3rd Quarter Otteau Report

Posted on November 15, 2006 by grim

The Q3 Otteau Report is now available at the Otteau Appraisal Group website. For your convenience, here are the shortcuts:

Atlantic County

Bergen County

Burlington County

Camden County

Cape May County

Cumberland County

Essex County

Gloucester County

Hudson County

Hunterdon County

Mercer County

Middlesex County

Monmouth County

Morris County

Ocean County

Salem County

Somerset County

Sussex County

Union County

Warren County

This entry was posted in New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

115 Responses to 3rd Quarter Otteau Report

SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:02 pm

wow,

this is grea data.

How much trust can we put into such data?

SAS
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:26 pm

Morris County is Missing towns what give that cheap Otteua he can’t be trusted.
Richie says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:28 pm

Yea, my town is missing from Morris.

Maybe my town seceded and I dont know about it..
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:45 pm

Check the Q2 reports to even see if they were reported in the past.

jb
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:48 pm

I do think its funny though that realtors take this guys word like he is the all knowing..
I mean wow he can run reports he must be some sort of magically being from the planet Gorkgon.
I mean this data seems so bland nothing much to these reports. I am very unimpressed(yes I have not looked at these things before) But the way realtors reffered to “The Otteua” report I thought it was going to be a magically experince like going to disney land. I can get much more usefull info from CNN.com, NJ.com and my own market ananlsys, and of course this site provides all kinds of good info.
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:51 pm

Check the Q2 reports to even see if they were reported in the past

I did Grim and Nada on the towns I want info on…ehh well wouldnt believe this Otteua character if he was the last appraiser on earth, or the planet Gorkon
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:51 pm

I thought the Otteau Report was telling…

although, I wonder just how much the data was tweaked.

Would love to see the raw data.

SAS
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:54 pm

I’m not sure how you can spin any of this report positive.

Also, when looking at these numbers, keep in mind Otteau reports contract sales, not closed sales. So this data is a bit more forward looking than the data I normally provide (closed sales).

I particularly enjoyed the infinity symbol he uses to represent projected absorption in some areas/price ranges.

jb
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 12:58 pm

I’ve met Jeff Otteau in person and have spoken with him.

While we don’t share the same economic and RE market outlook his viewpoint and data should not be ignored or discredited.

It is simply another data element that should be factored into your analysis.

I do, however, agree that many agents simply parrot what Jeff says without any real understanding of what it means.

jb
SV says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:05 pm

Highlands has so many homes on the market no wonder the council agreed to relocate section 8 from other towns.

Thanks for the link!
BC Bob says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:05 pm

Wow!! Great Stuff!!

Look at these monthly absorption rates in BC;

Closter- 12
Alpine-15
Saddle River-15
Demarest-18
Haworth-22
Eng.Cliffs-27

Realtors have stated that the business becomes fractured when these rates exceeds 6-8 mos.!! I guess we can call this a major break.

Has there been some geological shift away from NY??? Are these not Wall Street towns???
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:10 pm

yup Bob,

I too was surprized about the town of Alpine.

SAS
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:12 pm

What about Hudson County?

Absorption of 12 months overall, 20 months from 600k-1m.

JC Composite at 14 months, Hoboken at 8 months.

Has the Gold Coast lost it’s glitter?
BC Bob says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:15 pm

JB,

Didn’t even have a chance to look at HC. I’m buried under all the inventory in BC.
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:15 pm

Rumson at 18 months, Red Bank at 11, Monmouth composite at 11 months.

And I thought I was grim on the state of the market, these numbers are a shocker.

jb
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:17 pm

“Has the Gold Coast lost it’s glitter?”

lol, if you ask a RE agent they will blow so much smoke up your skirt you would think that gold just keeps on shining.

SAS
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:19 pm

What makes this site appealing to so many people is an unbiased view of the market. I can come here get all kinds of good data and make a fairly good ananlsys of my outlook on the market. Plus there are people who express views on why the believe the outcome will be the way they think. To me this site is 1000 times better than 1 report. I mean there is no in depth analsys like you provide, numbers, figures new stories, in my opinion thats what makes you one of the best Econimists around, even though I know you are not one by profession. Plus the fact the this website is a forum we get to hear the voice of the people..Even Bob. And to me realtors should be crawling all over this site to see why people are not buying instead of trying to look into there crystal ball and make up some stupid scam to help sell homes. I know people want to get the most money for there homes and agents want the most commision they can get, but no matter how many things you flash infront of us all we want is prices to come down. Until that is realized across the board and put into practice than peoples houses will sit on the market and continue to collect dust. I mean honesly anyone who is saying the market will recoup and start being better in spring 07. I have heard people spouting that off left and right, but why will the market come back in spring 07? Wheres your data, where is your logic that the market will recover? Anyone who says the market will come back please inform everyone how you came up with that forcast? Other than parroting Otteua, or talking about past market trends, becuase honestly there has not been a market like this ever. But I guess it will just becuase you say it will…Thats right we all got tired of a buying frenzy so we all just decided to take 2006 off it shall be known as the year of rest from Homebuying. And thus far all the economist and realtors have been right on the money, saying the housing market never declines, and that prices will go up, and my favorite line from a realtor when I tell tehm I cannot afford that 400k house, ohh we have hundreds of loan programs we can get you in here. If I say I cannot afford it do not assume I can when I clearly tell you I have a mortage and the people are smoking something funny if they think there gonna get 400k for there tiney little shack of a house. Quote the Otteua report Never More
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:22 pm

I must admit, I borrowed that gem from a NY Times piece published in 1991.

Jersey’s ‘Gold Coast’ Losing Its Glitter
By THOMAS J. LUECK
Published: March 24, 1991
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE3D61438F937A15750C0A967958260

THE New Jersey shore of the Hudson River, which emerged in the mid-80’s as a powerful new magnet for high-rise office development, is struggling with high vacancy rates, canceled projects and nagging doubts about the capacity of its roads, parking and public transportation.

No area better symbolized the 80’s real estate boom in the New York region. An 18-mile corridor of gritty piers, derelict warehouses and abandoned railroad yards, the New Jersey riverfront became a patchwork of huge development sites.

It also became the focus of a feisty battle for New York City tenants and the centerpiece of an urban renaissance so sweeping that some began calling the area the “Gold Coast” of New Jersey.

You know what they say about remembering the past..
new njrereport reader says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:22 pm

Check this out. Found it on otteau.com (I’ve saved the PDF in case it gets pulled). It’s a presentation from Spring 2006.

http://www.otteau.com/The_Otteau_Report/2006.SpringWorkshop.pdf

Check out slide # 11 .. “Why home prices will not collapse”.
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:26 pm

“slide #11”

are not all 3 happening now?

Looks like we have the perfect storm brewing.

SAS
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:28 pm

This one is also a favorite, another gem that appeared in print four years later..

New York Housing: Sellers Finally Sell
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE6DC153BF935A15751C0A963958260

OWNERS of residential real estate in New York City, particularly those with co-ops, may look back on 1994 as the year when it once again became possible to sell their homes — even studios and one-bedroom apartments. It still wasn’t easy, and the big profits of the 1980’s remained only a memory, but the increased demand and stable prices were a substantial improvement over the early 1990’s, when market activity slowed drastically and prices fell.

The outlook for this year, however, is clouded by the specter of rising interest rates and fears that the region’s economic recovery may be ending. Indeed, sales volume and prices for co-ops in Manhattan in 1994 — though generally higher than in 1993 — peaked last summer, according to the Real Estate Board of New York, and have been drifting downward for six months.
BC Bob says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:32 pm

“Rumson at 18 months, Red Bank at 11, Monmouth composite at 11 months.”

What about the BRAC at Fort Monmouth looming???
5,000 civilian and 500 military personnel. Not to mention the local businesses that are affiliated.
new njrereport reader says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:36 pm

We’re not in a recession yet. It may come though, and when it does…
SG says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:52 pm

http://www.c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061115/NEWS/611150303

Hillsboro land sale
Preview two tracts of preserved land up for auction

No builders allowed. I am for preservation but I don’t see reason of not allowing any SFH development.
FirstTimeBuyer says:

November 15, 2006 at 1:56 pm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15718835/site/newsweek/

Hot or Not?
Thousands of brokers gather in New Orleans to assess the cooling real estate market, make some cautious price predictions—and commiserate.

“That uncertainty stems from the fact that the current housing slowdown isn’t like the more typical real estate busts of the early 1980s or early 1990s. “
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:00 pm

No builders allowed. I am for preservation but I don’t see reason of not allowing any SFH development
Have you seen Hillsborough? It already has 8 gillion condos, townhomes, SFH they dont need anymore. Good I am glad the builders cant buy the land HAHAHAHA
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:00 pm

Came across this report out of Korea.. Frankly, I’m speechless.

Seoul strives to cool real estate market

South Korea’s finance minister apologized Wednesday for the failure of the government’s real estate policy.

In a press conference, Minister of Finance and Economy Kwon O-kyu unveiled another set of measures to cool down the real estate market.

“I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to the public and the people who do not own houses for the recent surge in housing prices,” Kwon told the nationally televised news conference also joined by economy-related ministers. Kwon is in charge of the country’s economic policy as deputy prime minister.

Under the new package, the government would toughen rules on home-backed lending and build more homes. “The government will focus policy capabilities on supplying quality homes at cheap prices, in large quantity and at a speedy pace,” Kwon said.

He expressed confidence the new measures would cool down the hot real estate market, saying: “It is highly risky to buy a new home at present using borrowed money.”

The government has been under fire for the failure of curbing skyrocketing house prices, which caused concerns about the possible bursting of a real estate bubble. On Tuesday, Construction Minister Chu Byung-jik and two presidential officials in charge offered to resign.
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:03 pm

Can you imagine?

A country that views rising house prices as a problem that needs to be remedied.

A finance minister that apologies to the public because of rising house prices?

Incredible…

jb
clayton says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:03 pm

RE: Spring Otteau report. Actually some good information in the PPT. I love how he claims that interest only mortgages are “Bridging the Gap” on slide 25. 20% of NJ mortgages in 2004 were interest only – that is scary.

Adjustment guide on slide 54 also very interesting.
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:04 pm

Politicians offering resignations! It’s simply unfathomable!

jb
kc2nj says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:13 pm

>> Politicians offering resignations! It’s simply unfathomable!

If we wanted the same here – ie., resignations for the housing bubble – who would we take on? .. hypothetically?
BC Bob says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:14 pm

A little off topic;

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Federal Reserve officials remained concerned about the outlook for inflation, minutes of their meeting last month show. Although there was some slight improvement in core consumer inflation since the last meeting in September, “nearly all FOMC members viewed the current rates of core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation,” the minutes said. At the same time, Fed officials appeared slightly less worried that the slowing housing market would lead the economy into a recession. Most FOMC members “judged that the downside risks to economic activity had diminished a little,” the minutes said.
new njrereport reader says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:15 pm

Re the Spring Otteau report – slide # 56 titled “Market Forecast” predicts the NJ real estate market is “transitioning to a European market model”.

What does that mean?
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:21 pm

It means people would be purchasing homes later in life, might live at home (w/ parents) slightly longer, homes chosen might be smaller and more economical.

jb
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:22 pm

FOMC Minutes are *always* on-topic.

jb
SG says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:27 pm

If we wanted the same here – ie., resignations for the housing bubble – who would we take on? .. hypothetically?

Greenspan already left !!! He knew the jig was up.
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:28 pm

anyone have the skinny on this house…
last sold, at for what price etc…etc…
thanks in advance research purposes only, I am not interested to buy… unless its like $20 dollars he he….

SAS

367 MAIN ST, RIDGEFIELD PARK
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/234971157.html
Jay says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:29 pm

“20% of NJ mortgages in 2004 were interest only – that is scary”

Not as scary as 2005 — 40% of NJ mortgages were interest only.
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:33 pm

this is to add to my post#37
http://www.friedbergproperties.com/home.html
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:35 pm

That report was from early spring.. It’s old news.

jb
njresident286 says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:37 pm

according to my cousin who is a mortgage broker, most of the 40% of the people who got those IO mortgages are now upside down, or at least even in terms of appreciation from when they bought the house. So with their loan being IO, they are way into the red. The problem will come up when the loan resets and then they try to refianance, they will not be able to and will then have to go to forclosure.
RMB says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:41 pm

The last sold date was 1991 .. these is no record of the purchase price.

367 main in Ridgefield Park
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:43 pm

thanks RMB..

you have the skinny on this one as well:

52 Chestnut Street at Wyoming
In Millburn.

Trying to get the MLS now.

SAS
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:47 pm

Chestnut – $225,000 @ 10/12/1994
Housingbear says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:51 pm

I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to the public and the people who do not own houses for the recent surge in housing prices

That really is amazing. In this country, politicians have fallen over themselves to claim responsibility for rising housing prices in a positive way. They often use it to claim that Americans are wealthier today than a few years ago. The affordability issue is often glossed over or falling interest rates and creative financing are credited “for brining the American dream to more families than ever before in history”. I guess since most voters own, it wouldn’t be politically expedient to focus much on why prices are too high.
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:57 pm

Hey I have a question. lets say Foreclosures continue to rise. And lets say the bank take them back at auction.
So lets say for the heck of it they have houses the got a forclousre ranging in prices from 400-800k.
Lets say in the areas similar type properties go for 200-400k. So this being market drops 50%. My question is will the banks have to take a loss on these homes, I figure they will have to take a loss but I am curious how flexable a price a bank owned property will be if no one wants to buy it?
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 2:58 pm

sorry about that link above, didn’t know it would take you to the home page…

Listing Number: 2638056
Town: RIDGEFIELD PARK
Price: $495,000

skinny?

SAS
SG says:

November 15, 2006 at 3:01 pm

Homer: Have you seen Hillsborough? It already has 8 gillion condos, townhomes, SFH they dont need anymore.

I beg to differ. The supply needs to catch up with population growth. At current rate supply will not. Granted the prices will come down, but with no supply, they won’t come down significantly. It seems you like less supply.
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 3:41 pm

I beg to differ. The supply needs to catch up with population growth.

Ok A: there is no growth in Hillsborough as of this moment there are 248 properties currently for sale in Hillsborough NJ and most have been sitting collecting dust on the market. They already are building SFH in Hillsborough, they also just built the assisted living place there and they are building 55+ community in Hillsborough. So please enlightend me where you are getting your information from. I got mine from:
A: The GSMLS
B: Actually driving through Hillsborough and seeing whats going on.
So get all your fact together and prove me wrong.
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 3:43 pm

Oh and one thing in Hillsborough is there are always places available for sale. I have watched Hillsborough for over 2 years and theres never been nothing available.
So lets see why you believe that there need to be SFH in Hillsborough
RentinginNJ says:

November 15, 2006 at 3:45 pm

My question is will the banks have to take a loss on these homes

Yes. They will sell the home for what the market will bear and write off the loss. They don’t have much of a choice unless they want to get into the landlord business. Banks don’t want to be in the business of holding properties waiting for the market to bounce back.

Here is the real kicker. Any loss the bank takes is considered a “gift” (cancellation of debt) to the borrower and the loss amount may be subject to income tax.
Al says:

November 15, 2006 at 3:58 pm

Here is the real kicker. Any loss the bank takes is considered a “gift” (cancellation of debt) to the borrower and the loss amount may be subject to income tax.
If homeoenwer declared BK he does not get stuck with “Gift”.
I am not sure about FK – my understanding was that it is considered Gift only if it is “Short Sale”
njresident286 says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:14 pm

Do banks have to auction the houses, or can they put them up for regular sale? If you think about it, they have usually made so much in interest in the first few years, I am sure they can afford to “break even” on the price and still come out ahead
Al says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:18 pm

Do banks have to auction the houses, or can they put them up for regular sale? If you think about it, they have usually made so much in interest in the first few years, I am sure they can afford to “break even” on the price and still come out ahead

Banks usually do not carry costs for 6 month (lets say 5% interest on 200K house, + 3K intaxes – thats 10K loss right there) – while wating for sale – hence the auctions. ASs far as Making money in interest – once year passes that interest reported as profit and it is gone.

Banks can substruct the difference between mortage balance and money they got for the house from their profits – thus lowering taxes…
RentinginNJ says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:22 pm

If homeoenwer declared BK he does not get stuck with “Gift”.
True

I am not sure about FK – my understanding was that it is considered Gift only if it is “Short Sale”

The tax provision extends beyond just short sales (where the owners sell and pays back the bank less than the full loan amount). However, there are other exceptions to the tax rule. For example, I don’t think you get hit with income tax on a non-recourse loan.
ricky_nu says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:26 pm

looking at the months inventory for Bergen County, I can tell you from experience that:

#1 – Yes there are more houses for sale than I can ever remember

#2 – 30-40% currently for sale in my town (Upper Saddle River) are spec builts and are priced $2.5m+. These houses were $1.5m a few years ago. There are 35 (of 105) houses priced over $2m for sale right now. That is 2 years worth of sales (vs history).
Kim says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:41 pm

I’m surprised no one posted this article from today’s Daily Record (unless I missed it)

Whitney might lose her Mendham home!

http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061115/COMMUNITIES28/611150340

“According to the deed for the Cross Way property dated July 29, 1993, Houston purchased the property for $573,477 from previous owners, George and Shirley Sawyer.”

“According to a copy of the mortgage on file with the county, Houston borrowed $975,000 from Chevy Chase Bank. Including interest, Houston was supposed to pay $4,711.18 per month from June 2004 until May 2034, for an amount totaling about $1.7 million”
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:45 pm

The tax provision extends beyond just short sales (where the owners sell and pays back the bank less than the full loan amount).

Ok well than lets say a house is going to be foreclosed on and I opt to buy the house. Lets say 150K is owed on the house and there is a 100k lean. So they owe 250k. So if I offer them say 130k the bank loses out on that extra 20g plus I would still be responsible for that 100k lean. And even if theres no lean I dont think the bank would agree to let them accept 20g less when there is a possibility that they will make back the money at auction. Am I missing something?
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:47 pm

I missed that, thanks Kim!

jb
Hard Place says:

November 15, 2006 at 4:53 pm

Holy Crow! Did you see some of the absorption numbers in Morris County?

Chester Borough – 51 months!
Chester Township – 15 months
Harding Township – 19 months
Kinnelon Borough – 11 months
Long Hill Township – 12 months
Mendham – 14 months
Montville Township – 11 months
Mountain Lakes – 12 months
Washington Township – 14 months

I’m sure these towns will show some serious drops over the next year. Than it should spread virally to surrounding areas, as buyers see selective bargains in these towns. Seeing the dramatic increase in absorption numbers strengthens my belief that things are coming down and hard.
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 5:33 pm

“Chester Borough – 51 months!”

wow, I overlooked that one. You are right on Hard Place… I agree with you.

Great minds think alike too.

;)
SAS
profuscious says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:05 pm

thanks for these stats. If you are an economist looking at the supply and demand ratio, wouldn’t you be able to determine the bottom of the market once this number goes back on the rise? Wonder what it will look like this time next year?
007 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:07 pm

Grim,
Another set of data that we can look into. Thanks,
007
Lindsey says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:08 pm

The pattern out of the Monmouth County numbers showed the most expensive communities taking the biggest beatings (primarily). Unsold Inventory of $1M-$2.5M homes is at 16 months and +$2.5M unsold inventory is at 30 months.

Think Spring Lake, Colts Neck, Monmouth Beach and Rumson as well as the unreported towns of Deal, Allenhurst and Loch Arbour as primaries for those homes, but there are plenty of towns that have some, including Middletown, Holmdel, Ocean, and Millstone that have enough to be worth counting. Millstone might actually belong in the first group.

One town that is mixed that stands out is Ocean. Projected absorption went from 4 to 14 months and inventory doubled (the only town in the county to do so). Some of that is related to the Dwek mess, it’s his base and he “owns” a lot of properties there, but that doesn’t cover everything.

As with other counties, some small municipalities, Allenhurst, Loch Arbour, Deal, Farmingdale, Roosevelt, and Englishtown have been left out. It’s possible that at least some of those towns sales/inventory have been counted in other communities as they are “holes in the donut” towns.
chicagofinance says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:16 pm

SAS Says:
November 15th, 2006 at 1:17 pm
“Has the Gold Coast lost it’s glitter?”
lol, if you ask a RE agent they will blow so much smoke up your skirt you would think that gold just keeps on shining.
SAS

grim – posted this stiff on kannekt.com [i.e. Hudson County gossip site with a lot of RE content]. Needless to say, he got the natives restless. One of them posted that he need to “find G-d” to fill the void in his life.

chicago
chicagofinance says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:16 pm

stiff – typo – stuff
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:20 pm

I’m surprised it hasn’t been deleted yet. Most things I post there are deleted within a few minutes.

jb
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:27 pm

IT IS GOING TO BE A MASSACRE IN A FEW MONTHS.

THE GREEDY GRUBBING STUBBORN SELLERS WILL REALIZE THEIR IS NO MOR EHOPE FOR A REBOUND.

THEN THE PANIC.

MAKE’EM PAY…BLEED’EM DRY..

Bob’s been around these type of situations before.

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA

Bob
Lindsey says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:29 pm

More on Monmouth.

Correction: Sea Girt unsold inventory also doubled from Q3 05 to Q3 06.

Almost every town was in the ballpark of double (10% either way) of unsold inventory compared to 04.

For most towns September showed both contracts and new listings dropping, but a handful, including Colts Neck, Freehold Township, Manasquan, Long Branch and Marlboro, showed listings up and contracts down. That is a very bad sign for those towns.

Keep in mind that breaking this data down to towns in some cases makes the sample size so small that the trend shown lacks meaning.

I just noticed that Keyport and Keansburg are also among the missing. And Spring Lake is in the report twice, but Spring Lake Heights is among the missing.
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:29 pm

NO HOPE grubbers

the exit door is shutting better move very very fast.

It’s Payback time BABY!

BLEED”EM DRY!

Bob
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:32 pm

“IT IS GOING TO BE A MASSACRE IN A FEW MONTHS”

lol

I have been waiting all day for a post from Bob.

;)
SAS
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:32 pm

The Exit Door is already shut if you keep up with the greedy grubbing entitlement attitude.

Give’em Hell!

Squeeze every last concession you can.

It’s payback time BABY!

BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

Bob
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:35 pm

Lindsey,

I must say, your posts are always very well written and elegant.

SAS
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:35 pm

HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007

NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE NO HOPE
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:37 pm

NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES
NOTHING BUT LOWER AND LOWER AND LOWER PRICES

GOOD NIGHT!
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:38 pm

I’m sure the guys over at Kannekt would enjoy your style Bob.

jb
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 6:48 pm

Grim,

I just took a journey over to the Kanmat.
Tough crowd over there.

I think I will go do what I am really good at:
stir the pot.

SAS
Hard Place says:

November 15, 2006 at 7:15 pm

SAS – In similar respects with the luxury market imploding the prices will surely drop here first and cause compression in the subsequent price points. It’s a virus that hits the top of the market and works its way down until the entire market is infected with price declines. You can see why Otteau said, according to JB, that he’s not sure if the luxury market will ever come back. Look at selected absorption numbers for the $2.5mm market in these selected counties:

Bergen – 18 months
Essex – 23 months
Hudson – 24 months
Monmouth – 30 months
Somerset – 31 months
Morris – 33 months
Union – 42 months
Middlesex – infinite i.e. “no sales”

Hard Place.
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 7:19 pm

For those who want to discuss property taxes..

http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/PropertyTaxSession/specialsessionpt_reports.asp
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:02 pm

These blocs at the Kammat are way too easy, not much of a challenge.

SAS
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:16 pm

These blocs at the Kammat are way too easy

I agree it would be like taking candy from a baby. Plus the website is just so poorly laid out I couldn’t stay on it for that long.

But hey who are we to argue with the people of
HOBOken, its is and always will be an overpriced GHETTO!! Hey next thing ya know they will be building Condo’s and Mega Manisons in Camden, they figure if they can con people into spending 1 million in Hoboken they probably can do the same thing in Camden. Camden is going to be the next Manhattan LOL
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:23 pm

MLS Number: 2299495
MLS Number: 2330830
Can someone pull addresses, time on market, how much they paid
Also if anyone can tell me what happened to 7 Alpine Court in Hillsborough I was just curious.
Thanks
BC Bob says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:31 pm

“It’s a virus that hits the top of the market and works its way down until the entire market is infected with price declines.”

Yes, this industry is one big chain reaction. In order for ABC to close XYZ is required to close first. This industry is only as strong as the weakest link. The problem is that there are too many weak links in the chain.
Homer Simpson says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:32 pm

MLS Number: 2271119 and info on this one too, its in Rockaway
pats56 says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:39 pm

Realtors- LISTEN UP! YOUR BETTER PREPARE YOUR CLIENTS FOR LOWBALL OFFERS.

Also, all real estate offices throughout Nj should STOP telling their clients prices are expected to go up spring 2007.

I think a very small percentage of people with no knowledge of the RE market will buy this BS.
RentinginNJ says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:40 pm

Homer,

The short sale has to be approved by the bank. They probably wouldn’t agree to it if they think they could do substantially better at auction.

Both parties get something out of the deal. The bank doesn’t need to worry about taking possession of your property and selling it. The seller doesn’t get a “foreclosure” on his credit report
ADA says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:48 pm

November 14,

Report: high rents, ultra-low vacancy rates in Manhattan
New numbers for October from real estate firm Citi Habitats show high residential rents and low vacancy rates across Manhattan. Borough-wide, the average apartment rented for $2,863 a month.

Soho/ TriBeCa had the highest neighborhood rents by far, with spots in those neighborhoods renting for an average of $4,316 a month, making them far more expensive than even Chelsea and the West Village, where rents averaged just over $3,200 per month. Bargain hunters should head north— way north– to Harlem, where the average apartment rents for just $1,754 a month.

That said, good luck trying to move anywhere at all. Vacancy rates are incredibly low in Manhattan at just 0.80 percent. Finding one of those pricey apartments in SoHo/TriBeCa or the West Village, the data show, is almost mathematically impossible.

Vacancy Summary October, 2006
Vacancy
Neighborhood Rate
BPC / Financial Dist. 0.61%
Chelsea 0.66%
East Village 0.69%
Gramercy 0.56%
Mid-Town East 1.21%
Mid-Town West 0.80%
Murray Hill 1.25%
Soho/Tribeca 0.37%
Upper East Side 0.89%
Upper West Side 0.86%
West Village 0.35%
Overall Vacancy 0.80%
Hard Place says:

November 15, 2006 at 8:49 pm

I’ve just wanted to update my situation. Currently living in a rent stabilized 1BR w/ my wife and 10 month old. My wife has agreed that we can hold off until next year. This is starting from we must buy now (that was last year). I’m hoping to hold off until 2008. With dips coming in 2007, maybe that will convince her. I think she may finally be coming around. We’ll continue looking and check out some houses that look nice, but will stay away from writing a check. We’ll be staying in our current place until either we have another kid and continue renting or we get a nice lowball.

Sitting here enjoying city life w/ a glass of wine in my hand and my wife at my side as the baby sleeps.
Hard Place says:

November 15, 2006 at 9:06 pm

ADA,

I have nothing to support my assumption, but I think the low vacancy numbers are a temporary situation. We are at a point where renters can’t afford to buy so continue to rent. The speculators have bought and taken a lot of rental inventory off the market. The developers are continuing to sell into this market, however even they are not getting asking price nowadays. From local papers they do say in Manhattan, buyers are not paying asking price anymore except in exceptional cases. Once speculators realize they can’t flip properties for a profit they will try to rent or sell. Prices will start coming down. More rentals will hit the market and vacancy will increase. The sh!t will hit the fans when Wall Street starts cutting back. They are doing it selectively already, but not in mass. My dept has lopped off some headcount and are not hiring new analysts.
chicagofinance says:

November 15, 2006 at 9:29 pm

SAS:

Saw you over at kannekt. Hilarious. The place is infested with real estate agents, [former] flippers, and assorted recent buyers $hitting bricks at this point. Everyone is either (1) in a foul mood or (2) lying through their teeth.
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 9:39 pm

“Saw you over at kannekt. Hilarious. The place is infested with real estate agents, [former] flippers, and assorted recent buyers $hitting bricks at this point. Everyone is either (1) in a foul mood or (2) lying through their teeth”

Yee, that was alot of fun. Alot of Joes over there throw alot of hearsay around, they can’t really back anything up, or totally pull things out of their ass to try to form a rebuttal.

I was called alot of names over there. That seems to be the best arguement over there, just call me every name in the book.

But, will be back again someday.

They didn’t call me sas kick some ass for nothing ;)

SAS
chicagofinance says:

November 15, 2006 at 9:54 pm

You are a breath of fresh air over there. If you spend some time, I guarantee you will get a cult following. Hysterical you dealing with those chowderheads.

chicago
SAS says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:00 pm

lol…. “chowderheads”

SAS
Pat says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:14 pm

I went and peeked, too – fessing up.
Still laughing.

Are there many angry males with Paris Hilton-envy in Hoboken? It’s like the $300 jeans guy has gone to the dark side and replicated.

How does anybody wake these people up? I’m not talking about RE.
Escape from NJ says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:16 pm

SAS,

I read your posts at Kannekt. Very good. I had the joy of living in Hoebroken for 6 years. It is good to see the population remains the same. Know-it alls from Ohio who act as if they grew up in NY/NJ. If they had any real juice they would live on the Upper East or West. Hoboken is what it is, a town filled with cold calling ex-frat boys looking to score an easy buck and an easier chick, flight attendants looking for a place to crash and a broker to marry and the local B&T crowd to cheap to pay the NYC $6.00 cover charge to see the bright lights and big city on the weekend.
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:22 pm

I’ll post inventory numbers tomorrow, as well as a new edition of Price Reduced!

jb
chicagofinance says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:45 pm

Escape: While you are not entirely wrong, your view is very dated and I don’t agree with it. It is especailly not true of the northeast section of town, where there are so many baby carriages that it is mind boggling. Also to point out, while NYC is the culinary capital, my Zagat’s guide suggests that the only other NJ town with as many top restaurants is Atalntic City, and that is certainly no place to live.

chicago
James Bednar says:

November 15, 2006 at 10:52 pm

I enjoyed Hoboken the handful of days I spent in grad school at Stevens. Although, I can’t necessarily say I didn’t enjoy the other end of town during my undergrad nights either.

jb
Jaywalk says:

November 16, 2006 at 12:12 am

Highlands has so many homes on the market no wonder the council agreed to relocate section 8 from other towns.

Do you have a link to this Section 8 relocation information?

Thanks in advance!
SV says:

November 16, 2006 at 7:51 am

I don’t have a link to the deal that was made on that, but there might be something on the Asbury Park side that said “Highlands agrees”. Highlands has more “affordable housing” than anywhere else in the area and if you are lucky to wind up in the welfare apartments you can sublease it and make money! The people who live there all have brand new cars. There is such a glut of rental properties (most owned by one company) that they will take anything – recent ads in the APP actually said “Section 8 welcome”.
Jaywalk says:

November 16, 2006 at 9:50 am

SV,

Thanks, I’ll look for it.

Jaywalk
FH NJ says:

November 16, 2006 at 10:05 am

Lindsey, I too enjoy and look foward to what you have to say!
AntiTrump says:

November 16, 2006 at 1:19 pm

I think this clearly establishes that 2005 was the peak of the housing bubble. Good luck to the people who bought in 2004~2006. Enjoy ! ;-)
Pingback: Anonymous

Comments are closed.

3rd Quarter Otteau Report

115 Responses to 3rd Quarter Otteau Report

Econ / Finance

Housing Bubble

New Jersey

Real Estate

Real Estate News

Tools

Archives