Weekly Active Inventory Update for 11/2 – 11/9
GSMLS
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren)
11/2 – 12821
11/9 – 12831 (Flat)
NJMLS
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic)
11/2 – 5760
11/9 – 5796 (0.6% Increase)
Hudson MLS
11/2 – 1729
11/9 – 1769 (2.3% Increase)
Numbers represent active listings of SFH, Condo, Coop, and Townhouse. Multifamily numbers are not included.
Caveat Emptor,
Grim
I just spoke at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Boca Raton Florida (I am not in the R/E industry, since I’m just an accountant). Their chief economist admitted that the bubble has been pierced and it is slowly deflating. He also said that 2007 will be an interesting year because some rediculously large number of ARM’s are up for adjustment. He also said that these borrowers are “unseasoned” which means that they have never gone through a rate adjustment so they are not sure how “performance” on these loans will be. Although the audience was primarilly accountants for large mortgage companies, I expected a pom pom session with him saying everyhting would be fine and housing will continue to rise. His candor amazed me and makes me realize that things will get ugly very soon. Just wanted to pass along these observations.
Thanks for posting. Believe me when I say your words are much appreciated around here.
Not only that but ARM’s are “short-term” compared to fixed-rate mortgages, so in 5-7 years when those mortgages expire a lot of people are gonna be in a pretty ugly situation.
I contemplated an arm for the first part of my mortgage; when doing the math in 7 years I would be at the same payment I would be at now (with the maximum rate increase at every interval). But then, if it did hit that high, the fixed rate mortgages would be atleast 1-2 points above the ARM rates, so I decided to stay more conservative.
Leverage and Lax credit standards the Hallmark of bubbles.
This buble is the worse of all of them.
Money and risk is meaningless today. Pay any price take out any loan just to get in and everything just oakie doakie.
WRONG!
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