From the Daily Record:
No easy solution for projected traffic crunch
BY KEN SERRANOIt’s what most road commuters have learned to expect: more traffic and a longer drive to work and home. That’s the prognosis for people traveling on Route 287 in the coming years
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Traffic along a stretch of the interstate between Middlesex and Somerset counties, for example, is expected to rise by as much as 10 percent in four years. In less than 25 years, it will increase by 35 percent along the same stretch, according to one forecast.North of Route 78, traffic is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in four years and 20 percent by 2030. Under those scenarios, the ride-home drive time could finally make the full transition from the rush hour to the rush evening.
“Obviously, if these projections come to pass, it’s going to be a nightmare,” said Jeffrey Zupan, senior fellow for transportation with the Regional Plan Association, an independent nonprofit group.
For Zupan, more traffic means more money, lots of it, in terms of the tax burden on towns along the stretch and the lost revenue of businesses having trouble with worker arrivals.
…
“I predict as far as volumes for commuting, it’s not going to come close,” said Steve Carrellas, who cites telecommuting as one reason for his optimism.“Once you have the basic infrastructure, as far as the software goes, people don’t have to go to the office,” said Carrellas, state chapter coordinator for the National Motorists Association.
Carrellas, who has worked with the NJTPA, stressed that the forecasts do not take into account telecommuting, the high cost of gas and other future trends. Even if the worst predictions come true, he said higher volumes don’t have to mean more tie-ups and slowdowns.
US population expected to top 300 million in fall
The US population is on target to hit 300 million this fall, with Hispanic newborns and immigrants accounting for a large part of the increase.
Article from Economist,
American inflation Feeling the heat
But much of that jump is thanks to a sharp rise in the cost of housing (which makes up almost 40% of core CPI), particularly the category of “owners’ equivalent rent” which estimates the cost of living in a house by looking at rents charged on similar properties. Although this measure makes sense in theory (by living in your house you forgo rental income), it may now be overstating inflationary pressure.
As the housing market has slowed, fewer people are buying property, choosing to rent instead. That has pushed up rents. In turn, owners’ equivalent rent has risen too, even though homeowners have seen no change in the actual costs of owning their house. Because owners’ equivalent rent is estimated net of utility prices, recent falls in gas and electricity bills have paradoxically made matters worse.
The Big Picture takes a little stab at that piece in the economist..
CPI Null Set (via The Economist)
grim
I rent in West NY off of River Road. It is already clogged w traffic, as it goes down to only 1 lane. What do I see – nothing but more high density condos being built. The city just wants its prop tax money – absolutely nothing went to urban planning. I can see traffic on this road coming to a complete standstill in the morning rush. They put in a local light rail that no one uses as it does not go to NYC, so that was a brilliant idea. I will tell you – I live there for a quick commute. If the traffic there gets too bad – Im gone with a lot of other renters. If Im going to have an hour plus commute – I might as well do that in the burbs.
From the original article:
“I predict as far as volumes for commuting, it’s not going to come close,” said Steve Carrellas, who cites telecommuting as one reason for his optimism.
“Once you have the basic infrastructure, as far as the software goes, people don’t have to go to the office,” said Carrellas, state chapter coordinator for the National Motorists Association.
Keep dreaming, Steve. The infrastructure to enable large-scale telecommuting has been in place for years.
Grrr. Working in IT, this is a sore subject for me.
In my (albeit anecdotal) experience there is massive cultural inertia against telecommuting in corporate America. A fortunate few get to telecommute for a portion of their work week, but I believe it is rare to find employers who are sufficiently open-minded regarding this.
The reasons for this are many, and would probably justify an entirely separate discussion.
If an IT position can be done remotely, it will be done remotely.
That, almost always, means the task will be performed outside of the U.S.
Why pay someone a NJ/NY salary if the task can be done remotely?
grim
The real estate boom over the past 5 years or so has resulted in an explosion of new housing. The problem is there has not been an equivalent explosion in the development of infrastructure to support the increased population levels.
How many more lanes can be added to I-287? Another poster mentioned River Road in West New York/Edgewater. I remember in the mid-90s that road was pretty sleepy. Now it can be a parking lot during rush hours. Ditto for Newport in Jersey City. That area used to be pretty dead. Now a drive down Washington is an exercise in frustration with traffic, lights, pedestrians crossing everywhere.
Excessive traffic is yet one more reason that NJ will struggle to maintain it’s population (add it to the list along with high property taxes)