Anti-NAR

Posted on November 5, 2006 by grim

Hat tip to CharlesM2, from the Boston.com message board, for creating this spoof of the newest NAR marketing campaign.

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46 Responses to Anti-NAR

  2. Judicious1 says:
    November 5, 2006 at 7:21 pm

    The cat is out of the bag…attempts by the NAR will be futile at this point. The smart agents are looking for alternative/second sources of income already.

  3. SAS says:
    November 5, 2006 at 7:29 pm

    lol

    Classic.

    SAS

  4. Metroplexual says:
    November 5, 2006 at 7:39 pm

    doesn’t HP have this up already?

  5. James Bednar says:
    November 5, 2006 at 7:50 pm

    The NAR ran their advertisement in six leading national papers. I think the spoof should run in every major bubble blog.

    jb

  6. It's crashing says:
    November 5, 2006 at 7:56 pm

    Hilarious!

    and so true….

  7. UnRealtor says:
    November 5, 2006 at 8:18 pm

    My comment in #7 is referring to the NAR ad posted by Jay in #1.

    http://www.realtor.org/files/home_buyers___sellers/good_time_to_buy_ad.pdf

  9. UnRealtor says:
    November 5, 2006 at 8:23 pm

    I received a phone call out of the blue last week from a realtor who I had spoken to briefly at an open house over 18 months ago.

    As desperation increases, the realtor lies and deception will get worse.

  10. Judicious1 says:
    November 5, 2006 at 8:32 pm

    UnRealtor –

    Was the realtor familiar with the term “catch a falling knife”? If so, that would probably cut the converstation real short.

  11. Clotpoll says:
    November 5, 2006 at 10:23 pm

    Judicious1 (from #2)–

    It’s the marginal agents looking for second sources of income. The good ones are grabbing a bigger slice of a shrinking pie. Established “old-timers” actually lick their chops and wait for times like these.

    And before you guys pile on, don’t even try to come back with anything other than the facts on this one. I know- and have employed- several of these “old-timers” and know whereof I speak.

  12. Seneca says:
    November 5, 2006 at 10:57 pm

    Clot – I don’t look forward to the newbie realtors having to close up shop and go back to waitressing, retail, teaching or whatever it is they did before they joined your ranks.

    I just wish one, just ONE realtor would send me a “fresh” (meaning its been relisted three times in realtor-speak) listing from a “motivated” (carrying three mortgages) seller that at least has the courtesy to list below 2005 peaks. All I get are the same old homes, still asking for 5% over 2005 peak prices. I know, I know, interest rates are still low. They were low 3 years ago and I couldn’t afford anything then either.

    Send me a listing that makes sense and I return your call. Here is what will help. You think the home is so great and priced right? Fine, then send me 2-3 recent comps (last two months closing) that show me the price is market rate.

  13. RentinginNJ says:
    November 5, 2006 at 10:57 pm

    Clotpoll,

    I think you are probably right. Over the last few years, agent incomes actually took a hit because so many new agents entered the business. While the pie was big, the slice per agent actually fell. Since houses practically sold themselves, a seasoned agent didn’t have as much opportunity to work the transaction.

    While all agents will probably take a short term hit, the longer term effect will be to thin out the herd. The Johnny Come Lately’s of the past 5 years don’t even know what a down market is. Those who have lived through a drought before will know how to make the best of it.

  14. Spelunker says:
    November 5, 2006 at 10:59 pm

    Like the whales, Realtors will need to live off of their fat for the winter. oh thats right, it will be longer than just a winter famine. Can fat reserves sustain a Realtor for the next 5 + years?

    Pack up the tent, the circus is over. Time to wrap sandwiches at Quiznos.

  15. RoadTripBoy says:
    November 6, 2006 at 1:19 am

    Great post, James. All I can say is what would we do without Edvard Munch? “The Scream” has served many purposes throughout the years. I can think of no better use of the painting than this.

  17. SG says:
    November 6, 2006 at 5:31 am

    USA Today Article.

    Low inflation rate? Some consumers beg to differ

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/inflation/2006-10-31-inflation-usat_x.htm

  18. Escape from NJ says:
    November 6, 2006 at 7:49 am

    My wife does all the recruiting in her firm. They have an admin position open now. They have received 15 resumes and 6 were from Real Estate Agents looking for new areas of employment. My wife disregards all real estate agent resumes because she is concerned that if hired, they will leave as soon as the next get rich quick scam comes down the pike. Sign of the times.

  19. BC Bob says:
    November 6, 2006 at 8:02 am

    Escape,

    My wife is looking, not a RE agent, good exp in the financial, ins and commercial RE, all as admin asst. Where is the firm??

  20. BC Bob says:
    November 6, 2006 at 8:36 am

    I did not see any mention of the below in this ad:

    “Even the savviest sellers can get stuck in this situation. NAR head Tom Stevens is himself a tweener: He’s been trying to off-load his Virginia home for more than a year. “The housing market is going through a period of adjustment,” he told Congress. “I have experienced this firsthand.”

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2006/11/01/8392461/index.htm?postversion=2006110213

  21. FirstTimeBuyer says:
    November 6, 2006 at 9:21 am

    Seneca-
    I actually saw a house this weekend that was listed pretty right on. Of course, the agent was encouraging over-bids in a “best and final” auction to be held next Sat at 6pm. Ugh.

    We saw two other houses this weekend priced about 5% above highest sale price the neighborhood had ever seen, obviously in an effort to get people to offer at the list they would have gotten six months ago. Not going to happen. We’re waiting to see if they stay on the market through the new year.

  22. ks2nj says:
    November 6, 2006 at 9:46 am

    I’m new to NJ, so any feedback on this scenario is welcome:

    South Brunswick house originally listed at $650K, dropped to $630K. Originally listed in Aug, ’06.

    Comparative houses have sold between 620k – 700K in 2005 and early 2006.

    Buyer purchased property in ’95 for $285k.
    (house built in ’92)

    I made an offer for $560K

    Seller came back with $609K (and brought the list price to $609K).

    It’s been two weeks, and I have not made a counter offer.

    Buyer has 3% + 3% agent commissions.

    Question:
    Jim (and others), if your really looking for a house, what would you do next?

  23. ks2nj says:
    November 6, 2006 at 9:48 am

    >> Buyer has 3% + 3% agent commissions.

    should read:

    seller is offering 3% + 3% agent commissions

  24. Escape from NJ says:
    November 6, 2006 at 11:17 am

    To BC Bob:

    Her company is in Hightstown, NJ (Mercer County). It is a chemical company. Position in HR dept. I think.

  25. Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 6, 2006 at 11:53 am

    The Head of the NAR was on CNBC this morning. the segmentwas AWESOME. He got his butt handed to him on a plate by Nouriel Roubini (sp?).

    Paraphrased, but close to accurate.

    CNBC: “why are you doing this campaign, is it because sales are so slow”.

    NAR : “why no, we’re at the 3rd strongest year for sales in HISTORY!!! in fact, since we’ve followed housing, housing prices have never come down! We project that housing will finish this year as the 3rd stongest year in history, and then next year housing will appreciate at 1-2%”

    CNBC: “If sales are so strong, why have a $40 million ad campaign then?”

    Him: “well, our members were worried because the media is portraying the market faslely as having a severe downturn, scaring buyers and sellers alike. We wanted to give a more balanced viewpoint. Thus, we did this ad campaign to show our members we’re behind them, and we won’t allow this biased journalism any longer”

    CNBC: “here’s our next guest: Nouriel Roubini (sp?). Sir what do you have to say”

    Roubini: “Well, the reason people are no longer buying as much as before is simply because housing is dropping at a rapid rate. And in fact, we expect housing to go through a severe depression, with housing values falling 20% more over the next year, they’ve already fallen 10% in most areas. As housing continues it’s depression, more and more contractors, homebuilders, real estate agents, brokers will find themselves unemployed, making the situation worse. Housing is simply unaffordable now. As for balanced journalism, I didn’t hear the NAR complaining about media attention the last 5 years, only now. it seems fairly obvious why they would need a $40 million ad campaign now, and it’s because housing is doing so poorly”

  26. UnRealtor says:
    November 6, 2006 at 12:14 pm

    “Jim (and others), if your really looking for a house, what would you do next?”

    I’m really looking for a house, and I’d wait until 2007/2008.

  27. UnRealtor says:
    November 6, 2006 at 12:17 pm

    Bob (Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005),

    Excellent, thanks for transcribing.

    Hope video of that exchange shows up on youtube.

  28. BC Bob says:
    November 6, 2006 at 12:49 pm

    Escape,

    Thanks!! My wife’s looking in NNJ. However, it is telling that 40% of the resume came from RE sales.

  29. Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 6, 2006 at 1:36 pm

    Another RE Myth…Look how fast asking prices are collapsing from last sales price…who said real estate can’t drop in price fast?

    http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/

  30. Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 6, 2006 at 1:39 pm

    Total Loss: $216,500 Percent Loss: 29.7%
    Asking Price: $511,500
    Bedrooms:6 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:3500
    Asking Price Changes:
    Down 21.3% from $650,000 On 10-28

    Previous Sales:
    Sold on 2006-05-05 for $728,000

    The House sold MAY 5 , 2006 AT $728,000

    NOW ASKING $650,000

    A MASSIVE CORRECTION IS IN PROGRESS, BUT THE TRANSPARENCY OF REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS IS NOT TIMELY….

    BLEED’EM DRY!

  31. Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 6, 2006 at 1:41 pm

    MISTAKE ASKING $511,500 FOR A LOSS OF NEARLY 30%

    baaaaaawahahahhaha

    This loss has occurred in about 5-6 months.

    Worry grubbers worry…

  32. Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 6, 2006 at 1:45 pm

    http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/

    hahaha

    Worry grubbers lean times are here…..

  33. Clotpoll says:
    November 6, 2006 at 5:27 pm

    To Seneca (from #12)–

    I’m not here to troll for biz, but thanks for the offer. Will try to post a couple of ML’s here that might fit your bill. If you like ’em, go straight thru the listing agents. The typical listing agent out there will mangle the disclosed dual agency…probably entirely in your favor.

    There are def. sellers out there putting homes out for well off the ’05 highs. Whoever has been feeding you listings must be asleep.

  34. Clotpoll says:
    November 6, 2006 at 5:42 pm

    Seneca-

    Check out the MLs below. Either they’re priced pretty right or have sellers who are probably dying to get any kind of qualified offer. Several of these have been listed 2-3 times via the old trick of withdraw & relist when the days-on-market get too fat:

    2288039
    2312633
    2296151
    2336627
    2303696
    2324124
    2295174

    Again, shoot at the listing agents. I really, truly am not here to drum up business.

    Good luck.

  35. UnRealtor says:
    November 6, 2006 at 5:53 pm

    Clotpoll, half a million bucks for a cape?

    Let those sellers “die” some more.

  36. FirstTime BuyerNotBuying says:
    November 6, 2006 at 7:10 pm

    False Bottom
    What he hell is (Fecalbrain)Greenspan trying to convince us that the worst is over.

    How does he know?

  37. Seneca says:
    November 7, 2006 at 10:13 am

    Clotpoll,
    Thanks for the MLS#s. These are all decent enough looking homes and were they not a solid 2 hour+ commute from NYC, I would love to live in one. Nice size lots on the Readington homes and appear to be in decent shape. I can’t say for sure if they are worth the money because I don’t know what comps are in that area and bottom line is, if I take 2001 comps and gross up to 2005 reasonable prices, my guess is they are still way off base.

    The realtor who will get my business will start sending me listing with the following information:
    Asking price, most recent sale price of same home and/or comps on similar homes within a 1/4 mile radius over the past 5 years. That tells me whats a reasonable price for the home.

    Thanks for the follow-up.

  38. Clotpoll says:
    November 7, 2006 at 8:23 pm

    Seneca–

    Stop torturing yourself. If you want things your way, it’s going to take longer & a lot more sellers will have to feel more pain. In the past month, I’ve marketed a solid, clean, partially-renovated 4BR colonial on 2 acres in Readington (falls right into the group of ML’s above) for 555K off a 570K asking price. Had steady showings and went under contract in under 2 months…with another buyer lurking in the wings. Get your agent to show you what IS selling…you will see that the houses that do move are doing so at a level WAY above where you want to be.

    This probably won’t come as news to you, but if you want a viable NYC commute (Basking Ridge, Green Brook, etc), tack on 100K+ to prices of similar homes located west of 287.

    This whole idea of taking ’01 prices and trying to work some sort of formula to arrive at what’s “fair” right now is for the birds. All it takes is some other buyer out there who is more motivated to buy…and your formulas are up in smoke. We may well see the big crash everyone here is so confidently counting on; however, right now, there is a small pool of ready buyers supporting sales in a higher range than where you want to be.

    RE is not a commodity. You can comp, assess price ranges and plot offer strategies ad nauseum. It’s just too bad you can’t quantify ego, emotion, insecurity, need to impress and fear of loss. That’s what drives everything in this game, and you ignore those driving factors at your own peril. I’m not saying you are wrong here…just that things aren’t lined up right for you yet.

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