C19 Open Discussion Week 53

From NJ Best:

Trendy N.J. suburbs urbanites have their eye on thanks to the pandemic

New Jersey is hot. 

New Jersey real estate, that is. 

Close observers of the housing market in the Garden State eagerly pointed out areas and towns that are really smoking. 

All of Bergen and Essex counties for their proximity to New York, but especially Wykoff in Bergen County and Montclair and Glen Ridge in Essex County. 

All of Monmouth and Ocean counties — the Jersey Shore — but especially waterfront and water view properties. 

The heat wave extends west, to Morris County, especially Madison; to Hunterdon County, especially Tewksbury and Clinton; and even as far west as Sparta. In Union County, Westfield is in high demand. 

In the Trenton area, it’s West Windsor

In the Philadelphia suburbs, Cherry Hill — with a sale price up over 14% — and Willingboro — up 10.5% — are exceptional. 

“In Montclair and Glen Ridge, homes are selling for $100,000 to $200,000 above the asking price — big, older houses,” said Angela Sicoli, a Century 21 broker-owner and president of the New Jersey Association of Realtors

Recent sales statistics for Montclair show the median home price at $975,000, up almost 30% year over year, and buyers were paying 116% of the asking price. Montclair had 57 new home listings last August, considered an 18-month supply of inventory in normal times. 

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248 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 53

  1. Crushednjmillenial says:

    Low down payments. Low rates. Bidding wars.

    Is anyone confident that regulators have changed the law and other structural elements of the markets, as necessary, so that we don’t have a second Great Recession after cape cod’s start selling for $700k in blue ribbon towns ahead of the housing market and mortgage derivatives market explosion 2.0?

  2. Chicago says:

    Rip-off

  3. ExEssex says:

    Taxes are through the roof in IL and NJ.
    Obscene numbers.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I definitely think the pandemic widened the gap between the haves and the have-nots,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin (RDFN) “When I started in this business, there was a broad consensus around making the American dream accessible to middle- and lower-income people. After this year I now see housing as a luxury good.”

    https://apple.news/AaxGHYyKPRTe1GgyiwSIk3w

  5. Yo! says:

    Whoa those Montclair numbers are huuuge. Smartly, my family bought a house years ago. Fussy renters today must feel like total losers.

  6. 3b says:

    Anyone cheering this madness on is an idiot. It won’t end well, it never does. It is different this time; it’s worse. Then when it happens you will have all these crybaby homeowners crying they did not know , it’s not their fault.

  7. Phoenix says:

    Nearly 8,000 New Jersey police and firefighters could become eligible to retire with a pension sooner than expected.

    A bill (S1017) passed by the state Assembly and sent to Gov. Phil Murphy this week would allow public safety workers who reach 20 years of service within 25 months of the effective date of the bill to retire with a pension, regardless of their age.

    https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/03/why-some-nj-cops-and-firefighters-might-get-to-retire-early-with-pensions.html

  8. Fabius Maximus says:

    One for the music lovers out there. This rocks!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WBmEP2za8U

  9. BRT says:

    Apparently, it’s not just low rates and low downvpayments. It’s appraisal waivers as well. I’m sure that’s a good idea.

  10. BRT says:

    Can I just tokenize my house but still keep possession by renting it temporarily and then buy it back when the market crashes?

  11. grim says:

    Some cool stuff on linked housing bubbles from the Harvard Joint Center:

    https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/gregorschubert/files/schubert_jmp_jan16.pdf

  12. ExEssex says:

    WSJ – The editorial board fired back shortly after, writing in another article that read: “For someone who says we don’t matter, he sure spends a lot of time reading and responding to us. Thanks for the attention.”

    “What really seems to rankle the most famous resident of Mar-a-Lago isn’t his caricature of our policy differences,” the board continued. “It’s that we recognize the reality that Mr. Trump is the main reason Republicans lost two Georgia Senate races in January and thus the Senate majority. Mr. Trump refuses to take responsibility for those defeats, contrary to all evidence.”

    The paper noted that Trump lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden by 7 million votes and failed to win crucial Republican states.

    “Losing to Joe Biden of all people, and by 7.1 million votes as an incumbent President, must be painful. Counseling could be in order. Any good analyst will explain that the first step toward recovery is to accept reality. The same applies to Republican voters who want to win back Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024,” the board added.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    46 days, still no press conference.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All about the spillover. Market always working.

    Love the part that highlights how college educated individuals drive up the price forcing the lower earners to move out. North jersey is this. That’s why the poor have less and less options to live in north jersey. That’s why there is an affordable housing problem. They are competing with too many people that have more money than them, forcing them to leave for places like Pa, Fl, and the Carolinas.

    grim says:
    March 7, 2021 at 5:32 am
    Some cool stuff on linked housing bubbles from the Harvard Joint Center:

  15. 30 year realtor says:

    The Republicans are the party of Trump. In order to be an accepted member of the party one must subscribe to the big lie, that Trump won the election by a landslide and Biden stole the election via fraud. How is it possible that anyone can support a political party who’s core belief is based in a proven lie? How can people be so blind as to not see this suspension of reality as a clear and present danger?

  16. 30 year realtor says:

    Eddie,

    I am assuming you are aware that Trump went more than 6 months without a formal press conference at points during his administration. What is your point about Biden going 46 days?

  17. TraitorEddie NeedsHisLeroy says:

    30 yrs,

    Traitor Eddie is just using filler. His Putin loving behind can’t wait for Harris to become POTUS so he can use all types of words except N****R or Dot Head.

    My only concern is not drug addled future Texas resident nitwits like Eddie. But simply that Democrats, starting with the like of Manchin will screw up the pooch.

    The Trump Party is a fascist party. Their structure will make sure they win primaries, but lose the generals. Even the gerrymandering rigging done by the GOP in conservative state won’t help. Simply because a good part of the elites of the party, the lawyers that no one sees or talks about, that actually rig the process will work against Trump.

    More importantly big corporate money will flee the Trump Party and go into the Democrats. But that is the problem. The Dems won because of the younger progressive wing, that is an anathema to the Corporate Clinton wing that seems so entrenched in is operation.

    Already any attempt at Public Option or Medicare For All was replaced with more guaranteed profits to the big insurance oligopolies via bigger subsidies. They do this enough times and the younger wing of the party won’t show up to the elections, but Trump angry, older, bitter, green eyed full of envy nitwits boomers like Eddie will show up.

  18. 3b says:

    30 years: I think it’s interesting no press conference this period of time after Biden’s inauguration as it lends fuel to the fire that he is being closely monitored by his handlers as they are concerned what he might say or if he looks confused or out of it. Honest people whatever their politics I think can agree there is legitimate concern surrounding Biden and his mental capacity. Him not holding a press conference adds to the speculation. As for Trump and him going 6 months without one , true but in this case we are talking about the first press conference after the inauguration.

  19. 3b says:

    Pumps : If prices keep going up the way you want them to, you will push out all the NJ teachers too, as two teacher salaries won’t be able to afford the prices and taxes. Good thing you married up. Sad though that you appear to be gleeful about poor people being pushed out, but not surprising

  20. joyce says:

    I think Trump will pivot during the campaign and push for M4A.

    TraitorEddie NeedsHisLeroy says:
    March 7, 2021 at 10:17 am

  21. JoyceLovesCops says:

    Joyce,

    You might be very right. That is the type of act a “populist fascist” would do.

    Now, what it actually would be after is executed is the question. It won’t be “the best solution for the average American”. Populist fascist like Trump would ensure that it would be a sweetheart government contract to some big corporation that plays his game.

    Perfect example https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/us/emergent-biosolutions-anthrax-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  22. Bystander says:

    Put Biden up there. He could say anything at it would not be as dumb or insane as previous dolt

    Trump behind the podium in the White House briefing room and declared, “I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. … Is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning, because, you see, it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs?”. Pointing at his head “”I’m, like, a person who has a good you-know-what.”

  23. 3b says:

    Bystander: I don’t dispute that, just pointing out that not having a press conference feeds the speculation. And the longer he puts off having one the more the speculation will grow, and it will be warranted.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    The democrats and the media are the enemy of the people. The attempts at manipulation and false approval according to fake polls are fooling no one. Do you really think this $1,900,000,000,000 package is too help people? No, it’s to fund specialized interest groups in exchange for favors, votes and an extension of power for irrational agenda. This pandemic was/is the perfect cover for the deviants. We’re now bordering absurdity when children’s books and toys are deemed offensive – yet another leftist diversion while playing on people’s longing to be indulged. Like the predators that they are, the progressive leaders primp the dull-witted masses until dangerous intentions dissolve into acceptance. Liberalism is an out and out sickness.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    JFK is turning in his grave. The ideals of classical liberalism went off the rails in the last decade. They went from the party of the hard-working middle class to an absolute freak show of epic measure. Thank G0d the Black and Hispanic communities are starting to see the fraud for what it is and are slowly turning to an all-inclusive Republican party. The Republican Party has now become the party of hard-working, common-sense rational Americans.

  26. joyce says:

    Gary,
    How different is it from the bailouts last year?

  27. Dink says:

    Eddie and co are going to be doing alot of whining and crying for the next 4 years. His big old wet man-baby god has been quiet for a while so his followers need to fill the void. Bunch of snowflakes who will fill the airwaves with fake grievances and bad faith arguments around everything and anything. My advice is when they pretend to care about stuff like press conferences, deficits, rule of law, decorum, honesty, mental acuity….anything actually….just laugh out loud.

  28. joyce says:

    I agree but some of your list is every time there’s a change in party at the executive or congressional majority.

  29. Bystander says:

    There is no logic to it..like many Randians, Ed will do the mental gymnastics necessary to believe his side is fiscally conservative and anti-social#sm. Special interests are bad after all…

    “Last year, a record $46 billion were paid in direct farm subsidies, accounting for almost 40 percent of the industry’s earnings last year.”

    Oh and don’t tell us this money gets tractor driving, overall wearing mom and pop. There are mega corps.

  30. JoyceLovesCops says:

    Joyce,

    Sure it was. But at that time I still was under the spell, which I ferociously awoke and broke from, mainly in seen the incompetence and cruelty in his dealing with the virus.

    At the time of the writing I though there was hope, common sense and at least some shrivel of competency and compassion. But it was not to be, further more he showed his traitor colors. The reality is otherwise and I’m a pragmatic.

    The facts change and I change my mind, unlike some in here, but I can’t be that hard on them, as it takes mental work.

    To quote Hannah Arendt – “The result of a consistent and total substitution of lies for factual truth is not that the lie will now be accepted as truth, and truth be defamed as lie, but that the sense by which we take our bearings in the real world – and the category of truth versus falsehood is among the mental means to this end – is being destroyed.”

  31. Chicago says:

    Joyce: How are you able to target an archived post so precisely?

    People have described it on here numerous times, but I fail.

    I was just recently trying to find my UST-10 posts. Tried different iterations.

    TYIA

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Understand this. Renting is the future for most. The owners have been buying up properties like hot cakes. You have buyers like black stone buying up as much as they can.

    But while you can, it will not get easier. The govt has given up on the idea of most of the population being owners. That experiment failed.

    “I definitely think the pandemic widened the gap between the haves and the have-nots,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin (RDFN) “When I started in this business, there was a broad consensus around making the American dream accessible to middle- and lower-income people. After this year I now see housing as a luxury good.”

    https://apple.news/AaxGHYyKPRTe1GgyiwSIk3w

    3b says:
    March 7, 2021 at 10:42 am
    Pumps : If prices keep going up the way you want them to, you will push out all the NJ teachers too, as two teacher salaries won’t be able to afford the prices and taxes. Good thing you married up. Sad though that you appear to be gleeful about poor people being pushed out, but not surprising

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    As of March 4th, 9:00 AM, 110,179 Americans have died from COVID-19 since O’Biden seized office.

  34. JoyceLovesCopsAndBuysThemDonuts says:

    Joyce,

    You see what I means with Traitor Eddie’s last post. This fine quote from Arendt fits him perfectly.

    “The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

  35. Bystander says:

    Blackstone is the epitome of lobby/govt sponsored heads I win, tails you lose..dufus

    “When Waypoint Homes merged, it created a single-family rental behemoth and doubled down on Wall Street’s bet that in post-housing-crisis America, renting would become more popular. The combined company would own 82,000 homes in more than a dozen markets and be valued at approximately $11 billion.

    Like Blackstone needed more financial help, they received more help from the government which is totally absurd. In 2017, Invitation Homes disclosed in its prospectus that the company had received a 10-year $1 billion loan from Wells Fargo and that Fannie Mae would securitize and back the principal and interest. Essentially, Fannie Mae had agreed to provide a government-backed guarantee for a billion-dollar loan. This federal backing allowed Invitation Homes to benefit from lower interest rates and more favorable loan terms than the single-family rental industry had ever received before. It appears to have been a result of sustained industry lobbying. Also, in redefining single-family rental housing as an alternative form of multifamily, the industry successfully persuaded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to overlook regulations that prohibit the government-sponsored entities from investing in new or emerging asset classes.”

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, this is the reality.

    “A $60 Billion Housing Grab by Wall Street
    Hundreds of thousands of single-family homes are now in the hands of giant companies — squeezing renters for revenue and putting the American dream even further out of reach.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/magazine/wall-street-landlords.html

  37. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?

    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no back
    up. Do you have any methods to protect against hackers?

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dear Financial Samurais,

    At last, the Senate has passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. It looks great for the typical middle-class family. Here are some of the details:

    1) Individuals earning up to $75,000 a year and married couples earning up to $150,000 will receive the full $1,400 per person, including $1,400 per child/dependent. This money should reach approximately 90% of households.

    2) A $300 federal boost to weekly jobless payments through September 6, 2021. This is down from $400/week. However, extending through September 6 is huge because by then, any adult American who wants a vaccine should have been able to get one months earlier.

    3) The first $10,200 worth of benefits payments are tax-free for households with annual incomes less than $150,000.

    4) The Child Tax Credit increases from $2,000/kid to $3,000/year per kid between ages 6-17, and $3,600 per kid between ages 0-6.

    In other words, a middle-class family of four with two kids under 6 should receive (2 X $3,600) + (4X $1,400) = $12,800 in benefits with the first $10,200 tax-free.

    And if one parent is out of work, she or he will earn an additional $1,200 a month in enhanced unemployment benefits until September 6. Not bad!

    Parents Need Help

    The struggle for working parents to make ends meet is real. Working with kids at home is difficult. Working outside the home with kids may be an impossible situation without help from relatives or friends.

    My wife and I have been stay-at-home parents to two kids under 4 since the pandemic began. We don’t have traditional jobs, but I made a promise to publish three posts a week and write this newsletter once a week until everybody I know gets fully vaccinated. It is my way of not letting the virus defeat us.

    For example, this Sunday morning my day started at 5:30 am writing this newsletter before the kids woke up. Then it was non-stop tag-team childcare until 8 pm because infants and toddlers need to be watched every minute until they go to sleep. It’s often a war between parents and children as to who can stay awake the longest!

    I’ve got to imagine many other working parents are struggling with exhaustion and juggling work and family duties as well.

    Therefore, despite the pork in the bill and the additional debt, I’m pleased with this latest stimulus package. Eventually, we will pay back the debt during better times. For now, we’ve got millions of people to help.

    What About For Investors?

    If you aren’t receiving any financial help from the latest package, take solace in knowing the package should help corporate profits down the road.

    All the Fed did last week was tell the truth about inflation.

    “We expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we will see inflation move up through base effects,” Powell said during a Wall Street Journal conference. “That could create some upward pressure on prices.”

    We all know inflation has been running much higher than the base or target 2% rate for a while now. Powell also said inflationary pressures won’t be enough to spur the central bank to hike interest rates.

    Bottom line: I will continue to buy the dips in the S&P 500. For example, last week, I sent in the remaining $7,500 to my daughter’s 529 plan for this year. Further, I continue to be bullish on real estate.

    However, if the 10-year yield gets to 2% within the next three months, I expect to see a 10%+ correction in the S&P 500 and a slight slowdown in real estate demand. However, I also believe real estate outperforms stocks the most when stocks are down 10% – 15%.

    The idea scenario is if the 10-year yield rises to 2% some time in 2022, rather than this quick ascent we’ve experienced this year.

    And speaking of the 10-year yield, I hope all this coverage in the media about the 10-year yield has made people realize why it’s the most important indicator to follow.

    In my post, The Proper Safe Withdrawal Rate, I was getting bashed by so many random readers about how the 10-year bond yield was irrelevant for returns. Or they somehow misunderstood I believed retirees should have all their investments in Treasuries. That’s incorrect. For the dissenters, the 10-year bond yield is intertwined with all risk asset returns.

    Real Estate Earnings Upgrade Cycle

    I just realized a parallel that could have significant implications for the real estate market.

    When it comes to publicly traded stocks, Wall Street analysts set quarterly or yearly profit estimates. If a company beats consensus estimates, the stock will likely go up and vice versa.

    When it comes to real estate, I see online pricing estimates by Redfin, Zillow, Opendoor, Quantarium, Collateral Analytics, CoreLogic, and others as similar to Wall Street analyst estimates.

    Given 90%+ of potential homebuyers first search for homes online, it’s safe to say the adoption of online pricing estimates to make more informed decisions is increasing.

    What I’ve noticed over the past 12 months is that the pricing algorithms of Zillow and Redfin cannot keep up with the bull market in real estate. In other words, their pricing estimates are often too low compared to the ultimate selling price.

    Therefore, we could see a self-perpetuating real estate pricing upgrade cycle which will fuel even more real estate demand. Eventually, pricing will hit a wall and start to fade. However, this seems unlikely at least this year.

    Mispricing Example

    Below is a mispricing example I use in my latest post, How To Use Bad Pricing Estimates By Zillow And Redfin To Your Advantage.

    A home in SF recently sold for $413,584 or 13.7% more than Redfin’s estimate. Unless Redfin wants to lose the trust of its users, it will have to upgrade this house’s pricing estimate and all the other houses nearby to reflect this latest market-clearing price. This in turn forces buyers to pay more, especially with inventory down.

    Eventually, the real estate pricing upgrade cycle will bring on enough sellers to slow pricing down. Then the cycle will repeat.

    If you or a company can figure out a way to diligently track this online pricing cycle, you or a company could make a lot of money.

    Please be aware the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage finally rebounded above 3%. 3.02% is still a great rate. However, the average rate for a 15-year fixed at 2.34% sounds much better. Check out Credible, my favorite online lending marketplace for competitive no-obligation quotes.

  39. Chicago says:

    Pumps. Stop posting this watered down McAdvice or I will beat the living sh!t out of you.

  40. Bystander says:

    Seriously he is dumb enough to believe that Financial Samurai is not a ad selling hack.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Someone that gets it.

    “This weeks Barron’s had a good article on Cathie. Yes, some clients are pulling money out of her fund, but these are the people who want to see gains now and can’t think long term horizon. She’ll be fine years from now. I didn’t know she started her fund with her own capital and no clients. She also has a small group of about 30 employees, some with no degrees or financial background. She has my respect for what she does.”

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I value people’s perspective. It helps me see the market better.

    Chicago says:
    March 7, 2021 at 4:54 pm
    Pumps. Stop posting this watered down McAdvice or I will beat the living sh!t out of you.

  43. BoomerRemover says:

    Really sick and tired of these [EXPLETIVE] checks going out the door. Upwards of four thousand for a family of three? I don’t even want to know whether it is taxable to the recipient. GTFO with this.

  44. njtownhomer says:

    Teachers may be hated today, perhaps more than the lawyers and bankers, but seriously they know the best.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-07/philanthropist-mackenzie-scott-marries-seattle-teacher-wsj-says?srnd=premium

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We gained back some losses as fears of an apocalypse ended, but then the real bull-market craziness began in January 1999 and ran for another year. Dot-com names peaked in early 2000, but selling picked up in October and never really stopped until 2003, with the market down a third. Remember that banker talking about losing 90%? He was talking about the late-’70s death march down, characterized by stocks going up in the morning and then down in the afternoon—optimists quickly stepped on by pessimists. Sure enough, after 2000, high-flying tech names were down 90%. Many went to zero.

    How do these bull bashes end? When the last skeptical buyer finally sees the light and buys into the dream that every car will be electric, that crypto replaces gold and banks, that we overindulge on vertically farmed “plant-based steaks” while streaming “Bridgerton” Season 5 before we hop on an air taxi for our flight to Mars. Those last skeptics (maybe already) convince themselves there’s no longer any downside. And then boom, it’s over.

    Bull markets need fuel. When the marginal buyer is done, there are no more greater fools to buy in, no matter how well companies actually perform. The dream is priced in, and firms can only meet, not beat, expectations.

    For those lulled by today’s bull market, remember that you own a piece of paper. Low-yielding U.S. Treasury bills and bonds are safe because they are backed by the U.S. government, by cash flow of tax dollars and by the country’s assets (think land, not Fort Knox). Stocks are backed by expectations of future earnings, but if you overpay during periods of high expectations (like today), then your downside is huge. Crypto is backed simply by the faith of those who proclaim it is a store of value. Even art and exotic cars and silly NFT tokens are backed only by faith the wealthy will overpay for uniqueness. Faith becomes scarce when the selling starts.

    https://apple.news/AUG_j4S61SCysVx_oAHD3xA

  46. Libturd says:

    Chi

    If I recall correctly, you said to watch the ten year when it went over 2.5?

  47. Libturd says:

    Futures down for Nasdaq again. The DJIA is up. Hmmm. Still nearly 20% to go before the Nasdaq makes up the overpriced difference IMHO.

    Wonder how long before the village idiot posts something from the Motley Fool?

  48. BRT says:

    some with no degrees or financial background

    Like I said, when you click on her staff section of her site, her staff looks like a rainbow coalition of millennials who have no idea that stocks can go down. You’ve only gotten a taste of how bad a bear market can be.

  49. ExEssex says:

    8:26 she’s got a type. Bald.
    Pre-nup? Oh I would imagine.

  50. Chicago says:

    But it’s for the children

    ExEssex says:
    March 7, 2021 at 10:48 pm
    8:26 she’s got a type. Bald.
    Pre-nup? Oh I would imagine.

  51. Libturdla says:

    Musk, superhero to the stupid, missed yet another promise after his long string of unmet promises. No electric truck until at least 2022. Tsla back below 590 in the premarket.

  52. Juice Box says:

    Newflash 36 year old man complains to Oprah that his father cut off his allowance.

  53. ExEssex says:

    A former neo-Nazi told CNN that Fox News radicalizes people by saying the same things he used to say.

    Frank Meeink was interviewed by CNN’s Pamela Brown during a segment Saturday about domestic extremism in the US. Mediaite posted a video of the segment, during which Brown played a clip of Christopher Wray, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    “January 6 was not an isolated event. The problem of domestic terrorism has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now and is not going away anytime soon,” Wray said. “At the FBI, we’ve been sounding the alarm on it for a number of years now.”

    Brown also noted that law enforcement has warned that some of the same people present on January 6 have also expressed wanting to “blow up the Capitol” when President Joe Biden first addresses Congress. She asked Meeink what is driving this extremism.

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    All of Bergen and Essex counties for their proximity to New York, but especially Wykoff in Bergen County and Montclair and Glen Ridge in Essex County.

    The Wyckoff thing I can’t understand. It’s not easy to get to and doesn’t have a train. They re-did the center of town and turned it into a shopping plaza or centralized area but I don’t get the major draw. And half the town is septic. What’s the appeal?

  55. ExEssex says:

    9:14 lots of white people.

  56. Juice Box says:

    Wyckoff – because you can spend $800 on a ranch or a split level built in 1955 with 14,000 in taxes. These people in the link below wanted $840k, house was even featured in the NY Times last summer they got $730 in June 2020, that is double what they paid for it in 1999.

    You can thank the FED, the Mortgage rate in 1999 was pushing 8%. Now it’s 3%.

    So a 30 year monthly payment of $1,820 on a $250,000 mortgage in the year 1999 translates into $450,000 loan today @ 3%.

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/34-LYONS-STREET,-wyckoff-nj_rb/38063873_zpid/

  57. joyce says:

    chicago,
    There’s a few different ways some easier than others. To start, try a google search with the website name, a space, and then a keyword or phrase in quotes.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    That doesn’t sound right. I think I said 158 & 185, but I could be mistaken.

    Libturd says:
    March 7, 2021 at 10:08 pm
    Chi If I recall correctly, you said to watch the ten year when it went over 2.5?

  59. chicagofinance says:

    Just to be clear, your financial stupefy is reporting 75/150, when the numbers are 80/160.

    But hey
    “The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 7, 2021 at 7:24 pm
    I value people’s perspective. It helps me see the market better.”

    FRIGHTENING

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 7, 2021 at 2:54 pm
    Dear Financial Samurais,

    At last, the Senate has passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. It looks great for the typical middle-class family. Here are some of the details:

    1) Individuals earning up to $75,000 a year and married couples earning up to $150,000 will receive the full $1,400 per person, including $1,400 per child/dependent. This money should reach approximately 90% of households.

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Leader of the Pack
    The U.S. could help drive a powerful global economic recovery. The world economy is likely to grow by around 6% this year, according to Oxford Economics, the fastest rate in almost half a century, as vaccine campaigns allow pandemic restrictions to be lifted and businesses to snap back. For the first time since 2005, the U.S. is expected this year to make a bigger contribution to global growth than China. After the 2008 financial crisis, by contrast, the global economic recovery was powered by China, as the U.S. experienced the weakest revival since the Great Depression. The U.S.’s economic resilience reflects the nation’s rapid rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, an expected $1.9 trillion spending package, easy money from the Federal Reserve and pent-up savings, Tom Fairless reports.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I really think this movement to value is based on nonsense. Roaring 20’s 2.0 and I want to be in value stocks like Exxon? Yea, okay.

  62. Bystander says:

    Hey 30 yr (or any tax appeal expertise here).

    I appealed 12% tax increase in Feb and just received notice on Sat that hearing is tomorrow. I live on dead end block of 30 houses, many of varying sizes and upkeep. I noticed a big difference in tax paid per sq ft paid by people who purchased last 5-10 years vs. people who bought 20, 30+ years ago. Is that normal? It is quite egregious bc I would say block is 80% of residents purchased over 20 years ago. 20% are younger couples raising kids. As example:

    Bought in early 2015 – My home gas not been altered/updated in 17 years. Colonial, 4 BD/3BA, IG pool, about 2100 sq ft. A guy two doors down has 4 BD/3A, IG pool and 450 more sq ft but bought in 1994. His overall valuation is within 35k of mine. How can that be? House is not run down. Per his tax bill, he is paying $237/sq ft while I am paying $267. Also, I noticed that zip code is wrong on my card. There is the rich zip code, near beach housing, different “snootier” HS. My house show under it but I actually live in less snooty zip with different HS. Is that a point or not?

    Thanks. Wondering if I am prepared wit right data. I have numerous houses with this discrepancy in tax bills..

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cathie has been saying this for the past 2 years…be careful with the coming value traps.

  64. Hold my beer says:

    No One mentioned Janus Funds the other day in comparison to ARK. That was the fund group I was thinking of too but couldn’t remember the name. There were articles about the fund managers covering their hobbies, exercise routines, languages they can speak and musical tastes a few months before the peak.

  65. Juice Box says:

    Bystander – re: “zip code is wrong on my card”

    Is the District correct? Tax Rates are different for each district.

    For example.

    DISTRICT General Tax Rate Effective Tax Rate

    SHREWSBURY BORO 2.176 2.121
    SHREWSBURY TWP 3.266 3.158

  66. Fast Eddie says:

    9:34 – I see. So all those O’Biden signs and the “We believe in science, love is love…” signs are the fake liberals?

  67. Libturd says:

    Bystander,

    Gator, our resident tax appeal expert will help you out shortly, hopefully.

    It’s ExPats birthday today everyone. If you know his name, post something nice on FB. I know his kids have access to his account and they would appreciate it for sure.

  68. NJGator says:

    Bystander – You cannot argue comparable assessments in a tax appeal hearing. You can only argue market value. You need comparable sales during the assessing period. What town are you in? Outside of a reassessment/revaluation year, the town gets a buffer of 15% above the Chapter 123 Average Ratio (up to a max of 100% market value). Happy to explain to you the numbers you need to beat if you tell me which town. https://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/lpt/chapter123.shtml

  69. 3b says:

    Fast: Wyckoff has that woodsy suburban appeal, that some people like. We really liked the town and considered moving there years ago, no train so drive to Allendale for train. The Presidents streets section was the dumpy section, don’t know if it has been improved. As for close to NYC , that won’t matter like it did in the past.

  70. BRT says:

    lol, yes, beware of the company that pays 7% annually and sells everyone on earth a commodity that keeps going up.

  71. Bystander says:

    Reminds me of my dumb ex who wanted to hire CPA to do our taxes back in 2007. This was after I had to correct simple return in 2006 because her usual Brooklyn goomba tax preparer screwed it up so bad. Should never have done it. Paid him $450 for basic return then CPA tried to sell us hard on Genworth wealth mgt. Whole thing exploded a year later. Glad I talked her out of it. Helped when I got half of assets. Would have loss most of it through that scam.

  72. BRT says:

    By,

    we had a guy do our taxes 2 years ago because I just didn’t have the free time. I was going over his errors correcting them every other day and correcting them and he had the nerve to try to bill me $750. It would have been easier just to do them myself.

  73. Bystander says:

    Thanks Gator. I am in CT so will have to check that. I was expecting more time but f-ers gave nothing.

  74. NJGator says:

    Bystander – Don’t got nuthin for you for CT. We’ve done all our appeals in NJ. Good luck!

  75. chicagofinance says:

    3B: help me before I excoriate Pumps. He’s pissing me off.

    In short, if you have been active in the markets primarily from 2008 onward, you have a completely warped sense of reality. Value traps? So stupid that I question you access to oxygen.

  76. chicagofinance says:

    I posted something about Fama-French a couple of weeks ago, and now we get this…..
    I guess my sh!tty MBA is worth something……

    How to Understand
    The Small-Stock Rally

    Small-caps are drubbing large ones this year. What does that mean for what’s ahead?

    BY MARK HULBERT

    SMALL STOCKS so far this year have beaten their large-capitalization brethren by a wider margin than they have in more than two decades, raising questions about what is driving the outperformance and what it means for the overall market ahead.

    The year-to-date return for small-caps through the end of February was a remarkable 25 percentage points greater than that of large-caps (as measured by the 20% of stocks with the smallest market caps vs. the comparative quintile of the largest). While it isn’t unexpected for small-cap portfolios to beat large-caps over time—a long-term tendency that Wall Street analysts refer to as the “size effect”—what is unusual is the magnitude of the outperformance. It has averaged just 0.9 percentage point over all two-month periods since 1926, according to data from Dartmouth professor Ken French.

    You have to go back to January and February of 2000, at the top of the internet-stock bubble on Wall Street, to find a two-month stretch in which the small-caps beat the large-caps by more. Their margin of outperformance over those two months was 41 percentage points.

    Any parallel to the top of the internet-stock bubble is ominous, to be sure. But there are several idiosyncrasies to small-caps’ recent performance that stand in the way of drawing any straightforward analogies to the frenzy in small stocks that heralded the 2000 tech-stock crash.

    Indeed, according to several researchers, small-caps’ recent strength may actually be something else in disguise—that is, it may be due to factors other than just size, such as the battle between growth and value stocks.

    That doesn’t mean there is nothing to worry about in this bull market, where valuations are stretched thin for many stocks. But it does mean that investors who are focused solely on the small-cap/large-cap divergence could be missing the bigger picture. Here’s why.

    1. Value versus growth

    One distinction that is crucial for understanding the relative strength of small-caps this year has to do with where small- and large-cap stocks lie on the growth-versus value spectrum. Small-cap stocks currently are far closer to the value end of the spectrum than large-caps, meaning they are trading for lower prices relative to their net worth.

    A stock’s place on this spectrum is defined by its ratio of price to per-share book value, with the highest ratios at the growth extreme and the lowest at the value extreme. Consider the Russell Microcap Index, which contains the smallest 1,000 stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 index. Its average price-to book ratio is 2.5 at the end of February, according to Russell Indexes. That compares with a 4.2 ratio for the Russell 1000 Index (which contains the largest 1,000 stocks) and a 5..7 ratio for the Russell Top 50 Mega-Cap Index (which contains the largest 50.) These are significant differences, according to Kent Daniel, a finance professor at Columbia University and a former co-chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs. He says that, on average, small-cap growth stocks tend to underperform the market, while small-cap value stocks tend to outperform. Since 1926, he says, the smallest-cap stocks closest to the growth end of the spectrum have lost 3.3% annualized, while the smallest most value-oriented stocks have gained 13.3% annualized.

    This pattern has been especially strong in recent months, making it difficult to determine what accounts for small-caps’ relative strength this year. But Prof. Daniel says there is the distinct possibility that it is really a “value effect masquerading as a size effect.” If so, a bet on small-cap relative strength continuing is really a bet that value will outperform growth.

    That bet may pay off in coming months, he says, and value could continue to outperform growth for many years. But he also says that value stocks have lagged behind growth stocks for at least a decade now, and while there have been numerous predictions of a value resurgence over that time, it hasn’t happened— at least not yet.

    2. Sector bets

    The benchmark indexes for small-caps and large-caps have different sector weightings, which also makes it difficult to gauge whether the recent relative strength of small-caps is actually due to company size.

    Consider the information-technology sector. The ETF benchmarked to the largest 50 stocks currently has a 38.6% weighting to this sector, more than three times the 12.7% weighting of the Russell Microcap Index.

    Conversely, the microcap index has more than 10 times the weighting of the largest-50-stock ETF to the industrials sector (11.7% versus 0.8%) and more than double the allocation to the financials sector (17.6% to 7.1%).

    These differences are a big part of small-caps’ year-to-date performance, since industrials and financials have each outperformed the information-technology sector. It was just the opposite for calendar 2020, and sure enough, the smallest stocks lagged behind the largest last year.

    Until there are small-cap and large-cap benchmarks with the same sector weightings—Prof. Daniel says he is unaware of any currently—it will be difficult to determine what is driving small stocks’ relative strength. If it is being caused by differences in sector weightings, however, it is likely to persist only if the sectors in which the small-caps are overweight continue outperforming.

    3. Is the small-cap effect real?

    This discussion also points to a more fundamental question that many researchers have been asking in recent years: Does the small-cap effect even exist, in and of itself? That is, do smaller firms really have higher returns than larger firms, on average, over long periods? Andrea Frazzini, a principal at AQR Capital Management and an adjunct professor of finance at New York University, has concluded that it exists only among a very narrow group of stocks. He says that some of the relative strength of small-caps in recent months traces to speculative fervor for stocks outside that narrow group, making it risky to bet that it will continue.

    According to his research, small-caps are a good bet to outperform the large-caps only if you limit your focus to companies’ with high financial quality. By financial quality he means firms that are profitable, have robust profit growth and a stable earnings stream and a high dividend-payout policy, among other characteristics. Many of the small companies that have performed the best so far this year don’t qualify.

    Companies that have been bid higher in recent weeks through social- media investor campaigns— such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment— are two examples, but they are hardly alone in not qualifying for Prof. Frazzini’s high-quality category. Nearly half of the 2,000 companies in the Russell 2000 small-stock index had negative earnings in 2020.

    Prof. Frazzini’s research therefore suggests that, if you want to bet on a continuation of recent small-cap relative strength, you should focus on small stocks that score high on various measures of financial strength, safety and quality. And don’t sweat the comparisons to that internet-stock frenzy of 20 years ago.

  77. Juice Box says:

    Did anyone tell sleepy Pres Joe yet?

    CDC says that the vaccinated can now gather with no mask requirements, and don’t need to quarantine or test if exposted.

    “Fully vaccinated people can:

    Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing
    Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing

    Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known exposure if asymptomatic

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

  78. SmallGovConservative says:

    Very good article; depressing and frustrating to those of us that believe in a limited role(s) for government, but very accurately sums up the current state of affairs in this country — and the reasons for it.

    “Everything Is Broken…

    I was on a client call earlier this week with Steve Blumenthal. The gentleman is at that stage in life where he needs cash income and not risk. Steve commented, “The bond market is broken.” And indeed, the traditional fixed income bond market is broken, thanks to the Fed. We were able to suggest some alternatives (they are out there) that could help solve his problem.

    But it got me thinking: “What else is broken?” And the more I thought, the more I realized that the data that we use every day, the very systems that we are forced to work with, are indeed in various stages of being broken…”

    https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/everything-is-broken?post=301070

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  80. JCer says:

    bystander, same here. I only know NJ. I’ve done 3 county appeals and went to tax court in Trenton twice, it isn’t easy if you don’t have good comps. I’ve got 2 acres in a town where most people have a quarter acre, turn over on similar properties is like once every 5 years there are so few, and often it’s a foreclosure due to the stupid property taxes.

    In theory I think CT has a very similar scheme to NJ. You can only appeal the assessed value and you need to argue based on real sales of comps, a good thing to look at is homes in the immediate area with similar size and number of beds/baths, condition also counts, but if you can show your assessment is higher per sqft than similar houses in the area you will likely be able to get the assessment lowered. You can also expand the sales window by adjusting the sales price based on the overall market trends(basically how prices moved in your area vs. the assessment year).

    Unfortunately they do not take other assessments into account, the house across the street from me pays 10k less despite being a very similar size and in similar condition(they have a smaller lot but it is flat vs. sloped), house next to me pays almost what the house across the street does despite being a way worse house with a worse lot. It was all a function of when they were purchased(2016-2017 in my neighbor and my case) vs. 2010 across the street. So it is blatantly unfair we are over taxed and he is under taxed but he got is house cheap by buying at the bottom and even after a reval they kept the assessment low. Based on current comps though the assessments all look very, very low.

  81. JCer says:

    Bystander CT’s a a bit different in that they do not have an administrative process(basically either you settle with the town or go to superior tax court, you don’t have an impartial arbitration like in NJ or other states). Your appeal is directly with the assessor in your town, they have to hear your request if it is under 1m assessed but they are hardly impartial as they are the ones who set your assessment. You than have the right to appeal to superior court, I think you have a limited time to appeal though so keep that in mind.

    Like Jersey the key to the appeal though is arguing the valuation using real comp sales that occurred recently.

  82. No One says:

    BRT,
    Looks like when ARK was a small ETF manager they couldn’t afford to hire people with experience, with MBAs, with CFAs as analysts. So they hired mostly people fresh out of college with science or liberal arts degrees. Only one of their analysts have a CFA charter. It doesn’t look like any of them have ever seen a real bear market. They basically have only seen a growth stock market. I suspect they are mostly in the business of producing narratives rather than hardheaded analysis. Storytelling helps blow the bubble bigger. Hardheaded analysis would be a downer in this market. The resume of their head of compliance/due diligence looks very thin.
    Ark is making their analysts write self-confirming analysis to the public which is psychologically quite bad for analysts because it makes them less objective about the stocks they write about, less willing to change their minds. Can turn them into promoters not analysts. Janus analysts were also in the limelight as promoters of their positions, but at least a few of them looked like they had some experience. ARK looks like some kids made to do creative writing assignments. Of course that will appeal to the less sophisticated, more gullible investors like someone we know.

    Chifi,
    Low quality, high priced, speculative stocks have been doing very well for the last couple of years. That’s started reversing pretty hard recently. It’s not just in the US, BTW.

    What’s really weird is that a lot of companies that have seen their businesses really beaten up by COVID have seen their stocks rally to equal or higher than before it happened. Despite facing at least a couple more lean years ahead.

    You should subscribe to Cliff Asness’ emails. His top strategies have been hit hard by markets for years, but he writes well, especially on disentangling what’s going on with value.

  83. Bystander says:

    Thanks JCer. I just talked to a buddy of mine who did appeal 1.5 years ago in Norwalk. He chose 3 shittiest comps possible and just created 1 page summary of reasons why home condition was not correct. Knocked $13oo off bill. Guess I will wing it. The trouble is that ultra low rates have driven crazy comps over last 10 months. My neighbor sold for 100K loss in January 2020 though 2014 new construction and much bigger. I need to choose comps from Jan, Feb and March before market went nuts. Is sale within 1 year standard as comp?

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Truth is, nobody knows how to value anything in this market. Times have changed and it’s all a gamble. I’m going to stick with disruptive tech and the ARK team because that’s the only sure thing I know…long term it will be rewarded.

    It’s herd driven right now. Just taking their money from tech and pouring it in small cap value because that’s what all the talking bobble heads say to do right now. In a month or a couple of months, they will change their tune back to growth tech stocks again. All bs short term movement creating profit from buying and selling in the short term.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not here to trade, I don’t feel like dealing with the taxes. Sure, I could have sold, but it’s just not worth it to play that game.

    I might skip this month’s purchase and hope the ark funds fall more, and then buy two months worth in the next window…or patiently wait some more if I feel it will go even lower. For me this is all about waiting for a great opportunity in the long term.

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When you play the long game, you wait for these bloodbaths. Best opportunity in the game. That’s why you guys didn’t understand that I was happy to be experiencing a crash right when I started this strategy. Long term, can’t get better timing than this. Beat it up, create that long term value.

  87. Now I am ready to do my breakfast, afterward having my breakfast coming yet again to read further news.

  88. Hold my beer says:

    Why isn’t Jethro Tull in the Hall of Fame?

    I’m dedicating this classic of theirs for a fanboy of disruption

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAt1b21S97k

  89. Libturd says:

    “Times have changed and it’s all a gamble.”

    Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong!

    It’s not a gamble whatsoever. If you listened to me and started diversifying, this minor correction wouldn’t even bother you one bit. Sure, I’ve lost a little over 5% of my stock market gains in the past month. So what, I made 35% across the board last year. That was the gift horse. Worst of all, I highly doubt this is the black swan correction. This is just a little capitulation on the way to higher highs. Though, they will be achieved in across the board broad based gains. Not just in “the disruptors.” Stop chasing the flavor of the month and get-rich-quick schemes. Those are for suckers.

    What always worked, continues to work. The real problem is, the spoiled generation, who can’t even handle being called a name, let alone any real adversity, also doesn’t have the patience and discipline necessary to make 10-12% a year and be very happy with it.

  90. LurksMcGee says:

    @3:41 Spot on post. Its easy to get sucked into the volatility that you see in a short timeframe than the big picture over a large length of time. What works in the last 5 years isn’t what works over the course of 10 and so on. But it sure is nice to cash in on the gifts.

  91. 30 year realtor says:

    On tax appeals in NJ. When you purchased has no impact. Doesn’t matter what you paid. An outside appraiser does the valuation for the municipality. Comps should be less than 6 months old. Distressed sales like short sales, REO, sheriff sales and estates are not acceptable.

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib,

    You and chi were correct, I should have listened.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    Are you schizophrenic? WTF is this pair of posts?

    Bottom line…. I don’t care about the quality of your work, at least be consistent. If you have a discipline, stick to it. Don’t be all over the place. You have no idea whether this is the end of it, or we go down 20% more. So stick with your discipline.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 8, 2021 at 3:17 pm
    I’m not here to trade, I don’t feel like dealing with the taxes. Sure, I could have sold, but it’s just not worth it to play that game.

    I might skip this month’s purchase and hope the ark funds fall more, and then buy two months worth in the next window…or patiently wait some more if I feel it will go even lower. For me this is all about waiting for a great opportunity in the long term.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    March 8, 2021 at 3:20 pm
    When you play the long game, you wait for these bloodbaths. Best opportunity in the game. That’s why you guys didn’t understand that I was happy to be experiencing a crash right when I started this strategy. Long term, can’t get better timing than this. Beat it up, create that long term value.

  94. Libturd says:

    Thought the same thing Chi. The lack of self-awareness is astounding. The schizophrenia just adds to the pain.

  95. BRT says:

    @buyhighsellhigher

    New analysts are often like idiot savants. They pick the right stocks for the wrong reasons, but they’re not tied down by dogmatic nonsense that doesn’t apply anymore. They’re bad risk managers for downturns though.

  96. njtownhomer says:

    Back in the dot.com days there was a cultural movement for folks comfortable using the internet, message chat boards and other venues to gather, crowdsource and discuss. The end result was a massive run on low quality speculation.

    Today, this has been the end result of a few years experience of social arb, fintwit, reddit and influencer furus. The transactions of many with the gamified interface are solely based on memetic names like GME, ZackMorris, RoaringKitty, Chamat, ARK and GOD Elon Papa.

    Today we see during the reversal tide the destruction of these memes in the big systemic rotation. But I think some of the actions are really overdone, or should I say overrotated.

    There is hardly a GPU available in store in many countries, the new supply chain is limited. The semi normally a laggard of industrials are really in short supply, and yet AMD, NVDA are back in Aug/Jul 2020 levels. After vaccines/COVID the cloud infrastructure, crypto craze, online marketplace are not going to diminish. Perhaps we will see more of the increases in the manufacturing cost and special materials to make these chips. I could understand StitchFix, or Peloton, but these core semi names I have not much explaining to do.

  97. Bear says:

    Long time lurker. Anyone has had experience getting in state tuition going to an out of state school? My kid got into a good state school whose out of state cost is kind of expensive. in state is cheap at about 8k a year.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s what I believe. Too many people being cautious and calling for bubbles. We are now where near a bubble. I can’t let you bears get in my head and cloud it with negativity.

    “Finally, we’ve seen in the past few years rapid sell-offs that act like mini-bubble burst. Tesla, that high-flying stock and company, soared in 2020 and then saw its stock plunge from a high above near $900 to below $650 in a few weeks; Peloton went from $150 to $105. Moves of 20-30% in a short time span are more common. The result is that we may be witnessing a continually formation and popping of mini-bubbles all the time, which doesn’t fit neat narratives of huge market moves. Over the past weeks, a whole bunch of high-flying stocks like Zillow (everyone seemed to be real-estate shopping on-line during the pandemic) and Peloton sold off more than 30%, and they were hardly alone. Apple and Amazon were both down nearly 20% from their highs in early February. If you’d bought stocks such as these a few weeks ago, it certainly felt like bubbles popping, even as the overall indices were only down a few points.

    It’s possible that by the time you read this, everything will have changed; it’s possible as well that it will all change back the day after you read this. The weird resilience of financial markets in a weird time, however, is unlikely to change much for the foreseeable future. That will likely frustrate bubble watchers, and confound those who rightly note the yawning divide between capital and labor. But for now, the only evident bubble in the markets is the sheer number of people predicting bubbles about to burst. Bet against them before you bet against the markets.”

    https://apple.news/AQQr05w_VRVSbFwThEJhsdA

  99. BRT says:

    Bear,

    20 years ago, Arizona gave it to people if they just signed a lease. Not sure if that’s changed.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bubbles, bubbles everywhere. So say an increasing number of Wall Street professionals, who see the lofty prices of everything from equities to Bitcoin, new homes to the soaring value of newly public companies as clear signs that the financial system is again on the verge of a major reset similar to what happened in 2000 and 2008. Legendary money manager Jeremy Grantham thinks that it’s even worse than that, with a high likelihood that the next move will rival the crash of 1929 in severity, while Ray Dalio, head of the world’s largest private fund manager Bridgewater Associates, says that their proprietary indicators show that while we are not yet at levels seen just before the 2000 and 2008-2009 crashes, we are getting perilously close. And with the pull back this week, along with the sharp sell-off in many of the high flying companies that have doubled or more over the past pandemic year, there’s a rising chorus saying the bursting is upon us.
    But is it true? The fact that stocks have run up in aggregate 80% since they dove in the first weeks of the pandemic in March, or that bitcoin has gone up nearly five-fold or that Tesla has soared almost eight times over to become bigger than the next ten global auto makers combined by market cap certainly should force everyone to ask the bubble question, as should the nearly $20 trillion that global governments have spent to shore up economies devastated by pandemic disruptions. And then there is the SPAC phenomenon, which is a complicated vehicle to bring private companies public and is seeing a multi-billion frenzy. “I mean, Shaq has a SPAC. What could go wrong?” quipped one bubble-watching economist recently.
    Assets soaring, however, is not in and of itself a sign of bubble. Since the dot-com crash of 2000, bubble-hunting has become its own cottage industry. If there’s any doubt about the veracity of that statement, just look at Google’s Ngram (which traces usage of all printed words over time): the use of terms such as “stock bubble” and “stock market bubble” soared after 2000, crested in 2005 and then receded a bit but still has stayed at level never seen until 2000. Calling bubbles, predicting them, and warning of them has almost become a bubble itself, but that also means that almost all of these predictions have been wrong.
    Almost exactly a year ago at this time, I warned that markets were due for a sharp correction and that the emergence of COVID-19 was more than a valid reason. It got much worse before it got better, but it has since gotten much, much better than almost anyone expected. The widening gulf between those that have thrived in the Zoom economy and those economically devastated by the pandemic has simply intensified an already wide gulf between capital and labor. Those realities are reflected in stock markets: in our pandemic year tech companies are up four times more than energy and consumer staple companies. The contrast gets even more acute comparing bankrupt retail chains such as Nieman Marcus with on-line retail superstars such as Etsy, Farfetch and, of course, Amazon.
    The past two weeks saw some wild selling and lots of volatility, as both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices gave up their gains for the year. That led to a fair share of “I told you sos” by those bears who had been predicting doom, but the selling was triggered – as it often is – not by any swift change in the fundamentals of companies but by a shift in expectations reflected in rising interest rates. Stock sold off not because of negative economic news and expectations but because of very positive ones, that the pandemic would soon be in the past, that trillions more in federal spending would bolster even those ailing the most, and that consumers, after hibernating in pandemic-land, would soon unleash an orgy of spending, driving up prices and inflation.
    But there’s still good reason to question whether any of that portends bubbles about to burst. First, even if the bubble hunters are onto something timing matters. If you had listened to Alan Greenspan (then chair of the Federal Reserve) in 1998 warning of irrational exuberance and sold your stocks, you would have missed massive gains, especially had you then taken some profits before March of 2000.
    The word “bubble” assumes speculative mania, and that is not at all evident just now. There may be pockets of that in those Shaquille-infused SPACs (though honestly, Shaq has done better managing his investments than most of us). Perhaps the recent frenzy surrounding Gamestop was also a signal of froth. Stock markets, however, represent 4000 or so companies, the vast majority of which represent the cream of the crop of capitalism; even the most speculative of them are seeing massive revenue growth even if they are still losing money. Valuations are always a relative game; stocks just like the hard-to-get Sony Play Station are worth what people are willing to pay. Most companies in the markets are growing far more than any national economy, and if you want your investments to grow, hitching a ride with companies that are thriving makes more sense than investing in government bonds whose yields barely match inflation.
    The final reason to be skeptical of bubble mania is that so many people are so certain that we are in a bubble simply because stocks have gone up. Skepticism, let alone pessimism, is almost the opposite of euphoria. Even the wealthy have been keeping an usually large amount of cash on hand, which is itself a sign of uncertainty. Average Americans, who likely won’t be the primary fuel of stock market investing, have been saving like it’s the Great Depression, because for many it has felt like one. But the upper income brackets, who are a primary fuel for markets, have been parking even more in cash. An extra $2 trillion has been added to savings accounts, bringing the total to more than $5 trillion, higher than during the Great Recession in 2009. There’s no guarantee that money will be invested, but the fact so many are sitting on so much cash is a sign not of euphoria but of caution.

  101. ExEssex says:

    9:31 in some states you can relocate, get the state drivers license and declare residency.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Cathie Wood says the underlying bull market is strengthening and she’s finding great buying opportunities in the sell-off”

    “KEY POINTS

    Cathie Wood is not scared of the recent pullback in her ETFs.

    The founder of Ark Invest said its good for her long-term strategy when the bull market broadens to other pockets of the market.

    “We are becoming more and more optimistic about our portfolios in this sell-off,” she told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday.”

    “Ark Investment Management founder and CEO Cathie Wood said she is not worried about the recent drop in her funds and that the bull market is simply broadening out to include more strategies like value.

    The hot-handed investor added that over time her disruptive strategy will pay off, and she’s capitalizing on the sell-off.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/cathie-wood-says-the-underlying-bull-market-is-strengthening-will-benefit-arks-strategy-over-time.html

  103. 3b says:

    Essex: I don’t know if that is still the case. As I understand it most states, require proof of residence, and with a minimum period of time required residency. I have heard this from a number of people that are/ were involved in the college advice business.

  104. Libturd says:

    I read two years of residency (usually at grandma’s house and more importantly, high school), from many over the years. I do know a few people who’s parents found jobs at state universities to get tuition reimbursement for their children. Very smart move, especially when mom was stay at home.

    “Too many people being cautious and calling for bubbles.”

    Said the author who was so successful at running mutual and hedge funds that he quit to write books.

  105. BRT says:

    I’m cautious of an ETF where multiple holdings spikes up to all time highs at the exact same moment while the CEO is constantly on TV but never once mentions debt, balance sheets, or revenue because she’s too busy speaking in buzzwords.

    You should know better. All the admin at your school do the same crap. They were all the worst teachers in the world but speaking in all kinds of lingo that sounds like they know something others don’t.

  106. Bear says:

    BRT
    Thanks. Did it matter if parents paid for the lease? Criteria seems vague by design. One of the unofficial check lists floating on the internet seems to suggest that the student also has to show financial independence. Thinking of getting an accountant. Not kidding.

  107. njtownhomer says:

    Don’t you need to submit some tax returns, or proof of residency for a min term at least? I think TX requires min 1 year prior residence status for instance. My friend moved 6 months before the application couldn’t get the in-state rates I recall for his grad school.

  108. Fabius Maximus says:

    From one of the smartest women in Finance. And I don’t mean the ARK Lady

    https://twitter.com/SRuhle/status/1369088033212006402

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you understand that she is investing in disruptive tech? You guys expect to be investing in disruptive tech that has good balance sheets and no debt? Come on, you guys just bash the hell out of her.

    BRT says:
    March 8, 2021 at 10:43 pm
    I’m cautious of an ETF where multiple holdings spikes up to all time highs at the exact same moment while the CEO is constantly on TV but never once mentions debt, balance sheets, or revenue because she’s too busy speaking in buzzwords.

    You should know better. All the admin at your school do the same crap. They were all the worst teachers in the world but speaking in all kinds of lingo that sounds like they know something others don’t.

  110. Juice Box says:

    Diamond Hands are at it again. GME

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GME?qsearchterm=

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The hate for her is ridiculous. It’s so true, everyone hates the guy on top.

    I want to see any of these people start funds with their own hard earned money. From day 1 they have bashed her. From day 1, she has proved them wrong. The minute her fund goes down after exploding for 150%, they all jump on her and try to bash her. Jokers.

    Do you avg 36% over a 6 year period of starting multiple funds because you are bad at what you do?

    The same people bashing her are the ones that bashed crypto and Tesla for years. They are lost in the woods, but think she is. Lol

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 9, 2021 at 6:42 am
    From one of the smartest women in Finance. And I don’t mean the ARK Lady

    https://twitter.com/SRuhle/status/1369088033212006402

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s true. How many times am I going to hear that we are in a bubble? How many times have they called for a bubble over the last 12 years? Can they admit for once that they don’t know wtf is going on? How many times can you be wrong and still listen to the garbage?

    “Too many people being cautious and calling for bubbles.”

    Said the author who was so successful at running mutual and hedge funds that he quit to write books.

  113. Fast Eddie says:

    punkin,

    Aren’t your students logging on to homeroom right about now?

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Says the lady against Tesla and bitcoin… the two best wealth-creating opportunities retail got in generation. No one’s falling for you or your network’s propaganda

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 9, 2021 at 6:42 am
    From one of the smartest women in Finance. And I don’t mean the ARK Lady

    https://twitter.com/SRuhle/status/1369088033212006402

  115. 3b says:

    Federal Reserve.

  116. Chicago says:

    Pumps. STFU and buy your DCA portion on schedule. Stick to the discipline. Set it and forget it. Just trying to keep you consistent.

  117. 3b says:

    WFH I would call disruptive technology.

  118. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    I guess he doesn’t remember the internet craze and analysts using metrics like eyeballs and other nonsense to justify companies with debt and negative casflow and sky high valuations.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast,

    Isn’t it time for your baby bottle? Sounds like you are hungry.

  120. Libturd says:

    SAT Prep. Any recent parents of high school juniors want to share any good SAT prep shops?

    Kid did well, but another fifty points would put him into serious scholarship range. This would be well worth the investment.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nah, I can change when opportunity presents itself. I’ll wait for the shorts to create an even bigger opportunity for myself.

    Chicago says:
    March 9, 2021 at 8:24 am
    Pumps. STFU and buy your DCA portion on schedule. Stick to the discipline. Set it and forget it. Just trying to keep you consistent.

  122. Chicago says:

    People don’t hate Wood in a vacuum. She was very interesting a couple of years ago and all of last year. The problem is that people who are retail and new to investing do not understand the context of what she’s doing. She’s very dangerous to those people and she’s going to make them lose a lot of money.

    This is the equivalent of going to the cas!no with $500 and basically playing until you bust out. Most people will leave the cas!no losing $500, because they play until they hit bottom and stop. That is exactly the worst way to run your business. Because you’re always in a position for max loss.

  123. njtownhomer says:

    Probably a confirmation for this oversold market. “Nasdaq 100 +2.2% in premarket as 10Y yields drop 6 bps”, Wood is gonna bounce big perhaps. She was hated by many although hers was transparent to the core.

    The rotation to not so effective names should not diminish the real value in tech, like semis, crypto and productivity.

  124. Bear says:

    Chicago:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/9kxe87/rich-families-are-legally-separating-from-their-kids-to-pay-less-for-college

    I don’t blame them at all. Especially those making slightly more than 200k. They never qualify for financial aid. Merit money this year is almost negligible because of covid19.

    Families: What is the fees at your college?
    College: How much money do you have?

  125. ExEssex says:

    Ahhhh the joy of living in a state with lots of good public universities.

  126. ExEssex says:

    The Daily Mail is just one story after another attacking
    the ex-royals. Funny thing I cannot imagine an American
    who loves “the monarchy” it’s one reason we broke off from the UK
    in the first place.

  127. Libturd says:

    Bear,

    Add an average of 35K in annual, out-of-pocket, medical costs to the mix. Then try to afford it. Thank the lord I was such a tight wad and had kids later in life.

  128. Libturd says:

    We have our own monarchy, the Kennedys, Hiltons and the Kardashians.

  129. ExEssex says:

    We are also like 80% pure dumbass too.

  130. bear says:

    ExEssex

    The problem is see with NJ universities is the lack of support for local students in specialty programs when compared to states like TX, or NC.

  131. ExEssex says:

    Americans are fixated on money and power.
    I grew up with one side of my family [Wall Street $$$]
    Where my mom’s brother was held up as the model
    of virtue and success. He dumped his first wife married her
    friend and his step kids all went to Ivies and ran hedge funds.
    Most of them voted for Trump and own private islands.
    Meanwhile as the poor relation side of the family my wife
    is 10x hotter (even at 50 years old) and I know that they love their
    Money more than they love anything else.

  132. Hold my beer says:

    Essex

    When someone from the UK or a commonwealth country goes on about how wonderful the monarchy is and then sneers something like the US doesn’t have a king or queen, I always say my ancestors fought 2 wars so their descendants wouldn’t have to put up with that bs. And then I add if the UK monarchy is so great, how come they had to import them from Germany? Why did they royal family change their name to Windsor in 1917 instead of German last name they had been using? That always ends the conversation instantly

  133. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m with you on that, they have to understand this is a highly volatile strategy to play disruptive tech before they get in. Not for the faint of heart that can’t watch their investment drop 50% in the short term. What’s sad, a lot of them well buy high and sell low. Exactly what is driving it down now.

    If you believe in disruptive tech long term, then you play. When there are big drops, you buy more and don’t run. You have to take advantage of the opportunities when they present themselves.

    There has never been an opportunity to invest in disruptive tech like this. She is the first to create a fund like this. I don’t have the knowledge to invest in disruptive tech on my own, I thought Tesla and Bitcoin were a joke. You have to be in the know in that field to do it. She is an expert at it and the best there is. I’ll just go with her.

    Chicago says:
    March 9, 2021 at 8:29 am
    People don’t hate Wood in a vacuum. She was very interesting a couple of years ago and all of last year. The problem is that people who are retail and new to investing do not understand the context of what she’s doing. She’s very dangerous to those people and she’s going to make them lose a lot of money.

    This is the equivalent of going to the cas!no with $500 and basically playing until you bust out. Most people will leave the cas!no losing $500, because they play until they hit bottom and stop. That is exactly the worst way to run your business. Because you’re always in a position for max loss.

  134. The Great Pumpkin says:

    These companies she’s investing in might not all be profitable at the moment, but they are game changers. That’s why she is here. She is targeting the tech and its supply chain before the masses realize what’s coming.

    People still don’t get it with Tesla or Bitcoin. It’s amazing. So you think they are going to understand the rest of her picks?

  135. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Here’s your dream team.

    https://ark-invest.com/our-team/

    I think most of them were in kindergarten or elementary school when the internet bubble burst and are too young to remember the mortgage meltdown too. Also read their bios.

  136. Juice Box says:

    Chi – why bother? He thinks he is investing in disruptive technology but has no idea. For example Cathy seems very tied to what Elon Musk says and does. Cathy thinks bitcoin is disruptive, and after Elon took TSLA cash and bought bitcoin, so she goes on CNBC or Bloomberg and says US companies should invest 10% of their cash into bitcoin instead of safer investments but does not tell the story of what Bitcoin is and the best her rookie analyst Yassine Elmandjra can do is compare it to that relic Gold.

    There are about 900 bitcoins created electronically in their electronic ledger every day. Of all those bitcoins added to their electronic ledger approx 75% are created on computers in China. So all that new money coming in to buy new bitcoins all priced in USD a large chunk goes to the Chinese companies that own and run the mining rigs.

    I mean 10 years ago, the price started at $0.30 per bitcoin today it’s worth $54,000 dollars, and has no real value other than what to create a way to skirt laws in some places like China where all cryptocurrency trading and investing is well actually banned! They can mine the coins but cannot trade them, the largest market in the world too, and they scrub their social media of all traces of cryptocurrency. It is not allowed to exist, OMERTA or ELSE! So who is the customer for these coins? The western investor! The miners control the price and production, not much different really other than any other cartel that has ever existed, or Ponzi. 1o years ago maybe it was disruptive technology but today it is just a ponzi scheme to enrich the party members of the CCP and the mining cartels who have invested heavily in cornering the Bitcoin market. Pumps says he is buy and hold, ok fine, but I will wager Bitcoin itself won’t exist in 10 years.

    As far as their other investments, TSLA is now getting their ass kicked. Analysts think approx 297 stocks in the S&P 500 will rise more than 5% over the next 12 months and TSLA is not one of them. Why is that? Well fundamentals still have a place in investing. TSLA is now losing market share to Ford and other players. They carved out a nice space in electric vehicles and now they are losing ground, with apparently no plan to make up for it with dozens of competitors coming to market. They have an incredible amount of pre-orders for their truck and they cannot fulfill any of them this year, so nothing is going to make their stock price rise unless well they buy some Bitcoin, and they try and get everyone else to do the same.

    When it crashes it is going to be a big one. Are we there yet?

    No, we are not there is another $4 Trillion spending bill coming down the pike, with lots and lots of goodies for electric car subsidies etc. Fun times to be alive.

  137. Fast Eddie says:

    50 days, still no press conference.

  138. ExEssex says:

    Stfu Eddie

  139. No One says:

    Libturd,
    I don’t know what SAT prep offers the best value per money. When I was a kid I think I spent $20 and bought one of those test prep books. For my GMAT I think I paid $60 for some computer software with practice and tests.

    If all you need is 50 more points then I suspect most self-guided test prep material would work, just from brush-up of common problems, more practice, and test-taking strategies. But maybe that’s already been done.

    For people going for 200 points or more, there’s a guy in the Princeton area who is very good but charges about $500/hr. He basically teaches the material 1 on 1 and teaches them to take tests too. Likely over 10% of my daughters’ classmates at her fancy private school ended up working with him. The uber luxury solo test prep guy, I think he was grossing nearly $1m per year. High level golf pros only get $200/hr.

    Kranse Institute costs $500 but there’s a 50% off code on the front page. I bet there are a bunch of apps/online prep in the low hundreds price range that might be good.
    It was the top placed ad in google search so I suspect they are paying a lot for marketing placement.

    Khan Academy is free and appears to have an extensive SAT test prep section.

    I bet BRT will have some good advice.

  140. Libturd says:

    I’ll leave this here for the poster with the skull thicker than Tesla truck glass. It’s the story of a disruptor among the stodgy behemoth mutual fund managers of the 80s and 90s.

    https://observer.com/2000/10/netwrecked-the-stormy-crash-of-ryan-jacobs-beautiful-internet-fund/

  141. Juice Box says:

    Essex – I’ll bite….I just love the fact that the media is glossing entirely over the fact that a 36 year old man was complaining on world wide media that his dad cut off his allowance and continued on to complain that his “private secretary” could not get a meeting for him with his Grandma!

    What a tool this guy is, when does he drive his Range Rover off a cliff for attention?

  142. Grim says:

    Cancel the monarchy.

  143. 3b says:

    Hold: I am no fan of the royal family, nor them personally, but what they represent. It’s my background. I had two granduncles who fought in the Irish War of Independence, after World War 1. They took opposite sides during the civil war as one would not recognize the British crown or swear allegiance to it. The other thought it was a temporary but necessary step at the time. The one who refused to recognize the crown left for NYC, and the other left 4 years later after becoming disillusioned with the new government and its right wing policies and no working towards a Republic. Both Uncles never fell out because of their political differences, and both worked for NYC subways for years after. Both despised monarchies.

  144. Fast Eddie says:

    Crisis at our Southern border as the DHS is now asking for volunteers to help with the crush of illegal aliens. How’s that for having a plan? Build back better, folks. lol.

  145. Libturd says:

    No One.
    Thanks. I looked at Kranse and it’s interesting. My only issue with it is that my son would be surfing youtube or tik-tok while making believe he is listening to the lectures, much like he does in school now. Personally, I did the same as you. I went to Walden books and purchased one of those thick soft covered book of SAT practice tests. I did one a week for about three months. My score went up almost 100 points from PSAT to SAT. Though, this methodology won’t work well for my son. He is motivated to work really hard for everyone but me. Probably because, well, he is a teenager. Looking for more of a Kaplan, Princeton Review, varsitytutors type of setup, where he has to go in person, as his incentive to do the homework.

  146. Fast Eddie says:

    By the way, I wonder if those on entitlement programs are being asked to find another job as was told to the 11,000 XL pipeline employees who were dumped?

  147. 3b says:

    When they cancel whatever amount of student loan debt they decide on it will be tax free, as per the new stimulus bill. So borrow the money, don’t pay it back,and it’s tax free as well. Moral hazard indeed.

  148. BRT says:

    Bear,

    that I don’t know.

  149. Walking says:

    Libturd, we used MEK in palisades park for our kid. They are doing in person one on one. Though the classes have not resumed (zoom meetings for now) . We got the 100 points but it took 18 months of prep. As for college essays we hired a zen /yoga/ holistic helper. 5 weeks and $800 and we had nothing. I dropped the hammer on her and she helped guide her towards her story.

  150. Juice Box says:

    Math is racist. Wrong answers are white supremacy, ban the SAT.

  151. ExEssex says:

    As a Jew that hates math I was cast out….40 years in the desert.

  152. Fast Eddie says:

    Current average gas price nationally is $2.80. A year ago it was $2.38.

    Build back better. lmao!

  153. 3b says:

    Fast: I filled up the other day it was 2.95. What’s a little inflation? Jerome has it all under control.

  154. ExEssex says:

    10:07 I’m gonna sweat gas prices on my drive to Napa.
    Ya lost mmmm kay? Gas prices fluctuate but we thank you Jesus do not have to look at or listen to Trump. His family does. We do not. He was unequivocally the worst POTUS ever. The worst ever. His handling of Covid alone was without modern equivalent.

  155. ExEssex says:

    Gary
    You wanna go to that table and color with Pumkin??

  156. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think gas price right now has everything to do with controlling the supply. Aka the price.

  157. Fast Eddie says:

    His handling of Covid alone was without modern equivalent.

    Operation Warp Speed… an astounding success. We went from a unknown pandemic to a vaccine in under a year, handed to the fo0l currently occupying the WH. Trump’s successes are many. The left will forever seethe over the list of his achievements. On the contrary, we have a babbling, traitorous 1di0t who profited from his association with an enemy of the state. The worst POTUS ever is the one who is moving closer to being relieved of his duties.

  158. njtownhomer says:

    every Covid related Trump pump, we should remember

    “I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. … Is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning, because, you see, it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs?”

  159. Libturd says:

    You know what’s particularly absurd about all of the imprisoned Trump disciples? They all thought Trump would pardon them for trying to stop the election confirmation. Of course, Trump didn’t. Yet they all still support Trump, even from behind bars. The stupidity of this entire crew is only surpassed by the terrorist who tried to get his deposit back for the van he rented and exploded trying to blow up the WTC.

    And if I hear one more moron (and that’s about as nicely as I can put it) say that the capitol building is now fortified with a wall due to Biden. I’m going to write whoever says it, off permanently. I should not have to state this as it is blatently obvious, but it was clearly members of the red team who attempted a coup, resulting in the need to fortify our government buildings. The narrative that this is necessary due to the left is so utterly stupid and oft repeated by the wonks here, that I seriously ponder the their ability to even think anymore.

  160. chicagofinance says:

    Did I write this? Hmmmm….

    chicagofinance says:
    March 8, 2021 at 4:22 pm
    Are you schizophrenic? WTF is this pair of posts?

    Bottom line…. I don’t care about the quality of your work, at least be consistent. If you have a discipline, stick to it. Don’t be all over the place. You have no idea whether this is the end of it, or we go down 20% more. So stick with your discipline.

  161. Juice Box says:

    Ugh…not the defend Trump but you folks do know you were played by the MSM back in April? The remarks posted above are out of context. I mentioned this in posts dating back to April/May when it first came up. There is research ongoing for inhalable drugs and even UV Light therapy to kill viruses and bacteria in the lungs.

    The context I mention is Trump’s statements came immediately after Bill Bryan, the former undersecretary at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), presented to the Media a recent government-funded study with preliminary research that found that the virus does not survive as long when exposed to heat, sunlight, and humidity.

    Trump also heard about the Cedars Sinai Hospital experiments that were announced three days before his press conference using the Aytu BioScience device that injects UV A light through an endotracheal catheter. Look it up because the MSM never talked about it. Trumps advisors told him all about the experimental studies.

    Here is the actual press conference where he discusses it, not the cherry picked works out of context. Sure he is a Buffon and acted that way his whole life, it would have been better if he let some other scientist medical professional talk about the experimental treatments but hey Trump is what he is, and you are what you are no surprise if you got played by the MSM. No go click on your ads and buy more stuff made in China the velocity of money is barely moving at 1.134, we need that to jump up to 2.0 to get the ball rolling on the recovery.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYJY_elndY8

  162. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    I’ll be the first to admit that both parties are BS and corrupt to the bone. But the narratives, at times, are so stupid.

    Absolute true story. The other day, we have Tucker Carlson on since we like to laugh at the bullshit. For the record, we do the same thing with Maddow. Well my son asks me, “Why does Tucker Carlson speak everything in the form of a question?” I explained that by making statements as questions, then you can lie with complete immunity. For example, “Did daddy just schtup the cleaning lady?” Or, “Did Biden just build a wall around the Capitol Building to keep out the Portland Moms?” Say it enough times, or just once, and people will believe it.

    Juice, before Trump was even in office, he made a game out of trying to destroy the credibility of the press/media. This is not how a sane person tries to fix things, even if he is right about the bias in the press.

  163. 3b says:

    And the Chinese carry out their destruction of the Uighurs, and the left here is still screaming about the Russians.

  164. chicagofinance says:

    You want a quick 150 bump? Sign your kid up to take the SAT in Paterson. Memo: it’s not the same SAT everywhere…… stealth padding with no detection.

    They know the difficulty of each question on the test. It is statistically measured. You don’t believe they would stab your kid in the back? Of course they would in a heartbeat, and feel justified in doing it.

    Libturd says:
    March 9, 2021 at 9:42 am
    No One.
    Thanks. I looked at Kranse and it’s interesting. My only issue with it is that my son would be surfing youtube or tik-tok while making believe he is listening to the lectures, much like he does in school now. Personally, I did the same as you. I went to Walden books and purchased one of those thick soft covered book of SAT practice tests. I did one a week for about three months. My score went up almost 100 points from PSAT to SAT. Though, this methodology won’t work well for my son. He is motivated to work really hard for everyone but me. Probably because, well, he is a teenager. Looking for more of a Kaplan, Princeton Review, varsitytutors type of setup, where he has to go in person, as his incentive to do the homework.

  165. JCer says:

    Trump is the most ridiculous man to ever grace the halls of the whitehouse. That being said despite the fact that things were running like a three ring circus, he didn’t mess anything up too badly.

    Even the the whole COVID situation was more of how he conducted himself and less about what was actually done, there was no magic bullet and Americans were never going to take to lock downs like the Chinese of Northern Europeans. We were always going to be more like Italy or Spain and less like Germany or Norway. Italy was so ridiculous you had politicians calling people out over breaking lock downs, for most of the begining of the pandemic people were routinely breaking the quarantine zones. They eventually had to take very drastic measures forcing things closed, fining people for leaving their homes, etc. It didn’t really help much.

    Frankly I’m glad we don’t have to see the Trump circus on a daily basis but I am dismayed by the the democrats are doing. When 75 million Americans suspect irregularities in the election and people are disillusioned and think the elections lack integrity, what do the democrats do? Why they advance legislation that more or less formalizes fraud! I’m sorry given the distrust and what happened we should be trying to build confidence in the legitimacy of the last election and future elections, between this and the supreme court not hearing cases around non-legislative election procedural changes I have real concerns. If you despise Trump, like him or are indifferent, what has happened should dismay all patriotic Americans. I’m sorry if voter id, registration, and integrity checks are “racist”, so is math.

  166. No One says:

    I never understood the cult of personality that Trump got. (Keep in mind this is a small minority of people who actually voted for him, just as I suspect only a small minority of people who voted for Biden are genuinely thrilled with Biden.) Most sane people over the past 5 years voted either “Not Hillary”, “Not Biden” or “Not Trump.” No decent person should have ever been enthusiastic about any of these choices.

    Trump has for decades been willing to throw his supporters and employees under the bus when they were no longer useful to him. Look at how he used Roy Cohn going way back. Or Ivana. The guy has always been a narcissist, and not a “borderline” case. These followers can see the bodies of former henchmen on the side of the road of his past, yet they still tell themselves “Trump will be loyal to me, he thinks I’m special”.

    The rioters appeared to be a bunch of losers, some of whom seem to have mental problems. Normal people don’t dress like a Shaman or a druid. That’s like the equivalent of the lefty with a bunch of face piercings, or plastic surgery to turn into a dragon-face. A competent security force would have swept them up quickly before they got themselves into so much trouble. A real insurrection is done like the way Chavez did it in Venezuela or Castro in Cuba. Guns and military/ex-military backed by a big chunk of the population.

  167. Libturd says:

    JCer,

    From my perch and due to common sense, this was probably the least likely election to be fraudulent. Why? Because mail in ballots are more scrutinized than those voting machines.

    There was something like 40 cases of supposed fraud put forth by Trump and 39 were proven untrue. At what point does the truth matter. This whole stolen election thing wreaks of poor gamesmanship.

    It shouldn’t be that hard to accept that Trump turned a lot of sane people off. What might need investigating is how he received as many votes as he did.

  168. 3b says:

    I am glad the Trump circus is over. But seriously, Joe Biden as President? Zero enthusiasm, he is a bought and paid for corrupt politician. And there are legitimate questions regarding his mental capacities.

  169. ExEssex says:

    JCer ur full of shit per the usual.

  170. No One says:

    Chifi,
    You think that’s really true about Patterson or similar areas?

    In this day and age I can actually believe it. The College Board is desperate to figure out a way not to get cancelled after decades of revealing that no matter how hard they try to dumb down their test, to take out grammar, etc., average scores for some races keep on being lower than others.
    They were even talking about throwing in a “privilege” curve into the test a couple years ago but backed off that I think. Indian and Chinese families are the big losers from throwing out the SATs, but a lot of the top schools are already putting them on a race curve.

    I just read Tom Wolfe’s book “This is Charlotte Simmons” and I recommend it for any parent of a kid about to enter or recently entering college. I’m suggesting my freshman daughter read it as well. Too bad it’s already about 20 years out of date and that Tom Wolfe has passed away. A young Tom Wolfe would have a field day with the current cultural situation. Anyone else know of a good novel critiquing current campus life and ideology?

  171. Juice Box says:

    Lib – re: “fortified with a wall due to Biden” and “ability to even think anymore”

    The last year has been one for the books but historically it was really nothing compared to what the boomers did down in Washington DC when they were young in 1971 or in again still holding a grudge in 1983. I blame the boomers for the current state of affairs including the new fences, fortifications, troops on the ground around Washington DC.

    The two main culprits in my opinion are Trump and Pelosi, who refused to even talk and rise above any of it, they instead fanned the flames during a crisis. It would have been a different year perhaps if Pelosi caught Covid in Chinatown last February and took the final dirt nap and Trump also took his final dirt nap due to his many super spreader events, more moderate people might have changed the trajectory of things and we could be further along with our vaccinations and reopening the economy.

    However it is what it is……here we are still alive and breathing. It’s going to be a sunny 58 degrees soon and the snow is almost all gone, time for a bit of vitamin D.

  172. Juice Box says:

    Politics is all fun and games until they come for you on the other side of the National Mall.

    Between the left attacking the White House in May and the right attacking the Capitol in January we now have a place the 8th graders can no longer visit. I remember meeting Bob Torricelli on the steps of the Capitol for our class picture. He even handed out commemorative pins, we also had the tour of the White House and joked with the Secret Service that we wanted to see upstairs. Will children ever get to visit anymore or is it going to be some fortified no man’s land for the next decade or two?

  173. BRT says:

    Juice, the college board has been experimenting with different tests for years in every subject. In AP Physics, they give out 4 different tests. I get the report on student performance. Most of the time, everyone at a school gets the same test.

    6 years ago, a group of 150 AP Physics students at m school got two different tests. 50/50 split. If you look at the performance, students in one group performed 30% worse than students in the other. Two possible conclusions:

    1. One group was smarter than the other over 150 students randomly selected.
    2. The tests were dramatically different in difficulty.

    The actual people who wrote the tests claim they are equal, despite the stats nationwide pointing to the opposite. Since then, they stopped releasing the stats to us in workshops to pick apart their BS.

  174. BRT says:

    that last post was directed to chi and noone

  175. ExEssex says:

    Chi I believe that “this” is what you are referring to:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2zMrjBLwn8

  176. Juice Box says:

    I am surprised nobody mentioned that the exams are racially and culturally biased.

    Oh wait I did.

  177. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Quantum Hits the Markets
    IonQ Inc., a College Park, Md.-based quantum-computing startup, said it plans file paperwork in the weeks ahead with the Securities and Exchange Commission to go public on the New York Stock Exchange, making it the first publicly traded company focused wholly on commercializing quantum-computing hardware and software, WSJ’s Sara Castellanos reports.

    Faster AI. By harnessing the power of quantum physics, quantum computers offer the promise of jumping complex algorithmic calculations for AI applications into hyperspace.

    Big competitors. Among other contenders, IonQ competes with International Business Machines Corp., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc.’s Google and D-Wave Systems Inc., though to date no scalable, commercial-grade quantum computer has been built.

    Quantum Era Is Coming

    Corporate technology leaders will need to help their companies harness the potential of quantum computing, as AI and other use cases appear, according to Dario Gil, senior vice president and director of IBM Research, WSJ’s Jared Council reports.

    A game changer. IBM is eyeing 2023 as the release date for a key quantum system that will allow engineers to mitigate errors through software, as opposed to only through hardware.

    Big steps ahead. “This is going to be the decade in which quantum really comes of age,” said Mr. Gil said last week at The Wall Street Journal’s virtual CIO Network summit.

    Are Robots Taking Over?

    Kai-Fu Lee, chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures recently spoke with WSJ’s Jared Council at the Journal’s virtual CIO Network summit about the many ways AI will change the way companies operate. That includes the impact of software automation and robotics on workers. Here are some edited excerpts of his thoughts on the issue:

    The more successful you are with your AI, you’re potentially replacing jobs and displacing jobs that may cause reduction in force, so that has to be taken into consideration.

    I think we all would prefer to look mainly at the way AI increases profit margins rather than focus on job displacement. But, by and large, AI is designed to do tasks and things that people do. So, more and more significant portions of the AI tasks will have an impact on human jobs.

    Keep in mind, technological progress has always replaced jobs. This one is going to be larger than before. In preparation for this, as an adviser to the CEO, it would be great if you could suggest what is the proper way, what is the likelihood that various tasks will get replaced, and really work out a way to do it that’s sensitive to employees.

    And start the retraining. As the jobs go away, help place them in the right new jobs that they’ve got training for.

  178. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Start investing, the robots are coming, and a lot of people are going to be left to live off the govt.

    Buy a multi first, if you can. It guarantees you can have a home to fall back if you lose your job that also generates an income.

  179. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Delivery startup takes IPO route. Deliveroo, an Amazon. com Inc.-backed food delivery startup that has dabbled in the use of AI for rapid customer-identity checks, filed paperwork Monday for an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange, with an expected value of around $10 billion. (The Wall Street Journal)

    Navigating an imperfect world. A deep-learning algorithm developed by MIT researchers uses gaming techniques to help AI systems in autonomous vehicles identify and correct for “adversarial” inputs, such as a sudden glitch in onboard cameras or other corrupt data. (MIT Review)

    An extra set of eyes. The U.S. 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit in Okinawa, Japan, is testing an AI-powered tool designed to act as an attention-warning system for foot-patrol soldiers of surrounding threats, leveraging similar technology used in smart vehicles to alert drivers of lane changes or busy highways ahead. (Marine Times)

    Faster food robots. Lee’s Famous Recipe, an Englewood, Ohio, fast-food restaurant, has deployed a Siri-like virtual assistant to automate the process of taking drive-through orders, which have surged during the pandemic, helping to lower waiting times, the restaurant says. (Dayton.com)

    Ask Michelangelo. The Opera di Santa Maria del Fiore, or Florence Cathedral, in Florence, Italy, has deployed a smart-software tool named Michelangelo AI that answers users’ questions about Renaissance art, while learning from interactions to develop communication skills by picking up new terms and knowledge. (The Florentine)

    Moving moving pictures. Deep Nostalgia, an AI pool offered by online genealogy platform MyHeritage, uses a deep-learning algorithm to animate old photos of departed loved ones, historic figures or works of art, by applying predetermined movements to their facial features. (CNN)

  180. No One says:

    https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2019/09/24/minority-and-first-generation-sat-scores-fall-behind

    The difference of averages between 920 and 1220 is massive.
    Where do kids learn their vocabulary and language skills? Mostly parents and family.
    Parents also set the academic expectations for their kids.

    I wonder what the average SATs of the teachers are in different school systems. Compare/contrast teacher scores in the Patterson public school system vs the Milburn public school system. We can see the data for the kids. We don’t see the data for the teachers’ SATs.

  181. Libturd says:

    I think it’s all the influence of money on politicians. Barney Frank was particularly deplorable as was Phil Graham. Completely opinionated of course, but I think NAFTA was probably the real beginning of the end of a government worth saving. Then Bush/Cheney with their war profits. Obama, I really think meant good for the country, but of course had an obligation to help try to balance the playing field for the blacks and then caught up in the porkulous game. Trump was in it for one person and one person only. Himself. And he loved every minute of the spotlight. Always has and always will. And then Biden, perhaps the worst of them all as he is the king of the corporate grift mill. I haven’t taken the time to read the big bill yet, but I’m certain a lot of blue states are going to get an awful lot of spending money on projects with questionable need and dubious relation to Covid. Though, I’m sure he’s not as sharp as he once might have been. I’m not sending him out to pasture just yet though. Already, the newsmakers are looking for every example of it though, much like the left press made fun of Trump walking slowly down a ramp or drinking a glass of water slowly. On Tucker, I caught one example where Biden said something like, “where were we now,” which people commonly say when temporarily sidetracked in a conversation and return back to the subject. Of course, to the Trumpee crowd, it’s obviously time to call in Dr. Kevorkian.

    If anything, the collective stupidity of political junkies have reached a critical mass. Like their political heros, it’s reached the point where they are even willing to forgo common sense to proliferate a lie further. I truly believe the only way we can save our country would be to throw every single one of them out and start a new party from scratch. For when they are so emboldened that they are willing to lie to your face, there is something horribly wrong with the populace that keeps them in office. Perhaps the worst offender of this out of all of them being Mitch McConnel. This guy flip flops more than sandals on a millipede. Yet he’s still the minority leader? Really, it’s just a giant group of corrupt assholes who pride themselves on who gets caught cheating less often than the next.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why don’t you come teach in the ghetto and help raise the scores?

    No One says:
    March 9, 2021 at 12:32 pm
    https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2019/09/24/minority-and-first-generation-sat-scores-fall-behind

    The difference of averages between 920 and 1220 is massive.
    Where do kids learn their vocabulary and language skills? Mostly parents and family.
    Parents also set the academic expectations for their kids.

    I wonder what the average SATs of the teachers are in different school systems. Compare/contrast teacher scores in the Patterson public school system vs the Milburn public school system. We can see the data for the kids. We don’t see the data for the teachers’ SATs.

  183. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And the answer is….you won’t. You won’t do that tough of a job for that little amount of money. Put your life on the line for 60k-70k for half of your career. So be grateful some people do.

    It’s like the talking mouths crying to open up urban schools. You want to break up fights during a covid pandemic? I didn’t think so.

  184. Libturd says:

    The only thing that matters is how well off the parents are. Repeat that over and over until you get it.

    It doesn’t matter if the student is black, white, Indian or Australian. It’s the amount of attention parents care about and can spend helping their child with their education that matters.

    Do good educators prefer to work in better performing schools? Hell yes. But the school is better performing due to the students’ parents. Not the students’ teachers. This has been proven in study after study after study.

  185. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Worried that the Robot teachers are already here?

  186. JCer says:

    Lib, numbers don’t lie. The dems had a very strong “ground game” in certain swing states that decided the election. What occurred bordered on ballot harvesting in many of those places. The voter turnout is bonkers, you expect me to honestly believe a Trump vs. Biden race brought out more voters than ever before? It likely does not change the outcome of the election but it still warrants investigation to assuage the concerns of millions of voters.

    My issue is more around the total disregard for rule of law, COVID did not give bureaucrats the right to change election rules and procedures. This should not have been allowed. The big thing is now trying to change the law to mandate loose election standards after an election with lots of accusations, the optics look very bad.

    Lib it’s a misnomer that 39 of 40 were dis-proven, almost every case has been tossed on lack of standing or procedural grounds. Frankly pull the band-aid off, the electorate is concerned so do an audit and investigation, put those fears to rest. If the election had the integrity you suspect it did nothing will be found….but frankly those mail in ballots had a lot of issues around chain of custody, amazon has more security and tracking on your laundry detergent than most secretary of state’s had around the ballots. The narrative about state sponsored actors, hacked machines, etc was a big distraction. The thing to look for is Hudson county/Chicago style corruption by low level people in places like Detroit, Atlanta, Milwaukee. I’m going to say it again those places had nearly 100% voter participation, I could offer free money in Detroit and not get 100% participation!

    And yes almost every politician is scum, out for themselves somehow…..

  187. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s all combination, Lib. Good teachers, are good teachers. If you had idiots teaching at Millburn, how would those kids learn? They would eat the teacher up and have their parents spit em out.

  188. JCer says:

    Also to clarify further the voter turnout only deviates from historical norms in the swing states, it’s statistically improbable.

  189. 3b says:

    And robots don’t need office space in Manhattan.

  190. Libturd says:

    Just one clarification. I’m not saying that better teachers do not aid in providing better outcomes. Everything is measurable. Sadly, SES, by far, continues to be the largest contributing factor to eventual success, even when measured against genetics. Want to help your grandkids? Leave them a hefty inheritance.

  191. JCer says:

    pumps, the teachers in Millburn have an easy job. What ever shortcomings the teachers have would be covered by the parents tutors. In general intelligent parents tend to have intelligent children. So we are talking about a school full of kids who predominately have above average intelligence and access to any and all resources as well as parents h*ll bent on their kids academic success. Yo could straight up trade the teachers with a failing school in Newark and it likely barely moves the needle on their test scores…..

  192. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Parents def make the difference. That’s why you can’t fix urban schools. Big missing ingredient.

  193. Libturd says:

    JCer, you are making some really large assumptions. Here is my largest assumption. There is no greater driver of voter participation than paying homage to white supremacists. Besides the regular voters. It brings out the neo nazis and really gets out the black vote. So who is left?

    Also, there have been elections where I didn’t bother to vote. The proliferation of mail-in ballots made it so much easier. So much so that those who formerly didn’t bother, especially due to SES issues, such as having to pay for a bus or cab to get to the polls, could now vote for free.

    Nothing personal, but I honestly think you are looking for something where nothing exists. It’s just excuse, after excuse, after excuse.

  194. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The ones that want out of the poverty cycle, make it out. They overcome the absent parents. The rest, just don’t care. That’s why the scores are so bad. The schools really aren’t failing, they are teaching the kids that want to learn, but too bad the other kids destroy the school avgs. It’s sad. No ambition or motivation to better themselves through education. Just waste the opportunity.

  195. Libturd says:

    This reminds me of a funny story. Our older son had an absolutely fantastic Spanish teacher in eighth grade. On back to school night, which I hate attending, but begrudgingly attend nearly every year, his Spanish teacher explains how she used to teach in Paterson but is so overwhelmingly happy to be teaching Spanish here in Glen Ridge. She then went on to explain how she will work her absolute hardest to stay here and to direct any issues, large or small, directly to her. She also mentioned that most of her seventh graders new Spanish better than those in Paterson. Just think about that. 67% of their high school is latinx. Oh I hate that term.

  196. Libturd says:

    JCer, it’s not statistically improbable in the swing states. It’s more likely, as those are the states where people feel their votes will actually count. I’m sure swing states also were more likely to move to mail-in ballots, once again playing into the Democrat’s hands where SES issues formerly drove down the vote.

    Like I said, it’s nothing personal. But there is just nothing there for this premise to have legs. Anecdotally, the number of Trump signs I saw my way to OBX this past Summer were significantly less than in 2016. Why is it so possible for Republicans to believe Trump lost fair and square? I called it long before the election. And I was one of the few who called for a possible Trump win in 2016.

  197. Libturd says:

    Finally, in many of the swing states, the voter had to request a mail-in ballot. It wasn’t automatically sent. Now who would ask for a mail-in ballot and not turn it in?

  198. No One says:

    Libturd,
    It’s not always true about the wealth of the parents. I know of plenty of stories of Chinese immigrant parents with crappy English and not much money who sent their kids to not the best public schools and through force of expectations and family emphasis still their kids were way above average in school. That’s not genetics or income, that’s cultural values and parenting. And a bunch of those poor parents then later demanded that those kids also took care of them after they started making money, another part of the culture. Treating their kids as long-term investments.

    In contrast, as a kid born in the 70s, I was around some kids who were born because they were a guaranteed government welfare check addition. That’s where the 36-year old grandmas parked their Pontiac Grand Prix in the front. They didn’t care much how their kids did in school, or what happened after the check ran out after they grew up.

  199. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s a nice story. Happy for her.

    Paterson will wear you down quickly. I had to do my student teaching at East Side High School. So many wild stories, but I pulled through. That place is tough.

    Libturd says:
    March 9, 2021 at 1:17 pm
    This reminds me of a funny story. Our older son had an absolutely fantastic Spanish teacher in eighth grade. On back to school night, which I hate attending, but begrudgingly attend nearly every year, his Spanish teacher explains how she used to teach in Paterson but is so overwhelmingly happy to be teaching Spanish here in Glen Ridge. She then went on to explain how she will work her absolute hardest to stay here and to direct any issues, large or small, directly to her. She also mentioned that most of her seventh graders new Spanish better than those in Paterson. Just think about that. 67% of their high school is latinx. Oh I hate that term.

  200. JCer says:

    If you want to see it in action just look here in Maplewood, same schools, same curriculum, same teachers, same facilities, 3 grades difference between the black and white students! It gets even worse as the Hilton school has been given more and more resources to try to close the gap but it doesn’t seem to matter even when sent to other schools in district the difference persists. Now they are moving to bus children around even more and I doubt it changes anything, the only thing that will help is the gentrification of Maplehood. The level of educational attainment the parents have is a good predictor of how the children will do.

  201. Hold my beer says:

    Another micro managing governor getting looked into

    https://nypost.com/2021/03/09/michigans-whitmer-may-face-charges-over-nursing-home-deaths/

    I believe she forbid people from shopping for non groceries in target and Walmart and banned boating. Because sitting on a 10,000 acre lake on your bass boat you would be so likely to catch covid. Meanwhile her hubby called their marina to get their boat ready. She’s as bad as that hypocrite in California.

  202. Libturd says:

    They all suck. They really do. Every single one of them.

  203. JCer says:

    Lib the point is people are concerned, why not thoroughly debunk the claims? We spent millions investigating Russian collusion which turned out to be a big lie. Shouting loudly their was no voter fraud proves nothing nor does claiming there was prove there was. Audit the areas in question around full chain of custody, signature, and eligibility audit in the questioned areas. See exactly what happened. Also that does nothing to address blatant violations of state election laws. I think we can agree to disagree.

  204. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nailed it.

    It’s about how the parents value education. Do they hold their children accountable? Do they teach them the importance of being educated? Do they show by example the importance of working hard instead of sitting on the couch?

    JCer says:
    March 9, 2021 at 1:45 pm
    If you want to see it in action just look here in Maplewood, same schools, same curriculum, same teachers, same facilities, 3 grades difference between the black and white students! It gets even worse as the Hilton school has been given more and more resources to try to close the gap but it doesn’t seem to matter even when sent to other schools in district the difference persists. Now they are moving to bus children around even more and I doubt it changes anything, the only thing that will help is the gentrification of Maplehood. The level of educational attainment the parents have is a good predictor of how the children will do.

  205. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The Marxist equity movement is working to abolish standardized tests and placement. Instead many local school boards look to be shifting to Ivy League style racial quotas. That will of course be devastating to strivers groups.

  206. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    I said the over under on Biden being cashiered is one year.

    I’ll take the under. His decline is so precipitous. It looks to be advanced dementia. Can’t remember names, figures or event the day of the week.

    I doubt he’ll ever have a press conference. They have to hide him to prop up the hoax.

    And then they’ll have to contrive an even bigger hoax for why Kamala will become president. once you start lying the way the left does with the never ending hoaxes you need an even bigger one to cover the last.

    Biden winning was a whopper. I can only imagine what they will come up with next.

  207. BRT says:

    If you had idiots teaching at Millburn, how would those kids learn? They would eat the teacher up and have their parents spit em out.

    You do have some crappy teachers at Millburn. And their parents pay me $100 an hour to make up for it.

  208. Fast Eddie says:

    Biden winning was a whopper. I can only imagine what they will come up with next.

    It’s becoming a satire even the Monty Python crew could admire… or envy.

  209. nomad says:

    Not sure how any of you view Art Berman but he is a geologist and writes about the petroleum industry. Some time ago, he said there was not enough oil production (not fracked) which led to the spike of gas prices as apparently, setting up rigs for non-frack oil takes more time.

    I though he said at one point the fracked oil mostly gets exported and not used to make gas but my memory probably wrong on this.

    https://twitter.com/aeberman12

  210. Dink says:

    JCer says:
    March 9, 2021 at 1:01 pm
    Also to clarify further the voter turnout only deviates from historical norms in the swing states, it’s statistically improbable.

    This is not even close to being true and it is very easy to just look up the numbers for yourself to validate. So obviously you are basing your entire premise on some faulty numbers either because of innumeracy or gullibility. There’s nothing anyone can possibly do to debunk these claims or qualm the concerns of people who trot out nonsense like this.

    Also, I thought the CIA rigged every election anyway.

  211. 3b says:

    Many of us first generation immigrant kids, had parents with the equivalent of about a 6th grade education. And many of us went to Catholic Schools with 35 to 40 kids in a class. Most of us all did well , college degree or higher, or if not well paying trades or police and fire departments retiring as Sargents , Captains, Lieutenants etc. When we got our Report Cards first thing they looked at was Conduct and Effort. Conduct had better be an A, and nothing lower than a B for Effort, and even that might warrant punishment. So schools/ teachers are only part of it. The whole honest conversation has to be had, or the gap will remain and only widen.

  212. Bear says:

    BidenIsTheGOAT says:
    Instead many local school boards look to be shifting to Ivy League style racial quotas.

    Both admission and scholarships.

  213. Fast Eddie says:

    Pepé Le Pew is now a rap1st. How laughable and insane is the progressive left? Who or what will they blame tomorrow for their miserable f.ucking existence? You have a demented man in the White House accused of s.xual assault and it’s ignored but cartoons and toys are deemed insulting and insensitive. Liberal1sm is a disease.

  214. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The left is not going to have that conversation. They’ve adopted Marxism under the premise of racial justice wth BLM leading the way. A very clever trick.

    They will instead say it’s the governments job to fix it all. They want he government to take over the role of parents. They even had it in the BLM website until it hurt donating.
    But don’t kids yourself, it’s still the plan.

  215. democratnomore says:

    Libturd,

    Regarding SAT prep, I went two different routes with kids. If your child took the test with very little prep, simply taking several practice tests and familiarizing themselves with the test might be sufficient to gain the extra fifty points. The higher the score, the more difficult it is to gain 50 points.
    Child 1. End Score 1520
    Test taken twice with the exact same result.
    Green Test Prep was good but requires a great deal of motivation. Unfortunately, I ended driving this prep which wasn’t great for the relationship.
    The Reading portion was the hardest for the first child. I came up with the following idea and it worked. She would take one passage of the SAT practice reading portion then grade herself. Once complete she read the answer in the Official SAT Study Guide AND the answer in the SAT Prep Black Book. She did this for four SAT practice test. She read the answers for all of the answers regardless of whether she had a correct or incorrect answer.
    In terms of the math section, I graded them and looked for patterns of questions answered incorrectly. We did find that she had not learned a certain subject by doing this and my husband then closed the gap for her. Once this was done, it was smooth sailing.
    Child 2. End Score 1500 on SAT
    Only taken once because of Covid cancellations but did end up a National Merit Finalist which opens up amazing scholarships including a full ride to U. of Alabama
    Y2 Academy: (Expensive) This is not for the faint of heart but it worked for my son who had trouble breaking 700 in the math section.
    The good thing about the new SAT is that it is not an IQ test. Studying for the test had long-term benefits for both kids and this is their own assessment.

  216. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    In terms of incursions into parenting. NJ schools next year are starting s3xual indoctrination at the kindergarten level. You knew it was coming. 9 year olds in middle school is too late. This is a step towards pefophilia plain and simple. It’s just a matter of time before they start advocating for it openly.

  217. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    Now we were talking. We just got rid of the Upperclass Twit of the Presidency. Biden is “”It’s” man?

  218. Fast Eddie says:

    There’s a clock on my desk with Roman numerals. Why Roman numerals? It’s offensive and rac1st because it’s favoritism and portrays an aggressive, authoritarian message. The clock face needs to be discreet, non-identifiable, gender-neutral tick marks. I’m writing to the company and to the NY Times.

  219. JCer says:

    Dink you are letting your bias show. Look at the numbers. I did not communicate my thoughts clearly. What one would expect is if in 2016 statewide turnout is 60% and in 2020 statewide turnout is 70% one would expect to see a somewhat uniform increase across the districts. What one sees is peculiar, look at the red/blue maps of the deciding states, an insanely small number of counties were the deciding factor and their turnout FAR exceeds what one would expect based on the confluence of historical trending and the trends in 2020.

    Then dig in by county, you will get to places running anywhere from 80-90% voter turnout when the overall state runs a 60-65%. And we are not talking about small districts we are talking about huge urban districts…..So most places in the state follow the overall trend but you see big disparity in a limited number of counties.

    Dink it’s very easy audit the results, was there a signature verification, do you have chain of custody for the ballots, do the ballots belong to eligible voters, were they received in time? Again there is this narrative and as someone who deals in data for a living, the pattern is atypical, as was stopping the count in the wee hours and the fake broken pipe in the Atlanta counting center. There should be transparency, accountability, and honesty in our electoral process, which also means following the election laws. It is probably nothing or very minor but until we look into it we do not know if there is any legitimacy to the claims from the Trump camp.

  220. Bystander says:

    FYI Gator, JCer, 30 year..thanks for help on tax appeal. Talk about a non-event. I went in prepared with talking points, comps etc. Guy was a volunteer who could barely figure out getting right field card. I had to correct him on data twice. No questions at all. Just data gathering and now I will wait for quorum to decide. Guessing I will get zilch in reduction.

  221. democratnomore says:

    correction
    She read the answers for all of the questions regardless of whether her response was correct/incorrect.

    How can a school close an education gap when the gap is present at kindergarten?

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190404074947.htm#:~:text=Young%20children%20whose%20parents%20read,in%20vocabulary%20and%20reading%20development.
    “Young children whose parents read them five books a day enter kindergarten having heard about 1.4 million more words than kids who were never read to, a new study found.

    This “million word gap” could be one key in explaining differences in vocabulary and reading development, said Jessica Logan, lead author of the study and assistant professor of educational studies at The Ohio State University.

    Even kids who are read only one book a day will hear about 290,000 more words by age 5 than those who don’t regularly read books with a parent or caregiver.

    “Kids who hear more vocabulary words are going to be better prepared to see those words in print when they enter school,” said Logan, a member of Ohio State’s Crane Center for Early Childhood Research and Policy.”

  222. Bystander says:

    Guy was probably 70 and completely chill. They must choose people who are very non-threatening. The most interesting tidbit for me was when I asked how many tax appeals they are doing. He said during a usual reval year anout 150-200 appeals. He said well over 600 this year. Insanity.

  223. No One says:

    Another tip for testers, try out both the ACT and SAT. Some kids are better than one vs the other. My daughter prepped most of the time for SAT. I think she maxxed out at 1490. But then she got a 33 on the ACT on her first try, which is pretty equivalent to her SAT score. If she had spent more time prepping on the ACT maybe she could have gotten a 34.

  224. JCer says:

    Bystander if you think you have a good case it might be worth filing an appeal. Towns hate going to superior court and they might settle, also the courts are so backed up it likely will not be heard until next year! So there is plenty of time to settle.

  225. Bear says:

    Will the recent increase in mortgage rates slow down purchases by first time home buyers?

  226. Bystander says:

    JCer,

    I probably don’t. If this reval took place only 10m ago then would be different story. Completing it in Oct 2020 after the crazy run-up in summer/fall. I just don’t see a case now. I had to glean some ridiculous comps. My old ar&ehole neighbor really took it on chin. Sold in Jan 2020 for 50k less than he paid in 2014 new. Put another 60K into it so well over $120k loss with fees. He sells it today and probably gets 900K instead of $835k.

  227. Libturd says:

    JCer,

    I’m into statistics as well. If there is one thing that stood out in this election, it’s that if voters are given a mail-in ballot, they are extremely likely to vote. If it were up to me, all elections would be mail-in. As for chain of custody, something I am extremely familiar with between my six-sigma/LEAN training as well as expertise in variable print. I think the chain of custody is actually weaker in in person voting. How hard is it to forge a signature? There is no ID check and the senior citizens who work the polls can barely verify a signature, let alone find a signature card that is stored in alphabetical order. From what I read, the the mail in ballots were essentially checked three times, where the in person votes only had one check.

    I would also argue that it’s hard to perform an audit when there is nothing to find. I run into this a lot at work. Some kind of workflow might not be producing a result, so instinctively, it’s the fault of the computer where the automated workflow is performing. Sure, when IT messes with our servers, they often don’t restart all of the services. But more often than not, there is something wrong with the file that is breaking the workflow.

    Mail in ballots have existed since long before either of us were born. The broken pipe myth has been debunked ten times over. There is simply no evidence whatsoever of fraud occurring. Every single case of fraud was proven to be false and in nearly every case, reported by an overzealous Trump disciple who couldn’t possibly have it any other way. Heck, I remember one affidavit that said there were improprieties at a county that didn’t even exist! I will be the first to admit, where there is smoke, there can be fire. But the only smoke here has been oft repeated, completely fabricated lies. If anything, the evidence shows that Trump was fraudulent, when you listen to the recordings of the calls he made to reps in Georgia and his threats against his own appointed VP. Sure we can disagree. But I honestly think you are lock stock and barrel crazy with this one. A lie repeated is no evidence of truth.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/16/fact-check-claim-ga-vote-spike-biden-after-pipe-burst-false/3879081001/

  228. Libturd says:

    Thanks all for the SAT advice. Honestly, it’s more about obtaining scholarship and less about attending a selective college with this one. I am very lucky that he understands completely the value proposition that a less prestigious college represents. Honestly, the multi was our college savings vehicle. Last I zillowed it, it was valued at 600K, so we’ll be okay wherever he ends up going. But I’ll probably strike a reasonable deal with him that if he maintains a > 4.0 and he goes to a cheaper school, I’ll give him the surplus for a home downpayment or similar when he gets out of college if he continues to work hard.

  229. Bystander says:

    All eyes on GA for control of Senate. Voter fraud accusations are non-stop, pressured calls to Republican legislature to maintain oversight and fairness. Orange f&ckface goes on personal campaign to ensure Dems don’t get control. Clown goes 0-2. Tell us more how unfair it was. He was crazy, he sucked as leader and majority of people were tired of vindictiveness, stupidity and lies. You put a old blue stump up there like Biden and he wins? You put a decent younger candidate up there and he would have crushed Dumpy. He was a horrible candidate but a hair better than the clown. Dem power brokers wanted old school, corp controlled leader, rolled the dice and won. Move on.

  230. joyce says:

    I think the likelihood of voter fraud is very small, especially on a scale necessary to affect a state or national election (there are stories of local races every now and again).

    I would focus on other controls and safeguards in place, not signature verification. Does a 40-60-80 year old person’s signature look identical to what it was when they were 18? Does every jurisdiction employ numerous forensic handwriting experts?

  231. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup.

    “Everything all flows back to Tech eventually. This rotation will be short lived again. Tech is where the innovation and high CAGR for America 2.0 will be for the most part for the next decade plus. Creative destruction will continue to kill off many more non adapting S&P companies. Value investing may never be the same.”

  232. Libturd says:

    You don’t even “get” what Value investing is.

  233. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I do. It’s buying undervalued assets. Problem is, the pace of change doesn’t allow for many comeback stories. It eats them alive.

    Buffett would have never made his fortune in this market. It’s all different. Understanding this is key to making money now.

  234. Dink says:

    “What one sees is peculiar, look at the red/blue maps of the deciding states, an insanely small number of counties were the deciding factor and their turnout FAR exceeds what one would expect based on the confluence of historical trending and the trends in 2020”

    Again, another assertion with no citation and zero statistical backing except probably from psuedo-statistician conspiracy theorist posters on zerohedge or some other hacky site preying on gullible people or people who are just too innumerate themselves to understand they have practically no statistical knowledge whatsoever. Why dont you point to some of these large urban counties in swing states that had near 90% voter turnout that turned the election. Its an insanely small amount you say so it should be easy. You cant because it doesnt exist. You are just making stuff up or just passing on what others make up. Your whole post is like a Trumptardian mad lib of conspriacy theories touted by the likes of the my pillow guy and other deranged trumpers.

  235. Juice Box says:

    Wow Dink is still around, I thought by now you would have fled from this corner of the Universe. Welcome back again right! This ride is going to be fun, and please treat it as a ride and get off if you feel nauseous.

    I am not sure why people are still hung up on the election, so anyway give it time, just a bit more time folks, it rally heals all wounds or they just die as we print our way to our next soteriological release.

    Anyway…..going to contribute, last time…. I know there was voter fraud. I know it for a fact, as I have seen it in my lifetime. JCer correct me if I am wrong but you spent a few years in Hoboken like me, so paying for votes and well voter fraud exists and there is really no denying it.

    I do agree however it was not enough to change the election, yes fraud but not enough to change the results…

    Please stop folks on the election. We should move on…

  236. walking says:

    I wonder if any of us have seen this man on our potholed highways? NJ man tries to outrun police in Florida Keys..

    A New Jersey man remained in Monroe County jail Monday after deputies say he was speeding on U.S. 1 in the northern part of the island chain Sunday afternoon, at one time reaching speeds of at least 130 mph.

    A sheriff’s office deputy first noticed Jordan Capellan-Lopez riding his BMW motorcycle with three other bikers around 3:25 p.m. near mile marker 96. They were driving north, speeding and weaving in and out of traffic, according to the sheriff’s office. Two of them broke off from the pack, accelerating to almost 90 mph, according to the sheriff’s office.

    The deputy turned on his flashing lights and sirens to try to make them pull over. One biker slowed down, but Capellan-Lopez sped off on his bike, popping a wheelie at more than 100 mph, the deputy stated in his report.

    The sheriff’s office usually calls off chases on U.S. 1 for safety reasons. Rather, they typically call ahead to other deputies down the road, who try to stop the fleeing vehicles, sometimes laying down strips of spikes as a last resort. Deputies need permission from their supervisors to engage in high-speed pursuits.

    In this case, they didn’t have to. Deputies say Capellan-Lopez lost control of his BMW at mile marker 99. His bike left the highway and crashed through some landscaping in front of a bank

  237. chicagofinance says:

    Walking….. possibly…
    STOLEN PORSCHE HIGH SPEED ON ROUTE 9, FR TWP, MANAL, MARL, 9:30PM, MAR 8, 2021.. .
    .
    .This is a white Porsche SUV stolen in Jackson traveling at high speed on Rt. 9 North.

    Manalapan police and Fr Twp police are following (but not chasing) the vehicle at ONE HUNDRED TWENTY MILES PER HOUR.

    It is seconds away from being in Marlboro on Rt. 9

    Be alert for the vehicle and any police that may be following it.

  238. chicagofinance says:

    Must be a Springsteen fan…..

  239. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Tesla is a bet on the long term and Exxon is a bet on the short term. Last year, in­vestors were con­vinced to look to the long run by a com­bi­na­tion of aw­ful short-run prospects and the Fed­eral Re­serve’s crush­ing of in­ter­est rates and bond yields. Since No­vember, in­vestors have in­creas­ingly fo­cused on short-run prof­its as both trends re­verse, al­though on Tues­day the sen­si­tiv­ity to Trea­surys showed up in the other di­rec­tion as a sharp drop in yields helped Tesla stock leap 20%.”

    “My view is that even af­ter the big gains for cycli­cals and bombed-out stocks, and big losses for the growth stocks, there is prob­a­bly fur­ther to go as life re­turns to nor­mal. But the scale of the moves means I’m a lot less sure of fur­ther gains for the Exxons of the world.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/sell-tesla-buy-exxon-explains-the-market-11615302940?st=n5tzfsbsu4jtf2k&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  240. JCer says:

    Juice not really hung up on the election, just totally shocked by what the democrats are trying to do with HR1. Yes I spent a bunch of time in Hudson county, I’ve seen voter fraud up close and personal and we know for a fact there were massive irregularities in Paterson when they went to mail in voting. If we are going to have universal mail in voting we need to have a much tighter process that significantly reduces the opportunities for fraud. It is imperative that there is confidence in our system and when there is an election it is best for there to be a clear and undisputed result.

  241. Libturd says:

    Last post from me on the supposed fraud.

    If anyone was incentivized to cheat in this past election, it was the crazy Trump loyalists who fabricated countless election irregularities (which were always proven to be complete bullshit) nearly every step of the way. I’m not sure why the right’s assumption is that the fraud could have only occured on the left.

    Throw your bias out. Think with an open mind. We do not need to audit a well designed voting system. The checks are already in place so we do not need to. In a count of nearly 200 million, any tiny mistakes would not make a difference to the final result. Wherever there was an audit or wherever the votes were recounted, the numbers often improved for the Dems. Again, showing that major fraud was not present.

    If there was evidence this election was stolen, it would have been investigated. But there is no evidence besides wacky conspiracy and a laundry list of lies, proliferated by the losing candidates and repeated by lying news pundits. Without any evidence, it simply comes across as a plea of desperation from a lot of sore losers.

  242. JCer says:

    Lib, I don’t disagree that there was vote fraud from Trump people on a local level especially in districts they control, his supporters are crazy. That is the issue universal mail in ballots makes all of this much easier and more difficult to uncover, when this conversation began someone on this board actually laid out a scenario where the results of the election could be changed relatively easily.

    What I do disagree with is that what we have is a “well designed voting system”. The changes around universal mail in voting were rushed. We’ve known about the flaws in the in person voting system since the Bush election and have done almost nothing to address them. I know about the processes in place for mundane business transaction and know that what we have for our elections are significantly less robust. Even our voter registration rolls are littered with errors. What we did was take a process that usually has pretty low volume that is predictable and easier to audit and expanded it to massive volumes without adding new controls

    I think we all need to move on, we are not going to agree. I think we need to actually quantify it and restore confidence in the system for the voters who feel disenfranchised. Also it is important to note there hasn’t been a signature audit or really any audit of any kind in the disputed states, there have been recounts which frankly would identify issues with the counting but would not establish the validity of the ballots used, or if the ballots were obtained through vote harvesting or if any vote suppression occurred. I’m not saying any of it happened but we should have a process where we can be reasonable sure it did not and at this point we do not and 63% of the republican voters think something funny went on and are not convinced by what has been presented thus far that means you have at least 40m Americans concerned, to not address this just allows this to fester.

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