From the Jersey Journal:
Jersey City considers barring property owners from selling homes until they replace lead water lines
As the Jersey City Municipality Utility Authority works on removing all lead pipes by 2031, the city council could bar property owners from selling their homes unless their lead water lines have been replaced.
The council will introduce an amended ordinance Monday that would require property owners to have proof that their lead service lines have been replaced to get a certificate of occupancy, certificate of code compliance, and smoke and carbon monoxide detector certificates — all of which are required to for any transfer of ownership of property.
However, JCMUA spokesman Phil Swibinski said the agency responsible for managing the city’s water and sewage systems will work closely with property owners throughout the year-long pipe removal process.
“As areas in the cities are prioritized, there is ample communication and opportunity for special cases, such as upcoming home sales, to be dealt with appropriately,” Swibinski said.
Owners who violate the ordinance could face fines ranging from $100 to $1,000, imprisonment or community service for up to 90 days.
First …after a long weekend
Is anyone else unsettled by the developments in China and their effects on global markets?
Their zero covid strategy is becoming nonsensical. For a country that should seemingly have no issues at all with not only mandatory mass vaccination, but also mass boosters, I don’t get it. Are their vaccines not effective in comparison? Are they seeing more mutations than they are admitting (and death rates are far higher than they are willing to acknowledge)? Admission of a frail elderly population with inadequate medical care? Unwillingness to change strategies and for leadership to admit they were wrong? All of the above?
They are tired of Covid-zero lockdowns, no surprise there. Two days of small protests do not mean much in a big place like china.
The significant decline in 40ft ocean freight rates from China is a huge positive. Don’t believe there are any current backlogs, in fact, many are commenting that overall freight volume has seen a sizable dip in the last month. We’re sitting about 1/5th of the high rate right now, which is basically back to normal. Sounds like some shippers got used to the high prices, and are cutting back sailings to compensate.
Their homegrown vaccine does not work against the latest strains. With cold weather here predictably more people indoors more infections, they actually reported some truth a record number of new cases last week. So mass testing is back along with a new policy of unannounced smaller localized snap lockdowns. They will either continue with draconian lockdowns or learn to live with covid like everyone else. Xi was re-elected he has nothing to fear.
We put off some equipment purchases through covid due to the astronomical freight rates, metals surcharges, and tariffs. Some of those purchases went from “no brainers” to “you’ve lost your mind.” Hard no when a $10k equipment purchase comes back with a $30k price tag.
Interestingly, I saw a lot of folks in my space shift towards repurposing/refitting salvage equipment at a far greater scale. The US whiskey distillers in particular, went from round stainless tanks to using repurposed stainless IBCs (bulk liquid shipping containers) – these square tanks are now the defacto standard, even being included/provided by the most prestigious equipment manufacturers (Vendome Copper for example).
US made equipment no less crazy. Handmade US copper pot still, 500 gallon capacity – $250,000 with a 16 month lead time.
Interesting article on Marketwatch on Chin and food inflation. They are the largest importer of food in the world, with the majority of their population urbanized. According to the author they are contributing to world wide food inflation, and he does not see that changing.
Jersey City would be crazy to attempt to block sales like this in a declining market. Heading into winter? Nobody is going to be tearing up the streets and sidewalks in the middle of winter, give me a break. Come spring, all the contractors doing this kind of work are going to be backlogged. Given the permits required, street opening, etc etc etc. This is complete stupidity, just let the buyer do it.
Was in 99ranch yesterday. The price for drinks and snacks from Taiwan and Japan has doubled in the last year or two. I wonder how much of that was the huge increase in shipping.
Vix 22
Inversion 79 bps
Left walking around with a frozen apple ensconced in his anus.
Discuss
Isn’t this a no cost to the homeowner program? City has licensed plumbers contracted like Newark does and are using government grants to pay for it. Newark’s website says it is no cost and they have replaced 23,186 lines to far with another 18,000 to go.
https://www.newarkleadserviceline.com/replacement
On the Jersey City website they say they estimate 18,000 lead lines and they are going to automatically schedule 1000 replacements a year at a cost of 288 million. That is average $17,000 a house.
Check the donations to the elected city officials probably lots of donations from the local plumbers.
Newark bid them out in bulk, and has expedited the whole process I gather.
Replace 1500 lines at a cost of $10,209,870 average 6667.00 per home.
” The
work includes excavating for a new copper service line, curb stop and box,
installing a new corporation stop (if required), and removing or abandoning
the existing lead or galvanized iron/steel service line. Additional work
includes flushing and testing the copper service line, excavation backfill, soil
erosion and sediment control, traffic control, excess material disposal,
dewatering, shoring, housekeeping, and restoration. ”
https://www.newarkleadserviceline.com/replacement#construction-notices
Any decent cyber Monday deals?
Nobody’s abandoning the lead, 1500 lines worth is decent scrap, even if the workers do it themselves.
Juice. Check dealnews.com
After this latest market rally, few and far between.
Juice Box says:
November 28, 2022 at 9:05 am
Any decent cyber Monday deals?
Read two separate articles this morning where embedded in a recent house purchase decision was the expectation of a refinance when rates come down so it fits into their budget. Who is going to break the news?
The Jersey City, New Jersey-based company crypto firm BlockFi has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey.
In the filing, the company indicated that it had more than 100,000 creditors, with liabilities and assets ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion.
Yeah, but did they replace their lead water lines?
I wonder if they made the payments to the Feds and States or are they a creditor now too? They agreed to pay the SEC and several states $100 Million in Penalties last February, they were selling accounts paying interest on lent crypto assets. That is a no-no in the USA, key here is they weren’t based like FTX in Bahamas or the Cayman Islands like Binance or other offshore casinos.
Won’t be long now as I have been saying. Binance has processed Iranian transactions, and they are actively being looked at by the DOJ. Nobitex and other Iranian exchanges are trading with them according to Chainalysis data. Money laundering is a no-no unless well it’s for the politicians in charge, they want their taste to look the other way.
Looks like BlockFi was maybe the single largest creditor for FTX.
Looking at the redacted FTX docs, BlockFi’s got to be #1 or #2
Lol, have done a lot of work setting up large back-office AML programs. I doubt any of these crypto exchanges have that kind of back end to review transactional level data. I’d bet that even the front-end KYC/KYB processes were lax for acct creation. Hard enough to do this in developed markets like the US alone, how they did this given the number of countries they supported is mindboggling. We’re not talking 100 people here, were talking hundredS for someone like FTX.
Yes they were bailed out with presumably stolen funds from FTX in July. A crypto hedge fund Three Arrows crashed and burned Blockfi and they needed a bailout quick and nobody came along but SBF.
Bag holders are now in the millions, a further collapse will put the remaining 100 million or so crypto kiddies around the world all under water, then it’s back to the salt mines for them…
LOL, chi, keep waving that big red flag in front of me…hey, I very much want them to succeed and celebrate their victories but they are not there yet…and IIRC you were more pessimistic than I regarding the prospects of the UConn game lol…
Anyway, these relative strength algos are what they are, you need to beat the opponents you are supposed to by at least the scores you are supposed to and most critical is beating opponents you aren’t supposed to, ie. those teams ranked higher.
Cornell’s issue is their season doesn’t have great opponents…14 of their remaining games are against lowly ranked opponents like Yale (ranked 61 of 62 clubs), Dartmouth (59), Brown (49), Colgate (45), St Lawrence (42), Princeton (41), AIC (39), RPI (37), SH (36), Union (34), and Clarkson (33). Each of those is a must win for Red just to maintain their current ranking which is still outside looking in. Have no idea if this team can run them 14-0….
So, yeah, big wins against teams ranked ahead of them like Harvard (two games), Quinnipiac (one game), and BU (one game) are key….and MSG was a good start…I just don’t know they can run the table against all these weak teams and if that evens matters. Especially with so few remaining games against high ranked opponents.
Problem is fundamentally that their strength of schedule is so weak this season which is why RSI was implemented in the first place…and is the same reason the top team in the Atlantic Hockey Conference rarely makes the playoffs cut if it weren’t for the automatic conference bid…
Hey I bleed red – lol – and pull for them in good times and bad. But I’m also a realist…
On to more important matters chi….pair trades. Rarely do them, if I do it’s usually in the same silo, eg. long PYPL and short AFRM.
How about…long oil, short AAPL?
Thought being oil is getting to a level where I would start to be bullish anyway and AAPL is still priced with a pretty heavy multiple so downward pressure there….play is around China….if it continues to shit the bed (hard lockdowns like 2020, rampant virus if they open, mass social issues in either case potentially) then AAPL has even more downward pressure and while oil won’t rally there is support…if China gets centered again yes AAPL will get some bump but should also be a great catalyst for oil as well…thoughts?
Top 10 banks/brokerages that have no crypto exposure?
BlockFi filing for anyone interested in lunch time reading
https://pacer-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/109/1094078/118164199368.pdf
Lol! —> Page 8 Line 4
I was right!
Securities & Exchange Commission is on there as a creditor $30 million.
BlockFi founder and ceo is 30 years old?
Let’s see how she did compared to Sam.
re:” compared to Sam.”
4 Billion dollar valuation. Their credit card was issued by Evolve Bank and Trust, instead of cash back or points they gave bitcoin etc. They were fined for the interest bearing offering on loaning crypto by SEC etc, the card was their only business left and it was not worth much nobody bailed them out but SBF, and there may have been some shady stuff going on. It will take forever to know how bad and who got screwed.
Chi, starting to leg into that /CL long and AAPL short…AAPL via options so I don’t get my face ripped off just in case sentiment changes for some reason.
Total crapshoot on macro data this week for you…… so be it…. basically 13 real days of trading until the bullshit patrol shows up. I am too late in the year to fuck around….. I actually have some green 2022 accounts…. very few… at least they pay handsomely…
Here’s to Friday night……. my son’s old track team captain is a freshman. Fish are banned….. people are stocking up on Swedish Fish …..
I love Swedish Fish. Has to be the little ones.
See lots of press on the upcoming recession. I think the markets hit new lows before next earnings season. Cyber Monday is a complete bust this year. The local news outlets will tell you otherwise, but the complete lack of offers in my email boxes tells me everything I need to know.
Ritholtz had a fun piece a few days ago about shitty, unreliable retail data.
Grinch: Ignore Black Friday Retail Forecasts
It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot.
At least, that’s what the statistically likely outcome is.
As we have seen historically, holiday sales forecasts tend to be a reflection of people’s mood at the moment — not an actual measure of intended holiday spending. They are typically wrong by substantial amounts.
I’ve been tracking this nonsense for nearly two decades and it’s been shockingly consistent. Rather than bore you with (yet another) analysis of why the forecasts always seem to get it wrong, you can check out our collection of pre-pandemic Black Friday #Fails and run through the history yourself.
It’s the same every year. The local news reports packed malls and huge online sales numbers. Then the February earnings season reveals the complete opposite. Happens nearly every year, pre-pandemic. I think we are getting a lot closer to back to normal. And you know what? I really don’t miss eating out that much.
Chgo: I believe away from inflation the Fed wants to and is going to get back to normalized rates, so those waiting for a refinance may be waiting a long time.
chi, you going? as you know fish were always banned…i’ve gone to all for most of the past decade or so, the one right before covid still had real fish raining down…
my account is green, had hit ATH around the summer, backed off that but still over that one psychologically important number for me…this trade not a crapshoot, i don’t gamble on stocks unless clearly marked so…this is a measured trade triggered by china…one can look at it as two separate trades, an AAPL short (vert debit spreads) and an oil long (put writes) but for me they’re tied as i believe they will behave differently as the chinese situation evolves and the ‘advantage’ is that one financed the other, and each i would in fact do separately….legging in, let’s see where she goes before adding more
“so those waiting for a refinance may be waiting a long time.”
I think that depends on the depth and the breadth of the coming recession. If the FED somehow manages a soft landing, then you are correct. If it gets ugly and contagion occurs, I would not be surprised if the FED back pedals. It’s one thing to clean house when the economy is booming. It’s another when the economy is faltering. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if prices actually drop on some items during this recession. I’m thinking cars might be the first place to see it.
I am looking for a few gadgets and a new laptop, Chromebook. Clearance should be coming on current gen equipment, right after of CES (Consumer Electronics Show) which starts on Jan 5th.
Apple typically refreshes its laptops once per year in the Fall. Windows PC and Laptops are a few times a year, this time however Intel’s Gen 13 high end i9 new chip will be shipping after CES. Expect clearance then on Gen 12 hardware and any other gadget upgrades announced at CES.
I did see some good deals today on HP’s website, they are trying to get ahead of the clearance rush and what must be a glut of older hardware.
“Fish are banned….. people are stocking up on Swedish Fish …..”
What the heck is all this talk about fish???
Fish…
https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/18570025
We’ve always had very good experiences with HP…across me, kids, business…nice deals, i7 with 4.7GHz i7, 16MB RAM, 512GB SSD laptop at $595 would seem to be hard to beat…or at least not worth the effort expended trying. That’s a ‘today only’….
Left: I would agree subject to the severity of any downturn of course. I see an S&P Global Economist is calling for a mild recession along the lines of -1969/70.
What’s the next crypto hut to get blown over?
As far as Crypto there are billions being withdrawn now from the exchanges. Crypto bros have just figured out not your key not your crypto.
Cronos token and crypto.com are a possibility, FIFA sponsorship and Staples Center in Los Angeles….and then there is Matt Daemon pumping it.
No ideas otherwise.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/28/will-cryptocom-thrive-or-take-a-dive-post-ftx/?sh=119e6ad1671e
Elon now poking Apple.
“When I bought tech down 70% – 90% in 2000, peope said “Are you out of your mind!?” When I bought banks down %70 – 90% in 2008, people said “Are you out of your mind!?” Now I am buying biotech down 70% – 90%, and people are saying “Are you out of your mind!?”. Apparently.”
“I really hope I’m not seeing the best days of Apple fade in real-time. Tim Cook has largely avoided doing a bunch of stupid things. I own Apple products because I don’t think of them. They work. Any phone is basically a commodity at this point. Consumers can be really fickle.”
Dumbing down of America is happening right before our eyes.
“Employers Rethink Need for College Degrees in Tight Labor Market
Google, Delta Air Lines and IBM have reduced requirements for some positions”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-rethink-need-for-college-degrees-in-tight-labor-market-11669432133?reflink=integratedwebview_share
Announcing the Harvard lineup….. the chant is “boring”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83DtZj5Ksls
Nice…always liked that chant with the newspapers in front of faces…right up there with one that doesn’t work anymore with new technology…the whole rink jangling their car keys in unison late in the third when we have a lead, as in “warm up the bus, you’re on your way home”.
Separately just got back from Fresh Market…grabbed three apples, big ones but still just apples. Priced per pound, didn’t see a price sign. Hit the checkout, came up to $9. Three bucks an apple…JFC. I stopped eating peppers when they went from 79 cents a pound (usually two per pound) and started getting priced on a per pepper basis. $2.50. Per pepper. One fucking pepper. Riiiight….
Tim Cook hasn’t developed a game-changing product since he was awarded the chair to fart in. He’s a poster board reader. Anyone on this forum could have been given the role with same current outcome. Apple is banning the Twitter app? Nice. Wait until the Tesla phone is released. I don’t own an Apple product… now I never will.
“Left: I would agree subject to the severity of any downturn of course. I see an S&P Global Economist is calling for a mild recession along the lines of -1969/70.”
You’re overthinking it, it’s a shorter term trade.
If oil is above $70 through Dec 22 (a 73% probability of occurring) then I’m assured to make a little money regardless of what AAPL does.
If oil is above $70 through Dec 22 and AAPL below 140 through Jan 21 (42% probability of occurring) then I make a bucket of money.
The breakeven if both oil and AAPL tank is at $65 for oil (a 9% probability of occurring)…..beneath $65 oil I will lose money.
Draw a bell curve and put vertical lines on it at those at the probabilities of those prices occurring. Color the corresponding areas under the curve red, green, or bright green as above. You’ll see what I did.
I like the trade on its own merits but the kicker for me is my largest long positions are SPY, GOOG, and META which are of course highly correlated with AAPL (outside of Chinese issues). So even without the thesis involving China I am also getting paid – rather than paying – to put on another hedge for my positions which works provided oil doesn’t dip to $65 in the next three weeks. And, recall, the AAPL ‘hedge’ portion runs through Jan 21.
Elon Musk trolling Don Lemon: “Elon Musk could threaten free speech on Twitter by literally allowing people to speak freely.”
Some Karen cow was up in arms over this being misinformation. Someone asked her if she wanted to speak to a manager at Twitter.
LMAO!
7:18 no, what they are realizing is that demographic shifts are happening which means that they need people and have to train them. They also see perfectly intelligent young people who either haven’t the means to attend school or for certain positions will do really well sooner than later. Most of the “order” taker jobs don’t need a degree.
Most sales jobs probably don’t need a college degree.
The problem is that if you are illiterate you are out of luck.
(1)The ability to learn and apply that knowledge is key
(2)Problem solving and the desire to “assist” are huge.
(3)Personality and communications skills are essential.
College can be a great place to develop those skills or acquire new ones.
The push for Junior college is just leveling up high school skills.
IMO, the best source for current deals year round is slickdeals.net. It’s a high traffic forum slash deal site that has its finger on the pulse of current offers. As always, there’s a bunch of junk posted throughout, but use the category filter on top of page to zero in on what matters to you.
Ah yes, the Tesla phone. Of course, yes, right after usable FSD and the end of traffic. I heard about the Tesla phone from my conspiracy minded seventy something year old father. Your Tesla phone is already in the mail, Eddie.
Irrespective of politics, Musk appeals to the same types of folks who are drawn to Trump as a leader figure.
Teaser on CNBC…Cathie Wood predicts market slowdown…..
what? I predict high inflation!