Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
The first table contains Lowball sales of 20% or greater off the Original List Price.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2251431 | Vernon Twp. (2824) | $32,500 | $22,000 | $18,500 | 43.1% | $14,000 |
| 2276049 | Belleville Twp.* (1601) | $399,900 | $349,900 | $250,000 | 37.5% | $149,900 |
| 2272319 | Clinton Twp. (1906) | $399,000 | $299,900 | $260,000 | 34.8% | $139,000 |
| 2313651 | Elizabeth City* (2904) | $339,900 | $319,900 | $230,000 | 32.3% | $109,900 |
| 2303682 | Liberty Twp.* (3014) | $123,900 | $123,900 | $84,000 | 32.2% | $39,900 |
| 2257275 | Belvidere Twp. (3003) | $339,000 | $259,900 | $240,000 | 29.2% | $99,000 |
| 2302086 | Morristown Town* (2325) | $649,000 | $549,000 | $475,000 | 26.8% | $174,000 |
| 2274992 | Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp. | $419,000 | $339,000 | $307,500 | 26.6% | $111,500 |
| 2214626 | Livingston Twp. (1610) | $1,550,000 | $1,285,000 | $1,150,000 | 25.8% | $400,000 |
| 2285462 | Rockaway Twp.* (2335) | $394,900 | $349,900 | $295,000 | 25.3% | $99,900 |
| 2286799 | Rahway City* (2913) | $269,000 | $194,000 | $202,000 | 24.9% | $67,000 |
| 2287060 | Readington Twp. (1922) | $795,000 | $795,000 | $600,000 | 24.5% | $195,000 |
| 2074952 | Bernardsville Boro (2703) | $4,295,000 | $3,749,000 | $3,250,000 | 24.3% | $1,045,000 |
| 2268485 | Denville Twp. (2308) | $639,000 | $485,000 | $485,000 | 24.1% | $154,000 |
| 2271287 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $689,900 | $624,000 | $525,000 | 23.9% | $164,900 |
| 2283779 | Maplewood Twp. (1611) | $839,000 | $699,000 | $642,500 | 23.4% | $196,500 |
| 2251595 | Fairfield Twp.* (1607) | $1,499,000 | $1,239,000 | $1,150,000 | 23.3% | $349,000 |
| 2245290 | Oakland Boro (1142) | $649,900 | $499,000 | $499,000 | 23.2% | $150,900 |
| 2293648 | Wayne Twp.* (2514) | $1,550,000 | $1,450,000 | $1,200,000 | 22.6% | $350,000 |
| 2282766 | Kinnelon Boro (2315) | $489,900 | $432,000 | $382,000 | 22.0% | $107,900 |
| 2272867 | Bridgewater Twp. (2706) | $689,000 | $589,000 | $538,000 | 21.9% | $151,000 |
| 2284671 | South Amboy City (2120) | $229,000 | $179,000 | $179,000 | 21.8% | $50,000 |
| 2273975 | Randolph Twp.* (2332) | $319,500 | $269,900 | $250,000 | 21.8% | $69,500 |
| 2110931 | Vernon Twp. (2824) | $459,000 | $375,000 | $360,000 | 21.6% | $99,000 |
| 2291360 | West Milford Twp. (2515) | $210,000 | $164,900 | $165,000 | 21.4% | $45,000 |
| 2304698 | South Orange Village Twp. | $1,312,574 | $1,312,574 | $1,032,000 | 21.4% | $280,574 |
| 2288216 | Rockaway Boro* (2334) | $374,900 | $324,900 | $295,000 | 21.3% | $79,900 |
| 2259145 | Clinton Twp.* (1906) | $299,900 | $259,900 | $236,000 | 21.3% | $63,900 |
| 2297557 | Jersey City* (1806) | $256,900 | $229,900 | $203,000 | 21.0% | $53,900 |
| 2286358 | Vernon Twp. (2824) | $272,000 | $230,000 | $215,000 | 21.0% | $57,000 |
| 2269984 | Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp. | $569,000 | $499,000 | $450,000 | 20.9% | $119,000 |
| 2282130 | Summit City (2918) | $529,900 | $469,000 | $420,000 | 20.7% | $109,900 |
| 2283121 | Phillipsburg Town* (3019) | $159,900 | $128,900 | $127,200 | 20.5% | $32,700 |
| 2317904 | Clifton City* (2502) | $465,000 | $399,900 | $370,000 | 20.4% | $95,000 |
| 2281172 | Roselle Park Boro (2915) | $320,000 | $275,900 | $255,000 | 20.3% | $65,000 |
| 2290030 | Madison Boro (2318) | $2,349,000 | $1,989,000 | $1,875,000 | 20.2% | $474,000 |
| 2295993 | West Orange Twp.* (1622) | $479,000 | $399,900 | $382,500 | 20.1% | $96,500 |
| 2211051 | Roxbury Twp. (2336) | $439,900 | $390,000 | $352,000 | 20.0% | $87,900 |
The second table contains Lowball sales of greater than $150,000 off of the Original List Price.
| MLS | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2074952 | Bernardsville Boro (2703) | $4,295,000 | $3,749,000 | $3,250,000 | 24.3% | $1,045,000 |
| 2246124 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $7,400,000 | $7,400,000 | $6,375,000 | 13.9% | $1,025,000 |
| 2290030 | Madison Boro (2318) | $2,349,000 | $1,989,000 | $1,875,000 | 20.2% | $474,000 |
| 2214626 | Livingston Twp. (1610) | $1,550,000 | $1,285,000 | $1,150,000 | 25.8% | $400,000 |
| 2293648 | Wayne Twp.* (2514) | $1,550,000 | $1,450,000 | $1,200,000 | 22.6% | $350,000 |
| 2251595 | Fairfield Twp.* (1607) | $1,499,000 | $1,239,000 | $1,150,000 | 23.3% | $349,000 |
| 2303285 | Chatham Boro (2304) | $1,675,000 | $1,550,000 | $1,350,000 | 19.4% | $325,000 |
| 2296564 | Mountainside Boro (2910) | $1,700,000 | $1,500,000 | $1,400,000 | 17.6% | $300,000 |
| 2102488 | Westfield Twp. (2920) | $1,695,000 | $1,599,000 | $1,400,000 | 17.4% | $295,000 |
| 2304698 | South Orange Village Twp. | $1,312,574 | $1,312,574 | $1,032,000 | 21.4% | $280,574 |
| 2279414 | Westfield Twp. (2920) | $1,499,000 | $1,190,000 | $1,232,000 | 17.8% | $267,000 |
| 2246869 | Green Brook Twp. (2709) | $1,195,000 | $1,195,000 | $980,000 | 18.0% | $215,000 |
| 2260634 | Kinnelon Boro* (2315) | $1,150,000 | $990,000 | $945,000 | 17.8% | $205,000 |
| 2283779 | Maplewood Twp. (1611) | $839,000 | $699,000 | $642,500 | 23.4% | $196,500 |
| 2306205 | Montville Twp.* (2322) | $1,195,000 | $1,095,000 | $999,999 | 16.3% | $195,001 |
| 2287060 | Readington Twp. (1922) | $795,000 | $795,000 | $600,000 | 24.5% | $195,000 |
| 2280995 | Bridgewater Twp. (2706) | $1,075,000 | $949,000 | $899,000 | 16.4% | $176,000 |
| 2302086 | Morristown Town* (2325) | $649,000 | $549,000 | $475,000 | 26.8% | $174,000 |
| 2314647 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $1,150,000 | $999,000 | $980,000 | 14.8% | $170,000 |
| 2271287 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $689,900 | $624,000 | $525,000 | 23.9% | $164,900 |
| 2293904 | Denville Twp. (2308) | $1,095,000 | $999,900 | $931,000 | 15.0% | $164,000 |
| 2268485 | Denville Twp. (2308) | $639,000 | $485,000 | $485,000 | 24.1% | $154,000 |
| 2272867 | Bridgewater Twp. (2706) | $689,000 | $589,000 | $538,000 | 21.9% | $151,000 |
| 2245290 | Oakland Boro (1142) | $649,900 | $499,000 | $499,000 | 23.2% | $150,900 |
Additional sales data can be found here: Sales-Nov06b (XLS).
Caveat Emptor!
jb
nice work JB.
I was wondering, is it me, or is there more 20% lowballs now, as compared say 6 months ago, when they were mostly 10%.
or am I just not looking at all the data correctly?
In either case, 20% off is still way overvalued.
I wanna see at least 40% off 05 tops.
(thats the only way I will make money)
;)
SAS
off topic…
That too bad about Rutgers. I was really rooting for them. oh well.
And Farve, as much as I like him, he needs to hang it up.
ok, back to RE.
SAS
i almost ate there last week :)
SAS,
Hell of a show by RU. Too bad Trenton didn’t have the passion of that team!!!
If someone could help me out. I looked at this property in Jackson NJ. The MLS 4875252. I looked up the tax records so I know the original sale price. I just need to know how many days on the market so far. At the open house the realtor stated it was just listed. I call BS. I could swear I had seen the prop before. By the way I was at the open house at 3:30 and I was number 4 for the day. Thanks.
Grim
Looks like you are snubbing Bergen County. I was following couple of peoperties in Bergen , these are the ones I am aware of. Even after the big price cut they are still overpriced by at least 10%. I have seen all of them
2617881 Oradlell
OLP $609,000
LP $575,000
SP $545,000
SD 11/17/2006
DOM 151
Off OLP 10.5%
Off OLP $64,000
MLS 2611358 Cresskill
OPL $688,000
LP $575,000
SP $545,000
DS 11/27/2006
DOM 214
Off LP 20.8%
Off LP $143,000
2619302 Oradell
OLP $659,000
LP $569,000
SP $540,000
SD 11/29/2006
DOM 137
Off LP 18.1%
Off LP $119,000
2538596 Teanfly
OLP $649,000
LP $609,000
SP $498,000
DS 11/20/2006
DOM 314
Off LP 23.3%
Off LP $151,000
Here’s another lowball, just closed last week:
270 White Oak Ridge Rd
Short Hills, NJ
Feb 15, 2006 – $899,000 (MLS 2246790)
Mar ??, 2006 – $889,000
Apr 27, 2006 – $845,000
Jun 27, 2006 – $825,000
Aug 15, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Aug 29, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2314033)
Oct 20, 2006 – $750,000
Nov 05, 2006 – Attorney Review
Nov 08, 2006 – Under Contract
Nov 30, 2006 – Closed @ $680,000
Nice house on 0.6 acres:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2314033&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=10
More pain coming Greedy Grubbers, this only is year 1 of 5 into the decline:
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
By the way, the spreadsheets are great, please keep them coming!
On the spreadsheets, any chance of including the address in future versions?
All the info is public anyway.
“Greedy Grubbers”
;)
SAS
Jim,
While I know this started as a quest for information for yourself and you are a stats guy,so you probably enjoy it. It is still very time consuming and the service you provide, while priceless, should be subject to a fee.
You have provided this info for free and it seems everyone wants more. I have seen other blogs, I can’t recall them off the top of my head but they charged for excell charts,and pdf versions of the data — a monthly fee I believe for the ability to get this data in its full form.
You work very hard and provide selflessly for many, many of whom would gladly pay.
KL
P:S: Since you have the goods and I want you to sell it, can I get a Commish??? You know 5-6% or so.. Times are getting tough ya know (-:
Yahoo Real Estate now provides “price per square foot”:
http://realestate.yahoo.com/New_Jersey/Summit
$889k original list on short hills home was a fool’s dream only. my best guess is it would’ve fetched low $700’s if priced appropriately in the spring of ’06 but now the market has decidedly turned due to psychology and seasonality. probably could’ve gotten closer to $700k if waited until the spring.
Richard, that’s 0.6 acres. I’ve seen people pay over a million for such a lot, and knock down the house. But that was in 2005.
Flippers are gone from the market.
4+ more years to go Grubbers!
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
This one went into “Attorney Review” last week, and either the buyer hit them with a bunch of inspection credits, or just walked away. The deal is dust.
Seller pulled the listing, probably hoping for a ‘spring bounce’ with a new MLS #. Good luck with that.
83 Maple Street
Millburn, NJ
MLS 2282638
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2282638&num=0&res=highres
Listed May 25, pulled Nov 30th.
unrealtor, i saw that house in millburn when it first came on the market in early june. i think they were asking somewhere in the $600’s. what was the final asking? it had some interesting features but it was on a very slanted road, no backyard and small.
#20, prior to about 1950, I don’t care what it says. The “modern” economy, with television news reports etc, began around then, in my view. You could even start at 1970.
Point is, prices in the last 5 years were completely out of line, and the current bust has a long way to go before we hit bottom. Even with recent declines, we’re still very near the top.
In modern times, each bust cycle is equal in magnitude and duration to each boom cycle.
Look out below Greedy Grubbers!
Richard #22, $625,000.
Assessed at $362,000 in 2001.
PH, so what’s your point? Do you feel the graph is incorrect?
If you have another graph of home prices, that would be great. Covering the last 40 years should suffice.
OK, let’s look at the actual numbers:
1998: $110,000
2005: $200,000
What conclusions can be drawn?
No links;
Overnight Global News
OPEC’s President and two OPEC oil ministers said today that OPEC may seek higher oil prices in order to offset the recent plunge in the dollar which has reduced the purchasing power of their petro-dollars. The dollar has fallen by about 11% against the euro this year. Oil prices fell today despite those comments due to the prospects for warmer weather in the US over the next week.
China’s economic expansion is already the longest and least volatile since free-market reforms began in 1978 and the expansion will continue at least another 2 years with GDP growth near 10%, according to a report released today by Goldman Sachs.
The Chinese yuan today hit another new 13-year high against the dollar due to continued general dollar weakness and as Chinese authorities allow the yuan to rise ahead of Treasury Secretary Paulson’s visit to China in mid-December.
“Here’s another lowball, just closed last week:”
270 White Oak Ridge Rd
Short Hills, NJ
Unrealtor,
You are right that’s .06 acres in that town. I guess the top towns are not immune.
PH,
I Think you mean
“Thats an increase of 8.91584% per year.”
Even still… I think your missing the point of the graph.. or just being obstinate.
Every RE bubble follows a similar decline…
considering the size of this one ..The decline should be huge…
What i take from the NY times graph is that over a very long period Real Estate increases at a moderate rate but along the way there are periods of increase and declines in prices. From the point where it is at now, it seems more likely that we will se a decline for the next couple of years until fundamentals catch up before it starts the climb again.
JB:
Interesting data, thank you for providing it. However, posting lowball sales from the outliers in the data does not tell the entire story. Looking at the entire dataset:
Average %OLP is 6.40%; median %OLP is 5.50%. Hence, half the houses sold had a %OLP greater than 5.50%; half the houses sold had a % off OLP less than 5.50%.
Average DOM is 80; median DOM is 63. So half the homes closed in November were on the market just over 2 months or less; half were on the market longer than two months.
I’m not sure half of sellers receiving 94.5%(100%-5.5%=94.5%) of their OLP or better and half of homes selling in two months or less indicates a stagnant (or worse) real estate market. Maybe the market is less compelling than in 2005, but the data suggest homes still sell with half selling under 63 days, and with half at 94.5% of the original listing price or better.
Sales concessions, if that data is available, might paint a different picture.
Thanks,
Matt
Matt,
Keep in mind that your analysis doesn’t take into account the homes that did not sell. With sales volumes down 13% year over year, and almost 29% over a two year basis, it’s a variable that can not be ignored.
jb
Matt
Your analysis does not acoount for for the re-listing and reset DOM
The data here is very informative and factual but I was curious if anyone here was actually actively investing in real estate?
If so, how has the market over the last 2 years ago affected your investments, good or bad?
How have you had to change your investment strategies to maximize your potential profit?