From the Press of Atlantic City:
Short sales saving more locals from foreclosure
An alternative to foreclosure for some homeowners called a short sale is becoming more common in southern New Jersey, according to attorneys who handle such transactions.
Short sales are for homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than the property is worth and need to sell the house to get their finances in order.
For it to work, the lender must agree to accept as payment for the loan what the property is currently worth rather than the higher amount borrowed to buy it.
Lenders such as banks are free to insist on getting full repayment of the loan and many do, said attorney Jeffrey P. Barnes, of Stefankiewicz and Barnes in North Wildwood.
“But it sometimes makes sense to take the market value because the bank will be putting the property up for sale anyway if it goes through foreclosure after paying thousands in attorney’s fees,” Barnes said Friday.
As an example, Barnes told of a Pennsylvania couple who bought a second home in the Wildwoods. As a result of falling real estate values, they wound up owing $50,000 more for the condo than it was worth.
The couple had hoped to rent it out but couldn’t at a price that would cover their mortgage costs, he said. And they had taken out a home equity loan for the down payment on the second home and now couldn’t keep up with all the payments.
“They got quite emotional about it. They had always paid their bills, and they didn’t know what to do. They tried whatever they could to keep it going,” Barnes said.
When their savings were depleted, they looked for a solution and pursued a short sale. Their bank allowed it and in a couple of months, they got out of the second home, he said.
From the WSJ:
Treasury and Fed Pledge Aid
For Ailing Mortgage Giants
By JAMES R. HAGERTY, DEBORAH SOLOMON and SUDEEP REDDY
July 14, 2008; Page A1
The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve, capping a weekend of high-stakes maneuvering, attempted to shore up confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by announcing a plan that placed the federal government firmly behind the battered mortgage giants.
In a statement timed to precede the opening of Asian markets Monday, as well as a closely watched auction of debt by Freddie, the Treasury said it plans to seek approval from Congress for a temporary increase in a longstanding Treasury line of credit for the two companies.
The Treasury also said it would seek temporary authority so that it could buy equity in either company “if needed” to ensure they have “sufficient capital to continue to serve their mission” of providing a steady flow of money into home mortgages. The plan, which requires congressional approval, also calls for a provision to give the Federal Reserve a “consultative role” in the process of setting capital requirements and other “prudential standards” for Fannie and Freddie.
The Fed’s Board of Governors met Sunday in Washington and voted to grant the New York Fed authority to lend to Fannie and Freddie “should such lending prove necessary,” the central bank said in a statement. The move would effectively give the two companies access to the Fed’s discount window if necessary, providing a backstop in case the firms were to face a short-term funding crisis down the road.
Whether the government should prop up troubled financial institutions has become a hot political issue in the wake of the takeover of investment firm Bear Stearns Cos. by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Critics characterized that government-engineered deal as a bailout.
This weekend’s moves constitute an attempt by the federal government to ease the potential crisis at Fannie and Freddie without intervening directly. By promising bold action if needed, officials are hoping they can instill sufficient confidence in the two companies that such intervention ultimately will prove unnecessary.
Fannie and Freddie are the nation’s dominant providers of funding for home mortgages. They buy loans made by banks, package most of them into securities, and sell many to investors all over the world. Together, they own or guarantee about $5.2 trillion of U.S. home mortgages, nearly half of all mortgages outstanding.
first!
From the WSJ:
Bank Fears Spread
After Seizure of IndyMac
By ROBIN SIDEL, DAVID ENRICH and JONATHAN KARP
July 14, 2008; Page A1
The federal government’s seizure of IndyMac Bank is deepening worries among executives, regulators and consumers about the U.S. banking industry, which is in a tightening bind following a long run of prosperity.
Banks and thrifts are struggling against a rising tide of bad loans, and it is becoming increasingly clear that some lenders won’t be able to escape. While fewer banks are expected to fail than the 834 that went under from 1990 to 1992, it will likely take several years for battered financial institutions to work through their bad loans and replenish their depleted capital.
Those gloomy scenarios could be avoided, however, if the U.S. economy and housing market rebound soon, which would help consumers and businesses that have fallen behind on their loan payments.
…
But at least for now, as the turmoil worsens, signs are emerging that consumers, who generally thought little about the safety of their deposits when times were good, are having some second thoughts. More likely than the kind of exodus of depositors that quickly sank IndyMac is what some bankers are describing as a slow-motion “walk on the bank,” which could cripple financial institutions already weakened by credit problems.
test
JB,
#4 in moderation. Rally?
I-Tulip’s 6th housing report since 2002. The first 5 were dead b*lls accurate.
“The housing market has fallen hard but it’s not time to buy, no matter what you hear. Depending on where you live it’s time to decide if you can afford not to sell before prices go lower, or grin and bear it. The choice depends on your likely future employment prospects and where you live.”
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=39709#post39709
How long will today’s rally last – a week tops???
good time to start shopping for shorts again..
FRE and FNM up 28% in pre-trading.
I was looking to be the first post on the damn string this morning and was forced to make this post twice. I don’t like being in that position. Grim, you’re supposed to have these strings started first thing in the morning. It wasn’t there when I woke up and that upset me.
Also, other posters here have been taking my damn number. Do something about that.
Anyhow, I woke up feeling very good this morning. I slept like a freahly powdered baby knowing that our government has taken care of us by doing what it needed to do to save the housing and the mortgage markets. It’s just another one of those great things that the Bush administration has done that goes unheralded
BC (4)-
Just another opportunity to get even shorter.
Got gold?
“Anyhow, I woke up feeling very good this morning.”
50.5,
Go back to bed.
Tard (9)-
“I slept like a freshly powdered baby knowing that our government has taken care of us by doing what it needed to do to save the housing and the mortgage markets.”
Take a dirt nap. Please.
You whining, sniveling Soci*list.
Clot,
The cheerleaders touted the bottom in Jan, rogue trader, and then again in March, Bear. Every rally ends with lower highs and produces lower lows. This rally will mirror those, IMO. That said, I hope it can, at minimum, produce a 5-10% run in the S&P’s.
All disclaimers.
Clot/BC-
Who are these people buying?? I mean, the bottom line is the numbers, and we all know that they are bad.
If we, who have access to far less information than all the people holding big money, can figure this out, why cant they?
Or- is this some humongous pump and dump scheme?
Here’s another guy who’s called it right, every step of the way. From Mike Morgan:
“But nothing has changed . . . Fannie and Freddie still go bust, along with hundreds of banks over the next twelve months. The only thing Paulson accomplished, was to mendaciously buy a little time for his friends and buddies to make a few more bucks and cover their tracks. Remember where Paulson came from and who belongs to his mendacious fraternity.”
http://tinyurl.com/5msto6
vic (14)-
Take a look at our own Peoples’ Republic. Merrill is ablaze, and we’re running toward it, trying to douse the flames with millions of dollars. Hell, 3-4 weeks ago, NJ’s portfolio genius decided to announce that he thought we were a little light in exposure to the financial sector, so it might be a good time to load up.
BTW, we also dumped 180 MIL into Lehman in June. That’s chump change, compared to the 400 MIL we flushed down the Citi toilet and the 300 MIL we tossed into the Merrill incinerator in January.
Public employee? Got dog food?
Clot [15],
Loved this from that post;
“If Paulson spent a week with me in the field, he’d understand why he’s making a complete jackass out of himself and his reputation.”
What a great article in the WSJ today on selling in this market. 7 points to get your house sold……number 7 being the best:
7. TAKE THE OFFER.
If any qualified buyer comes in with a reasonable offer, be prepared to accept it.
You don’t want to lose the deal by digging in your heels over a few dollars. Every real-estate office keeps records that show the percentage difference between asking and selling prices, so it’s easy to figure what’s an appropriate offer and what’s not.
Negotiate, of course, but recognize that the buyer has a lot more clout than you do. Your house, as wonderful as you think it is, is worth only as much as someone is willing to pay for it.
And that, unfortunately, will probably be a lot less than you think.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121553612650836199.html?mod=2_1581_leftbox
Is to cynical to think that gov pension fund managers are purposely racing to bottom, so politicians can blame markets for shift to 401k rather than their own untenable promises?
Will this finally bring brewing conflict between unionized pub sector employees and private sector tax payers to a head?
(9)-DUDE,
You can’t be serious. You can’t be real.
Clot,
Took a ride out to Alexander Ave in Lambertville yesterday.
Something very strange happened to the satellite radio in my car..all of a sudden every channel was playing the Sanford and Son theme song. My wife got scared and we had to turn around.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – M&T Bank Corp (MTB), a large U.S. mid-Atlantic regional bank, on Monday said second-quarter profit fell 25 percent, hurt by rising credit losses tied to residential real estate.
Net income for the Buffalo, New York-based company, whose largest investors include Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKA) (BRKB), fell to $160.3 million, or $1.44 per share, from $214.2 million, or $1.95, a year earlier.
M&T said net operating earnings fell 24 percent to $170.4 million, or $1.53 per share.
There is an article in todays WSJ titled. “Continuing Vicious Cycle of Pain In Housing and Finance Ensnares Market”. There is a graph of the housing S&P/Case Shiller home-price index for the 20 metro areas. The bubble years are considered to be from January 2002 to July 2006 when the national composite index hit its peak. From the peak the NY metro area has fallen -9.9%. If it falls another -35.4% it will hit the Jan 2002 (pre-boom) level. So I guess, if you account for what would have been historically a normal appreciation for housing I would consider another 20% drop in the NY metro area a fair point to dip you’r toes in the water. The wild card is the job losses happening in the NY metro area, I guess we can see a bigger drop in the next year. Me personally, I’ll take about 25% drop from the peak as a point to start making offers.
Money Magazine’s Best Places to Live – 2008.
Number 5 – Franklin Township N.J.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105381/America's-Best-Places-to-Live-2008
x (21)-
It’s sold. Sending the offer and package to the bank this week. The second on this house (240K, BAC) is bigger than the first (180K, Countryfried). BAC did the second over the telephone.
You can’t make this sh*t up.
x (21)-
You think 10 Alexander was a stinkbomb, wait till you see what I’ve got in the pipeline.
You won’t be thinking Sanford & Son; it’ll be more like Psycho.
Grim-You gotta stop that reinvestor guy. The X is mine, all mine. Didn’t you guys see the movie…
clot (25)
You get asking price?
Anything bad about the towns of Wayne, North Caldwell, Pequannock and Lincoln Park? We are looking for decent size house/property with affordable taxes and decent schools. This is a tough combo in Bergen County at least at the moment.
Thanks in advance for any comments.
From Bloomberg:
Fannie Mae, Freddie Rescue a `Disaster,’ Rogers Says
The U.S. Treasury Department’s plan to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an “unmitigated disaster” and the largest U.S. mortgage lenders are “basically insolvent,” according to investor Jim Rogers.
Taxpayers will be saddled with debt if Congress approves U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s request for the authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The chairman of Rogers Holdings, who in 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, also said the commodities bull market has a “long way to go.”
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each surged more than 20 percent in pre-market trading today after Paulson moved to stem a collapse in confidence in the two companies that purchase or finance almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. home loans.
“These companies were going to go bankrupt if they hadn’t stepped in to do something, and they should’ve gone bankrupt,” Rogers, 65, said from Singapore.
What is considered “decent” for a school?
idiotX Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 8:53 am
(9)-DUDE,
You can’t be serious. You can’t be real.
This is the umpteenth time this accusation has been made. Not everyone drinks the real estate terrorist koolaid. I’m as serious as a heart attack.
Grim, you’re supposed to have these strings started first thing in the morning. It wasn’t there when I woke up and that upset me.
ROFLMAO!!
Classic.
#29
Wouldn’t recommend West Essex High (North Caldwell). Too many problems – lots of bomb scares this past year. Fights between different towns that feed the district. Kids have way too much money.
Malcolm Little Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Grim-You gotta stop that reinvestor guy. The X is mine, all mine. Didn’t you guys see the movie…
Stop it. The white man stole my number from me, so now I keep my number hidden. X represents the unknown
reinvestorX,
Here’s the link to the US Patent and Trademark office
http://www.uspto.gov/
Until you register your name as a licensed trademark, you can’t claim it’s yours.
Even Lawrence Yun of the NAR would call you a delusional idiot.
#9 reinvestorx
“Also, other posters here have been taking my damn number. Do something about that.”
How dare you take my letter!! X has marked the spot for centuries!!!!!
50.5,
I would love to buy you a drink. Can you promise that you will be at the next GTG?
grim-
I saw that Jim Rogers interview on Bloomberg and he was absolutely “blistering” in his criticisms of the government’s actions. He mentioned that some of the honchos should see jail time for fraud!!
You go, JR!!
In related news, Miss America stumbles yet again in the Miss Universe pageant.
Can we get the FED to bail her out?
BC Bob Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 9:49 am
50.5,
I would love to buy you a drink. Can you promise that you will be at the next GTG?
If you can add some food to that, hell yeah. Make sure they cook enough so I can take some home. I’ve run into some very slight financial headwinds.
29 Lincoln Park – Get a rowboat to travel around during the floods.
Anything bad about the towns of Wayne, North Caldwell, Pequannock and Lincoln Park?
Make sure to steer clear of flood zones. Most of those towns have flooding issues.
Lincoln Park and Pequannock have the lowest taxes (in Morris Co.). However, LP sends their students to high school in Boonton, which isn’t a great school. The lower grades in L.P. are fine.
#41 – I’ve run into some very slight financial headwinds.
Just though I’d offer some help.
Just signed a new lease on a home. So goodbye to the small apartment. The owner was trying to sell for $365,000 after buying in 2005 for $415,000, but couldn’t stomach dropping the price any more.
Question: Do I need to worry about the bank foreclosing and throwing me out if I have a signed 1 year lease? My realtor says no, the bank just becomes your landlord. Is this right?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve released Monday details of new rules governing mortgage origination. The final rules will be voted on by the Fed board later this morning. The final rules create a new class of high priced loans that include most subprime loans. For these loans, lenders are banned from making a loan without regard to a borrower’s ability to repay the loan from income and assets other than the home’s value. Lenders must also verify income and assets of the borrower. For all mortgages, the rule requires advertising to contain more information about rates, monthly payments and other loan features
“If you can add some food to that, hell yeah”
50.5,
No problem. We can stop by the silo.
make [46],
Freaking revolutionary. Great to see our fed is doing thier job.
Too bad all the horses, jockey’s also, have left the barn. The barn door is now locked shut.
I can’t get links with tinyURL – my firewall blocks access.
Could people please post the full URLs, if possible?
would love to be the fly on the wall for the next GTG so I can observe what transpire amongst friends
scribe, did you go to yahoo and search the t link from there, then click out from y?
Even if you’re not in a flood zone in LP, you can still have problems. The flooding can get so bad that many of the access roads in and out of town have been flooded out.
We have friends who live in town here. 3 years ago during they had to move their daughter’s christening at the last minute because the parking lot of the location they had chosen was a complete river. Not only that, you couldn’t get into town via 23 and 202. We had to detour all the way out to 287. That was the longest detour I have taken in my life.
Jb,
…Just sent you an email.
make, #46
The problem with regulatory rule making – first, they publish the rules, but then, what’s pretty typical is that all sorts of questions come up, and then they also need to follow up by publishing interpretive guidance.
Meanwhile, things stall out.
Pat,
No. Will try that. Thanks.
#46
Where was the Fed in 03? 04? 05?
Typical government, driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror.
North Caldwell is a very nice town, very good elementary schools, the issues with the high school are mostly fighting between towns but it is considered a good school and is pretty standard for NJ, many, many towns have these issues. Pequannock is polluted and not the nicest town, the schools suck. Wayne has some very nice areas but it is a bit of a mixed bag so the schools can be problematic in that regard. I would stick to Wayne or North Caldwell, lincoln park is a flood zone as is Pequannock, heavy rains make it hard to get around, I have never had a problem getting around the caldwells in heavy rain.
Does anyone know of a school district where there are no fights, scares, competition, bullies? I want only the best for my kid and want to protect them from the dangers of reality.
58, Amish County, PA.
Does anyone know of a school district where there are no fights, scares, competition, bullies? I want only the best for my kid and want to protect them from the dangers of reality.
Send him to a NYC public shool for a few years and see how he reacts. If he’s the bully and a leader of the pact then leave him there he could be the next Mozillo, if he’s the one thats coming home hungry cause he “forgot” to have lunch then get him out and put a safety net around him.
my two cents
I would also like to request that any of you terroristic posters stop using the numeral (1) as i have laid claim to it by using it as part of my name. anyone using the number 1 in their name from here on out will be seen to be personally insulting me.
Hi Kettle,
Off topic rant/observation:
Now that it was revealed that Indymac wasn’t even a “troubled bank” before Schumer issued what was, and should be, his first and last such letter, I had questioned why, why, why, Schumer issued his famously irresponsible letter on Indymac. Even the director of the OTS maintains that Schumer gave the bank a “heart attack.”
As a former banking wonk, his actions puzzled me mightily. I had tentatively concluded that it had to be for political purposes, but could not fathom why. Was it possible that the Dems were trying to monkeywrench the economy ahead of the election? That would be a scandal of monstrous proportions. It couldn’t be so, I thought.
Apparently, I am not the only one to suspect political motives.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25654303
” . . . Why? Why would a federal official with enormous power, destroy an institution on which tens of thousands of depositors (not all of whom are insured) and employees depend? Why would a New York Senator attack a Pasadena bank, acting as some sort of amateur, self-appointed, long-distance bank examiner?
Perhaps this might help answer the question: Indymac has been under attack from the hard left. The Center for Responsible Lending issued an attack on Indymac within a few days of Schumer’s letter. CRL is part of a small army of left of center ‘research’ groups, community organizers, and public interest law firms who make their living accusing home lenders of racial redlining and predatory lending. On June 20th the Center accused Indymac of unfair practices regarding minority borrowers.
A suspicious person might think that a network of lefty attack groups proficient in bank bashing and frequently funded by trial lawyers and short-sellers, coordinated their activities with a law firm on the hunt and a Senator who works closely with the network.
On the other hand, maybe it is a coincidence that CRL and Sen. Schumer attacked the same bank in the same week. Maybe he didn’t know about the CRL report, nor CRL about his letter. Maybe the community group didn’t know about the trial-lawyer class action lawsuit which was launched against Indy a couple of weeks before all of this started.”
For my part, I had not made the connection between the NCRC/ACORN/Greenlining coalition and an effot to take down Indymac, but, in my experience, this makes perfect sense. Why else would Schumer care about a bank in Pasadena? Thus, Schumer did act for political motives: to help his constituents in the free housing community.
This means that Schumer wasn’t trying to bring down a bank in order to help Obama. Yet the unbelievable stupidity of Schumer is just mind-boggling. How could he not know that his letter would lead to a bank run? I am left with only two logical conclusions about Schumer’s actions: He is either an incompetent twit that doesn’t consider the consequences of his actions when he tries to make himself relevant for the cameras, or he consciously and callously decided that it was better that he harm the economy in his own way, because this way helps him.
(personally, I believe the former—highly placed officials I know say that the most dangerous place to stand in NY is between Chuck and a camera.)
As I once said about a real estate agent we used to use, “he is either lazy or lying. Either way, the damage is the same.”
grim, 63 in mod
don’t even get me started on safety gear…I think it should become NJ law that every pedestrian/jogger/bike rider wear a helmet, knee, elbow, and shin pads. Also, I hope someone relizes the dangers of hot coffee and tea. We need laws regulating the tempature of these beverages before more people get injured.
PTtrader
If the house is foreclosed on, the bank is required to honor you lease for the full term per NJ law. you are safe. I am not an attorney, but i did speak to one about this as i have suspicions that my land lord is a prime candidate for foreclosure. To be really sure, ask and attorney yourself.
Chapter 9 Contents:
* The Causes for Eviction
o Eviction only for cause
+ Exceptions to eviction for cause
# Tenants in foreclosed property
# What if you are not covered by eviction for cause?
o Grounds for eviction (N.J.S.A. 2A:18-61.1)
The Causes for Eviction
Eviction only for cause
EVICTION FOR CAUSE IS a basic rule of landlord-tenant law in New Jersey. This means that tenants can be evicted only under one of the causes or grounds for eviction listed in the Anti-Eviction Act. Cite: N.J.S.A. 2A:18-61.1. There are 18 different causes for eviction under the Anti-Eviction Act. No tenant can be evicted unless the landlord can establish one of these grounds. The law covers tenants in all types of rental property: a single-family house, an apartment building or complex, or a mobile home. The causes for eviction in the Anti-Eviction Act are listed below.
Top of page
Exceptions to eviction for cause
Almost all tenants are covered by the Anti-Eviction Act. However, the law does not apply to tenants residing in buildings or houses with three or fewer apartments where the owner lives in one of the apartments. This is known as the “owner-occupied” exception. Tenants subject to the owner-occupied exception may be evicted at the end of the lease term for any reason. If you are a month-to-month tenant living in a building with three or fewer apartments and your landlord lives in one of those apartments, the landlord needs only to give you a month’s notice to quit before taking you to court. Cite: N.J.S.A. 2A:18-53.
Other exceptions involve tenants with developmental disabilities who permanently occupy a unit. The Anti-Eviction Act does not protect tenants in these situations. The aim of this provision is to enable the eviction without cause of co-tenants living with the developmentally disabled tenant.
As explained in Chapter 8, The Nuts and Bolts of Fighting Evictions, hotel and motel guests are not covered by the Anti-Eviction Act, unless they have no other home and live there on a continual basis. The Anti-Eviction Act does cover people who are living in rooming and boarding homes. Chapter 8 discusses protections for rooming and boarding house residents.
Top of page
Tenants in foreclosed property. Your right to eviction for cause continues even when a bank or mortgage lender files an action to foreclose on your rented property because your landlord has not paid the mortgage. This means that the foreclosing bank or mortgage lender must follow the law and can only evict you for one of the causes under the law. Cite: Chase Manhattan Bank v. Josephson, 135 N.J. 209 (1994).
http://www.lsnjlaw.org/english/placeilive/irentmyhome/tenantsrights/chapternine/index.cfm
x (28)-
No, but not bad.
58, Amish County, PA.
No good either. Had a school shooting in Amish country about a year ago…random person off the street.
If the powers that be wanted to make a surprise announcement over the WE, why didn’t they announce a rate hike….
The inflation is killing us here in CA..consumer..what consumer? The consumer of groceries, gas, hot dogs and beer…that’s about it…
make (46)-
“The final rules create a new class of high priced loans that include most subprime loans. For these loans, lenders are banned from making a loan without regard to a borrower’s ability to repay the loan from income and assets other than the home’s value.”
Gimme that old-fashioned underwriting!
It will be amazing to see how many lenders cannot operate under these parameters.
Who’s next?
http://dealbreaker.com/images/thumbs/Bovecommentarywhoisnext.pdf
Continuing on my earlier comment about the Case-Shiller NY Metro index.
The index for the NY Metro area for Jan 2002 (before the boom started) stood at 125 and at the peak in June 2006 stood at 216. That is a gain of about 73%.
Now if we account for a reasonable growth of about 2% since Jan 2002, the index should have been at about 141 in April 2008. The index was at 194 in April 2008.
So, if it falls another 27% it will be inline with a more realistic 2% growth since January 2002. Just my 2 cents.
Jim Rogers says he wont cover his shorts on Fannie.
Goldman says sell. FRE and FNM have another 35% more to go…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7hS5BuYqeR8&refer=home
Make money,
do not force me to report you to DHS!!!
00
\/
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — As the economy continues to suffer from the housing downturn and fallout from risky mortgages, the Federal Reserve Board on Monday voted unanimously to bar lenders from making higher-priced mortgages without regard to a consumers’ ability to repay. Regarding higher-priced loans, the Fed’s new rules also prohibit lenders from: relying on income or assets that it does not verify to determine repayment ability; imposing prepayment penalties if the payment can change during the initial four years; and making a loan without establishing an escrow account for property taxes and homeowners’ insurance for first-lien loans
FYI
I’m claiming Reinvestor1800hopenow as mine. Please do not use it without express written consent.
Let it be known that all njrereport.com posters shall not end their names with the letter U in the third position.
The names, trademarks, service marks, logos and icons of Stu appearing on this Web site may not be used in any manner by users of this Web site without the express prior written permission of Stu. Failure to abide by these restrictions may result in being labeled a terrorist and you may be subject to empty threats of violence by no-shows at periodic get-togethers.
#74 John,
These new rules will remove a swath of buyers from the Market. Of course the Mortage Bankers Association would complain that these new rules put the dream of “Home Foreclosure” out of the reach of ordinary folks.
Clotpoll (66)
That’s still a huge haircut for BAC after your commissions.
this is a shameful and embarrassing day for the U.S.
re 65
leases under forclosre
I have seen leases here with a clause specifcally subordinating the lease to a forclosure.
Are these clauses valid? Is the whole lease invalid if there is no separability clause?
If so, is the lease really just month-to-month?
(76) Stu – good one..
(79) skep-tic – agreed!
Thanks for the info. Yeah, I worry about the floods in Lincoln Park..has been X’ed out.
(31) I would consider decent, I guess, a school rated on greatschools.net 7 or above. With additional information from the board of ed on what the graduation % to going to college % plus the SAT scores of the school along with other info. Though as pointed it out this does not factor in the atmosphere of the school which is important as well.
“this is a shameful and embarrassing day for the U.S.”
It’s been shameful and embarrassing the last 4 years.
Just plain cheap, or signed of the coming economic apocolypse? 15+ people from Glen Ridge attend a birthday party in “prestigious” Glen Ridge. The 7 year old birthday boy requests donations be made to the Fresh Air Fund of Newark in lieu of gifts. “Close to $200” is raised.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1215923777298560.xml&coll=1
Skep(79):
“this is a shameful and embarrassing day for the U.S.”
I feel the same way. Due to the current income tax structure where the upper classes can afford the loopholes and the middle classes can not, these bailouts will continue to widen the gap that exists between the wealthy and the middle class.
If there was a way to invest in barbed wire and personal security details, that is where I would be going long. The demand for such increases with each additional morally hazardous step our wonderful leaders continue to take. My biggest personal fear being that the pain felt on the day of reckoning is being increased exponentially with each additional bailout. Woe to the United States of America.
Support for the equity market
Support for the banks
Support for the securities firms..
-0- support for the American household or the US dollar…
Stu
Don’t forget bullets.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/07/video-indymac-c.html
IndyMac CEO saying he’s company is fine and predicting a soft landing in real Estate.
I think he should get Bob Nardelli job and head Chrysler.(sarcasm off)
“The debt holders and the US government are the true economic owners of the GSEs,” writes Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Management. “Throw the shareholders a bone with a swap offer for debt, say ten cents on the dollar of book, and kill the public listing pronto.”
It’s been shameful and embarrassing the last 4 years.
Amen Brother.
ps. What happened to the big rally you predicted last night?
since we are making demands, i.e, 101, 104,X, ect:
I want a 1 billion dollars in unmarked bills; a flight to Rio and the letter “M” stricken from the english language.
Love the headline on Marketwatch
“Monday’s bulls need bailout”
Volume neared 340 million on the New York Stock Exchange, and decliners topped advancers 3 to 2. On the Nasdaq, 213 million shares traded, and declining issues outpaced those on the rise by more than 3 to 2.
All that press this AM was for naught, the market will stay bearish.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/stocks-open-solidly-up-paulson/story.aspx?guid=%7B2EF4E9F5%2D4E30%2D4150%2DA3C2%2D61594FF5E777%7D
WM down %20. We’ve all been waiting for this implosion.
Anyone catch that Jim Cramer “special” on NBC yesterday? This guy is a real jack-reinvestor huh?
Funny thing though – did anyone notice when he began talking about how ethanol is a major cause of higher food prices the show seemed to cut the remainder of his rant and go to commercial? Do the farming lobbyists have inroads to television production these days?
http://www.everbank.com/001CurrencyAccess.aspx?LinkID=Column
thinking of moving savings into Swiss Francs. good/bad idea?
WM down %20. We’ve all been waiting for this implosion.
Toshiro,
Please contact Hank and Ben immediately to include WM in that housing bill they’ll pass this week.
thinking of moving savings into Swiss Francs. good/bad idea?
better late than never. great Idea.
#79 skep -tic
“Give me liberty or give me debt”
Patrick Henry Y2K model
Is anyone familiar with what happened to real estate during the depression? what happened to home owners(carrying mortgages)? I know the mortgage scene was very different then. Does anyone know of any books that might discuss this in some manner? If we see a 1930 redux, then do banks kick people out of houses enmass or does the government step in in some way? it sounds like massive wealth (debt) destruction to me.
“ps. What happened to the big rally you predicted last night?”
make [90],
130 points and puff. I guess that is today’s definition of a big rally?
Is the market tired of being goosed by hollow/meaningless rhetoric?
#100 BC Bob,
We’re running out of fools?
“Is the market tired of being goosed by hollow/meaningless rhetoric?”
You’ll know when this occurs. A major market dislocation day will be coming to your block of the woods real soon.
National City shares halted for pending news –
kettle, if the herd can’t be connived and turned with happy talk and sunshine, then it’s government intervention and some kind of rebate for bulldoze program.
Otherwise, people like you and me would start showing up at the courthouse, bidding a dollar, and handing the key back to the debtor- we’d need to do the debt destruction ourselves because our fearful leaders won’t do it by raising rates.
#24
“Money Magazine’s Best Places to Live – 2008.
Number 5 – Franklin Township N.J.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105381/America’s-Best-Places-to-Live-2008”
just make sure your child isnt wearing any gang colorS at school.
Pros: Natural beauty, DIVERSITY, affordability
BC,
Assuming a crash of 1987 magnitude happens. Dow down to a 9 handle should I sell a few ounces of the yellow stuff I have down under to pick up some shares of something solid here in the states?
or just sit tight and with a martini paid for in Euro’s while I’m learning historical styles of furniture design.
“A major market dislocation day will be coming to your block of the woods real soon.”
Stu,
Please elaborate. My block of the woods?
FranklinDweller #105,
The natural beauty will soon be a thing of the past, IMHO.
Negativity is at all time highs. Now we get to see if earnings and write-offs by the banks are that bad. Maybe they are. Who knows, but now we will.
Monday
M&T Bank
Macatawa Bank Corporation
Northern Financial
PacWest Bancorp
Tuesday
AmeriServ Financial, Inc.
BOK Financial
State Street Corporation
Trustco Bank
U.S. Bancorp
Westamerica Bancorporation
Wednesday
Astoria Financial Corporation
First Midwest Bancorp
Mercantile Bank Corporation
National Penn Bancshares
Northern Trust
Piper Jaffray
RURBAN FINL CORP
S.Y. Bancorp
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
United Community Financial Corp.
United Security Bancshares
Valley National Bancorp
Wells Fargo & Company
Thursday
AMCORE Financial
AMERICAN RIVER BANKSHARES
Associated Banc-Corp
BancFirst
BancorpSouth, Inc.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
BB&T Corporation
Berkshire Hills Bancorp
BlackRock, Inc.
Brookline Bancorp
Capital One Financial Corp.
CIT Group
Citizens Banking
ENTERPRISE FINL SVCS CORP
First Commonwealth Financial
First Financial Bankshares
First Financial Holdings
First Horizon National Corporation
Flagstar Bancorp
Great Southern Bancorp
HOME BANCSHARES INC.
Huntington Bancshares
Independent Bank Corp.
MBT Financial Corp.
Merrill Lynch
Provident Bankshares Corp.
Simmons First National
Zions Bancorp
Friday
*Citigroup Inc.
Gateway Financial Holdings, Inc.
GREEN BANKSHARES INC
Old Second Bancorp
Anyone else think that by next Friday we’ll have a good ideal about how banks are doing?
make [106],
It depends on what the price of that shiny metal is at that time? Great problems to have.
FranklinDweller Says:
“Money Magazine’s Best Places to Live – 2008.
Number 5 – Franklin Township N.J.
I don’t think the numbnutz that put these lists together have ever been to NJ, much less Franklin Twp. Article cites excellent schools…That’s not what I hear.
I think Parsippany was the highest ranking town in NJ last year…another brigadoon to be sure.
BC Bob,
Take a look at what has been happening in emerging markets recently. Then add up all of the economic bad news, $150 oil, $950 gold and enormous personal debt with diminishing wages, increasing job losses, declining sentiment and peoples housing wealth evaporating. Throw in local property tax increases and the commodity boom with it’s inherent impact on core and non-core inflation and you have one serious recipe for disaster. Market declines of only 20% may be just the tip of the iceberg.
Perhaps the reason everyone is cooking their books is because they can’t afford to buy food?
Now isn’t the time to be selling gold. Gold has been held back since March. Look at what happened last time gold held steady in 06. It went through the roof. The government is now bailing out Fannie and Freddie with inflation. Initially, it will strengthen the markets and maybe even the currency (because people are gullible). In the end, the only thing we’ll be left with is a devalued dollar. Everyone who screamed gold was dead when it dropped from 1030 to 850 is probably wishing they bought in at 850 right now.
Money also has a ranking for best places to live in New Jersey. For this ranking they throw out the 100,000 population upper limit used in the ranking that produced Franklin.
This ranking has Edison at #1. Franklin at #2.
Rest of the rankings are:
Hamilton, Howell, Middletown,Parsippany/Troy Hills,P-way,Union, Washington,Wayne
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/states/NJ.html
Pat,
The question is , is ti better to be a renter, or a home owner ( with a mortgage) if a depression hits. If runaway inflation hits instead, then owning is better, assuming you can still pay the note. But my question is in a depression/deflationary depression is renting or owning better. obviously deflation is going to make the house note a larger burden, but is it likely that government action (and there would be some sort) would counter the deflationary effects?
That is the question, and i was wondering if anyone new of any historical perspectives.
From that Money article above, NJ towns in the top 100:
Rank City Population
35 Edison 101,400
5 Franklin Township 59,100
51 Hamilton 91,700
77 Howell 52,000
86 Middletown 67,600
13 Parsippany/Troy Hills 52,900
23 Piscataway 53,900
75 Union 56,000
58 Washington 52,600
100 Wayne 55,700
Whoa Kettle!
Pat’s not THAT old.
Stu [112],
You’re preaching to the choir.
Franklin Township? Piscataway? These are awful towns.
ben [113],
Classic textbook action. It takes out 28 year highs, gets the uninformed bulled up and catches the late comers vulnerable in an extremely overbought, short term position. It then throws them under the bus and consolidates at the old high, building a foundation for the next move higher. Old ceilings become new floors.
rich,
1930 was only about 80 years ago. assume pat was at least 20 or so….. 100 isnt really THAT old. ;)
Bagholder of the day?????
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/724496659.html
x (78)-
A haircut…with a chainsaw.
Stu [112],
You’re preaching to the choir.
Amen brother. I remmeber you saing in March that Central banks are like Mosquitos they’re just annoying and markets will shake them quickly and win. Flooding the market with what’s left in reserves is like throwing an ice cube in a pool and hoping to cool the water.
I love Jim Rogers for saying FU to Hank and holding on to his Fannie and Freddy sort positions. In essence calling their bluff on Bloomberg while sitting in Hong Kong where they can’t touch him.
#120 kettle1
He’s just having a cashflow and mark to market problem. AKA welcome to reality.
Relative to my earlier comment (once Grim unmods it), from the LA Times on 7/2:
“John D. Hawke, the U.S. comptroller of the currency (regulator of national banks) from 1998 to 2004, had more pointed words for Schumer in a story in the American Banker newspaper today.
“If Schumer continues to go public with letters raising questions about the condition of individual institutions, he will cause havoc in the banking system,” Hawke said.
“Leaking his IndyMac letter to the press was reckless and grossly irresponsible. I don’t see how he can be trusted with confidential information in the future. What this incredibly stupid conduct does is put at risk the willingness of regulators to share any information with the [congressional] oversight committees. After this, you’d be crazy to share information with Schumer.”
hmmm,
so its irresponsible to suggest that a business or bank may be in trouble due to shady practices even thought those practices are public knowledge?
In other news altria (formerly phillip morris)has stated that it is irresponsible for the CDC and Surgeon General to suggest that smoking may be bad for your health.
“Leaking his IndyMac letter to the press was reckless and grossly irresponsible. I don’t see how he can be trusted with confidential information in the future. What this incredibly stupid conduct does is put at risk the willingness of regulators to share any information with the [congressional] oversight committees. After this, you’d be crazy to share information with Schumer.”
Nom,
Small price to pay. Chuckster can not go to banks and say give me money or you’ll be on my next letter and everyone has seen what happened to IndyMac.
If I’m a CEO of WM, WB, Downey, First Fed, Citi, Mer, Leh, and Chuck is holding on line one, I’ll pick up the phone and say
“Mr. Schummer I have just instructed my staff to deposit $10M to your charity”
“Amen brother. I remmeber you saing in March that Central banks are like Mosquitos they’re just annoying and markets will shake them quickly and win.’
make,
Good memory. However, I term them, cb’s, as gnats.
more great news for the middle class!
http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2008/07/14/daily6.html
/sarcasm
Bond of the day!
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CPSMARTNBE 6.75000% 04/15/2013 CALL
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 49.126
Yield to Worst (Ask) 26.000%
My new idea for a bumpersticker:
“Loose Chucks Sink Bucks”
“The problems gripping the credit arena continue to occupy the headlines. Two weeks ago, I reprised the view of George Soros. This week, I would like to share like-minded comments from Ted Forstmann, IMG’s chairman and CEO.”
“We are in a credit crisis the likes of which I’ve never seen in my lifetime. . . . The credit problems in this country are considerably worse than people have said or know. . . . It’s hard for me to believe that it gets fixed without upheaval in the financial system. Things are going to fail. Enterprises are going to fail. The economy is going to slow.”
As to Forstmann’s timeline: “I think we’re in about the second inning of this.”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/CreditFalloutIsJustBeginning.aspx
as I recall, Fortstmann was the only guy in Barbarians at the Gate who thought junk w/ PIK toggles was insane and was bound to blow up. Pretty reminiscent of the neg am subprime mortgages of this decade
BC #131
Can we get tall paul out of retirement? We need someone with a backbone otherwise we’re toast and japan’s lost decade will be a walk in the park.
126 – ket,
It is really about how bank regulation is supposed to work, and the regulations and laws governing what the gov can and cannot say about institutions.
Roosevelt understood how forces less official than government can bring down financial institutions, and sometimes for no good reason. This is why bank exam reports can’t be FOIA’d. That said, there are regulations that govern condition too, and the fact that Indymac was not on the “troubled bank” list at FDIC suggested that its capital position wasn’t dire.
But once a US Senator openly questions its ability to survive, you cause a bank run, deplete capital and start the death spiral.
I don’t buy that this was a mercy killing. Fact that a bank was suffering did not mean it was about to go under, and if the story is ever written about conditions at Indymac prior to the Schumer letter, it may well be learned that Schumer singlehandedly killed Indymac. Why he did so is the other part of the story, and the possible answers are (1) brain dead, (2) appease political supporters at the cost of a bank and the economy (3) amass power vis a vis other bank, and (4) harm economy in order to help democratic prospects.
If there is another good explanation, I would like to hear it. IMHO, Schumer has slipped below that waste of flesh, Maxine Waters, in becoming the lowest form of life in Congress.
from today’s WSJ:
“Last week, the price doubled for a swap that pays off if a 10-year U.S. Treasury note defaults. It costs €22,000 (about $35,000) annually for an investor to buy five years of default protection on €10 million (about $16 million) of Treasury bonds, well above its previous peak of €18,000 (around $29,000) reached in March as Bear Stearns collapsed.”
#134 Nom,
Any chance Shumer and/or his cronies were short or owned puts on Indymac or other banks?
WMPRR – Washington Mutual Pref stock down $133 a share today and for the last 52 weeks is down over $830 a share.
I salute you mr. bank stock. falling over $800 a share is indeed a feat!!!!!!!!!!!
Last Trade 402.9644 Volume 72,930
Net Change -132.6056 52 Week High 1,233.98 on 02/01/2008
Net Change % -24.76% 52 Week Low 489.68 on 07/11/2008
Bairen (136):
“Any chance Shumer and/or his cronies were short or owned puts on Indymac or other banks?”
You give Chuck to much credit. He’s not smart enough to pull off such a stunt. He truly likes to shoot his mouth off about stuff he knows almost nothing about. It’s almost as embarrassing to watch him speak publicly as it is to watch our baboon in chief do the same.
Speaking of short sale / distress properties, here are some field rpt from hudson, facts may be too old for this age:
Early March I decided to pick up my boots to test out the marcket. First thing for a newbie would be going through a few foreclosure court, as suggested in the book. I spent 2 good afternoon in hudson court house. Each pm the rooms were full of mix of bank lawers and ‘vultures’.
Except for one, yes only one in two sessions, the bank lawers got all re back to their books! It’s a 10 pages list each. it looks to me the banks were winning 3 months ago! They were not ready of yet making any concessions. Of couse the foreclosures listing are increasing dramatically in the Hudson Reporter each time I bought it since. How things are changing so dramatically since then out of my wildest immagination.
67 renting
“Had a school shooting in Amish country about a year ago…”
yeah – but it was a wooden gun.
The splinters were a real pain in the a$$, though.
23:
Odd, I hear “Country Death Song,” by Violent Femmes.
Because Quincy Jones is way too funkay for that neck of the woods…
70:
What goes, “clip-clop,clip-clop,clip-clop,clip-clop,clip
-clop,clip-clop–BANGBANGBANGBANGBANG — clip-clop,clip-clop,clip-clop,clip-clop,
clip-clop,clip-clop”?
An Amish drive-by shooting.
82 skeptic
“this is a shameful and embarrassing day for the U.S.”
Yes.
Disgusting.
145: He actually killed 5 kids. Not really that funny.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1437813720080714
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President George W. Bush lifted a White House ban on offshore drilling on Monday to try to drive down soaring energy prices, a largely symbolic move unlikely to have any short-term impact on high gasoline costs.
With prices at the pump over $4 a gallon, Bush pushed the Democratic-controlled Congress to expand offshore oil and natural gas drilling and give companies access to the Arctic Wildlife National Refuge despite fierce opposition from environmentalists.
# 144
Beside, I was going through quite a few open house since March in JC/Hudson. I can tell you the average open house was so quiet I feel very sorry for the agent each time I was through. Weichert pls stop wasting your agent’s time in hudson.
“this is a shameful and embarrassing day for the U.S.”
Since when everybody in this country care about shame and embarrass?!? We only label winner or looser this day.
Ready for more inflation via government spending?
Dodd is having an “emergency” conference call today.
TODAY: DODD TO SPEAK ON MARKETS, ADMINISTRATION PROPOSALS
U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Jul 14, 2008 – –
Washington, DC – Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, will hold a conference call with reporters today on the state of the economy and the Administration’s proposals to help restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
WHO: Chairman Chris Dodd
WHEN: 2:30 p.m. TODAY, Monday, July 14th
Imus,
How about an update from the front. How is WS doing these days?
104 bairen
“We’re running out of fools?”
You’ve got to admit that is doesn’t seem unreasonable to have assumed that there was an endless supply of fools.
5. Contrary to Popular Belief, Math Is Not a Rumor
Let’s clear something up about the growing mythology of the GSE’s having been “taken down by unfounded rumors.” This is not about rumors. This is about very simple math.
The ongoing decline in housing prices and the ongoing increase in foreclosures is having (and has already had) a very serious impact on the business models of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
There are two misleading statements that appear in virtually every mainstream media article on the two companies:
1) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still able to borrow money, so fears of their collapse are based on rumors and innuendo.
This is a very misleading statement. It is not about simply being able to borrow money. It’s about being able to borrow very cheap money and then leveraging up that borrowing ability to make a profit for shareholders. That is the core problem at the GSE’s. Their business models are no longer working due to the reality of the housing bubble unwind.
2) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are adequately capitalized.
This is another misleading statement. Technically, based on the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) requirements, both companies have adequate capital cushions. But that’s like jumping out of an airplane without a parachute and arguing on the way down over whether your shoes have the right government mandated soles. Yes, according to OFHEO guidelines, Fannie and Freddie have the right soles. But put in context, those shoes aren’t going to be of much use when their feet hit the ground without a parachute.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/government-GSE-fre-fnm-Freddie-fannie/index/a/18004
“Dodd is having an “emergency” conference call today.”
Like we’re not already screwed enough?
“Dodd is having an “emergency” conference call today.”
this guy is campaigning for VP. look out
Imus (149)-
Too bad he wasn’t gunning for you.
#158 skep-tic
His Friends of Mozillo mortgage makes him well qualified for the position. About time the Dems put someone in to have approval ratings in line with Agnew and Cheney.
A good sign is the selling if on everything. Good sign we are getting near bottom. Funny CIT sold all its student loan and Housing related stuff a few weeks back at a loss just to get out and their stock still got spanked today. Soveign has a outperform rating by KBW and since they overpaid for Independence they have been on a cost cutting mission for two years in contrast to indy mac and wamu who only started cutting back less than a year ago. Soveign and CIT have been working on their problems. But like Wamu and NCC they got just as pummeled. I love it. Spank them all.
RE: Amish shootings.
That shooting spree hit home to Hunterdon County folks. The owner of the Amish Market in Flemington lost his daughter to the poor insame guy.
The amazing thing about that Amish Community, they banded together to support the family’s and they explicity forgave the man and his family for the tragedy. They are different in lots of ways.
RD.
lehman should talk
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Lehman Bros. analyst Bruce Harting told clients Monday that he expects Washington Mutual will have to add substantial reserves for loan losses and that it is unlikely to be profitable until at least the second half of 2009. “As Washington Mutual builds reserves to cover these losses, it should remain unprofitable until credit costs normalize around the second half of 2009. After taking a provision of $3.5 billion the first quarter of 2008, we expect Washington Mutual will take a $4 billion provision in the second quarter, building reserves to $6.9 billion, producing another large loss for the quarter. We estimate a loss per share of $1.48,” Harting said. Shares of Washington Mutual traded down about 30%, to $3.50.
146 Jamey
My favorite Violent Femmes song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmF3Ze3nKYc
Any of you fine folks have access to commercial RE information in CT? If so and you’re willing to help me out with something please email me at info @ my website’s domain.
PS. Another Bergen county foreclosure went for 80% of judgment. Wound up being 70% of the late 2004 sale price.
Down go the Aussies- except for the hope of another gov bail out.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10521338
Readington (162)-
Did the Amish close that Flemington store, or did they move?
So will WaMu be this Sunday’s IndyMac?
Down to $3.21 today.
#166 NJ Kiwi,
i thought Australia’s real estate was way over priced 5 years ago.
What about NZ? I believe it’s bubbly. A friend of mine sold her condo in Auckland and can live for several years off the profit. She only owned it for 6 years.
Whoops, I meant $3.05 ;)
#170 – If it makes it to Sunday, down just about %38 today.
We JUST find another legitimate reason to go after the terrorist(s) in this country:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/13/news/companies/sec_probe.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008071405
SEC to crack down on spread of false rumors
Regulators announce probe aimed at the dissemination of ‘intentionally false information.’
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Securities and Exchange Commission said Sunday it is immediately opening a probe to prevent the spread of false information used to manipulate securities prices.
Bairen, oh yeah, NZ is way over priced. Even the waterfront properties are starting to come down which have recently been bought mainly by Japanese and US investors. It is coming down harder than here as well.
My brother gave up a great job at Deutsche Bank in London, went back and bought an exotic bird garden at peak to run. 3 years later he is bored to death. Oops the value went down and oops he ain’t getting a job at DB for a while. He had one on offer in Sydney which was pulled when the market started to tank. Guess he is stuck with emus and old ladies for a while. Not sure which make more noise.
The key is to wait until the exchange rate swings back. It used to be 1 US got you 2 NZ, now it is 1: 1.25. Goodness knows when this will happen
167 Clot. It moved up 202 north, its now behind the Shop Rite.
anybody check out Circuit City lately??
Its now below $2.
hmmm..smell closeout sale :).
#173 NJKiwi,
My friend who sold the condo lives in Sydney. She keeps telling me how scarce banking jobs are in Sydney. Good thing she sold in 06 since she has been out of work for over a year.
Are there any countries that missed this bubble?
Bush is doing his part in solving the housing crises in this country. Now, everyone posting on this blog needs to do theirs…buy an american made SUV and take long trips. That will revive the lagging US economy and housing will follow.
Bush trumps Congress; Moves first on drilling By BEN FELLER, Associated Press Writer
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080714/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush
WASHINGTON – Putting pressure on congressional Democrats to back more exploration for oil, President Bush on Monday lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling that his stood since his father was president.
Does that make ‘W’ a lame oily duck?
I was reading about that the other day. It sounded like they were mostly interested in rumors that caused stocks to go down. Rumors that Warren Buffet is going to buy someone are apparently OK.
176 – bairen.
zimbabwe?
as everyone forgotten that the federal goverments own report states that even if you drill on every piece of land that is currently closed, drilling is not going to help?!?!?!?!?
EIA reports that off drilling off limits areas will take 15 years to have an impact and at that time the impact is likely to be no more the 1- 2 %
IDIOTS, POPULIST IDIOTS
EIA report
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html
Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017
Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.
177-
Yes, the way to cure our addiction to oil is to drill for more oil.
[141] Barien,
Regarding shorts and puts on Indymac:
Cronies, maybe, though the CD groups likely are pretty transparent and that would be found out pretty readily.
If Chuck did that, it is unquestionably a felony. We should be so lucky.
RE: the Amish Market
It is behind the Shoprite on Commerce Street. It was still open a few months ago. I understand that it used to be somewhere else in Flemington, but I have only known it at that location.
It was still Amish owned in the fall of 2006 at the time of the shootings. I talked to the owner’s family friend who was working the day of the funeral so they could stay open. (We were selling Boy Scout Popcorn that day…)
RD
PS: Their pretzels are amazing, but they are a heart attack waiting to happen….
[147] Jamey,
I never try to censor anyone. All I will say is No Laugh For You.
I was living in Philly when that shooting occurred and the way those families suffered and continue to suffer is beyond description.
Almost had me agreeing with my gun-control friends.
From BP;
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/13/abreas_20080713185920.gif
175 Victorian
Good. I need a new memory card.
re: #183 Chucky’s concern for a california banks is admirable, perhaps he can apply some of that concern to the banks in his state?
I like matt simmons suggestion. Every time oil moves upward set a new price floor for oil purchases in the US. This can be accomplished by adding a surcharge to any crude oil purchases that are made below the current price floor. All surcharge revenues would go to renewable tech and infrastructure upgrades to support renewable tech
yes its a pipe dream but hey one can hope. The point remains, that until any hope of cheaper oil prices has been beaten out of the public and the pandering politicians then there will be no real change
hey this proposal would even create jobs in the US and provide the US with a cutting edge in renewable tech, it would also insulate us from a significant amount of middle east politics
Kettle1:
In the short run, it would kill us economically though ;)
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Cars-Trucks___1969-COUGAR-CONVERTIBLE_W0QQitemZ130238447193QQddnZCarsQ20Q26Q20TrucksQQddiZ2282QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item130238447193&_trksid=p3756.m14.l1308
Best car license plate, I will buy car only if I get to keep plates. However, wife would beat me to death with it.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Washington Mutual (WM:Washington Mutual Inc
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 3.23-1.72-34.75%
3:59pm 07/14/2008
Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio
Analyst
Create alertInsider
Discuss
Financials
Sponsored by:
WM 3.23, -1.72, -34.7%) could suffer its biggest-ever share price drop since the company went public in March 1983. The Seattle-based company, the largest savings and loan association in the U.S., saw its stock crash almost 35% lower to $3.28 Monday. The second-highest price drop was on October 19, 1987, when the stock sank almost 18%. The company is the sole surviving major Seattle-based bank after the flurry of mergers in the 1980s and 1990s, which ended the independence of banks like Rainier Bank, Seafirst Bank, and Peoples National Bank.
stu,
civilizations that make major transitions first tend to be the big dogs in the new world that exists after the transition.
An example of this is the industrial revolution. The US was one of the first countries of the world (along with the UK)to actively industrialize in the late 1800’s. We reaped the benefits of this for the next 100 years.
The japanese were some of the first to heavily develop automation and robotics. They are now some of the world leaders in this tech. The robotic transition is still actively taking place due to aging population. japan has decided to automate instead of import large numbers of immigrants.
The first countries that make the rough transition off of oil will be world leaders. The group that transitions first will generally benefit the most. As they can then sell their know how and tech to the world market.
Sucking it up and taking the short term pain of getting off oil would be a HUGE long term investment in the financial future of the US, regardless of environmental factors
Stu,
also consider that we are goose is cooked in the short term regardless. we might as well gain something for the pain.
James/Grim:
I sent you an email asking for an address and sales/listing history on a house. I used your old gmail address (I have not been on the site for a while). If there is another address I should use (or another agent on here could help me with the information), please let me know.
After taking some time off from the depressing prospect of trying to buy a house, we signed another apartment lease in Manhattan, but now are just starting to look again.
Thanks,
Eagle
# 134
Nah no conspiracy. It’s a dead man walking in many banks. It just need someone shouting out loud ‘stop walking’
Kettle,
Stop making sense.
vodka (194)-
I think John needs some kind of robotic “assistance”…if you know what I mean (if not, please reference his classic “rub and tug” post from last week):
“The robotic transition is still actively taking place due to aging population. japan has decided to automate instead of import large numbers of immigrants.”
“Billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday the crisis over major U.S. mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be the last, and that the deepening credit crisis is a “serious one” that will impact an already slowing U.S. economy.”
“This is a very serious financial crisis and it is the most serious financial crisis of our lifetime,” Soros said. “It is inevitable that it is affecting the real economy. It is an idle dream to think that you could have this kind of crisis without the real economy being affected,” he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1444921820080714
I like what the Germans are doing. They are transitioning tens of thousands of hookers into geriatric care work.
HEHE,
i am enjoying the ride so far, perhaps i am better off if people dont pay attention
SPR006
SPWR
USO
have been very good to me of late. i am averaging 30+% to date
201 Clot
Seriously?
funny thing is all these stuff are started from liberal media:
Osbama slams New Yorker portrayal:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080714/pl_politico/11719
all diclaimers regarding 202, i know nothing about finance and investing
I am only up around 25%. Was getting killed then discovered a few small-cap oil and gas plays that really paid off. Will be an interesting second half of the year.
clott
familiar with the exoskeleton the japanese are developing for use by the elderly and in assisting the elderly? of course it has other applications as well.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/10/08/exoskeleton_wrinkly_parent_care_plan_japan/
bi
I thought you were banned from bringing up election-related topics?
hear hear
WAMU SAYS SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDS ‘WELL-CAPITALIZED’ MINIMUMS FOR DESPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS
from marketwatch
Are there any off shore gambling groups that take odds on US banks???? now thats my idea of a game of chance :)
National City NCC; looks like it may give Wamu a run for its money….. to the bottom that is
This is what we have become?
WASHINGTON—A panel of top business leaders testified before Congress about the worsening recession Monday, demanding the government provide Americans with a new irresponsible and largely illusory economic bubble in which to invest.
“What America needs right now is not more talk and long-term strategy, but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future,” said Thomas Jenkins, CFO of the Boston-area Jenkins Financial Group, a bubble-based investment firm. “We are in a crisis, and that crisis demands an unviable short-term solution.”
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands?utm_source=EMTF_Onion
Hey all, back for a quick question – with the run on the banks, what is a girl to do? Any bank seem to be safe? Right now we’re at ING and Bank of America. Thoughts?
Oh, and housing update – Westchester market still super slow. But the house up the block from me has an accepted offer. It was listed for 759. I don’t know what the offer was. But I DO know that he bought the place 4 years ago for 789. I have to imagine the offer was above 700 but below asking (house is in nice shape, so it’s not a craphole begging for super low offers – brand new kitchen, etc.)
And my mother’s house, which was on the market, had several offers – but really low. Plus, she didn’t like the buyers. So she pulled it and decided to hang around for a while. Here’s hoping she made the right decision.
lost (203)-
Seriously. A former agent of mine has a kid in Iraq. He’s been over there from Day 1.
Well, early on, the kid gets some R & R time in Germany and falls in love with a 40-something hooker. Turns out, this dysfunctional (he was 20 when he met her) relationship “sticks”, and he visits her every time he has leave. My ex-agent has even gone over there and met her. He’s the one who told me about this, as she told him all about her part giant “re-training” class.
Sheesh. I just read what I wrote, and threw up a little in my mouth, as it almost reads like one of John’s stories (except mine has punctuation).
from above link.
Perhaps the new bubble could have something to do with watching movies on cell phones,” said investment banker Greg Carlisle of the New York firm Carlisle, Shaloe & Graves. “Or, say, medicine, or shipping. Or clouds. The manner of bubble isn’t important—just as long as it creates a hugely overvalued market based on nothing more than whimsical fantasy and saddled with the potential for a long-term accrual of debts that will never be paid back, thereby unleashing a ripple effect that will take nearly a decade to correct.”
“The U.S. economy cannot survive on sound investments alone,” Carlisle added.
210#, kettle,
I am gaming on these stocks: LEH, WM, FNM, FRE.
Vodka (207)-
I need an exoskeleton that will allow me to snap other Realtors’ necks with little-to-no effort.
bi (216)-
“I am gaming on these stocks: LEH, WM, FNM, FRE.”
I am gaming against you.
This is the kind of info that keeps me coming back here…
Gal (213)-
“Any bank seem to be safe? Right now we’re at ING and Bank of America. Thoughts?”
How about a safe that can hold plenty of gold + a pit bull?
It’s only love if she stopped charging him.
Clotpoll Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
lost (203)-
Seriously. A former agent of mine has a kid in Iraq. He’s been over there from Day 1.
Well, early on, the kid gets some R & R time in Germany and falls in love with a 40-something hooker. Turns out, this dysfunctional (he was 20 when he met her) relationship “sticks”, and he visits her every time he has leave. My ex-agent has even gone over there and met her. He’s the one who told me about this, as she told him all about her part giant “re-training” class.
Sheesh. I just read what I wrote, and threw up a little in my mouth, as it almost reads like one of John’s stories (except mine has punctuation).
(220)-
We now have the post of the day.
[213]
Stay under 100K and you will be fine.
70: not to mention the drug abuse. (amish young adults get a vacation from amish life before they commit to a life away from the English. not much in the country, though… except seedy bars. with hell’s angels. selling crack.
http://www.rickross.com/reference/amish/amish2.html
(while i didn’t witness this, we did have amish kids standing in line outside the payphone on a saturday night. we imagined they were talking to other amish kids, in similar lines. possibly about horses. or maybe crack.)
Clot, ha! I wish I had one of each. I could probably obtain them easily and you’re right, they might be safer.
bi
I thought you were banned from making stock picks?
for anyone curious what utilizing oil/tar sands looks like or its impacts
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/11/fossilfuels.pollution
I am not a conspiracy theorist by nature, I am a realist.. But didn’t
George W. Bush sign the North American Union Act?”
What happens when our Financial Istitutions and our system fails? Emergernce of a National Central Bank and one Shared Currency between Mexico, Canada and US.
Amero?
225#, i am doing you guys a favor since you need contrarian indicator… but you will be burnt.
bi
STFU
What happens when our Financial Istitutions and our system fails? Emergernce of a National Central Bank and one Shared Currency between Mexico, Canada and US.
Amero?
*this is what its all leading up tp slowly to get you to accept it.
Everything you know, is about to change.
SAS
“Citigroup’s $1.1 Trillion of Mysterious Assets Shadows Earnings”
http://tinyurl.com/55razh
SAS
kettle1 Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
for anyone curious what utilizing oil/tar sands looks like or its impacts
ket: Does it somehow ease your conscience a bit to post this link? Maybe this reporting is supposed to be in a muckraking tradition, but it smacks more of pandering slanted nonsense with a self-professed moral high ground…..
“Venezuela’s Chavez says oil could reach $300”
http://tinyurl.com/5k5jmb
SAS
Other shoe, lots of those regionals own shares of fannie/freddie pref and the collateral underlying all those loans/leases on SUVs are coming home to roost in those second quarter numbers coming out. Only play left is buy the 15% bonds and short the stock for insurance. More of a junk bond stratgy then something you do for investment grade bonds. I hate this market.
“Branson predicts “spectacular” airline casualties”
http://tinyurl.com/63qgs3
“”The financial state of the world is just about the worst I’ve ever known it,” Branson told The Times newspaper in an interview. “It’s getting perilously close to being worse than the 1990s.
“You have the perfect storm — you’ve not only got the banking crisis and the housing crisis, you’ve got the soaring fuel prices as well. One of the big American carriers will almost definitely go.”
SAS
make [227],
Talk about a conspiracy theory; the recent appointed governor of the Bank of Canada;
“Finance Minister Jim Flaherty reached into his own department Thursday to appoint Mark Carney as the next governor of the Bank of Canada. He worked at Goldman Sachs for 13 years, rising to the post of managing director.”
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/10/04/bankgov.html?ref=rss
Clot,
Any news on your Realtor inquisition that you would be at liberty to share with us?
“Cloud hangs over U.S. mortgage firms”
http://tinyurl.com/62vxhq
John (234)-
When life hands you lemons, you gotta make lemonade.
“you gotta make lemonade”
and I hate lemonade….
SAS
Rent (237)-
Nope. Under gag. Even if I win, I cannot talk about it.
The first rule of Fight Club is, you do not talk about Fight Club.
Rent (237)-
I can unequivocally tell you, however, that my counterparty remains a douchebag.
I guess bi would call this a good entry point for getting long some of our most venerable US financial institutions:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:SKF
Frank (73)
Exactly what I was searching for. Thanks.
BC {236}
Unbelivable. I need a drink.
Enough Capital
Lehman has enough capital to survive, Morgan Stanley analyst Patrick Pinschmidt wrote in a note today.
“While we recognize it is difficult to focus on fundamentals in the current market backdrop, we believe Lehman has both the capital and liquidity to weather near-term headwinds,” Pinschmidt wrote. He retained his “overweight” rating on the shares.
“A return to profitability — in the context of a healing credit market backdrop — should be sufficient to drive valuation closer to book value,” he added.
Lehman fell $2.03, or 14 percent, to $12.40 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the lowest in almost nine years.
Another one? it seems like on Monday you claim to be well capitalized abd on Sunday the feds bails you out.
Balance sheet from 1928 and 1932 WOW!!!
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/money_23.html
GS and shorting the banks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={DFCE56A8-BCE9-47C6-9C82-49B16561342D}&siteid=yhoof2
Clot-
Nursing is a great career.
#184 Readington. The previous location was 202 North across from the Stewart’s Root Beer. PS. They are probably Mennonites, not Amish, based on the Nikes and cell phones. That doesn’t mean they weren’t affected by what happened.
RPat (249)-
Nursing what?
#251 babies. beer
251
My hangover.
232 chifi,
i am a realist, so i know that all is not rainbows and butterfly’s if we want to live any life except for monks.
I know enough about tar sands to know that their facts are correct. of course they highlight the dirty aspect, but my point is to simply offer information.
I have no problem with industry in general, but i do think that people should be aware of the real impacts so that they can make a real assessment for themselves.
Was there something about that, that offended you.
PS, i did not watch the video clip, but did read the article and flipped through the slide show.
make (246)-
Hey, there’s a lofty goal: getting your stock price back up to the company’s book value. Quick, where do I buy (or, bi)?:
“A return to profitability — in the context of a healing credit market backdrop — should be sufficient to drive valuation closer to book value…”
My fun addition to “Stories of True American Lending” for today:
I have a client who is in the middle of a short sale of the family home. Two mortgages, hopelessly upside-down…home purchased in 2005…some predatory lending/mortgage fraud involved on the front end. Combined documented family income of less than 75K; husband’s credit in the toilet (lates, charge-offs), wife’s credit abysmal, PLUS she has a prior BK.
Anyway, Wifey calls me last week, wanting to know if I can verify to her daughter’s college loan lender (Wachovia) that her house is in the middle of a short sale. To which I say, “why?”.
“Why” turns out to be that Wachovia wants Wifey to co-sign for daughter’s loan. I think to myself, “Self, why would Wachovia want a co-signor with a 500 middle score, a prior BK and a current short sale in process?”
But, hey: it’s not for me to judge. So, on Thursday, I send a letter to Wachovia verifying the short sale and make a mental note to check with my client in a couple of weeks to make sure the loan got denied.
Instead, at the end of the day today, I receive a triumphant phone call from my client. Wachovia has approved the loan! Daughter gets 15K, which- combined with scholarships- will get her through this year.
Part of me feels great. The other part of me thinks that this kid- after a lifetime of witnessing her parents’ borrowing behavior- is either going to pay this thing off religiously…or, immediately stiff Wachovia for every penny.
These stories are true. I can’t make up anything this rich.
243#, to me this is indeed a good entry point. look at LEH, dropped 10% in last 10 minutes.
#256
that sucks for the kid. I hope she is paying attention to her parents’ situation and makes the most of college.
re: 256
Kids learn from their parents. I say the latter, sorrowfully.
Wachovia is nuts, beyond nuts. It’s so absurd that words can’t describe!
Any questions about WB’s underwriting policies and procedures can be answered here…..
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WB#chart1:symbol=wb;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
bi (258)-
“…look at LEH, dropped 10% in last 10 minutes.”
bi, right about now might be a good time for you to brush up on the Law of Inertia.
You know, that “bodies in motion tend to stay in motion” thingy.
ChiFi (261)-
Makes one want to brush up the resume, load up a Penske and point it toward Charlotte. Didn’t pret say Wachovia is still hiring?
My college GF’s dad helped design the Wachovia building in Charlotte. It was the biggest building in town for years. It might still be.
I bet that guy is still alive. I bet he outlives the bank.
kettle1 Says:
July 14th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
232 chifi,
Was there something about that, that offended you.
PS, i did not watch the video clip, but did read the article and flipped through the slide show.
Well go watch the video then ……
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLBQxk72NY
chifi 264
watched the video and see your point. I dont disagree with the video but it is heavily geared towards one angle….
still the main point was just the description of how tar sands are extracted without commenting on the good/bad.
RE: Amish,
I remember the old location now, just never shopped at that location. You are probably right; it is unlikely that anyone at the market is old order Amish.
I grew up on the edge of Amish country on the Ohio/Indiana border. They were a lot less strict and varied in rules in that community. Many of the folks used power tools even in the 1970s. My uncle got a job as a carpenter with one group, and drove the crew to jobs doing home construction for 20 years. They didn’t drive, but had no qualms about riding in someone else’s car. BTW, excellent home builders.
He loved to work with them and it ended up being a good change of career after he got laid off from International Harvester in the last oil bubble.
Maybe there is Amish in our future :-)
RD
WaMu…gone!
say goodbye to WaMu…say goodbye my baby!
(Billy Joel song)
;)
SAS
“GM readies for new round of job cuts”
http://tinyurl.com/5oa77t
Re: Wachovia
That one Student Loan at 8% is going to look stellar next to all that rubbish on their balance sheet.
I hope the kid does well in school.
266 RD. We could do a lot worse. :).
#256
That is the way the system works these days.
I feel like I could write a book on the subject having been exposed to two kids in college.
The FA officer at Rutgers told my daughter this: First, your mom has to co-sign (PLUS) loan; once denied, then you will be eligible for other types of aid. The loan was 10K. I felt bamboozled. My agreement for both was I would pay for the first year of school only. They would have to do their part for the remainder. So, we did the loan (payable after 6 months) and I sat on it 6 months interest free, then paid it off with the funds I had set aside for her tuition. After this she became eligible for very low interest/ gov. & state subsidized interest loans, grants, etc. for the remaining costs.
say goodbye to WaMu…say goodbye my baby!
(Billy Joel song)
wow!
anyone hear of something like this in NJ?
“Asphalt shortage delays CDOT projects”
http://tinyurl.com/5fv3k8
SAS
SAS,
the price of asphalt has shutdown/cut back projects in NJ
I work in the transportation field. Have not heard of an asphalt shortage, but the prices are very high now, driving up the cost of construction.
http://www.state.nj.us/transportation/business/trnsport/PriceIndex.shtm
SAS 273
Watch the crack spread and how its hitting the US refiners
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1216090615531&chddm=12073&q=NYSE:VLO&
also look at:
frontier oil
tesoro
western refining
etc……
notice the similarity