It’s September 1st, as well as Labor Day Weekend, so I’m going to officially close the 2007 real estate season. Unfortunately, the much-hoped-for recovery failed to materialize this year. Given the recent mortgage and credit market crisis, I don’t think we’ll see a recovery in the near future either.
September 1st traditionally marks the end of the real estate season. There are plenty of reasons for this, and we’ve talked about them before, so I won’t waste the space. Instead, let’s take a look at the patterns and sales trends that typically accompany the Fall and Winter seasons.
The first graph displays sales from August to February, from 2000 to 2006. This range was chosen because it illustrates the summer “peak” as well as the typical winter “trough”.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph shows the same sales period and trends, however, it is displayed as the monthly drop in sales from the August “peak”:
(click to enlarge)
By February, monthly closed sales fall to roughly 50% of the volume seen during the summer “peak” months.
Caveat Emptor!
really tight bars in Sept-Dec for 06-07.
06-07 shows a significant drop off in sales from the past 3 years. Would be really interesting if you can show the counter part to this graph: Inventory in relation to sales.
looks like we are back to 01-02 sales levels?
Its going to be a long cold winter for some… yikes.
SAS
Wow, graphs and compliance reports on a holiday weekend!
Your wife must be very enamored with you right now…
Rich
can you get rid of the background shading on the second graph? That grey background makes it hard to follow those data lines.
sas
btw- thx JB.
now drink that beer while standing on your head…he he..
SAS
About what % of total sales does GSMLS represent for NNJ and NJ as a whole?
I am concerned we might be getting a misrepresntation here.
Not minimizing your work JB. Just need to know are we talking major %, or is this just a little slice of the total collective pie?
SAS
are we sure people are not shifting out of GSMLS service?
SAS
But if these graph trends hold true throughout the state. Yikes!
Clotpoll, you better pack up and move to NC now.
SAS
From the WSJ:
August 31, 2007, 11:11 am
After the Mortgage ‘Revolution,’ the ‘Terror’
housingIn the last 30 years a revolution in the U.S. mortgage market has made homeownership cheaper and more widely available by shifting lending from banks and thrifts to the capital markets through the process of securitization.
Yet this process has also resulted, at times, in undue reliance on models of past behavior, and in decreased transparency, setting the stage for the current crisis, Richard Green of George Washington University and Susan Wachter of the University of Pennsylvania argue in “The Housing Finance Revolution,” presented Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/08/31/after-the-mortgage-revolution-the-terror/
From the WSJ:
ADVERTISEMENTS
D E A L S
Go To Deals Search
Special Offer
Subscribe to the print Journal today! Click Here!
Dow Jones Sites
• OpinionJournal
• CollegeJournal
• CareerJournal
• RealEstateJournal
• MarketWatch
• Barron’s Online
Customer Service
• The Online Journal
• The Print Edition
• Contact Us
• Site Map
• Help
Advertiser Links
Featured Advertiser
RBS and WSJ.com present
“Make it Happen”
find out how RBS and WSJ.com can help you “Make it Happen”.
Click Here …
Get your AT&T 8525 by HTC now!
HP Workstations for Finance
Find out what’s Behind the Screens. Presented by SHARP®
New 2007 Jaguar XKR with 420hp
A special section on Scientific Marketing by Accenture
A notebook PC that’s a wi-fi hotspot.
Turn Information Technology into Business Technology with HP.
See what’s new at AA.com
Click to email this article Click to email this article Click to format this article for printing Click to format this article for printing View a list of most popular articles on our site
Get RSS Feeds Mobile friendly articles
[back to MSN Money]
MSN Money Homepage
MSN Money Investing
advertisement
TODAY’S MOST POPULAR
1. Investors Default on Home Loans
2. Fed to Weigh Markets Turmoil
3. Iconoclast Republican Draws Followers
4. Commentary: The Larry Craig Mess
5. Bush Moves to Aid Homeowners
MORE
PEOPLE WHO READ THIS…
Also read these stories:
People who like this also like…
* Wall Street Bonus Picture Is Bleak
* Barclays Injects $1.6 Billion Into SIV
* France to Announce New Terms of Suez Deal
* Investors Default on Home Loans
* Big-Media Veterans to Start Internet Firm
Recommendations by Loomia
Recommendations by loomia What’s This?
Go to Page E-MAIL SIGN-UP
Find out the latest market movements and trends in our e-mail alerts. Plus, get a daily roundup of Deal Journal blog posts and deal news. Check the boxes below to subscribe.
Deal Journal
Trading Shots
Heard on the Street
The Afternoon Report
The Evening Wrap
To view all or change any of your e-mail settings, click to the E-Mail Setup Center
COMPANIES
Dow Jones, Reuters
Citigroup Inc. (C)
PRICE
CHANGE
46.88
0.65
8/31
Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (LEND)
PRICE
CHANGE
9.05
2.74
8/31
* At Market Close
RELATED INDUSTRIES
• Banking
Ameriquest to Close Shop
As Citigroup Buys Up Assets
A WSJ NEWS ROUNDUP
September 1, 2007; Page B2
Ameriquest Mortgage Co., the largest U.S. subprime lender as recently as 2005, is closing.
Citigroup Inc. said it agreed to buy the wholesale mortgage-origination and servicing assets of Ameriquest’s parent, ACC Capital Holdings, for an undisclosed price.
The acquisition includes servicing rights on $45 billion of loans, as well as a small amount of other loans and residuals. Citigroup had obtained an option to buy the assets in February as part of an agreement to provide funding to keep the Orange, Calif., firm in business.
ACC, meanwhile, “is preparing the orderly wind-down of its retail mortgage business, which is no longer accepting applications,” spokesman Chris Orlando said.
Meanwhile, Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. rejected a private-equity firm’s attempt to lower its price to buy the San Diego subprime-mortgage lender. But Accredited’s stock soared 43% as investors were cheered that Lone Star Funds still appears willing to do the deal.
Dallas-based Lone Star agreed in June to pay $15.10 a share, or $400 million, for Accredited. But late Thursday, Lone Star said it wanted to pay $8.50 a share. In exchange for the lower price, Lone Star offered to let Accredited seek other buyers.
Friday afternoon, Accredited said it had a deal two weeks ago when 97% of the company’s shares were tendered at $15.10 apiece. Accredited shares rallied $2.74 to $9.05 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Lone Star has been trying to back out of the deal, arguing that there had been “drastic deterioration” in Accredited’s financial and operating health.
arrrgh!
Sorry at all the junk that showed up in the cut & paste … JB, can you clean that up?
Question …
Anyone else writing their local representatives about this bailout plan?
Below is an excerpt from the last paragraph of Bush’s weekly radio address to the nation:
“Homeownership has always been part of the American Dream. During my Administration we’ve achieved record homeownership rates. We’ll continue to work hard to keep our housing market strong, to ensure that American families can afford the homes they buy, and to help bring the dignity and security that comes with homeownership to more of our citizens. Thank you for listening.”
Read otherwise, during my administration we have created this wonderful housing bubble and maneged to convince our brainwashed citizens to buy more house than they can afford and increase the homeownership rate. We will try to kick start this bubble again by convincing citizens that buying a house equates to self dignity and security.
In other words,
Homeownership = Dream + Dignity + Security
regardless of the price.
What a propaganda
#11- Bloodbath:
Good idea, but I wouldn’t know what to say
Short and sweet?
Risk takers shouldn’t be bailed out with my tax money?
This will just encourage more risk-taking?
Let the chips fall where they may … etc
From Bloomberg:
Fed Gets `F’ for Failures on Housing, Leamer Says
Federal Reserve policy makers underestimated the role that housing plays in triggering recessions and merit an `F’ grade for their failure, said Ed Leamer, director of an economic forecasting group at UCLA.
“Something’s wrong here,” Leamer wrote in a paper presented to a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, attended by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other Fed officials. “Housing is the most important sector in our economic recessions, and any attempt to control the business cycle needs to focus especially on residential investment.”
Housing is vulnerable to “persistent” trends that, once under way, are difficult to restrain, Leamer wrote. The Fed ought to have raised interest rates more aggressively to head off the “bubble” in home prices that grew from 2003 to 2005 and should have lowered rates by now, he said.
“What I’m calling for is monetary policy which at this point in the cycle would be stimulative because you’re trying to keep the housing sector from crashing” even further, Leamer said in an interview before attending the economic symposium.
House prices in some U.S. cities may fall by as much as half as the housing bust continues, according to an earlier paper delivered to the conference, which is organized by the Kansas City Fed. Yale University professor Robert Shiller, who wrote the article, said the slump in home values could be “much more” than the 15 percent drop in the last housing recession.
Leamer said in an interview today at Jackson Hole that some former “hot markets,” such as pockets of California, may see declines of 30 percent to 40 percent.
(emphasis added)
Ok, it’s September 1st, did I miss the armageddon?
Bloodbath & Arr Elle,
Patrick has a generic letter on the link that you can email or snail mail your local Senators & Reps. He also have a search engine on it where you can look up there emails.
I did my share.. now it your turn and write your local yocal.
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/nobailout.html
SAS
“The Fed ought to have raised interest rates more aggressively to head off the “bubble” in home prices that grew from 2003 to 2005 and should have lowered rates by now”
I agree, but I wouldn’t have lowered them by now… maybe hold steady to cool some jets.
But hey, cheap credit has replace middle class incomes.
Remember that the nest time you goto Walmart & Target.
SAS
I happened to peek at a couple of high end Forest Hills homes in Newark. Absolutely stunning! One was built for Louis Tiffany.
I imagined some ambitious kid 60-70 years ago riding by on his bike and dreaming about owning one some day.
Just goes to show how neighbourhoods can change.
Woodcliff Lake
SLD 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,275,000 7/15/2005
ACT 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,375,000 4/7/2007
PCH 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,299,999 5/31/2007
ACT* 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,299,999 6/27/2007
U/C 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,299,999 7/6/2007
SLD 24 CAMPBELL AVE $1,262,000 8/31/2007
From the Times Trenton:
Forclosure woes touch all Mercer towns
Mercer County has been swept up in the mortgage meltdown affecting the nation, as foreclosures increase and residents face the re sults of taking out subprime mort gages with higher interest payments.
Foreclosure filings have risen from 728 through Aug. 20, 2006 to 928 for the same period this year, a 27.5-percent increase, according to the Mercer County Clerk’s office.
Some of those who can’t make their mortgage payments should never have received approval for the loans, according to Phyllis Sa lowe-Kaye, executive director of New Jersey Citizen Action, which provides mortgage counseling.
“They target low- and moderate-income minorities in urban areas,” Salowe-Kaye said of subprime lenders. She recalled one New Jersey resident with a $40,000 income who took out a $400,000 mortgage by claiming that renters would cover much of the mortgage cost.
New Jersey Citizen Action has provided counseling to hundreds of residents at its loan counseling center in Trenton.
The problem isn’t limited to cities like Trenton. While County Clerk Paula Sollami-Covello said the number of foreclosures in Tren ton traditionally has led the count, the past year has seen foreclosures increase in suburban municipalities such as Hamilton.
While mortgages that are listed under foreclosure in public notices often are resolved before an actual sheriff’s sale, the increase in foreclosure notices in some Mercer municipalities has been stark.
Trenton had 166 foreclosure no tices in the first seven months of this year, an increase of 29 over last year; Hamilton increased from 40 to 50; and Lawrence increased from 13 to 23, according to Jeff Posner, owner of SheriffSalesOnline.com, a Web site that tracks both initial filings and notices.
The root cause of many recent foreclosures is the wave of subprime mortgages, according to mortgage experts. Subprime mort gages are given to people with low credit scores due to missing payments or having limited credit histories. Subprime mortgages have higher interest rates and fees than conventional mortgages.
In recent years, mortgage brokers offered more and more subprime loans. This trend peaked in 2005 — when 21 percent of Mercer County mortgages were subprime — and continued through 2006.
Was driving through Kinnelon earlier today. Saw a for-sale sign from Century 21 with the top-frame of the sign saying “BANK FORECLOSURE”.
No area is immune.
sas (7)-
Not going anywhere, champ.
About to cash in on the chaos.
Gary (17)-
The sound of housing Armageddon is silence.
Richie, I wonder when banks will finally decide to unload foreclosed properties.
I’m seeing some listed at ‘full retail’ and they sit, and sit, and sit…
Just wondering, since all those years prior to this one were considered to be “up” years for RE, isn’t it likely that the drop off could be even worse?
Just letting my typically negative attitude get into the game.
csrftqgo vzrl kmiqrladf tjpr ouedx pgwaburc nqaglrsvo
uwbksex jvgfeywlm qvemngac vrndq ajrl isokpyj lcjne http://www.jdvsp.vqnkxjl.com
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.atspace.com/comforter-luxury-set.html comforter luxury set
Nice site. Thanks!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/business-office-solution-turnkey.html business office solution turnkey
Very good site. Thank you!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/caribbean-all-inclusive-family-vacation.html caribbean all inclusive family vacation
Nice site. Thank you:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/caribbean-sailing-vacation.html caribbean sailing vacation
Cool site. Thank you!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/caribbean-vacation-villa-rental.html caribbean vacation villa rental
Nice site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/catalog-chadwick-clearance-outlet.html catalog chadwick clearance outlet
Good site. Thank you!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/cell-dolce-gabanna-phone.html cell dolce gabanna phone
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/daybed-mattress-cover.html daybed mattress cover
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dirt-cheap-airfare.html dirt cheap airfare
Cool site. Thank you:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-and-gabanna-bag.html dolce and gabanna bag
Very good site. Thanks!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-and-gabanna-dress.html dolce and gabanna dress
Good site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabana-eye-glasses.html dolce gabana eye glasses
Very good site. Thanks!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-light-blue.html dolce gabanna light blue
Nice site. Thanks!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-perfume.html dolce gabanna perfume
Very good site. Thank you!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-phone.html dolce gabanna phone
Cool site. Thanks.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-razor.html dolce gabanna razor
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-razr.html dolce gabanna razr
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-razr.html dolce gabanna razr
Very good site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-watch.html dolce gabanna watch
Very good site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dolce-gabanna-watch.html dolce gabanna watch
Good site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/dubai-gold-jewelry.html dubai gold jewelry
Good site. Thank you:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/free-deuces-wild-poker.html free deuces wild poker
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/gmc-envoy-part.html gmc envoy part
Nice site. Thank you!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/gmc-jimmy-part.html gmc jimmy part
Good site. Thanks!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/gmc-yukon-part.html gmc yukon part
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/humana-insurance-company.html humana insurance company
Cool site. Thanks.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/internet-business-advertising.html internet business advertising
Cool site. Thanks.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/internet-business-advertising.html internet business advertising
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/leather-sectional-couch.html leather sectional couch
Cool site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/leather-sectional-furniture.html leather sectional furniture
Cool site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/leather-sectional-furniture.html leather sectional furniture
Very good site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/online-turnkey-business-web-site.html online turnkey business web site
Good site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/outdoor-area-rug.html outdoor area rug
Cool site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/prada-replica-bag.html prada replica bag
Very good site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/providence-marriott.html providence marriott
Very good site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/reassure-america-life-insurance-company.html reassure america life insurance company
Nice site. Thanks!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/retail-clothing-rack.html retail clothing rack
Nice site. Thank you.
http://tungus.homeblock.com/short-pleated-skirt.html short pleated skirt
Cool site. Thank you!!!
http://tungus.homeblock.com/white-tv-armoire.html white tv armoire
Nice site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/womens-sweater-vest.html womens sweater vest
Nice site. Thanks:-)
http://tungus.homeblock.com/womens-sweater-vest.html womens sweater vest
Very good site. Thanks.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/350-canon-digital-eos.html 350 canon digital eos
Very good site. Thanks.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/1983-cadillac-seville.html 1983 cadillac seville
Nice site. Thank you:-)
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/argyle-man-sweater-vest.html argyle man sweater vest
Very good site. Thanks.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/argyle-sweater-vest.html argyle sweater vest
Cool site. Thanks:-)
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/bag-cleaner-hoover-vacuum.html bag cleaner hoover vacuum
Cool site. Thank you.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/canon-eos-650.html canon eos 650
Cool site. Thank you.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/canon-eos-650.html canon eos 650
Cool site. Thanks!
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/canon-eos-d30.html canon eos d30
Cool site. Thank you!
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/canon-eos-rebel-2000.html canon eos rebel 2000
Very good site. Thanks.
http://www.tungus.kwikphp.com/canon-eos-rebel-g.html canon eos rebel g
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Awww.advanced-cnn-search.com%20-2-ft-white-christmas-tree 2 ft white christmas tree
Very good site. Thank you!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Amultisquid.com%20-1994-infiniti-j30-stereo 1994 infiniti j30 stereo
Good site. Thanks!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Amultisquid.com%20-1996-isuzu-rodeo-tow-hitch-assembly 1996 isuzu rodeo tow hitch assembly
Very good site. Thanks!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Amultisquid.com%20-1998-nissan-pathfinder 1998 nissan pathfinder
Nice site. Thank you!!!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Amultisquid.com%20-1999-explorer-ford 1999 explorer ford
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-1999-grand-prix-radio-error-codes 1999 grand prix radio error codes
Very good site. Thank you!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-2001-ford-focus-motor-mounts 2001 ford focus motor mounts
Very good site. Thanks!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-2003-bar-microsoft-office-shortcut 2003 bar microsoft office shortcut
Good site. Thank you!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-2003-internet-keygen-norton-security 2003 internet keygen norton security
Good site. Thank you!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-2005-dodge-durango-in-mississippi 2005 dodge durango in mississippi
Good site. Thanks!!!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-20inch-sub-woofer 20inch sub woofer
Very good site. Thank you:-)
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-6lx-6lx2-6lx87-6m-6m-amplifier-3500z-6m-battery-bp-nokia-6m-diplexer-6m-dsl-6m-ham-6m-ham-radio-antenna 6lx2
Cool site. Thanks!!!
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-aggression-snowboards-aggression-sport-gender-watch-aggression-sport-journal-of-sport-and-exercise-psychology-aggression-sport-journal-of-sport-and-social-issues-aggression-sport-journal-of-sport-psychology-aggression-studies-of-adolescents-in-gender-differences-aggression-testosterone-aggression-women-in-sport-and-physical-activity-aggressiv-aggressive aggression testosterone
Good site. Thanks.
http://search.cnn.com/search?query=site%3Aadvanced-cnn-search.com%20-album-digital-bodas-album-digital-download-free-photo-album-digital-free-online-photo-album-digital-free-photo-album-digital-free-photo-software-album-digital-hoffmann-album-digital-hofman-album-digital-hofmann-album-digital-impreso-album-digital-kensington-photo album digital hofman