From CNN:
What to expect from Friday’s jobs report
Friday’s closely watched jobs report is expected to show a slowdown in November, with just 200,000 positions added, according to economists polled by Refinitiv.
But while the recent wave of layoffs hitting the tech sector has dominated news cycles and triggered concerns that a larger reckoning may be on the horizon, labor economists say those concerns are overblown.
“All these announcements that you hear: 10,000 [layoffs] here and 10,000 there, are basically a very, very small fraction of the total employment,” said Daniil Manaenkov, an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan.
Despite a slew of deep cutbacks — primarily at tech companies and other firms that scaled up during the pandemic — and fears that this is the calm before the storm, the broader labor market has barely flinched.
“We’ve just not seen those plans bear out to the degree that we expected,” said Julia Pollak, labor economist at employment marketplace ZipRecruiter. “Companies seem to be preparing an escape route, they’re working on their disaster response plans, but they’re preparing for a downturn that hasn’t happened.”
first
It’s all just a cycle…
“Over the last 6 months, the Fund that shorts $ARKK has last half of its Assets including the founder of the Fund who departed the company this week. That Fund is $SARK. That might be a tap on the shoulder for a changing Tide.
Conversely, $ARKK has Positive flows over the same period. The people that bought the top of ARKK are long gone and a new class of bargain buyers are emerging.”
Honda will start US production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2024
1st model based on 2023 CRV.
https://www.engadget.com/honda-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicle-cr-v-us-production-date-171022280.html
The market is going to hand most of it back
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/33/333c15c9a784bd73edeada28a5fa583e.png
Fantastic chart on historic inflation. Look at the last decade.
Here’s another chart supporting my earnings theory (sort of).
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/ed/ede348e03abce45bce4f758f91520daf.png
Chi,
Probably temporary holiday hiring. FED is gonna overshoot.
Pumps
Did you know you have an international fan club?
They’ve made a song about your investment style
https://youtu.be/4vbDFu0PUew
Pumps
They followed it up with one about your posts on this board
https://youtu.be/3-ozQBLitio
That Asian pop stuff may be worse than Menudo.
Lib, to your point on holiday hiring. Went to home depot to pick up a few things for my bathroom on Black Friday, store was the normal crowd yet there were twice as many employees standing around. Weeks before you would be hard pressed to find someone to help you.
I’m seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence of a slowdown in retail. Though the problem with that is, it’s all local. I’ll be in Vegas the next three days. I’ll see what’s going on out there. I’m off strip, so I’ll be down with the people.
That Asian pop stuff may be worse than Menudo.
Boomer talk. Haha.
This is what Gen Z listens to.
And Bad Bunny.
When I heard quick review an hour ago, retail jobs were negative, so that guess is likely not accurate.
Libturd says:
December 2, 2022 at 8:40 am
Chi, Probably temporary holiday hiring. FED is gonna overshoot.
Bad Bunny is worse. But I get it. If you can’t understand the blabber that the rappers are speaking, you might as well dance to Latino music where you also can’t understand the blabber.
Anyone check out how bad Dolly Parton’s constant Botox has damaged her ability to speak and sing. Between periods in that abomination of a Devils game last night, she was doing one of those crusty Hallmark type family shows on NBC. It may have been more cringeworthy than that K-pop.
A friend of mines kid goes to Montclair State, and has a gift packing job at some place in Clifton, it pays 18 bucks an hour, and the kid packs in as many hours as he can. The owners are desperate for people, can’t get enough people. The owners told him he could sleep there if he wanted. The kid is on time presentable and works hard, the owners love him. This is not a holiday type gig, it’s year round. Some of the people hired either quit the first day.
Yellen said on the Colbert show Wed night it was all you landlubbers splurging on retail tchotchkes for your house that caused inflation. I bet her and Colbert had a good laugh over that one while enjoying a lobster and champagne feast at the White House soiree last night.
Juice: Maine lobster that’s being banned, but the special people can still have Maine lobster. The rest of you it’s Bumble Bee Tuna.
3b,
Hah, on your yesterday’s topic, I thought this was hilarious follow-up. No Kingpin mention, for shame. One of best of 90s…perfect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKiGxUWWhFQ
I was only focusing on the past 3 or 4 years.
You guys are showing your age. And anyone who is obsessed with depeche mode has questionable taste.
Juice
So according to Yellen, broken supply chains, crypto, and PPP
Have nothing to do with inflation.
I saw gas for $2.59 a gallon in my area. Why is it dropping after the election?
Good Morning, CIOs. Now here’s a technology story with nary a mention of a tweet or a Tether and set in locales far away from Silicon Valley office parks and Bahamian luxe compounds. It’s a story of heavy machinery and machine learning, third-generation steelworkers and first-generation “digital agents,” an industrial past and…a digital-industrial future.
The Wall Street Journal’s Isabelle Bousquette recently visited two U.S. Steel Corp. operations, six-year-old Big River Steel in Osceola, Ark., and the massive, 110-year-old Gary Works on the shore of Lake Michigan, to find out how their steel-making operations are harnessing cutting-edge tech, including sensors and machine-learning algorithms, to be more productive and competitive.
A tale of two plants. At the newer Big River operation, “an automated crane lifts and lowers 1,000-degree hot steel coils into open squares, using a machine-learning algorithm to calculate the optimal spot for each coil to quickly cool down before it is shipped off,” Ms. Bousquette observes.
Bringing that Big River energy to older operations like Gary Works is not exactly plug-and-play operation, U.S. Steel staff tell the WSJ. Modernization can mean retrofitting older equipment with sensors and cameras. Older mills such as Gary Works also may lack the wireless network capacity to connect sensors, U.S. Steel CIO Steve Bugajski, tells Ms. Bousquette.
Despite challenges, Gary Works is deploying machine-learning algorithms that are designed to make operations more efficient.
“When someone first suggested to me about trying to automate one of our cranes, I was like, ‘No, no, it’s never going to happen,’ … Then you go down there and realize, ‘Oh, it isn’t an impossible thing. You can do it. You can do it safely. Oh, that’s a really good idea. Maybe we should do it.”
— Kevin Burns, a process excellence engineer at Gary Works
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-steel-looks-to-forge-high-tech-future-at-mills-both-new-and-old-11669917727
3B – Supposedly the ropes used on lobster pots are killing a few endangered North Atlantic right whales every year.
The group that complained “Seafood Watch” said in their press release.
“7.7 whales (North Atlantic right whale) per year are dying due to human causes that we know about,” said Sam Wilding, who is the Seafood Watch fisheries program manager and has been involved in creating the new assessments. “5.7 of those are due to fishing entanglement and the other two are due to vessel strikes.”
The fishing grounds for lobster are really just a small area off cape cod bay and are restricted for much of the year. BTW congress voted to give them money to develop rope less lobster traps, there is a solution it seems, but it has not been invented yet. We might be able to save 5 whales a year if we spend 20 Billion and destroy the lobster industry. As far a ship strikes, perhaps they can ban a shipping too……the whales spend their lives going from Florida to Maine so no shipping on the east coast should save at least three of them.
10:32 if one was cynical they’d say that big oil tried to money grab AND simultaneously influence the election.
10:27 I listen to good music not the shit they’re cranking out today zzz
10:10 Farrelly and Cohen brothers!!!!! FTW
chi, not a lot of time, last two days have been coal mine days for me…you can appreciate this though…two ideas…one short term trade, one medium term to play the majority opinion of dip next year…
Backdrop….given where we (SPX) are right now by most measures – fundamental, market calendar like Fed and seasonal factors, and technicals – volatility is wildly underpriced. SPX is literally right at 200 day and dead on the downtrend line…yet spot VIX is below 20…
For anyone long and with how cheap downside move/protection is with the low VIX it’s nearly a free trade…if you’re long you’d be crazy to not put on a structured downside trade (ie, not just long an option). Better if you can be (but don’t necessarily need to be) nimble…I dumped half my trade from yesterday for a nearly 4% gain notwithstanding spot VIX is lower right now than where I put it on, took advantage of the chaos at 8:30a…I’m heading back now to look at what I can do similarly with the /ES to get better liquidity and spreads…worth a look, seriously. Having 50bp moves in Ts and having SPX where she is relative to the factors above while having downside cheaply priced is an asymmetric gimme trade if you are overall long…there is literally nothing better than asymmetric trades, it is what I do if you follow anything I’ve written here over the years…you become the house with a 70%+ win ratio…shit, even Pumps could stop burning wheelbarrows of money with that setup.
Medium term into 1Q next year…if you’re going to play it, play it on the moderate to lower end working consumer…serious cracks appearing there, most recently new uptick in emergency withdrawals from pensions/IRAs…that dam will break first, and is most assured to break relative to other demographics both in time and intensity…if you are going to position new trades for downside into 1Q and thereafter you’ll be better served by focusing on this group than broad indices or even overvalued longer duration stocks (as in you will get a pause in rates if the shit actually hits the fan)…
I’m taking ideas on which companies are most exposed to the $60k-$80k middle America earner with two kids and a dog….will reciprocate with trade ideas…
GL. YMMV.
Hold my beer says:
December 2, 2022 at 10:27 am
You guys are showing your age. And anyone who is obsessed with depeche mode has questionable taste.
https://youtu.be/-wo0VuLTb_U?t=34
“Fantastic chart on historic inflation. Look at the last decade.”
What my eyes first see is that in the modern era we have, for all practical purposes, not experienced deflation.
Good luck Mr. “fuck deceleration, I want actual deflation” Chi….
Turned CNBC off in the background…it is unbearable their coverage of the private company Twitter, both in amount and content…
Might as well run the MSNBC logo on the banner…
And, as an aside, is there any self-awareness among the dozens of guests and hosts on that network all giving advice to the wealthiest man on earth who got that way by successfully breaking every piece of china he’s touched?
Overreach is a narcissistic character flaw. Look for Musk to endure the results of said flaws…stay tuned. His fall will be precipitous.
The owner of United Furniture Industries — which last week fired 2,700 workers through texts and emails while they slept — has disappeared after squabbling with the company’s board and bankers over whether to file for bankruptcy, The Post has learned.
David Belford, a wealthy Ohio businessman, has kept mum since the layoffs of his entire workforce in Mississippi, North Carolina and California in the days before Thanksgiving — despite efforts by lenders and lawyers representing axed workers to reach UFI, according to multiple sources.
“No one has heard from the owner. He’s not returning anyone’s phone calls. It’s such a horrible situation,” one source with knowledge of the situation told The Post.
“Here’s another chart supporting my earnings theory (sort of).”
Fantastic chart. Among the most useful and succinct information presented on this blog over the last couple months. If done by 24 year old he should be at an IB where’s paid six figures and based on that type of analysis and presentation would pull close to a 2x bonus.
Assuming it’s accurate, though…just glanced at it but appears the 14.8 line is wrong, it’s above the 15 mark…
Yellen is like…I know I was wrong on inflation in every prediction I made, but I’m still the expert on this.
““7.7 whales (North Atlantic right whale) per year are dying due to human causes…”
I feel sorry for the whale that just had 0.7 working parts.
“David Belford, a wealthy Ohio businessman, has kept mum since the layoffs of his entire workforce in Mississippi, North Carolina and California in the days before Thanksgiving”
Body will wash up on NoOne’s shores with a self inflicted wound. Lots of midwest opco CEOs in those big overvalued houses.
No one is banning lobster. Whole Foods decided to stop selling Maine Lobsters. They can do what they want, someone may pick up the slack. Why do you hate Capitalism?
Lobsters went to Canada and never came back anyway. Too hot down here.
Ferguson Supply laid off 400 this week, froze all travel, and put a whammy on new product lines and purchases.
Happy Holidays!
Ferguson Supply laid off 400 this week, froze all travel, and put a whammy on new product lines and purchases.
Mommy better be careful should she lose her job at Ferguson and doesn’t buy junior a new VR headset.
https://bit.ly/3H5IPJJ
America marketed it’s gen Z Zoomers into killers when they don’t get the material goods they need for their dopamine fix.
On one hand Yellen said home furnishing drove inflation, and on the other hand the furniture industry in the USA is experiencing a drastic decrease in consumer demand and United Furniture Industries went bankrupt and closed it’s doors. That company announced a reorg and layoffs during the summer because of high inventories and lack of orders.
Latest data says the unemployment rate for the industry doubled in a few months.
https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag337.htm
Assuming it’s accurate, though…just glanced at it but appears the 14.8 line is wrong, it’s above the 15 mark…
Be careful when you over rev that Bimmer….
Yellen is older than a bronteroc.
It is hard to isolate those opportunities, because many businesses that target the lower in consumer get a trade down From above. So their sales remain steady because as they lose customers, they gain others.
Reflexive response would be really bad, full-service chain restaurants.
leftwing says:
December 2, 2022 at 11:06 am
chi, not a lot of time
I’m taking ideas on which companies are most exposed to the $60k-$80k middle America earner with two kids and a dog….will reciprocate with trade ideas…
Left why don’t you also look at businesses that have Sun Belt exposure because that’s where the greatest real estate games have been and might show the first signs of stress
Shitty full service chain restaurants in Arizona and Florida
My favorite is printing money didn’t cause inflation, shutting down the economy did. How do we, shut down the economy? Print money to keep people at home. What came first, the chicken or the egg?
From what I read, the increase in water temp in Maine is what led to a growth in lobster population.
Anyone do a boomer/dollar spreadsheet for Covid?
Just how much each one cost and how much the cost is rising even today?
I did some back of the envelop calculations on the life expectancy of the average incel….
I did some back of the envelop calculations on the life expectancy of the average incel….
How long you think you have left?
“Shitty full service chain restaurants in Arizona and Florida”
CeCe’s Pizza and the Golden Corral?
Time to reincarnate Nixon and his Nixon Shock.
That is how you control inflation.
Like the idea chi of crossing bad RE with bad overpriced food. I’ll look into it and toss in leverage as a screen. Anyone know the shitty food chains? I don’t really frequent any so don’t have a qualitative scale…
RE straight up in bubble areas like Phoenix, Vegas, etc is probably already (over)played…on the other end I may look at something like CPT that actually owns apartments in those areas…those areas will continue to be desirable, ownership purchasing power is in the shitter so rental it is, and the stocks have been dragged down on the back of SFH declines…
Please don’t bid that one up lol. Still doing diligence, need to look at the capital structure.
“Be careful when you over rev that Bimmer….”
Different German convertible for me that should not be run under 3500 :)
left: another idea….. urban tech workers under 35 who are most likely to have invested in crypto. What do they spend their money on? It is not so much investment losses as frozen assets. A good bunch of them don’t realize that even if they were going to get some money back, it isn’t going to be until 2024 or later. They are probably running up the credit cards now it the hopes that they will get some liquidity, but they will have to start capitulating in early 2023….. what do they spend their money on?
Also, the early big tech layoffees are going to smaller companies, but they will get whacked again by April-June 2023. 2023 is going to have big budget cuts. The pipelines are going to evaporate.
I am finding Amazon more and more useless.
3 pack of refrigerator filters cost Amazon $56.10 and on Walmart $33.00
Same brand and free shipping, mind this was the lowest price on Amazon, there is nearly a dozen other sponsored resellers with higher prices for the same product.
Someone has to offset the huge financial abyss of “Alexa”…
Chi,
I’m thinking dumb overpriced entertainment options. From axe-throwing to sports betting. Short Subaru too. Restaurant chains? B-Dubs is terrible and overpriced. I happen to find the Yard House half-way decent, but again, attracts that same crowd. Taking macro issues and investing in the expected outcome is one of my favorite past-times.
Juice,
Walmart +, especially when you get your yearly membership for 1/2 price or less (they often run specials), is the greatest thing going. It reminds me of how great the early days of Ebay and Craig List were. I don’t know how they afford it and the amazing customer service to boot, but I’m exploiting it until the gig is up.
And the quality of the average item is much higher than that at Amazon who would be willing to assign the “Amazon’s Choice” recommendation to a polished turd if there was enough margin in it for them.
B Dubs = buffalo wild wings (according to google?)?
Whole Foods: 365 brand, Hard Cooked Medium Grade A Eggs, 6 eggs $3.79
ShopRite: Bowl & Basket Cage Free Hard-Cooked Peeled, Eggs, 6 Each $3.49
Walmart: Great Value Hard Boiled Eggs, 9.31 oz, 6 Count $1.97
Walmart plus will deliver it or shop it for you for free with (+).
Try it yourself. Pick pretty much any product. Produce and frozen goods will blow your mind. And both are better quality. Try any product.
WF: Nature’s Own Perfectly Crafted Thick Sliced Brioche Style, Bread, 22 Ounce$4.99
SR: Nature’s Own Perfectly Crafted Thick Sliced Brioche Style, Bread, 22 Ounce $4.29
WM: Nature’s Own Perfectly Crafted Thick Sliced Brioche Style, Bread, 22 Ounce $3.12
Leftwing,
Yes, you old fuddy duddy.
LOL, TY.
B-Dubs is private. I’ll find some names.
Ruby Tuesday
Ex says:
December 2, 2022 at 5:32 pm
Ruby Tuesday
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Ruby%20Tuesday
Real nice..
Today, the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, chaired by Rep. James E. Clyburn, released a staff report detailing the poor performance of many financial technology companies (fintechs) in administering the nation’s largest pandemic relief program, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The report details how the investigated companies, despite being tasked with processing PPP applications while screening out those with signs of fraud, abdicated that responsibility—in many cases recklessly—resulting in the approval of large numbers of fraudulent applications.
In May 2021, the Select Subcommittee initiated an investigation into the role of fintech companies Kabbage, Inc. and Bluevine and partner banks Cross River Bank and Celtic Bank in facilitating PPP fraud following public reports they were linked to disproportionate numbers of fraudulent loans. The investigation was expanded in November 2021 to include fintech start-ups Blueacorn PPP, LLC, and Womply, Inc., after an analysis determined significant percentages of PPP loans facilitated by the companies had indicators of fraud.
Chairman Clyburn released the following statement about today’s report:
“As today’s report details, many fintechs, while promising to help disburse billions of Paycheck Protection Program dollars to struggling small businesses efficiently and expeditiously, refused to take adequate steps to detect and prevent fraud despite their clear responsibility to safeguard taxpayer funds. Even as these companies failed in their administration of the program, they nonetheless accrued massive profits from program administration fees, much of which was pocketed by the companies’ owners and executives. On top of the windfall obtained by enabling others to engage in PPP fraud, some of these individuals may have augmented their ill-gotten gains by engaging in PPP fraud themselves.
“We must learn from this inexcusable misconduct to erect guardrails that will help ensure that federal programs—including emergency assistance programs in future crises—are administered more effectively, efficiently, and equitably while keeping waste, fraud, and abuse to an absolute minimum. Based on our initial findings, I have asked the SBA and SBA OIG to conduct further investigation into these companies and pursue all appropriate remedies, and I have informed DOJ that some of our findings may warrant its attention.”
Today’s staff report is entitled “‘We Are Not the Fraud Police’: How Fintechs Facilitated Fraud in the Paycheck Protection Program” and is available in full here. The report reveals the following key findings:
Fintechs and Lenders Observed Significant Fraud in the PPP, Which They Attributed to Program Mismanagement as They Sought to Evade Responsibility
Fintechs and lenders blamed the Trump Administration’s mismanagement of the PPP for the high volume of fraud in the program. In a September 2020 email, fintech Kabbage’s head of policy wrote of the Small Business Administration (SBA): “At the end of the day, it’s the SBA’s shitty rules that created fraud, not [Kabbage].”
In response to an August 2020 SBA email announcing a webinar on preventing PPP fraud, lender Celtic Bank’s President called the Trump Administration’s action “a bit late,” remarking that the “horse has been out of the barn for a while now” with respect to PPP fraud.
Fintechs and lenders looked to avoid taking responsibility for taxpayer money that was lost to fraud. In an internal email obtained by the Select Subcommittee, the CEO of Celtic Bank wrote: “the industry should push hard to make sure the SBA accepts the fraud risk.”
Blueacorn Took Only Minimal Steps to Prevent Fraud in Its Facilitation of Billions of Dollars in PPP Loans, While Abusing the Program to Enrich Its Owners
Fintech Blueacorn received over $1 billion in taxpayer-funded processing fees but spent little on fraud prevention and eligibility verification. Blueacorn transferred nearly $300 million in profits to its owners while only spending $8.6 million—less than one percent of the fees it received for its PPP work—on its fraud prevention program. Blueacorn also gave approximately $666 million to a marketing firm controlled by members of its senior leadership—almost 50 times more than the $13.7 million the fintech spent on eligibility verification to detect fraud. Blueacorn had only “one direct employee who assisted with processing PPP loan applications” for the 1.7 million loans it reviewed.
Blueacorn “almost exclusively relied on third-party companies and contractors” to process PPP loan applications. According to a former employee, Elev8 Advisors “hired at least 30 of [Elev8 Advisors’ owner’s] closest friends and family to work as underwriters submitting PPP loans to the SBA through Blueacorn.” In a text message obtained by the Select Subcommittee, Elev8 Advisor’s owner, Kristen Spencer, made her motivation clear: “We are doing this for the people we hired to make money. Our friends and family. That is where the money is going. And it will be life changing money for anyone who does it.”
Blueacorn loan reviewers reported receiving poor training and being pressured to “push through” PPP loans, even if the reviewers doubted the authenticity of the loan’s supporting documents. One former Blueacorn loan reviewer told the Select Subcommittee that the company’s reviewers were “submitting PPP loans to the SBA the first minute of the first day” of their employment despite having “no formal or informal training on loan underwriting, as well as no training on how to properly identify and report fake government identification such as a driver’s license.” The reviewers were told “the faster the better” and that each loan application review “should take you less than 30 seconds.”
Blueacorn gave priority and less scrutiny to high dollar loans and those identified as “VIPPP” by Blueacorn’s founder. Blueacorn’s owners directed reviewers to prioritize “monster loans [that] will get everyone paid” and created an exclusive category of PPP loans, called “VIPPP” loans. Blueacorn’s owners directed loan reviewers “to prioritize and submit large [“VIPPP”] loans without following protocols that [loan reviewers] had been trained to complete.” While prioritizing “VIPPP” loans, Blueacorn’s owners were dismissive of other loans, writing “delete them,” “who fucking cares,” and “[w]e’re not the first bank to decline [PPP] borrowers who deserve to be funded…they go elsewhere.”
Blueacorn’s founders attempted to improperly charge some PPP applicants. According to their former business partners, Blueacorn founders Nathan Reis and Stephanie Hockridge attempted to directly charge some applicants a 10 percent fee for successfully procuring PPP loans—in violation of SBA rules.
Blueacorn’s founders arranged PPP loans for themselves through Blueacorn, some of which have signs of potential fraud. In addition to likely taking over $120 million in taxpayer-funded PPP processing fees as personal profit, Mr. Reis and Ms. Hockridge received nearly $300,000 in PPP loans, some of which were facilitated by their own company. Applications for these loans—some of which Blueacorn lending partner Capital Plus later demanded be repaid—included supporting documentation with suspicious elements. In one application, Mr. Reis claimed to be an African American and a veteran—both of which appear to be false.
The owners of Elev8 Advisors—Blueacorn’s primary eligibility verification and compliance consultants—received PPP loans for themselves, their businesses, and their family members through Blueacorn’s lending partners. Elev8 Advisors owners Adam Spencer and Kristen Spencer used Blueacorn to secure PPP loans for themselves, their companies, and their family members. In the months after receiving these loans, the Spencers purchased an $8 million mansion in cash and acquired multiple luxury cars. The Spencers’ loan applications also contained suspicious elements, including companies with unusually high profit margins and claims of income that appear unsupported by accompanying documentation. A confidential witness who spoke to the Select Subcommittee said that Mr. Spencer directed at least one family member—who also served as a PPP loan reviewer—to fraudulently apply for a PPP loan for a defunct business through Blueacorn, and later used the funds for home renovations.
fun with….well, I don’t know
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891
Awesome..
Elon gets Matt Taibbi to narrate the election interference in 2020.
I mean Awesome because Taibbi does not appear to be bought and paid for.
Nice chess by Musk…temperature was rising with Apple over app store access before this drop so he does the highly public stroll around the pond with Cook and the starry-eyed ‘there never was any intention by Apple to drop us’ and after establishing that baseline lays this big turd in the middle of the dining table…lol.
No chance now Cook can boot him no matter how much the Left howls; not necessarily the case before the stroll.
Hilarious to watch people flip out on Taibbi. He’s reporting facts….that’s what journalists do.
Chi, not a horrible outcome
“We’re double-checking some facts, so probably start live tweeting in about 40 mins”
So Elon getting a chubby (just like a few in here) over Hunters laptop. At 5PM we were promised the big reveal, then the we are double-checking some facts, now radio silence.
Is it :
A) we forgot we fired all the fact checkers?
B) We can’t post that, its clear slander.
C) Oh Sh1t, it really was a Russian Plant!
B-Dubs went to hell when the the frat bro owners sold out and they dropped the third “W”. Hard to find a weck sandwich outside of Buffalo.
Second location was at Kent State, did a serious amount of under age drinking there in the late 80’s.
Lmao
Rule no 1…never ever bet against musk.
“Why Silicon Valley’s WOKE fear MUSK: Musk is an entrepreneur. He does not need a job or money. He beat BIG BANKS with PAYPAL. He beat DETROIT with TESLA. He beat NASA with SPACEX. And he will beat COMMUNIST censorship with TWITTER. Thank you and GOD bless ELON MUSK.”
Great ending. Explains it all:
https://youtu.be/AIqxfBhlwx0?t=1143
Chicken n pickle has the best fried chicken sandwich I’ve ever had. It is also the largest restaurant I’ve ever been in. It’s the size of a strip mall. Has a huge outdoor seating area with games for kids to play and has another building for playing pickle ball. Only about $2 a person more than chik fil a
It needs so much land I doubt it will ever open one in the NYC area.
https://chickennpickle.com/
Day 7 for the virus. I went to a medi-center yesterday just to have them do a look-see and ensure I’m not missing obvious flags. The Flu and covid tests were negative so whatever you call this virus, it’s kicking my ass. I told them my throat is so sore, every cough or trying to swallow is really painful. No bacterial (strep) infection as of now so hoping that does not happen. Fever-free for almost 2 days now, no good night’s sleep in days. The biggest hurt is the throat thing currently, very painful. When I shake the throat issue, I’ll claim victory.
Get well soon Eddie.
Since hitting a low of 3,577 on 12 October, down 25% since 1 January, the S&P 500 index has rallied by 12% to just over 4,000. The FTSE 100 index has rallied by 11%. It is barely down this year, but still 4% below its May 2018 peak. The yield on the US ten-year Treasury bond has fallen from 4.3% to 3.7% (reflecting a rebound in bond prices); the ten-year gilt yield has slipped from 4.5% to 3%.
Yet plenty of pundits are pessimistic, arguing that the bear market isn’t over yet. Charles Gave of Gavekal says that US inflation has not peaked yet. “Every significant peak in the US rate of inflation has occurred during a recession or just after,” he writes. The real (inflation-adjusted) yield on the ten-year Treasury is deeply negative and “it has almost never been profitable to buy the US stockmarket when real yields were negative”. In addition, “bull markets occur when energy is cheap and getting cheaper”.
Gavekal’s Anatole Kaletsky advises investors to “enjoy the rally while it lasts… [it] will end in a costly reversal”. To push US inflation down close to the 2% target, he argues, will require a serious and protracted recession, caused by interest rates being raised substantially more than markets expect. The alternative, of a 4%-5% inflation rate as “the new normal”, would mean bond yields of 5%-6% and so he is “convinced that the bear market in both bonds and equities has a long way to run”.
Sebastian Lyon, the manager of the £1.8bn Personal Assets Trust, says “this bear market has room to run. Stockmarket falls have been valuation-driven and we have yet to see the fall in profits that would result from a highly probable recession”. He has reduced equity exposure to 28%, the lowest since 2008
Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors, meanwhile, believes that the long-term trend of bond yields, having been downwards for 40 years, is now upwards and that equity markets will continue moving, as they have this year, in the same direction as bond markets.
He expects a recession in which corporate earnings fall next year. This is not priced in: “there’s no sign in the day-to-day price action that earnings disappointments are in the price. Equities don’t normally bottom until the downgrade cycle is virtually over”. Other bears are waiting for a phase of capitulation in which investors panic out of the market, valuations reach very cheap levels and vulture investors, like themselves, can pick up bargains.
Forecasts are becoming more optimistic
Why might these pessimists be wrong? Minack admits that “this is the most forecast recession in history”, which means that companies have had plenty of advance notice to take action to protect earnings, as many have.
This may explain why analysts have been slow to downgrade earnings forecasts. Against the trend, this downturn may only see mild downgrades. Moreover, as energy prices fall (except in the UK), economic forecasts are becoming less pessimistic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 2.7% next year, including 1% in the US, 0.5% in the euro area and 4.9% in Asia. With inflation falling, interest rates likely to peak soon and the dollar now declining, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research sees only a mild recession in 2023, if any. “There is no recession in forward earnings,” he says. “In a soft landing, earnings may continue to be depressed but revenues should hold up.”
In 2008/2009, investors thought the financial system would collapse. In 2011, the euro was about to fall apart. Now we will probably face a mild recession as interest rates are raised to bring inflation under control. Corporate earnings will be depressed, but will bounce back in the subsequent recovery. So why should investors dump equities, causing a market sell-off, only to see them bounce back once the vulture investors have piled in? Sitting tight and riding out the turbulence is a better strategy.
The problem is that the bears are relying too much on precedent and they believe that they are smarter than other investors. But, as Mark Twain observed, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes”. This time, rather than a final sell-off in equities followed by a sharp recovery, we may have seen the bear market fizzling out to be followed by an insipid recovery.
And this is the catch. Interest rates will peak before long, but they are unlikely to start falling for some time thereafter. Inflation will persist (it always does) and growth in corporate earnings will be moderate with few positive surprises. US equities aren’t cheap enough to perform well without good news, and that will hold other markets back.
Maybe the recent sharp drops in bond yields, the oil price and those of other commodities heralds a worse economic outlook. But if so, inflation is likely to fall faster and monetary easing should be brought forward. Corporate earnings would be worse in the short term, but equities should trade on higher multiples, anticipating a rebound in profits.
Gilts are again expensive, but 2023 should still see decent stockmarket returns – although investors will have to be patient and choose well. Legendary investor John Templeton may have been right to say that “‘this time it’s different’ are the four most expensive words in the English language”, but “this time it’s the same” can be just as expensive.
Thank you, Phoenix.
Phoenix/Libturd,
“An internal investigation in May 2020 by Lt. David Doherty cleared the officers of wrongdoing. “
https://www.telegram.com/story/news/local/2022/11/01/footage-from-2019-shows-verbal-confrontation-between-preacher-and-police-officer-turn-to-arrest-with/69610122007/
“If it can happen inside a church it can happen to anyone,” said Rev. Rizzuti, Jr.
Yes it can. Witnessed it first hand.
Thanks Joyce.
ChiFi’s mind……whoa
Trump: tErMinAtE tHe CoNsTituTioN…!!!!