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As always, anything goes!
curious at the town level where inventory is building/sitting versus not. i’ve commented on a number of ‘top-tier’ towns in the union/morris/essex counties in particular westfield and summit. while inventory has risen the stuff sitting is either way overpriced and/or downright ugly. prices are still within 5% of spring peak sales prices so i’ve yet to see the big slowdowns going on in other towns.
please chime in. thanks.
here is to another weekend of summer.
hope those realtors are sitting in their overpriced open houses
enjoy!!!
Many of the sellers still don’t get it.
the majority of the sellers do not want to face reality, well it will take time, so continue to save and play a wait and see game depending on your situation
i am comfortable to wait it out
Here’s the best incentive I’ve seen to date:
Builder charged with selling heroin at job sites
My target ZIP in PA is boring.
It’s mostly the same old junk sitting there. For me, there wasn’t even an exciting back-to-school inventory move.
A couple of houses – a handful – sold last month in the cheaper mid-range. Not dumps, just 40-yr old boring splits near good schools.
A few new listings came on and a very few went under contract. I’m so sick of looking at the same tired pictures of the same 150 houses. I have read the words, “Not a drive-by!” so many times, that I dream about it.
Several flipper homes dropped off in denser developments. Since they are not relisted, I’m assuming they gave up and rented.
Yawn.
Pat
it’s quite laughable to see new listings and their asking prices. it’s like the sellers didn’t get the memo…
grim:
I think your experiment “Tell Them How Much You would Pay” from June 28th must have worked. One of my houses is a price drop.
I said:
” http://tinyurl.com/s8mov
Asking $515,000; I’d offer $450 to put a good amount down. Well water/septic.”
NOW listed at $495,500.
Thanks, Grim!
they are slowly getting the memo, but it’s hard to read with your eyes closed.
JAY
i know for a fact that sellers are looking for feedback from potential buyers. sure they might not accept your offer but it gives them a sense of what the market will bear. i’ve presented offers on several properties that weren’t accepted but then very soon after a ‘new price’ was on the property. if you’re offering $300k on a $500k property you won’t be taken seriously (even though in some cases you should be) but offers within $50k would be. gotta talk em down slowly folks.
It does NOT seem to me that Cedar Grove (Essex County) real estate has come down significantly in price. There are about twice the of houses for sale this year in the under $600 range from last year (29 vs 14 houses last year at this time), the same number of $601 to $800,000 houses (about 2 to 3 at any one time), and about the same number of $900,000 and higher houses. And everything still seems ridiculously over priced for teeny, tiny cramped houses on teeny, tiny lots.
So I’m waiting to see what develops. If anything – with mortgage rate increases the houses are less affordable than last year.
Here is a story about the coming growth of rental inventory that I was referring to in a previous thread
New condos could become apartments as sales cool
By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
There’s relief in sight for some renters as the oven-hot real estate markets cool: A huge number of new condos could be converted to rental properties over the next 18 months…
JAY
Jay,
Thats a really good point.
THere is no way all these conods are going to move. and they are still building .
SAS
I was taking my grandson for a spin today the BMW roadster (thats a really fun car).
We like to play a little game together called the “count the sucker for sale signs” game. I know, I know, by my grandson is 10, so bare with me. So from Hacksensack to Englewood Cliffs we counted 21 for sale signs. And we saw 2 pretty big condo complexes going up. I was more surprized about the condos going up. One was in Englewood Cliffs by the railroad. Its called Town Center at Englewood cliffs. No way those condos are going to move. Another one was by a Porshe dealer on Van Norden Ave (I think still in Englewood Cliffs). Thats alot of damn inventory for such a short drive.
But there is always a silver lining in everything, there were alot of CAT cranes and heavy machinery there, so if ya own CAT stock you were happy. Hat tip about CAT, friend is a big wig for CAT in Peroia, Ill. Cat is in the works for selling 80 cranes to China. CAT is doing great, thanks to our friends in China.
Also, nothing is more fun than whipping cookies with the grandson in parking lots….he..he….
We had a blast.
SAS
Those 80 cranes are those real big ones that are used to build skyscrapper.
China is literally building cities per day. Its really amazing to see it. You guys shoud go there some time
SAS
SAS
actually the town centre development is in Englewood, and so is the Porsche dealer. Englewood Cliffs begins at the top of Palisade Ave and runs along the Hudson River.
JAY
Three part series on Mr. Buffet..
Pt 1
Pt 2
Pt 3
Grim, Good stuff. thanks
Check your zip codes folks, lots of price drops today. Sellers are getting squeezed as we enter mid-July.
The market mania is over, and now it comes down to how low they’ll go.
Check out this seller:
20 Great Hills Terrace, Short Hills
MLS 2269098
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1058571920
Price history:
Apr 20, 2006 – $1,199,000
Jun 27, 2006 – $1,075,000
Jul 08, 2006 – $995,000
Jul 14, 2006 – $849,000
Pat
what towns in PA are you looking at? Wife and I are actively looking in Yardley/Lower Makefield, New Hope/Solebury, Washington Crossing/Upper Makefield and NEwtown/Wrightstown/Carversville.
People are still smoking crack asking for the prices that they do…
check out this new listing in westfield in the not so desirable part of town where you have grandfathered in multi-family dwellings.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1064284685
bought 2 years ago during a near bubble peak price of $549k, now asking $589k. a few houses in the better part of town (north of rt 28) in better elementary school districts are sitting on the market asking $600k. these sellers will be fortunate to break even at this point. fools. just because you bought 2 years ago doesn’t mean you’re equity is safe.
Can anyone point to any info on asking price vs. selling price; my husband is interested in seeing a grah or making a graph he can get that info on a local or national level.
unrealtor, great hills terrace is a great part of town. it comes down another $100k i might be in the game. if you drive around the area for the most part all you see are $1.5 million and up homes.
anon 9:35, asking versus selling price is highly dependent on time period and location, even within sections of a particular town. doing a graph is not going to tell you much. you need to literally look at houses within the immediate vicinity, even the same block if you can that have sold within the past 3 months. anything else is a strech and/or stale.
Richard said: “if you drive around the area for the most part all you see are $1.5 million and up homes.”
Very very subjective, but stated as fact.
It’s no wonder I’ve done well, buying and selling nearly anything since my teens.
As if they have a put for their land, wood and nails.
$1.5m yaaa heard :)
Anon 9:30
Same target area, but not Newtown/Wrightown. Too much traffic over on 413 for me (I’m spoiled). Solebury is a crapshoot on price for us, and a little too far for my husband, who works in Phil.
Let me know if you need all Bucks county sales from peak last year. You can then do your own tracking going forward from Zillow.
If you’re not familiar with the area, for example in Lower Makefield, let me know what section. Some sections of developments have a “better built” reputation, some sections have crooked stairs (LOL), and some get water.
If you can swing the price and are commuting to NJ, stay near 95/Yardley. Most of the stuff is McMansion type right now, but there are a couple of smaller capes for less.
Pat
Mortgage rates drop 2nd week in a row………
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mtga/20060713a1.asp
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mtga/20060713a1.asp
Rate peak in sight?
If the tame June jobs report is a sign that economic growth is slowing down, then the upward pressure on interest rates should ease, too.
In a mid-year report, three housing economists predict that mortgage rates have just about peaked.
The housing economists are the chief economists for the National Association of Home Builders and for mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All three said this week that they expect rates on 30-year mortgages to stay below 7 percent for the rest of the year.
Six months ago, the same economists had predicted that rates would peak around 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent this year. It didn’t turn out that way. Rates have been above 6.6 percent since April.
Didn’t we have at this a couple of weeks ago? I can’t find the predictions. I think I said 7.5 on 1/1.
Maybe not.
“Very very subjective, but stated as fact.
isn’t the value of any real estate subjective? it’s all about what someone is willing to pay for it. all you can go on is comps and the comps in the surrounding area state most houses are more money.
GSMLS – 31,851 properties advertised
130 added today.
Richard, check out this Greater Fool — paid $1.2M for a 1950s ranch needing a total renovation a few blocks away from 20 Great Hills Terrace:
MLS 2235824
32 Fairfield Terrace
Assessed value: $634K
Under Contract: March 17, 2006
Closed: $1.2M June 22, 2006
They’ll be underwater for a decade (if they’re lucky).
To add further context, they could have bought 20 Great Hills Terrace for full asking price, and then had $350,000 to spend improving the house (if that’s even possible). They’re so dumb, they probably went 0% down with an ARM for that $1.2M.
Another price drop for this property, no Greater Fools signing up:
93 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1056920191
Mar 22, 2006 – $799,000
Apr 06, 2006 – $749,900
May 03, 2006 – $725,000
Jun 03, 2006 – $700,000
Jun 15, 2006 – $699,000
Jun 17, 2006 – $679,000
Jul 14, 2006 – $650,000
I am planning to buy a house in north Jersey area around May 2007. Can you please tell me how the market and prices for the homes will be?
Thanks
Kris-
I would recommend reading through the archives of this site (maybe start in March). Grim and the posters have done a fantastic job or analyzing, tracking and discussing the northern NJ market. You will be well prepared if you do your homework starting with this site.
JM
You Know You’re from New Jersey When…
You’ve been seriously injured at Action Park. (Amusement park)
You know that the only people who call it “Joisey” are from New York (usually The Bronx) or Texas.
You don’t think of citrus when people mention “The Oranges.” (Names of several Jersey towns)
You know that it’s called “Great Adventure, ” not “Six Flags.” (Amusement park)
You’ve ordered a hard roll with butter for breakfast.
You’ve known the way to Seaside Heights since you were seven. (Jersey Shore town)
You’ve eaten at a diner, when you were stoned or drunk, at 3 am.
Whenever you park, there’s a Camaro within three spots of you.
You remember that the “Two Guys” were from Harrison. (Name of defunct discount department store chain)
You know that the state isn’t one big oil refinery.
At least three people in your family still love Bruce Springsteen, and you know what town Jon Bon Jovi is from.
You know what a “jug handle” is. (Traffic turn-around for U turns)
You know that a WaWa is a convenience store. (Convenience store)
You know that the state does have real farmland.
You know that there are no “beaches” in new Jersey – there’s “The Shore, ” and you know that the road to the shore is “The Parkway” not “The Garden State Highway.”
You know that “Piney” isn’t referring to a tree. (Someone from far south central Jersey)
Even your school cafeteria made good Italian subs, and, you call it a “sub” not a “submarine sandwich” or worse yet, a “hoagy” or a “hero.”
You remember the song from the Palisades Park commercials. (An extinct amusement park. Remember the Rockn Roll song about it?)
You know how to properly negotiate a Circle. (A Traffic Circle)
You know that the last question people from other states ask is always has to do with your driving. (They always think we’re the worst, but we KNOW they really are, especially NYC or Philly!)
You know that “Acme” is an actual store, not just a Warner Bros creation. (A Supermarket)
You know that this is the only “New…” state that doesn’t require “New” to identify it (like, try …Mexico, ..York, …Hampshire (doesn’t work, does it?).
You know how to translate this conversation: “Jeet yet?” “No, Jew?” (Did you eat yet? No you?)
You only go to New York City for day trips, and you only call it “The City.”
You know that a “White Castle” is the name of BOTH a fast food chain AND a fast food sandwich.
You consider a corned beef sandwich with lettuce and mayo a sacrilege.
In the 80’s you wore your hair REALLY high.
You don’t think “What exit” (do you live near?) is very funny. (We don’t all live off the Turnpike)
You know that the real first “strip shopping center” in the country is Route 22.
You know that people from 609 area code are “a little different.” (South Jersey Area Code)
You know that no respectable New Jerseyan goes to Princeton – that’s for out-of-staters.
The Jets-Giants game has started fights at your school or local bar.
You live within 20 minutes of at least three different malls.
You can see the Manhattan skyline from some part of your town.
You refer to all highways and interstates by their numbers.
Every year, you had at least one kid in your class named Tony.
You know where every “clip” shown in the Sopranos opening credits is.
You’ve gotten on the wrong highway trying to get out of Willowbrook Mall.
You’ve eaten a Boardwalk cheesesteak with vinegar fries.
You have a favorite Atlantic City casino.
You start planning for Memorial Day weekend in February.
And finally…
You’ve never pumped your own gas. (There’s a law against it)
hi pat, i could certainly use the data. whats of equal importance to me, is about knowing where the flood zones are both in lower and upper makefields.
is there another way to get in touch besides this board?
Hi, anon 9:30..I’ll put the info on a blog on Monday am.
It’s 1300 lines of data, tho, as a warning.
Flood zones are very common in Bucks County. Many of the McMansions and Humongocondos were built, of course, on fertile farmland in non-hilly zones. What makes it fertile? Flooding. In Yardley Hunt, for ex. there are homes that got a lot of basement water when built, but should be O.K now if pumped properly.
Any time you see trees in a stand in the back of a level/flat condo development in LM, you know the place is gonna be damp and wet (sometimes you can tell by the back decks on the place). There is a reason they advertise “Cedar Closets!”
When you read a topographical map of the county, you can’t get a great idea of the flood zones on the Neshaminy Creek, the Delaware River, or the canal. You really can’t tell which communities have invested in flood walls, higher dikes, and gates. It’s chatting with the people on a Saturday.
Yardley Boro has flooded 3 times in less than 2 years, but is O.K if you are up on the hill.
I wouldn’t live in most of the newer homes on the Neshaminy (even though some places are pretty) unless my house was on stilts. They’ve raised some.
Check back on this on Mon.
The Housing market is DEAD!
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Greedy grubbing in denial sellers just sitting there trying to find a fool. NO MORE FOOLS LEFT!
Realtors are miserable no sales no commish and feuding with greedy grubbing sellers to lower prices.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
What’s with the new realtor spin on inventory “growth rate” decreasing?
If the inventory is 1000 and you add 1000 more the “growth rate” is 100%
But if you add 1000 to the current inventory of 32000, the rate of growth is 3%.
Prices are at the edge of the cliff ready to plunge. The only ones holding up the pl;unge are greedy grubbing too late sellers in denial demanding what their neighbors got last year.
TOO LATE!
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Don’t be the fool signing up for monthly slavery. You do and you use a risky gimmicky loan to get in YOU DESERVE THE CONSEQUENCES AND CONGRATS TO THE SELLER WHO COULD FIND SUCH A FOOL!!!!!!!!!
BOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!
Bob
Inventory “Growth Rate” DECREASING!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHA
A DESPERATE BUNCH.
BUYERS ARE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF IN THIS WHOLE PROCESS.
HOWEVER THIS IS CHANGING NOW AND IF YOU HAVE A DOWN PAYMENT YOU ARE IN THE DRIVER SEAT NOT THE GREEDY GRUBBING TOO LATE SELLER OR THE REALTOR!!!!!!
Make’em pay for your patience time and sacrifice.
Times are a changing. MISERY growing among starving realtors and greedy grubbing soon to be Papapapapa panicking sellers.
BOOOOOOOYcott Ripoff house prices
Bob
NO BIDDING NO MAAS NO NOTTTING!!!!!!!!!
MAKE’EM SIT AND WATCH THE MISERY GROW!
too late grubbers.
DO NOT BE THE LAST FOOL TO GET SANDBAGGED!
BABABBABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!
Bob
“We like to play a little game together called the “count the sucker for sale signs” game. I know, I know, by my grandson is 10, so bare with me. So from Hacksensack to Englewood Cliffs we counted 21 for sale signs.”
HAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
Bababababa
BOOOOOOOOOOOOycott Houses
Bob
Many many many people are in over their heads. Living beyond their means they are getting choked with escalating costs.
A massive downsizing move coming and massive house deflation.
Morning, Bob.
Pat
You people crack me up. Go out and get a job that pays real money so you can afford the 350-500k that houses in north jersey are selling for. Are you just too lazy to commute into the city? You can easily find a job making 80-120k. l-a-z-y….. house prices are going nowhere because there ARE people that will work to make that $ and pay these prices and you guys will be sitting in your apartments while we having our BBQ’s and swimming pools and familys over. GOOOOO north jersey housing conspiracy!! woo…
anon 9:46, you just don’t have the material to go up against booyah bob. come back when you find some better writers.
anon 09:46 clearly has alot to learn.
oh well, I love making money off people like that…he he….
SAS
Yet another SCUM realtor re-listing a property with a new MLS # to hide the price history:
15 Woodland Rd, Short Hills
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060259984
(link will expire soon)
May 17, 2006 – $825,000 (MLS 2279186)
Jun 01, 2006 – $810,000
Jun 04, 2006 – $799,000
Jul 13, 2004 – WITHDRAWN
Jul 14, 2006 – $750,000 (MLS 2299477)
And yet another SCUM realtor re-listing a property with a new MLS # to hide the price history:
18 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1056372665
(link will expire soon)
Mar 05, 2006 – $879,000 (MLS 2253723)
May 01, 2006 – $829,000
Jun 05, 2006 – $795,000
Jul 13, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Jul 14, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2299446)
Reality: 131 days on market
Realtor Lies: “1 day on market”
The NAR should run a TV commercial on this practice, and explain that it’s really ethical, and that “only a realtor, who swear an oath of ethics, can help you find a home.”
Rumour has it that Booyah Bob is a VP at GS..
:)
grim
unrealtor,
Drop me an email nnjbubble@gmail.com
jb
unrealtor, if meadowbrook road was so “motivated”, why don’t they drop their price below comparable on the market properties? cause its all lies. i saw a house the other day that in the remarks said it was ‘in immaculate condition and spotlessly maintained’. there was wallpaper from 30 years ago all over the house with a kitchen and 1.5 baths last updated in the early 80’s. every day realtors show themselves for the charlatans most of them are.
unrelator,
you sure you got that MLS# right?
“Jul 14, 2006 – $750,000 (MLS 2299477)”
Its showing as a place in Ohio? Unlesss I did something wrong.
SAS
unrealtor,
Got another Ohio house for that second post too..
“Jul 14, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2299446)”
What am I doing wrong or is there a type-o?
SAS
Some sections of SFD’s in Parsippany are doing well. They have always been a good value though.
CNS
Unrealtor, if you really want to lodge a complaint, tell the FTC.
They are now taking comments:
http://www.ftc.gov/bc/realestate/index.htm
http://tinyurl.com/nclrz
or email proach@ftc.gov
Pat
More and more foreclosures!!!!
Bababababbababa
BUST!
Housing Bust!
Those that are not financially stretched an in over their heads will be fine.. the other FOOLS are in for a fianncial nightmare.
Bababababa
Bob
About $1.5 Trillion in ARM Mtg adjustments this year and Next.
Can you say Squeeeeeeezzzzzzz?
McMansion buyers having regrets about now. It ain’t going to get any better. Escalating Prop taxes Utilities and upkeep going to squeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzz.
The Big downsize is coming. Got a McMansion Oh NO!
This economy is strong?
(Laugh)
It is debt infested.
Babababababa
Bob
House prices at the edge of the cliff ready for the great plunge!
Only the greedy grubbing in denial too late want it all sellers holding this thing back……but those that financially strapped will send this housing market PLUNGING!
Yeah I know house prices are normal now. Appreciation will flatten. HAHAHHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Yeah Okay Lereah! Irving Fisher 1929 Repeat!
High Permanent Plateau OOOOOKAAAAEEEEE!
Babababababa
BOOOOOOOOYcott and watch the starving realtors and grubbing sellers scramble!
It’s not a one way street folks.
Down is the trend either accept it or follow it lower.
No Bids No Maas No NOOTT”””ING!
Bob
An economy based on escalating (parabolic) debt levels ain’t strong!
Good ole easy Al got out the door before the credit meltdown.
Babbababa
Bob
So realtors say “NORMALIZED markets going forward to not a PEEP about dropping or plunging prices to correct the absurdity of the recent 5 year runup in home prices!
This housing market is teetering on collllllapse!
Just listen to all the so called experts talking heads babbling about housing and the fearless binging consumer.
Babababba
BUST!
Housing Bust!
Bababababa
Bob
If the RE market goes down by 20-25%, will it also impact the new construction? I mean some of the builders are selling new 2 bedroom townhouses (1500 sqft) for 500K in NNJ. I hope they come down to a more realistic and affordable price.
-SM
Jul 13, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Jul 14, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2299446)
Reality: 131 days on market
Realtor Lies: “1 day on market”
The NAR should run a TV commercial on this practice, and explain that it’s really ethical, and that “only a realtor, who swear an oath of ethics, can help you find a home.”
What if the listing contract was for 4 months? Some Realtors will pull as a Withdrawal vs. an Expired so that the other vultures will no go after it. The general rule is no solicitation for listings unless the listing has expired. There is a method to the madness.
If they fire some missles into Tel Aviv, I really do think Israel will go after Iran. And US will back it, perhaps send some air support. This will piss off China and Russia, which will in turn give Japan an excuse to slap N. Korea around, because the focus will be off them for awhile.
And why do you think we are taking so long to respond as friend of Israel? Because this is exactly what Pres. Bush wants!
ALso,
Citigroup and Commerce Bank are going to release earnings this week. Should be interesting, they employ alot of people around here.
SAS
If they fire some missles into Tel Aviv, I really do think Israel will go after Iran. And US will back it, perhaps send some air support. This will piss off China and Russia, which will in turn give Japan an excuse to slap N. Korea around, because the focus will be off them for awhile.
And why do you think we are taking so long to respond as friend of Israel? Because this is exactly what Pres. Bush wants!
Anon 2:38pm said; “If the RE market goes down by 20-25%, will it also impact the new construction? I mean some of the builders are selling new 2 bedroom townhouses (1500 sqft) for 500K in NNJ. I hope they come down to a more realistic and affordable price.
-SM ”
Dear Sir/Madam; They won’t, however I assure you the receivers will. The type of condo you are describing will be ballpark $230k.
32k on the MLS just round the corner! the late fall and winter are going to be brutal for would be sellers.
Am looking for a home in either Chatham or Shorthills. We can stretch up to $800K.
Husband and I make a total of 180K, have a child aged 4. Wanted to send her to a town with highly ranked public school system.
Can anyone suggest some decent neighbourhoods in these two towns for me? Thanks in advance.
Kathy
its over.
So 2 soldiers are missing from Israel and they kill 60 civilians in Lebanon.
3000 die on 9/11 and US kills (US is responsible for) 100,000 in Iraq……brilliant.
Buncha baloney….
The only baloney are the terrorists and madmen that think they can launch attacks on other countries and not face the consequences of their actions. I hope they will be taught a lesson this time.
Kathy,
“We can stretch up to $800K.”
You never want to stretch anything when it comes to money. You should be saying “can easily afford”, so I doubt you can afford 800k.
My input, but like I tell all these whips on here, I am a just a fish in a see of sharks. (But remeber if you wanna kill a shark, you stab in their underside because that is where there skin is soft.) :)
Real estate in NJ is a house of cards about ready to collapse. Yes, I am sure you know people whom made money, I know its all the rage, but market timing is everything, and you my dear are too late.
Invetory is building up, inflations is taking over (there is also a thing called stealth inflation, so don’t always believe the CPI numbers), interest rates are rising. So basically, you have a huge bubble that is about to get pricked. What you buy today, will fall at least 20%, possibly even 40%. You will be upside down (owing more than what the house is worth) before you know it, bank can call your loan (meaning, you are considered a credit risk). We are looking at a wave for foreclosures about ready to hit because alot of people got no money down ARMs, taking a calculated gamble thinking there house in value will go up so they can refinance before their ARM resets.
Right now, cash is king. The more you have the better. Take what would be your downpayment and put it in a 5% savings account and reduce your life style and raise cash, get out of debt if any, (180k ain’t excatly Hollywood lifestyle, no offense), and if you have enough cash, might want to consider breaking into thirds. 1/3 cash, 1/3 gold or silver (poor mans gold), and stock (check out coal, uranium, or defense stocks). Stay away from the Dow 30 because its propped up by pencil neck hedge funds who have turned Wall St. into a Red Light district, they are worse than the Red Light district in Bankok, Thailand (yup, been there, done that).
Remember, majortiy of people do the wrong thing at the wrong time.
If you buy now, and it goes up 5% hey…your really smart….but if it goes down 5%, you lost it all and might not ever recover. Get the drift?
Hold, you have nothing to lose, but if you buy now and it drops…ouch.
If you understand the times, you can always profit from it.
In the 70s, an ounce of gold bought the Dow, I didn’t buy the Dow, but I bought my first townhouse in manhattan when nobody wanted it, and sold it when everyone wanted it. Buy when things are not in favor, sell when they are in favor.
SAS
I think some of my fellow bloggers might not know the phases of a bullmarket, so this might be help in understanding real estate and its bubble.
4 phases of a bullmarket:
1)Born on pessimism
2)Grows on skepticism
3)Matures on optimism
4)Dies of euphoria
Consider summer 05 phase 4 of the real estate bull market, because all the sellers were doing a dance when they sold there house, people were bidding up prices, and there was a psycholgical “irrational exuberance” by everyone in the air(except for people on this blog..he he..)
Now take these 4 phases and they get be applied to about everything (barebones of course). But you have to understand the times, as well.
SAS
What is a realistic offer for this house?
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060864991
Maryanne.. I’m a skunk, but I’d bid 425 and let them turn it down.
Pat
And then tell them you are offering $450 on this one if they don’t want your offer:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1064284877?lnksrc=00045
Wow. I sat back and just reflected about my comment to Maryanne, thinking of a year ago, when we bid and were outbid on homes. Scrambled and lost. Frustrated maniacs..making bids at 1:00 am until I said, “Enough.”
But I know now we were lucky. Who is the patron saint of home buyers? Joseph?
What a differenced twelve months makes, huh?
Patience pays off.
Pat
“More sellers put their trust in St. Joseph
By Joie Tyrrell
Tribune Newspapers: Newsday
Published June 25, 2006
MELVILLE, N.Y. — About three months ago, agent Louise Pezzello of John Savoretti Realty in Franklin Square had a listing that just wouldn’t sell.
She advertised. She held open houses. She asked the seller to reduce the price (he declined). Her listing was coming to an end, and she was desperate.
That’s when she turned to St. Joseph.
Someone told her that if she buried a statue of the Holy Family’s foster father upside down in the yard of the seller’s home that a buyer would come.
“Within two weeks, we got our buyer,” she said.
Call it myth, superstition, folklore or faith, but in a slowing market, real estate agents and religious suppliers say more and more homeowners are turning to St. Joseph to help sell their homes. There are numerous books, guides and home-selling kits available on the Internet and in stores that explain the procedure and include a statue of the saint.
Long Island Catholic Supply in Roosevelt Field is selling about 200 kits a week, more than usual, said Kristine Leonard, whose father owns the store. The $9 kit includes a statue of St. Joseph holding a hammer, instructions on how to place it and a prayer.”
http://tinyurl.com/n3zpx
Oil: Looking at $100
While a broader conflict with Iran isn’t likely soon, one more big event could push crude prices into the triple digits.
By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 14 2006: 3:30 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — As bombs fall in Beirut, pipelines explode in Nigeria and Iran shakes its fist at the West, energy traders and motorists alike are wondering one thing: How high can oil prices go?
“If another major event takes place, it’s not at all unrealistic for oil to spike to $100,” said Bruce Lanni, an oil analyst at A.G. Edwards. “And there’s no fundamental reason in this current climate to see oil prices retreat below $70 in the next few months.”
The debate, or speculation, focuses on the type and likelihood of another “major event” in the next few months.
Oil jumped to record highs Thursday and Friday, breaking the $78 mark, on fears that fighting between Israel and Lebanon will spread to the broader Middle East, which accounts for 30 percent of the world’s oil output and holds 60 percent of its proven reserves.
For now, all eyes are on Iran. The country, the world’s fifth-largest producer, could very well be referred to the United Nations Security Council after if failed to respond earlier this week to a package of Western incentives intended to get it to curb its nuclear program.
It could also get dragged into the Israeli-Lebanon conflict, as the country is widely believed to support the Hezbollah fighters that Israel is currently chasing in southern Lebanon, and may be supplying the rockets now hitting Israeli cities.
The ultimatefear is that either way, Iran may cut off its oil exports or, worse, attempt to disrupt tanker traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz just off its coast. About a quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait on its way to market.
But experts say the latter scenario isn’t likely.
“Markets tend to over-react,” said Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Iran doesn’t need to be sinking ships in the Gulf, they have other cards to play,” like increasing support for fighters in Iraq or Lebanon.
James Phillips, a research fellow at the think tank Heritage Foundation, said Iran has only limited military capability to disrupt shipping. He also said Iran, unlike Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which can export oil via pipeline, is completely dependent on the Gulf to export its product.
“It would truly have to be an act of desperation on Iran’s part,” said Phillips, saying it would take a U.S. strike on its oil facilities to push the country that far.
Even with that worst-case scenario aside, analysts are still split over how much higher worries about the Middle East might drive oil prices.
“I don’t see the violence quitting anytime soon,” said Neal Dingmann, an energy analyst at the investment firm Pritchard Capital Partners. “I think we continue up and to the right.”
Dingmann predicts prices of $80 to $85 a barrel over the next couple of months barring any new major events, and $90 to $100 if things escalate.
But A.G. Edwards’ Lanni, noting all the other hot spots from Nigeria to North Korea to Venezuela, thinks tensions are near a peak.
“We’re most likely at or near the worst of all scenarios geopolitically,” he said “Common sense tells you that at least some of these situations will get resolved.”
There is one thing lurking just around the corner that Lanni said could cause his projected spike to $100.
“The only other event that I can put my hands on now is hurricane season,” he said.
And while there is some debate over the likelihood of another big event, energy analysts said that even if world peace broke out tomorrow, fundamental supply and demand would still keep oil in the $50 to $60 range.
Thanks, Pat. I was thinking the same thing – although I think $425K is a little low at this point. Guess I’d need to know how long it’s been on the market.
Iran may cut off its oil exports
Why would Iran do that? Its economy would collapse in a few weeks. BTW, Iran needs to import gasoline. Now it tries to cut of imports in preparation of the war but it cannot do that (rationing is not very popular and angry population is the last thing mullahs want).
SAS, the MLS numbers are correct, look at GSMLS.com (it may take a day or two for the new price/MLS number to appear).
“What if the listing contract was for 4 months? … There is a method to the madness.”
15 Woodland was initially listed on May 15th.
Regardless, I’m not buying any excuses. Realtors are registered members of the NAR. The NAR should not allow this practice. If a house is listed, the MLS # should either not change, or the asking price history should be published as part of the new listing.
It should be illegal (it is clearly unethical, at the least), to hide days on market and prior asking prices for a property.
If the NAR wants to tout ethics, it should start acting that way.
And if a seller says “I don’t want my past asking price published” simply tell them, “Then you’ll have to sell FSBO, I’m a member of the NAR and that’s not allowed.”
There’s no excuse for allowing an NAR framework where unethical realtors can operate at will.
Help! I need feedback on this:
I live in a high rise condo in Hudson County. Our board continually makes decisions resulting in what is spiraling into a financial mess for the residents. I think it will be easier if I just provide a laundry list.
– We’re over 200K in the red and the board cannot account for it.
– They are renewing a contract with a management company that does nothing for the residents and we’ve expressed as much, but yet the board kept them with a raise in fee.
– Ditto for the security – a contract renewal at 125K over the previous year.
– They have allowed assessments to build that will cost between 16 – 20K per unit, but yet will not give us any explanations about vendors selected, timelines, etc.
– One of the assessments was for the halls – the contractor walked out on the job because of a payment dispute. Several floors are left stripped; others are incomplete.
– They took 10 million dollar credit line from North Fork Bank that the owners are supposed to use as financing for the assessments. The line of credit was supposed to be for 9 years for 3 assessments. It is almost 2 years past and we only received the one assessment so far. If projects 2 and 3 are ~ 14-17k then you have to divide the total by 7 years so your payments will be higher. This is complete mismanagement of funds!
– Scaffolding was erected around the building in October 2004 for a project that has yet to begin. We’ve been paying over 1,500 a month on the equipment.
– Our maintenance is about to be increased for the second time in less that 6 months.
– The board will not pay attention to or solicit feedback or concerns from the owners. We are insulted, stifled and shut down in meetings.
– The building has also informed us that we’ll be assessed for flood insurance because they don’t have the reserve to cover it. But yet, they are moving forward with gym renovations that will cost over 10K for the doors alone.
– They gave us a rule/regulation book that we had no input in at all.
– Requests, complaints and maintenance matters sit for months in the management office.
I feel that an investigation is necessary in order to shed some transparancy on the financial matters. There is something suspect in the way things are handled. People who speak out also tend to be harassed by phone or at their place of work. Several owners have also reported damage to their cars after saying or doing something that questioned the actions of the board or the management company. Petitions have resulted in a few of the board members being removed, but this hasn’t solved anything.
How do we go about getting outside intervention in here to get to the bottom of this? Where do I begin with this? I am very concerned about my investment.
But This One Is Special
Each Developer Is Certain That Its Condos Will Sell
By Tomoeh Murakami Tse
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, July 15, 2006; Page F01
It’s no secret: After a dizzying five years during which buyers threw ever-larger sums of money at condominium projects, units are languishing on the market and prices have stalled…
JAY
11:57
What are you meaning by saying “I am concerned about my investment?”
You are not an investor, you are a renter. Even worse than a renter, since renters have leases that protect them from such shenanigans. Get some legal advice from the C-IHC. http://www.c-ihc.org http://tinyurl.com/mawjz
—–
“Officials at the New Jersey Department of Community Affairs say in the last ten years, they have seen a steady increase in complaints against homeowners associations and condo boards. Department representatives say the best way for tenants to regain some of their rights is to file a lawsuit against their associations”
http://tinyurl.com/rlyso
http://tinyurl.com/mpjy2
Pat
http://www.nj.com
Spotlight
“Jerseyans flock to Pa.
• More find the house of their dreams across the river
http://tinyurl.com/mgbc8
• Graphics: On the movehttp://tinyurl.com/rbr6u
• Crossing the border? Talk about making the switch here”
I don’t see this as much in Bucks County. I actually think there are fewer professional jobs in Central Jersey that when I moved here, so most of this extreme commuting is going on from Allentown north to the Poconos.
Pat, I am not a renter. I own my unit. What made you think I was a renter?
Pat, just to clarify, the board pays no attention to the owners. They do what they want in their best interest with no regard for us. I would love to file a lawsuit, but we do not have enough unification among the owners, either. I did contact C-IHC, but have not heard back from them yet.
Yes, anon. 7:50, I didn’t mean that literally – renter – meant it in the sense that you are paying monthly without the rights and benefits of ownership-like renting.
maryanne, you’re really itching to buy in chatham huh? that house is in a section of chatham (near high school) that isn’t so nice hence why it’s cheap by comparable standards. you said you were single and worked in NYC. if i were you i’d at least wait until the late fall to see what properties start to linger. you might find yourself a better value particularly so if you have to do a bit of work. if nothing shows come back in the spring. i have a sneaky suspicion there will be more incentives to lure in a small pool of buyers compared to houses on the market.
i’ve seen the MLS relisting trick done so many times it’s pointless to try to explain it away by a listing expiring. practically every relisting i’ve seen was done before the expiration. i’ve also spoke to several agent friends and the reason they do it is to reset the original asking price so potential buyers don’t think the property is in a free for all and will only go lower considering the spread on orig versus current asking. they also do it so the property shows up on the daily ticker to subscribers (realtors) to the MLS system. kind of like a marketing campaign. remember if houses don’t sell within the first 6 weeks they’re generally stale listings, at least that’s been the case the past couple of years.
Does anyone think the high taxes
on these properties are holding
back any sales?
Richard,
Drop me an email please, nnjbubble@gmail.com
jb
LUMBER PRICES HITITING SEASON LOWS.
WHY?
supply and demand!
Housing related layoffs going to be huge!
NNJ will be impacted huge with Housing Related layoffs.
‘Who Holds The RE Legal Hot Potato?’
Several readers suggested a topic on where the legal chips may fall in a housing downturn. “Who holds the Real Estate legal hot potato(es)? So many fingers in the real estate industrial complex pie.”
“As the bubble breaks, lawsuits from upset buyers, money lenders and the like would seem to become inevitable. Who is most culpable? Are all players sufficiently shielded from a legal perspective such that R/E lawsuits will be fruitless? Will an uptick in legal actions slow or speed up the bust?”
“For example, how about collusion between loan orginators and appraisers? Provable? Actionable? Yet another example, buyers overstating income on stated income loans. Will lenders go after such individuals?”
“Another example, from yesterday, posted on this blog: ‘resale experts are saying that builders are messing up their market by dumping so many built-but-not-sold homes on the market with outsize buying incentives.’ Could recent homebuyers recover damages from a builder who is currently underselling the very same product?”
One reader replied, “I think our legal system needs to be VERY selective about what truly warrants a lawsuit in regards to housing. All out criminal activity; I’ll grant that. But ’steering’ or ‘false promises’ (i.e. a realtor says, ‘Oh this home will double in value in 3 years!’, etc. are IMO unethical, but not illegal. If the false promises are not put in writing, it’s ‘he said, she said’ and would NOT warrant a lawsuit.”
“People need to be responsible for their own actions rather then be allowed to continually play the victim role.”
Another said, “Unfortunately, in a major housing bust there would be very little ‘wealth’ to be redistributed through legal action. Builders learned long ago to use small sub-corporations for every development they ever create. The small sub-corporations go bust, file for bankruptcy or just dissolve, so even if you win a judgment it usually turns up empty.”
“Appraisers are generally covered by insurance, but if they used legitimate comps, they are fairly well insulated.”
“Any real litigation will probably take place between the MBS investors and the loan originators on the grounds of breach of contract, fraud, lack of due diligence, etc. There may also be shareholder or investor suits against the MBS entities for their failures to exercise due diligence and there may be a large number of actions seeking recourse (to return the loans) to the original lenders.”
“There will be an enormous number of prosecutions sought for mortgage fraud. What number of these will be accepted by the states and prosecutors is unknown.”
Another added, “Get ready for BK filings to stave off all the potential lawsuits. This is standard business practice.”
One agreed, “Yep. This is what happened here in the South Bay (LA) back in the mid 90s. This area is made up of mostly smaller mom & pop type builders. In 1997, we were looking for a builder to partner up with. We wanted to build on our Hermosa Beach property. We interviewed at least 5 ‘reputable’ builders. But we also did background checks on these guys too. 4 of the 5 had filed BK at some point in the 90’s.”
“But of course it did not stop them from starting up again. Most of these guys have made a ton of $$ in this latest boom but most are highly highly leveraged today.”
And another, “Here’s another major misrepresentation on the part of the mortgage industry and borrowers; many people bought investment properties and said they were going to live there. They misrepresented that it was an owner-occupied transaction. Underwriting for investment properties is much stricter.”
And finally this, “I know folks at several large consumer plaintiff law firms. (west coast) I have had conversations with all of them months ago about getting up to speed on the potential real estate problems that may arise.”
“Topics tossed around were title companies and mortgage brokers that have in any way participated in offering hints as to how to show financial information in a better light. The worst may revolve around filling out blank tax return forms with information that is different from information on the returns filed with the IRS.”
“Appraisers may have issues to deal with regarding valuing a house to the loan amount requested.”
“There is also a possibility of a case of collusion amongst banks and agents/brokers with regards to steering buyers to preferred lenders and whether or not there were kickbacks for those referrals. I worked in the legal field for 10 years. Have no doubt that there will be some very large scale litigation if prices drop much more.”
It’s going to be a free for all.
Richard, yes. I’ve had my eye on Chatham for a while, but 2 years ago opted to buy a condo closer to the city. I am realizing I do not like the whole condo mentality – the board and all. Maintenance is also very high and I don’t use most of the facilities offered anyway. I am starting to put feelers out again so could wait. I also want to be in walking distance to the train in Chatham. I hear it’s impossible to find parking. There’s a waiting list for a spot.
Just found out this property has been on the market for 6 weeks and was originally listed at 538K. Recently lowered to 508K so I don’t know how much flexibility they’ll have at this point. May look at it next week if it’s still available.
maryanne, if you are interested in the property, make sure to get comps of all status’ed properties in the area for the past 6 months only. you want to see comparables that are still on the market, in contract, closed, etc, then of course go in there and offer at least 5% less than current asking.
Maryanne, sell your condo first, unless you can handle two mortgages for an extended period of time.
Did you see the ad in the Star Ledger from Kaplan (new home builder)? Details are on their site http://www.thinkkaplan.com/
They are offering to pay the difference if prices go down within 3 years!
smk
What happens when the guarantor shutters up?
Well, what happens is that you’re screwed :)
I’m happy renting for now, so I’m not taking them on their offer for their overpriced houses.
smk
SMK,
I saw that ad yesterday too. I guess they really need to move some houses soon.
The problem is, these builders will rarely reduce their asking price. They’ll throw in all kinds of upgrades, cash back at closing, taxes paid at closing, etc. Prices differences between the homes with/without incentives could easily be anywhere from $20k to $60k. But that won’t be reflected in the sale price of the home, so in that case, their bogus offer’s woudln’t help you recover any money.
Thanks, unrealtor. That’s probably what I will do. Although, my building is still turning over quickly. In any event, I probably won’t do anything for a few months unless I see something that I absolutley must have or some tremendous deal comes along. Problem is I have a good mortgage rate right now…doubt I can duplicate that in today’s market.
Anon seeking re in PA
“hi pat, i could certainly use the data.”
Please list a general email for the data.
Pat
I am so glad that I found this site before we start searching for a 2 family house in Bergen county. We are pretty naive about the real estate business. In searching for a buyer’s agent, I thought that getting a reference was an important part of my search. I now realize that most agents don’t even want to bother with our request because we are in the market for a bottom price, $400-450K range. Even this price is a heavy commitment for us. I’ve read through all the suggestions about making the offer…Grim’s low ball 30-40% to 5% below the asking price. Any rule of the thumb suggestion for this price range in Bergen county is appreciated.
AnxioustoBuy
WTF a shack in cedar grove priced like a mansion