This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From Bloomberg:
Global Rate Increase Yields Haze of Explanations: Caroline Baum
On or about May 15, U.S. long-term interest rates started to rise. The rise turned into a rout last week.
The U.S. isn’t alone in seeing the federal government’s borrowing costs ratchet higher. Long-term rates have been rising, or had been, prior to the U.S., in the U.K., the euro zone, Japan, Australia, Brazil, other emerging markets — pretty much everywhere, in fact.
It’s no secret that global long-term rates are strongly correlated, even when countries are in different stages of the business cycle. Demand for credit knows no bounds, lifting all boats simultaneously as they compete to attract capital.
From the Record:
Proposal may slash emissions in N.J.
A bill to slash New Jersey’s global-warming emissions cleared another hurdle in the state Legislature on Thursday and supporters said it could face a final vote within weeks.
The state Assembly’s Telecommunications and Utilities committee approved the measure, 6-1, despite misgivings from some members about the potential impact on energy prices and the economy.
“Many of our businesses are already leaving because of high taxes,” warned Assemblywoman Joan Voss, D-Fort Lee.
Nonetheless, Voss and other colleagues eventually supported the bill, won over by testimony from environmental groups and power companies who said the state couldn’t afford not to act.
CPI due out at 8:30am
Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization out at 9:15am
Consumer Sentiment out at 10am..
Housing Collapse Squishes Bear
http://tinyurl.com/2lgzn2
Happy Friday bubble bloggers!
City of Seattle may ban microwave popcorn
10:36 AM PDT on Thursday, June 14, 2007
By ROBERT MAK / KING 5 News
AP
SEATTLE – At Seattle City Hall there are rules.
No weapons, no animals, no loitering, no alcohol, no lying down, no smoking, no music, no fighting, no trespassing.
Could the next thing be no microwave popcorn?
“It can be a significant problem in the future,” says Seattle Facilities Director Pedro Vasquez.
The City Facilities Department has just issued a memo to all City employees.
The Justice Center has been evacuated eight times in three years, forcing the evacuation of more than 400 people. If the problem continues, it will result in a ban of all microwave popcorn.
So, when will New Jersey get on this bandwagon? NJ loves legislation like this!
Anti [4],
I guess we can lay to rest the notion that the subprime is an isolated hiccup, only affecting the unqualified buyer and inner cities. We were told, not to worry, they are protected with derivatives. I’ve said all along that risk may go out the front door but comes in, many times over, thru the back door. How about all the crap that is off the books? Not marked to the market but marked to a model. What assumptions are programmed into that model?
I really shouldn’t feed the $300 Jeans monster, but I just can’t help myself..
$700,000 pens and $40,000 purses raise a new luxury standard
Nadine Absolam, a 32-year-old Brooklyn resident, says she likes to have the trendiest designer items, but she said it’s getting harder to come up with the cash.
“My first priority should be my bills. But these designers bring out so many hot items that you must have these things,” said the Pilates instructor. “I am always late with my bills.”
Absolam spends about $1,000 in clothing and accessories per month, about half of her monthly salary. One of her most recent buys was a $1,100 Gucci messenger bag; her boyfriend last Christmas bought her Fendi’s “Spy bag,” priced at around $3,000 and coveted by fashionistas.
“I can’t keep wearing my Spy bag. I have to change it,” to look fresh, Absolam said.
Others like Jennifer Sandovan, 28 of Yonkers, N.Y., say they just don’t want to be part of it.
“I think it’s a waste,” she said. The most Sandovan pays for a handbag is $50.
I am glad my future wife isn’t materialistic and into that garbage…
I don’t know if you are familiar with the “Winthrop Court” active adult luxury condo complex in Clifton at the intersection of the Parkway and Route 46.
The used to have a billboard advertising units “starting in the high 300’s”
About a year ago, it was changed to “starting at $359,000”
Yesterday. I saw a crew changing the billboard to “starting at $349,000”
JB [3],
Also;
Current Account- 8:30
Real Earnings- 8:30
Fed Atlanta Conference- Bernanke-8:30
NY Empire State Manuf.- 8:30
International Capital Flows- 9:00
Fed’s Yellen- 12:20
Potential for an explosive day.
So, when will New Jersey get on this bandwagon? NJ loves legislation like this!
One they finish the “no cell phone while riding a bike bill”.
I thought that the “texting” while driving ban was next on the agenda.
jb
I can fill up the gas tank in my lawnmower, but somehow I am legally not allowed to do it on my car. What a wacky state.
Thanks to all who contributed to the discussion on financing college, especially establishing residency for state schools. It’s amazing the nuggets of info one can pick up here. I’ve been considering the residency issue because with the state funding cuts the NJ schools I don’t think are that good a value anymore. Looks like I better tighten the belt some more and pay the tariff. A state university even at out-of-state tuition is less expensive than most second-tier private schools, so I guess that’s some consolation.
by Paul CoxFriday
In the past two decades, New Jersey has on at least four other occasions granted generous early retirement benefits, and in each case, experts say, the plans cost the state more than it saved, according to a report in the New York Times.
These and other pension enhancements, combined with years of skipping payments into the system, have undermined the state’s ability to meet its pension obligations without raising taxes, borrowing money or shifting money from other state programs, experts and lawmakers warn.
“Collectively as a Legislature we really never learn,” said Senator Shirley K. Turner, a Democrat from Mercer County, who was a prime sponsor of the 2002 early retirement bill but now regrets its passage. “We want to please people, we want to make them happy. But it has to be paid for. That’s how we’ve mortgaged the future.”
Bold off bold off
Yes, I second twiceshy in thanking everyone for the college (and stroller) info.
Presently gearing up for a relaxing Father’s Day weekend where my poor husband is getting…a diaper bag. Oh well, I guess he needs it.
#15 Twice shy:
http://www.petersons.com/common/article.asp?id=1872&path=ug.pfs.advice&sponsor=1
Like I said before, the trick is to not try any tricks, but actually have your kids move- as adults- to the state and work for a year or so before enrollment. You can’t claim them on your taxes either. It’s not easy, but it’s not impossible.
NY Times
Trying to Save, New Jersey Drove Up Pension Costs
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/15/nyregion/15pension.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
In 2002, struggling to close a huge budget gap, the New Jersey Legislature hurriedly passed a bill offering thousands of state employees generous early retirement packages. Unions applauded because layoffs had been averted. Gov. James E. McGreevey claimed the state would save millions by cutting its payroll.
But those savings have proved negligible compared with the long-term cost of the plan. By its own accounting, the state would have to set aside $617 million today to finance those sweetened pensions, double the amount it says it will have saved by trimming the work force and reducing salaries.
In the past two decades, New Jersey has on at least four other occasions granted generous early retirement benefits, and in each case, experts say, the plans cost the state more than it saved.
These and other pension enhancements, combined with years of skipping payments into the system, have undermined the state’s ability to meet its pension obligations without raising taxes, borrowing money or shifting money from other state programs, experts and lawmakers warn.
…
A review by The New York Times of New Jersey pension records and government and legislative reports relating to its 2002 early retirement plan reveals the following problems:
– More than 5,500 workers — better than twice what the state had originally projected — received early retirement packages, which added thousands of dollars to many workers’ annual pensions. The larger number of retirements has meant higher than projected long-term costs to the pension and retiree health care systems.
– Though the McGreevey administration pledged to keep half of the vacated jobs open for three years, only 210 state-financed vacancies remained by the end of the next fiscal year. The total amount spent on state salaries did not decline.
– More than 2,000 of the retirees were in federally financed jobs for which the state did not realize any saving in salaries. Yet the state will still have to cover their retirement costs.
In his budget address this year, Gov. Jon S. Corzine warned that New Jersey faced a $25 billion shortfall in the $80 billion pension system. Some experts say the gap is much larger.
Mr. McGreevey did not respond to requests for interviews on the 2002 plan, but state officials who worked under him have said the plan helped keep down state spending and helped the administration close a $5.3 billion budget gap without undue pain.
Those officials also acknowledge that they knew savings from the early retirement program would not last long.
“We never thought it would be a real long-term savings,” said John E. McCormac, who was Mr. McGreevey’s treasurer and an architect of the 2002 plan. “There were a lot of promises made, but at the end of the day, those commitments weren’t honored, because the departments said, ‘I can’t do with less.’ ”
…
During his election campaign, Mr. McGreevey, a Democrat, had forged a close alliance with the state’s powerful public employee unions, so he was hesitant to lay off workers. He had also pledged not to raise taxes. So he turned to other measures to close the gap.
..
To encourage people to leave government service, the plan offered employees one of three pension sweeteners based on their age and length of service: extra years of service credit, free health benefits, or $500 a month for 24 months.
For most employees, the enhancements meant thousands of dollars more each year in pension payments. A doctor at Hunterdon Developmental Center, for example, retired with three extra years of service credit and an annual maximum pension of $81,470.83. Without the additional credit, his pension would have been $74,007.85, a difference of $7,462.98. New Jersey also adds a cost-of-living adjustment each year.
In 2002, the McGreevey administration projected that the early retirement plan would save about $50 million in the first year and $261 million in salaries, benefits and taxes over five years. But for those savings to occur, the state said some things had to happen:
First, 2,481 employees would have to take advantage of the incentives. Second, the state would have to hold open half those vacated positions until 2005. Then, it could fill only 10 percent of the openings each year.
None of that happened.
Perhaps because of the generous terms, more than 5,500 employees retired with the incentives. Half of those retirees worked in jobs at universities, colleges or agencies in which the federal government provided money for their positions. Their departures did not reduce state salaries; but with some exceptions, the state still had to pay for their pensions.
The administration did identify 2,573 full-time employees in state-paid jobs whose retirements produced salary savings. But instead of holding most of their jobs open for several years, the state filled nearly all of them quickly; only 210 remained vacant at the end of the 2003 fiscal year.
Because the state filled so many positions so quickly, it appears that the early retirement plan had minimal effect on the state’s payroll. Indeed, a review of state records shows that the state’s salary costs rose at an even pace before and after the 2002 plan was enacted.
The state, however, says salary costs would have risen even higher had the plan not been enacted. And it asserts that savings from the plan have grown to $314 million, though the accuracy of that number is difficult to determine because the state has never performed a job-to-job analysis of the savings. Instead it relied on averages to estimate savings.
By the state’s own calculations, it also turns out that the cost of the early retirement package to the pension system is now more than double what the state projected in 2002: $616.8 million in today’s dollars, instead of $278.1 million. The cost appears to have grown because more employees than predicted took advantage of the plan and the state needed to pay for pensions for the replacement workers.
Experts say that New Jersey’s experience with the 2002 plan is quite typical of early retirement programs. Alan R. Kooney, a former legislative budget and finance director whose office reviewed the 2002 plan, said such packages were used during crises because they provide immediate savings without painful layoffs or service cuts. But those savings, he said, are almost always dubious propositions in the long run.
Still, New Jersey has tried them again and again: in 1991, 1993, 1997 and 1999 — all years when it faced budget shortfalls. At present, more than 20,000 retirees, or about one in 10, benefit from some sort of early retirement incentive.
Thomas Bryan, who was director of the Division of Pensions and Benefits in 2002, said those earlier programs did not seem to have saved as much of the money as had been anticipated. And a task force appointed by Acting Gov. Richard J. Codey to scrutinize employee benefits urged the state in 2005 to declare a permanent moratorium on early retirement plans because of their large, long-term liability.
The current state treasurer, Bradley I. Abelow, said he was “highly skeptical” of early retirement incentives but did not rule them out as a way to encourage local governments to consolidate services.
Despite that poor track record for early retirement plans, the 2002 bill passed quickly: just 18 days from its introduction to its final approval. (The only debate was over whether to expand the plan to include thousands of teachers and municipal employees. After Mr. McGreevey objected, that idea was shelved until the following year when the Legislature enacted it.)
The 2002 package was also approved without being reviewed by a 10-member state panel appointed by the governor and legislative leaders that customarily examines pension-related bills. That panel, the Pension and Health Benefits Review Commission, has opposed early retirement plans because of the costs they impose on the system.
But in 2002, the panel did not meet once, records show, because the administration had not filled vacancies and then failed to convene the group.
Mr. McCormac acknowledged that the early retirement measure had contributed to the pension system’s current fiscal trouble. He asserted, however, that its impact was small compared with other measures, including a benefit enhancement in 2001 that increased all state pensions by 9 percent, and stock market losses between 2000 and 2002.
But even some prominent lawmakers who supported the 2002 measure now say it was a mistake.
“All too often in state government we look toward short-term immediate solutions to problems without looking at the long-term consequences,” said John Bennett, a Republican and former Senate president who voted for the measure but now says it was a mistake.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May CPI up 0.7%, but core is up just 0.1%
Higher energy prices drove the consumer price index up by 0.7% in May, its largest increase since Hurricane Katrina and the second largest in 16 years, the Labor Department reported Friday. But while consumer inflation was scorching hot, the core rate of inflation – which excludes food and energy costs – rose just 0.1%. Core inflation has thus risen at 2.2% in the past 12 months, the smallest gain in more than a year and close to the Federal Reserve’s target range. The 0.7% gain on the headline CPI was just as expected. But the 0.1% increase was less than the 0.2% anticipated by economists. The 0.7% increase was led by energy, food and communication costs. Inflation moderated for shelter, apparel and prescription drugs.
Wow. longer than I thought…abd I even cut it down some. sorry
Still worth the read
From Bloomberg:
New York Fed’s Manufacturing Index Jumps to 25.8 This Month
Factories in New York state expanded at a faster rate this month as new orders and shipments rose, evidence a pickup in manufacturing is being sustained.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to 25.8 from 8.03 the prior month, the bank said today. Readings greater than zero signal expansion.
Companies are revving up production plans as demand in the U.S. and overseas improves. A recovery in manufacturing, together with stabilization in home construction, will help the economy accelerate after the slowest pace of growth in more than four years last quarter.
“Manufacturing has turned up pretty sharply,” Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. “Final demand is reasonably strong and inventories are less of a drag.”
Economists forecast the New York manufacturing index would rise to 11.3 from an originally reported 8, according to the median of 46 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 8 to 15.
bigwindow
I really hope that there are a couple women left with a realistic expectation of what they will have at what life stages.
Not everyone gets to marry a MD or an Investment Banker.
#15 twice shy Out of state poublic universities are not really cheaper for the most than NJ’s.
For instance. Univ Del Out of state is around 24K. Univ MD, Towson, Penn State all around 25k.
Univ VT 36K!!!!
The NJ Universities are around 19 to 20K. Grant it they are not the price value they once were, but still cheaper in many cases than going out of state.
3B and Possiblebuyer,
Thanks again. I’m keeping all options open, but my little princess flatly refuses an in-state school. Given the overall outlook for young people being educated, employed, living and eventually settling in this state, I’m not sure I just don’t agree that she should get out while the getting’s good. At least I only have one, and a $5k difference between say U Del and Rutgers isn’t a deal breaker.
No link;
Vladimir Putin says he wants “a new architecture” for the world.
What?
Bauhaus? Arts and crafts? Frank Lloyd Wright?
He means he is sick of U.S. hegemony. He would prefer that the world
economy not be dominated by the dollar and that world politics not be
under the thumb of the Pentagon.
He speaks for the Chinese, no doubt, and for the French, the Arabs…and
many others.
And guess what. He will get his wish.
Wealth and power are migrating, as Dan Denning puts it, from the West to
the East. Growth rates are faster in the East…taxes are lower…and
‘legacy costs’ – pensions to unionized workers, for example – barely
exist. Cash piles up in the hands of the Chinese, for example, at the rate
of billions per week. Meanwhile, in the U.S.A, cash leaves the country on
a one-way ticket. The trade deficit sucks out $2 billion per day. The
interest on the U.S. federal debt totes to over $8 trillion, with interest
payments of over $1 billion a day (much of it paid to foreigners). Just
those two items alone add up to more than $1 trillion per year.
But wait, you say; doesn’t the money come back to the United States – as
the foreigners recycle it into U.S. Treasury bonds and other U.S.
investments? Yes, much of it does. But it comes back wearing funny clothes
and speaking a strange accent. It leaves as an asset – and comes back as a
liability! For now, it is no longer something that makes Americans richer;
instead the returned dollars are a measure of our poverty. It is as if got
on the plane like an old friend – and came back a slave master. Now, we
work to pay it interest and dividends.
NJGAL
I think this is what you are looking for, although with the invention of the personal computer…… it could be made so much cheaper. http://www.helloemeralds.com/emeralds/product.asp?s%5Fid=0&dept%5Fid=3172&pf%5Fid=PAOHIDBPLIIEBJDN&
KL
fresh evidence that the bond rout was overblown and the Fed won’t be raising rates. i’ll repeat myself i expect the 10 year to be somewhere around 5.10% come year-end then move up 25-40 bps by end 2008.
New video Today! Subprimes, Foreclosures, the Fed and an Economist
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=228
A series of segments discussing topics from the subprime meltdown on Bear Stearns latest results, the Mortgage Bankers Association record quarterly results for foreclosures and new proposals for the Federal Reserve action against subprime and predatory lending. Includes an interview with PNC Financial Services Group Economist Stuart Hoffman who sees housing as a drag on the economy for the rest of 2007 and into 2008.
Originally aired on: 6/14/2007 on Nightly Business Report
Running Time: 9 minutes 9 seconds
KL, that is too funny. Unfortunately, everyone told me yesterday that with AMT, the baby will NOT be a tax deduction. Poor thing, won’t even get her onesie!
“fresh evidence that the bond rout was overblown and the Fed won’t be raising rates.”
Richard,
Utilizing the same crystal ball that told you to buy RE at the market/all time high?
fresh evidence that the bond rout was overblown and the Fed won’t be raising rates. i’ll repeat myself i expect the 10 year to be somewhere around 5.10% come year-end then move up 25-40 bps by end 2008.
So what you are saying is that the headline CPI is completely meaningless.
The 0.7% increase is the largest single-month increase in the past 20 months. And the second largest single month increase in 16 years. If we annualize the first few months over the year, consumer prices are increasing at somewhere over 5%, just about double what we saw last year.
jb
>>The 0.7% increase is the largest single-month increase in the past 20 months.
you can’t annualize it. most of it was due to gas prices and yet again it isn’t spilling over into core prices hence why the market is expected to rally today. watch core prices the rest is too volatile.
From the BLS:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
During the first five months of 2007, the CPI-U rose at a 5.5 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006.
#29 Nobody for the most part here was indicating that the Fed would raise, the arguemnt was whether the Fed would lower this year.
My stance since the end of last year was that there would be no Fed cut this, year period.
I also said the Fed would raise before it lowers, and still stand by that, although it may not be this year.
The rise in long rates willl continue,and is seperate from what the Fed will or will not do. As we all know the Fed has no control over long rates. Overblown? No, its just long rates getting to where they need to be via the rest of the world.
This whole discussion however changes nothing in relation to the housing market. Prices are declining and will continue to decline into 2009, and that is a good thing.
#27 BC Excellent. Perhaps you can print that, laminate it, and pass it out to the clueless American people.
This is all unfolding in front to us, and the vast majority of Americans have not a clue.
Richard #29, when you state something as a fact it will be nice to have a link to the source.
Hey, question all – on line savings accounts. I have 2 – ING and HSBC (for the interest rate). I am really unhappy with HSBC – very slow, very annoying and difficult to use. Anything else as fast and customer friendly as ING?
From MarketWatch:
Bernanke calls for study of effect of home price drop on spending
The effect of changes in home values on consumer spending remains an open question and would be a fruitful field for academic research, said Fed chief Ben Bernanke on Friday.
While there is some research that suggests that a drop in home values may effect spending by more than conventional wisdom, there is no conclusive evidence one way or the other, Bernanke said in a speech prepared for delivery to a conference on banking and economics sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
“I do not think we know at this point whether, in the case of households, these effects are quantitatively significant in the aggregate,” Bernanke said. “Certainly, these issues seem worthy of further study,” he said.
Bernanke did not address current economic conditions in his prepared remarks. But on the margin, concern over the financial condition of homeowners might be a factor in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate deliberations.
Ever since the housing market slumped, economists have been debating whether a hypothetical nationwide drop in home prices would damage economic growth.
thatbigwindow Says:(#14)
________________________________________________
June 15th, 2007 at 8:19 am
“….I can fill up the gas tank in my lawnmower, but somehow I am legally not allowed to do it on my car. What a wacky state….”
__________________________________________________I assume that you would like to fill your car’s gas tank yourself and not have a service station employee do that ?—-How would that be better for New Jersey motorists ? —-Do you really believe the BS from ‘BIG OIL’ that we would have less expensive gasoline at the pump ??—Show me cheaper gas costs than NJ in surrounding states !!
I had traveled to the Albany NY area last year and had witnessed the mess when you have twenty-or-so gas pumps at the SELF-SERVICE station off the Interstate and with a corresponding amount of VERY unhappy customers inside the ‘pay GAS N’ GO store’ waiting on the large line for the ONE clerk who ALSO sells cigs and candy etc….
Sure, Many customers today use credit cards to pay at the pump—but many don’t…. But why would YOU want to give this up and get NONETHING in return from the Gasoline Companies ??—Would YOU like to be a ‘gas jockey’ for FREE ??
Every few years “BIG OIL” trys to get one-or-two of ‘our’ elected Trenton boyz to push for a SELF-SERVICE law —–And so-far this has been ‘canned’…..48 other States in the union have it, That doesn’t mean that New Jersey has to be stupid too !
“watch core prices the rest is too volatile.”
Richard,
Total disagreement. However, what else is new.
Volatility can be described as big mom swings. Guess what, when these prices are consistent, food and energy, on a yearly basis, then vol is thrown out the front door. Do you thing food and energy costs are a temporary blip? Nonsense, once again. A better way to measure is a 3/6 month moving average. Headline inflation is here to stay. The govt may try to downplay it. Unfortunately, our wallets speak louder volumes.
#42 BC My wallet was apseking loud and clear in Shop Rite last night.
#40 JB i would say to Mr. Bernanke, no need for academic research on this, its just coommon sense.
Housing going up th people say I feel wealthy I spend more, housing going down, I do not feel as wealthy now, so I will not spend.
It is incredibly easy to justify spending when house price are rising, not so when they are falling.
There Ben, its all done for you.
>>The govt may try to downplay it. Unfortunately, our wallets speak louder volumes.
keep crying, no one but a small minority are listening. overall unemployment is low, wages are strong, core inflation is moderating, still plenty of credit available to keep the party going, house prices have held up fairly well considering the recent frenzy. sunny skies folks so stop bitching and complaining about how everyone’s an idiot for not seeing what you see and give you their house for .50 on the dollar.
I went to a local carnival last night on staten island. After paying a 6 dollar admission it was 3 dollars a ride per person. 9 dollars per car to bump for 4 minutes.(me,wife,2yr old daughter). After a half hour and a bunch of rides for the little one I spent over $100.
The funny part was that it was packed and people were waiting on line with their little kids to ride.
#45 Richard,
good post.
Wow, pissiest post yet from Richard. It’s a Friday, be happy.
#41:
When I am waiting for my gas because the station only hired one attendant to pump gas
When the attendant breaks my gas door because he slammed it closed
When the attendant gets gas on my paint
Yes, as someone who values the condition of their car, views time as money, and feels that the government is too big as it is..yes, I want to be able to CHOOSE to pump my own gas.
Stop thinking about yourself, and let the market decide. Just like the smoking ban. Personal rights are quite important and they are being taken away by pointless legislation. I dont want the govt saving me from myself. Pumping gas is safe, which was the initial premise for that law.
NJGal Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 9:44 am
Hey, question all – on line savings accounts.
NJGal,
Citi offers 3 types of online savings account with 5%, 4.65% and 4.5% rates.
Basically for the 5% account, we can only open it online. And the checking account linked to it need to have at least 2 online payment a month.
I hope this helps.
CC
Let the market decide. Full-service, or self service. I mean, even at grocery stores we can check ourselves out or we can go to the clerk if we want. I rather do things myself. Some might want someone to do it for them. Why not have a choice? Nope, this is NJ, where the govt makes choices for you. Want to go to a bar and have a smoke? Nope, it is bad for you. Let the market decide. I am sure there are yuppie bars which smoking is frowned upon, and likewise there are old man bars which enjoy a smoke and a beer. If you are a bar owner, shouldnt you decide what is more profitable? Banning trans-fats? gimme a break. Work on property tax reform, not what kind of oil my french fries are cooked with.
Ranting…
From Bloomberg,
Bear Stearns to Liquidate Bond Hedge Fund, People Say (Update5)
By Jody Shenn and Yalman Onaran
June 14 (Bloomberg) — Bear Stearns Cos., the second-biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, is liquidating holdings from one of its hedge funds after making money-losing bets on subprime mortgage bonds, said three people with knowledge of the decision.
link
CC
You happy with them Chaotic? HBSC I am just finding hard to use and really slow when it comes to money transfers – ING, on the other hand, is really easy and gets money moved within a day or 2.
Richard,
Nobody is crying. I’m along for the ride.
4 months ago 5% was an anomaly, at least to you. Then again, you were in agreement with BOOYAAA until you caved in. Worlwide rates/momemtum are rising. The 1st time home buyer, along with the move up market, is out to pasture. Spreads are starting to widen. I never said .50 on the dollar. However, I will be buying at 30-40% off 2005, between 2008-2011. Until that time, I’ll watch my former house $ grow and sit back and watch the carnage. No problems, just future opportunities.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell in June
Confidence among U.S. consumers dropped this month as interest rates rose, home values dropped and gasoline held above $3 a gallon, a private report today showed.
The Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary index of sentiment declined to 83.7 this month, the lowest reading since August, from 88.3 in May. Americans’ perception of the outlook for inflation worsened.
Americans aren’t letting their concerns stop them from shopping, as a report earlier this week showed retail sales jumped in May by the most in more than a year. As long as wages keep rising and the economy keeps creating jobs, consumers will continue to support the expansion, economists said.
“Spending continues to be solid in spite of higher gasoline prices and mixed readings on consumer sentiment,” Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “The relatively strong job market has kept spending energized.”
NJGal Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 9:44 am
Hey, question all – on line savings accounts. I have 2 – ING and HSBC (for the interest rate). I am really unhappy with HSBC – very slow, very annoying and difficult to use. Anything else as fast and customer friendly as ING?
NJG: ING cuts both ways. It is the best interface, most reliable funds tranfer mechanism, and they have a longstanding commitment to maintaining this service. These are very compelling non-financial reasons to use the service. However, the flip side is that you are giving up 25-50 basis points. You decide if it’s worth it.
NJGal,
Citi has a great site. Vert easy to navigate. Don’t know about transfers. I can walk to a Citi ATM from work, my desposite is done there.
Plus we can withdraw $ from any Citi ATM.
Customer service is great, both online and phone.
CC
Prime example of POS Cape with 11k tax.
link
CC
Prime example of POS Cape. 875k with 11k tax.
link
CC
I am going to post this again here since it is a new thread.
Anyone familiar with Cliffside Park? Any thoughts on the Greenhouse Condo Complex. Friends, late 50’s moving out of house for easier living but need to be near NYC and Bergen County. It seems a nice bldg, pet friendly with pretty reasonable prices. Just wondering if one can add any comments. Thanks
#45 Richard, No they will not be giving them to us at .50 on the dollar, but they will ebgiving them to us at 25% off their bloated prices.
One last time.
1.Employment Strong- OK, the numbers say so. But again I ask what kind of employment, witness yet again NJ’s anemic job growth, lots of jobs for restaurant/health workers.
2. Strong wages- Where, wages just finally started rising in the 3rd Quarter of 04, after being flat for 5 years.
3. Core inflation moderating- BC just explaiend it to you, I cannot do better then that.
4. Cheap credit- yeah its still cheap, but not as cheap as it was. The NYT’s had a good peice on that in today’s business section take a look.
Finally this really does not have all that much to do with housing prices.
Prices rose due to cheap credit, lax lending standards, and toxic financing.
The lending standards are tightening, the toxic loans are going bye bye, and 30 yr FRM’s are rising.
If people did not avail themselves of 30 yr FRM’s when they had a 5 handle, why would they do it now? Well we know the answer to that.
And with 30 yr FRM’s at around 7%, can we still call them historic lows, at around historic lows, or getting back to historic norms?
The party is over for housing Richard, if this Spring market has not convinced you, what can I say.
#59 Chaotic; Hideous. I would be embarrased to live in that.
Love those 2nd story windows!
NJgal
Emigrantdirect. They will complete a transfer to your bricks and mortar bank in a day.
Can’t wait to get back to Jersey, getting tired of Buffalo, NY.
jb
#63 tbw Windows? You mean slits.
When i’m waiting forever for gas i just get out and do it myself.
I thought we could do that but the fact that every station is “full serve” no one does.
The irony of economic power moving to China, Vietnam, Russia etc. Former Communist countries that have maintained corrupt authoritarian rule but that have allowed connected “capitalists” do as they please. A union rabble rouser in one of those countries would have their @ss tossed in the clink for some good ol’ re-education. How do you compete with that? Globalization as a concept is a great idea if everybody has the same labor/environmental laws and freedoms. In the real world its a ploy for multinationals to play off and profit from the inequities present from country to country.
well, the house across the street from us (an almost identical cape) went up for sale this week. Asking price: $850,000.
With 20% down (a mere $170,000), you can pay a mortgage of $4410 per month (6.75% 30 yr fixed). This being CT, the taxes are reasonable at about $600 per month. Still, total monthly cost exceeds $5000.
Incidentally, we rent our house for $2550 per month. We should drop by the open house and tell everyone this.
Thanks all on the banks – will look into Emigrant and Citi. You do give up a lot of interest rate with ING, but they are the best – that’s really why I have two – one to build interest, one for use ASAP if needed (ING).
How I’m beating inflation.
Stopped buying produce last year because it’s pricey and substandard. Potatoes are about the least expensive thing I still buy. Built a square foot based kitchen garden last year, now it’s cranking out fresh strawberries, lettuce, and onion this month, next month tomatoes and corn. Saving myself a bundle without the contaminants. I’ve also started grape and blackberry vines.
Picked up some canning equipment from e-bay, so I save the goods for the winter. My kids originally thought I was nuts, but now enjoy the process of planting and growing, and understand some basic science and self-sufficiency. Hopefully people in this country will turn off the cell phones for a few hours and go back to basics. It’s a liberating experience to take yourself off the grid, even part way.
thatbigwindow Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 10:04 am
#41:
“…When I am waiting for my gas because the station only hired one attendant to pump gas
When the attendant breaks my gas door because he slammed it closed
When the attendant gets gas on my paint
Yes, as someone who values the condition of their car, views time as money, and feels that the government is too big as it is..yes, I want to be able to CHOOSE to pump my own gas.
Stop thinking about yourself, and let the market decide. Just like the smoking ban. Personal rights are quite important and they are being taken away by pointless legislation. I dont want the govt saving me from myself. Pumping gas is safe, which was the initial premise for that law..”
_________________________________________________
Commanderbobnj sez:
In all the years that I have been driving, I have yet to have ANY of my cars damaged by an ‘attendant’…….And as far as YOU wanting to “pump your own gas ” —a short drive to NYC OR a fun drive over our northern border to New York State and ‘presto’ –satisfaction !!!
I agree with you about “pointless legislation” in general, BUT– Come-on, imposing a smoking ban in public places was long overdue.-Besides,– It was always ILLEGAL to smoke, as long as I can remember in and around Gas Pumps
I do not think,’mr.thatbigwindow’, that you will get your ‘wish’ for self-service gas pumps in NJ anytime soon. The otherwise Legislationwhores don’t see any positive political ‘play’ in changing things …..New jersey voters are just TOO SPOILED !(IMHO -a ‘good-thing’)………..”Just let sleeping dogs lie..”
–Hey, Have A GREAT FATHER’S DAY EVERYONE !!!!
#71
I have tried year after year to have a garden but I have a tiny, very shady back yard and small, sunny front yard. I have finally given up trying to grow veggies in my front yard because it never works out. Some day I hope to have a yard with enough space and sun.
#51 – I would love to pump my own gas. I hate waiting for an attendant. However, the “market” can’t decide about transfats, since there are no real disclosure requirements. Diners have no idea what their fries are cooked with, so cannot make an educated choice to get the transfat-free fries. I assume you like knowing that someone is theoretically testing your salad to make sure it’s not contaminated with e coli, since you can’t know whether it is or not just from looking at it. Regulation has its place.
How about the obnoxious gas attendants that don’t even walk to your side of the car anymore. They tap on the passenger side window. Drives me crazy!
Wow, that is absolutely no house for $875K. Summit is a really nice town (I live in Chatham) but seriously folks, who in their right mind would buy that? I just bought a house for $250K less and it is bigger, nicer and the schools are better. I find Lois Schnieder Realtors to be crack smokers mostly.
Skep-tic 69,
I always like to illustrate with numbers, something the real estate industry would rather side step as it becomes a “burden” and takes away their ability to bilk unsuspecting victims. That’s how far the brainwashed masses have traveled. Can you imagine if everyones IQ could be raised a few points and intervention was available similar to that for junkies hooked on smack? Yes, a mere $170,000 (that’s ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY THOUSAND DOLLARS, FOLKS!!). Beautiful… and just a $680,000 mortgage. One might as well just pull the trigger, it’s quicker.
From the NYC Housing Bubble Blog.
New York City Housing Bubble – ‘The BIG Picture’
NJ Gal,
I highly recommend Emigrant Direct. They are very competitive with their rates (currently 5.05%) and if someone moves up they usually follow. I have a Wamu account for checking and savings (5%) that I use for day to day, but the Emigrant direct is perfect for moving liquid savings over to. They initiate a transfer to any ACH linked account in a day or two. I use Wamu b/c it is close to our new house. I used to use Citibank and I know their rates stink but as a general purpose free checking account they can’t be beat. They have ATMs almost everywhere and they have overdraw protection for a reasonable rate.
78 – thanks for the link jb. i knew it, prices do go down in brooklyn. i might be tempted to pass that along to my friend looking to buy there (of course, she’s not looking in williamsburg, but that’s hardly the point).
Bernanke study sounds like a delay tact. to touch rates. so just more wait & see by the hawks & let market do it’s thing?
JB [78],
Mogambo Guru quoted on the Big Picture. Start posting him on this site. I’m sure the core[cpi] crowd would enjoy.
Mike NJ,
Regarding Summit / Chatham area. I rent in the area.I would like to buy eventually.
Can you share your experience on choosing which town to live. (area in general, school, quality of life, neighbors, commute…….)
I noticed you mention Chatham school is better than Summit. Care to explain.
When i buy, i probably would look in Summit, Chatham, New Providence, Short Hills, Madison and Berkeley Heights.
Thx,
CC
#27, great post BCBob.
Whether we like/accept it or not, there is a gradual power shift taking place from the West to the East, being led by the wealth transfer taking place.
The deficit is chipping away at the US geo-politically. Until politicians realize they cannot no longer dictate terms to their ‘new’ bankers (read Chinese), there will be no change to the inevitable demise of US influence overseas. And a mighty military won’t help, unless the printing press is set free to fund it for infinity.
As my ex-boss succinctly put it “Until the $2 billion a day Coke trip does not stop, repurcussions are inevitable.”
In above post, “cannot no longer ” should be can no longer
dream [84],
Some see it and react accordingly. Others see it but don’t want to believe it. The majority? Blinded/Clueless.
NJGal:
Applebank of New York has an online-only savings account that yields 5.25%. I’ve been in it for over a year and the experience has been pretty good. They are very local so you might receive an email from them containing email addresses of other account holders, but when you call them, you never get put on hold, speak to a person in Asia or have to deal with any other kind of clueless person. Their maximum balance transfer is $25,000 compared to Chase who maxes out at $10,000. My only pet peeve is that they only allow a maximum of 5 ACH transactions per month. Of course if you go over that amount and call them, they’ll refund the $20 fee with ease ;)
Their interface isn’t as polished as ING, but it’s nice to always get someone on the phone who seems interested in pleasing the customer. I think they have old-school magnetic tape answering machines as well! ;)
1. If you get out and do it yourself most gas pumpers will not intervene since they have 4-6 other people waiting and getting annoyed.
Nobody fills my bike but me, which BTW gets 70MPG.
2. Food prices are signifigantly higher especially at the wholesale level. Every Memorial day and 4th of July the big supermarkets sell london broil ( top round ) for less than cost. At like 1.70-2.00 a pound. Bring the kids and come back 2-3 times when you are going home from work. Use the freezer, that is great stew meat and hamburger ( the ground round? )
3. I am glad to hear from all of you except the hairy troll that Fort Lee and Cliffside Park prices are nuts, because remeber if everyone else is insane and you are sane, then maybe your the crazy one.
NJGal, I also recommend Emigrant Direct. I also have Amboy Direct and they are awful to use. I use the Emigrant for moving money and been very happy.
Rachel
#88 RPAT: If I am the crazy one, than crazy I will stay;I like it here.
thatbigwindow: 1) The answer to self-serve gas in NJ is to find a local station where you can get to know the owner and pump your own once he realizes you know what you’re doing. I have a guy in town who works on my car and he knows that when I was in my 20’s, I worked weekends pumping gas. He lets me pump my own. 2) The idea of banning microwave popcorn isn’t as stupid as it sounds. I work in a research facility, and not a month goes by that someone doesn’t key in “30:00” instead of “3:00” on a microwave when putting in the popcorn, causing the fire alarms to go off, the building to be evacuated, and the fire department to come out. I think the FD charges us every time they have to come out and INVESTIGATE THE ENTIRE BUILDING to make sure there’s no real fire. Yes, it’s a case of the a**holes ruining it for everyone, but the lost productivity and waste of time of local taxpayer-funded resources is very real.
NJGal: I have HSBC and while it is a pain in the ass to use (especially that 20-digit “customer ID”), I use it only for my “don’t touch except for emergencies” savings; I keep a small nest egg in a local bank that I can draw from if I need it. I view the HSBC account as akin to a CD that doesn’t require a penalty for early withdrawal. :)
watch core prices the rest is too volatile.
Core CPI is a joke. People will gladly ignore this if it fits with their desired outcome for the economy, but it doesn’t change the fact the Core CPI is a poor measure of inflation.
Breaking it down:
32% of Core CPI is “owner equivalent rent”. Because we have an oversupply of vacant houses and more of these vacant homes are returning to the rental market, this statistic has been moderating. This is a result of an excess of inventory that resulted from a unchecked asset price inflation, that was not picked up in the CPI numbers.
25% of Core CPI is made up of vehicles, apparel, recreational good (TV’s etc) and home furnishings. Much of this stuff is imported from China and to a lesser extent Japan (even American cars are from Mexico), who manipulate their in order to keep their products cheap to the American consumer. We devalue our currency, they follow suit.
If you look at the true “American Made” & provided components of Core CPI, education and health care, they are the higher end of the inflation spectrum.
Of course when you remove fuel costs, you are also taking away the one component that both has scarcity and is liquidly traded in an international market. Fuel costs are probably one of the better indicators of the purchasing power of the American dollar.
Renting [92],
Our colleagues across the pond [Brits] know that cpi is a joke. They measure 2 #’s; cpi and rpi[retail price index]. Their cpi indicates inflation similar to ours. Their rpi [more widely watched], indicates a 5.5-6.5% rate.
I vote to change our calculations and come out with an rpi. To smooth volatility, it can be measured in a 90 or 180 day moving average. I know our seniors would love that. I can’t believe that they are not flooding marching in DC. I guess they need the head of the teacher’s union to represent them.
“The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:”
“FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, service meals and snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners’ equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men’s shirts and sweaters, women’s dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians’ services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).”
What’s falling in prices besides flat screens and computer related items?
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_6
so why does the Fed continue to “prefer” an inflation gauge that is misleading? do they have an agenda, or are they just wrong?
“3b Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 10:27 am
#63 tbw Windows? You mean slits.
”
lol
From MarketWatch:
‘Conundrum’ remains despite rate spike, Yellen says
The sharp jump in interest rates in recent weeks hasn’t gone far enough to clear up what former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan coined as “the bond rate conundrum,” says Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“Of course, long-term rates have risen in recent weeks, but not by nearly enough to resolve” Greenspan’s conundrum, Yellen said Friday in brief remarks on the global economic outlook at Brandeis University.
Greenspan was referring to the peculiar behavior of long-term interest rates, which barely budged throughout the Fed’s long process of steadily raising short-term rates, from 1.25% to 5.25%, during a two-year interval ended in 2006.
Yellen’s comments suggest that she isn’t worried that the rising rates will derail the economy as homeowners and businesses are forced to pay higher credit costs.
What’s falling in prices besides flat screens and computer related items?
That’s the problem. That’s why there is such a big disconnect between official inflation and the view of inflation on Main Street.
The “necessary” things like food, fuel, housing (to buy), medical care and education are all going up.
Flat screen TV prices and consumer goods produced in China (toasters, salad shooters, George Formal grills etc.) may be going down, but these are secondary items that don’t make up a big chunk of my budget anyway.
skeptic[94],
SS increases are tied to the index. Where would the 10 year be trading if we were reporting a retail price index? Other agenda’s? We would have to start another blog for this.
ChaoticChild
I would be happy to share my experiences of the area. I grew up in Long Island and heard many bad things about NJ growing up. I can honestly say that I absolutely LOVE Chatham and the area. The surrounding areas are beautiful and I do feel that you can do no wrong with the list of towns you presented. Each is slightly different but all are great places to live and raise kids. We chose Chatham Borough because it had the best small town feel coupled with the good schools and access to NYC. In 2005 Chatham was on the “Top 10 places to live in America” list and now I know why after living there for 8 months. We love the location relative to what NJ has to offer. What really makes the place (any place for that matter) special is the people that live there. I find we have a lot in common with the people in town and I would use that as your absolute gauge when picking towns. I am a Long Islander and my wife is a mid westerner. Our next door neighbors are exactly the same as are our neighbors a few houses down. These are the people that you will interact with every day when you have kids that run up and down the block playing. In my opinion it can make or break a home purchase. I realize this entry is getting long so if you want just email me at boomer98 AT gmail.com and I would be happy to fill you in about the school system comparisons and other stuff. Suffice to say the Chatham school system is small but very personal and everyone we have spoken to (people who have worked/lived in Summit/Madison school systems, etc) have rated it the best. Remember that we are talking about small differences here and personal opinions but like I said, you can do no wrong. Email me if you want more info.
Mike
BC–
Maybe I’m too trusting but I have a hard time believing that you could coordinate that many people to lie about something like inflation. It’s not like the launch code for ICBMs– don’t you think someone would leak to the media at some point?
Mike NJ [99],
I have a few good friends in the borough and the township. You sound like a cc of them. They say when someone sells, they are only moving to another house within the town. Been to the pool, forget the name, a number of times. Top notch town/people. Is the Little Luncheonette still in business? I know the former owner. He cashed out and moved to the midwest.
skeptic,
I did not say they were lying. I question the manner in which the entire index, and what should be measured, is calculated.
If you don’t drive, eat, consume energy, see a doctor, pay tuition, health insurance, tolls, car insurance, etc.., then you are fine. Otherwise, how does that index [core] reflect the true cost of goods and services?
It’s a total mirage.
I agree the index seems unrealistic. Just doesn’t make sense to me why an agency filled with very bright and no doubt very upstanding people would continue to rely on such a thing
Oh so many posts to comment on today!
Inflationn! I have ( look back ) been complaining/commenting about the percentage of food increases for at least 6 months now. I am an online shopper, because I buy the same things all the time, my lists, and emails show me the difference in prices in black and white, not just a vague feeling that you paid less for this item last week, and the percentege is not 3-6% it is 15-20%! I just complained to my son’s friends mother ( I got them both lunch today from KFC) The chicken strips, which had been .89 each were today $1.19 each! I was there less than 2 weeks ago. I am paying 3.75 per gallon of milk at the corner deli ( was 3.25) the list goes on and on.
Gas! : I don’t want to pump my own gas- Period -end of story – that’s the one of the only things keeping me in this godforsaked state!
Popcorn: I could definitly see a company banning microwave popcorn, 1st there’s the smell that permeates 2nd when it burns -it is a very choking smoke, I know this because I love burnt microwave popcorn I do it on purpose I don’t like it totally black but close and boy does it smoke up the house ! (-:
KL
skeptic,
One other point. Say you buy a computer that cost $500. I buy one, a faster processor, next month, mine costs $600. My computer is 20% faster than yours. Although I paid 20% more than you, the govt calculates that prices actually dropped 20%. CPI will indicate this decline. In theory, I am 20% more efficient than you.
BC Bob,
Yes, I still see it on Main Street and it seems to be doing well as I always see people in it.
When my wife first suggested we move from the city to NJ I almost lost my lunch. She kept bringing it up (sound familiar?) and we kept visiting the area to look at homes at the same time we were looking in LI. Then one day it clicked and I realized what she was talking about. We moved in October and have never looked back. Even my parents are thinking of moving in from LI as they really love it as well. I just miss being 20 minutes from the beach, Oh well.
Skeptic [103]
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/inflation_error.html
Mike NJ,
Thank you for the Chatham info.
Thx,
CC
>>Wow, that is absolutely no house for $875K. Summit is a really nice town (I live in Chatham) but seriously folks, who in their right mind would buy that?
Chatham is still no Summit but I agree I don’t think anyone frequenting this board would see enough difference to spend the extra dough.
Well, I guess Rabner is the “Wrong Color” but as our leftist politicians say “he lacks diversity” – only on NJ (or californis) BTW, check out http://www.jerseylegalforums.com
#84 disagree but the power shift from west to east is happening far slower than people seem to think.
what town you live in is completely dependent on your own needs and wants. what if you grew up in an urban setting and wanted a diverse population, sidewalks and a thriving downtown? that wouldn’t be chatham. all depends so when asking what town is better be more specific on your top desires.
look at them there bond yields dropping some more. i hope some of you at least listened and made some money off of the overshoot. i know i did.
#111 Really Richard; Just look at how mych the landsacpe has changed over the last 20 years, forget about that over the last 5 years.
But Richard says its slower, and therfore it must be true.
It seems that the people in NJ who are against having a choice at the pump only have one argument: They just don’t want to do it themselves.
I agree the index seems unrealistic. Just doesn’t make sense to me why an agency filled with very bright and no doubt very upstanding people would continue to rely on such a thing
First, don’t forget, agencies are a branch of the executive and their leadership serves at the pleasure of the President.
It’s Politics, plain & simple. No conspiracy or anything, its just that fudging the number is politically expedient. Politicians don’t want high inflation on their watch and consumers don’t want it either. The answer? Come up with a statistic that gives you the answer that you’re looking for. Food and energy causing a problem? No problem! Just remove the offending components from the basket and call it “Core Inflation”.
People want access to cheap credit, but at the same time want to borrow dollars today and repay them with devalued dollars later. Stealth inflation allows the party to continue.
ChaoticChild, that’s not a POS Cape, that’s an “Inviting Colonial POS Cape.”
3b having a conversation with you is like arguing with a mormon.
It seems that the people in NJ who are against having a choice at the pump only have one argument: They just don’t want to do it themselves.
I have no desire to pump my own gas. What would be the benefit to doing so?
One of the few bright spots to living in NJ is comparatively cheap gas & 100% full service. I like it that way.
I promise you, offering a choice will not lower prices. It will just be an excuse to charge extra for full service.
Unrealtor,
You are in the business. Please tell me how could a property be colonial and cape????
A woman can’t be pregnant and not pregnant at the same time???
CC
I have a colonial style cape, or a cape style colonial. essentially, there is no full second story – ours is rear dormered, so rooms at the front of the house have a slightly slanted ceiling – this makes it a cape. all the bedrooms are upstairs, this makes it a colonial.
btw, it was listed as a “center hall colonial” which made me laugh. it’s certainly not what you picture when you hear the phrase “center hall colonial.”
I am not looking for lower prices, I simply want the choice to be able to pump myself. The law was put on the books a long time ago when they thought that a highly trained technician should be pumping gas because it would be too dangerous for the common person to do it themselves. This is clearly not the case anymore. I have had gas doors broken on two separate vehicles I have owned because the reckless attendant slammed them shut. Those flimsy doors are not meant to be slammed. Even today, as I filled up at lunch, I didn’t even have my vehicle stopped completely at the pump and the attendant is knocking on my gas door signaling me to open it. Get your hands off of my car!! – mad!
Question for the group: If I wanted to learn about purchasing a property at an auction, would it be beneficial to attend an auction or “sheriff’s sale” as an observer—to see how the process works? Or would that be an unproductive use of time?
Thanks.
RoadTripBoy,
I would attend several of them to get a feel for what’s going on. There’s no substitute for experience.
Renting [116],
This goes back to Arthur Burns, in the 70’s.
When oil prices surged, Burns suggested to strip out energy from the cpi to get a less distorted measure. When food prices then rose sharply, they stripped those out too, followed by housing and a variety of other items. Eventually, a large part of the headline CPI basket was excluded because it was, in their view, temporary. As a result, the Fed failed to spot inflation rearing its ugly head. The result? 14% inflation in the late 70’s.
With current worldwide growth along with geopolitical tensions, does anybody really think that energy prices are a temporary blip? Also, our m3 is expanding at a rate of approx 10-12%, in conjunction with falling GDP. How can we create money at 15-20 x’s faster than GDP? Where is this excess money supply going? Doesn’t monetary and asset inflation count?
This video explains why New Jerseyans don’t get to pump their own gas.
http://www.comedycentral.com/sitewide/media_player/play.jhtml?itemId=70225
#118 Richard; Hey the Mormons are the welathiest religious denomination in the USA today. Used to work with quite a few them in a prior life.
Arguing? There is no arguing here Richard, you whole premise is that all is well, and therfore that means that housing is well,and as such you did not over pay when you bought.
This not an arguemment, that is a belief like the Mormons, and nothing I say will change it.
Whose criticizing the Mormons? What does religion, sex, race have to do with anything on this board?
BC Bob, Richard apparently has a problem with people of faith.
Yesterday he was raving about incest and Christians, and today he’s on to Mormons.
I would agree that you need to understand your wants and desires before buying. If a city atmosphere is paramount then I would suggest living in the city or Hoboken. You are correct, Chatham is no Summit. Chatham does have a higher household income (10%+) than Summit. This is due, I am sure, to the income disparity that Summit has. Chatham has much less of this, hence my preference for it.
Summit does have the Magic Fountain Ice Cream Parlor, for that reason alone though I may have to give it the nod.
This is a real estate blog, and I did’nt submit the most important comment, I have had 2 buyer in as many days ( yesterday & today) Back out. One much further in than the other – but without out skin in the game.. interesting how this will be handled as seller has made costly moves based on his sale..
KL
Can anyone attempt to explain #110?
–“leftist politicians”
–off-topic link
–vague racial comments
Do you have the right forum?
“Please tell me how could a property be colonial and cape?”
For realtors, everything is a “colonial” since colonials are generally more desirable.
In realtor-speak, we now have:
“Colonial Split” – Split level with shutters on the windows.
“Colonial Cape” – POS cape.
“Contemporary Colonial” – Contemporary.
“Tudor Colonial” – Tudor.
“Colonial” – Colonial.
Thatbig:
Smoking is not a right, despite your intimating that it is in post # 41. Pumping your own gas? Not a right. Using a cellphone while riding a bike? Dangerous for reasons even you can grasp–and isn’t that the purpose of government: To protect and safeguard the common good?
Further to the point: I don’t want some half-wit biking on the road [as is the law] one handed while he or she is barking into their electronic teat. They might veer in front of me, and I might hit him or her and scratch the finish on my auto–the same auto that, by the way, has NEVER been damaged by a New Jersey service station attendant. I get my gas from the same guy nine times out of ten. We’re very cordial to one another; we treat each other with respect and courtesy, and he treats my car with care. (Please tell me you aren’t one of those guys who’s a total dick to gas station attendants, dry cleaners, and waiters?)
Transfats? Assuming that we have a choice not to eat them, doesn’t it so follow that we should be informed that they’re in our food? Who’s gonna regulate that? The sainted ghost of Ronnie Reagan?
Jersey just isn’t for you. Too many rules and regulations. You really should do the free market thing, Thatbig, and vote with your feet: Move to a state that caters to your inane conception of freedom. Till then, please shut up. You are the living embodiment of what John K. Galbraith had in mind when he wrote, “The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
#134 Unrealtor You forgot Side Hall Colonial.
KL,
Need.. more.. details..
But I understand if you can not.
jb
Reason #344 to not allow motorists to pump their own gas in NJ:
http://www.teddybearsbytheseashor.com/pump-gas-mug.html
I pumped my own gas when I lived in California and with an average temp of 68 degrees, I had no complaints. When its 20 degrees in NJ and feels like 2 below zero, I sure do love having an attendant pump the gas for me and wouldn’t want to give it up for anything.
I am glad poster # 135 cleared up what is our right and what is not our right. It is amazing that people like that exist.
#138 Sorry, but “being too cold” isnt a reason that warrants having a law stating that you can’t pump your own gas
#132
Did either of the buyers have a down payment in escrow above 5%?
Walking away from anything more than my original $1000 deposit would have been painful. Once I had the deposit in escrow I knew I was in it till the end.
“Yesterday he was raving about incest and Christians, and today he’s on to Mormons.”
Un [130],
That’s deplorable. How could anybody, even with just a half of a conscious, stoop this low.
#140 window,
I guess I am pro-choice when it comes to the self-serve debate. I have no problem allowing a choice between full serve or self serve. I would want to maintain the choice however. And I don’t think the price should be different. A disabled person, parent with infant in a car seat, etc. should have to pay more? I don’t think so.
My issue with most who make the self serve argument is that it will save the consumer money which isn’t true (not in the long run, prices would drop a few pennies for a few months and then increase again with the bump baked into refinery shortages or some other type of excuse). Legislators should just be honest about why they want to enact such a law. The (safety) reasons for the original law are outdated. Self serve gives consumers more flexibility in how they get their gas. End of story.
…and I have seen my share of idiots who lit up while pumping, didn’t know how to work the hold open latch, left their car running while pumping, etc. So there will be added danger in allowing self serve but I would be willing to risk it to make you happy.
#107
great link, thanks. so to belabor a point that is probably fairly obvious to many people here, the basic problem with CPI/Core CPI is that is measures inflation based on a basket of goods that is no longer very relevant.
“Self serve gives consumers more flexibility in how they get their gas. End of story.”
Well Said! :)
“Donald or anyone familiar with Cliffside Park. Any thoughts on the Greenhouse Condo Complex. Friends, late 50’s moving out of house for easier living but need to be near NYC and Bergen County. It seems a nice bldg, pet friendly with pretty reasonable prices. Just wondering if one can add any comments. Thanks”
I’m not that crazy about the location of it. I would go with either The Briarcliff or Winston Towers instead. They are in better locations since they are right along the cliffs and have great NYC views.
“but without out skin in the game”
This has always bothered me about real estate. That you can take a guy’s house off the market for perhaps 2 weeks after putting only $1000 at risk. And you can get that back if you try even a little bit.
And thanks, #135, for giving vent to the irrationality that is responsible for so many asinine laws and ordinances in NJ/NY. The reason we are treated like wards of the state rather than free adults. Hint: treat people as though they are children and that is how they will behave.
Richard Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
“look at them there bond yields dropping some more. i hope some of you at least listened and made some money off of the overshoot. i know i did.”
Richard, I hope you don’t calculate your profits like the Beardstown Ladies.
I am glad poster # 135 cleared up what is our right and what is not our right. It is amazing that people like that exist.
Maybe I could go for a “same price policy…I like the full service law, not for any valid public policy reason except that I’m too lazy to pump my own gas. I don’t want to get outside in the cold, or the rain or spill gas on my work clothes.
I just feel that if we were given a choice, we would be charged a 10-15 cent premium for the “luxury” of having our gas pumped for us, which I wouldn’t be able to justify.
However, I am in complete agreement about #135.
isn’t that the purpose of government: To protect and safeguard the common good?
Those Who Sacrifice Liberty For Security Deserve Neither – Ben Franklin
isn’t that the purpose of government: To protect and safeguard the common good?
but where to draw the line? Is it really for the common good to prohibit me pumping my own gas. lol.
ok, I have absolutely no idea what anyone is talking about. I don’t see how it relates to real estate in the slightest way. Can we change the topic back to RE so that we can have our usual arguments? Thank you!
This is an interesting debate re: pumping your own gas. During the summer after my sophomore year of college (in Michigan) I worked in a truck stop, pumping gas. this was 1984. Back then people had a choice to go to self serve and pump their own gas at regular prices; or pay about 30 cents more per gallon and get full serve (we even washed their windshields with a squeegee and offered to check their oil). At that point, full-serve service was beginning to disappear and stations that did offer it charged more per gallon. Present day: full serve has disappeared from MI and gas isn’t any cheaper. In fact, in MI, gas always been more expensive then in NJ.
I was surprised to find that all gas stations are full serve and that fuel was cheaper than in MI when I moved to NJ in 1989. I appreciate having someone else deal with pumping my gas, especially when the weather is inclement.
In all my years of living here I’ve never experienced damage to my car from a gas station attendant, nor have I ever had to wait more than a few minutes to be serviced.
I say let gas stations remain full-serve.
Mike & Jim
Neither buyer had more than 5% it was a 100% and 97% loans, both buyers backed out due to monthly costs that had been laid out for them in the beginning. 100% buyer had recieved commitment.
re: burnt popcorn
let’s play a game called name that town
When a secretary in a certain town hall in Morris County burned some popcorn in the microwave, the buidling alarms went off. She called the fire department and told them not to send anyone, it was just some burnt popcorn. Well, the town’s known for a robust population of volunteer fireman, so what happens? The radio dispatcher sounds the town alarm (air raid sirens) to make sure everyone knows anyway, and the ladder company from up on the hill comes racing down to save the day, hitting a parked car while en route. The taxpayers of this fine community also pay for a ladder company located underneath town hall, where the burned popcorn occurred.
Name that town!
BC,
It was a typo.
# Richard Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
3b having a conversation with you is like arguing with a mormon.
classic!
PS, the “classic!” is my comment
Why typo?
I presume he meant “moron” but typed “mormon.”
Or at least I hope so …
I thought Richard had a nasty run-in with Donny Osmond at some name-dropping-worthy restaurant, and therefore the Mormon reference. But maybe you’re right. It wasn’t capitalized.
#156 scribe I am a born contrarian, and it has served me well, aint changing now.
And if that makes me a Mormon, or pagan or a druid, or any thing else then so be it.
I did the same this on polish vs. Polish on this blog once. Capitalization issues mess me up.
No he meant Mormon.
How could he possibly mean Mormon?
Richard,
Drop the second m …or capitalize the first?
You need a good editor.
Please submit all future rants to me for proofreading so we can all be clear on whether you’re insulting 3b, the Mormon, or 3b, the moron.
:)
SCS-9/Beta 21s has a reduced gauge thickness, in comparison with other metal matrix composites, due to a smaller diameter fiber. This reduced gauge thickness makes it an attractive candidate for the skin of hypersonic vehicles. Tensile testing of (0/90) sub 2s and (O/+ or -45/90) sub s laminates was performed at room temperature, 482 deg C, and 650 deg C. Both notched and unnotched specimens were tested. Notched specimens, open and filled hole, had a width-to-diameter ratio of six. Materials 7075-T6 and Mar-m-246 were used as pins in the filled hole tensile testing. Analytical work was completed to predict material properties, elastic and plastic stress concentration factors, residual stresses, and failure strengths. Damage was documented in the form of fiber-matrix debonding, matrix cracking, fiber failure, and plasticity…. SCS-9, Beta 21s, Open Hole, Filled Hole, Metal Matrix Composite, Notch, Static Tensile. So, to conclude…
Oh…. I’m sorry… am I on the wrong blog?
#164 Maybe he menas I am a Mormon Moron, or a Moron Morman,either way I am honored.
scribe,
Beats the hell out of me. Is it a moron or a Mormom? If he referenced Catholics and incest yesterday, I would imagine it was not a typo. I’m surprised the filter doesn’t capture his [Richard] garbage.
That’s odd, whenever I fill up in NJ (not that much cheaper than DE, to be honest, I assume NJ tacks 7% sales tax on top of its fuel taxes) on my bike they hand me the nozzle.
Of course, if they spilled fuel on my tank I would have to dismount and bludgeon them vigorously..
That’s moron or Mormon. Can’t type.
I just got asked a question on PMI. I believe it is tax deductible now for incomes under 100k. Is that correct?
rental or primary?
135 # sick of the view from thatbigwindow Says:
Will you only be happy when we are sealed in a container and protected by shock absorbing gell?
The safer life is the less it is worth living. Thank god I left NJ.
http://www.irs.gov/formspubs/article/0,,id=109876,00.html#mip_2007
Hypersonic housing?
NJ can’t switch to self serve b/c then it would lead to job loss & there goes the “employment is strong” theory about inflation.
Sorry this is off-topic, but maybe someone can tell me whether I’m being raped.
Just got some of the bills from my sons trip to the ER with a broken ulna (one of the forearm bones) after falling off the monkey bars at our local playground:
er visit: $400
radiology exam: $33
radiology diagnostic: $1299
semi-private pediatric: $4,350
pharmacy: $742
med/surg sterile $14
anesthesia other $788
recovery room: $463
iv solutions: $8
iv therapy: $338
med/surg other: $786
OR other: $2,540
ER general: $663
clsd lwr arm/hand repair $660
emergency procedures: $220
GRAND TOTAL: $13,304
I haven’t received the bill from the bone doc yet, that should be another couple of grand at least.
I appreciate what the ER and doctors do, but this seems a little steep for a broken bone, does it not?
Unfortunately, it doesn’t… I work in the medical field and I’m not saying that I think that the prices are reasonable, but that is the general cost that an ER visit can run. There is usually some room for negotiation with the hospitals if need be. My father had a biking accident and broke his femur about ten years ago when he was temporarily without insurance, and he was able to negotiate the price down quite a bit, as I remember.
Keep in mind that the insurance companies never accept the rates at face value and negotiate what they will pay as well. A lot of times when you go to the hospital you are paying for all those people who don’t pay – and the hospitals overcompensate by charging higher bills.
#175, ask for an ‘uninsured discount’, if possible. That’ll knock around 70% off the bill.
dreamtheaterr Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Richard Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Richard, I hope you don’t calculate your profits like the Beardstown Ladies.
Excellent!
Reech: Hindsight is 20-20, but I swear on my son’s diaper pail, if someone had asked me who on this website would bring up “Mormons” first, I really would have said you. Seriously. I swear it.
#170 Primary
#176
If you are insured, call the hospital and negotiate down your part of the bill. I was able to knock $1000 off of a $2000 bill, in a similar priced operation. All I did was call and ask, it was surprisingly easy. You can ask for payment options too…maybe they’ll give you an itnerest only option, lol!
Hope your kid heals quickly, and doesn’t get too itchy over the summer!
Back to the gas crisis. That’s another one I don’t understand. What’s with the turning off ignition when fueling nonsense? Didn’t they dispel almost every possible myth on about how difficult it is to blow up your car, be it cellphone static electricity or whatever? I always kept my car running when filling up because for some reason I became phobic that my car wouldn’t restart after the fill-up. Or maybe it was the notorious hot start issues that eventually reared their heads on on my ’83 Cutlass. And my ’76 Impala. And my dad’s ’72 LeMans. There was also a hot-start ignition module relay issue on the ’86 Olds Calais now that I think of it(not current rides mind you). Hasn’t so much been a problem on the ’96 Accord though.
simply classic
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070615/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_credit_card_limits_3;_ylt=AqlWJwllJ4v6KdNN00hMbcYE1vAI
>>Brisgone, a field operations manager for a telecommunications company, said he alternates between three different credit cards — two Visa and one MasterCard — when filling up the 32-gallon tank in his Ford F-150 pickup. “When I can go 400 miles a day, it inconveniences me if I need a full tank of gas and can’t get one,” Brisgone said.
hey schmuck, how about getting a more fuel efficient car?
>>“Yesterday he was raving about incest and Christians, and today he’s on to Mormons.”
hey look it’s mr pull out of context. that about sums you up bob.
>>Richard, I hope you don’t calculate your profits like the Beardstown Ladies.
i made some quick trades and pulled in about $40k. it’s fun to play. still saving for that down payment?
>>Reech: Hindsight is 20-20, but I swear on my son’s diaper pail, if someone had asked me who on this website would bring up “Mormons” first, I really would have said you. Seriously. I swear it.
obviously the analogy flew over everyone’s heads. what a surprise.
luddite (71)-
Let us know when you start buying cases of grenades and begin writing your manifesto.
BC (93)-
What? No PCE deflator?
please don’t blunder by missing the bottom!
RoadTrip (124)-
Total waste of time. That room will be full of pros and shills. As an individual investor, you must catch these homes in the pre-foreclosure stage.
What’s up with the huge jump in Hoboken listings? 40 new condos on the market just this week!!
180-3b the link was in 172
“saving for that down payment?”
Yes, I am. Any issues?
“i made some quick trades and pulled in about $40k.”
Richard,
….and you brag about this on a blog? What a dunce. If you had any clue on how to press the pedal/trade, you would have done much better than that. Too bad your crystal ball wasn’t working today. Minor Leagues.
1/2-1% a month, negative, that’s your #. Go back and pull up your 2006 posts agreeing with BOOYAAA. Spineless and clueless.
“please don’t blunder by missing the bottom!”
Honest,
Another market timer. We have seen more bottoms than the nurse at your local maternity ward. Give it up.
BC (194)-
Bet he left himself long the weekend, too.
Clot[188],
You’re right. I was too inflationized today.
Clot [194],
He wouldn’t know long even if Howie slammed his *ss into the dirt. Dirt?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arhazjYdU1po&refer=home
China Sells Treasuries, Signaling Diversification
please don’t blunder by missing the bottom!
Don’t bet your bottom on the bottom.
Back to online savings accounts…has anyone tried GMACdirect? They had sent me some literature, but I never moved funds there.
JM
Clot/Chi,
Is Oliver Perez the next coming of Sandy Koufax?
OUCH. I still bet Rickey would have stolen more bases than Reyes tonight.
Clot,
By the way, you made more $ with the Spurs, the last two games, than Richard made today.
mets win. another $1k via a friendly bet. i’m on a roll lately but as all rolls go the worm eventually turns.
bear [199].
Also, slowly moving out of 10’s into t-bills.
Richard,
What does your crystal ball indicate, regarding that?
“i’m on a roll lately but as all rolls go the worm eventually turns.”
…Yes, a perfect example is RE. You presented that on a silver platter. LOL!
Richard/Donald/Honest Realtor,
Trifecta.
Can you please change your logon to #’s. If we played those #’s at the track, we would be a winner. Gotta come in sometime.
BC Bob Says:
June 15th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Clot/Chi,Is Oliver Perez the next coming of Sandy Koufax?
Bost: Perez pitched like crap – the Yanks bailed him out [e.g., Cano popping out on a 3-1 on a pitch at his eyes]. ARod and Cairo were this close to taking him deep.
Don’t get me wrong – the Metsies were desperate, but other than Reyes busting out and Wagner being lights out, Beltran and Delgado are perma–ucked.
Delgado looks worse that Cliffy last year….that’s quite a trick
WSJ??
A ‘Subprime’ Fund Is on the Brink
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=3223&tid=77939&mid=77939&tof=1&frt=2#77939
Concerned that an internal hedge fund at Bear Stearns Cos. wouldn’t be able to meet a margin call, Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the fund’s biggest lenders, seized $400 million of its assets and is preparing to auction them off.
The auction, in the coming week, could trigger the fund’s dissolution — the second blowup in recent months of a hedge fund that made dicey bets on the market for risky home loans, known as subprime mortgages.
“Bost: Perez pitched like crap”
Chi,
You’d take an egg everytime he pitched. Where was Jeffrey Maier in left field tonight?
bear [209],
You gotta love it. Bear Stearns gets a margin call. Pay up or liquidate. You may hate your margin clerk today. However, they may save your hide tomorrow. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in Cioffi’s office the past month or so.
Sorry this is off-topic, but maybe someone can tell me whether I’m being raped.
Yes. You are getting shafted.
Hospitals can only charge their negotiated rates with the insurance companies, which is barely enough to get by (at least that’s what they say). They make up for it by charging uninsured patients exorbitant amounts of money.
In fact, I read somewhere that NJ has the highest uninsured profit markup in the country.
I don’t know what you can do about it. My wife’s brother just went through the same thing. They basically told him too bad, pay the bill or we’ll come after you.
#87, Stu:
Thanks for the tip on Apple Bank of NY. See the attachment showing that the bank also has a 5 star finacial rating.
This rate will help my savings grow even faster as I await to re enter the RE market – 5 years???
Opps…
Here’s the link to Apple’s rating.
http://www.bauerfinancial.com/btc_ratings.asp
New Jersey home valuation 14-34% over fair value!!!
http://www.nationalcity.com/content/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/documents/1Q2007report.pdf
Atlantic City, NJ – 57%
Edison, NJ – 25%
Newark, NJ – 21%
Camden, NJ – 19%
Allentown, PA-NJ, 19%
New York-White Plains, NY-NJ – 15.7%
i made some quick trades and pulled in about $40k. it’s fun to play. still saving for that down payment?
Care to detail your trade?
jb
RentinginNJ Says:
June 16th, 2007 at 1:40 am
Hospitals can only charge their negotiated rates with the insurance companies, which is barely enough to get by (at least that’s what they say). They make up for it by charging uninsured patients exorbitant amounts of money.
In fact, I read somewhere that NJ has the highest uninsured profit markup in the country.
I don’t know what you can do about it. My wife’s brother just went through the same thing. They basically told him too bad, pay the bill or we’ll come after you.
Rent: what you can do is make sure that you have at least some kind of failsafe coverage. Even if you take coverage with a very high deductible, you get the benefit of negotiated rates. It is the basic underpinnings of the HSAs [Healthcare Savings Accounts].
Not NJ but another bubble area.
Cooling housing sector takes toll on employment
The unemployment rate edges up. The construction and financial services sectors remain weak.
By Lisa Girion, Times Staff Writer
June 16, 2007
What the housing boom giveth, the bust taketh away.
The slump in California’s once-effervescent real estate market is taking its toll on jobs, a state report released Friday showed.
Mounting losses in construction and financial services — the two sectors most dependent on home building and sales — contributed to the second increase in the state’s unemployment rate in two months.
The rate rose to 5.2% in May from 5.1% in April, the California Employment Development Division said.
By comparison, the rate in May 2006 was 4.9%.
The uptick further widened the gap between the state and national jobless rates, the latter of which held steady in May at 4.5%.
The divergence illustrates the relatively large role real estate has played in California’s economy in recent years. Superheated housing markets from the San Francisco Bay to Beverly Hills pushed prices up faster and higher in the state than almost anywhere else in the country, putting the shine on the Golden State’s recovery from the last recession.
“Housing was a really big part of our economy,” said Howard Roth, chief economist at the state Department of Finance. “Housing carried us for quite a while there, and it even made the recession milder. Some years housing accounting for 40% of the growth in jobs.” . . .
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs16jun16,0,41432.story?coll=la-tot-business&track=ntothtml
BC (203)-
I just wish the Finals were a best 5 out of 9 format. I’d be going back to the well again (and the next game in Cle would probably be pick ’em again). Cavs couldn’t beat the Spurs even if they played on the moon with pogo sticks.
No, Perez is not Koufax. You should see him when he can’t command his fastball. Ugly. But, he has great stuff, and is clearly a big-game, pressure pitcher. Way more +++ than -‘s with this guy.
Cost of Gas and Food Rose Sharply Last Month
By JEREMY W. PETERS
Published: June 16, 2007
Americans felt the pinch of higher gas prices and eroding wages last month, even as an important gauge of inflation drifted lower, government figures showed yesterday.
Over all, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.7 percent in May, the Labor Department reported. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was up just 0.1 percent, a welcome development that encourages the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady.
The news on the core rate, which has been inching steadily downward, cheered investors, who continued a stock rally that started midweek.
But for consumers, the news was hardly reassuring. Prices for staple household purchases like gasoline and food rose to even higher levels last month, effectively causing most Americans to take a pay cut. After taking inflation into account, the average weekly earnings for workers in nonmanagement jobs — some 80 percent of the work force — fell for the second consecutive month in May. . .
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/16/business/16econ.html?th&emc=th
ChiFi (209)-
Now it’s so bad with Delgado, whoever is ahead of him in the order (mostly, Beltran) never sees a pitch to hit.
All the mashers lose their swing fast. Has Delgado permanently lost his? God, he looks awful…even when he makes contact.
>7 States With Delinquency Problems
By David Lee Smith June 15, 2007
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/06/15/7-states-with-delinquency-problems.aspx
On Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its home foreclosure and mortgage delinquency statistics for the first quarter. Somewhat surprisingly, were it not for just three states — Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana — the rate of loans in foreclosure would have been below the nation’s average rate for the past decade.
According to the MBA, “While Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan account for 8.7% of the mortgage loans in the country, those three states account for 19.9% of the nation’s loans in foreclosure and 15.0% of all the foreclosures started in the country during the first quarter.” But without those states, which have been hit hard by reductions in manufacturing jobs, the percentage of loans in foreclosure would have been 1.12%, versus 1.19% during the past 10 years.
As a Texan, I find it particularly sobering to note that the foreclosures and foreclosure starts are above the rates in the Lone Star State in the 1980s during the oil bust. And the difficulties in the three Midwest states extend across all loan types.
The rate of total foreclosures initiated in the quarter was heavily influenced by jumps in four states: California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. Without those states, foreclosure starts would have declined nationwide. The MBA blames the high foreclosure starts in those states on the prevalence of speculators, who have been more likely than owner-occupants to walk away from properties whose values have fallen.
While I’m somewhat surprised by the mortgage bankers’ trends and statistics, and without taking any comfort in the difficulties of others, I believe that the breakdown demonstrates that a housing recovery is likely to be region by region. Major builders like Pulte (NYSE: PHM), Ryland (NYSE: RYL), Beazer (NYSE: BZH), KB Home (NYSE: KBH), and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) operate across wide swaths of the nation. Over time, they likely will be able to emerge slowly from their quicksand by intensifying their commitments of assets to stronger markets and reducing them in weaker ones.
Clearly, housing’s widespread overall recovery isn’t imminent, especially because the seven states mentioned above aren’t trivial if we’re to return to the health of the recent past. But at the same time, that very faint light out there may not actually be a train coming toward us.
!!! Faux News Debate on home prices !!!
u got to watch this one => http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/06/faux-news-debate-on-home-prices.html
Man, gotta love the one guy who says home prices are gonna soar 10% in the next year get punked by Schiff.
Just shows that there is still a lot of ignorance and denial out there.
Man, this stuff will be funny to re-look at in five years….
We had a disucssion here Thursday about using a mortgage as a way to get permanent tax-deductable leverage and using the extra cash for investments.
I had since exchanged some emails with my tax guy. He says interest on a mortgage up to $1.1mm is deductable regardless of AMT status. Interest on a refinanced mortgage works as well as long as the loan amount does not increase. So if you want to have the mortgage outstanding long term an I/O works better as the balance does not decrease. Comments welcome.
Major announcement!
As of today, my next-door neighbor’s house has been for sale for exactly one year with no price reductions at all. (IMHO, it’s overpriced by at least $75K.) A couple of weeks ago, I heard him moaning to his tenant (it’s a 2-family, and the owner doesn’t live there) about the lack of interest. Tenant told me later that the house is in such bad shape–and has basement mold issues–that most prospective buyers don’t even make it through the whole tour before leaving. But the owner has remained firm…and no, his name is not Donald.
I was planning on an buying for same price as I sold but after a year what I see for that price looks pretty bad. And what doesn’t look so bad has bidding wars. So I placed a contract on a home for 50,000 more than what I sold at.
My TH in VA and the house I am buying were both last purchased in Nov 01- Feb 02 timeframe.
Their purchase price was 91,000 more than mine.
So If prices drop do you think the worst would be the 02 price?
clotpoll #188
I appreciate your confidence my friendly little lamb. No manifesto needed for basic return to simpler times. Your position in the herd shall be duly noted.
“As of today, my next-door neighbor’s house has been for sale for exactly one year with no price reductions at all.”
That’s nothing. Come to Bergen County and I can show you homes that have been for sale for 3+ years. One of them is owned by a Mr. Murphy…. a Mr. Eddie Murphy.
I like Neighborhood Luddite’s comments regarding a return to simpler times. NJ is so damn materialistic (and it’s not a $300 jeans issue – but NJ seems to be obsessed with “keeping up with the Joneses” and working till we drop to just pay for more material goods.) It seems that the #1 cultural attraction in NJ is shopping malls and more shopping malls.
So I applaud slowing down, smelling the flowers, raising some vegetables, turning off the TV (how much TV do young kids need to watch?), and thinking about important basic core values.
A lot of greed has driven this real estate boom(bankers, $ obsessed flippers). Enough!
Jumping into the wayback machine here
Re Post 45:
Richard said:
overall unemployment is low, wages are strong, core inflation is moderating, still plenty of credit available to keep the party going, house prices have held up fairly well
What planet are you on? Unemployment numbers are basically bogus (look at the workforce participation rate);wages haven’t just stagnated their going down because all the jobs are at Target and Applebees, not IBM and or any of the imploding mortgage lenders; core inflation is a dodge so the traders can keep their heads in the sand; you’re half right about credit, though someone did find the spigot and they are wrenching it ever closer to closed; and the direction of housing prices is decidedly down because we’re still nowhere near affordability, or even sensible prices for anyone to go into business as a landlord because rents do not cover carrying costs.
On top of that Businessweek (sorry no link, read in the dead tree edition, but someone did post it last week) is reporting that GDP numbers are fraudulent (I’m shocked!)
The Fed may have been incapable of taking away the punchbowl, but sooner or later the punch runs out anyway, as the recent jump in long-term bonds shows.
Since I’ve mentioned bonds, may as well go back to your post 29.
I’m not the first guy to recognize that what bonds do on any given day doesn’t mean much, it’s the trend that counts and the trend is running pretty hard in the other direction.
I’ll tell you what, why don’t you try and get your hands on some of those 06 BBB’s on the ABX market, since they’ve fallen so low, I’m sure the only direction for them is up.
Keep drinking the government mouthpieces Kook-Aid.*
*Not a typo, saw it on anther thread and loved it.
My apologies for the long post above.
Re Post 227:
Shopping,
I was poking around real estate in Belmar last night, one because I believe it’s a very desirable place to live because of the beach and two because you can get a good sense of rent vs. own costs because there are many income properties in the town.
What I found was prices that were always in the neighborhood of 30% to 40% overvalued, i.e. when I found a house that was listed as an income property the price would have to fall about that much to make it a viable business move (that is at least cover mortgage, taxes, maintenance, etc.).
I don’t know what year that translates to or how long it will take to get there, but I have to believe that’s where we’re headed.
Considering that I know prices in Monmouth County have moderated a bit (asking prices are generally down btwn 5% and 10% from last summer) I was surprised to see we still we still have that far to go.
Re post 225:
Just Thought,
I’m glad to see you’re here and I want to clear some things up. I understand why I/0 mortgages can make sense for very high income/high net worth individuals, but in reality you have to be talking about less than 1% of the overall population.
If you’re fortunate enough to be there, god bless you, but anyone whose paycheck plays an important role in their financial stability is not in a position to make such a move. It requires liquid assets of well over three times the value of the home, and there just aren’t many people in that situation.
Sorry, Justbought, not just thought, man these drugs are kicking my butt.
Re post 223:
HouseofCards,
I always love the “without” construction. It’s a great way to put a positive spin on any situation.
Without the cheese and pepperoni, pizza has barely any calories and almost no fat.
You don’t get to subtract the worst performers to make the overall number look better when you’re talking about any situation in it’s entirety, it’s just a false way of looking at the picture.
I would note, btw, that Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan weren’t exactly big participants in the bubble according to what I was reading at the time, so the problems we face aren’t limited to “bubble areas” alone.
Also, while some parts of the country may recover faster than others, the builders better hope it’s the high margin communities that come back first, because it there are some baseline construction costs that simply cannot be avoided, and the market can be hot as pistol in North Dakota, but it won’t mean as much as a lukewarm market in Massachusetts.
Re Post 216:
NJREBear
thanks for that link, National City’s Housing Market report is one of my favorites because it’s got a relatively long life and has been pretty accurate historically.
If you look at the report you can see we were pretty close to the “historic average” back in 2003 and things weren’t too far out of hand in 2004.
If you went back to older reports you would see that the Edison area, and probably Newark too, were considered close to 20% below their historic averages in 1999 so the move up even through 2004 shouldn’t have been that surprising (though I thought at the time it was, I was wrong.). It was 05 and 06 where things went nuts and as the pendulum swings back it will be the Donald’s of the world who will indeed be the bagholders on this mess.
Booyaa
For anyone interested, National City has a great interactive map which shows their estimate of median house value and the actual price over the periods for which they have data.
Here is the link:
http://tinyurl.com/yj5a4d
BTW, in my post thanking the bear I wrote average. I should have written median. I’m not having a great day here.
FYI.
Safari Beta 3 kicks butt.
http://www.apple.com/safari/download/
jb
JB
Safari is the tip of the iceberg. Once you buy a MAC you will never go back. Windows is dying a slow painfull death.
Question: Buying a 400k house in NNJ. Do you think it makes more sense to:
* put down 30% and get a 15 year mortgage
or
* put down 20% and get a 30 year mortgage
It seems like there may be advantages to more down and a shorter mortgage … but just curious as to whether or not anyone has tried this and if it makes sense.
JPMorgan Chase…2006 profits, $14 billion…getting a subsidy for its new downtown building of more than $200 million…or more than $25 from every man, woman, and child in New York City
http://www.nysun.com/article/56645
Ludd (228)-
Hey, I grow a garden too! Just giving you the treatment, that’s all.
Lindsey (235)-
Thank goodness you haven’t built up a tolerance yet.
Clot,
New meds, the doc’s are breaking out the big guns.
Bound (241)-
I’m not an advocate at all of 15-yr mortgages. You can accomplish the same ends (faster amortization, less interest paid) if you double up on payments or make extra principal payments on your own time, as you see fit.
With a 15-yr, you’re locked into a big number every 30 days. If you have an injury, job loss, etc, things can get pretty squirrely…and there’s no way out.
I’d also advise against bi-weekly payment plans, which are great for the lender and a shaftarola for the borrower. There are just easier ways out there to achieve forced savings.
Median usual weekly earnings
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?le
Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
http://tinyurl.com/28h5ku
The chart below is that of the Consumer Price Index, annualized five-month(number of months needed for year-to-date) rate.
With the exception of two months in 2005, the CPI is rising at the fastest 5-month rate for this decade.
http://tinyurl.com/24kxg8
Retail Sales 3-month moving
average year-over-year percent change.
http://tinyurl.com/yrqpjg
Lindsey (245)
AKA “the good stuff”.
Vikes, Perc’s? Dilaudid?
# 176
Hi Prof.
Please do not confuse the ER docs costs with the hospital and ancillary (radiology, pharmacy, peds. etc.)
An ER doc would likely make $400-500 on that visit (if at all…)
Did he go to the OR to have it fixed? Did the Ortho reduce the fracture (break) in the ER with conscious sedation?
Feel free to email me via jb – I would be happy to enlighten you about what REALLY occurs.
Though off topic (and my apologies if this appears as advertising.
SiCKO – the movie premiers June 29th.
It is a NON partisan movie that should give you yet another clue as to how our healthcare system has been hijacked to make a few folks shamefully wealthy while raping and pillaging the health of our citizens.
Never did the word “sheeple” ever seem to fit so well. Few people question their insurance carriers when that carrier denies benefits. Those who do question and attempt to fight back are ground down over time with “lost” paperwork, policies written in “doublespeak” and deliberate roadblocks thrown in their path. The REAL cost of fighting back – emotional cost, time consumption, fear of being sent to collections all are stacked in the favor of these so-called “Health Insurers.”
In some cases you might just call them “Death Insurers.”
I could go on and on but I’m a simmering kettle already.
sl
If you are uninsured:
1) Liz Pulliam Weston has an article that details how to survive being uninsured.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHealth/AsurvivalGuideForTheUninsured.aspx
2) Call the hospital and request a DETAILED copy of the bill. Check to see that you aren’t being charged for things you didn’t receive.
3) If he was treated in the ER and released you shouldn’t be generating a Peds SemiPrivate charge (an inpatient bed charge.) Verify the physician’s actual orders written against the bill for discrepancies.
4) Most ERs are run by groups – My group staffs nearly 2 dozen ERs in NJ and NY. Review the actual ER doc bill, verify what was done and call the billing company to discuss it. Ditto the radiology bill — make sure you weren’t charged for more than the xrays that were needed — ie: tech shot extra views because ones taken were missing all the arm and wrist bones — sometimes they bill for these anyway hoping to capture charges.
Hope this helps.
Apologies for OT and length.
sl
And finally.
Forbes magazine reports that William W. McGuire, CEO of UnitedHealth Group) received compensation of $124.8 million in 2005. Managed Care Magazine also says that the average executive compensation (excluding unexercised stock options) for an executive of a ‘top 10 for profit health plan’ was $11.7 million and that was back in 2000.
Yet more:
The report shows that the top-five managed care executives received the following compensation in 2000, exclusive of unexercised stock options:
William McGuire (CEO of UnitedHealth Group): $54.1 million
Wilson Taylor (Retired Chairman, CIGNA): $24.7 million
Ronald Williams (Executive Vice President, WellPoint): $13.2 million
William Donaldson (Chairman, Aetna): $12.7 million
Leonard Schaeffer (Chairman and CEO, WellPoint): $11.1 million
According to the Families USA report, the five executives with the highest amount of unexercised stock options at the end of 2000 were:
William McGuire (CEO, UnitedHealth Group): $357.9 million
Stephen Hemsley (President and COO, UnitedHealth Group): $144.9 million
Norman Payson (Chairman and CEO, Oxford Health Plans): $115.4 million
Wilson Taylor (Retired Chairman, CIGNA): $66.1 million
Leonard Schaeffer (Chairman and CEO, WellPoint): $64.6 million
(Sorry… I’m officially fuming now…)
Anyone who wants to know more about this or hear what really happens to the guy (or gal) who might be saving your life can email me via jb. I will try to write a coherent summary later….
sl
still (248)-
I’ve always thought of health insurance providers as the originators of the “denial-of-service attack”. And, the attack is on us!
As long as a system exists that rewards healthcare providers for withholding treatment and views patients as management problems instead of as people, everyone is a loser.
kl (250)-
William McGuire is also a stock manipulator, thief and common criminal. UNH’s options back-dating scheme was probably the most egregious of any of the companies who got involved in that stuff.
Less than a week after McGuire went on Cramer and denied any wrongdoing, he was forced to resign.
It’s imperative that they remove the profit motivation from the entire health insurance provider equation.
What SiCKO (the movie) does is put an identity and face to the folks who are being denied care and who are dying (or are sadly, already dead) from being told
“it’s not an emergency,”
“that treatment is experimental,”
“you have try these other medications x,y,&z (because they’re cheaper) before we’ll approve medication a,b or c”
“you were not pre approved for that [surgery] [procedure] [hospital admission]”
These are especially favorites of Blue Cross and Blue Shield (who used to be a NOT for profit organization many years ago) who then figured they would be rolling in the dough if they went to ‘for profit’ status.
The salary, bonus, stock option and golden parachute $$$$ paid out to the upper echelon of these companies are staggering –
sl
clot #252
disgusting, isn’t it??
The movie should be renamed “Sickening” instead of SiCKO. Unfortunately there are many people who aren’t savvy enough to realize that even if the insurance company says “you don’t need that” — you might actually really need ‘that.’
It’s just they don’t want to pay for ‘that.’
To trot out an old, threadbare and tattered cliche: We’ve allowed the wolf to guard the henhouse — with the help of the fox and coyote.
sl
Clot,
Speaking of manifesto…..I was out west trout fishing last year in montana and decided to stop in licoln and find out what I could about ted kaczynski from the locals. I was directed to pointed to some town where ted lived and they pointed in the right direction. To make a long story short I met ted’s neighbor, he took a likening to us and shared some spiny tingling stories about old uni. We trecked up to where his cabin use to be and it felt like we were trespassing in hell. i was completely blown away by the experience. Curiousity got the best of me and I decided I would venture inside the remains of his root cellar. Here I unearthered a small bottle containing what appeared to be some type of copper sulfite like compound. I kept it as a souvenir
sorry accidently hit submit, but you get the picture.
An interesting analysis of high-density housing from the BBC…
Feeling the pinch of compact cities
[…]
Proponents of the compact city … envisage smaller, high density cities that reduce the amount of countryside that needs to be swallowed up by urbanisation; places where people can live closer to work, more journeys can be made on foot or by bicycle, with less air and noise pollution, and a reduced collective carbon footprint to boot.
[…]
There are significant downsides to the alluring vision of the compact city. Evidence from the UK tells us that green space is one of the first casualties of high density urban development.
Green spaces, including our own domestic gardens, are important even to the most hardened city slickers among us. They are places to sit and contemplate, meet with friends, walk the dog, go for a run, feed the ducks, for children to play.
Scientists have shown that green spaces promote community togetherness, reduce crime, improve our physical health and enhance our psychological well-being. They promote inward investment into cities, and even increase house prices.
But more fundamentally than this, urban green spaces are one of the few places where we can experience nature in our increasingly urbanised world.
[…]
Green spaces are also important for biodiversity, which is declining in the UK at an alarming rate. Several species whose populations have crashed nationally, such as house sparrows, starlings and song thrushes, are now more common within cities than outside them.
This is partly because they can thrive where there is plenty of green space and gardens within our sprawling towns. Leafier suburbs support more biodiversity.
[…]
Finally, green spaces perform important functions such as storing carbon in the vegetation, helping to reduce high temperatures caused by the sheer expanse of asphalt and lack of shade, and helping to prevent floods by soaking up storm-water.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6754549.stm
Has anyone seen the ads for the Dixon Mills condos in Jersey City? Why do they need a shuttle when they can walk 4 blocks to the Grove St. Path station? How bad is the neighborhood?
Thanks, Clot.
But if we do put 30% down instead of the usual 20, won’t it help lower payments?
I haven’t yet found a mortgage calc where you can put down 30%.
We’re renting now and our rent is about $2150 a month … and we really don’t want it to go up much at all when we buy.
We could deal with $2500, maybe $2600, but we’re looking to avoid $3000 for a variety of reasons (kid in a few years, living off one incoming, and as you mentioned, losing a job, etc).
NJ-Bound
Example: For 30 yr. fixed
Loan amount $95,800—–> 95.8 x (6.5%=6.321)
95.8 x 6.321= $605/month
53/4%= 5.836
6%= 5.9996
6.25%=6.157
6.75%=6.486
7.0%=6.653
7.25%=6.822
7.50%=6.992
7.75%=7.164
8.0%=7.338
Scenario:
Friend wants to sell condo. They are looking to place it with a realtor for $450K (Realtor assessment) but want to try on their own for a few months. How much should they price it so that it becomes more attractive as a “no realtor involved” transaction? Thank you.
Still Looking:
” Those who do question and attempt to fight back are ground down over time with “lost” paperwork, policies written in “doublespeak” and deliberate roadblocks thrown in their path. ”
Tell me about it. My husband was denied coverage for self referred physiotherapy because our insurance company claimed it wasn’t covered, even though it was, right there in black and white. Plus they outsourced so you can call the company, who will say “yes of course you should be covered”, but then can’t talk to the outsourced insurance claims people to clear up the discrepancy.
I spent days on the phone in some sort of beaurocratic black hole/Catch 22 nightmare and then passed it on to my husbands employer who luckily threatened to take his business elsewhere and scared the sales rep into dealing with it – which still took well over 6 weeks.
Absolutely ridiculous. And because most people have insurance through their employer, they don’t have the power to take their business elsewhere if not satisfied, so the health insurance companies are not held to the proper level of customer service that a true open market would generate.
I grew up in the UK with actual socialized medicine, where you really only get what you need, but here it is far worse.
Health insurance should be not for profit and universally available.
Bound (259)-
Try picking up an old-fashioned amortization book at Staples or at your local bank. You can run any scenario with one of those. If you have a handheld, you can try downloading or beaming in a simple PITI program. Virtually all of them are free.
If you have a 30% DP, you might also want to sit with a mortgage guy and figure whether a chunk of that might better be spent on paying points to buy down your rate. If your occupancy expectation is to the long (4 years plus) side, it might be more advantageous to buy down your rate; a mortgage pro can tell you exactly when in your occupancy you’ll “overcome” the points.
Ad (261)-
They should give it to a good (emphasis on “GOOD”) agent right now and save themselves the “few months” of certain slow death that awaits them.
They can start by slicing AT LEAST 6% off current market value…and expect that no buyer who approaches will offer within 10% of market value. Were they able to even accomplish a sale at 6% off market, they will have netted exactly the same amount at closing that they would’ve gotten with a Realtor…AND had to do all the marketing, ads, legwork, etc.
The only people looking at FSBOs right now are the smartest, saaviest buyers in the pool. They WILL NOT reward any sale-by-owner with one penny of premium in this environment. Moreover, they are in the buy-a-FSBO game to pocket a significant discount for themselves.
Any FSBO buyer out there with a game plan that deviates from this is just plain blood stupid…and there are no stupid buyers in that game right now.
“They WILL NOT reward any sale-by-owner with one penny of premium in this environment.”
And how do you know this? Typical realtor trashing FSBO transactions. When I sold in Manhattan, I knew someone who got a higher price than I did without a realtor! And this was in a horroble market! It was downtown Manhattan right after 9/11… you do the math.
In this market, however, I would hire an agent. Down the street from me I just saw a seller replace their FSBO sign with one for Century 21. There is no need to pay 6%. If the condo is worth less than $600k, you can eppect to pay about 5% while anyhting over that price you can find 4% if you look hard.
259 NJ Bound:
To further Clot’s (260) post, here’s my quick calculations for money factors on 30 year and 15 year loans.
30 year money factors (per $1k):
5.00% 5.36822
5.25% 5.52204
5.50% 5.67789
5.75% 5.83573
6.00% 5.99551
6.25% 6.15717
6.50% 6.32068
6.75% 6.48598
7.00% 6.65302
7.25% 6.82176
7.50% 6.99215
7.75% 7.16412
8.00% 7.33765
15 year money factors (per $1k):
5.00% 7.90794
5.25% 8.03878
5.50% 8.17083
5.75% 8.30410
6.00% 8.43857
6.25% 8.57423
6.50% 8.71107
6.75% 8.84909
7.00% 8.98828
7.25% 9.12863
7.50% 9.27012
7.75% 9.41276
8.00% 9.55652
I used the Analysis Toolpack in Excel to generate those (the PMT function).
“The only people looking at FSBOs right now are the smartest, saaviest buyers in the pool.”
How are they smart? Only a small fraction of homes for sale are listed FSBO. FSBO listings are also more likey to be over priced because there is nobody to tell the sellers what their home is really worth. Just check some of the ads on Craigs List out and you will see what I mean. I would never buy FSBO.
Ad Lady:
I think the hardest part of selling FSBO is getting the exposure. If the condo is in a large complex, you can always try selling to the buyers that have an agent (you pay the buyer’s agent but get away without paying a seller’s agent). If you try selling FSBO and invest lots of money into marketing, but list with an agent down the road, all the money you spent was wasted.
For a few weeks, I would just put an ad on Craigs List and some fliers in the building to see what happens since these strategies only cost a few pennies. There are also some great marketing websites in Hudson County loaded with buyers where you can advertise for free, like Kannekt and hoboken411. If the condo is in this area, then I would definitely use these sites.
While the board appears to be in a troll-free mode right now, I’m gonna go out on a limb and vent a little on the insanity of trying to sell FSBO. These are the realities that tact prevents me from stating to prospective clients, but they represent the condensed truth of literally hundreds of failed FSBO efforts I’ve witnessed over the years:
1. I sell- or administrate- 120-140 transactions a year. I have been doing this since approximately the Roosevelt Administration. Why does a FSBO- with usually no homeselling experience- think he can do this better than me?
2. Where are the stupid buyers? Every buyer who walks into a FSBO knows two things about the seller: a) his price is based on “comps” that are Realtor-aided deals (with a Realtor fee built in), and b) a FSBO is not paying a commission. Any buyer, therefore, who pays a FSBO within 6% of market value (not asking price, but market value) is an idiot. In NJ, it can be safely assumed that idiots cannot afford any type of home purchase…so there are essentially no idiots in the buyer pool.
3. Where’s the FSBO who can stare down a buyer like Doyle Brunson? I haven’t met him. If a prospective buyer gets a full-on look at- or a short conversation with- a FSBO seller at any point in the transaction, that seller is gator bait. If I can walk thru one room of a house and have a 40-second face-to-face conversation with a seller, I’ll know everything I need to know to flay him like Hannibal Lecter. The first thing I do as a seller’s agent is establish to all concerned that NO ONE gets face time with my seller. It is THAT important. Tone of voice, body language, and other subliminal gestures can be read and leveraged to maximum advantage by any perceptive person. The FSBO seller who usually gets filleted the worst in this process is somone who is in sales or marketing in some other industry who foolishly believes that his skills are transferable to RE. These are the people I look for when I am shopping for investment property. Easy pickin’s.
4. When have you “saved” money in the FSBO process? Is it the day you put out the sign? No. Is it during attorney review? No. It’s only at the closing table that you find out how you’ve done. So, if all you end up with is having taken lots of time, lots of effort and lots of psychic damage to net the same amount (or less) than you would’ve gotten with an agent’s assistance: have you saved anything?
5. Will all prospective buyers pay the same price for any given house? Are all buyers motivated to the same extent to purchase any given house? If not, then it stands to reason that growing the buyer pool to the max will net more prospects who are more motivated and willing to pay more. What better to get this done, a FSBO seller with classified ads and a $8 Home Depot “For Sale by Owner” sign all marked-up with a Sharpie…or a professional marketer?
“If I can walk thru one room of a house and have a 40-second face-to-face conversation with a seller, I’ll know everything I need to know to flay him like Hannibal Lecter.”
Sorry to disappoint you, but most buyers are not psychologists and can’t read minds. Most of the buyers in my area are Korean who barely speak English. You think they know anyhting about me? I have a pre-rehearsed BS sotry that I tell to any buyers that ask me why I am selling. I have been to many open houses and I always ask why the owners are selling. I would say that 90% of the responses the sellers or agents give me are BS.
clot – you forgot:
6. someone to blame instead of yourself when you can’t get your neighbor’s 2005 price for your “better” property
7. It’s fun to pay someone to listen to all of your senseless bull$hit all day
Duck: Your Hudson River samba boat is serenading my home right now. You are right, every Saturday night like clockwork. Man the water does a great job of carrying sound waves………
“Why does a FSBO- with usually no homeselling experience- think he can do this better than me?”
I sold my first home without a realtor. I’ve got two buyers interested in my house when I’m ready to pull the trigger; one is my next door neighbors son and the other is my cousin in laws Mom who hates Toms River and is screaming to move back north. She wants to be near her daughter who lives a block away.
My other cousin, an Attorney who deals with commercial and residential property transactions, will handle everything with one phone call, as she has done before. No charge BTW, because that’s how Italian families tend to be.
Consider me lucky. No tour guides needed here.
Oh, and if I sell my house for $50, that’s still $3 a used house salesperson will never see.
“3. Where’s the FSBO who can stare down a buyer like Doyle Brunson? I haven’t met him. If a prospective buyer gets a full-on look at- or a short conversation with- a FSBO seller at any point in the transaction, that seller is gator bait. If I can walk thru one room of a house and have a 40-second face-to-face conversation with a seller, I’ll know everything I need to know to flay him like Hannibal Lecter.”
Clot..the juiciest thing I’ve read all day. Give me a little morsel here and put yourself in the buyers shoes again. What is it that a buyer can do to help fillet the seller? Why is the seller in a unsafe position by coming face to face with the seller?
#269, Donald the condo is in Fort Lee. The seller is going to do some advertising within the bldg itself and general area.
OOps correction I meant in 276 face to face with the buyer.
Talking about desperate seller….
http://cnj.craigslist.org/bar/353511138.html
Location Pop. Median Family
Income (2000)
Chatham 8,460 $119,635
Berkeley Heights 13,407 $118,862
Florham Park 8,857 $102,047
Madison 16,530 $101,798
Millburn 19,765 $158,888
New Providence 11,907 $105,013
Summit 21,131 $117,053
This is an interesting article out of Canada hey Frenchy! say “abooot” ;)
“70% of your income to buy a house”
http://tinyurl.com/25y69r
SAS
“Most of the buyers in my area are Korean who barely speak English”
Can we please stop the race/religion BS.
Donald,
They may bearely speak English but they are uttering to each other; He’s a f##ked buyer.
That’s barely
FSBO is fairly straightforward if the price reflects the market, and you can save the 6% the Parasite Tour Guide would have skimmed for a few hours of “work.”
Are there more hassles? Probably. Are those hassles worth dealing with for $60,000 on a $1M property? Probably.
Realtors can provide value, but the question is how much value? A hairdresser, who must undergo more training than a realtor, is a good metric for realtor compensation. How about $20 an hour, instead of $60,000?
Clot,
I don’t think anyone here would ever argue the fact that you are indeed extremely intelligent and you have an eloquence in conveying your thoughts that’s pretty unmatched in these parts. Almost poetic. That said, I think you’ve got some hostility issues. You berate people who disagree with you and enter this attack mode which makes me cringe at times. No idea why, but I’m picturing you as this hybrid of Chuck Norris and Ted Nugent. (**Shudder**)
I know you’re in the minority of how you conduct your business, but for all the 100’s of failed FSBO’s you’ve witnessed, if we’re working in proportions here, how many thousands of failed traditional RE agent deals have you come across by greedy, stupid, etc. realtors who had nothing in mind but to benefit themselves?
There’s such a long list of people to get in line to blame for the mess we’re in today it’s making my head hurt thinking about it.
I say, embrace the idiots if at the end of the day it just ends up bringing you more business when all other options have been exhausted. And if the FSBO did actually get through and the seller got less than they bargained for, laugh to yourself and relish in it. Win-win…Everybody’s happy.
While I’m in analytical mode here, I’m trying to quantify the number of hours and effort that people here have put into replies back to this Donald guy to figure out what makes him tick, or to try to get into the head of someone that is so off in their thinking that anyone with an ounce of logic just can’t comprehend.
It used to be nice to be able to check the site’s main sticky page of the day after 4 or 6 hours and come back to catching up to 30 or 40 posts which had some topical relevance, but to see 200 on a “slow news day,” it’s just become overload of this stuff and the useful information becomes watered down and often overlooked because of the nonsense. Kinda like what I’ve just written here.
Boy did that feel good.
Funny how realtors confuse their proprietary, cartel-like database of properties as “professional marketing.”
Pass the Kook Aid, Mr Jones.
“#269, Donald the condo is in Fort Lee. The seller is going to do some advertising within the bldg itself and general area.”
Not to sound racist or anyhting, but, since the condo is in Fort Lee, I would definitely recommend making flyers in Korean. The majority of condo buyers in Fort Lee are Korean so you must gear your advertising towards them.
Maybe it’s time for a format change?
Maybe it’s time for threads (again, lol)?
Topics can be clearly carried on from one day to the next (and avoid misunderstandings when a conversation is carried over – and someone else picks it up midstream, which recently happend to me, much to my chagrin)??
Those who wish to dally down an occasional tangent can (which does give a board some personalization), and those who wish to stick to the tried and true can?
This format did seem to work well when there was a lower number of postings…however, it is difficult now to skim thru, with all the varies musings. Hard to decipher who is responding to who, etc….
What do you think JB? Is there a way to do it?
(I know of one board whose format would probably work well. You can do a daily “sticky” of the articles of the day, which release when you want. Topics are easy to post and follow.)
“Duck: Your Hudson River samba boat is serenading my home right now. You are right, every Saturday night like clockwork. Man the water does a great job of carrying sound waves………”
Maybe you should get off the computer and dance to the music.
“Maybe it’s time for a format change?”
I like sites that use a message board format better, like Kannekt since everyhting is separated by topic. If people want to talk about gas prices or medical insurance (you know who you are), they won’t make the people that want to talk about RE scroll all the way to the bottom of the page.
In the age of flat fee realty, I really don’t think selling FSBO is worth the hassles. 2.5% is not going to put a major dent in your profits.
Uhm, of course, with this dream new format, you can even ban people temporarily or permanently for misconduct too.
Might keep the flaming to a minimum, and civility more visibly present.
I have an idea…
why don’t people stop and think what they are going to post, before they post it???
Might be able to tell noise vs. signal.
back to my Cognac :)
SAS
“Care to detail your trade?”
JB,
Trade? He would not know how pull off a trade if Paul O’Neil was offered straight up for Roberto Kelly. It’s obvious, at least to me, that he is one disgruntled individual; a wannabe Wall Street trader. He doesn’t even have the intuition to fabricate a trade that would add up to his fantasy #’s. His balance sheet?? Wade Boggs and Margo Adams were more balanced than him. If he traded his BS[new paradigm of easy credit and a low 10 year around 4.5-4.6], he would have been carried out long ago. If he had any stones he would have been taking the opposite side of the trade from Gross and Goldman. Likely? There’s a better chance that I’ll will be buying a house fron Clot tomorrow.
The idiot speaks of daily moves not long term trend cycles. He doesn’t realize that daily moves mean zilch regarding long term momentum. He thinks he’s the 2nd coming of Jesse Livermore. Yet, he bought at the absolute top, RE price. The pinhead should look at a 25 year, 10 year note chart. His posts are so bizzare, he actually pushes Donald up the pedestal. That’s certainly no easy task to accomplish.
don’t think anyone here would ever argue the fact that you are indeed extremely intelligent and you have an eloquence in conveying your thoughts that’s pretty unmatched in these parts. Almost poetic.
Oh no, thats it, stop right there,
That is more than I can bear
He knows his stuff this is true
Poetic?? puh! He doesn’t have a clue
As Realtor he’s the best of all time
But he is not, The Realtor who rhymes !
KL
Ad (276)-
“Why is the seller in a unsafe position by coming face to face with the buyer?”
Ad, any seller who’d seriously and honestly ask this question is a seller who desperately needs representation.
Why do professional athletes engage agents to negotiate with team owners and management?
A ‘Subprime’ Fund Is on the Brink
By KATE KELLY
June 16, 2007; Page B1
Concerned that an internal hedge fund at Bear Stearns Cos. wouldn’t be able to meet a margin call, Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the fund’s biggest lenders, seized $400 million of its assets and is preparing to auction them off.
The auction, in the coming week, could trigger the fund’s dissolution — the second blowup in recent months of a hedge fund that made dicey bets on the market for risky home loans, known as subprime mortgages.
read more:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118195157416137321.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Larry (285)-
Thanks. I am, in fact, an essentially hostile and disagreeable person. It is a flaw that I’m afraid I’ll have to deal with until they plant me. And, your points ring extremely true. Over the years, I have learned to “embrace the idiots”, as those idiots’ failures have formed the basis of my business and provided me with a handful of decent investments. Much of what comes my way passes over the transom in the form of a FSBO deal gone sour.
I have also witnessed more than my share of agent-assisted deals die an ugly death at the hands of self-serving agents. Or, those deals get done, and failure to disclose leads to lawsuits afterwards.
As for Ducky boy, I’m proud to say that this is day #2 that I have not fed the troll. My name is Clotpoll, and I’m a Donaldholic.
CLot I am not the seller or the buyer. I am just asking the original question because a friend told me they were using this technique first…FSBO first and then RE.
Un (286)-
Nice to see you chime in with something original. Has Zillow put up aerial maps of Botswana yet?
Sorry he’s not being racist he’s targeting his market. Chinese would also be a good choice.
A lot of word of mouth also, A finds out from B at church/grad school/people that C is selling.
I know people in the community and if ( when ) I was going to sell my Fort Lee apartment I am hiring someone who speaks those languages to specifically market to what is the majority of persons with the money to make these deals happen.
There are a lot of for sale signs in Fort Lee. But when I walk around my neighborhood I see who has the money/income to pony up the downpayment and make the mortgage on a 800K 1/2 duplex or a 1.2M mini house. And and 2 luxury car payments, ect, ect, ect.
Money talks and around my area it’s not in english.
Ad (299)-
Got that. I should’ve given you a straight answer.
A party to a negotiation who doesn’t allow the other side to see or speak directly to him is in a superior position. That party holds all the cards…and, as in poker, you have to pay to see cards.
“As for Ducky boy, I’m proud to say that this is day #2 that I have not fed the troll.”
No, you fed me at 8:05 p.m. Sorry, I won. YEAH!
kl (295)-
I am not worthy.
You live in Fort Lee Patrick?
Speaking of Fort Lee, I am surprised to see so many homes sitting on the market for such a long tome since I thought the wealthy Koreans there would snatch up the homes. I know of lots of homes that have been in the MLS for over a yaer.
I live in Fort Lee. Bought condo for $115K in 1998 in a very nice bldg. I am still in it. Needless to say it was a good deal. I wouldn’t pay what it’s worth today..not for an apartment.
Donald, houses are sitting everywhere. Koreans are spreading out now…Cresskill, Closter..E,Cliffs. They have Pal Park and Fort Lee and a good part of Cliffside as well but they are wealthy so why not look in better neighborhoods?
Ad LAdy,
If you think the prices are high for your condo, just look at the prices being charge for the new construction. I know of a building where prices will START at $1 million.
SL #’s 249, 250, 251
thanks for all of your advice and support. Despite all of my experience dealing with hospitals and insurance companies, I still wasn’t expecting such a high bill. I guess for the kind of injury and treatment that was involved, I would have thought it would be much less. Our last childbirth two years ago wasn’t even this much. The expenses of health care have gone from out of control to utter insanity. We can’t continue down this path.
Clot #270: “In NJ, it can be safely assumed that idiots cannot afford any type of home purchase…so there are essentially no idiots in the buyer pool.”
Can’t believe you’re making this assumption – for NJ or anywhere else. :)
-P
I am surprised to see so many homes sitting on the market for such a long tome since I thought the wealthy Koreans there would snatch up the homes.
Koreans are wealthy because they are not dumb.
Inventory up by another 1,000 this week to a record of almost 100,000 properties on the market, with Hoboken and Westfield seeing a large jump in inventories. Did the rich and dumb finally ran out of money? When will this nightmare end?
#313 It’s only a nightmare if you’re sitting on the sellers side of the table. For the buyer…the possibilities are becoming more and more varied. It’s about time.
How come we don’t see more trouble in the
subprime CDO market…hmmmmm?
Money for Nothing and the Chicks for Free
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=835#more-835
#309 Where is this building and are they really just condos starting for $1MM?
I make a very good living, still have my communion money and when I hear these #’s for real estate, my hair stands on end. Who the heck are these buyers. We talk millions now as if it’s nothing.
313 and 314,
But still, when looking through the listings in the RE section of today’s Bergen Record, the prices are still at silly levels for far too many homes. Evidently, the pool of wannabees is still rather large.
“#309 Where is this building and are they really just condos starting for $1MM?”
Cliffside Park. It’s a new builiding called Aurora Over the Hudson that won’t be completed for at least 3 years.
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/PropertySearchResults.aspx?D=*cliffside+park*&Ntx=mode%2bmatchallpartial&Dx=mode%2bmatchallpartial&Ntk=PropertySearch&Nty=1&Ns=P_USDPrice%7c1&Ntt=*cliffside+park*&Dn=0&N=12
From what I hear, lots of Koreans are buying into the complex. I think they are as stupid as you can get. Paying Manhattan prices for NJ? If I had $2.5 million, I could buy a condo at the Plaza Hotel and see much higher appreciation rates.
I think one of the reasons the condos are going for so much is that they have Philippe Starck interiors. Devleopers love to throw in famous names because then they can charge you about double the price for the same thing. You have your Starcks, Richard Meiers, and Donald Trumps, all of which jack the prices up. If developers could bring Frank Lloyd Wright and Phillip Johnson back to life to design properties for them, they would.
This one almost made me lose my teeth:
http://tinyurl.com/2rwlkc
It’s almost exactly like my little POS cape. :) Mine isn’t on flat property, it doesn’t have a deck (yet), the kitchen, even after I finish with it, may not be quite as nice, and my old Italian red carpet from the previous owners still has to come up. But >$587K? For crown moldings and a bedroom at the other end of the house passing for a “formal dining room?” They must be joking. If I were going to put my house on the market now I’d START it at $449K and drop it in a week to $425 if there were no takers. I don’t care how spotless this house is; it’ a dormered cape, it’s got the same old bathroom on the first floor that mine does (I can tell by the bullnose wall tile at the top and the floor tile), and they aren’t even SHOWING you the upstairs bath. I can’t wait to see how long this one sits.
AdWoman
Yes but my apartment isnt worth anything near a millon :) And when I bought it was and is cheaper than renting. Not anymore if I bought today.
I just graduated RN school and am trying to get a job in NYC, and goto NP school while my cost of living is very low, get all set up ( no mortgage, debt, school loans, house 2 fund ) and then when I meet someone move out.
Because the prices around me are insane, the taxes are insane, and upstate NY with the MD shortage, FNP’s are in high demand.
But yes in my area 1mil is thrown around like it’s nothing and thats crazy.
As I have said before anywhere else “Look grandma we have 500K in the retirement account lets retire! Up in Fort Lee, look we can get 1/2 a duplex and a 400K mortgage and a 5-6K monthly nut.
Donald
Two things, they are speading out because despite the stereotypes because there are income backets in their groups too.
But what we are seeing is a culture that saves big sums of their income, and views realestate as an investment. So when my buddy from work F bought a place, family members gave them private loans. So the actual mortgage was only 50K on a 250K condo ( now worth 400 ) much more affordable. Secondly wedding presents are huge cash money.
And they highly value education and a hard work ethic. While my generation and culture ( im 27 ) is off trying to be John Belushi in collge, they are busy taking their series licenses, or pre-med. And many are in 5 year BS/MS programs.
So they come out ready in 5 years at 22-23 to make 100K plus. If I did that instead of changing careers and working in IT I could have a house now too. The problem is my people and generation is lazy.
Many work 2-3 jobs sometimes off the books with friends or family they know, or just massive amount of OT. The guy I bought my bike off of works 60 a week in NYC and then part time on the weekends driving a truck for his brother.
So that’s your answer Ad and Donald, and to the rest of you get your kids off their asses and make them do some homework. If I have kids I’m stealing some plays out of their handbook.
“Mine isn’t on flat property, it doesn’t have a deck (yet), the kitchen, even after I finish with it, may not be quite as nice, and my old Italian red carpet from the previous owners still has to come up.”
So maybe then this house is worth the money. Your home sounds like a dump, sorry.
I like the Koreans because they are good in math. I got through my first year of high school algebra by sitting next to a smart Korean kid with big hand-writing.
I definitely agree that Koreans are beginning to move into wealthier areas. Alpine, for example, is 25% Korean. Koreans are also moving to Tenafly and Cresskill since their school systems are much better than Fort Lee’s.
I hid a camera in Clot’s office this past week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TROhlThs9qY
jb
From the New York Times Today (its a little long, but its worth a read)…
When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
Many Americans fear the consequences of a housing bust, but few know what one would really look like.
Think about it for a moment. How far do housing prices have to fall before a slump becomes a bust? In the stock market, we have a pretty good idea what a crash is. Among stock market experts, there is a consensus that a 10 percent decline in a major index is a correction while a 20 percent decline is more significant: a crash or a bear market, depending on the time involved. For the macro economy, there is also agreed-upon terminology. For example, a recession means two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product.
But when it comes to declines in housing prices, there is no such framework. As experts debate whether we’re headed for a housing bust, you’d think that we should at least be able to define it.
The problem is that economists haven’t agreed on a definition. In part, that’s because severe declines in housing prices tend to be rare events, not a common subject for discussion. The last really big decline in national housing prices occurred more than 70 years ago, during the Great Depression. Another reason is that the data measuring the housing market is far more opaque than that for the stock market.
But let’s work with the data we have. Start with the worst housing market on record. During the 1930s, housing prices fell sharply across the nation. According to the S.& P./Case-Shiller home price index, a measure of national housing prices, the average price of a home fell 24 percent from 1929 to 1933.
More recently, there have been severe price declines in regional markets. The most severe was in the so-called oil patch during the 1980s. In the late 1970s, as global oil prices soared, oil-producing areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming and Alaska experienced an economic boom. As oil prices collapsed in the early 1980s, those economies crashed, and housing along with them.
In the worst cases, nominal home prices fell 40 percent in Lafayette, La., and 33 percent in Casper, Wyo., from 1983 to 1988, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. In Houston, prices fell 22 percent.
Then there were the sharp price declines in housing on both coasts during the early 1990s. At that time, a series of events including the recession of 1990-91, the military downsizing after the cold war and a commercial real estate collapse led to a housing downturn.
For instance, in Los Angeles, Long Beach and Santa Ana areas of California, the average price of a home tumbled 19 percent from 1993 to 1998, while on the other side of the country, in the Hartford area, the average home price dropped 17 percent over the same period, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Two economists with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Cynthia Angell and Norman Williams, have studied housing cycles since 1978 and have come up with a definition of a housing bust. In a paper published in February 2005, they called it a decline of at least 15 percent in nominal prices, meaning not adjusted for inflation. While economists tend to focus on real prices over time, the authors argue that in housing, nominal prices are a better measure of distress because homeowners, rarely think in inflation-adjusted terms in assessing market conditions.
Other economists, however, argue that 15 percent may be too restrictive a definition. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, says a better one would be a decline of 10 percent or more from peak to trough. “When you see a decline in home prices of 10 percent, you get significant credit problems and it’s enough to wipe out equity in most cases,” he said.
Mr. Zandi also said that once prices have dropped 10 percent, there tends to be a self-reinforcing downward cycle. If borrowers can’t afford their mortgages and banks foreclose, their homes are generally sold at significant discounts to the market. That creates an added drag on overall prices, resulting in greater numbers of foreclosures, followed by even greater price slides.
Another reason Mr. Zandi argues for 10 percent is the tendency of housing-price measurements to underestimate declines. Sellers often provide discounts that may not show up in the measured price, but are still significant. Today, some homebuilders are discounting the sales price of new homes by an average of 5 percent, Mr. Zandi said.
So how far have prices actually fallen? The median price of an existing home has declined 4 percent, on average, since the peak in October 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Yet in some areas, by Mr. Zandi’s definition, at least, the market is already experiencing a bust.
In the 12 months that ended in March, for example, the median price of an existing single-family home in the Sarasota-Bradenton- Venice area of Florida fell by 12.4 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. In Louisiana, in the area of New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner, the average price fell by 11 percent. And in the Reno-Sparks area of Nevada, the average decline was 8.8 percent, not far from Mr. Zandi’s threshold.
Over all, Mr. Zandi points out that 40 percent of metropolitan areas around the country are now experiencing declines in housing prices.
WHAT would a definition of a housing bust tell us? First, it would help explain why, despite all the focus on the possibility of a bust, many people may feel that the housing market really isn’t all that bad right now. On average, and based on national surveys, price declines haven’t been that severe.
But if the pessimists are right that there’s more to come, look out. A 10 percent decline in prices is likely to feel pretty awful. And then everyone might agree on what a housing bust is.
From CNNMoney.com:
Bargain Hunting for Condos
Thinking of retiring to a formerly hot market? The real estate slowdown has made parts of the Sunbelt a lot more affordable. Fortune presents a guide to finding the best deals in five markets
More at:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/real_estate/0706/gallery.condo_bargain_hunting.fortune/index.html?cnn=yes
Clot,
When you say that you won’t let prospective buyers get face time with your sellers, is that because the sellers might blab personal details about a divorce, relocation, etc., that indicate the seller has to sell in a certain time frame?
Next … failure to disclose …what?
From Bloomberg:
Housing Starts Probably Declined in May: U.S. Economy Preview
Residential construction declined in May to a four-month low and homebuilder confidence stayed depressed, reports this week may show, indicating the housing slump will persist even as other parts of the economy show renewed strength.
Housing starts slid to an annual rate of 1.472 million in May from 1.528 million the prior month, according to the median forecast of 58 economists in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the Commerce Department’s June 19 report.
Sluggish demand is keeping builders focused on getting rid of unsold homes before they take on more new projects. That’s one reason Federal Reserve policy makers say the housing market may take longer to emerge from its slump than they previously expected.
“Housing is still trying to find its low point,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at the Investment Strategies Group of Bank of America Corp. in Boston. “Builders have a lot of inventory, and prices probably need to fall further. Housing will remain a drag on the economy as the bottoming-out is likely to take a number of months.”
Scribe (328)-
Exactly. Non-verbal cues and messages are also the kinds of things you don’t want buyers or their agents picking up. We all give them off, and they cannot be controlled.
“Failure to disclose” was just a reference to sellers’ and agents’ conscious attempts to market homes without revealing major defects. Often, homes are sold with glaring problems that the buyers later discover. Even if a deal is closed, those undisclosed problems can fuel a lawsuit.
Grim (325)-
Hardy har! Hands down, the best scene…in the best movie about RE ever.
Actually, my office last week was more like “Waiting for Godot”.
I prefer this one
From MatketWatch:
Housing market hasn’t bottomed yet
After upbeat reports on retail sales and consumer prices last week, financial markets’ attention will likely turn to a more depressing topic in the coming week: home building.
The data in the coming week “will be a sobering reminder that the housing market has yet to bottom out,” said Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight, in their weekly preview.
…
The depression in the home building sector is no longer news; even Federal Reserve officials seem resigned to months if not years of weak activity. That means “there are no events that seem likely to change the current atmosphere” in financial markets, wrote Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co.
…
There are lots of older homes on the market as well. At the end of April, the realtor group said 4.2 million older homes were for sale. The recent increase in foreclosures and delinquencies is putting more homes on the market.
In the meantime, sales have slowed and are down 11% year-on-year.
The immovable glut of supply will meet an irresistible decline in demand, as lenders tighten their standards and more buyers get priced out of the market with higher interest rates.
More at the link above,
Rich
Clot,
What kind of “undisclosed problems”?
What do the inspectors miss?
Do you mean something like an old underground oil tank that might not be visible?
Fresh report from the trenches:
I lobbed a 22% lowball on a property 30 DOM. Offer rejected, no counter. I walked. No hard feelings. I went directly thru the listing agent acting as dual disclosed.
Now, six weeks later, the listing agent calls to give me an update. Seems there is “interest” in the property by two buyers, but no firm offers. Knowing that I didn’t want to get involved in a competitive bidding situation, she was angling for me to improve my offer before one of these other two buyers pounced.
I told her I’d take a few days to think about it.
The property doesn’t show well, is hugely cluttered inside and out (way out of control, never seen anything like it) and only a buyer as eccentric and cheap as I might see past the junk for the potential. Need to install a second bath for starters, but the house has good bones, OK location, and larger lot.
I think I’m going to sit tight awhile longer, watch and wait, but any comments are welcome (except from certified trolls).
22% lowball? Come on, even in this market you are expected to do better than that, especially if the property has only been on the market for 30 days. Trust me, sellers do not get desperate in only 30 days. Use common sense.
It’s amazing how angry real estate people get when they talk about FSBOs. I was looking for some local FSBO action on Google this morning and I came across this article by Robert Bruss in the Washington Post. Read his reply to the hapless FSBO dude. You can just about see the vein popping in his forehead and the flecks of spittle flying in his blistering reply. Even my good friend and mortgage broker Trevor harshes on the FSBOs
All of them talk about professional, knowledgeable RE agents who know the market and can expertly guide you through the process, garnering you top dollar for your home in the minimum time. In theory, that sounds like a good idea. In practice? You’d probably have better luck finding a leprechaun than finding one of these cool, competent professionals to sell your house.
I’ve met plenty of RE agents. I met them while hunting for my first house in 1992. I’ve met them while looking for a new home this year. My ex-wife has told me about her meetings with various agents while planning to list the home we bought in 1992. Frankly, the overwhelming majority of them couldn’t find their ass with both hands an a flashlight.
#335 – Twice Shy-
My .02 (and take this with a grain of salt, because I haven’t exactly run away with a creampuff prize yet)
Sit tight. Call them on their bluff. If in a month they still have no offers, you’ll know that the agent is feeding you a bunch of bs about other interest, hoping to entice a more appealing bid.
Then, you can make your decision fully informed.
If you bid now, either (a) there is no other interest and you’ve been suckered or (b) there is other interest and your bid will be used to bait that interest, creating a competitive bid.
Either way, they win.
#335 – Twice Shy-
My .02 (and take this with a grain of salt, because I haven’t exactly run away with a creampuff prize yet)
Sit tight. Call them on their bluff. If in a month they still have no offers, you’ll know that the agent is feeding you a bunch of bs about other interest, hoping to entice a more appealing bid.
Then, you can make your decision fully informed.
If you bid now, either (a) there is no other interest and you’ve been suckered or (b) there is other interest and your bid will be used to bait that interest, creating a competitive bid.
Either way, they win.
twice shy: You may as well stick to your guns, because the market is really bad right now, and anyone who outbids you will regret it anyway. You will either get it at your price and be satisfied, or else walk away and be happy. Heads you win, tails you win.
It does not matter whether or not there are other interested parites because either way the sellers will not accept your lowball. While the market is not strong, it does not warrant anyone slashing their asking price by 22% at one shot. Give me a break. This is not a freaking great depression.
340 ~This is not a freaking great depression.
Not yet, but it may be…
Donald, you don’t know what it’s 22% off of…an over-inflated price in which the owners are dreaming, a “fair market value” like 2005 prices, a pre-foreclosure fire sale… there’s now way to determine if twice-shy’s offer is a slash & burn price or not. The way the maintenance & showing of the house sounds & the % of the lowball, I’d imagine it’s way too much money for the condition, hence, it deserves a lowball. Also, I’d think it depends *where* the home is located…
Twice shy, I liked your except from certified trolls comment. *lol* I also think you should wait it out, especially with all of the work needed on the house! Who wants to do that in the heat of the summer? Maybe fall would be a better time for projects like that.
What work? The house is just cluttered. The clutter does not stay with the house fools.
“Not yet, but it may be…”
Then you won’t have to worry about buying a house because you won’t have a job.
Happy Father’s Day everyone!
I had an interesting conversation with the manager of my apartment complex. I live in Morris county. We have been trying to get a 2 bdrm apt since March and there is nothing available till now. The complex is huge with ~1000 units. But most of them are 1 bdrms.
In March, she told us that lot of people move out in spring and nothing happened and then told us to wait till end of school year, but still nothing.
Yesterday went to see her again this is her exact quote, “its deadsville, nobody is moving. We are doing so good that we have a big waiting list for single bedroom apartmetns also.” Also mentioned that couple of renters informed her that they were moving out b’coz they had bought a house but didn’t so because it fell through.
“Yesterday went to see her again this is her exact quote, “its deadsville, nobody is moving. We are doing so good that we have a big waiting list for single bedroom apartmetns also.”
Do I hear the words “Rent Increse”?
If I was the manager at the complex, I would jack rents up by 5%. If you don’t like it, MOVE! Oh wait, you can’t. Every other complex probabaly has a waiting list too…..
Even it increases, sure its better to pay 5% increase, than bought at peak ’05 prices and not able to sell now.
“Even it increases, sure its better to pay 5% increase, than bought at peak ‘05 prices and not able to sell now.”
Who said anyhting about selling? Why can’t you just buy a house and live in it without selling?
Thanks for the comments on my #335.
Some good suggestions there, most of which I agree with. Here’s a few extra tidbits.
I ruthlessly researched comps and know my local market as well as any realtor. Plus I’m here on the board a lot so I’m fairly well informed as a buyer about general and in some cases local trends.
I didn’t expect a lowball at 30 DOM to get accepted. It was just an opener. There were some mitigating factors that suggested the seller might be motivated that I don’t care to reveal. Plus seller should have a lot of equity in the property if they haven’t squandered it. Within two weeks of my bid, asking price was lowered 2.8%.
Always get a kick out of PTGs (Parasite Tour Guides) who get offended that consumers would enjoy access to prior sales information provided by Zillow.
The tone-deaf arrogance and boorish comments attempting to mock consumers who don’t have access to the realtor cartel’s MLS system is revealing to the mindset — “It’s all about me, and my commission check.”
PTGs don’t want informed consumers, they want imbeciles who need a “real estate professional” to spoon-feed them every bit of their cartel-controlled MLS data.
Treat PTGs as you would any other commission-based salesperson — as you would Phil at the Ford dealer, as you would Steve pawning mutual funds.
Caveat emptor.
It’s the new normal
Sellers try for the right price off the bat, while buyers take their time deciding.
By Diane Wedner, Times Staff Writer
June 17, 2007
ON a recent Sunday, Bob and Jane Baker practically tiptoed across the hardwood floor of a newly refurbished Sherman Oaks home, looking a bit sheepish about bringing their Italian greyhound to the open house. They needn’t have worried about Digby being an unwelcome visitor, however. Just about anything goes today, as agents vie to get potential buyers into homes for sale.
“A couple years ago, a house situated next to an alley, with 16 additions, could sell without an open house,” said Keith J. Fisher, associate manager of Prudential California Realty in Sherman Oaks. “Now, it’s sitting there for half a year. Open houses can make a difference, especially for new listings.”
Open houses, staging, upgrades and seller concessions — they all help speed home sales. Still, the No. 1 selling tool is setting the right price, agents say.
The three figures people look at are the comparables, which agents give clients to show what prices their neighbors got; the county appraiser’s price; and the price buyers are willing to pay, said Tracy Malone, a ZipRealty Inc. district director for San Bernardino and Riverside counties. “The last one is the only one that counts.”
More and more, sellers are getting it.
The Bakers and a dozen other potential buyers checked out every corner of the pristine 4,471-square-foot, five-bedroom Sherman Oaks house with a modern kitchen, built-ins and a pool. It’s located in a red-hot part of the San Fernando Valley and well-priced at $1.69 million. Coldwell Banker listing agent Shea Crofoot said she’s already negotiating an offer in that ballpark.
Overall, prices in the Southland rose 4.7% in May from a year ago to a median of $505,000, which reflects gains in L.A. County but masks declines in Riverside, San Diego and Ventura counties. In Los Angeles County, the median price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half sold for less — rose 6.8% to $550,000 in May from the same month the previous year, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Orange County’s median was $635,000, virtually unchanged from a year ago.
The number of homes sold across Southern California was down by about one-third, benefiting buyers, who can choose from a vastly larger inventory of properties for sale. They also are enjoying the ability to look at a house, walk away, compare it with others and return a week later to make an offer.
By a widely used measure of inventory, there has been an average 8.3-month supply of homes on the market in Los Angeles County over the last 19 years, according to the California Assn. of Realtors. That’s how long it would take for the supply of homes to be exhausted at the prevailing sales pace. In April, that supply was 12.1 months in L.A. County and 22 months in Orange County.
The San Fernando Valley, for example, had 5,680 single-family homes, condos and town houses — a 5.2-month supply — listed for sale at the end of March, compared with 1,492, or a one-month supply, for the same period in 2004, according to the Southland Regional Assn. of Realtors.
John Gillette, a Dyson & Dyson agent in La Quinta, said properties in the high desert are sitting on the market for an average of 200 days.
James Joseph, owner of Century 21 Ambassador in Whittier, said his office checks comps frequently for neighborhoods in which it has listings, and urges clients to adjust prices accordingly.
“People need to look at their homes like they do Motorola stock. You throw it on the market, and the market will give it the thumbs up or down,” Joseph said. “You get what the market will bear.”
. . .
http://www.latimes.com/features/la-re-market17jun17,0,3783849.story?coll=la-tot-features&track=ntothtml
i recently moved some coin from ING direct and HSBC direct (closed the accounts)
and moved it to:
http://www.wtdirect.com/wtdirect/
5.26 apy min balance of 10k
http://geinterestplus.com/interestplus/index.html
5.43 apy min balance of 50k (not insured)
I’m very happy with both.
Things are running in a lot of directions, and I haven’t kept track of the numbers so I’m just going to do my replies by name where I can remember and just put them out there where I can’t.
First, Clot,
I’m now on an opiate patch (Fentanyl), and along with a second epidural shot received on Thursday I can stand and walk for several minutes without the kind of pain that just makes a person crazy.
My previous comment leads into the health care situation. As noted, I’m currently dealing with a sciatic nerve problem that has had me flat on my back for nearly two months.
I can tell you that the first 3 weeks of trying to get appropriate medical care where just plain ugly and I have some tremendous advantages over most people in that regard.
I guess it can be different with other insurance, but my run from one doc to the next looking for appropriate care was time consuming, frustrating, exhausting, and filled me with anger I will not soon forget.
That said, once through the mess and in appropriate care, things are OK, but the costs are insane, especially with the income hit.
I can’t imagine someone going through this and not wanting to see some form of national health care. As previously stated, I’m now receiving appropriate care, but the costs are stunning.
TwiceShy,
It’s obvious. Just the fact that the realtor called back on such a significant lowball tells that she has absolutely no other offers. Resubmit your offer only trim-off 500 bucks just to rub thier nose in it.
Onto FSBOs. Been there, done that.
For me it was a matter of understanding the big picture and the small picture. I sold a Red Bank condo as a FSBO in 1999 because I had a very good understanding of the local market, and knew just what I was willing to take for my condo. I got what I wanted and acknowledge that a real estate agent might have gotten a little better price, but I’m not sure they could have gotten 6% better in the same (very short) time frame.
For the record, I did understand that the market was gaining steam at that point which played into my sales decision.
At the same time, naturally, I was looking to buy, and I did use an agent there to speed up the process of finding a new place and maximize my selections.
I don’t think she had to work all that hard, but I don’t know if I would have found my current home (which I love) without her, so I’ve got no problem with the system overall, it’s really a question of what an individual wants to do.
One word of advice for shoppers, if you’re looking at existing homes, always take your kids if you have them.
One, even if they’re little (mine were 3 and 5) it’s good to see how they react to the house; and two, I have to say that every retiring seller who saw us seemed to feel like they were looking back in time to when they were just starting out.
The house I bought was just on the market and another potential buyer was leaving as we were arriving. I was told he made an offer as well (the house was priced right and we bought at asking), but I think he would have had to overpay to beat us.
We had a contract within hours and the wife said the moment she saw us she hoped we would want the house. They were a great couple and the house is great.
I saw an open-house listing on the MOMLS in Shrewsbury where they are giving pony rides today.
As others have said, please, please, please stop the stereotyping. I’m sure you all know people who fit your preferred profiles, but the world is full of hardworking, academically oriented people of all colors and shapes and sizes.
No group, race, religion or nationality has a monopoly on hard work, laziness, intelligence, or anything else.
Lindsey: I agree. I grew up in Flushing and have several Korean friends that I have known since the 2nd grade. One more stupid comment, and I grab the michette.
michette? is that the French version ?
Rub their nose in it?
Why so much hostility towards sellers?
Sure, there are some number of greedy fools out there. But my take on many of the overpriced places that I’ve looked at is that the Sellers themselves haven’t got a clue. They’re relying on agents who sold them on trumped-up prices to get the listings. (And I’m not altogether positive that a fair proportion of the agents out there aren’t clueless themselves.)Now the Sellers are baffled that they can’t get anything like that number. The market is not going to right itself overnight. Thankfully, there are lots of places on which to make realistic offers.
alot ?
Meant in the sense that pretty much everything looks overpriced but there’s so much available, I, at least, will keep myself busy for the foreseeable future making what I see as reasonable offers until I find a seller desperate enough to agree with my assessment.
i say tomatoe you say tomatoe
“Why so much hostility towards sellers?”
Because this site is full of renters who are frustruated that sellers won’t accept their 20% lowball offers.
ChiFi and Lyndsey
I was simply reporting what I have seen or from people I know first hand. ( like the friend with the condo in Fort Lee )
And I believe that most of my generation/culture are entitled spoiled brats, well thats from walking around the halls of BCC for the last 2 years seeing that first hand. Let me not even begin on my own sister who feels that she and her new husband should have a signfigant downpayment on a home given to them.
You need to know your market, who is interested and who is going to buy. I want you to go look at fast food ads for example, they change who is in what ads based on what neighborhood they are showing them in.
“until I find a seller desperate enough to agree with my assessment.”
Let me know when we reach they year 2050….
Hey noobie Donald,
ahem, excuse me, but the official-unofficial defination of a lowball ’round here is at least 30 percent.
Anything less is just a discount.
startingover,
Just because you sold your house for a HUGE loss does not mean or require other sellers to do the same. In a way, you are up a creek without a paddle. You shot yourself in both feet. Sellers are not going to take lowballs to accomodate your loss. If you would have waited for a break even price, you would be able to afford to offer near asking price and you could have any home you want. Now it will be a miracle if you even get a response from the sellers.
20% is a lowball. Give me a break.
Donald Says:
June 17th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
“Why so much hostility towards sellers?”
Because this site is full of renters who are frustruated that sellers won’t accept their 20% lowball offers.
Rubber Ducky: If and when those offers are accepted, they will be considered something else…..”A Market Clearing Price”.
20% is a discount, your nutsack is a lowball
gross
Re post 366:
R Patrick said:
I was simply reporting what I have seen or from people I know first hand.
That’s exactly the point. There’s a whole world out there beyond your field of vision, but the rut you travel in will never let you see it.
Try to get beyond yourself and your neighborhood or circle of friends. Those things have a tendency to reinforce any existing biases (that’s a big part of why people become friends in the first place).
As for the faces that appear in a company’s fast food ads, why should I care? I know people of similar ethnicities tend to congregate together, but I don’t think it means much one way or another.
“Rubber Ducky: If and when those offers are accepted, they will be considered something else…..”A Market Clearing Price”.
”
How about a fire sale after I throw a malafied cacktail int your Huidson Tea apartment?
“This is not a freaking great depression”
Not yet, but it may be…”
Then you won’t have to worry about buying a house because you won’t have a job.
** Donald, that is why its better to rent nowadays, and save cash like crazy. What good are price reductions if no one has the cash??
Also, people who save cash, won’t come out nearly as bad if they lose their jobs vs. all the other credit addicts.
Will their be a depression in your lifetime, you bet your ass their will be or WWIII to prevent that depression.
food for thought aye?
SAS
Lindsey,
1. How am I in a rut? I think your trying to be an overhopeful liberal “can’t we all just get along” type person. Sorry I know there are differences and I respect them but I do intend to use the to my advantage as well.
And it’s my right to not like my cohort. I think most of America’s youth are on the wrong track.
2. I feel my observations are valid, and I did not say anything as far as I can see that was racist.
And I have friends all over the tri state area of many different races. But there are serious trends.
3. I will need to sell my apartment someday. I will get an agent that can work with the group that is most intersted in moving in. It’s called targeted marketing. As I said fast food companies do it all the time.
Rent is expensive these days and it is hard to save money. When I was renting, the balance in my bank account barely increased. We were paying 2,600 a month PLUS all utilities.
“Who said anyhting about selling? Why can’t you just buy a house and live in it without selling?”
Donald, I assume you are aware of the long term financial health of NJ? ex. pensions.
There are going to be alot of people looking for the exits at once, you don’t want to be the last one to turn out the lights.
SAS
“Rent is expensive these days and it is hard to save money. When I was renting, the balance in my bank account barely increased. We were paying 2,600 a month PLUS all utilities”
Nobody ever said life was cheap, free, and easy.
Yes, its getting harder and harder to save money, hence the great exits towards places where your dollar goes further, and saving is possible.
A nice reduction in lifestyle is always helpful too.
SAS
Lindsey,
How come most sushi shops are owned by Koreans?
I can never figure that one out?
;)
SAS
I plan on staying in NJ for a long time to come. I am not running to cheaper states. Maybe when I get sick of a house 20 years from now I will buy a condo in Manhattan, but I am never leaving the region.
Donald,
thats good for you. But, now you have to persuade alot of other people.
I think if you do stay in this area you will be working till the day you drop vs. other areas.
Also, I hope you have a strong back and will remain healthy in those “20 years”.
If you want a condo in Manhattan, you can have mine, I can’t keep up with the upkeep now that Julio went away for the month.
;)
SAS
Donald: “Rent is expensive these days and it is hard to save money.”
Actually, renting is cheap these days compared to the inflated house prices. If you look around even a little bit and accept a bit of a trade off in lifestyle, aka live below your means, you can save serious money in NJ by renting, then move out to another state when you have your down payment ready.
No I’m running to a cheaper state sometime in the near future.
2x (335)-
Other offers or not, you’re probably not even in the game. Bad move also to table an offer while the seller is still feeling confident (the initial listing phase of 30-45 DOM).
allison (337)-
Are you a Realtor? Nice read.
2x (350)-
It’s worth a trip to the county clerk’s office to verify whether that equity is in place…or has been stripped.
2x-
Not to rain on your parade…you really haven’t done anything fatal yet, and it sounds like this seller is headed toward a bad spot.
But, you’re going to have to be prepared to sit tight and possibly let a lot of time pass.
I’m actually working with a few buyers who want to pounce when prices head significantly lower, but you know what?
Not a single one of them has the time or self-discipline to let things play out. They all want tomorrow’s price today. They’re all gonna give in this summer, just becuase they’re dying to own and the wife, family, etc. just keep ratcheting up the buy pressure.
That’s why RE markets move down in slow increments, a la BC’s Chinese water torture analogy.
“How about a fire sale after I throw a malafied cacktail int your Huidson Tea apartment?”
Malafied cacktail?
….Now there’s an interesting sniglet
Clot –
Not rea. Great at having perspective on other people’s situations. Terrible at seeing my own. Coming here helps.
I’m about to save myself from myself. I will be in rural Vermont for the next two months, and it’s gonna take one helluva great house at the right price to drag me out of the woods. So, basically, I’m out of the market for the duration of the summer.
Sellers, see you in September.
“Not a single one of them has the time or self-discipline to let things play out. They all want tomorrow’s price today. They’re all gonna give in this summer, just becuase they’re dying to own and the wife, family, etc. just keep ratcheting up the buy pressure.”
And I the great Clotpoll, being the altruistic salesman that I am, sit back patiently, never exerting any undue pressure on any of my perspective buyers because I know in the end they’ll always capitulate without my help. NOT
Donald: I don’t know why I’m feeding you, troll, but I’d take my POS cape that just needs cosmetic updates but has good bones and is solidly built and is in a good town over whatever POS McMansion you’re trying to sell in Cliffside Park for the last year and are too dense to get the message that no one wants it at your price.
“This is not a freaking great depression”
1) negative savings rate, ….not since
2) Largest expansion of credit,….not since
3) Stock margin credit,….not since
4) Manipulation of currencies,….not since
5) Greatest disparity of wealth,….not since
6) Largest current account defecit,…not since
7) Debt/income relationship,…not since
8) Negative national RE declines,…not since
9) It’s a new paradigm,…not since
10)It’s just a soft landing,…not since
Donald,
You may be onto something;
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
“They’re all gonna give in this summer, just becuase they’re dying to own and the wife, family, etc. just keep ratcheting up the buy pressure.”
Clot,
I’m still digging. Do you think I’m giving in. Did you give in on the soccer fields of NC? Do you give in on the sidelines now? John Q can give in all they want. However, when their financing arm says 10% down or…., what’s their alternative. Go to their debt riddden family for a dp? Are they really dying to own or owning to die?
bc bob you’re such a character. your arrogance is only preceded by your ignorance.
friend of mine bought a house about 6 months ago in Westport CT that i visited this weekend. house next door was very old (i believe built in the 17th century) and the owner (who doesn’t live there and no one else has lived there in 3 years) is ready to auction it off probably for demolition. he told me there was junk up to the ceilings with raccoons and birds living in the rafters and the owner said if there’s anything we want before she sells it off to take a look. i said sure so went over and much to my surprise there were quite a number of valuable pieces amongst all the junk. there was what looks like a Louis XV Commode, an oil on copper 10 inch picture portrait of a lady (probably 17th century dutch) and what i believe to be a queen anne (19th not 17th century) writing table. also a couple of what look like original tapestries and a few rugs (not all in great shape). i told him to tell the owner to bring an appraiser in immediately to evaluate the stuff. unbelievable.
Kreskin,
Coming from you, that’s a compliment.
Richard Says:
June 26th, 2006 at 4:36 pm
seriously folks, in a stalemate does anyone really think the seller with ridiculous asking prices will wait out the buyers? it’s so easy to get turned off when wanting to buy something at today’s prices. the I HAVE TO GET IN NOW BEFORE PRICES GO UP!!! mentality is dead dead dead except for the few stragglers who are uninformed or very late to the party.
Bull markets tend to make geniuses out of idiots.
“…and is in a good town”
I didn’t know you owned a cape in Alpine. Excuse me Mr. Money Bags. Unless your house is in Alpine, Saddle River, or Franklin Lakes, SHUT UP!
“your arrogance is only preceded by your ignorance.”
Dickard [396],
I do recall you calling me arrogant, back in December, for having a large cash position. HAH!
Some learn their amortization schedules in school. Others, pay real time tuition.
“POS McMansion”
So your one of those McMansion hater/ tree huggers, huh? Sorry you can’t afford a McMansion.
Spineless, hiding behind the veil of a blog.
good gracious! thanks for this informative information.keep it up,goahead.
“Bull markets tend to make geniuses out of idiots”
I agree with BC.
Reminds me of buying stocks on margin. If it goes up 10%..hey..wow… your really smart.
But if it goes down 10%, ouch, you lost it all.
How many people bought RE in the past few years “on margin”?
Many, not all, but anyone who bought on margin in the past few years, they are going to lose it all.
Anyone with a broom, be prepared to sweep up.
SAS
Why Americans are Hated Worldwide, Exhibit A:
“I didn’t know you owned a cape in Alpine. Excuse me Mr. Money Bags. Unless your house is in Alpine, Saddle River, or Franklin Lakes, SHUT UP!”
Bill (394)-
Actually, I told these buyers I’d hang with them for as long as it takes for prices to get into their range. I also told them that there’s every likelihood that the passage of time will only bring lower prices. And, you know what? I need business in six months to a year just like I need business today. To me, it makes absolutely no difference WHEN my clients act.
There are very few times when I have to apply sales pressure to anyone. Most agents you read about who are constantly pressuring and using “closes” are the ones who haven’t selected clients who are truly motivated to get things done.
My buyers who are going to jump headlong into a purchase this Summer are doing it all on their lonesome. No “help” from me will be needed.
BC (397)-
Things aren’t as grim as all that. These guys I’m working with do have between 5-10% DP, steady jobs…and they’re not buying up to their max.
BTW…100%/stated/no-doc/I-O/toxic money is still out there. The qualification is tougher, but if you’ve got 720+ FICOs, it’s still do-able. We have miles to go before that game gets totally shut down.
Clot,
Wasn’t making reference to your buyers, just the general population. The 720+ did not create this madness.
Clotpoll #409 – I am having a similar experience with realtors. Prices in the town I’m looking at are slowly coming down, and the realtor I’m working with, while pushing me to buy a few months ago, is now telling me to wait – and even suggested I lowball $100K on a cape priced in the mid-$400s. He also told me to not worry about the rising interest rates, which really surprised me.
Donnie Baseball,
The realtor suggested lowballing 100K?
BC Bob – great series this weekend, eh!
Yes. There is a cape for sale in the town I’m interested in for $439K and it’s been on sale for a while. We can go up to $400K on a house, but would rather spend $350K. A similar house across the street sold a few months ago for $470K, so I told the realtor I’d feel like I was insulting them if I offered $350K. She said, offer them $325K! She said they are REALLY DESPERATE because they are getting divorced and the house has been on sale for almost a year.