I found a link to this blog by a Hoboken realtor on Curbed.com. Ordinarily realtor blogs are pretty useless and are almost entirely devoid of content that does not portray the local market as the best area on the planet to buy a house. However, this blog, aside from advertising specific properties, does have some interesting sales data derived from the Hoboken MLS, therefore it is probably worth an occasional look for readers interested in Hudson County real estate.
(If I was a realtor with a blog though I would -1. Avoid the use of more than one exclamation point per month. 2. Allow for reader comments. 3. Consider buying advertising on a popular housing bubble blog such as this one.)
little_silvered (Guest Blogger)
shorebubble.blogspot.com
One interesting set of stats was the sales in Hoboken 2005 compared to the inventory in Hudson MLS. That seems to indicate 1 to 2 month inventory. Of course, a lot of condos in Hoboken don’t make it to the MLS at all and this probably doesn’t include new construction.
Yet all of this seems to indicate a pretty low inventory. Much as we might like to think otherwise, it may be that Hoboken or Jersey City have not slowed down ..
I don’t know about that. As someone who had at one point thought I wanted a condo, I started following several realtor sites for Hoboken. It’s not as accurate as the MLS, but for example, one site had between 40 and 50 listings this spring – it’s now at 70, during the “slow” season. Since I am so obsessed, I check all the time – nothing is moving nearly the way it used to (with the exception of things in a good price range – below 600K- and apartments that are super nice or in perfect locations).
And that realtor’s blog showed one apt. in a fancy loft building that I had been following – it sold for 775K according to her, but I know it was on the market for 819K. So I wouldn’t depend on MLS or what realtor’s say. Price drops aren’t generally discussed.
Besides, there are a huge amount of open house signs appearing every weekend in Hoboken, many repeats, and there never were before (and I’ve lived here for 5 years). I think the market is slowing and will likely stagnate or drop a bit from what I’m seeing now.
NJGAL,
I agree. Go to Craigslist for New Jersey Real estate and type “Reduced” into the search engine. About 1/3 of the hits are Jersey City or Hoboken.
According to the Realtor.com site there are 372 properties for sale in Hoboken.
This is up from about 320 two months ago.
http://tinyurl.com/bpo2f
Whether these numbers are accurate is another story.
Rentinginnj, I did it and wow. I have noticed a lot of reductions, but you know, there are only so many people willing to pay over 650K for a 2 bedroom condo in a town they plan to live in for 3 years. It’s crazy. It’s not like NYC and people just don’t get that. I reiterate that I am GLAD I lost my spring bidding war – I probably would have backed out anyway. What a mistake that would have been.
Bottom line, if you need to buy a place, you get into the market at whatever level it’s at
So you think that everyone should just toss out the fundamentals and continue the bidding wars? Then what? Do you really think this can go on forever? This is exactly the reason we are in a bubble today. This is the worst advice I have ever heard. You don’t happened to be a real estate agent?
Of course you can’t find a HOUSE for that price in Hoboken. Brownstones, which seem to be the only houses there, are well over 950K (for a not so nice one). I see your point about apples and oranges, but that wasn’t my point.
Further, my point wasn’t that I can’t AFFORD to live in Hoboken. I’m not “dumping on what I can’t afford” – I can afford it easily and could buy a place tomorrow. My husband and I both make 6- figure salaries. We have savings and no credit card debt. We’re in a great position to buy and are going to buy in a suburban town in Westchester or CT, maybe next year.
But my point relates more to your statement “if you need to buy a place, you get into the market at whatever level it’s at.” No, you don’t do that, and that’s what this blog is about – no one NEEDS to BUY a place. You can always rent. Certainly, you don’t just buy an overpriced condo with a crazy loan simply because everyone tells you that you need to. Do that now and you could lose whatever money you put it if you try to sell the place and sell at a loss.
No one cares about speculators – they get screwed or they win, so be it. But Hoboken is filled with young first time buyers who don’t know better and have it in their head that Hoboken is like NYC where 2 bedrooms can be a million dollars, and it’s not. It would SUCK to get married, buy a place at the top of the market and have to sell at a loss a few years later – what could that do to a marriage? What does that do to someone’s financial future?
Of course no one can predict what’s going to happen. We could all be wrong. But I’m glad I didn’t take that chance, because if I get screwed, I’d rather it be on an acre of land in a place my family can live for 20 years than in a cramped apartment.
I think I saw this conversation on the Kannekt boards. You can easily tell see how much over priced most Hoboken condos are by comparing the prices in the Constitution and the rents for near exactly the same apartments in the Indpendence.
Two bedrooms in the Indepence rent for $3000 per month. Two bedrooms in the constitution sell for $800,000.
Using a 30 year mortgage, 20% down and an interest rate of 6.5%, the monthly principal and interest payment is $4045.00, or $3005.00 tax adjusted (assuming 30% tax rate). The property taxes are roughly $833 per month or $583 tax adjustedand the maintenance is roughly $500 per month.
So, on a tax adjusted basis, it costs you $4088.00 to live in the Constitution compared to $3000 to rent in the Independence.
You better hope for some serious appreciation.
ngal.
you are young and you can wait. How about me and my husband we both make six figures. We moved here to Westchester a few years ago. Sticker shock did not buy. We can afford buying a million dollar place with our hard earn money but it is a big gamble that things will go downhill. By the time things get corrected we will be retired already and move out of here. All our furniture and antiques etc are in storage. What is the suggestion of level headed people out there. Not buy and leave to the kid who really will not appreciate the antiques in the warehouse but garage sale them or buy and enjoy ourselves knowing the price will go down and we will be screwed.
Is there anything keeping you here now? You could probably take a pay cut and have a better standard of living somewhere else (buy a nice house, get your antiques out of storage etc.). Why wait until you retire?
It’s called the want it now mentality. And fools want to sign up for slavery now.
Man, Real Estate has turned into such a national obsession. Its unbelievable. Its no longer a house to live, but rather a house where you stay for a few years and flip. Its a herd mentality. You get blind and stupid. Such a linear way of thinking by most people! The road signs are out there. Its not going hold on forever. The fed is determined to prick this nasty bubble and will keep raising rates until the 10 year treasury goes up till 5.5% – 6%
“The fed is determined to prick this nasty bubble and will keep raising rates until the 10 year treasury goes up till 5.5% – 6%”
I would have to agree. When one of the FED governors, for example, starts (ahem) Yellen about a bubble, you know it’s on their radar.
And what’s the first rule of investing boys and girls?
“Don’t fight the FED.”
I wanted to let njgal know that that property that sold for $775,000 was originally listed for $829,000 not $819,000 and this original listing price is mentioned in my post about that sale. You can see it on the November 14th posting. And it did close for $775,000, this can be verified in the NJ tax records. I agree that price drops should be discussed but a few months ago, we didn’t have them, this has started to happen only recently.
It’s nice to see that a realtor will admit price drops and not try to hide them. Most deny that anything has dropped. It’s the deniers that will get screwed in the long run – I for one would be psyched to work with a broker who was honest with me, even if they knew their honesty meant that they wouldn’t sell me a place for another year or so – one of the reasons my husband and I decided to wait had nothing to do with the bubble but was because we were so disgusted with all of the brokers we worked with.
And yes, the drops are definitely recent (having followed Hoboken for several months now) but I think they’re occurring because there’s only so much people are willing to pay for a condo, no matter what the interest rate is or how many granite counters are offered. I just can’t see the drops stopping – Hoboken is way overpriced right now for the kind of housing that’s offered.