From Insider:
Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, reopening the housing market for 3 million home buyers, according to Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, and that could help reopen the housing market to about 3 million buyers who were priced, according to Freddie Mac.
The government-sponsored enterprise said that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched lower to 6.09% on Thursday, notching its fourth-straight week of declines. That’s the lowest rates have been since peaking at over 7% in November of last year, Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement.
“This one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the median home price,” Khater added.
Mortgage rates skyrocketed over the course of 2022, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes aimed at taking some heat out of the economy.
From the MPA:
US mortgage rates fall from November peak following Fed rate hike
Long-term US mortgage rates slipped following the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in its monetary policy tightening.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a low of 6.09% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s down from 6.13% a week ago and nearly a full point drop from November’s peak of over 7%, providing a boost for mortgage-ready homebuyers.
“According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the median home price,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said.
From CNBC:
Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September
The average rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen to 5.99%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
The housing market hasn’t seen the rate with a five handle since a brief blip in early September. Before that, it was in early August.
The rate started this week at 6.21% and fell sharply Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” which was a shift from previous language.
That sent bond yields lower, and mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
“Measured steps can continue as long as the economic and inflation data is there to support them. This means rates can make progress down into the 5′s but are unlikely to stampede quickly into the 4′s,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “I’m not saying that won’t happen–just that it would take a bit more time than some of the rate rallies we remember from the past.”
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George Santos is fitting in a 10 year congressional career of improprieties ,etc in like 2 months…..
Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, and that could help reopen the housing market to about 3 million buyers who were priced, according to Freddie Mac.
What exactly does it mean to be ‘priced’? But yay on the 6% rate, that means chubby Mary can stay firm on her price. It’s warranted! Solid buy/sell price means movement. The housing syndicate will shoe horn buyers into those overpriced shit boxes come hell and high water! Price be damned! Look at how much cheaper your monthly payments are, Muffin! Why they don’t have 40 and 50 year fixed mortgages is beyond me. A sale is a sale, is it not?
Kudos to the kids on TikTok that did the China China spy balloon cover
Fast: Leisure and hospitality were the bulk of the job increases, followed by the government sectors. Leisure and hospitality sector employment still below pre- pandemic level. Bars and restaurants took a big chunk of that gain. These are not exactly high wage and benefits jobs, but they are jobs from a purely numbers view.
As for the falling mtg rates Fed can’t be happy about that , as falling rates are inflationary. From the Feds view they need to keep tightening, not the one more in March than pause then cut rates as the market seems to believe. It’s clear to me the markets clearly don’t believe the Fed, so we will shall see.
3B: The lower paid job adds skew the wage inflation data. I think there is embedded pressure, but the job mix makes it appear the numbers are moderating.
That said, left was right.
Chatbot wars heating up.
“Google has invested $300 million into an OpenAI and ChatGPT rival, officially joining the race to create the best generative AI. The tech giant is taking a 10% stake in Anthropic and its AI model Claude, The Financial Times reports. Anthropic’s short history is full of big players — former OpenAI researchers founded the startup in 2021 and raised $580 million in funding last April, mostly from the now disgraced FTX. Google’s announcement comes weeks after Microsoft, LinkedIn’s parent company, invested $10 billion into OpenAI.”
1987
Give Santos a break, he was busy yesterday shooting down the balloon.
Light Sunday reading I found amusing…actually real estate related.
https://thehustle.co/the-manhattan-high-rise-that-shrunk-itself-down/
chi, you post, and no comment on the Red?!
Distracted a bit last night. CN put up 48 points and my son netted 20 of them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNHSAthletics/status/1622238052813836291
Why did the right not push for the Jewish space laser to shoot down the balloon?
Left: Did the Red fall in pairwise after the game?
No, ‘bad wins’ don’t take you down…ha!
Hanging in at 12, Michigan Tech did pole vault to 10 though…
Go Red!
China China spy balloon cover.
Link?
These spy balloons have been flying for a while. This is the 2nd incursion during Biden’s reign and there may have been three during Trump’s reign. One was actually shot down off shore and these balloons have been sited in multiple countries besides ours.
Not sure what the big deal is. You could read a magazine a person was holding from a satellite thirty years ago.
Lib; Apparently the first one in Biden’s term and the three during Trump administration were undetectable until they had passed over the continent. I don’t understand that , but that’s what Defense Department saying.
I have a feeling the defense department chose not to share certain things with Trump, which in light of so many other things, would not surprise me. Though, I don’t believe that’s right. Regardless, these spy satellites remind me of North Korea shooting rockets into the sea or the Russians doing military training near Alaska. You can’t ignore it, but it’s pretty much virtue signaling at best.
Especially when you consider how we send drones all around the world blowing up weddings and the such.
Talk of 2Y going sub-4. Now trading north of 440. Holy fuckballs! Inversion going north of 80.
10Y was 340, now 363
Left was right
Why did the right not push for the Jewish space laser to shoot down the balloon?
It wasn’t a kosher balloon?
How Americans feel about China, yet boomer sent all of it’s manufacturing over there, and boomer keeps buying consumer goods made there. Silly Americans addicted to technology built by those they despise, yet will still buy it and enjoy it instead of taking their over BMI body out for a daily walk in nature.
“China is a cancer on the planet. That country is nothing but poison and destruction.
China is the biggest enemy of the west by miles. Forget Russia,they are small potatoes.
Oh Shut Up China!
Hey China: **extended middle finger**
Test run for an EMP to take out the power grid..Thanks Potato Joe.
China is like Russia, if its talking, then it’s lies.
I wouldn’t trust China one inch. North Korea and Russia likewise.
F China.”
Shorted XRT this morning. Looking for a quick hit and run, 30 days +/-. I see lines around 74.75 and 67.50. Not market cap weighted so a lot of junk in there that has run, and little ability for movement in a market leading name to pull it out. Technical overbought on widely used daily RSI (not that great an indicator, but…) and a respected technical analyst with a very solid record who can move individual stocks went bearish on Friday. Risk is bounce back to prior level, and through, which could break out.
This with INTC are my shorts. Plus a short term calendar on GOOG, but that is against a decent size long. Was hoping to have more but got paralysis through analysis this weekend…major longs in addition to GOOG are META and SPY which as I’ve mentioned are ‘boxed’, ie returns for this year pre-determined. Will trade my left nut for solid long ideas that will give me upside delta if this market decides to run.
“Not sure what the big deal is. You could read a magazine a person was holding from a satellite thirty years ago.”
Love you brother but you consistently downplay the Left’s shortcomings yet it was always hair on fire, the world is ending with DJT. You would lose your shit over the man’s tweets FFS. If I had time I’d search how many times you’ve typed ‘no big deal’ re: the Biden Admin.
Difference on the balloon vs satellite is at least threefold…it hovers, so can capture a much longer time frame; it can look wider with less altitude so can capture an entirely different perspective as it hovers (ie, like the difference between an 18mm lens and a 200mm lens on your old analog Canon camera); and apparently at least according to that temple of unbiased accuracy the NYT that low an altitude most importantly allowed tracking of on ground communications which systems were apparently just changed for much of that command.
Regarding prior incursions indications are most were over Hawaii…while still troubling – Pac Fleet base – much different than flying something over the entire US and our nukes that any citizen walking their dog in the flight path could look up and see…aside from the tactical differences above that is a major ‘fuck you’.
On military commanders using their ‘judgement’ to withhold critical defense based information from our popularly elected leader (of any Party) that is literally the definition of a military junta. If accurate, they should be immediately court marshalled regardless of rank or current position. There is no circumstance in a representative democracy where the military gets to substitute its opinions/wishes/judgements over those of elected leaders.
But, again, it was DJT…so no big deal, right Lib?
Lefty I think we all know the deck is stacked. We need term limits. Yesterday.
We need a better class of public servant!
I wish there were a national term limit movement….that could be quite bipartisan…
chi, congrats on your son’s game.
Nothing’s Kosher. The name of my first klezmer metal album. Stay tuned.
Insurance adjuster, their roofing inspector, and roofing contractor just left. We’re getting a new roof.
Insurance will pay for a new 30 year asphalt roof and gutters and downspouts minus our deductible. If we go solar we would pay the difference between insurance and deductible. The government would give us a 30% rebate on the difference. It would be roughly 14-16k extra to get solar shingles. If it will save us at least $1,500 a year I want to do it. A double digit annual tax free return on it would be great.
To find out how much we would save we have to take pictures of our breaker box and send a years worth of electric bills to the contractor. GAF will create a report showing our much electricity we would save.
Tankers flying-means fighters flying. They were watching it closely. No one just let it do anything. Defense department was always watching.
https://bit.ly/3l2XkVu
The government would give us a 30% rebate on the difference.
A double digit annual tax free return on it would be great.
Is this a Republican or Democratic tax break?
Left, it is a big deal.
And I don’t drink the Hi-C,
What’s your defense for our drones? 3,000 people killed in the last two decades and our fleet of drones is up to 40,000.
And we are all plotzing over a balloon with cameras on it.
That’s my point. It wasn’t partisan at all. The idea of having to shoot it down to prove your beer muscles was way more partisan.
A few years ago, a well-liked family, with kids in the Montclair schools was found to be a Russian Spy family. You are kidding yourself if you don’t think there are multi-generational Chinese families over here who are also spies. Those balloons collect pictures of facilities where spies probably already work. Again, this is a relative nothing. The spy family in Montclair was a heck of a story. That should have been front page news. Not a stupid balloon with some high res cameras on it.
Yup, watched it cross the entire United-fucking-States.
I can poke my head into any suburban basement full of high schoolers and there will be bottles of water filled with vodka. I can ‘watch’ that too. Or do something.
“What’s your defense for our drones? 3,000 people killed in the last two decades and our fleet of drones is up to 40,000.”
Don’t know. Don’t care. Not on my soil. If you really care about my opinion I’ll look and revert. If we are ‘wrong’, then we are wrong. But on that topic I’m sure right v. wrong will be pretty subjective.
“And we are all plotzing over a balloon with cameras on it. That’s my point. It wasn’t partisan at all. The idea of having to shoot it down to prove your beer muscles was way more partisan.”
Conflating two issues (three, if you throw in the ‘Montclair spy family’ red herring) doesn’t diminish one.
I’m not partisan on the balloon at all either…if this circumstance happened during DJT’s term I would have the exact same reaction…you don’t allow another country hostile to your interests to float an intelligence gathering aircraft across 2,000 miles of your country, over your most sensitive military installations, and over population centers.
It gets shot down when it crosses your border. Full stop.
What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-bahrain-hotel-dc-231941
Who was that supposed peace accord with?
They are all the same. Trump was certainly no better than Biden.
Again, I align with the Center on this one. This showed up in my mailbox 1 minute ago, btw.
From Tangle.
My take.
Reminder: “My take” is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism, or compliments, don’t unsubscribe. You can reply to this email and write in. If you’re a subscriber, you can also leave a comment.
They made the right choice to wait, and it is clearly a spy balloon.
I’m not sure how big of a deal any of this really is — it’s just us seeing the things we usually don’t.
The real story will be how Blinken and the U.S. proceed once this meeting in China inevitably happens.
Well, we all learned a lot about espionage and spy balloons this week.
A few obvious points to get out of the way: Yes, I think it is a “spy” balloon. China’s explanation was laughably unconvincing, much like the United States’ explanations are when we’re caught in similar positions. No, shooting the thing down over land was not a good option, as evidenced by the reported seven mile debris field we saw after it got shot down over the ocean. And yes, both countries have long been routinely participating in these kinds of spying operations.
But there is something about the whole episode, to me, that feels like something went amiss. Sebastian Mallaby did a nice job documenting all the ways the U.S. has notched foreign policy wins over China in the last few years, and made a strong case that — given its successive losses on the global stage — Chinese officials are probably interested in thawing things out with their American counterparts right now. Even the reliably conservative Washington Examiner editorial board referenced Biden’s “significant recent foreign policy successes achieved against China.” So why would China do something like this now, just days ahead of a Secretary of State visit intended to bring things back to an even keel?
Perhaps it was an honest mistake, though not one of a weather balloon. Maybe it was a low-ranking intelligence officer’s mistake, a miscommunication, or something else. I doubt we’ll get much clarity soon, as China seems committed to their largely unconvincing storyline. If it was intended as a provocation, it’s hard to see why. The timing doesn’t fit, and aside from creating a little bit of furor here in the states (which will be forgotten as soon as the next news cycle arrives), I’m not sure what China had to gain.
In the grand scheme of things I think this story is being blown wildly out of proportion. The United States has far more intrusive spying methods than hot air balloons, and they are active not just in China but across the globe. Any Americans not aware of the constant surveillance we and our adversaries (and allies) participate in may have just had their eyes opened, and it’s easy to understand how the spectacle of an F-22 fighter jet shooting down a Chinese spy balloon could be so alarming.
But it’s important to me that cool-headed government officials don’t fall into the media trap of overreaction. Demands to recall ambassadors or further isolate ourselves are a major overreaction to a rather ordinary event — albeit one with much more public spectacle than usual. I imagine Blinken will simply reschedule his visit to China, China will continue to apologize, we’ll keep spying on each other and everyone will move on.
The real question is how we will move on. We’ve had success in allying nations like India, Japan and Australia against China militarily; committing to an onslaught of trade and technology policies designed to weaken China’s aims for global leadership; and have continued to put out signs of military support for Taiwan. How an event like this could alter the current diplomatic state of play is where the real meat of this story is. Secretary Blinken was presumably going to address these positions on his trip to China, but now we’ll anxiously await that visit, and what comes of it, whenever he follows through.
As an American I would be more concerned with Pegasus vs a balloon.
boomer gave America to the Chinese. Can’t complain about it now.
The exodus of American manufacturers certainly tempers Clinton’s tenure.
Greed and corporate profits have been a huge driver in both parties selling out of the American worker. Management got rich. Does anybody want to assemble phones???
House a few doors down went on the market this weekend for low 7s, shocked by the price. Should be priced high 5s low 6s. There is only 8 homes on the market in my town, 5 are dumps
The dream has always been to sell in the frothy times. Make bank, which by my calculations would be $450k’ish…. get out of the high priced places and retreat to somewhere cheaper. Retirement ready…
Trick
Any of them smell like Hai Karate and cabbage? I hear people pay up for those.
Did somebody say Hai Karate?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtwh3nQP5Uo
What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?
The Chinese threatened to cut off funds to the Penn O’Biden center until they got all the pictures they wanted so the vegetable had to wait until China gave him the nod.
Trick,
House a few doors down went on the market this weekend for low 7s
Let us know when it goes under contract. I see ‘for sale’ signs go up here and a week later they’re under contract. Approximately what area do you live?
It gets shot down when it crosses your border. Full stop.
Liberals don’t have the stomach for conflict. They preach and attack in packs, like Hyenas nipping at a wounded animal. They use the ‘hit and run’ method. Compromise to liberals is when you agree 100%. Otherwise, you’re a __phobe and __ist.
INTC down 5.4% today. Took half my shorts from last Wed and Fri off….
Thank you sclerotic America.
The famous claim that a home increased in value by $100Ks after a white “front couple” pitched it instead of a Black family was apparently b/s – the 2nd pitch took place 7 moths later, involved new appraisers, and followed a 30% upswing in the market…
https://twitter.com/wil_da_beast630/status/1622642902542188547?s=46&t=KvWFNgCKbGVh0luTsZR_TQ
“What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?”
Incompetence, indecision, the unusually weird deference to China he’s shown, bad first political instinct to hide than disclose…?
Your Tangle buddy is off-point more than once….
“No, shooting the thing down over land was not a good option, as evidenced by the reported seven mile debris field we saw after it got shot down over the ocean.”
Wrong…first the ‘debris field’ referenced was mostly balloon, you can see with your own eyes the metal dropped like a stone. Second, even taking the point of the seven mile field again it is fucking wilderness up there in Idaho and MT…look at the earlier post here with the tankers flight pattern, it is crystal clear the thing came over the National Park. Nobody lives there.
“Maybe it was a low-ranking intelligence officer’s mistake, a miscommunication, or something else.”
This shows your buddy is a putz…first, pure speculation as indicated by the ‘or something else’ but more importantly if he believes that a Chinese spy dirigible pathway over the continental United States was dictated by a ‘low ranking officer’ he’s clueless. Those decisions anywhere, particularly in a system like the Chinese, are not relegated to ‘low ranking officers’. Moreover even if it were a mistake then the CCP just steps in and fixes it. That flight had clearance at the highest levels.
Can’t believe I’m responding to something like this, feels Pumpkin-esque typing a reply…
Oh, and I missed this gem…
“China will continue to apologize…”
His facts aren’t even correct, China protested our response and specifically said they reserve the right to act against us for this incident….
Pumpkin.
“House a few doors down went on the market this weekend for low 7s, shocked by the price. Should be priced high 5s low 6s. There is only 8 homes on the market in my town, 5 are dumps”
The amount of new building still going on down in FL is mind boggling….everywhere….luxury rentals, new homes…I have no idea who is going to buy all this stuff….
His bank account.
Libturd says:
February 6, 2023 at 11:59 am
What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?
Alternatively, deer in the headlights……
Libturd says:
February 6, 2023 at 11:59 am
What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?
The amount of new building still going on down in FL is mind boggling
Within the last two days, I drove through Little Falls and Old Tappan, both towns adding a sickening number of units. The number of condos/apartments or whatever the fuck they are is staggering!!! And I mean, staggering. It is unbelievable the amount of building and the number of rentals that are being constructed. Almost every town is adding hundreds and hundreds of units.
Fast: Oradell, and Emerson too.
FL is notorious for overbuilding when times are good. So there is that.
Jersey on the other hand….I dunno. It must be the weather.
All hands on Deck at Google shots fired! Man the turrets load the cannons!!
……Microsoft has a surprise announcement tomorrow. They actually got BING to work!!..
https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/6/23574185/microsoft-event-date-time-openai-bing-chatgpt
From another Verge story today too.
“Online search and advertising are Google’s biggest sources of income. The potential that its business could be threatened by Microsoft incorporating OpenAI’s GPT-4 into the Bing search engine has raised alarm bells internally.
Google has pulled engineers from other projects to work on building a rival AI chatbot-powered search, and CEO Sundar Pichai promised to produce results soon. “I’m excited by the AI-driven leaps we’re about to unveil in search and beyond,” Pichai said in a statement, reported by Bloomberg.
Google’s AI model – LaMDA – will be made available “in the coming weeks and months,” and Pichai promised that people will soon be able to use language models “as a companion to search.” How AI-powered search has been incorporated Google Search, Maps, and more will be unveiled next week, according to an invite for a live event on February 8 received by The Verge.
The presentation will reportedly reveal “the power of AI to reimagine how people search for, explore and interact with information, making it more natural and intuitive than ever before to find what you need.”
re:” FL is notorious for overbuilding when times are good.”
Nah it’s planned by 2050 the Central Florida Megaregion may have a population of 20 million.
Last time I was down in Orlando/Tampa area the I-4 corridor area had development roads cut into ever single sideroad I drove on. All waiting for new strip malls to be built and new high density mixed use housing etc. There are already 400 new distribution centers built from the port all the way up the highway, so you can get your Walmart or Amazon junk delivered the same day. Central Florida megaregion expected to double in population into the next 25 years or so.
Bergen Co is not the suburbs anymore. It is more urban and densely populated in many towns. At some point towns will have to consolidate.
I’ll bite. My take on northern NJ overbuilding is the following formula.
+NJ’s local fiefdom’s politics create control to locally connected RE. Take a look at FtLee and the Sokolich Real Estate little mob.
+A lot of small/medium size local banks that give loans to the locally connected RE speculators and had to take risk because of 0% FFR. Take a look at Fred Daibes – Mariner’s Bank, his legal charges based on what he was doing with the bank, and the bank merging with Connect One.
+No real local investigative reporting anymore, so no one notices the crookery until the Feds move in like with Daibes, maybe his old employees that robbed him were right.
= https://youtu.be/15QngStkp-E
In 2009 it was Hudson City, Fort Lee Savings, etc… 2024.. Look for the signs on the development.
Former Fed official Larry Lindsey says Powell press conference was the most counter productive he has seen. He says that although it was not his intention he gave the market the green light to push higher, with his disinflation has started, and conditions tightening. Traders interpreted these comments as tightening cycle is ending, and then cuts. He went on to say the Fed needs to recalibrate its message and make it clear that we need real higher interest rates, not neutral where we are now.
re: What’s Biden impetus NOT to shoot it down?
Military said it was a bad idea, as they new it would hit land with massive force.
They hit that balloon with a missile instead of bullets to slowly leak out the helium and descend it slowly, so it crashed insanely hard as that metal gantry apparently fell in once piece. Back of the envelop calculation… It fell from 60,000 ft means it was going nearly 600 mph and if it weighted about 4,000 lbs when it hit the water we are taking like 800 Gs of force. Really enormous splash as those solar panels were shredded the metal frame shredded and the rest of the debris cameras and sensors etc nearly obliterated. Hope the Navy has enough divers and ROVs with to go down there with tweezers and pick up all those tiny left over pieces even if they are all in a small area in water 47 ft deep. They could be at it for a while.
BTW there is a similar story of a Canadian balloon from 1998. Canadia, US and English Air Force had a tough time bringing it down with just only 20 mm autocannon rounds. They fired a few thousand rounds at it, and most likely missed as they had to be going Mach 1.5 speed to obtain the height needed to get close and the balloon was pretty much standing still at those speeds.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/weather-balloon-canada-china-1.6737831#:~:text=Canadian%20CF%2D18%20fighter%20jet,on%20over%20the%20North%20Atlantic.
3b,
You can’t have it both ways. Cry about no affordable housing for the young, and then complain about Bergen county not being a suburb anymore. If they didn’t build all these units, do you know what the price of real estate would be in Bergen county? Would easily be the most expensive property in the country….country setting right across the river from nyc…f’ing gold mine. But nope, people like you had to cry about pricing and affordable housing instead of moving to a cheaper location….smh. Thanks. Ruined a beautiful setting. Not allowed to have “only wealthy” towns now…have to throw in the affordable housing for the babies.
3b says:
February 6, 2023 at 4:31 pm
Fast: Oradell, and Emerson too.
Biggest waste of resources. It’s sickening. Wtf are these people thinking? Entire state is basically at sea level in a rising water environment combined with massive storms. Money is the root of all evil. This is no different then how greedy developers built on flood plains in nj, and left the taxpayers with the bill. Had to buy it back…can’t make this chit up. Now what do you think is going to happen in Florida and who is going to get stuck with that bill…that’s right…fed taxpayers.
Juice Box says:
February 6, 2023 at 5:10 pm
re:” FL is notorious for overbuilding when times are good.”
Nah it’s planned by 2050 the Central Florida Megaregion may have a population of 20 million.
Lol whatever you say.
“His facts aren’t even correct, China protested our response and specifically said they reserve the right to act against us for this incident….
Pumpkin.”
IG Corporates into the 5’s again for ’24’s. If Powell says something fierce tomorrow, maybe we can get back to November levels, which means an extra 30-40 bps.
Nowhere in NJ is “overbuilding”.
At best, during boom times, NJ builds 30k new housing units. For example, in 2021, the entire state of NJ issued building permits for 30,044 units. Source: (https://www.nj.gov/dca/divisions/codes/reporter/building_permits.html)
The housing stock in NJ totals about 3.5M units. Thus, AT BEST, we are building 1% of the housing supply in new construction each year.
The demand is much higher. Our housing market is distorted by overly-tight zoning and a few other policies that make building what the market demands difficult.
Nyack, NY
Officials at a New York middle school have apologized after serving students fried chicken, watermelon and waffles on the first day of Black History Month.
In a letter to parents, officials at Nyack middle school, an hour outside New York City, apologized for the “inexcusably insensitive” meal, which played off historically racist stereotypes.
“The offering of chicken and waffles as an entree with watermelon as a dessert on the first day of Black History Month was inexcusably insensitive and reflected a lack of understanding of our district’s vision to address racial bias,” said the Nyack principal, David Johnson, the local news affiliate WABC reported.
There was a time when this country knew how to handle enemy balloons!
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DKlyERnu7zUw&ved=2ahUKEwihmPnelYL9AhVMEGIAHSHMCuQQwqsBegQIEBAF&usg=AOvVaw1Ho-cYYEnsnoXzyHBKGt3N
Look at the big brain on Brad… err. Bard?
“IG Corporates into the 5’s again for ’24’s. If Powell says something fierce tomorrow, maybe we can get back to November levels, which means an extra 30-40 bps.”
With true appreciation I look at some of these moves, especially under the surface. Artwork.
Ran my favorite short screener. After market close on Friday, 636 names. Right now, 106….
Missed AFRM, just too much to look at…that one was sitting there as obvious and ugly as a monster zit on 16 year old’s forehead on prom night. Should have caught it, had it early last year (part of a pairs trade with PYPL). Missing layups against players I know pisses me off.
There are three questions that would destroy most of the arguments on the left:
1. Compared to what?
2. At what cost?
3. What hard evidence do you have?
There are very few ideas on the left that can pass all three of those kinds of things.
https://twitter.com/thomassowell/status/1621517605579403269?s=46&t=CZOqYeD-cfpJd5c52G-udg
3,000 buildings in Turkey completely collapsed, and perhaps tens of thousands are damaged beyond repair. Last time they had an earthquake that large was in 1939, and probably very few high rise buildings above one or two floors back then either. Last major quake was 24 years ago, they knew then the high rise steel and concrete buildings going up were of shoddy construction.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-earthquake-in-turkey-was-so-damaging-and-deadly/
What other things would you like people to be aware of with the risk of earthquakes?
I think it’s a reminder. I think what’s happened over the past five years is: people willed themselves to believe that earthquakes don’t occur anymore, and it’s now just floods and wildfires. So that’s definitely the view in California. It’s kind of willful blindness. It’s understandable, because it’s been a long time in California [since a major earthquake]. So this is a reminder of what can happen in a very San Andreas–like setting, that big earthquakes do happen. This is our future. And the difference between a relatively harmless earthquake and a disaster is how well we build our buildings and how well we prepare.
They are overbuilding a peninsula that is barely above sea level…Florida is the definition of willful blindness. It’s sad. They are quickly running out of water (aquifer) in Florida too, but let’s keep building. Don’t worry, the federal taxpayer will pay for it.
Chicago says:
February 7, 2023 at 8:59 am
What other things would you like people to be aware of with the risk of earthquakes?
I think it’s a reminder. I think what’s happened over the past five years is: people willed themselves to believe that earthquakes don’t occur anymore, and it’s now just floods and wildfires. So that’s definitely the view in California. It’s kind of willful blindness. It’s understandable, because it’s been a long time in California [since a major earthquake]. So this is a reminder of what can happen in a very San Andreas–like setting, that big earthquakes do happen. This is our future. And the difference between a relatively harmless earthquake and a disaster is how well we build our buildings and how well we prepare.
Peak of the curve is 9 months. 497
You can go into 2024 with trills and get well into the 480’s
Tbills
Major earthquake in CA. It’ll be nuts. Not gonna lie.
The Great Pumpkin says:
February 7, 2023 at 9:02 am
“Florida is the definition of willful blindness. They are quickly running out of water (aquifer)…Don’t worry, the federal taxpayer will pay for it.”
Fifty-five inches of rain per year in Fla; five times as much as the once-red, but now-blue western states (incl SoCal). Since it’s always Dem presidents that do the bailing out, which of these states do you really think taxpayers will end up paying for?
https://coolweather.net/extremes/wettest_driest_us_states.htm
It’s not always earthquakes. I was fortunate enough to visit Turkey on a cruise. Went on a day trip to Ephesus one of the oldest Greek and later Roman settlements on the Aegean sea. I noticed the ruins were rebuilt in some places for the tourists. I had to ask..so I did. What happens when an earthquake hits? Tour guide said all of the local villagers come together and rebuild the ruins so the tourists keep coming. It was not the earthquakes that did this ancient city in. The Küçük menderes River leading to the city from the Aegean sea silted in 5 miles from the coast do to soil erosion. So sailing ships could no longer get to the city port. Nobody wanted to ship good over land on donkey carts back then.
Turkey is a very pretty place and a modern middle east ally of ours. We should strive to keep it that way. US and even Russia are sending rescue crews. There hopefully will be many many rescues out of the rubble of those thousands of destroyed buildings.
Now that Balloonacy is over we move onto the SOTU tonight.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is giving the Republican’s response.
What can she possibly say?
Short ZIP with a short leash. Earnings 2/21, want to be out before then. Vol is an ATL, overbought at ATH. Stupid simple which is why I’m sure I’m missing something. Used to trade this one not a great record, probably 50/50. Plus JPow speaks at lunch today and everyone holding their breath. Marking this one as spec. Getting out on limbs now. Not what I usually do. Not happy.
“Sarah Huckabee Sanders is giving the Republican’s response. What can she possibly say?”
Biden will be all distorted stats…like nails on a chalkboard already for me….’created the most new jobs ever’….well, yeah, you started from an artificially lower base because your frightened little kitten liberal governors shut their freaking economies down…ie, if you lock your brakes and then come back up to speed in the right lane of the GSP you by definition have accelerated faster than the guy in the left lane who didn’t brake…yet you are both going the same speed…
Let him have his stats, arguing it will go over voters heads.
Do two things…go all Reagan on them (do you feel better about your family and country today vs. yesterday) to tap the general discontent and nervousness out there; and use the mic to set the stage for upcoming battles and low hanging fruit….eg, debt ceiling debate (we will never default but we need compromise to fix this problem) and social issues (eg, get all government out of classroom and have teachers only focus on three Rs).
Bottom line, yield on the stats as it won’t get you anything and you lose the audience. Go guttural, water the FUD and feed the anger.
Also, and this is a thin line, throw in some mockery to undercut both of them. Balloon weakness, shaking hands with invisible people, and well just about anything Harris has said ever.
FUD, seed anger, mock. Importantly, all with a smile and good nature – no shouting, no snarls, no meanness – wrap it in the velvet glove of ‘this is so unfortunate for our country, it has to change’.
You’re playing to half a dozen or ten states. Fuck the NYT and WaPo.
Small,
The Floridan aquifer: Why one of our rainiest states is worried about water
Florida’s booming population is writing a water check its aquifers can’t cash; from lawn sprinklers to kitchen faucets, Florida needs to cut back and use less water.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/partner-content-worried-about-water-floridan-aquifer
SOTU address:
It’ll be all “the soul of our country again.”
I stopped watching these cheerleading sessions with Clinton. Reagan’s were enjoyable because I was young and he was truly a great speaker.
As usual the major television networks and cable news TV channels will have it on again at 9PM. Maybe if they cut out all the breaks for applause they could get it down to a 1/2 hour….
Wapo put out an opinion yesterday that Biden should just hand in a written version and call it a night….NY Times worries that he will stutter and flub what he is trying to get across..
I worry that I will fall asleep too early lol. Actually my kid has practice tonight so I will skip most of it anyway….Lucky me.
President Biden should use that creepy WHISPER voice to make his points tonight.
It drives the wimmen wild!!
I hope Biden smells Pelosi’s hair.
“NY Times worries that he will stutter and flub what he is trying to get across..”
LOL, we should make book on whether he is the actual nominee…maybe I’ll look at those offshore sites….no way the DNC let’s that happen, he’d get buried in Pres debates that will actually occur this cycle.
Shorted SPOT. Same logic as ZIP above; same risks, same marginal track record historically with it, same short leash, same level of high spec, same level of discontent that this is what I’ve been reduced to looking for opportunities….
Maybe I’ll just play the Superbowl instead. JFC.
Biden…psssssst ameriiiica is greeeeeaaaat again
Went on a day trip to Ephesus one of the oldest Greek and later Roman settlements on the Aegean sea.
https://youtu.be/HrcbCW4y9Dw?t=41
pspspspspspsssss america has lowest unemployment…..eva……pppspspsppsps
Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be giving the side eye.
Libturd says:
February 7, 2023 at 11:02 am
“I hope Biden smells Pelosi’s hair.”
I hope he invites Paul P and makes some sappy comment about the need to end political violence. It’ll be especially poignant if Paulie shows up in his boxers.
SmallPenisConservative likes men in boxers.
San Jose, the 10th-largest city in the country with more than 1 million residents, has long been described as America’s “most forgettable” major city. That caricature has persisted even though it sits at the heart of one of the world’s most mythologized subcultures, Silicon Valley. The city is home to the headquarters of Adobe, Zoom, EBay and, in the future, Google’s largest campus.
Soon, San Jose may shed its forgettable image. In a region that is the poster child for NIMBYism, San Jose is one of the only cities with the politics necessary to build dense, sustainable housing, providing a model for progressive urban development policy.
Sprawl has been the dominant development pattern across California for decades. In 1920, San Jose was 17 square miles. By 1970, it was 120 square miles, its expansion fueled by highways and developers covering farmland with a sea of single-family homes linking San Jose to nearby towns such as Cupertino and Sunnyvale. This growth model has resulted in a statewide housing shortage of 2.5 million units and exorbitant home prices.
The housing crisis grew so acute that the state Legislature enacted a series of housing laws, including laws to fast-track affordable housing (SB 35) and to allow four units on single-family lots (SB 9). While many California cities have resisted implementing the laws, San Jose has embraced them. According to Michael Lane, the state housing policy director at SPUR, California’s largest planning think tank, “the difference between San Jose and other places, is that there is political will to actually reduce dependence on cars, and approve new housing.”
San Jose is moving toward densification in part because sprawl is not only bad for the environment, it is also expensive. The city has long struggled to pay for delivering services such as policing and firefighting over such broad territory. As cities face austerity budgets coming out of the pandemic, attracting new residents to downtown is key to balancing the budget.
Construction financing can still prove challenging, but San Jose’s policy environment is primed for building. While cities in the rest of the Bay Area tend to be zoned for low-rise development, San Jose’s downtown is zoned for high-rise buildings. And taking a lesson from cities such as Barcelona and Paris, San Jose has adopted an “urban villages” strategy, rezoning the sprawl that extends from downtown with the intent of fostering a network of additional, mini urban centers.
While permitting in most major cities is notoriously labyrinthine, San Jose has expedited the process for a range of housing forms. If you want to build an accessory dwelling unit in your backyard, the city has pre-approved vendors and will issue you a same-day permit.
San Jose has said it will also launch a streamlined approval process for infill housing. For larger stand-alone projects, the city has conducted a blanket environmental impact review that pre-approves over 14,000 new homes, so that each developer does not have to run its own study. Practically, that means large projects in San Jose can be permitted in as little as six months, whereas permitting often takes years in the surrounding cities.
In 2022, San Jose became the largest U.S. city to drop minimum parking space requirements for new housing developments, a priority for transit advocates nationally. In 2021, the city approved revised plans for Diridon Station — where Amtrak, BART, Caltrain, high-speed rail, and other forms of transit are slated to meet — a project that local leaders describe as the West Coast’s Grand Central.
More than 25 buildings are planned for downtown San Jose, anticipating future growth. All must be constructed under a “reach” energy code with strict efficiency requirements, to eliminate dependence on fossil fuels. Housing must be all-electric (yes, that means induction stoves), and the city offers a TotalGreen plan, where residents can opt to only pull clean electricity for a modest price premium.
Last month, Nabr, a housing company I helped start, received approval from San Jose to construct two sustainable apartment buildings in the heart of the city. Designed by the Danish architect Bjarke Ingels, these Scandinavian-inspired timber towers will be accompanied by a plaza with public programming and improvements to the adjacent bike lanes.
Much of the development is planned in and around SoFA (South of First Area), San Jose’s main retail corridor during its agrarian boom years. SoFA has preserved its Spanish-era streets, with tree-lined sidewalks, and a vintage streetcar. Known as “Silicon Valley’s Creative District,” SoFA is now home to the types of small businesses that were pushed out of San Francisco. In 2016, they formed the SoFA Partnership, which sponsors public art and South First Fridays, when galleries stay open at night.
There has been a lot of talk in the Bay Area that it’s time to build. Although there is still work to be done to translate policy into funded projects, San Jose is getting started. Perhaps it will one day outshine San Francisco, its smaller yet more illustrious cousin. You may leave your heart in San Francisco, but if you care about the future, you should know the way to San Jose.
Source: LA Times
Man, the Fed going dovish…..
Listening to Powell he expects disinflation in housing in the second quarter. He also expects disinflation in the service sector as well. He says we are seeing it in goods now, it’s all about core PCE to him so it’s pedal to the metal on rates until then.
Good luck with selling season rates could shoot up even more.
I’m wondering how many large financial players subscribe to Pegasus to get at publicly available information, before it is made public.
This is a no brainer, no? NYT reported it costs something like $1.1MM to get into ten devices.
Is this any different than the Bloomberg Terminal?
Lib – Are you insinuating the terminal folks are front running? That would be some scandal for sure.
If people are worried about Pegasus or any of the other spyware tools they should not be using an regular iPhone for sensitive business like that. Even so Apple locked down modes are really really secure. Apple is offering a reward of $2m to anyone who can find a way around their latest lockdown mode. I have yet to hear of anyone claiming the reward. Apple and others are suing the spyware folks as well.
If they want to eavesdrop you can bet they will find a way. Our own government is one of the best at it. They will go to great lengths to insure they can, same stuff that Huawei is accused of doing with their networking and broadband gear that got them banned from U.S. networks.
Not that eavesdropping is not possible other ways. Hidden cameras being one cheap and simple way to do it, tiny ones with cellular 4G or 5G connectivity. A laser microphone has been around for a long time too. Easy to point one at a house or office window a 1/4 mile away. Like in the movies best to turn up the stereo if you are going to be talking top secret or trade secret stuff at home….
It was sort of tongue in cheek. But for those who can afford it, you get to hear what’s happening in the world first, especially news that you can profit off of.
Speaking of spyware, did any of you catch how they caught the Bloomfield temple Molotov Cocktail bomber? Apparently, his plates were read by a license plate reader just a few blocks from the temple on his way back to Clifton. Now I’d like to think he jumped on the parkway and they read his plates at the toll entrance on Watchung Avenue, that’s a lot more than a few blocks away. Hmmm. Random plate readers on Broad Street (his most likely route home)?
Plate readers are everywhere and have been for over a decade. Shopping malls have them too. They cannot run the data but can and give it to police.
Heck the cops all have access to private Ring and other home camera systems too. They just fill out a quick form on Amazon’s Law Enforcement Request Tracker and they get access to the video, warrantless disclosure without consent from homeowner or business. It’s all in the Terms of Service..
Which is why I stopped worrying. Unless you live off the grid in the middle of nowhere, you are being tracked. The truth is, you have been tracked for retail purposes well as far back as the 70s.
MSFT is up on the ChatBot announcement.
They are adding a Chat and Compose feature for posting anywhere like this blog or Facebook etc in their browser Edge’s Sidebar. Free Apparently. Unlike ChatGPT this new Bing sidebar can also retrieve CURRENT news about recent events. So even the glib ones around here and on Facebook etc can all sound like they know WTF is really going on without having to even read the real news reports or pull data from obscure sources.
This should take us up a notch to a next level of what I have always called unreality. Even a sad sack of flesh and bones like me can write like a Political Scientist, or even a fermentation scientist/mixologist in a conversation and few will be wiser… Fun times ahead folks. Cannot wait for the election cycle to really kick off.
Here is the waitlist link for the Bing ChatGPT: upgrade.
https://bing.com/new
There are a few working examples now, you just cannot do a full chat without the upgrade. I gather Microsoft is busy firing up a huge virtual farm to serve what will be a massive amount of traffic. So far it works in Chrome as well.
Google must be at least a little nervous..
2 years ago, it was announce blockchain infrastructure to pump the stock price. Now it’s, announce AI infrastructure to pump.
So are we still at Wall St does not believe Powell?
News CNBC quotes ‘Powell said 2023 should be a year of “significant declines in inflation.”
Not what I heard..I heard buckle up as we are just getting started with disinflation.
He said disinflation has not happened in services sector, unless there are massive layoffs they are going to keep jacking rates. We are talking about 2/3rds of consumer spending.
“Powell made a distinction between the rising prices of goods such as furniture and appliances, where inflation has eased considerably, and the services sector. Within services, he noted there were two components the Fed was watching – housing services, mostly rents, and overall services outside of housing.
“We’re not seeing it (disinflation) yet in housing,” Powell said, “but we expect to see that this year.”
But, he added, the Fed has yet to see disinflation in the broader services sector.
“We’re just at the beginning of this process,” Powell said of the fight against inflation that reached levels not seen in four decades last summer when consumer prices rose at an annualized rate of 9.1%.
He traced the recent cycle of inflation to the origins of the coronavirus when people were unable to shop in person and instead began buying expensive goods online to now, where consumers are shifting their buying habits to services and “experiences” rather than goods.”
As far as the housing portion he also wants to see disinflation and not just jobs either, that happens it will hit hard contracts/sales are down what 35.4% YoY already…..Gonna have to lower your price folks if you want to sell…..
Powell will make sure Biden only serves one term.
BRT – Microsoft ended it’s Azure blockchain service in 2021. It was as many had predicted almost zero demand to reengineer systems for some kind of blockchain baloney business use case.
Not to say the tech companies aren’t pumping their stock with Chat Bot tech, but from what I know about it the war is only getting warmed up as all the deep pockets are now in the mix. It’s now a three horse race.. MSFT with ChatGTP, Google with Bard AI and now Baidu with Earnie the homicidal Muppet.
All should be out in the wild by march…. Can they actually monetize it is the question, will it be another dud like NFTs and or Metaverse and or commercial blockchain? No idea…
Spent the afternoon calling power companies that offer net metering/solar buy back plans for my area. Some of them pay 1/3 rd of a cent per kilowatt. Another one charges over 40 cents per kw you consume to get onto their solar plan. Who would sign up for that?
A few give credit at the spot wholesale rate. Will go with one of those if we get the solar shingles.
“Now it’s, announce AI infrastructure to pump.”
Hearing/seeing a lot of chirping about robotics as well.
The ChatAI/GTP/etc. stuff is definitely cool. But I asked it it three questions and it got each of them wrong. Let’s just say, it does not honor a minority position, even it it’s correct. I am not referring to anything political.
At the end of the day, unless the artificial in artificial intelligence improves dramatically, I don’t see this tech being useful except for answering the obvious questions. Where most situations require a human to interface with are the minority issues. When things don’t go as expected. So far, I haven’t seen AI help at all, nor chatAI.
I forgot who said it, but ChatGPT felt a lot more like MadLibs than anything that was game changing.
“Who would sign up for that?”
A lot of the same people who drive EVs.
Hold, NJ is a great deal compared to that. My roof is just past 20 years so not ideal for me now, but may in the future. Unless we get hit with a hail storm :)
We’ve got a fireproof roof (under the massive solar array) big concrete slabs.
Handy for those burny kind of days.
Juice: I believe Powell realizes that housing was simply out of control, and he wants to see significant inflation there; forget about the cost of eggs. Those with low rates, can simply stay where they are, the fact that some bought in crappy locations, and might want to move means nothing
Libturd
There are a few companies that are 100% solar, charge 12-13 cents a kw with a fixed term of 12-60 months, and if you join their solar buy back program give you a credit for your excess at the spot market rate that changes every 15 minutes. There are so many 100% green companies charging 18 cents a kw or more. Meanwhile one of the biggest energy companies in the world has a 60 month fixed plan. They charge 12.9 cents per kw used, and buy your excess at wholesale market rate . Bizarre how people don’t shop around. It’s not like you’re in grocery store A buying stuff and you pay 50 cents more for one item than grocery b charges since you’re already in the store and need it today.
Blockchain is inevitable as is AI. You guys can laugh at it all you want, but it’s inevitable. There is no digital world without either….and make no mistake about it, we are heading for a “digital age.”
BRT says:
February 7, 2023 at 4:09 pm
2 years ago, it was announce blockchain infrastructure to pump the stock price. Now it’s, announce AI infrastructure to pump.
Yes and 3D printing too..don’t forget VR headsets, dingus.
Zoom laying off 15%…I guess gas prices can fall back, houses can fall back, staffs can fall back, wages can fall back but Dow stocks falling back 15%? Hell no.
Ohh, a self-driving cars..supposed to be here already. Blumpy said so.
ChiFi, – CTO’s brains and looks behind ChatGPT hail from Vlora.
Inevitable. Think of the tesla car not as a typical vehicle, but a drive-able computer. It’s driving around collecting data. Some of the best software engineers are working on this software. Aka inevitable.
The world as we knew it….gone.
Bystander says:
February 7, 2023 at 6:37 pm
Ohh, a self-driving cars..supposed to be here already. Blumpy said so.
“There are a few companies that are 100% solar, charge 12-13 cents a kw with a fixed term of 12-60 months, and if you join their solar buy back program give you a credit for your excess at the spot market rate that changes every 15 minutes. There are so many 100% green companies charging 18 cents a kw or more.”
This ends well….not directed at you specifically HMB at all but we’ve all seen similar offerings in the past…who’s the mark? The financial firm securitizing all these cash flows, fuck no, that dude is beachside Spring Lake (not Hamptons, this shit isn’t that profitable)….the manufacturers grabbing green incentives, fuck no, big ole government money teet to suck there for pumping out South African child labor product…the contractors throwing this shit up, nope, full employment wage inflation happening there….
What’s that you say? Joe US Consumer buying/selling spot on the CBOE?
A four and a six? That’s a GRREEAAAT hand, go all in on that baby….
Oh, and I forgot one critical player in all of the above….the newly IPO’ed or private equity firm coordinating all this shit by slapping the latest hot investment label du jour on their business? Fuck no, they’re selling their worthless paper to CW to baghold and investing their personal proceeds in Ts….
What’s the senile old fool saying…I’m chatting up Ass from God and I think I just promised her some sold out concert tickets I have…
Hot chick in America who’s not a bitch?
Write your own ticket….
No music tonight 3b….
Ricky Nelson > Elvis Presley
Hahahaha…I have a favorite Presley tune….
So my dumb bitch ex-, who for sure is not the pleasant chick referenced above who can write her own ticket, has a lawyer dumber than she is and he copies me on an email to her that I really should not have seen at all…ever.
So I did a ‘reply all’….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PU5xxh5UX4U&ab_channel=ReighPhillipClaytonchannel
My ex’s incompetent lawyer right after is calling my lawyer threatening all kinds of shit and, I love my guy dearly he is the exact connected lawyer you want here and a fantastic and loyal friend, he responds on his letterhead basically ‘you want sanctions because you’re so fucking stupid you sent privileged information to my client?’
Which, of course, I de-escalate by sending a reply to all of the same Elvis video again to everyone…LOL, in hindsight the entertainment value of my divorce may someday approach the economic loss.
Joe gave a pretty damn good speech tonight.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be giving the SMOKEY side eye.
Juice: What’s the word?
https://www.sallyboys.com/?utm_campaign=gmb-listing&utm_medium=organic&utm_source=local