Weekend Open Discussion

Posted on January 21, 2006 by grim

Open discussion for the weekend.

Feel free to post about local observations and news, open houses you’ve stopped in to, the FSBO situation in your neighborhood, or anything else you would like to discuss.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

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12 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. grim says:
    January 21, 2006 at 8:09 am

    From Steven Roach at Morgan Stanley:

    The Irony Of Complacency

    So far, so good, for an unbalanced world — the sky has yet to fall. And the longer a lopsided global economy continues to chug along with impunity, the more the broad consensus of opinion becomes convinced that this is a sustainable outcome. This increasingly complacent mindset may be about to meet its toughest challenge: A likely turn in the liquidity cycle appears to be on a collision course with ever-widening global imbalances. This could well be a lethal combination that triggers the long-awaited capitulation of the American consumer — heretofore the mainstay of a US-centric world.

    It’s worth your time to read the whole article.

  2. chicagofinance says:
    January 21, 2006 at 9:13 am

    Grim:

    If you appreciate Roach at MS, then you might also find the program “Bloomberg: On the Economy” with Tom Keane to be very interesting. It is broadcast on Bloomberg Radio (AM 1130 in NYC) at 2PM and rebroadcast at 6PM Monday to Thursday. For whatever reason, Keane usually throws in a question or two about housing.

    If you are not familiar with the basic tenets of economics, it may seem like gobble-dee-gook. However, I’m telling you, when he has the RIGHT guest and asks the RIGHT question, it opens your eyes. It happens at least once a week.

    chicago

  3. Anonymous says:
    January 21, 2006 at 9:28 am

    Hoboken inventory continues to rise.

    MLS number is now 415 – up from 323 at year-end. Now some of these are relisted expirations and some of the on-going listings are from “west hoboken”/JC and don’t belong there in the first place.

    And this doesn’t include FSBOs.

    Heh.

  4. Anonymous says:
    January 21, 2006 at 9:57 am

    I just got out of my property. Bought in 2001 (225,000), sold it this week for 400,000. When you can sell your home for a price that you yourself wouldn’t pay, I think that its a good decision. I got $354/sqr foot which compared to other markets is pretty damn high. It only took me a week to unload it and actually had a few offers, none of which were traditional financing, meaning like the financing I took, which was 20% down, a good job and good credit.

    I now have no debt whatsoever.

    I am going to rent and sit in cash. Go to work, take my huge windfall and add to my savings…. at some point I think I can buy outright and never have to worry about mortgages or values ever again.

    Good move?

  5. Anonymous says:
    January 21, 2006 at 10:49 am

    “Good move?”

    Without a crystal ball that’s impossible to answer for sure. It’s a bold move and maybe not something I would have done (I don’t have confidence in my ability to time markets) but you’re still ahead of me since I missed the boat to begin with.

    If there is a mean-reversion (and historically that’s always happened with asset prices) you’ll be in excellent shape.

    What’s interesting from your post is the point that all your offers involved non-traditional financing. More evidence that 1) people can’t really afford today’s prices, and 2) the market is running out of ideal buyers.

  6. Roadtripboy says:
    January 21, 2006 at 11:05 am

    Anonymous 1:

    I think you made an excellent move. You made a good profit on the sale of your home and you won’t have to worry about what will happen to its value when the bubble bursts. I’m assuming that you have at minimum 175K left over after paying off your mortgage. If all you did was put it into on line savings account (like ING) you would have 188370 after 2 years! In about that time, the market should really be down and you would have a big lump downpayment on a new property.

    As a person with a great deal of student loan debt (taken out when young and foolish!), I long to be in a debt-free position. Seems to me that you are sitting pretty right now. :-)

  7. njresident286 says:
    January 21, 2006 at 11:35 am

    I was going to reply, then raodtrip boy summed it up so well.

    i think it was a GREAT decision. I think in 2-4 years, cash will be king

    my 19 year old cousin started jan 1st at a mortgage broker. he said they barely sell any houses there anymore, all they do now is refinacing and forclosures. He said the people who work there are in shock at how quickly the market changed.

    it is hard to be pessimistic on housing when you are engrained in it, i.e. someone who has bought in the last 3 years or someone who wants to buy now. it is not a position where you can really be unbiased.

    They would say the same thing about non-homeowners i am sure, but I know in my case it is not true.

    I am 25, and have enough cash to put down a full 20% on a house i would want to buy, and i still choose to rent. one of the reasons is while i rent, i get to save more money, which i hope will mean when prices go down, i can put more down on a house. my dream is to pay for it all cash, in reality I am thinking 40-60% cash and 15 or 30 year the rest.

    there is no reason to buy now, there is way to much market turmoil. inverted yield curves, rising inventory, slowing sales. the signs are right in front of our faces.

  8. Anonymous says:
    January 21, 2006 at 11:53 am

    Ameriquest Mortgage got a big can of whoopass opened on it for such practices as liar loans, etc. $325 million settlement or something.

    Between declining demand and increased regulatory scrutiny, the these kind of mortgage lenders are in for a world of hurt.

  9. Anonymous says:
    January 21, 2006 at 1:11 pm

    $354 sq ft. You are a geniuos. Congrats on your patience to wait to sell at the bitter end.
    The last of the fools are in. All down from here.

  10. trout says:
    January 21, 2006 at 2:38 pm

    You gotta love this graph.

    Home Equity Loans Fall of the Cliff
    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

  11. Richie says:
    January 21, 2006 at 3:20 pm

    Gotta love this.. was checking out homes in my town online today.

    “Call listing agent for access & creative financing offered”

    I’m going to call and pitch an MLM creative financing plan.

    -Richie

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