Nothing that you didn’t already know from reading the blog yesterday. From the Herald/Record:
Supply of unsold homes up 71 percent in a year across N.J.
“Buying a house in New Jersey this spring? You’ve got a lot more choices than buyers have had in recent years, according to a new report from an appraiser who tracks the housing market.”
“The inventory of unsold homes was up 71 percent in April compared with April 2005, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, an East Brunswick appraiser.”
“While buyers used to bid against each other for houses, now sellers are ‘in a scramble to gain the interest of buyers,’ Otteau wrote in his latest report, which was released Monday. The report echoed his findings for the first quarter.”
“Sales contracts in April ran 20 percent below the April 2005 level, and there is now a seven-month supply of houses for sale in the state, up from a three-month supply in the spring of ’05.”
“The most expensive houses sit on the market the longest. A house costing more than $1 million is likely to be on the market for an average of 12 months in Bergen County, 24 months in Passaic County, 11 months in Morris County and 40 months — more than three years — in Hudson, Otteau estimated. Those estimates are based on the supply of houses for sale in that price range.”
“There is about a six-month supply of houses under $600,000 for sale in North Jersey, Otteau said.”
There are currently 188 homes on the market in Bergenfield NJ (NJMLS)
Yes, I don’t know about all of you, but I would love to pay over 10k a year in property taxes + a 500k home in a town with a horrible school system.
Bergenfield?? LOL!
Glimpse into our future?
High-end condos’ low opening bids signal glut
Here’s a sure sign that too many high-end condominiums are going up in metropolitan Phoenix: Units at two pricey new developments are being auctioned off, and the minimum bids are half of what the homes originally cost.
Four condos in the Optima Biltmore Tower on Phoenix’s posh corner of 24th Street and Camelback Road are going on the block this month. The high-rise homes cost $949,000 last year. The opening bid for one of the condos now is $475,000.
In Tempe, three condos at the Vale development at 1111 W. University Blvd. will go to the highest bidder this month as well. The units originally cost $429,000 to $699,000. The “suggested opening bid” starts at $240,000.
Here is an interesting MLS story:
mls # 2432192
orig LP: $849,000
reduced to $699,000
“BEAUTIFUL HOME STILL UNDER CONSTRUCTION. .59 ACRE IN BEAUTIFUL NEIGHBORHOOD. POSSIBLE NEW OWNER TO FINISH. CONSTRUCTION ADN SELL AS IS. TAXES ARE 2003, BUT ARE UNDETERMINED FOR 2004”
relisted under mls #
2521411
orig LP: $599,000
reduced to: $499,900
“KNOCKDOWN! KNOCKDOWN! KNOCKDOWN! A REAL DISASTER BUT A TERRIFIC FIND FOR A BUILDER WHO WANTS TO MAKE $$$. NO REASONABLE OFFER REFUSED. 6/10 OF AN ACRE.
”
relisted under mls # as land
2605689
$449,000
“UNFINISHED HOUSE ON LAND THAT CAN BE TORN DOWN. EXTRAORDINARY BUY FOR THE LAND. OWNER MOTIVATED TO SELL QUICKLY. PRESENT ALL REASONABLE OFFERS.”
relisted under mls #
2511813
$579,000
“HANDY MAN SPECIAL, NEEDS SOME TLC, BUT EXTRAORDINARY BUY FOR LAND AND LOCATION. USE YOUR IMAGINATION FOR THIS UNFINISHED CONSTRUCTION SITE.”
Last listing was mls#
2603612
$449,000
“HANDY MAN SPECIAL. NEEDS WORK, BUT THIS IS AN EXTRAORDINARY BUY FOR THE LAND AND LOCATION. 4400SF HOUSE. RESIDENTIAL ZONE. PRESENT ALL REASONABLE OFFERS AS OWNER IS VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL QUICKLY.”
withdrawn
I now see this house under construction again. Keep in mind, these descriptions were all for the same house…hahaha
Stagflation….
Fed’s Poole: slowing economy won’t reduce inflation
If inflation expectations are rising, a slowing economy may not reduce inflation pressures, said St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole, quoted in the Wall Street Journal.
“If inflation turns out to exceed our expectations, our target range, I do not believe we can count on a slowing economy to bring inflation down, by itself, quickly,” Poole, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Tuesday.
OK everyone,
I think we’ve all finally won our argument that the housing market is heading for a major slide.
Things are sliding so fast though that we should be starting to have some concerns over what it will do to our economy. Over 20% of the U.S. GDP is tied to housing. If housing goes, so does the economy.
Houses will be cheaper, but at what price?
Things are sliding so fast though that we should be starting to have some concerns over what it will do to our economy
Well, since houses artificially appreciated in value (in some cases doubled) I don’t see prices “crashing” but “correcting”
Correcting meaning in line with what people actually make.
Cheaper houses are great if you still have a job
Despite the market slowdown, most housing experts say that North Jersey will remain an expensive market. Demand is high, because the region is close to New York, and supply is limited because of a lack of land and resistance to more development in an already crowded state.
Grim
How could you forget this paragraph, it cant happen here because were so close to NY. (-:
Doesnt every article end that way.
KL
Yes, because everyone works in NYC and it is such a great place lol
I agree that we should be quite worried about the economy, especially with a lot of recent economic growth coming from the housing sector. Plus, you think consumer spending will continue, with pullbacks in housing, housing-related credit, credit in general?
Andy
KL,
Frankly, Ms. Lynn’s swiss-cheese analysis isn’t thought out enough to get front-page billing. It’s a canned response not backed by data, and completely void of any real analysis or insight.
grim
I think housing and interest rates are just the tipping point for a big recession. I have been thinking for quite awhile that there will be a slowdown somewhere in 2006 or 2007 and now finally it seems that more people are talking along the same lines.
Andy
I’d consider a recession a “soft-landing” if the alternative was a multi-year depression.
grim
What effect on the economy, the run up in prices was in my opinion more damaging, with teh correction all the people that were involved in real estate will have to go back to what ever they were doing prior to that.
The successful realtors, and mortgage brokers will be there as always, the same with appraisers and title search companies etc.
The best thing for our economy is to cleanse this mess quickly, so we can move on. I am not saying there will not be casualities, but that is the way it goes.
Oh and people may just learn the joy of saving again.
People were going out and getting overly optimistic appraisals and taking out equity loans to pay for all kinds of stuff. Using your house as an ATM was a common term.
That’s what’s been driving consumer spending over the last few years. Comsumer spending will slow down as values go down. That, my friend, leads to a recession
minutesfromnyc: As far as Bergenfield it is over 200 if you count the FSBO’s, it is sad as Bergenefield used to be a very nice town in Bergen Co.
It is gotten to the point that some will never be able to sell beacuse of the insane property taxes.
Also realtors stter uninformed NY’ers who might be looking to this town, as they for the most part are uninformed; I have seen it happen.
Grim,
Well you know that old joke about the difference which goes something like, a recesion is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours.
I definately think a recession is very likely, but a multi-year depression, I’m not sure, but I’m worried…I think it is possible, based upon everything I have read and the confluence of many different economic datapoints, but where I’m not sure is the actual due diligence of some of these datapoints on the internet and the risk assessment. I think the risk is there, but I can’t comment on the level.
Andy
we could see a failing of banks in many states as well. Alot of banks made very risky mortgages in this market. I am an attorney with several clients who are already stating that if there houses crash and are suddenly worth half, they will just “give the house back to the bank.” These people have no savings, can’t and won’t cover a mortgage on a house worth significantly less than they paid for it. They will go bankrupt if need be.
Where do you think that will leave banks who have to now sell these houses and lose big $?
Resolution Trust Corp., Act II.
grim
Wait a minute. RECESSION !!!
The Fed’s response will be to reduce Interest Rates again, that will cause Housing to Boom again. Won’t the same receipe that Greenspan applied, will be done again??
I don’t treat Interest rate increases with great pleasure. I think they work against people wanting to buy a house more than sellers. The last 2 years have shown that though rates rose 1.5%, prices did not decline to compensate for that. I feel, raising rates will actually make House buying more difficult, as prices will not come down by same amount.
Grim,
We talked about “good” as investment last year. I bought some gold, silver and paladium and made my money — I believe you also stated that gold was a good investment.
I will probably buy gold again if it dips below $600.
I think we are already in a recession. I am just worried that we might face depression.
I sold my investment property. I own a home and I don’t care much whether the price goes up or down as I plan to live in this house.
I am just hoping for a soft landing as I am worried about the overall economy.
As for Bergenfield, I believe that only one small area went up in property tax — surroudning area of the synagogue. yes, they do not have a good school system.
ReInvestor101,
I am not sure why you so strongly believe that the real estate price will go up soon. Because the people on this blog so badly want to own the houses?
I don’t believe that the price will go down 40%. But going down 20%-30% from the high of Summer of 2005 is certainly foreseeable.
Read: CNNMONEY.COM:
Affluent Americans sour on real estate
In survey, one-third of wealthy respondents expect real estate decline during the next year.
By Christian Zappone, CNNMoney.com staff writer
June 6, 2006: 8:11 AM EDT
David,
Glad to hear you did well. I remember our conversations about it mid-year last year. While all of the precious metals did well since that point, I think palladium was exceptional.
grim
Read: USATODAY.COM:
‘Housing boom is over,’ analyst says as Pulte is latest home builder to cut outlook
Posted 6/2/2006 5:26 PM ET
DETROIT (AP) — Pulte (PHM) on Friday became the latest major home builder to lower its full-year earnings outlook as the housing market continues to cool. Its shares tumbled more than 5% to a 52-week low.
Pulte cut its full-year outlook after both Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and Toll Brothers (TOL) lowered their forecasts within the past month.
All three companies cited large dips in new orders and jumps in cancellation rates in the second quarter on top of rising interest rates and larger inventories.
Pulte, which operates in 27 states, reported preliminary new orders dropped about 29% in April and May from last year to 6,447 units from 9,128 units.
Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder operating in 21 states, had a 29% second-quarter drop in signed contracts and Hovnanian, which builds mostly in the Northeast, California and the Washington D.C. area, had about a 19% drop in net contracts.
“Buyer demand through April and May has been below expectations,” Richard Dugas Jr., Pulte’s president and chief executive, said in a statement.
Home prices should start to dip as companies offer incentives and discounts and investors who bought up many homes during the boom sell their assets, said Rick Murray, an analyst from Raymond James & Associates.
“I think it’s safe to say the housing boom is over,” Murray said.
Pulte, the largest builder of active-adult communities for people 55 and older, projects earnings of 85 cents to 95 cents a share for the current second quarter, and $4.70 to $5 a share for the full year. In April, the company had forecast 2006 earnings between $6 and $6.25 a share.
Cancellation rates for the two months stood at 27.4%, up from 14.8% in the year-ago period.
Based on the slower sales pace, Pulte forecast unit settlements for the year will range from 44,000 to 46,000 homes. New orders fell in every part of the country except the central region, which had 1,169 units, up from 1,492 last year.
The National Association of Home Builders expects home sales this year to fall to 2004 levels, which were surpassed only by those in 2005.
This year “might still end up being the second best year ever,” said Michael Carliner, an economist with the association. Much of the effect from fewer orders shouldn’t show up in this year’s earnings, he said.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Pulte shares fell $1.70, or 5.2%, to close at $31.33, Hovnanian Enterprises shares fell 91 cents, or 2.7%, to close at $32.36, and Toll Brothers shares rose 4 cents to close at $28.83.
NO ONE WANTS TO PAY an upside-down mortgage or negative home equity !!!!
All of Bergenfiedl went up after the last reassessment, the areas near the synagogues in Teaneck went up more so, and that has been a contenious issue.
The town has been on a steady decline for over 20 years, but hey its only minutes from nyc.
bergenfield is a great town.
depends what language you speak.
lots of diversity.
taxes,, not to worry you can make the house into a two family.
Grim,
how about opening a new discussion about good investment opportunities while people are waiting for the real estate price to come down?
Future buyers probably have some money reserved somewhere so that they could buy houses in the future.
If I were to buy a house, I would wait another 3-5 years.
delford,
I didn’t realize that the tax went up for the entire Bergenfield area. Thank you for the info.
Someone I know is a school teacher in Bergenfield. He told me that the parents are to blame for the bad school system in Bergenfield.
I pass by Bergenfield almost every day and I see so many teenagers hanging out all over the places at all hours of the time. When my son is in a car with me, he invariably asks me, “Dad, why aren’t they home studying or doing some sort of extracuricculum activities?”
seems like we’re revisiting the stagflation era without the wage growth. most people’s standard of living is going to go way down over the coming 10-20 yrs. higher prices, higher taxes, flat to negative wage growth, deteriorating gov’t services, etc. The gov’t will predictably flood the economy with cash and this will only compound problems. Not a depression, just a slowly deteriorating economy
skeptic,
It sounds like history repeats itself. Isn’t that what British Empire went through?
I guess Sun is setting in American “empire”.
Wait a minute. The Fed’s response will be to reduce Interest Rates again, that will cause Housing to Boom again. Won’t the same receipe that Greenspan applied, will be done again??
I agree. The Fed will cut rates once it’s clear that we have entered into a recession, that speculative excess has been driven out of the market and that inflationary pressures have subsided. It’s the Feds policy not to save a bubble, but to mop up the mess afterwards.
However, while the housing bubble may have gotten its start with low interest rates, housing mania; the promise of riches, an early retirement and ever increasing prices eventually took over. Now, the herd has changed direction. Housing isn’t the flavor of the month anymore. Did you notice that tech stocks didn’t reinflate after the Fed cut rates in 2001? Why? Psychology has changed. Housing prices after the late 80’s/early 90’s bubble fell despite major rate cuts.
At best, rate cuts will only serve to cushion the fall of housing prices. The question is where will the next bubble be?
as of today a good place to be
is in cash.
That is the trillion dollar question.
Dow broke through 11k..
grim
in bergenfield not only do you see
the teenagers milling about,
but what about the mexicans
rentinginnj,
that’s the $64K question, isn’t it?
figuring out where the next bubble is.
in 90’s, it was the tech stock.
2000-2005, housing market.
Grim, I think you should create a thread for “Next Bubble”. :)
While we’re on the topic of empires, here is an interesting read:
“Empire of Debt : The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis ”
Bonner & Wiggin
grim
pesche22,
holding cash is a good position. But holding cash means that the value just goes down and down, right?
I don’t remember seeing mexicans but I do see a lot of Filipinos all over Bergenfield.
If I were to buy real estate, I would buy in Teaneck as Orthodox Jews are moving in heavily from Brooklyn.
Grim,
I don’t remember where but I read somewhere that Sun is rising in China while Sun is setting in America.
cash, yes if you want the hedge
buy gold silver
however, be prepared for the volitility
investor David: Yeah that happened in 2005, a lot of other areas went up in 2005 too, the ten year reassessment that all municipalities have to conduct.
From what I ahve seen and heard there was absolutely no rhyme or reason to the revals in many towns. many of the old timers who have not done updates in years got slammed, while other biggr updated houses did not get hit as much. The one constant thing was siz of property, the bigger the propert size, the bigger the tax increase.
New Milford just finished theirs, and I am hearing that it is ugly as well.
Bergenfield’s decline started around the mid 80’s it was accelerated when a number of high scchool students, committed suicd there, I belive it was 5 or 6/ The ironic thing was only one of the students was from Bergenfield, and the others were from other towns, but they did it in Bergenfield. Peoples perception of the town plummeted.
Also changing demographics became an issue, and I have heard from some former residents that people are renting out rooms in single family houses, I do not see any turn around for that town.
this could be a long summer,,,
the markets are soft,,, nothing
working right now. housing short, was a good one.
these days in the market are not
good for housing.
we need a rally
investor David Orthodox Jews are also buying in the area of BErgenfiedl that borders Teaneck, as the synagogues are within walking distance. This has caused tension in both towns, as theser residents do not use the schools, and have been accused of voting down school budgets and expansion referendums in both towns.
Some say the next bubble is already here in the commoditites market, esp gold……
Andy
pesche22,
I had a few discussion with Grim about precious metal last summer and I made some money off gold, silver and palladium. Now, I am out of it and plan to get back into gold if it dips below $600.
I am looking for the next “bubble”. :)
Yeah, but according to real estate agents (and Michael Bloomberg) this isn’t so.
It is still such a rosy economy where everyone has 20% down and able to purchase a $800,000 condo or $650,000 starter home.
If you say you are looking for under $400,000, they think you are either an undesirable person (read: lower class or Minority), or not worthy of their time.
Check out craigslist. Everything (rent or sale) is still high & rising higher.
Even in the dumpy parts of Jersey City, one bed condos are going for over $350,000.
You don’t want to live in a house for $500,000. Probably a tear down.
investorDavis: I do not think people will have to wait 3-5 years to purcahse a home, I belive the end of this year and into next year, will see a sizeable correction (20%. Prices can go down just as fast as they went up, we are about to see that happen.
Yeah, but the condo boards only want single yuppies from the suburbs (not from the NYC boros) who make over $200,000 a year and have 20% or 30% to put down.
Their ‘ideal’ buyer according to the NY Times.
Let’s keep the discussion clean and on-topic.
grim
delford,
I received a new assessment notice for my house at the beginning of this year. Still waiting for the “new” rate — hoping that they would cut in half as the new assessment value went up about 80% (last assessment was about 5 years ago).
I didn’t know all that history behind Bergenfield. I know about the fraud in the city hall of Dumont and something about Feds are managing the city? I don’t think Dumont is much better than Bergenfield (maybe just a little?)
What about Palisades Park? Many Koreans moving in and Italians moving out, and the price went up and up and up. and many single family houses are renting out rooms also in Palisades Park.
Check out craigslist. Everything (rent or sale) is still high & rising higher.
It’s a free country. You can ask whatever you want. It doesn’t mean you‘ll get it. If people were still regularly getting these prices, why is inventory exploding and sales falling off?
Actually, I don’t care about being off-topic, just keep the comments clean.
grim
Grim,
Are you referring to me regarding, “keep the comments clean”?
Yes, Bergenfield has some nice areas…but just like Paterson…dont send your kids to school there
ok grim off-topic then –
Addison Wiggin was on bloomberg radio promoting that book last week. I was already at home but couldn’t leave my car.
felt like an idiot afterwards hanging on his every word as if he was some kind of prophet.
very interesting interview though. been thinking about getting the book.
Delford,
I believe that after this summer, the price will go down considerably. However, I believe that real estate price will bottom out 4-5 years from now before it goes up again.
I have a commercial property in the middle of orthodox jewish section and the price actually went up rather than going down lately.
No, not at all, just a general comment out to everyone.
Whenever race, creed, or color becomes part of a topic here, the discussion tends to deteriorate very quickly.
I somehow feel like I’m burning the Bill of Rights when I delete posts, so I want to avoid doing it if at all possible.
grim
Grim,
I hope that I didn’t make any racial comments offending anyone. If I did, I apologize.
But somehow, real estate price is so closely related to the ethnic composition of the area.
palisades park,, a community that was given up to the koreans many
years ago.
the main drag looks like s.korea.
rooms have been rented for years
has been a big problem .
they had to bring the state in
a few years to help out.
the town has been overun..
bergenfield not to far behind.
boy this thread has the makings of a new record huh grim?
please refrain from posting useless comments especially the wannabe-commedians so we don’t have to skip thru too much.
Bob hasn’t even posted yet…
here we go , the race card.
useless comments
perfect example above
please refrain from posting useless comments
useful comments are objective
some folks just cant take the truth
the housing stocks are getting
killed today.
so,, perhaps the discounts will
begin to show up at some of the projects that many of us feel are
overpriced.
minutesfromnyc
here’s a comment from you
Yes, because everyone works in NYC and it is such a great place lol
for the 100th time, we get it ok
No one has made any kind of improper comments.
Discussing the ethnic composition of an area and how it relates to the local market is perfectly fine. In fact, in many markets I believe the ethnic composition of the area to be a very important factor of those market. To deny that would just be silly.
grim
Investor David; Iam not surprised that the property went up in that area, I have some orthodox friends and that BF?Teaneck area is very hot for them right now, as it meets their needs as a community.
Dumont is a similar situation to BF old blue collar town that has declined over the years.
I do not want to stir any controversey but these towns were well in the process of decline, before the demographics changed, the new popualtion did not bring down these towns, now you can argue that the declines may have been more pronounced as some of the population was very low income, but again these towns were well into decline, and the new population just purchased where they could afford.
The problem now is that the property taxes are so high, that many cannot afford the homes, and so are resorting to renting out rooms etc. Also the sub-prime lenders are heavily involved in both BF and Dumont.
absolutely agree.
after all, birds of the same feather…
anywhere in the world – asians generally want to live among asians. same with hispanics, russians, you name it.
where’s the racism?
pesche22,
Yes, palisades park has many koreans but I believe that still it’s the Italians who control the city hall.
And the price of Palisades Park went up so high. A question: did the price of Bergenfield go up as much as Palisades park?
in pal. park they had to impose
penalties for using the garage
as living areas.
and knocking out fire walls
so they could spread out the
cubicles.
anybody remember?
Delford,
I am keeping that buiding in Teaneck for my retirement fund. In that business area, I think there are only 3 buiildings which are not owned by orthodox jews.
I am going to wait until they are tired of seeing gentile owning a building in the middle of their community so that they get “rid” of me by paying me a high price — I can dream, right?
Is there a big distinction between Dumont and Bergenfield?
italians control city hall.
are you kidding?
you got korean councilmen,,and i believe one running for Mayor.
italians are long gone, except for
a very few older folks.
From a macro perspective, recessions are good to expel the excesses from the system. I can’t think of a better thing than to have the housing industry suffer a recession. I know it’s a big part of the overall economy, but I can’t see it bringing on a depression. Even if 50% of the construction industry loses their jobs, they’ll find work in other places (if they choose). Otherwise, illegal immigrants will just keep pouring over the borders to fill those jobs.
Anonymous said…
minutesfromnyc
here’s a comment from you
Yes, because everyone works in NYC and it is such a great place lol
for the 100th time, we get it ok
Just illustrating that this NYC is so great B.S. is the basis for every 2 bedroom 1 bath cape cod on a busy street listing for 500k
I think one of the best examples of tight-knit communities keeping an area in tip-top shape is Passaic Park. The transition is incredible once you make your way into the orthodox community. You wouldn’t know you were even in Passaic County, let alone Passaic. The area directly surrounding Third Ward Park is a great example of this..
I’ve often wondered why this area hasn’t seen strong gentrification and renewal, especially when you consider the train located so closely.
grim
pesche22,
I remember reading about it in newspapers. people living in cubicles in Palisades park.
The price of the commercial properties in Pal. park is out of sky – almost resembling Hoboken.
pesche22,
I didn’t realize that.
I thought that Pal Park was controlled by Italians. I guess that is being changed or already changed.
its been many years my friend.
the koreans control pal park.
pesche, its not that people can’t take the truth its that it is not a NEW observation, korean today, irish, italian, german 60 years ago.
Actually the newer immigrant groups bring with them a quicker time to capitalizaiton than ever before.
Its the immigrants that have maintained “good public school districts”
at the end of the day it is a class issue, like someone posted – if you can’t afford 500K you are sub-class, but the problem is that a 5K mortgage payment is a 240K salary and more like 300K for cost of living (taxes, etc)
I don’t make that – i don’t think many that do can afford to spend time drooling on this msg bd.
so stop baiting and everyone else should grow up and realize that its not marxist to understand that you are as worth as the $ you have otherwise its to the lions.
please back to houses and neighborhoods
we have some serious liquidation
going on in the markets.
this has to effect housing.
their are 76 condo projects on the
drawing board in las vegas.
this cant continue.
Dumont is probably a step up form BF, but not by much, it also has a lot less rental housing, which unfortunately casuese problems.
That area in BF bordering teaneck will saty popular, as long as Orthodox people continue to migrate there. if you building is desireable for their needs, I would think they would over pay for it, just to secure access to it.
Pal Park started to turn Korean in the lte 80’s, into the early 90’s, and has continued that way. However, the more establisehed and educated in that community have moved on, they may still own business there, but hey are now living in towns like Tenafly, Cresskill Norwood.
Pal Park also has a large Hispanic population, many of them illegals, the police in pal park are having a difficult time with this, and it has been the scen of pro and anti immigration demonstrations.
now now delford,,,
you going to be accused of the
race card.
fkern,
I think the problem is that people making $100K is buying over $1M houses using exotic loans – 1% interest only payment, ARM etc. with no down payment.
minutesfromnyc Do not ever change If I had a dime for every time I heard a realtor orresident say, but itsclose to NYC so somebody from NY will buy it.
News flash Jersey people, NY people also like safe quiet streets, and lovely cul-de-sacs, they do not lsut to live backing up to rail road tracks, and they do not think it is convenient to be right next to BUrger King or Dunkin Donuts, but why, its only minutes from nyc, and you peole should be used to noise and traffic and dirt, talk about calling the kettle black.
MARKET TIMERS – grrrrrrrrrrrrr…
pesche22 said…
as of today a good place to be
is in cash.
11:09 AM
grim said…
That is the trillion dollar question.
Dow broke through 11k..
grim
11:10 AM
Delford,
The area I own my building, it’s one person who owns everything — current councilman and a former vice mayor of Teaneck.
and thanks for the update in Pal Park.
What do you think of Demarest and Closter and Alpine?
investerdavid,
I used to live in Demarest and Closter area. It is a beautiful area. I consider it better than Tenafly. The school is also ranked top 10 in jersey like Tenafly.
However property tax is high like the rest of Bergen County.
The only problem is that there is no convenient way to commute to NYC (I work in NYC).
There are also a lot of affluent Asian immigrants moved from Fort Lee and Pal Park area to Demarest and Closter area. I bring it up because it seems to be a concern with some folks regarding having Asian or immigrant neighbors.
I hope this helps.
chic. finance
whatever you do dont buy gm
thats going to be a china play
the fxi is up today
CF,
Spot on, you’ve always been a voice of reason around here.
grim
The school is also ranked top 10 in jersey like Tenafly
It is amazing…the kids are not getting any smarter either!
anon at 12:34pm,
I already live in this area — Demarst and Closter. I like it and I plan to be here for at least another 10 years. Yes, my tax went up from $3K to $13K in 6 years.
I also like Tenafly since it’s closer to the City.
I was thinking about moving to Englewood Cliff since it has very low tax compare to Closter/Demarest. My kids want to go to Boarding schools so it doesn’t justify to live here and pay high tax.
Minutesfromnyc: I believe that 98-99% of the Northern valley Demarest high school graduates go to 4 year college. I think top 30 kids usually go to Ivy schools.
How about this plan for Hoboken schools?
Hoboken schools chart new paths
Superintendent of Schools Patrick Gagliardi, who is retiring next year, has spearheaded a plan to create a two-tiered educational system, with one geared to students seeking vocational careers and the other catering to students going on to four-year colleges.
…
“We have to raise our expectations here to meet the new emerging community,” Gagliardi said. “We cannot subject all the kids to SAT prep, a lot aren’t college-bound. They are going to vocational school where they don’t need to take the SAT.”
Under the terms of the new system, Demarest Middle School will become a junior/senior high school, replacing the current alternative school at the Boys and Girls Club and with the ability to serve 125 students in grades seven through 12.
…
But Beth Rubin, an assistant professor of education at Rutgers Graduate School of Education in New Brunswick, said the system Hoboken wants to create can hurt students on the lower rungs of the educational spectrum.
…
The shuffling of schools is part of a larger effort by the district to attract students from the more affluent community.
…
Hoboken also falls behind the state average on SAT scores and percentages.
…
But under the new arrangement, SAT scores would soar because many of the poor-performing students won’t take it.
investerdavid
I have family live in Englewood Cliff. It is a nice area and closer to the city.
The reason tax is relative lower is because Englewood Cliff does not have a High School.
However I think the town has been overrun with McMansions in the last few years.
I think Fort Lee, Englewood Cliff is starting to look like Northern Queens.
minutesfromNYC said…
The school is also ranked top 10 in jersey like Tenafly
It is amazing…the kids are not getting any smarter either!
I agree however school ranking is one of the reasons to value a house. It always has been and it always will.
anon @ 12:34
anon at 12:34,
I just sold my investment apartment in Fort Lee and took me about 10 months.
Since my kids want to go to Boarding schools, I thought about moving to Englewood cliff for a while.
grim said…
How about this plan for Hoboken schools?
Hoboken schools chart new paths
Grim: There were bigger write-ups in the past week’s Hoboken Reporter and other sources. Ultimately, it is half a solution. It serves the current student body well, but it shows no credibility on the “emerging population” front.
You have highly paid school bureaucrats that are under pressure to fix something, but they do not have:
1. any meaningful idea how to fix it
2. the guts to say that the real solution is to hire from outside someone with “credentials”
Anything short of a MEd or PhD from one of the major private LOCAL world class institution [e.g., Columbia], will be looked upon with laughable disgust.
It sounds like snobbery, but in reality, if you are paying Aged- Porterhouse prices, why should you settle for steak and tails at Red Lobster.
investor David: Alpine of course is Alpine, rareified air indeed.
I like Closter and Dmearest, although I think Demarest is nicer.
However Closter Demarest are not in the top ten as far as schools in NJ, Tenafly may still be, but not Closter and Demarest.
I know Northern Valley is one of the top ten HS’s in Bergen County, But I belive Closter or Cresskill it escapes me at the moment is not part of Northern Valley, one of them has their own HS.
Me personally I prefer northwestern Bergen, towns such as Wyckoff, Allendale, Franklin lakes, also Montvale, the property tax sitiuations in these towns are much better, and they are not as crowded as central and eastern Bergen Co.
One further point not to get myeslf in trouble, but one poster said all immigrant towns have better school sysytems, and that is a very unrealistic comment to make for a number of reasons. It depends on the town, and the group.
For Instance as discussed BF, Pal PK, large immigrant communities, poor schools. Tenafly,Demarest, large immigrant groups, goood schools.
You also have the situation where in the better towns for schools some groups flock to those towns, becasue the schools are good, its not that they have made them good.
This is fine until you get a situation, which unfortunately is common, wherby people who do not live in these better school towns send their kids to school there as they have family or friends who live there, and use their address to establish residency. Sadly this practice is employed largely by immigrant groups, and it creates resentment and hostility among long time residents. You aslo have situations in these better school towns, whereby garedn apartment that wer formerly populated by seniors or singles with no kids, now house immigrants with chidren, this increse crowding, but aslo the multi-family units are not taxed at the same leve as S/F homes,a nd as such the residents are getting the benefits fo the good schools, but not paying for it with property taxes.
Many of the Bergen county towns with good schools are now also forced to conduct residency checks every year which are time consuming and expensive, and it breeds more hostility, as all are subject to this requirement, and with property taxes sky high residents are getting more and more upset. Also there is the issue of fariness.
Every year there are many children that are asked to leave, as they are not residents in that town, the numbers can range from 1 all the way up. One school in Passaic county last year had 75 kids enrolled in the school who were not residents.
I do not mean to offend any one, but these are the dynamics that are occurring in many towns today, and they do affect real estate, even if in only some cases it is perception.
The perception many years ago was that BF was not longer good, so people avoided it, and the perception became the reality.
closter kids go to Norther Valley
at demarest.
No comparison of the schools in
pal park, bergefield, to
Northern Valley. different world.
closter kids go to Norther Valley
at demarest.
No comparison of the schools in
pal park, bergefield, to
Northern Valley. different world.
then it must be Cresskill that has its own HS, I knew it wsa one of the two C’s
The kids from Closter, Howarth and Demarest go to the Northern Valley Demarest.
One of the kids in my neighborhood gradauted from Northern Valley 2 years ago. She was ranked 124 out of 270 graduates. She went to BU.
I heard the story about some kids were asked to leave the school as they were not living in our town, rather living with their aunts and uncles.
And I know some people who were “hosting” kids from other countries to go to school here, charging them between $3k-$4k/month to “take care” of these kids.
I know the sentiment of people who were upset that we have to pay for these kids’ education. Funny thing is that these are the rich kids from other countries.
how’s Teaneck school system?
I know that Real estate price is closely related to the school system.
Does good school system mean your kids will go to a better college?
There are kids from Northern Valley Demarest who go to not so great college while I know a kid from Palisades park who went to Cornell.
how’s Teaneck school system?
Much better than Bergenfield
Does good school system mean your kids will go to a better college?
Nope…but it could mean the difference between dealing with gang activity as is the case with Bergenfield schools
minutesfromnyc:
good point.
so anyone care to make a prediction on next “Bubble”?
For those waiting for the fed to reduce interest rates to save this thing – dont keep holding your breath. Understand that our government is spending like drunken sailors, and it is only going to get worse. A recession from the falling housing market will obviate the ability to raise taxes too much, so the only alternative is to issue debt. Problem is our issuing debt is now very dependent upon foreign investment. There is only so long China is going to buy our debt at current rates, or be able to buy it at all. We will have to search for new buyers, and this will likely entail higher interest rates.
oh well, i guess so people are just bitter.
i could not have imagined my
kids going to a high school in
pal. park..
they dont speak korean.
or spanish
I just figured that China will stop buying US bonds and start investing in Europe.
US $ is becoming really worthless.
pesche22,
My son speaks Hebrew as there are many kids from Israel. I am actually happy that he is learning Hebrew. :)
I wish there were some Chinese kids and Spanish kids in my neighborhood so that my kid can learn Chinese and Spanish. :)
norther valley was great.
dow down over 100
buliding stocks really taking
a nose dive. might be oversold
in here.
hov tol phm dhi even levitt (lev)
getting killed.
and the selling continues into the close.
so ,,, not a good day for housing.
even selling off the mexican
cement stock (hxm)
investor David: Oh I am sure it happens across the economic spectrum, but it is not right, and it hurts the folks trying to play by the rules.
The funny thing with the schools in some to the so called more affluent towns, is the fact that many of the kids are not in many many cases any smarter than other kids, but again it is the whole perception thing. Many times rich and poor are the flip side of the same coin, but as one poster said you are paying for the security.
Then of course you have your wannabees, who pretend they are affluent, you know the kind with the big house expensive cars, but no furniture or curtains on the windows.
Many of those wannabees, who in my opinion were instrumental in driving up housing prices, will be washed away as this bubble collapses.
investorDavid: You are a gentile who speaks Hebrew, that is very interesting.
del,
the kid can say hello and goodby
come on.
pesche: Just thought it was interesting. It is a tough langauge to master.
its a lib bs story.
you know it and so do i
they cant help themselves
For any of you who think we’re being racist:
When my grandparents came from Germany and Poland in the 1920’s they decided to live in towns where there were predominately other Germans and Polish. BUT,
they abandoned their native language and learned ENGLISH. They raised their children in ENGLISH and didn’t expect every sign and recorded phone message to be in their native languages. The assimilated into their respective towns.
But nowadays, you have the Koren PTO in Paramus (and I’m sure there’e something similar in Pal Park) who precludes you from joining unless your Korean. How is that any sense of community? How is that helping the kids learn that everyone is equal? Why does the Principal or Superintendant allow this? Its the parents as a whole that should be supporting all the kids in the school.
Here’s somethng I just found “The CKPO is the Tenakill and Hillside Schools’ main interface with the Korean community. As an extension of the PTO, the CKPO helps facilitate the orientation of newly settled Korean parents into the Closter school system and encourages them to participate in school events and causes. The CKPO also helps reduce language barriers that can interfere with effective communications between administrators, teachers and parents.
Nice right!
And here’s another thing to think about… my nephew who went to Northern Valley Old Tappan was a pretty good student, but all the Koreans blew him away. If he had gone to Hackensack HS he probably could have been in the top 10 and went to Harvard but being among the superstudents (Asians also attend school on Saturday and I’m sure they go to Kumon) in Old Tappan, he was ranked in only the top 25% of his class.
Like someone else said on this board, your child has a better chance getting into Harvard if you move to Montana.
Karen
delford,
I don’t speak Hebrew but my son does his two best friends are from Israel.
Oh, and I recently met a Teaneck mother who was moving her daughter into a Catholic school. She was sick of them not being able to sing Christmas songs anymore.
Karen
Teaneck is an incredibly PC town, to the point of being silly.
I didn’t realize that singing is outlawed.
Being in top 10 at Hackensack or even #1 will not get a kid into Harvard. I should know. I was a professor at one of more prestigious Universities many moons ago.
I thought we had a clear separation of church and state. Wait, didn’t Bush change that? :)
I know the mayor of Teaneck and I have a lot of respect for her.
anoymous: Actually the Ivies are looking to diversify their student body.
I failed to see anything wrong with CKPO’s message. Aren’t they trying to help immigrant kids to simulate into American Society?
Immigarnt parents whosegregate themselves and their children, do a great disserviceto those children. This is seen later in College and in the real world, where they have no choice but to interact with all different people. Many struggle with this.
Ahh, but being #40 at a magnet school will get you into Cornell ;)
But then again I should not just inc;ude Teaneck, we ahd a situation a couple of years ago, whereby non-Christian kids did not like the fact that for events and activities around the holiday season, the two teams of kids wore Christmas colors one red, one green, of course that long time tradition was eliminated, now thats PC For ya.
chicagofiance,
But being #40 at a magnet school won’t get a child into Princeton or Yale. :)
Cornell? probably. :)
And here’s another thing to think about… my nephew who went to Northern Valley Old Tappan was a pretty good student, but all the Koreans blew him away. If he had gone to Hackensack HS he probably could have been in the top 10 and went to Harvard but being among the superstudents (Asians also attend school on Saturday and I’m sure they go to Kumon) in Old Tappan, he was ranked in only the top 25% of his class.
So lets see if I understand this right. The same Koreans you claim are not assimilating are beating your nephew in school and are apparently working harder than him. How terrible and underhanded !!
I vote for celebrating every holiday for every religion — less work days for all of us. :)
My kid still wish we celebrate Hannukah rather than X-mas. He thinks that he will get great presents for 8 days rather than just one day. :)
David,
My point is. . . they are being racists for not joining the society that already exists. Why can’t they try to assimilate themselves into the society they CHOSE to live in and move into, rather than segregate themselves even more.
And its not singing that’s outlawed, she had a problem with not being able to sing Christmas songs at CHRISTMAS time.
Karen
When my grandparents came from Germany and Poland in the 1920’s they decided to live in towns where there were predominately other Germans and Polish. BUT,
they abandoned their native language and learned ENGLISH. They raised their children in ENGLISH and didn’t expect every sign and recorded phone message to be in their native languages. The assimilated into their respective towns.
It is largely an urban legend that previous generations of immigrants abandoned their native language and learned English, or ENGLISH if you prefer. I would suggest reading about all the German language schools in Pennsylvania and Maryland in the 19th century, for starters.
Those super Korean students at Northern Valley Old Tappan will have hard time getting into Harvard as Harvard wants Diversity.
My point is. . . they are being racists for not joining the society that already exists. Why can’t they try to assimilate themselves into the society they CHOSE to live in and move into, rather than segregate themselves even more.
How do you know they’re not joining the society that already exists ? And if they’re beating your nephew in school, how can you claim they’re not joining that society ? You seem to have a very selective vision of what “joining a society” means.
grim ghost,
Add Brownsville in Texas into that list — an old German town which was quite isolated during WW II.
I work with other alumns to contact prospective applicants to Cornell. While I have no insider knowledge [and certainly NO influence] the whole discussion about schools is almost irrelevant. Show me an involved, patient and supportive parent [no helicopter parents], and I will show you a successful student.
Bottom line – who cares – let’s all hope our kids grow up to achieve what makes them happy.
InvestorDavid said…
chicagofiance,
But being #40 at a magnet school won’t get a child into Princeton or Yale. :)
4:53 PM
Not true. There were people lower ranked than me.
Karen,
I didn’t realize that they were not joining the “existing society”. From what you wrote, they just create an organization which will make the assimilation easier.
Are you saying that a person cannot sing a X-mas song X-mas time or any time at a Teaneck school?
Can’t she just sing at the hall way or outside at the playground?
chicagofiance said: Show me an involved, patient and supportive parent [no helicopter parents], and I will show you a successful student.
I agree categorically.
I just want my kids to be happy and pursue their dream.
P.S. maybe those lower ranked kids were the kids of legacy? or connected? :)
Bush went to Yale and he scored 1180 on SAT.
No the kids were more well rounded than me.
Out of a class of 187, 40% of the kids went to Ivies or Stanford.
If you add MIT, Berkeley, UCLA, Rice, Chicago, Michigan, Williams, Swarthmore, you end up at almost 60%.
chicagofinance,
Where was this school at?
I love Berkeley, Stanford and Cal Tech.
come to think of it, I went to those schools. :)
INVESTOR DAVID
INVESTOR DAVID
I guess they don’t teach grammar there.
Ha,Ha,
He went their and lives in New Jersey. Never
I want to move to Passaic.
Anyone Have any ideas?
chicagofinance,
Where was this school at?
http://www.hchs.hunter.cuny.edu/
Why would there be a recession if house prices fall? Falling house prices equates to less mortgage which in turn equates to more investments and spending.
We could avert a recession if the sellers agree to reduce their prices quickly.
Don’t we sometimes have to talk about race? Seriously, afterall, a mixed neighborhood, is worth less than an all white neighborhood. Its not really a race issue, but just demographics and how housing prices relate to it.
Lets quit being so soft aye??
Seriously, afterall, a mixed neighborhood, is worth less than an all white neighborhood. Its not really a race issue, but just demographics and how housing prices relate to it.
You must tell that to the residents of Alpine, which is 25% or so Asian
so which is it? Do immigrants bring prices down in your community or pose as competition for your kids in the schools? Just trying to figure out why race is important to you. getting mixed messages from this board.
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