From CNBC:
Another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve is on the way: Here’s how it may affect you
This week, the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates for the sixth consecutive time to combat inflation, which is still running at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.
The U.S. central bank has already hiked its benchmark short-term rate 3 percentage points since March, including three straight 0.75 percentage point increases ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.
“The impact of what’s been done isn’t fully reflected yet,” said Chester Spatt, professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business and former chief economist of the Securities and Exchange Commission. “Inflation hasn’t come down much so far, in part because these policies take a while to kick in,” he said.
In the meantime, “the impacts on the consumer have created potentially difficult economic circumstances and are likely to get considerably worse as we get more of these rate hikes kicking in,” he added.
The next rate hike, which is widely expected to be the fourth straight 0.75 percentage point increase, will correspond with another rise in the prime rate and immediately send financing costs higher for many types of consumer loans.
“The cumulative effect of rate hikes is what is really going to have an impact on the economy and household budgets,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst.
First
First
When does the depression start?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11375965/Nearly-40-small-businesses-failed-pay-rent-October.html
https://www.alignable.com/forum/rent-delinquency-jumps-7-to-37-in-u-s-in-october?from_topic=polls
Lol, saw a headline this morning about a recession prediction for early 2024.
Early 2024? It’s not even 2023. What’s the point of the call?
Interesting piece from Bloomberg on low-rate lock-in:
Think Homeowners Will Stay Put? Austin Suggests Otherwise
Mortgage rates have nearly tripled and housing affordability has plummeted, but US home prices aren’t really supposed to fall much — at least according to the prevailing narrative. As few buyers as there are, there are too few sellers to drag prices much lower, the optimists say.
Austin, Texas, seems to disagree.
One of the hottest housing markets of the pandemic-era boom, the Texas capital has suddenly experienced a flood of existing-home inventory. The number of listings has jumped to the highest since 2011, and in a metropolitan area that has become accustomed to cycling through inventory in less than a month, it now takes more than three, according to data from Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center.
Austin is a unique case, of course, but it shows that the “lock-in effect” may not be the ironclad defense against home-price declines that some investors and homeowners think it is. As the thinking goes, homeowners aren’t supposed to willingly part with their below-3% 30-year mortgages when they would have to turn around and replace them with new home loans that carry interest rates above 7%. That’s true of the typical young family that may have been on the cusp of upsizing, but it’s not a hard-and-fast rule that applies to the entire country.
Got a letter yesterday that my insurance will no longer cover my asthma meds starting Jan 1 2023 and gave me 2 alternatives. Gotta love the US health industry. Bean counters get to override doctor’s decisions.
My allergist prescribed new meds, insurance denied them, prior auth. Finally got prior auth, insurance paid one month, said I needed to switch to online, which required me to physically pick up a new prescription, scan/submit it in. Why bother. I don’t take allergy meds in the winter anyway. One of the meds was a combination of two drugs, one of which is now OTC (Astepro), so I just bought that and added it. Honestly, easier than wasting the time it takes.
Complexity and frustration is by design.
Eeek
LONDON—The U.K. is about to sustain the biggest shock to its housing market since the 2008 financial crisis, economists say, with hundreds of thousands of British homeowners about to see monthly mortgage payments soar in the coming months.
The U.K. is vulnerable to rising mortgage rates because unlike in the U.S., where the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage prevails and is typically backstopped by government-backed lenders, most mortgages carry rates that reset after two or five years.
Fixed interest rates expire on about 2.4 million mortgages—out of 8.4 million total in the U.K.—in the second half of this year and through next year, according to UK Finance, a trade group. A similar dynamic is also playing out in European countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain.
Save on Rx products:
https://www.markcubancostplusdrugcompany.com/
From Gothamist:
NYC’s pay transparency law takes effect this week: Here’s what you need to know
Starting Tuesday, most employers in New York City will be required by law to post salary minimums and maximums in any open job posting.
Advocates are championing the measure as a way to take aim at longstanding pay discrepancies between men and women and between white workers and workers of color. Beverly Neufeld, president and founder of PowHer, which advocated for the bill’s passage, calls it a game changer for job seekers.
“The [salary] information that was being held very tightly by employers is now out in the open,” she said. “It almost creates a power sharing relationship with potential employees. That shift is gonna be uncomfortable and maybe difficult in the beginning.”
There is a very curious privacy implication here, since you will in many cases be able to work backward and have a good idea of someone’s salary based on their title. I’m sure data brokers are salivating over the possibility of getting access to better wage data.
Personally, I think the wage bands that will be posted are going to be so wide as to be nearly meaningless. If this becomes more widespread, companies are going to simply start consolidating titles/positions. Job descriptions become far more generic. Wait until big employers just start consolidating all lower-level positions into a generic “Associate” job description and title.
Grim,
I don’t know how many games that employers can play with 3.5% unemployment. You can’t dull it down so that no one has idea on skill, responsibility and competency level. It will be a rough start. Deloitte is already posting roles like below. My guess is that they will post top number as target number. Failing to pay that salary will cause people to reject role. I also believe that they will turn to exec recruiting firms to avoid disclosure.
Project Manager, Digital Regulatory Reporting
$90,000/yr – $215,000/yr · Full-time · Mid-Senior level
Re. Pay Transparency.
I noticed the salary bands at my company were compressed, essentially removing the tails at the high and low ends.
Looked at job postings for a former employer and noticed the same thing.
I do think this may disincentivize job hopping for equivalent roles…if I see an upper bound that does not have the potential to compensate me for the change, then all else being equal I will be more likely to stay put. Perhaps this will make some of the non-financial elements (company culture, flexibility, etc) more critical.
@Harvard
Fact check:
In a recent admissions cycle there were:
2,000 available slots at Harvard College
8,000 U.S. applicants with perfect GPAs
4,000+ applicants ranked 1st in their high school classes
18,000+ scored 700+ on SAT reading/writing
20,000+ scored 700+ on SAT math
If you were to buy this house a year ago at the price listed, we would be paying $1,000 less in PITI:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/16-fairview-ter-wayne-nj-07470–2006555568
Now factor in monthly groceries, gas, utilities, Graydon and Ellery’s activities and other miscellaneous stuff.
Ouch.
The multi at 38 Christopher sold for 905K. Was listed at 975K. So much for bidding wars. I suppose mine set the new base.
$606 per month with 20% down:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/west-milford/21-pheasant-ln-west-milford-nj-07480–2006571465
I think a few of us should chip in and buy it and use it to party and whatever else we can think of doing. Lol!
Regarding Pay,
Even if the metric does get weighted down by malicious compliance, it is still “something” more than we have now. (Complete silence on how business does salary scale at the employee level.)
For instance, if comparing two jobs and one is 50K to 250K (which I think would get them in trouble based on some of the State laws because of its useless range) but another was 130 to 170 K, I’d personally be spending my time as qualified candidate on the more “realistic” posting. Or at worst case, I would presume if I meet their posted requirements I would at least land in the middle of the range they are offering with range to grow if I present well.
But also importantly, if I’ve been with the company for 15 years and I make 70K but the new job offering posted is 70 K to 160K…. there will be a WTF moment. I’d argue the wage transparency may not help new hires as much as it helps existing employees. I’ve seen some individuals who are being grossly underpaid suddenly receive massive annual and mid year increases in anticipation of the reckoning making its way through the system.
Just how employable are mid level execs in their 40s-50s without a college degree?
Asking for Gary.
Gary,
I’d save a little and cozy up to a Pumpkin in this place.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/1-siesta-dr-wayne-nj-07470–2565784087?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
Wayne is the next Alpine. At least that is what I have been told.
New interest rate for I Bonds set at 6.89 percent.
Per the I Bonds, surprisingly the Treasury added a .4% Fixed rate onto the inflation rate of 6.49%
https://tipswatch.com/
Is it built on pilings?
Libturd says:
November 1, 2022 at 10:09 am
Gary,
I’d save a little and cozy up to a Pumpkin in this place.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/wayne/1-siesta-dr-wayne-nj-07470–2565784087?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
Wayne is the next Alpine. At least that is what I have been told
“Just how employable are mid level execs in their 40s-50s without a college degree?”
iM sMaRt. nOT lIIke EvyBOdy sEz,, i CAn dO thNGs .
Yes Chi.
Made of cinder blocks.
For those keeping score at home. Here’s my chart again. I have no friggin’ clue, but I’m guessin’ the Santa rally ain’t happnin’.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/PQfFj7x7MrgnuzUd9
“The Fed is supposed to be reducing the balance sheet by $95B a month. This is up from $47.5B before September. As the chart below shows, the Fed has only succeeded in meeting or exceeding its goal a single time (August) in 6 months.
In the latest month, the Fed came up 25% short with a taper of only $72B. Even when removing the $10B increase of “Other”, which is a range of other instruments not related to MBS or Treasury, the Fed was still over $12B short of target.”
Hard to have sell-off when Fed won’t let it happen despite interest rate hikes and rhetoric
Grim,
The salaries are posted on any visa applications the company applies for. They have to post the job.
@Harvard
Reminder that 43 percent of white Harvard freshmen in 2019 were athletes, legacies, families of donors or of staff (ALDS). 70% of those white applicants would not have been accepted if they were not ALDS. If the issue is fairness, there is your problem.
https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1587155616614809600
For a frame of reference:
UNITED STATES TREASURY BONDS
1.875%
11/15/51
Issued almost one year ago on 11/15/2021.
If you invested $100,000 back then you would have a security with current bids in the $61,000 area……. ouch
A lot of these supposed strategy based ETFs that would move and position via market conditions held treasuries as if they would choose to pivot at just the right time. They all unknowingly became the equivalent of TLT. I’d say most of them were absolutely useless in hedging anything.
Yeah By,
I see we are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. :P
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
WASHINGTON (AP) — Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday put a temporary hold on the handover of former President Donald Trump’s tax returns to a congressional committee.
Roberts’ order gives the Supreme Court time to weigh the legal issues in Trump’s emergency appeal to the high court, filed Monday.
Without court intervention, the tax returns could have been provided as early as Thursday by the Treasury Department to the Democratic-controlled House Ways and Means Committee.
Roberts gave the committee until Nov. 10 to respond. The chief justice handles emergency appeals from the nation’s capital, where the fight over Trump’s taxes has been going on since 2019.
Lower courts ruled that the committee has broad authority to obtain tax returns and rejected Trump’s claims that it was overstepping.
If Trump can persuade the nation’s highest court to intervene in this case, he could potentially delay a final decision until the start of the next Congress in January. If Republicans recapture control of the House in the fall election, they could drop the records request.
Dear Dems: LOLOLOL!
Remove preferences for Athletes? Who is going to play football etc they have 42 Division teams.
“Personally, I think the wage bands that will be posted are going to be so wide as to be nearly meaningless.”
Likely. Or, since I haven’t read up on the legislation, how are discretionary bonuses/commissions treated? More than a few professions where base while not meaningless is not nearly as relevant…
“I’d argue the wage transparency may not help new hires as much as it helps existing employees. I’ve seen some individuals who are being grossly underpaid suddenly receive massive annual and mid year increases…”
LOL, back to my point from last week, if you’re too incompetent to watch over your own best interests…I guess in the immortal words of Judge Smails, someone’s got to dig the ditches…
US Job Openings Post Surprise Increase, Keeping Pressure on Fed
Vacancies climbed by 437,000 to 10.7 million in September
I guess the market likes this and Biden should be blasted..bc up is down now..
I felt I owed it to them.
leftwing says:
November 1, 2022 at 11:53 am
…I guess in the immortal words of Judge Smails, someone’s got to dig the ditches…
“For those keeping score at home. Here’s my chart again. I have no friggin’ clue, but I’m guessin’ the Santa rally ain’t happnin’…”
Been de-risking going into tomorrow…out of all VIX shorts, just lightened up a bunch of deep OTM puts I wrote on SPY when it was in the 350s…at 50% of maxprofit there with seven months or so to go, take the money and run…took off a funkier SPY long trade that was up, didn’t like the structure and b/e was too high relative to the other SPY positions I have…META marks stung, still there with exposure around 80…fuckin’ Zuck, he wants to obstinate (verb) his fortune into a discounted buy for me, go right ahead I guess….
Otherwise, I’m fairly significantly lightened up…bunch of SPY still, hesitant to step significantly in front of any individual names with both earnings and Fed…probably go dumpster diving after tomorrow, looking for good companies that may have gotten spanked by either or both of the above…
LOL chi….I imagine Powell saying the same thing….
Tomorrow should be fun…interesting how much vol has come out of the market…if in this environment you told me a Fed meeting was tomorrow and an election next week and asked where I thought spot VIX would reside and what the trend was I certainly would not say mid-20s, down a quarter going into both….
Leftwing at 11:53 . . .
In your posts on an employee advocating for his or her compensation, you are asserting that a rational person would be keenly dedicated and aware of how his or her compensation compares to market and to his or her value to the employer.
Any big-picture tips for an employee to do so? I’d imagine something like:
(1) glassdoor and other online resources;
(2) talking about comp with co-workers;
(3) talking comp with similar employees at competitors, and;
(4) gingerly testing the waters with a direct manager to try to get a sense of what kind of comp one could get by asking.
I ask because I am not an employee that advocates for self re comp, but I’d like to be one. I suppose I am pre-disposed to being a team player and don’t know which rules to break in the USA (like, there’s some custom about not discussing comp, but it seems like those “in the know” do do so).
I never discuss my comp. No way, no how, no way. Though, occasionally, when someone asks me about it. I tell them I was dealt a 6,2 off-suit. Gotta pay to see them.
My comps aren’t bad for someone with a 9th grade education. Don’t tell ‘Ex’ though, I don’t want him to know I never finished high school. (◔_◔)
Re. Comp
I have never been shy about asking my boss about where I stand in my salary band in relation to the mid point, and I freely share the same info with my directs.
In my experience, people at the lower end of a given band are there for an objective reason, and it is my job if they report to me to point out the reason so they can either take steps to move up or understand why they are where they are. The thought of giving them a significant pay bump for the sake of “equity”, while trimming the budget to find high performers, troubles me a bit.
But overall I am curious as to why people might think asking about comp is a delicate conversation. It’s literally half of the whole “having a job” deal.
It’s for the children
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11377847/How-radiant-red-food-dye-linked-cancer-lurking-Halloween-baskets-year.html
re: comp
Comparing ones attitudes toward compensation talk at the workplace is meaningless without additional context.
Size of company matters significantly, as does ones financial picture at home. i.e. Can my family afford to be without salary for some period of time if the talks head south, and will there be any implications for asking to have this discussion.
A long time ago, I was at a place where I was asked to backup a coworkers files/computer immediately after a coworker compensation discussion that didn’t lead to anywhere. He was out within four weeks.
I also tend to think there’s a generational divide who views this as adversarial and who views it as one-half of the equation.
Crushed,
God there is so much to write about this… I hope what comes below actually makes sense / helps.
It is illegal for an employer to say you cannot discuss your wages amongst yourselves.
But there is a cultural taboo from long ago that most people will not talk wages amongst each other. Not going to lie, depending on the personalities and the degree of wage disparity it can cause problems. That however is usually because the person you told goes to your common Boss and uses your comp as a metric for why they should be paid more. That does not work and ends up making everyone involved in a sour mood. Most people I have found are respectful and understanding, especially if you help them understand how to advocate for themselves and why your salary wont help them.
Your co-workers compensations are generally useless (again, in my experience) because of a multitude of factors that go into hiring like even just the market at the time they were hired. Also the same title does not mean we do the same things, work the same hours, have the same skills or certificates, or generally add the same value. Your value is essentially how well you sell yourself at time of hire (and subsequent annual adjustments) and, sadly, what it would cost to replace you.
It doesn’t matter what else a specific someone is being paid, what matters is what the market is paying. That is what you could earn yourself, but also what your employer would have to pay (in addition to hiring costs and lost productivity with training, etc.). And that is the comparison to be made against your ask for compensation.
So what you should do?
First step (and often one the hardest to perform honestly and diligently) is compare how much you are paid versus how much value you add. For some jobs that is very easy (sales or production) and for others it is a bit more challenging where market rate is really the only metric you can rely on. An important thing though is you need to consider all overhead associated with your position (benefits… but even just intangible things like the resources you are given like a computer or a desk)
For outside metrics, I would recommend you look at states like Colorado and Washington, soon to be California and New York too, that are required by law to post Job salary information and do a cost of living adjustment from there to your area. Its not a perfect science, but it gives you a fair 3rd party analysis of what people are actually paying.
Another outside metric, I also find the government’s BLS Salary Data is often very helpful too. It is not perfect, and some extrapolation / massaging of that data is required to make it fit from a general category to your needs. But again, it is a free and non-biased 3rd party source of information for a great many jobs broken down by very granularly.
When arguing for raises, the unfortunate fact is you need to be willing to walk / leave, and I think that is really Leftwing’s point.
Playing hardball (and willing to walk for your own benefit) is your power in the negotiation with your employer. You aren’t negotiating if you are unwilling to end negotiations and walk away to a new job; you are just politely asking and hoping they throw you a bone.
Truth be told, the best time to get the biggest bang for your buck in salary negotiations is when you are first hired. Though you are an unknown quantity, I find it’s much easier to get the money on the way in then once you ARE in. I know this sounds counter-intuitive, but a few ounces of self-confidence (not to be confused with ego) and a line in the sand based on your projected true value to the company hiring can go a very long way. Heck, ask for performance goals with a guarantee payout for achievement if the company plays hardball.
Just walking into your supervisor and asking for a raise because Joe Schmo makes 5K more than you will do nothing for you. And if they match it, expect them to either slave-drive you into submission or trap you where you are for a very long time.
Trust me. Get it on your way in. The fact that you’ll get it every year going forward makes it that much more valuable.
In teaching, once you hit the top, they stop asking you to do things, knowing, there’s no illusion of compensation to entice you.
Gary, the Supreme Court will get you a place in Harvard.
You deserve it
Fast Eddie says:
November 1, 2022 at 2:10 pm
My comps aren’t bad for someone with a 9th grade education.
Teachers comp plans are laughable.
But hey a pensions a pension.
Now a reloc package from big pharma or biotech?
That is a thing to behold.
My, my, my.
2:10 if you’re happy I’m happy.