Aaannnddd… They’re Off!

From the Star Ledger:

New home listings up 40%. What the market is like in all 21 N.J. counties.

Anyone who has shopped for a house in this red-hot market can tell you, there aren’t many to choose from.

The bidding wars and sky-high prices that have been the norm for the past two years were driven largely by the low inventory of homes for sale.

But the latest figures for new home listings show a 41% gain in new listings from February to March. Statewide, 9,281 homes hit the market in March, versus 6,566 new listings in February, according to the most recent data available from New Jersey Realtors.

The biggest increases were in Middlesex, Bergen and Monmouth counties. The smallest increases in new listings month over month were in Hunterdon, Salem and Essex counties, according to New Jersey Realtors.

Despite the month-over-month gains, the stock of houses for sale in New Jersey is still woefully low.

New listings were down 10.5% from a year ago. And if the trend of 9,200 new listings were to continue for the rest of the year, coupled with the number of current listings, that would put new listings for the year statewide at about 105,000.

“It sounds like a lot but it isn’t,” said Robert White president of New Jersey Realtors and a broker with Coldwell Banker in Spring Lake.

In 2018 there were 131,000 new listings and in 2019 there were 128,000. Inventory was already dropping before the pandemic and has slipped since.

“In a better market there would’ve been closer to 20,000 new listings,” White said.

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307 Responses to Aaannnddd… They’re Off!

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    first

  2. grim says:

    Not really though – this is Month over Month and it coincides with the typical early spring jump in inventory.

  3. 3b says:

    It will be an interesting Spring market. Already hearing a few people I know who were fence sitters on selling, now saying they missed the boat.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Every house I see listed in and around surrounding towns are gone in a flash. If it has a “for sale” sign on it, don’t blink because it’s gone. Either it’s a “house rich, cash poor” scenario or those with money are lining up. We’ll see if those inventory numbers continue to build. I said it a few weeks ago; I have a feeling through the latter part of the summer into the fall we’ll find increasing inventory based on the fence-sitters. I feel as though prices are going to stay elevated. No price decreases, just a slow grind at current levels and inching up the next few years. Fat Mary Muppet may get her price all for never using a mop, broom or bottle of Windex in years.

  5. 3b says:

    Fast: Time will tell, but I don’t see it. When your mortgage payment goes up over 50 percent from where it was a year ago, and out of control inflation, I see an ugly end.

  6. Libturd says:

    Me too. Hopefully, the house Chi thinks I will never sell goes up in three weeks. I will have sunk 50K into it. So it really looks great. So good now, that my realtor is going to stage it. Considering what we were offered with an oil tank in the ground (which scared most bidders away, though I was content with the offers), now the place looks like a million bucks and I expect to get no less than that.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    3b: An ugly end only for those that reached in the marginal areas. For the so-called haughty muppets, they’ll make ends meet even if they’re paddling below the surface like crazy. It’ll forever irk me that some stepped in shit and made a killing but for towns north of exit 160, it’s (cringe) rather insulated. But, if you’re going to list your house for 600K plus, don’t make me gag when I walk in the front door.

  8. 3b says:

    Fast: Still don’t agree, recession, inflation, potential job losses, student loan payments to resume at some point (away from whatever forgiveness is given). Additionally, all sorts of government initiatives in the works to create more affordable housing, including getting Fannie Mae approval for developments prior to construction completion. More help for small builders, massive changes in zoning laws, for more multi family units.

    Just look at all the multi family developments going up and in the haughty towns as well. The recently completed one in Park Ridge is one example. Another big one started on Kinderkamack Rd in Oradell, and a second one in Oradell was rejected due to site environmental issues, but they will be back.

    In the background we still have the big decline in the birth rate, which does not appear to be changing and will only grow in an inflationary environment rate. All this in my view will put downward prices on all forms of real estate.

  9. phoenix says:

    Now that’s gotta hurt

    https://youtu.be/_4h36hffUWk?t=28

  10. 3b says:

    I was watching Sunday Morning yesterday with Jane Pauley , and they had a segment on stud loan forgiveness. They interviewed this young 28 year old woman who was is living in a basement apartment in San Francisco. She is a graduate of Penn State, with 280k!! In stud loans. No discussion on how or why so much debt, and I don t recall her major or it might not have been disclosed. She talked about how she did not know, and she did not understand and blah, blah, also it’s unreal and it’s preventing her and her boyfriend from traveling the way they want to. But, she has a plan she will attend law school with more loans to get a better job!! Can’t make this crap up!!

  11. crushednjmillenial says:

    Baby formula shortage seems pretty bad for D’s in 2022 midterms.

    Seems like the kind of thing that can get apathetic people who don’t vote to actually show up. Fairly or not, the American voter seems poised to notice that there were no supply shortages until recently, and as of Jan. 2021, it has been D’s in power in DC.

    (I’m not saying that the D’s are solely responsible for supply shortages, but I see some populist furor falling upon the D’s for it).

  12. Bystander says:

    Ed/3b,

    You are probably both right but while millennials have two people employed, they will continue to bid up properties. We would need severe recession and high unemployment before there is a wake up call. This is 2005 all over again, the genie is out of bottle and fervor is strong. Millennials are now competing with each other..and be damned they will get a home. Put lipstick on the pig and it will sell for 100k more than you think. This house below is a few miles away but I travel this road frequently. Very busy, double yellow and home is close to street. They literally did nothing because fresh coat, bush clean-up, cheap kitchen, paint carpets. My Home is 1ooo sq ft larger, pool and I live on dead end. It sold last week for 75k more than I paid 7 years ago. This was my barometer of market. I am flummoxed on how people buy insanely priced crap on busy roads.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/350-Morehouse-Hwy-Fairfield-CT-06825/177291342_zpid/

  13. crushednjmillenial says:

    3B at 9:34 . . .

    I personally don’t think we go -20% peak-to-trough on this current NY metor real estate market, in nominal prices. The drop will be less than that – maybe -15% or -10%.

    You note good bearish factors, but the bullish factors are still here, too:

    SUPPLY, IMMIGRATION AND NATURAL BIRTH:
    -NYC metro housing supply = 7M housing units
    -high-end NYC metro housing construction = 70,000 units/year (1% of supply added each year)
    -125,000 new immigrants to this metro each year
    -approximately 90,000 additional people by diference between natural birth and death

    INFLATION:
    -probably want to own durables in an inflationary-environment
    -if we’re talking NOMINAL prices, and 9% overall inflation, a house bought today at $550k is equivalent to buying a house at $500k one year ago (and, that’s partly why one would want to buy their home – it’s an inflation hedge)

    One day, though, the financial system in NJ is going to break – the taxation gets high enough to squeeze out wealthy, and there are not enough breadmakers to pay the high bills. Then, NJ State bankruptcy? the Detroit-ification of NJ?

  14. crushednjmillenial says:

    ^by “high-end NYC mtero housing construction” – I meant in years of HIGH new construction, we might build as high as 70k new housing units. It’d be surprising/stunning if we ever have a 100k new housing units year, even if the economy was hot hot hot.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Doesn’t this just make the single family homes in desirable locations more valuable? Tearing down single family homes to build some of these too. Making the supply of single family homes less and less by the day.

    Weren’t you claiming that the supply issue is false? Oh right, because condos and townhouses are making up for the supply? I refuse to live in a condo or townhouse. I don’t want to deal with an HOA. I don’t want to live in a place that shares walls with others. So when they f/k up their plumbing, it becomes my problem too. They are also built like sh!t.

    Based on this, I don’t see how single family housing comes down in price like you believe. I just don’t see it. Not enough supply in desirable locations. Location, location, location…

    “Just look at all the multi family developments going up and in the haughty towns as well. The recently completed one in Park Ridge is one example. Another big one started on Kinderkamack Rd in Oradell, and a second one in Oradell was rejected due to site environmental issues, but they will be back.”

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Just look at all the multi family developments going up and in the haughty towns as well. The recently completed one in Park Ridge is one example. Another big one started on Kinderkamack Rd in Oradell, and a second one in Oradell was rejected due to site environmental issues, but they will be back.

    Yeah, this part I don’t get. Or do I? Look at what they did to that golf course in River Vale/Hillsdale on River Vale Road. It looks like a zillion town houses/condos are being built. Every new construction seems to be multis. But, as far as price declines? It ain’t happening and I say it not because I live among the unicorns. And because we went through this on this blog and there were no bargains to be had in certain areas, even after 2008. It’s beyond stubborn north of route 4; through recessions, inflation, student loans, whatever. Appearances have a price regardless. Muffy wants what she wants… smelly, dirty houses be damned.

  17. Bystander says:

    crushed,

    I would think white supremacists (yet again), slaughtering a dozen black people might look bad for Rs in midterms. All based on great replacement theory that Faux News and Tucker keep promoting.

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When Gov. Phil Murphy unveiled his $48.9 billion budget proposal on March 8, his administration said it expected to collect nearly $5 billion more than initial estimates last summer. That adjustment alone solidified a spot in the record books.

    Analysts from OLS now expect New Jersey to rake in nearly $51 billion by the end of June, about $8 billion higher than revenues certified by Murphy at the beginning of the fiscal year last July and more than $12 billion above the pre-pandemic peak.

    To put that into perspective: New Jersey tax revenues this year will be higher than total government spending in 2020 for a fourth of all European countries combined, according to a GlobalEconomy.com analysis of World Bank data.

    https://www.nj.com/politics/2022/05/what-will-nj-do-with-all-those-extra-billions-pouring-in-some-push-tax-breaks.html

  19. leftwing says:

    “…It’ll forever irk me that some stepped in shit and made a killing but for towns north of exit 160, it’s (cringe) rather insulated. But, if you’re going to list your house for 600K plus, don’t make me gag when I walk in the front door.”

    Translate the 160 reference for a non-Jersey boy?

    3b/Fast, I think you both can be right….to see an outright, meaningful decline will require a recession before we complete this tightening cycle which is unpredictable. If it happens then the likelihood is we dump. If not, I think you get the ‘consolidation’ scenario in the face of rate normalization whereby housing prices sit static +/- for some time as incomes, inventories (new builds), inflation, etc level off….

  20. 3b says:

    Crushed: I could agree with your analysis for the most part were it not for the last 20 plus percent increase last year. I expect to see that last 20 percent blown off. Simply unprecedented and all the proof of a bubble.

    As for the immigration, those are good points, but the decline in the birth rate is across all demographics, with the unusual exception of white unmarried women in their 40s.

    Yes, we would need to have a severe recession to impact jobs, but it is a real possibility.

    Bernanke believes we may have 70 s style stagflation going forward, and is also concerned about housing prices, but notes the loan quality is better than the last housing bubble. Whether that quality holds up in a recession is another story. Still lots of 5 percent mortgages that were getting approved.

  21. 3b says:

    Left: Exit 160 on the Garden State Pkwy, that’s where Fast believes haughtyville begins in Bergen Co.

  22. No One says:

    Good luck Libturd. You’ve put so much blood, sweat, and tears into your multi, and I’m really hoping you can take full advantage of this current housing price boom.
    You going for an under-pricing-induced bidding frenzy strategy or a high-priced, low # of offers strategy?

  23. 3b says:

    Fast: I don’t know about no bargains after 2008, I saw big declines 75/100k or more from the peak of the last housing bubble.

  24. 3b says:

    Lib: Good luck with the multi!! Dump it and take the money and run!! I think you will be very glad you did it now, out right at the end of the latest madness!

  25. Phoenix says:

    “She is a graduate of Penn State, with 280k!! In stud loans. No discussion on how or why so much debt”

    Well, someone has to pay for those Sandusky lawsuits.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b is the ultimate doom and gloomer. This guy has been waiting for a housing crash since 2001.

    Do you understand that the housing market is different than the stock market? Do you understand how it is an inflation hedge? Do you understand that no one sells in a down housing market? Think about it, if you owned a house, would you willingly sell for less than you paid? Sure, some people get forced into said position, but they are in the slim minority. Not enough of them to feed the supply of buyers in the entire market looking for a good home.

    Going to take hard work if economy hits recession to find a house to buy…I lived through it. From 2009 till the last week in 2011, I looked and looked and looked, and found nothing. Three f’ing long years of looking for a house that I would actually consider buying. I was going to give up. Was sick of it. Finally find a house worth buying, and I hear schmucks on this blog telling me how I overpaid. Go f yourself. Go find me a beautiful house for a sick deal….better off looking for a pot of gold at the end of the next rainbow you see.

  27. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Seriously, how is anyone supposed to feel sorry for her? 280k!!!

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You see. Someone makes their house desirable, and then they want top dollar. See how this works, 3b. If he doesn’t get what he wants, guess what lib will do…exactly like Chi has stated…he won’t sell.

    Btw LIb, seems like you made off well buying at the top of the market in housing. You collected all this rent and will see big appreciation gains. Hard to lose in real estate over the long-term.

    Libturd says:
    May 16, 2022 at 9:13 am
    Me too. Hopefully, the house Chi thinks I will never sell goes up in three weeks. I will have sunk 50K into it. So it really looks great. So good now, that my realtor is going to stage it. Considering what we were offered with an oil tank in the ground (which scared most bidders away, though I was content with the offers), now the place looks like a million bucks and I expect to get no less than that.

  29. Libturd says:

    No One,

    Will probably price it around where our offers came in at when we listed pre-work. The place really looks fantastic. Fenced in backyard with giant wood gazebo, with electric and ceiling fan. Fenced in garden area. Blueberry bushes among the gorgeous fauna (much if which will be blooming during the open house). No asbestos, new furnace with auto feed, rubber roofs and chimney recently resealed. From a maintenance standpoint, just about everything has been redone. Repainted the porch and non-sided exterior including window frames. It should show really well. Between the location and the fact it’s not an asphalt paradise like most multi’s, it will sell well.

  30. Jim says:

    Good luck , Lib.
    I put big bucks into all three I sold, then they sold quickly. Asbestos removal, two brand new high efficiency furnaces, new carpeting, new vinyl floors etc. The payoff was well worth the cost , although my buildings were not worth 1 million like yours. The most I spent was $20,000 on my 6 unit building, the advantage was it was gone quickly. I hope you can beat the next interest increase, Good Luck!
    The market is RED HOT now!

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And for someone always calling me a gambler….how is it that you advocate stocks over real estate when real estate is so much less risk. I’m with you, let me have the stocks, but don’t mock me for risk taking, and then claim stocks are such a better investment than real estate while ignoring the risk.

  32. 3b says:

    Crushed: I would also point out that for Bergen Co that the last big increase in population was in 2010, 22 years ago. Every year since it’s been basically flat, and it has declined every year for the last 3 years.

  33. 3b says:

    Of course in a down housing market people that don’t have to sell, won’t sell. We all know that . But to simply say I’m a down market now one will sell is just plain stupid. There are lots of reasons why people will sell in a down market.

  34. Libturd says:

    As to the budget surpluses. We’ve seen this play out before. What was a surplus becomes a shortfall as a recession eats it away.

    Quite frankly, it’s out money, and it should be given back. Fear not, it will mostly go into the pockets of those who pay no taxes and mostly to those who live on farms and drive German and Italian cars.

    By the way, drove down to exit 2 on the Turnpike and eventually back home yesterday. The number of cars racing on the turnpike and parkway are getting out of control. Where the hell are the police? We have more police per capita than any state in the nation. Are they working from home too?

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How many desirable homes or neighborhoods do you think each town has? Now do the math on you finding one of these. The odds are totally against you.

    3b says:
    May 16, 2022 at 10:40 am
    Crushed: I would also point out that for Bergen Co that the last big increase in population was in 2010, 22 years ago. Every year since it’s been basically flat, and it has declined every year for the last 3 years.

  36. 3b says:

    Lib: You forgot the public sector workers as well.

  37. Phoenix says:

    Phoenix: Seriously, how is anyone supposed to feel sorry for her? 280k!!!

    https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/collegeinc/

  38. Libturd says:

    And could be some big winds this afternoon between 3 and 5pm as the squall line moves through.

    You can see the squall line moving across Pennsy now.

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

  39. Libturd says:

    3B,

    It goes without saying.

  40. leftwing says:

    “As for the immigration, those are good points, but the decline in the birth rate is across all demographics, with the unusual exception of white unmarried women in their 40s.”

    Haha I’m going to go against my better judgement pick around the WFH scab, a discussion I’ve mostly pointedly avoided as I didn’t want to get sucked into that black hole…

    Items like immigration or national birth rates don’t matter for the towns we are discussing…immigrants have minimal affect on the areas in NJ we are discussing, the people in the gross immigration numbers are overwhelmingly not moving into these towns. Ditto on generic birth rate, as it is increasing in demographics not in these towns and arguably declining in the demographics in higher end towns.

    In looking at the towns/areas we are discussing I think there are two prime factors on prices. Were you born and bred here in NJ and economic/career opportunity…

    On the B&B…if you were raised here, have family here (parents, grandparents, siblings), have the social circle you grew up with here like any person you are more inclined – all else being equal – to settle in the area of your birth. It may be hard for B&Bs to understand but I can assure you there is nearly literally no adult human living in any other State of the Union sitting in their house and saying to their spouse over dinner “gee, I really wish we could relocate to NJ”.

    So the real question to ask on this first factor is are the families in the demographics and towns we are discussing having two kids (replacement number before in/out migration) or not.

    On the second factor, migration, it’s pretty simple to me. Demographics have always driven housing, no news there. NJ is one of four areas (LI, CT, Westchester) that thrived off the economic engine that is NYC. In-migration to these areas is arguably the marginal factor driving the increase in prices over the last decades as birth rates in the towns we are discussing have at best held constant and more likely declined. For the moment let’s assume that out-migration among B&Bs in these areas has been constant.

    So what is changing?

    The less one is required to be physically in this area to have the career and compensation traditionally offered only in these areas the less demand you can have for living – housing – in this area. In-migration is likely the most important marginal factor in the demand for housing in affluent NJ suburbs.

    In-migration can pull back significantly…why would someone leave their families, friends, and cities of origin if they don’t have to in order to get the careers and comp they seek? Obviously this is where WFH and the rise of competitive career centers (Nashville, Denver, Austin, etc) have an effect.

    Now let’s stop holding out-migration from this area constant and explore it. Out-migration among B&B college grads can tick up…for those kids where the family pull is not that strong and economics/career/lifestyle are more important factors career and comp portability can be a tipping point for them to leave.

    So what does it all mean?

    Birth rates in the towns we are discussing among the target demographic are at best neutral and likely unfavorable. There can be a slight new negative factor overlaid on this trend whereby B&Bs otherwise inclined to stay out-migrate to other cities and areas. And, the main swing factor, in-migration of high end professional households can be seriously at risk directly proportional to the need to be in proximity to the NYC metro area for one’s career.

    All told, longer term – decade or better – I would think the pressure is downward.

    Shorter term, the next couple years, no one knows and anyone professing to is just guessing as we burn off the distortions of the national economic events of the past decade.

    But, if one wants to look longer term, I would strongly suggest focusing on birth rates specifically and only in the demographics of the areas we are discussing (not State-wide or national), getting some kind of hard data on the trend of what and where newer B&B college graduates are doing when they settle down, and getting hard data on the in-migration of relatively newly established families from outside the State.

    Those three trendlines will better predict where longer term higher end NJ housing is going than anything more traditional like rates or such.

  41. MondayMorningBored says:

    ByStander,

    There was a cartoon in the Washington Post that has Tucker, Rand Paul and trump as pieces of Putin in a chessboard.

    Two points.

    Is well know that the far right mainly in Europe is heavily finance by russian intelligence, same applies in this country, they are doing the same thing they did under communism. Their strategy is keep your competitors off balance.

    Final point. What is known as russian mob in the US, are mainly Ukrainians from Kiev and Odessa. Originally many were jews released by the USSR in the 80’s and became criminals that preyed on their community, no different than the Italians and Cosa Nostra. They are similar in that Italy has many regional organized crime groups, but the Sicilians were the primary ones that grew root in the US. As such organized crime groups in russia at this point are a division of the fsb, united party, aka the putin corporation.

    At this point it can be safely said that a Ukranian is never going to self-identified as a Russian and vice versa. Therefore I think someone eventually is going to do a “quotation” as the Indians call it on one of these far right superstars that has a great affinity for putin.

  42. 3b says:

    Left: I agree for the most part with your analysis. Again though I would point out the decline in the birth rate is among all demographics ( the latest information is about 3 or 4 years old, but more recent studies indicate the trend is continuing), so I would say the decline in the birth rate is a problem going forward and on a national level.

    As for rates, I read ( Barron s I believe) that the average monthly mortgage payment has increased 55 percent from this time last year. That is of course a significant number and needs to be factored in to the housing question short term and long term.

  43. 3b says:

    Bernanke says Feds slow response to inflation was a mistake. It’s unusual for a former Fed Chairman to criticize a current Fed Chairman. But, Bernanke has a new book out , so got to create buzz to get people to buy it.

  44. leftwing says:

    3b, and I agree with you. Only point I would make is that rates are national…everyone, everywhere experiences substantially the same direction and magnitude. Since that means the rate variable is constant we need to tickle out the variables that actually impact higher end NJ from other areas….

    Wordy way of saying that NJ is not immune from national trends (good and bad) and if an increase in rates is blowing up NJ real estate it will do the same for Nashville, etc.

    Also, this trend of outward migration from the economic/career center of NYC is not new…one can easily argue it is 50 years old or better.

    Hey, btw….

    “41 days Pumpkin-free”

    Congrats.

  45. Bystander says:

    Monday,

    I wish I could say I get all your points. I am not well-versed on history there. It is starting to make sense. I was wondering connection with US right’s obsession with “great example” Hungary, Orban’s dictatorship plus his general support of Putin.

  46. 3b says:

    Left: I agree with your clarification on your original point. And yep!! 41 days comment free!! So much better for us and all on the board. Makes discussions interesting again.

  47. Phoenix says:

    Latest numbers are in:

    Workplace travel has decreased 20% in the US as America finds itself among the global leaders in ‘work from home culture’: More than 10% of US workers say they will look for another job if asked to return to the office

    The number of US work trips to and from work every day has dropped 20% from before the COVID-19 pandemic to now, a new study finds

    Researchers also found in a survey that a large portion of Americans plan to quit their job if they are forced to work five days a week in the office

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You didn’t grow up here, so I get it. Nj is a joke to people living in other states. I hope it stays that way. I don’t want more people coming here.

    Being spoiled growing up here, I really can’t live in many other locations. Between having quick access to airports or a quick ride into the city/beach/ or mtn hike…there is no way I could sacrifice all that to live in some landlocked location that is 3 hrs to the nearest airport. These places are nothing like nj and I just couldn’t live there after being so spoiled by what nj offers in terms of living standards.

    Not being close to the beach is a major hell no to me. I grew up with the jersey shore and the NYC skyline. I really don’t think I could leave…yes, a few other places I might live, but no place like jersey.

    “but I can assure you there is nearly literally no adult human living in any other State of the Union sitting in their house and saying to their spouse over dinner “gee, I really wish we could relocate to NJ”.”

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nope….big no. Real estate is based on ….location, location, location.

    “3b, and I agree with you. Only point I would make is that rates are national…everyone, everywhere experiences substantially the same direction and magnitude. Since that means the rate variable is constant we need to tickle out the variables that actually impact higher end NJ from other areas….”

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well, we are the fattest and laziest, so no surprise. God forbid they get off their lazy a$$ and actually go to work.

    “America finds itself among the global leaders in ‘work from home culture’: More than 10% of US workers say they will look for another job if asked to return to the office”

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love when I hear lazy people pushing WFH make wild claims that they now use the commute time to work more….stfu you lying sack of chit. Yes, you are willingly signing up to work more….only a gullible idiot believes that one.

  52. Boomer Remover says:

    What 3b said earlier about the total monthly nut increasing exponentially from just a year ago cannot be ignored. While we disagree on the overall direction of housing in NYC metro, but I think most of us can agree that mortgages which are 100% higher from just a year ago cannot be absorbed by millennial buyers.

    What are the Zoomers supposed to do when mortgages go to 6-7% without an attendant price adjustment? IMO, at some point income constraints take center stage, the market clearing price cannot continue to move up and right without jaw dropping wage inflation.

  53. JCer says:

    Pumps, NJ isn’t so unique there are quite a few places in the US with amenities. Most of the east coast has mountains and coast. The west coast as well. If you haven’t been to the Great Lakes you should get out more it too similarly has beautiful sandy beaches and some large hills, it’s not a bad place to live. NJ isn’t unique in these aspects, heck CT and NY are more similar than different, including all the urban blight and unsightly suburban towns.

    I think NJ realestate values are more grounded than other areas largely because we are 100% built out and the state/local government is basically run like a Ponzi scheme and is functionally insolvent. High property taxes actually discourage property speculation because it takes a heck of a return to eat the paid out property taxes. So we in general seem to see less volatility at least in primary residences because the demand has been strong and remains strong and the supply is constrained.

  54. Bystander says:

    JCer,

    Agree on Great Lakes though just enormous bodies of water. Seen all except Hurin. I saw Superior on way to Voyageurs NP. We were going to try Isle Royal National Park (island in Superior) but logistically too hard for trip.

    Personally, I think people should drive 4 hours to Finger Lakes. Very under-appreciated region. Probably skip shallow water of Owasco but most are beautiful. The gorges are unreal with Watkins Glenn State Park as unknown jewel of northeast. Staggering walk. Most people still have zero idea that region exists and focus on Lake George area

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Watkins Glenn State Park, Finger Lakes, etc. – This is definitely on my bucket list. I need to see this region for the beauty and for the fact that NASCAR runs a race at Watkins Glen International Raceway every year. :) I need to make a trip up there.

  56. 3b says:

    Some nice beaches in Delaware as well, it’s a bit of a schlep, but worth it. The beaches are quiet. Rehoboth Beach is especially nice, some great restaurants, quaint downtown. Lots of shopping too for those who like that.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    Upstate NY is beautiful, but do I want to live there? Carolinas are beautiful, but do I want to live there? Not bashing those places, most of america loves that. Most of america was not born and bred in north jersey. Understand this. Just like they mock nj or nyc, I feel the same way about where they live. Too slow, too boring, and too far from anything. I’m just not used to it. Lived this way for so long that it’s hard to make the move to the slower parts of the country. It’s like taking someone born and raised in southern cali and expecting them to love living in Raleigh NC. Just not going to happen.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have to understand, north jersey is a unique beast that offers a lot. Wayne has all this wild life where I live, but do I sacrifice anything for it? Nah, still basically living with everything at my fingertips….In the largest metropolitan area in our country.

  59. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    Don’t know about the NASCAR but check out Summer 1973 where GD, Allmans and The Band played to 600k at Watkins. You can find various recordings but insane event, with hours long performances. I think ABB played on a set with GD. Legendary.

    I saw Phish Superball back in 2011. That was cool but we had tactical error meeting friends. We had 12 pack and parked in entirely opposite lot on other side. Could not be more perfectly away. Early at 10AM, we tried to walk through gate and get to other lot (15m walk)..nope, security already there and would not let us through with beer. It would have been hour walk around the whole festival/track. We decided to split 6 cold beers each in 30m. It was hot and entertaining for a few hours but passed out on ground by Phish’s set at 2pm. Caught 1 or 2 songs..maybe.

  60. Libturd says:

    Crude is over $113.

    Should start seeing a 5 handle on regular.

  61. JCer says:

    Pumps, bad example on raliegh nc, tons of NJ, NY folks living there. You are pointing to this and that as unique but the value add here is not any of that but rather access to huge market, NYC, people live here to get paid or because they have family in the area other than that we are not on anyone’s radar. My point is that you have fairly large cities in what you consider flyover country that offer a high standard of living with access to a lot of the same amenities. I assure you in many major metros you are not “far from everything”, furthermore the beach and mountains in NJ certainly do not rank among the worlds best. By your metric I should go live in Barcelona, both the skiing and the beaches of the Costa Brava are much nicer than NJ.

  62. 3b says:

    Bezos and the White House fighting it out now on inflation and the Dems plans to fight it with higher taxes. Bezos also claims Manchin saved the Dems from even higher .

  63. 3b says:

    Barcelona is a magnificent city! And Costa Brava is beautiful!

  64. 3b says:

    Lib: A 5 handle on gas , and 6 on 30 year mortgages.

  65. leftwing says:

    Bezos seriously trolling the Administration….wonder what they are considering to get so under his skin…

  66. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    Yep, I’m very familiar with the ’73 jam up there. BTW, I cruised around for a few hours on back roads yesterday (weather was awesome) with the ‘Phish’ station on XM. They played pieces of a most recent concert in NY this past April (were you at that one?) as well other cuts. I was spacing out as I drove. The band can jam!

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    NJ beaches are by far better than most beaches in America. Maybe that’s just me, but I love the Jersey Shore.

    NC is boring as f/k. People that moved there past 20 years were going there for one reason. Price. Now that price is out of the equation, wtf would you choose to live in Carolina as opposed to north jersey? Why?

    So tell me, how long does it take to get to an airport in most of these places? Then how many direct flights do they actually offer? Just going on vacation is a f/ing hassle compared to north jersey that has access to 3 major airports. Of course, people living here take it for granted till they are living in their new location and now realize they don’t have easy access to multiple airports.

    All I am saying is that if you were born and raised in NJ, and have lived here for 40 years, it’s quite an adjustment to go from living in Wayne to some suburb in north carolina. It’s not the same no matter what you guys say. There’s a big difference. Just like there is a big difference for someone living in NYC and moving to NJ.

    Does this mean that those places aren’t livable for most Americans, no way. Most of America lives a similar lifestyle, most of America does not live the city life. Most of American does not live like the NYC metro does. It’s just different.

  68. Boomer Remover says:

    It is just you. You know, I think I liked it better when you just copypasta’d from twitter without proper attribution. Five paragraphs on your feelings on NJ? FOH.

    While the finger lakes are beautiful and who doesn’t like wine and lakes, there are no L3 EV chargers past Binghamton… it’s a charging desert for a non-Tesla EV desert.

  69. Juice Box says:

    re: Bezos.. He spends his days now on his space program mostly. Bezos has been working hard on trying to win a NEW moon lander contract as he lost out last year to Space X.

    $10 billion in the legislative pipeline now for moon landers. The administration is going to announce a moon landing as soon as 2025.

    Sponsor is none other than Chucky Schumer too.

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1260

    Passed Senate and now need to pass the house, but there is allot of opposition to Bezos from the far left, Bernie and crew etc.

  70. Jim says:

    Pumpkin,

    I know you keep track ARKK down today Berkshire Hathaway up. just like it usually is.
    Gotta love that Buffet vs. Cathie…. I know she is so innovative like buying coin over three hundred when it sells now for 66 or so.

  71. 3b says:

    Apparently there are reports of suicide by people who have lost a fortune and some everything in the Crypto bloodbath.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Did you say something…didn’t think so.

    Boomer Remover says:
    May 16, 2022 at 2:34 pm
    It is just you. You know, I think I liked it better when you just copypasta’d from twitter without proper attribution. Five paragraphs on your feelings on NJ? FOH.

    While the finger lakes are beautiful and who doesn’t like wine and lakes, there are no L3 EV chargers past Binghamton… it’s a charging desert for a non-Tesla EV desert.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have no understanding of cycles or different strategies. If you did, you would know that arkk is a highly volatile long-term strategy. Kicking her when she is down is no different than cheering her on when she is up. That makes you a lemming. They love her when she’s up, and they hate her when she is down.

    Unlike you, I respect her for sticking to her said strategy. That’s what she is supposed to do. Consolidating and doubling down on her highest convictions in the toughest of times. You just don’t understand it, so stop mocking it. You sound like the people mocking her back in 2017 when she was selling apple and facebook to buy tesla. All screaming and crying like little babies that she was an idiot and didn’t know what she was doing. Just let her do her thing…she is 66 years old and has been an expert in the industry for a long time.

    Jim says:
    May 16, 2022 at 2:52 pm
    Pumpkin,

    I know you keep track ARKK down today Berkshire Hathaway up. just like it usually is.
    Gotta love that Buffet vs. Cathie…. I know she is so innovative like buying coin over three hundred when it sells now for 66 or so.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at arkk…she has eliminated a lot of her positions and consolidated it a smaller amount of companies. She has been selling Tesla to buy this beat down growth stocks that SHE FEELS FITS HER STRATEGY for the long-term. Let’s go through the next cycle before you beat her up anymore. Give it a couple of years, let’s see what happens when the bulls return. For all you know, she is buying things at a fire sale right now, that can only be realized in hindsight. Give it some time. And if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen…it was a risk and it didn’t work out. Know what you are investing in.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yea, Cathie kicked the chit out of Buffet from her inception in 2014 to the pandemic highs. So much so, that she took an insane beating the past year and is barely losing to Buffet. What does that say? If we take out the stimulus/pandemic effect on the market, and just do 2014 to jan 1st 2020….she was queen. Best performer for half a decade. Stupid lemmings coming late to the game drove her stocks into bubble levels and then opened them up to a massive short attack where you have regular joe’s like BRT shorting her to death. Guess what, she is still here and still surviving. Still getting massive inflows by the smart investors that ran with her from 2014 to 2020 and sold….knowing the cycle was peaking and was over. Now they are loading up for the next cycle.

    “Gotta love that Buffet vs. Cathie…. I know she is so innovative like buying coin over three hundred when it sells now for 66 or so.”

  76. leftwing says:

    Jim:

    As you already know for long term buy and holds like BRK and ARKK how you get to the return – ie, volatility – matters more to shareholders.

    So BRK and ARKK have similar returns since the inception of ARKK?

    During that time for the long term shareholder CW has massively destroyed wealth, in an amount on order of the failure of Enron or Lehman. Less than 3% of her LT holders would have seen any profit at all. The rest, losses, mostly huge.

    Buffet has generated extraordinary wealth. During that same period 96% of his LT holders have a profit, and the ones with losses only have minor losses.

    In chart format:
    https://imgur.com/a/j7AfNtO

    The journey matters at least as much as the destination.

    Each of Buffet and CW took their shareholders from London to NY.

    Buffet’s shareholders took Concorde from Heathrow.

    CW’s shareholders walked and swam, by way of Everest. Most her party expired during the journey due to exposure to the elements.

    Comparing percentage terms in a vacuum is for novice investors.

  77. Trick says:

    Pumps

    Have you ever been to a beach outside of NJ? Grew-up going to LBI, then when I got married and had kids started going to OBX and other beach’s down the east coast, would take them any day over a NJ beach.

  78. BRT says:

    He still doesn’t understand that her actual returns are probably around -70 billion at this point. He looks at a chart and still think she’s up.

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Need to get a biz suit. I haven’t bought one in about 5 years. Need to go to a client funeral and dinner. Any advice beyond the obvious? Just don’t want to make a stupid decision when I have no time to look into it…….

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty,

    She has beat the hell out of buffet during the normal market cycle. What has been killing her, and high growth in general, are short attacks. That’s what creates the deep value. Over f’ing selling.

    So if you have any type of understanding, you don’t hold ark through the cycles. You f’ing ride it and then sell when it gets frothy. Then you start buying new positions on the way down when a bear market hits, and then sell again when you have rode the bull long enough.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is up. All the lemmings that went all in at the top are not.

    BRT says:
    May 16, 2022 at 4:32 pm
    He still doesn’t understand that her actual returns are probably around -70 billion at this point. He looks at a chart and still think she’s up.

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    OBX is the biggest waste of time if you live in nj. I will never understand the families that drive all the way down there for the OBX. My wife and I did it once, and both agree never ever again. Give me LBI all day over the OBX.

    Trick says:
    May 16, 2022 at 3:54 pm
    Pumps

    Have you ever been to a beach outside of NJ? Grew-up going to LBI, then when I got married and had kids started going to OBX and other beach’s down the east coast, would take them any day over a NJ beach.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you understand that the lemmings that turned her fund, and high growth in general, into a bubble by overbuying are now doing the exact same thing on the way down? That’s what made it so easy to short. You had the lemmings to go against. They now have made high growth/ark type stocks and complete f’ing value. I just can’t wait till these idiots jump back in next bull market making it overvalued again and an easy sell. Just sell to the lemmings, and then buy from the lemmings.

    “What has been killing her, and high growth in general, are short attacks. That’s what creates the deep value. Over f’ing selling.”

  84. 3b says:

    Fast: From our earlier discussion. I forgot about the 150 apartments in Emerson. They have started construction on those too.

  85. BRT says:

    Math is not your strong suit

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, can she control when the lemmings buy in? They got greedy. They flooded her fund with their 401ks. So again, how is her performance negative. Not her fault when the money flowed in at the wrong time…it actually hurt her. So what is your point?

    BRT says:
    May 16, 2022 at 5:47 pm
    Math is not your strong suit

  87. Trick says:

    We like a beach that we do not have to fight to find a spot to set-up, even rented one of the 4×4 houses one year. Pull up park and unload. Swim where you want instead of packing in like sardines. My guess it you like Jones Beach too, and not for the concerts.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Based on performance from 2014-2021….she was the best stock picker in the game. Wasn’t even close. Absolutely knocked it out of the park with pure conviction on stocks people were laughing at her for…just like they are doing to her now. So I think she has earned another shot at another cycle. Just know when times get bad, this is going to get slammed first and it will be violent. So take the money and patiently wait for the bear to create buys again.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When are LBI beaches packed like sardines? Wtf are you talking about?

  90. Trick says:

    LBI is better then most NJ beach’s, we will be there this summer. Point is there are better beach vacation places outside NJ. I would prefer to drive with the family and try something new then just stick to the crowd NJ beach’s. Each year we switch off, beach’s one year then on a lake the following. NJ, NY, NC, Virginia, Delaware etc.
    And I thought you were off the WFH

  91. 3b says:

    Trick: Reheboth Beach is becoming one of our favorites. Park and stay the whole day if we wish. Park to beach, back ti car and then check out the restaurants etc. still like Spring Lake, and Asbury. However, with Asbury too many straight people coming there now who are of the belief anything goes. And it’s become super crowded.

  92. JCer says:

    3b, Delmarva is pretty nice but OC is too built up and not in a good way. The jersey shore is great but it is either very expensive and/or crowded. 2 weeks at the jersey shore costs as much as a 2 week all inclusive vacation over the school holidays or a 2 week trip to Europe in the summer.

  93. JCer says:

    Cape May is the best spot at the shore, nice beaches, historical architecture, good food and pretty good night life, there is more going on down there than anywhere else on the shore. Spring lake is nice and Asbury is cool in a very quirky way. Ocean City or PT pleasant have good family friendly boardwalks and the Wildwood boardwalk is a good time albeit more than a bit trashy.

  94. 3b says:

    Never did the 2 week at the shore thing. Way too expensive! As you said , Europe was cheaper, and we have traveled there a lot. OC is definitely built up, but my guys enjoyed it when they were little, and there was a lot to do, with the amusement park and miniature golf, if weather was not great one day and or in the evening. It was when we went pretty easy to get around too. We used to get a condo in one of the high rises on the ocean for a good many years. Also would check out the wild horses at Asateague.

  95. leftwing says:

    “BRT says…her [CW’s] actual returns are probably around -70 billion at this point.”

    LOL…Let’s have some fun with numbers. So I did the math…

    Big picture…since inception 2.27 billion shares of ARKK have been purchased. Of those 2.23 billion were purchased ABOVE the current share price. That means 98.3% of the ARKK shares purchased over the life of her fund are underwater.

    The value of all shares purchased is $219B. Of that amount $218B of value was purchased ABOVE the current share price.

    Those shares purchased above today’s share price have LOST an aggregate value of $126.8 BILLION.

    I don’t know if this is worse…of the 2.27 billion shares of ARKK purchased only 39 million are above water. These holders have GAINS of only $193 million…

    Bottom Line:

    Losses from CW…..$126 BILLION
    Gains from CW……$193 million

    JFC. She ought to be locked up.

  96. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi,
    For a suit in that situation I would always recommend Mens Warehouse. I walked in at 8PM one night they had closed early for stock taking. I explained I needed a suit for my fathers funeral. The guy took one look at me and pulled the sizes of the rack without measuring. They had me out the door in 20mins complete with hemmed pants.

    One company where the service meets the promise.

  97. leftwing says:

    Oh, and for some reference, here are the Hall of Fame of stock losses:

    Worldcom $175 billion
    Cathy Wood – ARKK 126 billion
    Enron 74 billion
    Bernie Madoff 65 billion
    Lehman Bros 60 billion

    Disclaimer: Other losses taken from public sources, Wiki, Investopedia, CNBC

  98. BRT says:

    logic is not your strong suit either

  99. BRT says:

    but left, those first 1.7%, if they even still hold, are up, so because they came first, she’s up!

  100. leftwing says:

    LOL, BRT, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry…aside from being totally bereft of logic…

    I used the data behind the graph I linked to earlier…that lowest bar, the best purchase price of all of the 2.27 billion shares ever purchased, was at prices between $15 to $27.

    So how many shares traded at those prices? 1.2 million shares. Of 2.27 billion.

    That’s 0.0006 of all shares purchased.

    Dear lord.

    And for that lucky slimmest sliver of investors the annualized return is about 10% over the seven years, basically the S&P….everyone else….well, damn, suck it up it’s for INNOVATION.

  101. Ex says:

    5:02 always Hugo Boss.

  102. BRT says:

    We are doing standardized testing today in school.

    Michael bets $100 on the Knicks and wins.
    Michael then bets $1000 on the Knicks, and wins.
    Michael then bets $100,000 on the Knicks and loses.

    How much is Michael up?

    a) $ -98,900
    b) $1,100 if you pretend he didn’t make the last bet
    c) Just you wait, the Knicks are going to win it all one day
    d) Not his fault, it’s all the other idiots that bet on the Knicks and the evil people that bet against them

  103. BRT says:

    Actually, now that I think about it, that 1.7% of original shares was all Bill Hwang

  104. Phoenix says:

    Time to get on board with that pronoun thing after all.

    “Discuss.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spain-mulls-three-days-menstrual-leave-women

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, the problem here isn’t Cathy Wood. Ultimately, tech stocks are volatile. The next generation of tech stocks is likely to be even more volatile.

    Again, people panic sold instead of holding….all this did was create massive deep sale opportunities. Those lemmings ignored ark in the early days of its inception. They then piled in at the top, and then panic sold all the way down. These people don’t belong in stocks….or if they do, they should be in safe index funds because they can’t handle high growth investing.

    If you can’t handle volatile high growth investing in disruptive tech, stay the f away. You can’t always expect to be up. High growth doesn’t work like this, it works in cycles. So quit your bitching and buy the fire sale as a long-term strategy, or ignore it. Clearly, ignore it, you can’t handle the swings. You are not a long-term investor in high growth and should go buy berkshire.

    I can’t believe you guys don’t see the extreme fire sale, and instead keep calling it all chit companies. To each and their own. That’s why few people make big money in the stock market. The slim minority will be buying it now, while the losers will create an overbought top as they chase the next run when it’s already too late.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s happening in oil/energy right now is no different than what happened to high growth in 2020. Ark was up 142% in a year….wtf did you think would happen next? Reversion to the mean. So what do you think is going to happen if you buy oil/energy plays right now….that’s right, you are paying for the exit of the investors that bought when it was dead. No different than what happened to ark.

    Is it the fault of energy fund managers that the market decided to pile in and create a bubble in energy right now? Will you guys be beating up these energy fund managers when this cycle ends and their funds get slammed returning to the mean? I hope you do, because you did it to cathie for over a year now.

  107. PumpkinFace says:

    You buy anything yet? My guess is no.

  108. Phoenix says:

    The stock market:

    “Never let a good crisis go to waste”.

    Winston Churchill

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, people are actually getting it. She is legend when it comes to picking disruptive tech. The past year fall has nothing to do with her and she has never swayed from said strategy which says it all. You fools are crying and advocating that she should have changed strategies the past year instead of DCA into her highest convictions. Typical of mainstream players…

    “As I look at all these posts from the 13F’s, I truly realize how visionary the $ARK funds truly are to embrace many of the companies in cutting edge biotech that many of the other companies haven’t even figured out yet like #CRISPR, #SynBio and #AI/#ML in drug development.”

    “I disagree with the mainstream too- I think she’s picked out some truly visionary companies.

    But the second issue is price- I think criticism on when she buys these is legitimate.”

    “I agree as I was really critical of the valuations last year that they were buying at for some of these companies, but they have been averaging down since then so I guess its about strategy. Most of the mania last year wasn’t from $ARK but from the millions cult like chasers.”

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I told you, I have been buying DNA because it’s my highest conviction in the sector I believe has huge upside coming down the road. Earnings came out yesterday for quarter 1….282% yoy growth. Company still on the right track. I don’t see how this company doesn’t continue to grow and become massively profitable down the road. Current prices are a joke because biotech is not en vogue at the moment. How long will it be out of favor with investors, not sure, but hope long enough to build a solid cheap base of shares.

    PumpkinFace says:
    May 17, 2022 at 9:31 am
    You buy anything yet? My guess is no.

  111. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    How about we get our own sense of worker dignity in order before worrying about Spain?

    Today, only 21% of US workers have access to paid maternity/family leave through their employers.

  112. No One says:

    It’s pathetic when some guy is talking to himself to justify all his stupid ideas, at one point claiming he’s going to do something for the next 10 years, then claiming he never owned it, then obsessing over it like someone who clearly has owned it.
    pathetic guy=> Gollum
    ARKK => “My precious”

  113. Libturd says:

    It’s really incredulous. The village idiot espouses Cathie Woods like she’s the next Thomas Edison. At least three of the regulars here point out the major flaw in her investment strategy. Less than a year later, the market collapses. The flaw proves out exactly as predicted and she goes from first to worst. Nonetheless, the village idiot again, chooses to ignore the advice of the experts here, even after exactly what they said would happen, happened.

    The idiocy is simply unparalleled.

  114. Libturd says:

    “Earnings came out yesterday for quarter 1….282% yoy growth”

    Wrong. They have never had any earnings. Just revenue growth. Another gamble. It’s all you know Pumps.

  115. 3b says:

    Bystander: That is a pathetic number. Perhaps related to the decline in birth rates,which is continuing.

  116. Boomer Remover says:

    Chi — In my view, men’s suiting falls into one of two broad categories; fitting or ill-fitting and fused or lined. Do you care if your jackets are fully lined or fused? If so,
    head on over to the rabbit hole at Styleforum where you will be well advised.

    You may want to consider picking up a top shelf sport coat instead and pairing that with something suitable that you already own.

    Canali has a company store in Woodbury, NY

  117. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd

    I read the last 6 months of CWS newsletter and looked at the stocks on his buy list since it’s inception. I’ve read the annual reports and 10ks for about half of the ones on his current buy list. He seems to like mostly boring companies with growing earnings that are the largest or one of the largest in its industry and/or have years worth of bookings. It was pretty interesting. I noticed he changes his buy price, but I don’t know if that’s because this year is so volatile or how he normally does it. Pretty informative. Thanks for the link.

  118. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    Today, only 21% of US workers have access to paid maternity/family leave through their employers.

    It’s not an easy answer, is it? Who’s worthy and who’s not? The maternity part is obvious but what about that family leave part? And even with the maternity part, who’s worthy? Who benefits and why? Isn’t it discrimination against those with no kids or plans to have them? Who gets family leave and for what reason? What new scenario can we devise to take more time off? I’m just tossing questions out there.

    The best advice I ever got from a manager/director was when he said “value added.” And it was just a few years ago but the phrase stuck. Maybe I heard it in the past but can’t remember. Value added… ask not what your company can do for you but what you can do for your company. What value can you bring to your work and personal life? To your country? What value can you add on a daily basis? Those that add value as opposed to those that create unnecessary burdens is the difference between success and failure. It seems obvious to me.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Mock it all you want, No One. IDGAF. I’m just here to have it in writing so that when the market changes, I will be able to show once again what happens when you mock the village idiot. YOU WERE ALL WRONG ON REAL ESTATE FOR HOW LONG, and KEPT DOUBLING DOWN YOUR MOCKING OF MY POSITION.

    WHO WAS RIGHT, HUH? Do we not have a super hot real estate market in 2020s? I called this sh1t out 8 years in advance. When it happens, you guys make dumb excuses because you can’t accept that the guy you were mocking and calling a village idiot was correct.

  120. Libturd says:

    Men’s Wearhouse is fine. If you are like me and wear a suit once a year, they are fine. They are far from bespoke quality. Especially their own branded stuff. They often have BOGOs, but you’ll be getting two cheap suits instead of one decent suit, which might be okay. For me, it never works out as my size changes before I even wear the second one. They will also hard sell you belts and shoes, which is always annoying. But for speed, you can’t beat them and they tailor them pretty quickly.

    Macy’s sells quality suits. Alterations took forever. But this was a decade ago.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Meant that earning REPORT came out yesterday for q1. No kidding it doesn’t have earnings yet because it’s an early stage company.

    Call it gambling, I don’t care. You can’t make good money if you don’t take risks. You like boring big companies that have limited chance for loss, but also a limited chance for growth. F that. That’s what the 401k is for. I’ll be taking risks that I missed out last cycle in 2009 that would have changed my life. Instead I listened to people afraid of risk and consumed with doom and gloom. Had I not listened, I would not be working right now. Not making that mistake again.

    Libturd says:
    May 17, 2022 at 10:25 am
    “Earnings came out yesterday for quarter 1….282% yoy growth”

    Wrong. They have never had any earnings. Just revenue growth. Another gamble. It’s all you know Pumps.

  122. 3b says:

    Fast: That is unrealistic in this day and age. Women make up the majority of the workforce, and unlike the late 80s when I was starting out, most women have no choice but to work. If people want their 600k for their crap shack in upper haughty Ville it takes two incomes. At the same time we have a massive decline in the birth rate, and so we want women to have children as well as work, well than we need to offer quality maternity and family leave. Should everyone just choose not to have kids so then it’s fair, to those that don’t have kids? Is that the country we want? No kids then who will pay into social security and Medicare and fund the military and all the other costs.
    As well companies with good family leave policies also make them available to take care of a sick spouse or elderly parent when needed. So that is a benefit too. As for bringing value added to a company of course that’s important, but in the end if they decide you are too expensive etc than out you go.

  123. Libturd says:

    HMB,

    He uses my strategy. He looks for good values in long-term, high growth companies. IMO, it’s the safest, low risk method possible. You won’t become the next Bill Gates. You will beat the indexes over time. That should be the goal. Keep learning. The next place to study is INVESTOPEDIA.com.

    Do not look at Raging Bull, Simply Wall St., Motley Fool, or anything you must pay for. If you are serious about learning. I am in an online investment club that is looking for new members. You can learn everything you need to know if you want to make investing into a profitable hobby. It’s extremely cheap and will cost you about 3 hours time per month. It meets once per month online on the 2nd Monday at 7PM EST. Let me know. We could use some fresh blood.

  124. Libturd says:

    Pumps,

    Let’s see where housing is three years from now.

  125. leftwing says:

    BRT, you have a wicked and subtle sense of humor [applause]. LOL.

    Lib, agree totally on the ‘avoid’ list. Would throw seekingalpha in the do-not-touch category as well. And nearly all of Twitter. Some names that may help those looking to manage some of their own money…Gundlach for macro, nearly no one better; Tom Lee at Fundstrat for equities, usually very reliable but beaten up a bit recently; Carter Worth for technical analysis (yes, TA can be voo-doo BUT when everything else breaks down, when there is no compass during the times of high market stress when you need signposts the most, the market reverts to it); mostly anything from Bespoke; and there is a bald guy whose face I can picture so clearly whose on CNBC some time and can’t recall his name and firm, I’ll have to look it up who is very solid on equities. The equities guys are experienced, analytical, thorough, and don’t speculate. Lastly, remember, nearly everyone will talk their book (the above less so, but still).

  126. PumpkinFace says:

    Aside from selling ARK to buy DNA, when and how much more have you purchased?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 17, 2022 at 9:56 am
    I told you, I have been buying DNA

  127. leftwing says:

    “It’s not an easy answer, is it? Who’s worthy and who’s not?…What new scenario can we devise to take more time off? I’m just tossing questions out there.”

    Been out of big corporate for a while so no idea how it is now but…why social engineering at all?

    I mean, by definition, since everyone has different circumstances and priorities formatting benefits around items other than those that are universal (eg, healthcare) is going to produce a less than optimal outcome in total and favor some people over others…

    When I was in Europe a couple of the more progressive countries (Sweden, Swiss?) had just a block of time one could take, NQA….in addition to normal vacation….bereavement, birth, whatever. I don’t think you even had to say.

    Swiss also had ‘anniversary’ time off….after a certain number of years (say, ten) and then on certain anniversaries thereafter (five years?) you were required to take a solid month off….remember it well, our head of equity sales hit one of those periods during an absolutely crazy period and left for a month…to snowboard. He wasn’t a young guy either. LOL.

    “42 days Pumpkin-free”

  128. 3b says:

    Left: True , Europe in general offers a lot of paid time off, including maternity/ family time. They also offer heavily subsidized or free child care. However, even with all of that, the birth rates in Europe are low too. So what’s the answer? I don’t know, maybe people just don’t want kids any more.

  129. No One says:

    I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this before but there’s a good investment philosophy book for which the author basically put all the material out for free, including videos and powerpoints, I think because he was pissed with his publisher.
    It will not tell you what stocks to pick, how to pick stocks, or when to buy stocks, or anything like that. But it will provide a big picture perspective of why stocks act like they do.

    His bottom line is that over long periods lower risk assets outperform both high risk and zero risk assets, which is not what Nobel prize winners teach. And he provides a psychological theory for why this would be. Basically, both pros and amateurs are willing to pay a premium to gamble, like to follow the herd, are short term, and are envious rather than greedy.
    While I don’t agree with all his premises and conclusions, and some of the data is dated now, I think his work is unusual and worthwhile. It’s more geared to investment professionals, but intelligent amateurs should be able to follow.
    efalken.com/video/index.html

  130. 3b says:

    Another person pushed to death by a subway train coming home from Hunter College, robbery attempt. NYC falling apart.

  131. Bystander says:

    Ed/3b,

    Lots of companies offer pet insurance, domestic partner coverage, city gym membership (can’t use in burbs) and all kinds of perks that I personally could never use. Maternity is not an equivalent. If employers pay on W2 then have offer 1 month paid leave as mandatory. It is called human dignity and a responsible rich society should easily absorb but no..we prefer to give child tax credits which do nothing when about to give birth and need money and time.

  132. crushednjmillenial says:

    Big day in US politics . . .

    Does Trump’s endorsement of Dr. Oz win that primary in PA or does an establishment candidate win? Or, the other, perhaps, more-MAGA candidate that didn’t get Trump’s endorsement?

  133. Bystander says:

    Dumpy backed candidate lost in Nebraska last. His backing lost Texas US house seat last sumner. He lost the two GA senate candidates in early 2021. This is non-sense. It more complex than Trump won, Trump lost yet media makes him wedge issue for ad clicks. Trump tries to jump on winning horse. He endorsed Mastriano for gov only 3 days ago..now, it will be seen as Trump got him in. Pure media non-sense.

  134. No One says:

    3b,
    It’s okay because it wasn’t a confirmed hate crime. She just died because hoodlums were trying to rob her and didn’t care if they killed her. Race of the assailants wasn’t mentioned, but were probably not wearing MAGA hats, otherwise it would be front page news worldwide. This one barely made it into newspapers.
    https://www.dhakatribune.com/north-america/2022/05/13/bangladesh-born-girl-dies-after-falling-under-moving-train-in-new-york

  135. Bystander says:

    No One,

    It was probably your everyday violent R racist, not wearing a red hat. Good point. We have to worry about them too. Tucker and Faux New sleaze pumping Great Replacement theory and NYC is not immune.

  136. 3b says:

    No One: It’s a shame she will only be remembered by her family. Coming home at 9:oo at night from college, perhaps a night course and her life is snuffed out. Same with the victims in Buffalo, everyday mundane activity shopping in a super market and all those lives snuffed out by a lunatic.

  137. No One says:

    3b,
    My 20 something niece who lives in NYC and is Asian is scared to death of subways. She will only go in a group but I think in the wrong place even a small group isn’t enough. She got confronted by one of the sub-humans of NY last year and fortunately ran away. No bystander it wasn’t a Republican who watched Tucker, who btw is against crime. It was the exact stereotype which she as a good young liberal has been taught to repress her fear of, and pretend that she is a race-ally with. I think that probably traumatized her the most because now she can’t pretend that she’s perfectly safe walking through her diversity wonderland at night. She wants us to buy her some pepper spray next time she visits because of course that’s illegal to buy that in NYC. I guess it might give hoodlums red eyes and psychological trauma.

  138. BRT says:

    The #1 rule was never let anyone close the distance on you in NYC. Anyone who abandoned that is asking for trouble.

  139. OC1 says:

    Pepper spray IS legal to buy in NYC. Can only be sold by gun shops or pharmacys.
    https://fairpunishment.org/is-pepper-spray-legal-in-nyc/

  140. 3b says:

    No one It’s a shame, but sadly seems to be so common now with all this subway crime. A big problem as well is which violence and crime is focused on and which is not.

    The Buffalo mass shooting of course should be a huge focus, but the other violent crime as well . When it turned out that violence against Asians was not being carried out by the hoped for group that the left wanted, then they ignored it.

    It was another awful weekend in Chicago with shootings. All the violence needs to be condemned, not the just the violence that supports the lefts or the rights politics. It’s shameful this is where we are.

  141. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The replacement theory stuff is codified into the democrats platform. They wrap it up into the typical sanctimonious language but it’s in the open.

    Flood the place with third worlders as fast as possible and you capture a permanent majority. We have open borders and red eye government flights spreading these people coast to coast. That’s insane.

    Point out the fact that the left has weaponized race whenever possible and they lose their minds. Nothing new.

  142. Bystander says:

    It is typical R response – deflect when you can’t morally justify your insane rhetoric and actions that feed white supremacist wing of your party. Let’s focus on one random death that happens everyday and compare to dozen black people being targeted and slaughtered. It is accepted feature of your party..racist white supremacist gun nuts for Trump. Camp Auschwitz guy was front and center at your insurrection too. Pat on the back. A sitting president tweeting out a video with guy shouting ‘white power’..honest mistake.

  143. Bystander says:

    Yes, NYC and Chicago are sh*thole dangerous cities now, except more people are moving there than ever. Oh you meant the Chicago black neighborhoods with black on black crime to justify white on black crime…got it. I wonder if black people see a difference…well they should not as all crime should viewed equally as equal problem for all of us. No, wait let’s just discuss murders in general to really squash any R culpability at all for this particular brand of slaughtering . Semi-auto rifles..NOT PART OF THE PROBLEM. NEVER DISCUSS.

  144. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    I didn’t say anything about violence. There’s no excuse for that.

    I was pointing out that the demographic shift is a stated goal for the left. It is.

    You lost me with the other screed but I have no problem examining these ideologies. Did someone “call for arms” the way Lori lightfoot did last week? I must have missed it.

    Where someone is responsible for violence, let’s say so. Let’s start with the left and their tolerance for Street violence. Mini massacres are happening every day.

  145. Juice Box says:

    Chi – There are no less than five really nice places in town to get a nice tailored suit as well as Brooks Brothers. Will you have it in time for a funeral though? Nope…Get something off the rack Kenneth Cole or Hugo Boss at Macy’s or JC Penny’s and run over the nearest cleaners/tailor and see if they can rush a hem in your skirt for the funeral. Most likely pants cuffed etc, you should be able to find a jacket in your size. Same with shirt and tie..

  146. 3b says:

    Bystanders: Trump was despicable in not condemning white supremacy during the debates when he was running for reelection.

    I also believe Black on Black crime should be condemned. All violence should be condemned no matter who commits it.

  147. Bystander says:

    Oh of course, not..you guys are just the WWF ringside managers screaming things on the megaphone, throwing the chair into ring then pointing at other manager. Violence occurs in the ring? Uncalled for. Not my problem.

  148. 3b says:

    Powell says soft landing is plausible. Interesting choice of words plausible vs possible. Market up on his comments I presume, but might need a day to digest, plausible vs possible.

  149. Juice Box says:

    No One – loads of Pepper Spray on Amazon Prime. Just ship it to her it will arrive maybe even tomorrow. Keychain one would be best since nobody goes anywhere without keys..

    https://www.amazon.com/s?k=pepper+spray+keychain&crid=H0F8LLU94UKI&sprefix=pepper+spray%2Caps%2C214&ref=nb_sb_ss_retrain-deeppltr_4_12

  150. 3b says:

    Bystander :Just FYI on NYC , Chgo population , Manhattan lost almost 7 percent of its population in 2021, along with declines in other boroughs as well. Additionally, the NYC Metro area which includes the Newark north Jersey area lead the country in largest population decline. Chgo has been losing people for over a decade, and is essentially flat over the last couple of years.

  151. Bystander says:

    3b,

    We all hope for that, but the issues are not the same. I am sure you know this so let’s not bring it down to all singing kumbaya around a fire. These people have been emboldened purposely by Trump and Faux News. It is a voting block as many have sympathies, like Goat, & fall for Great Replacement non-sense . We all know it. Here we are..again. In the immortal words of Chris Rock “if white are people are losing, who’s winning?”

  152. Bystander says:

    3b,

    Was it violence or pandemic that caused people to move from NYC, causing this temp decline?

  153. chicagofinance says:

    Max, Stu, Juice & Remover: thank you. Actually remover, I was thinking the same thing about just grabbing a blazer. I have a great one from Nordstrom, but it just doesn’t cut it anymore. Fucking COVID-era life sucks!

  154. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Think society is starting to break. So many fights today in school. So much anger out there.

    Just look at the headlines…cities are not the only place where people are unleashing their anger. It’s happening everywhere. Small towns never make the headlines, remember that.

  155. 3b says:

    Bystander: I am guessing it was pandemic and violence and the general decline in quality of life, that encouraged people to leave ,plus the remote / hybrid opportunities.

  156. chicagofinance says:

    From Strategas: in 2022 more money has flowed into the 8 ARK funds than all energy ETF’s combined. Also, people still betting on a rally in The Ten.

    leftwing: you might be thinking of Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity.

  157. 3b says:

    Bystander: I don’t deny any of that. But the left is guilty as well. Who speaks for the hard working decent people in these inner city communities that live with this violence day in and day out, and especially worse on the weekend. The left won’t touch it, as it does not fit their narrative.

  158. chicagofinance says:

    left: you know who really has a sixth sense is Guy Adami. It’s just that Fast Money has changed its format over the last 7-10 years. They really used to dive into a broad set of investable names, and less the speculative stories. When they had segments where Adami got to be focused and pitch ideas, he was uncanny. I think the other problem is that he has been out of the hardcore game too long. He is more focused on entertaining now.

  159. Bystander says:

    3b,

    You are right that most things have shared blame. This ain’t one of them. We took away alcohol for over a decade. If gun deaths don’t come down then you get gun back..deal? Let’s try banning just assault style rifles…nope..ok, how about just even ensuring a background check at gun show? Nope. It is lunacy.

  160. 3b says:

    Bystander; How did this guy in Buffalo NY get a gun in a state with such strict gun laws?? As for military type weapons I agree civilians should not have access to those types of weapons.

    As for Black on Black crime , no one cares, the right or the left, does not fit the narrative.

    Meanwhile there are thousands trapped in these hell hole who are good hard working people. Can we help them and let the gangs kill each other? No, because part of the solution is getting those good people out of that environment. Republicans I know will say no straight up, they will ruin the neighborhood. Every Liberal I know family or friend says the same thing, accept they couch it in different terms , no public transportation no jobs. In the end no one wants these people, and that’s a fact.

  161. No One says:

    I can’t believe it, Wayne NJ made it into US News’ top 10 “Best Places to Live” list for 2022!
    https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live
    Now somebody’s never going to shut up about NJ’s superiority.

  162. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Everyone hates on nj. What I don’t get, how do you explain the population density if it is such a horrible place to live?

    How can it be the most densely populated state in the country if no one wants to live here. 🤔

  163. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You want to take them in? After how many fights I saw today, no thanks. Worked too hard to have to deal with that when I get home. F that.

    “In the end no one wants these people, and that’s a fact.”

  164. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “If you play the hand dealt to you right, you could come out of this meltdown filthy rich homies. Don’t fuck it up.”

    https://twitter.com/inartecarlodoss/status/1526628285261697025?s=21&t=THFyvbocirVGdwqNC9OrDg

  165. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…yup. I said that. His twitter poll was nothing more than a genius move to unload his position. Think twitter was the same move. Now he wants to back out after selling tesla holdings…he’s smart, that’s for sure.

    “I’m old enough to remember Elon Musk asking the public whether he should sell core holdings and the people loved him for it.”

  166. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, some porn for you.

    https://twitter.com/newslambert/status/1523785458928340992?s=21&t=THFyvbocirVGdwqNC9OrDg

    Jcer, what you spoke about.

    “The housing market is very risky in Austin, Pheonix, and Boise

    Among major MSAs – Vegas took the longest to recover post ‘08

    Cities with limitless land availability can face massive corrections”

    “That’s true. I guess the suburbs of cities in Texas can expand endlessly.

    Beyond a point though, I’m not sure how far from airports and downtown becomes too far.

    Texas should just build up smaller cities located along major trade lines like Tyler, Waco, etc.”

  167. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “$ARKK should buy call options on $SARK as a hedge.”

  168. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Esp with housing…

    “The best time to invest is when no one wants to invest”

  169. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Walmart’s biggest one day decline in two decades.

    If only there was a sign human history’s biggest consumption binge is over.”

  170. Bystander says:

    3b,

    That’s the fallacy. Whites think blacks want to live in suburbs with white people. Black people want safer communities around other black people. They should ban guns and sell legal weed only in inner cities. Licenses go to black communities first. That would be fantasy plan to give something to inner city.

  171. No One says:

    According to the local idiot, population density proves superiority.
    By this logic, Manilla and Calcutta are even more desirable places to live than NJ.

  172. Ex says:

    Rep. Madison Cawthorn, a freshman Republican who’s been beset by scandal since taking office last year, has been ousted in a heated primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, according to a race call from The Associated Press.

    Cawthorn lost to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who had received the backing of some Republicans who had tired of Cawthorn’s controversies.

    As of the AP race call, Edwards had received more than 33% of the vote, to Cawthorn’s nearly 32% of the vote. In North Carolina, a winner just needs to cross a 30% threshold in order to avoid a July runoff election.

    The result is a stunning defeat for Cawthorn, who is a fervent supporter of former President Donald Trump — and who had Trump’s endorsement.

    Bahahahahahaha Bahahahahahaha Bahahahahahaha

  173. Juice Box says:

    Did Elon just cancel Twitter’s CEO Parag Agrawa?

  174. Ex says:

    Musk said the guy smelled like curry.

  175. Libturd says:

    Watching the Musk rat’s fall is going to be cringeworthy!

  176. Libturd says:

    I hope everyone took advantage of the two-day market correction sabbatical to unload anything you still stubbornly thought had some value.

  177. 3b says:

    Bystander: I don’t know if we can say all Blacks want to live in predominately Black communities. Is that self segregation? And what’s the point of that, when in the same breath people will say there needs to be more diversity in corporate America. Hard to achieve that, if there is no interaction between Blacks and Whites.

  178. 3b says:

    Target getting hit hard this morning.

  179. Juice Box says:

    Eddie how is the pool coming along?

    I uncovered and shocked my pool yesterday, looking to have it up and running by the weekend. So glad I converted my pool to salt. It looks like high chorine prices are here to stay. A small bucket of 3 inch tablets is still north of $100. I picked up four 40lb bags of salt for $28 bucks at Lowes yesterday, and several gallons of pool grade bleach to shock it. A 15 lb bag of baking soda to raise PH is about $14. at All in for the season so far is about $60.

  180. Bystander says:

    3b,

    I don’t think that is different than most groups. Indians live around other Indians. Chinese with Chinese. Irish, Jews, Italians all lived in own areas and many still have urban communities that are exclusively one identiity. More human nature/comfort in numbers. I don’t see overlap with this and offering opportunities in corp America. Where you live should have nothing to do with it.

  181. The Great Pumpkin says:
  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What does that have to do with NJ? Nj has the highest earnings in the nation, not exactly a 3rd world destination.

    High density for a reason….all I can say. These people can move, but choose to live here. So at the end of the day, it is what it is.

    No One says:
    May 17, 2022 at 11:56 pm
    According to the local idiot, population density proves superiority.
    By this logic, Manilla and Calcutta are even more desirable places to live than NJ.

  183. Bystander says:

    Moving on..late entries to the housing bubble are in for rude awakening. The fear is palpable now. I saw this one yesterday with listing comment.

    HIGHEST AND BEST BY SUNDAY MAY 15TH AT 6PM. Quintessential Connecticut Cape with some of its’ 1930’s details intact

    Nice 30s colonial but tons of work needed and near 95. Very noisy road. People paid 600k in 2016 and now want 800k. Nothing done. Realtor tried to strong arm market over weekend. Now what when no one rushes to offer top dollar? Looks foolish. Neighbor up street paid 460K in late 2015 and trying to get 650k for weirdly painted, oddly shaped home with little work done by them. The listing should be labeled as fictional representation by artist with disclaimer to run fo hills if sky is ever this color. Putin is attacking. Seriously WTF?

    https://ibb.co/NYSvJpM

  184. chicagofinance says:

    Walmart, Target, Amazon all whiffed…… Home Depot exceeded numbers, but for a backward reason. Volumes down; ticket prices up.

    Gas might go north of $6/gallon when China reopens.

    I am not doomsaying. My point is simply pay attention.

    I just think the next shoe to drop is layoffs.

    Wildcards? Putin dies…. what does that do?

  185. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Leftist always think they know what other people want and what’s best for them. They just need to the power to control their lives. that’s an endless quest.

  186. chicagofinance says:

    Just to be clear, there is a distinction to be made between contrarian, and merely going against the apparent trend. People have not had their enthusiasm beaten out of them yet. Don’t be impatient.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 17, 2022 at 9:11 pm
    Esp with housing…

    “The best time to invest is when no one wants to invest”

  187. chicagofinance says:

    That Target price action is just incredible. This company is just a stupid retailer. It is not supposed to move like that……

  188. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Totally agree. Patience is a virtue. Demand destruction is inevitable with $6 gas. You don’t have to worry about the FED trying to lower inflation, gas will do it for them. Absolutely destroying demand as we speak.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 18, 2022 at 9:40 am
    Just to be clear, there is a distinction to be made between contrarian, and merely going against the apparent trend. People have not had their enthusiasm beaten out of them yet. Don’t be impatient.

  189. Jim says:

    Best places to live in the states….oops no place in NJ except #86 . TRENTON!!!???!!
    NJ seems to be sinking lower and lower. But we do have the best public unions by a long shot.
    https://www.nj.com/news/2022/05/nj-gets-shafted-in-best-places-to-live-ranking-by-national-website.html

  190. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When no one wants to touch stocks out of disgust and fear, that’s when I’m buying back in with the 401k.

  191. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jim, how long have you lived in NJ? You don’t know by now the amount of hate the rest of the country has for NJ? You will never ever see NJ in those rankings. Come on, they have an Alabama town as no 1? LMFAO. Yes, Alabama is the place you want to raise your family and live. The BEST.

    Jim says:
    May 18, 2022 at 9:51 am
    Best places to live in the states….oops no place in NJ except #86 . TRENTON!!!???!!
    NJ seems to be sinking lower and lower. But we do have the best public unions by a long shot.
    https://www.nj.com/news/2022/05/nj-gets-shafted-in-best-places-to-live-ranking-by-national-website.html

  192. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They don’t have Cali towns. They don’t have towns in Massachusetts, NY (nyc metro), Conn, or Maryland. All top places to live. Instead they bash these places and tell the lemmings that Alabama is the place to be.

  193. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And again, if you are already loaded, send your kid to private school….well then those places can be great. You don’t have to worry about jobs or an established system that improves your quality of life. You are filthy rich and live in a little tiny bubble. You have your gated community for security. You use nothing that a common citizen depends on from govt.

    For avg upper middle class family (professionals with college degrees), better off in the states that I listed above.

  194. 3b says:

    Chgo: Worst performance for Target in 35 years! It’s crazy!!

  195. 3b says:

    Bystander: Yes they do, but not to the extent in Black communities.

  196. Juice Box says:

    re: “I am not doomsaying. My point is simply pay attention.”

    Just remember folks the pandemic bailouts are over. The trillions that were injected into the economy to keep mostly the government on life support are over.

    Case in point the MTA in NYC….16.75 billion in “income” in 2019 from fares, taxes etc, before the pandemic. They were given billions by Congress and well lots of loans too by the Fed for 2020, 2021 and now 2022. Ridership is still down so they have annual billion dollar shortfalls with no end in sight.

    Now the new Mayor is begging people like Jamie Diamon to give up his limo ride down park avenue and take the subway, as he knows without the fares there will have to be drastic cuts.

    “New York Mayor Eric Adams is begging the city’s business leaders, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, to ride the subway to work. Adams is pushing to bring people back to New York offices after years of working from home.

    “We’re going to get him on a train,” Adams told the Financial Times in an interview. “We’re going to get everyone on the train. He understands the need of getting his people back and leading from the front.”

  197. No One says:

    Maybe a paper connecting WFH as the main driver of real estate price rises will be of interest here.
    “What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model of remote work and location choice we argue that this estimate is a lower bound on the aggregate effect. Our results imply a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent increases in housing costs over speculation or financial factors, and that the evolution of remote work is likely to have large effects on the future path of house prices and inflation.”
    nber.org/papers/w30041#fromrss

    However, I’m suspicious of the methodology and thus of the conclusions, so while I think there’s probably some effect from WFH, there were a lot of other things going on that limited supply, drove building costs up, drove financing costs down, drove wealth effect up.

  198. 3b says:

    I think as I said yesterday, the market decided they don’t like Powells plausible/ possible comment.

  199. 3b says:

    No one: I read that article on Marketwatch if it’s the same one, very skinny on analysis and not much meat in the article, read like a supposition.

  200. 3b says:

    Juice: No one wants to be on a train when they worry about getting pushed on the tracks.

    My Brothers big law firm has options to renew on 2 floors at year end, which they are apparently not going to renew. That will be 3 out of the 6 floors they leased prior to the pandemic that they are giving up.

  201. Bystander says:

    Hah, Syracuse NY at #36 on best place to live. Having spent time there for a few years, I would sooner live in Botswana with the elephants. It is a prideful area with some good spots but you are talking a prison of snow and gray for 8 months along with a decaying city on polluted lake that simply relies on university and ‘next big mall’ as its chief employers. They try..real hard but the yocalism is off charts. Marry a girl there and you can never leave..

  202. Phoenix says:

    I don’t think that is different than most groups. Indians live around other Indians. Chinese with Chinese. Irish, Jews, Italians all lived in own areas and many still have urban communities that are exclusively one identiity.

    This all works until money comes into play, then they all turn into zombie green and have no trouble combining identities. That’s when they leave the “community” for the “enclave” of the gated community.

  203. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s an economy man. When people talk about savings from WFH, they are talking about deflation. Aka hurting the growth of our economy. So in the short term, enjoy the savings, in the long-term it will cost you your job. God, people are so short sighted and selfish. Shooting themselves in the leg for the short term gain. Fing idiots.

    I mean what do people think will happen when you don’t leave your house for work? You don’t think there are consequences? Take Apple as a start. These selfish workers at Apple do not realize how much of Apple’s business comes from offices. You know how much money they get from offices renewing products every so often. Apply this to any tech company. Yet, these workers are advocating for hurting their employers business. Do they think they are going to keep getting paid as their employers revenue goes down? Wake the f up before it’s too late. Stop being so short sighted for god’s sake.

    At least I will still have my job…cheers.

    “Now the new Mayor is begging people like Jamie Diamon to give up his limo ride down park avenue and take the subway, as he knows without the fares there will have to be drastic cuts.

    “New York Mayor Eric Adams is begging the city’s business leaders, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, to ride the subway to work. Adams is pushing to bring people back to New York offices after years of working from home.

    “We’re going to get him on a train,” Adams told the Financial Times in an interview. “We’re going to get everyone on the train. He understands the need of getting his people back and leading from the front.””

  204. Phoenix says:

    Target getting hit hard this morning.

    Target paying more for retail employees than hospitals are paying for medical technicians.

  205. Juice Box says:

    TGT – They will come back, they said the freight costs were killing them.

    In other news…

    Mortgages the life blood of housing…..

    MBA Mortgage Applications -11%, vs +2.0%
    – Purchases -11.9%, vs +4.5% last
    – Refis -9.5%, vs -2.0%

    Quote from the MBA vice president of forecasting says it all.

    “General uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, as well as recent stock market volatility, may be causing some households to delay their home search”

    My statement is people are puckering up, but as Chicago Finance said here the enthusiasm has to be BEATEN out of them. When will it be puckered tighter than a ducks ass is the only question you should need answered.

  206. Phoenix says:

    Zero Tolerance. Get cooked alive for going to a rally.

    “The department recently adopted a zero-tolerance policy forbidding such rallies,”

    The footage the shows the unidentified officer deploy his Taser at Barretto, who was on the ground at the time. The shot then sets off a chain reaction causing the gas pump Barretto had been at to explode.

    Police refused to turn over footage of the incident from the officers’ body-cameras, and have yet to identify the deputies involved

    Dirt bike rider, 26, is fighting for his life after being ‘cooked alive’ when he was tasered by deputy while pumping gas: 75% of his body is covered in third-degree burns

  207. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice Box,

    The pool – If any of you remember what I mentioned recently, I have a fiberglass/concrete pool, most likely built somewhere in the 80s. No one knows for sure. Indication is that the company who installed it was Aztec pools who I think, are no longer in business. Anyway, it was coated with epoxy which is the best, most durable coating. It’ll last at least 10 years and longer. The epoxy was starting to “gas” or break down, which results in chalking. Who knows when the pool was last painted.
    It’s sort of like when you’re washing your hands or a paint brush used with a water-based paint. It’s like watered down skim milk when you rub your hands against the surfaces of the pool.

    I finally found a painter that would tackle this job after weeks of searching. The pool is drained halfway, a diver comes in (found him through the pool maintenance guy) and opens the PVC threaded cap as the pool as being pumped out… about half way drained. Failure to open this cap while pool is empty will result in your pool popping out due to hydrostatic pressure. Think of a boat in the water, buoyancy and floatation.

    Once the 1 1/2 inch cap is open, the remaining half of the pool is drained. In my case, ground water was coming up consistently through the open PVC port. It was flowing pretty well. How to get the pool drained and dry now? We screwed in a two foot section of PVC pipe into the port with an elbow, flowing into a 5 gallon bucket with a pump in a bucket and the hose running out to the lawn, about 50 feet away from the pool. Now you pray the pump holds out for a week straight, going on and off every 2 seconds.

    Prep is to power wash and scrub with a citric-based solution, not muriatic acid. When it dries, the surface is stick sanded just enough to scuff the surface for adequate adherence for the epoxy. Day two, the epoxy is applied, first coat, a two part mix, applied with 3/8 inch nap rollers. It’s tacky with minutes, dries within three hours. Day three, another coat is applied, pump is still laboring, three days running now. Now, you need a minimum of 5 days cure time before you fill the pool up.

    The 2nd coat was applied before 11 AM on 2nd paint day so lets consider that day the 1st day since it was bright sun. Or, at least, a half day. Day two for curing was bright sun. Day three was bright sun… pump still going, holding breath. Day four after final application, it was cloudy but surface is still curing. By this time, the surface feels like enamel. Day five, cloudy, showers moving in by evening. No big deal. 9:00 PM on day five, pump stops. That’s seven days pump has been working. Either showers popped the outdoor GFI or pump was overheating. Water begins to pool around the bottom, about a foot of water. I’m not too concerned, I have two small garden pumps and garden hoses that will drain it fast enough to keep it at a foot of water at least as ground water flows in.

    Technically, it’s enough curing time or at least, I have no choice. The foot of water is negligible. Some manufactures call for 7 days of cure time but I had roughly 5 days with 3 days of brilliant sun. The next morning, water level still around a foot. Painter comes back to see how it’s going. We take the pump out, let water begin to fill from ground water but it’ll only rise to about two feet as it “levels” with ground surface water. I throw two garden hoses in, full blast, get the pool to about 5 feet of water. Diving guy comes back, caps the bottom port, pool is filled entirely.

    This process of applying epoxy is a b1tch but an amazing substance. It depends on weather timing, unexpected obstacles, etc. I had the pool guy install a new filter too, it was due. The old one was small and falling apart. I had an electrician come in and replace all wiring and panel box, receptacle, the whole shebang. Pool is open, looks stellar, so much so that a male and female duck keep landing in it. :)

  208. Phoenix says:

    Still wanna buy a home with a less than 3 percent rate-this is how you get it.

    NJ HMFA PFRS

  209. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,
    Too bad they don’t make a pool epoxy that cures with UV light. Zap it and two minutes later it’s ready to fill.

  210. Phoenix says:

    How to get your discounted mortgage. Don’t fret about rates going up, that’s for suckers.

    https://www.thescottsheppardteam.com/blog/police-and-fire

  211. Juice Box says:

    3b – Mayor Eric Adam’s has his work cutout for him, as it’s a madhouse down in the subway, just last month 29 people blown up and 10 people shot in only one incident by a madman wearing a construction outfit. Major felonies in the NYC subways alone are up 70% this year, it’s a huge jump in all kinds of violent and nonviolent crimes.

  212. The Great Pumpkin says:

    ““Every dollar you’ve got to treat as if that’s the last dollar you may have,” he said.

    Matt Schulman, CEO of software startup Pave, said his investors are scrutinizing gross margins in a way they hadn’t before. Pave, which helps employers develop compensation plans and discuss them with employees, has repositioned itself from a service to help firms with hiring to one that helps companies retain employees, he said. There have been too many hiring freezes for the previous strategy to make sense.

    Mr. Schulman recently made a list of 15 potential ways to cut spending. One was to do more hiring in cheaper regions such as Latin America.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-tech-startups-the-party-is-over-11652710330?mod=tech_listb_pos3

  213. Bystander says:

    So now delusional Blumpkin is trying to take a victory lap on tech bubble bursting leading to struggles with job market and NYC? Placing blame on WFH? Here’s a hint – the CEO could give a sh&t if in office or WFH. You are an expense. You either have a manger sticking up for your work or not. Even if they do, it might not be enough. Fed helicopter money drying up. Businesses not wanting to pay high rates. Real estate bubble off charts. You have simply been fooled into believing that this time will be different. Each time a house goes up 50-60% with taxes rising as well, it has been a death nail into coffin. Let me stress again – NYC is sucking wind bc businesses don’t want to pay wages to keep up with CoL. It is all coming home now. The great resignation was not so great for NYC. It was people leaving corp jobs for flimsy start-ups that will collapse now. Hate to be in NYC real estate.

  214. BRT says:

    Jim,

    basically the last 3 times I’ve been in Trenton, it was near gunfire.

    1st time: Lunch at Delorenzo’s on Hudson. Guy shot in the alley next door. Didn’t find out until the next day in the news though.

    2nd time: Leaving courthouse after lawsuit against my former landlord. Turning down the street, I could see the anger building by the people there. 5 minutes later apparently, murder of some reality star’s kid

    3rd time: Going to the hospital to visit MIL after nasty fall down the stairs. As I pull in the lot with my kids, it’s swarming with cops. They lockdown the hospitals as they being in the live victims. They were wheeling a gunshot victim in. He was shot while driving along the highway near the Trenton Thunder stadium.

    Every business that was viable has fled to Hamilton. Trenton is probably the worst place to live in NJ at this point.

  215. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    I feel like I should send you some edibles. Cover still on my pool. Fingers crossed as taking it off today.

  216. No One says:

    Speaking of employees running a company into the ground while treating it like a honey pot, if this video is even 25% representative of Twitter, there are a huge number of people they should fire. Sounds like the inmates are running the asylum. I’ll bet at the least there are some departments run like this. Especially the DEI department, which I’ll wager is among their fastest growing.
    https://nypost.com/2022/05/17/twitter-engineer-says-commie-staff-censors-the-right/

  217. Bystander says:

    Meanwhile, on the ground at current IB, our new app has been failing for a month since launch. My boss consumed 4 hours a day. Business completely POed. Seems to be iss with workflow vendor software (newly selected by our CTO as strategic) They are not helping much. Random up and down. Serious regulatory and reputational issues if this does not work. Oh well, who cares..outsource work, pay cheaply and slam into prod.

  218. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NYC is always the canary in the coal mine. What NYC and SF have been experiencing was the top of the cycle…they are always early, and they are always first to rebound. Workers making demands on where they want to work and when they want to work was the biggest sign of this cycle’s bubble. That’s how big this bubble was, workers dictating to owners. When does that happen? Going to be a brutal fallout.

    Just remember, it’s a cleansing and the sun will rise again. It sucks when the bubble pops and the cycle ends, but it creates massive opportunities for those willing to take advantage.

    “The great resignation was not so great for NYC. It was people leaving corp jobs for flimsy start-ups that will collapse now. Hate to be in NYC real estate.”

  219. Libturd says:

    “They don’t have Cali towns. They don’t have towns in Massachusetts, NY (nyc metro), Conn, or Maryland. All top places to live. Instead they bash these places and tell the lemmings that Alabama is the place to be.”

    They don’t have insane property taxes in Alabama. As a matter of fact, they are the second lowest in the country. Guess what Mass, NY, Conn, Maryland and NJ all have in common?

    BTW, I’ve been to Hunstville twice for business. Many of the smartest people in America live there due to the space program. As they retire from NASA, they create a lot of high tech businesses that require locals to support. For example, the moment the SEC required electronic filing of all business reports, some ex-astronauts determined a way to cull all of the financial information from these reports to provide handicapping stats to Wall Street. Again. Pumps is completely un-self-aware. Hunstville is a charming little city too. It’s right up against the foothills of the Appalachians and it’s an easy drive to Atlanta or Nashville. Quite honestly, it probably deserves that ranking.

  220. Phoenix says:

    Redstone is in Huntsville as well. Govt military base=money.

  221. leftwing says:

    “You are right that most things have shared blame. This ain’t one of them. We took away alcohol for over a decade. If gun deaths don’t come down then you get gun back..deal?”

    And that Amendment was repealed, as you noted, years later as having been a rather large mistake.

    It’s a pretty big deal to amend the Constitution, even bigger to re-amend to undo something….and you want to go down that road again?

    You don’t need some longitudinal Constitutional study involving guns…look at the States with the loosest laws, they have among the lowest rates of homicides. Jurisdictions with tightest laws? Among the highest rates.

    The problem is not the gun. It is the density of sociopaths living in these liberal hellholes who value life at zero. And the random mentally ill person. Which in this case, as many, was flagged beforehand by officials with nothing done and current weapons laws not followed.

    As in that prior school shooting where the kid had pictures of killing in the classroom and a weapon in his bag and authorities put him back in the hallway there was a massive miss here by authorities.

    It’s on them. Not the 99.9% of law abiding gun owning citizens.

    Control your sociopaths and hold your lazy, incompetent officials and law enforcement accountable. Keep your overreaching liberal control freaks and their laws away from me.

  222. Libturd says:

    “I just think the next shoe to drop is layoffs.”

    My company is closing our huge Grove City facility in Ohio. It was announced yesterday at 3pm. Probably 250 to 500 employees.

  223. BRT says:

    I have a friend who grew up in the ghetto of Neptune/Asbury. He went to undergrad Chem and I met him in grad school. When he got his PhD in Chem, he was smart and went into Patent law in Washington DC. He cleaned up, pretty much enough to run his retirement job already. He was always training mma so now he runs a gym where he teaches kids and Law enforcement. He currently resides in Alabama and loves it.

  224. leftwing says:

    Yup, Tony Dwyer at Cannacord is the other equity guy worth listening to…I offer these people up not to follow their specific recommendations but to review their thought processes and analysis…the learn how to fish rather than feed a fish analogy….

    chi, yes adami is good and funny…and delby as well. I also like josh brown who most people think is an arrogant, rude asshole…he does not suffer fools and when someone comes on with their head up their ass he has no problem – rightfully so – calling them out blantantly.

    I have cnbc usually running in the background…the noon show and 5p shows are worthwhile because of their hosts and usually guests…this new 4p show (with the noon host) looks that also maybe worthwhile especially for anyone starting out trying to get a feel for markets.

  225. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Then how come you don’t live there?

    You use an example of the space program. Those people are 1%ers there, give me a break.

    “Pumps is completely un-self-aware. Hunstville is a charming little city too.”

  226. BRT says:

    lol, opened up a costco short this morning.

    ***BREAKING–COSTCO ANNOUNCES PLANS TO RAISE FOOD COURT HOT-DOG PRICES BY $1 DUE TO INFLATION

  227. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Give me a break. Again, why are all the most successful locations in our country high taxed? Even Texas and Florida are now becoming high taxed…how long before they have an income tax.

    “They don’t have insane property taxes in Alabama. As a matter of fact, they are the second lowest in the country. Guess what Mass, NY, Conn, Maryland and NJ all have in common?”

  228. leftwing says:

    “I hope everyone took advantage of the two-day market correction sabbatical to unload anything you still stubbornly thought had some value.”

    I had my best two days of realized since I don’t know when….and then promptly I’m down 2% today nearly all due to one position I put on Monday and didn’t spend enough time fixing yesterday as my kid and I spent the day in the city….

    Play with fire, get burned.

    That was one expensive afternoon….

  229. Libturd says:

    Target is an example of how the pandemic helped the wealthy but fukced the middle and the poor. I rarely ever step into Target. They sell mostly garbage Chinese products and their prices are at a premium to Walmart. So it’s lower quality and higher priced. I see Target essentially as K-Mart with high-end marketing. Admittedly, their marketing and merchandise buyers have a great eye for aesthetics. Sadly, it’s form over function. I am not surprised they are the first major retailer (besides Amazon) to display a showdown. Poorer people are clearly cutting back. Look at Dollar General.

  230. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    Edibles are always welcomed! Good day to take the cover of the pool; cool, nice day. We did my pool a month ago so it’s been open a while. We saw a stretch of dry weather so the painter said, let’s jump on it. I had to coordinate pool guy to drain, diving guy, painter all in a tight window of time. I planned to do this job last spring, then the fall and now finally, this spring. This was a task. The pool guy who uncovers/covers the pool, does filter installs, etc. is a gem! I went through 3 different pool companies over the last 7 years before I found this guy who responds almost the same day you call. I don’t mean who calls you back, I mean who shows up to do a task! People who don’t own pools have no idea the amount of money and time that is involved. Go uncover your pool!! Shock the shit out of it. Who cleans the initial muck out? You or do you have someone come in?

  231. Phoenix says:

    People who don’t own pools have no idea the amount of money and time that is involved.

    Plenty do. And don’t feel its worth the investment.

    If it’s your thing, that’s great. But yeah, many do know just how expensive it is. It’s a luxury. Plenty of people have pools and barely use them.

  232. Libturd says:

    Leftwing,

    I can’t tell you how many times that’s happened to me. It reminds me of the many $20 coffees I’ve purchased in Las Vegas. In the morning, I head down to the casino bar to grab a free coffee. It’s only free if you gamble. Well I play a 99.6% game, so the coffee, in the long run, should cost me only a couple of cents. But in the short run, anything can happen. I’ve had many $100 beers too. Though, once I won $8,000 playing $20 to avoid paying the parking garage charge. :P

    It’s only a matter of time before Crypto dies IMO. That’s the one I really want to see go kerflooey.

    BTW, I haven’t turned on CNBC in at least 5 years. Not once. I find it a detriment to my performance. The vast majority of the hosts are Wall Street butt-kissers and care more about their performance on media than the performance of whatever it is they are hawking. They have pretty much become the voice of momentum plays. It seems to be the only thing they tend to cover.

    I still listen to Bloomberg Radio on occasion. They seem to be less interested in selling products outside of their commercials. They also interview a lot more economists and politicians and a lot less corporate board or exec board types.

    At the end of the day, there’s an awful lot of noise you must silence to invest effectively. The older I get, the more I realize that there is not much new to learn and even less to gain from television.

  233. leftwing says:

    LOL, yeah the hundred dollar glasses of casino Jack….familiar with those, ha.

    Financial news or otherwise, for me the value lies in the quality of guest and host….if either one is incompetent, ingratiating, agenda driven, etc it is pointless….I do like the two hosts’ shows on CNBC I mentioned…good guests, hosts that know their topics, and hosts that challenge good guests…doesn’t necessarily result in specific ideas to follow, but a nice framework. On more than a few occasions i’ll take the other side, but it is the analysis/discussion more important than necessarily their specific conclusion.

  234. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    I’m still working my Intex. I’ve been using Walmart bleach, baking soda, borax, since day one in 2019. It’s all dirt cheap and much easier to control than pool supplies. The only product I can’t find cheap is Cyanuric Acid which is the chlorine stabilizer. It’s still about $5 a pound in powder form and you do need a lot of it. That’s the saltwater advantage.

  235. 3b says:

    Lib: Huntsville is a quaint little town, and Alabama has some great beaches too. My friends who live there, tell me they hope NJ people don’t discover them! Hah hah!! It’s funny some of the most insular and narrow minded people I know are people from the NY metro area. More than a few with the exception of Florida or the Caribbean, have been outside of the NYC metro area, never mind overseas. That to me is shocking! Lots of nice areas with lots of nice people who don’t live in the NYC metro area, and have no desire to.

  236. 3b says:

    WSJ article says this may be the lost decade for stocks.

  237. Bystander says:

    Lib,

    Ocean Job Lot for pool chems. It used to be a gem for 2.99 high concentrate chlorine and cheap(er) stabilizer. It has gone up to 4.50 last summer. If you get promo for crazy deal, you can get 40% put back on gift card.

  238. Libturd says:

    As soon as the FED turns Japanese and buys equities, you will know it’s true.

  239. Libturd says:

    Thanks BY. I’ll look into it.

    I absolutely adore my Intex. It’s four feet deep, but 22 feet diameter. With my oversized filter, real skimmer and built in automatic vacuum, it’s virtually non-maintenance. It’s also about a $1500 investment now. This will be our third year, so it’s already cheaper than our community pool membership.

  240. 3b says:

    I’m other news, the something or other is doing something, and the Hurricane season this year is predicted to be the worst since Katrina in 2005.

  241. chicagofinance says:

    Bloomberg Radio and simulcast TV any point from 7AM-10:30AM is valuable. That said, most of it is undistilled and mostly macro in nature. You need to take the raw information and convert it into some kind of action plan.

    Libturd says:
    May 18, 2022 at 12:25 pm
    I still listen to Bloomberg Radio on occasion. They seem to be less interested in selling products outside of their commercials. They also interview a lot more economists and politicians and a lot less corporate board or exec board types.

  242. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know this is directed at me. I travel…just an fyi. No idea why you and others keep inferring that I should get out and see the world outside of nj.

    Alright really important question here. If you think NJ is the worst place in the country to live, why have you spent your only life living here? Why?

    3b says:
    May 18, 2022 at 12:47 pm
    Lib: Huntsville is a quaint little town, and Alabama has some great beaches too. My friends who live there, tell me they hope NJ people don’t discover them! Hah hah!! It’s funny some of the most insular and narrow minded people I know are people from the NY metro area. More than a few with the exception of Florida or the Caribbean, have been outside of the NYC metro area, never mind overseas. That to me is shocking! Lots of nice areas with lots of nice people who don’t live in the NYC metro area, and have no desire to.

  243. OC1 says:

    “You don’t need some longitudinal Constitutional study involving guns…look at the States with the loosest laws, they have among the lowest rates of homicides. Jurisdictions with tightest laws? Among the highest rates.”

    This is totally wrong. While there are outliers like Vermont (loose gun laws/low homicides) and Illinois (strict laws/high homicides) states with the loosest gun laws tend to have the highest homicide rates.

    The top 10 states for homicides (2020 data) are Mississippi (20.5/100,00), Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennesee, Maryland, Illinois, and New Mexico (10.7/100,000).

    Out of the top ten, only Maryland and Illinois have any significant permitting or license requirements. Most of the rest don’t even require a license for concealed carry.

    BTW, “violent” NYC has a homicide rate of 5.5/100,000.

  244. Libturd says:

    https://www.oceanstatejoblot.com/aquamate-stabilizer-and-conditioner-7-lbs/product/18338

    Boom. Next time I am down by Plainfield, I’ll pick up 7 more pounds. That’s the best price I’ve seen by $10 this year. Tell me more about the 40% gift card promo deal, please.

  245. chicagofinance says:

    left: Fast Money was at its height with Ratigan, Adami, Finerman, PNajerian and Mackey. Mackey before his coke fueled meltdown was top shelf.

  246. Libturd says:

    Forget about it. I watched the video.

  247. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Let me clear this up for this blog. When I say nj is an optimum place to raise your family. I am speaking about avgs. Sure, every state has their great communities, but on avg, they are almost nonexistent in places like alabama. For people used to north jersey lifestyle, 99% of Alabama is unlivable. Do they have smart people there…sure…they have the university of alabama. But let’s get real…talking avgs, it is horrible.

    “That to me is shocking! Lots of nice areas with lots of nice people who don’t live in the NYC metro area, and have no desire to.”

  248. BRT says:

    There’s an outpost store in Maine near the New Hampshire border. There is an entire section with guns all over the place. I walked in and there are nothing but guys checking out the action on every gun there unsupervised. My mind was blown.

  249. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Deflation is coming…just like Cathie said. Inventories are growing. Only way to make money in the stock market this decade will be in high growth.

    “Walmart saw 32% inventory growth on 2% sales growth.

    The biggest retailer on planet earth is likely very oversupplied.

    Tell me how that doesn’t lead to mark downs of inventory = DEFLATIONARY

    Wholesale inventories have been signaling this.”

  250. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just think about it….alabama has cheap housing and cheap taxes, yet population density is nothing compared to NJ. Why?

  251. Phoenix says:

    Let Americans have their guns. It’s part of the Constitution for a reason. In fact, it seems today it’s more a reason than ever before.

    Less government is better because too many of them are crooks, paid corporate chodes, or just plain religious freaks.

  252. jmw977 says:

    Lib,
    Ocean State Job Lot is hands down the best place for pool chemicals and supplies. Search the Crazy Deals link on their website. When you buy something that’s on Crazy Deal promo, they issue a Crazy Deal (store credit) for the stipulated amount. Sometimes the Crazy Deal is for the total purchase price. (?!?!) The store credit goes into effect the day after the purchase and never expires. Once or twice a year they offer a Crazy Deal on $100 gift cards – $30 back for every $100 spent. I buy all my pool supplies at OSJL, so the Crazy Deal money always goes to good use.

  253. Phoenix says:

    “Just think about it….alabama has cheap housing and cheap taxes, yet population density is nothing compared to NJ. Why?”

    I don’t know.

    Tell me why.

  254. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I guess one could draw the conclusion that more people want to live in NJ than Alabama. Why? I would imagine better schools, job/business opportunities, access to more things to do, and overall better quality of life in most nj communities.

  255. Phoenix says:

    Tell me more.

  256. Bystander says:

    Lib,

    Become an insider and they email ad each Sunday night like clockwork. It is only a few times a year but need to jump on it as only 1 week. Could be store to store too. Last time it was crazy deal, spend $25 or more and 40% back on GC. Often it is 30% back. I bet one is coming for Father’s day. I loaded up in fall.

  257. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Better yet, tell me why you don’t live in Alabama.

    Phoenix says:
    May 18, 2022 at 3:08 pm
    Tell me more.

  258. Trick says:

    Opinions(not pumps), will the indexes stop at 2/20 numbers or blow past them?

  259. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I said it weeks ago, stay away from politics. Musk is going to destroy himself.

    “In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party.

    But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican.

    Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold … 🍿”

  260. Jim says:

    BRT says:
    May 18, 2022 at 11:17 am
    Every business that was viable has fled to Hamilton. Trenton is probably the worst place to live in NJ at this point.

    Could not agree with you more, maybe US news report is just making fun of NJ. I am pretty sure NJ has the highest taxes on earth. Maybe being #1 in corrupted politicians has something to do with it?? My daughter graduated from college of NJ, yet she stayed away from Trenton .

  261. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Proctor -5% in a day. If that’s not a sign of a crash, then nothing is. I thought it was only chit companies that ark invests in. Indeed, ark was a canary in the coal mine. A whole year early.

  262. chicagofinance says:

    We need to blast through 3,800. Today is very positive. We need a serious flush…..the bigger the better.

  263. chicagofinance says:

    Starts out like a clot story and ends a jj story.

    BRT says:
    May 18, 2022 at 1:46 pm
    There’s an outpost store in Maine near the New Hampshire border. There is an entire section with guns all over the place. I walked in and there are nothing but guys checking out the action on every gun there unsupervised. My mind was blown.

  264. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao.

    “remember when the people who owned $WMT $TGT $COST all laughed at the people that owned crypto,saas,and NFT’s?”

  265. Trick says:

    Any chance it makes it to 3400?

  266. Ex says:

    3:00 betcha more retirees chose AL over NJ.

  267. Trick says:

    Or even 24

  268. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ark performance and Lib’s posts combined to provide me with the courage to exit the 401k 100% before the carnage. Not bad for the village idiot. Thank you, Lib. Thank you, Ark.

  269. Jim says:

    Remember when the resident Troll said he was buying ARKK and then he wasn’t. LOL

  270. chicagofinance says:

    Didn’t see this…… we need to blast through 3,800…. don’t be fooled by a move through 3,800. Any dislocation can move it throughthat level, but there will be huge reaction if we push through 3,800 and stay there…… what you are suggesting is a 30% drop off the all-time-high. It can happen, but I would think we would only touch it……. I’m stating for May 2022 conditions. We don’t have anything that suggests we go there FOR NOW. Today is really Target/Walmart, with broader implications for the U.S. consumer…….

    Trick says:
    May 18, 2022 at 3:17 pm
    Opinions(not pumps), will the indexes stop at 2/20 numbers or blow past them?

  271. Fast Eddie says:

    I just looked at the DOW… hmm.. can slo joe ride identity politics and infanticide to the mid-terms? Is it enough to distract the meager muppets?

  272. 3b says:

    Guggenheim’s CIO at Guggenheim says S&P could fall 45 percent from peak, and NASDAQ 75 percent from its peak. Dreadful summer and fall. Says further one thing is clear, there is no Fed put.

  273. Libturd says:

    Trick,

    Nasdaq will stop falling somewhere between 11K and 7K. With that said, if you were smart enough to have some dry powder, you should scale in somewhere between the two numbers. Personally, I think we’ll see 7K. At this point, the percentage drops on the indexes will all start looking the same. Nasdaq has sold off probably 2/rds of its excesses
    in value (multiple) and the DJIA and S&P500 benefitted from the migration of investment dollars away from the Nasdaq. So considering there is sill SOME technology valuation premium in the Nasdaq and some excess still in the DOW and S&P, they should soon all be moving down in lockstep. So figure top to bottom declines on the Nasdaq of 60 to 75% and around 40-60% on the DOW and S&P500. It’s not an exact science, but you can use the tech crash and the fiscal crisis as measures. Of course, the FED hadn’t emptied it’s chamber ahead of those crisis’ like it did this time. Additionally, the market wasn’t filled with complete sucker bullsh1t like NFTs and Crypto and blockchain. We are probably between the fear and capitulation stage of the market psychosis. Save some coin for despair. You’ll know we are there when people start talking about the rocky foundations of the stock market and the Central Banks themselves, requiring major reforms. The future will look bleak and there will be empty billboards and storefronts. Putting your hard earned money into these failing companies will give you the same feeling that you get as writing the check for your offspring’s political science or liberal arts degree. That’s, when you know you are near the bottom.

  274. 3b says:

    I have been saying the Fed put is gone. Have to clean up the excess.

  275. Phoenix says:

    Better yet, tell me why you don’t live in Alabama.

    Because I would have to give up custody of my child to live there. Or anywhere else-other than NJ.

  276. Trick says:

    Thanks Lib and Chi, that is kind of why I was looking at the 2/20 date, Nasdaq in the 9’s, S&P low 3’s and Dow 29. Just was sure if it could/would go further.

  277. Libturd says:

    Trick,

    No one really knows. But I came up with those numbers last year. Not now. Now is just confirmation.

    The only thing that I do know is that this was caused by the stimulus laid on top of all of that government debt. The United States is not THAT exceptional. As a matter of fact, combine our poor performance with Covid with the insurrection, two moronic presidents and a gun-infested crime wave that shows no signs of slowing and I think we have lost a lot of respect in the Western world. Selfishness is pervasive. Hopefully we can return to greater civility and a true caring for our neighbors. I seriously doubt it.

  278. MAGA says:

    What c
    Conservative for NJ these people are not.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/far-right-idaho_n_628277e2e4b0c84db7282bd6?29e

    A radical GOP faction, in open alliance with extremists, is seizing power and targeting its opponents with cruelty. Some wonder: Is it time to leave?

    IDAHO — White nationalist Vincent James Foxx had a new video for his nearly 70,000 subscribers on BitChute, one of the few tech platforms that hasn’t banned him. On Feb. 16, he appeared wearing a baseball hat emblazoned with the state’s outline tilted on its side so that it resembled a pistol.

    “We are going to take over this state,” Foxx declared. “We have a great large group of people, and that group is growing. A true, actual right-wing takeover is happening right now in the state of Idaho. And there’s nothing that these people can do about it. So if you’re a legislator here, either get in line, or get out of the way.”

    He is one of many far-right activists who have flocked to Idaho in recent years, where a large and growing radical MAGA faction in the state’s Republican Party has openly allied itself with extremists to a shocking extent, even for the Trump era. This faction is accruing more and more power in Boise, the state capital: Imagine a statehouse full of Marjorie Taylor Greenes and Steve Kings. At the local level, they have seized seats on school boards and county commissions at a fast clip.

    They’ve accomplished this, in part, by targeting their opponents with frightening cruelty and harassment, embracing a strategy called “confrontational politics,” which has helped drive more moderate officials across the state to resign or retire.

  279. 3b says:

    Lib: That’s a big wish list. I don’t see it, in fact we are not moving forward , but going backwards and getting worse in many respects. It will be interesting to say the least when it all shakes out.

  280. Boomer Remover says:

    Bridgewater Associates has a good 15 minute piece on its YouTube channel. It’s a discussion from Bloomberg WallStreet week about fed/inflation with Bob Prince and Ed Hyman.

    h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNWgLv35nNc

  281. leftwing says:

    “While there are outliers like Vermont (loose gun laws/low homicides) and Illinois (strict laws/high homicides) states with the loosest gun laws tend to have the highest homicide rates.”

    Eh, my stats are different, I’ll need time to peel back can’t do it now but will.

    For example I’m seeing Alaska with gun ownership of 60+% having a homicide rate of 2.7 which is the same homicide rate as NY and NJ (each of which has gun ownership of 10-11%).

    If you’re telling me NYC is 5.5 there are only two jurisdictions I see higher….Louisiana (c.8) and DC (c.17).

    Also, if NYC is 5.5 and I’m seeing NYS at 2.7 which would imply that NYS ex-NYC (being about 60% of population) at 1.0 or less. So…..

    When I shoot with my friend from the UES it is literally illegal for him to take his double barrel break action (ie, not even a semi) antique Holland & Holland shotgun out of Manhattan (5.5 gun murder rate) to Upstate NY (1.0 murder rate) while….

    A few years back we purchased a break action shotgun for my son upstate at a Walmart, took all of five minutes which we killed picking some ammo off the shelves. Walked out to the parking lot gun in hand and armful of ammo where an elderly woman smiled at us and asked nicely, “oh, his first gun?”.

    Yeah, it’s all about the guns. Right……

    Need to reconcile the numbers.

  282. RentL0rd says:

    Boomer Remover, basically these smart brains from Bridgewater and Evercore are saying they don’t have a clue WTF is going to happen next.

  283. BRT says:

    What’s funny is, nobody acknowledges that no one is abiding by gun laws in these uber dangerous inner cities. When the cops roll down the block in Trenton, everyone on the street tosses their gun, whether it’s for protection, or for committing crimes.

  284. Phoenix says:

    Freedom isn’t free:

    “There is a real risk the price could reach $6+ a gallon by August,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global oil and commodities research at JPMorgan, told CNN in an email on Tuesday.

  285. leftwing says:

    Trick, nobody knows but advice you get from chi and lib is solid.

    Re: the horizontal line you draw at 2/2020 I posted on this a couple weeks back.

    My general thesis when looking at price re: this line is that…

    Any spec company needs to justify why that line will not be long term resistance for their share price going forward, ie. they will blow through that level and (on a case by case basis of course) take a very long time to get back there, if ever.

    Any ‘real’ company can begin by looking at that line as a strong level of support (on a case by case basis of course) and may find a floor there.

    The 30,000 ft question for any equity regarding this line for me is this….if you transport yourself back to that date you will recall we had highly favorable economic conditions (rates and GDP), highly favorable valuations (earnings multiples), highly favorable market conditions (literally anyone could IPO), QE and not QT, yet the stock market was already starting to show signs it may be rolling before COVID and the relative economic outlook was ambiguous.

    So….for any equity you are considering, how do those factors compare today vs. then for that position?

    If worse, why should it not blow through that line? If better, that line can be your floor.

    On that measure it was an easy call that HOOD will be a take under for a few billion dollars (97% down), same for the likes of PTON, and that ARKK will take more than a decade, if ever, to see its ATH.

    Hard for me to talk indices because this market is unique in the violence and rotation of moves – up and down – by sector. It really is a sector by sector, company by company analysis….doesn’t mean you can’t use that line for indices though for technicals/price action.

    GL

  286. leftwing says:

    Also, and I hesitate to type this because I don’t want to sound too bearish (I am in fact bearish over the near term but there will be violent moves up and I don’t want to be responsible for someone ‘missing’ a bear market rally as they are often swift and strong….)

    Don’t forget that the Fed did a final push on rates in late 2019, reversing course on the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), ceasing increases and actually loosening, thereby pumping even crazier amounts of liquidity into the market.

    As a result the SPX ran up from about 3000 or so in Oct 2019 (ATH) to 3400 in Feb 2020 (new ATH).

    So that 2/2020 line you are evaluating not only had all the macro factors behind it I discussed above but also a steroidal shot in the arm of funds by the Fed feeding a 10% increase in share prices over a matter of months….

    Where are we today relative to those conditions? Where are share prices? One thing I know….

    Toto, we’re not in Kansas any longer….

  287. The Great Pumpkin says:

    More evidence of the bubble. Wonder how long before this guy is broke. No. 1 broker in ATL was working remotely from Florida. Lmao. That says it all. What kind of investors are these? Who takes buy recommendations from a realtor who has never seen the house that they are telling you to buy. Wild.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/atlantas-no-1-broker-bought-homes-for-big-investors-from-600-miles-away-11652779803?mod=djemRealEstate_h

  288. 3b says:

    JP Morgan says may see 6.00 gas by end of summer.

  289. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know what the steroid shot was…trump’s corporate tax giveaway to the rich. That’s a huge dose of stimulus.

    “steroidal shot in the arm of funds by the Fed feeding a 10% increase in share prices over a matter of months….”

  290. Libturd says:

    Leftwing,

    I was busy at work today, so couldn’t take the time to describe it like you did. If Inhad the time, I would have said precisely the same thing. There are always headwinds and tailwinds. The tailwinds from 20212 to 2020 were so incredibly strong. I was 100% in large cap growth for 95% of the time. My returns were mind boggling. Especially during the Trump years! It’s why my fingers got itchy in the December to remember and I nearly blew it by scaling out of the market for a few weeks. Of course, the moment the Fed pulled the plug on stopping QE and then lowering interest rates, I knew the game was back on. But I knew it would be short-lived and we would pay the price dearly for it. So at the first signs of inflation and movement in the ten year, I moved back to powder. I’m still powder and I will continue to be at least 50% dry until about 9k on the Nasdaq. I’ll try to scale the rest in between 7 and 9, but if I’m wrong, I’m good getting back in between 9 and 11 if inflation tempers. Though, my magic eight ball says we still got a lot more to go.

  291. Boomer Remover says:

    There are two types of Bridgewater clips, things from other places where it’s an interview of sorts, and their internal monthly discussion between execs of Bridgewater. I find the monthlies have substance, but this too was better than par.

  292. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Over the last 5 days, $ARKK is outperforming $QQQ by 12.2%. 5 days doesn’t exactly reverse a trend but that’s a bit of a spread for 1 week.”

  293. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Poor nations are f’ed.

    “We are just beginning to convulse due to the calamity of explosive food prices. Natural gas prices have almost tripled local fertilizer prices around the globe and diesel fuel for farm equipment is becoming unavailable.Our world is about to enter into the darkness of famine”

  294. JCer says:

    The gun laws are pointless, no matter how strict criminals will always get illegal guns. This is what no democrat will admit, in places like Hudson county lots of people have illegal guns. Realistically hunting rifles will always be legal, gun control is a futile fight, arbitrary regulations will always be defeated. The cat is out of the bag and it isn’t going back in. The narrative from the left is nonsensical, the guns are out there(lots and lots of them) and you aren’t getting them back.

  295. BRT says:

    “Over the last 5 days, $ARKK is outperforming $QQQ by 12.2%. 5 days doesn’t exactly reverse a trend but that’s a bit of a spread for 1 week.”

    5 year time horizon becomes 5 day time horizon

  296. Bystander says:

    JCer,

    What if we don’t manufacture the bullets? Ah, sound liberal thinking..

  297. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Here we go…

    “Walmart and Amazon aren’t seeing a labor shortage — they’ve had too many workers, and now it’s taking a financial toll

    Walmart said it was overstaffed during the most recent quarter, denting profits.
    Amazon faced the same overstaffing issue in its warehouses during the first quarter.
    It’s a unique problem for two of the nation’s largest employers after months of a US labor shortage.”

  298. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It just blows my mind how fast the wind changes..

  299. JCer says:

    bystander “we” don’t produce or decide anything. As long as people want bullets they will be made. This is one of these polarized issues but neither side has a good answer for gun crime.

  300. BRT says:

    if we don’t manufacture bullets, how will we send them to Ukraine?

  301. Ex says:

    10:31 funny Blue Balls.

  302. Chicago says:

    Devo
    Stunningly great. Completely hilarious.
    Treadmills
    Rubber hair.
    Gas Station Uniforms
    Bizarre Spasic Dancing
    Best song ever about masturbation.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xFvAmY3kkO0

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