Impact or not?

From the Philly Voice:

U.S. housing market faces ‘shock’ from end of mortgage forbearance — but no bubble, experts say

Pandemic policies have undoubtedly shaped the way the U.S. housing market has functioned throughout the health crisis, which has had countless ripple effects across different industries and walks of life.

In the housing market, the most obvious headlines of the pandemic have been the soaring sale prices, bitter competition, vacation home boom and limited inventory of starter homes.

Less often discussed is the impact of the federal government’s mortgage forbearance program, which has allowed homeowners to pause payments during the crisis. At its peak, more than 7.2 million homeowners were in the program, but the nation’s economic recovery helped give most of them the breathing room to organize a plan, whether it meant modifying a loan, selling to take advantage of the market or waiting out the storm for as long as possible.

At the beginning of October, the Biden administration has signaled strongly that it will let the program lapse after several extensions were made. And that’s a big deal for the roughly 1.7 million borrowers who remain enrolled.

Many of these homeowners, depending on their circumstances, may ultimately be forced or opt to sell their property while they still believe they can get an above-market deal. If short supply is one of the main drivers of the 17.2% increase in median home prices over the last year, then this influx of homes could have a noticeable impact, even if only modest, according to Fortune.

During the recent summer months, U.S. housing inventory already has climbed in small increments and a mild cooling effect has been seen across the market. Those who have been holding out for more normalcy and who aren’t willing to pay a premium for a home right now may be aided by an anticipated increase in homes that become available due to the end of mortgage forbearance.

This entry was posted in Economics, Mortgages, Politics, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

112 Responses to Impact or not?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    First

  2. dentss dunnigan says:

    Happy yonkuppor

  3. grim says:

    South has beat the North. Mississippi displaces New Jersey with the highest per capita death rate for Covid. Louisiana displaces NY to the the #3 spot. The rest of the southern states are moving upwards at a steady clip. Florida with an impressive +8 upward move in the last few weeks, will likely be in the top 10 soon. For a long stretch of months we pointed to the South’s inaction as evidence of over overreaction by the Northern states, well, turns out that’s all bullshit. Delta death wave now burning through Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Given the momentum, Southern states will likely dominate the top 10 by the end of the year (likely sooner).

    Covid Deaths per 100k
    #1 – Mississippi (+1)
    #3 – Louisiana (+1)
    #6 – Arizona (+1)
    #8 – Alabama
    #9 – Arkansas (+2)
    #12 – Florida (+4)
    #13 – Georgia
    #15 – South Carolina (+5)
    #18 – Nevada
    #23 – Texas
    #24 – Tennessee (+1)

  4. Hold my beer says:

    But they have their freedumb

  5. dentss dunnigan says:

    Our schools are better though ….

  6. grim says:

    Has been interesting watching delta burn upwards into Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio who were relatively unscathed until now. Starting to bleed into Western PA now. Though PA’s higher vaccination rates relative to WV and OH are clearly visible on the hotspot cases maps.

  7. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Where deaths could be avoided, the leadership deserves to be criticized.

    Sending seniors to death by sending known sick into their group homes is an example. Or failing to effectively distribute vaccine is another.

    The states moving up in general now are those with poor public health. But NY being atop in life expectancy and also in covid deaths is quite anomalous.

    Cuomo was deified for his pandemic leadership by the left and fake news media. Turns out he was a heartless autocrat and a predator as well.

  8. Juice Box says:

    Cuomo left 12,000 off the body count in NY. It was only corrected until the new Governor took over.. 34,000 in NYC alone folks. Total across NY state is 56,139.

    Yet they let him keep his blood money from his book. They only revoked his Emmy because of the groping but not for knowing sending Covid infected senior citizens back into the old age homes.

  9. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Remember us in the Northeast had to deal with this without any vaccine and were early on. Many of these other deaths happened after the vaccine was available. Big difference.

  10. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Deaths were early on.

  11. Hold my beer says:

    Latest Texas COVID stats. Cases are up. Hospitalizations down. Wonder if cases are up with lower hospitalizations if more kids are getting it or is it a post Labor Day increase and hospitalizations will rise in another week?

    Also Hispanic vaccination rates are now only trailing whites by 1.7%. It was about a 4-5% spread back in July. And 39% on 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated now. Was only 20% back in July

    https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

  12. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Had the police done their job and arrested this woman who attacked this man they would not be looking for her right now. They let her go after she committed an assault. If a man did this to a woman he would have been in the clink.

    https://youtu.be/zJafbksSnJc

  13. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:
  14. Juice Box says:

    Should be an interesting SPAC merger, Ginkgo Bioworks plans to go public friday.

    Pretty rich for a company with maybe 100 million in revenue, high premium required to be paid, driven however by a compelling growth story and a nice write up in Pravda today.

    Ginkgo Bioworks (Bill Gates, Cathy Wood and others) various ownerships ( insider, PIPE investors, SPAC owners, etc that must be satisfied before this thing should pop when projected revenues hit only 1 Billion four years from now…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/technology/synthetic-biology.html

  15. 3b says:

    Left: From last night. You can’t say no when you are bought and paid for.

  16. leftwing says:

    “For a long stretch of months we pointed to the South’s inaction as evidence of over overreaction by the Northern states, well, turns out that’s all bullshit. Delta death wave now burning through Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.”

    This pandemic has been a rolling regional affair since inception….with many anomalies affecting the data

    I think GOAT’s point is more relevant, focus now on specific actions that demonstrably caused/prevented deaths…or wait until the final numbers are in. Otherwise, you are looking at the end of the third quarter and calling the points leader the game winner….

    We will at some time burn through the variants to a stable level of annual deaths like regular flu. Once that happens I’ll give credit where it’s due…if NY/NJ dodged the bullet and show better results I’ll credit the relatively strict controls here…if after all is said and done we get another round of infection here that keeps us at parity with the worst, well, we went through an entirely pointless dislocation here with no results….

    Also, I would note my use of the word ‘keep’….uh-hum, regardless of minor place shuffling our stats are still horrible.

    But nice job massaging the figures grim to an MSDNC level of propaganda…..You’re saying with a straight face that NJ being 2nd worse in the nation (from the worst) and NY being 4th worse (from 3rd worse) SUPPORT your assertions?

    C’mon man.

  17. leftwing says:

    “Left: From last night. You can’t say no when you are bought and paid for.”

    No disagreement. But it is still on government….

    Some random corporation in some far flung State has no fiduciary duty to you…your elected representative does. In fact, it is the core of his job description.

    Need to recycle Nancy’s “Just Say No” campaign for a different purpose.

  18. 3b says:

    Left: Agreed.

  19. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    There should be no pay to play. Get the lobbying out of politics.

  20. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    What’s Utah’s law on domestic violence? Some states require a complaint from the victim, other states if the cops see marks they are required to make an arrest
    .

  21. BRT says:

    Remember us in the Northeast had to deal with this without any vaccine and were early on. Many of these other deaths happened after the vaccine was available. Big difference.

    Even so, there were countries that were about a month ahead of us like Italy/Spain who got to the point where they didn’t even try treating the people because their system was overwhelmed. By the end of May, 2 months later, NY/NJ had managed to triple the death rate of the worst countries in the world which were at 60 per 100k while NJ sat at 180 per 100k. So countries that ignored the sick and let them die still came out light years ahead of our states that decided it was a good idea to send an airborne virus into nursing homes.

  22. leftwing says:

    Phoenix, yeah, amazing…..And last night I saw some right leaning former judge/prosecutor opining how the cops failed because the GUY should have been arrested….

    The farther away you can stay from these double XX genetic basket cases the better off your life will be….

    Purchase some Mensa 6 ft tall Swedish eggs, rent some uteri, and grab three kids. Choose the gender. All the same age makes raising them easier. Incredible financial and emotional savings. Plus you and they would get all sympathy in the world…..”the boys, no, they don’t have a mom. Really don’t discuss it, private matter.”

    Ahhhh, if only life’s tape could be rewound…..

  23. No One says:

    I thought lefties wanted dumb rightwingers dead anyway. Why are they complaining about anti-vaxxers dying? Because they haven’t already set up death panels to harvest them under govt supervision and so feel cheated?

  24. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    LW,
    Where I work there is a guy who did that. Has a lovely life. Said to me, “If the nanny becomes a problem I just replace her with another one.” He says it’s only happened once or twice. Kids over the summer were in an expensive camp near me that he said was excellent. Said they are doing fine without a “mother.”

    LW when you want to run for president let me know. I will donate time to work on your campaign.

  25. Out of the Ashes says:

    True story from the 70’s. Found it amusing myself. They really pushed these people to the edge, however, with one child losing a leg.

    “Soviet officials were amused today by reports that the small town of Vulcan, W.Va. has appealed to the Kremlin for foreign aid… The town, with a population of 200, asked the Soviet government for financial help to build a bridge after the town was turned down by the U.S. and West Virginia governments.”

    http://appalachianmagazine.com/2014/02/23/the-west-virginia-town-that-applied-for-soviet-foreign-aid-1/

  26. Ex says:

    11:18 preach it brother. My buddy used to go down to Costa Rico for the month and a gal came “with” the rental.

  27. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    HMB,
    She admitted beating him up just because he told her to “calm down.” I lived that psycho, I know it well.
    You cannot reason with one of those. But I can tell you one thing, if it was the other way around he would have been in cuffs. The one officer was trying to get her to say something that would have allowed them to arrest him. The story is on the DM, go to the comments.
    When my ex was successful with her lies to the police and the judges (more than one) she became emboldened, and lies more and more. Even tried to take my child due to Covid and lied to a judge about that. No penalty, no prosecution. Why not just lie to a judge about anything- it’s not like you are going to get arrested or pay any penalty-cause they are too lazy to prosecute.

    Yet had they treated this woman “equally” she would have been arrested and would be home today. Sometimes trying to be a “hero” instead of doing your job can backfire. Badly.

  28. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Costs less than my legal bills. Probably could rent one in Tennessee for less. You are only renting the oven, so if you choose wisely and give her an incentive to be a good surrogate its a win win for her and you as well.

    “The average cost of surrogacy can range from $90,000 to $130,000 depending on the individual arrangements. In states like California, where surrogates are in high demand, the cost may be slightly higher. Legal requirements and the costs of other services can also vary from state to state.”

  29. BRT says:

    I thought lefties wanted dumb rightwingers dead anyway. Why are they complaining about anti-vaxxers dying? Because they haven’t already set up death panels to harvest them under govt supervision and so feel cheated?

    They need to create a false enemy to distract from all of their other failures. Fact is Biden and his CDC hire and even Fauci gave the green light in May declaring victory, and it blew up in their face. Now personally, I don’t care, I think we are at a point where you can get all the protection you want. 2nd, 3rd jab, antibodies. N95 masks. It’s over.

  30. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Get in shape. Covid is here to stay. The healthier you are, the better your chances are. Run Forrest, Run!

  31. Libturd says:

    ThinkOrSwim

    ExPat was a power user and complete devotee.

  32. Fabius Maximus says:

    I’ll add this to the boomer discussion.

    https://twitter.com/ImSpeaking13/status/1438459377418129410

  33. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Boomer Karen of the day. This one especially bad.

    https://bit.ly/3nG3rP0

    In a Facebook post sharing his account of the incident, Nolte Jr. said he stopped off-base to grab pizza with a friend on Sept. 11 when a woman came in and began staring at him.

    ‘I proceed to attempt to prove that I am not a fake, even pulled out my VALID Military ID and showed it to her,’ Nolte wrote. ‘She kept claiming that my Military ID is fake, and proceeds to show me her DEPENDENT MILITARY ID, and screams ‘This is what your ID should look like.’

    Just two months ago, WHTM, the ABC affiliate from Notle Jr.’s hometown, featured him in a public service announcement, Hartford Courant reported.

    ‘Today we salute Sean Nolte Jr., of Harrisburg, who is a 2017 graduate of Harrisburg High School Sci-Tech Campus. Nolte is serving with the U.S. Navy in Groton, Connecticut,’ the station said. ‘We salute you, and thank you for your service.’

    ‘She was in a public restaurant and she created alarm by her language and by assaulting someone,’ Ciuci said. ‘So, there are charges related to breach of peace and assault in the third degree that we’re pursuing.’

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    Is Carmella Harris still alive?

  35. No One says:

    Eddie,
    Not having to hear her hideous cackling when she is under stress (basically everything off script) has been a blessing for us all. Please do not put pressure on the WH to bring her back. Maybe she’s on strike till she gets that all-expenses paid trip to Europe she has been asking for.

  36. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    It would be massively unpopular for any politician to say that covid is here to stay and your best defense against in the long run is regular exercise and a good diet.

    Most people would rather stuff their faces and get a needle in their arm. And then act sanctimoniously toward anyone who first agree.

    Plus there is very little profit in that approach.

  37. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Is Cruella Harris still alive?

    Cause you have to be cruel A F in order to leave known innocent individuals in prison when you have the power to do that except for the fact it doesn’t jive with your current ambitions of power.

  38. 3b says:

    Harris is being kept out of sight , in the event Biden steps down, they don’t want her screwing up now; people will realize how bad she is. If she really was the Dems choice for President in 2024, we would be seeing her all over the place.

  39. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Cause you have to be cruel A F in order to leave known innocent individuals in prison when you have the ability to help release them except for the fact it doesn’t jive with your current ambitions of power.

  40. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    BITG
    I’m no politician. Not worried in the least about being popular.
    Being in good physical shape is definitely an advantage.

    Being cachectic doesn’t help either, but it’s not always under your control. So they get a pass.

  41. Fabius Maximus says:

    JCer, I have a few Cantor stories from back in the day, but not for in here.

    The problem with a lot of banking and software systems in general is that no-one is really sure what they do or how they really work. When you try and reverse engineer them, without the original requirements and the change records, it is too easy to miss something important.

    Software development went downhill with the rise of the GUI, OO and companies like RougeWave. Programmers no longer had to worry about a lot of the mechanics, inherit the library, make the call and away you go. While it made life a lot easier, a lot of raw skill was lost. How many programmers today have to worry about managing memory.

    The biggest culprit is actually Google. People don’t really code anymore, they google the issue and someone would have posted a code fragment that does what they need.

    Also when it comes to writing Futures systems, if you don’t have a deep knowledge of pricing, you will get it wrong. For a lot of places, it is easier keeping those old 3rd party systems running. SPAN is a pain, but its a lot easier to run than trying to replicate it yourself. Same with Margin.

  42. BRT says:

    It goes further than that. I know people that have gotten back surgery instead of possibly losing the extra 70 pounds that would likely alleviate part or all of the problem. If I let myself go 15 lbs overweight, my back starts acting up. I refuse to let these butchers operate on me, so I lose it and the problem wanes.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    O’Biden f.ucking up again. Build back better. LOL.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1438250398033326087

  44. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    In Australia the PMs nickname is Scottie from marketing

  45. Hold my beer says:

    Goat

    Our society has become too fat, dumb, and entitled to maintain the myth of American democracy much longer

  46. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    When you get remarried make sure you do your fair sure of the housework. Women seem unhappy the man does nothing around the house.

    https://jezebel.com/here-are-some-good-reasons-to-divorce-your-husband-this-1847688525

  47. JCer says:

    Fab, I think it goes beyond that. The google copied and pasted code is likely better than what some of these folks could produce. The biggest issue is willingness to spend, yes there are literally no requirements so people literally don’t know what these things are doing. I’m not in favor of replacing the legacy or throwing things out that are working, they can be adapted and integrated into modern systems. As for managing memory it is no big deal the bigger issue is the “automagic” garbage collection when the developers don’t know how it works behind the scenes. Tons of these java apps leak memory, most corporate built java apps need to be rebooted daily for this reason, and the ever possible GC at an inopportune time is always possible and exacerbated by developers who do “stupid things”.

    To say software development went downhill because of those things is insane, the people who started building libraries and frameworks literally were laying the foundation for all the technology we use today. If more companies were like Morgan Stanley who basically built their own internal frameworks, a lot of these systems would be better, would have taken less time to build and would be more easily updated. Blame the craftsman not the tool. Also framework overuse is too common don’t add an entire tool chain to avoid writing 200 lines of code, because you take on the technical debt for the library you are using and all associated dependencies it requires.

    The problem is an unwillingness to invest in older systems, once it is built it is pretty much left for dead, you get funding for “maintenance” but never money to improve and harden systems. Funding will go to new development, which will be garbage as the engineers are “trash” so garbage-in->garbage-out, where evolving them is probably more appropriate than a total rewrite. As long as a system is functioning adequately and is not on a “dead” platform there is no reason not to keep it, some systems have an achilles heel that necessitates a rewrite but you’d be surprised.

    Quite literally I came into my current place and was responsible for stabilizing a legacy platform with severe performance problems and stability issues before taking over it’s replacement because the platform was failing and the customer was literally paying for the replacement build which I think was around 15m. I took over the legacy team and within 3 months it was stabilized, but we had a whole pipeline of improvements I devised with the team when we started and we were continuing to implement the enhancements. At some point senior management pretty much orders us to stop and to not promote or test what we have in QA. Senior management started to freak out because we were inside the performance remit for the “new” replacement system and they sold the client on paying for the replacement because the existing would “never be able to meet those requirements”. Essentially we wasted tons of client money building a system that is pretty much universally hated by our customers, that has required incredibly large support teams (so even more money ongoing) on something with zero strategic value. In fact some of our smaller clients left the platform because with the complexity of the design it was operationally overwhelming for them, so not only did we burn money we lost revenue in the process. This product is so bad it runs red even without paying the initial build costs.

    Every dev team needs to have functional experts embedded and developers with at least a cursory knowledge of the business they are supporting.

  48. Bystander says:

    “Every dev team needs to have functional experts embedded and developers with at least a cursory knowledge of the business they are supporting.”

    hah, thanks, JCER..I needed that laugh. That would mean keeping expensive people around..

  49. JCer says:

    HMB, that’s an interesting article. I really don’t understand women, of the people we know most where the wife is shouldering most of the house duties she also typically has a less demanding job but also usually the man is responsible for home maintenance and repairs plus the cars(as somehow most women are pre-programmed to ignore the little sticker and the message that pops up when you start the car) . In my case my wife’s job sucks so I have bared the brunt handling 90% of all cooking, frequently having to clean up after the kids, kid taxi duty, etc as she is forced back to the office. Not once has it ever crossed my mind to get a divorce because I literally do 75% of what needs to done. If I couldn’t handle it I’d have a conversation. It shows how flippantly our society takes it’s commitments, because you are temporarily having difficulties in the middle of a pandemic you should contemplate divorce? It’s probably cheaper for most people to get take out daily and hire a maid than what is lost in a divorce.

    Based on how badly phoenix was burned I doubt he’s getting remarried.

  50. JCer says:

    Bystander, I’ve literally had execs at my employer look at me in a meeting and ask are “you fcuking smoking crack?” So I’m used to it. One of your execs apparently muted a call and was cursing me out because I pushed back on the fact that they never gave us a major requirement and then expected us to absorb 3000 man days of development. Your employer is literally the worst, it’s amazing to me that 15 years ago it was actually a good place to work they used to spend money with reckless abandon. I know the reality your dev team is exclusively fresh grads from DIFT(the Dhaka Institute of Fashion and Technologies) most of these folks don’t have cursory knowledge of a savings account let alone investment banking or asset management.

  51. Ex says:

    In the report, three-year poverty level averages were calculated for each state and the District of Columbia using the supplemental poverty measure, which found that 15.4% of California residents lived in poverty from 2018 to 2020. Only the District of Columbia had a higher rate of poverty — 16.5%.

    The supplemental poverty measure expands on the official poverty measure, which was developed by Social Security economist Mollie Orshansky in the 1960s, by accounting for cost of living, work and medical expenses, tax credits, and government programs designed to assist low-income families and individuals.

  52. Ex says:

    4:28 I too have wondered about your penchant for crack smoking.

  53. leftwing says:

    “LW when you want to run for president let me know. I will donate time to work on your campaign.”

    Thanks for the tip of the hat but any one of many of my campaign ‘slogans’ espoused here would not only disqualify me but have me run out of many towns, lol.

    Lib, ToS got me coding…I can use their API to run real time data on custom studies/backtests I construct. Great system. Schwab code plumbers better not fcuk it up.

  54. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    “I refuse to let these butchers operate on me,”

    Lighten up, Francis. It’s not like your profession isn’t riddled with derelicts and child molesters!

  55. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    HMB
    In an article like that you go strait to the comments. Hell when I was married she would change 3 times per day. By Wednesday you had 2 washer loads of clothing just for her.

    My guess is now that I am not there she wears her underwear for 3 days straight to avoid filling the laundry basket.

  56. Juice Box says:

    Memory lane…..

    Here we are OutOfMemoryError still exists in Java version 17, and lazy developers require way more memory and servers than ever…. I bet half the money spent these days for Cloud and other hosting is wasted because of bad coding.

    Never would have thought that when I got my Java Ring back in 1998…..Lol

  57. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    LW,

    Yeah, you are right. No way you are getting in. America would rather have losers like Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden.

    That’s why we are sinking like the castle in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Now we even have Sir Robin as our President.

  58. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Although I can’t relate to this directly, this comment made me chuckle.

    “I know the reality your dev team is exclusively fresh grads from DIFT(the Dhaka Institute of Fashion and Technologies) most of these folks don’t have cursory knowledge of a savings account let alone investment banking or asset management.”

  59. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Being that many of you are in finance, anyone ever put a dollar value on what men do around a house vs women from an actual cash value?

    Think of some things you do around the house and how much someone would charge for it. If you do a 4 wheel brake job on the family car, how many loads of laundry does that compare to? Or setting up a computer network, cutting down a tree, replacing an outlet or the pump on your washing machine. What would that cost compared to watching The View while Little Karen is playing with her crayons?

    My guess is unless you are one of those men who has to call the Geek Squad to fix a router issue, gets a weekly pedicure, or hires a plumber to replace the water supply line on a toilet that you are probably doing at least your share around the house.

  60. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    And no, you are not a “Chef” if what for dinner is reheated chicken nuggets and a tuna casserole.

  61. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Two Fed presidents with insider knowledge of US monetary policy sold millions of dollars of stock in blue-chip firms including Amazon, Apple, and Google last year, prompting ethics review
    Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, traded millions of dollars of stock in companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Google in 2020
    Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, traded in stocks and real estate investment trusts including Chevron, Pfizer, and Phillips 66
    The trades were made last year during a time when the Fed took extraordinary steps to buoy US economy and stabilize financial markets during the pandemic
    Comments made by Fed regional presidents can move markets and they have a hand in the Fed’s interest rate policies
    Senior US lawmakers – including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts – demanded more stringent restrictions after Wall Street Journal reported trades

  62. Juice Box says:

    What is wrong with DIFT? It’s a top Bangladesh skool…

    Look they even flew in a guest lecturer to teach about finance and computing…

    Here is a picture of when Paul Volker spoke there..from their Facebook page.. 2nd picture from the top.

    https://m.facebook.com/pg/diftbd/photos/?ref=page_internal&mt_nav=0

    https://m.facebook.com/pg/diftbd/photos/?ref=page_internal&mt_nav=0

  63. grim says:

    We will at some time burn through the variants to a stable level of annual deaths like regular flu. Once that happens I’ll give credit where it’s due…if NY/NJ dodged the bullet and show better results I’ll credit the relatively strict controls here…if after all is said and done we get another round of infection here that keeps us at parity with the worst, well, we went through an entirely pointless dislocation here with no results….

    You pose an absurd, impossible double standard.

    How about we level the playing field. Per capita mortality rate after the 1st day a vaccine was available?

  64. grim says:

    By the way, NJ has already crested it’s delta wave. We’ve been at 99% of all variants sequenced in the last month being delta, and above 90% for the last two months. If it was going to blow up, it would have already. Given the extent of infections and vaccinations in the northeast, we’ve kept it largely at bay. In fact, this last “wave-let” (with it’s incredibly low overall hospitalization & mortality rate – due to vaccination), further protect us heading into the winter. Hell, we’re already at 74,000 booster shots, and the booster isn’t even approved.

  65. 3b says:

    Out/ Phoenix: I was just about to post about the Fed Presidents and their trading. Simply unbelievable! I assumed once they became part of the Fed Reserve Board, their trading activities would be halted. Why am I not surprised, just disgusting!

  66. 3b says:

    Out: Who changes their clothes 3 times a day on a regular basis??!!

  67. Hold my beer says:

    Out and JCer

    The comments are always the best part of that site. Read the headline, go right to the comments with some popcorn.

  68. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    OCD and kooky.

    Well, maybe I might have to change my forecast a bit. Went onto Facebook ( The site that makes my skin crawl for the most part, but sometimes mildly entertaining) and there are plenty of men who cannot seem to do any sort of basic maintenance on their homes based on these wives begging for “reasonable” contractors to do the most minor repairs at their homes. I almost want to post– WTF did you marry, a gelded beagle?
    Must be a money thing, you have so much floating around that you forgot or never learned how to adjust a door or change a circuit breaker.

    And enough with the “reasonable” lady. Electrician wants 250 to put in an outlet near her toilet so she can have a warm mist to rinse the netherland. Well, it’s a GFI, and he has to snake a wire through the wall. That’s not worth 250 to you?

    Holy Cheapskate Batman.

  69. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Me, marry again?

    Maybe one of those Afghan refugees. My guess is that they would be way more grateful than the American GoldDiggers.

  70. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:
  71. leftwing says:

    Grim, slow down brother. You’re going all NJ Monthly, who’s-number-one on me.

    Not a field I play on…I’m simply stating facts to your observations and conclusion….the pandemic has been rolling geographically since it arrived, it is not yet over (ie, not all the data is in from all geographies), and there are a number of anomalies that one can – or not – factor into any conclusion.

    For example, to bolster the point that seems important to you, perhaps the more stringent restrictions here actually worked better if one were to adjust for the anomaly of nursing home deaths unique to NJ/NY due to the poor judgement of two governors and which had nothing to do with masking, congregating, etc.

    Basically, the jury is still out.

  72. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Keep seeing GS. Is that where they breed this type?

    Kaplan worked for 23 years at Goldman Sachs before joining Harvard Business School in 2006.

    He then became president of the Dallas Fed in September 2015.

  73. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    I still find this so funny, a bunch of children on Tik-Tok torpedoed this rally. Don’t underestimate the youth of today is all I can say.

    Former President Trump was irate when TikTokers pulled a prank on him that left thousands of empty seats at his rally in Oklahoma, calling the event the ‘biggest f***ing mistake’, according to a new book.

    ‘I shouldn’t have ever done that f***ing, f***ing rally,’ Trump said at an Oval Office meeting in July 2020, after the rally, according to ‘Peril,’ a tell-all from The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.

  74. 3b says:

    Out: GS was a very different firm when I was there. A partnership that did everything to avoid the spotlight. Most people away from Wall St, never heard of it. When people outside the business asked where I worked and I told them , they thought it was either a law firm or I worked in the diamond district!!

  75. Fabius Maximus says:

    JCer, yes the code in some cases better than they could write, but if they don’t know what they are looking at, they can cause a lot of issues. There is also a lot of garbage out there. I spent a few months trouble shooting a “Network Issue” Turns out the code he ripped off Google was using synchronous packet handling. It worked great when he tested with his buddy across the room. It ran like a dog sending traffic around the world.

    Garbage collection is another great example where if some one does not know what they are doing they can really mess up. The answer from higher up is usually throw some more memory at it instead of fixing the code to get it right. There was a period we had when had a lot of applications using 64bit memory addressing on a 32bit machines. Also when they throw all the memory on a box to the heap and starve the OS.

    In the end most developers code for Functional and ignore Operational because they never have to deal with it.

  76. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    350 Million dollars. Taxpayers, time for you to pony up. Oh, hell, that’s not a pony, that’s Thoroughbred money.
    I have to think now, did any teachers ever touch my junk?

    https://www.nj.com/essex/2021/09/7-former-students-at-nj-school-sue-for-50m-claim-teacher-sexually-abused-them-decades-ago.html

  77. Juice Box says:

    Fab – you really could never run run much Java on 32bit windows server max heap on those 32 bit jvms was only 1.6 GB, if you switched to Solaris is was like 2GB. I spent countless hours working with developed to optimize. Even when you could get a beefed up 64 bit Linux box loaded with memory they would still manage to run out of memory.

  78. Juice Box says:

    Lock her up!..

    Finally one of Hillary’s lawyers has been charged with a Federal crime for the fake hit pieces planted in the media right before the 2016 election and sent to the FBI that Trump was communicating with the Russians via DNS queries. I remember when this first dropped and knew it as all malarkey then..

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/durham-probe-alleged-clinton-campaign-advisor-michael-sussmann-charged.html

    Some background…

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

  79. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Juice,
    She will walk. American justice system is worthless. Throw someone in prison for some CBD but let all these other criminals walk.

    I have no faith in it at all.

  80. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice, I aways ran Sparc, it took x86 a long time to catch up to it. Usable was around 3.4GB. I always tried to avoid running windows when I could.

    “the fake hit pieces ” Umm no. Charged with lying to the Feds. There is nothing on the information he handed over was not accurate.

    If this is all that Durham shows up with after a year and half, it shows what a partisan hack job it always was.

    Now off to watch this NFL game. Washington against the G-Men. I don’t have a dog in the game, but this should be a Dumpster fire of a game.

  81. Fabius Maximus says:

    Some in here will get this.

    10 PRINT “RIP SIR CLIVE SINCLAIR”
    20 GOTO 10
    30 RUN

    https://twitter.com/jondharvey/status/1438585252050505742

  82. Ex says:

    From now on Nikki Minaj is making all of my medical decisions.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I still believe that we are in a secular bull market that is far from over. As this chart shows, secular bull markets are not immune from recessions and cyclical bear markets. But they tend to be shorter and shallower, and the subsequent rebounds tend to be swifter.

    https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1438567358608691205?s=21

  84. Grim says:

    Used to do that to the Commodores in Sears.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    U.S. Economy Shows Resilience During Delta Surge

    Consumers boosted retail spending last month; employers, meanwhile, have held on to workers amid tight labor demand

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-august-2021-retail-sales-delta-variant-11631736808?st=45ygbq22wtkjo7p&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  86. JCer says:

    dude G1 garbage collector, our heap sizes exploded when that came out, just allocate 32gb to your JVM and you’re pretty much set, memory is cheap and developers are not. Yeah that could be a problem synchronous will cause huge problems once there is some latency, but that just seems like common sense. Why would you have dolts writing any kind of networking code, the same goes for threaded code, you don’t let the dolts write it? 32 bit java, what are you some kind of masochists?

    Phoenix, the work men do around the house tends to be high monetary value. 4 wheel brake job, I just did one it was $200 in parts vs. $800 at the mechanic. Plumbing repair is a few hundred dollars for basic repairs. Domestic help gets like $20 an hour retail, my cleaners do 4 girls for 2 hours for $160. I have latino friends who pay even less. Laundry, when I was single I had a service maybe it was $50 a week to have everything washed and folded and shirts washed and pressed, not sure how inflation has effected it but I was getting a considerable discount for volume. Hence my comment about domestic help being cheaper than a divorce!

  87. njtownhomer says:

    RIP Sir Sinclair. My first PC was a ZX Spectrum +2. Learned basics of programming there and played a few games.

  88. Juice Box says:

    Fab – It’s totally debunked…Mueller report did not even mention it (Alfa Bank and DNS). As always follow the money..

    There is plenty of mystery for sure, Mueller, FBI, and separate congressional investigators working for the impeachment inquiries all said there was nothing too it.

    The lawyer who was just indicted for lying to the FBI was billing the Clinton campaign for the “Alfa Bank” issue for months. It’s in the filings. He waked into the office of James Baker the General Counsel for the FBI under Obama and claimed he had no association with the Clinton campaign, and planted this fake story. A massive lie and coverup which they found out because he was billing Clinton for his hours.

    They need to get him to flip on Robby Mook who then can flip on Hillary….For you see a criminal conspiracy is NOT TO GOOD TO BE TRUE in politics.

    There are lawsuits pending alleging a criminal conspiracy by unidentified defendants who ostensibly forged data and manipulated DNS data to make it appear that the bank was communicating with the Trump Organization. Third parties are purported to have artificially created the activity to make it appear as though a connection existed.

  89. Juice Box says:

    re: “Memory is cheap” Since when? Fully stacked converged servers are expensive… We had a massive server farm at one point over 500 virtual servers running to make up for the bad code croaking our servers that was coming out in our Agile pipeline ,build, deploy and pray it don’t crash!! (programming work farmed out to Sapient). We had configured the servers to reboot as soon as they hit 70% of the heap as we knew it was already slow and near death.

    Then we dumped all that and took Zuckerberg’s free code and offloaded the heavy lifting to REACT…No more leaky servlets running on bad ATG code that Oracle paid a fortune for running on Weblogic.. We could never get it to run on WebLogic properly even with $$$ spent on top notch WebLogic people.. As Archie and Edith sang…Those were the days…!

  90. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    8 year old children in North Korea can probably code better. They get shot if they don’t.

  91. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – Moore’s Law is the problem. Computing got faster and so did projects, shortcuts were taken….At least the computers that control the US nuclear arsenal today still run on 1970s computing. The Strategic Automated Command and Control System. It runs on an 1970s era IBM Series/1 Computer with 8 inch floppy disks…You cannot hack something that does not have an IP address or a modem connection like the 1980s movie War Games might lead you to believe..

    However it’s all changing with a few tens of billions being spent on modernizing it. Pehaps the new system called S.K.Y-N.E.T will be cheaper to use with chinese made components and all. What could go wrong.?

  92. Out of the Ashes goes the Phoenix says:

    Juice,
    You have to be better when you are working with less, and more efficient. In my industry now there are massive defections all over the state. Forums showing all of the major institutions are having resignations from the staff. I’ve never seen anything like it. Surprised the papers haven’t written anything about it yet. My guess is that they will shortly.

  93. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice, the scope of Mueller (just like the Kav investigations) was kept very tight by the WH. So the fact that it never made it into the scope is not really relevant.

    For me don’t focus on Alfa, focus on Spectrum with DeVos and Prince. As to forging DNS, I cant wait to see how those cases play out. You cant forge DNS, Period.

    I do love the the right jumping on stuff like this. Just like the Steele report, regardless who paid, what came came to light?. With the Steele report only one minor fact has ever been disputed. Who had Cohens burner phone in the Seychelles. Everything else in it is holding.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/15/was-there-a-connection-between-a-russian-bank-and-the-trump-campaign

    Why do you want to dismiss everything so quickly?

  94. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice, I am still fighting some apps going virtual. Sacrificing 1GHz clock speed, for some apps is not worth it.
    Today my fight was Storage and IOPS, they got a “He11 N0” and sent back to the drawing board. Add in some pleas for Kafka, and some dumb cloud designs, it was a normal day.

    That turned out to be a he!! of a game!

  95. Juice Box says:

    Moderation 20 times on something simple lol..
    Fab –

    Here are DNS query that will send Hillary’s lawyer to jail, approx 2800 of these..He went down to FBI headquarters and lied about this nonsense…Fake Logs BTW not fake DNS.

    2016-07-20T10:55:33.000Z|mail1.trump-email.com|217.12.96.15

    THe FBI has been obfuscating about Alfa supposed links just like they were with McKayla Maroney’s report of abuse. The FBI refused to provide to congress their data and why they concluded there was NOTHING there (sources and methods bla bla bla.) It’s on page 24 of the Senate report.

    And if there are emails? The NSA has not chimed in….

  96. Juice Box says:

    Fab

    Here is DNS query that will send Hillary’s lawyer to jail, approx 2800 of these..He went down to FBI headquarters and lied about this nonsense…Fake Logs BTW not fake DNS.

    2016-07-20T10:55:33.000Z|mail1.trump-email.com|217.12.96.15

  97. Juice Box says:

    And yes it’s an email server, are there emails that could prove something? The NSA did not provide anything…

  98. Juice Box says:

    FAB – Also to be kind, get a grip..

    Mueller had full FBI access, he was not stopped by anyone at the FBI from looking into their investigation, in fact itWAS THE EXACT purpose of the Muller investigation! He testified to this fact, nobody stopped him from investigating…

    THe FBI has been obfuscating about the Trump/Alfa server supposed links just like the were with McKayla Maroney’s report of sexual abuse. The FBI refused to provide to congress their data and why and how they concluded there was NOTHING there. It’s on page 24 of the congressional report.

  99. Juice Box says:

    Hey look Russia is tampering in Elections again and now they have Google and Apple censoring free speech for them.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/google-apple-remove-navalny-app-stores-russian-elections-begin-2021-09-17/?utm_source=reddit.com

  100. Juice Box says:

    FDA meets today to decide on Covid booster shots. Remember two top FDA vaccine regulators resigned in anger because Biden announced Booster shots are coming when the scientists did not even have a chance to review the data or debate the merits…It is their decision and Joe Biden needs to stay out of it…

  101. Juice Box says:

    Meat is back on the Menu boys…

    Most of the supermarkets by me no longer prominently display the Beyond Meat products.. Other than the novelty of trying these faux burgers and sausages is anyone buying Beyond Meat products regularly? Nationwide sales are approx 100 million a quarter…

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-stock-drops-after-piper-analyst-suggests-its-time-to-sell-11631797617

  102. grim says:

    I suspect FDA delivers a beat down today, it’s the best course of action for vaccine confidence.

  103. Juice Box says:

    FDA hasn’t always followed the advice of its committee, it’s a non binding vote by the scientists if they vote no expect the White House to still announce 3rd shots for people over 65.

  104. Juice Box says:

    Elon’s crew of civilians are completing day two now of orbiting at 357 miles in space, very few updates on social media even though they have streaming video etc. Perhaps the space orgy did not go as planned…

    https://twitter.com/inspiration4x/status/1438716982564696065

  105. Juice Box says:

    So Sears is finally closing their last store in Illinois. I used to go in there like Grim and mess with the Commodore 64 computers too..

    10 PRINT “”+-0

    There were even websites to 10 Print art on the Commodore 64..

  106. Juice Box says:

    Man am I a nerd..

    We used to spend countless hours messing around with Basic programming on TRS 80, Commodore 64, Apple II etc. For me it was the Apple II. A neighbor my math tutor in 5th grade brought one home from school. I spent countless hours with his kids and him programming on that Apple II in his basement, he used to smoke Pall Malls too.. That house was recently sold, the mom is in long term care with Dementia (she survived covid too) dad the teacher passed a few years ago Pall Malls finally got him. Their kids finally sold the family’s home as it was never fixed up and languished for a while on the market..

    I cannot get my kid to even go to one code ninjas class. I think he want’s to be a Politician.

    Here is a copy of the 10 Print book… from a web site dedicated to 10 Print….I cannot believe this stuff is still out there.

    https://10print.org/10_PRINT_121114.pdf

  107. Trick says:

    My Father worked for IBM and we were one of the 1st to have the PC jr, fun times

  108. Libturd says:

    On the simple infinite loop front, who didn’t fukc with every computer on display in every store. The tradition continues with kids today, only it’s figuring out how to circumvent the watchdog programs on hotel business center computers so they can figure out how to play the latest war games there.

    As for earliest computers we got our hands on, when I was 8 years old, they rolled a dumb terminal into our classroom in elementary school in East Brunswick. It was plugged into a four prong outlet and had a thermal printer. I think it was a DEC VT100(?) with a crude green and black display. I astounded my elementary school teacher when I programmed an arrow to appear to move left and right across the screen with a simple loop in BASIC that added one character of space wider than the ascii screen could display for 30 or lines and then one less for 30 or so lines and then repeating both infinitely. Teacher thought I was Einstein. She had no clue I had a Trash-80 in my basement. Oh how I despised that cassette recorder to record and load my programs, but the floppy drive was like $600 and the hard drive cost like $75K. Remember kids, you could buy the average car for $4K back then. That TRS-80 with floppy drive in ’77 was like a $5,500 purchase in today’s dollars. My dad managed a Radio Shack at the time, so he probably borrowed it. ;) Best of all, that computer had 8K of RAM. I would constantly run out of memory but the 32K model was a bloody fortune.

    I don’t know if I ever shared this story, but the reason I didn’t end up a coder was due to a crime I committed in high school. I took AP-Pascal and it was an incredibly difficult class. Rather than figure out the assignments, I figured out how to copy my classmates’ work (and then change a few string names) from their directories as we were still on dumb terminals. It wasn’t hard. I sent a request to Data General Corporation for their networking manual and it clearly showed how permissions were programmed. Well for sh1ts and giggles, I got my hands on a Hayes 300 bit modem. Lo and Behold, my tiny bank, Axia Federal Savings, which had 4 branches in total, located in all of the local shopping malls, used the same Data General Corp. networking system. Well for the fun of it, I hacked into my passbook savings account and added $5 to it. At the time, my account might have had like $20 in it so I figured the tiny amount wouldn’t be that big of a deal. Well when I made the next transaction in person, the $5 discrepancy was investigated by the bank like I broke into Fort Knox.

    In exchange for not being prosecuted, I had to give up the modem and promise I would not use another modem until I was 18 to keep the incident off of my juvi record. My parents took away all of my computer stuff and I was left with an Atari 2600 and a Sega Master system. Once I got into college, I got hooked on MUDs and did network a bit with Marc Andreessen of Mosaic/Netscape fame over the best graphic formats for a non-text based browser. At the time, all of my online friends were busy registering every domain name they could find with the internet registry since it was free. I told them they were all wasting their time. They all made 6 or 7 figures from selling these names. I was hooked on WYSWYG and especially how it pertained to imagesetter output and image separations for offset print. This was right around the time that the Apple LC-2 was released which finally let you see printable color on screen. Before then, you could color objects in the code, but they did not appear on screen in color.
    I remember when the first version of Quark Xpress came out, their color separations were in the negative and caused huge upheaval in the service bureau world where magazine producers were flummoxed about this technology which was in it’s infancy. Before then, magazine shot pasted up displays using a camera and color filters to produce the film they used to burn the plates for printing presses. Digital film output eliminated the need for cameras and paste-up. It also allowed multiple people in multiple locations to work on the same magazine simultaneously. So everyone switched rapidly but their film separations were coming out in the negative in one color channel only which completely screwed up 4-color process printing for a few months. Those were the days. And now you all know how I got into printing and abandoned coding.

  109. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    My best friend had an Apple II. Do you remember the guys who reproduced classical music with the sounds of the printhead of their dot-matrix printer? Countless hours were wasted playing Ultima and Wolfenstein. I still here that annoying, “Haus Pass!” in my head, which the German guards would utter as you entered each room.

    Then there were those terrible static p0rn images.

  110. Trick says:

    Great story, I still have Quark on my resume, last job interview they were asking what it was. Probably should remove it……

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