Jobs Day!

From the NYT:

The government will provide its latest snapshot of the labor market on Friday, and economists expect it to show that January was another month of solid job growth.

Forecasters surveyed by MarketWatch expect the Labor Department to show that U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month, a moderate slowdown from December.

But the hiring number probably won’t tell the whole story. Economists and policymakers will also be watching the unemployment rate, labor force participation and hourly earnings. An increase in the ranks of those available to work could alleviate the tightness in the labor market that is driving up wages and contributing to inflation.

“The question is, will we continue to see a Goldilocks labor market?” said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. “The Goldilocks labor market will be one where we continue to grow a little bit and wage pressure seems to subside a bit.”

Taken together, the numbers in the January report could help indicate the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and tame rapid inflation. So far, the Fed’s rate increases appear to be gently constraining the labor market with limited pain for workers. But as high interest rates filter through the economy more deeply, a big question is whether policymakers can achieve their goals without causing significant job losses.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

149 Responses to Jobs Day!

  1. dentssdunnigan says:


  2. dentssdunnigan says:


  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “$ARKK is up 42% in 2023. What’s remarkable but different is the rapid rises of the stocks ARKK holds is doing 100%+ of the work and people buying ARKK are NOT causing rises like before. The grassroots are causing the rise. That’s very healthy. At $7.6 Billion AUM, inflows=flat.

    One could easily make the argument, that a few years ago, all the inflows of new ARKK money were fueling the rise in companies nobody has heard about. Now that people know about them, the individual shareholders of the 27 companies are fueling the rise.…”

  4. Phoenix says:

    If you have an abscessed tooth I beg of you please go to the dentist. Please.

    A public service announcement.

  5. Phoenix says:

    702 Hp truck. What a beast.

    The 702-hp monster flew to 60 mph in just 3.7 seconds. That means that despite its 6800-pound heft, it can beat a Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 to the next streetlight.

    Wow, now imagine it being stolen, and a 5 year old girl hit by it, then having to take it back when the insurance company finds it.

    Ghosty truck.

    And keep warm today, use that gas, you can afford it.

  6. Chicago says:

    Jobs. WTF?

  7. 3b says:

    Well look at those job numbers!

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    517K! Brandon is a genius! Lol.

    Hey FED, cut that rate!! Cut that rate!! Lol.

  9. 1987 Condo says:

    +517K Wow

  10. 1987 Condo says:

    Going back to last thread, had a bud who got laid off by SalesForce yesterday. Good severance at least.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Leisure/Hospitality and Government jobs were the biggest gainers. We need more waiters, burger flippers and bartenders to appease the bloated, six-digit salaried Assistant Associate to the Jr. Associate Assistant Bookkeeper.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This labor market is insane. Thank god trump is not in office or he would be bragging away.

    Can the Fed stop this labor market….this is absolutely an insane bubble in the labor market.

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Market prob taking a bat to the head with this news.

  14. leftwing says:

    “The 702-hp monster flew to 60 mph in just 3.7 seconds. That means that despite its 6800-pound heft, it can beat a Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 to the next streetlight.”

    Oh yeah, this will end well….half the idiots in these trucks currently are new owners and have no idea how to handle them…full employment act for phoenix.

    Lib, brother, I am always seeking solid analysis and new facts that advance my knowledge.

  15. leftwing says:

    Stupid question I don’t have the time to research…

    I watched around the JOLTS economists scratch their heads and ask ‘where are all these cut workers we keep hearing about?’

    Then jobs this morning…

    My anecdotal experience is any techie cut has another job waiting for them they can walk into….are they being weirdly ‘double-counted’?

    In other words they’re not filing for UE insuranace as they are starting somewhere soon and have severance, yet does the 517k this morning pick them up as newly employed?

  16. Phoenix says:

    Bad look Cali. More surprised it wasn’t a BMW driver. Guess this actuary decided it was fine to depreciate the boomer and write him off as a loss.

    California ER doctor, 58, cycling on Pacific Coast Highway is mowed down by Lexus-driving accountant, 39, and then stabbed to death: Attacker ‘shouted white privilege slurs’

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    Jobs keep churning, wages starting to flatline a bit.

    Is this what JPo wants to see? Are stagnant wages the key to a FED pause?

  18. 3b says:

    I wonder what Powell is thinking this morning. You should have went the 50 on Wednesday.

  19. Chicago says:

    Left: severance keeps them from filing. I think they are staying on payroll not get the lump sum.

    Also I am betting labor force participation is rising. Lazy boomers running out of money and getting off the couch.

  20. 3b says:

    Does Powell do 50bp in March??

  21. Chicago says:

    Fast. Who says Powell wants to pause?

  22. Chicago says:

    The End Is Nigh (Phoenix Edition):
    A California driver mowed down a doctor taking an afternoon bike ride — before getting out of his Lexus and stabbing him to death, law enforcement officials said.

    Michael Mammone, 58, was riding in the bike lane on the Pacific Coast Highway in Dana Point around 3 p.m. Wednesday when a driver slammed into him from behind, the Orange County Sheriff’s Office said.

    The crash “launched” Mammone into the Crown Valley Parkway intersection, Sgt. Mike Woodruff told KCAL.

    Michael Mammone was an emergency room doctor at Providence Mission Hospital in Laguna Beach.

    Vanroy Evan Smith, 39, got out of his white Lexus brandishing a knife and began assaulting Mammone, an emergency room doctor at Providence Mission Hospital in Laguna Beach, police said.

    Witnesses said Smith was also holding a BB gun as he approached the injured Mammone before he began stabbing him.

    By the time law enforcement arrived, bystanders had leaped into action and detained Smith. He was booked on suspicion of murder.

    The knife he allegedly wielded was found at the scene.

    Intersection of Crown Valley Parkway and the Pacific Coast Highway.
    Vanroy Evan Smith allegedly hit Mammone with his car before stabbing him to death.

    Mammone, who was lying on the highway suffering from “severe injuries,” was taken to the hospital, where he died.

    Police said the men did not appear to know each other.

    “As of right now we currently don’t truly understand the why … as far as motivation and any type of relationship,” Woodruff told KTLA.

    “Investigators are keeping all options open to check those boxes, if you will, to make sure they don’t leave anything uncovered.”

  23. Juice Box says:

    SalesForce layoffs. Similar to the Google layoffs. You are erased, that is how you find out these days.

    “The 10% cut, which began a brutal January of tech layoff announcements, will eventually leave about 7,000 people out of work. Insider reported Thursday that 4,000 people vanished from Salesforce’s Slack channel over the past two days, a tally that may include contractors. A Salesforce spokesperson confirmed to SFGATE that Thursday’s layoffs were part of the round announced in January.”

  24. 3b says:

    Fast : Powell ain’t pausing after these numbers. Of course January numbers can be distorted due to seasonal factors, but not to this degree in my opinion. I believe the consensus was 187k, so a huge difference. I could see 50bp in March.

  25. Boomer Remover says:

    I want to stab the next person who uses the terms “fed pause” or “fed pivot”.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    Fast. Who says Powell wants to pause?

    Nobody said it. I was just wondering if stagnant salaries are the thing he’s looking at the most. I mean, okay… tons and tons of jobs is good but if salaries are stalled, inflation settles down. Right?

  27. Juice Box says:

    Powell did not say it. Wall St and the Media are. Several opinion pieces on Bloomberg and other channels.

  28. Bystander says:

    Regarding jobs, my LI applications have no activity and recruiter contact is 100% dead silence for nearly a month. I count two contacts, one was for very junior level. That is it, folks. The mix is not good. I would expect something if market was cranking, even lots of crummy contract jobs. Hiring is very wait and see. Internally, we have one Agile lead role which has been open since April 2022 and now finally offering someone in Poland. Lets see if they join. Another role for solution architect replacement, 6 months and nobody on management following up to get it into active recruiting state. Guy is ready to pull his hair out and doing 3 jobs now. Strange times. I know comp will be shit, maybe not even a raise. That is word here.


    You out there? How’s everything on your end?

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Every time I see the name “Tim Cook” I snort and chuckle. He’s not Steve Jobs, he’ll never be Jobs, he’s an MBA, not a mad scientist, he doesn’t create anything except churning out new versions of the same overpriced stuff as the muppets lap it up. I’ve said it repeatedly; place anyone on this blog in the Apple CEO chair and sit back and do nothing but ask three questions from your staff repeatedly and hold them accountable: 1) What’s the issue(s)? 2) Why? 3) What do we need to do to fix it?

  30. leftwing says:

    “Does Powell do 50bp in March??”

    Not a chance in the universe…the numbers would need to be a factor of 3x normally what would be required…doing so would be the ultimate admission of failure and suck any remaining credibility of the Fed out of the market…they think the market doesn’t listen to them now?

    Tell the bond market ‘hey guys we’ve skied down most of the slope and the lodge is in site but, sorry, we need to kick our skis off and walk back up the hill a bit…’

    There would be a literal mutiny….

  31. Very Stable Genius says:


    Payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low

  32. leftwing says:

    “…severance keeps them from filing. I think they are staying on payroll not get the lump sum.”

    Even better chi…so my hypothetical, I don’t know the answer…MSFT cuts 10k. Let’s say half are engineers. Let’s say half those (2,500 total) have been re-hired by someone else.

    Those 2,500 did not show up in UE. Presumably from what I recall from Ithaca they can show up in the employment survey?

    Is there some weird double counting going on? A guy still sitting at an MSFT desk that is ‘fired’ and moves immediately to Software Co to work is not a net new pickup in employment, no? But may be counted that way?

    Again, what prompted this was good economists I follow ‘not being able to find all these people cut’ and then the blowout jobs numbers this morning…

  33. Juice Box says:

    Eddie – Tim brought the just-in-time (JIT) inventory model that most of the rest of the world ended up copying. They have virtually no inventory surplus, it goes from from factories to your pocket in as little as week. None of what they have achieved with the massive adoption of the iPhone over the last 15 years would have been possible without Tim’s China based JIT supply chain. We need 10 million new phones by Christmas? Wake up the workers in the dorms and fire up the production lines..

  34. leftwing says:

    Anyone follow on that SPY short trade I did yesterday afternoon?

    If so, I’ll post updates. If not, won’t waste the space here.

    Short single summary…she’s in the money, went close to 50% gain at open. Since open market has run straight up to an intraday support level (413.67) where it has tendencies to hang for a bit and then break (one way or the other). I will likely close these today, at least half, as I don’t want to carry them through the weekend for a couple reasons. I will certainly exit half anytime today if I can hit 50%…my basis is 2.28 so if the spread is at 3.42 I’ll be out of half in the morning and all if it’s after 1-2pm…

  35. Ex says:

    Road rage incidents in California are up by some thing like 25% yty

    These people drive like idiots. I mounted a howitzer to my car in an attempt
    to gain an upper hand.

  36. Bystander says:


    Sorry but hiring does not happen that quickly at any major company. I lived and breathed this sh%t for 4 years. You don’t get let go a month ago and onboard to new job in a few weeks. Interview schedules, hiring checks, background checks, HR approvals, IT set-up..nope. 1.5 months would be quick and that would be 1 round, no negotiation and candidate completes all on-boarding tasks within a few days.

  37. Hold my beer says:

    If you own a stock and CW buys it, do you sell or hold?

  38. trick says:

    Somebody fbarred those numbers, Leisure went from 67k in December to 128k in January. Government 3k to 74k. Don’t buy it.

  39. Libturd says:

    Maybe it’s all of those immigrants?

  40. Hold my beer says:


    Did you ever buy Medifast?

  41. Ex says:

    The tragic end of Dr. Mark Sawusch’s life all started in an ice cream shop in Venice Beach.

    On June 23, 2017, Sawusch — a brilliant, but troubled ophthalmologist who struggled with bipolar disorder — met Anton David and Anna Moore. It was a fateful encounter that would eventually lead to his death and the plundering of his vast fortune.

    David, whose real name is Anthony Flores, was a guru-esque figure with long, flowing hair and a beard, who worked as a hair stylist on film shoots. Moore, a pixie-like blond, was an actress and singer. Both also ran a yoga center in Fresno, Calif., and their spiritual vibe cast a spell on Sawusch, who had just days earlier been released from a mental health facility, where he had been committed after suffering a breakdown.

    By the end of the day, the three had hopped into Sawusch’s Tesla for an impromptu road trip to Northern California. At the end of the week, David and Moore had moved into Sawusch’s multi-million dollar beachfront home in Malibu, Calif., federal prosecutors said.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Tim brought the just-in-time (JIT) inventory model that most of the rest of the world ended up copying.

    Tim copied it, too. MBA 101. Henry Ford invented it, everyone else decided lean manufacturing works. Tim Cook isn’t Jobs, nor is he Musk or even Gates.

  43. Libturd says:

    I didn’t in my personal account, but one of my investment clubs did. A whole whopping 10 shares. We like to scale in to positions. It’s closer to buy and hold.

    Medifast Inc (MED) 10.0000 1,163.10 4.0% 11/16/2022 7.0% Annualized Internal rate of Return

  44. Hold my beer says:


    I saw its dropped a lot. I was thinking of adding 10 shares also. LOL. Get that 7% dividend.

  45. Libturd says:

    It’s still a pretty solid value. Though not completely recession proof.

  46. Andrew H West says:

    The newspaper article about Sawusch’s death was missing something:
    “Dr. Mark Raymond Sawusch passed away peacefully at the age of 57 at his home in Malibu. Mark spent his final day doing what he loved doing most: watching wildlife from his seaside balcony and listening to the waves of the Pacific Ocean.”
    “Mark spent his final day doing what he loved doing most: lots of drugs”
    (That sounds like a Norm MacDonald line, wish he was still with us)
    Why can’t that couple get away with what The Church of Scientology does all the time? Namely, strip assets from weak-minded folk in California.

  47. Libturd says:

    Primis Checking and Savings.

    Just put 150K in. As my multi money promos are all nearing completion. No hoops, account opened in 5 minutes. Of course, they could change their rates at any time.

    Dear Libturd,

    Welcome to the Primis Bank family! The following account has been successfully set up with us:

    Product Type: Primis Premium Checking

    Interest Rate: 4.92000%

    Fixed/Variable: Fixed

    APY: 5.03%

    Rates are accurate as of 02/03/23.

  48. joyce says:

    Do you still have to wait a few days to link an external account and have the funds transferred or is that process more streamlined?

  49. Ex says:

    11:00 Toyota invented it. FYI

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This market is insane. Going green.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pure casino these days. Traders own the market.

  52. Phoenix says:

    Covid showed the weaknesses of JIT. Chip Chip.

    There are so many items we cannot get where I work. It creates plenty of problems.

    Oh well.

  53. NJCoast says:

    “Lazy boomers running out of money and getting off the couch.”
    This lazy boomer is watching a 5 year old, twenty-two month old and a newborn so their parents can work to get enough money to buy an overpriced shitbox. Even with us helping with the down payment homes are not affordable. My mom was a grandmother at the age my kids are having babies now. Try taking care of babies at 64.
    The millennials are getting their wish of putting us in an early grave.

  54. Libturd says:


    Those days are long over. Google Plaid. I opened the account at 11pm last night and the money was there immediately. Of course, there is a hold on the deposit, but that’s a bank policy.

    My only issue is that Intuit Mint (where I consolidate all of my accounts) does not support them.

  55. Ex says:

    Child care is a huuuuge expense. Immma start a little after school art school once I retire. Shit man.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The earliest new teachers can retire is 65. God bless them. Underpaid and f’ed beyond belief.

    NJCoast says:
    February 3, 2023 at 11:40 am
    “Lazy boomers running out of money and getting off the couch.”
    This lazy boomer is watching a 5 year old, twenty-two month old and a newborn so their parents can work to get enough money to buy an overpriced shitbox. Even with us helping with the down payment homes are not affordable. My mom was a grandmother at the age my kids are having babies now. Try taking care of babies at 64.
    The millennials are getting their wish of putting us in an early grave.

  57. Boomer Remover says:

    As I may have mentioned, my wife seriously explored taking over a child care center some time ago. This was just before wage inflation took off. With labor cost as the largest input of any center, we would have watched our people walk away to SBUX or whatever else is now paying 30-50% more per hour.

    Wife went with WFH for now, but we are still open to gaining exposure to a non owner managed small business. Cash flows are all over the place with service inflation and labor costs in flux.

  58. NJCoast says:

    I’m either taking care of my grandchildren or feeding grandfathers who think they’re still rock n roll gods.

  59. Hold my beer says:

    Boomer remover

    Have you looked at boba tea shops? They’re even appearing in non Asian plazas in my area now.

  60. Fast Eddie says:

    Can someone explain why the back of the kitchen stove is exposed? Is this a new architectural feature?

  61. Libturd says:

    Worst kitchen design ever. There are so many problems with it, I won’t even begin to list them. The entire inside of that home is painted industrial cold grey too. Just terrible.

  62. Bystander says:


    The real impact of this job market on is the child care, social workers, education, special needs and charity organizations who rely on low paid workers. My son went without private ABA for 4 months as they could not keep BTs on staff. Two quit within a couple days of joining the company. We just got a new therapist this week. We will see if she stays for long. Our special needs case worker at school quit two months in and they finally got a new person last week. This stuff is not discussed in general and no one gives a sh&t about impact. Society will pay in long run. I can only imagine what is happening in blue-collar and poor. Kids not getting care or special needs help. The elderly not having anyone to watch out for them. Who gives a flying f% about poor McDonalds shareholders.

  63. Ex says:

    11:55 sweet mother of monkeys

  64. BRT says:

    I’m out on my play. Was expecting fireworks on big 3 falling short yesterday. In a sane world, that was a homerun. Probably go back to watching from the sidelines for now. Too occupied with work/kids.

  65. Libturd says:


    Strong animal spirits. Markets been in a down trend now for nearly 14 months. If you can ride a short for 6 months, it’s a pretty safe bet. Then again, anything can happen in such a long time frame.

  66. Mike S says:

    FYI – for those of you on ibonds – the next reset will bring a much lower rate because it compares YoY inflation…. it will not be a pretty rate vs even a 1 year… or savings account

  67. Boomer Remover says:

    HMB – The only Boba shops I see are the ones that pop up around Edgewater/Fort Lee, and promptly close. Perhaps oversaturated so unfair comp. I understand vertical integration and multiple locations helps in the food business.

    Mike S – What happens to those who gifted i-bonds but can’t take delivery until next year?

    Lib – I’m thinking about moving over from SoFi/Marcus. Is your feeling that this HYSA is not a bait and will not go down to 3.5% in a month?

  68. Libturd says:


    I have no friggin’ clue. The truth is, it’s not a big deal to move money around these days. I have 900K floating around ten or so different checking accounts right now. If it’s a teaser rate, I can move it to any of my other nine banks offering more. Like I said, it took 5 minutes for me to setup. Didn’t even have to scan and upload my DL. They are a small brick & mortar out of Maryland. Certainly not service oriented.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    Yeah, but he can suck the chrome off a trailer hitch and lay back with a beer.

    Fast Eddie says:
    February 3, 2023 at 11:00 am
    Tim Cook isn’t Jobs, nor is he Musk or even Gates.

  70. Libturd says:

    You can do anything with i-bonds at their shitty web portal. I thought you can convert to paper bonds if desired.

  71. leftwing says:

    Took half my SPY spreads from yesterday off…35% return…not thrilled but gives me more confidence riding the rest into close as I decided I wouldn’t take them through the weekend. Will close the remaining half at breakeven for that tranche.

    412.50 can be a pivot area, on the downside if she rides through that next stop is 410.56.

    All bets off in the final hour; people will positioning going into the weekend so little clarity on direction or intensity.

  72. Fabius Maximus says:

    “grandfathers who think they’re still rock n roll gods.”

    Two of my Bruce tickets just sold, so I am $500 ahead with two tickets left to sell. Let that Granddaddy rock on!

  73. Boomer Remover says:

    Bystander, sorry I left you out, not much to add and you are spot on.

    Similar to the brain drain we had to finance in the early 2000’s with the explosion of quants, on a lower income scale. People capable of doing and being more being alomst pushed to chase money.

  74. chicagofinance says:

    “The results don’t matter.”

    left was right

  75. Fast Eddie says:

    Yeah, but he can suck the chrome off a trailer hitch and lay back with a beer.

    Indeed. The man is a bit Féminité. He’s laying back with 50 million per year in his pocket simply by watching cult members buy more iShit.

  76. leftwing says:

    “Can someone explain why the back of the kitchen stove is exposed? Is this a new architectural feature?”

    OMFUG, some inept first time flipper…can’t imagine the level of utilities or codes incompetence that caused him to resort to that…funnier still if someone buys it like that…what a pleasant breakfast bar to enjoy a coffee early on a sunny Saturday lol.

  77. chicagofinance says:

    I think we are seeing a tug of war. The assumption was that the Fed would stop, then eventually cut, giving credence to the shape of the yield curve. Now, I think equities are ignoring rates (for today, we’ll see), so you need to build in the strength of cosumers who will continues to have paychecks. It is difficult to draw some kind of real trend from just several days of trading, but in this case “good news” is good news. The bulls will hope for greater probability of a soft landing. That said, the terminal rate must be 5/5.25 of this one, instead of a possible 4.75/5. WTF do I know?

  78. chicagofinance says:

    off this one

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Check the 2Y though….. I was bitching it would go sub 4…. it hit a pothole…

  80. Libturd says:

    Oils down to 73.

  81. leftwing says:

    Hopped into the INTC short earlier this morning I was discussing the other day for first leg…broke an overbought measure it seems to respect and someone needs to explain to me why this dinosaur breaks and holds the 30.50 level that has been resistance since September…recent exuberance over a (poorly) executed round of cost cutting only gets you so many momentum players and we are on day seven with deceleration…perfect world I would wait for one or two more daily volume bars trending down but I want some short into the weekend and haven’t had time to research anything else.

    Also did a low effort, high return (4x) GOOG spread for next Friday. Gap to fill down to 101 and post earnings with no catalysts doubtful we’re going to randomly punch through yesterdays high of 108+ overnight so downside should be boxed.

  82. Mike S says:

    The IBONDs you did as gifts still collect on current rates, the new rates will be shit and collect low rates until you can take them in future…

  83. leftwing says:

    Out of my SPYs from yesterday. Almost 40% overnight, not happy about it though, broke cadence.

    If this is ultimately a loser then there will be two winners to compensate. If this is a winner I pulled out early and longer term hurt myself as there WILL be a loser upcoming that won’t be fully compensated.

    Was going to do it anyway but especially now because of the other two shorts threw on today…

    It’s a gain, but a bad gain.

    Like hitting with a 13 when the dealer is showing a six and pulling an eight…the blackjack table will cheer your ‘win’ but the player that’s been around for a while know it’ll hurt you long term.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard, on a more outlook- and data-dependent Fed:

    “After any pause, it is equally as likely the Fed is raising rates again rather than cutting because the labor market bends but doesn’t break.”

  85. Libturd says:

    I am surprised market didn’t move down much today. That job report screamed, “shit still ain’t working!”

  86. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    February 3, 2023 at 2:06 pm
    Now, I think equities are ignoring rates (for today, we’ll see), so you need to build in the strength of cosumers who will continues to have paychecks. It is difficult to draw some kind of real trend from just several days of trading, but in this case “good news” is good news. The bulls will hope for greater probability of a soft landing.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All That Recession Talk Is Looking More and More Like CEO Fear-Mongering

  88. Bystander says:


    Wall Street went skiing for the weekend after Oz Powell did his lapdog work yesterday. They will continue to bend him to their will like Gumby. The avg Amercian will continue to get crushed in game of chicken.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, my call for roaring 20s 2.0 last decade, looks pretty damn good right now. Economy is ridiculously strong. Took high rates and inflation, and pissed on it.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know what sucks…that I lost confidence in my plan with ark. Should have listened to my gut and ignored the noise….and just kept DCA every month. F’ing winning investment over the long run, but no, i had to lose my conviction. Everyone was piling on cathie wood…everyone. And guess what…everyone is always wrong. So stupid for abandoning my strategy. Oh well..

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    But I always look at the bright side…ark forced me into a high conviction stock in dna. Going to change my life in 10 years.

  92. Hold my beer says:


    That kitchen is a disaster. The stove should be where the dishwasher is. Or better yet make that room the dining room and turn the dining area into a kitchen.

  93. Fabius Maximus says:

    I called this day one. That drive was too compromised to be considered credible.
    Ron Filipkowski@RonFilipkowski
    Hunter Biden laptop repairman is asked about reports that many files were added to it after the fact to try and incriminate the Bidens. He said “there have been several attempts to insert fake data,” and it has passed through “countless numbers of hands” over the past 2 years.

  94. leftwing says:

    Oh, and since it’s popping on the news again right now, WTF about this Chinese spy balloon?

    We cancelled our diplomatic with them as their spy aircraft flies over our sovereign territories taking pictures of our military installations.

    Well that’s showing them!

    Please tell me what other country on Earth would not have shot down this thing yet?

    Democrats and liberals are such pussies.

  95. leftwing says:

    *diplomatic meeting* with them

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This list is the equivalent of ark type stocks for real estate. When it comes to real estate, you have to be f’ing nuts to buy in high risk locations. Sure, it runs up fast, but you don’t want to be stuck holding a high risk illiquid asset. Hell no.

    “Inventory on the Housing Market is exploding. 📈

    Nashville, Austin, and Phoenix have 3x more homes on the market today compared to one year ago.

    Expect home prices to continue crashing in the metros on this list throughout 2023.”

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, better off renting in vegas. Have to be nuts to buy there in retirement.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So, to give you a sense of that, I think Tesla hit $180 today,” she continued. “We have put out on our website our Tesla model and you can manipulate it if you’d like to see how we get to these numbers. But that $180, we believe, will in five years — now this is our research, and we could be wrong …  for compliance reasons I have to say that — but, our conviction is very high that that $180, if you do hold, don’t trade it, will scale to $1500 in our base case. so almost tenfold, in five years. Why? Because electric vehicles have entered the sweet spot of their S curve and Tesla is leading the charge, so to speak.”

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In all honesty, they have absolutely owned tesla analysis. Why doubt it now?

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Used car prices are continuing their fast and unexpected rise 👇

    Sales conversion at the worlds LARGEST dealer auction has skyrocketed:

    3 wks ago: 66%
    2 wks ago: 69.4%
    Last wk: 69.6% (13-mth high!)

    Basically: Dealers are paying UP to acquire inventory, even MORE than last year

  101. Fast Eddie says:

    Mount Washington, New Hampshire, current air temperature: minus 41 degrees. They set a record low temperature last night. I drove up to the top in the month of July, years ago. My spouse was freaking out. The temperature at the summit in mid July was 30 degrees with a wind chill of 0 degrees.

  102. Chicago says:

    Left: QPac suffocated the Crimson in Allston. The Red are falling upward in the ECAC. They are tied for 2nd with two games in hand.

    IDK. Something feels constructive this season. Also, February’s slate looks stronger on paper than several weeks ago.

    The Red’s 2022-2023 wasn’t a Big Ten, but they played a bunch of respectable teams.

  103. crushednjmillenial says:

    Crazy fact: three presidents (Clinton, GWB and DJT) were all born in the summer of 1946

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    Crazy fact: three presidents (Clinton, GWB and DJT) were all born in the summer of 1946

    That’s because everybody was fucking like crazy when WWII ended and the troops came home. Without checking, my intuition tells me there was a surge in births mid to late 1946.

  105. Phoenix says:

    What is this balloon made of? Alien skin?

    William Kim, a specialist in surveillance balloons at the Marathon Initiative think tank in Washington, told AFP that the target was resistant to missiles and bullets.

    If this is who is running think tanks in Washington, maybe we should switch to dotard tanks instead.

  106. Boomer Remover says:

    Pumps: 90% of what you post here is cut paste pasta from Twitter, sans attribution. The reference to the whole roaring twenties is just something you first read in school, and then again on twitter.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I didn’t see the call for roaring 20’s 2.0 anywhere last decade. I came up with that term.

    Sure I read twitter and share on here, but I have my own thoughts. Don’t get it twisted. You don’t call the real estate markets next boom 8 years out from anything but your own analysis. No one was saying that but me.

    Twitter and this blog have bashed cathie to no end on the way down. I have consistently understood and defended her investment thesis. So enough with this weak argument that i have zero original thoughts or analysis.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s obvious, fundamentals don’t matter like they used to. So it’s hilarious to bash ark investment approach from a fundamental position. Chit companies blah blah. It’s about understanding where the growth is and is going. What is disrupting the old guard. It’s as simple as that.

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Tesla and bitcoin were the embodiment of this disruptive change last decade. Then her critics have the nerve to say she was carried by them?!! Mind blown..

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No chit!! It was her highest convictions last decade in disruptive change. She nailed it. No chit it carried her!! She knocked it out of the park and nailed the biggest disrupters of last decade. That’s almost impossible to do unless you are good at what you do.

  111. Chicago says:

    Guess who is disruptive on these threads?

  112. Hold my beer says:

    I remember fundamentals don’t matter when companies were being valued based on eyeballs and clicks in the late 90s. Didn’t end well for those investors.

  113. leftwing says:

    chi, saw that Qpac/Harvard final. Falling up is a good term, for me as usual it’s all about the pairwise…

    Michigan beat Wisconsin (ranked 37th) and only picked up 11 points. Penn St beat Ohio (8th) and picked up 53 points. We beat RPI (ranked 51st) last night and picked up 32 points. Our highest ranked remaining opponent is Colgate (32nd) and it falls off from there.

    Michigan Tech scares me, Minnesota St too close for comfort. Haven’t looked at their remaining strength of schedule.

    The standings gap down after that slightly, but it’s two Big Ten teams spot on tied in 14 and 15 who, funny enough, are playing back to back games this weekend against eachother….tough to figure out who we want there….thinking ND even though that would propel them up but they have four really tough games remaining after tonight. Mich State on the other hand has Wisco twice which they should walk over and two against Michigan which they should lose but they always play tough…Mich St could go 3-1 over the next two weekends to end the season. That would suck for us.

    Anyway, who knows. Conference championship games are factored into pairwise so just looking at the remaining handful of regular season games doesn’t give the full picture. Should be a fun NCAA tourney though, good stories in the top 3 teams and then four BigTen teams in there (in the top eight right now, sheesh). Plus us and Harvard as ECAC cinderellas. Looking forward to it. Only regret is that for the first time in a while I won’t be at Placid.

    Red makes it to the Frozen Four I will book a trip and we’ll meet up in Tampa!

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Depends on what investors. Majority get slaughtered while the minority eat. You need to sell. All these people were up huge, but they don’t understand how the market works. You have to beat the herd to selling. When it’s over valued by a lot, and all the headlines are talking about people making money…f’ing sell. Don’t be stupid.

    Hold my beer says:
    February 4, 2023 at 12:51 pm
    I remember fundamentals don’t matter when companies were being valued based on eyeballs and clicks in the late 90s. Didn’t end well for those investors.

  115. PumpkinFace says:

    You have to buy first, in order to sell later. How much did you buy? Nothing, got it.

  116. leftwing says:

    “I remember fundamentals don’t matter when companies were being valued based on eyeballs and clicks in the late 90s. Didn’t end well for those investors.”

    LOL, she’s a joke. She’s returned 9.1% annualized – less than the S&P – with incredibly more risk…unlike the S&P she set tens of billions of her investor dollars on fire with the 2020-21 pump of her shitco assets.

    Someone posted that the increase in AUM during the recent pop in her fund share price was all due to performance, not new assets. No shit, even with all the momentum recently no one is touching her, and only the dumbest of the dumb remain with her.

  117. Fabius Maximus says:

    Just finished my FAFSA applitcaion for my kid. Got an instant response.

  118. 3b says:

    The balloon has been shot down over the Atlantic.

  119. BRT says:

    Yeah, everyone was wrong, other than the people who shorted her stack of crap from 140 to 30. But it’s in it’s 40s now!!!!! LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  120. Phoenix says:

    The balloon has been shot down over the Atlantic.

    Guess it wasn’t bulletproof after all.

    Think Tank Schmink tank.

  121. leftwing says:

    “The balloon has been shot down over the Atlantic.”

    Whew. What a relief. All our secrets in the North Atlantic are safe. Very lucky we didn’t let it traverse the Caribbean Sea, really sensitive stuff there.

    Biden is a joke…governance by popular acclaim…the only reason he did this action is the criticism got so loud he was forced to act and by that time the balloon actually was over population centers so he had to wait for it to go sea…this guy just exudes weakness like the feeble old man he is.

    I’m not going all Schiff/Russia-like here and have no intention of debating this topic as I will admit up front I have no data or ‘proof’….but, honestly, I really have to ask myself what it is with this guy and his continual deference to the Chinese?

  122. Juice Box says:

    Right off myrtle beach there are loads of videos on Twitter.

    Doppler radar picked it up too, should be easy for the navy to retrieve, charts show water there is very shallow maybe 60 ft depth max.

  123. leftwing says:

    “Just finished my FAFSA applitcaion for my kid. Got an instant response.”

    Your Liberal Overlords thank you for contributing almost one-half of your waking hours over your lifetime to their pet causes, none of which include you. Did you expect a different outcome?

    Now go pull the lever for the senile old fool and the cackler, shut up, and get back to work for them. Topping up your 39% is due in weeks, and you better have it ready.

  124. 3b says:

    Left: Any other country would have shot it down. Biden looks weak and indecisive again. The Atlantic Magazine has an article saying the Chinese spy ballon was much ado about nothing. Typical. Of course if it was a Russian spy balloon it would be a different story, and I mean prior to their invasion of Ukraine.

  125. Juice Box says:

    3B maybe not. Most other countries do not have the capability. The F22 the fighter jet was used today for a reason, it is one of very few military jets that can fly as high as 65,000 feet. It fired it”s missile very close to the balloon and in a straight line as the missile itself is not very maneuverable at that height most missile fins are too small to make large corrections as the air simple is too thin, so they used a laser guided AIM-9X missile that was guided by the jet. Not everyone can do that, it was not a heat seeking missile.

    There is on Twitter a video taken from the beach showing a second jet approaching the falling metal gantry, it fired a second shot a double tap as apparent the first missile only exploded the balloon and not that metal gantry rig with the solar panels. We will have to wait until they tell us, perhaps never as it may remain classified even if it had no cameras or other spy equipment on it.

  126. Hold my beer says:

    Ah FAFSA.

    It’ nice making too much money to get grants, but not enough to pay for the kids college unless you drive a beater and cut your own lawn. But we are eligible for 2k a year in interest free loans. I am so privileged.

  127. SmallGovConservative says:

    Phoenix says:
    February 4, 2023 at 3:50 pm
    “The balloon has been shot down over the Atlantic.”

    A competent president with competent military leadership would’ve shot it down over the Pacific, before it entered the US. In any case, there’s obviously no valid reason to have let it traverse the entire country — a simple case of Dem malfeasance.

  128. SmallGovConservative says:

    Regarding yesterday’s jobs report, the primary take-away is the BLS having become the latest of this country’s once mostly-reliable institutions to have tarnished (if not trashed) it’s reputation. As with the NIH, CDC, FBI and others, it’s clear that the BLS is no longer a completely trustworthy and dependable source of information. Whether for political reasons, or simply the result of a degraded level of competence, the numbers reported by the BLS yesterday do not make sense. The fact that Bloomberg would include ‘too good to be true’ in the title of their main jobs report article indicates that there are huge numbers of people in the financial community that simply don’t believe the numbers. My guess is the BLS knew they had problems and inconsistencies with the numbers that they reported throughout last year, and took the opportunity of the regular Jan seasonal adjustment to pile on several other adjustments to try to square things up.

  129. Juice Box says:

    Politics aside. There was only perhaps one chance to do that over Alaska if that is the track it took. Again very few fighter jets in the world can fly to 60,00o ft and fire an air to air missile that can actually intercept something flying that high. The F-22 is one of those jets. We don’t have that many either, but they were at the airbase Elmendorf-Richardson outside Anchorage.

    Reporters have asked why not earlier? They said it was not a military or physical threat to people on the ground. It is not a weapons platform. Why did they actually wait? Politics of course. Bilken’s trip to China and I believe our Secretary of Defense is over there now visiting multiple Asian countries.

    As I said earlier they may even declare it a weather balloon even if it is not. We shall see..

  130. Juice Box says:

    Fab – circling back. “drive was too compromised”

    You mean the many copies that were made right? I have no doubt that was done to distort and peddle misinformation. However the DOJ has the original, FBI siezed it in December 2019 under the authority of a subpoena issued by a Wilmington Federal grand jury. The DOJ has folks who can tell even if one sector was toyed with. So far nothing in years and years of waiting after all it’s 2023 now. As I have been saying U.S. Attorney David C. Weiss is milking this. Either exonerate or indight already. If it goes the wrong way his Daddy will pardon anyway. Last thing I want to see in the news is Hunter’s name, along with Harry the prince…That is all so 2020.

  131. Phoenix says:


    You would have thought it would have been perfect for one of those “Star Wars” lasers they brag about.

    Guess we don’t really have one that works. Good test, China. Navy going to spend 1B to retrieve it, find out it’s some old satellite tv antennas and a leaking Whirlpool dishwasher.

    Chinese are home laughing with the biggest belly laugh they can come up with.

  132. Phoenix says:

    I mean, if you didn’t want it seen, why not dye the material something other than white which was probably the choice to make it so visible, to scare any Montana beer drinkers?

    And while everyone was watching the balloon, 50 thousand South Americans crossed the border.

  133. leftwing says:

    “Politics aside. There was only perhaps one chance to do that over Alaska if that is the track it took.”

    Uh, no on that one…it came into continental US over Idaho and Montana…you ever been there? Even if, google earth it. With the description given it was painfully obvious the thing could have been taken down over a large swath of that area with no threat to humans as it is unpopulated…watching the ‘hit’ even reinforces it…very little debris to form a large field…

    And the senile old fool is holding to his story even after they shot it down, ie they did so to ‘preserve American lives and keep them out of harm’s way’.

    There was even some official US Twitter account, forget which may been POTUS, that said they will always ‘put US lives first’.

    What lives, US cattle lives? Gimme a break….

    He didn’t want to disclose, got caught when it was seen in the air by civilians, I agree with you they were trying to bury it to keep the Blinken meeting on, and when caught came up with a worse excuse than a nine year old with his hand in a mom’s purse.

    So incompetent can’t even lie well….

  134. 3b says:

    Juice: Fair point. China would have shot it down if it was one of ours.

  135. leftwing says:

    LOL chi you watching this?

    6-0 12:30 into the FIRST.

  136. Fast Eddie says:

    A competent president with competent military leadership would’ve shot it down over the Pacific, before it entered the US.

    The O’Biden autocracy wanted to make sure China got enough pictures before they shot it down.

  137. Bystander says:

    “New York City’s golden goose isn’t just losing its feathers, it’s coughing up blood, and the whole structure of government will need to adjust.

    Per the city Finance Department, the total value of Gotham’s commercial real estate — offices, stores and hotels — is nearly $9 billion short of its most recent high. And it’s likely headed down more, as companies downsize their office footprints and stores across the city close.

    One of the city’s real-estate giants, Vornado, just got demoted from the S&P 500.

    As Finance Commissioner Preston Niblack notes, “The decline in office occupancy continues to impact retail stores and hotels in the city contributing to the sector’s slow recovery.”

    It’s not just a drop in the property-tax take: The Finance Department projects revenue from taxes on commercial transactions to fall nearly 43% this fiscal year — about $465 million. The take from residential transfer taxes will drop 27.3% — down hundreds of millions more.

    Real-estate taxes are the biggest contributor to New York City’s coffers, covering a third its $106.4 billion budget. Expected future property taxes are also the main backing for Gotham’s $40 billion or so in general-obligation bonds.

    The loss of office workers that’s driving this also bodes grim for the city’s retail, hospitality and construction sectors, all of which got slammed during the pandemic. That hurts the city (and state) income and sales-tax take, as well.”

    Would hate to rely on that revenue stream as my majority income..might force you to take some crazy risks.

  138. BRT says:

    They let it fly over because they ultimately are trying to prep the public for war with China. The US runs PR campaigns to start all their wars. They spent 4 years years hyping up fake Russia crap to gear us up for what we are in right now. Russia’s proxy war is just a warm up. Everything is going to be about China. The worst part is…there’s very little anti-war politicians in Washington right now…

  139. Fast Eddie says:

    “New York City’s golden goose isn’t just losing its feathers, it’s coughing up blood, and the whole structure of government will need to adjust.

    Maybe they’ll raze whole city blocks or swaths of buildings like Detroit to consolidate city services. I wonder if I’ll be alive long enough to see Snake Plissken blowing up shit in the New York City Fed Prison.

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In all honesty, at this point, vornado trading at an absolute value for all those “value investors.” Tempted to sell my rental property and buy this at the low. So sick. Transfer clifton real estate to some of the best real estate on the planet.

  141. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t see much chance for lower(min risk). Pays a dividend. Has chance for massive upside based on risk(nonexistent) if/when Fed starts lowering rates.

    Might seriously decide on selling multi and buy this up. Tough decision as i see clifton real estate appreciating nicely lomg-term.

  142. Juice Box says:

    Left reports are/were Over Alaska first and then Canada. I have not heard of any sightings over Washington ot Idaho. First sighted in Montana and reported by a local paper. They should have known as soon as it hit our Alaska territory it’s big enough to have a radar signal.

    Here are maps of the reported path.

    Anyway as we know they new about it as early as Jan 31st, and because of politics did nothing. We may never know if it is a weather balloon or spy balloon. We shall she what comes from Washington by tomorrow as they have recovered debris. There are photos of the Navy ships taken from Myrtle Beach shore it”s close and the water is shallow enough for sure.

  143. Phoenix says:


    I believe you are right.

  144. leftwing says:

    Juice, got a glimpse at the pathway you posted before the Daily Mail threw me into an endless series of ads.

    Regardless, I’ve seen the pathway on TV and both the DM and the NYT (link below) agree the balloon entered over Idaho and proceeded to Billings.

    I know the area. It is (beautifully) desolate. Two National forests. The balloon had to fly over at least one. Very possibly it traversed both.

    DoD knew the trajectory from Alaska through Canada. There is ZERO excuse for not taking this down when it hit US airspace.


    NTY timeline:

Comments are closed.