From HousingWire:
Here’s why the rest of 2014 will be rough for housing
The next couple of quarters may be rough going for the housing and finance industry.
Housing prices and mortgage activity will stay highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve interest rate policy and guidance because of a weak job market, affordability challenges and the declining pool of first-time homebuyers.
Worse still, home price appreciation may level off and even dip into negative territory by the third quarter of 2014.
“Housing price appreciation (is) already on the decline, with only six cities in the Case-Shiller index showing strength in recent indexing – Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, San Francisco, Tampa, and Washington,” says Tom Showalter, chief analytics officer at Digital Risk, which handles $8 billion in loan volume monthly. “Moreover, while home prices have increased, at least 25% of all homes are still under water.”
December home sales showed that 40% of sales were all cash – suggesting strong investor participation. Originations are also at a 14-year low.
“As investors leave market, there is little evidence that typical retail buyer will take up the slack,” Showalter said.
…
These issues have been compounded by the fact that “many banks and lenders are exiting mortgage lending as application rates hit ten year lows, complemented by increasing regulatory burdens and penalties, and increasing capital requirements. New Basel III regs now require 5% capital ratios for mortgage lending, a requirement that is largely punitive,” Showalter said. “The ultimate causes have nothing to do with the weather. Rather the issues are weak job market, flat consumer income and excessive regulation.”
From the Record:
N.J. foreclosures are slowest in nation
The average time it takes for a foreclosure to be completed in New Jersey has stretched to more than three years — the longest in the nation — according to a new report from RealtyTrac, a California company that follows the foreclosure market nationwide.
New Jersey is one of about two-dozen states where foreclosures go through the courts, slowing down the process.
And Peggy Jurow, a Montclair lawyer who defends homeowners facing foreclosure, said the three-year average is misleading because it includes some cases that were stalled after state courts declared a moratorium in 2010, until questions about mortgage industry abuses were addressed.
Cases filed since 2012, she said, are moving much more quickly.
“If you come to me with a case that was filed last week, that case can be concluded in nine to 12 months,” Jurow said.
Foreclosure activity in the state is running 68 percent ahead of last year’s rate, RealtyTrac also reported. RealtyTrac measures all foreclosure filings, ranging from the mortgage servicer’s notice that it is starting a foreclosure through to a sheriff’s auction of the property.
“We continue to see an increase in foreclosures in Passaic County,” said County Clerk Kristin Corrado. “It’s unfortunate.” So far this year, she said, there have been 830 initial foreclosure notices in the county, up from 656 in the comparable period last year.
In Bergen County, foreclosure activity climbed 33 percent from March 2013 to March 2014, according to RealtyTrac.
Perhaps BC Lurker IS well advised to strategically default. It could mean swinging from loss to gain on cash flow and the net swing over the default could easily be six figures.
1 – Not if the data in 1 is correct.
Looking at the BC Sheriff Sales listings and I see a foreclosure that took less than 3 months from schedule to REO. I should say this was immediately next to a foreclosure that had started in 2008, so YMMV.
Sales Listing Details
Sheriff #: F-13006237
Court Case #: F04922910
Sales Date: 4/11/2014
Plaintiff: SELF RELIANCE (NY) FEDERAL CREDIT UNION
Defendant: ANTONIO CARVALHO ET AL
Address: 381 CEDAR AVENUE
RIDGEWOOD NJ 07450
Description:
Approx. Upset*: $655,747.27
Attorney: LEANZA & AGRAPIDIS
Status History
Status Date
Scheduled 1/24/2014
Adjourned – Defendant 2/21/2014
Adjourned – Court 3/28/2014
Adjourned – Plaintiff 4/11/2014
Purchased – Plaintiff 4/11/2014
I take it back, all their data looked fucked – perhaps 30yr can chime in. There seems to be a significant number of foreclosures in BC being completed in under 1 year.
Yeah, that data is wrong, I’m showing the lis pendens on that cedar house filed in 2010.
No doubt to me that BC Lurky guy should default. How many tens of thousands would you pay just to have a good credit score, especially when you could rebuild a damaged score within 30-36 months of FK?
It’s only fair. :)
Hit to credit score is irrelevant – we’re talking real money here – pocketing rents could yield upwards of 6 figures in 3 years.
Happy taxes day!
Astonishing that most ppl complain about them, yet nobody complains about 3 main uses:
1.military
2.social security
3.socialized medicine for the old.
Yep, that makes 90%
yet your average republican savage would say that most taxes go to welfare
@WSJmarkets: As April 15 tax day nears, here’s a question: Where do your tax dollars go? http://t.co/f6aaVaMATP http://t.co/2dmg4DlKkG
And your average democrat would say that most taxes should go to welfare….
When are you going to realize that political party is irrelevant? Both sides are steaming shit piles of corruption, the only difference is the justification they use to hide it. When you pick a side, it’s only because you’ve been fooled by them.
I know plenty of democratic politicians in NJ that are so corrupt they make their republican counterparts look like f*cking rookies.
any and all taxpayers have a right to voice an opinion and if you want 0% going to welfare is OK. my point is the idiocy of believing that MOST of your federal taxes go to welfare when that is not the fukcing case and in-fact is in the low single digit. so how are we to have a rational discussion between the faith-based and the reality-based
“People are often surprised by how much of the federal budget comes down to Social Security, Medicare and defense,” Mr. Adler says. “When I ask what they want to cut, usually the first item is foreign aid—but it’s very small.”
(3) Why is that credit union lending to a Portuguese dude? It’s not in their charter. Must have been an arranged marriage.
I dont use the military, SS or Mecidcare or Medicaid.
7.anon (the good one) says:
April 15, 2014 at 7:51 am
Happy taxes day!
Astonishing that most ppl complain about them, yet nobody complains about 3 main uses:
1.military
2.social security
3.socialized medicine for the old.
Well considering it is tax day I got great tax news last night. I got my 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 taxes lowered due to the SuperStormSandy Assesment relief act.
Getting a check for 5k for a refund of taxes paid last year and I am getting 6k off this year taxes. My home taxes are $8,500 a year so it gets my property taxes down to $2,500 for this year.
Plus I still have a SCAR (small claims assessment review) pending on the 2014/2015 taxes and a greivance pending on the 2015.2016 taxes.
So mortgage and flood insurance combined is $2,000 a year add in taxes and I am at $4.500 all in costs to own my house for 2014. Well actually since I am getting back $5,000 for last year all in costs are $-500.
God Bless America and Free Market Capitalism. Also my exteme cheapskateness paid off.
Employers check credit history for new hires in many cases….just thought BC Lurker should consider this…
6.grim says:
April 15, 2014 at 7:41 am
Hit to credit score is irrelevant – we’re talking real money here – pocketing rents could yield upwards of 6 figures in 3 years.
13 – Two possible outcomes, either way he wins.
1) He lets them know about his savvy plan and they hire him on the spot for clearly having strong business acumen.
2) He cops a story about being taken advantage of during the boom, and garners enough sympathy for having struggled to keep up with his commitments until they were too much to bear.
Non-self-defensive military adventures, social security and medicare are all modern forms of welfare.
I paid over $400k in taxes for 2013. I guess that makes me a better citizen than anon.
However, the Beatles got screwed even worse than I did.
http://www.thebeatles.com/song/taxman
Let me tell you how it will be,
There’s one for you, nineteen for me,
Cause I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
Should five per cent appear too small,
Be thankful I don’t take it all,
Cause I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat,
If you get too cold, I’ll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet.
Taxman.
Cause I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
Don’t ask me what I want it for
(Taxman Mister Wilson)
If you don’t want to pay some more
(Taxman Mister Heath),
Cause I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
Now my advice for those who die,
Declare the pennies on your eyes,
Cause I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
And you’re working for no-one but me,
Taxman.
You can’t even put a number on how long a foreclosure takes in Morris County because they never complete.
The average time it takes for a foreclosure to be completed in New Jersey has stretched to more than three years — the longest in the nation — according to a new report from RealtyTrac, a California company that follows the foreclosure market nationwide.
#15
You forgot to add the bloated “financial services” industry to the list of modern welfare recipients.
When Ralph Nader first ran for president his father asked him if he really thought that the US needed a third party. Nader’s reply:
“No, but I think they could use a second one.”
When are you going to realize that political party is irrelevant? Both sides are steaming shit piles of corruption, the only difference is the justification they use to hide it. When you pick a side, it’s only because you’ve been fooled by them.
We trimed the dead branches. I could probably command an attack, balance the budget and solve the health crisis quicker than I could drink a cold pint of beer.
18.nwnj says:
April 15, 2014 at 9:18 am
#15
You forgot to add the bloated “financial services” industry to the list of modern welfare recipients.
Civilian dash cam vs irate border patrol agent.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/04/14/federal-agent-tried-to-blame-him-for-an-accident-little-did-he-know-this-key-piece-of-evidence-existed/
Well said. After nom’s enlightening post, I’m done trying to fight the good fight. It’s a waste of time. I’m focusing my attention on this board on ways to make money. Going the Fast Eddie route, fu3k you pay me.
grim says:
April 15, 2014 at 7:57 am
And your average democrat would say that most taxes should go to welfare….
When are you going to realize that political party is irrelevant? Both sides are steaming shit piles of corruption, the only difference is the justification they use to hide it. When you pick a side, it’s only because you’ve been fooled by them.
I know plenty of democratic politicians in NJ that are so corrupt they make their republican counterparts look like f*cking rookies.
Damn Rags, you are the 1%? You must have made between 1 and 2.6 mil, depending on what % you paid in taxes. Do you mind me asking what you do? And don’t worry I’m done with my attack on the 1%.
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2014 at 9:06 am
I paid over $400k in taxes for 2013. I guess that makes me a better citizen than anon.
However, the Beatles got screwed even worse than I did.
My recommendation? Ignore party and vote the incumbent out, for every position, regardless of how good or bad they are perceived to be doing – from the President down the the Dog Catcher.
grim – That’s been my exact voting behavior for years. Unfortunately, not too effective here in Boston.
My recommendation? Ignore party and vote the incumbent out, for every position, regardless of how good or bad they are perceived to be doing – from the President down the the Dog Catcher.
Great point, there is no such thing as a free lunch
Street Justice says:
April 15, 2014 at 8:49 am
Employers check credit history for new hires in many cases….just thought BC Lurker should consider this…
6.grim says:
April 15, 2014 at 7:41 am
Hit to credit score is irrelevant – we’re talking real money here – pocketing rents could yield upwards of 6 figures in 3 years.
Anon [7];
Wow, you really snck at math (I find most leftists do) almost as bad as you do at reasoning. From your own source: Military & Benefits (23.7%) + SS (23.4%) + Medicare (14.2%) = 61.3%, not 90% or anything close.
BTW, raising a military is something that our government was explicitly created to do (go read the Constitution, if you’re interested). Paying for old people is not in there.
And yes, some people do have a principled problem with the generational theft that is going on. You’ve been reading too much Twitter, and not enuogh NJRER. I guess anything longer than 141 characters taxes your attention span. https://www.facebook.com/GenLocust
Classic!!
The Original NJ ExPat says:
April 15, 2014 at 9:18 am
When Ralph Nader first ran for president his father asked him if he really thought that the US needed a third party. Nader’s reply:
“No, but I think they could use a second one.”
Was talking to my wife, and she said that she has seen an uptick in the houses coming on the market this week in northern nj. Said that they followed the same theme, almost all needed work. Nothing in move-in-condition.
” After nom’s enlightening post, I’m done trying to fight the good fight. It’s a waste of time.”
Everyone can thank me over the course of the day! Donations to grim in my name are appreciated.
(Michael, just having a little fun with it.)
Michael [29];
If so many houses now coming on the market need work, maybe its because their owners were just barely hanging on, and couldn’t afford to keep up with the maintenance themselves? Maybe there is a little something to Fast Eddie’s theory?Maybe they’re only coming to market now because the Fed-fueled rebound in prices gives sellers a reason to test the waters?
[29] michael
In a down market, getting a fixer-upper is desirable, especially if its condition or appearance is not major $$$ but seems to be putting off buyers. That way, you can sink the difference into improvements you want and get to enjoy them over your own tenancy in the house. I learned the hard way to make those changes as soon as possible after you move in. Otherwise, you are merely buying improvements for the next owner.
Nothing in move-in-condition.
The “move-in” condition houses are either private sales through someone who knows someone, pocket listings or ultra high end dwellings that few of us can afford or need. Everything is else is dog sh1t on a paper plate attached to a dream price.
[19] expat,
One of my favorite political quotes is attributed to Adlai Stevenson. After a speech, a well-wisher told him “A great speech sir. You will have every thinking man’s vote.”
Stevenson replied “It’s not enough. I need a majority.”
Well, you all know what day it is (and no “Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike . . . “)
So its back to the salt mines early for me today.
Happy Tax Day (an oxymoron if there ever was one!)
can’t say if you are better citizen than anon (the good one) without more info.
if you made $4m but only paid $400k, then you are a worse citizen than anon (the good one) cause you are dodging your taxes
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2014 at 9:06 am
I paid over $400k in taxes for 2013. I guess that makes me a better citizen than anon.
[34] Nom – that’s one of my faves too.
anon (the good one),
How much of your post-tax income, time and resources do you donate to the victims of the 1% to alleviate their pain and suffering?
Anon’s math
400K in income taxes = bad citizen
50K year in benefits no income taxes = good citizen
one contributes and creates jobs the other takes. Anon I can not put it any easier or more simply for you.
Rag how many people do you employ or provide services to who benefit from your labor? Not counting the orphan slave labor you use to polish your monocle and top hat collection.
Grim #4 – Foreclosure times are very strange right now. Time from final judgement to sheriff sale is very short right now, about 3 months I am told. All Counties are the same, it is a statewide process. Institutions which were not a part of the robo-signing scandal have had their foreclosures sail through the process very quickly. Trouble is that those foreclosures are only the tip of the foreclosure iceberg. When the files from the big banks begin to move through the system time frames will get longer again.
I theorized this happening. Homes that will be coming into market will need a lot of work. Homeowners were able to make the homes look like “Homes of the rich and Famous” during the bubble because of easy lending. Those homes are mostly gone or being sold as private sale, if the intention was to fix and sell.What is left are the homes of the boomers that did not maintain their homes that are mostly paid in full.
Welcome to the new normal
Back with a quick observation. anon was uncharacteristically quiet after the Ft. Hood shooting, and again after the Kansas City shooting. After the latter, I was assuming all of the leftwingnuttery would be out in force and MSNBC would stop beating the Bridgegate drum for awhile. But relative silence–no snarky tweets, no MSNBC campaign. Clearly KC didn’t fit the narrative but it seemed to fit perfectly. Huh?
Then I see a CNN report that the KC shooter wasn’t (as all assumed) a Christian, and then there was this:
http://downtrend.com/71superb/jewish-community-center-shooter-fan-of-obama-and-louis-farrakhan/
A fan of Obama and Farrakhan, and a convicted felon who obtained firearms illegally. Nope, not good facts if you are looking to guilt your opponents and push a regulation that clearly didn’t work.
There, now perhaps I have preempted the Twit in Chief from tweeting. That’s a twofer from me today.
Back to taxes.
If all homes coming to market all needs work, all move in condition are gone or sold privately, does that mean home prices really gone up ,although prices stayed the same or gone down a bit?
yome [43],
Repeat that in English, please. :)
#44
If all homes coming to market all needs work, all move in condition are gone or sold privately, does that mean home prices really gone up in price? Although prices stayed the same or gone down a bit. Remember if you are a buyer this are your only choices unless you have connection to the private sale
(45) getting closer
At the end of the last Gilded Age a hundred years ago, a now-forgotten popular mass movement won some important victories in the fight over who would run our democracy: the people or the tiny, wealthy elite.
Among their achievements was the adoption of the progressive income tax, which marked the first time in our history that the fortunes of the fortunate few were taxed in a significant way.
That was the whole point. In conjunction with other policies, including an inheritance tax, the income tax was supposed to slow the rapid accumulation of money at the very top, to erode the privileges of special interests, and to make sure that an entrenched aristocracy could not overpower a government of the people.
Back then, people had a clear view of where they stood in the grand scheme. A class war was raging, and they’d been on the losing side.
As Teddy Roosevelt said in calling for an income tax: “This conflict between the men who possess more than they have earned and the men who have earned more than they possess is the central condition of progress.”
If that is the measure of our progress, we haven’t come very far. The truly wealthy own as large a share of the national wealth as they ever did, and their share is likely to grow rapidly in the next few decades, if Thomas Piketty is right.
Today, the tax system as a whole is still mildly progressive. The wealthy are taxed a little more than the rest of us, though it may not feel that way, especially today, the deadline for paying the IRS. But the tax code does very little to slow the accumulation of wealth into fewer hands.
Today, the wealthy elite laughs at the tax collector. Yes, they pay some taxes, but only enough to keep the rest of us subdued. They know how to work the loopholes and the tax shelters so that taxes are never a burden on them or their lucky heirs.
We are told that the top 1% pay a huge percentage of the total income tax collected — 40% or more. But when you include all taxes — Social Security and Medicare taxes, excise taxes, state and local taxes — the top 1% don’t pay much more of their income in taxes than the rest of us do.
According to an analysis by Citizens for Tax Justice, the top 1% (households making an average of $1.5 million) will pay 33% of their income in federal, state and local taxes this year, compared with a 28% tax rate for middle-income families making around $45,000.
The top 0.01% — the truly rich who have incomes averaging $31 million — generally pay an even lower effective tax rate. Why? Because most of their income is in the form of lightly taxed capital gains.
It’s important to understand that almost all realized capital gains go to the richest 0.1%. And much of their wealth is in unrealized capital gains, which are never taxed. The bulk of the wealth of Bill Gates of Microsoft MSFT +0.13% , Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B +0.32% and Wal-Mart’s Sam Walton WMT -1.01% , or their heirs, will never be taxed.
As Piketty shows in his new book, Capital in the 21st Century, inherited wealth is becoming the dominant form of wealth, just as it was in the days of Marie Antoinette. Inherited wealth rewards the lucky, not the clever or the industrious.
We could live with such disparities if they made our economy stronger, but there is no evidence that low tax rates on capital gains foster economic growth, although that is the rationale for taxing them at 15%.
“The reduction in the top tax rates appears to be uncorrelated with saving, investment, and productivity growth,” according to Thomas Hungerford, an economist for the Congressional Research Service. “The top tax rates appear to have little or no relation to the size of the economic pie. The top tax rate reductions, however, appear to be associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution.”
Taxing capital gains at a lower rate leads to lots of unproductive tax-avoidance behavior, as people attempt to convert ordinary income (which would be taxed at marginal rates up to 39.6%) into long-term capital gains (taxed at 15%). That’s why hedge-fund managers scheme to collect their salary as a capital gain (even though they have no capital at risk).
Unfortunately, 130 million wage earners cannot convert their pay into capital gains.
Low or non-existent taxes on capital gains have worsened our budget position, and have worsened the gap between the multibillionaires and the rest of us. Those twin gaps threaten our democracy and our economy.
We know that raising taxes on the rich won’t be easy politically, nor will it be easy in practice because of the ingenuity of tax lawyers and others who invent new tax-avoidance schemes. But it’s always been an uphill battle. Getting the income tax adopted in the first place required a constitutional amendment, and that required a mass movement motivated to make America a more just nation.
That’s the kind of mass movement we need again today.
REX NUTTING
yome,
There’s no inventory or the inventory that’s there is dog sh1t if you’re not connected. It’s supply and demand, right? If a house is made public and it really is a decent buy, people are going to get into a bidding war and the house is gone in a flash. There’s nothing to shop for; you can’t compare houses and make a decision. There’s no semblance of normal in this market. It’s primed, pumped, propped and on a respirator.
And there’s no inventory because people are f.ucked. They’re holding on but they’re underwater. I know a few people in this predicament personally. If they try to sell, they’re going to lose a lot of money or must come to the closing table with a check… money that they don’t have. Multiple that by 10,000 for our area alone.
So, what’s left? It’s the sh1t that no one really wants at a price that’s too high. It’s the kids selling Mommy and Daddy’s house that hasn’t been cleaned or painted in 40 years or it’s someone looking to make a score for their sh1hole.
The only option in this market is to write a letter and target the homes in the desired neighborhood. It’s not about getting a deal, it’s about getting the house you want, not the pile of sh1t at some fantasy price.
I previously mentioned I’m moving to Palo Alto area. Crazy expensive RE market, but very efficient. They typically price it below what they think they’ll get, people offer what they want to spend and the best offer prevails. It almost makes it seem like RE agents are unnecessary out there from a listing perspective, but they still use them.
I’m planning on listing my home here in NJ soon. I’m having trouble finding the price point as I see some houses with list prices that I think are too much and I would list for less. But I don’t want to sell myself short as the market here is different than CA and I would expect an offer of less than asking, regardless of asking price (I know that’s how I would make an offer even if I thought the home was well priced). I don’t expect a bidding war.
I’d rather a bidding war where the house ends up selling for the market, not just a timing thing as people didn’t look at the listings in the 2 weeks my house was listed and someone made an early offer and I accepted because it was good enough.
Realtors out there, have you seen any bidding wars recently? Or is all the good stuff done privately?
If you are a home buyer,this is your only choice or buy a newly built one. You can curse the homes in the market all you want but if they will not go down in price and somebody is buying them,this the supply and demand. Nothing you can do about it but sit on the side line.
Let us face it. Few have $30K to renovate unless they can get a loan.Just like Nom said, you are fixing it for the next homeowner. Why bother
“So, what’s left? It’s the sh1t that no one really wants at a price that’s too high. It’s the kids selling Mommy and Daddy’s house that hasn’t been cleaned or painted in 40 years or it’s someone looking to make a score for their sh1hole.”
Wow, good point. I never even thought of this angle. I would say 90% of the houses being sold have not been taken care of for at the minimum 15 years.
yome says:
April 15, 2014 at 10:52 am
#44
If all homes coming to market all needs work, all move in condition are gone or sold privately, does that mean home prices really gone up in price? Although prices stayed the same or gone down a bit. Remember if you are a buyer this are your only choices unless you have connection to the private sale
Great point!!! Keep em coming nom!
“I learned the hard way to make those changes as soon as possible after you move in. Otherwise, you are merely buying improvements for the next owner.”
Mike,
I help channel people’s savings into productive investments around the world, directing this capital to its best uses. This simultaneously helps build global economies while rewarding these savers/investors with growing wealth.
and the fatter a cat you are the lower the risk because the taxes of the poor will bail out failed investments – see Global Financial Crisis
Ragnar says:
April 15, 2014 at 11:30 am
Mike,
I help channel people’s savings into productive investments around the world, directing this capital to its best uses. This simultaneously helps build global economies while rewarding these savers/investors with growing wealth.
47- Damn it, Yome!!! Are you trying to bring me back in? lol
anon (the good one),
What percentage of tax revenues come from the top 10% of wage earners?
Move in condition houses sometimes worry me too. For instance, I am actually aggressively looking for a bigger house now. Adding any type of extension or any major work to my house is not worth it as whole permiting process, flood insurance, taxes are not worth it plus contractors are way over charging for work.
Plan is to buy a new home, fix it and move in. Then clean out my house. Then bring my off the books handiman, paint it, new screen doors, sand floors, tile back room, fix leaks, plaster up and paint garage and sell. It will look mint.
However, your discount to do work yourself is gone. Also you may not look so close as to realize since I am selling I am fixing all damage to sell and avoilding any expensive repairs that dont add value to house.
I guarantted house will sell in ten minutes. The low taxes and freshly redone will draw newly wed couples in like a moth to a flame. I dont care if I have to keep it till Spring 2015. Next flood takes it out so what. It will be an empty house. No flood this fall by Spring 2015 Sandy will be a distant memory.
As Al Goldstein once said show me a beautiful women and I will show you a guy sick of screwing her. All houses on the market someone is dumping for a reason. Even estate sales. Hey my Mom had four kids, if her house was so great why didn’t any of her four kids want it. Well it was overpriced, small and on a busy street. Very charming but that wears thin quick in a shoebox with car horms beeping
I said that the only way to get the “good jobs” was networking. It seems we can apply this to housing. I think it’s just human nature, giving an advantage to the people you know.
“There’s no inventory or the inventory that’s there is dog sh1t if you’re not connected. It’s supply and demand, right? If a house is made public and it really is a decent buy, people are going to get into a bidding war and the house is gone in a flash. There’s nothing to shop for; you can’t compare houses and make a decision. There’s no semblance of normal in this market. It’s primed, pumped, propped and on a respirator.”
#57…wife won that battle I see!
(57)Best thing I ever did to upgrade my house was finish my basement. That was about 13 years ago when all the kids were young teens or pre-teens. I put in over $30k materials, just subcontracting only sheetrock and ceiling. I would not do it now, no one would be around enough to enjoy it.
The swimming pool is there, sauna, hot tub, etc. all functioning like new. Hardly anyone around long enough to take a swim, get steamed up, to loosen up. I’m more or less done with landscaping, planting trees. Am actually ripping up my vegetable garden because there are better alternatives.
I know when it is time to sell my house that it will be in tip-top condition. New paint, redone floors, tiles, ladi, ladi. I will prep it for the next guy because this is the house that my wife and I built. I don’t want to see it go down.
My parents did it the same way.
There is no inventory problem, there is a pricing problem. The spring market is DOA in CT. There were a dozen price drops this week for $500k range homes in Fairfield alone. Loads of inventory coming on. Primed for some low balls late summer. People will be begging to take their home. I think investors pulled back and first time buyer are priced out or can’t qualify. I would love a solid home that needs some work but not overpriced dumps with bad streets and leaky basement. I have one house where guy has cemetary in back and 95 in front. He wtill wants 100k more than 2003 price. I have to post it. Classic. Realtor summaris a joke. Should say Poltergeist was filmed here.
(62) you know what they say about living next to a cemetery: you won’t have noisy neighbors and they will never complain.
I dont network for jobs. Being the best looking, most qualified and hung like a Donkey makes it easy.
Actually I am dredding it but I saw a good pre-foreclosure in town. Biggest house in my town full of little splits and capes. I heard couple may be getting divorced, Wells just served him three weeks ago. Only contact I could find was his work phone number. Appears they are not at the house much. Going to call him at work this afternoon.
Dont want to lose house but call a guy in his 50’s losing his house and wife at work to say hey want to make a deal should be fun. But this is what you have to do to find inventory.
58.Michael says:
April 15, 2014 at 12:17 pm
I said that the only way to get the “good jobs” was networking. It seems we can apply this to housing. I think it’s just human nature, giving an advantage to the people you know.
“There’s no inventory or the inventory that’s there is dog sh1t if you’re not connected. It’s supply and demand, right? If a house is made public and it really is a decent buy, people are going to get into a bidding war and the house is gone in a flash. There’s nothing to shop for; you can’t compare houses and make a decision. There’s no semblance of normal in this market. It’s primed, pumped, propped and on a respirator.”
Michael,
I said that the only way to get the “good jobs” was networking. It seems we can apply this to housing.
And to government jobs too. You must know someone there.
Nom,
Smart you wised up about making improvement to home when you live there rather than when you are about to sell. Likewise, why pay extra for a home with the former owner’s tastes in style. Better off buying a well maintained, but less updated home and pay for the improvements yourself.
BC Lurker,
Shame on you for being a long-time lurker and getting yourself into the type of hole that so many of us here lament. As to the accidental landlord thing, adding to JJ’s price paid, you also must be handy. For example, my Spring to do list on our multi is as follows: Check the leases for renewal dates and refund gas charges (if there is any). Cover about 2 foot length of potentially asbestos covered pipe in laundry room in basement or remove it using glove bag. Fix backyard spigot (tenants forgot to turn off water to it this winter and of course, the pipe burst. Fix kitchen sink drain (slow leak, needs new threaded stem). Paint porch floorboards (after the pollen explosion I will do this). Fix landscaping railroad ties in rear (didn’t stagger them enough and one side fell over after 8 years). Prune trees. Examine retaining wall in backyard. Trim hedges. All of this will probably cost me about $100 in materials and about two weekend days in labor. If you are not willing to this stuff yourself, I could easily see it costing the well-manicured landlord 4 to 6K. This is where the accidental landlord gets screwed.
Xolepa,
Finishing the basement can be a very good investment. As a matter of fact, besides improving curb appeal, I would venture that finishing the basement is perhaps the only other investment in your home that one can actually get more value from than what it actually cost. I soffeted in all of my asbestos covered pipes, put in lighting, a drop ceiling and click floors as well as two hollow wood doors for a little over $2,000 in materials. My downstairs tenants love the space and use it as a huge playroom. Plus, it’s naturally cool down there in the Summer. It definitely helps us maintain the high rents.
I once put in an offer to buy a house next to a cemetary. It was really nice, the graves were right over back fence. Women goes I never wanted to sell I wanted to die here I love it so much. I told her her this is a great house for it you can just throw the body right over back fence after you die her.
She was not amused. This is why homeowners should not sell own house. They dont apprecitate folks like me.
62.Xolepa says:
April 15, 2014 at 12:55 pm
(62) you know what they say about living next to a cemetery: you won’t have noisy neighbors and they will never complain.
Do illegal finished basements add value? The vast majority of homes with them I notice have no permits.
My list on my rental is file liens and sue all the deadbeats. Complete tax greivance for building. Complete NY Rising and grant forms, finish Clean and Seed applicaton process to get landscaping done for free, pay off loan with grant money, get maint lowered. Also see what I can do on flood insurance renewal. It is a small condo development so I can effect change.
My condo is perfectly fine but as treasurer of condo I am on the warpath to increase value. Accidential landlord in a condo is also bad. Plus on board I get all sales info and first notice of any foreclosures or distress sales.
My goal is to in three years get maint to 350 a month and taxes to 350 a month.
One guy in building told another guy in building in arrears that if my mother was late in maint I would evict her and kick her down the stairs for good measure. I need these folks to pay up or fear the wrath of JJ.
Of course one lady on board told me it is easy for you to be tough, You dont live here and folks dont know your home address. You try what you are doing and living here at same time.I then pushed her down the stairs
Bystander,
I just did a quick search on realtor.com and there are 593 houses listed for sale? H0ly Sh1t!! The population is around 57,000 people. It appears that there is some inventory. Is Fairfield a tale of two towns? Is there a really sh1tty section? I don’t know much about the town.
We noticed way more inventory went on line in Montclair the last few weeks. I think a lot of people waited for Spring weather to arrive. One road (Buckingham I think) has 4 houses for sale in about a 10 house radius.
Do illegal finished basements add value? The vast majority of homes with them I notice have no permits.
In most NJ towns you would need a CO – and during the town CO walkthrough they would realize the basement was finished and require permits/inspections prior to granting the CO.
So technically, it wouldn’t be illegal at the sale.
I’ve also never heard or seen of anyone that needed to tear anything down, assuming the construction was correct and that no codes were violated.
If there was an issue, I believe there is a technicality where you could simply remove the ceiling and expose the joists – which would make the area unfinished.
Xoelpa,
http://m.trulia.com/homes/Connecticut/Fairfield/sold/419366-49-Redfield-Rd-Fairfield-CT-06824
Calling all psychics, zombie apocalyspe lovers, and necrophiliacs. Please tell me how a location can get worse, unless it was teetering above a dung heap too. Of course he wants 110% return on his purchase price. This is why market is f-ed.
Grim i have a question for you what constitutes a finished basement.
Lets say i added sheet rock and divided the basement (laundry, utilities, storage) but left ceiling joists and slab exposed. In this f’d up sate is that a finished basement?
By – it could be on Staten Island
Did you really just try to comp against a 1998 price?
A 4% trendline from the 1998 purchase price would hit $300k in 2014. Looks like they made a number of improvements to the home over that period.
I don’t know the area, perhaps it got worse. Just looking at the trulia crime and school rankings, the area looks to be very low crime and greatschools rankings of 9 across the board.
Is that place really a shithole? The pictures really aren’t terrible, and at $359k, with relatively low taxes, it doesn’t seem at all unaffordable for a pretty wide swath of the population.
71 – it would not be considered “finished”. You can stud your walls and insulate simply for energy efficiency purposes, doesn’t mean it is “finished”, even with drywall.
(70) That’s a beautiful home for 7 families that used to live in an Asian backwater.
I can’t comment, except, whatever it sells at will be considered the market.
Grim,
Please hit map then satellite view, zoom in. You really believe this house has a normal treadline? This is about the least desirable street I can imagine with zero property. What happened to location, location, location?
76 – Yeah, can’t quite get worse, like I said not familiar with the area, but I’d imagine the area was relatively similar in ’98. Lot sizes are relative to the area. I’ve seen plenty of places on 40×100 lots in Montclair and GR go for absurd amounts.
What’s a similar house comp for in a better area?
Fast,
Inventory has been building since last summer. Fairfield borders Bridgeport which is one of worst crime infested cities anywhere. Stratfield is blue collar area but rest of town is pretty nice. Good downtown and schools. Commute to GCT is killer. 1:15 each way. Stageone is great venue for music. Like MTV studios with intimate soundstage. Two of Talking Heads founders live there. They bring in amazing groups. I like it culturally. Beach area got wiped out by hurricanes and Fema not helping with flood insurance.
thanks Grim
Foreigners are always suckers for buying houses on main streets in close proximity to commercial that locals otherwise wouldn’t consider.
I think we had a day long discussion on this a few years back. In some cultures/areas, buying the house on a highly trafficked main street is a way of conspicuous consumption. Everyone will know you are successful to own a house, because everyone will see it every day.
You ever wonder about those massive McMansions on lots too close to highways and main intersections? Now you don’t need to wonder.
Very different from the perception here, other than say Ridgewood Ave in GR, where you’ll pay a premium to live on a double yellow.
Indians love busy roads. They dont use yards and are used to noice and hustle and bustle. They just care about square feet. Also on busy road you dont notice 3 indian families jammed into one house. Also a lot of the illegals nannies, or their parents, or help they use dont drive and busy roads are usually near bus and train spots.
A cull de sac not walking distance to a bus or a train is not good
Al-Qaeda channeling Clot, via The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/fbi-uncovers-alqaeda-plot-to-just-sit-back-and-enj,35788/
WASHINGTON—Putting the nation on alert against what it has described as a “highly credible terrorist threat,” the FBI announced today that it has uncovered a plot by members of al-Qaeda to sit back and enjoy themselves while the United States collapses of its own accord.
Multiple intelligence agencies confirmed that the militant Islamist organization and its numerous affiliates intend to carry out a massive, coordinated plan to stand aside and watch America’s increasingly rapid decline, with terrorist operatives across the globe reportedly mobilizing to take it easy, relax, and savor the spectacle as it unfolds. . . .
I don’t see the problem with a lot of double line roads. Yes, I don’t like the very busy ones, but just because it is a double line, does not make it busy. There are plenty of nice double line roads that I would not mind living on.
It is always funny, that a lot of the biggest houses are at the end of a dead end. Why have the beautiful giant house, if you are going to be the only one who sees it? I’m not saying being a showboat….. I’m just saying there is no point to a beautiful lawn and home if nobody sees it. This might just be me. Feel like it’s the equivalent of having a nice lawn in the middle of the woods…what’s the point?
“Very different from the perception here, other than say Ridgewood Ave in GR, where you’ll pay a premium to live on a double yellow.”
Bystander, I agree with grim. What’s the problem with that price? I don’t know the area, but that can’t be that overpriced. Are you joking with us or being serious? I’m a little lost.
Fast,
I just made up a new real estate term accidentally- treadline. Definition: pattern of bagholders with pursed lips and snared bungholes, sucking that last air of hope equity before plunging into the abyss.
In a sentence, USR’s treadline shows that young Preston won’t get his minitaure pony this year, nor a $5k catered birthday event. Chuck E. Cheese with a coupon, Preston.
Mike,
In 1998, my father bought a nice 2000 sq ft colonial on quiet 1/2 acre property with river views in toney River Vale. The price was $370k. This place has dead bodies in back yard and tandem rigs cruising through the (miniscule) front yard plus 60 miles from NY. Is it overpriced?? Hell yes. This guy should be lucky to have a dime of appreciation. It should be nearly unsellable based on location. I will watch it but if it sells for $260k then guy should feel blessed by the spirits who roam his house.
Bystander. It’s a pretty crappy location, but every home has a price. It seems like a lot of houses in bad locations like that get rented out. Rent still equates to some non-negative value. I wouldn’t live there but that’s because I have better alternatives. A shack like that in Florida sells for about $70,000, except people don’t build houses like that. The house looks clean inside. I guess Fairfield CT offers better work opportunities than FL.
Re: Fairfield CT: smaller, less updated house on same street sold for 296k last summer
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/57-Redfield-Rd-Fairfield-CT-06824/57300094_zpid/
“Excellent Train Commuter Location for Metro North Line. Fairfield Train Station is within TRUE walking distance”
I see the term walking distance in some realtor ads. It is illegal to advertise a house as walking distance to something. It is basically saying no handicap people.
Re: Fairfield CT: smaller, less updated house on same street sold for 296k last summer
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/57-Redfield-Rd-Fairfield-CT-06824/57300094_zpid/
Everything does have its price. In Long Beach all the condos, coops, bottom floor rental units that got flooded in Sandy got renovated and rented out. My favorite is this condo that has basement lower level units. Units are like five feet below ground and four feet above ground. There was four feet of water in Sandy so units had water to ceilings. I see one renvoated unit just rented for $2,100 a month to a couple with an infant and a three year old. Who in their right mind would put an infant four feet below sidewalk level ina flood zone? But it is all brand new top of line for $2,100 a month and upper units in that price range are old and crappy.
Selling prices in our neck of Boston, I think, are now a full 10% higher than the 2005-06 top. I find that worrisome.
47
Wow, what an idiot Rex Nutting is if he thinks the income tax is making this a more fair nation, and not leading to its decline & increasing the wealth gap.
[91] cont’d – But meanwhile, it looks like the bottom just dropped out of sale volume:
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Boston-Massachusetts/market-trends/
Q1 contracts are below 2013, for sure.
April will be a telling month, I think we’re going to see a pop in listings, contracts, sales, etc.
#76
Similar closed sales in area are comparable to the selling price. I dont know the street or how much sold in the same street but with in the area, it is priced right.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/comps/57300094_zpid/
Perusing through the hot sheets this afternoon, lots of activity folks…
Nice house in Wayne just hit the market at a great price, was in ARIP in 2 days. Didn’t make it to the weekend. Listed last Wednesday, was ARIP on Friday.
Get ready for the housing market to go entirely bidless.
This will happen.
Mike,
I help channel people’s savings into productive investments around the world, directing this capital to its best uses. This simultaneously helps build global economies while rewarding these savers/investors with growing wealth.
Lol, is this fancy speak for outsourcing?
Eddie,
just gotta jump at the opportunity. House I bought last year was on the market 5 days before I got them to take it off. That’s how fast I got them into attorney review. I probably paid about $10k more than I would have if I dragged out bargaining for 2 to 3 weeks. Meanwhile, I’m sure someone else would have swooped in and taken it. In the end, the extra $10k was easily worth the price of not renting a friggin town home anymore.
There hasn’t been another good home worth looking at in my price range since.
Yep, I’m convinced. Second dip way down forming now.
[98] Ben
Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.
Yome/gak/grim,
Perhaps this place it priced right..but it did not sell last year at 359K and was pulled. Now, it is back on market at same price. Quite honestly, I have no idea on comparable pricing anymore. I only know what I would pay. Here is my confusion. These places all sold in last year and same block. I can’t tell you why or how people came to these purchase prices. The first was a solid deal. The next two just boggle my mind. WTF?? Did they even see the sale price and beauty of the first house before their offers??
This place is big and updated very nicely and goes for good price at 560K.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/207-Shoreham-Village-Dr-Fairfield-CT-06824/58783463_zpid/
This place is hobbit size and requires updating yet goes for 514K.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/67-Shoreham-Village-Dr-Fairfield-CT-06824/57297080_zpid/
This place is one of the biggest disgusting messes I have ever seen. Top to bottom, complete overhaul. 150k work easily. Not even a kitchen floor. It had one quality. It backed a creek but big freaking deal. It is not ocean front. I saw the people who bought it. Couple in their 50s with money to spend. They overpaid tremendously at 530k.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/266-Shoreham-Village-Dr-Fairfield-CT-06824/58783457_zpid/
Exactly. That’s why you can always hear the jingle of gold in my shorts.
Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.
Grim,
In moderation.
Ex,
Absolutely believe that there is dip coming. The job markets are not strong enough to handle price increases. Even the media is talking down housing lately. They are scared by their own creation last year. The frenzy worked so well and now they realize that they brewed another bubble. Prepare accordingly.
[103] Wage inflation? That’t a thing of the past. In the late 90’s I broke 6 figures for the first time. Now anybody near 6 figures with a good benefits package is realizing how lucky they are and holding on for dear life. To my view, wages have been stagnant or declining for 15 years. How can RE prices go up under those conditions? Answer: They can’t.
Martin Armstrong had better look out. Any more of this common sense, and the gubmint will slam his ass back into Ft. Dix:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-14/martin-armstrong-its-not-rich-–-its-total-cost-government-killing-economy
expat (105)-
Should be some great good fun to see the reflated cadaver of a housing market bust at the same time that the edumacation bubble starts to collapse.
FedCo will be sh!tting itself looking for a credit transmission mechanism that isn’t already destroyed or trip-wired for imminent disaster.
Just when things reach the bleakest point, it all goes to black.
At the same time the BCS colleges start to pay their basketball and football players, they will be shedding students…and the only students they attract will be the idiot offspring of wealthy parents. All they will be in school to do is party and go to ballgames.
Will BCS schools agree to fund sports that are perennial money-losers when the basketball and football players decide to quit allowing the profits they generate to go toward financing the losses?
Look for FedCo to move into payday loans and used car finance.
Clot – agree on all points. I hope the ed bubble breaks, and it should, but long ago I learned that the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, so contingencies are in place.
[106] If the general public was smart enough to A.) know who Martin Armstrong is and B.) Read his writings, he would have disappeared long ago.
[47] yome,
The only research or analysis I care about is what impact marginal tax rate changes will have on the economy at large and on individual cohorts. So I look at a lot of analysis on this (there isn’t much research in the public realm that I have found, surprisingly enough).
It took me this long to figure it out, but there is a common theme running through all of the left-wing arguments for raising taxes dramatically on the “rich” (of which I, surprisingly, am one this year). I should have suspected this theme before because I commented on it in a different manner but I was missing the forest for the trees. And that common thread is this: All commentators arguing for higher marginal rates argue that the economy would not be harmed because when we had these rates in the past, the economy did well. In short, they say “let history be your guide.”
History. Uh huh. History.
Seriously, they say this, and it is the argument, writ large, that they made in support of the Clinton tax hikes until some folks started pointing out that the raging internet bubble and capex spend might have had something to do with it. Oh, and there was that pesky Romer research debunking it (nothing like getting your nice theory debunked by your own economist). But they are undeterred and maintain that we can have the same humming economy we had in the 50’s and 60’s when taxes were much higher than they are now.
Because the global economy today so very much resembles postwar Asia and Europe.
But if the left is really insistent, we CAN replicate the very conditions that existed when we were the dominant, growing, exemplar of a capitalist economy with a burgeoning middle class. And we don’t have to spend any more money to do it. After all, the nukes were paid for long ago.
Night, all.
Global investing, which includes US markets.