Recession 2023

Posted on November 25, 2022 by grim

From Reuters:

Factbox: World’s biggest banks see global economy slowing more in 2023, with likely U.S. recession

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47 Responses to Recession 2023

  1. grim says:
    November 25, 2022 at 9:18 am

    Really questioning why bother being an Amazon prime member anymore. The level of overpriced crap is now mind boggling. It’s not just overpriced, it’s laughably overpriced.

    We’re past peak Amazon, I’m making the call.

  2. Hold my beer says:
    November 25, 2022 at 9:36 am

    First first

  3. Hold my beer says:
    November 25, 2022 at 9:37 am

    And prime video sucks too. Very few shows worth watching for free.

  4. Chicago says:
    November 25, 2022 at 9:37 am

    CORNELL UNIVERSITY

    (alma mater)

    Far above Cayughoa’s (sp) waters
    There’s an awful smell
    Some say it’s Cayuga’s waters
    We say it’s Cornell

    Sons of bitches, Sons of bastards
    40,000 strong
    40,000 horse’s ***es
    Call themselves Cornell

  5. leftwing says:
    November 25, 2022 at 9:55 am

    Far above a pi phi’s garter,
    high above her knee,
    stands a symbol of her honor,
    her virginity

    once she had it,
    now she’s lost it,
    it is gone for good,
    she goes * on all the brothers,
    like a pi phi should.

    Some damn good misogyny this generation is missing….

  6. Libturd says:
    November 25, 2022 at 10:36 am

    Weakest black Friday offers that I can ever recall. Me thinks the powerful Xmas retail quarter is going to be ugly for earnings. Especially considering that last Xmas had all of that pants-up Pandemic demand.

  7. 3b says:
    November 25, 2022 at 10:41 am

    Lib: I agree. Thought there would be some great offers, instead looks like just a sale day; nothing special.

  9. leftwing says:
    November 25, 2022 at 11:20 am

    “We’re past peak Amazon, I’m making the call.”

    Agree, and I’ll tie in your OP…

    Suggestion for nearer term (through 2023) investing thoughts…look through the ‘common terms’ that everyone uses but for which there is no firm definition (often frustratingly by the users themselves).

    What do I mean?

    Every ‘expert’ talks about recession as if there is some understood meaning of what that entails prospectively as we sit here right now…there isn’t. Even grim’s post above demonstrates four of seven firms have positive US GDP and there is a distinct upward bias in total…yet the headline is ‘likely US recession’.

    CNBC is on in the background in my house now…they are going through ‘technology’ companies specifically FAANG. These are not technology companies…AMZN is a large unprofitable retailer with burgeoning data storage and advertising businesses; META is an advertising platform, no different than Lamar Outdoor except their billboard is a screen rather than a sign; NFLX hasn’t been a technology company since mailing CDs overnight was considered revolutionary, it is a digital broadcast company with a growing studio attached; etc.

    Pivot? Don’t even get me started…does it mean slowing hikes, a pause in hikes, or an actual reversal…who the fuck knows. Most of the time not even the people using the term if you drill down.

    My point? There is still a lot of sideline money out there, a lot of hot money moving in or out on sentiment, and all indications of increased volatility ahead. The sloppier the views driving these decisions the more room there is for you to take advantage of distortions (up and down) to establish positions, if you have a clear vision of specific equities away from the headlines.

    As always it’s about company fundamentals, valuations relative to peers (I can make a case for GOOG/AMZN up or down 25% depending on which companies you comp them to), and valuation relative to the market. Price action, where the stock has traded previously, gives you assistance on entry/exit points and stops for securities you already want to own. If you use price action in the actual longer term investment decision you are leading with your chin…no stock ‘has’ to go somewhere based on where its share price was, and history demonstrates the biggest losers rarely recover to prior levels.

  10. Ex says:
    November 25, 2022 at 11:40 am

    Tech gives (richly) and tech takes away.
    I assume the tech crash and inflation is what is driving
    the latest economic doom forecast. Some are even saying
    this time will be “different”. Whatever that means.
    All I know is the Alexa (Amazon’s ) is annoying, everything is now subscription
    based, and new cars simply have too many alarms to make them safe.

    I’m done. Way past caring. Taking my twenty year old analog Bimmer out for a stroll along Mulholland. Peace be with you all.

  11. Hold my beer says:
    November 25, 2022 at 11:56 am

    Ex

    Did you see car manufacturers are trying out subscription services for car features?

  12. leftwing says:
    November 25, 2022 at 12:01 pm

    With you brother…while my favorite four wheel toy is not with me (six on the floor, no paddles, three pedals, and no top) I just pulled the panels off my car I’m driving to go for a sunshine cruise before the US/Eng game…

  13. leftwing says:
    November 25, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    “Did you see car manufacturers are trying out subscription services for car features?”

    Good, Hopefully they become optional…

    My two favorite cars, referenced above, have none of that bullshit…If you need a camera to parallel park, if you need lights and noise to be aware of another car in your blind spot, and if you can’t make a turn in the dark without your headlights rotating you shouldn’t be driving honestly…

    And that is aside from these features adding an absolutely extraordinary amount to the cost and maintenance (when they break) of a car these days…

    See you guys later

  15. BRT says:
    November 25, 2022 at 2:29 pm

    For a while, I was driving in a Geo Metro. The parts on it were discontinued. I paid $150 for it used. I found a racing team that raced Suzuki swifts that build custom fuel injectors for them to get it working again. Cost me $500. I got another 60k out of that car before I gave it to my sister. No features…not even power windows.

    I really just want to build one of those Shelby Cobra kits. No microchips there either.

  16. Hold my beer says:
    November 25, 2022 at 3:35 pm

    Paid $2.69 a gallon for gas today. Cheapest it’s been in at least 6 months.

  17. 3b says:
    November 25, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    Lib: Thanks for the link. I pretty much agree with his s analysis, and it was well written.

  18. TenPercentForTheBigGuy says:
    November 26, 2022 at 7:56 am

    BREAKING:

    CBS has now confirmed that Lincoln has been shot.

  19. Ex says:
    November 26, 2022 at 8:05 am

    3:35 big run up in prices prior to midterms.
    Cynical move by big oil to defend their turf.

  20. Juice Box says:
    November 26, 2022 at 9:14 am

    Utter madness, that can result in a nuclear weapon accident.Russia is likely removing the nuclear warheads from aging nuclear cruise missiles and firing the now unarmed munitions at Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1596389927733927937

  21. Very Stable Genius says:
    November 26, 2022 at 9:35 am

    At Protests, Guns Are Doing the Talking
    Armed Americans, often pushing a right-wing agenda, are increasingly using open-carry laws to intimidate opponents and shut down debate.

    The New York Times
    By Mike McIntire
    Nov. 26, 2022
    Across the country, openly carrying a gun in public is no longer just an exercise in self-defense — increasingly it is a soapbox for elevating one’s voice and, just as often, quieting someone else’s.

  22. Juice Box says:
    November 26, 2022 at 10:05 am

    Town mailed out property tax assessments this week, lots of people on FB bitching increases added $150k or more. They added $127k to mine. There is no way I am getting $900k in this real estate market, there are several recent comps for around $770k. I have until Jan 15th to file.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 26, 2022 at 10:12 am

    Baby boomers aren’t going to tolerate being put out to pasture.

    That’s the thinking behind an expected surge in development of luxury senior-living communities in dense urban settings.

    Many developers are betting that over the coming decades, more seniors will shun traditional suburban retirement communities and demand to live where there are lots of dining, entertainment and shopping choices nearby. As a result, a plethora of projects, many with rooftop pools, celebrity chefs and spa-style wellness centers, are planned for major U.S. cities.

    “Everybody’s trying to crack the code for what the baby boomers want,” says Beth Burnham Mace, chief economist at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. Fewer than 20 ultra high-end senior living communities exist in downtown urban areas across the country now, she estimates, and predicts that number could triple, or more, in the next several years if projects in the pipeline pan out.

    Because it’s much more expensive to develop senior-living housing in cities than in suburbs, many of these new projects—from independent-living and assisted-living properties to skilled nursing care and memory-care units—are expected to aim at the high end. Some developers are looking at converting unused office buildings and hotels, options increased by pandemic vacancies. They are also betting more seniors will be able to afford luxury housing: Research shows baby boomers, born 1946 through 1964, will drive a rapid expansion in the share of high-income seniors in coming years.

    “There’s an enduring lifestyle commitment among our customer base to remaining in the cities,” says Bryan Cho, Executive Vice President of Related Cos., which recently opened a luxury senior community with Atria Senior Living under the Coterie brand in San Francisco. “Every generation has different tastes. There’s a desire for people to get back together in a post-pandemic world. They want to be connected to culture and family.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-baby-boomers-retire-developers-bet-urban-senior-living-will-take-off-11649516882?reflink=integratedwebview_share

  24. FromRussiaWithSticksStones says:
    November 26, 2022 at 11:19 am

    Juice, It actually makes sense. It reminds me of this https://youtu.be/E47vdhGuRcc

    Nuclear weapons require a lot of maintenance. That is why except very few, most warheads are kept unloaded based on the Defense Condition of the country. I bet you those missiles were already decommissioned and meant for the scrap yard, this is their throwing the kitchen sink moment.

    The moment is armed with the plutonium ball many things need to be done. The warhead has to be cooled, as the fissionable material is hot and release heat. A maintenance clock start ticking where every part in that warhead has to be replaced as the radioactivity breaks down its ability to work. Otherwise the explosive around the warhead that triggers the explosion will not work properly turning it into a dirty bomb, the electronic components will short out impairing guidance, communications,etc.

    Pumps,

    All those high end community will have the same issue – Where is the CHEAP labor that will make it possible. Right now every nursing home, hospital, assisted living care is short of staff, not because there are no people, but because the cheap labor is gone.

    The main competition that those high end community will have is that if you are able to afford it, then you are able to do it private pay in the comfort of your home with reliable people.

    BTW – On Cryptos…

    I love how the Binance guy is trying to be a JP Morgan circa 1900’s financial panic rescuer with his $1Billion fund. What is the make up of that $1B fund, assorted cryptocurrencies? Also they are all trying to prove how they have assets in their balance sheet, but they are not showing liabilities…..

  25. Fast Eddie says:
    November 26, 2022 at 12:29 pm

    Armed Americans, often pushing a right-wing agenda, are increasingly using open-carry laws to intimidate opponents and shut down debate.

    They tried compromising with the anti-Americans, that doesn’t work. So, I guess this is the next step.

  27. Juice Box says:
    November 26, 2022 at 1:10 pm

    re: Binance – It’s a USD-denominated stablecoin they printed and gave to themselves, it’s backed by UST and USD about 21 billion.

    Smoke and mirrors folks, no idea how much this stuff was lent for yield farming etc, aka liabilities. Only real banks should be given the power of fractional reserve lending, as that is backed by the government etc.

  28. BRT says:
    November 26, 2022 at 1:24 pm

    These “proof of reserve” exercises these companies are doing with their crypto remind me of the kid who would flash a wad of ones with a 20 on the outside.

  30. Ex says:
    November 26, 2022 at 1:44 pm

    12:29 if the thought of shooting other people excites you,
    Just remember the Gravy Seal that shot up the gay club recently,
    was disarmed by an unarmed man. Rare heroism.

  31. leftwing says:
    November 26, 2022 at 2:30 pm

    “…to intimidate opponents and shut down debate.”

    Priceless, MSM and especially the NYT talking about shutting down debate through intimidation.

    Re: Mercedes electric, the extra acceleration payments, and kit cars…what I would really want if I’m going serious electric, not just a toss-away driver, is to take a stock electric and modify it to replace the factory battery with a rechargeable and removable standard pack, and then dump the factory software for a very basic mechanical write. May be easier to take a current ICE stock and modify.

    BRT, re: your kit car you’d be chillin’ pulling up to school one of these babies…as everything else up appreciably from what they cost pre-pandemic….

    https://www.backdraftracing.com/rt4b-black-edition/

    If you want a classic, blue with the white stripe or british racing green…drop a 427 side oiler in there and you’re set…

    Hell, there’s the electric build…those guys would likely deliver you a vehicle absent the engine and tranny, throw in your own electrics…

  32. leftwing says:
    November 26, 2022 at 2:31 pm

    Helluva Blue-OSU game going on…

  33. Ex says:
    November 26, 2022 at 3:03 pm

    There are some great kit cars for sale out here. Seems like a thing.

  35. BRT says:
    November 26, 2022 at 9:52 pm


    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    @ScottGottliebMD
    ·
    8m
    China may have left itself no way out: If ruling party relaxes their controls, they’ll face an unprecedented and deadly wave of virus in a population with little pre-existing immunity; if they don’t relax their controls, they’ll face escalating protests

    lol, this isn’t a vote of confidence in vaccine immunity.

  36. Chicago says:
    November 26, 2022 at 10:33 pm

    Left: take your UConn pairwise ranking and stick a frozen apple up your ass.

  37. grim says:
    November 27, 2022 at 6:29 am

    Saw a really nice Caterham 7 for sale for low 20s, was in great shape too. Polished aluminum and nice fresh paint on the nose. Low miles 2.0l Ford crossflow super sport too. Two sets of wheels and tires. That’s in the territory of far poorer condition 7-clones, especially those with bastardized engine setups.

    Also noticed a few really interestingly priced Factory Five Cobras lately,

    Both really incredible weekend drive cars.

  39. Fast Eddie says:
    November 27, 2022 at 8:25 am

    Alyssa Milano “gives back” her Tesla, because she hates the idea that Twitter isn’t one-sided any longer. What did she buy? A Volkswagen… the People’s Car as labeled by Hitler and the Nazis. Liberals are so intelligent. LOL.

    Speaking of intelligent, have you ever seen a more stupid combination of president and vice president? Every time Brandon or Carmella opens their mouths, pure idiocy dribbles from their lips.

  40. BRT says:
    November 27, 2022 at 10:17 am

    As I said, the Tesla cult is now confused. They want to sell their teslas and their stock.

  41. leftwing says:
    November 27, 2022 at 11:06 am

    LOL, you mean the Left cult is confused…tossing people off a platform is fine when content doesn’t conform to their liking, but when content goes neutral they are thrown into a tizzy…which btw raises this thought….

    Any Bergen County liberal want to weigh in on your slave phones? I suspect Apple’s labor supply chain was not an issue as you sipped chardonnay over Thanksgiving while locked down workers who haven’t been paid and can’t leave were throwing barricades and being beaten by batons…because, well, you have the correct virtue signaling signs in your front lawns and the CEO of Apple is, of course, ‘one of us’.

    Not a peep of ‘outrage’ from the MSM on the human rights issue. Gee, I wonder what the coverage would have been if Musk were CEO of Apple and not Cook…

    Fucking hypocrites.

  42. leftwing says:
    November 27, 2022 at 11:16 am

    Grim, Caterhams would need to grow on me…the whole feel is just that overengineered 50s British look…also not a fan of the rectangular roll bars.

    Factory Five is legit. Man, take one of their or Backdraft’s chassis and slide some battery packs through that front nose and trash all the ICE components…the acceleration would be insane….and regarding charging as you say it’s a weekend driver, not like you’re taking your kid to college in that vehicle.

    The only thing you lose, which is not minor, is that deep throated roar of the engine…had a Ford GT years ago under the port a cochere of a relatively well known high end historical establishment. Started the engine, vibrations through your chest, and a snowstorm of decades of paint chips, bird nests, and other detritus come down…wasn’t an issue until a couple valets come running over with clothes to ‘wipe’ it off….

  43. BRT says:
    November 27, 2022 at 12:55 pm

    They really dug themselves a logical hole they cannot escape with the whole “Twitter is a private company that can do whatever it wants” defense of censorship over the past 2 years.

  44. Fast Eddie says:
    November 27, 2022 at 1:22 pm

    U.S. credit card balances surged 15% annually in the third quarter, the highest increase in over 20 years. The report comes on the heels of data released by TransUnion’s Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR) earlier this month, showing bankcard balances hit a record $866 billion during the third quarter.

    People are spending like the world is about to end. I see no one using cash anywhere. Forget points, deals and that rah rah shit, it’s nonsense. Add the interest and people are going deep into the abyss.

  45. leftwing says:
    November 27, 2022 at 4:39 pm

    “They really dug themselves a logical hole they cannot escape with the whole “Twitter is a private company that can do whatever it wants” defense of censorship over the past 2 years.”

    No hole. They will continue to lie to your face, use any double standard, and when you try to call them out on it they will again try to silence you and if that doesn’t work attempt to discredit you by accusing you of various ‘-isms’. Such are the philosophical underpinnings of the Left today.

    Funny, not a single peep on CNBC regarding the reputational issues to Apple of the Foxconn uprising. Discussion of business issues such as supply chain, but no discussion of any social issue on the largest public company held in some form by the large majority of Americans invested in the market.

    Meanwhile, wall-to-wall coverage on CNBC of nothing but social issues on a private social media company that maybe a few dozen Americans own…

    Last week one of their mid-level hosts made a comment on the order of “we’re spending more time on TWTR since it went private than when it was publicly listed” and abruptly stopped, darting his eyes, like ‘did I just say that out loud?’.

    Wake me when the WaPo or NYT get 1/100th of the coverage of TWTR on the financial networks…Fucking hypocrites.

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