Another decline in active listings this week, the rate at which sellers have been retreating is starting to show a marked uptrend..
GSMLS
(Berg, Ess, Hud, Mor, Pas, Som, Sus, Uni, War)
11/30 – 12624
12/07 – 12316
Added this week: 933 (Up from 797 last week)
Sold this week: 732 (Up from 517 last week)
Removed (Expired/Withdrawn): 655 (Up from 410 last week)
NJMLS
(Ber, Ess, Hud, Pas)
11/30 – 5771
12/07 – 5717
Hudson MLS
11/30 – 1804
12/07 – 1807
To give everyone an idea of where inventory levels have fallen to, the GSMLS levels I’m seeing this week are about what we saw in late September. NJMLS is about mid October. However, Hudson MLS is still pushing new highs weekly.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Grim,
Is there any way to identify a property that has been withdrawn from a property that was sold? I’m sure some people could interpret this a positive sign that sales are picking up. I would like to have the ammo to refute this.
You would need to have access to sales data (be it weekly postings in local news papers or some other way) or access to the MLS the property was listed under.
grim
Question for Grim and the rest of you guys….
I see a few listing removed from GSMLS in my area (summit). However the For-Sale signs still appear in front of these houses.
What does that mean?
1. The brokers are just lazy.
2. Broker removed the listings but the properties aren’t sold. And the brokers hope someone would call them!!!
How are you looking up those properties, it wouldn’t happen to be by MLS number (or a link to realtor.com or other) would it?
grim
grim,
I am looking them up on http://www.gsmls.com. And sometimes go the local realtors’ websites.
ChaoticChild
Since Husdon county towns have seen far more speculation in last 1-2 years, its possible that higher listings are explained by the fact that flippers are trying to sell. Especially in condos along the so-called gold coast.
There are SO many open houses in Hoboken it’s ridiculous. They still haven’t sold out a lot of the newer projects, and there are price reductions happening in those. Plus, places are sitting on the market for ages, with several price reductions and still no takers. I don’t think sales are completely dead, but considering there were bidding wars this spring (having been involved in one myself and thankfully losing) the market has changed drastically.
Hoboken has a great commute, but as I’ve said before, most of its inhabitants are young and should be renting. They don’t plan to live there forever. There are a lot of young married couples that have purchased hoping to sell and move out to the suburbs, but I think they’ll be burned pretty hard if they’re hoping to make money on the condos (unless they bought before 2003). I also doubt they’ll be able to rent the places for the amount they are hoping for, as my rent has gone up approximately $100 in 5 years.
A nice town, but 2 bed/2 bath condos, while cheaper than in NYC, are not worth 650k.
njgal,
you are indeed fortunate to have lost that bidding war. being a first time buyer a year or two from now, you should be able to get a place that is twice as nice in a town you’d actually want to live in for more than a couple of years. as much as this housing bubble has freaked me out watching from the sidelines in the last year, more and more I’m beginning to think that it was a blessing in disguise since it will only up the amount of supply on the market in the long run
Toll Brothers profits have soared. The real estate rally rolls onwards!
Mr. Toll was on CNBC couple of minutes back and he agrees to the slowdown in the market. A lot of speculators/investors have fled the market. Toll brothers profit soared until now, but will return to 1995 levels from now on.
TOL and HOV also guided Q1 and FY06 numbers lower than expected.
I’ve always firmly believed that homebuilder profits should never be used as any kind of predictive indicator of the existing residential home market. Residential homebuilders, especially TOL, have enough margin on home sales to be able to reduce prices and remain profitable through a downturn.
Would I invest in them? Heck no, in fact I’d argue to reload your short positions in TOL, but that’s only my opinion, don’t take it as investment advice.
jb
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