Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads “# Comments”. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone. For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
Ameriquest Parent Sees Steep Drop in Earnings
Profit at Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and its affiliates plunged 81% last year, reflecting a brutal price war over loans to higher-risk borrowers, rising interest rates and the company’s agreement to pay $325 million to 49 states to settle allegations of predatory lending.
Orange-based ACC Capital Holdings Corp., the privately held parent of Ameriquest and its sister lenders, earned $257 million in 2005, down from $1.34 billion in 2004, according to copies of its annual financial statements obtained by The Times. Revenue fell from $4.13 billion to $3.67 billion.
…
The steep discounts, part of an industry battle for market share at a time of rising interest rates and slowing housing markets, drew an unusual rebuke last February from Countrywide Financial Corp. Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo, who accused rivals Ameriquest and New Century Financial Corp. of Irvine of being “irresponsible” spoilers of the industry’s profitability.
The new motto from realtors: “MOTIVATED SELLERS, PRESENT ALL OFFERS.”
There’s a house having it’s 7th open house this weekend.
See you in 2007.
truly “motivated” sellers will get offers. there’s no mystery why most sellers are getting none: their prices are ridiculous.
“irresponsible” spoilers of the industry’s profitability.”
I smell bail-out.
2008?
Pat
NO HOUSE VISITS NOT BIDS NO NOOTTTING!!!!!!!!
LET THE GREEDY MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS STEW IN MISERY!
THEY WANT TO RIP YOU OFF.
BE A FOOL AND BUY A HOUSE NOW.
GO AHEAD.
YOU WILL BE A BAGHOLDING FOOL FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. HOPE YOU DON’T HAVE THE SELL OR CAN’T MAKE THE SLABE MTG PAYMENTS.
BABABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses
Bob
The new motto from realtors: “MOTIVATED SELLERS, PRESENT ALL OFFERS.”
What a SHAM!
This is after they Piled on a 5-10% price increasde from PEAK 2005 House prices!
Tell’em NOOOTTING!
Starving realtors will be feuding with grubbing sellers.
Watch
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
shut up bob.
In lending, there are two levels…prime and subprime.
Guess where the real snakes of the business lurk.
Lenders like Ameriquest are one of the reasons why things are in their current state
“When does it stop?
anon 3:07, it’s already reversing. the more interest rates rise and prices flatten and decline the more the psychology changes and further feeds the cycle. almost NOTHING i’m tracking is selling today without at least 1 reduction in the price, most of them multiple and they’re still sitting. 7.5% interest rates will absolutely slaughter what’s left of this market. the spring market is going to be awful for sellers and agents.
Anyone watch CNBC last night. They had a so-called housing special. What a joke! The panel consisted of the CEO of Century 21, the CEO of a Mortgage company, the nit-wit pseudo economist from the NAR and some other joker. According to them everything will be fine. Just keep buying. I wonder how much they ponyed-up to pay CNBC to block out the hour. Basically it was an info-mercial for the foolish
“This is after they Piled on a 5-10% price increasde from PEAK 2005 House prices!
bob you’re absolutely right. i’m seeing this all over and it’s laughable. a few agents have been telling me they can’t even get anyone to look at the houses because the prices are so laughable when in reality the sellers will accept far less than original ask. sellers are stupid. they think i’ll ask real high so i can negotiate down the buyer will think they’re getting a great deal off list. doesn’t work on ‘retail price’ clothing it won’t work here + the comps show otherwise.
NO STORE VISITS NOT BROWSING NO NOOTTTING!!!!!!!!
LET THE GREEDY MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS STEW IN MISERY!
THEY WANT TO RIP YOU OFF.
BE A FOOL AND BUY JEANS NOW.
GO AHEAD.
YOU WILL BE A BAGHOLDING FOOL FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. HOPE YOU DON’T HAVE THE SELL OR CAN’T MAKE THE SLABE CREDIT CARDS PAYMENTS OR TRUST FUND WITHDRAWLS.
BABABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOYcott $300 JEANS
Escape from NJ said…
Anyone watch CNBC last night.
If they all have to get on national TV and address the issue, there’s definetly things going on.
If they weren’t worried, they’d all be at the country club or getting a lap-dance somewhere
oh ho!
=======
Treasuries Post Worst Slump Since 1984 on Fed Rate Concern
June 23 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries posted their worst slump in more than two decades as traders pushed yields to where they expect the Federal Reserve to lift its benchmark lending rate at policy meetings next week and in August.
[edit]
Half-Point Increase
Interest-rate futures contracts show traders are certain of a quarter-percentage point increase in the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent when policy makers meet next week, and are boosting the odds of a 50-basis-point move at the gathering.
Bob,
Readers are starting to question if you’re retarded or something.
Pretend like your’re writing the President and it’s real important that he readis ot the next time. Maybe people will read your posts with more respect then
Bob,
Readers are starting to question if you’re retarded or something.
Pretend like you’re writing the President and it’s real important that he reads it the next time. Maybe people will read your posts with more respect then
Ok, so I can’t type either
ok open discussion!!
where does Bob live?
a) with his mother
b) with his grandmother
c) renting a studio in a slum
d) owns a studio in a slum
what does Bob do?
a) security guard.
b) dropped out of college. no job
c) nothing. no job
ROFLMAO!!
I say B & C on Bob. should we put a wager on this? LOL!!
C’mon! It’s obviously “c” and “a”!!! lol! lovin’ this!
Bob,
Please tell us your life story
We’re all dying to hear…..
Bob:
You are obviously married and intelligent, and able to stay single-mindedly focused on your objective (until, normally / like the majority of men, someone puts distraction in front of you).
Highly normal.
But based on your use of exclamation points and narrative in the 3rd person, you have had some mediocre level of unresolved frustration in the distant past. For men age 40 and older this is often due to lack of the availability of behavior-directing medication in the 60’s and 70’s.
For men under 40, I’m not sure what may be happening.
Bob accesses the site from the Cayman Islands. He is sitting on a beach earning 20%. He worked at a dot-com incubator, and sold out all his holdings in January 2000.
Think Mark Cuban.
chicagofinance said…
Treasuries Post Worst Slump Since 1984 on Fed Rate Concern
What really floors me is that the fed hasn’t used home prices to calculate inflation. Had they done so, the inflation figures obviously would have been much higher than they are.
I think the fed is now set on popping the bubble to bring the housing market under control…although they’ll never admit it
C & A
Bob = C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A C&A!!!
LOL!!!!
Booooyaaaaaa!!!!
Yeah, x-underwriter… I’m with ya.
Combine with the passing of the new bankrupcty laws.
What gives? Fed realizes in early 2005 that they gotta get those flippers out of the real estate market, and get some money back into equities.
NO MAAS!!
Bob is not a security guard!!
Stop it!!! all of you!!!
Bob
This post has been removed by the author.
Franks & Beans, Franks & Beans
Bob is actually David Lereah’s “Rainman” Brother
I just moved a bunch of my 401k assets into money market accounts for the next 12 months.
It’s going to be a wild ride for everything and I figured I’d lock in at least 4.5% rather than lose money. I don’t even think your money’s safe in the bond market. Who knows where the rates will head?
I’m holding steady, but diversified.
Although with my discretionary/non-pension money, I’ve been doing a couple of risks with some breadwinner stocks that are very very unpopular right now, but have great earnings.
let me tell you there’s nothing abnormal with “Bob”. my teenage nieces and nephews were just talking about this kind of exercise. apparently “Bobs” are pretty common in kids forums. it’s kinda like trolling where the thrill comes from getting people to believe your madeup character.
this “Bob” is just a bored college kid.
I have a little crush on Bob.
ahhh!!! hopefully people will finally stop responding to Bob.
you’re busted Bob!! go look for another board.
I’m a huge fan of Bob. Bob has been a nail in the coffin for me to not buy a house, read literature, educate myself and NOT BUY PROPERTY. I love his message and I especially love that he pisses off bagholders, agents and greedy sellers. It’s our time now.
I welcome 2007/2008 with a fervor. When do you think we’ll be hitting the 40k mark with inventory. Bring it on.
BTW, my favorite hobby now is to go to open houses (how can you not pass one these days on any walk through Hudson County)and use the bathroom, then leave. It’s exhilarating. I’m thinking about incorporating it with a bar crawl. ;-)
BA BA BA BA BA BA BA BOYCOTT HOUSES!!! You bet I will.
-frustrated with Hudson County and greedy agent sons of…
Open relationship
$300 Jean
Bob
what next?
Is Bob wearing a $300 jean hoping for an open relationship?
Leave Bob alone. Every court needs a court jester.
I forgot.
b) with his grandmother
b) dropped out of college. no job
I vote for B & B.
or is that B Or B?
B o B?
anon @ 5:24 pm,
don’t forget to eat their food.
I don’t know about Hudson county, but in my area, all the open houses offer great finger food.
I was watching a late night re-run of the Simpsons a couple of nights ago, and one of the characters yelled: “boooooooyahhhhhhhh.”
Bob, they’re stealing your material!
:)
A house around the corner from my house was bought at $920K last October.
Now, I see that house on the market for $1.08K.
I wonder what this guy is thinking.
Is he on something or smoking something? Maybe I should just walk up to him and let him know that I am a Berkeley graduate.
maybe he will share it with me? :)
Is this Bob guy for real?
I love his message and I especially love that he pisses off bagholders, agents and greedy sellers. It’s our time now. I welcome 2007/2008 with a fervor. When do you think we’ll be hitting the 40k mark with inventory. Bring it on. BTW, my favorite hobby now is to go to open houses (how can you not pass one these days on any walk through Hudson County)and use the bathroom, then leave. It’s exhilarating. I’m thinking about incorporating it with a bar crawl. ;-)
BA BA BA BA BA BA BA BOYCOTT HOUSES!!! You bet I will.
See, these are the types of comments that support the idea of hate, resentment and class war. Who will step up and repudiate these comments?
I don’t think I’ll hold my breath on that one.
DON’T GIVE IN THE GREEDY AND CHEAPSKATE BEARS!!!
DON’T LET THEM LOWBALL YOU AND STEAL YOUR HOUSE. MAKE THEM BID AND PAY DEARLY!!!!
IF THEY DON’T WANT TO PAY, LET THEM REMAIN HOMELESS!!!
SEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLL AT TOP DOLLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
REinvestor I think you are the one who is hateful. Not Bob. This is a forum to discuss ideas, not massage egos. If your ox is getting gored it is because of the excesses in this bubble runup, and perhaps the fact that you “bought in”. Bob is the comic relief and the “ID” of the blog but nevertheless it is not hateful. A little schadenfreude maybe. OK alot schadenfreude , but who can blame him.
REinvestor arent you on the wrong blog? I find it strange that you hang out here when clearly no one is listening to your ridiculous commentary.
another 70 houses added to the lisiting today .. then new number is 31,428
http://www.gsmls.com/
Real-Estate War Traps Consumers in the Middle
The Wall Street Journal Online
By James R. Hagerty
Full-Service Brokers’ Tactics To Rebuff Discount Rivals Sometimes Hurt the Customer
http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/broker_1.html
I do not know which facet of this down market I will enjoy more: (1) seeing the unemployed brokers go back to being housewives; or (2) watching the ARM holders sweat and twist in the wind as rates slowly increase. Life is good. Cheers.
EMU
Bob is the comic relief and the “ID” of the blog but nevertheless it is not hateful. A little schadenfreude maybe. OK alot schadenfreude , but who can blame him.
People don’t enjoy seeing others misfortune if they love them. Schadenfreude requires that you dislike or hate those who you wish to see misfortune visit.
I do not know which facet of this down market I will enjoy more: (1) seeing the unemployed brokers go back to being housewives; or (2) watching the ARM holders sweat and twist in the wind as rates slowly increase. Life is good. Cheers.
More giddiness and hate supportive of the idea of an impending class war. Why does anyone want to see masses of people unemployed or “sweating & twisting in the wind” unless they hate these folks? The question I’m grappling with is why the hate?
reinvestor,
Why do you want to see a whole generation of hard working people unable to buy a decent home for their families, just because they do not want to destroy their futures with suicide mortgages?
Why the hate, re?
jw
This whole RE market is getting sickening. There are so many lies on top of more lies and greedy realtors.
The realtors (the true ones that have been in the business for the long haul) – need to let the sellers know how to price their homes right, be competitive with their commissions, and realistic about market conditions.
These are hard requirements for those who feel entitled to $30k-50k for just getting a listing or showing a house.
Let’s see realtors with experience, integrity and at a least a college degree with some economics intelligence. Sellers and buyers are putting a lot of money and trust on the line otherwise.
REinvestor, you take things too personally.
It’s just business.
Don’t get upset that prices are dropping, and properties are sitting, it’s just a real estate cycle. You had your up cycle, now we have our down cycle.
You should be happy that increasing numbers of American families can afford homes, and live with less debt.
Don’t resent American families.
I just hope you’re not the guy I noticed holding his 7th open house this weekend.
Passenger stabbed on NJ Transit train
NJ Transit was reporting no disruption of service along its Jersey Coast Line this evening after one passenger stabbed another as a train was pulling into Long Branch station.
“There’s been no impact to other service on the Coast Line,” NJ Transit spokesman Dan Stessel said.
The stabbing occurred shortly before 4:30 p.m. on Train 3251 when one passenger stabbed another in the wrist as the train pulled into the station.
Stesssel said the unidentified victim was taken to Monmouth Medical Center, which is near the station, while the other passenger was taken into custody by NJ Transit police.
He had no further details on the incident.
That’s odd, it wasn’t in the NYC subway!
Who is Bob?
Bob was one of Jim McGreevey’s childhood priests. Today, Bob is an active writer posting to many blogs out of frustration. He just did not get the man!
Even though I don’t share the same opinion of ReInvestor101, I don’t think we should attack him. He is entitled to his opinion.
And it’s always good to hear the other side.
I kinda agree with ReInvestor101 when he points out how a lot of folks “root” for other’s loss. And I don’t feel it was Realtors who inflated the market, that ALL Realtors are greedy and evil and blah, blah, blah.*
But I glaze over these comments, as I do yours (ReInvestors101) because they do not add anything to the housing discussion. (I especially ignore the “My bother/friend/uncle was talking to a realtor/broker/seller/buyer and…” stories.) I prefer concrete data even if it comes from sources I feel are suspect (yes, the NAR). I prefer personal experience stories and not third-hand anecdotes. But, that’s me.
But tonight is different. Maybe it’s the weather?
So ReInvestor101, if you do not know by now that many on this blog are frustrated by the run up in prices that are not backed by sound financial fundamentals… then you’re a little slow.
So instead of narrowing in on all the inane posts how about adding to the debate, since you disagree so much, with some concrete data or personal experience? I can go on with stories (well, through my uncle’s wife’s sister who heard… (I keeeed!)) of people who thought they were geniuses because they made money during the run-up in prices but didn’t get out in time and are now sweating. But that doesn’t add anything to this running discussion of how some feel prices are grossly inflated (me) and how others feel they aren’t (you?).
So, ignore the noise and tell ME why house prices aren’t inflated, why they shouldn’t stop increasing, stay flat or decrease, why the constant build up in inventory shouldn’t effect prices negatively and how the many who took out ARMs, let alone I/O and negative amortization loans won’t effect the future of the housing market.
*I’ve met them all. Sincere types, “bad car salesman” types, trying to make a buck types, old timers, newbies, etc… You just need to remind yourself what the person is doing for a living (living=eat, pay bills, support family) and remember that they are humans. You choose who to listen to and MAINLY who to ignore. Profession has nothing to do with it, it’s just life. Who ever bought a car because the salesman thought it was a good idea? If you have, well I’m sure YOU learned a huge lesson!
G’nite!
Geez-a-loo! Sorry, that was a long one!!
Okay, back to being serious.
What really floors me is that the fed hasn’t used home prices to calculate inflation
The Economist has been blasting the Fed for 5 years now over their inflation calculation. They argue that the Fed’s mandate of “price stability” should include asset prices, such as houses.
It’s funny. Now that rising home prices are finally leaking into the core inflation calculation 5 years after the fact, everyone wants to dismiss it as “funny math”.
I’ve put almost everything in short term Treasury Notes, mostly 28 day @ 4.78%, some 90 day.
More secure and more liquid than CDs, better rate than money market, exempt from state income tax. Easy to buy with no commission via treasurydirect.gov.
Any thoughts on seller thinking?
Subject property:
$320,000 listed 6/20/06 3BD/2.5Bth
Desirable twnhs development
All listed comps same section:
Comp history:
1. 3/2/06 283,000 3/2.5bth
2. 2/14/06 242,500 2/2
3. 1/23/06 285,000 3/2.5
4. 1/17/06 284,000 3.2.5
Is the pre-sale market up on a townhome typically 13% higher than comps to allow for negotiation room?
Is this a reasonable starting price?
Would a bid of $250 be a lowball at this point, based on $284 comps, or simply a reasonable offer? Is lowball strictly related to asking price?
I’m trying to apply the logic elsewhere on some of the listing agent’s properties.
Thanks,
Pat
Get a set!
Offer 175
That’s what you think its worth.
Greedy money Grubbing Sellers disregard lowball comps in setting their prices. just listen to their reasoning when you bring it up.
They feel they are entitled!
They are entitled to 35% LESS!
If you are a buyer and you have a down payment. YOU ARE IN THE DRIVER SEAT!
WHAT’S THE DAMN RUSH ALL ABOUT. THE COOOLAPSE HAS JUST STARTED! FRIGGEN WAIT AND SAVE $100,000’S.
Bababbaabbabaaba
BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott RIPOFF HOME PRICES
Bob
It’s funny how REINEST thinks those that feel housing is a ripoff are rooting for the demise of others. Well he is the one that keeps talking real estate up eventhough it’s a ripoff and maybe influencing some to pay absurd ripoff prices. Then a year or 2 later find themsleves in bankrupcy.
..Seeing foreclosures starting in Mendham Chatham and Chester. No area is immune to this cooolapse!
Use your friggen NOODLE!
If the 30 yr mtg rates have increased by 20% to about 6.50-6.75% you need to drop house prices accordingly!
BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!
Bob
Ok, let’s offer 75K instead.
Noticed on for sale by owner sign. Last couple of weeks sign was in middle of yard….now it’s literally on the street.
A LITTLE DESPERATE?
NOT!
THE ASKING PRICE IS INSULTING!
LET’EM SIT AND ROT AND THINK ABOUT IT!
BOOOOOOOOYCOTT HOUSES
Bob
Another miserable weekend for Greedy Money Grubbing sellers and Starving Realtors.
Liten to this
according to the National Association of realtors existing home inventories are up more than 30% than a year ago….this is the biggest such rise since the NAR started keeping track in 1983.
Seeing record levels of inventories in towns i have followed. The the Greedy Grubbing sellers jcontinue to ask INSULTING PRICES.
Send’em a harsh message NO MAAS No Visits No interest No Bids NO NOOTTING!
Bababababa
Bob
As Bob is not one of his so called Greedy, Boomer, retiring, money grubbers, I guess he’ll be content selling the property he claims to own at 1998 prices.Right?
It’s called greed and attitide. I don’t like what i see from my fellow homeowners some of which think they are geniuses and second think they are entitled!
A few do not have to rely on our house to bail us out for retirement.
Bababababa
BOOOOOOOycott Houses!
Bob
Anybody know where they are doing an open buffet at an open house? I figure I could get lunch, use the bathroom…again, then leave.
BOYCOTT HOUSES. hell ya.
rock on Bob!
-frustrated with Hudson County and open houses that don’t have any “food while you look”
Market forces will take care of pricing. Who cares if someone rants and raves about prices? At least Bob backs up his taunts with facts and knowledge. He’s smarter than the fools who have outpriced houses for sale on the market for hundreds of days.
unrealtor,
Could you find the last sale record for 2283848?
What is a fair price for it?
It next to a busy road and a lot of school buses are messing around over there.
Thanks
So Bob you will be willing to sell at a 1998 price because you’re so much of a better moral character than any of those who are currently trying to sell for the maximum the current conditions will bring?
http://www.1100kfnx.com/
Bubbleheads listen up!
2283848 sold in ’92, no other info on public records. here are the sellers comments.
JUST REDUCED! INCENTIVE TO SELLING AGENT. 3 MINUTE WALK TO TRAIN AND TOWN. Renovated large 4 bedroom colonial, attached 2 car garage, walk up attice, walk out basement.
sounds like a flip and if they’re giving an ‘incentive’ to the selling agent that means it’s overpriced and they’re desperate to move it meaning fat profit. i’ve seen a number of these and it’s always the same story. sit back and wait for more price drops. you’ll probably see another $40-$50k haircut on this before it piques any interest.
Hi. I’ve been reading the blog for some weeks as I am going to be going to Jersey City next week for a job interview (I live on the west coast and have never before been to the NYC area). Can any of the frequent posters (or Grim) suggest suburbs near Jersey City that would offer a good mix of the following:
affordable rental housing
quiet family environment
good schools (I have 2 children, 5 & 4).
Based on past posts on this and other blogs I gather that places such as Lyndhurst and Clifton might be good. Some rental ads also suggest there are condos near the Liberty State Park (east side of express way (78), but looks like an industrial area on google maps. Is there new development there???
I plan on taking the trains around Hudson and surrounding counties to get a feel for the area. Any suggestions on suburbs or locations in Jersey City that I should consider would be GREATLY appreciated. Thank you.
Anonymous
I lived in Clifton for 30 years, not exactly “quiet”. Good schooling for the kids until middle school, after that you want to get out. The high-school is overcrowded and they’ve always had problems with kids from paterson and passaic sneaking in the school system.
Clifton is a “city”. Once 3:00-6:00pm come, most of the main roads are parking lots. You’d be better off going a little more west (little longer commute). The rents in Clifton depend on what you’re looking for, apartment or house. The commute to hoboken is 25-30 minutes on the NJ Transit line.
I now live in Pequannock (11 miles northwest of Clifton) and love it here. The commute to Hoboken is 55 minutes on the train, so still reasonable. I used to take the train to hoboken with the lightrail over to jersey city, one-way trip time was about 1 hour and 10 minutes. Now I commute into Parsippany (15-20 minutes each way).
If you want to stay in the general Clifton vicinity, I’d look at some other towns such as Rutherford, Lyndhurst (as you mentioned), and some others.
-Richie
Anonymous said…
It’s funny how REINEST thinks those that feel housing is a ripoff are rooting for the demise of others.
Bob
6/24/2006 08:51:23 AM
Bob:
REINEST sounds like a verb.
The act of having carnal relations with a real estate professional that is a member of your nuclear family.
Yes?
How far on the train you willing to go? If you’re only looking at one year rental, you might want to pay a little more and get a really good family neighborhood so you can get to know the area.
Craigslist has a lot.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/
So ReInvestor101, if you do not know by now that many on this blog are frustrated by the run up in prices that are not backed by sound financial fundamentals… then you’re a little slow.
So instead of narrowing in on all the inane posts how about adding to the debate, since you disagree so much, with some concrete data or personal experience?
Normally, I approach discussion boards with a degree of insouciance. Unfortunately, the inanity exhibited in certain posts brings out another side of me. It’s particularly frustrating that no one bothers to upbraid these posters. Instead they’re praised.
In any event, you ask a fair question and I’ll answer it. Northern NJ has always been at a premium versus other areas of the country. There are areas in the south and the Midwest that have seen little, if any, run up in prices. The question to ask is what is fundamentally different about these areas versus NNJ? The fundamental difference revolves around two things; income and demand. Median income is higher in this area and people want to live in this area in close proximity to Manhattan. This coupled with out migration from NYC to NJ serves to create a base demand that will always be there to support real estate valuations in NJ.
This out migration has resulted in NNJ becoming an extension of Manhattan. Those who lack the income to afford the new price levels are going to have to arrive at some tough decisions. That decision really revolves around whether they can afford to remain in NJ. This simply means that some people will have to move to make way for the newcomers who can afford the area. (As this reality sets in on people, an undercurrent of resentment is becoming evident.)
The current increase in inventories has to be put in context. We’re coming off a period of record tight inventories and we all knew that conditions were homes were “thinly traded” weren’t sustainable over the long haul. As inventories move toward normal levels, buyers will have more choice. There’s plenty of pent-up demand to support pricing. I’m not suggesting that some don’t have their homes overpriced, but anything priced well will be just fine. There will be no drop to 2001 prices as some have suggested here.
As to the situation with longer term rates, it’s been expected that they would rise. Afterall, we couldn’t maintain the happy state of affairs where we’re running a record trade deficit with dollars being recycled into our securities markets while the dollar weakens at the same time. Long term rates had to rise, but even so, they’re still at historical lows. During the real estate price run-up of the mid to late 80’s, interest rate levels were a lot higher, yet high rates didn’t affect pricing and demand. So, it remains to be seen if what, if any, impact higher long term rates will have on the market. Sure, maybe some marginal buyers will be left out, but those at higher income levels will be fine.
reinvestor101,
May I ask you a question?
Where are you currently looking to buy? commercial? residential? duplex? single home? apartment? condo?
And may I ask what will be the determining factor in purchasing a property for you?
First of all, count me as a fan of Bob! Like others here, I have a Ph.D. and tend to be impatient with mean spirits or inane self-promoters. Bob offers relief from the sanctimonious b*llsh*t of the mainstream media and mainstream realtors. Bob tends to be right and well-informed. So, Boooyaaaaa Bob!
Anon 11:00am; think about Hamilton Park or Van Vorst in Jersey City. People who want suburban security and segregation need not consider JC, and I wouldn’t recommend the Liberty Park area to anyone at this point–it simply hasn’t turned the corner yet. If you look hard, however, and have some luck, you can get a duplex in a brownstone in Van Vorst or Hamilton Park with lots of character for $ 2000-2500, including utlities, and save yourself the cost and time and headaches of the commute. Both areas have streets that have a lot of charm and are fairly quiet; both areas also subject to some traveling rift-raft that passes through, but the cool thing is that both areas are so racially and ethnically mixed while being professional, friendly, and down-to-earth. JC is less provincial that most of the suburbs and there simply are fewer fakers there.
The schooling issue in JC may be tougher to conquer. There is a charter school or private school coop (not sure which it really is?) downtown called The Learning Community that many send their kids to and seem to love. I’m not sure about costs and you’re too late for September at this point. The application process happens in the spring. I’ve also heard that the new Elementary and Middle School near Van Vorst is decent, especially on the elementary level because they don’t bus kids in from tougher areas of JC. From what I can say, JC has a tremendously good magnet academic high school (McNair) but it is more of a challenge to find good schooling in JC on the elementary and middle levels.
Good luck!
WM
Reinvestor said: “There will be no drop to 2001 prices as some have suggested here.”
I think you are right. Based on my experience in the last housing bust (early to mid 1990s), there will be a drop to 1998 prices. I don’t see a better market for housing anytime soon. Many economists, in many countries, are predicting an economic slowdown for the second half of the year and 2007.
2283848 sold in ’92, no other info on public records. here are the sellers comments.
JUST REDUCED! INCENTIVE TO SELLING AGENT. 3 MINUTE WALK TO TRAIN AND TOWN. Renovated large 4 bedroom colonial, attached 2 car garage, walk up attice, walk out basement.
sounds like a flip and if they’re giving an ‘incentive’ to the selling agent that means it’s overpriced and they’re desperate to move it meaning fat profit. i’ve seen a number of these and it’s always the same story. sit back and wait for more price drops. you’ll probably see another $40-$50k haircut on this before it piques any interest.
6/24/2006 10:55:23 AM
Richard,
The seller himself is the selling agent. I think he bought this house in 2005 and I really need to know at that price he got it.
reinvest-
You make some interesting points..but I have a question…why are people moving out of NYC? Unaffordable housing I presume.No? So it sounds like you are saying the folks who are moving to NJ make less money than NY’ers but more money than the ones who currently live here and frequent this board. Your statement also means that average household salaries should increase over the next few years in NJ as our richer NY friends settle in causing the rest of us to leave for “cheaper” greener pastures. These people should have the income to pay exorbitant mortgages and property taxes. I guess Corzine has no worries…the migration effect of all the rich from NY will take care of budget problems in trenton..hell let him increase property taxes too…why just the sales tax? Only time will tell whether you are right and NJ is getting “richer” not “poorer”. I am not holding my breath!!
BM
>> June 23, 2006 – This week, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) kicked higher by twelve basis points (.12%) to 6.88%, according to the nation’s leading editorial survey of mortgage rates and terms. Five-one Hybrid ARMs trotted into territory once the province of fixed rates, climbing a stout 14 basis points to close the period at 6.55%. Fixed interest rates haven’t been at this level since the cusp of summer in 2002; the Ten-year Treasury was at levels comparable to today, while the Federal Funds rate was at 1.75% and falling. Fed Funds currently stands at 5% and is expected to be lifted again next week
Further comments from Anon 6/24/2006 01:37:02 PM :
When I present these facts to Realtors, they brush them off, with the following reasons:
–Its different this time.
–The 30 yr is your grandfathers mortgage
–Boomers are buying second houses because of the insecurity caused by 9/11
–Population grows but land doesnt
–Wall St profits will keep the tri-state RE from correcting
–The buyer demand is too high
–No ARMs no problem, we have 40 and 50 yr mortgages
etc etc.
Its sad that no one ever talks about the relationship between the Currency markets, Central Bank Policy, and Mortgage Rates. We in the US have been extremely lucky that we have a currency that is the reserve of the world. Unfortunately, the liquidity binge that has been perpetrated by the Fed over the last 5 yrs has infinitely eroded the value of this reserve currency. When every creditor to the US starts doubting the value of this fiat paper, the packaging of this reserve will start peeling off. Isnt it ironic that our largest creditors are the Russians, Chinese and Saudis? Does anyone realize that the day these autocratic/dictatorial/communist regimes decide to stop buying Treasuries, and start putting their money into Euros, Gold, etc.. the 10 yr will shoot up by 2-3% within a matter of weeks? Its a fact that this reallocation of $ assets has already started. The 1.25 Euro-USD is a peak which may not be breached for a decade, most currency traders have factored in 1.5 Euro-USD as a certainly. Given that the 11 billion fraud at Fannie is just the tip of the iceberg, only the Creator knows where this market will head when foreigners stop buying MBS and USTs….
I guess this debate can go on and on..but these are facts that most ignorant Realtors, Sellers and even Buyers dont ever consider.
An excellent post.
anon 1:37
In the last little bubble vs todays monstrous bubble Condos in NNJ fell 50% in price. Most risk in condos. Houses fell about 25% so 30% is very very likely. 2001 prices here we come!
1998 i doubt it but bubbles overshoot on upside and DOWNSIDE!
Bababababa
Bob
“Could you find the last sale record for 2283848?”
Via domania.com:
Address: 29 Old Short Hills Rd
Closed: May 2005
Price: $610,000
“What is a fair price for it?”
That depends on what you mean by “fair.” Do I think it will be worth $100,000 less next year? Yes.
“It next to a busy road and a lot of school buses are messing around over there.”
Indeed it is, a house across the street (not as nice, though) sat for almost a year before it finally sold:
Address: 22 Old Short Hills Rd
Closed: Apr 2006
Price: $420,000 (originally listed at $575,000)
29 OSHR is a nice house (building), but it’s location challenged, as you note.
Another comp:
Address: 20 Old Short Hills Rd
Closed: Apr 2003
Price: $379,000
Anon 6/24/2006 01:55:59 PM:
Note – the changing monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is the party that is going to knock the stuffing out of the back end of the curve. If you want to sell the Ten year off through 6%, monitor the progress of the Japanese economy [NOT the Nikkei!], and the BOJ’s response.
That said, your friends are in a state of denial if they have the option of fixing out their mortgage and choose against doing so now.
By the time they will have their hands forced by the ARM reset, their fixed rate choices will be much uglier. Further, if they inevitably are forced to sell their home, it will be into a substantially weaker market than today.
They should cut and run, but people cannot envision doomsday, so there is no tactful way to warn them without losing a friendship.
Good luck to all of us.
chicago
How the War and 9/11 Changed the US:
Maybe Greenspan had no other option but to reduce the Federal Funds rate to 1% when faced with a collapsing stock market and the shock to the economy by 9/11. Lets even give the benefit of the doubt to Bush for the war, he had to go into this mess due to reasons that will never become public..eg..the alleged Euro Oil Trading engaged in by Saddam and Iran. Its the after effects of these events which in my view will be felt by Americans for years and years to come. The liquidity excess sparked bubbles in every asset class that exists in the world. Inflation is just an after effect. Consider this, the Inflation figures presented by the Govt are so well massaged, that when they talk about a .2% yoy increase in the core rate, it probably has a real world effect in prices of over 20%. And so the catch-22 faced by the Fed: Raise rates to kill this inflation, or kill the economic growth caused by the bubbles.
Unfortunately, the kind of pain that will be required to be prescribed the world over, to return to fiscal normalcy is beyond the realm of the powder-puff politicians who rule the globe. Our own Politicians have betrayed us, by choosing to completely ignore the deficit in favor of the expensive pork barrel earmarks that they get thrown at by an administration keen to hide its failure over the war. Can there be a bigger sense of fiscal irresponsibility exhibited by the representatives of the people? Instead of taking steps to reduce the deficit, they trade favors with the Administration to dig us into a deeper hole!! Hide the failure of a costly war by spending even more egregiously!!
Consider the choices diff countries have to face:
The US has to choose between a collapsing housing bubble and a run from the Dollar.
China has to choose between accelerating local inflation and decelerating exports due to either currency appreciation or rate increases.
Euro has to choose between growth by inflating their M3 or recession by allowing the Euro to rise humongously against the dollar.
It seems Wall Street has priced in all these scenarios, but everyone knows that fat tails are never accounted for. It will be the occurence of any one of such fat tails which will spell the worlwide economy to stall in its tracks.
>> REINVESTOR101 said… This means, of course, that the USD’s position as the world’s reserve currency will remain assured, notwithstanding attempts by Iran and Russia to establish some alternatives (they have to be stopped).
“Our own Politicians have betrayed us, by choosing to completely ignore the deficit in favor of the expensive pork barrel earmarks that they get thrown at by an administration keen to hide its failure over the war.”
Which Democrat politicians have proposed specific solutions to cut spending? How many bridges and buildings are named after the likes of Robert Byrd, over 200?
And what is all this “failure over the war” nonsense? Which US wars have been more successful, with fewer US soldiers killed? Try learning a bit of history.
In case you may have missed it, there can be no security in America, Europe, or any other ‘infidel’ country until the Mideast joins the modern world. It will take decades, cost Trillions more dollars, and thousands more US lives, much like the Cold War.
A deficit isn’t the end of the world, sometimes it’s needed to achieve various objectives.
Investors Business Daily:
Aided by surging tax receipts, President Bush may make good on his pledge to cut the deficit in half in 2006 – three years early.
Tax revenues are running $176 billion, or 12.9%, over last year, the Treasury Department said Monday. The Congressional Budget Office said receipts have risen faster over the first eight months of fiscal ’06 than in any other such period over the past 25 years – except for last year’s 15.5% jump.
The 2006 deficit through May was $227 billion, down from $273 billion at this time last year. Spending is up $130 billion, or 7.9%.
The CBO forecast in May that the 2006 deficit could fall as low as $300 billion. Michael Englund, chief economist of Action Economics, has long expected a deficit of about $270 billion this year. Now he thinks there’s a chance the “remarkable strength in receipts” will push the deficit even lower.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20060612&view=1
And if you think we have a ‘deficit problem’ today, wait until an islamic terrorist detonates a nuclear device in Times Square, New York City.
Everyone ready for the wild ride next week?
6/27
Consumer Confidence
Existing Home Sales
6/29
Q1 GDP (Final)
Initial Claims
FOMC Policy Statement
6/30
Personal Income/Spending
(Savings Rate)
Michigan Sentiment
Chicago PMI
I promise that there will be no lack of action to discuss next week.
REINVESTOR101 said… Our government is not going to let housing and our economy be destroyed notwithstanding the Fed’s jawboning.
Re:
I was going to say that you “had me at hello”, until you threw this one on the end.
These neo-fascists wearing a religious cloak really screwed up, but luckily they were supply-siders, and the economy seems to have blossomed rather nicely.
Ultimately, I say that until votes are on the line, nothing is going to happen. If we can slide through the next 120 days [leading up to mid-term elections] without any apparent societal ecomonic carnage, then no one will interfere with “Benny and the Feds”.
Jawboning? He’s going to back it up with a big whooping stick.
chicago
unrealtor said: Which Democrat politicians have proposed specific solutions to cut spending? How many bridges and buildings are named after the likes of Robert Byrd, over 200?
Anon 4:43:
A friend told me last week that her house is in preforeclosure.
But there will be those sacrificial lambs. Always. Even if the media blared a different truth, the lambs would hear their own truth, you know this. And when the lion comes, the lamb will still lay down.
And there will be strong ones to help them. Cash on the barrel people that are quiet and nondescript and waiting. Not Angelia Jolie -sorry – but they are there.
People who tried to give cautions to others who would listen. Not all Boomers and Xers were raised to be Consumers.
I woman I know who is 87 tells me of the Great Depression. There were people who helped. And the depression survivors built new economies. They became great savers, and great makers of babies.
What happens if ten large metropolitan areas experience a depression? What would the inhabitants look like at the end?
Worse off? Better?
Would the money flowing into those tragic areas of the world dry up, and the people recover on their own terms?
I sound like a horrific person, don’t I. All the money from the West – all the aid from those vainglorious – hasn’t stopped a million deaths.
Here’s an interesting topic that also appears here every so often:
“Are There Moral Implications For Selling At The Top?”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=935
This response was a gem:
“I’m a bleeding heart who paid too much for my last two houses because I wanted to help out the sellers. And I know that if a young couple like the one described tried to buy a house from me now I would try to discourage them, just for sound financial reasons if nothing else.”
CF,
“Benny and the Feds”
I love the reference. BaBaBaBenny and the jets.
Escape from NJ:
Are you an RE shill?
The CNBC housing special was incredibly bearish. I was astounded at how honest they were.
Even david Lereah said house prices would come down.
Suze Orman said it was an incredibly BAD market.
Were you not listening or are you a shill?
How the War and 9/11 Changed the US:
Maybe Greenspan had no other option but to reduce the Federal Funds rate to 1% when faced with a collapsing stock market and the shock to the economy by 9/11. Lets even give the benefit of the doubt to Bush for the war, he had to go into this mess due to reasons that will never become public..eg..the alleged Euro Oil Trading engaged in by Saddam and Iran.
Look, we know the freedom for the Iraqi’s or ridding the world of their weapons of mass destruction was BS. There was no alleged Euro oil trading by Saddam, that was a fact. He unexpectedly made out like a bandit and it was not in our interest to allow someone sitting on the second largest reserves of oil in the world to be putting the USD in the position of having its nose pressed up against the window looking in. Truth be told, that had to be stopped. Of course, it’s difficult to explain the reasoning to the general public, so it’s easier to put the reasoning in terms that are more readily understood. Make no mistake however, alternative currency and trading systems that are being pursued by the likes of Iran, Russia and Venezula are a problem. There’s no doubt that they’re working in concert with each other and against our interests. Something is going to have to be done about it or we’re going to have a slight problem.
It’s not an AND, it’s an OR. The government has to make a choice between saving housing or the economy. They will choose economy.
Anon, you’re presuming that there’s a large difference between the two. I’m not.
Ultimately, I say that until votes are on the line, nothing is going to happen. If we can slide through the next 120 days [leading up to mid-term elections] without any apparent societal ecomonic carnage, then no one will interfere with “Benny and the Feds”.
Jawboning? He’s going to back it up with a big whooping stick.
Chicago, votes are on the line. His bark is worst than his bite. He’s not going to destroy the economy
I did some extensive analysis using historical data, to see whether it is difficult today to buy a house, or historically there have been any different periods. See the graphs and charts at the attached link.
NJ Historical Home Price as percentage of Average Personal Income
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest and calculated Percentage of income that will be needed to buy a house that costs 1000 times HPI value.
So in 1975, to buy house that costs $29,550, would require 31.38% of average personal income in NJ.
The WORST Year, 1981. To buy house that costs $43,200 would require staggering 53.35% of average personal incle in NJ (interest rate was 16.63%)
The BEST Year, 1998. To buy house that costs $109,540 would require just 23.54% of average personal incle in NJ (interest rate was 6.94%)
Coming to 2006, It would cost 38.12% of Average Personal Income to buy a house worth $244,010
So in conclusion, though we are finding today’s house prices very high, they are not that high compared to what folks had to pay in 70’s & 80’s. At least we are back to same time as in 1991.
My point is don’t think we are in different situation today. We have been here before, just prior to 1991.
More comments & analysis appreciated.
Look, we know the freedom for the Iraqi’s or ridding the world of their weapons of mass destruction was BS.
Sorry but this is total BS. All leading democrats and Clinton officials stated that Saddam must be removed even during the Clinton years. Saddam had WMD program in 1990’s (incompetent CIA knew nothing about it then), and even the French and Saddam’s generals were sure Saddam had active WMD program in 2002. We are still finding WMDs there today (500 nerve gas ganisters revealed last week). Saddam’s former nuclear program chief visited Nigeria (maybe it was a tourist trip or maybe not) so there certainly was a reason to disarm Saddam, just like Albright and other democratics have argued earlier.
Sec. Albright was the first senior American official to call publicly for the ouster of Saddam Hussein. She even compared Saddam to Hitler, noting that the world has not “seen, except maybe since Hitler, somebody who is quite as evil as Saddam Hussein.” One of the lessons of history, Albright also lectured, is that “if you don’t stop a horrific dictator before he gets started too far–that he can do untold damage” and “if the world had been firmer with Hitler earlier, then chances are that we might not have needed to send Americans to Europe during the Second World War. So, my lesson out of all this is deal with the problem at the time that you can and don’t step away from it thinking that it’ll go away. I think that’s the lesson here.”
Anyway, I’d hate to see this blog turning into political blog. Earlier I followed housing panic blog but it turned out to be a militant far left blog so I stopped following it.
I stronly recommended keeping this blog non-political. We have enough political blogs and partisanship already.
commie
Sorry but this is total BS. All leading democrats and Clinton officials stated that Saddam must be removed even during the Clinton years. Saddam had WMD program in 1990’s (incompetent CIA knew nothing about it then), and even the French and Saddam’s generals were sure Saddam had active WMD program in 2002. We are still finding WMDs there today (500 nerve gas ganisters revealed last week
You’re barking up the wrong tree. I’ve no problems with Saddam being deposed. I just happen to believe the reasons were purely economic and I don’t have a problem with that. Save the weapons of mass destruction and all that other stuff for folks who need another explanation. It’s easier to rally people for fighting for freedom or to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destuction. It’s hard to tell them that they’re dying to defend the dollar or access to oil. It’s not particularly difficult to recognize that while supporting the adminstration, so no political commentary is intended per se.
Shailesh Gala said…
More comments & analysis appreciated.
6/24/2006 09:38:10 PM
Best example of original analysis posted on this site other than stuff produced by grim.
excellent
shail:
The only comment is that while interest rates are a good proxy for the relative cost of financing, the one moving target is the introduction of mainstream “innovative” mortgage solutions. In that sense, a caveat would be some measure of the mortgage mix would need to be introduced. However, this issue is hardly a fatal flaw, and besides, it is virtually impossible to build the model accordingly.
To quote the American Idol judges – “…just keepin’ it real..”
Thank you for this material.
chicago
Shailesh,
Excellent analysis. I’d also point out that during other “high cost” times; high interest rates were much more of a factor. Falling housing prices along with falling interest rates brought affordability back to the market. The affordability crunch we are experiencing today happened with record low rates in place. It’s unlikely that falling interest rates will get us out of this one.
I would also point out that during periods like 1981; the affordability crunch was driven by interest rates, not housing prices. It was much more feasible to make a meaningful down payment in 1981 that it is today. In fact, the high interest rates would have been beneficial in saving for the down payment.
Shailesh:
“We have information about housing quantity, but not about its quality; this is a major gap in our knowledge. Data on overcrowding would complement existing indicators as well. The sustainability of the state’s housing patterns is also strongly influenced by the area of housing consumed per person…”
http://www.njssi.net/gi/housing/ind20.php
Homeownership NJ:
1990-65%
2005-70%
Shouldn’t this have increased to at least 80% if housing as a percentage of income dropped from over 54% to 38%..who is getting shut out?
The very bottom. All those towns below 195 that “the rest of NJ has to subsidize,” and so many people complain about.
38% of an income of under $50K still is not getting you a home in NJ for a huge number of people.
And I believe, in and economic turndown, those most vulnerable will be the first out on the street.
Pat
CF and Shailesh,
I would also comment that the “innovative” financing is why the pop in the bubble is comming faster. All of those crazy ARMs and IOs. I realize it is only anectdotal people are being pinched by these things and this year and next over 20% of mortgage debt with ARMs are resetting.
Coming to 2006, It would cost 38.12% of Average Personal Income to buy a house worth $244,010
So in conclusion, though we are finding today’s house prices very high, they are not that high compared to what folks had to pay in 70’s & 80’s. At least we are back to same time as in 1991.
Where can you buy a 2 bedroom house or even a crappy 1 bedroom condo for $244,000?
I know people who bought back in 1980 and prices are much higher today relatvie to then. Second they had the benefit of falling interest rates over the life of the loan where as prices are insane and reaste hit rock bottom and are going up. THERE IS NO WAY FOR HOUSE PRICES TO GO BUT DOWN!
Basic common sense. back in 1980 interwst rates were sky high but home prices relative to incomes was like 2-3 times at most. Today House prices are insane at 7-10 times incomes and interest rates hit rock bottom.
PRICES ARE GOING DOWN FAR AND FAST AS INTEREST RATES GO UP. IT’S THAT SIMPLE.
according to DB Global Markets Research $300 billion in ARM resets are happening this year with $1 trillion coming next year. i believe the 2 biggest impacts to the slowing market are these resets combined with rising interests rates putting those people already stretched in a no win situation.
next year we’ll have the same recipe but more of the same ingredients with 3.3x the ARM resets and rates probably at least 75-100bps higher than today. next year is going to be the start of a bloodbath IMO. if you can wait to buy i’d highly recommend waiting until the spring market and saving up for more downpayment to shield you more from the rising rates.
Richard,
I believe the number you are quoting is low. 2006 ARM resets are 600 billion, while 2007 is 1.3 trillion from what I have read,
Grim,
I am surprised you did not put the article from the ledger about where the growth in employment has been in NJ in last few years. Its our favorite, the Hughes and Seneca Show.
I think the broad conclusion of the Galanalysis is that the dominant variables of income and expenses [e.g., interest rates; real estate taxes] in home prices suggest that there is strong current pressure to move prices down, that only intensifies as taxes and interest rates go up.
We knew this, but it’s nice to see it in tangible form.
Looks like this flipper is in deep trouble:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1053886477
From RealtyTrac:
———————————
County: Essex
City: Short Hills
State: NJ
Year Built: 1956
Price: $725,000, 1830 SQ. FT
This Property Is A Notice Of Default. This Is The Initial Document Filed By An Attorney Or Trustee On Behalf Of The Foreclosing Lender That Starts The Foreclosure Process. This 1830 Square Foot Property Has 0 Bedrooms And 0 Baths. The Estimated Loan Balance Is $725000.00.
———————————
This apparently refers to the loan on the old house, which was knocked down and replaced by a 10,400 square foot mansion on 1.5 secluded acres.
The new house has been on the market since November 2005.
OLP: $5,995,000
CLP: $4,899,000
They would rather go into foreclosure than lower the sales price further and get out with a million or two in profit?
UnRealtor 1:53
I guess REinvestor doesn’t know about this pos. I can almost imagine ‘The investor’ flying over Short hills wearing a red spandex and rescuing the foreclosure by paying 15% more than the list price.
It is close to NY and prices keep gowing up! right???
Gosh, I hope the Bob in this article isn’t our Bob.
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzcov0625,0,7959461.story
http://tinyurl.com/m3g7y
GRIM,
Can I suggest you have a separate article every week to cover OPEN house reports?
That would be helpful.
Stan
From that Newsday article:
Four years ago, Robert and Ellie Facchini took out a home equity loan with an adjustable interest rate, which started at 4 percent. They hoped to make some improvements on their Centereach home and have some cash left for other expenses. Over time, however, they kept borrowing on the line of credit, eventually reaching their $140,000 maximum.
That was fine, Robert Facchini noted, as long as the interest rate stayed low. But in the past year or so, the rate has risen to 8.5 percent, and Facchini’s payment, which is based only on the interest, went from $400 to $870 a month. Meanwhile, Facchini, 53, found his income slashed in half when an old knee injury forced him to leave a well-paying mechanic position to become a security guard. His wife is on disability with a back injury.
“Now I’m having a hard time just paying the interest,” Robert Facchini said. “The money isn’t coming in the way it used to be.”
8%??? That’s like putting $140,000 on the Visa card. These people are insane.
“I can almost imagine ‘The investor’ flying over Short hills wearing a red spandex and rescuing the foreclosure by paying 15% more than the list price.”
LOL, that’s quite an image.
Hi gang,
I’ve been following this web site for some time know and want to relay the following comments I heard over the weekend. I have family who live in Bergen County who’ve been in close contact with realtors about the current market. The word out on the street among realtors is that the market in the 1million-1.5million range is nonexistant. I mean everyone is talking about how it has completely dried up. Almost no turn over at all. Houses in the 1-1.5 million range are just sitting (most for at least 4-5 months, lots for greater that 6 months). I tell you guys, hold onto your hats for what will come towards the end of the summer. Any body else out there heard the same?
“I believe the number you are quoting is low
metro, depends on the source. this information isn’t readily available but needs to be compiled in a variety of ways. in either case the ARM reset $’s are big enough to cause trouble.
One more comment to you guys,
especially grim, wanted to emphasize how important I realize this website it. When we consider about prior real estate correction periods, isn’t it interesting that no medium like this existed. I mean, no internet forum to spread the word of price depreciation and the like. Please everybody, keep up your good work, it’s important!! Thanks
bubbletuner, i’m working with a realtor in summit who does the higher end listings of $1 million plus and she’s told me the same thing. market has hit a wall. another broker i work with who covers morristown said the same thing. must be true.
I heard the same thing from a Morris County realtor, and this was a month ago over the Labor Day weekend.
“Now I’m having a hard time just paying the interest,” Robert Facchini said. “The money isn’t coming in the way it used to be.”
How stupid can people be? They thought it was free money?
I know this is a free country but I think government should lock up that kind of people into some institution and assign a guardian for them.
Let’s take a look at this house.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2610550&id=999999
Someone bought it at December 04 for $660K. It was an old but nice house on a very busy street.
They knocked it down and built a McMansion — 6000 square feet on 2/3 of an acre.
It was initially listed at $2.999M.
Now, it’s reduced to $2.795M – not even 7% off the obscene price.
Are they kidding me?????
Are these people out of their mind?
One more thing:
Houses around this obscene house are on sale for about $700K (many many houses around this house for sale).
investordavid, they can ask whatever they want. maybe they should ask $4 million while they’re fantasy land. it really doesn’t matter. most buyers today are onto the market shift and they aren’t even looking at listing price as its irrelevant to the real value of the property.
the inventory and transaction numbers won’t really hit the skids until aug, sept as june, july sales closing are deals done in the spring market to get the kids into the next school year.
gsmls – 2 short of 31.5 K
Currently, there are 31,498 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site.
check out this “gem” at mls #2231116. a partnership of flippers bought this back in october for i believe high $600’s. they plowed about $100k worth of work into it and put it on the market last december at $935k. they tried to do a for sale by owner to maximize flipper profit but that went nowhere for obvious reasons (overpriced!). then they brought in the ‘professionals’ weichert and they got alot of showings but only 1 offer recently. must’ve been some schmuck relocating as that seems to be the only people buying these days.
so it goes through home inspection and they find mold in the basement. ut oh! fell out of contract and now there’s some environmental engineering firm in there trying to clean it up.
talk about a flip gone bad! the ‘investors’ better hope at this point they break even as they’ve already sunk probably $20k on carrying costs and now they’ll have to disclose the mold issue even after cleanup.
betcha won’t see this one on Flip That House!
the vast majority of people who live in good towns have so much equity…and plenty of cash..you won’t see dramatic price reductions in desirable areas..if you are renting and waiting for the 750k house to drop down to 500k where you think they belong…that is fantasyland. the economic logic seems to be…i think gas prices should be about 1.50 because after all in the early 90’s i was paying 1.00..so 3.00 is ridiculous..and people’s income hasn’t tripled..so obviously gas will come down…um..it doesn’t work that way….dollars are worth less and less..assets are worth more and more…this trend won’t change unless you see a deflationary depression…it could happen i guess..but don’t hold your breath..there were people in the 70’s who sat around saying I’m not paying these prices..i’ll wait until they drop to the 1960’s levels..yeah.they became lifelong renters..
anon 11:48. nice opinion but it’s just that. there are always people selling and the average person is in their house for only 7 years. i’m looking in top towns and those that have traded up or have other motivational factors are dropping their prices very aggressively. affordability is key and rates are only going up further eroding the prices. sit back and let’s see how your theory plays out. i’ve already seen houses originally listed at $650-$675k currently listed in the mid to high $500’s and still not moving. sure some of them are listed too high to begin with but comps for these would suggest prices only $25k less than orig asking. it’s happening now and will only get worse.
“you won’t see dramatic price reductions in desirable areas…”
Funny stuff!
93 Meadowbrook Rd
Short Hills, NJ 07078
Mar 22, 2006 – $799,000
Apr 06, 2006 – $749,900
May 03, 2006 – $725,000
Jun 03, 2006 – $700,000
Jun 15, 2006 – $699,000
Jun 17, 2006 – $679,000
On the market since March, the “spring market”!
Richard, if a Greater Fool listened to our “Anon” realtor here, and bought the above house in March, that Greater Fool would be $120,000+ underwater.
Properties are sitting…
Prices are dropping…
Interest rates are rising…
ARMs are resetting…
Flippers are bleeding…
The party is over.
Shailesh,
thanks for the graph. seems obvious that prices hit a wall in mid 2005.