From the NY Post:

Here’s how much US home prices will plunge in current market bubble

US home prices will likely have to decline by as much as 20% over the course of a multi-year correction before the housing sector can get back on track with historical trends, a research firm warned this week.

The most recent correction cycles that occurred in the US housing market, such as a bubble in the 1990s and the sector’s implosion in the mid-2000s, took several years to conclude, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said.

In the current market, US home prices have only begun to fall in the last few months – suggesting the declines will continue for the foreseeable future.

“US home prices need to fall by about 15-20 percent over the coming years in order to return to their long run growth trend. That process is clearly starting but has a good way to go,” Colas said in a note to investors this week obtained by Insider.

Colas stated that peak home prices in June were 29% higher than their historical trend.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to Kaboom?

  1. 3b says:

    20 percent sounds right, it was a bubble period.

  2. Phoenix says:

    Money to be made during volatility.

    Never let a good crisis go to waste.

  3. leftwing says:

    Interesting posts on house and stock values yesterday and today…I would caution against using primarily long term historical price trends to form an opinion of future prices in these two asset classes. There is no mathematical or scientific basis that these prices must ‘revert to mean’.

    Other variables affecting price can change to disrupt that ‘analysis’, eg. corporate earnings increases due to inflation which increases the E in the P/E and would support current share prices. Housing became substantially less affordable at current prices because of a 300bps increase in mortgage rates; a complimentary increase in household earnings due to inflation can move this new price affordability ‘floor’ up…or a combination of wage inflation and rate declines….

    I’m on record here that I could see up to 20% in a downside (not base) case in share prices ‘all else being equal’…those last four words are of utmost importance, however, as most people willfully forget that precondition in their home and stock forecasts and, in fact, rarely on a prospective basis do all those other things actually remain equal.

    Joyce…what can I say…sociopathic, egotistical pigs, so many of them…a little bothered right now because as I read your post CBS Sunday Morning is on in the background with a segment on the ‘social welfare’ state and their treatment of and injustices toward parents. For anyone who has been forced to sit through sessions with a social worker as part of a divorce with minor children and witness these mindless, dead eyed, entirely uncaring power seekers (notably almost entirely of one political persuasion and on the extreme of that persuasion) knows what I speak of. There is not a horrible enough demise for them.

    On the actual police I don’t know what the answer is…I do know this, no one should be able to be arrested solely for ‘resisting arrest’ without another underlying charge (that sticks). Such situation is on its face ridiculous. Start there, perhaps with default liability for the municipality in these cases…If we remove this blanket cover for police once they decide to escalate a situation perhaps we will see less of these types of confrontations.

  4. Ex says:

    Trump can suspend the Constitution just by thinking about it.

  5. leftwing says:

    LOL. The idea that Murphy could become President even without this baggage is laughable.

  6. leftwing says:

    He’s a northeast liberal from a bankrupt metropolitan state. He wouldn’t be capable of carrying a single swing state…remember, NY/NJ/MA have literally zero impact on determining who is President…they are already solidly blue

  7. Ex says:

    New Jersey governors carry about as much National appeal as you might expect.

  8. leftwing says:

    LOL, exactly.

  9. Chicago says:


    On November 15, 2022, after the market closed, Provident announced in two filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it was delaying the issuance of its financial statements and quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. Additionally, Provident said “it currently estimates that it will report a net loss of approximately $27.5 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2022, compared to net income of $5.1 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2021” and that “[t]he Company is still evaluating the actual level of losses due to the recent decline in the cryptocurrency mining industry, and such losses may exceed this estimate.”

  10. Fabius Maximus says:

    Meanwhile the other NJ Governor running for office has some issues as well.


  11. Phoenix says:

    Jersey is mocked in all sorts of random videos. Mocked on television. Mocked in movies.

    It has a bad rep-even in other countries.

    Any politician liked to it would be considered toxic waste.

  12. Phoenix says:

    His niece is a biter. Hope the PoPo got their rabies vaccine.

    pequeña perra

  13. Ex says:

    1:10 imma need pics of the niece. She sounds like a bruiser.

  14. 3b says:

    Question for the tech savvy here. I recently upgraded my FIOS speed, and that required a new router. The tech came and installed it, and immediately I had problems downloading Netflix etc, it takes forever, and some of the pictures are blurry and or break up; sometimes it just switches right back to regular TV. Called FIOS, and after a tortuous process got through to a customer service rep. Told her my issues, and she ran some tests on the new router and service in general. She said there were some issues with not running full speed, but that she resolved them. I told her the issues are still there, and she replied I am running at full speed. She suggested it could be my TV and streaming companies not supporting old software ;( my smart tv is only 5 years old) . I find it suspect that now right after upgrading my FIOS speed it’s my TV. I had no issues whatsoever prior to upgrading service. I would appreciate any thoughts and suggestions for resolving this issue.

  15. Phoenix says:

    Check your speed from a phone or laptop using ookla speedtest or xfinity speedtest, no app is required , use browser. See what your number is. If slow, check with laptop or desktop wired connection, see where you land.

    If you were fine before I don’t believe it is your television. It’s a setting or there is an issue
    I like Asus routers myself. You control them through an app on the phone. Easy to see what they are doing and make changes on the fly.

  16. phoenix says:

    You need to know if you have a problem with your “fibered” or “wireless” or both.

    If your wired or “fibered” connection is slow, wireless is going along for the ride.
    If not, it’s purely a wireless issue.

  17. BRT says:

    Christie served for 8 years and failed on nearly every single one of his promises. In fact, he didn’t even try. He was also absent 75% of the time while running for president. His beach escapade was simply the icing on the cake on his way out. The fact that he even thinks he has chance is laughable.

  18. Juice Box says:

    3b – Is the tv on wireless? Your older TV would not support Wi-Fi 6, but it will support Wi-Fi 5. Make sure it’s the 5G Wi-Fi network, should be something like FIOS-DXXX-5G. How many bars does the TV have?

    Consider a repeater too, aka extender, they are plug and play plug into cable jack and power etc. You can also hardwire the TV into the extender or the router itself.


  19. Juice Box says:

    3B – BTW download the management app from FIOS, you can see the settings and devices connected there, and do all kinds of stuff.

  20. 3b says:

    Juice/ Phoenix Thanks for the suggestions. FIOs said router running at full speed, so is it the settings on TV that has to be changed to accommodate the new router/ increased speed? I have no patience for this stuff, just want to stream when I want to stream.

  21. leftwing says:

    If the good suggestions above don’t help you resolve your issues I found the FiOS technicians driving around in trucks to be the most useful…If I had issues (less than yours admittedly since my stuff actually worked albeit not well) I’d flag down a FiOS truck in the neighborhood and ask the guy if he could help. They’d come into my place, figure it out, and I’d flip them a 20.

    Or just unplug the router and call FiOS service and have them open new ticket and send a tech…

  22. 3b says:

    Left: I like the technician idea; it’s Christmas, I will give him $30.00

  23. Juice Box says:

    3B TV is not wired correct? Check the wifi network your TV it is connected to under the TV settings, there should be three different wifi networks. 2G, 5G and 6G, your older TV can only connect to 2 G or 5 G. TV should display signal strength too usually in bars. You want it on the 5G at least. 5 G will give you more signal strength and faster speed over a shorter range, that is why you should check the bars etc.

  24. leftwing says:

    fun with charts….

    Made the argument a while back on here since forward earnings are so volatile I was relying on trailing since those don’t change. FactSet is a quality provider. I bought on the most recent dip to what would have been about 17 on the trailing. She hits there again (about 12% down from here) I’ll load up some more. Caveat is this only covers the free money period, but waiting for a reversion to, say, 14x (25% down) reeks of market timing to me and risks missing the ultimate move…plus, for the way I put trades on I’ve got a 20% decline built in before losses…..


    And for our 2022 earnings buffs on here….same provider. 6% swing down in 60 days on forecast 4Q22.


  25. 3b says:

    Juice: That I can do. Thanks!

  26. Fabius Maximus says:

    Or just unplug the router and call FiOS service and have them open new ticket and send a tech…

    These days unless you have the extended plan ($x/month) they will charge you for the service call. Last time I had an issue I couldn’t get the guide to display they wanted something like $120 to send out a tech. I said no and a few days later it resolved itself.

  27. joyce says:

    You can get a Fios technician to come out without paying a service call.

  28. Chicago says:

    Provident Bancorp is grappling with a sizable cryptocurrency hit that it expects will result in a third-quarter loss.

    The $1.8 billion-asset bank this week delayed its latest earnings filing but estimated a third-quarter loss of $27.5 million related to loans to a cryptocurrency miner. That would compare with net income of $5.1 million reported for the third quarter of 2021.

    Provident cautioned in a regulatory filing Tuesday the official loss could exceed its estimates. It cited the highly publicized meltdown of the cryptocurrency mining industry in recent months.

  29. joyce says:

    Lol. Did you even read what was in the link you posted?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 4, 2022 at 8:54 pm
    Whatever Joyce.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Fun weekend wife and kids are all sick, low grade fever and sore throat, fatigue etc. I am immune so far. Saw on the news NYC hospitals are overwhelmed with Flu A and RSV cases etc. Chuck Schumer is calling for Federal Aid already.

    Did we not prepare for this?


  31. Fabius Maximus says:

    One of my kids tested +ve for Flu A. Paid $60 to upgrade to that Xofluza horse pill. 24hrs later kid is back on their feet. Just clearing up the residual cough.

    That stuff really works.

  32. Phoenix says:

    “Did we not prepare for this?”

    No, we were preparing for this, and are hard at work on the next version.


  33. BRT says:

    It’s amazing how governments are obsessed with war and crappy international politics. Everyone, including the slimy politicians, would probably be much richer if we just minded our own business and focused on domestic growth.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Do you know who I am? Let me remind you. And if you need anything……


  35. Phoenix says:

    and the coverup:

    Local reporters had tried to get the footage, which cops claimed not to have, for weeks before it was finally released on Thursday.


  36. Bystander says:

    Hey 3b,

    Did you check specs on TV and what band they support? If only 5 years old then should support 802.11n. Make sure new router not set 802.11ac or something newer. Also, the router channel could be set to 5Ghz but should be 2.4GHZ in using older equipment. FIOS people should be able to help here and troubleshoot. Try Netflix on your laptop and see if works. Netflix App could be old on smartTV and no ability to upgrade on some TV models.

  37. 3b says:

    Bystander: Thanks for the information, my head is spinning after reading it, but I appreciate it. Will try what you said step by step. The FIOS router is brand new , apparently the latest one they have. I upgraded from 75 to 300, as I thought that would make sense, faster speed and all. That being said I had no issues with the old speed even with WFH, and all my systems. Never should have changed it, and it’s what I get for not checking further, but as I said, I thought it would be pretty straight forward.

  38. Mike S says:

    Fios Router is terrible. I suggest if you want a better signal use 2.4 ghz network – it is more than enough for streaming HD. Furthermore you probably need a mesh network for better overall coverage. Don’t pay to rent the fios router, its really really bad.

  39. leftwing says:

    When I was looking to cord cut 12-24 months ago IIRC you needed to have a FiOS router for services outside of raw internet…I’m sure I’m misstating something there as it was a while ago but I know I could not ditch the FiOS router unless I was going just pure internet through them.

    Ended up going most basic TV package possible, ditched all boxes except one, and ran the three other TVs through apps…which (smile Lib) I got mostly for free and still do…NFLX, Apple+, Paramount, etc….

  40. leftwing says:

    Also, they told me their mesh also required their extenders, not off the shelf…never tested that one out, they might have been just BS’ing to try to keep the lease revenue coming in…

  41. grim says:

    Own both of the modems I have, one at home and one at the shop.

    This is an easier said than done kind of thing, since you will get ZERO support unless your modem meets a very narrow set of specifications. Manufacturer, model, and firmware levels need to be spot on. You could spend weeks buying modems only to find out you needed the F firmware, not G, of that the cryptic model number you bought was one digit off, and thus entirely incompatible. All of this knowledge comes from third-parties, since your cable company is not going to be of any help in providing guidance (not my device, not my problem). If you thought calling them up was painful when you had their hardware, prepare to have some real fun when you don’t use their provided modem and router.

  42. Mike S says:

    Oh yeah definitely don’t recommend it unless you expect zero support. I am currently using a nighthawk from netgear as a router. The ONT directly has an eternet plug into it.
    Also if you pay for cable you might need their router – I cut the cord so I am not sure

  43. Ex says:

    Buh Bye Kyrie….that was one expensive tweet.
    Signed, Phil Knight

  44. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (I’m Done [lost patience] Shopping For Christmas Edition):

    Shopping Website content:
    You’re More Scared to Admit to Feeding Your Kids McDonald’s Than You Are to Eating Your Placenta

    Sure, we’ve all been there — desperate days that call for quick and easy sustenance and a little sanity for mom. But you’d still rather talk about your placenta capsules than the fossilized remains of a Happy Meal on the floor of your car.

  45. leftwing says:

    “Buh Bye Kyrie….that was one expensive tweet.”

    Not that I agree with his views – I don’t – but philosophically what’s the point of having fuck-you money if you don’t ever say fuck you?

  46. Juice Box says:

    If you have FIOS TV you do have to use their router. Verizon routers create a separate private Wi-Fi which works with their Wireless mini set-top boxes, a separate Wi-Fi channel to stream from the main DVR for recorded shows as well as viewing their TV cable channels. I have the DVR main box and two additional wireless mini boxes for the multi room setup. I also have a WI-Fi repeater, their brand purchased on eBay so I don’t pay another rental fee.

  47. trick says:

    On real-estate, buddy just called and said he put an offer on a house in my town. House has at least two offers over list. House he is selling due to a divorce is listed 150k over what he paid for it 3 years ago and he has 3 offers over list price. Back to no inventory, so if you need to buy you have to pay a premium.

  48. Old realtor says:

    Are you sure the house hasn’t been expanded or renovated since acquired by current owner?

  49. Libturd says:

    Here’s my advice. Cut the cord! Just use the FIOS desktop ONT Ethernet out to your own modem. We use the Darth Vader-looking Nighthawk which worked perfectly out of the box. The 5G is super strong all over my four floor plastered home. The 2.4g reaches the end of my block. I also purchased two USB fans which blow upwards into the router to keep things cool. Cost me $5.

  50. Juice Box says:

    Cannot cut cord without cutting out the better half. Demands a landline too….

  51. Ex says:

    3:57 Say whatever you want just don’t expect to stay on the corporate payroll of Nike.

  52. JUice Box says:

    Just so we understand were everyone stands here, Nike ends a shoe deal with a basketball player over a tweet linking to Amazon but does not stop selling on Amazon? CEO of Amazon Andy Jassy who is also Jewish has refused to pull the book and the movie, it is a #1 seller book too.

    I guess they are making a business decision here, it is cheaper to sign another player to endorse sneakers than to pull their gear from Amazon.

    BTW those dudes have been in NYC and Times Sq for decades preaching that they are real chosen ones. They are controversial for sure, but I gather all Jews don’t agree with cancelling them, as their message and books and movies are still out there. Free Speech or whatever…

  53. Libturd says:


    If it was anyone else, I would agree. But unless I see him preaching in front of a PA in Times Square, I’m not buying this.

  54. Ex says:

    It’s an extension of Louis Farrakhan and his toxic bullshit.

  55. Ex says:

    Farrakhan blames Jews for the slave trade, plantation slavery, Jim Crow, sharecropping and general black oppression. Farrakhan’s tone grew more belligerent in June 2010, when he sent letters to several leaders of the Jewish community as well as the Southern Poverty Law Center demanding that they acknowledge the evils they have perpetrated and that they work to further Farrakhan’s goals. The letter ended with a threat to “ruin and destroy your power and influence here and throughout the world” if his terms were not met.

    In his own words

    “The Jews, a small handful, control the movement of this great nation, like a radar controls the movement of a great ship in the waters. … The Jews got a stranglehold on the Congress.”
    ­–Louis Farrakhan, Saviours’ Day speech, Chicago, Feb. 25, 1990

    “And you do with me as is written, but remember that I have warned you that Allah will punish you. You are wicked deceivers of the American people. You have sucked their blood. You are not real Jews, those of you that are not real Jews. You are the synagogue of Satan, and you have wrapped your tentacles around the U.S. government, and you are deceiving and sending this nation to hell. But I warn you in the name of Allah, you would be wise to leave me alone. But if you choose to crucify me, know that Allah will crucify you.”
    –Louis Farrakhan, Saviours’ Day speech, Chicago, Feb. 25, 1996

    “And the Christian right, with your blindness to that wicked state of Israel … can that be the holy land, and you have gay parades, and want to permit to have a gay parade in Jerusalem when no prophet ever sanctioned that behavior. How can that be the Israel, how can that be Jerusalem with secular people running the holy land when it should be the holy people running the holy land. That land is gonna be cleansed with blood!”
    –Louis Farrakhan, Saviours’ Day speech, Chicago, Feb. 26, 2006

  56. trick says:

    Old, the house he is selling he put 80k+ into it, so that explains his sell bump. Its more the multiple offers at or above list for both the house he is selling ang the one he is looking to buy.

  57. Libturd says:


    Give it time! It took four years for the last housing bubble to go from peak to valley. Wait for the recession. Employment is the only thing stopping the drop. When people lose their jobs, prices will drop some.

  58. Juice Box says:

    EX – 30 years ago would you walk into their store in NYC and buy one of their books?

    How about their merch?


    Farrakhan books as well as Mein Kamp are still on Amazon too, and probably allot of other hateful writings like you know that other religious book that a billion or so people read daily.

    Cancel the basketball player for a tweet linking to the book or movie on Amazon, but not the purveyor who makes a profit off such hatred? You can buy lots of NBA gear on Amazon too including an NBA pass, the commissioner of the NBA did not suspend Amazon.

  59. 3b says:

    Juice: Those real Jews clowns have been preaching since the 80s, if not earlier, they list all the countries that are the real Jews. Some interesting ones like Argentina and Chile, where the overwhelming majority of the people are descendants of white Europeans, and all the countries that are mixed race mestizos like Nicaragua, and Guatemala. And those silly costumes that they wore!! Looked like they were out of the Village Halloween parade; I love the irony there

  60. Ex says:

    5:19 he lost a shoe contract. Hardly cancelled. But that’s free enterprise.
    He also believes in flat earth. Montclair Kimberly grad.

  61. BRT says:

    Kyrie has always been an idiot.

  62. Ex says:

    I know a black dude – radio personality in Chicago – who was in the conversation class my Nordic Bride took. He was cool. I’m close to a few brothers. No, this something else like homegrown terrorism. Radicalized and prone to violence. Now you see why Israel takes very little shit from anyone. And Yes the US aids that Country. No BRT we cannot just look out for Ourselves. Fortress America only works if you have allies.

  63. Ex says:

    “Conversion” class – typo

    Course someone takes to become a Jew.

  64. BRT says:

    My argument applied to the rest of the world as well. If we all just stopped acting like Neanderthals, we’d all be better off. Instead, we are obsessed with holding each other back and pillaging other nations.

  65. Ex says:

    We’re kind of a the world’s badasses. I for one blame John Wayne.

  66. Ex says:

    I think we tried the stand bye thing with Syria if I’m not mistaken and that place was turned to rubble. We need to battle test our weaponry anyways…/s

  67. leftwing says:

    LOL Ex. Or Indiana Jones.

    Seriously, BRT, I hear you. Never understood this “bigger, better, more” attitude. Very low end if you actually think about it…and indicative of some deep seated insecurities…the more exclusive a thing the less there is of it, no?

    Best quality of life is in your more discrete areas…within the US and out…still, we have fools on national TV making the case to bring in more professionals – especially STEM – because we need MORE…why? Who does that advantage? Certainly having MORE is not to the benefit of our citizens in those fields…

    Had a conversation on here not so long ago…someone mentioned how the UK gave up their ‘world leadership’ by Brexit…who the fuck cares? Pull out of responsibilities and focus on inward betterment? Personal, business, national polities, wherever…sounds like nirvana. The Swiss? Austrians? And so forth….

    China has 5x our population right now and a GDP that will eventually overtake us. They have their own space station (we don’t). Who cares? Who are we racing against? And better, why?

    We are not the world’s policeman nor the world’s social worker. Even if we intended to be it is an impossible proposition. The amount of suffering and poverty worldwide is immeasurable and not reparable. By anyone.

    Are there bright lines? Of course…a tiny polity that (mostly) shares our values surrounded by a billion people following a book of Middle Age nutcases (thanks to whomever above for that characterization)? Yes.

    Proxy wars for buffer states who haven’t lifted a finger for themselves over generations that may require our childrens legs, arms or brains? Not a chance. Sorry Ukraine, love the blue/yellow, very neat color scheme and I may incorporate it somewhere, but you’ve had more than a few centuries to figure it out for yourselves and if you can’t it’s not on us…from OUR perspective you are the grey area surrounding a bright line that exists for OUR protection…I don’t wish you ill will but my kids aren’t going to die for your cause…

    It’s well overdue for us to take a fat red marker, trace the boundaries of the lower 48, and have our citizenry all look at eachother and say ‘in or out’. You want to save the world, be my guest…head to Iran for womens’ causes (and be prepared to be disappeared or buried to your neck in dirt and stoned to death) or head to Mozambique to aid the war torn…and be ready to pick your ‘shirtsleeve’, that is where the their machete takes your arm off, above the elbow (short) or below the elbow (long)…They’re actually considerate enough to give you a choice…

    Yeah, America First…the strength to not be fucked with and the fortitude and confidence to not have to interject our opinion everywhere. And focus on ourselves, for OUR collective betterment. Long overdue.

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