The “experts” knew

From the Delaware State News:

Area housing market slows
By Jenny Maher

If you look in the real estate section these days, you’ll probably notice two words rarely seen in the past few years – “price reduced.”

It’s something homebuyers have been longing to see – a sign that the pendulum has swung in their direction.

With so much demand, area homeowners had little difficulty selling their property quickly, and for lofty asking prices.

But experts knew it was only a matter of time before the real estate bubble would burst.

“It was an anomaly and it couldn’t be sustained,” Ms. Briggs-King said. “It would’ve priced too many people out of the market.”

As expected, the housing market cooled this year.

And with the housing market slumping in other areas, Mr. Martin said there aren’t as many out-of-state buyers coming to Delaware, because they are having a hard time selling their homes.

“The New Jersey and Pennsylvania markets are not as healthy, and they do have an impact on our market,” he said.

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27 Responses to The “experts” knew

  1. Metroplexual says:

    “Ruth Briggs-King, executive vice president of the Sussex County Association of Realtors, described the housing market from 2002 through 2005 as atypical, driven by a good economy and increased housing demand.”

    What good economy? This economy was fueled by HELOCS and cashout Refis. MEW was the injection to the consumer led economy. Yes, housing demand went up but that was because the speculator in the stockmarket shifted to RE.

    Ms. Briggs-King is just a shill. BUt who are thes so-called experts referenced in the article?

  2. Spelunker says:

    Who were the experts that knew it would only last so long? What are their forecasts now?

  3. Pat says:

    Makes me wonder, also. I remember reading a year or two ago in the local paper, the list of a hundred or so housing markets, with price increases out of line with past history, and the PA/NJ region wasn’t really on the list of those areas with risk of correction.

    I think they had Phila at a +7..nothing major.

    So the experts before had a rating system, published over and over, that showed few at-risk areas in this area. Now, the experts knew.

  4. Spelunker says: put something out today proclaiming that new jersey still has hot spots in the cities. If you read the article it makes you believe that there is absolutely nothing going down in NJ. Suburbs are fine, cities are fine. Housing market is still climbing.

    “The median sale price for a home or condominium in urban communities rose 18 percent in the first six months of 2006, compared with a relatively modest 8 percent jump in the suburbs, according to a Star-Ledger analysis of home sales.”

    What about months after the first 6? What happened after June? I think every other state paper has said that prices are dropping. Star-Ledger, who’s pocket are you in?

  5. RentininNJ says:

    The median sale price for a home or condominium in urban communities rose 18 percent in the first six months of 2006

    I have heard of this happening in other places as well. One explanation I’ve heard was that low-end apartment conversions to condos aren’t happening with the same intensity as last year. With rents starting to climb and condo prices falling, it is no longer attractive for a building owner to convert to condo. As a result, you no longer have large amounts of lower-priced condo conversions weighing down statistics.

  6. Lindsey says:

    The makeup of the housing stock sold is always the unknown player in the monthly “median number,” though it’s usually not something that can move things more than a couple of percent.

    I think there also was probably some unreported discounting, such as closing costs being paid, or other incentives.

    Don’t rule out a jump in out and out fraud as well. Desperate sellers have less trouble looking the other way when they’re going to get out from under.

    Finally, there are always quotes available to support the “the experts knew” theory. Hell, you could parse some of Lereah’s comments as negative if you’re willing to get into slicing and dicing.

    All of his bullish calls always included something like, “as long as the economy remains strong…”

    You know, it wasn’t that he was doing his job as a salesman, the economy just turned on him…
    what a crock.

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