Getting ahead in the new normal

From the NYT:

More Americans Are Renting, and Paying More, as Homeownership Falls

To Johnnie McDowell, the house on Livingston Street seems to taunt him every time he walks by. It’s nothing special: The two-story home is a bit shabby, and it’s been on and off the market in recent months without finding a buyer. Still, he cannot stop dreaming of a better life for his family as he imagines the extra space inside and his children and dog playing outdoors once he weeds the yard.

The McDowell family, however, remains squeezed into a rental apartment: a single floor of an oddly configured duplex that Mr. McDowell has fashioned into three small bedrooms for himself, his wife, Takiba, and two children. With a monthly rent of $1,400, car payments, unpredictable family expenses, a spotty credit report and an empty savings account, Mr. McDowell sees no way to soon pull together a decent down payment.

In the past, many families like the McDowells, whose household income is almost $100,000 a year, would already be nestled in a starter home, maybe even on the cusp of upgrading to something bigger and more expensive on the profits from their first house.

But even as the market continues to improve — sales of existing homes in May increased to their highest pace in six years, the National Association of Realtors reported on Monday, and first-timers make up 32 percent of the buyers — it is leaving millions of Americans unwillingly stuck in rental housing.

“It’s more of a new normal,” said Robert J. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and a Nobel laureate. “We went through a wrenching experience with the biggest housing bubble and the biggest collapse since 1890. This is an anxious time.”

The nation’s homeownership rate has been falling for eight years, down to 63.7 percent in the first quarter of this year from a peak of over 69 percent in 2004, according to a new report released on Wednesday by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

The flip side of the decline in homeownership is a boom in rentals and a significant rise in the cost of renting. On average, the number of new rental households has increased by 770,000 annually since 2004, the center’s report said, making 2004-14 the strongest 10-year stretch of rental growth since the late 1980s.

Some economists see signs of a turnaround, with reluctant renters like Mr. McDowell starting to find ways to enter the mortgage market, where interest rates are still at bargain levels. The economists predict home buying will continue to rise as long as the economy keeps growing and unemployment falls further, prodding employers to raise wages faster than inflation.

But in the meantime, the flood of renters has reduced the national vacancy rate to its lowest point in nearly 20 years, according to the center’s report. And while builders are adding apartments rapidly, they are concentrating on the higher end of the market, pinching those in the middle and bottom. Last year, rents rose at a 3.2 percent rate, more than twice the pace of overall inflation.

The situation is particularly acute in New Jersey, where the McDowell family lives. According to an analysis of 2013 government data by Enterprise Community Partners, a nonprofit based in Columbia, Md., dedicated to creating more affordable housing, more than three out of 10 New Jersey renters spend at least half of their household income on rent and utilities, the second-highest rate in the nation, behind Florida.

On a recent warm evening, Mr. McDowell stood outside the broken white picket fence that lined the home, with Erin bouncing down the sidewalk.

“I would rip up all of this,” he said, plotting how he’d clean up the yard so the children and their shih tzu, Cleo, could safely play. “I have dreams. My wife and I have dreams.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

94 Responses to Getting ahead in the new normal

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning new Jersey

  2. More Americans Are Renting, and Paying More, as Homeownership Falls – Maybe because every article that tells us how “affordable” homes are completely ignores the cost of property taxes? In real life it turns out you have to pay those taxes in actual dollars.

  3. “I have dreams. My wife and I have dreams… and car payments, and unpredictable family expenses, and a spotty credit report and an empty savings account.”

    I wonder if unpredictable family expenses come in the form of new TVs, cars, vacations, and impulse buys at Target and BJ’s?

  4. This McDowell dumbass is prolly a Dumbocrat. Look at what thugs like Cuomo (during the HUD years) did “for” him.

    The extension of “equal opportunity to own a home” and “easy access to financing” has turned millions like him into the rent-and-debt serfs that JPM & GS always wanted to create.

  5. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    grim: I can’t post something with the word inst!tute in it because it contains a word that refers to the mammary glands…..

  6. Target millions of unqualified buyers in urban pockets of less privilege.
    Sell those unqualified buyers exotic & predatory loans.
    Unqualified buyers soon default en masse.
    Swoop in and buy millions of units of rental stock- cash- for fraction of former value.
    Jam rental units with millions of defaulted former owners w/wrecked credit.
    Charge ’em an arm and a leg.
    Offload rental properties that benefit from accelerated appreciation.
    Rinse & repeat.

    This should end well.

  7. Banco Pop (5)-

    Show your t!ts!!!

  8. Really think today’s thread should be dedicated to sl0t-shaming Bristol Palin.

  9. leftwing says:

    Baby due end of year? Good, keep mom occupied and far away from this election cycle.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    ExPat [2],

    You can’t sell a house in NJ if you calculate property taxes. It’s a side fee, like paying the electric and gas bill. It’s really a nuisance that needs to be ignored.

    By the way, I was talking to a friend last night that works in a school district in Southern Bergen County. She told me the combined salaries of a husband and wife team that are elementary school principals in the district is over $300,000. You know, it’s justified because you have to make believe you’re for the children while being a Warden.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    But even as the market continues to improve — sales of existing homes in May increased to their highest pace in six years, the National Association of Realtors reported on Monday…

    Sure, because everyone is now a qualified seller. The NAR is a s.cam agency and their data was calculated by their 2nd grade educated staff.

  12. Ben says:

    I wonder if unpredictable family expenses come in the form of new TVs, cars, vacations, and impulse buys at Target and BJ’s?

    Much more than that. This guy should be ashamed of himself. With an annual household income of $100k a year, I’d have that crappy house paid for in full with cash in about 7 years, yet he can’t even manage a down payment.

  13. Ben says:

    He could move to a less expensive town where homes are cheaper, but he wants to stay in pricier Westfield for its good schools.

    He could move to a less expensive town, increase his standard of living 5 fold, but instead, insists on living in one of the most expensive towns in NJ.

  14. Dumbasses get slaughtered. Same as it ever was.

  15. This guy McDowell should just wait. Fog-a-mirror lending will return…it’s just a matter of how long it will take.

  16. JJ says:

    The lady in charge of my public school district is a house wife in her 50s.

    She makes 750K a year.

    She did 30 years in one district and retired with a 400K pension. and we pay her 350K, we got a bargain as she cant double dip on pension or medical so we are only on hook for salary.

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 26, 2015 at 8:11 am
    ExPat [2],

    You can’t sell a house in NJ if you calculate property taxes. It’s a side fee, like paying the electric and gas bill. It’s really a nuisance that needs to be ignored.

    By the way, I was talking to a friend last night that works in a school district in Southern Bergen County. She told me the combined salaries of a husband and wife team that are elementary school principals in the district is over $300,000. You know, it’s justified because you have to make believe you’re for the children while being a Warden.

  17. The Watcher in Westfield has gone viral.

  18. Talk about buyer’s remorse…

  19. JJ says:

    These are two long island teacher salaries

    Carole Hankin
    District: Syosset Central Schools, NY
    2009-10 Pay: $485,246
    James Feltman
    District: Commack Union Free Schools, NY
    2009-10 Pay: $657,970 (Retired)

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol…too funny. I really don’t understand some people.

    Ben says:
    June 26, 2015 at 8:18 am
    He could move to a less expensive town where homes are cheaper, but he wants to stay in pricier Westfield for its good schools.

    He could move to a less expensive town, increase his standard of living 5 fold, but instead, insists on living in one of the most expensive towns in NJ.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    19- Are they really teachers?

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:

    I didn’t know the street so I had to look it up. It’s in a section of the Brig that I called The Hood. Basically, it’s the minority enclave.

  23. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Still, he cannot stop dreaming of a better life for his family

    He needs to keep dreaming.

  24. Libturd at home says:

    Hey.

    The supreme court ruled to allow same sex marriages. I am surprised by this decision as someone actually crossed their political line. How rare!

  25. Libturd at home says:

    How about that Shanghai Index?

  26. homeboken says:

    Why all the anger towards the guy in the article? Serious question? Guy is not looking for a handout, not seeking to live in a mansion. The $200k house is a sh!thole – yet this board is trashing the guy, assuming he wastes his money on TV’s and vacations. I doubt that, I read the article, aside from the 2 new car purchases (which he can sell) he doesn’t seem to be living extravagantly. Do the math, AMI for a 4 person family in Union County is 91,500. This guy is lower middle class, yearning for a middle class upgrade. And you all are sh!ttting on his dream. Cynical, angry old farts all of you.

  27. leftwing says:

    Lib

    Kennedy has been for gay rights for a while. Was lead on the 2003 opinion IIRC.

    Wish they just let the legislative process play out. It was going that way anyway, 37 states already. By coming in the Supremes have created another Roe v Wade scenario. And, from our conversations yesterday, created a rallying cry for less tolerant where none existed.

    Wonder when Texas is going to secede…..

  28. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    His tweets are very revealing. Too bad he didn’t try and make a change while he was there, but there isn’t a system in place to support that. Glad he’s taking a stance and speaking out about it.

    An interview with the Baltimore cop who’s revealing all the horrible things he saw on the job

    On Wednesday, a former Baltimore Police Department officer named Michael Wood caused a stir online when he began tweeting some of the horrible things he claims to have seen during his 11 years on the job.

    So how long were you a cop in Baltimore? When and why did you leave?
    Wood: Eleven years. …..Then I was promoted to the Violent Crime Division. I did street work with a narcotics division for six months. Then I was promoted to Major Crimes.

    Your tweets suggest that you were once part of what you consider to be the problem in policing, but that you had an awakening of sorts. What caused that?

    But sitting in the van and watching people just living their lives, I started to see that these were just people. They weren’t that different from me. They had to pay rent. See their kids off to school. The main difference is that as a white kid growing up in my neighborhood, I was never going to get arrested for playing basketball in the street. I was never going to get patted down because I was standing on a street corner. There was no chance I was going to get a criminal record early on for basically being a kid.

    You were in the Marines….

    But when it comes to former military joining law enforcement, I’m in the camp that says they’re going to be better when it comes to shootings and using force. Bad police shootings are almost always the result of a cop being afraid. … The military strips you of fear. Here’s the thing: There’s nothing brave or heroic about shooting Tamir Rice the second you pull up to the scene. You know what is heroic? Approaching the young kid with the gun. Putting yourself at risk by waiting a few seconds to be sure that the kid really is a threat, that the gun is a real gun. The hero is the cop who hesitates to pull the trigger.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2015/06/25/an-interview-with-the-baltimore-cop-whos-revealing-all-the-horrible-things-he-saw-on-the-job/

  29. Juice Box says:

    re # 25 – There is about $8+ trillion US dollar carry trade thanks to ZIRP. Approx 3 Trillion in emerging markets etc. Funds with $1.7 trillion under management track the index MCSI index, China was trying to get their A shares added to the MCSI index.

    http://quotes.wsj.com/MSCI

    It may be too late now as Shanghai drops, China is going to have to QE.

    Delevergaing and margin calls if the emerging markets continue to drop, selling performing assests because you have to just like in 2008 and 2009.

    Should be interesting get some more popcorn.

  30. yome says:

    At $70,000 annual income and paying 50% of monthly gross income to housing,that comes out to be $2,916. That is ridiculously high. Moving is a smarter choice. $800 a month for pre school. Dont they offer that for free in Public Schools? Student Loans nothing much he can do

  31. homeboken says:

    Yome – His rent is $1,400 – It’s in the article. 24% of his gross income, probably 32-33% of his net take home.

    The pre-k may be free, but it likely is not a full day. $800 per month for after-care sounds market rate to me – I pay it every month in Hoboken, so I have a comparison.

    Sure the guy could move – But I applaud him for making a sacrifice to get his kid into a good school. Sure – move to the West Ward in Newark, the rent is cheap, and you can pretty much guarantee your kids never leave.

    I am not saying the guy is a saint. I have no clue. I just don’t see evidence of him doing anything offensive. He’s trying to improve his station in life and that of his kids. But it’s easier to call him a “Dumbocrat” I suppose.

  32. Juice Box says:

    re #26 & 30 – No, No, No we need a new Zero Down Mortgage program with closing costs rolled in. $3.5% downpayment + closing costs is just not obtainable on a $200,000 home with $100,000 income.

  33. Ben says:

    Why all the anger towards the guy in the article? Serious question? Guy is not looking for a handout, not seeking to live in a mansion. The $200k house is a sh!thole – yet this board is trashing the guy, assuming he wastes his money on TV’s and vacations. I doubt that, I read the article, aside from the 2 new car purchases (which he can sell) he doesn’t seem to be living extravagantly. Do the math, AMI for a 4 person family in Union County is 91,500. This guy is lower middle class, yearning for a middle class upgrade. And you all are sh!ttting on his dream. Cynical, angry old farts all of you.

    That’s what you get for putting yourself out there in the New York times. And yes he is living extravagantly. If you have a savings account that is empty when you have $100k in household income, you should be ashamed of yourself. When I got married at 28, my wife and I had a combined income of about $110k. We lived off of less than one salary and completely banked the other. We had a 1 bedroom apartment and lived very frugally. By the time it was time to buy a home 6 years later, our combined savings was $320k. I bought a nice house putting 40% down and now we live off my salary alone while she stays home and takes care of the kids. Prior to that, we paid for both of our cars with cash and all of our student loans.

    This guy can’t even get to $40k for his downpayment. There’s a reason why. He’s been living in f*cking Westfield the whole time. Had he decided to rent elsewhere for maybe 2 or 3 years, he’d have his down payment for that crap shack. It doesn’t cost 91k to raise a family in Union County…

    As for old fart…I’m pretty sure this guy has 10 years on me. I’m 35, have a nice house…same number of kids….living on less income, and I could buy his piece of crap Westfield dream for cash tomorrow if I wanted to.

    Every single real estate article always starts out with a sob story. It’s usually their own fault. Are we seriously supposed to feel sorry for the family who takes in $100k combined and has not a dime in savings? I know families who take in $50k combined and save $10k a year.

    I get it, it’s a nice town with good schools. That’s why it’s so incredibly expensive. We have hundreds of towns in this state that are great to raise a family in while supplying your kids with a great education. Westfield is a luxury, not a necessity.

  34. leftwing says:

    Homeboken

    I’m usually the most ‘cynical’ and likely among the ‘oldest’ farts here…

    Kind of agree with you. At least this guy didn’t game the system last time around. What he has for it…a high priced rental and dreams of a house most on this board would not purchase. Failing of the system.

    As it relates to the town because of kids (need a good school district, pre-K and other costs) I’m less sympathetic. I put off marriage to my college sweetheart (and lost the opportunity) because we weren’t ready. She was heading off to grad school and I was establishing career. Didn’t have kids *until* I was sure I could provide the lifestyle I wanted for them, not before.

    Just having the ability to birth (over a billion people have done so recently) does not grant you any claim to a lifestyle for those offspring or yourself.

  35. Ben says:

    Side note: As a teacher, the allure of getting into a “good school district” is way overrated.

  36. I guess it’s a real thing:

    https://twitter.com/npsteve/status/335120973420449796

    Really think today’s thread should be dedicated to sl0t-shaming Bristol Palin.

  37. [31]His empty bank account, spotty credit, and dual car loans say otherwise


    He’s trying to improve his station in life and that of his kids.

  38. [37] BTW, that picture looks a lot like he has a wireless keyboard on his lap working a presumably big flat screen on the wall of his bedroom.

  39. My wife and I watch a 20″ Sony in bed that I bought in 1996. That was our living room TV until 2002, and the HD set we bought in 2002 is still our living room TV. That’s right, we watch 1080i, not 1080p, but our bank and brokerage accounts aren’t empty and we own 4 cars with no payments.

  40. Make that 2004 when we bought the HD set. BTW, it’s a CRT, not a flat screen. Mostly I don’t replace it because I don’t want to lift it.

  41. homeboken says:

    Expat – congrats on your frugality. The flat screen TV argument is dated – they are not expensive. A quick Amazon search yielded 29 flat screen models for sale that are 40inch 1080p, all cost less than $300.

    The TV is not the expense worth noting. Heck, just like phones, DirecTV, Dish and FIOS could give flat screens away with 2 year contracts to their overpriced cable services.

    And Ben – The guy is 41 – no need to assume he has 10 years on you, his age is stated in the article. But again – It doesn’t seem like many here read it, or care to comprehend before offering their opinion.

  42. joyce says:

    “The hero is the cop who hesitates to pull the trigger.”

    But the dog was barking at me!!!

  43. joyce says:

    As a libertarian, I thought you would have disliked legislation regarding personal behavior.

    leftwing says:
    June 26, 2015 at 10:32 am

    Wish they just let the legislative process play out.

  44. leftwing says:

    Suburban lifestyle is not cheap for two working parents with a child. Two cars are needed, plus childcare if there is not a family support system.

    I won’t begrudge any family loans for better cars in that case. Long term (heck, short term) a newer, more reliable car is less expensive than the discount clunker.

    Add up suburban costs – cars, child care, insurance – throw in food and there really isn’t that much left over for rent.

    Is Westfield more expensive than some other area? Yeah. Does it matter for this family? Likely not. They have made a lifestyle decision that just is not affordable in the metro suburbs – raise a family of two workers and children on $100k.

  45. leftwing says:

    “As a libertarian, I thought you would have disliked legislation regarding personal behavior.”

    Haha, generally, yes. My solution way back when was for the State to do away with ‘marriage’ altogether. The State would issue ‘union’ certificates to any parties seeking ‘marriage’ and leave ‘marriage’ as the religious union. The couples united (gay or straight) would get the legal benefits of marriage – inheritance, health care, tax treatment, etc – through the State union. The ‘sanctity of marriage’ crowd would still have their exclusive concept of ‘marriage’ while deriving their ‘marriage’ rights through the same civil union as everyone else.

    The basic argument in front of the Supremes this time wasn’t really personal behavior, it was States rights v. civil rights.

    Don’t know what political philosophy it falls in but for controversial issues I would much rather let them bake in the States and go federal when there is overwhelming State support rather than have nine octogenarians decide for 312 million people who are split.

  46. leftwing says:

    with the nine octogenarians splitting themselves, 5-4, btw.

    that tells you all you need to know that the Court should have stayed away from this one

  47. joyce says:

    “The State would issue ‘union’ certificates to any parties seeking ‘marriage’ and leave ‘marriage’ as the religious union. The couples united (gay or straight) would get the legal benefits of marriage – inheritance, health care, tax treatment, etc – through the State union.”

    That would be an improvement, yes. I think an even better approach would be: [1] if people want to dedicate themselves to another person(s) (religious or otherwise) have at it.. whether or not that includes a ceremony who cares [2] if people want to agree to share property/inheritance in a legally documented way.. draw up a contract, involve a lawyer if you want; and finally [3] the govt granted legal “benefits” of marriage are to be undone via legislation/regulation.

  48. leftwing says:

    Joyce

    I think we will end up getting very legal about marriage and relationships in the near future, gay or straight.

    I closed on an epic three year divorce last month. Only once you file for divorce, as a male, do you find a very large support group of similarly situated people and learn an area of the law about which you knew nothing and is very different.

    I am told I did ‘well’ in my situation. Don’t know, and in any case there is not any bitterness in the following statements…I can assure you I will have a very upfront discussion with my sons when in the not too distant future they contemplate marriage. Can also assure that if it appears they may become ‘exposed’ (stay at home wife, high earning job) they will at least be offered the proper legal protections. I have already made sure that any moneys they may have from my side of the family will be in a non-control, separate entity to which the married couple will not have access.

    The things you learn……premarital and comingling……one transfer of convenience can lift significant sums from your pocket….

    Anyway, sorry for the diversion. My point is that with the current legal issues surrounding marriage and the massive cohort of boomers going through divorce with disputable assets and earnings I fully expect a ‘documented’ marriage – however delivered to whomever – to be the norm.

    In the near future having a marriage lawyer represent each side before union will be common.

    Will there be some milkmaid in Minnesota offended that the romance is being taken out and go traditional, yes. But for the majority of citizens not having lawyers represent you for marriage will be as weird as going into a real estate transaction without a one.

  49. homeboken says:

    48 Leftwing – I witnessed family go through the divorce situation and it was really disturbing. One parent lobbed an abuse claim, which was never proven, but resulted in a TRO for the other parent and supervised visitation. The goal of this divorce was not separation so each could get on with their lives – Instead, one party was actively trying to destroy the other, financially and emotionally.

    I am related to the aggressor parent in this situation and I found myself feeling pretty sorry for the non-related. It still remains a bit of a mess today.

  50. Ragnar says:

    Apparently this story below, the McDowell guy has been going to school at Kean University since 1993, dropping out, and re-entering, and finally graduated this year. His wife isn’t a college grad. If they are still trying hard and not expecting others to pay their way, I’m not going to criticize. But he needs to start converting his degree into earnings and savings quick, not blow it on a house right away. Unless his employer is paying for it, I don’t think a Kean MBA will be worth much.

    http://www.keanxchange.com/content/kean-grads-turn-their-tassels-toward-promising-futures

    Johnnie McDowell ’15, who first enrolled at Kean in 1993.

    After a few semesters, “life happened and I had to leave,” said the Westfield, N.J. In the years that followed, he faced adversity head on, joined the U.S. Army National Guard, started a family and worked to keep it all together. In 2007, 2010 and 2014, McDowell returned to Kean through Project Readmit – a program inspired by his unwavering determination to graduate – each time, completing a few more courses toward the B.A. in Criminal Justice he received this week.

    “I’m really inspired and very proud of my husband,” said Takiba McDowell. “I’m not a college graduate, but seeing him, being here, makes me want to go to school.” Her husband plans to pursue his M.B.A. at Kean.

  51. homeboken says:

    Ragnar – too late, the board has already branded him a worthless zero because he “may” own a wireless keyboard, flat screen TV, and didn’t save 50% of his net take home pay like Ben was able to do for 6 consecutive years.

  52. Ben says:

    Suburban lifestyle is not cheap for two working parents with a child. Two cars are needed, plus childcare if there is not a family support system.

    I won’t begrudge any family loans for better cars in that case. Long term (heck, short term) a newer, more reliable car is less expensive than the discount clunker.

    Add up suburban costs – cars, child care, insurance – throw in food and there really isn’t that much left over for rent.

    Is Westfield more expensive than some other area? Yeah. Does it matter for this family? Likely not. They have made a lifestyle decision that just is not affordable in the metro suburbs – raise a family of two workers and children on $100k.

    435k home, 2 kids, 2 cars. I’ve been doing it off of a $60k a year salary for the past 3 years as my wife is at home with both kids. Even if I paid for day care, the numbers you are tossing out are way above what I’ve found….and my mortgage payment is a lot more than his rental payment.

  53. JJ says:

    Q Why did the Hipster buy a loft in the Bronx in the Spring?

    A He wanted to do it before Summer while it was still cool.

  54. homeboken says:

    Ben – You have a 435k home, you said you put 40% down, sop you have a $261,000 loan?

    His rent is $1,400 per month. Unless you are paying >5% your mortgage is less. Unless you are counting our T&I as well.

    In any event – you and the guy in the article are basically the same with just subtle differences. You make 60k/year, he makes 70k. You don’t have day care costs, he does, but his wife makes 30k/year to cover that. You have 2 new cars paid for cash, he has 2 new cars financed. He lives in Westfield, and I don’t know where you live…

    The difference is that you were able to save early in your marriage and buy. He currently rents and wants to buy now.

    Really – This guy is you, just later in life.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, playing off dumb people. He forgot about compounding and also the contribution from the state. But it fits his argument so he just spits out lies.

    “Railing against teachers, he claimed the average 30-year teacher contributes just $195,000 of the $2.6 million in pension and health benefits they receive over their lifetime.

    Christie said Friday he’ll make the largest payment the state can afford, but he won’t burden taxpayers with the cost of maintaining “a broken system.”

    “The taxpayers of New Jersey are not, as long as I’m here, going to be the ones that shoulder the blame for their gluttony…,” he said.

    The New Jersey Education Association responded Friday that Christie’s ignoring the role of investment income in funding pensions, and the system is ailing because of chronic state underfunding.”

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/06/christie_vetoes_nj_budget_tax_hikes_urges_increase.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    57- Lib, never thought about this. Did you account for this in your math in your pension formula? That’s a big missing factor in your math equation stating the workers do not put enough in. You never accounted for the compounding interest on the way down. So incorporating that into your math equation, do you now realize how the govt worker was robbed by the politicians?

    “@MR Isn’t it more than thirty….it compounds on the way up and compounds on the way down and if invested correctly, the compounding interest can pay the entire withdrawal. Plus, don’t retirees go on Medicare at 65? Doesn’t that reduce the cost of their medical benefit from the state? yes by a factor of ten”

  57. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [51] You are correct sir! He is a worthless zero. If you want street cred for keeping your family together and having zero savings and bad credit, the Brig should not be your stage of choice. Try Morris County and points West. You’ll still get black points, but they’ll count for more.

    Ragnar – too late, the board has already branded him a worthless zero because he “may” own a wireless keyboard, flat screen TV, and didn’t save 50% of his net take home pay like Ben was able to do for 6 consecutive years.

  58. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t think the article touched on his student loan and credit card indebtedness. My guess is he is at -$50K net worth with zero retirement assets.

    Ben – You have a 435k home, you said you put 40% down, sop you have a $261,000 loan?

    His rent is $1,400 per month. Unless you are paying >5% your mortgage is less. Unless you are counting our T&I as well.

    In any event – you and the guy in the article are basically the same with just subtle differences. You make 60k/year, he makes 70k. You don’t have day care costs, he does, but his wife makes 30k/year to cover that. You have 2 new cars paid for cash, he has 2 new cars financed. He lives in Westfield, and I don’t know where you live…

    The difference is that you were able to save early in your marriage and buy. He currently rents and wants to buy now.

    Really – This guy is you, just later in life.

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [60] On second thought, I think my figures are low. -$75K. “We have dreams, my wife and I have dreams….that’s why we buy lottery tickets.”

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [56] LOL. homeboken – We pretend our property taxes away in NJ. It’s barely more than $1K per month, probably enough change in your Mercedes cup holders to pay that each month;-)

    Unless you are counting [y]our[sic] T&I as well.

  61. Ben says:


    Ben – You have a 435k home, you said you put 40% down, sop you have a $261,000 loan?

    His rent is $1,400 per month. Unless you are paying >5% your mortgage is less. Unless you are counting our T&I as well.

    In any event – you and the guy in the article are basically the same with just subtle differences. You make 60k/year, he makes 70k. You don’t have day care costs, he does, but his wife makes 30k/year to cover that. You have 2 new cars paid for cash, he has 2 new cars financed. He lives in Westfield, and I don’t know where you live…

    The difference is that you were able to save early in your marriage and buy. He currently rents and wants to buy now.

    Really – This guy is you, just later in life.

    You missed the whole premise of my posts. He could be me. But he’s not, because he is not frugal enough. And I would hope I count property taxes. It’s $11k out of my pocket each year.

    I wouldn’t call the differences subtle. I have a medium six figure net worth in cash and assets. He has a savings account of zero.

  62. Ben says:

    Ragnar – too late, the board has already branded him a worthless zero because he “may” own a wireless keyboard, flat screen TV, and didn’t save 50% of his net take home pay like Ben was able to do for 6 consecutive years.

    I didn’t brand him a worthless zero. Just a fool. And the bigger fool is the writer of the article trying to use him as an example of someone struggling. It’s all self induced. A simple move over to New Providence, and all his worries go away. There are plenty of sob stories that are legit. Journalists always pick the wrong ones.

  63. fiddlehead says:

    “They might take you out with them, but they’ll blindfold you.” Indeed, when another prominent New York chef offered to send me out with his preferred forager in Jersey’s Delaware Water Gap, he agreed to do so only if I’d wear a pillowcase over my head for the entire car ride. Eventually, the forager got cold feet and reneged on the deal altogether.

    http://www.grubstreet.com/2015/06/secrecy-of-the-foraging-economy.html

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:

    This will get anon and Otto out of bed, where they doubtless have been after celebrating wildly with each other the past few days.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/10/luxury/cartier-inequality-class-war/index.html?iid=ob_article_footer&iid=obinsite

  65. You mean, lottery tickets are not investments?

  66. Ben (64)-

    We now live in a society where facts count for nothing and feelings count for all.

  67. NJT says:

    #66 Fiddle

    ““They might take you out with them, but they’ll blindfold you.”

    Back in the 90’s I did guiding (Flyfishing for wild trout) on weekends. $150 per person (limit two) per day+ tip. Lunch was included. I also insisted on blindfolds.

    *By law only two fish could be kept.

    – Wish I had the time and patience to still do it as the customer base is far larger these
    days…

    Have a GOOD friend that would tell me anything except where he gets his wild herbs and mushrooms (personal consumption only). All I know is he gets them somewhere in Water Gap national park.

  68. joyce says:

    Can a person marry a corporation?

  69. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [71] I already have one wife too many.

  70. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Suddenly there’s a whole lot more places to go if you have a hankering to marry a 14 year old boy:

    http://www.usmarriagelaws.com/search/united_states/teen_marriage_laws/

  71. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    NMBLA might just move their HQ to Alabama.

  72. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. Notice how the “b” is lower case and bent over a little. Creepy: http://nambla.org

  73. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Joyce’s retirement plan:
    1. Marry a well-off corporation.
    2. Divorce the corporation and take half it’s assets.

    Can a person marry a corporation?

  74. njescapee says:

    Christie jumps in. Big Whoop! Clown car is gonna need new shocks now.

  75. NJT says:

    I know a horse that should run congress…he has alotta sense.

    – Those who know history are familiar with the above.

  76. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: [78];

    Christie jumps in. Big Whoop! Clown car is gonna need new shocks now.

    Wow, a CC fat joke! Regular knee slapper. You must have been one of Letterman’s writers — Seems like ol’ Dave told one of those CC fat jokes every night and they just never got old.

    Ahh, comedy gold…

  77. joyce says:

    77
    At least half

  78. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    Joyce (72)-

    No, but a corporation can take you up the arse.

    “Can a person marry a corporation?”

  79. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    Love revisiting Santorum’s ‘men marrying dogs’ comments…

  80. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    I think between NAMBLA link and various dog love/butt love jokes, a lot of gubmint attention is focused on this site.

  81. Ragnarian the Magnificent says:

    day, Jun 26, 2015 07:00 PM EST
    Gather around, screwed millennials: You must see this
    Arthur Chu

    Jennifer Phang’s indie science fiction film “Advantageous,” a darling of 2015’s Sundance, came to Netflix Instant Streaming earlier this week. If you’re a millennial, you have Netflix. If you’re an un- or underemployed millennial, you have time. Every un- or underemployed millennial needs to see this movie.

    We live in a renaissance of science fiction film and TV and “geek” culture in general — the accelerating pace of technological change thanks to Moore’s Law makes it hard to deny we’re living in “the future,” we’re all part-machine-part-human for practical purposes now, no one can guess what element of science fiction is next to become science fact, blah blah blah.

    You’ve heard that song and dance before. They use it to sell everything from splashy popcorn blockbusters with robot villains to artsy thinky indie dramas with robot antiheroes.

    But “Advantageous” is the first science fiction film I’ve seen that really grasps something I think is core to the experience of us young people who are on the bleeding edge of the troubling trend of Machines Taking Our Jobs Away.

    And the core theme of the film that makes it so important is also the one that I worry will scare a lot of its audience away. Because this is a science fiction film but not an action film — there’s no violence, no gunplay. There’s no heroes or villains, precious little of good-vs-evil conflict. There’s no pulsing electronic backbeat and even though there’s smartphones and holograms, there’s not that much visible technology, no one tapping madly at keyboards while incomprehensible lines of green text scroll down the monitor.

    Which makes sense, actually. These are all things we imagined would happen in “the future” of the 2010s back in the 1980s. The fears that defined the genre we call “cyberpunk” that set the tone for dark, dystopian futures for a generation were 1980s fears — fears of street gang violence, fears of nuclear war, fears of the drug trade. An adult in the 1980s, imagining a member of my generation, imagined someone doing designer drugs at raves, casually gunning people down in the street and hacking into the mainframe to trick China into launching their ICBMs.

    We don’t do a lot of that. In fact, the least fortunate of our Lost Generation of millennials don’t do a lot of anything.

    What “Advantageous” is that other science fiction films aren’t is quiet.

    That’s my experience of being an unemployed millennial in the 2000s. Long stretches of unnerving silence. Being one of a handful of unlucky young people walking aimlessly around in the middle of the day when civilized people are at work. Failing to make eye contact with each other or speak because we’ve forgotten how to have in-person conversations. Turning to social media or aimless Web surfing to fill the long stretches of emptiness, of boredom.

    I’ve joked, darkly, that the worst thing about being unemployed isn’t not having any money but not having anything to do.

    And to a large extent that’s what “Advantageous” is about. Yes, the eerily empty streets our characters walk through might be a result of the film’s limited budget — but it also makes sense within the film’s setting. All the buildings are empty; all the stores are closed. Homeless people wander the parks and sleep in the bushes and stare numbly into the distance. (At one point the characters try to walk into a restaurant only to find that it’s been boarded up and the owner, sitting inside, ignores them. They treat this as a normal, everyday occurrence.)

    We’re told that the world is in the grip of a tech-driven economic recession. There’s no jobs for anyone — anything the small elite of wealthy customers need done, they can get a machine to do for them better than any human can. Our protagonist, Gwen, is a spokesmodel for a cosmetics — essentially an eye-candy job.

    Even though she mentions having gone to grad school and hoping to go into teaching, there’s no jobs out there for teachers now that people can get any information they want from machines. The only job out there for a flesh-and-blood human who’s not already rich is a job that involves looking pretty and smiling at rich people to try to sway their opinions, and it’s a job she’s lucky to get and devastated to lose.

    (Every college-educated millennial who’s ended up taking a position in sales because it was the only thing on offer ought to be feeling a familiar twinge right now.)

    The film gets a lot of mileage out of taking all-too-familiar scenes from the 2009 recession and exaggerating them just enough to make them fully dystopian. Anyone who’s dealt with the infuriating process of being forced to apply for jobs through poorly-designed automated Web forms will feel Gwen’s pain as she argues with a recruiter telling her her résumé has been “red flagged” and she slowly realizes, as the recruiter’s voice on the phone devolves into ELIZA-like nonsense responses, that she can’t get a job because she’s talking to a poorly-programmed machine that’s taken someone else’s job.

    Anyone who’s felt the intense pressure of the college-application arms race will sigh at Gwen’s daughter, Jules — who appears to be 11 or 12 but talks, reads and writes at the college level — calmly telling her mother about a journal article she read describing how her generation’s high-pressure lifestyle means she’s likely to become infertile by her 20s.

    Jules needs a $10,000 deposit to get into an exclusive summer camp in order to get into an exclusive prep school. Without those credentials, she’s unlikely to get a job — any job — at all. Her genius-level abilities are barely enough to get her foot in the door, and without connections and credentials and money, she’ll never be able to walk through it.

    It sounds like an exaggeration, if you personally haven’t witnessed a Facebook feed filled with top-ranked students from top-ranked schools with thousands of dollars of student loan debt clawing and trampling each other to get minimum-wage call center work.

    And Gwen’s response to the impossible situation of trying to secure a future for her daughter when she doesn’t even have an income anymore isn’t to pick up a gun and start shooting anyone. The long scenes of her sitting in brooding silence while racking her brains for a solution are, in fact, punctuated by explosions going off in the far distance, part of a hopeless war against the government by unnamed “rebel forces” — but those explosions are oddly silent, oddly peaceful, and they never feel completely real.

    It feels like the warlike shouting and chanting from Zuccotti Park that most of us sat at home and watched on TV — a revolution I now feel happened mainly because our generation felt the essential frustration, the essential wrongness of the actual soundtrack of the recession, an eerie passive silence, and some of us tried to force some noise into the silence just to fill it up.

    But it didn’t work, because there was no victory condition, no enemy to defeat, no Death Star to blow up. In retrospect the protests feel as futile as the quiet clouds of smoke in the “Advantageous” skyline. You can’t blow up an entire world, an entire economic system; you can’t beg it for mercy or shout moral imprecations at it either. Break things, throw things, scream things — at the end of the day you still don’t have a job.

    I think on some level we’ve always understood this. I think on some level we’re silent because the damage done to us was done through silence — no one beat us up or assaulted us or stole anything from us. All that happened was the phone didn’t ring, the email never came, the poorly designed Web form spat out an automated “You will be contacted shortly” that was a lie.

    “Advantageous” is a quiet film, and a pretty one. The city Gwen and Jules’ cramped apartment exists in is gorgeous and clean. When we do hear music, it’s not pulsing techno or anarchic punk but a street musician plying his trade, playing beautiful classical pieces on the violin — perhaps he got a degree from Juilliard only to end up as destitute as Gwen.

    The gritty slums of the cyberpunk milieu purported to be about a world where technology was grinding down humanity but what they really showed was a world where humans could still strike back at things — could graffiti the walls, shatter the windows, shoot pockmarks into billboards, and the property owners couldn’t keep up with the damage. Vandalism is, at the very least, a sign of human activity — a sign that someone out there is still doing something.

    The eerie Disney cleanness of Gwen’s city’s streets — the way the damage caused by the rebel bombings causes no one any concern and is seemingly fully repaired overnight — is a sign of a world where the things have won and the people have given up.

    That, for me, was the worst thing about the recession — seeing shiny storefronts and clean-swept streets and all the trappings of a thriving economy — but none of us participating in it. The recovery from our recession was a so-called “jobless recovery” — still plenty of stuff being made, still plenty of money, in the hands of increasingly few people, to buy things with. The economy of things is doing fine, and always has been. It’s only the economy of people that collapsed.

    The anger that comes from feeling oppressed, exploited, used — that’s one thing. The weary, quiet frustration from feeling ignored, forgotten, useless — that’s something different.

    There are other themes in “Advantageous.” It’s mentioned that women have borne the brunt of this recession because, a suited executive bluntly tells Gwen, people fear the social disruptions frustrated men might cause more than they fear frustrated women —something that rings eerily true in the past few years, where a handful of men who feel left behind by the modern world are increasingly willing to channel their grievances into extremist ideologies and trying to puncture our generation’s silence with escalating acts of violence.

    Gwen, a highly intelligent woman who’s been reduced to making a living solely off her looks, is being replaced by her employer because they want a younger and more “universal” look for their brand. Gwen is portrayed by Jacqueline Kim, an Asian-American actress who turned 50 this year and who co-wrote the script for “Advantageous” — it’s hard not to see this plot point as reflecting Kim’s real career.

    And then there’s the climactic decision Gwen must make, whether to take advantage of a “cosmetic procedure” that involves uploading her mind into a more youthful, racially-ambiguous body. While it’s far from a unique conceit, in the context of this film the idea of reducing people, especially women, into commodities, where technology makes our identity mutable and economics makes it negotiable, takes on extra resonance.

    We live in a world where cheap and plentiful technology has made us cheap — the market for human labor is glutted. There’s too many of us out there, we’re too easily replaceable, almost none of us are specifically needed for anything. As a result, just to survive — just to avoid being irrelevant — we give away more of ourselves than we have in generations, selling our time, our privacy, our rights just for a chance not to be left behind.

    How much further will it go, “Advantageous” asks. How much less needed can people get, as the things get smarter and shinier and more efficient? How much more will you have to give away, if they ask you to — your body? Your mind? Your soul?

    The film doesn’t give any easy answers. But that’s the question we all need to be asking.

  82. D-FENS says:

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Justice Department will fast track the sending of $29 million to South Carolina to help families of victims of the mass murder of nine churchgoers at a historic black church in Charleston, a Justice Department spokesman said on Friday.

    An unspecified portion of the money, allocated under the government’s national Crime Victim Assistance Formula Grant program, can be used to provide services to the families of victims of the shootings at Emmanuel AME Church, spokesman Kevin Lewis said.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Speaking of Netflix, I just watched “Money for Nothing” for the second time. Highly recommended. I wonder if Volker wouldn’t have been so successful as Fed chair if he wasn’t so tall. Similarly, if Bernanke and Greenspan weren’t such p1n-pricks… (I bet Yellen has them both beat)

  84. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [85] Barring extensive nudity and “adult situations”….I’m out.

    And the core theme of the film that makes it so important is also the one that I worry will scare a lot of its audience away. Because this is a science fiction film but not an action film — there’s no violence, no gunplay. There’s no heroes or villains, precious little of good-vs-evil conflict.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    But, but, but anon and Otto said this was a figment of our imaginations

    http://www.phillymag.com/news/2015/06/24/philadelphia-voter-fraud-charges/

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    From a site called anongalactic (not kidding)

    “And that’s the tragic irony of all this: While the political left falsely believed it was denouncing slavery by pressuring every online retailer and government entity to ban the Confederate flag, the U.S. Congress was busy enacting a whole new level of total economic enslavement for everyone, regardless of their skin color.

    While ignorant “activists” ran around in mass hysteria, thinking they were banishing a symbol of enslavement to the history books, they were actually providing the necessary public distraction for quiet passage of the TPP’s fast-track authority.”

  87. Essex says:

    35. Your point of view is based on what? You teach and are omnipotent regarding every district in the state?

  88. Essex says:

    My issues with the schools has more to do with a demoralized workforce and a misguided state/ federal mandates than the perceived quality of the schools .

  89. Marilyn says:

    90 That’s the truth!

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agreed.

    Essex says:
    June 28, 2015 at 1:59 am
    My issues with the schools has more to do with a demoralized workforce and a misguided state/ federal mandates than the perceived quality of the schools .

Comments are closed.