Dippitty dip dip

From Fortune:

From US News and World Report:

Home Prices Continue to Come Down as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

Home prices continued their downward slide in November, though they remain up year over year, according to the CoreLogic Case-Shiller monthly index released on Tuesday.

Nationally, prices fell 0.6% in November, but are up 7.7% annually, following October’s 9.2% increase.

Miami, Tampa and Atlanta led the cities posting the largest increases, at 18.4%, 16.9% and 12.4%, respectively.

“November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. “Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”

The data reflect prices before mortgage rates topped 7% and various markets continue to see declines in the rate of appreciation.

“The latest S&P Case-Shiller report provides evidence of the slowing housing market during the fall, with home prices continuing to decelerate in October,” Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist, said before the release. “However, the data released today do not account for the full impact of rising mortgage rates, which were above 7% in November.

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111 Responses to Dippitty dip dip

  1. dentssdunnigan says:

    First

  2. dentssdunnigan says:

    2

  3. dentss dunnigan says:

    3

  4. Fintech says:

    Not here in Middlesex County NJ. Some Houses are still going over by 10k to 30k.

  5. leftwing says:

    Haha, chi, that was exuberance over META…may need to address with the therapist if my celebration is taken for anger lol.

    3b, down here on a short break.

  6. Juice Box says:

    Microsoft is wasting no time trying to monetize the AI chatbot from OpenAI. A $10 Billion dollar investment folks!!!

    Imagine getting chastised in the middle of a meeting by a chat bot…This is going to be fun to watch.

    “We’re bringing the power of large language models, including OpenAI’s GPT, to Teams Premium, as we make meetings more intelligent, personalized, and protected.”

    List price for Team Premium is $10 per profile monthly, but they will figure out how to bundle it with every Enterprise agreement and ram it down the corporate world’s throat.

    https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/blog/2023/02/01/microsoft-teams-premium-cut-costs-and-add-ai-powered-productivity/

    Leave a Reply

  7. leftwing says:

    “Trump has his trailer park minions against it claiming it’s for tax police that will go after the lower income tax payers (where there already is little to gain)…”

    Wake me when the top ten percent of the country isn’t paying 50% of all federal taxes.

    “…even though Biden promised it was for taxpayers making over 300K. Again, an amazing showman to the stupid.”

    You may want to check the juxtaposition of those two statements as belief in the first would roundly land you in the realm of the second….

    You actually believe anything that comes out of the senile old fool’s mouth and, if it sounds reasonable, believe he has any modicum of control over a Federal agency’s internal actions?

  8. Ex says:

    Taxes suck.

  9. 3b says:

    Left: Enjoy!

  10. Ex says:

    Lefty I’d still buy a round. Even though … you know..
    Ur Ghey.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Home prices continued their downward slide in November, though they remain up year over year, according to the CoreLogic Case-Shiller monthly index released on Tuesday.

    Translation: I pick things up and I put them down.

    Next year at this time they’ll still be up year over year and then will fluctuate sideways until the FED pauses, creating a mad dash to that newly listed dump. Draw a 50 mile radius around NYC. Everything for sale within that radius will cost you a loved one, a lung, a s.ex act and tears for the privilege of finalizing a closing and being handed a key to the front door. Then the real fun begins. You think stocks build wealth? That takes too long. Buy a shithole today, make 50K next year when you sell. Minimal down, sit and wait. Don’t do a thing. In fact, don’t even clean it, someone will buy it.

  12. Libturd says:

    Leftwing.

    Of course I thought of both of the things you point out. On the first, the cost to go after the peanuts is a losing proposition. The return on the cashews is significant enough to make it worthwhile. In the research I read on why the wealthy cheat so much on their taxes, the know the IRS does not have the resources to go after them. In 2022, 1/4 of the IRS’ auditing time went to the millionaires. This allowed them to check 1 out of 100 returns.

    On the second point, be careful about establishing that as your defense. It can be used as a lame excuse to nearly every situation.

  13. Hold my beer says:

    We might be getting a solar roof in March. Not added panels. The gaf solar roof with some of the shingles are solar. We have hail damage on current roof so insurance would cover cost to replace same basic asphalt shingle roof minus deductible. We could use that money towards same roof, a hail impact roof which would cost a few thousand more, or solar. The federal rebate would give us 30% back on the difference between deductible, insurance payout, and a solar roof.

    If solar shingle are 42k. Insurance and deductible for normal roof would be 20k. Rebate would be 30% of the 22k difference. It would be roughly an extra 15k for solar. Will have to get quotes first and have the gaf engineers run estimate on how much a year we’d save in electricity. The roof has a 25 year warranty too up to 130 mph wind, and you can add more solar shingles to it in the future. The normal shingles are the same size panels as the solar ones. Roofers would just take out normal ones and replace with solar shingles that plug in to existing solar..

    But we have to wait for the numbers to see is it really 40-42k for solar roof and would we save 2k+ a year in electric for only $500.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    President Joe O’Biden informed Congress on Monday that he will end COVID-19 on May 11, as most of the world has returned closer to normalcy nearly three years after the pandemic was first declared. This will be the 3rd time O’Biden has ended COVID but keep in mind, you still need to wear masks, test negative and s0cial distance.

  15. 3b says:

    Fast: if you want to be special and live with the best of the best, then pay the price. Its a privilege to live in this area, and particularly in Bergen, sure Essex has its Montclair and Glen Ridge, and Union Co has its Summit and Short Hills, but we have a whole county that’s special. From Maywood to Mahwah, and all points between, if it’s special you want then Bergen is your dream. Now get out there and snap anything up you can find.

  16. Libturd says:

    My zestimate is down from 915K to 835k (without any recent sales in a ten-house radius) since June 2022. Go take a look at your own. Yes, Zillow is doodoo. But the trend is your friend, when looking at multiple homes.

    I dare you to look up your own!

    I’m down 8.8% during a period of high inflation. Add in the 3.5% inflation and prices in these parts have dropped 10%!

    Go ahead and report back what your home has done.

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    Libturd,

    Last 30-day change:

    + $5,296 (+0.8 %)

    On the rise again! We take a punch here in prestigious Bergen County and get right back up! Oh wait… is that a unicorn in the yard? BRB!!

  18. Libturd says:

    Come on Gary, give me your last six months, not your hand pick tomatoes.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, I have said this over and over on this blog. Be careful using recent sales in a down cycle. Only houses selling now are POS. There is zero good inventory. The avg sales price is based on bs. Not reality. That is, unless you want to buy a pos.

    Libturd says:
    February 2, 2023 at 8:47 am
    My zestimate is down from 915K to 835k (without any recent sales in a ten-house radius) since June 2022. Go take a look at your own. Yes, Zillow is doodoo. But the trend is your friend, when looking at multiple homes.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Show me a beautiful desirable house that is discounted 10-30%. I don’t give a f/k what town it is either.

  21. Ex says:

    Zesti: $1, 006, 500
    -$19,974 (1.9%)

  22. trick says:

    Beer, I saw a special on those gaf shingles, didn’t know they started installing them. Seems like a no brainer for you.

  23. Chicago says:

    10Y 336
    Does 2Y go sub 4? GTFOOH

  24. Chicago says:

    VIX 17.5

    Why is Mike Wilson not picking up his phone?

  25. Juice Box says:

    re: Zestimate

    $942,000 down $20,000. No way no how I can get anywhere near that in this life or the next.

    We reassess annually too it’s up $220,000, some douche overpaid for a place around the block about $867,500 when it should have been maybe $750. There are no recent comps, place on corner sold for $777,000 in August also overpaid and dumped allot into it already for new roofing, siding, windows etc..

    Flipper purchased a small ugly fixer upper $550,000 two months ago, did siding, roofing, windows, kitchen and baths and sanded and painted and is now listed at $825,000 otherwise nothing else listed or has moved since last summer.

    I expect spring selling to be a bust and we will be back down 20% sooner than later.

  26. Hold my beer says:

    Trick

    It does seem like a good deal. With insurance and the tax rebate picking up over half the cost I think we would get double digit after tax returns on our portion above our deductible on the savings on our electric bill. And it would add value to our house too.

    Will have to wait for the quotes and engineer electricity savings estimates. They do multiple proposals. Basic solar install and a few more showing cost for so many additional solar shingles and what the additional electricity savings would be.

    We still wouldn’t have power in a blackout though. The solar batteries aren’t as powerful as even a cheap backup gas generator.

  27. 3b says:

    Market reading Powells comments as dovish, I don’t see anything dovish in his comments, and he again made it clear to me at least that he would rather risk over tightening then not. Market can’t understand we need to get back to a normal interest rate environment, not the fake market the Fed created by dropping rates years ago and keeping them there.

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    (Reuters) – Layoffs in the United States hit a more than two-year high in January as technology firms cut jobs at the second-highest pace on record to brace for a possible recession, a report showed on Thursday.

    The layoffs impacted 102,943 workers, a more than two-fold jump from December and an over five-times surge from a year earlier, according to the report from employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

    Ugh.

  29. 3b says:

    Juice: You never should have left Bergen Co, it’s obvious Monmouth is not special.

  30. leftwing says:

    “Of course I thought of both of the things you point out. On the first, the cost to go after the peanuts is a losing proposition.”

    Then just don’t fund it. The choice isn’t ‘we have to spend this money, on whom’. The choice is to spend it or not. Less government is better.

    “On the second point, be careful about establishing that as your defense. It can be used as a lame excuse to nearly every situation.”

    If you mean Biden is a senile old fool and the President doesn’t dictate how appropriations are spent by agencies, yes, both are true in every situation and again provide the argument (defense?) of just don’t spend the money.

    The reality is that these ‘budgeted’ savings never appear as forecasted, whether the forecasts and legislation are done by the Dems or Repubs. What happens is the government agency is expanded, the new employees go for the low hanging fruit (basic errors on basic returns in this case), and even if they get a few big hits those don’t provide a good return on the resources expanded….and – most importantly as to why these things never pay off as promised – once the first wave of action is done the additional personnel is permanent…these employees never go away. A step up addition forever to the cost basis of that agency.

    You want the best return on that money? Rather than hire an army of brand new pensionable, health care receiving permanent federal employees use it to ‘pay’ whatever you need to get to a simplified code…you would end in a day most tax leakage at any income level if everyone’s tax return could be done on a postcard. You could cut the IRS staffing in half, and actually substantially increase tax revenue collected….

    As you say…a showman for the stupid. In this case the showman is Biden and the stupid are Team Blue for believing it. Dumb isn’t limited to Team Red, Team Blue is taking this one full down the throat.

  31. Chicago says:

    Juice: thx for the Bell & Evans heads up. Stocked up last night

  32. Juice Box says:

    3B _ I have not lived in Bergen in over 30 yrs. I will visit from time to time and remark how much I hate the traffic and the lifestyle there. You get a small 50 x 100 lot old home that cost $450,000 with $12,000 a year in taxes. It’s nothing personal there are just better choices.

  33. leftwing says:

    “If solar shingle are 42k.”

    What coverage area for that price?

  34. Juice Box says:

    Chi – Bowl & Basket slimy chicken at Shoprite is $1.99 a lb this week until Saturday. Cheapest I have seen in a long time. I am still not allowed to buy it.

  35. Ex says:

    9:44 right now apparently people are sitting tight.
    Casually gazing at prices in RTP (NC). Family
    lives in NC. Like what I see price wise.

  36. Juice Box says:

    Beer is that the new GAF Timberline Solar roof?

    Seems it is available in NJ now, it’s a 1st generation product however. Here is a quick video, not as slick as Tesla Solar Roof but looks ok, some wiring protruding etc. They don’t cover the entire roof just the middle..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avgq0agNv9g

  37. Hold my beer says:

    Left wing

    It’s going to get measured next week. Got delayed a week due to our ice storm this week. A standard asphalt shingle roof for a house our size is roughly 20k. The roofer said basic gaf solar is roughly double the cost of standard asphalt shingles and the costs go up if we want additional solar shingles. If we went with the impact roof that can take 2” hail it would be roughly 15% more than standard roof.

    He also said once the solar roof is on it takes about 4-8 weeks depending on the town and utilities to get the solar functioning and hooked to the grid. Has to get a bunch of permits before it gets connected.

  38. prtraders says:

    Zestimate down 5.3% over last 6 months.
    That’s in Point Pleasant Boro. But we had a substantial COVID boom at the shore.

  39. Hold my beer says:

    I think the solar roof is more bang for the buck than tankless water heaters. Will get quotes on those too after the roof. I suspect it’s around 6k-7k to do our 2 tanks. Would only save a few hundred a year so will have to see cost difference between tank and tankless and estimated savings.

  40. Chicago says:

    You said “bang”

  41. 3b says:

    Juice: I understand. My wife and I are amazed how different the atmosphere In Monmouth Co is , as in nicer than Bergen. It’s amazing how crowded and congested Bergen has become in the last 30 years. Coming from the city I just laugh at how people here think it’s nirvana. Bergen Co has lots of positives , but it’s over rated in my view, and not as desirable as it was 30 years ago. Westchester Co would have been the typical move from the Bronx, but Bergen was the better value at the time.

  42. leftwing says:

    FYI SPY right now pretty super overbought on a measure that has a high hit ratio for the ensuing few days to week…I put on a bunch of 416/409 long put spreads, pays a 2x profit to risk…not advice, you do you….I’m keeping them on a short leash, if they lose 50% I’m out…

  43. Libturd says:

    The real value is just skipping NJ entirely and heading to Bucks PA.

  44. Libturd says:

    Leftwing,

    So far, I fought the FED and the Lib won.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/f6cm5H4feVP9Ni5R7

  45. Phoenix says:

    Chi – Bowl & Basket slimy chicken at Shoprite is $1.99 a lb this week until Saturday. Cheapest I have seen in a long time. I am still not allowed to buy it.

    And you shouldn’t. If it’s anything like their bowl and basket short expiration date milk.
    A whole week early.

  46. Phoenix says:

    ‘Let’s start treating each other with respect’: Biden’s plea to Kevin McCarthy and Republicans – as GOP prepares to investigate his family and Hunter

    Yeah, okay.

    Dolt.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you are here, it’s because you want to make money. That is the value. Sure, you pay more for housing, but the opportunity to make a lot more money significantly outweighs the cheaper alternatives. Either jobs or business, you are here because you want to make money.

    Libturd says:
    February 2, 2023 at 11:01 am
    The real value is just skipping NJ entirely and heading to Bucks PA.

  48. Phoenix says:

    New Jersey councilwoman, 30, is gunned down in her SUV outside her home: Republican was shot multiple times in ‘targeted’ attack while driving.

    Uh oh.

  49. 3b says:

    Lib: I agree Bucks Co is a nice area, much more for the money. And with WFH and hybrid, being close to NYC is not that important.

  50. Libturd says:

    Young black female Republican. Sure she didn’t shoot herself?

  51. Juice Box says:

    Sayreville.. 10 shots? That was someone with a grudge. They have camera footage of the shooter apparently.

    “Law enforcement sources tell News 4 that a significant number of shots were fired, perhaps 10 or more, and that there is security camera footage showing Dwumfour talking to a man standing outside her car just prior to the shooting.”

  52. BRT says:

    I live 10 minutes away from Bucks County. You have Princeton, Lawrence, Hopewell, Pennington, all very wealthy towns. Everyone’s house, the roads, magically get nicer in Bucks County for less money. And again…it’s 10 minutes away.

  53. BRT says:

    If I wasn’t forced by the Chris Christie edict forcing every teacher to live in state, I’d live in Bucks Co. right now.

  54. BRT says:

    I moved out of Bergen County (Bergenfield) into Monmouth (Wall) at 7th grade and lived there for 6 years. Still have all my family living there. I would much prefer Monmouth well over Bergen on any number of issues. The one thing that stinks about Monmouth is the magnet school system sucks dry all the talent in the general high schools.

    I feel the same way. Bergen has everything you need, you just can’t get to it. And I don’t consider it a privilege to pay 20k in taxes on a crap shack with no backyard. It’s my hometown and I still love the place, but there are better places to live.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Then why is it cheaper? Ask yourself that. Sure, if you have a fully remote job, go for it. Most people don’t. You pay for what you get. Value is in the eye of the beholder. Just because a location has lower pricing, doesn’t make it a value.

    3b says:
    February 2, 2023 at 11:54 am
    Lib: I agree Bucks Co is a nice area, much more for the money. And with WFH and hybrid, being close to NYC is not that important.

  56. leftwing says:

    Lib, happy for you brother and I was pulling for you…but unless I’m in a confirmed, sustained bull for me any binary, 50/50 stock trade is nothing other than betting Red/Black…

    Hell, even on my ST trades (11:00a above) I only enter with a skew…at least two out of three times this setup moves in my direction, closer to three of four actually…with a 2x max profit I usually exit at 1x profit or so and will pull out around 50% loss or so…that means an EV of 2.00 against 0.50 loss every three trades…THAT’S my trade….1.5x EV over each three trade series…or my META.

    If the market went down 10% yesterday rather than the bump we’re seeing? Literally I have exactly the same positive return on my entire portfolio out to year end.

    chi, still in META…was hoping to exit this morning since my ratio put long will still have some value (ie, that worst case 1/3 hit to my total remaining return only really happens closer to expiry, it retains value until then). My long calls are basically a one delta, moving up dollar-for-dollar with the stock unfortunately with vol holding up in this name the written calls are holding some premium…have about ten bucks in premium on the call writes (eventual profit) and about two bucks of total value on the put ratios (eventual loss)…that net of eight dollars of value still on the table divided by the position size makes it worth sitting on it for a bit…I’ll watch into the end of next week, without any more sharp moves in the stock that vol ought to come in and the write lose some premium (produce profit for me). If I can get the spread down to four bucks from eight that would be a threshold where holding the position for four more bucks likely isn’t worth it and I’d pull the trigger and exit…

  57. Chicago says:

    Left: good

    Just wondering if 4PM is just pigs for the slaughter.
    Can’t tell whether this is off the sidelines or short covering.

    If feels more the latter.

    Just feels if we are angling for max pain first up, then down.

  58. Ex says:

    12:31 why is it cheaper?? I’ll take property taxes for 1000 Alex…

  59. leftwing says:

    Home gamers on the SPY….it bumped its head four times at 417 in the last two hours…next important line down is 415.53, on the upside 420.26…

    Of course beyond 4:00p none of this matters as tonight (and obviously tomorrow BMO) is arguably among the top earnings day of the cycle…

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Econ 101….it’s cheaper because the avg person living in the location does not have the means to drive the price up because the local job market is chit for the avg individual.

    The higher the price of real estate/rent, the higher concentration of money being made in said location. If people with money move into lower price location to take advantage of the lower price, they will drive it up. Look at what remote work during the pandemic did to cheap locations? Drove up the price so much so, that locals now had to leave…it was no longer affordable for lower wage workers.

    There is no special place that has a ton of money making opportunities, yet is really cheap. It doesn’t exist on this planet.

    So if you are young and ambitious, you will move out of small town america with almost zero opportunities to move to the city for better opportunities. It’s as simple as that.

    Ex says:
    February 2, 2023 at 12:44 pm
    12:31 why is it cheaper?? I’ll take property taxes for 1000 Alex…

  61. 3b says:

    BRT: My Brothers friend moved to Bucks Co, a few years ago, and loves it. He has to commute in to mid-town twice a month, but says it s well worth it.

  62. Ex says:

    1:01 debt ratios in overpriced / overtaxed communities mean the people that live there are house poor. Nothing more.

  63. Ex says:

    Strategically it’s better to gtfo of the overpriced venues of at all possible.
    Once the crashes hit, the homeowners will be ” bag holders”.

  64. Libturd says:

    Leftwing,

    That wasn’t a guess. The bond market guaranteed it was a no brainer. The TA screamed, “trend change.” Oil prices, the largest contributing factor to inflation dropped tremendously. This was simply a lifetime of watching animal spirits. Could it have gone the other way? That is always a possibility. I can always sell pretty quickly with minimum pain. But right now, my timing is looking pretty brilliant. And keep in mind, if we get through tomorrow (Fridays be tough on bulls in a bear market) with this trend in tact, I’ll be looking to exit some of these positions at any sign of a turn. It’s all Roth and 401K money. No tax implications. Have to be careful of short-term trading fees in the 401K. Though, I have a feeling, this rally is gonna have legs for a while.

  65. BRT says:

    Then why is it cheaper? Ask yourself that. Sure, if you have a fully remote job, go for it. Most people don’t. You pay for what you get. Value is in the eye of the beholder. Just because a location has lower pricing, doesn’t make it a value.

    They live and work in the same buildings as everyone that lives in the upscale Mercer County towns. But their homes are nicer, stores are nicer, roads, school buildings, all nicer. Taxes lower.

  66. 3b says:

    BRT: Bucks Co median income (2021) is 99,0000.00 with a poverty rate of 6.5 percent. Bergen Ci median income (2021) is 109,000 with a 5 percent poverty rate. I would pretty comparable on the face of it.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nah, they end up doing what you want to do. They take their high priced home and sell it. They then move to a cheaper location when they no longer need to make money.

    Why did you move out of fly over country?

    Ex says:
    February 2, 2023 at 1:20 pm
    1:01 debt ratios in overpriced / overtaxed communities mean the people that live there are house poor. Nothing more.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Right… not even going to waste my time explaining the difference between princeton and bucks county.

    You are basically telling people who live in Montclair that they should move down the road to Fairfield.

    BRT says:
    February 2, 2023 at 1:26 pm
    Then why is it cheaper? Ask yourself that. Sure, if you have a fully remote job, go for it. Most people don’t. You pay for what you get. Value is in the eye of the beholder. Just because a location has lower pricing, doesn’t make it a value.

    They live and work in the same buildings as everyone that lives in the upscale Mercer County towns. But their homes are nicer, stores are nicer, roads, school buildings, all nicer. Taxes lower.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Think about what you are presenting here. I don’t know the details, but please don’t act like Bucks county presents the same opportunities to make money as Bergen County. That’s pure bs. Hence, the higher housing costs due to people with money competing and driving it up. So keep calling those Bergen county buyers idiots for buying what they want.

    3b says:
    February 2, 2023 at 1:33 pm
    BRT: Bucks Co median income (2021) is 99,0000.00 with a poverty rate of 6.5 percent. Bergen Ci median income (2021) is 109,000 with a 5 percent poverty rate. I would pretty comparable on the face of it.

  70. Boomer Remover says:

    Bucks’s Co. is nice. I had my wedding reception in a candle lit stone house used a grain mill around the time of George Washington. It closed due to the rona and never reopened. Sad!

    There was always a lot of wealth in Bucks, and some good private schools too.

    How about this market, eh?

  71. Libturd says:

    And some pretty good colleges too. And much less GHETTO.

  72. Ex says:

    I would not consider a move back to a metro area.
    Life is way to good in a nice suburb. North Jersey?
    Naw. Taxes are ridiculous. Structurally the place is a mess.
    Lots of great places to reside where you are not being subjugated
    to pay the tab for a bunch of creepy boomer slobs resting from a life
    of ” public service”.

  73. Libturd says:

    From noon on Saturday, January 28th.

    “On FOMO. That is exactly the reason I am moving back in. I have not given up on the chance the market chokes again. Though I expected to see more damage by now, and my sentiment has certainly changed in the short run. I still see pain, but I think it’s going to be at least next quarter and more likely end of Summer. This game of companies beating lowered expectations will only last so long. I think we are about to experience one heckuva headfake. I plan to sell into it to get back to my 50/50. And truth be told, when I was 30/70, that did not count the cash I got for my multi. That healthy wad of cash is approaching seven figures due to interest and the bank bonuses and some other money we came into. So though I am temporarily 70/30, the truth is, I’m really much closer to 50/50. You do realize how much I saved (opportunity cost) by exiting ALL of my positions near the tippy top in early December of 2021. I can afford a further drop here. I can’t afford being wrong if we have bottomed for good.

    So to explain the sentiment change. I think oil prices are peaking here among the transition to everything electric. Animal spirits are driving the market upward and this will continue as the praise for Powell and his brilliance in handling inflation makes him the temporary hero. I’m also beginning to see a lot of the Wall Street biggies saying the same thing. I think everyone is about to play this potential head fake. Market psychology, ignores fundamentals in the short run and they are absolutely unequivocally ignoring the impact the lack of ZIRP will have on the longer term. No one is even talking about it. It’s all soft landing, inflation getting under control (even though it took 4% FFR to get it from 9 to 6.5), labor shortages, etc. I’ve seen this Wall Street PR push time and time again. Meanwhile, every quarter sees lower and lower earnings which are cleverly hidden behind lowered estimates that will continue to be easily beaten. And like debt, they will eventually matter. But that’s in the longer run. In the short-run, animal spirits, driven mainly by bullshit Wall Street PR will rue the day. Throw in Biden and his positive spin machine and barring a black swan event, we should be good at least for three months. And throw in all of the positive news you will hear about housing in the next three months as the real estate season kicks in to full gear early February.

    There’s a lot more too it than this simplistic explanation, but I have to finish the doors in my basement. They are all up and hardware installed, but of course I went too conservative on the cuts, so I need to hand plane them all down between 1/8 and 1/4 inch. Especially considering that it’s the winter and there’s little humidity so the doors are not expanded.

    For one day, so far, I’ve been quite right. Looking at earnings so far this quarter, I expect to see a lot more of the same. Don’t be surprised if I’m back to 50/50 in my brokerage position of my net worth sooner rather than later. And as always, appreciate all of the advice.”

  74. Ex says:

    Omar “out” of key committee. Cannot stand her. Buuuuh bye beaaatch.

  75. BellEvans says:

    Juice,

    Your wife is smart not letting you by the cheap stuff. Most of those farms just throw new wood chips on top of the old ones that are soiled with chicken urine and feces. B&E literally throws out the soiled wood chips, cleans the floor and starts with new ones every time new chicks are introduced to the growing area. They don’t beat the hell out of their chicks either. Pretty interesting stuff on their websites. Costco birds don’t live such a nice life.

    https://www.bellandevans.com/our-farms/

  76. 3b says:

    Lib/ Ex : Thanks for the recommendation on Lenovo lap top. It came this morning. It’s light weight, and simple to set up. It’s exactly what I needed.

  77. Ex says:

    Niiiice!! New laptop day. Always fun.

  78. 3b says:

    Ex: Omar said she had no idea that there was negative stereotypes about Jews and money. She just was not aware of that. Whether it’s Dem or Repub, the crap they say with a straight face and expect people to believe it is just incredible.

  79. 3b says:

    Ex: Yes it is. Could not believe how easy and quick it was for set up.

  80. Libturd says:

    3b,

    I highly recommend you uninstall any of the Lenovo Operating System management stuff.

    Enjoy the laptop. I know that new laptop feeling. Especially if it’s your first with an SSD drive.

    My only complaint with Lenovo laptops are the quality of their batteries. Try to manage the battery well. At least once a month, let it go from fully charged to empty and charge it back up fully. It’s bad to run a laptop plugged in all of the time. You have to use your battery at different charge levels to maintain them. I’ve replaced a couple of them myself, and the cases never feel as tight as before I opened them.

  81. 3b says:

    Lib: Thanks for those tips , would not have thought of any of them , especially the unplugging the battery.

  82. Ex says:

    2:17 she married her f-cking brother in a green card scandal. Can’t believe she ever got elected. Creepy .

  83. leftwing says:

    “Home gamers on the SPY….it bumped its head four times at 417 in the last two hours…next important line down is 415.53, on the upside 420.26…”

    Spot at 414.30. Sticky point at 414.05. Next stop down would be today’s intraday low of 412.88. After that next support is all the way down to 410 range.

    Up or down into close boys and girls in the last hour? Cast your vote.

  84. 3b says:

    Ex: She is an ignorant and arrogant person, and incredibly ungrateful for all this country has done for her and her family.

  85. Libturd says:

    Sideways

  86. BRT says:

    Opening up some new shorts into earnings. This one way upward movement is too enticing. Rolling the dice….

  87. BRT says:

    short SP, QQQ.

  88. Libturd says:

    BRT, tight stops on this one.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is what happens when too many people are short heavily and there’s too much cash on the sidelines. You melt up…

  90. leftwing says:

    And right back to that 417 resistance level…15 more minutes now boys, let’s see which results we get out that may move this baby before trading on it shuts down.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    left: results don’t matter, right? So they all shit the bed, but where do we go?

  92. Libturd says:

    “left: results don’t matter, right?”

    All the Street cares about right now is reversing this bull. The bull was due to inflation. Inflation is clearly over. Animal spirits baby. Until valuations matter again. Perhaps next quarter. Or the following. ‘Cause you can put a knife in this one.

    2019-20, party over
    Oops, out of time
    Yeah-yeah
    So tonight, I’m gonna party like it’s 2019 (we gonna, whoa)
    2019 Don’tcha wanna go (2019)
    Don’tcha wanna go, oh (2019)
    We could all die any day (2019)

  93. chicagofinance says:

    Jobs…… let us see…..

  94. leftwing says:

    “That wasn’t a guess. The bond market guaranteed it was a no brainer.”

    Not going to lecture you because you don’t deserve it and I can see you’re in a mode where you wouldn’t listen anyway…anyone knowledgeable on this board not engaged in your trade will tell you where that kind of attitude above usually resolves, with certainty, and it’s not green…

    You went long 48 hours ahead of two central bank actions, including our own, every megacap earnings release, and some of the most populated earnings days of this cycle…unless you can convince me you knew of JPow’s slack attitude in the presser beforehand, and how META/GOOG/AAPL/AMZN earnings were going to turn out, it was a high volatility binary bet with outcome unknowable.

    Again, I’m happy you’re further invested and that this one worked for you…and I have zero dog in this fight. Just watch for tilt…

    I’m being your friend here, not your enemy.

  95. 1987 Condo says:

    Manor in West Orange closing.

  96. 3b says:

    1987: I saw that. That was an institution at one time from what I understand. We were at a wedding reception there some years back, as I remember it was a nice place.

  97. Ex says:

    7:48 damn.

  98. Ex says:

    I don’t think that I completely trust “good times”….because I know it’s only a matter of time until something shiny happens. It’s not always an upward trajectory. Career, money, etc. I will say that I’ve never lived anywhere prettier than here. It’s on an pretty crazy scale. Soaring peaks and our little burg nestled on an “arroyo” build up in the 80’s. Damn it feels good to be a gangsta.

  99. leftwing says:

    “left: results don’t matter, right? So they all shit the bed, but where do we go?”

    LOL, I think my ‘most likely’ outside moves were at 3600 and 4400….while I understand the market exists to extract maximum pain maybe we run to 4400 and then come off to 3600 shortly thereafter?

    Everyone’s happy, bulls get their run, bears get their 20% down albeit from a higher starting point :P

    Let’s see jobs tomorrow…although there can be a knee jerk reaction I think you and I agree bigger picture as long as they are within reason likely doesn’t matter…unless you believe JPow would not go 25bps in March the cake is already in the oven…and futes say there is an 86% probability of 25bps….

    Will be interesting to see the entire market’s take on AMZN and AAPL rather than a handful of humans and machines, especially after everyone has a night to absorb it.

  100. Libturd says:

    Futures are down 1.5% on the nasty. I’ll be giving some back tomorrow. Remember Leftwing, I’ve been sitting out since very near the top. Keep this in the back of your mind for of all of your calculations for me. We are now 2,200 points above the 52-week low. Wish I inched back in further at that low (which I did when I went from 30 to 50 in my long positions). The Canadian Central Bank had halted their rate increasing days before. Things are looking way better in Europe. This decision was not a guess. It’s not a short term trade. More than three quarters of my liquid wealth has been sitting dormant since November. This looked like the best opportunity so far for me to get back in. This is 20% of my stock portfolio. This is not an all eggs in one basket situation.

    As usual, I appreciate your advice. I do take it under advisement. Don’t worry, I’ve been investing this way for 40 years know. In bear markets, I adjust my portfolio based on my perception of the macro environment. I’m pretty good at removing the noise. I hope you are learning something from me.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Bosses Are Back in Charge

    CEOs are reasserting their authority now that workers are starting to worry about job security amid rising layoffs; ‘this whole concept of working from anywhere went too far’

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/layoffs-labor-market-bosses-power-workplace-11675347655

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hope those white collar workers enjoyed their payed vacation over the past 2 years…it’s over.

    Remember who said it (wfh was a product of an overheated labor market) first!!

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That was the ultimate sign of the bubble in the labor market….peak WFH.

    Now it goes …pop.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Home from the International Builders Show. Here are my three takeaways: 1. The new home cancellation rate has largely normalized; 2. Sales in January crushed expectations; 3. Builders had cautious optimism with many mentions of a head fake

    https://twitter.com/aliwolfecon/status/1621255957010591744?s=46&t=a6AeGXJUvCpn4pVdD2PF_Q

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cathie Wood says $ARKK is “the new Nasdaq.”

  106. Fabius Maximus says:

    Strong lineup for the hall of fame this year. Who you add, who do you take out for your five

    Automatic:
    Kate Bush
    Iron Maiden
    George Michael
    Willie Nelson

    Had to pick a fifth:
    Rage Against the Machine

    Any one of these could have went:
    Sheryl Crow
    Missy Elliott
    Joy Division/New Order
    A Tribe Called Quest
    The White Stripes

    Enjoy the nomination.
    Cyndi Lauper
    Soundgarden
    The Spinners
    Warren Zevon

  107. Ex says:

    I just voted. Cool to see the numbers.

  108. Bystander says:

    Damn, the Saleforce layoffs are dominating my LI feed. Guess it happened at 3AM. I count 12 so far today.

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Fundamentals lol

    $BBBY +37% on missing an interest payment.
    $CVNA +32% on not yet filing Chapter 11.
    $BYND +23% on negative gross profit.
    $META +23% on a revenue decline.
    $UPST +26% on who the f**k knows.”

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The entire CFA program and pretty much every business school in the U.S. teaches people to invest based on fundamentals.

    It just doesn’t work.”

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