From the Record:
Bergen County home prices up 5.3% in April, while Hudson and Passaic County rise as well
A typical Bergen County home listed for $679,000 in April, up 5.3% from a month earlier, an analysis of data from Realtor.com shows. The median list home price in April was up about 8.6% from April 2021. Bergen County’s median home was 2,111 square feet for a listed price of $327 per square foot.
…
Passaic County’s home prices rose 0.5%, to a median $429,900, from a month earlier. The typical house was on the market for 21 days, from 23 days a month earlier. The typical 1,840-square-foot house had a list price of $242 per square foot.
Hudson County’s home prices fell 1.9%, to a median $500,000, from a month earlier. The typical house was on the market for 30 days, from 30 days a month earlier. The typical 1,002-square-foot house had a list price of $549 per square foot.
…
Essex County’s home prices rose 6.3%, to a median $449,000, from a month earlier. The typical house was on the market for 23 days, from 25 days a month earlier. The typical 1,876-square-foot house had a list price of $274 per square foot.
Across metro New York, median home prices rose to $715,000, up 2.3% from a month earlier. The median home had 1,424 square feet, at a list price of $598 per square foot.
…
Across all of New Jersey, median home prices were $469,900, rising 4.5% from a month earlier. The median New Jersey home for sale had 1,658 square feet at list price of $254 per square foot.
Buildout in Denver is crazy
Though it doesn’t really seem like much of a slowdown…
From Bloomberg:
Bidding Wars Show Signs of Cooling as Mortgage Rates Bite
The days of homebuyers getting into knock-down-drag-out bidding wars may soon be over.
After two years of a pandemic-driven buying frenzy that sent home values soaring, the competition for listings is showing signs of cooling off as mortgage rates hit the highest level since 2009. According to a new Redfin report, 61% of home offers faced bidding wars in April, down from 63% a month earlier and 67% in the same period of 2021. An offer is considered part of a bidding war if a Redfin agent received at least one other competing bid.
Great advice yesterday guys, thanks
Friend lives in the Denver area, says the homeless problem is growing exponentially and no one is doing anything about it. Loves living there though.
Sounds like the last of the partygoers in the back of the room, have not got the message yet. This is just getting under way, and already you have some real estate “experts” claiming mortgage rates may have peaked and will come down
It took years to get to this point, and some are expecting it to be over in a matter of weeks or months.
Nice single story in my neighborhood just went for $969k — 4/2 single floor. I’m thinking by next spring we’ll see a very different scene, but damn! It’d great to get a Mil for our place. Just for bragging rights. :)
Sub prime borrowers, Car loans/ credit cards, are struggling to pay their bills, WSJ article. It will start to make its way up from there to other borrowers.
Yes. The bottom rung is always the first to break. Ever notice that? And if you thought mental problems caused by the Pandemic were bad. Wait until you see the increases in suicide and depression from the massive loss of wealth the working class has suffered. Throw in fear of layoffs and the eventual drop in housing values and it’s going to be really ugly. Hopefully, there is something to save us. Lord knows the rich and their selfishness won’t. The government no longer can, especially with the current game of max divisiveness making it impossible to do what’s best for the people (not that they ever really did).
Government subsidized subprime lending saved us from the aftermath of the tech bubble. When the housing bubble popped, government asset purchasing and massive money printing (let’s call it debt) saved us from the great purge. Maybe Santa Claus this time?
I remember in 2006-2008, the instant the market slowed, people all over tv going “have we bottomed yet?”
Here you go, 3b..somehow this fits into puzzle as well.
REAL ESTATE
Adjustable-rate mortgage demand surges to 14-year high, as homebuyers try to afford this pricey spring market
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-price-target-slashed-by-wedbushs-ives-on-chinas-epic-disaster-twitter-circus-show-2022-05-19
“circus show” of Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk’s bid to buy Twitter Inc. TWTR, -3.84% has been a “black eye” for Tesla. “While the Twitter situation in theory does not impact the Tesla fundamental story, the distraction risks for Musk (perception is reality) are hard to ignore at a time that the Tesla ecosystem have never needed Musk more with the worst supply chain crisis seen in modern history,” Ives wrote. The stock has plunged 32.8% year to date through Wednesday, while the S&P 500 SPX, -4.04% has declined 17.7%.
Break out the NINJAs!!
By,
How could anyone in their right mind use ARMs during runaway inflation?
BRT,
Let’s not forget Bush/Obama BS first time HB tax credit. That bump is 2009 was pretty significant as lemmings jumped on board. Believe it gave false narrative that housing had bottomed when it is about to fall of cliff. The dumbest buyers were those who jumped on it and did not negotiate.
How could anyone in their right mind use ARMs during runaway inflation?
Hubby Alan Muppet does anything Muffy Muppet wants or he’ll be denied his once per month chance at s.ex. Muffy wants THAT house and Alan will give it to her.
Yes, that would be the first of many stimulus ideas that my family didn’t qualify for, even though our net income was often well under 100K. If you recall, all it did was move demand up slightly and caused buyers to overpay. We almost did.
This was followed by the automotive stimulus if you recall. This too pushed demand forwards and extended the length of the quandary.
Inflation prob already peaked and going to get slammed rather quickly. Deflation is the real threat.
“Important debate. In the last two days, Walmart and Target reported that nominal sales increased 3-4% on a year over year basis during the quarter ended April, translating into a 3-4% year over year decline in unit sales (adjusted for inflation). Their inventories are exploding.”
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1527138551128899585?s=21&t=E-g4jnXbZwzM_mBAJqAWdQ
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 8:41 am
By,
How could anyone in their right mind use ARMs during runaway inflation?
Bystander: Everything old is new again. It’s not different this time.
Come on, Lib. You know what is coming. Only a matter of time before QT is replaced with QE, and we start the new cycle again. Prob won’t even make it through next year without rates being dropped.
Remember, just like the job market went from ultra hot to layoff talk in a blink of an eye, the same thing will happen with inflation. Stocks going down…deflation. Layoffs…deflation. Huge inventory build ups….deflation. Low population growth….deflation.
“Government subsidized subprime lending saved us from the aftermath of the tech bubble. When the housing bubble popped, government asset purchasing and massive money printing (let’s call it debt) saved us from the great purge. Maybe Santa Claus this time?”
Real estate is never going to crash…understand this.
3b says:
May 19, 2022 at 8:52 am
Bystander: Everything old is new again. It’s not different this time.
The FED will come to the rescue if housing starts to crash…I promise you.
Cathie Woods giving advice, what nit wit would even listen to anything she has to say. She single handily lost massive amounts of money, and completely missed all the signs for inflation…..but the resident idiot calls her a genius. I guess that speaks volumes for our education system.
This guy actually teaches , you just can’t make this stuff up.
Lib: Very gloomy article in the NY Post this morning too on how bad the recession may be. Fed recklessness caused us to get here. This has been brewing for a decade.
So many relaxed and said it’s different this time, and the Fed will never let the markets go, we have the Fed put. Now we have the stock and credit markets cracking. Stagflation, recession, call it what ever people want, but it will be painful. Voices in the wilderness were warning for year’s, but they were dismissed and ridiculed. Throw in an ugly political environment, and things look bad all around.
“Real estate is never going to crash…understand this.”
~The Village Idiot
“These two entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.”
— Barney Frank, the other Village Idiot
You are an idiot. Who is correct 100% of the time? Who has never lost money in the stock market. Get a life.
What matters. What she was saying last year is coming true. She said used market would be the first to deflate. She said that companies would be flooded with inventory because they were overbuying in fear of inflation/supply chain….look what’s happening…target walmart anyone? So give it a rest with your clown response.
Jim says:
May 19, 2022 at 8:57 am
Cathie Woods giving advice, what nit wit would even listen to anything she has to say. She single handily lost massive amounts of money, and completely missed all the signs for inflation…..but the resident idiot calls her a genius. I guess that speaks volumes for our education system.
This guy actually teaches , you just can’t make this stuff up.
used car market would be first to deflate
Lib, you really believe a housing crash is coming? You think a great depression is coming? Question. How the hell do you have a housing crash with inflation? This housing market is not 2008…it was not driven up by unqualified buyers on zero down loans. Driven by demand.
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 8:59 am
And the minute deflationary pressures become amplified, the FED will step in to create inflation. That’s their job….
Forgot the biggest deflationary producer….high gas prices. It’s literally going to destroy high inflation. People are going to have to cut back, leaving companies fighting over a limited pot for their inventory. Some will lose and be stuck with too much inventory…hence, fire sales to get rid of it before it takes their company down.
“Remember, just like the job market went from ultra hot to layoff talk in a blink of an eye, the same thing will happen with inflation. Stocks going down…deflation. Layoffs…deflation. Huge inventory build ups….deflation. Low population growth….deflation.”
Fed put is dead, this is the cleansing process that’s long over due. Kiss that last 20 percent increase in housing prices good bye. And an ugly recession may put even more downward pressure on the already alarming decline in the birth rate.
My personal favorites. It is amazing that this Fed role exists to basically lie to the American people while all kinds of secret deals to support wealthy cartels. It is for our own good.
Q4 2005: Bernanke: There’s no housing bubble to go bust
Q1 2021: Powell: We’re going to be patient. Expect us to wait and see and not react if we see small, and what we would view as very likely to be transient, effects on inflation
re: “circus show”
Yeah Elon’s latest tweet that he is now voting Republican. I gather it is just another way for him to wiggle out of the deal, you know FTC, SEC etc have to investigate first……
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1526997132858822658?cxt=HHwWhMC40anz_bAqAAAA
Sure Blump. Looking at flights in Sept and prices are up 20% in the last week. The demand must be overwhelming, right? Deflation at work.
Housing is not going to crash, IMO. But the multi, which someone will likely pay close to a million for in the coming month, will most likely be able to be had for 750 to 800K in the next two or three years. As you can see, this inflation is not temporary. Even with the FEDs actions so far, inflation has not showed any sign of tempering. Nothing slows home sales like a recession. I expect this one to be pretty deep. Everything got supersized due to government stimulus. The recession too will be supersized. When people fear losing their job, they don’t purchase homes. Houses will sit on the market longer and prices will drop due to this. Many recently purchased homes will end up in default especially with the rising interest rates. These homes, which will sell at auction, will also bring down housing prices.
We all benefitted (a few, much more than others) from the recent excess. We will all pay the price for it. It is not going to be pretty.
This was the longest bull market ever. Time to revert to mean.
I get that shorting is needed for liquidity, but it’s such bs how it can be used to hold down stocks.
“So if @CathieDWood and @ARKInvest is long 50M $DNA, and $SARK is short 50M where are all the shares coming from? Hey Cathie I hope you guys don’t lend your shares, something is really rotten here. ARK should sell 1M, the next day $SARK has to Buy & if ARK is back buying look out”
Elon is the Ricky Gervais of the business world. Ds love his rhetoric then Rs love his rhetoric. At end of the day, guy does not believe in a damn thing except attention. He has no side.
Give it some time, you will see. This inflation is not sustainable. Only way it is sustainable is if the FED supports it. Right now, they are not.
You know what will happen…it will overshoot on the down slope due to a hard landing. FED will have to step in and reverse course….it’s only a matter of time.
Bystander says:
May 19, 2022 at 9:18 am
Sure Blump. Looking at flights in Sept and prices are up 20% in the last week. The demand must be overwhelming, right? Deflation at work.
I always hated Elon. He was always an attention whore. Kind of like Trump. His constant overpromising and underdelivering on TESLA was proof of this. Then when the board tried to silence him (and remove him) and he refused to stop participating on message boards? I knew there was something terribly wrong with him. Finally, the Doge promoting on SNL? What a twit.
The only move I praise him for was to essentially build his massive wealth through government subsidies. And now he bites the hands that fed him.
Again, a complete twit.
Even with the FEDs actions so far…
What did they do? Raise the rate by 50 basis points? They have another 500 basis points to go. When I can lock in a 12 month CD for 5%, then we’ll see.
DNA short interest is 10.5%
SARK works off of swaps.
Here is Blumpkin when he realizes the Fed has no control over this one:
https://i.makeagif.com/media/10-28-2015/1oMqf-.gif
Lib: Some people believe Fed rate hikes have instant effects.So they raised, rates, market reacts negatively,Ok now lower rates.
Except, it don’t work like that, there will be more rate hikes, and it will takes months for these hikes to work their way through the economy.
Fast,
When you can lock in 5%, you might be walking on skulls. The entitled corps and wealth cartels will convulse if they have to pay real rates. Look at Melvin Capital..guy just pulled up and quit bc one stock downturn. There are a staggering amount of financial companies that cropped up over 15 years leveraging Fed supplied bull market. The ‘I got mine’ will be overwhelming.
Lib, flying out of LGA with the family in August for a week. What was the name of the long term parking service ? I normally would fly EWR, but I couldn’t resist $167 roundtrip to Florida vs $300 plus pout of Newark. We have 6 adults in out party so we will take an SUV. Ill price uber black as well to see the difference.
Bystander,
So, the alternative is to bring wheel barrels full of cash to the store for a loaf of bread and a dozen eggs. Whatever happens, happens. Right? The FED needs to raise rates or the “I got mine” crowd will need to hire armed guards to protect their homes and their last remaining signs of wealth. Let’s line up the skull path.
2 and 3 year treasuries lately over 2.5% have not been a terrible place to park some cash I don’t need for a while. Better than an online savings and better tax treatment than CDs as well.
Of course already maxed ibonds (2021 + 2022) – may consider a 2023 gift ahead of time but not yet.
Plenty of dry powder to deploy every 5% more down we go…
Also nice time to tax loss harvest…
Wow, walking….I had to pay 500 a ticket to go to orlando out of EWR end of June. Robbery, but no choice.
Ed,
I think the armed security business will be a great investment opportunity when we all realize that this blog is a bit of echo chamber of well to do. The real world ‘no pot to piss in’ will be the barbarians at the gates soon enough. We all know inflation numbers are bald-faced lies. Rent increased 15-20% for lots of people last year, not 8%. It was all fine while stimulus checks and unemployment benefits were coming in. Things will move swifter than any can see coming. Lock your home, cars..and sheds.
You know Pumps, I was thinking about some of the verbal diarrhea you have been spewing recently. Especially your recent take at making risky bets on the market. You seem to believe that the stock market is a means to get rich and those who do not take large risks will never do well. You do realize, this is the complete opposite of how the vast majority gains wealth through investing in equities.
I like to call you a gambler, not an investor. An investor uses time and risk aversion to their advantage. By investing regularly and over a long period of time, compounding will do the work for them. This will work for ALL of them. A guaranteed 8% return with the occasional 10 and 12 percenters to offset those couple of rare years where the market declines. If you want to weight the 21st century returns a little more, than you would probably average closer to 10 to 12 percent annual returns.
Your pronounced style of investing (though it’s always hard to tell if it’s your schizophrenia or your compulsive lying) is much like that of a poker player. On the tables, there are generally three types of poker players. The poker pro, who studies strategy, understands pot odds and percentages to the point where they would ace a statistics class without ever cracking open the book. They will earn a decent living at most 5/10 or above tables, only losing when they have bad card luck. Then there’s the grinders (that’s me). They play well enough to go home a winner more often than not. At the end of the day, I could probably make about minimum wage with some free drinks and enough comp to get a sandwich. I’ll only play if I have better than a 50% chance of having the best five cards post flop (low blinds). Then there’s you. You’ve watched a few episodes of Poker After Dark. Maybe even read an article or two on a few strategies. Though, have spend little to no time learning the game. Yet you’re drawn to the table like an x-wing caught in a tractor beam. You’ve watched people who talk and dress and act like you win hundreds of thousands of dollars. What you conveniently ignore (whether intentional or not) is that those poker pros have put in more time playing and learning the game than you have have been paid to work your entire life. Last I read, the estimate of poker players who make over a million a year (much of that in endorsements as a result of their success) is probably around 100. There’s an estimated 150 million regular poker players worldwide. Yet you think you are somehow going to be among one of the 100. For what it’s worth, approximately 30% of the worlds poker players will come out ahead, most of them grinders.
So when you read of ARKK or BITC or NFTs or of any other investment that has made a few lucky early adopters millions, that tractor beam comes on and lures you into the nearest airlock. Of course, what you fail to realize, is that if you are hearing about it on CNBC or worse yet, reading about it in the WSJ, it’s already way too late. But it’s easy money, so you hop on board. Sure, there are incredibly studied investors who do much better than that 8-12% a year. But they put in the time and have gained the experience necessary, much like the professional poker player. And there are probably less than 100 of them in the world. And like the poker pros who get paid more for their endorsements than their poker winnings, these pro investors make most of their earnings on other peoples wealth for which they get paid a handsome fee to manage.
You see Pumps, there is no shortcut to getting rich off of the market. You can grind it out to a guaranteed successful outcome. You can be that lucky one in a million, who happens upon the black tulip. Or you can be part of the other 999,999 who lose it all.
Through discipline and diligence, I now make more off of my investments annually than I do working. I continue to be diversified, risk-averse and willing to learn. But when I hear about crypto, I laugh. ARKK, I laugh louder. NFTs? It’s a goddamned puppet show.
You have no idea how silly you sound every time you mention a one in a million investment. Self-awareness. You have none of it.
By the way, Jen Psaki was really good at what she did and promoted herself way better than promoting slo joe. This new press secretary s.ucks. Enough with the quota hires, just put the best person in a role that calls for experience, intelligence and know-how.
Possibly the best post i’ve read on here all year!
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 10:58 am
You know Pumps, I was thinking about some of the verbal diarrhea you have been spewing recently.
Lib , Superior post, but alas Pumpkin will not listen. I am not sure he can even comprehend what you are trying to tell him, after all he is a teacher who thinks he is smarter than everyone else.
Most people here will take information and use it productively, Pumps is not one of those people.
Not an LGA expert. I usually get someone to drop me off or pick me up there. Terrible public transit options and I’ve had nothing but bad luck with off-site long-term parking there (car damage percentage is 2 for 2). Neither paid for it either. Definitely Uber over Lyft when you have five or six with bags. Lyft qualifies any vehicle to make believe they are a 6 seater. Last Large Lyft, my son had to sit on a pillow between the captain seats and there was no room for bags. People don’t realize it, but public transit is definitely the way to go to JFK during rush hours. Especially when travelling alone or with one other. It’s quicker and significantly cheaper. The air train from LIRR Jamaica is a piece of cake. I’ve actually gone from plane door to front door in 80 minutes, multiple times.
According to MW article, national median rents will reach 2,000 in the 50 largest metro areas by August, if current trends continue although there has been a bit of a slow down, but if that slow down does not continue then the 2000.00 by August number.
Hell of a job Fed!!
Bush gave a speech yesterday where he condemned the illegal invasion of Iraq, (talk about Freudian slip) then corrected himself and said Ukraine. Are acceleration into decline started with Bush, and has continued up to today.
My sisters dump in Hamden CT went from 1750 to 2000 ask. She has moved to RI last week to be closer to HQ. One of my CT direct reports told me his rent went from 2250 to 2500 in Dec. He is one who got zero increase. H1b, so nice person for rich IB to kick around.
Lib, thanks for the tip. Wife would be upset with the damage. I’ll have to decide if I take the 15 year old Ford or Uber it . Looks like they want $100 one way may be the way to go.
As long as its not rush hour surge pricing, Uber/Lyft is not too bad. I use it frequently. Even moreso with gas prices where they are. Our CX-9 gets 17MPG on average. Between tolls and gas, it’s hardly more for Lyft. And I can Candy Crush the whole ride. My wife is 1,000 boards ahead of me since I do nearly all of the driving. :P
Also, Lyft/Uber is super convenient since you get dropped off right at the door by baggage drop off.
BTW, on airline ticket pricing. I’ve recently noticed that prices are dropping incredibly (to sell all of the premium economy seats) about a week to three days before flying. I may do some West Coast college visits with my son this way.
Let’s play devils advocate. I appreciate what you are saying, but look at it from my perspective.
Risk is impossible to avoid. Everything has a cost. If you take low risk in the short term, you lose in the long-term. Always a trade off. You focus so much on not losing that it has cost you how much in the long run? Ever think about it like that?
Let me explain it like this. You think DNA is a risky investment. Okay, if everyone thought this way, how the hell will we have innovation? Are you calling the people trying to make DNA happen a bunch of gamblers? Come on, now. Not being fair.
I get what you are saying, but understand I am already doing that low risk route with most of my money. I will have two homes paid off within 8 years. I have a ton of money in a 401k. Why should I continue to avoid higher risk with my other capital?
Listen, you can’t lose with ARK right now, it’s already been beaten down….if you don’t need the money, and you can wait 5-20 years for the next bull cycle, how the hell do you lose? Please explain. Innovation is going to happen and it’s probably the easiest way to make money if you have the stomach and discipline to buy and hold when it bottoms. It’s an actively managed fund, and how do you know what companies she will be buying in the next bull run? All I know, I trust her ability to pick winners in the disruptive innovation field. She has done it over and over in her career. She just always will get slammed when the market turns into a bear market. We know this already…so why not invest in ark in anticipation for the next bull market?
https://www.morningstar.com/insights/2021/05/11/why-you-should-be-a-risk-taker
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 10:58 am
You know Pumps, I was thinking about some of the verbal diarrhea you have been spewing recently. Especially your recent take at making risky bets on the market. You seem to believe that the stock market is a means to get rich and those who do not take large risks will never do well. You do realize, this is the complete opposite of how the vast majority gains wealth through investing in equities.
I like to call you a gambler, not an investor. An investor uses time and risk aversion to their advantage. By investing regularly and over a long period of time, compounding will do the work for them. This will work for ALL of them. A guaranteed 8% return with the occasional 10 and 12 percenters to offset those couple of rare years where the market declines. If you want to weight the 21st century returns a little more, than you would probably average closer to 10 to 12 percent annual returns
Bush gave a speech yesterday where he condemned the illegal invasion of Iraq, (talk about Freudian slip) then corrected himself and said Ukraine. Are acceleration into decline started with Bush, and has continued up to today.
It’s nice that the crowd thinks it’s funny and laughs at it.
Again Pumps,
Tell me where to get into ARKK and where to get out. So far, you would have cost me my entire nest egg.
on 5/11/2001, Morningstar tells you to be a risk taker. That’s pretty grand.
On the college front, Jr will be heading to VT next year, he was on the wait list and sent an invite a day after decision day. Hated having to pay two deposit, but it was his 1st choice.
“Interesting that high growth stocks have been showing relative strength (vs. indices) over the past few days…
Weakening economy + declining long-term UST yields might become tailwinds for these long duration assets.”
“High growth companies (especially software) are somewhat insulated from the economy i.e. their revenues/cash flows are recurring.
As the economy weakens further + growth becomes scarce, these beaten down stocks might attract investment dollars given they are already down 60-90%!”
The message is what matters. Everything has a cost. If you go all in on reducing short term risk, you cost yourself in long-term performance.
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 12:34 pm
on 5/11/2001, Morningstar tells you to be a risk taker. That’s pretty grand.
Personally, I hold some of the stuff that declined heavily has a pair trade to my existing shorts. Paypal, Redfin, Shopify, Roku.
Walking what no NYC experience on your vacation? Take the F Train from Times SQ and a free bus transfer from Roosevelt ave station, it’s only $2.75 one way to LGA. Just be sure to bring a few cannisters of pepper spray for the fun and games.
Libturd,
Good post, as you know, the idiot won’t listen, but it may be of use to the less idiotic tempted to follow his path.
Sad to think that people like that, immune to reason, are hired to educate peoples’ children.
For those that enjoy Sebastian Junger, good PodCast about life, politics, human behavior…
Sebastian Junger is an award-winning author, journalist, and filmmaker. His newest book, Freedom, discusses the innate conflict between the need for community and the desire for independence. Sebastian is also the founder of Vets Town Hall, an organization that gives veterans a platform to share their stories.
https://evergreenpodcasts.com/burn-the-boats
You supposedly made millions, correct? How did you do that without risk? Even safe investments are risky…people getting massacred in bonds. So tell the idiot how you made your money with no risk.
This is the part that people like you that are risk adverse don’t get. Timing is everything. Right now, is a rare opportunity to get beaten down high growth stocks. They aren’t risky as these levels, they are f’ing life changing opportunities. Find good high growth beaten down companies and hold it till next cycle peaks.
No One says:
May 19, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Libturd,
Good post, as you know, the idiot won’t listen, but it may be of use to the less idiotic tempted to follow his path.
Sad to think that people like that, immune to reason, are hired to educate peoples’ children.
“They aren’t risky as these levels, they are f’ing life changing opportunities. ”
And you’ve bought nothing
You are nuts.
I’m 52. It wouldn’t matter much which sectors, stocks, indexes I put my savings in as long as I kept adding to them regularly. My risk was reduced through diversification. My gains achieved mainly through compounding. Not sure what you don’t get. But you certainly don’t get it.
Lib! West coast still on the table I gather. Very cool.
It’s weird as hell out here, but the weathers usually nice.
I do get it. Just imagine if you took .5%- 1% of your money…maybe 10k and bought tesla 7 years ago or maybe bitcoin. How much money would you have? You could lose 1% of your money and live to see another day. And if you win with that 1% risk, your life is forever changed. Why not? Does that 10k even matter to you right now if you lost it? You have 99% of your money in your safe strategy.
You missed out…you had the capital to risk, yet you refused to. Do you know how much money you would have right now if you took a simple risk on Tesla or Bitcoin instead of bashing it? Well, I’m not missing it for this decade. These type of disruptors always happen every decade. They are even hyped every decade, but most never take the shot. It’s all cycles. Never fails.
So remember, when the FED turns, and they start releasing liquidity; know what happens next. That loosening of liquidity is used to fuel the next generation of disruptors. Never fails. I believe the most powerful disruptors will be in biotech. Hence, my play on DNA. I think DNA is going to create a new dynamic sector with biomanufacturing….synthetic bio….aka the factories of tomorrow.
Libturd says:
May 19, 2022 at 1:56 pm
You are nuts.
I’m 52. It wouldn’t matter much which sectors, stocks, indexes I put my savings in as long as I kept adding to them regularly. My risk was reduced through diversification. My gains achieved mainly through compounding. Not sure what you don’t get. But you certainly don’t get it.
Trick,
Awesome – Catamount or Hokie?
Crypto is not going anywhere either. The tech is here to stay. You will never make the same gains as last decade, but there is still plenty of money to be made in ETH. The tech is not going away. There will be a few big winners still in crypto and I think ETH has the best shot.
Hokie
Nice. Hope Brent Pry can get that program back in shape. I know lots of proud Hokies and sad to see them fall off. ACC is pretty weak conference so VT should be able to dominate with incredible talent in VA/Tidewater area.
It sure feels like China has peaked…
“China’s Communist Party will block promotions for senior cadres whose spouses or children hold significant assets abroad, people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to insulate its top officials from the types of sanctions now being directed at Russia.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-insists-party-elites-shed-overseas-assets-eyeing-western-sanctions-on-russia-11652956787?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Looking forward to going to a game this year, I know he can’t wait. Has several cousin that currently go there so he will have someone to show him around.
I booked a cheap LGA flight and was wondering about parking. LGA looks pretty bad on the parking front, the on airport parking is expensive as is the off airport parking which also looks terrible imho, it seems even the close lots take a whole heap of time to get to/from. I can totally understand issues with the valet parking in queens. I usually take uber/lyft but it is has been much more expensive recently. Back when it was $60 or $75 each way to LGA it was a no brainer as parking for a week is at minimum $130 plus gas and tolls.
JFK is a different animal as the uber rides are much more expensive, typically $200 each way. Lib is right if you are going during rush hour take the train otherwise the long term parking at the airport is alright and not bad pricewise $20 per day. Driving will take between 1.5-2hrs, there is always some traffic on the belt, forget about the BQE, often the GWB to the triboro to grand central parkway to the van wyck is your best bet. The drive to LGA is much better than JFK but the parking and general airport at LGA is atrocious.
but but teachers are overpaid….
“Teen Babysitters Are Charging $30 an Hour Now, Because They Can
Sitter shortage has parents treating teenagers like VIPs; ‘order anything you want for dinner’”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/babysitters-teenagers-inflation-11652970427?mod=hp_featst_pos5
It’s clear as day, not many people like dealing with kids anymore. No wonder they aren’t having them at the same rate as the past.
Pumps said:
“I do get it. Just imagine if you took .5%- 1% of your money…maybe 10k and bought tesla 7 years ago or maybe bitcoin. ”
Tesla is part of the S and P 500. Right now, it’s about 1.7% of the index.
So you could get that same level of exposure to Tesla just by investing all your money in a diversified, low fee, tax efficient SandP 500 index fund.
Bloomberg Article One of the world’s frothiest housing markets turns to a sellers market quickly after a series of Canadian Central Bank rate hikes. Coming soon here as well. Like a flip of the switch as the article states.
The funny thing is. I do have a few speculative plays. I’m in Fiskar, for example. I think their Ocean is a beautiful car. I also think their novelty solar panel roof will be very attractive to those who want to show off that their green. Also, their timing to roll out to market with an inexpensive and great looking EV is looking pretty good. What I don’t like is their track record. The last car that was promised was never produced. None the less, the design and engineering team is top notch and Tesla’s look like ass.
Kiddo is all squared away for college! Now just waiting to see which dorm she gets.
Very pleased we didn’t go the insanely expensive private college route. In-state tuition !
Yea, but Tesla has a huge market cap already. It’s not the same. I’m talking hot sauce to accompany your dish and hopefully add that zing to your portfolio.
OC1 says:
May 19, 2022 at 3:01 pm
Pumps said:
“I do get it. Just imagine if you took .5%- 1% of your money…maybe 10k and bought tesla 7 years ago or maybe bitcoin. ”
Tesla is part of the S and P 500. Right now, it’s about 1.7% of the index.
So you could get that same level of exposure to Tesla just by investing all your money in a diversified, low fee, tax efficient SandP 500 index fund.
Fisker. Sorry. Fiskar’s are scissors.
Ex: Congratulations. All the best to your Daughter. I am sure she will be fine. Work and study hard, and enjoy herself as well and she will do fine. And you save a pile of money in the process.
Pumps it’s really easy for anyone to pick stocks that they should have bought 10 years ago.
I like the ocean, thing I don’t like about fisker is they will not be making there cars. The ocean will be built by magna and the pear I think by Foxconn. But I’m probably still put a deposit down on the ocean.
That GW Bush skip of the tongue was devastating. I guess he’s got a guilty conscience, if he’s got one at all. Or perhaps he’s just lost it. Shockingly he’s still three years younger than Biden. I guess enough coke and booze and your mind rots by then.
Lib you might be better off with an investment in Fiskar, quality scissors. Henrik Fisker is a good car designer but his track record as anything other than a designer is not so good. If they can deliver what they are talking about it will be huge but as of right now besides taking reservations they haven’t delivered anything.
You know pumps is still heavily exposed simply by the hysteria of his posts. If he were truly on the sideline he would be a lot less defensive. Very telling.
Besides market timing isn’t as some as it sounds for most people. You can move stuff around in a 401k but unless you’re a pro you’re going to get crossed with tax bills. He’s lying as usual.
Another investment “strategy” that blows my mind is those who have their entire 401K invested in the company they work for. WTF are they thinking? As if they’re part of a forever successful, 10% per year growth machine? No, what it tells me is that terms like “diversification” are not in the vocabulary. Imagine having most of your life savings in Enron or WorldCom?
Pumps, at what price did you start pumping TSLA, Etherium?
Since you first touted DNA, it’s down 80%. At the same time you were gambling your money away, I recommended Darling Ingredients to my investment club. Look them up. No one told me about them. I ran a screener for small and mid caps with > 15% growth but non stratospheric P/Es. Here are the notes from our meeting minutes of October 12th:
2 part company
Make diesel out of other products / renewal
Create proteins that are non-animal / synthesize
They are a green company
Growth rate of 24.5%
Has nice trajectory over the last couple of years
15.6% at highest PE
Buy price up to $80.8 and it is at $72
It is a mid-cap which is good investment for PEs staying in a good range (24%)
Up / Up / Down
We might consider investing in the company (it is unlike anything we own)
Buy!
Since then, DAR is up 10%, DNA is down 80%.
What don’t you get? I’ll keep buying the DARs. You can keep buying the DNAs.
JCer,
I know. I’m in for 2K, which is now worth 1K. :)
Juice, having done construction projects in the boroughs the last 3 years and seeing the difference -I’ll take a pass on the subway. Fortunately Im working all West of the Hudson now out to Harrisburg.
LGA port authority long term parking seemed supper expensive. There are some hotels in the area that offer parking but no shuttle. So I would be hiking 8 blocks to the airport at 5am, which I don’t mind doing. I generally drop off everyone and then walk/run to the airport . But I ‘m not sure if I can walk some of those exit ramps without causing a security stir.
I got hammered last year, how about giving some of it back. Murphy and his crooked friends are ecstatic over the windfall. I am sure their friends will be happy.🤩
https://www.nj.com/politics/2022/05/tax-relief-suddenly-at-top-of-agenda-in-nj-as-money-pours-in-like-never-before.html
Yeah, the last couple of years have been a taxation bloodbath in my household.
The gubmint always gets their pound of flesh. Heck CA has a huge tax surplus:
The state’s reserves have grown immensely since then. Even the COVID-19 pandemic had little negative impact on revenues since the incomes of wealthy taxpayers were generally unaffected. If anything, the revenue flow has accelerated, providing tens of billions of dollars in revenues beyond what’s needed to maintain current programs and services.
What to do with the extra cash is now a point of contention among the Capitol’s dominant Democrats.
Should they satisfy the demands of progressive activists who want to transform California into a European-style welfare state?
Should they be conservative by increasing reserves, reducing debt and/or making one-time commitments, such as public works projects, to minimize permanent commitments?
Or should they give at least some of the money back to taxpayers, albeit not necessarily the rich ones who provided the bounty.
Source: https://calmatters.org/commentary/2022/05/how-will-california-handle-a-huge-budget-surplus/
Speaking of getting into colleges, there’s a nice documentary about the kids in a mostly Asian public SanFrancisco high school trying to get into top colleges. It’s called “Try Harder!”
I think it’s free from PBS –
https://www.pbs.org/independentlens/documentaries/try-harder/
Might be worth watching with your kids.
There’s definitely some anti-Asian discrimination going on by the top schools.
Ex congrats on your daughter selecting a school. May she thrive and mature into an adult My daughter did the small private in the Boston area. It’s expensive, but seems to fit her well. She would not have done well in a bigger school as she is more introspective and does not like to party. That said she was surprised at the amount of pot the kids smoke non stop at the dorms. she is not into that which is great (medical issues)
Think I will move my kids to Ireland, send them to European university for free, skip the 400k it will cost in 10 years.
My kids really getting into psychology. I’m not surprised as I found it incredibly intriguing as well. Though, he’s not interested in counseling. He has a way with autistic kids like few I’ve seen. And they adore him and will do anything he asks. He’s like the whacko whistler. He got himself an internship at my younger son’s ABA center for this summer, which should look really good on his college resume. Now he just has to get his verbal score up on the SAT and he should be able to choose from nearly all but the toughest schools, which he’s not terribly interested in anyway.
I may have him convinced to go to a smaller (cheaper) school, like a Quinnipiac with the goal to transfer to a top school after his 2nd year. There are some family moving parts. He is completely attached to his brother and his brother is attached to him. So he may want to stay within 4 hour-drive or short-hop flight from home for now. We have to see how our lawsuit works out to decide where we are going.
VT is a pretty strong school. Congrats on that Trick. You too Walking. The decision process is such a pain in the ass for us because my kid just doesn’t care where he goes as long as it’s a good value. I can’t figure out where he gets that from?
Bystander: There are various fees for university in Ireland: it’s not as cheap as it was, but still cheaper than here.
3b,
Oh not, Ireland..plenty of free U’s on continent. Ireland can be home base.
The hundred mile high club??
A flight attendant for SpaceX said Elon Musk asked her to “do more” during a massage, documents show.
The billionaire founder exposed his penis to her and offered to buy her a horse, according to claims in a declaration.
After she reported the incident to SpaceX, Musk’s company paid her $250,000 as part of a severance agreement.
Lib, you have to do what is right for you. Nothing wrong with either of our approaches. That’s the truth. We are both self made. That’s the beauty of investing, no right or wrong way to do it. All that matters in the long-run is that you are making money. It seems like we both are doing that. That’s all that matters…
“Since then, DAR is up 10%, DNA is down 80%.
What don’t you get? I’ll keep buying the DARs. You can keep buying the DNAs.”
You are overthinking this. I told you the truth. Go look at my posts to start the year. Does that sound like I was making it up? Why would I? I moved the 401k to an insurance based fund that pays 2% guaranteed. It’s a place of complete safety. I don’t know what you are talking about with taxes…money still in 401k.
BidenIsTheGOAT says:
May 19, 2022 at 3:36 pm
You know pumps is still heavily exposed simply by the hysteria of his posts. If he were truly on the sideline he would be a lot less defensive. Very telling.
BidenIsTheGOAT says:
May 19, 2022 at 3:42 pm
Besides market timing isn’t as some as it sounds for most people. You can move stuff around in a 401k but unless you’re a pro you’re going to get crossed with tax bills. He’s lying as usual.
That a boy.
Whatever you are reading to form your positions. It’s working. Please continue to share your moves with the blog.
BRT says:
May 19, 2022 at 12:47 pm
Personally, I hold some of the stuff that declined heavily has a pair trade to my existing shorts. Paypal, Redfin, Shopify, Roku.
Bystander: Double check me on this , but I believe most of the Europeans universities are charging some sort of tuition or fees. One of the reasons I recall reading about was the decline in the quality of the education since it was free and so many attending university. Also too many professional students, taking classes for years.
Honestly, I don’t know how long she will be alive, but the easiest way to make money is arkk on the way up, and then on the down cycle, you ride sark down. Pretty much like taking candy from a baby.
And screw arkk…just go tark on the way up. So many tools to play the market.
Is there any move evidence needed that this is pure trolling? Please for god’s sake everyone do what’s right.
3b, bystander most universities are not “free” in Europe but is significantly less money, generally the more economically valuable the subject matter the higher the tuition. Ireland certainly is a good choice because it would be in english. If your kid wants to be an engineer I think ETH in Zurich is still free but incredibly difficult to get into. Trinity in Dublin is something like 20k euro for foreigners or 6k euro for EU students. On the continent max tuition would likely fall between 5k-10k euro again unless you can get into a very elite school(like the Normale School in Pisa) in which case it’s probably free. Still a far cry from the cost in the US, even the UK seems a bargain compared to the USA, heck even Canada looks good comparatively.
45 Days.
3b, I don’t know enough to commentate on Europe, but that being said, American Universities are not free, and the quality of their education has fallen off the side of a cliff. It’s embarrassing. When I was still in school, I would post about what I saw in real time at the university level here…and it’s gotten so much worse.
Just Gossip!
https://twitter.com/duty2warn/status/1527341365142573064
The terms of Elon Musk’s margin loan are if Tesla’s stock falls below $740, Musk must provide more collateral.
It’s at 709.
As a result, he’s frantically selling a a big chunk of his 47% of SpaceX valued at 55 billion.
BRT: I understand. And yes, American universities are not free, and the quality has declined dramatically. Even many of the so called better universities from I have been told, have remedial courses for some of their incoming students. Subject matter that should have been taught already. My point in stating European universities were free almost free was to note those in this country who advocate free college may want to rethink their position, as in you get or in this case you don’t get what you don’t pay for.
This will always be my favorite measure of time.
Jeff Tiedrich @itsJeffTiedrich
Elon’s “purchase” of Twitter didn’t even last two Scaramuccis
Just Gossip.
BrooklynDad_Defiant! @mmpadellan
JUST IN: A source close to Hunter Biden confirmed that the grand jury case against him is not proceeding well for the prosecution and is limited to taxes.
The laptop story is dead.
THEY. HAVE. NOTHING.
Some guy from Harris Investments says after the Fed raises rates again in June, then he will pivot on rates. He sees the market hurting, and recession/ stagflation, so he will pivot. Another clueless individual who thinks this will all be over in a flash.
Future college:
“Volunteering” How important is that on an application? Is your child better off going to camp or doing some other sort of activity vs volunteering.
What looks better to colleges?
Hunter Biden could have kiddie p0rn(oh wait he did?), and he still won’t go to prison. It’s called a pardon. That’s why the big guy ran for president, to cover up their crimes.
Only a fool would think they would be held to account. Same with the fools salivating over the latest trump investigation tweet. NOTHING will happen.
The only measure of justice from any of that will be the disclosure. We can see exactly how the Bidens and the political class sold us out one again.
Fab – Delaware Grand Jury? The jury pool ain’t big enough to escape the influence of the local cabal there. They are not going to indict or convict one of their own, might as well be the Senator Menendez trial.
There is still billions of dollars of Chinese money sitting in Bohai Harvest RST (BHR). This company setup by Chinese owned banks gave Hunter and his now felon friend Devon Archer 1o% ownership I believe they were on the board too. Hunter left the board right before the election campaign but Hunter refuses to divest his ownership. I gather he is waiting to cash on once his friends and family in Delaware refuse to indict him.
Who owns and fund this company? State-controlled Bank of China, and the China Development Bank along with Hunter and a few others. Emails located on a copy of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop show that he was told on multiple occasions by his business partner Eric Schwerin that he could expect to receive significant payments from BHR beginning in 2019. The money has not arrived yet. I gather they are waiting for this whole thing to blow over.
https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/1065971D:CH
Where do you think WFH is coming from? It’s slow downhill slope for America’s work ethic. It’s sad. Very few people want to work hard these days. Instead, they want to be passed doing the bare minimum and paid top dollar to do the bare minimum.
The obnoxious posts slamming managers on facebook WFH articles says it all. It’s always 2o somethings with purple hair or some other weird color hair crying about how they don’t need to go to work…it can be done from home. What f’ing losers. Most of them are fat too….no wonder they love remote….who the f/k would hire them in person with purple hair and 100 lbs overweight. What a joke.
BRT says:
May 19, 2022 at 10:13 pm
3b, I don’t know enough to commentate on Europe, but that being said, American Universities are not free, and the quality of their education has fallen off the side of a cliff. It’s embarrassing. When I was still in school, I would post about what I saw in real time at the university level here…and it’s gotten so much worse.
What’s scary…how many others are doing this. Only reason we know about this is because of the walking disaster that is Hunter Biden.
Juice Box says:
May 20, 2022 at 8:38 am
There is still billions of dollars of Chinese money sitting in Bohai Harvest RST (BHR). This company setup by Chinese owned banks gave Hunter and his now felon friend Devon Archer 1o% ownership I believe they were on the board too.
Joyce said it yesterday and I utter it every time I see a post. When are you guys going to realize that you’re being trolled?
Pumps – re: how many others?
The world is full of grifters in suits…
Anyway nothing to see…Ukrainian Gas Company Board of directors, Chinese Investment Fund board of directors. Several Delaware LLCs to receive and funnel the money. Morgan Stanley account to shift it around again into another Trust etc.
A NY Times Reporter published a statement from they obtained from Morgan Stanley for Hunter’s company…Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6003585-Rosemont-Seneca-Bohai-Bank-Records-Listing
Address is 152 W 57th St Manhattan….
FUN FACT Guess what else is there? The iconic restaurant the Russian Tea Room. It’s been there for 100 years.
I don’t troll, just try to get conversations going. Simple as that.
Go look at the comment section on facebook articles based on WFH and see what I’m talking about. A lot of weird people crying about how they don’t need a manager and can do their work from home. They accuse the managers of being dinosaurs for not being in touch with what they want. These people are scary if they are the future of America.
Fast Eddie says:
May 20, 2022 at 8:53 am
Joyce said it yesterday and I utter it every time I see a post. When are you guys going to realize that you’re being trolled?
Can’t make this stuff up…
“Address is 152 W 57th St Manhattan….
FUN FACT Guess what else is there? The iconic restaurant the Russian Tea Room. It’s been there for 100 years.”
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 8:42 am
It’s sad. Very few people want to work hard these days. Instead, they want to be passed doing the bare minimum and paid top dollar to do the bare minimum.
That is the perfect description for our resident troll, teaching in Wayne, We pay him to constantly post on this blog, when he is supposed to be teaching.
I am sure he was describing himself.
Bears . . .
This sell-off has not felt like capitulation and margin call liquidation, yet. The masses haven’t been beaten down and have not given up hope.
Peak SP500 is 4818.62. To hit 20% off, the SP500 needs to break 3,854.89.
We got as low as 3858, so the SP500 was 19.91% off its ATH.
Is anyone seeing a peak-to-trough here of -60% nominal, like the 2008 GFC cycle? Is anyone calling a larger decline? If so, why?
Jimbo, I do my job above and beyond. That’s why I still have it. Not many people last 17 years in the ghetto. Next year will be year 18. I’m hardworking…I’m Polish, it’s in my blood. It’s in our nature. We don’t know how to not work hard.
BTW, I wish I was teaching in Wayne, but I am where I am needed.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 9:38 am
Jimbo, I do my job above and beyond. That’s why I still have it.
Does your job require posting on this blog all day? When the hell do you teach?? The ONLY reason you have kept your job so long is spelt NJEA. You would not make it in the real world….sorry. Tell us again how Grammy gave (sold) you a multi, love a good story!
Honestly, think it’s different now. Back in the day, the masses has no where to go to get information on what is happening in the market. Only if you worked on wall st, would you have access to what it is going on. Everyone else would read WSJ and be late to the game. So when a sell off happened, it was severe, as retail straight up panicked. Think now, it’s much harder to do. You also have all these algos playing the game.
IMHO, comparing past bear markets in the 1900s to today is useless. It’s like using the 1800s during the 1900s to compare busts….just not the same era. You just have to use the recent corrections to try and draw any conclusions.
Remember, 2008 would have been a depression in the 1900s. Same thing with 2020. It’s different this time.
crushednjmillenial says:
May 20, 2022 at 9:34 am
Bears . . .
This sell-off has not felt like capitulation and margin call liquidation, yet. The masses haven’t been beaten down and have not given up hope.
Thanks 3b/JCer. Mostly being sarcastic as my son is 7 but will look at it more closely in next 6 years. Who knows where we will be? The problem I see is that sports are now determining every decision. Anyone remember the old GE HQ in Fairfield? Sacred Hearts owns it now as tech cneter and now building new hockey arena, on top of new quad, new student center, taking over decaying community theatre, taking over failing kids discovery museum etc, etc, etc..it is mind-blowing.
Stick to what you know, jimbo. Otherwise, you will be playing yourself.
Jim says:
May 20, 2022 at 9:47 am
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 9:38 am
Jimbo, I do my job above and beyond. That’s why I still have it.
Does your job require posting on this blog all day? When the hell do you teach?? The ONLY reason you have kept your job so long is spelt NJEA. You would not make it in the real world….sorry. Tell us again how Grammy gave (sold) you a multi, love a good story
Big office building in downtown Minneapolis converted to apartments, a lot in DC. According to the article blue print for other cities to convert office space no longer needed with WFH/ Hybrid not firmly part of the landscape.
In other news Realtor reports largest increase in listings since March of 2019. So much for the over hyped inventory shortage.
Next shock for homeowners as per CBS news big property tax assessments. Assess high now on the way down.
I think it’s time that we stop busting teacher’s balls for having summers off now that most people work 4 days a week. Roads are absolutely empty on the friday morning commute. By afternoon, filled. So don’t tell me these people are working all day at home on fridays. Basically, working a four day work week.
Get ready to take it up the butt again. When housing prices get out of control, the property tax assessments get out of whack. Mainly, this is due to bidding wars in the lower end that raise prices above where they belong. On the higher end, prices don’t move as much. So towns need to reassess to balance the playing field and they always seem to do it at the top of bubbles, which means the big houses pay less and the smaller houses pay more. It’s a great system we have in place here in NJ. Of course, if your house is really large, you put a couple of alpacas in a shed and make believe your aunt bought $500 of fur from you. Then you officially live on a farm and are taxed liked it.
Lib: I remember a couple of past down turns same thing reassess at the height , right on the way down! In other news news, Verizon fees going up like 3.00 some surcharge increase, a dollar here, a dollar there, it all adds up!
“I worked for a company that embraced remote, distributed work long before COVID.
WFH doesn’t automatically lead to outsourcing, but it does move it a lot closer. Once the company dynamic has shifted to all communications and interactions being online, it’s very easy to add someone from a different country as long as the time zones aren’t too far apart and the logistics of employing and paying them aren’t too onerous for HR.
The company I worked for eventually did ramp up foreign hiring and perform layoffs in the US. It was just too to hard to ignore the fact that they could hire 2-3 engineers in foreign countries for the same price as a single engineer in the US in many cases. Or, as they discovered, they could pay 75% of US engineer wages and still be giving someone in a foreign country top-1% compensation for their country. This made for ecstatic, hardworking, loyal foreign employees. It’s hard to ignore situations where you’re paying less and getting more.
It didn’t mean that everyone in the US was laid off, though. Certain talents and specialties were still easier to find here than in foreign countries.
However, I think a lot of people are in denial about how much remote work is setting the stage for a flattening of global engineering compensation. Engineers in lower comp areas will see their salaries rise as they get access to more opportunities. Engineers in higher compensation areas are going to see downward pressure on salaries as they compete on a global stage. The exception will continue to be engineers with the most in-demand skills, who were likely already competing on a global stage.”
“> The thing I never understood about this argument is that it seems to imply that working from the office makes one immune to the same outsourcing.
They key is the lack of friction. If all the employees are in the office, your one remote outsourced person is the outlier and teams will get annoyed having to deal with that person. If everyone is already remote, then there’s no pushback at all from having another remote person — and if they’re already remote, why not hire from somewhere cheaper?”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31306507
Inevitable if people continue to demand remote work.
“However, I think a lot of people are in denial about how much remote work is setting the stage for a flattening of global engineering compensation.”
Can you say f/ed?
“Basically, the org structure ,communication and culture to run remote teams effectively are very different. This is why most traditional companies fail to outsource successfully. However, once the company has setup a smooth process and culture for running remote teams, outsourcing becomes quite achievable. If they can select and hire 1 in a million talented dev from the global talent pool to replace a slightly above average American dev, while only paying half the salary, I think they will certainly move towards that direction.”
“This is exactly my experience and I work at a very known tech company. As a manager I was told I can hire more people outside the US and was recommended to only hire in the US if I find someone who we really don’t want to pass on. In other words, top talent would be OK, everyone else would have problems.
I actually don’t call it outsourcing as people think about outsourcing as a way to get cheap labor in places like India or Eastern Europe. What I see happening is that companies are not looking for cheap labor. They are looking for talent and are not lowering the bar. They just prefer locations where they can afford that talent.”
Say bye to your job unless you are a top level talent. You are simply setting up the process for your company to replace you….Good luck, people. You demanded this.
Phoenix,
I’ve been doing a ton of research around the college hunt. I’m the youngest of seven siblings so I’ve watched a lot of nieces and nephews go through the process. Everyone planning to attend college will have similar credentials. So you need to make your child stand out. Especially if they are Asian or Caucasian (sadly, but the pendulum has swung a little too far these woke days). Since every kid has their service hours, is a member of the NHS, Key Club and five other extra-curricular activities, what your kid needs to do is have their transcript, essays, and course selections tell a story. It is extremely helpful if your child has chosen a discipline since half of the kids that go to college go undecided. Admissions prefer the student have a direction in mind. They also like to see examples of leadership and self-initiative. So try to get your kid to volunteer on their own for something unique that not every other kid in the school is doing. Have them run their own turkey drive for the needy at thanksgiving for example. Or better yet, start some kind of recycling campaign that the town adopts. These are the types of things that separate your child from the herd.
For example, my son found an internship this Summer. He will spend ten weeks this Summer learning the principles of ABA and will probably obtain his RBT certification. Especially if he chooses to do this again next Summer too. My son has also been a hockey referee since age 12 and is now a level 3 of 4 Official. He is a little self-conscious so it’s probably his only leadership skill. But to help his “story” he has been a shadow for kids on the spectrum the last two Summers as well as a bus counselor (more leadership). He has also been helping autistic kids learn to skate and play hockey nearly every Saturday in season for four years as well as has done some private lessons with autistic kids. And then of course, there’s his brain-damaged brother who presents autistic. So he has a pretty strong story as someone who wants to pursue something dealing with autism. Be it a therapist, researcher, etc. It will definitely fall into the field of psychology or communications or perhaps both. And his course load reflects it with AP Psychology and a few other related classes. He’s also in AP Spanish, so technically, bilingual to some extent. Another great skill to have in this field. So it all ties together quite neatly. If your kid wants to pursue science, then she should not be taking economics and political science courses. Remember the “story.” When it’s time to write essays for applications, they usually will provide you with three ideas to write about, or you can choose your own, but it must be focused. Again, you can tie this essay into the story.
As to where your kid should attend. If your kid is not valedictorian or very close, forget the most challenging schools. Your kid will probably hate it any way. There is tons of money out there at small and medium sized private schools if your kid is a performer. And all of these schools have transfer programs into the best universities in the country. It is infinitely easier to transfer into a limited acceptance rate school than it is as a Frosh. And you’ll save tens of thousands going this route. Admissions at tough schools are looking for the kids who are destined to stay four years. If you pulled straight A’s at another college, you are already a proven performer. You are also up against a tiny pool of other applicants at this point.
The other thing that matters is if your kid is a go-getter or a status quo type of student. If they are a “gamer,” then they will benefit from going to schools with a lot of connections to the private sector. Most schools do a great job of preparing students for more academia. Schools with connections to industry and corporations do a much better job preparing kids for the workplace. If your kid works hard, but is the silent type, then they are probably better off at a cheaper school as they won’t benefit from the connections.
If you have questions, call me. I’ve put countless hours into this. Also, drill into your child’s head that those College ranking lists are all gamed. What matters is post college job placement and at what salary. You would be surprised at how many inexpensive colleges have amazing reputations in their locales.
With that said, if your kid can get into Rutgers, especially the honors program. You will find a hard time finding a better return on investment. Though Rutgers is not right for everyone, their degrees are highly respected in the business world. It’s where 80% of my nieces and nephews ended up going, even though they could have gotten into much more lower acceptance schools. The difference in tuition just wasn’t worth it to them.
A suspect is in custody after two people were killed and eight others wounded in a mass shooting in downtown Chicago late Thursday night.
I suspect this doesn’t fit the democrat narrative; therefore, the O’Biden’s will not visit and “Doctor” Jill O’Biden will not be sending flowers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/2-killed-8-wounded-mass-104900925.html
46 Days, it can be done! You all will feel better.
“BTW, on airline ticket pricing. I’ve recently noticed that prices are dropping incredibly (to sell all of the premium economy seats) about a week to three days before flying. I may do some West Coast college visits with my son this way.”
Heading out to see my eldest, bringing a sibling. Second tier city with regional direct from EWR. Fare like clockwork nearly always at $288 outside of holidays, etc….three months before early June takeoff UAL wants 850….looked at the seating chart, wide open, decided to play chicken, kept monitoring…finally bought this week, two weeks before departure, 460…
Still stupid high relatively but 850? GTFO….
3b,
Keep ignoring the fact that you are advocating for helping set up the system that will eliminate high paying white collar jobs in America. Your kids will be saying the same thing….46 days without a job since it was outsourced.
WFH doesn’t automatically lead to outsourcing, but it does move it a lot closer.
Not only is this entirely wrong, it’s entirely backwards.
Companies that have successfully transitioned work types to at home models, tend to keep that work captive. Work at home provides access to a larger pool of talent, provides labor flexibility to ramp up or down, and provides the ability to easily scale beyond the local real estate footprint. In fact, most domestic companies who have shifted work to at home models, would probably be shocked to find that outsourced models are actually more expensive, not less.
Companies that have mastered this will typically have very good management and operations models, meaning they are doing they work very efficiently. Given market wage is 40-50% of the cost of outsourced service, all you need to do is add margin and overhead to the labor price, and you’ll realize there isn’t a lot to be able to save.
The value prop of many outsourcers is the reduction in the overhead costs of doing the work, not necessarily the labor costs. In addition, most outsourcers bring process management efficiency. If that already exists, the cost savings gap shrinks even further.
Put another way, WFH allows companies access to the same domestic labor market wage arbitrage that you would typically need to either outsource, or make huge capex investments in a new facility, to be able to access. If you’ve already jettisoned big expensive real estate footprints, realize that you’ve already accessed a big part of the outsourcing benefit.
Leftwing,
Look again about four days before, especially if there are a lot of empty seats. They are fire-saleing them. If you want to play Captain Cheapo games. Most airlines allow you to cancel tickets within 24 hours of booking them. So if the price stays the same or goes down each day, cancel and rebook. Some airlines have gotten smart (United did) so you may need to clear your cookies or check prices from a different IP (I use my VPN) each day. It’s mind boggling how smart their algorithms and programs have become.
In terms of IT/Tech outsourcing, that ship sailed long before we even knew what Covid was. Trying to conflate that with WFH is disingenuous.
Grim,
I only see this driving down wages. All WFH is doing is drastically increasing the amount of workers you have to compete against for the same job. Econ 101- it’s inevitable when times get bad, you are going to have a ton of people without a job to help drive down the cost of said job.
Anyone thinking this is going to help workers in a high cost country like America is insane or just not thinking about the consequences down the road.
3b,
In your honor, but mostly for Ed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6KePIWKoRk&t=98s
Remember that important point….WFH is currently being rolled out in the hottest labor market in 70 years. What happens when that market turns cold. Going to be ugly…and downright scary.
To put this in context.
If you are paying someone to do X in NY at $25.00 an hour.
To outsource that domestically in the US, you will need to pay $45-50 for that exact same hour of work, and it will not be delivered in NY for that price.
In order to hit that $45-50 per hour price, an outsourcer will need to move to a tier 2 or tier 3 area, likely paying $16 an hour.
These are real numbers anyone might expect today.
Putting this into context – that same company can just hire someone remotely in that same area, and probably be able to afford to pay $17 or $18 an hour, and get a higher quality candidate.
Increasing WfH is a headwind for outsourcing.
It’s $50 to $100 per square foot of rented commercial office space in NYC. When I had an office, it was in Midtown and was probably 125 square feet. So figure $12,500 just for my space. Then there is the added costs of having to have multiple facilities/maintenance people, networking/internet costs, security, badges, bagels. The list is endless. When I last worked in Midtown, we probably had twenty offices and a total of 500 employees. The cubicle employee took up 75 square feet. So back of the envelope math says my company saves 4 million per year on the real estate cost savings from going to WFH. Now that’s a spicy WFH meatball!
That’s 4 million dollars that can be used to increase employee’s compensation. Hardly see this driving outsourcing.
That’s 8K per person. And as someone who has been outsourcing tons of work to India starting about 15 years ago, there is a tremendous tangible and non-tangible cost in dealing with the language barrier. Especially if you’ve outsourced any client-facing activity.
Flattening wages domestically as result of companies taking greater advantage of wage arbitrage is a completely different economic consideration. I’m not arguing that’s not a real thing, and this is exactly what we would expect to happen. Average wages in the lower-wage locations would be expected to increase for a comparable skill.
Again, this trend existed far before COVID and the resultant WFH shift (ask any company that left NJ for NC).
WFH will be the end of outsourcing companies. They no longer need them with the remote platform up and running, making it easy to hire anywhere.
“To outsource that domestically in the US, you will need to pay $45-50 for that exact same hour of work, and it will not be delivered in NY for that price.”
This is exactly true, you’ll see the low end of the outsourcing market hurt by this, and you’ll see continued consolidation of the big players, as the only counterbalance to this are increasing economics of scale.
The company I left last year is now 165,000 employees globally. I hear they are merging again that will bring that number closer to 300,000 employees globally. The place I’m at now is 65,000, and we expect to be north of 100,000 in the next 2-3 years, probably double that given the right acquisitions.
Bystander,
Thank you! :) Love old school jams! He’s using a semi-hollow body, wide humbuckers though I don’t know the guitar manufacturer. What’s interesting is that it looks like a Mesa Boogie head behind him which I have and I can clearly see the EQ set up. :) He’s ripping up a B minor pentatonic scale. Every time I get in the car, it’s becoming one of my “go to” stations.
Blumpy, you are an infant looking at shiny, set of keys while some of us have been driving this car a long time. Just shut up.
Ed,
Trey plays custom hollow-body.
http://www.languedocguitars.com/
Bystander,
Yup, figured as such. I tried to “still” the video and see what he was using and then I realized it’s probably a custom ax. The dude can jam!
Many companies already outsourced labor into remote offices where they never interacted with a single employee. Many companies are global in nature where teams are across 2-3 locations to balance tier1/tier2/tier3. Good luck having a full team somewhere in east asia for your trader in new york. If the business is in new york, you need some staff in the area to support that.
It breaks my heart. I’ll be fine, but what about our kids. We already had it more difficult than our parents generation, and now what will happen to our kids?
Grim, you have been saying it for a long time, but it is so true….standard of living is going down….slow and steadily we will be on par with these other countries given enough time.
The question I ask…how can we be so ignorant to beg for the platform that will single handily make future american’s lives much more difficult? God, people only live in the now…took the low hanging fruit of setting up the process to WFH for their companies and now have doomed their kids from getting high paying jobs that once could only be done in America. Pathetic.
grim says:
May 20, 2022 at 11:43 am
This is exactly true, you’ll see the low end of the outsourcing market hurt by this, and you’ll see continued consolidation of the big players, as the only counterbalance to this are increasing economics of scale.
The company I left last year is now 165,000 employees globally. I hear they are merging again that will bring that number closer to 300,000 employees globally. The place I’m at now is 65,000, and we expect to be north of 100,000 in the next 2-3 years, probably double that given the right acquisitions.
Paul Languedoc’s guitars are priced between $7,500 and $10,000. Alrighty, then. lol.
Just did a search. I was not familiar with them. I bought a D’Angelico acoustic guitar a few months ago, the first guitar I bought in 15 years.
This one –> https://dangelicoguitars.com/guitars/premier-series/premier-gramercy/#DAPG200VNATAPS-7
I tore ligaments on the inside of my right elbow about 12 years ago and was able to play with no problems for the longest time, up until a few years ago and then my right arm fatigued after 30 seconds of playing as the injury finally caught up with me. Too late for surgery now. I was so disgusted, I didn’t touch the guitar for almost two years. And then, I started slowly trying to work it back in, playing slowly, trying to re-train myself. I can play lead with almost no problem now, scales and shit. Strumming chords and faster alternate picking is still somewhat difficult but at least I can satisfy my urge to play.
Asia? They will be taking advantage of central and south america. No time zone issues.
Mike S says:
May 20, 2022 at 11:57 am
Many companies already outsourced labor into remote offices where they never interacted with a single employee. Many companies are global in nature where teams are across 2-3 locations to balance tier1/tier2/tier3. Good luck having a full team somewhere in east asia for your trader in new york. If the business is in new york, you need some staff in the area to support that.
Bystander: Was not familiar with Phish. Going to start listening more after you and others here recommendations.
LIb, you are better than this…savings being used to increase employee’s compensation? Good luck with that.
Libturd says:
May 20, 2022 at 11:33 am
That’s 4 million dollars that can be used to increase employee’s compensation. Hardly see this driving outsourcing.
Lib; My Brothers law firm dumped a big chunk of their real estate foot print, and there will be many more companies going forward. NYC as I have been saying for the last couple of years needs to reinvent themselves. Of course they have to get crime under control first. Some landlords are trying trying to entice people back with all sorts of amenities , and some companies too, gyms and organic cafes, and Yoga / meditation rooms, and even happy hours. So get people back to hang out at work, and not actually work, but hey they are in the office.
Many people don’t want that, they want flexibility and quality of life, not doing 1.5 to 2 hour commutes each day. Those with children even more so. It’s a new world , and commercial landlords are no longer in the driver seat.
Don’t worry, they will have plenty of time for their family as most of them will have bs service jobs to take care of the upper class.
3b, for god’s sake, think. If you have a remote platform in place, and your company is hurting, why in the world are you going to pay higher wages when you could easily save 75% in labor costs? You don’t think every business is not going to be forced to take advantage of this….we saw this happen already with blue collar manufacturing.
I just don’t understand how you don’t see this coming. How do you cheer this chit on?
“Many people don’t want that, they want flexibility and quality of life, not doing 1.5 to 2 hour commutes each day. Those with children even more so. It’s a new world , and commercial landlords are no longer in the driver seat.”
Pumpkin said something like “standard of living is going down.”
I disagree with this sentiment as much as possible.
-transportation – cars keep getting incrementally safer; before covid, flying to europe could cost like $300 round-trip, lol
-on food, globally, the proportion of people who are food insecure, trendline = downward
-there are medications coming off patent today and will be available as inexpensive generics soon that didn’t exist 25 years ago
-education = essentially free on youtube (credentialing and relative prestige, ok, that part is the problem)
-clothing – can be so cheap it’s basically disposable – order a 100-pack of t-shirts for $2/shirt; (again, and as with everything, if you’re playing the relative prestige game, then . . .)
-housing – the innovation of the 5-over-1 in housing presents the USA with the opportunity to structurally reduce housing costs (looking forward, pre-fab and materials science improvements are promising)
-entertainment – lol, anybody in say the top 50% of the world has access to billions of songs in his pocket. Richest king in Medieval Europe = what, 500 songs from his court entertainment?
The “decline” is all in relative comparison to others, prestige-related, subjective or fringe cases. In objective terms, humankind’s well-being increases over time.
Must be movie day in Paterson schools, my wife wouldn’t have 2 seconds to post on a blog while teaching. Will not even respond to a txt until the day is over.
Crushed,
Get real, I was talking about America. If you can’t see it, I can’t help you. Not even wasting my time explaining why.
12:15 . . .
Whether someone “cheers it on” or not, doesn’t change what may or may not happen.
You’re too wrapped up in WFH and drawing projections from this trend that will not manifest the way you think they will. The US economy has for 225 years evolved in a way that brings greater prosperity.
There might be a structural shift to the market for human labor, but that doesn’t necesarily mean millions of broke, lost Americans. It probably means a reduction in hours, more trade protectionism, UBI, or dozens of other changes to the system that may come to pass.
Come teach in the ghetto. Do it!
Movie day? lmao. I’m not allowed to show movies, this is not 1990. Btw, I teach high school.
Again, you guys know nothing about teaching today. You don’t sit in front of the class and lecture all period while they take notes. Now leave me alone.
Trick says:
May 20, 2022 at 12:19 pm
Must be movie day in Paterson schools, my wife wouldn’t have 2 seconds to post on a blog while teaching. Will not even respond to a txt until the day is over.
12:20 . . .
When you’re 80 years old, you will likely be taking a medication that will extend your life by years which doesn’t exist yet. Sure, decline in living standards.
Tell me how America today is better for the avg individual than before we shipped off all the manufacturing jobs.
“You’re too wrapped up in WFH and drawing projections from this trend that will not manifest the way you think they will. The US economy has for 225 years evolved in a way that brings greater prosperity.”
SP500 enters bear . . .
Today, the SP500 fell to 20.2% off its ATH. First bear market since the short-lived Covid Bear. Lots of resisance at that 20% line for the last few days. Will be interesting to see where we go from here.
12:26 . . . ok, then vote for Trump next time in 2024. He agrees with you on that point.
Lib: Some companies already passing wage increases on to employees, with real estate cost savings.
Call me the Ross Perot of 2022. Trying to warn anyone that will listen, but unfortunately, they didn’t listen to him and the same fate awaits me. WFH=giant sucking sound for American jobs.
You guys laugh at me, like Bill Clinton and Bush laughed at him in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRr60nmDyu4
crushednjmillenial says:
May 20, 2022 at 12:28 pm
12:26 . . . ok, then vote for Trump next time in 2024. He agrees with you on that point.
Think about what he is saying in that video. The same thing applies now. How does an American worker compete with a much cheaper worker in another nation? How? Going to be a massacre….giant sucking sound.
Best jobs of the future will not be white collar. They will be construction, plumbers, electricians, sales, and entertainers. Only good jobs left when this flush of white collar jobs takes place.
Friday Sell Off.
When should I be buying Pumps?
crushed,
Snicker..sure, every president “believes in it” except corp America does not want it. Again, how is eight wonder FoxConn doing in WI? Intel moving to Ohio. I guess Joe believes in it too since he can claim that accomplishment, right?
” can be so cheap it’s basically disposable – order a 100-pack of t-shirts for $2/shirt”
Hah, reminds of this clip from Big Bang. God I miss those early year Sheldon moments. Too funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iDlMniZ_lw
Lib, check this. Again, ark type high growth was the canary in the coal mine. They prob don’t have much to fall, or even bottomed, but the rest of the market…f’ed. So if you are going to buy, you would be smart to stick to high growth beaten down stocks like BRT mentioned yesterday. BRT is reading some good info, his sources have helped him make some great moves.
“A Wall Street Journal article points out that 8 megatechs are responsible for 50% of this years S&P decline. Why? By market cap, they represent over 25% of index. Also, rest of stocks began rolling over beginning in Feb 2021, but because the mega caps led total index to new high through 2021, few noticed. Hence they were most overvalued relative to rest of market, people were sitting on big profits, they will continue to be in distribution (more potential sellers than buyers) dragging the index down further – perhaps slowly but certainly.”
“Berkshire Hathaway is within about $1 for losing all of its gains this year. Very close to prices of May 2021. They shoot the Generals last.”
Even a shit phone has more computing power that the entire Apollo 11. You can view a map in your hand of streets from your parent’s home town. You can even receive street level views.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 12:26 pm
Tell me how America today is better for the avg individual than before we shipped off all the manufacturing jobs.
“You’re too wrapped up in WFH and drawing projections from this trend that will not manifest the way you think they will. The US economy has for 225 years evolved in a way that brings greater prosperity.”
I wish you were the canary in the coalmine. Mortal implications intended……
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 12:53 pm
Lib, check this. Again, ark type high growth was the canary in the coal mine.
Trick,
Must be movie day in Paterson schools, my wife wouldn’t have 2 seconds to post on a blog while teaching. Will not even respond to a txt until the day is over.
It’s not a teacher. It’s a troll with a lot of time to do nothing but post digital trash.
Chi,
You know what I’m talking about. I’m talking about family finances. Why is there almost no middle class left?
FYI, aside I’m not holding the stuff long term. It’s just a pair trade in the event that the broad markets go up. If things go the way I believe, they’ll still move down (but not as much as indexes and things that haven’t gone down to or below their 2020 baseline. If I closed my shorts, I close those positions.
Sorry I have backed off my US Ten year blow by blow commentary. To be clear, I am just trying to offer a rule of thumb. As with most rules of thumb, it oversimplifies something quite complex. In this case we have seen in the last two weeks a flight to quality. In plain English, the spread in yield between The Ten and everything else is widening. So even as we have seen The Ten back off to 280-area, mortgage rates have barely moved. The ignorant and provocative will scream graft, but that is specious. Spreads are widening. They have yet to blow out……
As a frame of reference, with the rampant underpricing of risk for the last decade, spreads are below historical norms. People shouldn’t complain as we mean revert.
FWIW – I am still seeing premium calls and tenders for corporate debt. That says something. Corporate boards are managing their capital structure. They are still signaling that they see future cost of capital higher. Leftwing & 3b would know how the bankers dial for dollars with their pitch decks. If you work at a Corporate Treasury in the days before caller ID, the time to stop answering your phone is about 2:30PM-ish until you leave of Fridays.
Inflation had to peak already…all deflationary now.
“Email I got from a USA trucking industry VP; “With China shutting down there is little freight coming into the country. No supply. Thus the truckload rates have dropped significantly. Very little work for drivers. Also, add on sky high fuel. So most all signs point to gloom”.”
Grim,
Some Nostradumbass Index Charts are in Mod. When you get a chance, if you may.
If you want to backup your claims – post all your buys and sells here. I bought $VOO @ 351.89 – and will keep buying every 5% down
Also picked up $INTC for the 3.5% dividend
Prepare for Fed to start their stealth equity purchase. This downward aggression will not stand, man.
Lib,
Thank you. Some great ideas there. My kid had some of her own-seems the two of you align quite well.
Pumps:
Well, life expectancy is down a bit. Covid had something to do with it. Suicide, murder and increased crime will probably add a bit to that statistic.
4 days a week working? What does that have to do with teachers having summers off?
40 hrs is 40 hrs- if you do 10 a day vs 8 per day what is the difference? Anyway that is better for traffic and fuel use. It’s not a “gift” however. Yet some employers claim it’s “special” and take away a lunch break for that “privilege.”
Standard of living- America has an overall good one, but where it ranks low is in happiness-and that is what everyone wants here, right?? And a “standard of living” really only matters to the person living it anyway. You could live in a country with the best standard of living yet have a major disability. You aren’t going to ever get to enjoy it.
And technology, it’s a double edged sword. Like everything else, it can be used for good or for evil, and with humans being both, expect both. Had a discussion at work and one of the physicians said he believes that it’s the disinformation, the facts that we know so much about everyone else, that we can spread rumors either lies or truthfully at the push of a button causes everyone to hate each other. Makes sense.
Like everything else, it’s a trade off. The youth will have to learn to adjust to what the adults have created as there is no turning back now.
Feels like yesterday was being told reductions in supply caused inflation but now the opposite. Not surprising.
That’s not what the moron is saying. He says people do not work while at home. His tiny brain can’t comprehend.
Phoenix says:
May 20, 2022 at 1:20 pm
4 days a week working? What does that have to do with teachers having summers off?
40 hrs is 40 hrs- if you do 10 a day vs 8 per day what is the difference? Anyway that is better for traffic and fuel use. It’s not a “gift” however. Yet some employers claim it’s “special” and take away a lunch break for that “privilege.”
By the way, I will most likely be adding 10% of my position back at the close today to be 60 stable/40 long from my current 70/30. Though I can easily see and expect the drop to continue a while longer, I must protect my gain against the benchmarks that I have achieved so far. When the market turns, it turns on a dime. And like Bystander said, we could turn Japanese this weekend.
They work…but they complete what they have to do in 3-4 hours while getting paid for 8. I’m not talking about overachievers who end up working 10-12 hrs on WFH platform. I am talking about the avg worker.
To be fair, they didn’t work 8 hrs in the office either. WFH just lets them not have to fake it.
PumpkinFace says:
May 20, 2022 at 1:25 pm
That’s not what the moron is saying. He says people do not work while at home. His tiny brain can’t comprehend.
Since Grim is busy,
Here is a chart I drew up in February. You can clearly see how 7K is a possibility on the Nasty. What do I know?
https://photos.app.goo.gl/uHCPzhcJWWH87Qiv9
I will do the same. Right now, I’m still not buying. I still think it’s a good time to buy ark type stocks, but the gambler in me will wait some more. Same with 401k…will post when I buy back in. Still waiting on that.
Only stock position I have right now is DNA. Also have small 5k position in ETH that is staked (collecting 3.675%..was 4.8% at one point). Bought at $2550.
Mike S says:
May 20, 2022 at 1:13 pm
If you want to backup your claims – post all your buys and sells here. I bought $VOO @ 351.89 – and will keep buying every 5% down
“Forget index volatility. The 10%+ drop in Deere today shows how absolutely F’d up this mkt is. Criticized for being “too optimistic in it’s guidance. It has been outperforming the market, so is a poster child for stocks people are hiding in. One slip, and they get slammed; face it no place is safe, no one has much of a clue about company or economic fundamentals so now it’s whack a mole. It’s all about tactics now not LT strategy. If you have a long time horizon, and own “real cos” who have futures, stop torturing yourself by watching this mess.”
De Blasio plans run for Congress in NY. Stunning lack of self awareness. Never had a real job, becomes NYC mayor, does a horrific job, takes a detour as the arrogant pr@ck thinks he is qualified to be President, gets his ass handed to him. But is he done, no considers run for Governor so he can do the NY what he did to NYC, only to decide against it. But don’t despair, he is running for Congress in NY now. How do these morons do it!
Big delays for trials in NJ due to judicial vacancies and case backlog . . .
The handful of people who are still in their NJ homes since 2008 without making any mortgage payments rejoice, probably.
https://gothamist.com/news/nj-supreme-court-chief-justice-warns-of-historic-court-vacancies-as-6800-await-trial-in-jails
Good NY congressional re-distrcting map by special master in NY. The districts are way more-compact and logical. For example, many districts stop at a county line. The trial court judge is anticiapted to annonuce the new map today – still didn’t come out.
Stocks fall, heading for longest weekly losing streak since 2001.
Build back worse.
Lol told you. No cars on the road this morning, but somehow the most cars on the road after work this week. Sure are working hard from home.
No bear market yet
Major indexes down 3, 3 and 4% this week. No bear market. Told you there would be a ton of resistance around 11,000. That’s our 2nd shot at it. Usually, third time is the charm when it comes to TA.
And no, I didn’t touch my holdings. Need to see us bust through 11K. There’s always Monday.
How about that Washington Whale everyone? Big round of applause for last hour.
Speaking of Washington Whales. Are you referring to the Government Whales or the Investment Bank Whales?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-07-08/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-central-banks-morph-into-market-whales
Got tapped this week in the market due to one position…broke my own rules and management and paid for it. Process, people.
Congrats to the parents here sending off children to college…well done, enjoy this remaining time with them!
Back on the market…still looking for downside but I will note two potential face ripping rallies…
When the shooting stops in Ukraine…which contrary to market opinion will precipitate a huge decline in the price of crude and possibly some material complexes. And aside from the indices the real action will be major moves under the surface among sectors.
Rates…I continue to believe the market is overestimating the amount of Fed fund rate (FFR) increases especially if as the shooting stops commodities do retreat. I expect a huge sigh of relief on the back of the July, possibly even the June, Fed meeting.
We do not have wage driven inflation, we have wealth driven inflation. One is an income statement issue, the other a balance sheet issue. Attacking household balance sheets with the FFR is using the wrong instrument especially as the inflation originated with the wild distortions of fiscal and monetary policies and global pandemic policies. We will see the Fed pull up on the FFR increases and focus on QT. However irrational, that change in market FFR expectations will unleash a multiday rally to remember.
FWIW.
“46 days Pumpkin-free”
No Washington Whales, just OpEx…
Absolutely in agreement with Russia/Ukraine cease fire.
I think your window for this inflation is too short. Though the wealth affect did play a major role in it, so did our debt that is completely out of control. I mean, it was always bad. But what happened since Trump took office is pure lunacy. Then there is the psychological impact that a recession has on spending habits. Then we’ll have excess inventory to work through (excessive excess too, due to recent shortages and then overproduction into a recession induced weaker consumer spending phase) which could really negatively impact earnings due to goodwill writeddowns on it. Then there’s housing.
That’s true leftwing on the OPex. I sort of expected it.
Bear market rally number 2 has started?
Lmao
“the strip club is sadly a leading indicator and i can promise y’all we r in a recession lmao”
Reminds me of the good old days and the plunge protection team.
Someone called in a favor, they didn’t want to ruin the scorcher at the beach tomorrow.
Go long bennies on the boardwalk.
Pumpkin – Call your smart friends up at Coinbase and asked them why they laid off 1000 outsourced workers this week.
$2 Trillion of options expired today. That’s serious volume.
We might be saying similar things….under my scenario (Fed has a lighter touch on FFR than expected) one might actually expect inflation to languish longer, but lower.
Which, btw, is entirely consistent with Powell’s views…he is not a hawk at heart.
I think it will take the consumer to stop spending more than anything else. I don’t see the spending slowdown getting serious until the end of the Summer at the earliest. Either way, the reason I start scaling in around here, is in case I’m wrong. I’m probably 75% of the way back in at 13K if we see it again before 11K. I’m not stupid. :P
Good morning NJ.
I didn’t know they used outsourced workers. Do you know why they laid them off? Were the workers doing a bad job or is management just tightening the belt with the crashing stock price?
grim says:
May 20, 2022 at 6:26 pm
Pumpkin – Call your smart friends up at Coinbase and asked them why they laid off 1000 outsourced workers this week.
I’m of the view that with ultra high energy prices combined with rising rates, inflation will be gone before we know it. Of course that means we pretty much have a crash landing. By then, FED will be back in position to employ the same policies that allowed for low inflation and an 11 year bull run.
I think they have realized their mistake, which was a big one. Do not provide stimulus until the supply chain is ready to handle it. So ease it on if the supply chain is not ready, then step on the gas pedal when it can handle it.
No doubt in my mind though, they have done a fabulous job guiding the economy since preventing a depression in 2008 to 2020. And I don’t blame them for 2020, it was a pandemic conditions that nobody had experience guiding an economy through before. So they created inflation, which was the correct move to avoid deflation, but the supply chains messed it all up and created runaway inflation in the short term.
You live and you learn…I’m approve of the job the Fed has done since 2008. Getting better and better at their job. No one’s perfect.
Hate on the FED all you want, but 2010-2020 was the best economic decade of my life….i would say the same for most of you. It was a beautiful period of stability in jobs and pricing. Goldilocks. F’ing pandemic (black swan) f’ed it all up. It happens.
I expect next bull market might be even longer than this one unless we hit another black swan event.
The only thing that scares me. If the market continues to become ultra efficient with cost of labor by sending good avg american jobs to cheaper labor markets, going to continue to deal with inequality. Stock holding class will continue to kill it while avg american worker falls behind the growth of the capital (labor vs capital growth).
Simply amazing that you can get slammed 73% and still be up 60% over a 5 year period. Can’t wait for the next bull!!
“In premarket trading, ARKK trades lower by 2.7% and is also down year-to-date by 55.1%. Bigger picture ARKK has collapsed by 73% from its record high but still remains positive over a five year trading period, +60.3%.
Moreover, ARKG trades in the red in premarket action, down by 0.5%. Also ARKG finds itself -48.2% YTD and down by 71.5% from its record high. From a five year performance vantage point, the ETF is +58.1%.”
“Interesting week –
$NDX $SPX $TRAN declined to new bear-market lows
$ARKK $IWO stayed above their mid-May lows
Most growth stocks stayed above mid-May lows – they peaked before the indices, perhaps they will also bottom before the indices?”
“Seems as though long-term bond yields are rolling over; this is a tailwind for long duration assets.
As the economy weakens, another rotation (this time around…out of cyclicals/value stocks and into secular growth) might be on the cards…time will tell.
Tough bear market!”
Cleaning up email before heading out to work on the yard and got my first unsolicited email from a local realtor on new, improved price….townhome, outside of 287 loop but still should have been efficiently priced given it is a homogenous unit…broker is pulling deep into her email list, I know of her but never did anything with her or near that town…
Also in email, here’s a link to the market technician I like with a snap view of SPX/NDX. Has some reference to Trick’s question on the COVID reference point. If you can find uncut CNBC tape he goes on with more charts on Apple, obviously a large QQQ component…
https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1527763640568406021
Have a nice weekend all.
Lib, agree with you on consumer needs to slow down…just that at some point using FFR to tap the brakes on wealth in homes and stocks is very inefficient…it’s using a screwdriver to sink nails, can be done but why if you don’t need to…
Observations on Powell, from what he’s shown us historically…he wants FFR around 2.50, he firmly believes in the supply chain issues as the term transitory needed to literally be bludgeoned out of his vocab, and he’s not a hawk…plus, as with every Fed, they don’t want to raise in an election year let alone a meeting immediately preceding Election Day.
IMO he’s been running out the clock hoping against hope that commodity prices/supply shocks ameliorate before really slamming on the brakes with FFR, the deadline of which is the Sept meeting…if commodity/supply issues don’t work themselves out then (remember, transitory), constant use of the short rates at some point after that is only going to invert the curve, ie, not affect long rates or wealth in a controlled manner…meanwhile he has a big, fat balance sheet of long bonds he can sell into the market that will kick the long end of the curve up.
I’d look for a moderated stance/language from Powell on FFR relative to market expectations at least over the summer particularly if commodities and supply chain shocks start to show signs of levelling out. FWIW.
At the very least we are not going into the 4s/5s on FFR…CNBC had someone legitimate on doing math that contractionary policy had to affect real rates and was talking a 550 FFR…I would say very little chance of that….
I’d walk up with a nitrogen gas detector and tell them of it doesn’t beep, I’m suing for fraud.
They don’t fill the tires with shit.