From Newsweek:
It’s Going to Get Worse
Economist David Lereah was once the housing market’s biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn’t near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall.
Let me confess at the start: I spoke with Lereah frequently during the boom, and I always found him to be a smart, thoughtful observer. Sure, his assessment of the real estate market was consistently upbeat, but that’s hardly surprising given that he served as chief spokesman for a trade organization that believes it’s always a good time to buy a home. And the truth is I feel a little sorry for the teasing he has absorbed since the housing bubble burst. Yes, he did publish a book in 2006 with the unfortunate title “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust”—but he didn’t pick the title, the same way columnists like me aren’t always thrilled by the headlines our editors put atop our stories. And while I thought it was funny when my colleague Daniel Gross and others compared Lereah to Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi information minister who repeatedly announced his army’s military successes even as U.S. tanks were overtaking the capital, I can’t help feeling bad for him. But if you judge from the blogosphere, I’m in the minority with my sympathy.
It’s been more than a year since Lereah left NAR, so I called this week to check in. It turns out he has recently set up a new firm called Reecon Advisors, which is advising Wall Street firms and institutional investors about the real estate market. “Wall Street has an intense interest in [this], because they’re looking for when is the recovery going to come, and at what point does the cycle turn,” Lereah told me.
His answer: not yet. “We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There’s still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”
Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall. According to the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller index, the average U.S. home has lost around 15 percent of its value since the market’s peak. “We’re probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I’m wrong it will be even more than that,” he says.
(emphasis added)
Scum of the earth.
Can you make salt from scum?
David Lereah – Perfect example of someone with intent to defraud consumers.
From Bloomberg:
Bank of America Urged to Reconsider Countrywide Bid
Bank of America Corp. should consider cutting the price it plans to pay for Countrywide Financial Corp. if the mortgage company’s past profits were based on bad lending practices, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer said.
“These latest revelations should make Bank of America think even harder about how they want to proceed,” the New York Democrat said in prepared remarks before a Senate hearing today on how Countrywide treats borrowers who’ve fallen behind on loans. “These practices will not be allowed to continue.”
From the AP:
Council declares: 1 affordable-housing unit per 5 new homes, 16 jobs
New Jersey wants 115,000 new homes for low-income people by 2018.
The Council on Affordable Housing Tuesday adopted new rules that detail how many low-cost homes each community must provide.
The revisions come after a January court decision invalidated previous rules that proposed 63,000 new affordable homes.
The new rules would require an affordable home be among every five newly built homes, and an affordable home be provided for every 16 jobs, in a municipality.
Hey dooshbag, f*ck you and your fake honesty. You encouraged a lot of people to make decisions based on your “analysis” which resulted in foreclosure and bankruptcy. What, are you feeling quilty now?
I made a fairly negative statement about his behavior. This is because I read a report this morning that described the horrific status of a large percentage of loans from 2006.
How many of these people were sold homes, in good faith, because of positive predictions during that year?
owe me a beer
#5 Grim the homes are affordable but the taxes arent.
http://www.angryrenter.com/
SAS
“David Lereah”
at least he is coming clean now, unlike some folk…from whom NJ..last name starts with O.
:)
SAS
are you next?
“Tally for April layoff notices by NJ employers: 2,577 jobs”
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2008/05/tally_for_april_layoff_notices.html
SAS
I appreciate the misattributions more….
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Marion_Barry
08 YTD hospital layoffs:
2,585 people.
If you are getting older or have relatives that are getting older. Look for overcrowded hospitals & overworked staff to care of you. Just what you wanted :)
The health care in NJ is terrible and this state should be ashamed of itself.
oh yeah… but if you are an illegal, you get to move to the front of the line.
SAS
Marion Barry is a moron.
During his stint… he and his crumb bums smuggled all sorts of hardcore drugs into the DC area. Funneled right into the black communities, which in turn led to the high murder rate. (most murders were drug related),
If you don’t think the govt smuggles drugs into this country w/ the help of the mafia, I have ocean front property in Arizona I want to sell you.
That Rev. Wright wasn’t too far off.
yup, back to RE.
SAS
“Muhlenberg, which also has 1,100 employees and 350 affiliated physicians”
doctors without hospitals!
Beazer Homes gets default notice
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/beazer-homes-gets-default-notice/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1C8407C%2D6C6D%2D44D0%2DB0BC%2DABCD9670BFD5%7D&dist=hplatest
This reads a bit like a Colin Powell apologia. I’m sure your a nice fellow, but no, you can’t have your reputation back.
bear [17],
It’s accepted at the window.
we need a new thread signal….
To the people in the previous thread who are worried about my whereabouts: please be advised that I’m sitting at my desk in New York.
New York is awesome….love being a short hop from the greatest city in the world.
Ignore the plug for real estate in NNJ.
McGinn’s an ay ess ess as well
“ut he didn’t pick the title, the same way columnists like me aren’t always thrilled by the headlines our editors put atop our stories.”
Really? Did you read the book? Was it really about how the RE market was going to crash, and it just got mis-titled by a rogue publisher?
I hear that’s what happened to Kevin Hassett, whose name nearly rhymes with a$$hat.
“To the people in the previous thread who are worried about my whereabouts: please be advised that I’m sitting at my desk in New York.”
:)
previous thread
House Hunter Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
#69 shore guy…if you look at my parents as an example, they bought in a new development in 1962 and still own the home. if you charted the gain and loss over time, there were examples of 8-10 years at a time when their home didn’t go up in value at all. Other examples where it went down a little. Just so happens it is a win win if you bought in ‘62. However, if you purchased a home in 2001 and sold in 2006 like me, you doubled your investment…guess that is why they call it timing. Minute by minute valuations associated with bubbles make people think of housing in investment terms. I sold my home to move to another school district, period.
other thread…House Hunter Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
some stories….guy I work with says a friend’s son in California, 30 years old, just lost his job at Lehman. He gets 2 years pay and the value of his last bonus. Not bad.
Other antidote: heard of a woman trying to trade in a 3yr old Ford Explorer…no place she visited will take it as a trade = value $0
“To the people in the previous thread who are worried about my whereabouts: please be advised that I’m sitting at my desk in New York.”
Pret,
Not worried, nor did I think about it.
New yummy thready goodness!