From Crain’s:
New York City’s condominium market may be in even worse shape than the commonly used yardsticks show.
In Manhattan in the first quarter, sales were halved from year-earlier levels even as more apartments flooded onto the market, leaving it choking on an 18.6-month supply of units. Meanwhile, in the recently red-hot neighborhood of Williamsburg in Brooklyn, sales in the period plummeted by 70% as even more units expanded the property glut there.
As bad as those figures look, they may actually overstate the health of the market. Industry experts point to a growing mountain of so-called shadow inventory that is not reflected in the data. This includes units that are held by developers in soon-to-be completed buildings, as well as those kept off the market by banks and by individual owners who are waiting for conditions to improve before they tack up “For Sale” signs.
…
“We are undercounting the housing stock,” says Jonathan Miller, chief executive of appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. “And when you have more inventory than the market can absorb, it places pressure on prices.”In a report on Manhattan residential real estate this spring, Mr. Miller estimated that in addition to the 10,445 condominiums that showed up in unsold inventory, there were as many as 7,000 shadow units.
An analysis conducted by Crain’s, with help from Mr. Miller and brokerage firm Aptsandlofts.com, shows the scope of the problem in two bellwether neighborhoods: Williamsburg and Manhattan’s financial district.
In the latter, there are currently 410 condominiums for sale. But according to Crain’s research—which involved tabulating all the units in a dozen financial district condo buildings—there are also nearly 1,000 units lurking in the shadows. In Williamsburg, meanwhile, feverish building has helped put 2,820 units on the block this year, according to Aptsandlofts.com. But there are almost as many again not yet accounted for; 2,760 units will come on line next year.
…
With shadow inventory adding downward pressure to prices, some developers are abandoning hopes of selling their units and are offering them as rentals instead. Rather than collect lump sums at sale, as planned, they will collect monthly rents—and rack up big losses. But at this point, even the rental market is glutted, and the stream of new units shows little sign of slowing.“More inventory will continue to lower rents,” says Marc Lewis, president of Century 21 NY Metro, who believes that Manhattan vacancy rates are closer to 5% than the 2% reported by most industry players.
Given the dismal market and a lack of financing, few new buildings—if any—will be started in coming months. But scores of properties that were already under construction before the credit crisis of 2007 will hit the market in the next few years.
From USA Today:
Asbury Park rising blocked by recession
For 15 years, it stood as a rusting, 12-story mockery of this faded shore resort’s revival dream. But on April 29, 2006, that would end. The skeleton of the condominium tower that was supposed to spur waterfront renewal, yet foundered on recession and lingered in bankruptcy, would implode.
It was a celebration. By 7 a.m. 1,500 people had gathered on the oceanfront, some with lattes, others Bloody Marys. When a city councilman pushed the detonator and the steel frame collapsed, the crowd roared. “Like the storming of the Bastille,” recalls Terry Reidy, the city manager.
The future seemed assured, because on the same lot a new developer was ready to start work on a 16-story luxury condo tower. It was part of another redevelopment plan for a waterfront of homes, shops, restaurants, clubs. And, through that waterfront, for a city reborn.
Three years later, the concrete stub of the new tower sits unfinished on the same lot — one of many such projects around the nation that the recession has stalled, altered or endangered.
It’s unclear when construction on the tower will resume, or when life will come to the vacant fields and parking lots around it.
Kettle: Thanks for the charts from the last thread. Seems NJ added about 100k state workers since 1998, not counting educators? Were they all police and fire? Why is it when its time to downsize, they’re always the groups that get hit?
Barron’s: Next Real Estate Shoe Is Not Dropping
“AS RECENTLY AS LAST MONTH, stories were being written about how the next shoe to drop on the economy would be in the commercial real estate sector. It did not take much of a Web search to find warnings going as far back as early 2008.
The talk was that hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial mortgages would default.
Yet, prices of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been soaring over the past few weeks and the technicals have not looked this good in a long time.
Mr. Market does not quite agree with the talking heads.
While the sector is quite overbought in the short-term based on traditional measures, long-term investors can finally feel better about adding them to the universe of potential purchases.
To be sure, a rising market tide does indeed raise most boats. The ones that do not rise, to continue the analogy, are leaky boats heading for further trouble. Commercial REITs not only rose but also outperformed the market the during the current summer rally.”
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124987654611518761.html?ru=yahoo
Mr. Market does not quite agree with the talking heads.
Mr. Market doesn’t exactly have the best track record these days.
Here are a few month-to-month comparisons (comparing the periods of Mid-June to Mid-July against Mid-July to present) of important metrics for all Co-ops & Condos in Manhattan; this is the closest thing I have to real time information as it happens so do your own interpretations – generally speaking, for seasonal markets its best to derive interpretations from year over year trends to filter out a seasonality effect:
AVERAGE LISTING PRICE – $1,391,247, or down 0.42% comparing prior two 4-week periods
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD – 731, or up 51% comparing prior two 4-week periods
LISTINGS REMOVED FROM MARKETPLACE – 1,348, or up 50% comparing prior two 4-week periods
NEW LISTINGS – 942, or up 0.21% comparing prior two 4-week periods
CONTRACTS SIGNED – 1,030, or up 4% comparing prior two 4-week periods
LISTINGS WITH PRICE CUTS – 955, or down 15% comparing prior two 4-week periods
AVERAGE PRICE PER SFT – $1,088, or down 0.91% comparing prior two 4-week periods
http://www.urbandigs.com/
What a bullsh*t, misleading headline.
From the Daily Record:
7-cent mistake leads Mich. family to lose their home
A family is losing its home because it underpaid the mortgage by 7 cents in January, a legal aid group says.
“The bank seems more interested in having another empty house in Michigan than working with the family,” Sydney Rooks, a lawyer for Legal Services of Eastern Michigan, said last week.
Rooks said Creg and Bonnie Berger inadvertently underpaid their mortgage because a postal clerk issued a money order for $440 rather than $440.07. The couple didn’t catch the mistake and they were four weeks late making February’s payment of $690.07. She said they had been late before.
Though the Bergers caught up by mid-April, Rooks said, Countrywide Financial and its new owner, Bank of America, rejected the couple’s payments. Bank of America countered that it and earlier loan servicers bent over backward to accommodate Bonnie Berger, who has been repeatedly delinquent since purchasing the modest four-bedroom frame bungalow for $38,650 in 1997. It said Berger rejected a reasonable offer last week to get reinstated.
“There is no story of a 7-cent foreclosure,” Bank of America spokesman Rick Simon said. “The bank has made determined efforts through the years to help this borrower keep her home, including delaying the foreclosure.”
…
egotiations to resolve the problem failed last week when the bank’s lawyers offered to reinstate the mortgage for $8,390, including $7,171 to cover back payments — $3,000 more than the couple has or owes, Rooks said.
“In its latest assessment of the $700 billion financial system bailout, the Congressional Oversight Panel warns that banks still hold many risky loans of uncertain value. If unemployment rises sharply or the commercial real estate market collapses — as many economists fear — the banking system could again lose its footing, the panel says in a report to be released Tuesday.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Watchdog-says-bad-assets-apf-2147038643.html?x=0
Shadow Inventory?
From the APP:
NJ’s divorce rate declines in recession
The number of new divorce cases filed in New Jersey during the first six
months of the year fell 9 percent compared with the same period a year ago.
Family law experts say the 28,579 cases reflect economic uncertainty.
…
Officials say some Garden State couples are staying together until real
estate and stock portfolios rebound. Others are mediating their differences
outside of court to limit the cost of breaking up.
4 Signs Your Home Is About to Lose Value
Re 9,
Sign #5, Bi moves in next door.
Consumer bankruptcies: When it rains, it pours
Debt problems don’t stop with subprime borrowers. Celebrities who filed for bankruptcy in July included actor Stephen Baldwin, who sought protection from creditors after lenders began foreclosure procedures against his home. Lenny Dykstra filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a petition that says the former Phillies star owes between $10 million and $50 million.
Also last month, lawyer Marc Dreier’s luxury Manhattan condominium sold for $8.2 million, 21 percent less than what he paid two years ago, in an auction at U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Proceeds will be used to pay creditors in Dreier’s bankruptcy case and victims of Dreier’s fraud, said Salvatore LaMonica, trustee in the Chapter 7 bankruptcy case.
10#, my next door neighbor is a doctor couple. the husband is the cardilogist for MM. they don’t worry their home value as you do.
>Dissident HEHEHE says:
August 11, 2009 at 6:48 am
Re 9,
Sign #5, Bi moves in next door.
12 bi
10#, my next door neighbor is a doctor couple. the husband is the cardilogist for MM. they don’t worry their home value as you do.
How do you know that? Why don’t you ask him how much is malpractice insurance has gone up over the last couple of years? They may worry about their home value more.
Malpractice insurance is paid by the hospital if you are an employee.
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Co. expects its Volt electric car to earn a fuel-economy rating of at least 230 miles per gallon for city driving, more than four times that of Toyota Motor Corp.’s Prius hybrid, people familiar with the plans said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1CnFu6pgHFg
U.S. President Barack Obama aims to put a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015 as part of the new U.S. effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.
Cars are sexier than gas pumps or charging stations, but as the history of the oil industry shows, fuel is big business. A million electric cars will need a lot of power and a complex system to make sure the grid is not overwhelmed.
“Your head starts spinning when you think of what the possibilities and opportunities are but also the complexity,” said Bill Nicholson, who leads the electric vehicle initiative at Portland General Electric in Orego
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE57823020090809
14 Yo’me
An employee yes. But what about a doctor that has privileges at a hospital? Is that considered the same?
Lost no. you are right doctors that are called for consult usually have their own practice.
Back to wiping butts.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The value of U.S. homes fell by 12.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, but the rate of decline shrank for the first time since prices began to fall in 2007, real estate website Zillow.com said on Tuesday.
Even so, stabilization of the hard-hit housing market, which is seen as key to an economic recovery in the United States, is not yet in view, with mounting foreclosures and a high level of “underwater” mortgages still posing threats, Zillow said.
U.S. home values posted their 10th consecutive quarterly decline, falling to $186,500 on the Zillow Home Value Index, according to the second-quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Repor
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE57A0K720090811
Where is the bidding wars?
What is a cardilogist?
“What is a cardilogist?”
I think that’s what they call a highly skilled poker player.
Doctors don’t make that much money, my wife was looking to give away 0-24 month girl clothes, all brand names, all mint condition, some never worn more than once, all were washed and folder and labeled.
The only one in my neighborhood was interested was a very pretty lady who just had her second kid who is a girl and the first was a boy. Due to economy husband could not afford to buy all new girls clothes and keep up house on water, boat, two leased cars, dinners out and the country club. Husband told wife she needs to cut back on stuff if they are to afford new clothes.
The lady jumped at my wife’s offer and we gave her ten boxes of clothes which will take care of her new daughter next two years, she was very happy!!!! As husband can’t make her eat at taco bell and drive a used car.
My wife was very happy to help out and the fact she appreciated it was great.
bi says: When daughter reaches two she is interested in the next sizes. It really makes me feel good to give to charity.
By the Chifi, a cardilogist is someone who does card tricks in Vegas.
August 11, 2009 at 7:03 am
10#, my next door neighbor is a doctor couple. the husband is the cardilogist for MM. they don’t worry their home value as you do.
>Dissident HEHEHE says:
August 11, 2009 at 6:48 am
Re 9,
Sign #5, Bi moves in next door.
http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-081109-report.pdf
Here’s Elizabeth…..
Need a job?? Go to China.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/business/economy/11expats.html?_r=1&hpw
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aYYSuNwUXJAI
More Elizabeth..
“TARP Oversight Panel Says Smaller Banks May Need Fresh Capital”
anybody still hold srs? it was a “life-time opportunity” when it was around $120. it seems nobody here likes it when it is traded under $12.
26 – bi….You need to go take some classes in civility. In our culture, to continue to harp on a dead issue makes you a bit of an @sshole.
continued @25 –
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aYYSuNwUXJAI
“The Treasury told the panel it had no plans to extend a guarantee program for money market mutual funds that is scheduled to expire on September 18….”
Cindy,
“In our culture, to continue to harp on a dead issue makes you a bit of an @sshole.”
Let us not forget, he actually lost a bet that banned him from even discussing this particular ETF.
I respect bi about as much as I enjoy stepping in dog poo.
27#, cindy, i am talking about market. this is something facinating about market. people always chase something hot stuff. but when real opportunity presents, people are going away. i was called all the names here but you never ask these people take civility class
> 26 – bi….You need to go take some classes in civility. In our culture, to continue to harp on a dead issue makes you a bit of an @sshole.
30 – Bi…You are missing the point. Others have dropped the subject. For you to continue to bring it up is beating a dead horse. We are over and done with that experience – gone – kaput – over…
In polite society, it is like kicking a man when he is down and simply NOT DONE.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/civility
Bi, to be fair. You have been correct on several occasions (maybe your timing was off) but you were correct. You will garner no one’s respect by kicking sand in someone’s face. If you wish to be taken seriously, you have to stop being an @sshole.
bi – There is a death panel verdict awaiting you, please show up to to 26 Federal Plz, New York floor 12 room 2B for your results, and bring a clean change of underwear.
33#, 32#,
>In polite society, it is like kicking a man when he is down and simply NOT DONE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ao8sd0ZascRo
LA LA big city of dreams.
Bi – #34 – Point taken. I actually did not mean to offend you. I was trying to explain why your comments are taken with such derision. Remember, I am a school teacher and go overboard sometimes.
@35 very fitting for new century’s landlord. saw this a mile away…..
Liz Warren’s marginalization is almost complete. Pretty soon, they’ll be tossing her in the same closet they keep Volcker in.
The oversight panel guys could set themselves on fire, and nobody would notice or care. TPTB seem hell-bent on plunging us all into the abyss.
Cindy (36)-
Wasting your time. Just a silly troll.
Like Clot has been saying FHA is the new Subprime.
The Next Fannie Mae
Ginnie Mae and FHA are becoming $1 trillion subprime guarantors.
SNIP///
Herein lies the problem. The FHA’s standard insurance program today is notoriously lax. It backs low downpayment loans, to buyers who often have below-average to poor credit ratings, and with almost no oversight to protect against fraud. Sound familiar? This is called subprime lending—the same financial roulette that busted Fannie, Freddie and large mortgage houses like Countrywide Financial.
On June 18, HUD’s Inspector General issued a scathing report on the FHA’s lax insurance practices. It found that the FHA’s default rate has grown to 7%, which is about double the level considered safe and sound for lenders, and that 13% of these loans are delinquent by more than 30 days. The FHA’s reserve fund was found to have fallen in half, to 3% from 6.4% in 2007—meaning it now has a 33 to 1 leverage ratio, which is into Bear Stearns territory. The IG says the FHA may need a “Congressional appropriation intervention to make up the shortfall.”
The IG also fears that the recent “surge in FHA loans is likely to overtax the oversight resources of the FHA, making careful and comprehensive lender monitoring difficult.” And it warned that the growth in FHA mortgage volume could make the program “vulnerable to exploitation by fraud schemes . . . that undercut the integrity of the program.” The 19-page IG report includes a horror show of recent fraud cases.
//UNSNIP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204908604574334662183078806.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=142
Zillow stats from TBP
Grim #40 in mod re: FHA and Subprime
Clot was correct FHA is the new dumping ground for Subprime.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204908604574334662183078806.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Editorial: China matters, and the U.S. knows it
Buffett Loads Up on Debt Ahead of Inflation
Sean,
Without the FHA, there would be no housing stabilization at the low end. FHA is the new subprime, he’ll even worse, at least with subprime we knew it was a cesspool.
Hell not he’ll.
i’m not trying to offend anyone here. just taking about market. #3 i posted this morning actually is very interesting one on commercial real estate. for long term, maybe there are something behind we don’t know (reits was up 15% last week while s&p was up only 2%). but for short-term, he thinks it’s been overbought. this moring srs up 6% on top of yesterday’s gain.
Grim,
FHA IS THE MARKET! If you cut FHA off the real estate market would be in free fall and transactions would be only a fraction of their current volume.
There is no longer any significant pool of credit worthy borrows when compared to the volume of housing that the government and sellers want to move.
To borrow a term “Velocity of Money”, the velocity of real estate is only being kept up by FHA intentionally subsidizing unqualified borrowers.
The US tax payer IS NOW the bad bank.
warren is smart, he came to same conclusion I did, when investment grade bonds yield 10% or greater, which is average return on stock market, buy corporate bonds as your returns are the same, violitity is much lower, they can cut the dividend but not the bond payment and in the event of bankruptcy shareholders are wiped out and bondholders may end up with company. Foreign bonds are a hedge against US recession being much greater and the fact US bonds are yielding historically low rates. Warren may not even still be in this strategy as bond prices have greatly firmed and are no longer a bargian, I bet he is hunting the few remaining pref stock bargains.
to all:
in june, Grim posted a case shiller chart for northern NJ which indicated low tier (under $283K) was down 24.5 % from peak and mid tier($283K to $416K was down 22.42% from peak. Are people really seeing this in morris county, i.e., denville and parsippany?
bi – perhaps REITS are up in anticipation that Bernake is going to bail them out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRW1IJ7Un3s
video – 6 minutes..
“Housing Mess Is Not Over Yet” – Bloomberg
Interesting discussion of rents vs. purchase price
“anybody still hold srs? it was a “life-time opportunity” when it was around $120. it seems nobody here likes it when it is traded under $12.”
Bi you repeat yourself alot which can be very annoying and seem to have a thick skull at times but your post #26 today is a good question imo. Just hope you dont ruin it by arguing with everyone about petty nonsense.
I was an srs bagholder for months. I made lots of money on that stock and have since given it all back and then some. Not afraid to admit it my entire portfolio is down since dow 14,000, even though i made some smart moves.
But commercial RE is in worse condition than ever before. For me, i never thought it could go to 11 so now i realize that either i dont know anything about commercial real estate or iyr/srs are being severly manipulated because both of these etfs are totally dislocated from what is happening in reality accross the country.
If you look at the individual companies and their finances and their leases and retail sales, its all way worse than ever before and the outlook is dire. Nobody can argue with that. So why are the commercial reits all at 52 wk highs?
Maybe you can answer that but i cant and so i have no business investing in those etfs anymore, even if price of srs goes to 2, its stil not a buy for me. Not to mention that you cant just hold srs for the long term because the value erodes with each passing month.
I dont think others here would get so frustrated and insulted by you if you stopped chearleading the stocks daily up and down tics and instead offered some more long term analysis with substance behind what is moving the stock and why. just my two cents dude.
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) — The productivity of U.S. workers grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace in almost six years as employers squeezed more out of remaining staff to bolster profits.
Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for each hour worked, rose at an annual 6.4 percent pace, more than forecast, after a 0.3 percent gain the prior three months, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. Labor costs fell by the most in eight years.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aat.iwUe1RmQ
Whip them good.
FANNIE MAE 1.18 18.00 173100595
CITIGROUP INC 3.82 -3.05 151365047
FREDDIE MAC 1.78 5.33 102361817
CIT GROUP INC 1.12 -24.32 46907946
BANK OF AMERICA 16.731 0.31 38235140
Fannie Freddie UP?
“Inventories are declining as production was cut aggressively,” David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said before the report. The consistent drops in inventories and increases in sales, he said, are “encouraging for second-half production gains.”
Sales rose 0.4 percent for a second straight month.
Inventories at wholesalers were forecast to drop 0.9 percent after a previously reported 0.8 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from declines of 1.2 percent to 0.4 percent.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aR68_99V5amk
iron (48)-
Exactly.
“FHA IS THE MARKET! If you cut FHA off the real estate market would be in free fall and transactions would be only a fraction of their current volume.”
53#, veto, points taken, thanks. maybe i was too excited in last few days because i strongly felt the market was going to turn.
John (49)-
I’d think preferreds are a little risky for Buffett’s taste. Nothing like the prospect of getting crammed down or completely blown out to dull the appetite.
…unless, of course, the issuer of the preferred has created a special class of shares, just for you.
#15 – yo’me – General Motors Co. expects its Volt electric car to earn … at least 230 miles per gallon for city driving
Now, I know this is a tweaked figure. And I’m sure GM will screw the car up in innumerable other ways. However, it would be nice if they finally delivered a product as promised that wasn’t a complete embarrassment.
veto (53)-
You should be cheering those REITs higher. It will just serve as a more spectacular height from which they can start their death spiral.
“So why are the commercial reits all at 52 wk highs?”
GM announces perfection of cold fusion nuclear reactor technology.
re: #64 yup and their stock is rocketing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MTLQQ.PK
Can you buy GM right now? I see they trade but it looks like a pink slip.
Doctor’s in general, don’t make much money anymore. I bailed on Med School when I saw what was happening. My father is a physician. All his colleagues have watched their salaries erode the past 10 years. Anyone going to Med School now does nothing but watch the debt they accumulate through student loans skyrocket. They’ll graduate with an MD, and be forced into a system where they make less money each year, and pretty soon, no money after Obama gets through with them. Everyone likes to bring up Cardiologists when it comes to doctor’s salaries. It’s a bad example. The only reason they still make money is because Americans are, in general, fat.
Here, this math is easy.
2003 price. 2009 price. The same. Where do all the people who are not in the choir hang out? I want to preach to them.
Home facts for 563 Westfield Rd, Scotch Plains
Price History
Date Event Price Source 07/10/2009 Sold $330,000 Public record
12/19/2003 Sold $330,000 Public record
07/05/2001 Sold $274,900 Public record
veto, I don’t believe GM issued new stock yet. What’s funny is, since it went into bankruptcy, the stock is essentially worthless, by law. That didn’t stop people from trading it left and right these past few months.
Veto – MTLQQ.PK – Motors Liquidation Company represent the shares of the old General Motors Corp. before bankruptcy, and is not linked to the new General Motors.
The remaining assets of Motors Liquidation will go to creditors, bond holders, preferred and common shareholders.
Why anyone is trading this is really unknown to me.
oh, i guess you can buy it.
MTLQQ
sean I just bought 1,000 shares on that news yet have no idea what the heck it is.
I hope its the stock and not some preferred weird complicated garbage.
I see it has negative 56 eps. oh.
thats not good.
Cindy says:
August 11, 2009 at 9:03 am
26 – bi….You need to go take some classes in civility. In our culture, to continue to harp on a dead issue makes you a bit of an @sshole.
Post of the day!
When people talk about creating a bad bank, I don’t understand. Do they not realize that the Federal Reserve is the bank holding all the worthless garbage as collateral? Do they not realize that their central bank is the bad bank?
Hmm, weird. its liquid though. The bid ask spreads are tight. Looks like I can get out at any second.
Lets see if it moves. If not i will get out. Cold Fusion sounds cool enough to invest in for one day.
Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
August 11, 2009 at 10:49 am
iron (48)-
Exactly.“FHA IS THE MARKET! If you cut FHA off the real estate market would be in free fall and transactions would be only a fraction of their current volume.”
clot: I started reading my friend’s book…..really interesting…talks about the origins of the FHA
GM announces perfection of cold fusion nuclear reactor technology.
The cars would still be underpowered.
PSEG sucks I have been on hold for 29 minutes.
Bill Introduced To Ban Credit Default Swaps
Fixing foreclosures with a right to rent
One proposal making the rounds in D.C. is Right to Rent: a program, first floated two years ago by liberal think-tanker Dean Baker, that would allow folks who have lost their home to foreclosure to continue living in the home as a renter. As Baker sees it, giving the foreclosed the right to rent their home at a market rate for a long stretch (perhaps five to 10 years) is a win-win. The landlord (an investor or bank) gets market rental income, the homeowner isn’t uprooted, property values aren’t further depressed by foreclosure fire sales, and taxpayers aren’t asked to bail out lender or borrower. In mid-July a Treasury official confirmed the administration is mulling the idea. The House has supplied traction too, recently passing the Neighborhood Preservation Act, which would permit FDIC-insured banks to lease back homes to folks it has foreclosed on. Did you catch that artful spin? This isn’t solely about helping the foreclosed; it’s about protecting your neighboring home’s value.
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-gm-volt-goes-230-mpg-2009-8
“How Does The GM Volt Get Its 230 MPG Rating?”
OOOhhhh….40 miles on a full charge of the battery so many won’t even use gas in a day…
#79 – Cindy – Yup. The way they calculate it as long as you never go more than 40 miles it has unlimited mpg because you’re not using the gas engine.
80 – Tosh… But I’m paying for electricity to charge the thing right?
Why don’t they figure out a way of explaining THAT cost to us. That is what we need to know.
Yes, but you need to buy old GM Bonds as they will receive 10-20% of shares in the new GM IPO next year.
The Pink Sheets is a scam, only legimate purpose is to allow pre-bankruptcy GM share owners a mechanism to sell their worthless pieces of paper to acheive a tax loss.
August 11, 2009 at 11:05 am
Can you buy GM right now? I see they trade but it looks like a pink slip.
Re Chevy Volt
Ok, i havent seen a detailed tech spec, but lithium ion batteries generally do not like to be fully discharged. If a 40 miles range means you have significantly drained the batteries, then regularly driving the car on batteries only and deeply discharging the batteries, is likely to noticeably shorten the lifespan of the battery pack.
Wonder who pays for the replacement.
It will also be interesting to see how the public reacts the firs time a battery pack shorts out and cooks a car potentially with someone in it.
There are a number of ways that a battery pack of that high an energy density can dangerously discharge due to damage in an accident of faulty electronics.
No its not necessarily more dangerous then gas, just wondering if the public will suddenly run from the hybrids after a few cases get publicized.
keep in mind that GM may state the life of the battery pack based on optimal battery usage which is very different then stating max millage based on a full discharge of the battery. i believe the optimal charge for the prius’ battery pack is between about 50%-90% charge, i.e optimal battery life means not discharging the batteries more then about 40% of their capacity.
If the volts battery pack is similar then that means the volts optimal battery life is achieved by not driving more then about 16 miles on batteries on a regular basis.
#81 – Cindy – But I’m paying for electricity to charge the thing right?
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!
I imagine in some places the costs of generating the electricity could be super cheap and clean. Think the TVA or wind/solar farms.
Most other places will be using coal or oil to generate the power though. Hopefully it’s less polluting and more efficient (?), but really just transferring the source of the pollution to a centralized location.
Foreclosure Database app for iPhone
RealQuest Apple iPhone Application for Nation’s Largest Home Price and Foreclosure Database
http://www.iphonenewstracker.com/2009/08/11/realquest-apple-iphone-application-for-nations-largest-home-price-and-foreclosure-database/
kettle1:
You don’t think they’ll kick in the gas engine at 75%-80% to keep the battery lifespan longer? Those numbers (GMs numbers) are pure theory and no where near actual use.
I worked exclusively with the Toyota Prius for an autonomous car project we did awhile back and it did a similar thing. Their is A LOT of research done in the battery lifespan problem and using it accordingly is a great way stretch out the battery life.
CIndy,
I dug a little on the Volt for you:
The 40 mile range assume you fully discharge the battery pack. It is unclear at this point, but most electric cars will not let you do that in order to protect the lifespan of the battery pack and will usually start the gas engine somehow around A 60% discharge.
SO the likely real world range seen on the battery pack is likely to be in the ballpark of 20 -30 mile depending on driving style and driving conditions.
Now how much will it cost to charge the batteries? The batteries have a 16KWH capacity. In Cali the cost of electricity is about 14.5 cents/KWH. If we assume that charge efficiency is 70% (Wild A$$ Guess) then it would cost you about $3-$4 to fully charge the batteries.
To compare to gas, assume the 40 mile full discharge range, and that a comparable ICE Internal combustion engine) would get about 28 MPG, then the equivalent amount of gas at current Cali gas prices (about 2.75) would coat you about $4.00.
The electric charge is likely to be somewhat cheaper on a per mile basis.
But keep in mind that unless you hack the cars control system (was done for the prius and someone will likely do so for the volt) there is no way Chevy is going to allow people to regularly fully discharge the battery pack and hence you WILL NOT see a battery powered range of 40 miles. Such usage patterns would degrade the battery pack very quickly.
Justin 86
yes i agree with you. the 40 mile range is nothing but marketing BS based on hypotheticals that will not be seen in real world operation
Note that it doesnt happen often, but when a lithium Ion battery pack fails catastrophically it heats up at a rate of several hundred degrees per second!
It doesnt happen often, but when it does think about the chinese laptop battery problem, only about 25 times larger/more enery involved
This wont happen often, but put enough of these on the road and you will see this times 25 every so often
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeWq6rWzChw
You don’t charge the volt, it charges itself.
The Volt, which will be introduced late next year, is designed to run for 40 miles from a single charge of a lithium-ion battery pack. After the battery is partly depleted, a small engine will kick in to recharge the battery and power the vehicle.
Are you underwater on your mortgage?
South Florida a hot spot for ‘underwater’ borrowers
Economists react to gathering foreclosure wave
#90 – John – The Volt is a plug-in hybrid designed to be charged at a charging station or home when not in use. The gas engine is there to extend the range and CYA.
It plugs in to a regular outlet, wonder what trainstations are going to do with light posts where you can just hack into the power, just park next to lampost every day and ride for free.
toshiro_mifune says:
August 11, 2009 at 12:34 pm
#90 – John – The Volt is a plug-in hybrid designed to be charged at a charging station or home when not in use. The gas engine is there to extend the range and CYA.
toshiro_mifune/john:
If the Volt is like the Prius. It’ll charge the battery while the engine is in use. It’ll also charge the batter when the wheels are rotating. There are a lot of opportunities to charge the battery without plugging it in but that has yet to be released. You will probably still need to plug it in but not all electricity needed will come from a charge station.
Some other interesting ways to get “free” electricity are using solar power and wind power (when the car is moving).
Stocks: The latest Fed bubble
Are the government programs supporting the financial sector reinflating global stock markets even as economies stumble?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/11/news/economy/bubbly.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009081112
NEW YORK (Fortune) — The Federal Reserve has spent the past year cleaning up after a housing bubble it helped create. But along the way it may have pumped up another bubble, this time in stocks.
To head off the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the central bank has slashed interest rates while funneling money to banks.
The Fed has mostly won praise for its efforts. The pace of job losses has slowed, and there has been a modest recovery in output.
At the same time, stocks have bounced back with startling speed. Since global markets hit their bottom in March, the S&P 500 has jumped 51% — even as the outlook for economic recovery remains dim.
Here’s the 2010 salary-hike outlook, according to the survey:
Salaried exempt workers, 2.7%
Executives, 2.6%
Salaried nonexempt, 2.6%
Non-union hourly, 2.7%
Union, 2.7%
Bob Prechter “Quite Sure” Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break
In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said “cover your shorts,” and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.
With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should “step aside” from long positions, and speculators should “start looking at the short side.”
“The big question is whether the rally is over,” Prechter says, suggesting “countertrend moves can be tricky” to predict. But the veteran market watcher is “quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we’ve already experienced,” and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.
Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market’s main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.
The 2000 market peak market a “major trend change” for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. “The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s [and] mid-2000s are for the history books – they’re very large,” he says. “The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/299205/Bob-Prechter-%22Quite-Sure%22-Next-Wave-Down-Will-Be-Bigger-and-March-Lows-Will-Break?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,%5ERUT,BGZ&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Justin 96
recharging the batteries with wind power while driving is a net power loss unless you have found a way to violate the know laws of thermodynamics
Inflation Not a Problem, “Deflationary Depression” in Our Future, Prechter Says
In July, Ben Bernanke told a town hall meeting, “I was not going to be the Federal Reserve chairman who presided over the second Great Depression.” According to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman in that regard he’s succeeded. Bernanke’s rescue of the financial sector in tandem with the Obama Administration’s stimulus plan prevented a “full replay” of the Great Depression, the Nobel Prize-winning economist writes.
But like President Bush declaring “Mission Accomplished” in 2003, Elliott Wave International founder, Bob Prechter thinks Krugman and Bernanke are premature in declaring victory over the credit crunch. Prechter, who famously predicted the 1987 stock market crash, tells Tech Ticker “the march towards depression, which is being fueled by deflationary trend, is pretty well intact.”
So forget all you’ve heard about recovery and inflation, “we’ve only seen the first phase,” of the downturn according to Prechter. Next to come, is “a credit implosion” that will once again destroy the value of stocks, commodities and especially real estate. “The biggest area of overvaluation because of credit extension is the real estate area,” he says. “And if you’ll notice that’s the area that’s had the weakest of any kind of attempt at a recovery.”
When this next phase of “deflationary depression” happens the only investment advice he can give is: safety first. “Make sure as an individual you’re in the safest possible investments so you can ride this out.” And as discussed in a previous segment, that means investing in dollars or dollar equivalent assets.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298981/Inflation-Not-a-Problem-%22Deflationary-Depression%22-in-Our-Future-Prechter-Says?tickers=skf,sds,sso,dxd,ddm,iyr,srs&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Veto, I would not buy SRS, your timing has to be almost perfect to make any money out of that one. If you want to short commercial real estate, I’d pick the individual REITS like spg, vno, bxp, slg and lry to name a few. SRS is a real portfolio killer.
Kettle:
Not necessary, when the fan used to generate power is also needed to perform an additional job, like an engine cooling fan with gas motors. You won’t want to introduce new ‘drags’ to the car but grab the energy created when one is already needed.
Veto
I took a lot of heat for suggesting a deflationary depression….. In late 2007. Apparently it’s not such a radical idea anymore
Justin 103:
Like this?
http://tinyurl.com/kettlecar
I am looking to get in touch with Clotpol. Apart from sending an email to Grim is there any other way it can be done?
HN
Justin
maybe at a gtg we can do an energy balance. But in short, any device that extracts kinetic energy from the airstream generated by a moving vehicle is ultimatly increasing drag and acting as a parasitic load.
Any exception to this allows you to decrease entropy for free. Figure out a way around that and you will get yourself a Nobel prize
Kettle1:
I am no Physicist and only have a passing knowledge of this subject. I am a computer science researcher and had to steal power from a running Prius :-)
Kettle,
All you have to do to become famous these days is say something as negative as possible about the economy and keep repeating it.
And make sure to reminding people how you called the 87 crash and tech bust too because thats instant credibility.
BRIC and Technology and the absence of our manufacturing has rendered all previous economic situations meaningless. We cant even narrow down if we are facing inflation or deflation. We are in totally uncharted waters and all of these economists put together cant tell us anything. They simply dont know.
“We are in totally uncharted waters and all of these economists put together cant tell us anything.”
But Bi can!
Deflation? Has anyone’s cost of living truly gone down since the peak of the housing bubble?
#111 – Has anyone’s cost of living truly gone down since the peak of the housing bubble?
In terms of commodities (food and fuel)… no not really.
In terms of luxury items, the sales have been incredible!
Has anyone’s cost of living truly gone down since the peak of the housing bubble?
Ben,
House prices down 25-50%
Rents have come down some.
Oil and Gas prices crashed (but recently up again)
Vacations and clothing prices have gone down in price ive noticed.
Lobster… dirt cheap now.
Flat panel TVs and Computers and other electronics have come down in price.
GM and Chrysler and Saturn cars… Practically giving them away.
Also my ira deflated a bit i noticed.
In real estate related news, Stu and I are going to torture a FSBO this weekend. The sellers seem to be particularly not suited to FSBO. The person I spoke to was not very informative or engaged and have done little but place a craigslist ad with one photo and minimal information about the house.
Ben (72)-
Silly you. Don’t you understand that Maiden Lane, deposit bottles, handwritten IOUs, recapped tires and assorted flotsam and jetsam are valuable collateral, all rated AAA by venerable institutions such as Fitch and Moody’s?
“Do they not realize that the Federal Reserve is the bank holding all the worthless garbage as collateral?”
FSBO…I will have the man screaming for a realtor in about 5 minutes. The initial price he quoted us sounds about 20% too high at the bare minimum.
Seller, meet reality.
Reality, meet the seller.
SG (78)-
These goddamned banks can’t do banking right…so how good are they going to be at landlording?
This is a total ruse, and a bailout for banks, who will hold these houses as overvalued “assets”.
Any suggestions on a new laptop?
I can see it now 10 years from now every night a few million tree huggers get home from work at 6PM and plug in their Government Motors Volt electric car and simultaneously a 125 just built nuclear plants fire us reactors three four and five to deal with the gigawats of power demand.
There is going to be allot of plutonium buried in your backyard if this electric car plan go through.
Stu,
You need for 6-8 of us to go see the property over several days making such negative comments that by the time you make an offer you seem like a Godsend.
Shore Guy:
That is the oldest trick in the book, but it might work with this dimwit of a FSBO seller. I could even pay all of you to stop by based on a percentage of how much it will save me. Realistically though, I don’t think this dude is going to sell the place. On the surface, he appears to be one of those, I’m too cheap to use the MLS types.
Next GTG at FSBO in Glen Ridge!
Justin 103:
Like this?
http://tinyurl.com/kettlecar
Needs more fin!
http://s3.amazonaws.com/thrivesmart/pictures/18/pimped-red-car-huge-spoiler.original.jpg
FSBO = meh, maybe we’ll sell, maybe we won’t.
You won’t be able to put the fear of God into a FSBO because they are market atheists.
Barbara – I think these folks will sell. House has been sitting vacant for a long while. We have some inside info, because we have friends who live across the street.
The house was purchased in 2004. It was bought by a recent divorcee from FL. She
and her father did some work on the house. She moved in and then immediately moved out (reconciled with
husband). The father held onto the house for some shady financial
reason. But it has been empty since 2005 and they’ve been paying Glen Ridge taxes on it. Dad is now 84 and his son is trying to help him sell the place.
“his son is trying to help him sell the place.”
And there lies the itch!
Why wouldn’t pops call up a local realtor and be done with it?
Veto:
House prices down 25-50%
Yes, but those were artificially high. Anyone who had a sub prime loan is probably paying more in rent than their initial payment now that they lost their home. A subprime borrower’s cost of living temporarily went down when they bought these homes.
Rents have come down some.
Nothing significant. Rents would be expected to crash and burn given the amount of houses we added on the market the past 10 years. They haven’t done that.
Oil and Gas prices crashed (but recently up again)”
They didn’t crash. Oil is 25% higher than it was when the housing bubble started to collapse. Prices should not rise 25% during the coarse of a deflationary collapse.
Vacations and clothing prices have gone down in price ive noticed.
Clothing? I don’t see it. I do see cotton prices spiking soon though.
Lobster… dirt cheap now.
Flat panel TVs and Computers and other electronics have come down in price.
Electronics always come down in price and will continue to do so for eternity.
GM and Chrysler and Saturn cars… Practically giving them away.
That’s what liquidation does. Unless GM has a 10 year supply of inventory, this is a temporary distortion in the real cost of cars.
Veto, a lot of the things you referenced are luxury items where demand fell off. Of course less people are taking vacations and eating lobsters. They are still eating though…and the cost food in general is way up. Think of it this way, Sushi prices can collapse while the cost of rice can go up 500%. That’s not deflation.
Oil and food are still more expensive than they were. Health insurance? Up. Car insurance? Up. College tuition? Waaaay up. Bus/Train/Tolls tickets? Up. Gas/Electric bill? Up. The cost of living, in general, is increasing, not decreasing.
Deflation is not even in the cards as far as I am concerned. The cost of living can continually increase while the price of a home decreases. The only things that never went up in price were industries that we outsourced to China/India/Mexico.
vodka (104)-
You and I have been riding the deflationary depression train from the get-go.
I’d love to see Prechter’s thoughts on mass civil unrest, too.
123.
thats all well and good until you find out how much money has been taken out of it since then and how behind they are on taxes. People are still listing at 15% above 2004-05 listing in Montclair when I look on Zillow. The fact that they dont want to pay commissions is a tip off
I question why someone who barely uses a house would wait until well into the housing correction to sell and then try to do it FSBO? This screams of unmotivated seller to me. Doesn’t hurt to try, but we’ll report back on how willing this dude is to budge on price.
Yes clot, it’s just you and I in our little
deflationary hovel. I do enjoy the warmth of the burn barrel though ;)
Stu (124)-
Fortunately for you, he’s pursuing this course of action because he’s probably an idiot. Find out the hows and whys of his brain malfunction, and exploit the hell out of it.
All the best deals I’ve ever purchased were from FSBOs. Dopes still don’t know what hit them.
Clot,
“Find out the hows and whys of his brain malfunction, and exploit the hell out of it.”
That is the plan. But if he won’t budge, he won’t budge. We’ve all seen many of these characters. You can show them the yellow brick road, but they still choose to stroll through the poppy field. Come to think of it, I probably would stop in the poppy field as well.
Hard to figure out why they have any taste for holding a vacant house in a high-tax town.
Ben,
The reasons are meaningless. When demand collapses prices drop. It doesnt matter if its the result of a bankruptcy liquidation or a fire. Thats deflation.
granted the prices of some things have risen since the peak..
Another one… Labor and materials. Now is a great time to build an addition or hire an illegal immigrant for the day to do your landscaping compared to 4 years ago. half price. thats deflation.
Also, Gator says starbucks fills your coffee for $2 after 2pm since recession started. How can you argue with that? Full on deflationary spiral right there.
Barbara – Dad is 84. I’m guessing they need to unload before the future nursing home takes the whole thing.
It will probably be a fruitless waste of time, but it is in the neighborhood where many of our good friends live, so it is worth killing an afternoon to see if it has any potential.
Stu 124 – Probably because of greedy kids. The kids always want to extract out the maximum amount of inheritance.
“The kids always want to extract out the maximum amount of inheritance.”
So true, too bad my folks had seven kids. As cheap as my folks are, they will probably live to be 100 in spite.
When are we going to the beach?
NJ RE Report Beach Blanket Bingo.
:)
Stu 137 – Don’t you remember that your dad did offer you the chance to inherit his palace in Apopka, FL? He actually offered it up to all of his kids. Unfortunately no one wanted anything to do with it, so he was going to reverse mortgage it.
That’s true. We should zillow it to see what it is worth today.
The housing market has been falling since 2005. The recession is about 20 months old now. Where are the collapsing prices? Unemployment is at 10%. The world is in a recession. Oil is at $70 a barrel right now! It was at $50 during the peak when no one was in a recession. Commodities? They are all up since the peak of the bubble. The price of coffee is up. The fact that Starbucks lowered their price doesn’t mean coffee got cheaper. It just means they are no longer trying to sell a cup for $4 over market value.
The oil price spike was the worst thing that could have ever happened. It somehow convinced everyone that the price of oil is falling.
The cost of living has not gone down for the average American family.
Kettle – 87
Sorry I’m slow in getting back to you. I have started working in my room a bit. Thank you so much for investigating the Volt info for me. We shall see.
Lady at work is getting a volt so she can yell at Prius drives STOP KILLING THE PLANET!!!!!!
Stu and Gator,
without getting too specific on the internets, in what section of Planet Clair do you reside? I only understand Montclair in terms of south of Bloomfield, west of Elm, Clairmont Street area, Near WOHO (kill me, I hate the realtor term), Upper Montclair.
Have you seen Jets ticket prices? I sold my first one for a profit in June but by July I was unloading at cost and by August below face. The only thing that is of value was my parking permit. Giant tickets are fell like a brick, mets tickets are going for half price and even yankee tickets are a little below face. Last year people were buying at full price and scalping for a good 10-50% above face.
This site was right don’t scalp Jets tickets, I am just lucky I locked and loaded all my extras. However, the nut who bought my pair for the Jets/Pats game for $700 is choking when he looks at todays prices on Stubhub, Deflation is at hyperspeed for jets/mets ticket prices.
Ben says:
August 11, 2009 at 3:09 pm
The housing market has been falling since 2005. The recession is about 20 months old now. Where are the collapsing prices? Unemployment is at 10%. The world is in a recession. Oil is at $70 a barrel right now! It was at $50 during the peak when no one was in a recession. Commodities? They are all up since the peak of the bubble. The price of coffee is up. The fact that Starbucks lowered their price doesn’t mean coffee got cheaper. It just means they are no longer trying to sell a cup for $4 over market value.
The oil price spike was the worst thing that could have ever happened. It somehow convinced everyone that the price of oil is falling.
The cost of living has not gone down for the average American family
Just a hair west and north of the corner of Walnut and Grove Street. Near Marzullo’s and the Walnut Street NJT station.
You can always mix some green antifreeze into their lime italian ices and yell your better eat quick it is melting.
Stu says:
August 11, 2009 at 2:47 pm
“The kids always want to extract out the maximum amount of inheritance.”
So true, too bad my folks had seven kids. As cheap as my folks are, they will probably live to be 100 in spite
Beach? Dis someone say beach?
It was lovely at 6:00 this morning, with sand pipers everywhere, terns too.
After a few experimental Pain Killers (we are still working on the mix), the porch swing is the place to be, watching the gulls overhead and feeling the wind off the ocean.
Shore
Stop rubbing it in. :)
#118 – kettle1 – Any suggestions on a new laptop?
I’m very partial to super cheap Dell Studios. I have one with the 17 inch screen and it’s been great for the amount I paid for it. Caveats are; the screen is a bit dim when not viewing straight on, you’ll need to kill the pre-installed software to keep it from bothering you, it’s made of cheap plastics – they’re durable but cheap feeling.
I should also say this is not a primary machine for me, it’s main function is as a portable media center/TPB/Hulu access point.
look at the property taxes on this bad boy.
sheesh.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33-Waterbury-Rd-Montclair-NJ-07043/38686393_zpid/
149: Dam*, you’re making me miss the Gulf (but for the foreclosure, vacancy and closed signs). Thanks.
black-granite-must-be-stopped
they ruined this house
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/378-Park-St-Montclair-NJ-07043/38684503_zpid/
Dang; 155 moderated.
#154 – IDK, the kitchen is a bit boring but otherwise I like the house.
I think the bathroom looks great.
the bath is too tony montana imo. more 80s, less victorian. they needed subway tiles and a mosaic floor.
John et al,
Whats the downside of owning bond etf compared to owning a bunch of bonds individually?
How do they treat the coupon pmts? Do they pay in a cash dividend or just add into the fund and increase the price of the ETF?
thanks, Im considering more LQD TIP and BWX
I would be more concerned about the overall structure — crappy windows — etc.
#157 – Ah, I see. You want a more traditional approach rather than a ‘Victorian as interpreted by’ deal. Fair enough.
#157 – Ah, I see. You want a more traditional approach rather than a ‘Victorian as interpreted by’ deal. Fair enough.
I’d call the kitchen contemporary, most of the interior is something between Arts & Crafts and Colonial. The bath? Well, the new Kohler fixtures are marketed as “Victorian”, so I suppose.
True-to-spirit Victorians are about as hard a sell as mid-century contemporaries. Just too much color, crap, pattern, gingerbread, tassel, velvet, etc. They are all very pretty, but most folks don’t care to live in a doll house. Really only a handful of markets state-wide where you could pull something like that off, since folks are expecting it (think Cape May, for example).
159 Essex
how can you tell if the windows are crappy?
grim, I totally agree but craftmans and victorians were built (overlapped) at the same time and there is a lot of crossover in finishes. IMO baths and kitchens in a victorian style are very palpable, classic but the rest of it, yeah pretty ugh. That’s where you throw in the craftman finishes throughout the rest.
I just hate it when they rip out walls for “opened concept” in older homes. Looks like ass.
Seacliff Long Island it is hard to sell a home that is not a true victorian. I love the colors and widows peaks in Seacliff.
grim says:
August 11, 2009 at 4:21 pm
#157 – Ah, I see. You want a more traditional approach rather than a ‘Victorian as interpreted by’ deal. Fair enough.
I’d call the kitchen contemporary, most of the interior is something between Arts & Crafts and Colonial. The bath? Well, the new Kohler fixtures are marketed as “Victorian”, so I suppose.
True-to-spirit Victorians are about as hard a sell as mid-century contemporaries. Just too much color, crap, pattern, gingerbread, tassel, velvet, etc. They are all very pretty, but most folks don’t care to live in a doll house. Really only a handful of markets state-wide where you could pull something like that off, since folks are expecting it (think Cape May, for example).
I thought craftsman house were just ordered from sears catalog.
grim,
adding…if you ever come by a custom mid century with original finishes (custom, not a tract house) email me. Please.
John,
They were.
#161 – True-to-spirit Victorians are about as hard a sell as mid-century contemporaries
I love mid century modern. Are they really hard to sell?
Tosh (151) –
What do you use to keep your TPB activities hidden from Big Brother?
Sears sold the classic 4 squares in a few varieties. You can see many of the best out in PA, around Lancaster. They are beautiful
re: #155 – Barb – I think the two toned baby blue siding ruined the place.
#118 Kettle,
Just bought an Acer netbook with 10.1 inch screen. The cost was under $300. It lacks a CD drive but who cares these days. The thing is so lightweight and portbable. Love it. Just upgrade to 2GB RAM.
Any recommendations on good suits,
Emanuel Ungaro 3 Button Navy Wool Suit
I thought craftsman house were just ordered from sears catalog.
There is a Sears Four-Square down in LBI that I just love. I’d take a Sears catalog home as long as it was still original.
SG
For the same price range, Club Monaco suits are nice. They are slimish in cut
162. Figure that anything less than gas permeated double paned glass is going to let in lots of noise and be inefficient.
I know a couple of folks with those massive Montclair homes and often if you look at the overall condition of the place they need lots of work.
grim,
the grandest four squares out in PA are so nice and cheap. But, you know, you’d have to live in PA.
Grim…we share the same taste brother.
I have a boatload of old wakefield stuff in my fifties home. Raised ranch.
On a separate note the guy behind me is doing a monstrous $300k rear addition….he and his wife and kid are going to be that much closer to us….*grrrrrrrr*
I’m all for victorian architecture, but the interiors need to be simplified as I find victorian furniture and interior design to be nauseating. Even in Cape May you’ll find the trend in rehabs is not victorian interiors, it is more of a retro modern look, almost nobody is looking for true to form victorian interiors. As for ripping out walls, I see that as largely unnecessary in good home because the rooms tend to flow well, in some homes the rooms are small and chopped up and it is necessary but those home are largely of lower quality in all aspects.
I love mid century modern. Are they really hard to sell?
Yep, especially if they are original.
Most folks immediately think “Brady Bunch”, and turn tail. Many others think most of these just need to be gutted.
The vast majority of these have been turned into terribly unpalatable Contemporonials. Very few have been modernized in a way that was true to the original styling.
176 Essex
I take a different view. Some were neglected and need obvious work but replacement windows? No. Unless they are broken you live with them and restore them if you want. The house has stood for 150 years. Drafts and character are part of the lifestyle. If you want an energy efficient drywall box, move to Edison.
The other issue with the victorians is tiny closets and small rooms. I don’t know why. Perhaps the old timey folks owned just one suit of clothes and slept in single beds.
Barbara….take for example the construction going on behind me….or a bad thunder storm. If it was not for my replacement windows I would hear that stuff like it was going on beside me.
No thanks.
Besides, just because people rode in horse and buggy doesn’t mean I want to.
The other thing is that I like to play guitar….really loud.
I try to be a good neighbor and keep those windows shut! Keeps the peace.
181. Final note….I passed on a bidding war in 2002 over a really sharp Stucco place in Verona. Had a roof deck! Also the old style tall ceilings and rounded entries. NO AIR COND. That was a deal killer. With the plaster walls it would have been a bitch to retro fit. Someone paid waaaay over ask for that one.
#169 – Not much. I don’t seed and don’t allow browsing of my library, I also kill the torrent as soon as it’s done. That’s it. I also don’t download any music, only movies/tv (odd, I know) and usually BBC stuff.
TPB has an encrypted network if you’re interested as do most of the private torrent networks. I haven’t even tried to join on really.
I’m betting there is no way I’m even noticeable compared to the average college student.
did someone say contemporary? i can’t decide if i love or hate this house. although i’m a sucker for a well designed contemporary house.
http://www.postlets.com/res/2476211
i don’t understand the indoor greenhouse room though…
I’ve got double-pane replacement windows along with storms. Hassle when you want to open or close a window, but does wonders for energy efficiency.
Here is a good example of a nice mid-century contemp that is largely unmolested:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/796-Valley-Rd-Clifton-NJ-07013/2138250056_zpid/
Essex, the answer to that is space pak or unico, high velocity airconditioning. Problem is cost avg. home 4000 sqft is probably 30k.
187.
secondary
i like a custom build but thats a redone tract home (i grew up in cherryhill and the money just wasnt there for great homes). however, they finished in nicely, black granite aside. my biggest beef with tract houses is the overemphasis of the garage in the designs.
jcer,
Mini-split where possible and just sweat where not.
#190 – That is just awesome.
my biggest beef with tract houses is the overemphasis of the garage in the designs.
Disgusted by homes whose main focal point isn’t a welcoming entrance way, but a set of oversized garage doors. I’ve seen a number of McMansion designs that resembled a pig head when viewed from the street, with the protruding garage as the snout.. Aptly so.
Barbara – re 33 Waterbury, the 2009 taxes are actually $18,375.98 based on our estimated tax rate of 2.38. Zillow is actually underestimating them.
#190 – They even have Barcelona chairs!
190
great house. i like it so much i’m not totally scandalized by the price!
196.
njgator
wow. just wow
barbara,
yes! i’ve been looking in the woodcrest area and despite the brady bunch style architecture grim mentioned (that i can deal with) the massive garage features kill it for me. i’m not gear head that would ever require a total man cave work station so garage space outside of parking is a useless feature for me.
Barbara,
You need to keep in mind that the current owner was a doctor who also used the home as his professional space. I believe the lower level is set up as a doctor’s office. At that price, the home would need to be marketed to a professional seeking a live/work situation. There is adequate parking, and it is in an easy to find location.
grim 120
its a beauty. Funny how so many mid cent mod houses were drs offices too.
Although it is still overpriced. It might have commanded that price had Hovnanian not clear cut the mountain the home used to back to and turn it into a megadevelopment.
The property now stands as the last treed outpost in the area.
Give the satellite view a couple of clicks outward and you’ll see what I mean.
Give the satellite view a couple of clicks outward and you’ll see what I mean.
It looks like someone detonated a bomb filled with gauche.
Actually, I give Hovnanian too much credit. It was Tilcon who really detonated the bomb by grinding down the mountain after which Clifton (read: Cliff town) was named and leaving a giant hole in which Hovnanian could place their homes.
grim,
on south jersey roads you will see the hug victorian farm house and behind it, about 20 acres of Hovnanian sprawl, ass far as the eye can see. Cue Prentenders “MY City Was Gone” here
hug =huge
ass = as. I’m holding a 5 month old :P
leaving a giant hole in which Hovnanian could place their homes.
From the google map it looks like they’re condos or apartments.
Sears house p*rn for you all…
http://www.searsarchives.com/homes/byimage.htm
Beach Blanket Bingo at Shore’s place!
Shore, where you at?
Clot will bring his bikini :)
190. Yes! Very European looking place. You just want to put some very nice jazz or classical on the stereo, sit back and have a cocktail whilst reading about the overall demise of Western Civilization.
Most people cannot fathom a place like that though. They are looking for the two story foyer and the three car garage with the bonus room where dad can hang his stuffed trout.
212. In Mod….”trout” must be verboten.
Sears house p*rn for you all…
Irony in it all is that we’re finally reinventing 100 year old construction methods. Prefab, prebuilt trusses, precut framing, factory built home systems, etc.
Essex, #182
The style years ago was to have just one big closet that was its own separate room.
Maybe the houses you’re talking about converted a walk-in closet into a room, while adding small closets in rooms that didn’t have them originally? … therefore, the rooms are smaller than they should be?
Breaking! Corruption at the ports! Shocked! Gambling! Bad Casablanca Reference!
Check out some of the prefab stuff in DWELL. Most rival anything you can buy from the boneheads in construction business.
Rooms and space create a ‘reality’ and a consciousness if you will. If you want to pretend it is 1890 then OK…I prefer the jet age!
HN308 says:
August 11, 2009 at 1:11 pm
I am looking to get in touch with Clotpol. Apart from sending an email to Grim is there any other way it can be done?
HN
offer up a bottle of knob creek and say pol clot three times in front of the mirror.
He will show, whether you like it or not
Hurry Corzine…..you need to appear tough on crime!!! The fat dude will eat your lunch.
It don’t get better than this..
From Bloomberg:
Benmosche Said to Start AIG Tenure With Croatian Trip
Robert Benmosche, the chief executive officer of American International Group Inc., plans to spend part of his first month leading the insurer in Croatia on vacation, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Benmosche, 65, who started yesterday as CEO and president of the bailed-out company, will leave for about two weeks, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified because the plans were private. Mark Herr, an AIG spokesman, said the New York-based firm wouldn’t comment on CEO travel.
“It’s probably not a propitious time for an incoming CEO to begin with a vacation,” said Steven Seiden, president of New York-based executive recruitment firm Seiden Krieger Associates. Seiden said that while the absence won’t hurt the company’s financial position, “from a public relations standpoint it’s probably not the wisest thing to do.”
Benmosche, named last week as AIG’s fifth CEO since 2005, has to retain customers and employees to preserve the value of operations that will be sold to repay loans included in AIG’s $182.5 billion U.S. rescue. The insurer posted its first quarterly profit last week after more than $100 billion in net losses in the six prior periods, and said that subsidiaries “remain challenged.”
From the WSJ:
Bankruptcy Filing Near for Taylor Bean
A bankruptcy filing is “imminent” for Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp., lawyers representing the mortgage lender said in a federal court filing last week.
The motion, submitted in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia, was filed on Aug. 6, one day after the privately owned Ocala, Fla., company ceased its lending operation and dismissed most of its work force.
Meanwhile, an internal email at Taylor Bean dated Monday, Aug. 10, referred to a new computer folder “to assemble all of our bankruptcy detailed spreadsheets and support.”
Taylor Bean shut down its lending operation on Aug. 5, the day after the Federal Housing Administration suspended the bank from submitting loans to the government for backing. Ginnie Mae, a federal agency that guarantees payments on mortgage securities backed by FHA loans, took away Taylor Bean’s rights to service those loans. Taylor Bean relied heavily on income from servicing FHA loans, which involves collecting payments from borrowers and handling other administrative tasks.
Taylor Bean was the 3rd largest FHA lender in the US.
grim (195)-
Garage mahals.
grim (222)-
This is just the beginning of the FHA tsunami. It is a spring-loaded, hair-trigger plutonium bomb of wrong.
#223 – Garage mahals.
I love that phrase.
We are just a 20 minute walk from NJC. If you drive by right now, we will be the ones noshing on the porch with the glazed-over looks in our eyes from testing the Pain Killer formula. Chemistry classes were never this much fun.
Shore (226)-
I don’t think you will have perfected that formula until you add grain alcohol and/or codeine cough syrup.
Perseids tonight! Hope the clouds/rain hold out.
(118) Kettle1:
I too am a big fan of the cheapo Dells but you must not buy an Inspiron. Go one small step up to the Studio and you will not be disappointed. I’ll let you in on a great secret for getting one cheap. In Dell’s Outlet online, they have a bunch of refurbs and once in a while a custom ordered and prebuilt machine that has never shipped shows up. There are incredible deals here on brand new machines. About once a month, dealnews dot com publishes a discount code that will get you an additional 10 to 20% off of one of these machines. About 6 months ago, I purchased a Studio w/ backlit keyboard, 4 gigs of ram, an Intel Core duo fast processor and the full MS Office suite installed, plus the 6 hour battery for a little under $900. Of course it has all of the bells and whistles of the Studio line as well. The key is, watching for the extra discount and then nailing the computer you like at dell outlet. They disappear within hours of Dell posting them so you must look frequently for one that fits your needs. Boo Inspiron!!!
If you are really cheap, just buy a new Acer every two years as that is about as long as they last and you can stay powerful. Kind of like leasing an Audi.
Just another day of parking problems at the shore …Red Bank…http://www.flickr.com/groups/redbankferrariday2009/
Speaking of Red Bank, sort of. Does anyone have experience with the RB Vet Hospital? Have only heard great things but something came up today when I went (ruggles’ brother has a highly treatable cancer) that made me–not question them–but wonder if I should give Clifton or Chalfont (doylestown) a try – those are the other vet radiation places I know of.
anyway, any comments much appreciated (or any comments on clifton or chalfont too). thanks.
Soured loans on South Florida condos sinking Corus Bankshares
Heavy with $182 million in construction loans, the long-awaited Trump International Hotel and Tower, a luxury hotel condominium in Fort Lauderdale beach, stands furnished, but empty, with not a single tenant inside.
One of 34 South Florida projects financed by Corus Bankshares, a lender based in Chicago, the 24-story, 298-unit oceanfront hotel condo had deposits on 70 percent of its units, but after the bust of the real estate market, the buyers either walked away or filed lawsuits against the building that has yet to open.
Close to foreclosure, the structure is part of Corus Bank’s deeply troubled loan portfolio, which as of May 31 includes 14 outstanding condo loans in South Florida, of which 12 are over 90 days past due. At almost $1 billion, these South Florida construction loans form half of the $2 billion nonperforming loans across the United States that led Corus to warn last month that it may fail.
231 Ruggles
My vet always refers out to Red Bank and Tinton Falls. I never heard a bad thing about either practice. I’ve had good experience with Tinton Falls.
Good luck.
stan says:
August 11, 2009 at 5:32 pm
HN308 says:
August 11, 2009 at 1:11 pm
I am looking to get in touch with Clotpol. Apart from sending an email to Grim is there any other way it can be done?
HN
click on his name…it will take you to his web page…..
veto that says:
August 11, 2009 at 4:14 pm
John et al,Whats the downside of owning bond etf compared to owning a bunch of bonds individually? How do they treat the coupon pmts? Do they pay in a cash dividend or just add into the fund and increase the price of the ETF?thanks, Im considering more LQD TIP and BWX
veets: You get monthly payments. No reinvestment allowed with ETFs. If you don’t own individual bonds, then you cannot be assured of return of face principal (barring a default/bankruptcy).
Example:
Buy a 2 year bond at 115.00 (115% of face). In 2 years you will receive 4 coupons and 100.00.
Buy an ETF constructed of a series of bonds of a similar type to above with an average duration of 2 years….you have no clue the final result….although these are bonds not stocks, so the value shouldn’t bounce all over the place.
Shore, #226
Huh?
What is NJC?
“What is NJC?”
What is NJC? What is NJC?!
Who. Who!
The mixmistress of the NJ Shore.
Shore,
Again … huh?
:)
Just back from a nice long weekend in D.C. Very hot, but very fun.
Personally I don’t think the Volt will ever make it off a production line. I think GM will just license the Prius Synery Drive train and rebadge.
chi, good point. The promised return of par at maturity is a huge benefit you give up by using etfs. On the otherhand you get the instant diversity with the etf. hmmm. I’ll have to think about this further.
thanks bud…
Some things cost more…
The crappy croissant I get from the coffee cart on my midtown office corner went up to $1.25 from $1.00 one year ago.
On the other hand, some things cost less…
47 Parkview Terrace in Summit
sold March07 for 1,045,000
sold August09 for 949,000
142 Maple in Summit
sold September06 for 790,000
sold August09 for 747,500
79 Spruce in Cranford
sold April05 for 494,500
sold August09 for 450,000
If you want to “feel” the big price drops off peak, you can’t look in the better train towns, e.g. Clark has some nice price pullbacks. If you are buying right now in upper haughtyville, you are not gonna feel like the biggest idiot in the room, but close.
The place I’m at right now doesn’t look like a regular resort or a hotel. Many thing made me wonder why, like they do laundry across the street, lobby is on the second floor, no bar or restaurant. Googled a little bit and found the answer.
It was built as a condo highrise and seems like they are really desperate now – renting, while asking $179K for really a nice unit ( I’m at the cheapest one @ phase II). 1Br, ocean view, central AC, dishwasher/washer/dryer, 2 flat panel tv.
http://www.oceaninvestments.com/condos/view/Sandy-Beach-Resort-Phase-II-Myrtle-Beach-Project-Home.html
Phase I is cheaper (renovated old construction) and pretty much filled up, but they still cannot fully rent phase II tower even at the rates, I would say to be ridicules a couple years ago. Amusement park across the street is almost dead, operating probably at 1/5 of capacity. And virutally no traffic on the roads.
And I can’t believe the picture
http://www.oceaninvestments.com/condos/view/Oceans-One-Resort-Project-Home.html
This one is about 50ft from my balcony!
here!
http://69.74.229.4/P1010080.jpg
Dell Outlet link for the laptop Shore…
http://outlet.us.dell.com/ARBOnlineSales/topics/global.aspx/arb/online/en/InventorySearch?c=us&cs=22&l=en&lob=INSP&MODEL_DESC=Studio%2017%20-%201735&s=dfh
245:
Stu/Shore
Stu/Shore
For Dell,
If you are not in a rush,
just check http://www.searchalldeals.com/ every day. Best time to purchase is the end of their financial quarter.
Scribe,
NJC is a poster here who also mixes a great Pain Killer, a drimk from the BVI.
Fire,
What is your impression of the SC shore area?