Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.The reason for Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, lowball offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be ‘hot’. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced. This week I tried to grab listings that were more affordable than many I’ve posted in the past.
On to the list!
MLS# 2096239 – West Milford
Asking Price $189,000 (Originally Asking $219,000
Selling Price $150,000 (20.6% Lowball, 31.5% off OLP)
MLS# 2110494 – Mountainside
Asking Price $499,000
Selling Price $425,000 (15% Lowball)
MLS# 2100710 – Bayonne
Asking Price $395,000 (Originally Asking $425,000)
Selling Price $340,000 (14.1% Lowball, 20% off OLP)
MLS# 2108573 – Oakland
Asking Price $429,000
Selling Price $375,000 (12.8% Lowball)
MLS# 2087115 – Madison
Asking Price $1,250,000
Selling Price $1,100,000 (12% Lowball)
MLS# 2095044 – Plainfield
Asking Price $269,900
Selling Price $240,000 (11.1% Lowball)
MLS# 2106708 – Raritan
Asking Price $289,900
Selling Price $260,800 (10% Lowball)
MLS# 2093756 – Clifton
Asking Price $399,900
Selling Price $360,000 (10% Lowball)
MLS# 2084434 – Vernon
Asking Price $310,000 (Originally $324,000)
Selling Price $280,000 (9.7% Lowball, 13.6% off OLP)
MLS# 2082433 – New Providence
Asking Price $439,000
Selling Price $399,000 (9.1% Lowball)
MLS# 2069885 – Wayne
Asking Price $1,155,000 (Originally $1,225,800)
Selling Price $1,060,000 (8.2% Lowball, 13.5% off OLP)
And for the reader that requested Morristown. For the other readers that requested, I didn’t forget you.
MLS# 2108112 – Morristown
Asking Price $219,900
Selling Price$210,000 (4.5% Lowball)
These sales prices are still high.
There is no bursting bubble.
Prices are basically stabilizing.
Housing market moves play out in months and years, not days. I’m sorry if you were expecting mass devastation of the market overnight; even the bearest of housing bears wouldn’t predict moves that quickly. Did I lead you to believe that?
Prices are falling but these prices are NO bargain.
DON’T BE A FOOL AND PAY THESE PRICES. FIND OUT WHAT THE HOUSES WENT FOR IN 2000 AND BID 6% COMPOUNDED OVER 5 YEARS.
SAY A HOUSES IN A NEIGHBORHOOD SOLD FOR $300,000. SO BID 6% COMPOUNDED OR $398,000. THAT’S IT!
TAKE ANOTHWER 25% AT LEAST OFF THE TOP AND YOU THEN CAN BID PAYING A REASONABLE PRICE NOT A BARGAIN.
I would be interested to see someone bid according to the above formula now, then in 6 months, then in a year, etc. I wonder how long it will take sellers to abandon the fantasy.
Those Million dollar homes in madison are dropping in price quick.
As for stabalizing, I do not think it is going to happen. I still think we will see at a minimum 20% decreases on most homes. As Grim said, it takes years for this to happen. I think the whole mentality of NNJ needs to shift before we really see homes come back down to a sustainable level.
Do not forget that for the last 2 years 20-30% of the people have used IO loans to get the money to buy these homes. In my mind, that means that are predicting the values will go up, and when they do not, they will be in trouble. Trouble for them means cheaper houses for us.
Hey – it took almost 5 years for the run up in prices, so I would expect the same amount of time for prices to reduce. I am thinking of buying 5 years from now.
Okay question: In order for me to get comps on how much houses sold back in 2000, can I get this info from a realtor and if not who???
All suggestions are welcome
Prices in north Jersey did not start getting really crazy until 2001/2002 (In my opinion), I believe we will see an easy 20% decline and I think we will see that in Spring/Summer 06.
I do no thibk prices will be as sticky coming down as they were in the past, we keep refering to the last crash, but this market is/was so much different from that one.
Much higher % increase in prices, much more no money down crowd, and of course massive use of I/O and other exotic financing. Not to mention the huge amount of speculators, and the unprecedented amount of sub-prime borrowers who now own houses.
No This one is going to be much different than the last bubble collapse. I see a 20% or more correction, fairly quickly Months not years), and than continued possiible declines, and price stagnation for 10 years or more.
For myself I will be bidding 20% or more off list price come Spring of 06. If I get it fine, if not I walk away, but I think I will be successful. If I am and prices drop further, I will be OK, as I plan to stay 15 years or more, and I will have a large cash cushion. Good Luck to all.
Do your own research by digging through prior tax records. I posted up information on how to get that data last week.