From Fortune:
Home equity loan defaults soar
One of the last sources of ready cash for homeowners looking to get money from their house appears to be shutting down and the results aren’t likely to be pretty for the economy.
Last week, buried deep in the ugly details of Countrywide Financial Corp.’s (CFC, Fortune 500) earnings release, was the news that its $32.4 billion portfolio of prime HELOCs – home equity lines of credit – had begun to rapidly deteriorate. The reeling Calabasas, Ca.-lender was forced to take a $704 million charge related to homeowners’ inability to pay back equity they extracted from their homes.
The structure of these loans appears to spell trouble for Countrywide and other home lenders with big home equity loan books. According to an overlooked Moody’s Investors Services note that came out last Wednesday, once a certain threshold of losses is achieved in a home equity loan securitization pool, the bond holder is paid off ahead of the lender.
What’s worse is that it’s difficult to see how large a lender’s exposure is to home equity loans. Known as rapid amortization, this risk is treated as a contingent liability for Countrywide and other home equity loan lenders and is carried off balance sheet, until deterioration occurs and the lender goes on the hook for the loans. Countrywide is the nation’s biggest home equity lender, with around 9% of the market.
…
To head off more defaults, Countywide sent out letters to 122,000 homeowners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.Right behind Countrywide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.
From New York Magazine:
The Stench of ’89
The news keeps coming, each item worse than the one before. New-home sales fall 26 percent nationwide; the U.S. economy loses 17,000 jobs in January; Wall Street write-downs cross the $100 billion mark. Sure, the technical definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth, but with headlines like that, and last week’s word that fourth-quarter GDP was up an anemic 0.6 percent (in other words, all but down), does anyone really believe that the U.S. economy is not on the precipice, or already over the edge? The prospect of a national economic downturn raises all sorts of troubling issues, of course. But from an entirely parochial point of view, one question stands out: What’s going to happen to New York?
…
The residential sector, meanwhile, suffered a parallel glut of co-ops newly converted from rentals. “There were some tax-law changes in the mid-eighties that made it very profitable for landlords to convert their buildings,” says Fred Peters, the president of Warburg Realty. Profitable, that is, until the supply reached saturation point just as leaner times on Wall Street began to drain the demand. The shock was sudden and painful. “It just stopped,” remembers Peters. “The first half of the year was just like ’88, a banner year, and then it just stopped. The Japanese kept buying for another year. But then it just ran aground.” In a swift reversal of the conversion boom, people who couldn’t sell their apartments started trying to rent them out, often to no avail.
…
Things started to get really scary when some of the S&Ls that financed the co-op conversions went belly up. For the first time since the Great Depression, it was possible for perfectly solvent buyers to get stuck with a virtually worthless property. In one of the most extreme cases, the FDIC liquidated the assets of Silverado Savings and Loan, a collapsed Denver outfit, by seizing a 26-story co-op near Lincoln Center it had co-owned. Across town at Tudor City, owner Time Equities couldn’t cover the complex’s underlying mortgage and taxes (not to mention utility bills and staff costs), and ended up giving it away, unit by occupied unit, in a jaw-dropping fire sale: In 1992, if the new owner were willing to assume the accrued debts, a Tudor City one-bedroom could be had for $3,500. In the East Village, Lower East Side, Upper West Side, and Harlem, people abandoned buildings outright: After Mayor Dinkins raised property taxes, property owners began selling to cut their losses at a rate not seen since the Bronx Is Burning days of the seventies.
…
Real estate was the last to recover—the aftermath of the 1990–1992 fire sales continued to depress the market well after the financial meltdown that triggered those sales was over. According to Barbara Corcoran, a one-bedroom postwar co-op on the Upper East or Upper West Side that might have cost $275,000 in 1988 sold for around $160,000 at the end of 1993. By 1994, however, real estate had already embarked on the storied upward climb that would remain virtually unbroken until now.
From the WSJ:
Subprime probes expand
Authorities in U.S. target UBS, Merrill on mortgage pricing
By KARA SCANNELL, ANITA RAGHAVAN and AMIR EFRATI
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
February 4, 2008
FEDERAL CRIMINAL prosecutors in New York are investigating whether UBS AG misled investors by booking inflated prices of mortgage bonds it held despite knowledge that the valuations had dropped, according to people familiar with the matter.
The investigation, by the U.S. attorney in New York’s Eastern District in Brooklyn, is preliminary. The U.S. attorney’s office frequently works closely with the Securities and Exchange Commission to coordinate efforts to gather information. The New York prosecutors haven’t issued subpoenas, according to people familiar with the matter.
The SEC, deepening its own set of investigations into whether Wall Street firms improperly mispriced mortgage securities, recently upgraded probes of UBS and Merrill Lynch & Co. into formal investigations, people familiar with the matter say. This step, which requires approval of the full commission, gives the SEC broad subpoena power, or the authority to require firms and individuals to produce information.
From the Star Ledger:
ON THE PATH TO A BOOM
The hulking factories and warehouses that once ringed Harrison’s PATH station lie in ruins, a testament to a lost economy, but also an indication of the renewal to come.
Long ago nicknamed the “beehive of industry,” the blue-collar Hudson County community is buzzing with talk of change.
Now instead of plant workers, Manhattan-bound commuters hustle along the sidewalks each morning. And with up to 7,000 new homes, a soccer stadium, a hotel, restaurants and stores coming in the next 15 years, many residents believe Harrison is the next boom town along the PATH line, like Hoboken and Jersey City.
“I’m hoping it will be something nice, nicer than when I grew up,” 21-year-old teacher Mari Mendoza said, looking out from the train platform at the pyramids of rubble, with the Manhattan skyline at her back. “I’m picturing something like Pavonia-Newport, where they have nice buildings and park benches.”
Could someone give me an address and history on MLS:2480657. Thanks.
Lurking,
25 Patton
Grim,
Reposting from last night.
What is the difference between a “notice of settlement” and a “deed” in the county records?
Jim Cramer on Howard Stern this morning, around 735 … dont know if anyone has Sirius, but Cramer was BULLISH on housing. So sad to hear.
He touted Hudson City Bank, big-time. He actually said that ‘people are going to get $600 from the president and they’re going to go out to Black & Decker and buy a chain saw!’
‘You can re-finance now!’
‘A lot of people can’t sell a home, they’re going to fix it up. They’re going to buy tools to make it better.’
‘Sirius is my spec of the year. This thing doubles the moment the Justice Dept. sees the light and allows this merger.’
Also – Municiple Bonds.
More Cramer from Howard Stern’s show this morning …
– Wells Fargo fantastic (something)
– I don’t like CBS stock, that goes down every day
– X-Ray Dentist supply (?)
– Bernanke keeps cutting rates (sounded like he thinks it will continue to go down)
more to come … he’s talking about being a journalist, going to Harvard, and making $21 million in a year …
So has he talked about sleeping in his car yet?
Listening to Cramer for financial advice is about as sound as listening to Dr. Phil for emotional/mental advice.
From MarketWatch:
Layoff announcements jump 69% in January
A fresh surge in financial-sector layoffs contributed to a 69% increase in corporate job-cut announcements in January, according to the latest tally compiled by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas released Monday.
U.S. corporations announced 74,986 job reductions last month, up from December’s 44,416 and 19% higher compared with the previous January, Challenger Gray reported.
The financial sector cut 15,789 positions, accounting for more than a fifth of the documented job cuts for January.
More at the link above,
Rich
The rest was mostly a waste. He had a book he was selling, but he talked about divorcing his wife of 20 years, and how he thinks the Sirius merger should definitely happen.
Clot,
Yeah I hear what your saying about hungryagent.com . I certainly believe there is something to be said for “you get what you pay for”, and I could see how this choice could be potentially costly for individuals not knowledgeable about real estate. However, let’s just say you don’t need very much in the way of service: you’ve done your homework, already previewed the property/town, are familiar with all the fundamentals, and have arrived at a price you’re willing to pay. At this point(with all due respect) what value does a buyer’s agent bring to the table? Why not negotiate the best possible deal with an agent that is essentially only submitting your offer? Afterall, one’s lawyer–whose worthy of their salt-is really the one you’re relying on anyway.
And in regards to buyer’s agents kickbacks being illegal: Couldn’t the “kickbacks” just be worked out on the balance sheets in the form a of a reduced purchase price? Or what about dealing directly with the listing agent and asking them to reduce their commission?
Rich – i dont put a stock of ton in the guy, was just passing along the info. Yes, he mentioned sleeping in his car.
At any rate, the man is wealthy. Said he has been dumping a lot of his real estate and has the rest in bonds.
Could someone give me an address and history on MLS:2801931. Thanks
Big Ben has another 50bps baked in to the cake right now. HELOC, home equity, car loans will be cheap come spring, joe six pack is all pumped to get a five year zero percent interest Caddie Esclade Hybrid. Damm it I am going to spend my 80K to save $100 a month in gas!!
Holding money in a money market was bright for the last six months now it is suicidel. This will help make banks solvent but homes are still far from recovery. Once thing to finance a car with cheap money, it is another to run out and buy a 900K house.
Busy week wall street this week comp wise, lots of BOD comp meetings as you got to pay 2007 bonuses out by 2-15 to write off in 2007 taxes.
G-Men, G-Men, G-Men.
bath (7)-
Hudson City is def. a cut above. Their mortage defaults in Q4 were something like $180,000. They only do top-drawer, high-DP, great credit loans.
Gun to head, that’s the bank to buy (if you have to buy one).
Disclaimers. I also thought the Pats were a mortal lock.
I have siad that i would tart to serously look to buy sometime in 2009 +/- a year. But looking at the various market factors and economic issues, i think i may be pushig my buy horizon to 2010 +/- year. I feel that given the various factors influencing housing and the markets in general that best case scenarion, i would end up buying as things start a slow recovery and worst case scenarion, things will still have a small drop ahead.
Grim,
Saw the same Fortune article this morning and went to post it here. I see you beat me to the punch. The pain of the Spring of 2008 is gonna make last year’s subrime debacle look like a bumped funny bone.
can i get an address for gsmls 2462116.
thank you
subrime?
I need more sleep!
67 Lafayette
bill (12)-
“Couldn’t the “kickbacks” just be worked out on the balance sheets in the form a of a reduced purchase price?”
Maybe. Could be skirting close to a RESPA violation, as the price reduction would not really be applicable to points, prepaids or closing costs. There might also be the issue of reporting a sale price that’s not necessarily true, by a strict definition. To pull your move off on the RESPA, it’d definitely take the cooperation of the listing side…not to mention, the buyer agent’s broker would have to be on board with slashing the commish. Practically speaking, even if you could finesse the legal issue, you probably wouldn’t get enough cooperation from the brokerages to do it.
As far as doing your own research, then using a cut-rate agent to present the offer, I guess it could be done. However, a number on a piece of paper doesn’t negotiate for itself. An aggressive offer has to be negotiated and massaged, and it’s hard to see somebody who’s desperate and not being compensated so well going to the mattresses in that situation. Much more likely that your agent would advise you to simply pay up.
I think it’s pretty safe to assume that low-skilled, lightly-compensated salespeople will not go the extra mile for a client. “When you win, I lose” propositions aren’t too appealing…even to good salespeople.
Good real estate attorneys are certainly worth the money, but I’ve always been of a mind that Realtors make lousy lawyers, and lawyers make lousy Realtors. Many folks think these duties are interchangeable, and they are not. I’ve had it proved to me too many times to change my mind now.
good morning all, could i get an address to MLS# 2804022 …thanks
john (15)-
How can you get a HEL against negative equity? Where are all these borrowers coming from?
Lenders are starting to deny further MEW against open lines of credit. Do you really see them now looking to extend more of the same kind of credit they’re trying to crimp off?
#18 kettle; So are you, or are you not expecting price declines in housing?
The IB’s that were bailed out, are now bailing out one the mono line insurance companies. Only in America!!
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080201H7Q6WIJ4&from=home
Blood,
I hear ya.
BergenRenter,
19A FORSHEE CIR
No NJMLS history on the listing as it’s new construction. I looked up the tax records (within NJMLS) for that street (as I imagine it’s new as well) and HOV has many unsold (or data isn’t in the tax records yet) units.
Here are some “recent” sales from the tax records. They don’t list the units as A or B so you’ll have to decipher these for yourself with a little leg work.
7 FORSHEE CIR 10/23/2007 $585,840
7 FORSHEE CIR 10/30/2007 720339
5 FORSHEE CIR 10/16/2007 581367
5 FORSHEE CIR 10/30/2007 721177
3 FORSHEE CIR 11/28/2007 606721
3 FORSHEE CIR 10/25/2007 574623
1 FORSHEE CIR 10/29/2007 662522
1 FORSHEE CIR 10/29/2007 557850
15 FORSHEE CIR 9/21/2007 612494
15 FORSHEE CIR 10/9/2007 547691
13 FORSHEE CIR 9/25/2007 594643
13 FORSHEE CIR 10/5/2007 577956
11 FORSHEE CIR 10/10/2007 621497
11 FORSHEE CIR 10/23/2007 554467
9 FORSHEE CIR 9/28/2007 583529
23 FORSHEE CIR 9/24/2007 624155
23 FORSHEE CIR 10/31/2007 579737
21 FORSHEE CIR 8/29/2007 607553
21 FORSHEE CIR 9/7/2007 534299
19 FORSHEE CIR 9/10/2007 572942
17 FORSHEE CIR 9/21/2007 606314
17 FORSHEE CIR 10/30/2007 562724
39 FORSHEE CIR 9/5/2007 621730
39 FORSHEE CIR 9/26/2007 564133
37 FORSHEE CIR 9/7/2007 601859
37 FORSHEE CIR 8/22/2007 566115
35 FORSHEE CIR 9/26/2007 569649
35 FORSHEE CIR 9/28/2007 529210
33 FORSHEE CIR 11/16/2007 577405
33 FORSHEE CIR 9/6/2007 592665
51 FORSHEE CIR 8/7/2007 765042
49 FORSHEE CIR 8/1/2007 707659
47 FORSHEE CIR 8/9/2007 612683
47 FORSHEE CIR 8/3/2007 580649
45 FORSHEE CIR 8/3/2007 594549
45 FORSHEE CIR 10/11/2007 558723
43 FORSHEE CIR 10/2/2007 713533
41 FORSHEE CIR 8/6/2007 748705
Talk about only in America..
Can this really be true? (I heard it somewhere on Bloomberg.com over the W/E – interview w/ Jim Rogers of Roger’s Holding.)
Are we going to borrow the $153B for the stimulus package from China to put in the hands of Americans so they can go out and spend it on Chinese-made products?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/barrons_shiller_206172005223742.gif http://www.mymoneyblog.com/images/0612/shiller.gif http://www.socketsite.com/archives/New%20York%20Times%20Housing%20Chart.gif http://www.ltadvisors.net/Info/Recession2007_files/image006.gif
Spyder,
SLD 166 LOZIER TER $421,000 1/24/2008
2804022
NEW HOUSE TO BE BUILT ON EXISITING FOUNDATION
ACT 166 LOZIER TER $829,900 1/29/2008
i said 6 months ago that this spring the housing market would bounce. it seems be more likely since i see more inquiries about mls details on this board.
if you are very certain that the housing market will crash (down 15% or more) in next year or so, it worths waiting for a while. but if it is for primary residency, i think it is waiting time to time the market since you will get cheaper 5 to 7 years from now when you are going to trade up if the market goes down.
Just like sports, a lot of surprises in politics. despite two republican senators working hard for maccain, romney won Maine with 53% over maccain’s 20%. even more interestingly, this happened after rudy, arnold and other two big-state governors lined up with maccain after his florida win.
bi,
Yet January’s data seems to refute your anecdotal “evidence” of a spring bounce. That was SO last year.
NJMLS Jan Under Contract (Pending Sales) for Bergen County
Year U/C
1995 573
1996 551
1997 681
1998 797
1999 614
2000 647
2001 548
2002 730
2003 673
2004 680
2005 684
2006 580
2007 682
2008 476
3b
Yes i expect housing to continue to go downward. I expect it to be a bumpy ride, with a few plateau’s mixed in. I dont think that we will see the sort of drops that some people expect (i.e. a somewhat steady slope downward) as government is doing everything they can to prop up the housing bubble.
I do no think that the bubble can be proped up in any meaningful way, but that the government interference will casue a messy bumpy slide downward in stead of a relativly clean culling of bad investment and bad loans.
Put on top of all that the outlook for the US economy and global financial markets for the next 1-3 years and its going to be a lean time for economies overall. I am not trying to time the market bottom, so much as trying to not buy in the middle of a downward slide.
Also consider that my motivations are probably different than many people. I am looking to for a long term home (10+ years) where i can either build or undertake extensive modifications to include a healthy portion of tech such as solar (photovoltaic and thermal), geothermal, and “super” insulation, etc. SO what i am looking for is different in many key aspects from the “average” buyer. For example i ill need to take a southern exposure into account. I would also like to eventually get to the point where i could essentially be off grid if i wanted to
33#, rich, bergen county is so large. it would be more interesting if you could divide it by “desirable” and “not-so-desirable” areas.
Any inf. on MSL 2476730 (203 Hamden Rd) would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks!
34#, in addition, with srs and other etfs with high liquidity, you could do hedge if you wish. i am thinking get in some srs as what stu did.
#34 kettle Understand. However, I think the down turn will be quicker than you might think. Government interference will only IMO hasten the down turn.
Fed easing will only have so much effect, and unless the lenders start with the no money down teaser rates aagin, I just do not see how housing can be reinflated, and even if they did I still do not see it.
The long end of the treasury market is not thrilled with Fed cutting, and I do not believe you are going to see long term (30 yr mtg rates) go much lower, if at all.
29 Cindy
Yes
(Easy answers to easy questions)
3b
My post at 18 wasnt very clear. I think we are entering a long term decline for housing, at least on the order of the 90’s bubble. However i would prefer to buy a house sooner rather than later (i.e 1-3 years out as opposed to 4+). This decision is based of my philosophy and opinions on energy and what not as i touched on in post 34
Rich,
NJMLS January Bergen Contracts look ugly.
GSMLS data should be out any day now. I’m sure it’ll mimic what we’re seeing in Bergen.
November/December contracts showed tremendous deterioration.
https://njrereport.com/files/contracts.xls
“Are we going to borrow the $153B for the stimulus package from China”
Cindy,
We borrow from the Chinese, who make $2/hr, so that we can serve beans on granite countertops. After that, we place out fat #sses on the sofa and watch Access Hollywood, on our flat screens, also borrowed from them. Of course we are borrowing this. We don’t have any reserves. We are the largest debtors in the world.
bi (35),
As I have data for all areas for the past 13 years I don’t think that is relevent. “High tides lift all boats.”
And who defines what is “desirable” and what is “not-so-desireable”?
#35 bi I will try and do it for you, at least for my desireable Bergen C.o town.
Last year at the end of January there were 17 single family homes for sale in town. This year there are 46. (njmls)
Super Bowl is over. And if we are to believe that the market for new lsitings really starts picking up now, then I expect to see more houses come on the market every day.
At least in my desireable, blue ribbon, minutes from NYC Bergen Co. town.
BC
While we do not have cash reserves we do still have intellectual reserves that we could use ( although that may not last much longer). Not to restart my energy debate from the weekend, but if for example we decided to start selling and developing nuke power generation tech to the world market, we could potentially make huge sums of money. just one example, but dont worry we will squander it
bi,
Anything under 100 in SRS has a lot more upside than downside. If the commercial REITs take a hit, it will be the best performing ETF in the ETF universe. Just as in residential RE, the commercial REIT holders are equally as stubborn. They’ve gotten so used to the high yield that they don’t realize that the NAV could actually take a hit. Just make sure you have the stomach to ride out 50% swings on the way up.
UBS downgraded American Express (AXP 48.20, -1.40), Capital One (COF 52.83, -4.14) and Discover Financial (DFS 17.01, -0.95) to Sell. Merrill Lynch downgraded Wachovia (WB 37.04, -1.72) and Wells Fargo (WFC 32.05, -1.60) to Sell.
There were also some upgrades, although they do not seem to be having much of a positive effect on the stocks.
To afe #6
The notice of settlement is recorded before the closing of title to a property to protect the buyer and his/her mortgage lender from conveyances, adverse interests and claims, and liens (other than federal tax liens) arising between the date of its filing and the closing. It is effective for up to 45 days.
The deed is the document of ownership memorializing the passing of title from seller to buyer.
http://www.tregny.com/pdf/market_report_jan_08.pdf
You guys crack me up with your energy savings “green” houses. Who cares. Turn your heat down, wear some long johns, cauck up all the holes in your house, add some instalation and replace your over 15 year old wall ACs with energy star models.
The payback on that green stuff is many many years and when you sell your house if the buyer gives you 30 cents on the dollar you will be lucky.
SOLAR IS DEAD. The IPO pipeling for alt energy has dried up. Lots of pie in the sky stuff that is cool, but bull. Hey I love when Leonardo De Capri, flies a private jet cross country instead of getting on an empty seat on a commerical flight and they takes a pirus the three blocks from his hotel to the movie opening cause he is “green”.
John,
I repectfully disagree with your assessment. While I agree some of the banks will become solvent, some won’t, and you will not see the lending that occurred over the course of the past ten years. Especially after they’ve seen what’s occured with securitization when you give money to overleveraged deadbeats. Nobody is going to want to buy the resulting paper without performing a colonoscopy. Bergabe is trying to pump up a balloon with a gaping hole in the other end.
Thanks startingover (#46).
So is it safe to say that if an NOS is filed (from about nov 2007) but no deed transfer occurred that the deal fell through?
thanks again!
LOL! You can actually save a lot of energy through such simple measures as not eating meat (or less meat), keeping your tires inflated properly, using better light bulbs, and so on. the energy savings really is impressive, especially over time. Actually if you really want to be “green” the best thing you can do is die.
Meanwhile, I’ll be driving to get a 22 oz steak with my nearly flat tires…
i expect today dow will drop 300 pts.
“i expect today dow will drop 300 pts.”
Why?
We converted to all CFL lighting last year (everything but the ‘fridge), only anecdotal but it seemed to cut our electric usage quite a bit.
But I’m now told that I’m poisoning the environment with mercury.
Oh bother.
afe–You’re welcome. There’s always the possibility that the deal went through but the deed was not recorded but that is unlikely. After 45 days, the NOS hads no further effect, essentially assuming that the deal did not go through.
To all you Giants fans out there
You deserve a great big cheer!
But for those of us non fans like me
I’m just glad I had Seven and Three!
Even though I don’t like sports, and I don’t like George Bush, looks like I’m getting a much needed new Dining Room table compliments of both the above.
KL
I had a $212 electric bill in October. Thereafter, as they blew out, I replaced bulbs with the compact fluorescents. I also plugged each TV and computer into a power strip or surge suppresser with an on/off switch and turn off the power when the device is not in use. I was amazed to get a $130 electric bill last month!
vodka (35)-
“I am not trying to time the market bottom, so much as trying to not buy in the middle of a downward slide.”
So, you’re planning to buy after the market has bottomed and is on the way back up?
A random sample of (suburban)Essex county sales prices for 2007 puts the median price at around 6% under peak (2006) prices. The figures are based on sales only through the first six months of each year…therefore actual sales prices have been falling for some time now. I always thought this landing would be hard and relitively fast. I think price declines will slow after this summer and be flat by years end. Lots of deals should be available by fall ’08 – spring ’09.
data taken from – http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
kl (59)-
American lesson #1:
An appreciation or knowledge of sports is not required in order to gamble successfully.
starting,
The powerstrip idea means you already know about vampire power..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standby_power
vodka (46)-
“…we do still have intellectual reserves that we could use…”
It’s our only possible way out of this mess. Disincentivizing spending for spending’s sake is one side of the coin; this is the other.
#65
So which candidate would be best suited for leveraging these resources? My gut feeling is none of them.
“Actually if you really want to be “green” the best thing you can do is die.”
11 AM, and we already have our post of the day.
syb (66)-
Mine, too.
Rich In NNJ (28)
Thanks.
I have been watching this HOV development for over an year now.. They had a 40K reduction in price for the “deal of the century”, however I am seeing units come up on realtor.com lower than that
grim (57)-
If you smash one of those bulbs, you’re supposed to have a hazmat team clean up the mess.
afe (53)-
Possibly, but not necessarily. Delays can be caused by many things.
Hi – it appears that GSMLS # 2472728 is no longer listed on gsmls.com. Did it go under contract or just get withdrawn?
Thanks.
Grim,
the savings on the CFL vs. incandescent is very easy to compute.
Compare the wattage of the old bulb vs. that of the CFL. Then calculate how many hours per month the bulb is on (average). Then see what you pay per KW hour on your monthly electric bill. For most in NJ it is about 15 cents per KWH + $2.27 delivery charge.
So if you had 5 100 watt bulbs that on average were turned on 4 hours per day, they would use (500 x 4) or 2 KW of electricity per day. Times 30 days in the month = 60 KW or $9 per month.
Now if you replaced these former 100 watt bulbs with CFLs which are approximately 65% more efficient, than you are talking using 35 watts instead of 100 or reducing your $9 charge to $3.15.
Of course, cut your 1300 microwave use or 1750 watt hair dryer user by a couple of minutes a day and you’ll see some really huge savings.
Of course you can’t discount the fact that these CFL bulbs last 8-15 times longer than incandescent and the mercury pollution is a drop in the bucket compared to what burning coal emits in the way of mercury.
“I’m just glad I had Seven and Three!”
KL,
Congrats! You’re buying.
Nice article here = talks about higher commodities prices and demand destruction.
http://www.energybulletin.net/39852.html
#67 Thanks for the “Post of the Day Award”! I’m beaming :)
“i expect today dow will drop 300 pts.”
bi,
Please, don’t jinx me.
sync,
Under contract
grim #77,
Awesome, thanks. This unit wasn’t on the market very long at all so I suspect they were priced right! Thanks again.
The solution to all of our energy woes is to simply invade more countries.
Re CFL cleanup
If one breaks in your house, you should open all the windows and leave the house for 15 minutes or more. Then come back in, sweep it up, double bag and it either put it in the regular trash or wherever your town/county tells you to put them.
If it breaks on carpet, unlikely, try to get as much up with sweeping. If you have to vacuum, replace the vacuum bag and double bag the old one.
Store all waste outside until garbage day or you find where to take it.
Here’s how to find out where to take the waste or burnt out bulbs:
http://www.epa.gov/bulbrecycling/
60 starting over
That’s awesome. It’s so much fun to see your bills go down, isn’t it? I think that’s the best part of trying to go “green” at home.
54
On dying and being green, make sure you don’t get all that formaldehyde pumped into you, super bad for the earth, seeps into the groundwater.
bi,
Did you load up on SIRI stock yet? Lots of analyst predicting FCC approval for merger with XMSR.
John #50
Wait till the Dems get in office next year. You’ll see solar power incentives popping up, driving demand.
Solar power products are getting more slick by the day. I forgot the name of the company, but “they” were able to produce solar panels that resemble typical vinyl siding. The more sexy these become the more widely used they will be.
Any inf. on MSL 2476730 (203 Hamden Rd) would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks!
With regards to fluorescent bulbs – wait until LED technology takes off. These use a fraction of what fluorescents use and will basically last forever.
Has anyone noticed if American made products are now substantially cheaper than similar imports? I’ve noticed it with some cars but don’t know of anything else that is made in the USA. Thanks.
re:#84
Not sure if this is what you were referring to but here are two solar technologies; one is solar plastic, the other is solar “paint”
http://www.konarka.com/
http://www.scientificblogging.com/jane_poynter/inkjet_printable_solar_panels_really
86
LEDs give off a nicer light too, but they are still so pricey.
clott,
I dont expect to be able to time the market bottom. some say noone can do it, some say only the best can. While i may not be able to time the bottom, i may be able to aim for an “area target”, i.e aim for the bottom, begining of upturn. This is not my only consideration though. My timing as well as any one elses has to account personal considerations in relation to what is driving your desire to buy. My overall goal is to minize negative market impacts in relation to a potential home purchase driven by my purchasing gudielines. This means that i am not trying to time the exact bottom to minimize price. i am trying to maximize housing expediture efficeny while minizing negative impacts from the current market decline
John,
Some people want a shiney new mercedes, some want a 500″ plazma; iam a an engineer and a tech geeck and want to include certain tech in my home. I am not trying to save the trees, the dolphins or anything else. the difference is that my “toys” may/should actually save me money in the long term instead of being net money sinks.
Clot 63,
You brought back memories of my first year of marriage. I told my husband back then that I could bet on football (with the points) with the same accuracy rate or better than him as him,”the football expert”. I set up a chart and every sunday we made our picks, I am sure you know who won the season. I even went as far as to tell him how I based each pick. Sometimes it was the uniform color, sometimes alphabetical, sometimes even win loss records.
Needless to say we don’t do that anymore. But I do chart his & the kids suicide pools and whatever bets they come up with. I stay out of it. They are afterall the experts.
KL
In all fairness 7&3 were my husbands boxes, but the money…. well, that’s mine (-;
Cindy Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Are we going to borrow the $153B for the stimulus package from China to put in the hands of Americans so they can go out and spend it on Chinese-made products?
C: hasn’t this been an ongoing implementation since 2004….I guess it is being formalized now….can be sell BOC some preferred stock in Uncle Sam instead?
They are very pricey, but the TCO over the long term is probably less than incandescent or fluorescent bulbs. No mercury either!!
83#, 50bps, sorry i would refrain myself talking individual stocks (not etfs).
The $3 trillion Bush’s proposes spending in 2009 would be the first time that milestone has been reached. Bush also presided over the first budget to hit $2 trillion, in 2002. It took the government nearly 200 years to reach the first $1 trillion budget, which occurred in 1987 during the Reagan administration.
One would think real inflation must have been higher then reported through the period of budget doubling and tripling.
John Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 10:32 am
You guys crack me up with your energy savings “green” houses. Who cares. Turn your heat down, wear some long johns, cauck up all the holes in your house, add some instalation and replace your over 15 year old wall ACs with energy star models.
The payback on that green stuff is many many years and when you sell your house if the buyer gives you 30 cents on the dollar you will be lucky.
SOLAR IS DEAD. The IPO pipeling for alt energy has dried up. Lots of pie in the sky stuff that is cool, but bull. Hey I love when Leonardo De Capri, flies a private jet cross country instead of getting on an empty seat on a commerical flight and they takes a pirus the three blocks from his hotel to the movie opening cause he is “green”.
JJ: one your better ones….
Many, Many years of being a Giants’ fan… the family tradition goes back to the Polo Grounds. This run, this year, was the sweetest of all.
I’m surprised that people aren’t investing more into arc-technologies like metal halide. Metal halides are more efficient than CFL and LED at this point. While cheaper than LED, ballasts tend to be very expensive. This means building light fixtures indended for halide lamps (available, but rare). If your goal is to mimic sunlight, with good color reproduction, halide is your best bet.
Unfortunately, these bulbs take quite a while to start up and stay lit. They would be a very poor choice of constant on/off use.
From what I’ve seen with LED, we’ve very, very far away from LED being viable for home lighting. At this point I believe they are less efficient than CFL. Surprisingly, they throw off an amazing amount of heat when you move towards the higher wattages.
I’ve played with the Luxeon Star 5w LEDs, without proper heat sinking, they’ll burn themselves out quickly. Heat sink size is so large that packing these things into a compact package with enough wattage to light a room will be a challenge.
At some $30 a piece, it would take $90 worth of LEDs to get to 15 watts, at which point a $3 13w CFL would still put out more light.
grim Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 10:48 am
We converted to all CFL lighting last year (everything but the ‘fridge), only anecdotal but it seemed to cut our electric usage quite a bit. But I’m now told that I’m poisoning the environment with mercury. Oh bother.
grim: the interim CEO of Vonage used to live in my house….he and his family were from Arizona. EVERY LIGHT BULB IN THE HOUSE WAS 100 WATT???????? I’m even talking bathroom vanity with three sockets and high-hats in the kitchen. It was like being in a french fryer. I went to Lowe’s and bought a sack of 40 watts. I checked the YOY electric bill, and shook my head. I am still waiting on the CFL conversion….
rhymingrealtor Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
To all you Giants fans out there
You deserve a great big cheer!
But for those of us non fans like me
I’m just glad I had Seven and Three!
Even though I don’t like sports, and I don’t like George Bush, looks like I’m getting a much needed new Dining Room table compliments of both the above.
KL
WELL DONE
bi (93)-
“…sorry i would refrain myself talking individual stocks (not etfs).”
Thank you for refraining yourself.
training in Orlando. Three classmates are local. First subject they mentioned?
How bad re is here. All want out but can’t sell. Two have neighbors who are upside-down by 100k or more.
Frightening
Sign of a sonambulent real estate market:
We’re now talking about lightbulbs.
#60
I have wanted to use a power strip but the thought of having to reprogram channels/timers for TVs, DVD recorders, stove, etc. every time I turn them back on has stopped me. I do turn off the computers, monitors and printer.
clot:
GOOG and Gold jumped the shark?
Just sayin’….ya gotta be out front of this junk…..
Using such comments as a tool for investment is the equivalent of using Bill Belichek as a role model for social grace…..
ChiFi (98)-
What kind of bulbs do you think Tangelo Mozilo has in his house?
Clotpoll Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
ChiFi (98)- What kind of bulbs do you think Tangelo Mozilo has in his house?
Large onion variety….
Green put me in an ethical delimna last night, one of those stupid CFC bulbs blew out last night, there is all kinds of toxic stuff in there so I can’t recycle it and there is some crazy STOP program to drop off that type of hazardish stuff but that requires me blowing an hour of my time and a gallon of gas to do. Then I quickly realized it is super bowl sunday, with all my nasty buffolo wings and half eaten burgers I could shove the CFC bulb in my regular trash and cross my fingers I don’t posion someone years from now. Being green is so tough!!!
BTW how come the Dad of the Giants Q-back was nowhere to be seen last night. I would have been in the booth with my one son watching my other son win the superbowl. I
#97
Yea I’ve read that about LEDs. There was some advancement made in LED technology is Europe somewhere (I’m thinking Scotland) that will make them more viable for home use – but still a ways to go. As for metal halide – are these aka HIDs?
Has anyone experimented with solatubes for daylighting?
ChiFi (104)-
Gold is just basing. Great time to buy more on the dips. There is nowhere else to be when the Bergabe Plan is exposed as treason. GOOG, I don’t care much about, mainly because I’m lucky enough to be averaged in way below today’s level. If it goes to $460, I’m stopped out.
Disclaimers galore. I spent all last night at a Super Bowl party listening to people call me a wacko and a survivalist.
more of the FED monkeying with numbers? how to hide 30 Bln.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/02/fed-changes-really-scary-fed-charts.html
Is there a way to find out Mortgage records for a given property (I have all the information, owner, address, tax info, Old purchase price, etc.)?
tx
Thought you guys might get a laugh from
this…………
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivp4YqGCI-s
I hope the link works.
Looking forward to meeting all of you
this week.
As for metal halide – are these aka HIDs?
Has anyone experimented with solatubes for daylighting?
HID, yes. Different, however, from mercury (ugly green-blue) and sodium (ugly yellow-orange) bulbs.
I’ve seen a number of aquarists that have used Solatubes as supplemental lighting for indoor coral aquaculture ops. The work very well in northern areas where traditional glazed greenhouses would be too inefficient in the winter months.
They are suprisingly bright on a summer day, just about useless when it is cloudy/overcast.
#111
Couple of good sources of data:
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=monm&passwd=data&district=1301&mode=11
http://mcclerkweb.co.morris.nj.us/or_wb1/or_sch_1.asp
Dan,
Certain counties make those records available online, for others you need to visit the clerk and request a copy.
Grim;
Unmoderate 114? links to public data…
grim Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Has anyone experimented with solatubes for daylighting?
HID, yes. Different, however, from mercury (ugly green-blue) and sodium (ugly yellow-orange) bulbs.I’ve seen a number of aquarists that have used Solatubes as supplemental lighting for indoor coral aquaculture ops. The work very well in northern areas where traditional glazed greenhouses would be too inefficient in the winter months.
They are suprisingly bright on a summer day, just about useless when it is cloudy/overcast.
grim: you are such a freakshow geekshow…
Chi/Clot,
Gold [Apr] rallied over $340 from 1/01/07. A $40 retracement and it’s over? Technically it can pull back to its 200 day mov avg, $755 [I pray] and still be in an uptrend.
All disclaimers.
#110 Clotpoll
Wacko?Did you bring your grenade launcher to the Super Bowl Party?
From the AP via Forbes:
Moody’s adjusts CDO loss assumptions
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said Monday it revised its loss assumptions for collateralized debt obligations originated in 2006.
So-called CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine slices of debt and are sold to investors. Many CDOs are backed by mortgages, especially subprime mortgages given to customers with poor credit history.
As those mortgages have increasingly defaulted in recent months, ratings agencies have worried the CDOs will also default. That has also forced banks to reduce the value of the securities.
Closed homes sales in Monmouth County for the month of January:
2004- 404
2005- 362
2006- 367
2007- 357
2008- 215
njc,
Wow..
JB [123],
Wow is right. A 40% decline, compared to 2007.
Are there any towns in northern/central NJ where sales volume has either increased or remained stable (say no more than a 5% decrease) YoY from last Jan to this one?
Just wait until the Spring!!!!
What do you do if you are underwater on your house? You walk away. http://www.youwalkaway.com/
1. We will stop your mortgage company from calling you.
2. You will immediately know the exact amount of days you have to live in your house payment free. … We also will notify you if the lender is taking longer than expected subsequently giving you more time in your home payment free.
3. You will be enrolled in our affiliate credit repair plan. They have removed thousands of foreclosures from their clients credit reports.
4. You get a personal consultation with one of our highly experienced Real Estate Attorneys making sure the lender followed the law perfectly. If they did not, you may have a case against them.
It’s about to become “acceptable” to stop paying your mortgage simply because you are underwater.
People are going to realize that they can sell their credit score in exchange for their mortgage balance. It will be the trade of a lifetime for millions of people.
http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2008/01/you-walk-away.html
sync,
You run into sample size issues when you try drilling down to a town level on a month by month basis.
You really need to aggregate over a larger area or time period to smooth out the volatility.
For a town level analysis, I’d suggest aggregating by quarters.
sync,
You piqued my interest.
I’m looking at the Otteau Q4 reports right now.
I should qualify #122 stats are according to the Monmouth County MLS.Does not include FSBOs.
Rumson had more closings(8)in January ’08 than Jan ’07(6) on the Monmouth MLS.
grim,
Since you’re looking at Otteau Q4, how is Maplewood holding up?
Maplewood – Q4 At-A-Glance
Average # of Offerings/Month
2006 – 24
2007 – 27
Averate # of Sales/Month
2006 – 24.3
2007 – 19.7
Unsold Inventory
2006 – 81
2007 – 108
Projected Absorption (months)
2006 – 3
2007 – 5
Went looking for a house yesterday, wife was really interested in this older home listed at 535k, it was a disaster, needed alot of work.
Looked it up on zillow and the owners bought it last year for 466k, nothing done to it at all. This people are crazy.
One thing I noticed also that it was barley furnished, my wife said they must be poor. I said NO, they probably both have good jobs, but mortgaged this home 100% and now cannot afford the payments
My new installment for the NJ RE Report “What are they smoking?” section. I comb primarily the Summit, Chatham & Millburn areas. So another member to the previous listings:
MLS#: 2471164
MLS#: 2470952
where the sellers are a bit absurd in their asking prices.
MLS#: 2484053
I look at MLS#: 2476731 and these guys are listing for their 2006 $875k buying price. If prices are down say 7% from last years prices than plus a potential 7-10% more down this year, than this property when sold could be in the under $750k category as a “Comp Killer”, but not a “Lowball!”. If the seller on this property is smart they cut bait around $800k and beat the other sellers instead of languish through the selling season. The three listings above will definitely be in the “Lowball!” category. I’m thinking if they sell it’s around the 30% lowball category.
Well until sellers and the market becomes more reasonable, I remain stuck between a rock & a hard place. Thank god, I now know longer have to try to convince my wife that the market is crazy and not me. She actually sees me in a better light and I’m just not her nitwit stubborn husband.
From MarketWatch:
Credit standards tightening at most banks: Fed survey
Most banks tighten lending standards for consumer loans
Most banks tighten standards on commercial real estate loans
Most banks expect loan quality to worsen
From MarketWatch:
Banks put squeeze on credit, Fed survey says
Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the 17-year history of the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Banks expect more delinquencies and charge offs for most types of loans to consumers and businesses, the survey said. Banks said they were tightening their lending standards in response to weaker economy, reduced tolerance of risk, and decreased liquidity in secondary markets. The survey backs up the Federal Open Market Committee’s comments last week that credit conditions had tightened considerably, a factor that led to the FOMC to slash interest rates by an unprecedented 125 basis points in two weeks
KB Home plunged $2.83, or 9.8 percent, to $25.92. Chief Financial Officer Domenico Cecere sold 80,000 shares of the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
grim, cool. Find any bright spots yet?
From the Fed:
The January 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
In the January survey, significant numbers of domestic respondents reported that they had tightened their lending standards on prime, nontraditional, and subprime residential mortgages over the past three months; the remaining respondents noted that their lending standards had remained basically unchanged. About 55 percent of domestic respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages, up from about 40 percent in the October survey.2 Of the thirty-nine banks that originated nontraditional residential mortgage loans, about 85 percent reported a tightening of their lending standards on such loans over the past three months, compared with about 60 percent in the October survey.3 Finally, five of the seven banks that originated subprime mortgage loans noted that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans, a proportion similar to that in the October survey.4
About 60 percent of domestic respondents, on net, indicated that demand for prime residential mortgages had weakened over the past three months, and 70 percent of respondents, on net, noted weaker demand for nontraditional and subprime mortgage loans over the same period. The net fractions reporting weaker demand for each of the three types of mortgage loans increased relative to the October survey.
About 60 percent of domestic respondents indicated that they had tightened their lending standards for approving applications for revolving home equity lines of credit over the past three months. Regarding demand, about 35 percent of domestic banks, on net, reported that demand for revolving home equity lines of credit had weakened over the past three months.
And why is it bad that banks tighened standards? It will hurt 2008 income a bit but it is not income if it is just bad loans to be recorded at a big profit in 2008 that becomes a big write off in 2009. The banks have enough bad loans in the seasoning process that they don’t need new ones. Mark my words by 2012, 2006 MBS will be a high quality bond, the people who want to refinance will have done so, the people who have gone broke will have gone broke and you will have the core of people who live there till the undertaker takes them away with a good chunk of equity. The banks have a long way to go to 2012 with all that 2005,2006,2007 nasty MBS on their books, they should tighten like crazy for two years till that toxic stuff gets seasoned.
Plus what is tightening anyhow? No more liar loans and 120% LTV?
John – “Plus what is tightening anyhow? No more liar loans and 120% LTV?”
Well put… I see in the commercial side banks are going back to fairly standard practice for a couple years ago, whereas up until mid 2007 it was still a free for all. Commercial RE will be going down soon as well with this “tightening” or to better put it “normalizing” lending standards.
#133 Hard Place:
Wow!, you are right in saying ‘what are they smoking?”.
It would be interesting to find out if these ‘dream’ properties sell and start a new section called “the sucker of the month”
Plus what is tightening anyhow? No more liar loans and 120% LTV?
95 is the new 120
57 grim
“But I’m now told that I’m poisoning the environment with mercury.”
You were misled:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp#Mercury_emissions
“A June 2007 article calculated that the overall mercury emission by CFLs is less than the mercury released into the atmosphere by coal-fired power generation for series of equivalent incandescent lamps over the same period.[38] Of course, not all electricity is coal-fire generated, but the mercury from spent CFLs in landfills is not released into air, and with proper disposal, will not be released into the subsurface or groundwater in the foreseeable future.
Although they make up only 19% of power generation in Canada,[39] Coal power plants are “the largest uncontrolled industrial source of mercury emissions in Canada”.[40] According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), (when coal power is used) the mercury released from powering an incandescent lamp for five years exceeds the total of (a) the mercury released by powering a comparably luminous CFL for the same period and (b) the mercury contained in the lamp.[41] It should be noted, however, that the “EPA is implementing policies to reduce airborne mercury emissions. Under regulations issued in 2005, coal-fired power plants will need to reduce their emissions by 70% by 2018.”[42] In places like Canada where 81% of power generation is from sources other than coal fired plants, the use of these bulbs effectively increases the net amount of mercury potentially available to the environment, especially if they are not disposed of in an environmentally conscious manner.”
Guess what is the largest source of power generation in China?
Coal
#144
Cardboard hot dogs?
Hot Sauce? Bicycle? MeNoKnowAnswer?
Stu Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Guess what is the largest source of power generation in China?
50
Your advice below is dead on. These are some of the “greenest” things everyone can do. You don’t need to go off the grid etc. to make a difference. It’s all those things our parents did in the name of thriftiness that make a difference.
“Turn your heat down, wear some long johns, cauck up all the holes in your house, add some instalation and replace your over 15 year old wall ACs with energy star models.”
Another easy thing to do is to support clean power in NJ. It may cost a bit more though.
http://www.njcleanenergy.com/residential/programs/cleanpower-choice/new-jersey-cleanpower-choice-program
On CFLs, you can put them in the regular trash. It’s better to take them to the central disposal places, but not all communities have that. Just double bag it and make sure it stays outside until trash day. From what I’ve read, yes, some mercury will go into the landfill, but overall, the amount is still a lot less than all of the mercury that would have been spouted into the environment from the inefficient regular light bulbs.
#131
Thank you grimster!
So our realtor from last spring called me this morning. The first house he showed us in Oceanport is coming back on the market. Last year the owner had it listed for $440,000 before taking it off the market. Our realtor thinks we can get it for $385,000 before it hits the MLS. Me thinks I’ll wait. Does say something about the change in expectations that sellers have.
I see Stu beat me to it at 73.
I recently heard that the “stimulus package” will also raise the limit for FHA loans to roughly $730,000. My understanding is that these loans only require a 3% downpayment. Does anyone know if this is accurate? If so, I would think this could significantly stabilize local RE.
91
“I told my husband back then that I could bet on football (with the points) with the same accuracy rate or better than him as him,”the football expert”. I set up a chart and every sunday we made our picks, I am sure you know who won the season. I even went as far as to tell him how I based each pick. Sometimes it was the uniform color, sometimes alphabetical, sometimes even win loss records.”
KL, your husband is a great man, kind and patient and forbearing. You, on the other hand, are CRUEL!!!! :)
Your husband is a genius!!!!!!!!! He tricked you into letting him watch every football game all season!!!!!!!
njpatient Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
91
“I told my husband back then that I could bet on football (with the points) with the same accuracy rate or better than him as him,”the football expert”. I set up a chart and every sunday we made our picks, I am sure you know who won the season. I even went as far as to tell him how I based each pick. Sometimes it was the uniform color, sometimes alphabetical, sometimes even win loss records.”
KL, your husband is a great man, kind and patient and forbearing. You, on the other hand, are CRUEL!!!! :)
coast (120)-
Nah. Never know when somebody from the gubmint is at one of these parties. Gotta keep that stuff quiet.
97 gary
when I woke up this morning I realized the question to your answer and felt like an idiot.
bi-
Where are you? XHB’s really on fire today. :(
njp,
I had an energy, power and transportation course back in my undergrad. It was one of the coolest classes I ever had.
MagLev, fusion (hot) and Hydrogen based transport was all the rage back then. I even toured the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab and was surprised that much of the lab was running on Macs.
Did you know that the temperature of the core of our sun is actually created there.
To generate the power needed, they actually have these gargantuan flywheels mounted horizontally to generate the power needed for the fusion reaction. They have to mount them horizontally for if one ever broke off, it would probably roll into the Atlantic or the Delaware River had they been mounted vertically. This way if they break off, it would only spin like a top.
I am still convinced that the best solution to Peak Oil is some kind of combination of geothermal power used to generate hydrogen.
Solar and wind is still pretty hopeless from a cost benefit standpoint.
Learned of the hybrid engine fallacy back then too. I hope everyone realizes that by driving a hybrid you are reducing the cost of fossil fuels for our gross polluting neighbors (China) who will be more likely to burn more oil as it will become even more cheaper for them to do so.
Nice to see SocGen had an American on the board, to show them how to do things right:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Securities and Exchange Commission is examining stock sales by an American board member of Societe Generale, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
The SEC inquiry is investigating stock sales investor Robert Day and two foundations linked to him made days before the French bank announced a $7 billion loss caused by a rogue trader. A spokesman for Day said he had promised to cooperate with any investigations.
In a story on its Web site, The Journal cited unnamed people familiar with the matter.
The Journal also said the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn, N.Y., had launched a criminal investigation related to Societe Generale, citing a person familiar with the matter, saying its precise focus wasn’t immediately clear.
#157 Clot
Are you cherry picking his calls…. :*)
Skep said – “My understanding is that these loans only require a 3% downpayment.”
Where did you hear that? And what bank is gonna loan ya $709K for just 21K down?
If this was true, I would not be so heavy into shorting real estate. I would take every penny I have and short the banks.
And although XHB has pulled back some today, it is still about 3/4% above where bi said to buy it ;)
PGC (160)-
No more than he does. The XHB long is one of his most laughable calls, so I keep an eye on it.
Stu (161)-
Currently, FHA loans only require a 3% downpayment. Under special circumstances, the DP can be as little as 2%. The DP is also usually siphoned back to the buyer as a seller concession for points, prepaids and closing costs. It is, effectively, 100% financing.
Stu (161)-
Just in the interest of disclosure, I am short XHB.
Sleeping fine at night. That 3/4% should evaporate any day now.
I haven’t done any FHA, but I was always under the impression they were strict with DTI. I’m trying to find the NJ DTI, but if it is anything like the 29% figure I’m seeing quoted, that would mean to get a loan of $700k would require an income somewhere around $170k.
With an income of $170k, I’m sure he could walk into Hudson today and come out with a loan near that amount.
Clot,
Then why the heck did I put 20% down and lock up so much of my cash losing the opportunity to generate more wealth from it?
What kind of qualifications does one need to qualify for one of these 3% FHA loans?
njpatient [156],
I just had a feeling that the term “18 – 1” was going to be part of Giants’ lore… sort of one for the ages.
grim (165)-
Pretty sure the DTI in NJ is well-over 30%, but don’t hold me hard and fast to that.
All I know is, the processors in my office call FHA “the original subprime”. Every once in a while, I hear somebody let out a whoop of joy over getting some sort of slop thru the FHA qual process.
Grim,
I’m pretty close to those numbers and did qualify for a 700K loan, but why the heck would I risk my home with such a large mortgage? What if I was laid off? I guess only if I felt I could definitely make more than 6% off of my investments.
Wow this country is completely screwed!
Stu (166)-
The current FHA loan ceiling is 363K. FHA loans also carry MPI (FHA’s version of PMI) for pretty much the whole life of the loan.
It’s the right product for the right kind of borrower, but it’s not for everybody. However, with a 700K ceiling…
There are rumors that the Feds are asking IB’s and broker dealers to review their IT rentention poicies. They are looking to have the companies extend the amount of time they hold email backups etc. This may be a warning to ensure that when the fed coms asking, they better be able to deliver the data and “Our backups wern’t working” will not be an accpetable answer. I think this is a little bit late as after Enron, most IT shops tightened the policies and don’t hold sensitive data such as email over 45-60 days anyway unless they are required by a regulatory body.
I think the end result of this will be another knee jerk reaction such as Sarbanes/Oxley (SOX). This was badly thought out legislation that only benefited auditors who were the cause of the problem in the first place.
Gary [167],
Better than Go-Go-Gogalak?
You going to the parade tomorrow?
Great…..remember, they don’t call BRIC the “emerging markets” for nothing you know…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQo7fEa9Q4ck&refer=home
Clot,
If you have to pay a non-deductible PMI (MPI) for the length of the loan, then I don’t see how raising the limit would help anyone do better than to delay their eventual foreclosure. The bottom line is that if you can’t afford it, then you shouldn’t buy it.
Do you really think our government will try to reignite the subprime hell we’re in now, but only this time insure that it spreads to former prime candidates?
That would be ludicrous.
Talking to some people who are recent relocations from the UK. They are trying to buy and are having big issues getting a mortgage. They are looking at a minimum 25% down payment. They also have to jump through hoops with HSBC to get their UK credit history qualified so that they can get a mortgage over here. As they are now working over here, they would look to pay a mortgage in the US with dollars earned here that funding the purchase out of the UK.
If these people can’t buy in Manhatten, theyn I don’t know where all these foreign buyers for NYC real estate are going to come from.
#171 – PGC – I spent a while working very closely in that end of the IT world. Since Enron/SarbOx IT shops have, almost universally, extended their retention policies out to 7+ years and not shortened them. The potential financial consequences in fines/loosing a case is far outweighed by storage costs from Iron Mountain.
This particular field (data retention) has been a little noticed but very lucrative for the past few years.
Some firms (think 270 Park) have gone so far as to retain periodic low level (HDD surface scans from Encase) snap shots of trader’s and key personnel workstations in case they are needed. Storage costs were a secondary consideration.
#176 – I can’t type…
That should read “…potential financial consequences in fines/loosing a case far outweighs storage costs from Iron Mountain“
#176 toshiro_mifune
The traders desktops and voice systems are covered under the SEC 7 year coverage. Other parts of the company (such as corporate) don’t fall under the SEC Regs. I think when the fed start looking at the links between the IB’s and the third party fund managers, they may find some holes in the coverage.
I agree on the likes of Iron Mountain. I just renegotiated my contract with them. It was an interesting discussion on how much I pay them vs how much service I actually get
I made some on Comdisco after 9/11 and before they went bankrupt.
Stu (174)-
The only motive I can see in the Fannie/Freddie/FHA new ceiling proposals is the bailout of banks.
I agree Clot and see it the same way, but wouldn’t expect to see the limits increased unless the problem truly becomes a prime problem vs. a sub-prime or alt-a issue. By the time this occurs, I’ll be long out of SRS ;)
Clotpoll Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Stu (174)- The only motive I can see in the Fannie/Freddie/FHA new ceiling proposals is the bailout of banks.
clot: I’m all for being cynical, but honestly, it is window dressing and ultimately an opportunity for pandering buffoons in government to self-identify.
If you consider that other than credit (life blood of economy) and real estate, things are rocking. I would be more than happy that we give free handouts to a bunch of banks where it might do some good versus allowing some other embarassing display of psuedo-policy causing massive distortions.
I WILL SAY ONE THING…..I been meaning to mention this opinion for about a week, but I’ve been busy.
We have MASSIVE stimulus being placed into the credit markets. I would expect that in certain circles, we can see some V!agra-tion of the Real Estate markets. What does this mean? What should have happened over the course of the next 6 months may be pushed toward the end of the year. I think February and March are going to be better than advertised at certain price points. However, just as the big bonuses last year created a small and fleeting bit of mojo, we will have a bit of activity to satisfy the impatient…..if you are a seller, step-up and get out….you have been given a mini-reprieve, don’t be a fool twice…
My question is whether the average potential buyer is not prone to buy right now due to inability to get the right kind of financing (i.e., very low down payment, low interest rate), or whether it’s because he/she is aware that RE is dropping and is afraid to lose money.
if it’s a financing issue, then the higher conforming limits could prop up the housing market
Hey what happened to 300 points down today?
17a3 17a4 books and records recordments are quite clear on record retention requirements. WORM baby!!
#182 Perhaps slow the price declines temporarily, but stop them? I don’t think so.
182 skep
For me, one of those is half the reason
I don’t want to catch a falling knife, but as a general matter, prices are too high.
I expect prices to fall not because I expect them to fall, but because they are unreasonable.
“We have MASSIVE stimulus being placed into the credit markets. I would expect that in certain circles, we can see some V!agra-tion of the Real Estate markets. ”
As a practical matter, chi, how do you see this happening. Can you describe the sort of buyer who is helped by the massive stimulus being placed in credit markets, and how it helps them? I just don’t see it. Frankly, I barely see it helping the banks.
183#, i have to wait to see it tomorrow. the trend is definitely going down…
SLM Counterparty Credit Rating Cut at S&P, May Be Lowered More
By Robert Greene
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — SLM Corp.’s counterparty credit rating was lowered to BBB-/A-3 from BBB+/A-3 at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, and the student lender may be cut further.
“The decision to leave Sallie Mae on CreditWatch Negative reflects the possibility of the announced commitments for $31 billion of 364-day financing from a consortium of banks still being subject to various conditions,” S&P said today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Greene in Washington at
“Frankly, I barely see it helping the banks.”
patient [186],
It’s the tonic the banks require. The yield curve is now back to a positive slope. The fed’s plan is to continue to steepen the curve. It’s the banks bail out. How does this help John Q? It doesn’t. Unless John is a prime borrower, with a dp. Fantasy financing is finished. The banks will hoard cash. As the fed loosens, credit is tightening.
njpatient– Of course, you are more informed about prices than most people. Most people I think look at prices for houses like they do for other consumer purchases– the asking price is the real price, the anchor. The fact that asking prices are coming down at all is attention getting since this has not happened in recent memory. I guess I am saying that I’m not sure the average buyer has a handle on how to judge whether something is overpriced
HSBCDirect down to 3.55%
njpatient Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
“We have MASSIVE stimulus being placed into the credit markets. I would expect that in certain circles, we can see some V!agra-tion of the Real Estate markets. ”
As a practical matter, chi, how do you see this happening. Can you describe the sort of buyer who is helped by the massive stimulus being placed in credit markets, and how it helps them? I just don’t see it. Frankly, I barely see it helping the banks.
patient: The banks? Review stock prices from mid-Jan onward for my retort. You will see it reflected in calendar 2Q08/3Q08 results.
This region is in a state of economic binarism (made up my own word)…..you are either totally f-ed or you are not. Those “are nots” are going to have their patience tested, and they will wade in…..I say it will be available until the end of March at least. Keep an open mind…..people with facts can shoot down this opinion. I am just stating something that makes a heck of a lot of theoretical sense to me.
At this juncture, listening to clot’s and KL’s anecdotes, and pret’s inconoclast of the NJ RE Blog opinions, are going to flesh things out in the forum for me.
To be clear….you can now see with 2-3 years observation why the “bust” cycle in real estate takes so long……you have stickiness in pricing and further stimulus to prop things up. The stock market can get smashed to pieces in a matter of 6-18 months. This real estate issue is going to be here until 2010 or later….
What do you do when it is too dangerous to downgrade?
Change the scale!
Wouldn’t it just be cheaper to add a AAAA (Quadruple A) rating on the top of the existing securities, and upgrade those worthy of the the highest rank?
Moody’s Considers Substituting Numbers for Ratings
Moody’s Investors Service is considering a new ratings system based on numbers for structured- finance securities that would abandon the letter grades created by founder John Moody about a century ago.
Moody’s in a letter today asked investors for comments on five options it is reviewing to improve ratings including a numerical scale and a designation of “.sf” to differentiate a structured finance ranking from a corporate credit grade.
The ratings company is also requesting investor comment on designations indicating higher risk that a security may be downgraded by more than one level. New York-based Moody’s said it may decide to leave the ratings scale alone and plans to disclose more information through research.
“Some public authorities and some market participants have called for additional steps,” Moody’s analysts led by Richard Cantor wrote in the letter. “They have asked whether the credit rating agencies should differentiate ratings assigned to structured products from those assigned to corporate and government issuers.”
Clot,
The FHA $730,000 ceiling is not for all areas? Its my understanding each county and state has its own ceiling. Do I have it right?
Thanks
Chicagofinance #192,
“This region is in a state of economic binarism”
Binarism is a cute word. Could you describe it in more detail?
I see a separation taking place, in that the NY metro area’s population is separating into 2 socioeconomic classes. One class is made up of >$200k households. The other class is made up of poor people who serve them.
The area’s middle class is redistributing itself to places offering more freedom and economic growth, such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Redistributionist policies = redistributed middle class.
189 BC
I understand how it’s supposed to help the banks (I think the general public does, hence the stock price bump that chifi identified), but what I was expressing was that I see a situation that is bad enough that this will not help in a meaningful way (public perception and stock price bumps aside).
chi – “This real estate issue is going to be here until 2010 or later” I couldn’t agree more – I’ve been saying for a long time that I expect to buy in early 2010. There’s no way we get where we’re headed earlier than then, and considerable possibility that it will take considerably longer.
194 grim
one of the great farces of all time.
Anyone any thoughts on which is better.
A credit at closing or a lower sale price?
#183 John
I understand the books and reconds side of it. I think what they are trying to go for, is the stuff outside the scope of the regulations. The stuff that would have gone into the proverbial “Enron Shredder”. IF the feds ask for emails and they are on your servers you have to provide them. If you have a company policy that deletes all email after 60 days you can quite happily say you don’t have them.
What amazes me is how 1st Bush justified taxing 50% of Social Security Payments, followed by 1st Clinton justified in taxing 85% of Social Security Payments, when Social Security Contributions were already taxed to begin with. It’s not the double taxation that bothers me as much as the inference that I am stupid enough to believe it hasn’t occurred. Two sides of the same coin. Doesn’t really matter if you get kicked by an elephant or a donkey.
Are there any professional services who help around with foreclosed properties in NJ.
skep (182)-
Buyers aren’t buying for both reasons you mentioned. They can raise the conforming limit to a million and cut rates to 1%. It doesn’t matter now. Wil E is off the ledge, legs spinning in midair.
Primo episode of Gossip Girls tonight.
patient (185)-
Unreasonable, yes. But- more important- unsustainable.
Did anyone see the heckling that Corzine got in Ocean County on the subject of tolls? Very funny.
BC (189)-
“The fed’s plan is to continue to steepen the curve.”
Precisely. And, there’s still work to do in the space between overnight & 3-month T-bills.
More whackage to come.
kl (195)-
Yes, it’s going to be area-specific.
I think they have yet to blackbox the precise formula.
pgc (199)-
If it’s a significant credit that buys down the mortgage rate, I’d take the credit.
Frank (206)-
Yeah…but Corzine’s gonna make all those people leave NJ (courtesy of the Penske Express?). I think to him, that’s winning.
“(courtesy of the Penske Express?)”
Why do you think he is raising the tolls? It’s hard to get out of NJ without taking the GSP or the NJTurnpike.
Clot [207],
It’s back to basics. It’s the carrry trade to bail out the banks. On the flip side, John Q is not on the fed’s radar. As the curve steepens credit conditions will continue to tighten. We are staring down the barrel of tight credit for years ahead. The excess/slop does not get mopped up in 6 months-1year.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Reading-recession-in-bond-markets-B9P9Z?OpenDocument
Interesting read from Prudential on Real Estate:
http://www.investmentmanagement.prudential.com/media/managed/documents/pim/Prudential_USQ_Jan_08.pdf
Nice graphs too ;)
njpatient Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
but what I was expressing was that I see a situation that is bad enough that this will not help in a meaningful way (public perception and stock price bumps aside).
chi – “This real estate issue is going to be here until 2010 or later” I couldn’t agree more – I’ve been saying for a long time that I expect to buy in early 2010.
patient: I think my point is that there are people posting/reading here saying “…I’m not seeing a price reduction…” or “…all things considered, my monthly out-of-pocket is starting to look more and more like a number that I am comfortable with…”
You cannot hold yourself out as objective, and then choose to ignore examples that conflict with your market thesis. If so, you are either choosing not to be objective, or else your thesis is not robust enough. People who are experiencing something fundamentally different than you will not be appeased.
I try my darnedest not to close my mind to all possibilities. People pay me to think about this crap for them…..
Pre – Who do you know that is going to Georgia? I don’t think that’s a novel concept – the middle class has been getting squeezed out for years in NYC.
We live in close proximity to where Heath Ledger and his actress girlfriend lived. It is a ‘trendy area and when we moved her in 2004, the cost to rent was reasonable – 2000 a month for a 2 bedroom. (something like a 32 min subway to midtown on a work morning.)
Just for kicks, we looked up the rental cost of it now … you can’t get in our building ( no doorman, laundry in the basement, on a noisy street) for funder 2800.
Who the hell is going to pay 1400 a month for a 2 bedroom in brooklyn? So now you have to move to Queens or the hood, and you’ve got an even longer commute. Or, you go into Manhattan and rent an overpriced shoebox and pay even more.
The smart move (IMO) is to get that title and find a job elsewhere where you dont take too much of a paycut and quality of life (less hrs working, more space to live, etc). In our case, it is PA.
(That said, I’m such a city guy that if things go as planned, and i can buy a crash-pad studio in the city in a few years, i sure as hell would love to pull that off. A boy can dream.)
ugh i rushed that – sorry about the spelling errors and the 1400 a month was PER PERSON …
and the quality of life IMPROVES …
Bloodbath in Winter 2007 Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
(That said, I’m such a city guy that if things go as planned, and i can buy a crash-pad studio in the city in a few years, i sure as hell would love to pull that off. A boy can dream.)
BBIW07: Philly is going to be in your back pocket. If you are half as savvy as you represent, you are going to figure out how to swing that into some good times. You just have to work harder to avoid the cheeseballs, or cheesesteaks as it were….
starting and clot,
thanks for the clarification on my question this morning.
g’nite y’all!
Chifi – I’m on savvy about this stuff only because of you guys … if i never found this website, i’m swimming underwater in the negative and HATING life …
i’m taking a big chance now quitting my job to try this biz out … helps to have an understanding, smart wife
Aussies raise rates?
http://tinyurl.com/2ynocd
Bursting the House Price Bubble BBC1 Panorama 04-02-08
1 of 3
The ever increasing Realty Transfer Fee is actually an Exit Tax.
# 199
I suspect it depends on whether one is the buyer, the seller, or one of the RE agents.
For the agents, the higher selling price brings incrementally higher commissions and higher comp prices for the nextsale. For the buyer, it depends on the financing plan and philosophy regarding debt. For the seller, cash back props up comps (which, if they are not buying another place right away can hurt them), it also means paying higher commission on a lower net price, yeilding less money in the pocket than if they had just lowered the price.
Other than the satisfaction of bragging about the price they got, cash back at closing does little fore the seller.
N.J. firm moves to Bucks
A New Jersey-based company that manufactures electronic connectors and adapters has moved its headquarters to a 50,000-square-foot building in Bristol Township’s Keystone Industrial Park.
The relocation of Aries Electronics from Frenchtown to Bristol Township has already begun.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/147-02042008-1482119.html
214 chi
People pay you to interpret the movement in stock prices. People pay me to manipulate the public’s perception of stock values. We have a fundamentally different perspective on these things.
What I’m trying to express is this: At a certain point, Enron’s stock was rising. This was not evidence that the company was in good shape. It was merely evidence that the public was completely in the dark.
Just one example.
I can’t trade, and for the same reason that I can’t trade, I mostly can’t get involved in much of the substantive discussion here, so my apologies that I am limited to speaking in vague platitudes.
clot #203: I loved!! that cartoon! That image just got me chuckling! – esp since waking up after a 2 week on/off shifts in the pit! Also, saw Kathy T one of those days.
njpatient #225. What exactly do you do??
sl
any thoughts on what interest rates will do over the next year or two?