The NAR released the November Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) data today.
The NAR data shows that the Northeast may actually be leading the housing bubble decline. Many had thought that it would be the west coast or southwest markets that led, but data shows otherwise.
In November, the index fell 8.3% over last month, and -8.0% over last year (seasonally adjusted).
Bloomberg is also reporting on the index decline:
U.S. November Pending Sales of Existing Homes Falls 2.5%
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell in November, a third straight decline that adds to evidence the U.S. housing market is slowing heading into 2006.
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, fell 2.5 percent to 120.6, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. That follows a revised reading of 123.7 in October and a record 129.2 in August.
…
“The extended boom in home sales appears to have run its course,” in 2006, said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in New York, before the report. “The housing market frenzy that enticed potential homebuyers to rush into purchases before prices moved still higher has now apparently broken.”
…
The November pending resales index fell in three of the four regions compared with the prior month. Resales declined 8.3 percent in the Northeast, 5.1 percent in the West and 1.9 percent in the South. Contract signings rose 3.4 percent in the Midwest.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
grim, do you know the comparison from prior years so we get some context? last year was hot so it might not be the best barometer. more like 5-7 years back y-o-y. thanks.
I believe the index is fairly new, you can find more information here:
NAR PHSI Page
The PDF on the main page contains data back to 2002 for comparison purposes, I assume NAR included the past data for comparison purposes.
Northeast
2002 – 103.3
2003 – 101.0
2004 – 109.7
Apr 05 – 120.6
Nov 05 – 93.3
grim
this is exactly what we need to get everyone on the same page that we are in a bubble. the more people hear and read about it, the more hosuing prices will fall
While I’m a firm believer in the idea that there is an RE bubble, I wonder if November numbers (at least in NJ) were pulled down a little further by the unseasonably bad weather in the lsat week or so. By contrast, December had unseasonably good weather in the last 3 weeks, so Dec sales may be better than expected.
http://www.gdc-homes.com/coming_detail.asp?c=abbey&cid=25
The builder is still going strong for 2006, 2007 plans. What do you think Grim . They are not toll brothers.
The unbiased facts show the truth. How wonderful?
These numbers are not manipulated or spun by the greedy real estate industry.