The new inflation baseline

From the WSJ:

Must Inflation Be Brought Down All the Way to 2%?

“Why must inflation be around 2%?” is a question that obsessed central bankers back when inflation was stubbornly below their favorite target. It makes more sense to ask it now.

This past week, a string of data has suggested that inflation is finally on a downward trend. The U.S. personal-consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—recorded its second-smallest monthly increase for the year, even as consumer spending jumped and job growth continued. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation receded to 10% in November, suggesting that October’s 10.6% was the peak. 

Stocks have rallied, especially after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that interest rates will go up in smaller increments from now on. But he also indicated that the tightening is far from over. Indeed, central bankers don’t ultimately care if inflation stops rising: They want it to go down, back to the 2% number they are mandated to hit. 

It underscores the misalignment between their interests and everybody else’s, which should worry investors.

Inflation in many rich countries has been decelerating since July, yet economists don’t expect it to return to 2% until a distant 2025, based on median forecasts. Derivatives markets price in that the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will stop raising rates in 2023, cut them later in the year, and then sit on their laurels for two full years as inflation grinds down.

But what if inflation stabilizes at a higher rate—say between 4% and 6%? In this plausible case, central banks may be compelled to start needlessly raising rates again, catching investors off guard. It would make a lot more sense to raise the inflation target instead, or define it as a wider range.

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135 Responses to The new inflation baseline

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    first

  2. grim says:

    Yeah, America First…the strength to not be fucked with and the fortitude and confidence to not have to interject our opinion everywhere. And focus on ourselves, for OUR collective betterment. Long overdue.

    I’d be happy with just focusing on our own neighborhood, but even that seems like a stretch.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Yeah, America First…the strength to not be fucked with and the fortitude and confidence to not have to interject our opinion everywhere. And focus on ourselves, for OUR collective betterment. Long overdue.

    Bravo!

  4. grim says:

    Ukraine successfully pulling off two major Russian airbase attacks deep into Russia using their newly developed drone?

    Rumor is they destroyed more than 5 aircraft across the 2 bases, estimates at north of $100m in damaged aircraft. They hit a base that was 150 miles from Moscow, more surprisingly – the drone got there, that was nearly 400 miles of Russian airspace traversed.

  5. Libturd says:

    Drones against aircraft remind me of u-boats sinking battleships. We are really going to have to rethink the way we plan our military. Star Wars sort of had it right with the attack of the drones.

  6. grim says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KjC6neVlbE

    14 seconds between the flash and the shockwave, shakes the camera something like 3 miles away.

  7. Chicago says:

    Inversion 81

  8. grim says:

    Great name for a retro pop 80s band – Inversion 81

    They did a great cover of London Calling on Tiktok

  9. grim says:

    I will admit, TikTok provided a tiny sliver of entertainment the other night. If anyone’s watched the Wednesday series on Netflix, a bunch of musicians, concert cellists, on TikTok have been trying to replicate the “impossible” cover of Paint it Black that was on the show. There was a group that had been trying for days to nail it, and had gotten pretty darn close.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4bb8kM2UGck

  10. Ex says:

    The Paterson school district has hired 115 teachers in the 11 weeks since authorizing $7,500 signing bonuses to new hires, officials said.

    However, the number of teaching vacancies in New Jersey’s 3rd-largest city has risen from 135 on Sept. 14 — the night the school board approved the bonus plan — to 146 as of Dec. 1.

    In announcing the hires last week, the K-12 district said the current number of teaching vacancies “would have been nearly 80 percent higher without the pre-employment agreements.”

    “The evidence is clear that the pre-employment agreements have been effective in recruiting qualified teachers to Paterson Public Schools and helping us limit the number of our vacancies,” Paterson Schools Superintendent Eileen F. Shafer said.

    “It has always been our goal to recruit teachers to Paterson Public Schools. We are reaching that goal with the help of our incentive program,” Shafer said.

  11. 1987 Condo says:

    Disappointing to say the least:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/most-colleges-give-inaccurate-price-details-in-financial-aid-letters-federal-report-finds-11670273500?mod=djemalertNEWS

    A federal watchdog is calling for Congress to establish tighter regulations on how colleges and universities describe their financial-aid packages, saying the information most schools now share with students and families is woefully inadequate and even misleading.

    The U.S. Government Accountability Office issued a report Monday saying that the aid letters that are supposed to lay out tuition, fees and other expenses, and what grants, loans and other financing options are available to cover those costs, lack crucial information that would allow families to compare institutions. At their worst, some financial aid offer letters lead students to enroll in schools they can’t afford.

    One of the most troubling findings from its review, the GAO said, was that 91% of schools don’t properly list their net price, or the amount a student is expected to pay for tuition, fees, room, board and other expenses after taking into account scholarships and grants.

    Studying recent aid offers from a nationally representative sample of 176 colleges, the GAO found 41% of colleges didn’t include a net price, while 50% did offer a figure—but understated the cost by excluding certain items, or by factoring in loans for students and parents that ultimately need to be repaid.

    Roughly two-thirds of schools didn’t include details about at least one type of student aid, for instance that students must maintain certain grades to remain eligible for grants, or that work-study jobs aren’t guaranteed.

    The review found 22% of schools didn’t provide any information at all about costs in their aid letters, just laying out details of scholarships, work-study and loans without context for what share of the bill each might cover.

  12. Grim says:

    Sounds like we need a TILA-like Truth in Education disclosure that’s approved by the FTC.

  13. Chicago says:

    If you remember Heaven 17, they performed Mahwah Calling

    grim says:
    December 6, 2022 at 7:57 am
    Great name for a retro pop 80s band – Inversion 81

    They did a great cover of London Calling on Tiktok

  14. phoenix says:

    “I will admit, TikTok provided a tiny sliver of entertainment the other night.”

    What??? Aren’t you afraid the Chinese are going to use your data to attack America and you? Delete this IMMEDIATELY!!!! /s

  15. Juice Box says:

    Grim – re: ” newly developed drone”

    Not quite new. They teased the drone’s existence a few times on Social Media. It’s a repurposed Soviet era drone with an apparent warhead now attached. Tu-141 Strizh reconnaissance drone. Ukraine accidentally crashed a malfunctioning one all the way into Croatia back March, they have been tinkering with it for nearly a decade now, as we are now in the 9th year of this war, and have been fighting in Donbass for that long.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-modified-soviet-era-jet-drones-to-hit-bomber-bases-russia-claims

  16. DementiaIsBeautiful YouRememberUselessStuff says:

    If I remember correctly from graduate class eons ago. The 2% inflation target is the oil in the banking engine.

    The 2% inflation target is a built in requirement of the fractional reserve fiat banking system. You lend money deposited to you. But a very small percentage of those loans are going to fail.

    The 2% slowly allows, in average times with average loans, the damage that those failed loans do to wither away without heavy damage. It matches + a little wiggle room the 1.5% average bank loss reserve during average time by the FDIC, Fed and other regulators.

  17. Juice Box says:

    It was reported that we Nerfed the HIMARS systems we provided Ukraine, so it cannot fire the 300 mile range ATACMS missiles, if they could get them on the black market from say some leftovers in Afghanistan or Iraq. The missiles that we are providing M31A2 have a max range of around 57 miles, so they won’t be crossing the red line with American gear anytime soon.

    As far as any Ukraine’s advances further? Does not seem anytime soon, Putin himself drove a Mercedes across the rebuilt portion of the Crimea bridge.

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/05/vladimir-putin-drives-on-repaired-crimea-bridge-in-pr-stunt/

  18. leftwing says:

    Don’t disagree but wouldn’t a loan loss reserve basis argue for higher inflation, in that say 6% inflation provides a higher buffer for balance sheet damage due to write-offs?

    I think the most recent fixation on 2% was when we were at ZIRP and the Fed was concerned that should we slip into recession they would have nowhere to go except actually negative…I seem to recall much debate around the ‘logic’ of raising rates (and potentially causing a recession) in order to have latitude to then cut rates when a recession occurs…

  19. Juice Box says:

    2% is just the unwanted bastard child of ZIRP.

    Fed began discussing whether an explicit target ought to be declared back a decade ago. FED meeting transcripts up to 2013 shows that officials overwhelmingly favored a lower 1.5% target, it was shifted up to 2% which gave the economy more room to grow and gave bankers more leeway to use interest rate cuts again back down, which we just did again in 2020 due to Covid. We simply may not live long enough to see 2% again…

  20. leftwing says:

    “Studying recent aid offers from a nationally representative sample of 176 colleges, the GAO found 41% of colleges didn’t include a net price…but understated the cost by excluding certain items, or by factoring in loans for students and parents that ultimately need to be repaid.”

    I would respectfully suggest that if one is not capable of understanding that education loans are (were?) liabilities to be repaid maybe college isn’t for you/your family and you should pursue other endeavors…same if one just assumes the ‘free money’ of grants comes with no strings attached…

    After a dozen semesters of college expense over three institutions I will offer that the insidious, endless smaller undisclosed ‘fees’ would really add up for the average family…from a hundred to multiple hundreds of dollars each these fees come in all shapes and sizes…lab, student government, rec, sports, registration, legal services (WTF and why?), RHA (no idea what that one was), orientation (really, not covered in tuition?), etc, etc….

    Kind of like when you get new tires and have a price and then get hit with a disposal fee, stem fee, balancing separate….

  21. leftwing says:

    Personal irritation….Poshmark and their inane commercials…really agitates me having some chirpy little spinner whirling through a walk-in closet talking about how she ‘makes’ money reselling the leopard print shit on her shelves and racks…

    Please do tell…how does buying overpriced bad fashion for $800 and then disposing of it after a few wears for $300 ‘make’ money?

    Let’s all get together and do it in volume and we’ll become ridiculously rich!!

    Fucking idiots, relying on the greater fool theory….

    Can’t believe I was actually stupid enough at one point in life to marry something similar…

  22. Juice Box says:

    My niece is receiving her school acceptances now. Parents are divorced so they are doing 1/3 each parent and 1/3 loans on her.

    She likes to work with animals, and may want to become a veterinarian down the road so it’s a long haul of 8 years. I suggested an undergraduate degree at a cheaper local NY state school and then onto veterinary school perhaps maybe even Cornell University veterinary school which is quite cheap for instate tuition.

    Seems every school she want to go to is out of state….Someone better educate her on instate vs out of state costs. I know she wants out of the house etc but moving to PA to go to undergrad and then on to an out of state veterinary school could easily run her loans up to 1/2 million before all said and done. It’s not like the horse or the dog is going to ask you where you graduated from…

  23. leftwing says:

    Vet was always an excellent career choice and has only become moreso with recent trends….it is traditionally a profession with a high degree of personal freedom (hours, location), strong entrepreneurial opportunity if predisposed, and solid ROI…plus as you note the patients don’t complain….

    Now the spend on the family pet is increasing exponentially and, if you are predisposed to the sciences, other careers are becoming less advantageous on a relative basis (eg, PT used to four years, now it’s six).

    Solid career choice and solid advice…undergrad hit the institution where you will get the best grades (for acceptance) and save money; if you are going to ‘invest’ do it on the grad degree….

  24. Juice Box says:

    Left – Back when I lived in Manhattan used clothing shopping in NYC used to be a competition sport and probably still is…Never underestimate the buying patterns of the xx chromosomes, 85% of consumer spending is done by them.

    block the ads online or change the channel, and avoid the angst…

  25. leftwing says:

    LOL, yeah, need to learn to tune some shit out….

    Remember the Barney’s sale back in the day…what was that, on 17th Street once a year?

    My version of hell is spending any time in the SHM yet even I would wait an hour on line around the block to get into that one….

  26. Ex says:

    Big fan of instate tuition and state schools in general.
    I’m at $28k instate for my kiddo. Meanwhile sis is at $50k
    for a state school that is 3 states away. Oooof

  27. Ex says:

    A lot of the kids are hip to vintage clothing.
    I used to find gorgeous Hugo Boss suits at Marshall’s.
    That was a long time ago. Now I just buy from eBay. Pennies on the dollar.
    You can also find some amazing vintage stuff.

  28. leftwing says:

    “Big fan of instate tuition and state schools in general.”

    Me too, especially when you have the quality of something like the Cal system behind you…

    For so many kids it’s not just a get out of the house thing (NY/Cal are big states with multiple campuses) but also a ‘prestige’ item among peers…they don’t yet have the cortex or financial experience to weigh the ‘cost’ of avoiding a couple weeks of shit from peers who are traveling out of state versus the massive difference in their personal balance sheets four years out…

    My kids were full fare out of state…for good reason, but I still remember some relative’s kids feeling so diminished by ribbing from their peers who were ‘moving away’….to schools clearly academically inferior to what was chosen by my niece/nephew!

  29. leftwing says:

    Alright, back to coal mines….give me VIX at 35 or better before month end and I’ll pay someone’s semester from the proceeds…

  30. Phoenix says:

    My best friend is a Vet. This is what is happening in this industry. Being an independent anything in America is becoming harder each day.

    https://truthaboutpetfood.com/a-concerning-pet-industry-monopoly/

  31. Phoenix says:

    No, but their owners do. For every little thing. And as much as you think the hours are 7-3, as a friend of a vet, I can tell you it’s a lifestyle-plus good like hiring other young vets-they don’t want to work weekends, or take call, many are women who are really into the lifestyle thing-and when they screw up, you will hear about it.

    “plus as you note the patients don’t complain.”

  32. leftwing says:

    LOL, JFC I hope not but I would suggest the self-awareness of middle aged+ men around current trends, music, and dancing is not high….

    Done a lot with vets. Understand and agree the drawbacks. Still, relative to any other healthcare profession IMO beats them by a mile (assuming of course you like animals). Forget to mention the relative administrative burden between human v. animal care as a huge added benefit.

  33. Ex says:

    Newsom’s wife apparently had transactional secks with Weinstein.
    Worse, she took the stand last month to disclose it. (Cringe)

  34. Ex says:

    Siebel Newsom — who is referred to in court as Jane Doe 4 — had already testified Monday about how her encounter with Weinstein was supposed to be a business meeting, but quickly turned into something else when Weinstein changed out of his suit into a robe, then started to “manipulate” and “threaten” her.

    She said Weinstein penetrated her private parts with his fingers and then his “deformed” penis, which she described as “kind of fish-like, the penis — something was distorted in the testicles … Lots of skin, lots of skin down there.”

    She also testified that she made “pleasure noises” after she put her hand on Weinstein’s penis to encourage him to ejaculate.

    On Tuesday, Werksman continued to grill Siebel Newsom about why she faked an orgasm with Weinstein, when he had just allegedly raped her.

  35. leftwing says:

    Stomach turning, words I wish I could unread…meanwhile, this little package I would take all day and night long…impressive, particularly after pushing out three kids….

    https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/florida-gov-ron-desantis-not-so-secret-political-weapon-is-his-wife-casey/

  36. Libturd says:

    “Madison, Mason and Mamie”

    Oy vey.

  37. Libturd says:

    Well, at least we know who wears the pants in that family.

  38. Ex says:

    Hehehehe pants.

  39. grim says:

    Have a houseguest that’s leaving for vet school in a few weeks. Helped with some of the financial aid decisions. Wow, kudos to her. She managed to get through undergrad with no debt. But the cost of vet school is astronomical, not a light decision.

  40. Libturd says:

    How’s that Santa rally coming along.

  41. Libturd says:

    Grim,

    It CAN be done. Harder today than when I attended, but the opportunity is there. Though you have to be willing to give up most of your college partying and other social life activities to do it. The other thing that comes from paying your own way (without loans), is you gain invaluable leadership experience. By the time you graduate, you will already be better prepared to handle the diversity of mostly unnecessary drama, that is “the office.” Then again, I think most of that drama disappears with WFH. By the way, saw a handful of articles this weekend saying the recession will increase the demand of WFH. Seems contrary to me, but not to the experts apparently.

  42. 3b says:

    Lib: Because in the end remote work makes the most financial sense for corporations that are looking at costs during a recession.

  43. leftwing says:

    “She managed to get through undergrad with no debt. But the cost of vet school is astronomical…”

    Googled Cornell Vet, they’re showing all-in (including room, board, etc) at $80k. That’s my kids’ undergrad ticket….

    60 in-state, the difference being a 20k tuition discount for residents….

  44. BRT says:

    This is the exact reason I opted out of going to med school. It was, at the time $50k, 4 years, then 6 year residency with deferred loans where the interest compounds. No income would just make it worse. The math wasn’t adding up.

  45. Libturd says:

    Cheapest way to become a vet is to enlist.

    Don’t forget to tip your waiters.

  46. grim says:

    Her full program is north of a $300k loan.

  47. 3b says:

    PepsiCo: Announced layoffs today in its snack division ,(Purchase NY, Plano Texas).

  48. Ex says:

    Two subsidiaries of the Trump Organization were convicted of multiple crimes, including tax fraud, falsifying business records and conspiracy after a trial in New York City.
    The convictions come weeks after the company’s owner, former President Donald Trump, declared his candidacy for the White House in the 2024 election.
    A jury in Manhattan Supreme Court began deliberations in the case this week.
    The Trump Organization faces fines of up to $1.6 million at sentencing in the case.

  49. leftwing says:

    fun with charts…

    Haven’t confirmed the underlying data…interesting the mid-00s bars as well…

    https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1600239378919325696/photo/1

    Colorado Springs…

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1599773661338415104/photo/1

  50. leftwing says:

    Grim, yeah, the 300k makes sense if she’s 100% loans….median US home price is $429k…

    High end career or shitty house?

    If she’s serious, the career is probably a good trade…

  51. grim says:

    My wife has been a specialty veterinary nurse (including internal medicine, oncology, critical care) for years. I told her to get a job in veterinary pharma sales, she would easily double, if not probably triple, her salary overnight. She had an opportunity to go work for pharma a few years back, helping to coordinate drug trial research. Told her she was out of her mind for not taking that opportunity. Clearly, she was never in it for the money. Either way, I’m pretty sure she makes more money as a ‘tech’ here in the Northeast, than many small town vets across middle America. These animal folks are a different breed.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    I know vets and also dated vets. I think you have education costs like a doctor, and can graduate into a five figure job if you are not careful. You can make good money out of the chute, but those jobs are corporate crap. The other thing I heard is that an unexpected aspect of the job is a lot of death. When you break the news about the affliction, 9x out of 10 then response when the potential cost is disclosed is “put it down”. So much death and heartbreak. I don’t want to counter anyone else’s legitimate and real examples, but my impression was NFW unless someone is paying your freight.

  53. leftwing says:

    I guess…hate to question the USNWR data as it appears to come from BLS but it stretches my credulity that a quarter of vets earn less than 80k…is the data off because it’s 2020 (covid?).

    Haven’t been around the sector in a bit, since before Mars stepped in heavy with the VCA acquisition…but those numbers just don’t feel right.

    If correct, shitty house it is…hell it’s a no brainer, why drop $300k on a career that won’t even qualify you for a median house in flyover America…

    Your wife, yeah a Zoetis or such would write a nice check for sales for sure…CEO there is a cutie.

  54. Juice Box says:

    My niece is in love with horses and works part time at stables and rides competitive equestrian etc. I would say if she heads down the route of equine focused veterinary, and stays away from the job of putting down fido and fluffy every day then she will be fine. Lord knows if I was allowed too I would tell her to skip skool and intern as a farrier for a year or two or perhaps while in school. My wife’s cousin is a farrier and it’s pretty simple he shows up on time and sober, that made him king of the profession where he lives. He has made a mint shoeing horses, and on the side has built and flipped several large homes too, 10+ acres with stables and all. Guy knows how to work the horse lovers fore $$$ that is for sure.

  55. Juice Box says:

    Oh the twitter tales only get more interesting.

    https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1600243756074049537

  56. Juice Box says:

    No matter what you think of Elon Musk his Starlink internet is an amazing achievement. During Dot Com 1.0 there were several startups that promised the same thing, low earth orbit satellite based internet, well they that all failed. What it took was someone to create their own custom rocket delivery system to get it done.

    Now today there is fast internet on the south pole.

    Simply amazing stuff.

    https://twitter.com/COLDEX_STC

  57. Ex says:

    Musk is a piece of work.

  58. BRT says:

    Bischoff’s in Teaneck closing at the end of the month. I’ve been meaning to take my kids to show them an old school ice cream shop.

  59. Libturd says:

    BRT. Holsten’s is still going strong in Bloomfield on Broad Street.

  60. Ex says:

    Georgia goes Blue. Senate firmly in the hands of the Left.

  61. Libturd says:

    The election was stolen.

  62. Libturd says:

    Good morning peeps!

    By the way. It’s great to be part of the 2%. Unless you work at GS or MS.

    Remember to tip your waiters.

    And ignore that BOA 2023 labor warning.

  63. 1987 Condo says:

    Judge signs with Yanks

  64. Libturd says:

    Smart move on Judge’s part. He will be a lifetime Yankee and they are extremely loyal to their performers. Probably the best org in baseball to work at. Though, they still choke every post-season.

  65. BRT says:

    He’s part of “they” though. If he wants to win, it’s on him.

  66. Ex says:

    Looks like Tech crash ver. 2.0 is upon us.
    Sharp words re: the H1B workers diluting (unfairly)
    the workforce. Interesting times.

  67. Bystander says:

    Hey Ex,

    Have a link to that tech crash article?

  68. Ex says:

    It’s not really an article per se, but in the NY Times they are running a story about a kid who graduated with a STEM degree and how these newly minted grads are looking at a bleak outlook. As usual though it is the COMMENTS which stand out.

    There is a spirited discussion re: the state of the H1B .

  69. Trick says:

    Grim, you had this call a few weeks ago
    STATE OF FREIGHT
    Freight rates from China to West Coast down 90% as global trade falls off fast

  70. 3b says:

    In other news Goblin Mode is Oxford’s word of the year. It’s defined as one who leads a lazy, slovenly, self-indulgent hedonistic life style, rejecting typical societal norms and no interest in self- improvement.

  71. Ex says:

    I’ve been in Goblin Mode for over 20 years tbh

  72. Phoenix says:

    “rejecting typical societal norms”
    America is devolving. As Carlin would say, sit back and enjoy the show. I’m seeing it at work every day.
    It’s like being caught in a rip tide, best thing to do is not fight it. Personally I am finding it comical.

    The inmates are running the asylum now.

  73. Phoenix says:

    Freight rates from China to West Coast down 90% as global trade falls off.

    The wealthy have bought all they need. Boomer has the last toilet he is ever going to take a dump in.

    No demand, no need to supply.

  74. Phoenix says:

    they are running a story about a kid who graduated with a STEM degree and how these newly minted grads are looking at a bleak outlook.

    Should be able to write off a college loan investment off if the career your “advisor” suggested you take turns out to be a bad one.

    Well, if you can’t and decide to jump, I will be at work standing by to hopefully piece you back together.

  75. Ex says:

    12:32 I wouldn’t trust You to assemble a Lego kit.

  76. Libturd says:

    But did you get ass cheek implants?

  77. Bystander says:

    Ex,

    At end of day, this is a non-event. Instead of working at cutting edge FAANG, crypto or payment fintech, they will have to work for banks, insurance, healthcare firms who got absolutely killed with turnover since pandemic. No one wanted to work for these boring, lower-paying companies. We still can’t fill a damn thing, some roles open for a year now. You won’t get 250K but 175k. No more 1-2 years dev candidates getting paid senior salaries. This was a needed flush. On H1B, I told you that my former BA had to leave for India bc his I-140 was not approved on time. I think govt agencies, immigration law firms as well as companies have struggled to maintain approval timelines which is screwing with many visa holders. 1 month is basically life or death in process and approvals are taking 2-3 months more than before pandemic. At my IB, we just don’t care. Restructures mean new reporting lines and imagine having a manager in UK and trying to get them to get your US visa approved. They are clueless and breakdown in communication is frequent. I also think it is become so time-consuming and costly to keep these people working that it just falls through cracks now. Many companies simply won’t deal with H1b now unless you have 3 years remaining. They don’t want to deal with immediate sponsorship process. Hearing alot of problems in Indian community.

  78. No One says:

    Those China to California container shipping rates had soared to all time highs and were never sustainable. After the 90% drop they are basically back to around where they had been for the prior decade. Normal low pricing now.
    It’s pretty much a clickbait headline. Not untrue but lacking context. The big news was how Covid and the mismanagement of California’s container terminals had screwed up container shipping and driven costs dramatically higher, temporarily.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The greatest advantage you can have is your work ethic

    Most people aren’t willing to do the hard work

    That’s your advantage”

  80. Phoenix says:

    12:32 I wouldn’t trust You to assemble a Lego kit.

    Taken plenty of Bimmer shifter knobs out of guys like you.

    Supposedly you types fall in the shower on these things, don’t know why you bring them in there…

  81. Ex says:

    Work ethic is great, but once macro economics crashes the party…..you & everybody else is screwed.

  82. Phoenix says:

    But did you get ass cheek implants?

    We get paid good money to install these. No boomer Medicare cheapskate microdollars.

    Before they are installed they get a strong slap to make sure they work properly.

  83. Fast Eddie says:

    In other news Goblin Mode is Oxford’s word of the year. It’s defined as one who leads a lazy, slovenly, self-indulgent hedonistic life style, rejecting typical societal norms and no interest in self- improvement.

    A democrat leader’s dream society. It’s what they’re striving for. One side offers opportunity while the dems become opportunists. One side encourages using advantage, the other simply takes advantage. The Goblin dems are winning… this once great nation is wobbling on it’s axis. Theft and crime are rampant, the pillars of achievement have been redefined and rules are now open to personal interpretation.

  84. Phoenix says:

    No one works harder than an 8 year old girl in China, a 9 year old girl in Korea, a ten year old boy in Vietnam, or a Guatemalan cutting down your tree in NJ.

    “The greatest advantage you can have is your work ethic (no, the greatest advantage you can have is hiring someone else with a great work ethic and paying them the least you can to do the most amount of work you can get from them)

    Most people aren’t willing to do the hard work”

  85. 3b says:

    Fast: I have to say, a lot you say is true. It just seems like chaos out there now; people just don’t give a shite! People have gone mad!

  86. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Why would anyone waste money on ass implants??

  87. Fast Eddie says:

    3b: The CEO for Walmart mentioned this morning that theft is higher than ever and will lead to store closures and higher prices. Spread this story across every business from the corner store on up and the same applies. Shops are closing everywhere. It’s as if crime has been acceptable or law enforcement and the courts have given up. We’re becoming a society void of character, responsibility and integrity. Our children are not only becoming illiterate but they’re being poisoned by some warped progressive ideology that is just devastating. We need to somehow reverse this trend.

  88. chicagofinance says:

    No One: also saw on Bloomberg TV yesterday Gene Seroka, Executive Director of Port of Los Angeles. He said that 25% of freight (total, not China specific) was redirected to East Coast and Gulf due to the lack of reliability. Mostly it was CA bureaucracy and union demands. He admitted 5% is likely permanent, but the rest will eventually come back.

    No One says:
    December 7, 2022 at 2:08 pm
    Those China to California container shipping rates had soared to all time highs and were never sustainable. After the 90% drop they are basically back to around where they had been for the prior decade. Normal low pricing now.
    It’s pretty much a clickbait headline. Not untrue but lacking context. The big news was how Covid and the mismanagement of California’s container terminals had screwed up container shipping and driven costs dramatically higher, temporarily.

  89. Bystander says:

    Progressive policy? Sure, I bet one lane open and 10 self-checkouts with no-one watching if people scanning items..that sounds more like reason. You want more automation and less employess so Walton can continue to rake billions while dumping wage slaves on tax payers. You then want to $13/hr security guard to chase and tackle people. Either take your business seriously or not. Shop-lifting has always existed, even in great 50s Ed. You just have less people watching now.

  90. Ex says:

    3:25 if only we had a leader willing to install themselves as a supreme leader.
    A rotund fatass rapey cheating lying scumbag to lead us!!??

    The dissonance is strong with this one.

  91. Libturd says:

    Shoplifting bad. Insurrection good. Shoplifting bad. Rape babies good. Shoplifting bad. Straight marriage good. Shoplifting bad. Guns (the leading killer of children) good.

    I can go on.

  92. Ex says:

    Sadly it smacks of brainwashing.

  93. No One says:

    I have a new career concept for a veterinarian. Pet mortality consultant. People are now starting to do with their pets what they do for people, namely, spend huge money on the last few days of their lives. The pet mortality consultant would be an unbiased expert who you can hire to make the decision of whether to euthanize Sparky for a couple hundred dollars or spend $5,000 to have him suffer for a year or two, or another couple days. People don’t want to feel guilty about putting their pet to sleep when there’s some remote chance of saving them for a little while longer. Consultant gets paid $1000 to weigh the evidence with no vested interests (like the pet hospital) or emotional investment (you and your family). I’d guess an objective consultant would choose “put Sparky to sleep” 90% of the time. Like most people did 40 years ago.

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Nobody asks what they do with the carcasses for the sundry animals put down that aren’t cremated.

    They have oil drum sized barrels where they toss the detritus in various states of rigor mortis. The bio-hazard garbage company doesn’t come every day……. you get the idea.

    No One says:
    December 7, 2022 at 4:29 pm
    I have a new career concept for a veterinarian. Pet mortality consultant. People are now starting to do with their pets what they do for people, namely, spend huge money on the last few days of their lives. The pet mortality consultant would be an unbiased expert who you can hire to make the decision of whether to euthanize Sparky for a couple hundred dollars or spend $5,000 to have him suffer for a year or two, or another couple days. People don’t want to feel guilty about putting their pet to sleep when there’s some remote chance of saving them for a little while longer. Consultant gets paid $1000 to weigh the evidence with no vested interests (like the pet hospital) or emotional investment (you and your family). I’d guess an objective consultant would choose “put Sparky to sleep” 90% of the time. Like most people did 40 years ago.

  95. Phoenix says:

    Phoenix: Why would anyone waste money on ass implants??

    Who knows? I can’t begin to tell you the stories every day about what humans do to each other or themselves for entertainment or pleasure.

    Who am I to judge? You want ’em in, we will install them. It’s capitalism, money to be made.

    Someone wants to spend 40k giving their cat a cancer treatment (real story) hey it’s your money to spend, go ahead cat lady.

    Plenty of human hospitals run animals through their MRI machines at night when they are sitting unused as long as cat lady wants to pay. Cha Ching.

  96. Grim says:

    Places my wife works has better imaging equipment than most human hospitals, MRI, CT, and digital X-ray.

    Shit I’ve seen I’m most human hospitals is archaic in comparison.

  97. Grim says:

    There is someone whose name is on a lot of car dealerships in NJ that has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a single dog.

  98. Phoenix says:

    I wanna be at a Walmart when they are running through the store stealing everything. I’ll get one of those fold up camping chairs, a coke and some snacks, and enjoy the show.

    Now I don’t want to be at DisneyLand when some principal jumps off a parking deck thanks to what his ex wife did. This guy I have sympathy for. RIP.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11507851/Man-killed-Disneyland-saw-suicide-way-toxic-marriage-daughter-says.html#reader-comments

  99. Juice Box says:

    re: Shoplifting at Walmart.

    CEO of Target said losses this year are around $400 Million, Walmart must be in the Billions, it is easy to rob their self checkout…

    My Whole Foods now has bottle security caps on the expensive liquor. Worker there told me that the inventory they did this year showed north of $50,000 in losses. There recently was a robbery too dude rolled a whole shopping cart out the door filled with liquor.

  100. SmallGovConservative says:

    Ex says:
    December 6, 2022 at 9:54 pm
    “Georgia goes Blue. Senate firmly in the hands of the Left.”

    Good news if you like open borders, crime and trannies in the military. I’m sure Vlad and Xi are delighted to know that another useless patsy will be helping to govern the US of A for the next few years.

  101. Ex says:

    I think the best business idea is a mobile tattoo removal van. Cha-Ching

  102. Juice Box says:

    My friend’s ex-wife spent like 12 grand to save the cat. Chemo dose was like $400 a treatment and the radiation was like $1000 a treatment. Toonces only made it another year, but it was not the cancer that got him, his drinking and driving caught up with him.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fvsItXYgzk

    It’s not the main reason why they divorced (she was a serial cheater) but it didn’t help their relationship when she invested more in the cat then him. Luckily he has since met a nice woman who so far is not crazy and does not have a cat.

  103. SmallGovConservative says:

    leftwing says:
    December 6, 2022 at 10:50 am
    “Poshmark and their inane commercials…really agitates me having some chirpy little spinner whirling through a walk-in closet talking about how she ‘makes’ money reselling the leopard print shit…Can’t believe I was actually stupid enough at one point in life to marry something similar…”

    Have to admit, I actually find this particularly ditzy female trait somewhat endearing and funny. What I don’t find funny is that these same women, so clearly lacking in logic and reason, get to vote for the president. Hard to believe there are actually some men that vote in lockstep with these dingbats; see Ex, Flab, etc…

  104. SmallGovConservative says:

    Juice Box says:
    December 7, 2022 at 5:07 pm
    “My friend’s ex-wife spent like 12 grand to save the cat…”

    Guilty of the same thing, though not that much. Vet costs, always high, are now extortionate thanks to Bidenflation. Nonetheless, never regretted a dime that I spent on a pet, or donated to an animal welfare cause.

  105. Libturd says:

    That’s what we did. My dog was smiling the whole way to his death. He was three years past his life expectancy and would shit all over the house every night. We changed his diet, even stopped feeding him for a day, but the runs just wouldn’t stop. There were potential options available to us from our Montclair vet. For $800, they could check for cancer, but probably couldn’t treat it. For $600, they could check for a blockage, though the vet said it was unlikely, but would be the next step after cancer testing. Of course, neither charge would fix the dog. That would be additional. So figure at least $1,500 minimum, if we were lucky. We only paid $1,000 for him in the first place. I felt terrible putting him down, so we went to one of those pet clinics for a second opinion. They gave him an IV bag of nutrition to which he perked up a bit, but it didn’t stop his diarrhea. We put him down at the vet. It was still pretty expensive, even though we opted for the group cremation and nothing back. Pets are a bloody fortune!

  106. Juice Box says:

    Chi – re: “Nobody asks what they do with the carcasses for the sundry animals put down that aren’t cremated.”

    Well I ain’t nobody I asked…..

    Ever see Fight Club? Well that is a take on what really happens but in the movie they substitute the fat with human lipo for dramatic cinematic effect.

    59 billion pounds of discarded animal parts, render out the fat and proteins, and sell them to companies that make cosmetics, soap, fertilizer, and pet food. Dar Pro is the biggest one they collect everything.

    As far as Fido and Fluffy Newark had a problem a few years ago, huge amount of dead ones not incinerated. They take in thousands of animals every year too.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Current bubble…

    “$COWZ is now $10b in assets, joining an elite ETF club with only 124 other members (of mostly Big Five products). This thing spent five years in oblivion during The ARK Era and then boom, the Fed hikes, everyone values fundamentals again and it’s Inflow City for COWZ.”

  108. Ex says:

    sMall dIcK cOnsErVative

  109. Juice Box says:

    Pet or Parent cancer sucks..

    My FIL is now in the Hospital, he woke up pissing blood, and turns out he has tumor on his kidney, a big one, doc said it takes 5 years to get that big. It’s coming out Monday, the tumor and maybe the kidney(s). So far lungs and brain scans are clear and no markers in the blood. He was supposed to be coming here in a week for Christmas. We might fly out there now, it’s wait and see as to what is going to happen.
    Anyway been reading up these new cancer vaccines and treatments….Very promising stuff..

  110. joyce says:

    https://youtu.be/oS-MIdnwWPg

    During divorce proceedings between Matthew Gibson and his ex-wife, Raleigh County family-court judge Louise Goldston personally forced her way into Matthew’s home to search for items that were in dispute.
    https://ij.org/case/west-virginia-judicial-field-trip/

  111. Hughesrep says:

    Had a vet actually come to the house when it was time. Dog went to sleep laying in her spot in the back yard, about as good as it gets I think.

    Still rough to watch it happen. For the cost you’d think they’d bring someone else along to help load the body, nope I had to do it.

    Paying for a dog? So many in the shelters. On my second rescue.

    Some people get a golden lab, some get a black lab, I got a meth lab.

  112. 3b says:

    Juice: Sorry about your FIL; hopefully everything goes well.

  113. Libturd says:

    Hughes. This was a very long time ago and we had a baby on the way. The shelter thing was not IN vogue yet. Today, I would definitely get a shelter shepherd.

  114. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    My dad’s dying of cancer most likely in the coming weeks of months. It sucks. Best of luck to yours. My dad was born in 33 and lived a good life.

  115. No One says:

    Lost my cockapoo a year ago to a rapid cancer, age 9. Was one of the sweetest dogs I’d ever seen, and my wife had a super close bond with her. We must have spent over $5k in her last couple weeks, and if she’d have lived long enough could have been more. The cost wasn’t an issue for us, but objectively, people shouldn’t be doing this sort of stuff, especially people who cannot afford it. Fortunately the cancer specialist vet was a hard-headed sort of woman not trying to pitch the idea our dog was going to be the 1 in 100 that magically recovered if you just dump enough money into advanced treatment. This dog was a bit unlucky in lifespan but had a super-happy life, what saddens me is that so many of those happy memories got clouded by those sad and sick ones at the end. My dad had a dog who lived to about 13 and was getting old and next time I came to visit my dad told me that the dog walked off into the woods and never came back. Maybe my dad was smart and tough enough to help that old dog go gently into the night and then tell the family a story that sounds like how a tough old dog would just disappear into nature when he was ready to go. Or maybe it really did happen that way. But we have no sad memories with that dog, and back then, people didn’t rack up huge bills to prop up old sick pets. It was better for the people and the pets, I think.

  116. Juice Box says:

    Yes it’s sucks getting old sucks. When I joined this blog over a decade ago I mentioned what my plan was if I am terminal. Get a sailboat and head off into the sunset.. That was the plan. Yet now I have to rethink that as it’s no longer Chemo and Radiation like it’s been for 60 years, the new treatments are simply incredible.

    As I mentioned if you have time take a look at the latest research. Here is one on Melanoma. Doc takes a sample of you own immune cells (tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes) to the to lab to be grown and multiplied until they number in the billions into an army now formidable enough to take on the tumor, and then injected to fight it off.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cancer/melanoma-new-immunotherapy-cancer-treatment-rcna60468

    There are lots more including vaccines using mRNA like Covid.

  117. grim says:

    Always gotta ask yourself, who are you doing it for, you or the dog? If you are doing it for you, that’s just selfish, even if the money is no issue at all, sometimes that’s even worse.

    Go out for cheeseburgers, steaks, whatever, end it on a good note.

    I’ve balled like a baby every time.

  118. Juice Box says:

    No One- Canada has a bit of scandal these days do to their progressive euthanasia program. They offer it to nearly anyone too.

    One of many stories.

    https://nypost.com/2022/11/08/canadian-man-assisted-suicide-being-pushed-on-me-by-hospital/

  119. Phoenix says:

    “During divorce proceedings between Matthew Gibson and his ex-wife, Raleigh County family-court judge Louise Goldston personally forced her way into Matthew’s home to search for items that were in dispute.”

    If he stole those items I find it hard to have sympathy for him. Someone who seizes possession of a house’s entire contents and doesn’t give back what is rightfully owned deserves to be treated like a common criminal.

    Not saying what this judge did was right- but if he denied those things were there when it was obvious ( the video showed them taking pictures) that they were there, legally or not he should be lit on fire.

    You don’t want to be married, split and go your own way. You don’t get to seize.

  120. Phoenix says:

    Just go to Paterson with 50 bucks when you want to go out.

    What are they going to do, prosecute you?

    Ohh, that was too fast. NJ would prosecute a dead body and bill the estate for it.

    “Canada has a bit of scandal these days do to their progressive euthanasia program. They offer it to nearly anyone too.”

  121. Phoenix says:

    Juice

    Sorry.

    U2 Lib.

  122. Juice Box says:

    No One. We have a Cockapoo, we got her from far away Iowa during the lockdown. I mentioned her previously, wife and son are allergic but my children were immensely depressed during lockdown, we researched and presto this dog really is hypoallergenic. I kid you not there is not a single dog hair anywhere in my house. No shedding at all…

    Anyway, I was a cat person but I caved and we got the dog. She has made an immense difference in my children’s lives more than any cat would for sure. Only problem is she keeps me up at night likes to snuggle way more than my wife that is for sure….

  123. Phoenix says:

    Matt Gibson worked as a law enforcement officer for 22 years according to the video.

    Who is better equipped to know the law, how to steal and not get caught other than a cop?
    A lawyer, perhaps. But both should be great at it.

  124. Juice Box says:

    Where is the follow up folks? Judge is in hot water….

    “In a case that could set a new precedent in the rarely unpierced shield of immunity enjoyed by judges, a West Virginia man has won approval to sue a family court judge over an unusual search and seizure she conducted of his home in a divorce case she was presiding over.

    Raleigh County Judge Louise Goldston is asking the 4th Circuit of Appeals to dismiss the suit on the basis that she has judicial immunity as a judge.

    However, two courts have already denied Goldston immunity, with one court concluding her actions were unconstitutional and the other court concluding she acted outside of her authority.

    Both rulings were unusual with a long history of courts denying countless citizen lawsuits filed against judges around the United States for alleged wrongdoings, some seemingly far greater than Goldston’s act.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/family-court-judge-loses-immunity-after-searching-mans-home_4882415.html

  125. Juice Box says:

    Equal justice…

    Former Theranos executive Sunny Balwani gets nearly 13 years in prison for his role in company’s fraud
    Balwani’s sentence is longer than the more than 11 years company founder Elizabeth Holmes got last month.

  126. BRT says:

    Can’t get another dog personally. I had a brother die when I was young. I learned to somehow turn off the emotional switch inside me as a survival mechanism. That was the only way to get through it. Never learned how to turn it back on. So whenever a family member or friend dies, I’m unfazed by it. But for whatever reason, when my last dog died, it was like a part of me died. 15 years ago and I’m still upset by it.

  127. Phoenix says:

    BRT,
    I’m with you. Ex wife killed my last dog.

    I’m done.

  128. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    That’s my world too. I don’t get freaked out about death. I don’t see humans much differently than I see lanternflies.

  129. Libturd says:

    Now that I think about it, I like a lot of lanternflies better. They don’t choose to be invasive. It’s in their DNA.

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