From Marketwatch:
Home builders index falls to 15-year low
Home builders’ confidence plunged to a 15-year low in July, reflecting growing worries about rising interest rates and declining affordability, the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell three more points to 39 in July, the lowest since December 1991. A reading of 50 would mean sentiment is balanced equally among builders who think the market is good and those who think it’s poor.
The index peaked at 72 last June and has fallen in 11 months since then. It’s the fastest decline in the 21-year history of the index, which has had a fairly good record of predicting the number of new homes started.
From the NAHB:
Builder Confidence Slips Again In July
Increased concerns about interest rates and housing affordability caused builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes to slip three more notches to 39, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, reported today.
“The HMI is down from its most recent cyclical high of 72 in June of last year, and reflects growing builder uncertainly on the heels of reduced sales and increased cancellations related to eroding affordability as well as an ongoing withdrawal of investors/speculators from the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
…
All three component indexes fell in July. The largest decline was in the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months, which fell five points to 46. The index gauging current sales of new single-family homes fell four points to 43 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell two points to 27.Builders in the West region, who have been the most optimistic in the HMI for some time, recorded the biggest dip in confidence this time around, with a nine-point decline to 51. Builders in the Northeast posted a five-point decline to 36, and builders in the Midwest posted a four-point decline to 21. The HMI for the large South region edged up two points to 50, although this measure still is down considerably from a cyclical high of 77 in June of last year.
watch as the homebuilders pull the rug out from existing home sales.
existing homesellers too dumb/slow to compete with merciless price cuts the builders need to keep their creditors at bay
Kearny,, McMansion?
Nice town, great place to raise
a family.
‘Suspicious’ Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
KEARNY – Fire officials are investigating the cause of a suspicious blaze sparked Saturday night at a “McMansion” under construction on Davis Avenue, Kearny Fire Chief Joe Lapsanski said.
The fire started just before 9 p.m. at the construction site, which consisted only of frames, studs and a foundation, Lapsanski said.
“There was no source for the fire to start,” the chief said. “There was no electricity, no gas to the building.”
The intense blaze had flames shooting 150 feet in the air, Lapsanski said, and the heat shattered windows on nearby buildings and melted aluminum siding on houses 250 feet away.
Kearny firefighters, with the help of Harrison, Jersey City and North Arlington fire departments, were able to get the blaze under control within an hour, Lapsanski said. Only the foundation remained of the building, he said.
Their quick efforts prevented the fire from spreading to the nearby Our Lady of Sorrows Church, Lapsanski said.
One firefighter was injured and treated for an injury after hitting his head while passing a ladder, Lapsanski said.
Jersey City Arson Investigators, state fire marshals and officials from the federal Department of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms were all investigating, Lapsanski said.
NYTIMES fires 250 workers in Edison and closes down a plant
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13916729/
MISERY INDEX GROWING
BOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Hey Bob..OTS, but have you been heading to the shore lately (namely, Sandy Hook?)
http://tinyurl.com/jedup
Humor is healing, no?
Pat
grim said…
‘Suspicious’ Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
Since 2002 there have been quite a few fires in the Englewood and Englewood Cliffs area. I guess if a bunch of your neighbors are knocking down and putting up new, people figure why not have the insurance pick up the tab. Stiff jail sentences is needed.
Englewood and Englewood cliffs are area I am considering buying a house from. Can anybody chime in on the makeup of the neighborhood?
Any information is greatly appreicated.
-newcomer to the area
PhD I sold a house in the area and plan on renting for 2 more years. Your monthly outlay will be 1/2 what you would pay using a traditional mortgage. Englewood’s property revaluations go into effect Jan 07′ Ugly is not a strong enough word. Cliffs the asking prices and builder spec homes are ground zero for the “housing bubble”
ps: old timers from the area recall the 88 boom times, Englewood downtown shops bustling etc. by 94 it was a ghost town.
Englewood cliffs,,
wonderful community, low taxes.
great commute.
I saw very big difference in the makeup of the neighborhood east side of the railroad track and those in the west side of it (and the house price too) can anybody comment on it?
Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002…birds of a feather…
Anonymous said…
“Englewood cliffs,,
wonderful community, low taxes.
great commute.”
7/18/2006 03:44:51 PM
All of it means nothing if you pay $1.1m (median sale in 05′) for a run down ranch, which is really worth maybe $650,000…only worth the 650# because of the great community, low taxes, commute via car to NYC. They share Englewood’s High School; unless your kid is gonna be a rapper or a gang banger…factor in annual per child private High School tuition of $10k to $28k depending upon where.
There are numerous brand new “cheat em and how” pretty looking, cheap materials, builder houses; for sale ranging from $3 and $4 million, listed for over a year now.
on the west side make sure you carry a handgun.
Do you think the average Joe or Betty Realtor@ know that home builders’ confidence is the lowest since 1991?
Is this on their radar as personally impacting them?
Pat
Anonymous said…
“on the west side make sure you carry a handgun.”
7/18/2006 04:07:00 PM
Quiet down folks,State Senator (thanks to Corzine) Loretta Weinberg would not approve. I had a conversation with her when my office was in Leftywood about my right to carry infringed in NJ etc. she said NO way in NJ, the pos that would try to rob me “is really a victim of society and give em whatever they ask”
I have seen listing of some new condo construction that is right next to the golf course in Englewood. I was going to check it out. Does anybody know the location or that condo in particular?
5 story’s of all wood, no steel anywhere, possibility of becoming Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, when a hurricane hits…and it will.
phD Why would you buy now?
Englewood has location, location, location but also has taxes,taxes,taxes. It has some of the highest tax rates in Bergen, plus the schools are terrible. So not only are you paying the highest taxes, you have to pay for private school too (if you have kids). The city government is famously corrupt, and the Englewood school system recently granted lifetime health insurance coverage to employees ensuring skyrocketing taxes for years to come. On the plus side, it’s cosmopolitan, has some really great old houses and estates, a bunch of great restaurants, large & expanding downtown shopping area, a theater that gets name acts, and a very diverse population. I sold my house there last year, and currently renting.
Eng. Cliffs very low taxes, but you will more than make up for tax savings in house purchase price, plus you have the high school issue as mentioned earlier. Prices are ridiculous here.
anon 7:32
just checking out different areas and neighborhoods. I am really new to the area and new to real estate. Therefore, I am going to open houses just so I know what is the “peak” prices and guestimate what might be a good time to dive in…after finally convincing my wife not to buy now
Sounds like Phd is considering either buying now, or “investing” $300K in platinum.
There must be a 3rd option out there somewhere. :-)
As for town selection, check the schools:
http://education.state.nj.us/rc/rc05/menu/01.html
As a long-time Democratic party voter and supporter, I say this: The Democratic party leadership in Bergen County has got to go.
Anon 4:26: You’re full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I’ve worked with her and even if she believes that–a dubious claim–she’s not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits.
anon 7:11
Are you still renting in Englewood? I have been looking to rent in the near future. What are the going rate in Englewood? what might be other comparable areas nearby?
Forget Englewood or the cliffs,
just head on over to Fort Lee.
Much more diverse.
And try Palisades Park, one
town over from Ft.Lee, you will
save money on renting.
Wonderful fully diverse town.
Acaedemies @englewood, for which englewood and englewood cliffs students get preference, is a magnet high school that is one of the best in the state.
Anon 5:15 pm said
“Anon 4:26: You’re full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I’ve worked with her and even if she believes that–a dubious claim–she’s not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits.”
Call her. Wager anyone?
Loretta’s busy.
No calls please.
ps; the truth hurts.
By the way I’m the same “nut” that people like you will be hiding behind if the SH%$ ever hits the fan.
Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002…birds of a feather…
Wasn’t his nickname torch?
School is not a big concern for me. No kids.
:P
“School is not a big concern for me. No kids.”
If you’re buying real estate, schools should be a concern if you plan to sell at some point.
Near universally, good schools = good towns.
Buying a house in a town with bad schools, is on par with buying on a busy street. You may not mind, but someone else will when you sell, and the result is lower resale value.
PhD Englewood – East Hill Large Homes, large property, large taxes, corrupt leftist Dem controlled Gov’t (not the School budget, a friend of ours beat em on that in the 00 election, the people now elect school board members)
Englewood Cliffs – small splits and ranches or mcmansions on small lots, low property taxes, Dem Gov’t with integrity.
it’s official. MLS has moved past 32,000. even in the dog days of summer inventory is creeping up.
Anon 5:35pm said “Loretta’s busy.”
I’ll bet she is.
unrealtor,
I don’t think I need to take the school system into account when I rent, do I?
Maybe it will be an advantage for me, I can rent it places where there might be less than perfect school system.
Any suggestions?
Dwight Engle. Great School.
Really wonderful for the kids.
Could not do better.
Diverse.
Danth Report available to the pubic; said in their first report to the powers that be in Englewood that the 99 cent store is bad for Englewood. In their second report they said the McDonalds is bad for Englewood also Sugar Hill Studios per Englewoods ‘Master plan’
All three burnt to the ground.
Anonymous said…
“Dwight Engle. Great School.
Really wonderful for the kids.
Could not do better.
Diverse. ”
7/18/2006 06:10:04 PM
Yuup you really get to hone your boxing skills.
Let’s see they have metal detectors,can you still get your
kid’s handgun into class?
pHd you can rent a decent house for $3500 month
No, the school system is largely irrelevant when you rent unless you have kids.
I would suggest Fort Lee over Englewood though.
32k inventory. Wow.
But this is just a moderate adjustment,reflecting a normal
market.
Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value.
To much negative here.
How about river edge?
Any comment on that area is greatly appreciated
Anonymous said…
reinvestor101:
Missed ya!
Pat
Ha! You only missed assaulting my posts and trying to twist my words in your mad rush to forment ill will towards homeowners and investors. I’ve not forgotten your distinction as being worst than even Booya Bob. You deceptively claim to be a five foot little lady, but I don’t trust you at all.
Watch your step lady. I’ve got my eye on you.
Does the torch Blog. Someone
get a hold of him, He could
brief us on Englewood.
He’s got contacts,
Anon 6:24pm Anonymous said…
“Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value.”
Really?
Always, you just have to hold.
and maintain your piece.
Great schools, best paid teachers,
and staff.
Great Police, the best Fire protection, Schools have best
graduation records, and all
students go on to college.
Bergen County one of the richest
in the country.
But you have to make a buck to live here.
Bergen County is not even the richest county in NJ. Morris and Somerset County are typically NJ’s richest counties (with one or the other being in the lead). ll
Having fun renting?
http://mortgagenewsdaily.com/7142006_Real_Estate_Tax_Deduction.asp
In 2003, 35 million taxpayers used the home mortgage deduction, deducting an average of $9,650 for each filer and 39 million taxpayers took the real estate tax deduction with an average of more than $3,000 per filer. These are the most widely used deductions under the federal tax code.
Uh, why all the talk about Englewood Cliffs and Bergen County in a thread about home builders’ confidence dropping? What am I missing?
anon 7:26, you have to look at the net cost per month when comparing renting versus buying. if it costs you $1000 less a month to rent than buy even with the tax deductions, why would you buy? maybe if you’re an idiot.
Reinvestor..I really did miss ya!
Hehehe..only a male would ever think a woman would lie about being 5′ tall!
For anyone interested in int’l economic housing analysis:
http://tinyurl.com/ansnj
I didn’t read each page, but it looks like there may be a couple of talking points in there.
anon 7:26pm You have not done the math.
1. mortgage interest is an expense. (50 cents from every dollar, might be a write-off, the other 50 cents is gone)
2. property tax is an expense. 100% gone.
3. maintenance is an expense. 100% gone.
Rent is an expense 100% gone.
If you buy a home it is critical, not to overpay.
Those who have money understand this. It hasn’t been a good time to be on the buy side in many years.
“I don’t think I need to take the school system into account when I rent, do I?”
My mistake. If you’re renting and don’t have kids, then schools don’t matter.
However, you may consider renting in a town with good schools where you’ll likely buy later to ‘test drive’ that town before making a commitment to buy there.
Prices fell in Bergen all the same during the last bust. You are fooling yourself if you think an area is isolated because of some “special” reason. Nothing more than wishful thinking.
grim
1. I live in north east Bergen county. The price has been falling, though not as much as it should.
It seems like people have been pulling their houses from market as houses are not moving at all.
2. Englewood vs. Englewood Cliff.
Since I have kids, I wouldn’t consider any of these places.
Some part of Englewood is very nice and it’s getting much nicer as orthodox Jewish population has been moving in as Teaneck orthodox area is getting real full.
Would I buy a house in Englewood? no.
Would I buy a house in Englewood Cliff? maybe once my kids are in college or they go to boarding schools.
3. What’s with Pat and ReInvestor? Love Hate relationship? :)
In bergen county people will
just pull their property .
Why because their’s money.
Not like many other parts of NJ.
We have the highest paid teachers,
police, etc. They can keep it going.
Does anybody else out there think the stuff that goes on in this blog is, well..
like a bunch of crazy *ss relatives getting together?
We have the Queens whiner, obsessed with jeans, who absolutely refuses to reduce his cc debt.
We have paranoid Pat, forever looking over her shoulder, adrift in a sea of male feifdoms.
We have Reinvestor..looking like Mike Meyers in a Sprockets skit, “That has disturbed me to the point of insanity. There. I am insane now.”
We have Uncle Bob..no explanation needed.
Of course, we have the “sane” ones..I think.
property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn’t increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol
Little Ferry has some wonderful
rentals. Good bargin, you can
even shop for your car right their
on rt.46. Great selection. Instant
financing.
Easy commute.
Isn’t Little Ferry always under the threat of Flooding like tonight?
anon at 10:05, you are categorically correct. Too Funny. :)
Little Ferry.
The only reason I know that town is because they have World Video, and the love to advertise on late night cable channels.
Love it.
Am I the only one who detests Route 46 (at least until it merges with Route 3) ? What an eyesore.
“Anonymous said…
property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn’t increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol ”
7/18/2006 10:39:23 PM
Midget; Like I have posted on here before I sold 2 houses and a small commercial building. Sqft 5500 in Englewood East Hill
Florida 4500 sqft, never thought about it until now thats 10,000 sq ft of house in 2 different locales; best part Fl house paid cash…yes I wrote a check, little person, the Nj house I owed less than 20% of the value when I punted. I rent now, little person.
ps: the houses were less than 10% of my real net worth.
Richard said…
“anon 10:39, you aren’t gettin it.”
Richard he got it, he’s a little person. I hope the dopy sob was a buyer anytime in the last 4 – 5 years.
phd: River Edge is getting slaughtered by taxes,little capes and ranches 8k to 10k year.
The moronic voters just this past Sept, approved a referendum to do massive additions to the elementary schools, under the mistaken belief encouraged by the BOE, that the state will give the town some money to go towards it. Well the state promised, but they are under no obligation to give that money, and the money promised is only about 15% of the total cost.
And we all know of course the delightful state of affairs with our NJ budget, so the money in my opinion will not be coming.
Once built this massive new structure is built, they will have to hire many new teachers, teachers aides, custodian staff, heating electric etc. Only now is this staring to dawn on people. The people advocating caution were accused of being ant-education.
All of this funding will come from the home owners, as the town has almost no rateables away from residences. Any body fro taxes of 12k or more on a 50 year old cape?
If I were you I would consider the Montvale, Park Ridge, or Rivervale, or Wyckoff/ALlendale.
Richard,
Personally, I think your a liar. But hey nothing wrong with that – our President is a liar too. Hopefully you can crack open one of your little windows in your apartment and get some air with this heatwave. I left my central AIR on all day :-) Hey.. do you take your laundry in garbage bags down to the coin-op? I just throw mine in my washer/dryer.
Cheers to the renters!
Oh yeah. The FED spoke today regarding inflation and interest rates and it appears as though the rate hikes are coming to an end. I wonder what this website will try to come up with next to scare people into not buying since interest rates won’t be going up. HMM!
Hey Anom: People have been assuming that rate hikes have been ending sicne last June, the old we are in teh 8th inning.
But since you are uninformed, and unread, no surprise there.
Oh we ar not scaring anybody, we are trying to educate those who migh not now, and share information with each other. We have to, in order to protect the uninformd from people like you.