From the Wall Street Journal:
Crisis Hits Europe’s Banks As U.S. Seals Bailout Deal
The White House and congressional leaders agreed on a deal to authorize the biggest banking rescue in U.S. history.
The $700 billion program would effectively nationalize an array of mortgages and securities backed by them — instruments whose deteriorating value has clogged the nation’s financial system.
Lawmakers finished writing the bill late Sunday, after which Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi declared it “frozen,” meaning no changes would be made. The bill leaves many mechanics of the operation up to the Treasury. Among these are the crucial issues of how the U.S. government would decide which assets it will buy and how it would decide what to pay for them. The legislation leaves the Treasury 45 days to issue guidelines on those procedures. The bill awaits votes in Congress starting on Monday.
From big Wall Street houses to small community banks, executives have expressed an interest in signing up for the bailout. But some have said the extent of their involvement will depend on critical details.
The political fallout from the bailout could be substantial, given the enormous expenditure of taxpayer money. Some polls show wide opposition. But the legislation includes provisions designed to guard against ultimate losses for the government. And it calls on the Treasury, as an owner of mortgage securities, to “encourage the servicers of the underlying mortgages” to minimize foreclosures.
The deal came after tension-filled weekend negotiations, where the specter of a faltering economy collided with the politics of a presidential election to create one of the biggest congressional dramas of recent years. Saturday included a high-decibel exchange between Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and congressional Democrats, a ban on handheld email devices to forestall news leaks, and a battery of lobbying calls from the president and the presidential candidates.
From Bloomberg:
European Lenders Rescued by Authorities as U.S. Crisis Spreads
European governments stepped in to rescue Bradford & Bingley Plc, Fortis, and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG as tremors from the U.S. credit crisis reverberated around the world.
The U.K. Treasury seized Bradford & Bingley, Britain’s biggest lender to landlords, while governments in Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg threw an 11.2 billion-euro ($16.3 billion) lifeline to Fortis. Germany guaranteed a loan to Hypo.
The interventions exposed how fallout from the crisis that drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and prompted a $700 billion U.S. bank-rescue package has gone global. It also added urgency to negotiations among European policy makers as to how they deal with banking collapses.
“The precarious global environment means the weakest links in Europe are now falling,” said Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. in London. “If banks continue not to lend to each other we’ll see more failures.”
…
Tightening credit is casting a pall over the European economy with U.K. growth the weakest since the early 1990s and the 15-nation euro-area on the edge of its first recession. The risk is of a spiral in which the credit crisis and the economy begin to feed off each other, resulting in costlier borrowing and even weaker expansion.“The extreme dislocations in European money markets are both a symptom and a source of serious stress in the financial sector, exacerbated by the rapidly deteriorating growth environment,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at Unicredit MIB in London.
To head off the collapse of its biggest bank, Belgium agreed to buy 49 percent of Fortis’s Belgian banking unit for 4.7 billion euros, while the Netherlands will pay 4 billion euros for a similar stake in the Dutch business, the governments said in a statement late yesterday. Luxembourg will provide a 2.5 billion-euro loan convertible into 49 percent of Fortis’s banking division in that country.
From the WSJ:
Wells Fargo Eyes Wachovia;
Crisis Hits European Banks
Wachovia Corp., which catapulted to the top of the U.S. banking industry with relentless acquisitions of weaker rivals, was in advanced discussions Sunday night to sell itself to Wells Fargo & Co., according to people familiar with the situation.
Wachovia was also holding talks with Citigroup Inc., but by late evening Wells Fargo appeared to be the preferred bidder. Details of the proposed transaction weren’t immediately clear, and the discussions could fall apart at the last moment.
The Wachovia developments came the same day that Congress and the Bush administration reached agreement on a $700 billion banking-rescue package. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the banking system spread to Europe over the weekend, as a major European bank was bailed out by a trio of governments, the U.K. was plotting the rescue of a British lender and Germany was trying to save a Munich-based lender.
Perhaps “Gone Global” would have been a more appropriate headline.
Whether these institutions survive or not is not the issue. Ultimately, governments will have to print enough money to erase all the leveraged debt that is about to implode. I’ll see your $700B and raise you a trillion.
I’ll see your $700B and raise you a trillion.
Damn optimists..
wasn’t the bailout supposed to regain consumer/global confidence? at this point is their any confidence to regain? is their even any global confidence left? seriously where is this bill to no-where going?
So my co-workers are wondering hot it is supposed to help blue collar types like us and I go “I DON’T KNOW?”
US Treasury to rely on China and the Middle East to finance bailout?
The U.S. is turning to foreign governments and other overseas investors to buy a good chunk of what could total $700 billion in Treasury debt expected to finance the bailout. Foreign investors also are needed to shore up the depleted capital of the nation’s financial institutions, seen in the plan by Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to buy a large stake in Morgan Stanley, which is weighed down by bad debt and market distrust.
This is a bittersweet moment in U.S. economic history. In one sense, the growing importance of foreign cash represents the triumph of a half-century of U.S. proselytizing for a global financial system in which money flows from those who have it to those who need it. But it is also an unmistakable sign of U.S. economic decline. The global financial system the U.S. designed had anticipated that American banks and financial firms would be the world’s financial lifeguards; now those institutions are like exhausted swimmers a stroke or two away from drowning.
The financial crisis makes clear how much the interests of foreign lenders have become a top concern in Washington. A big reason the Fed and Treasury stepped in to rescue mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, say U.S. financial officials, was to reassure foreign leaders including China, which holds roughly $1 trillion in U.S. debt, that U.S. securities were safe. “Superpowers do not normally ask their diplomats to reassure other nations on questions of credit-worthiness,” says former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers.
Foreign lenders have a great deal of sway. If they were to dump U.S. government debt — or be unwilling to buy more — the interest rates needed to attract buyers of Treasurys would soar. The already fragile U.S. economy would absorb yet another hit.
China, Saudi Arabia and other big foreign holders are unlikely to take antidollar measures precisely because they own so much U.S. debt. To the extent the dollar declines, so does the value of those nations’ holdings. Mr. Summers calls this situation “the financial balance of terror.”
But it is naive to assume that this so-called balance will protect U.S. interests indefinitely. Senior Chinese economists have voiced growing dismay about the outlook for the dollar, and the introduction of an additional $700 billion in debt might drive the currency’s value down further, at least in the short term. “I think foreigners are being taken for a ride by the U.S. government,” says Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
Sovereign-wealth funds — huge government investment funds — have largely sat on their hands rather than buy additional stakes in U.S. financial firms. China Investment Corp., for instance, has been wary of increasing its investment in Morgan Stanley after it was criticized sharply at home for taking equity stakes in U.S. financial companies that have nose-dived.
Domestically, the reliance on foreign money means a loss of autonomy that Americans are simply going to have to get used to. Part of the accommodation is already occurring. The controversy over investments by sovereign-wealth funds has been reversed. Last year, lawmakers worried the funds would gain political influence by investments in U.S. companies; now U.S. policy makers are worried that they won’t buy new stakes. Efforts to erect restrictions against foreign trade may also lose momentum. The U.S. needs the world’s money more than it thought it would and won’t want to rile potential lenders.
Pelosi said “We sent a message to Wall Street – the party is over,”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/28/news/economy/Sunday_talks_bailout/index.htm?cnn=yes
Is that line another “Mission Accomplished”?
Why so gloomy? our VP aka Mr. Congeniality announced years ago that “deficits don’t matter”. since the current crew in DC have now almost quadrupled our national debt in 8 years he’s ….. oh forget it, maybe deficts don’t matter to him cause he knew he could never run for Pres and he’d be in his compound in the middle of no where over in Dubai when this party ended.
I’m getting that figure by adding in all the bailouts and takeovers by fedco on top of our gov’s inability to live within is means.
From the Star Ledger:
Corzine to sign N.J. pension and benefits bill
Gov. Jon Corzine today is expected to sign into law several pension changes that took a complicated route to his desk.
The revisions will raise the retirement age for newly hired public employees from 60 to 62, bar pensions for part-time workers earning less than $7,500 and eliminate one state holiday, Lincoln’s Birthday, after contracts expire in 2011. They will also bar public employees from using time worked in other states to reach the 25 years of employment needed to qualify for lifetime health benefits from New Jersey.
State lawmakers voted to adopt the changes in June despite heated opposition from the state’s most influential public employees’ unions, including the Communications Workers of America and the New Jersey Education Association teachers union.
So I just put Pelosi’s message in my decoder ring and the message now reads… “When in doubt print more money, if that doesn’t work get more ink! “
Is there a score card for this game of liars poker? Did I say raise you a trillion? That would be a trillion a month. I don’t think there is anyone on this board who believes we’ve seen the last of Paulson on one knee.
I just posted an entry on how this bailout is not likely to help homeowners in foreclosure.
The reasoning is that it seems a good portion of this junk we’re going to be buying is secondary liens.
At the end of the post I quoted and linked to a blog entry from March 2008 regarding a rumor that one big bank was working on increasing their home equity loan portfolios.
Anyone else seen any information regarding this recently? Any one have any data regarding the origination of secondary liens in the past year or so? I haven’t been able to find any yet.
If the rumors are true, then this means Paulson could have been cooking up this plan for a while now.
Also, remember that paltry $300 billion dollar foreclosure relief bill?
$64 million dollars of it is coming to NJ to help with the blight of foreclosed and abandoned properties.
The Prez to make statement at 7:35am.
http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINWBT00988320080928
grim,
speaking of going global, for a while now I’ve been trying to figure out a way to outsource executives.
Seems to make sense, they’re very expensive and most business contacts and many employees are oversees now anyway.
To all the Wall St CxO’s out there, thank you for your years of devoted service but we’ve figure we can find people in other countries to provide the same service at a lower cost, which will go straight to our bottom line. They also have more incentive to not screw up our economy since they have so much money invested in it.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
In UK right now,
all the news channel are talking primarily about Financial Bailout, Fortis infusion by Governments, B&B nationalization.
On News, Some Chinese General Manager was on TV. The reporter kept asking, if they would change their position on investing in US Treasuries. The guy gave all the reasons why they are worried about US, but did not give any answer to that question.
Tom,
From the other thread earlier this morning:
“If one has to borrow more than 3 times their income to buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood and bank was willing to lend it to them, it’s not so simple.”
People are responsible for their own finances. Just because someone is willing to lend money to anybody who can fog a mirror does not absolve the borrower from personal responsibility to look after hios or her own finances. We are adults, after all, and must use some sense when entering contracts and not expect others to come save us from ourselves.
“If someone is over 30 years old and has worked all his adult life, but can’t save because of rising costs in products, education, housing and health care that is a problem.”
Yes it is a problem but it does not absolve one from one’s responsibiloity to pare back spending to try and keep spending in line with income.
“If amercians didn’t over extend themselves to buy cars, the us car makers would never have survived.”
Are you proposing that it is consumers’ duty to buy too much product and go too far into debt to support mismanaged american industries? Regardless of how poorly run companies might be, no consumer should purchase their product to keep them afloat. Well run companies get rewarded, poorly run ones go out of business.
But just add that americans were encouraged to spend more to help grow our economy. For most people wages were not increasing so that meant they were encouraged to borrow more.
“With certain types of jobs leaving the country, people had to go into different areas. In my opinion didn’t go into creating streams of money, they found a money stream and jumped in it.”
Just because drugs are available on the street and people encourage one to buy and use them does not mean it is ok to do so. Be adults and do not give into encouragement to buy, even when it comes from political leaders.
Bloomberg radio, if you wanna listen to the Prez now:
http://www.bloomberg.com/audioplayers/playr_owm.html?clipName=Bloomberg%20Live%20Radio&clip=http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/audio/radio_live.asx
“I don’t think there is anyone on this board who believes we’ve seen the last of Paulson on one knee.”
DL,
The problem is he seems to have no concern about bringing the taxpaying population to its knees.
Bush speaking live on ABC …
“The revisions will raise the retirement age for newly hired public employees from 60 to 62,”
Woa! They now need to work all the way to 62? What the heck! That is almost like medieval torture.
So this new plan still includes taxpayer money?
F that. I’m 100% against it. I hope Congress does the right thing and says no.
“But just add that americans were encouraged to spend more to help grow our economy. For most people wages were not increasing so that meant they were encouraged to borrow more.”
I missed putting the quotation marks on this paragraph above. These are Tom’s words, not mine.
“Drew Says:
September 28th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Anyone keeping cash in house ? For real have you thought of taking money out of bank?”
Drew,
In July, Paulson stated that the banking system was safe, regulators were on top it and it was a very manageable situation. Last week he told us that we were on the verge of a systemic collapse. OK, I listened. My wife went to the bank on Friday, took out everything, except for a small amount in checking. The teller stated that they never had a day like Friday, withdrawals.
No trying to scare you, just responding to your question.
Shiller on GMA
“I generally agree with the President.”
“I’m not sure the bailout will be enough. These are very uncertain times.”
Could someone explain to me why i would want to make my mortgage payment for Oct?
why not conserve the cash?
Shiller:
“The root cause of the problem is the bubble that we had, first in the stock market, and then the real estate market, which is unfolding.”
“Home prices have been falling dramatically in most places. The real issue to me is the economy and jobs and economic growth, which are jeopardized by this huge financial crisis. I’m hopeful … but we have to wait and see, though.”
“The problem is that we got into a mess because of our excess belief in these investments. Individuals and corporations – we didn’t get enough advice.”
He spoke poorly. You know he’s much more doom and gloom and he should have went with that to such a national audience. He should have mentioned LIVING BELOW YOUR MEANS and NOT RUNNING UP CC DEBT.
Corzine will be Obama’s new Secretary of Defense. His first act will be to shore up the US Budget by outsourcing Defense to China for a fraction of the cost. Savings will be used to buy McMansions for all illegal aliens.
Shore,
This is where I get confused on protocol on this site. Sorry for repeating my response on the other thread.
I think I came across as arguing your points rather than adding to them which was my intention.
I think we have too much debt. All of us including consumers, businesses, financial institutions and our government. The use of credit needs to come down in all areas for this cyclical debt spiral to stop. And I think we both agree on that?
You think consumers need to be more responsible, as do I, but I feel that the government and corporations are in a position where they can actually do something about it that would cover the whole spectrum. Instead of encouraging people and companies to spend and borrow, there should be incentives to save and pay higher wages so that real money is flowing within the economy.
Had the chance to talk to some older folks this weekend. People who were real young during the Great Dep. they all said they plan of going the there banks this week and taking a little of there saving out each day. Do any of you think we could really have a run on the big banks here in the states?
cooper (7)-
“The financial crisis makes clear how much the interests of foreign lenders have become a top concern in Washington.”
Yeah. Those interests now outweigh those of us citizens.
And we were pretty far down the list before all this started.
bairen (8)-
‘Pelosi said “We sent a message to Wall Street – the party is over…”
Yeah, right Nancy. Now, wipe off your chin, and put your clothes back on.
if you have time, listen to this testimony/banter on fannie and freddie from 2004. not promoting a candidate here, just interesting to see the tsunami building and people’s attitudes about it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs
max (29)-
“Could someone explain to me why i would want to make my mortgage payment for Oct?”
Max, I thought the same thing last night, when I saw a piece stating the judicial mtg balance cram-down was in the bill. Evidently, it is not. The provision seems to be some sort of toothless “mutual” borrower/lender workout.
However, the day a judge can alter my principal balance will be the day I default on my mortgage.
(8) barien
“We sent a message to Wall Street – the party is over.”
Pelosi could have added: For everyone….not just Wall Street.
How ironic – At a time when Americans need to save not spend, the institutions they now mistrust…. Wall Street and banks.
There should be incentives to save…agreed. Folks need some transparency to know where they should put their money – there must be tons of it on the sidelines.
“So my co-workers are wondering hot it is supposed to help blue collar types like us and I go I DONT KNOW?”
What a quaint idea, help normal folks. The idea expressed by Paulson et al. is that this helps the taxpayer by keeping the entire system from collapsing on their heads. So, one may have to live in the damp dungeon of the economy, whilst paying for the bankers etc to continue living in the penthouse but, be grateful the upper floors of the structure did not fall and crush you.
Tom,
No worries. I take no offense to anything here. I view this as a place to learn, share, explore, and discuss. Nearly everyone here keeps even strongly-held discussions of diverse opinions civil, you included.
Again, no problem.
Put Steny Hoyer on the public execution list…
Clot – from yesterday – Heroes?
They slowed the process – the word is getting- they bought some time and called attention to the crisis. In my way of thinking, that was more than anyone else was doing. And apparently, they made sure some critical changes were made to the proposal on the table.
If one has a large construction loan from WB and it gets purchased by C or other, does the full loan get transferred to purchaser?
Shore,
“The idea expressed by Paulson et al. is that this helps the taxpayer by keeping the entire system from collapsing on their heads.”
I think it’s more like the foundation is cracking taxpayers are asked to help hold the structure together, but Wall St is not willing to loose weight to make it easier to do so.
“What a quaint idea, help normal folks.”
Shore,
Yep. No discussion of creating jobs, attacking our infrastructure problems.
In the meantime, the global recession has taken center stage. Unfortunately, the mule is blind. Doesn’t stop them from overloading the wagon.
Mike Morgan gabfest this morning, 9:20.
Signup:
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2008/09/conference-call-with-mike-920am-monday.html
Ah gee – The word is getting OUT..
Cindy (41)-
The only change to that bill that will help is its defeat in both houses.
I’ll see your $700B and raise you a trillion.
I’ll see your trillion and raise you 25 Euros.
Cindy [41],
They are trying to counteract a hurricane with a ceiling fan.
C buying Wachovia’s “banking operations”. Looks like another WaMu-type bust out. Also reports the deal was brokered by the FDIC.
“Could someone explain to me why i would want to make my mortgage payment for Oct?”
I think you need to piss on your bosses back to insure you get fired so you can claim hardship too. These bailouts for people that’ can’t pay their mortgage.
Long vacation and reduced mortgage. Who said this bailout won’t help main st?
I thought kettle and some of the rest of you might like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et1N26fFapg
I’m not sure if everything is correct but I have faith in technology so I want to believe this fictional cgi thing.
Can anyone explain if what it says is correct, especially the part about the JP Morgan Bear Stearns deal?
FDIC assuming $42B on Wachovia losses.
Does anyone know if Henry Paulson is related to the late allen Paulson…T. Boone Pickens is married to The late Paulson’s widow….I found this to be an interesting coincidence
(49) BC
For the American people – this is going to need to be a process. Any action taken to inform them, is positive in my view.
As Guy Fawkes pointed out yesterday, the very nature of politics is to cover-up (to protect being re-elected) and the nature of corporations is to cover up to protect stock holders.
The actual information – the facts – though readily available to those of you here who have taken the extra effort to be informed, has not been available in the main-stream media.
Now it is. The process – for the average Joe – can now begin. You folks here are light-years ahead of us.
Bondholders and preferred saved in Wachovia deal.
Whilst we get a 42 bn reaming.
Wachovia preferred diluted, though.
Cindy (55)-
“You folks here are light-years ahead of us.”
A lot of good it’s done…
[sarcasm off]
After this 42 bn bloodletting, where does that put the FDIC’s “magic number”?
Sheila Bair had better get in the bailout line.
If not, she’ll be edged out by Amtrak, sheepherders and Sabrett vendors.
“where does that put the FDIC’s “magic number”?”
42?
Cindy,
“The actual information – the facts – though readily available to those of you here who have taken the extra effort to be informed, has not been available in the main-stream media. “
What facts and where are they? So far we still don’t know the most important details and the legislation doesn’t give any either.
The bill still gives paulson a lot of authority but now there is some oversight and transparency. But we don’t know what assets will be purchased and what mechanisms will be used to purchase those assets to determine pricing.
Right now the plan is to buy up the bad stuff they can’t sell to anyone else. If the issue is liquidity, I don’t understand why we didn’t just agree to purchase some of their good or middle of the road mortgages and securities.
That would give them enough capital to write down their loses in the junk wouldn’t it?
After all, it worked for Hirchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
Oops…C absorbs first 42 bn of loan losses, FDIC on the hook for the “rest”. Got that backwards. Sorry.
Didn’t Steel say Wachovia’s exposure was only 10 bn?
After all, it worked for Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
See, Douglass Adams was correct. The magic nmber IS 42.
i have a friend in the physical therapy field, he owns two clinic’s and subs out the billing to an outside company. the person who handles his accounts called and told him that across the board in the last six weeks ALL of the business they represent have taken a %40 loss. throw that on the existing pile (the big insurance companies already owe him for 6 months back)… so when the small biz owner dosen’t get payed by the insurance companies, they start defaulting and so on and so on and so on…
“One Thursday lunchtime the Earth is unexpectedly demolished to make way for a new hyperspace bypass. For Arthur Dent, who has only just had his house demolished that morning, this seems already to be more than he can cope with. Sadly, however, the weekend has only just begun, and the galaxy is a very strange and startling place.”
Who would have figured that Adams was looking into the future of the U.S. economy.
“we still don’t know the most important details and the legislation doesn’t give any either.”
Tom,
This is actually pretty standard. The rub comes in with respect to who fills in the gaps in the legislation. Which, everyone will remember, is the executive branch through administrative rule making. So, who will be filling in the legislative gaps? You got it, Happy Henry Paulson, the middle classes savior.
(62) Tom
“The actual information – the facts..”
I was referring to the state of banking/Wall Street today.
Tom (62)-
Tsk, tsk. The banks don’t want to part with any of their performing paper. And, after the bailout, they will never be forced to disgorge it.
And while I’m on the subject, why are we taking nothing but warrants against these Ponzi schemes? I want a Buffett-like special class of goddamned preferred stock, with about a 10% coupon!
The careless ignorance of even the simplest precepts of dealmaking- in a nutshell- is how you know this whole thing is a criminal enterprise.
If I make bad investments, my margin clerk starts selling everything- regardless of quality- to satisfy the difference. Why can’t the people who make the rules and hire the margin clerks play by their own rules?
Since Adams was correct about $@. I wonder if this character explains bu-sh:
“Zaphod Beeblebrox – the two-headed, three-armed ex-hippie and totally out to lunch president of the galaxy”
the real tragedy here is that in this environment votes think O, who has zero experience in economy, can handle economy better by almost 20 pts margin. O is ahead of M by 8 pts by the latest gallup poll. today’s futures reflect this result. i know you guys read news on european markets and wachobia, but i always look it from a different angle.
“Why can’t the people who make the rules and hire the margin clerks play by their own rules?”
Clot,
That’s called capitalism.
oops, “Since Adams was correct about $@” the $@ should be 42
Cindy,
It wasn’t the media that was lying to us about the real state of the economy. It was people like Bernanke and Paulson that were telling us everything was ok.
There were people that were saying this was going to happen for a long time.
So when “Zaphod Beeblebrox ” spoke this morning, did it matter? Also, when the vote happens around noon, it will be interesting to see if ANY Ds vote before a majority of R’s vote in favor. If the D’s vote first, they allow the R’s to vote no and cast themselves as defending the middle class — as born again populists.
I’m surprised none of the trolls have said “You people who hate america need to stop you’re whining. Main St has it easy. Yeah, you may have one or two mortgages against your house that you’re having trouble paying, but Wall Street has like 4 or 5 against your house” yet.
Stu,
How did the Gator do with the flight?
This, from a summary of Douglas Adams’ third book actually does seem to apply to the current situation:
“Now only five individuals stand between the killer robots of Krikkit and their goals of annihilation. They are Arthur Dent, a mild mannered space and time traveller, who tries to learn how to fly by throwing himself at the ground and missing; Ford Prefect, his best friend who decides to go insane to see if he likes it; Slartibartfast, the indomitable vice president of the campaign for Real Time, who travels in a ship powered by irrational behaviour”
Krikkit = Wall Street
Killer robots of Krikkit = Paulson et al.
Slartibartfast = Our beloved Veep
Ford Prefect = I am not sure if this is congress, the public, or someone else.
“five individuals” Sane members of congress and other rational experts calling for modification of the plan.
Wachovia is gone. Banking ops sold to Citi.
Boy, does my backside hurt this morning. Wonder why?
TED @ 3.32, wow.
Great Leader’s words of wisdom:
7:34 A.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. Yesterday, leaders here in Washington reached an extraordinary agreement to deal with an extraordinary problem in our economy. Working closely with my administration, congressional leaders from both parties produced the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act — a bold bill that will help keep the crisis in our financial system from spreading throughout our economy.
This legislation deals with complex issues, and negotiators were asked to address them in a very short period of time. I appreciate the leadership of members on both sides of the aisle, who came together when our nation was counting on them. Negotiations are sometimes difficult, but their hard work and cooperation paid off.
The bipartisan economic rescue plan addresses the root cause of the financial crisis — the assets related to home mortgages that have lost value during the housing decline. Under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, the federal government will be authorized to purchase these assets from banks and other financial institutions, which will help free them to resume lending to businesses and consumers.
The bill also includes other important ideas put forward by members of Congress from both parties. For example, the bill requires the establishment of a guarantee program that will insure assets at no cost to the taxpayer. The bill provides strong, bipartisan oversight so Americans can be certain that their tax dollars are used carefully and wisely. The bill ensures that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars.
With this strong and decisive legislation, we will help restart the flow of credit, so American families can meet their daily needs and American businesses can make purchases, ship goods, and meet their payrolls. We’ll make clear that the United States is serious about restoring confidence and stability in our financial system.
I know many Americans are worried about the cost of the bill, and I understand their concern. This bill commits up to 700 billion taxpayer dollars, because a large amount of money is necessary to have an impact on our financial system. However, both the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget expect that the ultimate cost to the taxpayer will be far less than that. In fact, we expect that over time, much — if not all — of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.
Now that this legislation has been agreed to by leaders of both parties, it must be passed by houses — both houses of Congress. And I fully understand that this will be a difficult vote. But with the improvements made to this bill, I’m confident that members of both parties will support it. Congress can send a strong signal to markets at home and abroad by passing this bill promptly. Every member of Congress and every American should keep in mind: A vote for this bill is a vote to prevent economic damage to you and your community.
This has been a volatile time for our financial system and our economy. Even with the important steps we’re taking to address the current crisis, we will continue to face serious challenges. The impact of the credit crisis and the housing correction will continue to pressure our financial system and impact the growth of our economy for some time. But I’m confident that this rescue plan — along with other measures taken by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve — will begin to restore strength and stability to America’s financial system and overall economy. And I’m confident that in the long run, America will overcome these challenges and remain the most dynamic and productive economy in the world.
Thank you.
END 7:38 A.M. EDT
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/09/20080929.html
This blog has officially vaulted into ultimate greatness with references to Hitchhikers. Kudos to all.
“TED @ 3.32, wow.”
Tosh,
Bailout Bust! Now, how do we bailout the bailout?
So, between the “good news about Wachovia” and the bailout soon to be adopted, do the markets rise 5% today in an orgy of optimism, or what?
We will have to invent a new class of numbers to describe the level of world-wide debt that is coming home to roost. Billions, trillions, and zillions won’t be enough. Until this morning the Europeans were hoping this was an American problem. When small business in Germany can’t get loans to cover payroll while they wait for acocunts receivable, it will become apparent how much worthless paper the euro banks have been hiding on the balance sheets. In Germany, government officials sit on the board of every bank and publicly held company so the political backlash will be insane when a country that has lived through two major inflations gets hit with bank runs. It’s only hear-say but all my German friends tell me the number one problem for small business is that customers don’t pay their bills.
Clot,
But do you think that would have achieved the same stated goals of the bailout?
And any thoughts about SKF now? Is their strategy stronger than their level of leverage?
The thing that worries me the most is that if they could start a do-not-short list, couldn’t the banks kill off the leveraged ETFs by cutting off their capital in some way and blaming it on the credit crunch?
Props to Clot for breaking WB news first. I didn’t go back far enough in thread.
Now, how do we bailout the bailout?
I say we dust off and nuke it from orbit, it’s the only way to be sure.
/geek off
Shore:
She arrived home at 11:30pm. Exactly 2 hours late. I am extra tired this Monday morning though.
Shore,
Did something happen between M and O during the bailout meeting?
Maybe I’m reading too much into it but I saw some reports that they both didn’t talk to reporters when they came out of it and then they weren’t part of any follow up sessions.
Then there seemed to be some tension during the debate.
I’m getting the sense that they got into some sort of slap fight during the meeting and were told to go up to their rooms without dinner.
And here is the key line to GWB’s speech.
“With this strong and decisive legislation, we will help restart the flow of credit, so American families can meet their daily needs …”
What the F?
#14 & 15 Tom:
When Bi was jumping up and down in joy with the earlier 300 million home owner bailout, I did point out that it was more smoke and mirrors than substance. The conditions to qualify for a loan modification were stiff enough for most recent entrants to the housing market to qualify.
Firstly many of the folks who took the toxic mortgages cannot qualify at a normal 30 year rate or even for a conventional mortgage. How the hell are these people going to qualify for a 30 year FHA mortgage?? They don’t have the incomes to have bought the 500K house in the first place and short of giving them a 300% raise in salary (assuming they have a job) it’s impossible to qualify these people even to a reduced mortgage with an FHA rate.
“With this strong and decisive legislation,” President Bush said, “we will help restart the flow of credit so American families can meet their daily needs and American businesses can make purchases, ship goods and meet their payrolls.”
___________________
It’s sad that most American families need credit to meet their daily needs !!
[86] shore,
I don’t think so. Futures were down last I checked, and I think that the hopes of people to sell into today’s rally are quickly being dashed.
Rather, I expect this is the day when we see final capitulation.
With WB wiped out (fortunately, I already dumped most of what I had left), I have involuntarily reached my capitulation point. Any investments I have left, I am holding for years in the hope that it recovers, and new investments will be extremely conservative.
Time to close the hatch and seal the bunker.
Now that the mismanaged, the misguided, and the unwise have been bailed out, it is time to advocate a stimulus bill for those of us who acted responsibility, followed the rules and acted with prudence thest past several years. There are not many of us, it seems, therefor sending us each $500,000.00 or so, so that we may responsibly invest it to strengthen the overall economy would seem a rational act. It can be paid for by a tax on TVs over 30″, personal watercraft, trucks for anyone who lives outside a rural community and where more than 50 percent of the roads are paved, vacations whose purchase price is left on a credit card over 30 days, cars and trucks costing over $50,000, boats costing over $100,000, shirts costing over $150, and assorted other items.
AntiTrump: I don’t need credit, but lord help us if they get rid of my credit cards. How else am I going to get Amex and Mastercard to pay for all of my air travel and cruises.
This really is a crisis!
Stu,
Don’t fret. Before long, the cruise ships may be docked and serving as homeless shelters, kind of like was discussed after Katrina.
Shore Guy (97):
“There are not many of us, it seems, therefor sending us each $500,000.00 or so, so that we may responsibly invest it to strengthen the overall economy”
Think it would be possible for them to lift the shorting ban first? Otherwise, I wouldn’t know where to invest it.
In China, they are actually doing the right thing. They have finally allowed their investors to short which will help stop the 60% fall their markets have experienced this year. Interesting eh?
Shore – So when the FDIC says they took no hit from Wachovia, it’s like Arthur saying, “Safe? Ah, this is obviously some new definition of the word safe that I was previously unaware of.”
(76) Tom
“It wasn’t the media that was lying to us about the real state of the economy.”
That wasn’t the point. The alternative view was not readily available to the general public BECAUSE they only heard Ben and Hank on the nightly news.
Look, I have apologized several times here (trying to represent the general, uninformed public) for not being more aware. The fact is that we are only now waking up to the concept that our country is in a crisis. This is a lot of information to absorb….That’s why I think it needs to be a process. At least now Ben and Hank are being exposed.
If this bill really creates some transparency and reforms abuses, it could help. That alone might be its only value, but I see the information element as essential. People are now furious that things got this out of hand before they were informed by their leaders.
Fool me once, shame on you..fool me twice, shame on me…..
About Wachovia,
I have been banking in a branch in Spring Lake since the days of Jimmy Carter. That particular branch has changed names, perhaps a dozen times, as the bank has gotten absorbed into ever larger ones. First Union anyone? Now I will need all new depisit slips, cheques, etc.
I think someone here needs a little bailout. Should we introduce something like a driving license for credit applications. It could be a little card people get when they pass the written test, that says that they have a basic understanding of how the system works. In this case it could say on the front; “The holder understands that the difference between the trade in and the amount you owe on the car does not get paid off by the tooth fairy”
My husband and I purchased a 2007 Chev Silverado on 3/31/2007 and have been trying to get the dealership to explain to us why the purchase price of the truck was higher than the sticker price. We have learned that they took our trade ins, paid them off but didn’t tell us that most of the money we owed on them was added back to the price of our new truck.
They say it’s listed on our contract that way but we haven’t been able to get them to show us were! We have heard of this but thought it was illegal to do this. In our contract it says under the arbitration laws, rule 20) violation of Florida’s Deceptive & Unfair Trade Practices Act they cannot add to the cash price of a vehicle as defined in 520.02(2) any fee or charge other than those provided in that section & in rule 3D-50.001, Florida Adm. Code. All fees or charges permitted to be added to the cash price must be fully disclosed to the customers in all binding contracts concerning the vehicles selling price. We went to the States Attorney and got nothing! We went to consumer fraud division of Florida and got nowhere. Anything you can do would be greatly appreciated.
We have suffered a financial break down in our home because the payments on the truck are so high and we can’t get the dealership to compromise on this contract. All we want is the money back they overcharged us on the vehicle. Then the price would go down, the payments would go down. Nevermind the stress it has caused us trying to get someone to look at what they have done and fix it!
It really doesn’t matter if the plan passes or not. Either way, our children will be punished for the misbehavior of their elders.
AntiTrump,
As I mentioned in my blog post, the $300 bln bailout doesn’t appear to be that effective.
Most workouts involve extending the term and reducing the interest rate. Few seem to be reducing the principle.
To be able to get into the FHA program the primary and secondary lenders will need to agree to a reduction in principle that represents 90% of the current fair market value. The secondary lien holders seem to want a bigger peice of the pie, which means primary lien holders are better off going to foreclosure. That’s what I think this new bailout is for.
It’s like the banks are saying if the government wants to give breaks to the borrowers, buy the mortgages yourself and do it.
@DINJ: This blog vaulted into greatness when Duck exposed his crack.
We all have different standards for greatness.
;)
Stu,
Who would have figured that the biggest commie country would have a firmer grasp on capitalism than we do.
The reason why I had asked my earlier question about the relationship between Henry Paulson and T Boone Pickens is because I came across this link http://www.reuters.com/article/newIssuesNews/idUSN1162472020071211
I know that Henry was a big wig with Goldman Sachs…and it seems that every google search I do for BP capital which is Pickens hedge fund (which has lost nearly a billion dollars this year) seems to pop up. Is this a coincidence that Allen Paulson’s (who died) wife is the current bride of T Boone Pickens??????
Seems like there is some connection here.
Also Pickens seems to be in the back pocket of Obama with all of his windmill ideas….notice how Obama is so pro-wind and not keen on the nuclear
Bottom line is I smell some shenanigans here…maybe I’m overreacting????
“Most workouts involve extending the term and reducing the interest rate. Few seem to be reducing the principle.”
NONE should reduce the principal.
Stu’s bailout plan:
Raise the interest rate to encourage those to save. Those who are struggling to pay their mortgage will not make it anyway due to their diminishing wage. So who cares it increases defaults. We should get to the housing bottom as quickly as possible so we can rebuild that much sooner. All this delay and bailout is doing is making people less likely to save and wasting our childrens’ future.
If we raise interest rates, the banks will be less insolvent and businesses could get back to borrowing. Consumerism would diminish as people might actually want to make money off of their money, rather than waste it on TVs.
And start some infrastructure projects already. It took me 2 hours to go 12 miles on NJ Transit last Wednesday. The loss of production from the 1,000 people on the train is mind boggling.
Now to watch the market open :P
Nice opening drop. It is a good thing Beeblebrox came out to speak to the markets this morning.
Next GTG at the restaurant at the edge of the universe?
Currently Republican Gary Millar is speaking at the house, He said he knows the people don’t want this but we just don’t understand the complexities, he then went on to say people won’t be able to re-fiance homes -yeah okay so what- people won’t be able to take out car loans- buy a car you can afford! I don’t think it’s complex it’s simple,especially if your explaining it like that.
KL
Cindy,
Most of the times in the news they have someone to counter each position, even if it’s a minority view point.
I think people didn’t want the party to end and ignored anything that said the party was coming to an end.
You might like this article. There’s a video with Peter Schiff and Art Laffer on Kudlow and Cramer in 2006.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=52356&t=01007146184382914537
It’s pretty funny listening to what Laffer is saying now. Well funny in a oh my god the world as going to pot kind of way.
For the record I do not own Wachovia Bonds.
I do own a 5K NCC bond and want to get this groups opinion. Should I dump it at cents on a dollar now or should I risk waiting to see if and when Congress passes the bill which if NCC survives the week will cause a temp pop in their stock price as short term it is good short term but long term they still have the same old problems and use that opportunity to buy a put on the stock and then hope my put expires worthless and the bond matures.
Thank God I was only buying 5K pieces of risk firms bonds and called it a day back in March on Bank bonds and started safer stuff.
I think a lot of people bought Fannie, FreddieLehman, AIG, Bear and Wamu at 2-20 a share in the weeks before their collaspes and lost everything. I count my blessings on that. I am a big bear of FS but when things get so cheap you get tempted against your better judgement. Hindsight is 20/200 and if I was psyic I would have better the 90 over on yesterday;s jets game.
“he then went on to say people won’t be able to re-fiance homes”
KL,
Did he also state that their collateral has declined by approx 20% and will continue to decline? Therefore, if they want to refinance they must bring cash to the table?
Ok… anyone interested in starting a NJRER Credit Union? Seriously.
Tom [113],
Art Laffer belongs next to Jimmy Hofffa.
I am sorry I did’nt catch his name but he just had a classic line that I hope will one day be a famous quote. He said,
” I wish we had a president with communications skills, and also had the trust of the American people so this would be easier for our constituints would want to pass this bill, but we don’t”
KL
Shore-
Posted this late last night.
It sounds like you have ties to Congress.
Any idea what M and O are like personally? I hear that M is not really liked by his peers. Any idea on O?
Come on it’s obvious the market is going to initially drop…..big…then they are going to announce the big bail-out and that refreshing WIND is going to hit the floor! Stocks will soar then all will be well!!! The bailout to the rescue. All will be fine for the first few months then the dollar will be so amazingly devalued in 6 months that the real shit is going to hit the fan.
Citigroup will pay Wachovia about $2.16 billion in stock and assume Wachovia senior and subordinated debt, totaling about $53 billion.
Now this is crazy, Citi wiped the common and paid the bondholders. Each deal changest the rules. When you do that people stop buying.
here are the relevant details of the Wachovia deal from the WSJ:
“The FDIC also has entered into a loss-sharing arrangement on a pre-identified pool of loans under which Citigroup will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans, with the FDIC covering anything beyond that. Citigroup has granted the FDIC $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants to compensate the FDIC for bearing the risk.”
In short, this seems to be a major blow to the FDIC.
“Art Laffer belongs next to Jimmy Hofffa.”
BC,
Is that why people are so eager to find Hoffa?
Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia said it will remain a public company with two main subsidiaries: Wachovia Securities and Evergreen Asset Management. Under terms of the deal, Citigroup will pay about $2.1 billion to Wachovia and assume senior and subordinated debt. The deal is expected to close before year-end.
What?
d2b I don’t know them personally. I have worked with their staff but not them.
TED now @ 3.48. Things are sure getting all metly.
question is whether the FDIC exposure to these $270B of Wachovia loans will be temporary if they are taken off books by the broader bailout. one would hope so
#126 – Melty, they’re getting melty.
God I suck in the morning.
“Now this is crazy, Citi wiped the common and paid the bondholders. Each deal changest the rules. When you do that people stop buying.”
John,
Wall Street to Main Street investors: “Empty your pockets, we need the cash.”
“#126 – Melty, they’re getting melty.”
Tosh,
Got Melty?
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — As much as $37 billion from federal bailout loans to American International Group Inc. has gone to investment banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the firm Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson used to run.
Without the government money, Goldman, Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and other firms could have become some of the biggest creditors in a bankruptcy filing by AIG, the world’s largest insurer, because of its billions in losses on subprime bonds and corporate debt.
In all of the explanations of the bailout this weekend, the politicians/talking heads left out the most crucial justifications. I don’t know if this was simple ignorance or by design so as not to frighten people. But this is not just about people being able to get mortgages and car loans. this is about making sure (or reasonably sure) that your paycheck will continue to clear and that there will be money in the ATM when you go to withdraw it. it is that basic
Melty:
Sounds like what is happening to the 401k statements of folks around the countyr. Or, as Margaret Hamilton put it, “I’m melting, melting, melting. Oh, what a world.”
“this is about making sure (or reasonably sure) that your paycheck will continue to clear and that there will be money in the ATM when you go to withdraw it. it is that basic”
Indeed. AND it is a shame that our elected leaders have failed to come clean fully about that. God forbid they should treat voters like adults.
Ok… anyone interested in starting a NJRER Credit Union? Seriously.
Close, NJVF (New Jersey Vulture Fund).
BAA2/BBB 300 64579FKV4 NEW JERSEY HCF FIN AU REV Zero 07/01/36-17 7.500(M) 12.964 NJ N
I have not seen a 7.5% NJ muni since I was hanging out at Malibu in parachute pants listing to Flock of Seagulls!!!!!!!!!
That is AMT Tax free 7.5%
I think people know they are being lied to. They’re just not quite sure how. Our gov’t has zero credibility at this point among the population. these are very scary conditions. we are lucky our military is pretty busy right now overseas.
Fed expanding its swap facility & TAF size. Outstanding swap lines no $620b.
Wow, NCC down almost %50. It’s getting hard to keep up with all the action this morning.
Chances of gold going up $100 today?
On the real estate front. We went to look at an open house yesterday. I promised my wife I would behave,and I really did try.
The realtor said we should look around, and if we had any questions she would be available.
Well she followed us throughout the house babbling on incessantly about how the house was custom built in the 1950’s. I commented that the kitchen was ancient, she informed me it was a something or other custom kitchen from 1950’s.
I really tried to remain silent as per my wife’s request. Finally when we were leaving she asked what I thought. I said it needed too much work, she replies well a smiliar house had been remodeled and than sold last for 600k.
I informed her that we are in a whole new environment,and that becasue of that I did not see the need to over pay for some ranch that had not seen a paint brush since Nixon was President, especially in light of all that is going on.
I am walking out the door and she is hounding me about what did I mean by those comments, and she is a long time/full time realtor, she knows the market.
My wife said once we were back in the car, I thought I told you not to say anything.
I said I really tried,and had she kept her word and not followed us around babbling, I would have.
09/29 07:28 *DJ National City Raised To Outperform By Oppenheimer >NCC
Mrs. Whitney actually likes a stock!!!
CDS on several countries way up. Geeezz.
Montclair Volvo closes today. If I am not mistaken, that was the last car dealer in Monctlair.
#124 John: Wachovia has a large commerical real estat operation, I have seen any word as to what is going to happen to that peice of the business.
They would had survived if only people working on Wall Street valued safety, or if thay had a liquor license.
Interesting porvision in the TARP, SEC can suspend mark-to-market accounting:
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/09/feel-free-to-make-up-numbers.html
Why would anybody invest in any bank or financial institution in this country if they are allowed to lie with impunity as to the value of their assets?
Geoffrey Beene & Pfalzcraft closing at Jackson Oulets.
I know all disclaimers;
Does anyone have any thoughts on aapl? Its taking bath today, down to 110.
thanks in advance,
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!
“Wachovia did not fail; rather, it is to be acquired by Citigroup Inc on an open bank basis with assistance from the FDIC,” the agency said in a statement on its website.
149 –
Looks like people aren’t going to be buying iPhones and other overpriced cr@p from AAPL anytime soon.
Just said by a Dem from Texas, this bill is “Fueled by fear and hinges on haste.”
Montclair Volvo closes today. If I am not mistaken, that was the last car dealer in Monctlair.
And up goes a 30 story condo tower named “Tuscany” on the lot.
Franlky, once one gets beyond the Apple hype, the Zune is a better player.
3b [141],
Welcome to the dark side! :)
Egads! I have a bird stuck in my fireplace.
#153 grim: Maybe not.
“But this is not just about people being able to get mortgages and car loans. this is about making sure (or reasonably sure) that your paycheck will continue to clear and that there will be money in the ATM when you go to withdraw it. it is that basic”
skep-tic,
There were talks about this on the floor and in CBO Director Orszag’s testimony on the bailout to the budget committee. The link to the video is at the bottom of that page in the link. 2hrs but worth seeing and explains everything. I recommend anyone that wants to understand more about the bailout take the time to watch it.
Basically, the problem is, just like homeowners that borrowed more than they could afford, companies relied on the cheap credit to fund operations and didn’t save are in the same boat. But large and small businesses are “highly leveraged” while home buyers are greedy sumovabeeches that got themselves in trouble.
I kind of like the Vovlo C30. Not particularly relevant, I know. I suppose liking a Volvo (other than the P1800) is final confirmation that I’ve become old.
“And up goes a 30 story condo tower named “Tuscany” on the lot.”
Maybe it should be renamed Pompeii.
#155 gary: No dark side!! I would think it is incredibly funny, if it were not so pathetic.
AHHH, actual mention of “our posterity” in the debate.
#157 – The Zune is pretty decent. The software side is limited to PC though, if I’m not mistaken.
I just got a Sansa Muze; $90 for a 4gb with video, podcasts, and radio (hint, hint apple) is a pretty good deal. The interface is fairly well implemented as well.
Tom– everyone was greedy except for us. Now we are the greedy ones (salivating while people suffer).
Dow at 10.8K
Whoops!
“I suppose liking a Volvo (other than the P1800) is final confirmation that I’ve become old.”
I like the Toyota Avalon. I also wear my pants up to my armpits
It’s a Buick for me or nothing.
If that vote doesn’t pass, wow!
I expect it to pass though.
Did anyone listen to Morgan’s call this ayem? He was responding to a question about someone who had not bought RE in the past few years and felt they should have to take advantage of the bailout. I missed his response, anyone? Clot?
Stu,
I would not be surprised at this point to see it below 10K before election day.
they should’ve voted yesterday
Learning all about lifeguarding today. The things one learns from congress,
shore guy, 162
Hmmmph… posterity?
More like posterIOR as in where the taxpayer and his heirs are gonna be taking it….
sl
Skep,
I am impressed they got back for debate this early today. They tend to go home on weekends and not get back to town until late monday or early tues. They are not used to working on monday mornings.
3b [161],
You tell me why these asking prices are where they are? What forces are keeping them at this level in our area?
Looks like people aren’t going to be buying iPhones and other overpriced cr@p from AAPL anytime soon.
And Google Android will not help sales.
“What forces are keeping them at this level in our area?”
Dark forces. Bush.
“Tom– everyone was greedy except for us. Now we are the greedy ones (salivating while people suffer).”
I was just thinking about this the other day, but it’s us watching and salivation that are paying for it.
These Judge Anybody tv shows are like this whole thing. A bunch of them have sprung up lately but I haven’t really watched since Judge Wapner and Rusty were on.
I caught the tail end of one of them lately and there was a message that explained each party in the suit gets $5,000 to appear and the judgment is withdrawn from that amount.
So while people are watching and laughing at the dirtbag defendant that screwed over the idiot plaintiff, in the end the people watching are paying for it by supporting the program so it can generate ad revenue.
Shore: Dow 8K in 2009. I’m glad they didn’t announce yesterday. It was a blessing in disguise. I covered a few more of my shorts after this mornings bounce downward. After bill passes and euphoria weens, I will reload.
Ween!
In all seriousness, anyone who turns on a TV or opens a newspaper realizes most sellers/realtors are living in a dreamworld. 90% of the houses on the market are effectively not for sale, they are so distant from reality.
GA Rep “This Bill is a huge cow parry with a marshmellow stuck in it and I am not going to eat that cow patty.”
Do yourselves a favor and just watch clips of Bill Hicks on youtube…he called this long ago
regarding the bailout.
Ignore it! This bailout is just another form of bread and circus on a grand scale.
A 5 trillion $ bailout would not fix what cannot be fixed. We must understand and recognize that the system has seized up because everyone has reached their maximum debt carrying capacity. Any money handed out at this point, whether 1$ or 1 trillion $ will not help. Money given to the banks and IB’s will only exacerbate the long term consequences of this gluttonous debt binge.
We as individuals, as a nation, and as a global community has taken “money as debt” to its ultimate conclusion.
The smarter move is to focus on the long term consequences of the deleveraging we are entering. those consequences are not going to change. The best the government can do is delay the inevitable.
#182 – clips of Bill Hicks on youtube
Good stuff!
patty that is, not parry, though there does appear to be some thrust and parry.
Tom 52
Yes, that is the gist of what has/is going on, including the JPM bear stearns stuff
” We must understand and recognize that the system has seized up because everyone has reached their maximum debt carrying capacity.”
Kettle– wouldn’t you agree that there are 2 issues: a solvency issue and a liquidity issue? I agree on the solvency point— there is nothing that can be done here. But if liquidity is not maintained, it makes the solvency problem worse and spreads it to otherwise healthy institutions
“Now we are the greedy ones”
skep,
Quite the contrary, just looking for 30-40% off 2005.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqBOMBSDQsI
Here is some bill 4 ya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqs9ap3iV-4&feature=related
and 1 more 4 ya
Question –
I have Jan Puts of WB @10.00. Looks like there is no volume at all, but huge open interest.
How does this play out? Apologize for the dense question.
#188 BC Bob:Quite the contrary, just looking for 30-40% off 2005.
And that could be on the low side.
I saw Bill Hicks’ Revelations HBO special at about 3am one Sat. night in the early 90’s. I was in a heavy duty R.A Wilson/metaphysics/Foucault’s Pendulum phase right then and it was like Bill and I were in perfect sync. I was absolutely bowled over by his stuff.
It was 3am though and I forgot to right down his name and promptly forgot it when I got up the next day. I kept trying to remember who this guy was on and off over the next few years (they never played that special on HBO all that much) only to find out that he had passed away not long after I first saw him. Such is life.
If there ever was a time that needed a voice like his, someone to scream that things are not right, it is right now. Instead we have David Blaine.
“And that could be on the low side.”
3b,
I agree.
Dude – The bailout’s gonna go through!!! Back to flipping houses (btw: why’s the Dow down 250?)
“Back to flipping houses”
This time with bulldozers?
Has anyone see a Whip count for the bill?
How can stocks plunge without there being “speculating short sellers”?
Kanjorski, from Scranton, has made some very powerful statements. They would be worth posting.
Victorian Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 10:42 am
if you had position friday. you hit a lottery. if you are trying to do it today, you are trying to hit a lottery. since the underlining security(WB)is held, no trading in options accordingly.
>Question –
I have Jan Puts of WB @10.00. Looks like there is no volume at all, but huge open interest.
How does this play out? Apologize for the dense question.
#175 gary: Denial, fear, ignorance, no other choice, but the misguided belief that perhaos they can just find one mroe person who will pay their price?
I honestly do not know, any combination of the above, perhaps desperation?
As I have said before, in the early 90’s people were much more realistic when tryoig to sell in a down market.
I was one of them. Once we knew what it would take to sell our house, we took it off the market once the listing expired. We did not want to take the hit.
All I know, is that unless absolutley necessary, there is no reason to buy a house right now, and sellers can ask all they want, but I am not paying,and it appears many others are not either, if inventory available is any guide, that and or people cannot get mortgages.
A couple of long time realtors in my town said we would never see a listing again under 400k, well now we have about 10 or 12, and they are all sitting. Next leg down 350K and down they go. In my drive around yesterday I was surpirsed to see that there are still a number of teardowns being rebuilt as McM’s,and working on a Sunday!!
There were also a few couple that looked they have not seen any a activity for quite some time. These will be added to the 15 or 20 McM’s that have been rotting on the market for months.
skep-tic 187,
I want to try and answer that question, mainly to see if I’m correct and if not maybe someone can clear it up.
From what I understand, a liquidity issue may be hiding an insolvency issue. That’s what Orszag was saying.
Because some of these assets’ values cannot be determined, we don’t know who is and who isn’t insolvent.
The way I understand derivatives, which are a big portion of this mess, it’s like getting a margin call.
You invest $10k in a security. The value of that security increases to $12k in a week then $15k a month later. You think to yourself, man I’m an investing God! Why didn’t I do this sooner!?!?!?!?
You do some more normal trades and eventually you have $30k invested and a $50k portfolio.
You start getting a little fancier and start buying options. You’re doing so great in options eventually they’re a considerable part of your portfolio.
Now you’re options have some sort of value but not really. If the outlook changes it doesn’t take much to make them worth anything. If a stock drops 20% you can still recover 20% but that same drop can make the option worthless.
But you’re pretty confident in your skills and decide you want to make even more money but you start trading on margin. Things are going pretty good and you’re borrowing against your securities and options to invest in even more. You’re basically trading on your large unrealized gains. It’s not real money yet, or at least it hasn’t been plucked from the ether and converted to anything tangible, but you don’t have cash to invest and don’t want to sell your positions. So you’re trading on thin air. It’s all ok as long as the market goes well.
At some point, some of the assets lose value and your broker calls in your margin loan and needs to sell some off to get paid. Problem is, a bunch of your assets cannot be marked to market and/because he can’t find a buyer. So neither of you know if you’re going to take a hit or be completely wiped out.
To anyone that knows more about this stuff… Does that sound right?
Is that what’s going on with MBS, CDO’s etc? The poker chip anology from the other day was very good by the way, forgot who posted it.
One thing I haven’t been able to see, provided my above analogy is correct. Would it be the securities used as colateral to buy options, options used as colateral to buy securities, or a mix?
#174 shore:They are not used to working on monday mornings.
They are not used to working, period.
#169 seneca: How would they take advantage of this bailout??
Just talked to my buddy at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage….GOOD LUCK getting a loan haha….I have impeccable credit and he said it would still be a struggle in today’s climate…I’ll keep renting for now. The days of strolling in with 3-5 percent down and marginal credit are long gone…this housing market will be in the crapper for a looong time
Just 3 years ago, on this site, the greedy, of today, were called wannabes. At that time, the wannabes, of today, were called market mavens/geniuses. Markets are amazing, no?
to me, today is the end of the tunnel. look at C and WFC. they are moving up! all these four major banks will be safe since most of them got good deal from fed. some local banks may go under in the future but their impact to the banking sector will be comparably small compared with WB, WM, FRE, FNM and CFC.
all disclaimers apply.
“Kanjorski, from Scranton, has made some very powerful statements.”
That seems out of character compared to his dry wit and pranks on Dwight. But I don’t watch The Office much.
#206 – Just 3 years ago, on this site, the greedy, of today, were called wannabes
Ah, yes. The “bitter renters” argument.
Just talked to my buddy at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage….GOOD LUCK getting a loan haha….I have impeccable credit and he said it would still be a struggle in today’s climate…
I’m seeing few, if any, problems for qualified borrowers.
You want a suicide loan? Sorry, won’t happen.
But if you’ve got a strong FICO, 20%, and the income to support the purchase? Not a problem, loans getting made as fast as they ever were.
#207 – Sure, until C or BAC themselves buy the farm.
You ain’t seen nothing yet!!!!!!! Back in the day I remember Excel bank was only making NYC coop loans that were 100% collateralized. If you wanted a 300K loan you ACATed or wire transferred 300K of Investment Grade Secutires, bonds, cds that was marked to market and they “lent” you 300K so you could get the tax break. Loan was also collateralized by the apartment.
kevin Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Just talked to my buddy at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage….GOOD LUCK getting a loan haha….I have impeccable credit and he said it would still be a struggle in today’s climate…I’ll keep renting for now. The days of strolling in with 3-5 percent down and marginal credit are long gone…this housing market will be in the crapper for a looong time
Grim…The key being the 20% down.
“The days of strolling in with 3-5 percent down and marginal credit are long gone…this housing market will be in the crapper for a looong time”
Kevin,
To my knowledge, not one of our elected officials addressed this point. They can s#it dollars, it does not matter. Credit will be tight for years to come. You can’t blow the credit/debt markets through the roof and then expect the deleveraging to disappear with a stroke of the pen. Strictly, wishful thinking. The RE market will continue its decline for years to come. The only question, how severe and duration.
“That seems out of character compared to his dry wit and pranks on Dwight. But I don’t watch The Office much.”
Huh? I have never seen the Office. Is there a character in it with the same name as the local House Mamber?
Grim…The key being the 20% down.
Oh absolutely, but the issue is that borrowers are confusing mortgage market liquidity with their own ability to own a home. Money is there, they just can’t afford to own a home. Suppose it is easy to confuse the two, given the easy-money-market we lived through.
Member, even
“The days of strolling in with 3-5 percent down and marginal credit are long gone…this housing market will be in the crapper for a looong time”
Good. It is about time.
HA HA – 20% down is a joke. When I bought my coop in 1992 the banks that had good rates wanted 25% down. 20% was subprime. The upside is 25% was easy to do in 1992 than 10% was in 1989. As housing prices fall it is easier and easier to make a larger down payment. The main purpose of 5% was with 600K capes the only way many couples could save up was to do 5% which is 30K. When capes are 200K that same 30K. 15%.
Stu Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Grim…The key being the 20% down.
#203 3b
I am not sure, I didn’t understand the question but I was curious to hear the answer. I assume the idea was that you could have bought more house than you could afford, and if timed right, with a bailout that might include a reduced mortgage rate and lower principal balance, you can stay in your home for far less $ per month than you originally signed on for.
If you still have a job and can make the reduced payments, its like you had waited for the market to tank but with the added benefit of living in your own home for the past few years. I know the majority of buyers who got in during 2005-2006 won’t be able to make even the reduced payments but I suspect there are some out there who can work the system to get reduced payments.
Its like buying a new dress off the rack and then everytime it goes on sale for less, heading back to the store for a refund. In the meantime, you get to wear a pretty new dress.
With the statements coming from the Rs, the Dems would be nuts to cast a single yes vote until the majority of the Rs cast yes votes. Stu, can the Dems be so stupid as to walk into a Republican chain saw?
Defazio is up!!!
I actually tried to get a loan last week and i make a 6 figure salary with impeccable credit…the down side is he told me I had to have 20 percent down because it was a condo purchase….Evidently Wells Fargo will not talk unless you have 20 percent down on a condo or townhouse and the 3000,000 dollar place doesn’t look as good when I have to come up with 60,000 bucks….It’s killing the young home buyers like myself who just don’t have 60 grand laying around!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Damn!
The bill is being b!tch slapped!! Big Time!!
For those interested –
Live Feed –
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN_wm.aspx
300,000 i meant obviously
Kevin,
Earning 6 figures, one should be able to get the necessary downpayment funds in 3 years.
Tom
It is very confusing and I can just make an educated guess at this.
A good analogy is the S&P500. It has 500 stocks and at any point in time I can look at the value of the underlying companies and work out a price. Now if I have an Index fund that holds a basket of major indexes. CAC40 FTSE100, NIKKEI225, S&P500. I can still at any point go back to the vaule of the underlying companies, and look at the base value, but the ammount of time that will take will be increased as I have more companies to look into and multiple currencies to deal with,
At the end of the day your can work out the exact value of these illiquid instruments, it is just that the process of calculating them is a huge job as the instrument may have slivers of thousands of mortgages. In that case you would have to go back to each mortgage to work out it fundamentals and then work forward.
# 214 BC Bob:The only question, how severe and duration.
I think IMO it is pretty safe to say the declines will be severe, as far as duration, well last time around prices as you know were flat for years, once we hit bottom.
And last time around as compared to now, was much less severe in so many ways.
#223 kevin: unless you really want one, do not buy a condo, better off with a SFH for the long , and mean long term.
i just got outta school though…i really dint want to wait 3 years
“The bill is being b!tch slapped!! Big Time!!”
Victorian,
Almost entirely by the Rs. The Dems are largely speaking out in favor of it, even if holding their noses.
One can see it now, the Bill will pass with nearly no R support and when it does not fix the problem the Rs will point to the borow and spend Dems. Any D who votes before swwing a majority of Rs vote “Yea” should get spanked at election time.
“i just got outta school though…i really dint want to wait 3 years”
No offense intended but get over it. Just out of school with 6 figures is a nice position. If you can’t live frugally for a couple years to come up with downpayment money then so be it. One does not always get what one wants when one wants it.
well i was in school for 8 years…i can wait but it just would have been nice to get a mortgage…i’ve rented this long I can wait…my point is until they lax the system buyers like me are shut out
So do we have new predictions on percent decline of house prices in the next year? This past spring I said I thought national home prices according to NAR would be down 10% by the end of this year. As of August, they were down 9.5% YoY. I would guess prices will be down nationally in 2009 another 15%.
“until they lax the system buyers like me are shut out”
Again, no offense, anyone with less than 20% down should be shut out.
Found a house we really like. We are thinking about making an offer considering how much money I would be willing to risk. I expect the blue-ribbon Westchester market to crash after the next bonus season.
The agent told us (as usual) there is already a full price offer. However, seems the other guy hasn’t come up with the finances yet and no contract is signed.
Now I really feel like shooting myself. I actually were willing to eat a potential 100k-200k loss by buying now at top bubble prices, but bidding against a fantasy buyer is just too much to take.
“It’s killing the young home buyers like myself who just don’t have 60 grand laying around!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1”
Kevin,
Wake up man! Don’t you see what’s going on? Talk to the people that were new home buyers in the last few years that didn’t have 60 grand to put down. Find out what’s killing them.
Even with the bailout, Paulson said the declines in housing would continue for months.
If you make 6 figures and haven’t been able to save 60k to buy a house, tighten your belt, save more and wait out the correction.
At least that’s my opinion and I don’t know your situation so take my advice for what it’s worth.
Was that blunt enough? :)
There is a guy from Tenn speaking right now and he sounds like Hukelberry Hound.
#216 grim: Well saving up a 100K 20% down payment for the 500K POS Cape, will take quite some time, even years.
So there is only one thing that can happen prices have to and will continue to fall.
In the early 90’s a combination of dramatically falling prices, and falling interest rates, made the housing market affordbale again, and a new group of buyers entered the market. It will have to be the same this time around.
Although it appears that this time around, some one needs to do a better job of explaining that to would be home sellers.
If the unemployment rate keeps getting higher, I am not sure how this bailout package will help anything
Kevin,
I got out of school in 93 and was lucky to land a job. I made $18K a year. Bought my first home in 2004 (almost 500K). And I put down 20% I don’t feel a lot of sympathy for you. I do not mean to offend, but it is the can’t wait, can’t save attitude that got us into this hole.
“The agent told us (as usual) there is already a full price offer. However, seems the other guy hasn’t come up with the finances yet and no contract is signed.”
Is that like the offer my friend has to Angelena Jolie offering her a night of passion? It is just about ready to come to pass as soon as 1) she gets around to accepting and 2) he wakes up from his dream.
Victoria,
The Reps will rail for the cameras, but the leadership will get them to vote unless they are vulnerable and a yea vote hurts them. I predict it will pass by a very bare majority in the House.
#237 expect the blue-ribbon Westchester market to crash after the next bonus season.
What next bonus season? The bonus party ended in 2007, with the last payouts in Feb/March of 2008. For many there will be little to no bonus money paid this year. The ultimate bonus this year will be keeping ones employemnt.
I agree with the 20 percent thing…I’m just impatient….I was in school for a loooong time and now I’m starting my life. I can save 60,000 in a couple years but I can easily afford the payment…I just don’t have the upfront cash right now….but I’ll wait
Stu/Grim at 213:
what about FHA programs with 3.5% down with excellent credit? Do those still exist for first time buyers. I understand that for non-first time buyers, the 20% down is now required. What about for first time buyers (moi!)? sounds like I am screwed.
#241 zack: I am not sure how this bailout package will help anything.
It won’t.
#237
I think Westchester is massively overpriced. Most of the houses on the market have been there all year. They are still priced close to peak. Unless you have encountered a very forward thinking seller, I would be hesitant to jump in. Just think what the lousy bonuses and layoffs are going to do to Westchester in 6 months time.
#246 Kevin: I repeat do nto buy a condo.
“I can save 60,000 in a couple years but I can easily afford the payment…I just don’t have the upfront cash right now”
Reference Stu’s comment above.
Has a single R spoken in support of the bill?
Flake from Az:
“We dont have enough money in the national treasury…to help the market find [equilibrium]}” Cqn’t recall what he used in place of equilibrium, but that term captures the spirit of what he said.
“Has a single R spoken in support of the bill?”
Why yes. I think Paulson and Bergabe are in support of it.
Stu,
I mean on the floor during the debate.
Tom (88)-
SKF? I’m chained into it. And I’m sure as hell not redeeming now. Also still love SRS…just a great way to shoot against the morass of viral slop that’s bringing everything else down. IMO, SRS has real home run potential, while SKF my actually struggle somewhat to see its all time high of $212 again.
I’m sure the gubmint is trying/will try to destroy all the inverse ETFs. However, that’s a chance I’m willing to take.
No disclaimers. It’s the end of the world, and you can’t buy into SKF anyway. Just f- it all.
During the debate, I have heard some Dems speaking against it but I don’t think I have heard a single R speak in favor.
Stu (93)-
“…we will help restart the flow of credit, so American families can meet their daily needs …”
Nice to see the prez finally acknowledge that John Q keeps going by gorging on reams of cheap, easy credit.
Think the banks don’t have the sausage grinders oiled and ready to shred again?
Ha!
The dems are well on their way to future political suicide by supporting this bill. But, this bailout will hold up the markets for a while and that is all they care – Nov 4th, when a lot of them will up for re-election.
None of the Repubs that i have heard till now have supported the bill.
“So do we have new predictions on percent decline of house prices in the next year?”
Here’s my prediction for the next year, take it for what it’s worth.
The new bail out plan will free up capital and banks will lend each other money to sell of some of either other’s REO’s.
The subprime borrowers are going to be the FHA’s and Ginnie Mae’s problem and something might surface with them.
Foreclosures, short sales, REO sales will continue to be a big part of the RE market.
Number of sales will increase and so will median prices will increase slightly because it will be mostly more expensive homes being sold at discount prices.
This might create some confidence back in the market, from NAR talking about the increased numbers and masking the activity is mostly REOs, and stimulate some growth but nothing compared to the bubble.
Banks would have unloaded a lot of their properties and just before this confidence in RE comes back, they’ll repurchase securities from this current bailout at a discount and sell them to investors for a big profit.
Then Alt-A option arms will start to reset and more problems with prime loans will be seen.
Banks have solved their insolvency and liquidity problems and will continue tighter lending practices. FHA/Ginnie Mae can’t continue to treat all middle class buyers as low income buyers and will have to scale down some of their market activity.
So prices will begin to fall again.
I’m guessing maybe 10-15% down this time next year.
Don’t go my predictions, I’m not an expert, I just want to be able to document this for next year and say “haha told you!”
Wow Paul Ryan, R of WI speaks in favor of the Bill.
my point is until they lax the system buyers like me are shut out
Is a “buyer” who can’t afford to buy really a buyer at all?
Pat (106)-
My “moment of greatness”?
The capitulation and about-face that Reechard pulled after becoming the Brigadoon bagholder.
“i just got outta school though…i really dint want to wait 3 years”
kevin,
Ever think of buying a 2 Family?
Shore (110)-
Not Beeblebrox…more like Beelzebub.
Victorian (259): It’s a double-edged sword. The worse the economy does, the better O will do. If the bill passes and creates a short-term rebound through the election, M’s chances improve dramatically. I do expect the bill to pass, but don’t expect the rally to last much more than a week or two best/worst case scenario. Perhaps if the shorts weren’t banned, the short covering rally might have helped extend the rebound further. I bet we could learn a thing or two from China.
Actually bonus money is dead for a few years even if the market roars back. Lehman, AIG, Citi, Wachovia, Merril etc. pays a large portion of their bonus and Long Term Incentive Comp is restricted stock that vests over three years. Lets say even at Smith Barney you got a 200K bonus that in 2006, 2007, 2008 that was 50% cash and 50% stock. Well you already spent the 300k cash in the go go day but you thought you had 300K in restricted stock that would vest in 2009, 2010 and 2011. If you were Lehman you have zero but if you were a Citi worker that 300k is most like at best 50K after taxes tops. Even Goldman stock was at 250K at one point now it is half off and so is your bonus. Good news is 2010 restricted stock will be at a great price. Bad news that won’t best till 2013.
John (114)-
I’d toss the NCC bond. I think the real story here is that Mr. Market is already past the bailout and is now pricing in Armageddon…especially on the fixed income side.
Who would’ve thunk you’d become a sort of reverse Michael Milken in less than 10 days?
I support the bailout plan. I have no mortgage, no debt and think the consumer participated in this problem as much as banks. Besides, have not heard any brighter solutions. These are scary times but you cant be so stubborn in your politics that you are willing to let the entire financial system seize up.
And no i’m not taking money out of my bank. There is probably more risk to having thousands of dollars around the house than in a failing bank.
As far as the 20% down payment. I know BOA up until early Sept was doing 10% down (excellent credit) with a higher interest rate.
I know somebody that purchased their parent’s house at 1997/98 price, that went this way with BOA.
“The worse the economy does, the better O will do”
You are likely right, unless people see that the poor economy will prevent him from implementing his programs and decide that M’s plans to cut the size of government are the right course.
First time buyers have it easy in comparision to someone who needs a bigger house. Their equity on their small house got killed and trade ups at a million in the tristate area require around 600K downpayment not to be a jumbo.
[243]Shore- it’s incredible, every listing agent I speak to has a close to asking offer. I guess we already hit bottom, I hear it’s a great time to buy… this time next year homes will be up another %20, better hurry. (screaming sarcasm off) hazing on…Their like a bunch of little Larry Yun’s running around… no offense,
disclaimer.
check out Larry in action!
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/
skep (122)-
Are these credit cards, car loans, Golden West option ARMs…or a mash-up of all the above? Either way, I’d guess the loss will be close to total:
“The FDIC also has entered into a loss-sharing arrangement on a pre-identified pool of loans…”
” the consumer participated in this problem as much as banks… These are scary times but you cant be so stubborn in your politics that you are willing to let the entire financial system seize up.”
This bill was not well thought out, it did not benefit from reasoned examination, discussion, and debate in committees acting after receiving reasoned testimony. The bill should be defeated and a new bill created from its ashes, one that is well thought out and not rushed.
Veto (269):
“These are scary times but you cant be so stubborn in your politics that you are willing to let the entire financial system seize up.”
True, but if this bailout does not loosen credit, then we will have spent 700 billion on nothing at all. 700 BILLION!!!
Seems like the 2 houses are spending about as much time on determining if the country can afford this bill, as most homebuyers spent determining if they could afford their new home.
Skeptic,
I see the problem as being for all intents and purposes a strict solvency problem. The banks only appeared solvent while everyone was willing to accept that homes prices could increase at 10%/yr. now that people have questioned that growth and what things marked to market, nothing is moving. The reason nothing is moving is because the paper is essentially worthless and is NEVER going to increase in value.
The only way to maintain the system is to pump enough cash into it so that everyone ( people and banks) can continue on the debt binge. We have reached a point of debt saturation. No further debt can be absorbed by the system so no bailout will help.
I understand you point about wanting a controlled deleveraging. But as we have discussed before ( and disagree on) the best method, in my opinion, for deleveraging is for the government to force all of the banks to mark to market in a transparent manner. Then as Buffet says, we get to see who is swimming without shorts.
Such a move would cause turmoil but you use the 700 billion that is being proposed for banks to support social programs to soften the blow to joe sixpack
Kevin,
I’ve had the 20% for over 3 years, now its more like 25%, but what I still don’t have is the desire for a $400,000 mortgage on a “starter” house that I will have to die in. Unless prices come down – I won’t buy in NJ. (or Westchester or LI or any part of CT that is “immune” to decline)
Shore: you wrote…”unless people see that the poor economy will prevent him from implementing his programs and decide that M’s plans to cut the size of government are the right course.”
You give the populace too much credit. A bad economy at the time of the election always changes the party in the white house. No one pays attention to the candidates platform!
John (136)-
Gamblers’ Anonymous?
Just saying.
271- Shore
How is M going to implement his tax cuts?. Also, the only programs he proposes to cut are earmarks. We all know that they are but a drop in the ocean.
Frankly, I am really scared by looking at his antics over the past couple of weeks. He has come across as a political opportunist who has not put country first, as he claims. His selection of VPILF is a perfect illustration of his decision making process. Also, his campaign suspension tactics reveal his warped thinking.
During the debates, his only solution to all geo-political conflicts was war. Heaven knows that we cannot afford it.
3b (141)-
The next time you see that “Realtor”, she will probably be wearing a blue smock and a smiley face pin.
#273 it’s incredible, every listing agent I speak to has a close to asking offer.
Lies.
way back@[33]
Clot,
US Citizens, back of the bus please. O BTW bus fare went up, that will be 1 trillion dollars. dr evil wouldn’t even say that
Victorian:
Drill Baby Drill!
I bet that the VP debate will get the highest ever global television rating. Any takers?
#281
“Frankly, I am really scared by looking at his antics over the past couple of weeks.”
Me too. But I can’t tell if he is an opportunist or merely erratic. Either way, he does not seem prepared to deal with this crisis.
Seneca (169)-
Not on the Morgan call. But I know his take well enough to know that he’s telling investors it’s still too early to get in. Prices still have a long way to fall…even in Fla.
I think O should offer M the job of lead foreign policy adviser at the next debate :P
Putnam (R) & Corker (R) both came on CNBC saying they support the bill. Corker said its a good business opportunity for Americans, we should make money on it!
3260 Tom: Interesting analysis, although I think the declines will be more severe than what you mention. Lets not forget the recession that needs to be thrown into the mix, as well as the absolute dismal state of NJ’s economy,and of course ever rising property taxes.
I think they’re getting ready to vote in about an hour.
Does anyone want to take a shot of this thing passing?
I say Nay
“No one pays attention to the candidates platform!”
You are probably correct, and “we” deserve what we get if we don’t pay attention to the policies the candidates stand behind.
#285 Stu
It will be more like
Spin Baby Spin!
The VP debate is a non event, it is a amusing sidebar with no relevance to the election. Edwar1ds crushed Chen1ey, but it didn’t make a blind bit of difference.
Regarding my prediction, forgot to mention the fed will have to raise rates and any other agencies that were used as shock absorbers will start having problems.
victorian 281,
He’s just trying to avoid winner’s remorse.
sl
“I bet that the VP debate will get the highest ever global television rating. Any takers?”
I would feel more comfortable if we hid Sarah in the trunk of th limo and put Tina in her place for the debate.
re: downpayments. kevin makes a good point, I think. even people with good jobs these days have a harder time saving for a downpayment than 10+ years ago. First of all, that 20% is a lot more money. Second, the amount of student debt is way higher for most first time buyers. If you are making $100k, after taxes you are left with maybe $65k. Subtract $25k annually for rent. Subtract another $10k in student loans. After all of the other expenses, I think you would be lucky to save $10k per year. This means 8 yrs of saving for a $400k house. Be generous and assume raises and it should still take 5 yrs.
Clot, I wanna toss it, question is today or roll the dice and do it the day after the market bounces back when they get the lipsticked pig pushed through congress.
The other funny thing I see is CIT getting clobbered even though they bit the bullet and sold off all their mortgage stuff at a loss a few weeks ago.
Subprime is like screwing a skunk, even once you are done with it the stink remains for a long time.
Clotpoll Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:55 am
John (114)-
I’d toss the NCC bond. I think the real story here is that Mr. Market is already past the bailout and is now pricing in Armageddon…especially on the fixed income side.
Who would’ve thunk you’d become a sort of reverse Michael Milken in less than 10 days?
3b, I think the declines will ultimately be greater but they will be held up for a bit while banks unload REOs.
Declines will continue for some time after next year in my opinion.
After a few quarters of recession we get to a point were our economy is standing on solid ground and we start building our economy at a normal rate as we move money out of housing and into other areas.
I think we’re in for some tough times while we right-size our economy but once we do we can come out of this.
“How is M going to implement his tax cuts?. ”
He can’t. And, O can’t implement his programs because they will cost money. O’s statement that he will not raise taxes on anyone below $250,000/year is flat out wrong inasmuch as he is planning on increasing the payroll tax so those earning over $103k will have to pay tax on monies not currently taxed.
The new mantra should be “Cut, baby, cut.” We need to cut the federal budget in real dollar terms. We should start today, revising the budget that starts on Oct 1 and then come back in January to cut some more.
Move home and bank 25K a year and you got 100K in four years at zero percent interest. When I bought my first coop at 29 I got forced to move back home at 27 and suck it up for two years.
skep-tic Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
re: downpayments. kevin makes a good point, I think. even people with good jobs these days have a harder time saving for a downpayment than 10+ years ago. First of all, that 20% is a lot more money. Second, the amount of student debt is way higher for most first time buyers. If you are making $100k, after taxes you are left with maybe $65k. Subtract $25k annually for rent. Subtract another $10k in student loans. After all of the other expenses, I think you would be lucky to save $10k per year. This means 8 yrs of saving for a $400k house. Be generous and assume raises and it should still take 5 yrs.
Never mind all this hubub regarding crashing prices, etc. Renting makes more sense than house ownership in general. I’m of this ilk:
Shares of businesses return 7% a year over long time periods. I’m subtracting for inflation, gradual price increases for everything from a can of beer to an ear exam. (After-inflation or “real” returns are the only ones that matter. The point of increasing wealth is to increase buying power, not numbers on an account statement.) Shares have been remarkably consistent over the past two centuries in their 7% real returns. In Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Term,” he finds that real returns averaged 7.0% over nearly seven decades ending 1870, then 6.6% through 1925 and then 6.9% through 2004.
The average real return for houses over long time periods might surprise you. It’s zero.
more…
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/renting-makes-more-financial-sense-than-homeownership.html;_ylc=X3oDMTFta3Jqcjk3BF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDOTc2MjA0NjUEc2VjA2ZwLXRvZGF5BHNsawNyZW50aW5nLWJldHRlcg–
gentlewoman dem from Ohio just pleaded to vote no
“Subtract $25k annually for rent”
Skep,
Folks can move to a less expensive place when saving for a downpayment, or take on a roommate.
“I would feel more comfortable if we hid Sarah in the trunk of th limo and put Tina in her place for the debate.”
My prediction for an October surprise… Lieberman shows up in a wig, glasses and liptsick.
Tom,
Fisnets and garters too? Or the stockings with the lines up the back?
Nasdaq approaching a 5% loss!
Stu,
You may be on to sopmething. He could pledge to name M either secretary of Defense or State.
Are there “circut breakers” for NADDAQ also? If so, at what point do they kick in, 20%?
I have read a lot of posts on here and I agree that 20% down is reasonable…but what is not reasonable are the prices….like skeptic said because of the high prices, getting 20 % down is not as easy as it sounds with the oppressive taxes and student loan payments.
“Tom,
Fisnets and garters too? Or the stockings with the lines up the back?”
Shore, that’s just not right. You just killed those two things for me. Now everytime I see a woman in those, I’m going to picture lieberman’s head.
yea and I can pick up a lot of girls living at home :)
Stu (288)
“I think O should offer M the job of lead foreign policy adviser at the next debate :P”
… that is the storyline they used at the end of the series West Wing. The winner of the “2006” election, Dem. Matt Santos, picks his Rep. Presidential nominee (and loser) Arnold Vinick (Alan Alda) as his Sec. of State.
There aren’t enough conspiracy theorists on this site.
Palin, after a miserable debate performance, will have an unspecified medical crisis in her family that will require her to drop out. By waiting to swap out VP nom until after the debate, the networks still get viewers to tune in and ratings plus exposure to their News teams. $ in the pockets of both parties will follow.
If I am wrong, then the Repubs are clearly throwing the election.
“because of the high prices, getting 20 % down is not as easy as it sounds with the oppressive taxes and student loan payments.”
You are correct. So, what happens? The number of buyers decline, taking pressure off of the market. Fewer buyers agree to bid on properties so prices decline, thus making it easier for buyers to afford homes.
“will have an unspecified medical crisis in her family that will require her to drop out”
There have been a LOT of helicopter crashes lately.
Pelosi has what has GOT to be THE LONGEST minute in the history of mankind. Perhaps she is moving at the spped of light and time has slowed.
“yea and I can pick up a lot of girls living at home :)”
Yea but when you have a house just think how impressed they will be. You might even find one worth marrying.
“The average real return for houses over long time periods might surprise you. It’s zero.”
OTP,
Yep.
CNNMoney:
Consumer spending loses steam
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/personal_income_spending/index.htm?postversion=2008092910
“After adjusting for taxes and certain price changes, however, real disposable income contracted 0.9%, according to the report.”
“yea and I can pick up a lot of girls living at home :)”
John will let you borrow his car.
Bill Clinton appears to be supporting McCain, so possibly Hillary will replace Sara.
I think the answer is that $400k house becomes a 300k house, knocking a couple of years off the DP saving period
Wachovia is on the dollar menu.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1908546/
Citigroup to buy Wachovia at $1 per share
“John will let you borrow his car.”
Just being a plastic tarp.
Kev,
Valid point on the downsides of living at home. That being said, if a girl won’t date you because you are renting and don’t own, she is not anyone you want to be with.
Debt isn’t sexy.
3321 skpetic; Agreed. It is the only way.
I guess all this amounts to one thing….We live in a super inflated environment.
“John will let you borrow his car.”
Just make sure it’s not the car he uses when collecting the rent checks!
Kevin,
This is Lake Woebegon, where every house price is above average.
“Victorian:
Drill Baby Drill!
I bet that the VP debate will get the highest ever global television rating. Any takers?
”
Stu:
I’ll bet VPILF calls in sick. Sort of like M was trying to do….
Stu,
BUT, what happens if she does well? After the Dems playing down her competence and making her out to be a joke, what happens if she holds her own?
“I guess all this amounts to one thing….We live in a super inflated environment.”
Kevin,
Regarding asset prices, lived. The world is deleveraging.
#299 Tom: And the home sellers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming all the way, but there really is no other way.
The new buyers that come will be able to buy houses that they can afford, and than actually have disposable income to go out and buy paint, furniture, and all the rest, to start economic activity again.
Debt isn’t sexy?? I don’t think the government wants us to know that!
I think P-alin will do surprisingly well, since debates are about short responses, not university lectures.
I think O should appoint that guy on A&E that cut’s up people’s credit cards and humiliates them as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Stu,
Regardsing O offering M that position… I know you were joking but it reminded me of something I was thinking the other day after the debate. I saw a commentator mention it too.
M seems to have that old mentality of if you’re my enemy you’re pure evil. The type of demonizing that got fed to troops of previous wars. Where your enemy eats raw baby livers so it’s ok to kill them.
We’re having new wars and new enemies and that type of mentality seems to have already started to change. It makes the subsequent peace easier.
I think it was bi that mentioned how O had acknowledged M on some issues and for his accomplishments. M did not.
I feel that to get out of some of the messes we are in, and to end the partisan fighting, we need to have more politicians like O. You have to give credit where credit is do. You can’t call someone your enemy and then throw away all of their good ideas.
That’s how you cross party lines. By working together on the things you both believe in and listening to each other on those that you do not.
The GOP wants to paint that as some sort of weakness, but I think it is just the opposite. When people like bi use it against them, it just makes doing so harder. But it’s expected that things like that will happen. So when you can look someone in the eye, that is your competitor and give them some credit, it takes a lot of guts.
The debate made me feel that O would have an easier time crossing party lines.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Monday announced that it was providing more liquidity into global money markets to ease recent strains. The Fed said it was boosting the size of its auctions of liquidity to commercial banks and the size of its swap agreements from a number of foreign central banks to $620 billion from $290 billion. In addition, the Fed announced a new forward auction to provide lending to banks over the year-end. “These steps are undertaken to mitigate pressures evident in the term funding markets in the United States and abroad,” the Fed said in a statement. “By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Fed actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk,” the Fed added. Central banks stand ready to do more, the statement said
“Shore Guy Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Stu,
BUT, what happens if she does well? After the Dems playing down her competence and making her out to be a joke, what happens if she holds her own?
”
Did you see the SNL paradoy by Tina Fey. In reality it wasn’t a parody, but what VPILF said was so funny/stupid that they just quoted her. So GWB may be giving the comedians plenty of material to work with, VPILF is actually giving them the lines. Joe Bilden is no slouch when it comes to debating. He will chomp on her, but the questions is if he doesn’t chomp her up enough it will look like she won because she didn’t loose by as much as expected. Expectations are already low.
On a side note…as someoe who really thinks we live in an aristocratic oligarchy and has no opinion on Obama or McCain…don’t you think McCain kinda kicked O’s butt in the debate or is it just me?
Skep:
Did you watch her Couric appearance? She fumbles more than Kurt Warner.
It would literally take a miracle for her to do well.
Quite honestly, the VP debate is nothing more than a circus for the masses, but considering McCane’s health, she better do well.
I just can’t see her doing well after the few interviews where I watched her. It is literally painful. Sort of like when W takes questions from the press.
“The average real return for houses over long time periods might surprise you. It’s zero.”
I’m willing to bet it’s actually negative. I was just at an open house where the home was over 270 years old. It was owned by the King of England at one point. The house needs at least 200k of work on it. They have it listed for 280k (it would probably sell at 180). Case Schiller totally ignores the constant repairs and upkeep costs of owning a home.
Side note: God damn people were small back then. I’m 5’7 and I hit my head on their ceilings twice.
“John will let you borrow his car.”
Just remember to wipe down the passenger door.
Has John ever showed up at a GTG? I have this vision of a bald midget in parachute pants that needs to be erased.
SHore,
I dont care how Palan does in the debate. if she cant handle katie curic, then how is he going to handle iranian negations, debates with russia, chavez? Does she get cue cards for those meetings also.
I dotn care who wins as a i would vote for re101 before i would vote for either candidate. but Palans ineptitude is awre inspiring
Palan Claimed Dinosaurs And People Coexisted:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/28/palin-claimed-dinosaurs-a_n_130012.html
Skep – “surprisingly well” is a relative term at this point. You saw the Couric interview right? A sit-down with a nightly news talking head is the definition of short response sound bites. I imagine she was prepped plenty on the inevitable “I can see russia from my house” foreign diplomacy experience and this is the best she could come up with:
“Well, it certainly does because our — our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They’re in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia … We have trade missions back and forth. We– we do– it’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where– where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is– from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to– to our state.” –Sarah Palin, asked by Katie Couric how Alaska’s proximity to Russia gives her foreign policy experience, CBS interview, Sept. 24, 2008
Stu– you may remember that W. held his own in debates against G-ore and K-erry. I agree that he is painful to watch in interviews (as is P-alin), but one-liners are more important in these debates (such as W. saying Christ was his favorite philosopher). it is that type of thing (or Bentson’s line to Quayle) that people remember
In the Couric interview did she have notes?
She kept looking down as if she was reading something.
Is the GOP going to insist they don’t have cameras behind her?
Has anyone seen a Whip count for the Bill?
Praying? Reading notes written on her shoes?
I think all Biden has to do to win the debate is hold in his laughter.
Vic (322)-
And, naturally, C will be overpaying.
So sad, watching a company tottering on its walker and sucking bottled oxygen still trying to dance.
Can anyone explain this listing for me MLS: 2540849
3 bedroom 1 bath ranch with unfinished basement .34 acres on extremely busy Hwy 31 in Clinton Township. Yours for the low price of $395,000. Reduced from $429,000.
There are nicer houses listed for 100k less in better areas of Clinton. What type of Realtor would even take this listing?
“So sad, watching a company tottering on its walker and sucking bottled oxygen still trying to dance.”
Sounds like some of those 70’s arena rock reunion tours.
kevin Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:31 am
well i was in school for 8 years…i can wait but it just would have been nice to get a mortgage…i’ve rented this long I can wait…my point is until they lax the system buyers like me are shut out
kevie: maybe you should be….don’t mean to be a jerky to you….
“Has anyone seen a Whip count for the Bill?”
Shore,
You do realize that the rest of us that don’t work in washington probably have no idea what you’re talking about right?
Google: “whip count” results 5,770
Google: “cool whipo” results 1,020,000
“Is the GOP going to insist they don’t have cameras behind her?”
Nah, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are audio problems every time she answers.
Tom, that was pretty lol funny!
wait (337)-
“Expectations are already low.”
If mine go any lower, they’ll need a drill.
http://www.school-house-rock.com/sounds/bill.wav
classic
Cool Whip? That was my hip hop name back in the day. I was white and artificial yo!
kevin Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:37 am
I agree with the 20 percent thing…I’m just impatient….I was in school for a loooong time and now I’m starting my life. I can save 60,000 in a couple years but I can easily afford the payment…I just don’t have the upfront cash right now….but I’ll wait
kevie: fate is doing you a big favor that you won’t understand until about 5 years from now….
gaigon,
That sounds familiar. I’d look into if it was in foreclosure. I think I remember talking about that property with someone on here but can’t be sure.
The Whip is a member of each party whose job it is to round up votes that the party leadership wants to pass and votes against those bills the party leadership wants to kill. The Whip count is the tally the Whips make counting votes. The Whip count tells the leadership whether the bill will pass or fail.
“Cool Whip”
Sounds like something John used in his van back in the day.
“Nah, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are audio problems every time she answers.”
We appear to be having technical difficulties. There appears to be a male sounding pre-echo in VPILF’s mic.
John Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Actually bonus money is dead for a few years even if the market roars back. Lehman, AIG, Citi, Wachovia, Merril etc. pays a large portion of their bonus and Long Term Incentive
John-John: McC and Erin Brockovich are going to start running on the platform of increasing the Annual Loss write-off from $3,000 to $100,000.
Apologies if this was already posted. Too tired to catch up with all the weekend postings!
SNL Palin/Couric Link:
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/couric-palin-open/704042/
Stu Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Victorian:
Drill Baby Drill!
I bet that the VP debate will get the highest ever global television rating. Any takers?
Stu: of course…everyone wants to watch a slow motion train wreck……
If we are setting up this 700B program to help bail out the banks, why did the FDIC cut the cream off these 2 banks and sell them right before they may have been solvent again. Something about this does not sit well with me. What am I missing? It is funny to think that if these transactions were done by anyone other than our wonderful government, they would be illegal and quite a bit of jail time would be handed out.
Thoughts?
Comments?
Bailout Bill Poses Whipping Challenge for Both Parties
By Alan K. Ota, Molly K. Hooper and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
Leaders of both parties in the House, but particularly Republicans, were whipping hard to line up votes Monday for a massive financial bailout bill worked out with the Bush administration over the weekend.
Administration officials and the party’s presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, joined in the effort to garner a majority of Republicans behind the plan — as demanded by Democratic leaders who don’t want their own members left vulnerable.
But there was significant push-back from conservative Republicans, especially some in the Republican Study Committee (RSC), who started pushing an alternative proposal.
“No solid whip numbers are out yet. People are talking about each side putting up about half the votes. They are comparing it to a congressional pay raise vote,” a senior GOP aide said Monday morning.
“It’s very hard. Both parties are working as hard they can. It’s not popular. We need 218 votes,” said a senior House Democratic aide, referring to a bare majority of the 435-member House.
Just how hard was evident early Monday. After the House had disposed of its other business and was preparing to tackled the bailout package (HR 3997), Rep. Louie Gohmert , R-Texas, forced a vote on a motion to adjourn “so we don’t do this terrible thing to America.”
Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, a leading member of the influential Republican Study Committee, on Sunday said in a statement: “Republicans improved this bill but it remains the largest corporate bailout in American history, forever changes the relationship between government and the financial sector, and passes the cost along to the American people. I cannot support it.”
Pence was urging his GOP colleagues, “If you came here because you believe in limited government and the freedom of the American marketplace, vote in accordance with those convictions.”
House Minority Whip Roy Blunt , R-Mo., who represented his caucus in the marathon weekend negotiations that produced the final bill, said on CNN that Pence’s advice was “not helpful.”
Rep. Todd Tiahrt , R-Kan., said it would be difficult to deliver a majority of the party’s House members for the deal as Speaker Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif., had demanded.
But later, as GOP lawmakers were caucusing, aides say Eric Cantor , R-Va., the chief deputy whip, and Paul D. Ryan , R-Wis., ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, pushed hard for “yes” votes. “This sucks that we are in this position. But we have to do this to save the free enterprise system,” Ryan told members, according to a participant.
Blunt said he hoped a large number of Republicans would support the measure. “We’ll do everything we can to make sure members of both parties in substantial numbers vote for this bill,” Blunt said.
“Everybody’s unhappy about it,” he told CNN on Monday morning. “I think the alternative is what our members have to think about.”
Bailout Bill Poses Whipping Challenge for Both Parties
The White House joined the lobbying campaign, with Budget Director Jim Nussle — a former Republican House member from Iowa —prowling the GOP cloakroom just off the floor to help sway reluctant Republicans to vote for the plan.
On Sunday, Nussle had sent a letter to House Minority Leader John A. Boehner , R-Ohio, down playing the plan’s cost to taxpayers. Boehner’s office released a similar letter from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
“No one knows just how much these assets will sell for, but since 90 percent of mortgages are currently being paid on time and in full, we can expect a substantial payback on our investment,” Nussle wrote. “In some cases, if a mortgage asset is purchased at a deep discount from its face value, the taxpayer may even see a positive return on that investment.”
CBO echoed that view.
“Although it is not currently possible to quantify the net budget impact given the lack of details about how the program would be implemented, CBO has concluded that enacting the bill would likely entail some net budget cost—which would, however, be substantially smaller than $700 billion,” reads the letter from CBO to leaders of the House Budget and Financial Services committees.
Leaning on Republicans
More than 180 of the 199 House Republicans attended an unusually long closed-door meeting Sunday — unusual, because only half of the conference normally shows up at the party’s weekly private meetings.
The leaders spoke for almost an hour. According to attendees, Boehner kicked off the program by recounting the fractious White House meeting on the issue Sept. 25, when House Republican leaders, backed by GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain , demanded that negotiators consider alternatives to the bailout plan if Congress was going to fork over $700 billion to stave off a financial crisis.
One participant described the tone of the conference as “respectful, but negative.”
Blunt declined to give the results of a survey taken in the caucus meeting. Members filled out white cards bearing their names and five choices: yes, no, lean yes, lean no and undecided. Aides said a more rigorous whip count was continuing.
Boehner said McCain “has been making calls to members in support of this bill.”
A leading Democratic skeptic also suggested problems for the plan on his side of the aisle.
“If this is called for a vote on Monday, it’s very hard to predict,” said Rep. Brad Sherman , D-Calif., who drew some 35 Democrats to a meeting of what he dubbed the “Skeptics Caucus.”
Bailout Bill Poses Whipping Challenge for Both Parties
But lawmakers belonging to the 49-member Blue Dog Coalition of conservative Democrats said they were pleased the draft legislation included a provision intended to raise money from companies that participate in the program if its full cost is not recouped within five years.
Rep. Jim Cooper , D-Tenn., said he plans to vote for the bill, warning that if Congress does not act the consequences for the economy will be dire.
“It’s not everyday you get a chance to save your country,” he said. “This may be one of those chances, nobody knows for sure.”
Majority Whip James E. Clyburn , D-S.C., said he was not sure how the bill would fare, but was not overly concerned about Democratic defections.
“It’s good to be skeptical about this. If anybody was sure about what we were doing, we wouldn’t be having all these discussions,” he said.
RSC Alternative
Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, chairman of the 106-member Republican Study Committee., said, “I am not whipping this bill. But I believe the bulk of our members will be opposing it.”
Pence insisted, “There are alternatives to massive government spending.”
RSC critics of the bailout bill focused on an alternative proposal by William Issac, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. who served during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s under President Ronald Reagan. Isaac suggested that Congress let the FDIC take the major role in dealing with troubled banks and helping them refinance or get rid of troubled investments.
An email circulated by RSC staff provided highlights of Isaac’s plan. The RSC summary said that Isaac wanted Congress to approve a “net worth certificate” similar to what was enacted in the 1980s for the saving s and loan industry.
The plan would allow the FDIC to purchase net worth certificates in troubled banks it things can be viable if give more time, perhaps five years. At the end of that period the bank would have to repay the notes issued by the FDIC.
The plan also called for suspending mark-to-market accounting rules that require companies to list their assets at current market value, something that is difficult to determine for many mortgage-backed securities.
And it would continue a newly implement Securities and Exchange Commission curb on short-selling of stocks.
First posted Sept. 29, 2008 10:47 a.m.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=3&docID=news-000002965763
Grim, please unmod article on congressional whipping this bill
Shore Guy Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Are there “circut breakers” for NADDAQ also? If so, at what point do they kick in, 20%?
Shore: I think the NASDAQ is short-circuited at this juncture.
See, I always thought a congressional whip was something that occurred at FlashDancers.
Shore Guy Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Stu, BUT, what happens if she does well? After the Dems playing down her competence and making her out to be a joke, what happens if she holds her own?
Shore: meaningless….she has only upside for the debate, as does B-den….they are both mindless goons…anything better is a plus…
today’s market is a perfect set-up for passing the rescue bill! if the bill was not passed, you will see dow down 500 pts. right away. this gives the bill supporters another reason to vote yes
#366
There was basically a bank run underway at WaMu. Nearly $17B of deposits withdrawn in a matter of days. I would not be surprised if something similar happend to WB over the past few days. When FDIC is involved, it is about protecting deposits.
Bailout Bill Poses Whipping Challenge for Both Parties
By Alan K. Ota, Molly K. Hooper and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
Leaders of both parties in the House, but particularly Republicans, were whipping hard to line up votes Monday for a massive financial bailout bill worked out with the Bush administration over the weekend.
Administration officials and the party’s presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, joined in the effort to garner a majority of Republicans behind the plan — as demanded by Democratic leaders who don’t want their own members left vulnerable.
But there was significant push-back from conservative Republicans, especially some in the Republican Study Committee (RSC), who started pushing an alternative proposal.
“No solid whip numbers are out yet. People are talking about each side putting up about half the votes. They are comparing it to a congressional pay raise vote,” a senior GOP aide said Monday morning.
“It’s very hard. Both parties are working as hard they can. It’s not popular. We need 218 votes,” said a senior House Democratic aide, referring to a bare majority of the 435-member House.
snip
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=3&docID=news-000002965763
So was on Broad Street and Al Sharpton was on his podium yelling No Bail Out. He wants the little people bailed out and for us greedy wall street people to bail them out by paying off their mortgage. Then he said lets say a prayer some of us do that unlike the others, I guess you can’t believe in God and Capitalism.
Re 366 – They are shooting hostages to make sure congress passes the bill.
Tried to post an article and link about the whp count for this bill and it is in mod.
The thing that concerns me the most going forward.
If we had companies that were too big to fail now, what about after all these acquisitions? They already had their own losses and write downs.
What will CNBC do when there is only one large government bank left?
If McCain and Palin let me write off defered comp restricted stock losses that I have not yet paid taxes on I will babysit her autistic kid and slept with McCains 100 year old mama.
chicagofinance Says:
John-John: McC and Erin Brockovich are going to start running on the platform of increasing the Annual Loss write-off from $3,000 to $100,000.
People who dig P-alin don’t care about what she knows. They like who she is. All she has to do is throw a few sharp jabs at B-iden or O in her sweet aw shucks manner and that will be the take away. You can bet that the M team has got a list of them ready for her.
“I guess you can’t believe in God and Capitalism”
sharpton should get his hands on some max weber
The Street.com:
Don’t Waste Your Cash on REITs
http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10439639.html
“As someone who has spent his entire career in commercial real estate both as an equity investor and a lender, my view is that in today’s troubled economy, combined with declining availability of credit and increased risk perception for income properties, investors should expect IYR to at least trade back to around $40 (and possibly much lower) during the next 12 to 24 months.”
375#, shore, how many yea and nays so far?
The real implication of the VeeP debate is what it does to the undecided voters in the few swing states. To the folks who have made up their minds on one side or another it makes no difference. But, for someone wavering one way or the other it could help move things one way or the other.
Voice vote? No taking down the vote?
Whew, recorded vote. 15 minutes.
If this had been allowed to be a voice vote it would have been a tragedy.
bi,
I dont know and neither did the Whips as of the time article was published.
so far Yeas, democrats are 78 R 29
LOTS of folks have not yet voted, for both parties.
Skep:
You are correct about the Palan jabs. It will be hard for Bidan to be mean because he will come across as being a sexist. The best thing Bidan can do is answer the questions as if he was in deposition. Palan will hang herself because it’s obvious that she does not know when to shut-up.
My 3-year old daydreaming son is significantly less scatterbrained than Palan…Seriously!
COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palan, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? Allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy? Instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
PALaN: That’s why I say, I like ever American I’m speaking with were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the tax payers looking to bailout.
But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Helping the — Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. Shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americas.
And trade we’ve got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive scary thing. But 1 in 5 jobs being created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation.
This bailout is a part of that.
Yea Nay NV
Dem 80 33 119
Rep 32 55 112
9:30 remaining in the vote
Skep:
You are correct about the Palan jabs. It will be hard for JB to be mean because he will come across as being a sexist. The best thing JB can do is answer the questions as if he was in deposition. SP will hang herself because it’s obvious that she does not know when to shut-up.
My 3-year old daydreaming son is significantly less scatterbrained than SP…Seriously!
KC: Why isn’t it better, Governor SP, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? Allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy? Instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
SP: That’s why I say, I like ever American I’m speaking with were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the tax payers looking to bailout.
But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Helping the — Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. Shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americas.
And trade we’ve got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive scary thing. But 1 in 5 jobs being created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation.
This bailout is a part of that.
…. I think I see one of the Republicans from Kentucky tossing a coin…
126 Yea 116 Nay
Kevin,
To be somewhat philosophical, why do you want to take on debt for a non performing asset (liability) when there is no immediate need besides desire.
Borrowing money for non revenue positive assets/liabilities is almost a modern day version of serfdom. Yes, 99% of people take this route. But consider how much stress and trouble carrying unneeded debt entails. marriages break up over Credit card payments and home foreclosures.
consider the level of freedom you have when you do not carry that debt. if you decide one day you hate your job, then you can tell the boss to suck it, pack a bag and go chill in Aruba for a month. if you have the house note, then you are essentially forced to work.
None producing assets/liabilities are nothing more then an anchor around your neck.
A house is just a place to live and a liability more then an asset.
It will pass as is. There is now way any of these clowns will allow their party to look bad in the eyes of the populace. Sure a few people realize the moral hazard in the bill, but the masses has a much larger crisis on their mind. What to watch on Sunday prime time and what to Tivo.
C-Span has never been this riveting.
Yup Nope
137 139
Did anyone figure out if the legislation will prevent something like Goldman from selling it’s assets to another company before that company sells them under the bailout? That way goldman gets the crap off their books and avoids the penalties associated with participating?
Stu Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
See, I always thought a congressional whip was something that occurred at FlashDancers.
Stu: A very good friend from high school worked there for a couple of years. She is actually a Yale grad. Don’t let 3b know…he’d make some snide remark such as those Ivy League strippers only take $100’s.
Palin will do FINE on the debate because the Republicans won and are doing scripted and pre-rehearsed questions.
All Palin has to do is memorize. There will be no surprises.
Why the democrats allowed this to be the format is beyond me.
Prove me wrong!
And Bi: before you rip into my SRS holdings, I reduced my holdings by another 3rd going into this vote. Just too much risk for me. I’m also headed out on a cruise on Saturday making it quite difficult to monitor my holdings.
my prediction is it will pass by 225:205
#405
seems like every str-pper I’ve ever met was applying to med school or to get an MBA. str-pping was just “temporary”
One minute warning.
DJIA at low of the day. Nas at -5%
Speaking of cars, this morning I had to drop a daughter off at school which I rarely do. Well I did not want to take my 5 series since when you go to station late you get the spots that get you scratched so I took her in my old car from when I was single my 1975 450sl, so my daughter told me my front seat is stinky and my car is smelly. Which cracked me up as I have heard that before except last time it wasn’t cause the car got musty from being in storage eight years. Even funnier is I have it outside since July as I was driving it to the train after my other car got totaled and I have not put it back into storage. I am getting a big rust mark on the hood as back in the day I was dating a girl related to John Gotti and I had a bad break up with her which was my fault of course and a few months later her cousin ended up at a big hamptons party in my summer house. Well to get back at me she tells her boyfriend her dream is to do it on top of a Mercedes SL, well she did on top of Benz and put a small crack in the paint on the hood that has now started to rust. I look at that rust mark almost as I look at a potato in the shape of Dolly Parton. It is fun to look at but it is starting to rot. My wife wonders why I fix certain things and leave other things, well the other things have funny stories to them.
bi already 208 nay
… is there the potential for hanging chads on this vote?
times up and still waiting on 29 votes
192 yea 215 nay
Time should be up. I wonder if the leadership is going to hold the vote open and go persuade some Nays to change their mind.
More FED free money….
Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Reserve announced today several initiatives to support financial stability and to maintain a stable flow of credit to the economy during this period of significant strain in global markets.
We will continue to adapt these liquidity facilities as necessary and will keep them in place as long as circumstances require.
Actions by the Federal Reserve include: (1) an increase in the size of the 84-day maturity Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions to $75 billion per auction from $25 billion beginning with the October 6 auction, (2) two forward TAF auctions totaling $150 billion that will be conducted in November to provide term funding over year-end, and (3) an increase in swap authorization limits with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Danmarks Nationalbank (National Bank of Denmark), European Central Bank (ECB), Norges Bank (Bank of Norway), Reserve Bank of Australia, Sveriges Riksbank (Bank of Sweden), and Swiss National Bank to a total of $620 billion, from $290 billion previously……..(more)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080929a.htm
HOLY CRAP, who just farted on Wall Street?
Whenthe Rs had control of the House THAT drove Ds nuts and they pledged not to do it too.
Perhaps Bi’s box is working again? Just reverse the yays and the nays.
Looks llike it will fail.
Dow don 689
196 Yea and 221 Nay with 17 left to cast a vote
I should be locked out of Ameritrade any minute now!
Time to go pull another $10k out in cash and burry in the garden.
My friend who is a big four partner is married to a former Pure Plat girl who went to the university of florida, made a killing off girl girl lap dances. She lives in a million dollar condo and has a porsche. My friend had no interest in dating a career women. Has enough of them at work. Said seen enough men waste ten years on their starter wife before they moved to their thropy wife so he started with a thropy wife. Smart Man.
Shocked = Did not pass.
#426 – Me too! I can’t believe it didn’t pass!
Slam the doggonned gavel already.
Can we all see past the smoke and mirrors now?
per my last post it has gone form the FED handing out cash for IOU’s to the central banks trying the same thing with each other…. the circus continues
Will the Naz break $2,000?
skep-tic,
If you realy mean global viewing, I don’t think it will come even close to the 1.5 billion people that watched the World Cup final between Italy and Brazil in 1994.
If they go around threatening people and promising them things to change votes, just like the Rs used to the Ds deserve nothing but contempt.
Me so happy!
Doh!
oh, now we have a not yet voted where it was not before.
think they’re getting ready to vote in about an hour.
Does anyone want to take a shot of this thing passing?
I say Nay
I love being able to predict the future.
Go USA.
The bull$hit begins.
Maybe we can do that in November. See how it turns out then exchange favors for changing our votes after the fact.
206 to 228, now 206 to 227 and one I changed my mind, or may be persuaded to depending on what you give me.
Time to declare this beast dead and go about crafting something better, after HEARINGS.
it is going to be a long week.
Stu,
Does this not outrage you to see the Dems doing the same thing they blasted the Rs for doing with respect to holding votes open and then going and trying to change them after time expires?
Can we get a 1,000 post thread?
anyone know… where’s the TED spread?
Holding open the vote seems to have halted the slide inthe Dow. If it finally fails, what are the wagers for where we end? I will go for 10,200.
An interesting proposal . . . (and this is for AIG… imagine doing this with the $700B+ they are currently in talks about)
The Birk Economic Recovery Plan
I’m against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
Instead, I’m in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a ‘We Deserve It Dividend’.
To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bon-a-fide U.S. Citizens 18+.
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a ‘We Deserve It Dividend’. Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
But it means that every adult 18+ has 297,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads Put away money for college – it’ll be there Save in a bank – create money to loan to
entrepreneurs. Buy a new car – create jobs
Invest in the market – capital drives growth Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improves Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else
Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is
cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult US Citizen 18+!
As for AIG – liquidate it. Sell off its parts. Let American General go back to being American General. Sell off the real estate. Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.
Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.
Sure it’s a crazy idea that can “never work.”
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
How do you spell Economic Boom?
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion ‘We Deserve It Dividend’ more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in
Washington, DC.
And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.
Cooper,
Next to the Mirical Whip?
As opposed to the House Whip.
all stocks are getting hammered, but any company with lots of debt on it’s balance sheet is getting KILLED today. everyone realizes the debt rollovers are going to put some of these guys out of business and into liquidation.
lmao
TED spread is at 3.30.
It looks like Pelosi must be back in her office having the Sergeant at Arms waterboarding members to get them to change their votes.
#449
“everyone realizes the debt rollovers are going to put some of these guys out of business and into liquidation.”
wonder if congress gets this
thx tosh
So the voting ended at 1:45. What time is it now?
From Yahoo Finance
he current Emergency Economic Stabilization Act vote tally comes at 207 for the plan, 226 against, with one vote remaining. A total of 218 votes were needed to pass the vote. House members can still change their vote, and as a result the number of yes votes did tick a few points higher.
Democrats voted 141 for, 94 against. Republicans voted 66 for, 132 against.
brendan.daly@mail.house.gov is Pelosi’s press secretary
May be time to e-mail protests to her
Lena #446,
I’d be weary of any economic plan coming from someone who cannot even do basic math. $85B divied by 200M americans is $425/person not $425,000.
Looks like it was rejected!
Another vote. I was out of the room. Is this a motion to reconsider?
TaxPayer 2, Wallstreet 0
Tent Cities’ Spring Up In The US
Communities of homeless people living in tents are cropping up across the US as the effects of rising unemployment, repossessions and the credit crunch bite.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Tent-Cities-Spring-Up-In-The-US-Credit-Crunch-Making-People-Homeless/Article/200809315103250?lpos=World_News_First_World_News_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15103250_Tent_Cities_Spring_Up_In_The_US%3A_Credit_Crunch_Making_People_Homeless
SOV is officially in Zombie land.
“Warren Buffett: If I didn’t think the government was going to act, then I would not be doing anything this week. I might be trying to undo things this week. It would be a mistake to buy ANYTHING now if the government were going to walk away from the Paulson proposal.”
Time to grab another 10 grand for the garden fund.
Link for #465;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/97228-warren-buffett-on-goldman-sachs-and-the-financial-bailout-package
Asian markets are gonna drop 10% overnight if this fails.
Where is Dennis Kneale. He must be bit@h slapped.
Turning my pool room into a greenhouse. Will need it to feed the family this winter.
GS down 18%!!!
woe is we
IMMEDIATE ACTION ALERT
Dear Industry Member,
We are now just hours away from Congress’s vote on legislation vital to our industry. We urgently need you, and your employees, to make calls before noon today to the House of Representatives and ask them to pass The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 to bring stability to our economy and increase credit availability for the benefit of every American citizen.
As this morning’s news reports have made clear, no one is sure of the outcome. Therefore, we need everyone to show support for this critically important legislation. We expect the vote at noon today, so please contact your Member of Congress immediately and please forward this e-mail to your employees, asking them to do the same.
To call and e-mail your Representatives visit http://www.house.gov and look in the upper left hand side of the screen where you can enter your zip code and find your Representative. Or if this site is non-responsive, visit http://www.congress.org and look in the upper right hand side of the screen.
Please let your Representative know the following:
We believe this legislation is critically important and should be enacted into law at the earliest possible time in order restore market stability and increase credit availability for businesses and consumers across the country.
Every day, working Americans rely on healthy credit markets for home loans, auto loans, student loans and other types of financing. These credit markets help support small businesses as well, which need cash flow to meet their payrolls.
The legislation Congress will vote on today will restore confidence, credit availability and market stability in a timely manner. There are no viable alternatives and doing nothing is not a reasonable option.
You want your Representative to vote in favor of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
Thank you for your immediate action contacting Congress.
-The SIFMA advocacy team
It looks like it might be time for congress to legislatively eliminate the derivatives and wipe out some billionaires. Without that, it is hard to see any support to bailout anything involving Wall Street.
S&P down nearly 6%. Nice time to be holding cash.
Interesting little look at SKF and the SEC’s recent skulduggery. Kinda relevant, given the events of the past hour:
http://tinyurl.com/3oe8cc
Let it burn, baby! Burn to the ground!
Market is now down what, 30% from peak?
I wonder what bush is doing right now. Probably walking around muttering, “This is hard. It is hard being president. Boy this is hard, hard work.”
i guess,,, the people have spoken,,, hold your cash,,,
Time for Bu-sh and Paulson to resign. Nobody trusts either of them and if anything is to get done, it will be easier without them.
Bill Gross not happy
WOW…..all this almost makes me glad that my husband and I were so broke we sold off a big chunk of our 410k…at least we were able to pay for college, if we had kept it untouched I wonder how much it would of devalued? At least we got something out of it and it didn’t just go *poof*
Jeesh, and I jusat handed a $40,000 deposit check over to our designer towards a new kitchen. I could’a had 40 Maple Leafs.
John (412)-
An instant classic. Weaving your daughter into it gives it a properly creepy tone.
This is crazy, poor old Soveign bank is getting beaten like a red headed step child just cause they are a bank and even worse a savings bank. Doesn’t matter they were never into subprime and already sold or wrote off the junk. If they get a run on the bank it is all over.
omg, how funny! i didn’t check the math… i ASSUMED it was right, and you know where assume gets you….
that scenario’s been running around email… you all might see it at some point!
been savin coffee cans for weeks now, just got back from the bank gonna have some lunch then go digg holes…
Damm SEC at 700 points down they go into firedrill mode. Anyhow. I bet this gets passed, at this point we are throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
kettle1 i agree withg u. I’m gonna continue staying relatively debt free except for my student loans…maybe one day it will make sense to buy, but not now
Boehner and Blunt blaming Pelosi for her partisan tone making some R’s change their mind. Well played.
I would bet my first born child that this will pass!!! The market will have a late rally and all will be joyous …for a while…until our American dollar is deemed worthless in a few short months
#488 kevin:maybe one day it will make sense to buy, but not now.
Save your money, there will be lots of good deals next year.
“I wonder what bush is doing right now. Probably walking around muttering, “This is hard. It is hard being president. Boy this is hard, hard work.””
I think this is a win win situation for Bush.
Bailout doesn’t get passed, he blames the crash on Congress.
Bailout passes, he’s out of office before the crash.
This would have passed if it hand’t been right before an election.
Burn, burn, burn! Hey Cox, want some of my SKF? You can’t have it, douchebag!
Send the ATF and the cops and come try to take it away from me & people like me. That will be next.
Bet Cox wishes he had some short interest going in the financials right about now.
Short sellers killed the financials? Hell, they don’t need us. They’re doing a great job of it all by themselves.
So the some of the R’s were willing to vote yes this bill, tacitly agreeing with it’s substance, and change their mind only because of the big bad speaker’s speech (and not because the bill is a piece of @#$%) is a pretty pathetic excuse. It would be more acceptable if there had been something slipped in last minute that you could object to and cite as your reason for voting no.
That said – I thank them for their no votes and also 94 from the other side.
John (484)-
Well, you know that it can’t be blamed on naked shorts anymore:
“This is crazy, poor old Soveign bank is getting beaten like a red headed step child just cause they are a bank and even worse a savings bank.”
Just great. If SOV had some shorting going on, it wouldn’t be diving straight for 0. Call up Cox and thank him for killing a perfectly good bank.
Happy New Year to my hebe friends. I’m off to beat the traffic. Route 9 and Jewish holidays are a deadly mix. At least Bloomberg will be interesting until I’m forced to put on jazz at the request of the Rye guy. It could have been worse. I might have had to suffer through the loss the Mets in their wildcard determining playoff game had they won yesterday.
us dollar at 1.44 to the euro—-omg!!!!!!!
It failed the house
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080929/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown
“Huh? I have never seen the Office. Is there a character in it with the same name as the local House Mamber?”
Shore,
Actor’s name is similar and the show is set in scranton.
hirono (495)-
It is most satisfying to see Pelosi get completely sandbagged then beaten to the PR punch by her adversaries.
BTW, she is on my public execution list.
“BTW, she is on my public execution list.”
clot-
Go long Ammo?
#492 Tom“I wonder what bush is doing right now. Probably walking around muttering, “This is hard. It is hard being president. Boy this is hard, hard work.””
Don’t worry, he is going to start coming in on Saturday’s like this psat weekend.
Stu (497)-
Happy New Year! Only wish the Mets had made it to the playoff game today to cash what would’ve been a monumental bet against them.
Vic (502)-
High-velocity, hollow point.
“Short sellers killed the financials? Hell, they don’t need us. They’re doing a great job of it all by themselves.”
Clot,
They need the shorts to initiate a rally.
Actually when I lived at home I still had a Hamptons share and I liked to ski so I used to go up Saturday morning with a girl and do the ski thing. Funny I would pay the one night hotel and gas the girls used to buy their own lift ticket and spring for drinks anyhow. Third date in summer was come to my Hampton house Third date in winter was go sking and in between I crash at my friends place in city. Plus I dated girls with their own place mainly. Actually was not bad. However, when you break 30 years of age their is no excuse for living at home and then it gets tough.
kevin Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
yea and I can pick up a lot of girls living at home :)
WOW! YES!!!!!!!! DEFEATED!
I’m hitting the road in a few, have the day off tomorrow as well.
I’m not Jewish, but I observe. :)
What did Pelosi say that wasn’t true???? This whole game is a joke. Pelosi will get up and ammend her comments and make the “hurt feelings” all go away for the republicans…then it will pass then the market will rally!!!bet me now!!!!
BC (506)-
My intentions of covering are exactly nil. And, I’m neither a big player nor smart.
Can’t imagine what the feeling must be like around Doug Kass’ place right about now.
John (507)-
“However, when you break 30 years of age their is no excuse for living at home and then it gets tough.”
This is my official offer to become your publisher. These tidbits need to be collected into one official volume.
Anybody got ideas for a title (and no, I think “Silly Putty” is taken)?
happy rusha homa!!
so are all you left-wingers R’s now? next you’ll be speaking in tongues at your wine and cheese events
kevin (510)-
I’d bet you, but the SEC locked me into my original bet a few days ago.
#512
“T-ts”
Well like FDR’s Fireside talks my book will be called tolietside thoughts. I am thinking of putting in a lamentated centerfold just for fun. You don’t want to see my bookmark.
“Anybody got ideas for a title (and no, I think “Silly Putty” is taken)?”
– Hitchhikers Guide to Crush Valor?
a fun stock chart
http://bp1.blogger.com/_4Ra86EZFyus/RjAD5f_-4SI/AAAAAAAAAA0/8_pI2HZ772w/s1600-h/DJIA_History.png
can we draw any rough conclusion from the difference in magnitudes between the dip taken in 29 and how high we are now in relation?
since 1913, the US has experienced approx 1,900% inflation. Is that a significant portion of the growth in the market that we see in the chart?
Moody’s may downgrade Citigroup ‘Aa3’ rating
Are they also sending an anylyst over their with a bucket of gas and some matches, talk about kicking you when you are down.
#514 Skep
“next you’ll be speaking in tongues at your wine and cheese events”
I thought that was reserved for the fiscal conservatives when discussing SP.
In honor of my favorite jewish action film star I will call it “Hard to Swallow”
For what it is worth, I contacted the White House and called for the President to fire Paulson and to resign.
NIKKEI suprisingly holding strong….more Japanese purchases coming?
A briss too far?
A briss too far?
Shorts are allowed again on Wed?
The first cut is the hardest
Predictions on the VP depate.
Moderator: Governor, what are your thoughts on the bailout not passing?
Gov P: Well, you know I think it’s very sad that our Democratic led congress would vote against helping Main St and Wall St. If I were VP I would have voted for it!”
Receiver in her ear: loud screams
Gov P: What? I did what you said, “Streets Good, Bridge Bad”.
“Moody’s may downgrade Citigroup ‘Aa3′ rating”
What waddles and quacks like a duck certainly is not a soaring eagle.
It’s not going up for another vote today. Dow down 1,000.
I thought Tina Fey’s impersonation from Saturday night was the best so far (Couric interview)
nah not 1,000
at what point does the dow circuit breaker get tripped????
Shore (523)-
“For what it is worth, I contacted the White House and called for the President to fire Paulson and to resign.”
Please call back and demand that they simultaneously shoot each other in the head.
M”oderator: Governor, what are your thoughts on the bailout not passing?”
Gov P: Well, you know I think. I once had a kidney stone and, gosh, that sucker was hard to pass. It hurt for weeks and made it difficult to keep an eye on Putin and the Canadian border but i did so, because I have foreign policy experience.
Interesting, Soveign’s largest stock holder is Banco Sandtarar, can they bail out themselves?
http://palinquotes.awardspace.com/
Dow is only down 620
Funny, I was at a BMW and Mercedes dealer in early August and I said I was considering buying an employee priced CTS and was wondering if they could give me a deal. Both said we don’t play that game, let GM sell the CTS’s cheap in August and September and come October we will be able to sell our left over 2008’s no problem. Well October 1st is in two days, good luck moving those 2008 BMWs and Benzs!!!!
#516 skeptic; Who exactly is a left winger??
Tosh,
Does that mean that bank-to-bank lending has come to a halt?
TED spread at 3.30?
Dow down 715
Blood on the Streets!!
Great time to buy overpriced RE.
it’s ridiculous, these banks obviously have every interest in seeing this bailout pass… so until it gets passed they are doing everything in their power to make things look AS BAD AS POSSIBLE.
if this bailout wasn’t even on the table as an option then things wouldn’t be so bad. they’d be bad… but these J-O banks are playing games to scare everyone. if the bailout passes, it takes years worth of stupid mistakes off of their books. of course they’re all about it!
No word back from the EOP yet. They are probably making the necessary calls to have me excommunicated from the party, for failing to drink the kool-aid.
im showin 614
down 724. Bigger drop than 9/17/01
Well, time to get to the bank for some, ummm, mulch.
In percentage or points?
Vix is thru the roof. Capitulation?
#544 – It’s at 3.44 right now. According to a number of people it has already halted. The only sources lending are central banks.
Disclosure:I am in IT and was so unrealistic as to get advanced degrees in Literature. Take anything I say with massive doses of salt.
did someone say below 10,000 this week?
Ohh a rally in progress. Up from down 720 to down 670.
John (539)-
Interesting that Santander dropped out of the Wachovia carcass-scavenge over the weekend. Guess they had some idea SOV was gonna go down hard today.
BC (554)-
Can I interest you in some November .vix 50 calls?
John (542)-
Good luck to that dealer rolling his lines of credit into Q4.
“The only sources lending are central banks.”
Tosh,
My college roomate is a CFO, based in New Hampshire. They have increased their lines, at very attractive rates, thru the local banks. Forget about the majors.
Points:
http://www.allstocks.com/html/stock_market_records.html
Dow Largest One Day Points Down
684.81 (9/17/01) to 8976
642! here we go
Bush just woke from his afternoon nap to say he’s disappointed
Shore (552)-
I’m holding out for a free toaster oven.
[504-07] Vic, clot,
I have been saying to go long on ammo for weeks. At this point, it is going to be my best performing investment because IT WON’T LOSE ME ANY MONEY!
P.J. O’Rourke said that, on days like today, you have to get drunk, because if you aren’t drunk then you obviously aren’t significant.
Still not significant, but boy do I need a drink.
fwiw: at the school pick-up, the moms agreed that the bailout stinks, and whatever happens our kids are screwed so the best thing is to not panic. the restaurant owner leaned inahnd said “i know a banker, he said we have to have th ebailout or (insert ominous eyebrows here)” i said “yeah, ok– but not the bailout as it is. did you know paulson was the head of goldman sachs for 7 years” he didn’t look happy about that.
so… that’s where queens is at. what are your neighbors saying?
#561 – Good! I’d be happy to see a return to local banking and remove the systemic risks of a few large national banks.
I think we may be close to being able to agree that the PPT has run out of bazooka shells.
SKF up 23% on the day.
No disclaimer needed.
Even worse, October 1st the majestic former Independence Savings Bank headquarters in Brooklyn is to open as the largest trader joes complete with beautiful bank ceiling and ortnate bank features. I hope Soveign makes it to then.
There are no system problems.
The system is the problem.
alia (567)-
“that’s where queens is at. what are your neighbors saying?”
Nothing much. Just some small talk about guns and ammo…
590…the rally is on
Clot – Sell SKF when it hits 150 later this month, before the ‘bailout’ arrives?
because you know it is coming.
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
how can i go and find which way my congressman voted?
571, err… systemic problems
Paulson to Use All Tools to Protect Financial Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av7npHxu6eN8&refer=home
Looks like Paulson is going long Ammo as well. Book profits?
Burn, baby, burn!
#29
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml
the bluff has been called.
sorry #576
The house website seems to be down.
Gov track seems to be having problems keeping up with demand.
I’d say the american people woke up. Or all the foreing investors.
“Paulson to Use All Tools to Protect Financial Markets”
Paulson only has 1 tool. That’s inflation.
“Paulson to Use All Tools to Protect Financial Markets”
Or maybe he’ll get Tom Cruise to appear before congress and make a plea.
don’t know if this was posted …
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml
I weigh 200 lbs., but it’s mostly muscle. Am I “too big to fail?”
“how can i go and find which way my congressman voted”
Go to thomas.loc.goc
When will we see a “perp” walk with Bush/Cheney?
Bost,
what’s the vix?
what does it mean?
do I make a bank run on Citi tomorrow? Mixed news today on the issue and with my limited knowledge/wisdom on these matters I’m 100% confuzzeled :P
BTW, today by govt grew a pair. I’m kind of impressed, for now.
http://ih.fotothing.com/54610.jpg
CNN reports that the late market sell off was due to bargain hunters leaving early for the holidays.
Just answered my own question via Bloomberg.
Option thing
`Fear Index’
“They call the VIX the fear index for a reason,” Brian Battle, vice president of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners, a Chicago-based brokerage and investment adviser. “It boils down to political risk. Markets hate uncertainty and that’s what they’re pricing in.”
Dow down 770
grim Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I’m hitting the road in a few, have the day off tomorrow as well.
I’m not Jewish, but I observe. :)
grim: You work for IDT?
If the problem is that banks won’t lend to each other, (which is the consensus analysis on UK and German TV at the moment) how does a piddley $700bn help?
pret couldn’t have been more %ucking wrong. He is the bipolar of NYC job forecasting and real estate……
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acfoWjInNV9s&refer=us
Every channel I watch is stressing the direness of this situation, they feel the repulicans are playing politics. Why is’nt anyone saying that our employess ( Congress and Senate) listened to their boss (american people) and did what they were told! The employess might not like it and think the boss is nuts but the boss is the boss! The american people have been calling, emailing, faxing, mailing and overwhelmingly sayin NO!.
KL
my congressman voted FOR the bailout. is it bad if i write a letter slamming the guy? or will that put me on his radar?
what a letdown.
ben (584)-
“Paulson to Use All Tools to Protect Financial Markets”
Paulson should use himself. He’s the biggest tool of all.
600
That doesn’t make sense, what they are saying about republicans when 40% of dems voted nay too. Agreed, American people FINALLY spoke in in large numbers and across political lines and for once, they listened.
I figured out a way to make a quick buck…i’m gonna start wittling poles and attaching bandanas on the end with a few survival items in them and tie them to the end of the poles. I’m modeling them after the hobo equipment of the 30’s…I think there will be a good market for them!!!!
I think the American voter has better instincts than the political class. I suspect most realize that government action can not stand in the way of what the markets need to do to correct and all this talk of shoring up housing, etc., sounds like King Canute commanding the tide to stop coming in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBVB1Uc0nko
Ron Paul today debating the bill.
I wish one day soon we get someone like him to run this country. We need it bad.
rhymingrealtor Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
The employess might not like it and think the boss is nuts but the boss is the boss! The american people have been calling, emailing, faxing, mailing and overwhelmingly sayin NO!.
Karen: Guess what? Mostly of the people against this bailout are ignorant or have bet big short the markets. Chaos reigns? Fine, I guess. If I have offended any of you, my apologies. I have mostly remained silent, because I have been busy, but really, the bile spilled here is over the top, and I honestly would have expected a more controlled discourse. I am underwhelmed.
Everyone should be more critical of their information sources. Even the ones that have predicted doom are not necessarily messianic. Do not give iconic status to anyone! We must look to the people who speak solutions, not just those who are cashing in as the hurricane comes tearing through…..
make (606)-
Paul’s a one-trick idiot savant; when you look past his grasp of economics, he’s a certifiable nut job.
If he were truly brilliant- and consistent- he’d be an anarchist, like me. :)
Chi (607)-
The market could use some shorts right about now. Unfortunately, the SEC juryrigged the whole she-bang with a hair-trigger detonator.
Let it burn, baby!
How can anarchy be the answer…I really believe we just need to rewrite the whole constitution and bring back the guillotine(sp?)and behead this oligarchal monster we have created.I’m sorry Mr. Gecko but greed is not good.
MK @ 3:16pm
Some more quotes for you:
“Chuck, stand up, let the people see you!” – Joe Biden to wheelchair-bound Senator Chuck Graham
—————-
“When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn’t just talk about the princes of greed.” – Joe Biden to Katie Couric
(FDR was not president in 1929 and television wasn’t available to Americans until after the 1939 World’s Fair.)
———————-
“Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me.” – Joe Biden at a rally in New Hampshire
———————
“In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.” – Joe Biden speaking to supporter in New Hampshire
I would like to take this opportunity to ridicule the Boomer generation. For every time you bragged about how you bought your house in a “great school district” for 25 cents and now it’s worth eleventy gazillion dollars because you were such a “good investor”; for every time you crowed about your pension plan and your 401k balance; for every time you stuck my generation with the bill for your retirement and health care–this meltdown’s for you.
You get what you deserve for thinking real estate would skyrocket forever, for thinking that you were entitled to retire at 55 with full health care coverage and a pension, for your unchecked greed.
Chi (607)-
I think we are also nearing a time at which controlled discourse will be of little use.
just some feedback from some folks who’s work depends on credit, my brother sells boats and stated their biggest lender said “no more recreational loans, none”…GE has dried up as well.
Another guy that is friends with my hubby stated that the small business loans that allow the franchises to grow (which he sells) are drying up
kevin (610)-
The original Constitution is good enough. The gubmint just quit following it about 40 years ago.
#612
Amen brother
#612 THANK YOU….THAT WINS THE POST OF THE DAY
“How’s my hair look?” – Joe Biden to Stevie Wonder
Who is this Weller hack, who didn’t vote either way today?
I smell capitulation, but not until we have a new president. The american public is stupid and congressmen will sell their souls for their own purposes.
The american people have spoke!! Are these the same dopes who bought the pet rock and keep the home shopping network in business.
C Dawg I never did really see it that way..but you, in that small paragraph, summed up the economic disaster in this country.
I guess the auction for Weller’s vote hadn’t concluded in time for him to cast his vote.
Qwerty,
give it up, it’s over.
hahah #612 – I posted something similar a week ago, wound up in moderation, was wondering if anyone else here left picking up the pieces felt the same way.
Clott, kevin,
How about a nice strict constitutional government. NO Interpreting! Its says what is says!
If you used a strict constitutional definition 90% of the federal government would disappear as it is justified using the interstate commerce claus! HA what a freaking joke. Oh and the FED would be gone as well.
i was just thinking the same Clott what’s he out sick today? sniffles maybe
#626-for 619 sorry kant ceep up, duh
can anyone read my post 56 and 111….i never got a response as to the potential relation here….if there is one at all…..
“Oh and the FED would be gone as well.”
kettle,
You mean that cartel that has been lending money below the inflation rate for the past 5 years? Well, what’s taking so long?
Weller probably wasn’t there. He’s an Illinois congressman who is marrying the daughter of an ex Guatemalan dictator. He had undisclosed property transfers in Nicaragua that are under investigation by the ethics committee and he has stated that he will not seek re-election.
Clott,
Paulson will use ALL of the tools at his disposal????
Does it include this?…….
——————————————
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1
3rd Infantry’s 1st BCT trains for a new dwell-time mission. Helping ‘people at home’ may become a permanent part of the active Army
By Gina Cavallaro – Staff writer
Pos
ted : Monday Sep 8, 2008 6:15:06 EDT
The 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team has spent 35 of the last 60 months in Iraq patrolling in full battle rattle, helping restore essential services and escorting supply convoys.
Now they’re training for the same mission — with a twist — at home.
Beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the 1st BCT will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command, as an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.
It is not the first time an active-duty unit has been tapped to help at home. In August 2005, for example, when Hurricane Katrina unleashed hell in Mississippi and Louisiana, several active-duty units were pulled from various posts and mobilized to those areas.
But this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.
After 1st BCT finishes its dwell-time mission, expectations are that another, as yet unnamed, active-duty brigade will take over and that the mission will be a permanent one.
“Right now, the response force requirement will be an enduring mission. How the [Defense Department] chooses to source that and whether or not they continue to assign them to NorthCom, that could change in the future,” said Army Col. Louis Vogler, chief of NorthCom future operations. “Now, the plan is to assign a force every year.”
The command is at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colo., but the soldiers with 1st BCT, who returned in April after 15 months in Iraq, will operate out of their home post at Fort Stewart, Ga., where they’ll be able to go to school, spend time with their families and train for their new homeland mission as well as the counterinsurgency mission in the war zones.
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:fMtfQU6Nn04J:www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/+http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
so, when will gold buy the DOW?
like, I’ve been saying for years, DOW has been propped up.
SAS
vodka (625)-
You’re coming dangerously close to redeeming your straw man in due course.
The UCC is the mother lode of unintended consequences…most of them very intriguing.
Is your SSN just a SSN…or a CUSIP?
Hmmm…
Did you all know that interest rates are still near historic lows and there’s plenty of inventory to choose from? A realtor emailed me over the weekend to let me know so…. pass the word.
kettle….I think the fundamental problem will always be greed. Corruption will always exist…its an innate human character defect!!! As long as money is the measure of a man there will be shit like this
We need another gtg because I need an excuse to have another one of those tasty Yuenling ales!
Clott,
Paulson will use ALL of the tools at his disposal????
Does it include this?…….
——————————————
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1
3rd Infantry’s 1st BCT trains for a new dwell-time mission. Helping ‘people at home’ may become a permanent part of the active Army
By Gina Cavallaro – Staff writer
Pos
ted : Monday Sep 8, 2008 6:15:06 EDT
The 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team has spent 35 of the last 60 months in Iraq patrolling in full battle rattle, helping restore essential services and escorting supply convoys.
Now they’re training for the same mission — with a twist — at home.
Beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the 1st BCT will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command, as an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrarist attacks.
But this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.
After 1st BCT finishes its dwell-time mission, expectations are that another, as yet unnamed, active-duty brigade will take over and that the mission will be a permanent one.
“Right now, the response force requirement will be an enduring mission. How the [Defense Department] chooses to source that and whether or not they continue to assign them to NorthCom, that could change in the future,” said Army Col. Louis Vogler, chief of NorthCom future operations. “Now, the plan is to assign a force every year.”
Clott,
Paulson will use ALL of the tools at his disposal????
Does it include this?…….
——————————————
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1
3rd Infantry’s 1st BCT trains for a new dwell-time mission. Helping ‘people at home’ may become a permanent part of the active Army
By Gina Cavallaro – Staff writer
Pos
ted : Monday Sep 8, 2008 6:15:06 EDT
The 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team has spent 35 of the last 60 months in Iraq patrolling in full battle rattle, helping restore essential services and escorting supply convoys.
Now they’re training for the same mission — with a twist — at home.
Beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the 1st BCT will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command, as an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.
It is not the first time an active-duty unit has been tapped to help at home. In August 2005, for example, when Hurricane Katrina unleashed hell in Mississippi and Louisiana, several active-duty units were pulled from various posts and mobilized to those areas.
But this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.
After 1st BCT finishes its dwell-time mission, expectations are that another, as yet unnamed, active-duty brigade will take over and that the mission will be a permanent one.
“Right now, the response force requirement will be an enduring mission. How the [Defense Department] chooses to source that and whether or not they continue to assign them to NorthCom, that could change in the future,” said Army Col. Louis Vogler, chief of NorthCom future operations. “Now, the plan is to assign a force every year.”
The command is at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colo., but the soldiers with 1st BCT, who returned in April after 15 months in Iraq, will operate out of their home post at Fort Stewart, Ga., where they’ll be able to go to school, spend time with their families and train for their new homeland mission as well as the counterinsurgency mission in the war zones.
http://tinyurl.com/3wlnga
“so, when will gold buy the DOW?”
sas,
1-1?
scribe,
I’m with ya! I second that!! :)
So what is this that the repubs are claiming?
They would have voted for this bill but Nancy hurt their feelings?
Way to serve your constituents.
“so, when will gold buy the DOW?”
sas,
1-1?
peter schiff said that it Crashproof in 2006. That’s my exit point. Until then I sit tight.
clot
You’re coming dangerously close to redeeming your straw man in due course.
????????
scribe (635)-
By that time your beer money make fill the passenger seat of your car:
http://tinyurl.com/476l2y
Manhattan Inventory Surges; Confidence ‘Shaken’
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/09/manhattan_inventory_surges_con.html
vodka (641)-
Redemption of your straw man:
http://tinyurl.com/3hg9o4
Just know that by having this exchange, you and I have been added to at least 5-6 more watchlists.
606 Make. I’m writing Ron Paul’s name in even though he is backing another candidate.
“The reality of the situation is that an open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention…”
Hammerin Hank, 3/7/07, in Shanghai lecturing Chinese officials.
chicagofinance @ 4:29pm is the voice of reason in a morass of hyperventilation and juvenile political partisanship.
Qwerty @ 5:01 is the voice of a political hack with a hidden agenda.
weird celebration when congress just prioritized populist anger over wall st bonuses above taking steps to address a present danger to every american. do all of you still feel cozy now after the S&P just dropped almost 9% in one day? tomorrow a ton of corporate debt is supposed to roll over– any guess how that will go? you’ve got a non-Wall St bank like SOV that cleared its books months ago from all crap dropping 72% in a day– what makes you think your little local bank is safe? it will really be time to celebrate when we have 20% unemployment, rations, etc, won’t it?
Tom @ 4:39pm
They said the same in 2004.
Understand that the only poll that counts, is the one on November 4th.
Wow Dodd is on CNBC right now practically crying. He is speaking very coherently about various parts of the bill. I still can’t believe he didn’t know he was getting a special deal from Mozillo.
Let’s buy Dodd a Yuenling.
I will buy Gary and Clot a Yuenling.
I will bring my wheelbarrow full of dollars to do it :)
Skep, sorry…the “present danger” you speak of was readily apparent to much of this board years ago. They responded accordingly. These posters have been sticking to their guns the whole time, and you want them to drop them because those who weren’t prepped are about to feel some real pain. Pain that should’ve been inflicted already.
vodka-
Take a scroll through this while you wait for Federal agents to tear down your door:
http://www.commonlawvenue.com/Glossary/GlossaryQ-S.htm
What is this “burn baby burn” thing going on here? How can anyone be happy about this problem? No matter how it ends, it ends badly for all of us – the tax payers that support this country.
653 Dink = Highly Credited
Skep: Wall Street and Main Street’s greed were the “present danger.” What’s happening right now are the consequences of that. This bailout was about whether we should stretch out the pain (take the band-aid off slowly) or just get it all done with quickly (rip it off).
Don’t be hatin’ the cure. Hate the disease.
skep,
“do all of you still feel cozy now after the S&P just dropped almost 9% in one day?”
Yes. In adddition to this, the credit markets told you this over 6 months ago. Actually surprised the sheet didn’t hit the fan a wee bit earlier. Does one really think markets will go one way forever?
“what makes you think your little local bank is safe?”
Nothing, took care of that already.
HE (651)-
I’ll be for the bailout when they remove Dodd’s toenails with pliers on primetime TV.
vodka-
The “Secretary of the Treasury of Puerto Rico” part is my favorite.
“The bill failed by a vote of 205 to 228, with 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans voting in favor and 95 Democrats joining 133 Republicans against.”
Dems voted 60-40 for, and GOP voted 67-33 against. The dems stated that they got their vote out, but at only 60%, I find that hard to swallow. In truth, this was probably the most bipartisanship we have seen in recent house voting.
“1-1?”
yes.
SAS
BC Bob,
That Hammerin Hank fella sounds like a swell guy. You think we can talk him into taking over for Paulson?
sas[661],
I was calculating 2-1, 3-1. I will certainly take 1-1.
#653
Dink– I just disagree that the pain will be isolated to those who deserve it.
Jam,
The house is rotten to the core. we must first tear down the old before rebuilding a sound structure in its place (referring to banking and financial practices)
Tom [662],
Hard to believe, a colleague was trying to convince me that this was the same person. Imagine that?
skep [664],
I agree with you on that point. All you can do is prepare.
skep-tic,
So it won’t be isolated to those that deserve it. At least it’s not isolated to those that don’t deserve it.
skeptic 665
it never is……
btw-
I may be going to China again sometime soon.
Word is that their bubble will burst worse than the states and could follow up right behind ours and then counding.. yikes!
But, the jury is still out, and I need to educate myself somemore.
There is more to the story as to why I am going, that I can’t talk about on these boards. But, for those who know me out there…
“I just may have to pull another carpetbagger trick”
ha ha.
SAS
#664 skep: You are absolutely right,and that is what makes this whole debalce it so unfair,and so wrong. It all could have been prevented.
Haha,
I’m just catching up on cspan. Paused the dvr a few times.
I just heard Barney Frank say pretty much what I said about about repubs being cry babies.
665,
You know, whatever happens, happens. But, I am not about to sit back and be smug about it with a I told you so attitude. We have a serious problem in this country and I hope we can fix it without destroying it.
I guess everyone else on this blog who has sold their homes, stocks, and other assets and is sitting on cash in the mattress, can rejoice at this crash. But I find nothing to be happy about here.
Whose comment was it about going back to local banking and getting rid of the systemic risk of large, anonymous banks? Most brilliant post of the day.
I’m with Clot. Any effort to preserve the present banking system is an effort to preserve a system that doesn’t work.
“It all could have been prevented”
hindsight is always 20/20 bloke!
and do you think it feels when I heard people say that about military action. Talk about sucking an egg.
Look at the bright side, bullets are flying over your head, the guy you just talked to 5 minutes ago is still alive and not split open in front of you, and you don’t have a bamboo shoot dipped in human dung threw your foot.
until then, it will all be alright for everyone. minus an ipod or Direct TV.
SAS
Well, I suppose we all know another bailout/rescue plan is an inevitability.
Is the next one sensible, a la the Swedish banking rescue of the 90’s?
Force the bag holders to write down what they have and re-capitalize those that can survive?
Buying only some of the waste from the current holders, while not recapitalizing them and suspending mark-to-market so there is no clarity was never going to work. Maybe someone at the Treasury can review the Swedish situation, see what was effective and make a proposal based on that.
This thread seems to not too active. Common people, Dow is off 777 and we dont even match that with number of comments. We will have about 100 to make it.
676, I agree “the bag holders” should take write downs in advance of any bail out.
With no Bailout you should expect Corzine to start rethinking his no cut spending ideas?
#674 Whose comment was it about going back to local banking and getting rid of the systemic risk of large, anonymous banks? Most brilliant post of the day.
Ohhh! That was me! Gosh, I’m all blushing now.
[679] Mitch
Why???? Aren’t we the bagholders in NJ?
“Who is this Weller hack, who didn’t vote either way today?”
he is an R from IL. At one point today, all the votes were cast as either Yea or Nay. Then, after several minutes of holding open the vote one vote went from Yea to Not Yet Voted. I have no inside information about what happened but it may have been that he was approached and said something to the effect of, “I will withdraw my vote, and, if you find sufficient votes to change the outcome of the vote, I will change to yes.”
alright Ladies & fellas,
I’m off to do my calisthenics.
Mon night is boxing night.
if anyone wants to hit the heavy bag with me, let me know.
I am be old, but my right hook is still sharp as ever.
Cheerio:)
SAS
They are all panicked on Fast Money. Actually fun to watch :)
When I was younger my older bro used to tell me that one day there would be a revolt in this country. And not just some protests and bullshit but an all out revolution on these organized criminals that we call CEOs or CFOs or Politicians or whatever we call them. I thought he was crazy…..
I don’t think that anymore and I know that the sentiment amongst many of my friends is the same. At what point do we stand up and say
“We’re mad as hell and we’re not goin to take it anymore?”
McC “I call on congress to get back obviously.. immediately to address this crisis.”
Did he fall on his head and think he’s already president?
At what point do we stand up and say
“We’re mad as hell and we’re not goin to take it anymore?”
kevin,
When the American consumer realizes the power they have. That they vote every day and if they want change they should vote for change.
The only change they’re voting for now is pocket change.
Consider this:
The President of the United States makes several announcements, one of them in prime time , telling the American people that the entire financial system is about to crash and that we may, essentially, be facing the 1930s all over again. Then, despite sending his Treasury Secretary to emphasize the impending doom, he has 2/3 of the Republicans reject his recomended solution, and he can’t get through congress legislation he says is necessary to stave off disaster.
Clearly, he is a spent force, politically. Unfortunately, his impotence comes at a time that he insists we must have action or face disaster. In such a circumstance, he should:
1) Fire the Treasury Secretary who, up until a few weeks ago was spinning tales about how well things were going;
2) Fire anyone else on the economic team who did not speak up early in 2008 to warn him about the impending danger; and,
3) Resign anad allow Cheney a chance to work with congress to get something done in the next few days.
At least these moves would show the urgency of the situation anc clear the decks of the folks who will not or cannot get good policy implemented quickly.
I have already said this to folks within the White House. I guess if I am suddenly silent, you will know why, lol.
“Did he fall on his head and think he’s already president?”
Someone had to tell people what to do, the president seems to be curled up under his desk saying, “I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween. I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween. I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween.”
Damn… for a moment there I was hoping to sell you Taxpayers a sh_tload of priceless sub-prime mortgages.
Crap, Hank had to let me down! Tell you what gringos, I will pack with the MBS a few warrants, CDOs, and tickets to Disney if you call your congresscritters and tell them to pass the bill.
Cheney???? I haven’t heard his name in months
689—LMFAO
Kevin,
I see everything as propaganda now and have shared your bros sentiments for awhile now. When the right starts French bashing about their lifestyle, political trends, strikes and protests, its code for “don’t let them stand up and own their government. Gubmint bad, gubmint bad, ungah.”
#681
Corzine might and probably on this news think well the tax payers in NJ didn’t have to pay for a bailout so they saved 700 billion. Hey we need to raise their taxes, tolls and increase government spending. WooHoo!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?em
snip
Supporters vowed to try to bring the rescue package up again as soon as possible, perhaps late Wednesday or Thursday, but there were no definite plans to do so. A former Treasury Department official predicted that the administration would try to get another House vote before the end of the week, and with only “tiny tweaks” to the package, given the relative closeness of the vote.
snip
The vote was a catastrophic political defeat for President Bush, who tried to muster national support for a recovery plan in a televised address last Wednesday, then lobbied wavering Republican legislators in intensely personal telephone calls on Monday morning.
snip
Well they are not going to distract me with Clay Aiken gay stuff on this one….they can’t brush this under the rug….we have a real debacle on our hands here
SAS,
Regarding the collapse of china….
That has been clear for a while if you looked at certain numbers. Its not just RE thats is about to burst.
Hey,
Pappy was George Herbert Walker Bush. I say folks should rename W as “George Herbert Hoover Bush”
John M says BO has failed to lead during financial crisis
As the two campaign in battleground states, McCain delivers a sharply worded attack, saying O is ‘watching from the sidelines.’
By Michael Muskal and Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
11:46 AM PDT, September 29, 2008
COLUMBUS, OHIO — After making it through their first debate with their civility intact, the major presidential candidates today stepped up their rhetoric in attacks over how to deal with economic issues.
At a rally here, Republican John McCain accused rival Sen. BO of failing to show any leadership during the congressional negotiations over a $700-billion bailout package, which was defeated in the Houses today. SNIP
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-campaign30-2008sep30,0,2146687.story
Who the heck is Clay Aiken and why do people care if he is gay?
John M says BO has failed to lead during financial crisis
As the two campaign in battleground states, McCain delivers a sharply worded attack, saying O is ‘watching from the sidelines.’
By Michael Muskal and Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
11:46 AM PDT, September 29, 2008
COLUMBUS, OHIO — After making it through their first debate with their civility intact, the major presidential candidates today stepped up their rhetoric in attacks over how to deal with economic issues.
At a rally here, Republican John M accused rival Sen. BO of failing to show any leadership during the congressional negotiations over a $700-billion bailout package, which was defeated in the Houses today. SNIP
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-campaign30-2008sep30,0,2146687.story
John M says BO has failed to lead during financial crisis
As the two campaign in battleground states, M delivers a sharply worded attack, saying O is ‘watching from the sidelines.’
By Michael Muskal and Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
11:46 AM PDT, September 29, 2008
COLUMBUS, OHIO — After making it through their first debate with their civility intact, the major presidential candidates today stepped up their rhetoric in attacks over how to deal with economic issues.
At a rally here, Republican John M accused rival Sen. BO of failing to show any leadership during the congressional negotiations over a $700-billion bailout package, which was defeated in the Houses today. SNIP
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-campaign30-2008sep30,0,2146687.story
Okay, I googled him. A singer? People are up in arms because an entertainer announced he is gay. Wow, I never knew there were any gay entertainers. WTF, people. THAT is what concerns people? Egads, we are a culture in trouble.
Shore,
It’s funny because he denied it for a long time.
And he’s not even a republican.
Ket/John/Clot:
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20080926/capt.cps.nsg20.260908230841.photo00.photo.default-
Shore Guy,
where have you been? The Big Gay Distraction (and other meaningless social issues) have been political hay for the GOP for the past 25 plus years.
Might be finally running out of steam.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Photo-Highlight/ss/photos_highlight_fp;_ylt=Am.fxeEVI0zgDUxeJSB23rms0NUE
Lets try that again
Hell it worked with Anna Nicole Smith and OJ
weapons of mass distraction
Shore…
ehhhh, where’s the latex? not even a riding crop or ball gag? at least a pair of stilleto’s?????
Sen. O: “Democrats Republicans get it done”
Did he fall on his head and think he’s already preaident?
Tom/Barbara,
I ddon’t understand the attraction of one man to another; I don’t even know that I understand the attraction between any given man and any given woman for that matter. I see various hetrosexual couples and can’t understand what in the heck attracted one to the other. Looking back to around 5th grade, I remember one day thinking, “Boy [insert girl’s name here], she LOOKS GOOD.” There was no deciding to suddenly like girls, it was just there. Why the world is obsessed with ones’ attraction for others’ just perplexes me.
Beyond that, why the world cares about the private lives of assorted celebs also perplexes me. Who gives a frig what shoes they wear, with whom they have just broken up, yadda, yadda. It is of no importance.
“ehhhh, where’s the latex? not even a riding crop or ball gag? at least a pair of stilleto’s?????”
Ket,
That one just went over my head.
Shore,
here is he link you were looking for
http://damncoolpics.blogspot.com/2008/09/oktoberfest-2008-in-munich.html
Must go to Bavaria. Must go to Bavaria. München, gut.
two people who fought the fed:
Lincoln said:
“I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country….corporations (including bankers) have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.”
Lincoln refused to pay bankers usurious rates to finance the Civil War and got Congress to pass the 1862 Legal Tender Act. It empowered the US Treasury to issue “greenbacks” that were interest-free because government printed its own money. When Lincoln was assassinated in 1865, the “Greenback Law” was rescinded. A new national banking act was passed, and the government once again had to pay interest to bankers.
On June 4, 1963, President Kennedy issued executive order (EO) 11110 giving the president authority to issue currency. He ordered the treasury to begin printing “United States (Treasury) Notes” to replace “Federal Reserve Notes.” He began a process to let government control its own money and no longer private bankers under the guise of the Federal Reserve. Months later, Kennedy was assassinated. Once Lyndon Johnson took office, he rescinded EO 11110 and reestablished the current system. More on that below.
Shore, -688
That might convince me.
KL
When will everyone realize that you are biologically inclined to be attracted to another human being, maybe even just for procreation? Past that, I don’t buy into relationships/marriage/long-term prison-like commitments. Why bother?
Why did the bail-out bill fail?
By Kevin Connolly
BBC News, Washington
There were a few moments between the casting of the final vote in Congress and the announcement that the $700bn (£380bn) bail-out had been rejected when the world of American politics appeared to be frozen.
Votes in the House of Representatives are not official until the Speaker’s gavel is lowered and – for what felt like an eternity – Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s gavel remained suspended above her desk.
News services waited for several minutes before calling the result – a rare enough occurrence in a world of instant information.
Rumours began to circulate that attempts were being made to change the minds of some of the members who had voted “no”.
Stunned
It would be an extraordinary step in a democracy to ask a member of a legislature to simply reverse a vote on an issue vital to the national interest without any extra revision or debate, and the rumours may not be true.
But it captures something of the mood of stunned apprehension in the House that they were believed even for a moment.
In that moment, the House appeared to be absorbing, very slowly, the sheer magnitude of what it had done.
Members had rejected a bill which the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had insisted was essential to the stability and viability of the American financial system – and by extension the financial system of the entire world.
This has all come at the most awkward possible moment in the American political cycle, when normally powerful institutions do not have the normal range of tools of persuasion at their disposal
The Bush administration had argued that without its bail-out plan and the funds to back it, the American economy would begin to grind to a halt.
Everyone knew there was deep unhappiness among both Republicans and Democrats with the nature of the American government’s blueprint for rescuing the country but very few – if any – predicted that the sentiment would be strong enough to provoke a revolt on this scale.
Members of Congress have been dealing with two powerful conflicting forces over the last week.
The first was remorseless pressure from the White House – the argument that the country faced a crisis so profound that unless they approved the government’s plans, American capitalism would grind to a halt as funds flowing between the banks began to dry up.
But the second pressure which is much harder to measure came from ordinary voters writing or emailing their own members of Congress angrily demanding that they reject a scheme which is universally perceived here as a bail-out of Wall Street bankers.
They are perceived as greedy, incompetent fat cats who have created this crisis themselves and who are now being allowed to pick the pockets of American voters to fix it.
Awkward moment
A majority of House Democrats did back the bill, in spite of their doubts about plans which appear to be rescuing irresponsible banks, rather than the customers they are throwing out of their re-possessed homes.
The real problems came on the Republican side – where a large majority saw this as an un-American measure which flies in the face of the basic rules of capitalism.
To make things worse, this has all come at the most awkward possible moment in the American political cycle, when normally powerful institutions do not have the normal range of tools of persuasion at their disposal.
George W Bush, his authority sapped anyway by his abiding unpopularity, is very much in the Lame Duck phase of the closing days of his presidency.
He simply did not have the clout to get the job done.
Members of Congress face not just the abstract knowledge of the need for re-election which haunts them throughout their working lives, but the immediate knowledge that they will be facing the judgement of voters in November.
Politicians shy away from difficult and unpopular decisions at the best of times. They are inclined to run a mile from this kind of issue, at least for now.
That is a crucial caveat.
The most frequently asked question of all at this kind of moment is “What Happens Now?” and the short answer is that the Bush administration aided by the two sets of party leaders on Capitol Hill will have another go.
They might need to offer concessions to individual members to turn them around and they will certainly need to re-write parts of the bill – but the US government clearly cannot give up on this.
Frightening
Before the search for a bi-partisan deal can resume, you can expect a fair bit of bi-partisan bloodletting.
Some Republicans are saying they were preparing to vote “yes” until they heard the closing remarks of Speaker Nancy Pelosi who criticised the ethos of Republican economics, which prompted them to change their minds at the very last minute.
Senior Democrats are contemptuous of the idea that senior legislators would plunge their country’s financial system into chaos in what would amount to a fit of pique.
The search for a fix is already under way, but you can be sure it will now take place against a backdrop of plunging share prices all around the world.
It is possible that the sense of global crisis may – perversely – offer a way out of this.
American voters simply have not seen this as a crisis that affects their real lives on Main Street – it is seen as a welfare scheme for the humbled plutocrats of Wall Street.
If the problems deepen and people suddenly see unemployment rising because businesses cannot get money from the banks to pay their bills and honour their payrolls, then that sentiment might change.
That is the optimistic assessment – that American lawmakers and voters having registered their pain and anger will eventually fall into line and give the US Treasury the money it wants.
The pessimistic assessment is almost too frightening to contemplate.
It is that a majority of members of Congress, backed by their voters, simply do not believe in a plan which basically involves the United States government borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up a financial system which is clearly deeply flawed.
If the warnings from US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson are to believed, such a decision would usher in an age of catastrophe.
We will discover in the next few days which of those two interpretations will be borne out – when the issue is put back before the House of Representatives and the House once again says “yes” or “no”.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7643199.stm
“I don’t buy into relationships/marriage/long-term prison-like commitments. Why bother?”
So you have someone willing to share your bed with you when you become old and wrinkly.
It’s either marriage or legalize prostitution.
shore 712
i would give you a link but i dont think grim would approve. probably NSFUM (not safe for undisturbed minds)
Great assessment from above:
“George W Bush, his authority sapped anyway by his abiding unpopularity, is very much in the Lame Duck phase of the closing days of his presidency.
He simply did not have the clout to get the job done.”
September 29, 2008
Dear Partners,
We are pleased to announce that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has agreed to the sale of a significant
portion of its Investment Management Division (“IMD”) to Bain Capital LLC and Hellman & Friedman
LLC, in partnership with IMD’s existing management. The transaction will create a focused, independent
investment management company that will be a leading provider of world class traditional and alternative
investment products and services.
The Private Fund Investments Group (“PFIG”), which includes the fund of funds, secondary investment, and
co-investment businesses, will be a part of this transaction. Attached is a copy of the press release. The
PFIG team is very excited about the stability and benefits this transaction brings to our investors, including
the intellectual capital, resources, and deal flow of a premier, independent, investment management firm.
Importantly for all of our investment partners, the cash and assets held by the investment programs of PFIG
are held by and in the name of each respective fund and are not available to creditors of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. or any of its affiliates that have filed for bankruptcy protection.
We are particularly proud of our PFIG team who throughout these difficult times has remained focused on
our clients and the portfolios we manage. The entire PFIG team remains intact and focused on building
value for our partners.
We hope you share our enthusiasm about this news. We greatly appreciate your patience and commitment
during this period and we look forward to continuing our partnership with you. We will be contacting you
shortly to discuss the pending transaction. In the interim, please feel free to call any one of us with
questions.
Sincerely,
Anthony Tutrone
Global Head Private Fund Investments Group
Enclosure
I have Depends for when I’m old and wrinkly – it’s all the support I need!
PS I’m 30 and prostitution should be legal by then….
Here we have a nation trying to weave its ship of state through shallow water with razor sharp roch ready to rip our hull apart and we have the political equivalent of Capt. Hazelwood in charge.
Here we have a nation trying to weave its ship of state through shallow water with razor sharp rock ready to rip our hull apart and we have the political equivalent of Capt. Hazelwood in charge
Shore: Look, I want a 1,000 post day, but dupes are cheating……
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/markets/markets_newyork/?postversion=2008092917
Charts of ten greatest point and percentage losses in Wall Street history
Shore 702,
Philosopher kettle says:
Why question the world around you? Why not surround yourself with constant, unrelenting , mindless entertainment? We might ask what is the purpose of an ignorant existence? Further still, what is there in merely existing? Simply existing brings humans down to the level of objects; they might have utility or even purpose, but where is the meaning? Existence without meaning is surely not living your life, but just experiencing it.
Further, and more to the point of the current american condition; how can you know pleasure if have never known pain, hot without cold, love without loss. It is the classic Yin and Yang. One has no meaning without the other. Americans have been so prosperous for so long that liberty of body and liberty of thought have lost meaning. The words of our forefathers sound courageous and inspiring, the words of giants. Those words have little real meaning to the majority of people, simply because they have never experienced the lack there of.
You are not going to start calling people “Grasshopper” now are you?
I need to go do some, umm, gardening.
dazzle the plebes with T&A and lame reality TV and dumb game shows where you can GET RICH QUICK …
and then a couple years later, attempt to dip into their pockets to help out risk takers.
what a joke. i know Chi-Fi and some others think we NEED a bailout … but I really do think America needs a wakeup call.
Stop living on credit. Spend within your means. If you can’t afford it, forget it. Why haven’t we seen any talking heads pontificating about simple stuff like that on TV?
hey check out this website—–slowmovement.com
sas (670)-
Are you James Bond?
wow, that Lincoln-JFK fighting the fed stuff is neat and also a bit scary.
i admit to liking conspiracy theories.
got a link?
jam (673)-
That’s why it’s truly a cancer on our society. Much like with chemo, the only possible way to cure the patient is to kill the patient.
We’ve already had a post-like-john contest. I would say the next one should be post-like-SAS. Although we would probably trigger monitoring by the NSA.
tosh (676)
Ain’t them Swedish people soci@lists?
“Maybe someone at the Treasury can review the Swedish situation, see what was effective and make a proposal based on that.”
Shore,
“Here we have a nation trying to weave its ship of state through shallow water with razor sharp rock ready to rip our hull apart and we have the political equivalent of Capt. Hazelwood in charge”
Have you considered that we just don’t trust the crew that lead us into these troubled waters to navigate us to safety?
I’m curious, if there’s a democrat in the white house and the GOP doesn’t win back Congress, do you stand to lose your job/contracts?
Clot,
“Ain’t them Swedish people soci@lists?”
Aren’t we pretty much too now?
Clott,
World bank agent is more like it. ( or former)
if you want to know what that really mans look into how banks such as BofA, Citi and numerous other “big boys” extracted huge sums of wealth out of Argentina and then essentially charged it back to the Argentinian people as a national debt. You can see similar actions pretty much anywhere the IMF or world bank are involved. it also goes further then bank accounts. As SAS said before tech, resources etc. The primary goal is wealth extraction and concentration
if your curious start with a book called
“Confessions of an economic hit man”
HE (684)-
Call me when they’re all pissing themselves.
All the CNBC hosts oughta be nervous. All they can own is GE stock. Forget the AAA rating; GE is high up on the “toast” list.
Oh, yeah. They’ll be done, too.
I’m delighted the bailout bill failed.
Why would you trust Col Klink with a blank check for 700 billion to buy whatever assets he wants from whomever he pleases?
Now if they passed a bill paying Warren Buffet or soneone like him 5 basis points a year of the nav and 20% of the profits to run it, well that’s another story.
At least the Swedish has real and funded social programs, and an education system that is more effective at a fraction of the cost.
Sad news. looks like they are going to use FDIC to bailout these institutions. Paulson & Co will somehow find a way to screw the public.
Pine,
of course. This bailout WILL happen one way or another. its not about you or me. Its about GS, WAMU etc. We are expendable.
#739 – Ain’t them Swedish people soci@lists
Yeah, they are.
I really do prefer to let the market sort this out, get it done quickly, and purge the system of decades of irresponsible Fed lending. We both know that that is probably an unrealistic expectation.
A Swedish type re-capitalization is the least onerous interventionist solution I have seen.
Whatever does happen though, from here forward America is going to be a different place. I would really like it to be the country of the Jeffersonian enlightened individuals it never got a chance to be. Here’s hoping though.
At least the Swedish has real and funded social programs, and an education system that is more effective at a fraction of the cost.
They also make the Koenigsegg.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11Fl9ZVJ7B8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLz_yEGX4j0
i really like these 2 links about JFK
chi (721)-
Dear Partners,
ps: We were short LEH.
724, that is.
Yea i’m with kettle here the bailout’s gonna happen….they just made it “look” like they give a crap about us…they’ll rewrite it and it will pass later in the week
d2B (738)-
I think I probably brought the NSA along when I started posting here.
Tom (741)-
Damn. I was just getting used to being Georgian.
Ara Hovnanian and the tar sands on top of his head are on CNBC now.
He looks like somebody just killed his cat.
Mark Haynes just lighting up Hovnanian right now.
711 Kett;e
Wanna go shopping?
Hovnanian: “it’s a great time to buy…”
I sh*t you not.
Clot,
between you and me most of the 3 letter agencies probably make up 1/4 of the hit counts on the blog.
have i mentioned that i get pulled aside EVERY time i go through an airport?
I really don’t buy the argument some lawmakers are making regarding removing the accounting guidelines that requires banks to mark their assets to market.
That just makes no sense.
That’s saying… We know they’re illiquid, we know they’re not worth much if anything, but lets pretend they are so that banks can balance their books.
vodka (758)-
Me too.
Clot,
After Hovnanian started discounting their homes, didn’t he decide to increase prices? Reason being that he thought people were waiting for prices to stop falling before htey bought. So he gave them what they were waiting for.
Wonder how that turned out. Oh yeah, 8 straight quarters of losses.
Clott,
the funny thing is that they must have had me pinned at a young age. new fangled profiling? I was getting pulled aside since i was 19, 20. But i have a relativly squeaky clean background.?.?.?
Tom (761)-
The guy is an absolute pinhead. Nothing bad enough can happen to him.
“Have you considered that we just don’t trust the crew that lead us into these troubled waters to navigate us to safety?”
I have considered that and I don’t trust Capt. Hazelwood (You know who he is, right?). That is why I want Bu-sh to fire the current economic team and then resign. Let Dic-k and a new team try to do something in the next few days.
“I’m curious, if there’s a democrat in the white house and the GOP doesn’t win back Congress, do you stand to lose your job/contracts?”
With the particular work that I do that involves the government, it makes no difference at all.
“That’s saying… We know they’re illiquid, we know they’re not worth much if anything, but lets pretend they are so that banks can balance their books.”
What they are asserting is that, although they may be worthless today, we are not trying to liquidate them today, thus we should be able to carry them at the value we believe (hope? pray?) they will have at some point down the road.
On our way to a 1,000 post thread, let me solve the “who is Clay Aiken” mystery.
He was an “American Idol” and a heart throb with lots of female fans.
Shore (765)-
But what’s really happening is:
1. The asset to which the securities are levered is losing value.
2. As the asset continues to lose value, rising foreclosure rates cause the securities’ values to continue to drop.
3. The asset is still so overbuilt, overbought and overleveraged that the only reasonable expectation is further deterioration to the overall portfolio of securities.
4. The underlying default rate in the asset has caused some of the securities to be rendered worthless. This trend can only be expected to continue. See #1, 2 and 3.
We are trying to put a positive spin on the ultimate negative feedback loop.
768 Clot
The only thing positive I see is the possibility my husband might win the gun dispute sooner rather then later.
Clot,
!) Yes, 2) Yes, 3) Yes, 4) Yes. I was not saying I agreed with them. I was just stating what I think they are saying and why.
“He was an “American Idol” and a heart throb with lots of female fans.”
Okay, sounds like a fair number of gay guys I have known over the years.
Lost,
Here is how far things have progressed. When I told Mrs. Shore we should remove a few thousand to stash away for emergency purposes, this same person who gave me grief for having $200 set aside on Dec 31, 1999 didn’t even bilink before saying, “lets do it.” We will need to see whether we bite and pick up a couple pounds of gold, just in case.
yes, we are so philosophically pure that we do not need direct deposit, atms, debit and credit cards, online bill paying, financing for cars, houses, boats, furniture. We do not need to work at a company that uses short term debt to meet its payroll. We do not need to drive on highways or ride on trains that use muni debt financing. We don’t need to shop at any stores that use credit to purchase inventory. we are not reliant on farms that use credit to finance crops. we don’t need to buy gas from countries that support our currency via purchase of treasuries and agency debt. we don’t need any debt at all so why don’t we just enjoy the collapse.
I need to start off this blog with a disclaimer…This may offend people…OK I said it.
When I was growing up, this country was a fantastic place to live. There were opportunities for small business owners, our status as a superpower country was undoubted and we, as Americans were viewed in a positive light on a global level. Well, anyone who has lived long enough knows that all good things tend to come to an end. That time is here. We have been lied to and manipulated for so long by our government that we got too comfortable. We just assumed that we would be led by fellow Americans who wanted to see us succeed and continue to be a great nation. It’s just not the case! These sub-human politicians that run our nation could care less about us. They bail out their buddies’ failed companies with our hard earned tax dollars all the while devaluing our american currency on a global level. It’s organized crime!
When I try to explain the economic disaster we are in most people’s eyes haze over and this general look of “could care less” streams across their faces. Well guess what? You better start caring or we are going to be nothing more than a 3rd world country in a very short time. Am I overreacting? NO! Look around and wake up. Small businesses are struggling and collapsing. Hard working people are slaves to their mortgages so much that Prozac or Paxil seems to be the only answer. People are depressed. People are looking for escape through drugs or through ridiculous reality TV shows. Start paying attention!!!!!!!!Do research. Get online and look at what is happening!!! Get mad!!!! Get pissed!!!! If you have children, Give a shit!!
The irony of the situation is that for now I am fine. I have no debt, I have a good job, and my life is generally very good…so people ask me why I’m so angry about our current situation? I care about my nation. I care about my friends and I just don’t want to see anyone suffer at the hands of the fascist greed mongers who run our country. I used to be so proud to call myself an American. Now it borders on embarassment.
Look into the reasons we would rather pump in 700 billion dollars to bailout failed companies instead of investing 700 billion dollars into funding education for our children’s futures. Ask yourself why we pump billions of dollars into a war over oil…when we could pump that money into cars which run on Cooking oil….yes cooking oil…look it up!! They exist and a full tank will actually last about 2 weeks at 2.50 per gallon.
It’s so sad what has happened to us
772 Shore
My problem is most of our “cash” is in ING. So technically, we have to do 2 bank runs. How long does it take to get a gun permit in NY?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/09/29/bailout.rollcall.0929.pdf
How the entire House voted.
Shore Guy Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
“Did he fall on his head and think he’s already president?”
Someone had to tell people what to do, the president seems to be curled up under his desk saying, “I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween. I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween. I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover for halloween.”
OMIGOD=== PEEING… yes, peeing in my pants!!! LMAO…..ROTFL…
sl
lost,
I don’t know what it is in nj, ny, or pa for that matter. I suspect it is fairly short period/ easy process for long guns used for hunting.
Seems like gold is on its way to $1000 again…
Gawd… take one little afternoon nap and wake up to all of this…. sheeesh.
sl
Shore
I just found out its 6 months and has a non refundable fee of $400. No wonder people get them illegally.
lost (769)-
If he doesn’t, he should hold you at gunpoint until you give in. :)
skep (773)-
Nice try. Not biting. Too many people have cried wolf too many times.
#704 shore: we are a culture in trouble.
You are just discovering that!!!!
781 Clot
If he does that he better pull the trigger thus winning the argument. Because once he put it down, I’d beat him with it. :)
but Clot– at the end of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”, the Wolf actually came
lost,
That is hand gun or long gun?
lost (784)-
I’d buy tickets to that.
skep (785)-
It’s a story…not an actual predictor of what would happen.
Don’t mind me. I’m still a little tender over my gubmint’s declaration that people who invest like me caused out entire financial system to fail.
If it’s going to now fail, I want to get my money’s worth.
Call me irrational.
Shore
Handgun. There is a long gun permit also but I didn’t look into it much. I think its $140 and probably takes the same amount of time. Also, these fees don’t include the fingerprinting which is roughly another $100.
Clot
You voyeur you.
OT- great GG tonight!
To me, there are two separate issues. One is the utter failure of gov’t. that is clear, and it is clear why nobody believes them at this point. the other issue is what is happening in the markets which is utter chaos. you do not need anyone to tell you something is seriously wrong. just look at what is happening. now, I understand the view that you might not trust these people to solve the problem, but I think you have to admit that there is a real problem that, if we could actually trust the gov’t, would be an instance in which gov’t intervention is warranted.
skep (792)-
If we had a gubmint we could trust, a problem like this would never develop to the point we’ve currently reached.
Your constant moving of the target, manipulation of the answer by repeatedly changing the question and drawing the most torturous and outrageous analogies and parallels is becoming tedious.
I really don’t think you are dishonest or have an agenda at all. It’s just that we’re about to get a big serving of shit pie, and you’re still wondering why the pastry chef can’t bake up another dish.
Clot– I am just wondering why we (as a society) can’t put all of the problems of the past aside for even a week to deal with a current problem. I am shifting my views because I believe it is important not to be overly ideological in situations like this.
Hypothetical question….let’say I have a steady income and money set aside (income in low 6 figures)…have about 60,000 in savings now. What is the best strategy to invest in real estate? Should I wait until the market crashes to the ground completely or will the bailout (which I feel is still going to happen) keep the market prices high like they are now?????
I guess my question is will home prices completely crash bailout or no bailout in the coming year or 2?
kotja– I think most here would say prices will still go down regardless of a bailout. probably better to wait unless you see an unusually good deal
skep (794)-
Because the current problem is a broken, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Every possible solution spawns five guaranteed disasters.
The problems of the past can’t be put aside, because they involve the very incompatible elements of loss of trust, coupled with banking. I forget who said it, but I remember reading a quote that loosely maintained that the business of banking is not about money, it’s about trust. And, once the trust is gone, the bank is done.
Well, we now have a situation in which failed banks have now turned to the US gubmint (no trust issues there…LOL!) in an effort to shore up an illusion of value which never, ever existed.
If a Martian appeared amongst us right now, he’d just order the final annihilation of Earth and fly his spaceship to the Moon to watch the fireworks.
kot (795)-
“What is the best strategy to invest in real estate?”
Short every REIT that you suspect of having even slightly cooked books or projections.
skep (794)-
“What’s past is prologue.”
-Shakespeare, The Tempest
Okay, gang. I took it to 800, watched GG and read Roubini’s latest missive of doom. Also posted here way too much today.
‘Night all.
For the first time, in a very long time, I felt represented in our gov’t. The House reps grew a set today and weren’t embarassed to show it.
Of course that may change in a few days but, if only for today, I feel represented.
A great GG, indeed.
“Handgun. There is a long gun permit also but I didn’t look into it much. I think its $140 and probably takes the same amount of time. Also, these fees don’t include the fingerprinting which is roughly another $100.”
Handguns are a doubleedged sword. I for one would never want one in my home. Anyone who sees fit to go down that path would be well served by first taking gun safety courses and getting a lot of range practice before purchasing one. I believe that SAS has thoughts about this and weapon storage.