll week is structured, some could still get the $600 last week. We should see an additional drop next week.

  8. Juice box says:

    Re gas cans, a cheap siphon from the auto part store might be easier, fill up two cars and drain from gas tank, it means allot less trips.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, and enough people leave, the city becomes more desirable. Then, like lemmings, they all come marching back driving up the price to new highs. This doesn’t happen over night, it takes time. Right now, lemming are marching to the burbs in favor of cheaper real estate till they drive it up to new highs….wash, rinse, repeat…

    Apply this same mindset to stocks.

    juice box says:
    August 7, 2020 at 7:58 am
    Anecdotal but everyone I know in NYC at desk of a large investment bank that rents is not renewing their lease, and have moved home to mom and dads or have left the city permanently. The moving trucks are only going one direction these days and that is out of NYC.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Thanks for the tip.

  11. 1987 Condo says:

    Jobs: + 1.8 million

    U/E: 10.2

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Now you know why stocks didn’t drop. Everyone knows this economic drop was self induced. It wasn’t from lack of demand or supply.

    It’s going to come roaring back once that virus is gone. So why would you sell your positions? Just hold and wait, this is a long term game and that’s how it’s being played by the big boys.

    1987 Condo says:
    August 7, 2020 at 8:31 am
    Jobs: + 1.8 million

    U/E: 10.2

  13. Vornado says:

    Right now, lemming are marching to the burbs in favor of cheaper real estate

    Right, pandemic has nothing to do with it.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, people that were going to leave, were always going to leave.

    Vornado says:
    August 7, 2020 at 8:39 am
    Right now, lemming are marching to the burbs in favor of cheaper real estate

    Right, pandemic has nothing to do with i

  15. leftwing says:

    “Anecdotal but everyone I know in NYC at desk of a large investment bank that rents is not renewing their lease, and have moved home to mom and dads…”

    No reason to be in the city especially if you are in a role like IB analyst.

    My 20-something has his 1BR dead center in a (not NY) city. Zero happening. Every reason you move to a city center is gone….restaurants, bars, cultural events, concerts, etc. Why hang out alone in a 800 ft2 box when you are WFH anyway and can work from home with dad’s manse, patio, firepit and maybe pool right outside the door.

    Young IBers will pile back in once offices reopen. The only way to handle an 80+ hour workweek is to be able to roll out of bed and in as little time as possible be at the office. Commutes don’t work.

  16. 3b says:

    Juice So they are fleeing from Manhattan, and I assume JC and Hoboken, then if it’s back to the office in some form, these same people are going to be on crowded commuter trains and buses, and then subways and PATH, but when they lived in the cities, they could walk, Uber, bike ride, or ferry to their jobs in the city. Go figure!

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    Alas, two utility trucks spotted on the edge of my neighborhood. Crew is sipping coffee, phone surfing with mirrored shades in place while sitting inside the cabs.

  18. Bystander says:

    A smart person might consider that we could be entering a phase of germ warfare in the world rather than banking on NYC real estate samo samo. First world instability is quite favorable for the power grabbers.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We are talking about people buying suburban homes…not people with second homes.

    Vornado says:
    August 7, 2020 at 9:40 am
    https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/cuomo-wealthy-residents-should-leave-hamptons-return-to-nyc/

    What’s he begging for? They were going to leave anyway

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s a trend to count NYC out when it hits peak cycle and goes negative. This isn’t the first time, and it won’t be the last time. I’ll take the side of the bet that has been right 100% for over 200 years.

    Bystander says:
    August 7, 2020 at 9:31 am
    A smart person might consider that we could be entering a phase of germ warfare in the world rather than banking on NYC real estate samo samo. First world instability is quite favorable for the power grabbers.

  21. hobojoe says:

    Re gas cans, a cheap siphon from the auto part store might be easier, fill up two cars and drain from gas tank
    This is a good idea but check first – some newer cars have a little check valve to keep fuel from spilling out in a rollover. Can make it hard to get the siphon in.

    I’ve seen lots of moving OUT of Hoboken. Can’t tell about moving in, there definitely is activity that direction but places are sitting longer, asking rents dropped $150-$200 per month after vacant 2-3 months to get someone in. Previously turnaround time was often less than a month.

    LOTS and LOTS of storefront vacancies on Washington St., I’ve never seen this many in all my time here; this was already heading in that direction before this all hit due to insane rent increases by landlords chasing existing stores out, double-whammy now. For a while it was near 100% occupancy, no more.

  22. Libturd says:

    JCer (from yesterday),

    I went with PIA instead of Windscribe after my trial with Windscribe was a little slow. I think I paid $32 for the year. Only the slightest drop in bandwidth and the service is excellent and bulletproof. It has the most amazing ad blocker which probably makes up for the lost bandwidth. The only caveat, about 10% of retail sites require you log in from an American server to access their American site. Lots of time I login from Canada since the Toronto PIA server is lightning fast. There is a snooze button on the PIA app which I often use to get around the issue too.

    I am super happy with the way it works and it supports torrents and streaming and all of the other questionable junk.

  23. homeboken says:

    “what people don’t know, is that unlike the African American community, with notable exceptions, the Lation community is an incredibly diverse community”

    Joe Biden – 8.6.20 Yahoo News

    This guy is the worst kind of racist. He actually believes he has the best interests of those he insults. That statement form Joe is the very definition of white privilege.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    Had not used my PIA at home for a while, only used at work as Windscribe was blocked there. I communicate with my lawyer so it was necessary.

    PIA for the longest time did not block ads that Windscribe did, so I set up a 1 year plan so have both.

    Great to know it works, I just tried it. Now I don’t have to renew Windscribe as I still have a year left on PIA.

    Thanks.

  25. Libturd says:

    Couple of things.

    My hurricane call ended up sucking, albeit it was made two days before the storm went overland. Two things changed. First, I was right that it was really fast moving and that the storm wouldn’t drop that much rain. But it moved even faster than I expected not allowing the storm to lose as much strength as it would have if it moved more slowly. Second, the path was originally projected to go directly over NYC. It ended up going up the western border of NJ so we got the dangerous northeast quadrant of the hurricane which is where the winds are the worst. If you are in the storm and the majority of the winds are blowing westerly, you will get the worst brunt of the storm.

    We lost power pretty early. I ran out, hooked up my generator, ran the extension cords to everything that needed power and we got our power back as I attached the last device. This seems to happen every time I hook up my generator. So I wrap up all the cables and put it all away and the power goes back out (it’s now getting sunny out, so I figure another quick fix is coming. I wait until 7pm and we are still without power. So I set the generator up again, this time she’s only running on full choke. She turn off immediately when I close the choke even the slightest bit. The problem is, it’s dark and I’m too lazy to futz around with it. At 10pm, she putters out with 3/4s a tank of gas intact. At this point PSE&G is saying power will be restored on Sunday. I had to drive Junior to ice hockey practice and there are so many trees down that it was like the microburst we had about ten years ago. This ravaged the town budget in Montclair. So they will have to deal with the cost of the storm on top of the lost revenue. Good times ahead, including replacing the carb on my generator. They have them on AlliExpress for $5. I sprung for a quality build on Amazon for $15 so I don’t have to wait a month for it. I’m sure my gas was too old, even with the Stabil. That gas is now in our cars. I refilled it, Wednesday morning with fresh gas and she runs a little better, but I can tell the carb is all gummed up by the sound it’s making and the fact it can’t handle much of a load.

    Well my brother calls and says his Cape May beach house is available so we pack up a cooler of what is valuable in the fridge and head down on Wednesday morning. This WFH thing is never going to last. So we are enjoying ourselves in a million dollar beachfront condo now. Power came back up last night, which should be soon enough to save the $500 of meat in the chest freezer. Also, should keep my Intex pool from getting too much algae as it can go about 48 hours without the filter running and still stay relatively clean.

    Life is good.

    Going to go up to AC on Saturday for Gordon Ramsey Steak poolside (extremely Covid safe and separated) as the place is rented next week, and will shoot home Sunday morning.

  26. Libturd says:

    Cool Phoenix. It’s really been exactly what I was looking for. I have quite a few friends in hardcore security IT roles and they all said PIA is probably the best for the average user. Not the best for a newbie or a pro, but ideal for the middle.

  27. Libturd says:

    30-year,

    That flip on Stephens would have had us as close neighbors. Though that house was done beautifully, I thought the layout was really weird. Lots of strange unusable nooks everywhere you looked. Too many stairs everywhere as well. Great block though. Can’t believe what that place went for. Flip over on corner of Watchung and Grove, never sold and is now renting for over 6K. It’s ludicrous. That house is a terrible location and you can’t get out of the driveway without a flagman.

  28. AJ says:

    Zillow stock way up today. All time highs.

  29. Fabius Maximus says:

    I got a crazy deal on NordVPN last year. It was around $70 for 3 years. I have no complaints.

    Lib, that sounds like a clogged jet. 15 mins with a needle and a can of Carb cleaner and you’ll be back in business. Here’s a quick video.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k-iGkPiJ5U

    I had to do it last night with my backup Generac. Half our town is out so I sent two of my three out to people running medical equipment.

    If you ran it long enough on the choke you may need a new spark plug. If not a new one at least clean the carbon off it.

  30. 3b says:

    Lib: Glad you and your family are enjoying it!

  31. leftwing says:

    “They’re not coming back right now. And you know what else they’re thinking? ‘If I stay there, I’ll pay a lower income tax,’ because they don’t pay the New York City surcharge,” [Cuomo] added, noting the wealthiest 1 percent of the Empire State’s population picks up roughly 50 percent of the state’s tax…”

    From the Cuomo article ‘begging people to come back to NYC….

    So, even the bluest of the blues acknowledge that 1% pay 50% of revenue…..but somehow come to the conclusion that the tax system is ‘unfair’ and the wealthy ‘aren’t paying their fair share’……

    Fcuk you, Blue. Burn it down.

  32. leftwing says:

    Hobo….you still live in Hoboken?

    If so, you mind giving a demographic range on age?

  33. Phoenix says:

    Just tried Windscribe again vs PIA on a add infested site, Daily Mail.

    Windscribe wins hands down for this.

    I like them both but for different reasons.

  34. Libturd says:

    On the pods. Not sure how the right wingers here have turned it into a left versus right argument. That’s just silly.

    Also, I’m not seeing this:

    “exhausted by the social activism of the school with its overriding agenda on LGBTQXYZ and every ‘-ism’ one could think of (and a few you never knew of).”

    They touch on it as they should. But it’s hardly taking the place of traditional subject matter. Go ahead and raise your kids without a knowledge and respect for trannies and they might end up with quite the surprise at their bachelor party.

    Yes, I am sure the media is saying otherwise. Pods are racist. Public schools do nothing but teach liberalism. In reality, both of these things are not true. Even in the ghetto, the caring parents will band together to figure out a way to get their kids a decent education, even if a mom does it.

    Finally, at the end of the day, everyone is in this together. If you want to homeschool, or pod school due to reducing Covid risk for whatever reason, it’s completely cool. But if you are doing it because of the fear of an inferior education for a year or so? Well I think you are being a little bit helicopterry. At the end of the day, we all know that colleges will take Covid into acceptance consideration and I would expect Pearson will dumb down their tests to compensate. I also think that as a society, we put way too much influence on what college our kids will attend. Almost like it’s a badge of honor. Education is certainly important. But it’s not the panacea many are making it out to be. Plenty of B students do just as well as A students. As a matter of fact, I read a study a ways back that proved that the top A group did poorer economically in life than the B group (don’t quite me on the exact grades/percentiles). This was due to the top group getting stuck in academia or in charitable/philanthropic work as the next rung down actually went for the money. Likewise, the C group did worse than the dropout group as the dropouts were the risk takers and the C group just plods along as they always have. It was a pretty interesting/revealing study. It’s also why I am having JR stay home first trimester. Then again, he is a self-learner, so I can get away with it.

    I’ve been screaming it from the rooftops since March. Our public educators should have been focused on little more than figuring out how to teach remotely more effectively. For example, many colleges are doing remote classes only, except for hands on classes such as lab sciences which will be physically distanced.

    BRT, as an honors teacher, I get where you are coming from. I also don’t disagree with your assessment that it’s going to stink if it’s starts remote and finishes in person. Yeah, it’s really really dumb. Sort of like what our hockey club is planning to get around the no spectators at tournaments. They are planning on getting a camera in to all the games (if they don’t have LiveBarn-that does this already). Then we will all gather around one TV in a hotel. So cramming 50 people in the same room watching a TV rather than spread out around the 200 yard circumference of a hockey rink makes more sense. We’ll opt out and will just watch a tape. I suggested they just stream the video to Facebook Live or even quicktime allows it and everyone can watch on their phones, but I guess they are the experts.

  35. Phoenix says:

    “Too many stairs everywhere as well. ”

    Add more stairs to your house said the orthopedic surgeon.

  36. Phoenix says:

    “Our public educators should have been focused on little more than figuring out how to teach remotely more effectively.”

    With Masters degrees most don’t know the difference between a router, a modem, and a switch.

    They are good at hanging artwork on the walls, however.

  37. ExEssex says:

    11:40 riiiight. I teach. I’ve got 11 in the Tech industry multiple IBM Certs., and two tech IPOs under my belt. What’s it matter? The real gist of online teaching are willing pupils and the ability of the teacher to make a connection with the student. In the end it’s the students who will have make their own way in this rapidly deteriorating world.

  38. Phoenix says:

    “In the end it’s the students who will have make their own way in this rapidly deteriorating world.”

    What did pumpy say, let the kids learn the way I did, school of hard knocks or something like that?

    Guess that’s the common theme.

    And ex, no one is doubting your credentials or abilities. But I still bet 90 percent of the teachers in my school district are as I described, along with the administrators. If there were not a tech person in the school they could not troubleshoot a projector.

  39. leftwing says:

    “On the pods. Not sure how the right wingers here have turned it into a left versus right argument. That’s just silly.”

    These days EVERYTHING is political, particularly anything dealing with meaningful money and family. Pods cross both.

    And, I am only a ‘rightwinger’ to anyone dangling off the Leftist cliff…placement on the political spectrum is all relative….

    “But if you are doing it because of the fear of an inferior education for a year or so? Well I think you are being a little bit helicopterry.”

    Disagree here. On a good day public education is deficient academically. It’s obviously not going to improve under C19 remote learning. Most of the board agree – including our resident teachers – that the greatest contributing factor to individual classroom success is the household’s attitude toward academics. Why would any parent abdicate educational concerns in any environment, let alone this one?

    On the college name game, agree. As one who has put two similar but different students through ignore the name chase and find a place where your student will be happy, content, and reasonably academically challenged. The outcome works not just short term but also longer.

  40. leftwing says:

    Also, we just made the decision that our college sophomore will not participate in any way this upcoming semester, and likely next, at his university. No presence on campus, no hybrid, no remote. In conversations with him now about what the next 6-12 months are going to be like to advance him toward his goals at least as quickly as school would have….

  41. 3b says:

    Left: Why not the Spring semester if I may ask?

  42. leftwing says:

    Just making an assumption for our planning purposes that C19 will not be adequately resolved by Jan to allow normal functioning….

    If facts change soon, ie. real vaccine, we’ll likely pivot.

    Plus, as part of our deal with him, what we expect from him to move his needle appreciably would require more time than a few months….not looking for him to DoorDash for tips while taking a few CCM credits while home….need something more substantive

  43. ExEssex says:

    12:11 I’m pretty sure that we all share a degree of pessimism about the future and the school’s role in the whole affair. We know that unless we are paying big bucks for private school, the public schools have a stranglehold on the success or failure of our kids. Its that lack of control that we are used to and have accepted.

  44. ExEssex says:

    11:58 Thanks! No my point is more that you can have a grasp on technology but in the end it is the ability to connect emotionally and motivate which is going to create value for you and the student population.

  45. ExEssex says:

    I remember when I was in graduate school studying education in the early nineties.
    One statistics professor who was a causality expert announced to a large class that he was going to tell us a dirty secret and one that we might not want to hear.

    Schools, he said, are warehouses. Places where we keep kids safe and try to teach them something until they are of legal age. At that point, it’s up to them. Was it a bleak assessment? Definitely. Wrong? I am not so sure.

  46. ExEssex says:

    12:14 a lot of kids are scheduling a ‘gap ‘year’. Why waste time and resources on half-baked distance learning plans at full cost from the Universities? Why pay housing and activity fees for a school during that year.

  47. Nomad says:

    https://www.profgalloway.com/the-great-distancing

    The Great Distancing
    August 7, 2020
    Scott Galloway

    @profgalloway
    America’s involvement in WWII lasted 3 years and 9 months, and 405,399 Americans perished (297 per day). US forces have been fighting in Afghanistan for 19 years, and we’ve lost 2,285 servicemembers (1 every 3 days). In WWII almost a third of fruits and vegetables were harvested from “Victory Gardens” planted in people’s backyards. You couldn’t find chocolate or nylons. Diapers and food staples were rationed, and you could be kicked off a plane to make room for servicemen.

    Despite the formidable financial stress of wartime, households were asked to dig deeper and buy war bonds. Within three weeks of Dec. 7, 1941 Ford, Fisher Auto Parts, and Goodyear Rubber were turning out B-24 and B-25 bombers, using fabricated auto parts. Kelvinator, which made refrigerators, was told by the government to stop and start making propellers and army helmets.

    Fast forward to 2020: Americans don’t want to wear masks and expect the government to send them more money. We’ve been unable to produce cotton swabs and personal protective equipment. Most Covid tests still take 5-7 days to yield results, while other countries have had rapid tests since March.

    Since the first recorded US case in January, we have lost 159,588 Americans, or 806 people a day. The economic cost of the stimulus will likely surpass the conflict that reshaped the world order. However, we’re not spending this unprecedented amount of money on fighting the enemy, but ensuring the NASDAQ (the net worth of the wealthy) doesn’t decline. Our leadership seems to think a return to school should be doable even though our Covid-19 testing is extremely slow and below need. University leadership is convinced the virus received the memo that the nobility and business model of education should be an immunity, cauterizing spread.

    We have a forest fire and are borrowing trillions from future generations to Venmo people sitting at home as the inferno in their neighbor’s yard rages. Personal income was 7.3% higher in Q2 versus Q1 because of stimulus payments and extra unemployment benefits. The personal savings rate hit a historic 33% in April, the highest by far since the department started tracking in the 1960s. Do the 89% of people who still have their job need additional stimulus? It appears, as is the case the last several decades, that the only bipartisan action is reckless spending that flattens the curve for rich people while throwing some funds at the neediest for optics.

    And the enemy marches on.

    Donald Trump was right, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were mistakes. Mistakes that cost us almost 7,000 American souls, 208,102 Iraqi and 111,000 Afghan civilian lives, and $1.9 trillion (inflation adjusted). But Covid-19 will register an even greater toll of American blood and treasure. The response to the novel coronavirus would have been swifter and more disciplined if the pathogen had brown skin and worshiped a different god. Americans can’t seem to wrap their head around an enemy 10,000 times smaller than the width of human hair…

  48. leftwing says:

    “Why waste time and resources on half-baked distance learning plans at full cost from the Universities? Why pay housing and activity fees…”

    There’s the cost/return aspect and it is a topic of discussion amongst friends…

    By definition any decision is highly personal, each young adult is different….For me and my student as we sat down and sketched out what his average day would entail it wasn’t pretty…sounds like a jail term was his comment….entirely aside from the financial aspect IMO attending under the circumstances would be very unhealthy for him…I don’t believe many of these students have actually thought out what their day (and evenings, and weekend evenings) are really going to look like. Too many of them are getting cabin fever at home (and butting heads with mom and dad over freedoms) so they just want to get out and back to school where they ‘can do what they want’. The colleges, I believe they will find out, are going to be more restrictive in movement and activities than mom and dad. I suspect more than one local parent will be receiving a call from a school’s disciplinary committee on their offspring breaking some rules for otherwise normal activities with consequences. Different times…..

  49. leftwing says:

    Nomad, I like Galloway. One of my regular reads.

    Politicians – and I use that term intentionally rather than ‘our leaders’ – have for too long played to and then fed a sound bite culture.

    DJT (and arguably RR, WJC, and BO) are just signposts along that pathway. Trump is not an aberration, he is a logical conclusion. Hopefully at least…because we likely still have further to go on this path.

    Anyone who believes electing Biden is an endpoint without a fundamental change in sound bite culture – which is the opposite of what is occurring – is delusional.

  50. Bystander says:

    Ahh, Donald was right. Bush started the mess and Obama had to clean it up. Now, born on third Donald tells us it was wrong. What a visionary leader.

    “Donald Trump was right, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were mistakes”

  51. Juice box says:

    A million plus unemployed and Giant falloff on tax recipients and senior homeowners say FU pay me.

    https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/08/restore-property-tax-cuts-for-seniors-opinion.html

  52. ExEssex says:

    This just in: According to an email sent by Harvard and as reported in The Chronicle of Higher Education this morning, 340 first-year students have chosen to defer. Using estimates from Harvard’s reported class of 2023 – which counted 1,650 matriculates – this means that roughly 20% of first-year students have deferred from the top-ranked university in the country. Harvard had also anticipated 40% of their undergraduate population choosing to live on campus; they now expect only 25% based on the number of students who have accepted the invitation to do so. If these are the numbers for Harvard, it’s going to be a wild roller-coaster ride for higher education this year.

  53. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’ve been screaming it from the rooftops since March. Our public educators should have been focused on little more than figuring out how to teach remotely more effectively. For example, many colleges are doing remote classes only, except for hands on classes such as lab sciences which will be physically distanced.

    Teaching isn’t that hard. An effective teacher just needs a whiteboard to work effectively. All of my teaching outside of the demos and running online labs was done with a camera, xerox paper, and colored markers. That’s not the major problem.

    The major issue is how do you hold students responsible for their work. It’s nearly impossible when they aren’t in person. You can’t test them individually because they are all in digital contact with each other. The one aspect of in person instruction is that you can actually figure out on the fly who understand it and who doesn’t. Working in real time in person is the best method of scanning the classroom. At this point, I’m leaning towards letting the kids all take their quizzes and tests with a partner to level the playing field.

  54. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    If I were a college student or had a kid in college, I would not be going to college this fall. IMO, it’s substandard. As a parent of a 6 and 8 year old, I plan on sending them in person, and supplementing it with at home. My wife and I have tried to have my kids at minimum, 1 year ahead on math, reading, and English through at home lessons. My main goal is to ensure there are no gaps in their education that I know will exist all throughout the majority of the population from all of this.

  55. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    1 more thing. Based on the available data, our district is having k-5 be in school everyday. There is very little (almost none) evidence that kids of this age are able to transmit this disease.

    6-12 grades will be on an alternating schedule A-K one day, L-Z another. Kids of this age are capable of transmitting the disease so this makes the socially distant classroom easier to achieve. Without lunch, gym, and all kids in the hallway simultaneously (we plan on dismissing them one grade at a time), the super spreading virus factory that school usually is will be minimized. I fully expect some kid to test positive and us to have to shut down school periodically. I can even see us shutting down in a month like December just out of precaution.

  56. Libturd says:

    College isn’t worth it for most on a non-Covid year. I too wouldn’t waste my money on it and instead my rising Freshman would have to do some serious independent study to this off year with a hell of a lot of working of any variety.

  57. joyce says:

    “What this appears to be is a police officer flexing his ability to charge someone notwithstanding the fact that he cannot establish the elements of the crime.”

    https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/8/6/21355999/twitter-cyber-harassment-felony-charges-police-protests-retweet

  58. juice box says:

    Early morning dog walk, I can still hear a few generators humming around town.

  59. Grim says:

    Have your bright high school kids or stay-home grads start lining up their tutoring jobs.

    The market is hot.

  60. Phoenix says:

    Joyce,
    What do you expect in NJ…

  61. homeboken says:

    Heating Pelosi presser about stimulus very 4, she says that if the Dems give up a trillion, and the GOP adds a trillion, then they will be within range to make a deal.

    We have reached peak clown world. We negotiate with trillions as if they are Nicole’s and dimes. Do we not realize that without massive budget cuts, it will take is 100+ years to pay back the 1st trillion of our debt?

    The GOP is just had spend crazy, it’s not partisan. But the disregard for their constituents pocket is disgusting.

  62. homeboken says:

    Very- version.

  63. Phoenix says:

    “Do we not realize that without massive budget cuts, it will take is 100+ years to pay back the 1st trillion of our debt?”

    Why should they care? They aren’t going to live long enough to have to pay it back anyway.

  64. homeboken says:

    https://www.instagram.com/tv/CDm_CNZBxX1/?igshid=1qccci0s25vsa

    This video is 4 mins long. It discusses Millburn HS reaction to a yearbook photo that the Principal, who wrote a letter to his community, felt the need to apologize for.

    The picture, taken Oct 2019, shows the Millburn HS football team carrying a USA flag and a USA flag with a thin blue line. The picture was taken during a school celebration of the DARE program.

    This principal appears to me, to be totally tone deaf on the climate of his community. Again, this isn’t Portland, OR. Millburn NJ.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    None of us will. It will never be paid back in full. It will always be knocked down to manageable levels by inflation. Then built up again.

    Phoenix says:
    August 8, 2020 at 6:34 am
    “Do we not realize that without massive budget cuts, it will take is 100+ years to pay back the 1st trillion of our debt?”

    Why should they care? They aren’t going to live long enough to have to pay it back anyway.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon

    The Federal Reserve is completing a yearlong policy review and is expected to announce the results soon.

    One big change would be a harder commitment to getting inflation higher, through a pledge not to raise rates until it hits at least 2%.

    Markets have been betting on higher inflation, with surging gold prices, a falling dollar and a rush to inflation-indexed bonds.”

    https://apple.news/AHccNEO-jS4i-y75g3zDyMQ

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cities aren’t going anywhere…

    “In this video, McKinsey experts describe how high-rise buildings might change in the coming decade—and how construction and real-estate companies should evolve.
    Envisioning the future of the high-rise, Aliza Dzik, Jennifer Kilian, Jan Mischke, Aditya Sanghvi, and Gernot Strube discuss what it will be like to build, manage, or occupy one in 2030. An edited transcript of their remarks follows.”

    https://apple.news/AaLJzmY00MIywKmsdtDOTjA

  68. joyce says:

    No surprise here or elsewhere. It’s not a new tactic either. This bullish!t incident went all the way: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/community/west-ada/article71650352.html. When jury wouldn’t convict (mistrial), they still made him plea to something else in order to drop the felony count. Heroes, all of them.

    Phoenix says:
    August 8, 2020 at 6:07 am
    Joyce,
    What do you expect in NJ…

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Mr. Housel, 36 years old, is a blog­ger and ven­ture cap­i­tal­ist who writes beau­ti­fully and wisely about a cen­tral truth: Money isn’t pri­mar­ily a store of value. Money is a con­duit of emo­tion and ego, car­ry­ing hopes and fears, dreams and heart­break, con­fi­dence and sur­prise, envy and re­gret.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-you-know-the-difference-between-being-rich-and-being-wealthy-11596808802?st=nhkdft6euffcbjp&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Mr. Housel be­gins with a shock­ing anec­dote he wit­nessed him­self: A tech­nol­ogy mul­ti­mil­lion­aire handed a ho­tel valet thou­sands of dol­lars in cash to go buy fist­fuls of gold coins at a nearby jew­elry store. The ex­ec­u­tive then flung the coins, worth about $1,000 apiece, into the Pa­cific Ocean one at a time, skip­ping them across the wa­ter like flat rocks, “just for fun.”

  71. 3b says:

    Homeboken: it’s crazy, and there are those who think it’s no big deal and it does not matter, but it does.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Over those seven decades, the Economic VIX ranged from roughly 0.2 to 3.4. (The index represents the standard deviation of quarterly annualized percentage changes in U.S. nominal GDP over the previous three years divided by the average annualized quarterly growth rate over those three years.) Mr. Paulsen expects the index to reach 13 in the coming months. Given the historical performance of stocks during periods of high economic volatility, that should make this a good time to invest in stocks, he says.

    But why do stocks perform so well when economic growth is highly volatile? “High Economic VIX signifies that the economy is in an unsustainable situation and everyone is working to improve it,” Mr. Paulsen says. The government typically rolls out emergency measures to help stabilize the economy, as both Congress and the Fed have during the current crisis. “Policy officials are scared to death, and they are bringing every conceivable tool they have to get us out of the situation,” Mr. Paulsen says. Meanwhile, companies cut costs and improve their finances. Those government and corporate efforts are “a powerful combination for growth,” he says, and that tends to be good for stocks.
    Another factor, Mr. Paulsen says, is that investors tend to pull money out of stocks as the economy begins to waver, as they did in the bear market we saw earlier this year. But eventually that accumulation of cash in investor hands builds to a point where it becomes powerful fuel for a potential market rebound, like the one we’ve seen over the past few months.

  73. homeboken says:

    3b – I agree but an important distinction for me: the principal is not elected, nor his he paid to give his political analysis. His job is to run the school.

    I’m more concerned with the fact that this principal effectively branded his yearbook and by extension, those students in the picture as insensitive to racism.

    The school does not need to take political positions. The principal making his letter open to the public takes a clear stand and was likely a response to a small but very vocal minority (# not race) of parents.

  74. 3b says:

    Home: not that I disagree, but I was commenting on your post about the debt. As for schools, all the more reason for school choice.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And there are those that know the debt will forever be carried over. You can’t pay it off without sucking out the growth of the economy. No one is going to take that option. The only option is to carry it over and create an environment where the debt is used to grow the economy and help pay off said debt.

    3b says:
    August 8, 2020 at 9:32 am
    Homeboken: it’s crazy, and there are those who think it’s no big deal and it does not matter, but it does.

  76. ExEssex says:

    People are sick and tired of the police.

  77. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I have a feeling the community of Millburn values their police force very much. It wasn’t long ago that the nation threw a fit about the father executed at the Short Hills mall parking deck for his SUV.

  78. Phoenix says:

    I guess all of the hours those mommies spent knitting used grocery bags together to keep the homeless warm was in vain. Yeah, that’s actually a thing. They do it in my town, then donate these worthless things in their Tahoes after their pedicures.

    The second one looks like a future cat lady.

  79. Phoenix says:

    Help homeless veterans. Yeah that’s what a veteran deserves after serving his country. Here sir, I know its 10 degrees out, but here is a plastic mat my mother knitted for you while sitting in her 4k sq ft house. Sorry about the leg you lost in Vietnam but hey, this will keep the other one comfortable…

    What this country does for it’s vets is terrible.

    https://alaforveterans.wordpress.com/2017/01/26/diy-make-plastic-sleeping-mats-for-homeless-veterans/

  80. Phoenix says:

    “https://www.nj.com/hunterdon/2020/08/judge-denies-dismissal-of-former-top-cops-whistleblower-lawsuit.html”

    True or not, who pays?

    As usual with these games, the taxpayer loses every single time.

  81. leftwing says:

    “Why should they care? They aren’t going to live long enough to have to pay it back anyway.”

    Pelosi may not live to see passage of a bill. What’s with her perma-scarf these days? Can’t be to cover the turkey neck, that’s been around for a decade. Surgical procedure?

    What a great two-fer that would be, she and RBG.

  82. leftwing says:

    https://nypost.com/2020/08/08/nyc-moms-fleeing-upper-west-side-amid-crime-and-chaos/

    And NBN, #hislifematters

    And his vote counts the same as yours…

    And it will likely be cast, thanks to some l1beral weasel b1tch on sabbatical filling out mail-in ballots.

  83. leftwing says:

    Two posts re: social activism in high schools in this thread….

    “Also, I’m not seeing [social activism of the school]…They touch on it as they should. But it’s hardly taking the place of traditional subject matter.”

    “This video…discusses Millburn HS reaction to a yearbook photo that the Principal, who wrote a letter to his community, felt the need to apologize for. The picture, taken Oct 2019, shows the Millburn HS football team carrying a USA flag and a USA flag with a thin blue line. The picture was taken during a school celebration of the DARE program.”

    And parents and students aren’t exhausted by this incessant bullsh1t?

  84. Vornado says:

    They were going to leave anyway.

    Not Bloomberg news says:
    August 8, 2020 at 10:54 am
    https://nypost.com/2020/08/08/nyc-moms-fleeing-upper-west-side-amid-crime-and-chaos/

    Rut roo

  85. leftwing says:

    Yeah not so sure on that…one born and bred on UWS, the other one a resident of 22 years with a gut renovated 4BR co-op…..

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…keep thinking the city will die. These people can leave, they will be replaced in time. The one mother is moving to NC? Like seriously? She will not last after living in the city for so long. Future divorce on the horizon as she annoys her working husband with how depressed she is with nothing to do.

    Vornado says:
    August 8, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    They were going to leave anyway.

  87. Vornado says:

    Left wing,
    It was sarcasm.

    Retard,
    This is why people do not like you. You invent strawman arguments to respond to and you also read 2+2 = 4 and respond with See I Told You It would be 5!!

  88. leftwing says:

    V, gotcha, polished off a bottle of nice bourbon last night with a couple friends. Little slow today lol.

  89. Phoenix says:

    The picture was taken during a school celebration of the DARE program.”
    Indoctrination ceremony.

    “They were going to leave anyway.” Without a doubt.

  90. NJCoast says:

    Power went off 4 times over a two hour period last night and again this morning after I had reset the clocks. Feels like when I was a kid growing up on St. Thomas, any little thing would knock off the power.

  91. Chicago says:

    Still waiting for power. I think we should get it in the next 8 hours or so. It’s been a long run since Tuesday 12:15 PM.

  92. Chicago says:

    Drank a magnum of JW Black since Thursday

  93. Nomad says:

    Phoenix,

    A couple of lower profile but great organizations supporting vets and their families:

    Travis Manion Foundation
    Hero’s on the water (2 NJ chapters)
    Children of fallen patriots

    Good movie documentary on Netflix: Soldier, Father, Son. Well done, very heavy. Shows the paid of vets and their families.

    You are right, we don’t take care of our vets. They should always be first in line and if other programs are cut to do this, so be it.

  94. leftwing says:

    “Still waiting for power. I think we should get it in the next 8 hours or so. It’s been a long run since Tuesday 12:15 PM.”

    JCPL truck just showed up on our cul-de-sac. Tree took out wires for the last four houses. No road obstruction.

    That had to be near last on their priority list….if you’re still waiting have to imagine they’ll be there soon.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How will Great Britain survive Brexit and prosper in a world solidifying into the three empire blocs of the U.S., China and the European Union? One answer is to realize the concept of the “Canzuk Union,” a vital first step on the way to a fully functioning Anglosphere.

    The Anglosphere is the name given to all those countries in the world where the majority of people speak English as their first language, almost all of which have similar outlooks and shared values. The four “Canzuk” countries of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. are a prominent historical subset of this larger group, and there is a mounting case that some form of federation among them—with free trade, free movement of people, a mutual defense organization and combined military capabilities—would create a new global superpower and ally of the U.S., the great anchor of the Anglosphere.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-time-to-revive-the-anglosphere-11596859260

  96. Juice Box says:

    re: “Drank a magnum”

    Slowing down in your old age I see.

  97. Phoenix says:

    ‘China virus relief’
    Trump first announced an order that would allow employers to defer payroll tax through the end of the year.

    The second order included a freeze on evictions that will allow hard-hit renters to remain in their homes even if they can’t afford payments.

    A third order, perhaps the most crucial, will extend the unemployment benefits that have run out, offering people an additional $400 per week – down from the $600 that was offered under the initial benefits plan.

    The fourth and final order will extend the suspension of student loan payments through the end of the year.

  98. JCer says:

    BRT on Millburn, they are richer and less Woke than the people in Maplewood, South Orange, West Orange and Montclair. Many specifically chose Millburn for it’s whiteness, I would expect this BS not to go over well with the folks there.

    The truth is in all the aforementioned communities the police force is VERY important, there is enough wealth that the people up the hill from Irvington, East Orange, Orange, and Newark have to worry about people coming to burglarize, steal cars out of driveways, etc. BRT there have been more than a few Range Rovers stolen out of driveways, a few years ago there was an armed home invasion in Millburn over by Wyoming Ave. There is a reason it is relatively safe and robberies are rare, I bought my house in Maplewood from a lunatic who had well over $100k worth of high art(Sculptures, original paintings, etc one piece my realtor asked about and we looked it up he paid 30k for a single sculpture) in the house and no locks on the windows nor an alarm. If the criminal element thought they could get away with it they know where the money is, typically you’ve got a Range Rover, Mercedes, BMW in the driveway a bunch of cash and jewelry in the house maybe some artwork. I’m a pretty modest person and even if I were robbed between a few nice wrist watches and the wife’s jewelry street value has to be at least 15-20k. To a criminal in the hood that’s a tremendous amount of money. Most of my neighbors probably have more in their homes….. But this over here is wokey, mcwokeville even my wife who is fairly liberal was like can we ban these signs it’s a blight, every house has a BLM, a Pride, and a Biden sign and lets not forget the Jr graduating “insert school here”. Frankly I don’t understand how these people can support someone who is bent on destroying them but that is a topic for another day….

  99. Phoenix says:

    Jcer,
    You are surrounded. Patience my friend….

  100. Juice Box says:

    A teacher from Millburn,married to a friend works on Odydsey. Amazing results in tha ttown when the parents are committed to education.

    https://patch.com/new-jersey/millburn/millburn-odyssey-mind-team-takes-world-championship

  101. ExEssex says:

    milburn is precariously close to some very nasty areas.

  102. 3b says:

    Ex Lots of areas in NJ border on nasty areas.

  103. ExEssex says:

    Agreed, that’s one social experiment i’m Happy to opt out of.
    Look honey how woke we are! (Stabbing sound)

  104. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Millburn takes academic competition to the next level, even beyond the rest of the “top rated schools”. IMO, it’s probably the most competitive. The only problem with that is it becomes a high stress environment. In addition, your child can get diluted in a sea of talent. Although, if your kid graduated from there taking rigorous courses, he/she is likely going to walk all over the competition at college. It’s a trade off.

  105. Chicago says:

    No power. JCP&L arrived. Communicated that repairs were completed. All of us responded no. They spent about 2 hours trying to figure out the problem then gave up and left. We have no clue what comes next.

  106. Grim says:

    Underground utilities?

  107. leftwing says:

    That stinks chi.

    So for our neighbors at the end of the street the tree truck comes followed by more power trucks….i’m picking up storm debris outisde and the cherry picker right in front of me rips out my neighbor’s (and nearly my) verizon wire that runs across the street…

    Neighbor is beside himself, not optimistic on when he’ll see verizon………

  108. Walking says:

    When I took a college real estate course back in the early 90’s my professor and his brother were renovating a home to flip in Maplewood. Unfortunately a neighbor from Irvington stopped by to umm borrow some tools. In the struggle for the tools his brother was killed.

  109. JCer says:

    walking it is amazing how quickly it goes from very nice to third world country……

    It’s a nice town but too liberal and woke for it’s own good. Even in maplehood property values have gone way up and full on gentrification is underway. I fully expect regardless of race the over all socio-economic demographic is on the up swing. Your professor was onto something besides the unfortunate tool struggle it would have been a good investment.

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