Slowdown ending or just beginning?

From BusinessWeek:

Is Housing Out of the Woods?
by Marc Hogan

Depending on whom you ask, the winds may already be shifting for the housing market. All year, economists have warned of a bursting housing bubble and its potential impact on economic growth. However, a recent stream of encouraging data has some prominent prognosticators changing their tune.

One of the first in line was Alan Greenspan. As recently as May 18, the former Federal Reserve chairman put an exclamation point on the housing slowdown when he declared, “The boom is over.” But now, the “worst may well be over,” Greenspan was quoted as saying Oct. 7, after mortgage applications posted their biggest weekly gain since June, 2005.

While the most bearish scenarios may be becoming increasingly unlikely, the housing market probably isn’t out of the woods yet. Even the most upbeat forecasts call for new-home construction to keep declining nearly as much as it already has so far. Meanwhile, underlying economic figures may contradict their milder headlines.

Others maintain that the housing downturn still has a long way to go. “Commentary suggesting housing demand is recovering, based on the latest homebuilder and mortgage applications readings, appears to be more wishful thinking than fact,” says Keith Hembre, chief economist at First American Funds, in an Oct. 20 report.

After years of defying naysayers’ predictions, the housing market has finally cooled in recent months, by virtually all accounts. However, the debate over when the current slowdown will end may be just beginning.

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116 Responses to Slowdown ending or just beginning?

  1. James Bednar says:

    I recommend taking a look at the full text of the story (yes, I know it’s BusinessWeek). It’s a good summary of current opinion. I left quite a bit out of the main-page article to try to keep the text I posted balanced.

    jb

  2. James Bednar says:

    From the Boston Herald:

    Dark days for home sales: Weakest Sept. in decade

    Massachusetts is facing what looks like its worst autumn real estate market since 1996, with no clear signs that prices are bottoming out.

    “I think we still have some more to go on the downside,” economist John Bitner of Boston-based Eastern Bank said yesterday after the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported housing’s weakest September in a decade.

    MAR said just 3,435 Massachusetts houses changed hands last month – a 23.9 percent plunge from September 2005 and the lowest September volume since 1996.

    The group also said the median house fetched $341,000, down 5.3 percent from a year earlier and 9 percent below the market’s $375,000 August 2005 peak.

    The condo market recorded an even sharper slowdown, with the number of units changing hands declining 27.8 percent – the biggest annual drop since April 1995. MAR added that the median condo sold for $270,000 last month, flat from September 2005.

  3. UnRealtor says:

    Sure, 5 years of obscene housing price increases have unwound in a matter of months. Happens all the time.

  4. UnRealtor says:

    Time for more appreciation, now that the market has returned to ‘normal.’

  5. Ron says:

    Yep, It’s time for another 5-year bull market for real estate.

  6. bubblewatcher says:

    Yes – let’s disregard all data, past trends, what makes sense, and human nature. It’s headed back up for sure….

  7. v says:

    A bubble exists if economists start feeling comfortable about negative departures from past trends.

  8. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    “David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, blames the declines on inflated housing prices. In a recent analysis, Lereah wrote that housing prices simply got too high, cutting into affordability. ‘Sellers need to abandon unreasonable expectations about the value of their homes,’ he wrote.”

  9. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    Countrywide net income up 2%

    Countrywide Financial Corp. on Tuesday said third-quarter net income for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose 2% to $1.03 a share, from $634 million, or $1.03 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue climbed 4% to $2.82 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of $1.08 a share and revenue of $2.95 billion, on average. The company cited a slowdown in its mortgage banking unit as it experiences “the effects of a transitional market.” Countrywide adjusted its 2006 earnings target to $4.10 to $4.50 a share, from $4 to $4.80 a share. Analysts are currently expecting earnings of $4.37 a share.

  10. Richard says:

    it’s hard to interpret the data of today in terms of future movements because we’ve just gone through an unprecedented 5 year run-up and we’re going into the slowest period seasonally. it’s like triple witching day. right now the market could be exceeding on the downside but snap back to something not so scary during the spring. the spring will most likey show something not catastrophic but surely not optimistic for those that paid peak prices during the bubble. the real story will have to wait until then IMO.

  11. Kara Homes` customers is not out of the woods yet !!!

  12. SAS says:

    wasn’t their a thread about health care in NJ ?

    very important topic.

    SAS

  13. James Bednar says:

    From the Daily Record:

    College tuition,fees up more than 6%

    College price increases slowed this year but they again topped inflation, and financial aid isn’t keeping pace, a new report says.

    Tuition and fees at public four-year public colleges rose $344, or 6.3 percent, to an average of $5,836 for the 2006-07 academic year, according to the College Board’s annual “Trends in College Pricing” report, released today.

    Accounting for inflation, prices nationwide rose just 2.4 percent — the lowest rise in six years, and the third straight time the gap between prices and overall inflation has narrowed.

    Tuition and fees at private four-year colleges rose 5.9 percent overall, to $22,218.

    In New Jersey, tuition at public, four-year schools rose 9 percent, from an average of $8,563 to $9,298. Tuition for two-year schools rose 8 percent, from $2,954 to $3,187, and four-year private schools rose 5 percent, from $23,857 to $25,155.

  14. James Bednar says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Help! Home for sale – Morrisett and Maldve

    An Austin couple, Richard Morrisett and Regina Maldve, had a lot to learn about selling a home. That education is costing them big money.

    They had put their three-bedroom, two-bath house on the market in April for $419,000, then dropped it to $399,000. In June, just as they were moving to their new home, they finished negotiating a verbal offer of $393,000.

    “We said, ‘Sure, that sounds great. We’ll take it,'” says Maldve.

    Eight hours later, they had another bid – at $399,000. That’s where the trouble began. They failed to land either buyer and the couple is still trying to move the property.

    Morrisett is a full professor at the College of Pharmacy at the University of Texas and Maldve is a research associate there. These are not intellectually challenged people.

    But they did make mistakes. One was trusting too much in their real estate agent.

  15. Rich In NNJ says:

    “wasn’t their a thread about health care in NJ ?”

    Jersey Residents Squeezed

  16. InfoDiva says:

    Sure, 5 years of obscene housing price increases have unwound in a matter of months. Happens all the time.

    No one is suggesting that.

    One of my peeves about this blog is that so many of you see this as all-or-nothing: 40 -50% declines in current prices and the infamous “greedy grubbing” seller on a bread line, much to your delight.

    How about a more nuanced view: 15-20% declines especially in overbuilt areas, a few years of stagnation at those price levels, and then a return to more typical 5% /yr price appreciation?

    I was especially struck by a poster on another thread who said that he would “rent for the rest of his life” so long as renting was cheaper than buying.

    I’ve said it before: Who’s really the “greedy grubber” here?

  17. InvestorDavid says:

    Watching RE market going down is like watching a slow motion movie. It will play out for next 2-4 years. It just began.

    One house I have been watching: last March in Market at $1.8M and went down to $1.6M last December. Now, it’s sitting at $1.4M. The builder took it off the market today. Maybe it’s being sold? or just took off the MLS for a week with a new price?

  18. UnRealtor says:

    Greed is Good.

    But don’t cry when you get burned playing the game. Accountability.

    How’s that for “nuance”?

  19. UnRealtor says:

    InvestorDavid, posted earlier a house that was listed for $1.2M, and closed @ $772K two weeks ago.

    Posted another bought in 2004 for $755K and sold last week for $705K.

    The only thing that makes my day more than fresh inventory, are rapidly-declining comps.

  20. Hard Place says:

    I felt I had to inject some common sense to a seller’s realtor. I sent them the following message:

    “I’ve been taking a look at multi-families in the surrounding areas from an investment perspective. The $845k listing is well above an existing property listed at $729k that can be rented for almost similar prices. Given the similar location and layouts of 3BR’s the only measurable difference is the amount of baths, slightly larger lot, slightly smaller apt and slightly lower taxes for your client’s unit. It is not a compelling investment at it’s current asking price and would think that the property will stagnate unless the price is lowered significantly. Good luck with your listing.

  21. Spelunker says:

    “How about a more nuanced view: 15-20% declines especially in overbuilt areas, a few years of stagnation at those price levels, and then a return to more typical 5% /yr price appreciation?”

    is this forecast being more “nuanced” or sympathetic? Were the price increases in the past years nuanced? Not in any way! Why would the decline be nuanced? Tis dark days comin’ for the greedy grubbers. Aarrrggh!

  22. Jaywalk says:

    How about a more nuanced view: 15-20% declines especially in overbuilt areas, a few years of stagnation at those price levels, and then a return to more typical 5% /yr price appreciation?

    I think the historical average price appreciation is more like 1.5% per year.

  23. NavyVet says:

    I need an opinion. This is the Rent vs Buy calculator I’ve been using. Allows granular control of the variables and even graphs out the breakpoints. Click on the “Am I Better Off Renting” link. http://navyfcu.org/loans/mortgage-calc.html

    Do the regulars here think this is a fairly reliable way of assessing rent vs buy from a strictly financial perspective or are there other variables or calculators I should be considering. I’m moving to Monmouth/Ocean county in a little over a month but will only be here for 5-6 yrs and I’m trying to make sure I make the best decision I can. Thanks for any advice provided.

  24. Spelunker says:

    NavyVet i can tell you for sure the prices in Ocean and Monmouth are inflated AND dropping. If you were to buy now i sincerely believe you will not be able to get back what you put in at the end of 5-6 years. I believe the general opinion here is that 5-6 years from now would be entering the “bottom” of the cycle.

  25. dg says:

    Here’s a seller who hasn’t gotten the message:

    MLS 2331047 in Blairstown Twp.

    Listed 10/15/2006 for $925,000 (already bizarrely overpriced), and just hiked within the last few days to $1,199,000.

    At the same time, the description was changed from “Spectacular view” to “Million Dollar View.” I guess there’s a $274K premium during fall foliage season.

  26. waters says:

    I was especially struck by a poster on another thread who said that he would “rent for the rest of his life” so long as renting was cheaper than buying.

    I’ve said it before: Who’s really the “greedy grubber” here? I don’t get it. What’s wrong or greedy about that statement?

  27. James Bednar says:

    Nine-hundred thousand dollar view just doesn’t have the same ring to it..

    jb

  28. factsrule says:

    infodiva 3 bed room 1.5 bath house in my town in 2000 225K, Same hosue 2005 asking 550K (but sitting for months) 40% decline equals 330K.

    The potential seller still made 105K in 5 or 6 years, still a little less then 20% appreciation a year. Nothing greedy or griubbing about that.

  29. SG says:

    I think the historical average price appreciation is more like 1.5% per year.

    In NJ metro areas, the historic rate has been CPI + about 3%. See the chart at following,

    http://www.geocities.com/skgala/newark.htm

  30. Pat says:

    Navyvet, that calculator looks a little more objective than some, and more transparent. In other words, it doesn’t perform a lot of calcs in the background (that you can’t see or have no variable discretion on).

    What I don’t see on there is an implicit inflation assumption, although the results state “in today’s dollars”, so they’re applying inflation…just don’t know what rate.

    Also, there’s no variable there to determine what you would have alternately earned on your downpayment, unless they’re assuming same as int. rate on the mortgage, or same rate you add in for appreciation rate on the house (which really wouldn’t be a good assumption).

    You could try four or more other on-line calculators and compare your results.

    http://www.ginniemae.gov/rent_vs_buy/rent_vs_buy_calc.asp?Section=YPTH

    http://calculators.interest.com/content/calculators/rentvsbuy.asp

    http://www.lendingtree.com/smartborrower/Mortgage-Calculators/Are-you-better-off-renting-.aspx

    http://www.bankrate.com/gookeyword/mortgage-advisers/rent-vs-buy.asp

  31. skep-tic says:

    “I was especially struck by a poster on another thread who said that he would “rent for the rest of his life” so long as renting was cheaper than buying.

    I’ve said it before: Who’s really the “greedy grubber” here?”

    InfoDiva– you bring up a relevant point. There is greed both on the way up and on the way down. Buyers shouldn’t let their glee at price declines overwhelm them. You don’t necessarily need to wait for the absolute bottom in order to get a good deal.

    That said, there is very little to suggest that we are anywhere close to the bottom. We’ve had nearly 100% appreciation in 5 yrs and lately prices are off YoY less than 5%.

  32. Pat says:

    Skep-tic and InfoDiva…not sure how renting for life because it’s cheaper than buying is being greedy.

    If I go on vacation every year, and rent a place instead of buying one, because it’s cheaper, is that also greedy, or common sense?

    What’s the diff?

  33. Pat says:

    Oh…I never viewed saving money as being greedy. Maybe cheap, but not greedy.

    I thought greedy meant on the taking end. If you are taking in something, then you are greedy if you take more than you offer.

  34. skep-tic says:

    I don’t think renting is greedy. I was just quoting InfoDiva. Right now, renting is smart.

    On another note– interesting bit of news from Reuters, via Ben Jones’ blog:

    From Reuters. “Baby boomers are not flocking to cities from suburbia, defying some expectations and posing problems for some developers, according to a new study.”

    “Flying in the face of other research showing suburbanites with a penchant for urban culture lured into buying second homes in cities, this study found just 2 percent of empty-nest retirement age suburbanites can be expected to make such a shift.”

    Bad news for all of these urban renewal projects. Guess these condos will have to drop in price until young people can afford them

  35. lisoosh says:

    Because of course Greenspan has been so spot on about the housing market all along.

  36. InvestorDavid says:

    Talking to a friend who does mortgage along with foreclosure “bail-out”.

    Only houses she is closing are the ones in Pennsylvania in the $60K-$80K range.

    She tells me that most of her mortgage banker friends and real estate agents have not made a penny since last Sept, looking for any jobs including bank teller jobs.

    Time for these people to go back to their old jobs as Macy’s perfume girls?

  37. Seneca says:

    I know this is a NJ board but this article caught my attention:

    Dark days for home sales: Weakest Sept. in decade
    http://business.bostonherald.com/realestateNews/view.bg?articleid=163847

    The Massachusetts Association of Realtors does not seem to be towing the NAR line and in fact, is downright honest. Median homes prices down 9% in Mass. compared to August 2005 peaks. Downward pressure on prices expected for the next several months. Worst market since autumn 1996.

    A Boston-based economist concludes that absent a rising population or a stronger-than-average economy, there won’t be a turnaround.

    How does Northern NJ compare to Mass.?

  38. Richard says:

    prices have been gyrating all over the universe the past 18 months so it’s been difficult to really assess real property values. the RE market uses comps but i have a feeling if this gyration continues they’ll try to introduce some other valuation method due to the inaccuracy of the traditional one. hey you have to adapt or die.

  39. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    InfoDiva Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 11:50 am
    Sure, 5 years of obscene housing price increases have unwound in a matter of months. Happens all the time.

    No one is suggesting that.

    One of my peeves about this blog is that so many of you see this as all-or-nothing: 40 -50% declines in current prices and the infamous “greedy grubbing” seller on a bread line, much to your delight.

    Bleed”em Dry!

    Markets work in both directions. To bad some are cheering for sanity.

  40. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    What the hell is wrong with 30-40% price corrections when prices went up 100% in 5 years?

    Tough! Suck it up and accept it. Gravy Train has derailed and no more arrogant homeowners goping around braggin their house just increased another $100,000 this year.
    How about some losses!

    BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA

    NO MERCY NO SYMPATHY JUST GET THE BEST BLEED’EM DRY DEAL YOU CAN GET.

    Think about the starving realtors and all their spin over the years cheering prices up. reluctantly after NO COMMISH for many months they scold sellers to lower their unreasonable prices.

    BLEED”EM DRY!

    Bob………

  41. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    It’s kick and abuse a realtor week.

    Knock them into submission with their own game of psychological manipulation.

  42. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Lets get all pumped up kicking around a few realtors and a few Grubbing greedy sellers.Do not want to leave these greedy grubbbers out.

    Please share your realtor/Greeding Grubbing abuse stories here.

    Babababa

    BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  43. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    The Misery Index is rising!

    How does it feel? Keep your eyes open and watch the PapapaPANIC in Spring 2007 Housing Bust. the last of the Greedy grubbing Dreamers will accept reality.

    After years of arrogance and greed running wild in RElalalaland now we can kick’em around into submission.

    BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  44. Jay says:

    “The Massachusetts Association of Realtors does not seem to be towing the NAR line and in fact, is downright honest.”

    There is a more independent source of market numbers in Mass. (The Warren Group) that the MAR has to compete with. There was an article about a month ago that showed a major divergence between the two organizations numbers, making the MAR look like they manipulated the numbers. They were embarrassed and forced to come clean.

  45. skep-tic says:

    Massachusetts realtors are throwing sellers under the bus in an effort to increase transactions. Another few months of crappy transaction volume will have the same effect in the tri-state area.

    All of the industrial northeastern states are pretty similar– Mass just tends to be a little more extreme in its gyrations. All of the NE states have flat to declining and rapidly aging populations and high cost of living relative to income. All of them except for NH have high taxes too. Job creation is awful in most of these areas.

    In short, I think they are more similar than they are disimilar. What is happening in MA will be happening here within months.

  46. InfoDiva says:

    Skep-tic and InfoDiva…not sure how renting for life because it’s cheaper than buying is being greedy.

    Putting cost above all else–thinking of nothing but the bottom line– is “greedy.”

    How many of you fondly remember growing up in a rented apartment?

    As I’ve asked before: If this thing takes 10 years to play out to its absolute bottom–are you willing to rent for that long?

  47. UnRealtor says:

    “As I’ve asked before: If this thing takes 10 years to play out to its absolute bottom–are you willing to rent for that long?”

    Not looking for the “absolute bottom” just avoiding the top (which is a 100-year-high).

  48. skep-tic says:

    I’m sure buying based on emotion was fun back when houses were $80,000.

    If I had a Dolorean with a flux capacitator, I’d be right there with you.

    Unfortunately, it 2006, and the same house now costs $800,000.

  49. UnRealtor says:

    From Ben’s blog:

    Up to 4% of America’s mortgaged homeowners might lose their homes to foreclosure in coming months, one of the nation’s largest lenders predicted Monday, as those homeowners find themselves trapped by heavy debt and the housing slump.

    “This downturn is going to be tougher because we’ve been though an unprecedented period” of good times, Michael Perry, CEO of Indymac Bank of California. told about 6,000 Mortgage Bankers Association conventioneers.

    A media firestorm is ahead, he warned, and one target is the newer, more aggressive lending practices that lenders call “exotic” or “non-traditional.”

    Other speakers agreed that the next year or two could be rough for borrowers and lenders alike. “It’s going to be a fairly tough correction,” said Dick Syron, CEO of Freddie Mac. “There’s going to be a lot of heat about this, a lot of noise.”

    http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=522107

  50. twice shy says:

    MA bears watching. The decline there is approaching a significant level. I know a realtor on the outer Cape who serves the second-home market and she reports her income this year is down 70%. This is a top producer w/ 25 yrs. experience.

    MA can rise fast and fall hard. There are parallels to NJ, and MA could be the canary in the open house.

  51. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    “That’s because the damages could be enormous, said Daniel H. Mudd, CEO of Fannie Mae in Washington, the nation’s largest mortgage financier. ‘Getting more people into homes is a good thing,’ Mudd said, ‘but it’s not entirely clear that everyone knew what they were getting into”

    It’s hilarious how well these ceo’s awarded themselves huge perks and pay packages when they could do no wrong, but don’t think for a second they will take a pay cut for not anticipating this disaster.

    Bleed’em Dry!

    Bob…….

  52. waters says:

    Putting cost above all else–thinking of nothing but the bottom line– is “greedy.”

    How many of you fondly remember growing up in a rented apartment?
    1) You can rent a nicer house than you can buy right now, so why wouldn’t you have fond memories of it?
    2) A much better word for your scenario is miserly, not greedy.

  53. waters says:

    … and for the record, I don’t think sellers are “greedy” either. What are they supposed to do, sell for under market value? Give me a break.

  54. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    InfoDiva Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 2:24 pm
    Skep-tic and InfoDiva…not sure how renting for life because it’s cheaper than buying is being greedy.

    Putting cost above all else–thinking of nothing but the bottom line– is “greedy.”

    How many of you fondly remember growing up in a rented apartment?

    As I’ve asked before: If this thing takes 10 years to play out to its absolute bottom–are you willing to rent for that long?”

    Getting a little desperate with your psychological twist and spin. Don’t worry Diva, prices are already tanking, 12-15% by my best estimates and we have more misery on the downside,for dreaming grubbers of course, not well financed conservatiely minded buyers.

    This train wreck will play out faster to the downside than 10 years. the bulk of th epain is in 2007-08 so don’t worry you may be able to stop wrapping hoagies at subway in 2-3 years.

    BLEED”EM DRY…

    Bob

  55. Jay says:

    We are experiencing what is likely to be a major decline. Why would anyone buy now? Wouldn’t any sensible person just sit back and see what happens? Does anyone think that the market will snap back all of a sudden and resume 20% appreciation per year? I would much rather own then rent, but I am not going to be stupid about it.

  56. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    You could of said this 2 years ago and the “Drones” went ahead and signed the slavery contract. The “Drones” are all in now so only a handful left to be had.
    Drones all work, no play and monthly debt payments eating up all their cashflow.
    You call that the Amwerican Dream?

    BLEED”EM DRY..

    Bob

  57. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    “The American Dream” what a misused propaganda term.

    “The American Nightmare” for most of these Drones that bought in the last 3 years.

    Think for yourself. Don’t expect a commissioned person to do it for you.

    BLEED”EM DRY

    Bob

  58. skep-tic says:

    anyone have any perspective on why the Boston area is falling faster than NYC-area?

  59. v says:

    waters,
    If you are not able to sell at “market value” then the sale price is not at market value. Market Value is what an interested but not desperate buyer would be willing to pay.

  60. Al says:

    I believe it was me who said: “I will rent for the rest of my life if renting is cheaper that buying”

    I stand firmly behind every letter and space of this sentence :)
    let me explain why:
    Buying should be cheaper that renting.

    1. Buying = The biggest one for me: giving up opportunity to move easilly. (6% realtors commidsion always was a huge deal untill last 5 years).

    2. Buying = you are responsible for everything on upkeep of your house, taxes – (which means that home owners donating my kids schools.

    3. Ctastrofic events – insurance company will not give you enough to rebuild your house – look what is happening after Katrina.

    4. Both home prices and rents are tied to incomes.(period, no discussion accepted here.)

    5.When there is not enough money collected by your towm the hardest hit are always home-owners.

    SO the House Owninership with all its magnificent “Homeownership Pride” comes as huge responsibility which must be offset by “saving” money by owning not Loosing money.

    The reason for that is:

    The LIQUIDITY OF THE WORKFORCE is changing the way we live in the past 20 years. It was not uncommon for people in 70th to live all their life in one town – than home ownership made sense.

    Right now statistics: Average Americam moving for new job every 7 years!!!!!!

    So here you have it – you are almost expected to move in 7 years – I know for my job it is possible to move every 6-7years – (the only way to advance is to change companies – in your company it is almost impossible to advance up significantly (that is the reality of med/large corporate america today)

    Yet you will rush in, buy house, despite all unpracticality of it!
    Why do it?? – because of
    1. Mass media hype of home ownership.
    2. Huge appreciation, but wait -As i said home prices are tied to salaries.

    now 2 would not be true if we would have 10% hosing in US and everybody else would live in cardboard boxes. But in US there are very few homeless people so the housing is ABANDANT.
    Ohh hell the rate of “HOMEOWNERSHIP” (if you can call ownership being a slave to mortage)ISAT ALL TIMES HIGH – 69%. And than there are apartments, ne whomes/conds and so on.

    SO As I said before and I will say it again: “I will rent forever as long as it is cheaper than buying”

    I believe we will see paradigm will change in next 20 years – renting will NORM and ONLY people with expremelly HIGH JOB STABILITY – police, Medical workers, and billionaires will be owning their houses.
    EVERYBODY ELSE WILL JUST OWN PART OF THE “RET”S (REAL ESTATE TRUST FUNDS) AS PART OF THEIR PORTFOIOUS

    P.S. I am sorry I am using CAPS not as SHOUT but as EMPHASIS. (i probably could have used text and text but I am too lazy to retype my message.

  61. SAS says:

    “One of my peeves about this blog”

    know what one of my peeves is??
    people whom the incorrect adjectives to describe themselves.

    Where is the beef?

  62. Al says:

    skep-tic Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 2:54 pm
    anyone have any perspective on why the Boston area is falling faster than NYC-area?

    Silly question – Wall Street profits at record high – and every Wall Street worker supports 4 service workers. Corporate america doing very well right now, redistributing money from China and India and Asia and Getting their % from it.

  63. SAS says:

    “Putting cost above all else–thinking of nothing but the bottom line– is “greedy.”

    Who is putting cost above? People just don’t want to be burned financially. If ones finances are in check, odds are their personal life is in check too. Not counting hollywood or sports stars..their screwed up to begin with.

    “How many of you fondly remember growing up in a rented apartment?”

    I grew up in rented trailer in the sticks. I loved it. What will you pass judgedment on next?

    “As I’ve asked before: If this thing takes 10 years to play out to its absolute bottom–are you willing to rent for that long? ”

    If one understands arbitrage, and has good control over their finances. why not?

    Infodiva? Where is the info? or is it nit pick diva? What is it that makes you a diva? Can you sing like Whitney Houston? If so..awesome, then you are a diva. Just remember “crack is whack”.

    Just giving you a hard time, so don’t get upset, feel free to poke at me ;)

    SAS

  64. SAS says:

    know what one of my peeves is??
    people whom the incorrect adjectives to describe themselves.

    he he…

    that should read:
    know what one of my peeves is??
    people who use the incorrect adjectives to describe themselves.

  65. Jay says:

    “Silly question”

    No such thing.

  66. Al says:

    Putting cost abouve everything else is responsible. If I am to buy one of these overpriced homes, and go bankrupt at the end responsible people -the ones who are paying their taxes, paying off their credit cards and homes will end up paying for me – that is being greedy and irresponsible. Because you know that if the worse happen you can get rid of your debts. I say Cancel Bankrupsy in this country. It is too easy to get rid of debts at MY EXPENSE. Make people pay all they own with interest 25 years later when they finally making it – that would instantly take care of bubbles.

  67. NJGal says:

    “How many of you fondly remember growing up in a rented apartment?”

    Gee, think highly of yourself much? I knew plenty of people who did this, and they didn’t grow up to be nasty, judgmental “divas” who think highly of themselves just because they “own” a home.

  68. Al says:

    But again this is not how you win the elections….

  69. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Year To Date Growth in Realtor Membership (End of January though End of September)

    2006: 7.8
    2005: 13.1
    2004: 11.6
    2004: 9.6

    It figures fools rushing in at the peak (2005)

    Would expect a collapse next year similar to house prices then the grind lower until 2009.

    HOUSING IS PLUNGING. DO NOT BE A FOOL AND BUY ANYWHERE NEAR PEAK 2005 PRICES.

    Do Not be a Drone!

    Bleed’em Dry

    Bob

  70. Al says:

    BOOOYAAA :)

  71. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 32,699 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site.

    It’s always a great time to buy? WRONG!

    If it is such a great time to buy won’t don’t these glut of realtors buy 5 houses each and reduce supply and build a RE empire?

    DO NOT BUY A HOUSE ANYWHERE NEAR THESE PEAK 2005 PRICE.
    Might as well plaster a “D” across your chest “D” dor Drone.

    Boooooooyaaaaaaaaa

    Bob

  72. Rich In NNJ says:

    Maybe it’s just me… but other than the typical 3 posts in a row and the sign off, it doesn’t seem like the original Booyaa Bob.

    Rich

  73. UnRealtor says:

    I dunno, I have no remorse or guilt about getting the most for the least.

    When I go to buy a new car, the salesperson is never a happy camper when I drive away.

    If a seller (home, car, or otherwise) is doing high-fives after you walk out the door, you may have a karmic boost, but you’re really just the next sucker.

    No seller is forced to make a deal, and when I buy a home, the seller will probably not be smiling at the closing table, because they’ll be imagining all their lost “equity.” But in reality, that they’re at the closing table in the first place, means it’s a fair deal, or they wouldn’t be there.

    But no bastard is going to do high-fives at my expense. Don’t be cavalier with your life’s savings, it’s all business.

  74. Grim Lies says:

    Keep Renting, Pay my mortgage for me I love it :)

  75. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    “Grim Lies Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
    Keep Renting, Pay my mortgage for me I love it :)”

    You are the lying snake. How’s the negative cashflow doing for you? Can’t cover your mtg and expenses with that rent?
    Not at these ripoff prices. ….Does not compute. Vultured several properties back in last forgotten bubble and could cover epxenses easily at those prices. These stupid prices it does not work Dummy!

    Keep up the great work Grimster exposing the slime out there. BLEED”EM DRY. To many arrogant greedy fools running around out their thinking they are RE tycoons. Got to have a real net worth first.
    Babababa

    Boooooooooooyaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    Bob…….

  76. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Currently, there are 32,699 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site.

    hehehehe!!

    Shortage of what?

    We got a glut of dummies…..

    Don’t be a dummy.

  77. InfoDiva says:

    they didn’t grow up to be nasty, judgmental “divas” who think highly of themselves

    NJ Gal,

    Wow, you guys can sure dish it out, but you’re mighty quick to take offense.

    I’ve been called every name in the book by you folks, and you all know it. I refrain from personal attacks, but you feel free to call me “nasty” and “judgmental.”

    The sheer vehemence of the attacks I get here astounds me.

  78. RMB says:

    Tomorrow the fed announces interest rates.. Can we get back on Real Estate?

  79. skep-tic says:

    Re: NY vs. Boston

    Boston is filled with financial services jobs too. so the high income people there are doing well just as they are here

  80. InfoDiva says:

    And by the way, the InfoDiva handle comes from my work in IT, where I was one of very few women in the field when I started.

    Sorry if that offends you, too.

  81. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    U.S. mortgage creation to slide through 2007 – MBA

    The production of U.S. home loans will slide 19 percent this year to $2.46 trillion, the fifth-highest year on record, and then drop another 14 percent in 2007 before stabilizing the next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Tuesday.

    Mortgage creation should drop to $2.12 trillion in 2007 and hold at that level in 2008, with rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans rising “modestly” in that time to 6.8 percent from just below 6.4 percent now, the trade group said.

    “Economic growth will continue to slow through the rest of 2006 but should return to near normal growth during 2007 and 2008,” the MBA said in statement.

  82. James Bednar says:

    Can we try to keep the off-topic arguments to a minimum?

    I don’t want to have to start moderating comments.

    jb

  83. RMB says:

    “the fifth-highest year on record”

  84. Al says:

    skep-tic Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 3:43 pm
    Re: NY vs. Boston

    Boston is filled with financial services jobs too. so the high income people there are doing well just as they are here

    In NY better apartments/homes will always be unreasonable.
    But in it’s mass they will crush down more that in other parts of the country due to the fact that they have run up that high.
    As far AS Boston dropping faster – whats population of Boston Compare to NY (the bigger they are the slower they are to move I guess), and also nowhere is the world there are so many bankers as In NY. You can;t possibly compare NY to Boston – It is Different here, it will be a lot worse it just will take longer:)

  85. UnRealtor says:

    Apologies if already posted:

    10 mistakes that made flipping a flop

    If there’s a poster child for everything that went wrong in the real estate boom, it just might be Casey Serin.

    In one year, the 24-year-old website-designer-turned-real estate-flipper bought eight homes in four states — and in every case but one, he put no money down. At his peak, in April, Serin had $93,000 he’d taken out of the homes as he bought them. By July, he was broke, desperate for one last deal.

    Now? Serin has $140,000 in credit card and credit-line debt and five houses in foreclosure.

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-22-young-flipper-usat_x.htm

  86. Lindsey says:

    Unrealtor said:
    “No seller is forced to make a deal…”

    Actually, some are; now buyers are another animal entirely. Right now I think almost all discretionary sellers have left the market, but there are still discretionary buyers out there, because just about all buyers are discretionary. I can imagine some scenarios where a person simply must buy, but I can’t imagine many people in one of those scenarios.

    That’s one of the things that has surprised me about the housing mess we’re in. Nobody had to buy, but so many did anyway, and more stunning, some still do. I’m sure there are still places in the country where housing costs are reasonable, but none of them are in NJ in or above Ocean County.

    For the life of me I can’t figure out why anybody is buying right now.

  87. Richard says:

    >>The sheer vehemence of the attacks I get here astounds me.

    passions sometimes turns into stupidity.

  88. Grim Lies says:

    My rental incomes cover all of my mortgage/tax/insurance/repair costs. and leave some extra at the end of the month do live very comfortably.

    No need to cry over it, you will just have to face it that some people are meant to own homes and some are meant to rent forever.

  89. v says:

    #90
    Well we will just have to wait for your ARM to reset.

  90. NJGal says:

    Sorry infodiva, but when you make a comment that implies it is impossible to have happy childhood memories when one is not a member of a family who owns their home, I see it as just that. In fact, it’s that mentality that I see as a core problem of US society – too much of a focus on materialism and consumerism for my taste, and your comment speaks to that. It was definitely judgmental in nature, and had an undercurrent of “I’m better than you” nastiness – believe me, I grew up in a town of that (and coming clean, my parents owned our home, although I don’t believe that affected my childhood one bit) – let’s say that instead of “gaydar” I good “snob-dar.”

  91. AHS says:

    Washington Times Article
    “housing slump takes hine off star studded properties”

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061024-121456-3758r_page2.htm

  92. Lindsey says:

    I would love to see the MBA’s breakdown of how that 30 percent decline in mortgage lending occurs.

    How much is price declines? How much is volume declines?

    How does it affect new construction? What role do new lending standards play? How does the spending/borrowing break down regionally?

    Why will economic growth return to “normal?”

    What were the “ceteris parabus” assumptions and why?

    At this point it is clear that affordability is the No. 1 driver of the downward trend, but external factors loom large.

    The housing story is far from over, but I think the trillion dollar question for 07 is what will happen to the US dollar and how will whatever happens effect the overall economy?

    The dollar bubble started before the housing bubble, but it hasn’t really popped yet. Housing’s pop is going to be very ugly; the dollar’s pop is going to be hideous.

  93. Grim Lies says:

    I never get an arm always a 30 or 15 year fixed rate. Sorry to burst your BUBBLE.

    All of my homes are rented. And yes, I do have to maintain the homes, but it takes about 20 hours a month and I dont do all the repairs/updates myself.

    20 hours compared to you 160+ hours a month nJoy the ride to work each day.

  94. v says:

    #95

    What about the last few you bought? It’s OK admit it nobody will know. You can always post again using a different name.

  95. Grim Lies says:

    Last 2 were 30 year fixed, I would never get an ARM, for my needs, fixed is better I know what it will cost me each month.

    I have been doing this for a long time, I am not a person that got on the real estate wagon a few years ago.

  96. Pat says:

    I’m not sorry about my childhood, but I hated most of the homeowning part. Back then, people did their own maintenance, mostly. We owned a home – a home many people would drool over today. Beautiful pocket doors, marble fireplace, original shiny chestut molding, two staircases, stained glass, attic with maids quarters, secret passageways (well, they seemed secret to a little 7 year-old).

    And you know what? We had to clean it all. And maintain it all. All those hardwood floors. Every week. At least 40 windows, h e a v y windows.

    Between the ages of 7 and 18 I did all the maintenance I ever want to do for a lifetime. You can keep it. All of it. I just want to hold my daughter and play with her at the park. If she never has to scrub a floor on her hands and knees, I’ll have done my job.

  97. Spelunker says:

    Grim lies is right guys. Lets pack it up. I’m buying tomorrow first thing.

  98. Grim Lies says:

    lol another renter, kinda easy to spot the renters on here

  99. Spelunker says:

    growing up when my parents finally got a home i was about 11. I remember everybody seemed happier before the house. The problem became money and making the monthly nut.

  100. Spelunker says:

    growing up when my parents finally got a home i was about 11. I remember everybody seemed happier before the house. The problem became money and making the monthly nut. Living in an apartment in washington heights was lots of fun from what i remember. renting in WNY NJ also had fond memories.

  101. v says:

    #97
    Let me try to understand –
    If what you stated so far is really true –

    1] you should be encouraging us to rent. Why the he** would you want us to buy? If we buy your ‘positive’ cash flow will stop. correct? Could you please care to explain? Unless you are a flipper who bought last year on an 1 year ARM.

    2] On the other hand, i see that you are against ARM loans. I’m against ARM loans too. The only way i can buy right now is by taking out an ARM which i don’t want to. I’m just following your foot steps. You and me are almost friends now.

    Don’t get too excited.. i said almost. We can never be you liar.

  102. UnRealtor says:

    “I have been doing this for a long time, I am not a person that got on the real estate wagon a few years ago.”

    So you bought low, when the numbers made sense, yet expect others to buy high, when they don’t?

    Thanks for the tip…

  103. Pat says:

    Spelunker, I suppose the rent versus own argument gets stale for a lot of people. Everyone has their own reasons why they rent a home or why they buy a home. For me, it’s really never been about the money. We have plenty. It’s the experiences I had while owning.

    Grim Lies: It should be easy to spot the renters on here, that’s for darn tootin.

    What I don’t get is why would a happy homeowner/ leisurely landlord be on this site? I don’t get it. I can’t understand what you would get out of reading this blog if you’re content in your situation. There must be some imbalance, or you never would have searched for whatever search term got you here.

  104. Spelunker says:

    …telling this guys is spot on…

  105. Grim Lies says:

    #103 If you can buy and plan to live in the home for 7-10 years, you would do better off buying.

    Some people will be renters their whole life, but some rent, but dont want to, so I think they should buy at the right price, I never buy at the prices they ask, I only buy at a price, I can afford to buy at where I can make $$$ on the rentals.

    Arms are good, if you plan on staying in the home for a short period of time, and even them it might be better to rent.

    Just dont buy at the wrong price.

  106. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Anyone see an Open house on Monday before?

    Do not recall ever seeing before and this includes last bubble early 1990’s.

    Saw it for the first time this past monday.

    desperate times call for desperate actions.

    All the greedy grubbers has to do is lower their ripoff dream prices and it will sell…but it sits..HAHAHHAHA…and sits….

    BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  107. Pat says:

    Bob, you’re like 2 months late. Where’ve you been. We had a Tuesday lunch open house on my block in August with Rita’s water ices, dude.

  108. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    Grim Lies Says:
    October 24th, 2006 at 5:06 pm
    #103 If you can buy and plan to live in the home for 7-10 years, you would do better off buying.

    You are friggen liar!!!

    I can’t stand slimeballs like you. i own a house(s) but would not tell anyone to just buy one now.
    Do NOT listen to this self-serving spinmeister.

    Bleed”em Dry.

    Bob

  109. Spelunker says:

    I started seeing them in my area for the past few months. I have even seen champagne midnight open house on Thursday’s in downtown JC. Oh yes, with cheese.

  110. Blow Blow blow your house down says:

    “Some people will be renters their whole life, but some rent, but dont want to, so I think they should buy at the right price, I never buy at the prices they ask, I only buy at a price, I can afford to buy at where I can make $$$ on the rentals.”

    Look jerk buying anywhere near these prices you ain’t going to be cashflow neutral.

    Take your BS propaganda and shove it.

    BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  111. James Bednar says:

    This thread is now locked.

Comments are closed.