This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.
Ground Rules
Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2019 or December 31st, 2019, please specify.
Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).
You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.
You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.
Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.
Real Estate
National
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB
New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – Other
Commodities
Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)
Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
Foreclosures
Delinquency Rate
Foreclosure Rate
Cybercurrencies
Date of crash
Total % decline during crash
Suicides as result of the crash
Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate
Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.
2018 Predictions can be found here:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2017/12/29/predictions-2018/
I think that No One wins the 2018 Predictions
Pumpkin was wrong on just about every single prediction made.
Color me SHOCKED!!
grim says:
December 31, 2018 at 6:27 am
Pumpkin was wrong on just about every single prediction made.
My predictions were dead on until the 4th quarter. Then they decided to try and kill this economic run for the time being. Earnings still killing it, job market killing it, yet no one wants to buy any investments all of a sudden out of thin air? It’s like a flip was switched and everyone has decided that we will now act as if a recession is here. Any economic data to support it, no, just self induced market moves like an absurd equity sell off and a decision to all of a sudden stop buying housing based on media headlines.
“The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”
grim says:
December 31, 2018 at 6:27 am
Pumpkin was wrong on just about every single prediction made.
Mortgage rates at or slightly below 5% was the only accurate one.
Equities double digits – fail
NJ outperforming national real estate – fail
National real estate up 7% – fail
NJ real estate up 10% – fail
High tier price point outperforming other tiers – fail
Local markets outperforming even more if Amazon was local (they are local enough) – fail
Commodities – fail
This is fairly solid.
Real Estate: National +5% price change on Case Schiller, no basis other than eyeballing high autocorrelation and seeing the most recent yoy increase was 6%.
NJ Case Shiller: lower than national price increase.
Equities: US/INTL/EM: All down. Valuations are pretty high, though that’s not a good predictor of 1-year ahead returns. Nobody knows.
Fed funds rate: 1.75%. That’s pretty much consensus. 2% if the stock market keeps rising, 1.5% if the market falls much.
Other: Pumpkin, Puzzy and Ottoman will continue babbling their drivel to the detriment of all. Libturd will provide useful tips on economizing.
For god’s sake, they have not met the housing supply needs in new construction for every year the past decade. They want me to believe housing is expensive right now? Just wait.
Add in current supply of homes aging quickly(newer housing lasts only decades as opposed to centuries), and you have a monster problem in housing on your hands in due time.
Was everything almost 100% correct going into 4th quarter before the plug was pulled?
grim says:
December 31, 2018 at 8:59 am
Mortgage rates at or slightly below 5% was the only accurate one.
Equities double digits – fail
NJ outperforming national real estate – fail
National real estate up 7% – fail
NJ real estate up 10% – fail
High tier price point outperforming other tiers – fail
Local markets outperforming even more if Amazon was local (they are local enough) – fail
Commodities – fail
Rising mortgage rate “lock in” will ensure that aging housing stock is not only maintained but upgraded. This effect will significantly reduce the necessary replacement rate for housing stock, and over the long term will increase the value of existing housing stock above inflation. If you think we’re looking at a decade or more of economic growth, this should not be overlooked.
With shrinking household sizes, potential reductions to immigration rates, I don’t know that I’d go long on a strategy focused on building houses.
The only factor here is internal migration rates. Florida and Texas stand to gain most here.
Not to mention the drive towards higher housing density to reduce housing costs – read: apartment buildings.
I predict idiot is finally put to pasture this year and he disappears. Beto orourke becomes the democratic front runner. He makes soci@lism and third world invasions sound s3xy
Didn’t realize that Beto married a girl whose dad is worth $500 million and controls a real estate portfolio worth $20 billion. Ever hear of a REIT? Her dad invented that.
Continually shocked at how individually wealthy all these socialists are. Beto himself was able to gain a net worth of more than $5 million while having a city council job.
I hear Bernie is now making himself a million dollars a year.
What’s the line on how long it takes Ocasio Cortez to become a millionaire? A year? Two max?
Clintons net worth, $40-50 million. Obama’s net worth, $40-50 million.
Want to become a millionaire? Become a democratic politician, not a CEO.
Look at Booker, look at Menendez, the list is nearly endless.
The irony in making a million a year and preaching social!sm.
Fed funds 2.75%
10 year 2.75%
Because I’m just repeating the forecast of an economist I know. It’s a pretty bearish view, assuming the Fed raises rates to near inversion into a slower-growing economy.
Gold 1200, guessing continued lack of trend
Stock markets – I have no idea this time. Further declines or rallies each sound plausible.
Housing – I see the Case Schiller index was up 4.9% from Oct17 to Oct18. I’ll guess further deceleration of price growth, with home prices rising 3% in 2019 measured the same way. And NJ will rise less, especially Wayne, as some people will just this year discover the tax effect of losing state and local tax deductions.
Other – I predict Pumpkin will continue to see himself as a brilliant forecaster, no matter what contrary evidence arrives.
Good points.
I just look at housing in most poor areas around here as barely standing, but like you allude to, they will be knocked down and made into new apartments.
The cheap housing located in the south and west that was built in the 1980’s has to be falling apart by now. No way someone that buys a 150k home actually maintains it. So those areas of our country must be riddled with these type of neighborhoods. They pretty much run a home into the ground and walk away from it.
grim says:
December 31, 2018 at 9:08 am
Rising mortgage rate “lock in” will ensure that aging housing stock is not only maintained but upgraded. This effect will significantly reduce the necessary replacement rate for housing stock, and over the long term will increase the value of existing housing stock above inflation. If you think we’re looking at a decade or more of economic growth, this should not be overlooked.
With shrinking household sizes, potential reductions to immigration rates, I don’t know that I’d go long on a strategy focused on building houses.
The only factor here is internal migration rates. Florida and Texas stand to gain most here.
Not to mention the drive towards higher housing density to reduce housing costs – read: apartment buildings.
I agree with your sentiments, grim. For some of them it’s “noblesse oblige” attitudes. For others, it’s driven by the split between their faulty ideals and the eagerness that others pay them for access to power. But the most dangerous ones of all are the true believers who really do believe in their leftist utopia.
Mao was from a wealthy family – how else could he have afforded to travel to Europe to pick up his Marxist dreams, or lounge around dreaming up poetry about the world he’d remake?
Speaking of Predictions.
35 years ago, Isaac Asimov was asked by the Star to predict the world of 2019. Here is what he wrote
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=star_web_ymbii
Warren doesn’t stand a chance against Trump, she’s a toxic candidate that would easily rally the republican base.
Apartment building all over Bergen co.
9:43 like the irony of evangelicals’ support of Godless immoral Trump who represents them with dog whistle BS and lies.
What will be the new Muppet Bait for 2019? Surely it won’t be a worthless virtual coin or pancakes in a can.
Other than a few nuggets that were obvious at the time (computerization), he falls flat, Asimov was more wrong than right.
He was so damn close with “mobile computers”, but then decides that they’ll manifest themselves like the robots in his books, and not mobile phones/personal computers.
10:o2 interest in Warren will be minimal – but my bet is that the Dems will reclaim the Presidency in 2020.
I predict:
The economy will get its confidence back and begin working its way out of this towards the roaring 20’s 2.0. Most likely second half of the year after housing comeback creates confidence in the economy.
The housing market will realize the salt deduction was no big deal, most actually have more money in their pocket under new tax law, and will start acting on it. Housing should really get going early 2020’s, but this year it should see positive trends as the individuals who have been patiently waiting to buy due to tax law start feeling confident about buying again. Also, 5% rates have now been accepted. The psychological shock that has caused market participants to take a step back has now wore off.
I believe equity market will have a great year by year’s end and should easily finish with double digit gains (they have been beat down, so 15% should be coming if economy continues to get stronger on the backs of housing getting its legs back)
Esx, that’s such a straw man. Must have picked it up from g@y bashing msnbc. People vote for what they thing a a candidate will do for them in office. Everything else is noise.
ExEssex – Trump has transformed the Democrats into a party that is now all-consuming hatred for him at all costs. They have to stand for something that transcends. I just don’t see it happening with the current slate of Booker, Warren, Beto, Biden etc, they will need an Obama 2.0….
But hey this is 2019 predictions not what happens at the end of 2020.
Only if Bloomberg runs against Trump. He is the only potential democratic candidate that can beat him.
Pumps –
1) asset price inflation while interest rates are rising?
2) equity market will have a great year? With what fuel housing? Wealth effect? Sans massive stock buybacks?
I would sooner invest in long dated corporate bonds…
Bloomberg–a kinder and gentler billionare!
Grim – He won’t run he knows a wall st, short and rich new york jew does not poll well in allot of states it takes to win. He has done his home work he is a numbers guy after all.
10:16 the Democrats have their challenges and many of their shortcomings are well-documented – yet Trump is not fit for office. 2019 will be a tough year for him.
Bloomberg can beat Trump at being Trump.
Bloomberg is wealthier, and a more successful businessman than Trump is.
Bloomberg is not broadly hated by the Trump base in the way that the other candidates are. Warren for example, stands zero chance, the Trump base would rally against her in huge numbers. She is a toxic candidate, unelectable.
Would the Trump base, those impressed by wealthy businessmen, rally against Bloomberg in the same way? Not sure, don’t think so.
Bloomberg could potentially pull over a solid number of Democrats and huge number of Undecideds.
If the economy doesn’t fail apart, and if the Trump foreign strategies start to play out – increased wages, job growth, low unemployment, good times. Who is someone on the fence going to vote for in 2020? Employed, times are good, not sure they’ll want to change that.
Not that I consider myself any kind of barometer, but I’d strongly consider voting for Bloomberg.
Juice,
You heard Mnuchin, they will inject economy with loans if need be.
Looser lending standards right when a huge demographic group is coming to purchase real estate.
There is a lot of money out there. The millennials are highly educated, making money, and getting ready to buy. They are coming upon peak earning and spending years. It’s total bs that the market can’t support current housing price growth. Every day boomers retire from good paying jobs is an opportunity for younger workers to get paid and go spend.
Also, I don’t expect them to go nuts raising rates, but if the strength of the economic growth dictates it, so be it.
ExExxex – re”challenges”
anecdotal story for you.
I was at a Christmas Party last week at a country club full of rich democrats, bundlers for the party. Talk of 2020 was almost verboten, there is no one to bundle for, nobody is picking a horse in the race yet was what I was hearing..
So Warren just jumped out early and said pick me, please, please please?
What candidate ever had a chance doing that?
Remember, trump will do whatever he can to make sure economy is strong heading into election. Let’s not forget that.
Warren lost me with her talk of generic drugs and her lineage to Crazy Horse. I’m curious you will carry the mantel. But by the time (prediction) we’ll be in full recession. Trump has no real understanding of global economics and has already set us on the Recession course. 2019 Recession.
There you go Pumps.. So you say loans looser loans AKA fog a mirror loans will drive asset price inflation again? Sounds like you want a repeat of the last housing bubble at all costs. All the millennials or whomever is coming out of College these days with massive school loan debt won’t be buying a house. The trend I hear is they are all heading back from College to their home towns and opening coffee shops and other small businesses, that does not sound like someone who is looking for a corporate job and a house in some leafy suburb past it’s prime.
Two things can happen, up or down. We have had a run of 113 months of growth. The longest ever on record was 120 months from the end of the 1991 recession and start of the 2001 recession.
History Rhymes folks….
SFH is dead. Millennial s having one or two kids and having them later and later means no big desire to schlep out to the suburbs. Birthrates are declining across the board except for white women in their late 30s into their 40s.
I agree with JB. Bloomberg’s appeal diminishes greatly outside of banking hubs. Trump was a known celebrity. People in general don’t understand how Bloomberg built his wealth. The key issues of trade, immigration, 2nd amendment do not favor bloom in the swing states.
He did the polling in 2016 and decided not to jump in. Instead he’ll throw big cash to someone in the primary. The lib billionaires are all probably creating a bama type Manchurian candidate as we speak.
10:49 you actually sound retRded.
The young people I know with student loans and the amounts they are paying off is just staggering. I don’t hear any of them talking about buying a house in the suburbs.
I actually think gillibrand would be formidable. Massive IQ and progressive.
My prediction is that Pumps remains the biggest loser and continues to delude himself that he is smart and educated and the only reason that he is ever wrong is because others are stupid.
Pumpkin was wrong on just about every single prediction made.
My prediction is that we enter into a 15 month bear market, but not until we see a big rally where Pumps once again says you should buy all of the AMZN you can at this price, just like he told you over and over again and got no credit for it.
I’d love to know what people think about spending insane money to build a wall. Good fences make good neighbors?
ExEssex – It’s more humane than an electric fence don’t you think?
Terry Crews?
10:o2 interest in Warren will be minimal – but my bet is that the Dems will reclaim the Presidency in 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA
Really quite good….. just sayin’….. called both selloffs….
chicagofinance says:
December 29, 2017 at 11:06 pm
I think people are going to be surprised at the positive impact on business of TCJA => hence employment => hence wages => hence inflation => hence the rise in the UST 10Y => hence the selloff in the stock market……. unlikely to materialize until August to October, but a selloff in January makes all the sense in the world…..I do not expect it though….
client with two sons….. one is fine about 29….. the other is 27 and was sold a bill of goods by an undergrad in kinesiology and then a following master’s…..
The 27 is headstrong and a SJW, and when the time came to practice, quit consecutive jobs in Colorado, South Carolina and Maryland, because the owners were focused on the “profit motive”……
Punchline….. $275,000 in student loans….
3b says:
December 31, 2018 at 10:53 am
The young people I know with student loans and the amounts they are paying off is just staggering. I don’t hear any of them talking about buying a house in the suburbs.
If Trump is impeached, then it is a clean slate….
If Bloomberg runs, he will take it…..
first warning shot…
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-23/shutdown-stock-slump-and-mattis-exit-cap-grim-year-for-trump
ExEssex says:
December 31, 2018 at 10:07 am
10:o2 interest in Warren will be minimal – but my bet is that the Dems will reclaim the Presidency in 2020.
Chi – Jeeze salary for that job is like $30k. He would be better off giving rub and tugs to pay off that debt.
I found only one job in California, none in NJ and NY.
https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=Kinesiologist&l=california&radius=100
Human nature, my friend…it never fails. That’s why it will always boom and bust…never fails.
Like Dorothy, follow the yellow brick road….follow the demographic spending patterns of biggest demographic groups in an economy, dependent on 70% consumer spending to grow, to figure out what’s coming. It never fails.
Juice Box says:
December 31, 2018 at 10:48 am
There you go Pumps.. So you say loans looser loans AKA fog a mirror loans will drive asset price inflation again? Sounds like you want a repeat of the last housing bubble at all costs. All the millennials or whomever is coming out of College these days with massive school loan debt won’t be buying a house. The trend I hear is they are all heading back from College to their home towns and opening coffee shops and other small businesses, that does not sound like someone who is looking for a corporate job and a house in some leafy suburb past it’s prime.
Isn’t the career path for OT or PT?
What a sucker. Let’s not apply this to the productive population, just a typical sucker who was never going anywhere based on the choices he makes. That’s why long term home ownership rate hangs around 60%…4 out of 10 individuals are suckers used to feed the rich in a capitalist based system. Someone has to be the food for profit.
chicagofinance says:
December 31, 2018 at 11:51 am
client with two sons….. one is fine about 29….. the other is 27 and was sold a bill of goods by an undergrad in kinesiology and then a following master’s…..
The 27 is headstrong and a SJW, and when the time came to practice, quit consecutive jobs in Colorado, South Carolina and Maryland, because the owners were focused on the “profit motive”……
Punchline….. $275,000 in student loans
A review of the predictions I made a year ago.
Forecast: New Jersey home prices underperform the national average again. According to NJAR data, 2017 house prices through November are unchanged compared to the previous year – $305,000 versus $305,000. I expect similar stagnation next year, I’ll call it a -2% to +2% range for 2018 in NJ (point estimate = -0.3%), compared to national appreciation in the mid-single-digits (point estimate = 5.1% using the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index).
Actual: NJ home prices are up 5.4% through November, according to the NJ Realtors®. So my forecast was too pessimistic and wrong, both on an absolute basis and compared to the national average. Through October, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index is +5.0% compared to the previous year, so I was on target on this one.
Forecast: Hudson County will put up the strongest price growth in New Jersey. These predictions are for the period of January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018.
Actual: Accurate. Hudson County is putting up the strongest price growth in New Jersey again in 2018, and it wasn’t even close versus the other 20 counties.
Forecast: Amazon announces HQ2 will be built in the Toronto area.
Actual: Wrong. A few weeks ago, I happened to meet the Toronto guy I thought would develop HQ2 there. He controls a lot of land around Toronto and knows how to get buildings built – the type of developer who could convince Bezos and Bezos’s people he could build HQ2 how Amazon wanted and when they wanted it. Turns out he is Walmart’s largest landlord in Canada (I confirmed), and Walmart has selected him to develop Walmart’s new HQ campus in Arkansas (I could not confirm). He didn’t want to alienate Walmart by going for HQ2, so he didn’t pursue it, he told me.
I predict real estate goes up another 4% and Pumpkin declares it a missed opportunity of a lifetime.
Here was my prediction a year ago. I guess I was half right
Pumps – re: “It never fails”
You must have slept through History classes.
I will spell it out for you. Without QE there will be no asset price inflation, no amount of Millenial spending can make any difference.
Without asset price inflation, how exactly will the government remain solvent? That’s an enormous debt load that can’t be paid for without inflation.
The old me pre 2008 would agree with you, but I’ve seen this rodeo show one too many times to agree today.
Chgo I am sure there are lots of stories like that out there. And the young people that are actually employed with good jobs but are struggling to pay student loans. That money could be stimulating the economy but it’s not. I am the old guy and I understand the world has changed. Pumps refuses to acknowledge that and believes there are hordes of millennial s out there just waiting to buy SFH s in the suburban hinterlands.
To juice’s point…. to be clear….if there is an earnings recession, then the P/E blows out (e.g., see below May 2009), but at current levels, residual QE impact and current (historically) loose monetary policy gives credence to PE compression in 2019. It could still create a flat or rising market if the E responds….
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 19.14 +0.08 (0.39%)
12:15 PM EST, Mon Dec 31
Mean: 15.73
Median: 14.73
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)
Price to earnings ratio, based on trailing twelve month “as reported” earnings.
Here it is Pumps, edumacate yourself.
Recession or No Recession? Which one is it going to be?
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/31/flattening-yield-curve-not-always-a-sign-of-recession-strategist-says.html
Juice the Fed should have let housing crash back in 08 .
It has certainly stimulated the economy in academia, and why we have so many well funded and aggressive SJW campaigns…..
3b says:
December 31, 2018 at 12:30 pm
Chgo I am sure there are lots of stories like that out there. And the young people that are actually employed with good jobs but are struggling to pay student loans. That money could be stimulating the economy but it’s not. I am the old guy and I understand the world has changed. Pumps refuses to acknowledge that and believes there are hordes of millennial s out there just waiting to buy SFH s in the suburban hinterlands.
Pumps -“how” They will do what they have always done in recent times. What they call “good inflation” as in assets prices maintained and NO rising what they will call “bad inflation” AKA wages and CPI.
It has been going on and will continue till we all are dead. All other talk is smoke and mirrors.
Prediction: if oil remains at these levels, it will trigger a high yield credit crisis….
Also, something funky is going on with GS and MS…… there is some kind of issue afoot…. especially GS …..WTF?
What’s wrong with generics?
ExEssex says:
December 31, 2018 at 10:44 am
Warren lost me with her talk of generic drugs
3b – ” Fed should have let housing crash in 2008″
Yeah and then the Moral Hazard argument will get trotted out again. Moral Hazard for who is the question this time again.
3b,
I can give you a ton of examples of people I know in their 30’s that have all purchased homes in north jersey area. Know a 35 and 34 couple, not married and no kids, that have finally moved out of parents house and bought a home in West Milford last year. They plan on getting married and I’m sure having kids will follow. You see, they still want what other generations before them wanted, just at a later age. That recession cost the millennials years of economic stagnation as it caused older people to work longer as oppose to retiring. So that traffic jam is starting to free up, and go to work.
I have another couple with 2 kids, that have lived in Clifton for past 7 years they have been married. Just bought a house in Pompton Plains that they are gutting and adding an addition to.
So tell me this time is different, I just don’t see it.
CHi – read Taibbi’s colorful write up.
https://tinyurl.com/ycte8sy5
Wow, opinions on this video are pretty much what I have been saying. Watch 6:05 to the end. Cycle is far from over, ladies and gents. Roaring 20’s 2.0….coined here first.
Last line says it all, inflation will come. Hot economy and tax breaks= inflation…
Juice Box says:
December 31, 2018 at 12:31 pm
Here it is Pumps, edumacate yourself.
Recession or No Recession? Which one is it going to be?
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/31/flattening-yield-curve-not-always-a-sign-of-recession-strategist-says.html
Video starts off with what I’m trying to get people to understand…the conditions in the economy are amazing. I’m not calling for the best boom of our lifetime for no reason.
No wage or CPI inflation pumps..You need to pay attention to the man behind the curtain.
What we get is more liar loans if anything at all. A new Director of FHFA will be appointed by Trump after Jan 6th most likely Joseph Otting. The CEO of Fannie Mae stepped down. The CEO of Freddie Mac says he’ll step down soon, a changing of the guard in Housing Finance.
We may very well get is what Trump wants next year lots of infrastructure spending, and eventually a bubble that could lead to strippers, hair dressers and baristas trying to flip homes again.
Juice the prudent and those who play by the rules get screwed.
3b – no doubt and we will again see their politicians the Democrats go along with it.
12:36 she suggested the government mfg. them.
The government does so many things these days; what’s wrong with doing that as well? It will bring competition, win-win.
Got my vote for best calls of the year.
chicagofinance says:
December 31, 2018 at 11:43 am
Really quite good….. just sayin’….. called both selloffs….
End the year with this…..
https://youtu.be/R8Nc3x_TkF4?t=1366
Pumps making his case that it’s way cheaper to lie about having degrees then to actually attain any.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 31, 2018 at 12:12 pm
What a sucker. Let’s not apply this to the productive population, just a typical sucker who was never going anywhere based on the choices he makes.
BTW, my calls were the most spot on:
The Original NJ ExPat says:
December 29, 2017 at 8:10 am
frist.
I predict that Pumps still won’t get his GED and his grammar won’t improve.
lol
Skip to the very last joke of the Louis CK set.
The Freaky Friday thing is classic
My 2019 predictions:
NJ house prices (NJAR), national house prices (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City) both slow from 2018 pace, rising 0% to 3%.
Hudson County house values seven-peat as fasted growing house price market of Nj’s 21 counties. However, Hudson house price growth slows below double digit pace of both 2017 and 2018.
Census reports that New York City’s population declined in 2018. NY Times acts surprised.
“Employment is more important than targeting prices,” said Koichi Hamada, an economist and retired Yale University professor who was one of the architects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-growth Abenomics policy.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-finally-concedes-its-crazy-low-prices-cant-be-beat-11545388205
I listened to the whole set with nyc road rage video as the sound turned down as the video to go with the set. Stellar. Thanks chi.
Skip to the very last joke of the Louis CK set.
The Freaky Friday thing is classic
Happy New Year All!
Random thoughts from today’s postings…
Bloomberg is by far the more qualified candidate. Problem is he gets Dems more votes in states they already win and few new electoral votes in states they need. His trademark issue is gun control and he has put tens of millions of his personal fortune into funding local opposition groups nationwide. He’s DOA in the swing states Dems need to recoup…Michigan, PA, Florida, etc. He should be DOA as a candidate.
Beto types are the candidates to watch. Like with Obama, the Dems need some amorphous ‘hope and change’ message light on specifics and a candidate with no baggage (experience). I’m still praying the left are stupid enough to take Warren. One can dream.
Chi, only thought on PEs is why use trailing at this point? Forward P/E is pretty cheap and even leaves some room with earnings contraction to stay around historical norms. Having said that I believe we will see another leg down before closing the year up.
My prediction, for which I need odds given it’s a long shot, is that Trump is out in the second half of the year. Likely from cover ups for underlying benign actions (two bimbo payoffs, Russian meeting) to protect Donnie Jr and Kirschner from more serious prosecution. He will, of course, both blame the press and declare victory as the door hits him on the arse.
Scumbags. Don’t worry, the American taxpayers will help them survive in old age. Just add another tax to our plate so that you could make a buck in the sleazy way.
“They did everyone dirty,” said Kilby Baker, 70, a retired warehouse worker whose pension check was cut by about 25 percent after Marsh Supermarkets withdrew from the pension. “We all gave up wage increases so we could have a better pension. Then they just took it away from us.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/as-a-grocery-chain-is-dismantled-investors-recover-their-money-worker-pensions-are-short-millions/2018/12/28/ea22e398-0a0e-11e9-85b6-41c0fe0c5b8f_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6fca5b3a907e
Yes, give me all the apple and amazon. Writing is on the wall.
“The expansion underlines the dizzying truth of Big Tech: It is barely getting started.
“For all intents and purposes, we’re only 35 years into a 75- or 80-year process of moving from analog to digital,” said Tim Bajarin, a longtime tech consultant to companies including Apple, IBM and Microsoft. “The image of Silicon Valley as Nirvana has certainly taken a hit, but the reality is that we the consumers are constantly voting for them.”
That’s evident in how robust Big Tech’s businesses remain. Last March, the research firm eMarketer said Facebook, including its less controversial photo-sharing site, Instagram, would earn $21 billion this year from digital ads in the United States. In September, it raised that forecast to $22.87 billion.”
https://apple.news/ARX0MoFHVS7G5cT2uD-RM3A
“Much as people are now wary or even unhappy with the outsized power held by Facebook, Google, Amazon, etc., they are simultaneously quite dependent on the services they provide,” said David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology”
“With so little to really worry about, Big Tech is planning for a future far beyond any present-day turmoil. Google, which has 3,500 job openings, says it is too early to say what the thousands of Diridon employees will do. But Jonathan Taplin, director emeritus of the Annenberg Innovation Lab at the University of Southern California, has a good idea: everything.
“They’re in the transportation business, the medical business, every business,” said Mr. Taplin, a frequent critic of how Big Tech took over a decentralized, independent internet. “There is no aspect of your life that they will not be involved in.””
A more balanced view of the pension shortfall affecting the supermarket workers in the Washington Post article.
The pension plan is a union multi-employer fund that has been mismanaged for nearly four decades, since 1982, when it was taken over from the Teamsters because of rampant fraud. The structure of the plan, counterproductive tax laws, poor investments, and the exit of UPS from the plan who saw the bad writing on the wall all contributed to this long term shortfall. To blame it on a private equity firm that did not even exist at the time is at best disingenuous. But hey, what else to expect from WaPo.
“In 1982, when control over its assets was moved to a government-mandated asset manager, the plan was less than 40% funded, about the same as it is today…”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2018/12/03/understanding-the-central-states-pension-plans-tale-of-woe/#3ed770c66c10
What difference does it make, it’s still the worker getting robbed from corrupt individuals while leaving the taxpayer with the bill for the heist.
Workers retirements will continue to be robbed over and over again simply because human nature will win out almost every single time. Just can’t trust people to do the right thing.
Too many individuals licking their lips with greed when managing these huge retirement funds. God knows how many people got wealthy off of workers retirement funds. Wall Street loves it some easy pension money.
yes, my oldest is now over $400k in student debt, mostly due to medical school.
He has been offered that same amount as annual salary for his first job out of Fellowship.