From the National Low Income Housing Coalition:
Out of Reach 2006 compares the Housing Wage to local wage and income levels for every county, metropolitan area and state in the country. The Housing Wage is the full-time hourly wage you would need to earn in order to pay what HUD estimates to be the Fair Market Rent for a home where you live spending no more than 30% of your income on housing costs.
…
As in past years, Out of Reach 2006 relies on data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Department of Labor and the Social Security Administration to make its case. (See Appendix A for a detailed explanation of data sources and methodologies.)The Fair Market Rent on which the Housing Wage is based is HUD’s best estimate of what a household seeking a modest rental unit in a short amount of time can expect to pay for rent and utilities in the current market. Thus, Fair Market Rents are an estimate of what a family moving today can expect to pay for a modest rental home, not what current renters are paying on average. Since HUD calculates Fair Market Rents for housing markets in all cities and non-metropolitan counties in the United States, Fair Market Rents are particularly helpful in answering questions about what renters who move or get a job in a specific location can expect to pay in monthly rental housing costs.
New Jersey state data can be found here:
Out of Reach 2006 – New Jersey
In New Jersey, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,103 . In order to afford this level of rent and utilities, without paying more than 30% of income on housing, a household must earn $3,676 monthly or $44,112 annually. Assuming a 40-hour work week, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into a Housing Wage of $21.21.
In New Jersey, a minimum wage worker earns an hourly wage of $7.15. In order to afford the FMR for a two-bedroom apartment, a minimum wage earner must work 119 hours per week, 52 weeks per year. Or, a household must include 3.0 minimum wage earner(s) working 40 hours per week year-round in order to make the two bedroom FMR affordable.
In New Jersey, the estimated mean (average) wage for a renter is $14.94 an hour. In order to afford the FMR for a two-bedroom apartment at this wage, a renter must work 57 hours per week, 52 weeks per year. Or, working 40 hours per week year-round, a household must include 1.4 worker(s) earning the mean renter wage in order to make the two-bedroom FMR affordable.
Monthly Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for an individual are $634 in New Jersey. If SSI represents an individual’s sole source of income, $190 in monthly rent is affordable, while the FMR for a one-bedroom is $947 .
Or if you prefer PDF:
http://www.nlihc.org/oor/oor2006/pdf/NJ.pdf
jb
That Toll interview in the WSJ….Toll is such un unmitigated pig.
can someone explain this crap to the layman? I don’t understand…..
WSJ: How long will it take for this housing slowdown to work itself out?
Mr. Toll: We are bouncing along the bottom. I would expect the inventory overhang, which is what is killing the confidence level, to be absorbed during the first several months of the next buying season. If that inventory is eaten up, and I expect it will be, then I think you will see an alarming rate of change in the supply-demand equation in house pricing. I think what we are in right now is an artificial inversion. To a large extent, it all depends on our perception of ourselves. It has a lot to do with politics.
Forecast: House Price Drop May Hurt Economy
Median house prices will decline by 8% to 10% over the next nine months and could create a serious drag on the economy, according to Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics. Even if the downturn in sales and construction is over early next year, there will be a huge inventory of unsold homes overhanging the housing market, Mr. Sinai told a housing symposium hosted by the Office of Thrift Supervision. “[M]edian prices of new and existing homes likely will continue to decline, particularly prices in those parts of the United States that have been bid up to unsustainable levels,” the economist said. The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting that house prices will decline by 3.5% in 2007. NAHB chief economist David Seiders says he expects single-family housing sales to bottom out during the current [fourth] quarter, but not the condominium market. And residential construction will bottom out in the first quarter of 2007, he forecasts.
The housing industry is desperately trying to reignite the “priced-out/missed-out” fear in the marketplace.
Lereah made a comment about “missing a window of opportunity” if buyers waited. A number of other builders have done the same, likely due to the NAHB “Buy Now” campaign.
jb
NJ is expensive, I have no idea how people who make 20-40K/year are making it…. I guess thats why there are people who rent out their houses to 15 different people (3 bedroom house, was in the new’s yesterday). This way you can charge only 300$/person and still get 4500$/month rent. welcone to Poor people US – but this also exists in other cities – when I live din denver there wasa house on the news – neighbours finally complained too much and police came and investigated.
In 2 bedroom house 50!!!! (really) people were stationed – mainly from Mexico, illegal immigrants. But imagine what a strain it put onto the neighbours??
I have a question though – is it really that bad in Mexico???
al, who do you think is renting all the
rooms,,, its either koreans or hispanics.
with consumer spending rising 1% in november and only revised downward .1% in october, the consumer just won’t die. reminds me of the austin powers movie when dr. evil drops one of his henchman into the fiery pit and he just won’t shut up and die ;)
strong consumer spending and continued low mortgage rates continues to provide support that a soft landing is achievable. i’m sure i’ll hear some conspiracy theories and just wait until tomorrow rhetoric from those here that just can’t see other points of view, but the data thus far does point more to a soft rather than hard landing.
Is “Soft Landing” = 5 years of no price appreciation???
Richard,
Are you talking about a soft landing for the U.S. Economy, the national housing market, or both?
jb
What Soft Landing for the Economy – I thought the “Economy is strongest in years”???
SO I guess we’re talking housing market here.
my oh my how about that xhb,,
housing dead? hum,,,,
Imagine how substantial this gap will be when another 900,000 people are estimated to arrive in NYC by 2030. How many will wind up in NNJ, by the way? Bloomberg’s prescience is something clearly lacking in NJ at the moment.
remember the trend is your friend
Chifi,
That Bob Toll quote is fantastic. I suppose “the next buying season” = the next 5 yrs. Those knuckleheads are still building more units in Hoboken.
PS. That’s the first time I’ve ever heard oversupply called an “artificial inversion”.
Richard: The only problem with the soft-landing scenario is we have never had one before, so is it possible, yes anything is possible, but it will be hard to judge a soft landing since historically we have nothing to comapre it to.
Should the fact that consumer spending still appears to be strong somehow be construed as support for the housing market, I do no see that, the spending may be storng, but its not being spent on housing.
Plus I do not take great confidence in people out there who may be recklessly spending money, in the belief that all is well with housing, and the government will not let the housing market fall and all the rest of the foolishenss I hear.
If they are spending based on teh above belief’s or as I suspect in may cases they are totally oblivious to what is going on, then that is a prty I will not be attending.
From housing bubble blog
Comment by shadash
2006-12-13 07:12:44
“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”
– Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
– Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”
– Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
“This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.”
– R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
“… a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall.”
– HES, November 10, 1929
“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
– Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
Anything sound like what the Real Estate talking heads are spewing out now?
Was just reading a report that indicated that every time (since 1959) that housing starts fell 25% (peak to trough), a recession followed. We are currently at a 34% drop from the January 2006 peak. BTW, the average peak to trough decline in housing stars has been around 50%.
The Phoney loans are drying up and the dummies using’em will all be thrown out in the streets where they belong.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
DO NOT TRUST REALTORS.
MAKE’EM PAY.
IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY!
TRY TO AVOID REALTORS IN ANY TRANSACTION.
BLEED’EM DRY!
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“San Francisco and other expensive coastal cities, including Monterey and Santa Barbara, have become unaffordable for the middle class. ‘I don’t see how the economy can continue with these prices,’ said Stephen Levy, senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
Just replace “other expensive coastal cities” with Metro NY region.
The Mtg sub-prime market is imploding.
Al in post 6 asks:
Is it really that bad in Mexico???
Yes, and in plenty of other places too.
RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Rate Highest in November
According to the November U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by RealtyTrac, the slowing of home price appreciation and even decreases in some areas are contributing factors to the nation’s highest foreclosure rate this year, with one new foreclosure filing for every 961 U.S. households.
RealtyTrac’s November report also showed a 68-percent increase in the total number of foreclosures from the same month last year, as 120,334 properties nationwide went into some stage of foreclosure.
“Defaults, auctions, and bank repossessions all trended higher in November, bringing the year-to-date foreclosure total to almost 1.2 million—up 43 percent from the same 11-month period of 2005,” said James J. Saccacio, CEO of the online database. “With home price appreciation slowing, and even declining in some areas of the country, homebuyers who stretched themselves financially to purchase a property don’t have much equity to work with if they experience even a small bump in their mortgage rate or disruption in their income.”
But despite increases, Saccacio says the recent dip in interest rates and a relatively low unemployment rate in pockets around the country will help keep the rise in foreclosures at bay.
By Foreclosure Rates
Nevada outranked Colorado for the state posting the highest foreclosure rate, reporting one foreclosure filing for every 346 households. And when compared to the previous year, the Silver State posted a 12-percent increase in foreclosure activity, reporting one foreclosure filing for every 346 households.
While Colorado was pushed down to second place after eight consecutive months at the top, its foreclosure filings are still up 88 percent from November 2005, despite a near 10-percent decrease from October this year.
Trailing on the heels of Nevada and Colorado in third place is Georgia, whose 7,056 properties entering foreclosure in November average out to a 60-percent increase from the same time last year. Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates are Ohio, Texas, Michigan, California, New Jersey, Indiana, and Tennessee.
By Number of Filings
According to RealtyTrac’s numbers, California has the most homes entering some state of foreclosure, reporting a number greater than 19,000. This was a 19-percent jump in foreclosure activity in just one month, moving it from 12th place to 7th in terms of highest foreclosure rates in the nation.
Texas, too, had foreclosure filings take a sharp upturn in November, with a 40-percent spike after reporting a decline in October. With foreclosures totaling 13,664 for the month, Texas had the second-highest total in the United States.
And while Florida saw the improvement of an 18-percent drop in foreclosure activity from October to November this year, it still had the third highest number of filings in November, with 9,362 homes entering some state of foreclosure.
Taking the fourth through 10th spots of states with the highest number of foreclosures are Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, Colorado, and New York, respectively.
In post #8:
Richard Says:
strong consumer spending and continued low mortgage rates continues to provide support that a soft landing is achievable. i’m sure i’ll hear some conspiracy theories and just wait until tomorrow rhetoric from those here that just can’t see other points of view, but the data thus far does point more to a soft rather than hard landing.
There is no such thing as a “soft landing.” As near as I can tell, the phrase means “My paycheck kept coming.”
A slowdown in housing, or any other sector of the economy or the economy as a whole, that would be small enough and short enough to be considered “a soft landing” wouldn’t be considered a slowdown at all, but a pause in the upward trend, or stagnation. We are already past stagnation in housing.
The overall economy still has horrible imbalances that need to be worked out. There has not been an economy yet that has consumed it’s way out of economic calamity and I really doubt this is going to be the one to break the string. Somehow I just can’t see burning the furniture to heat the house as a long-term viable solution to the problem.
From Marketwatch:
Wells Fargo CEO sees mortgage volume dropping 15% in 2007
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) Chief Executive Richard M. Kovacevich said Wednesday mortgage loan volumes are on track to fall 15% this year and possibly another 15% in 2007.
Kovacevich, speaking at a New York conference that was being Webcast, also said the San Francisco bank, one of the nation’s top mortgage lenders, sees an opportunity to profit through Wall Street’s growing interest in the mortgage industry.
Investment banks have been buying some mortgage originators, motivated by their need to meet investors’ burgeoning demand for asset-backed securities. With mortgage-loan volumes falling nationwide, the entrance of new players into the industry has been pressuring some lenders and clipping already strained margins. “That’s obviously going to be to some degree competitive,” Kovacevich said.
Lindsey:
“The overall economy still has horrible imbalances that need to be worked out. There has not been an economy yet that has consumed it’s way out of economic calamity and I really doubt this is going to be the one to break the string”
What a fabulous quote.
I have a question.
Background:
Today, my agent sent us a list of 6 homes in the same Bloomfield neighborhood (all within 3 blocks of each other). Two have been on the market for at least 55 days; the other four have been on the market for at least 110 days. All are listing between $399k and $429k (about right for 6-12 months ago, based on comps). The four older ones have all been reduced by either $10k or $20k recently and all claim to be “motivated” or “open to offers.”
We’ve lost two $399k list homes in a nearby neighborhood with offers of $369k and $375k. On the first (the house with the non-disclosed fire), the owner thinks she’ll get full price next year (ahem). On the second, we had the same offer as another buyer, but they were putting more money down. So only one home was lost due to our offer.
I know each situation is different, but how does the glut of inventory in December affect things? How low could we go, given everything above?
Thanks!
hey grim:
quick question…when will be able to search the site using the search button on top?
RE, you can use this in google:
site:https://njrereport.com
along with your search words
(this will search only this website)
Can someone do The Kid a solid, and provide any information on the following listing: MLS# 10080195
The standards really, how long on the market, last purchase price, address.
The Kid thanks everyone, in advance.
Hey First-Time,
Here’s my game plan (and, BTW, the one I’m sharing with all my clients):
Survey the market beginning the Monday after the Super Bowl. From that Monday, and for the next two weeks, try to get a sense of whether inventory is building or beginning to sell through.
If the inventory is building, you can go VERY low with offers. If the inventory shows signs of selling off, get in and buy fast. The beginning of the Spring market may well determine the rest of 2007.
The permabears here think they can forsee the future. I’m a RE professional…and I can’t. Do yourself a favor and don’t buy into a fixed mindset that can end up costing you. Do your homework and be ready for whichever scenario develops.
Clotpoll, I just saw the future. I don’t need to wait until a the Sbowl.
Inventory dropped like a brick last week in the lower end. I lost 20-25%.
Guess when it’s all coming back on?
Clotpoll-
Thanks for the good advice, but if I can find a deal over the winter months, I’d like to. There are hardly any buyers on the market and rates are low. I guess what I’m asking is how low can I go now?
Thanks again.
Just wanted to clarify that there is a ton of inventory in this particular neighborhood right now.
Clot, what is your advice to your Sellers?
my point on the soft or hard landing is many here say a housing slump will impact the economy to the extent we’re looking at a severe recession. the correlation/causation is open to interpretation and there are many folks out there trying to look at data from multiple angles to assess its strength (e.g. mew extraction).
to say that there are imbalances out there that need to be worked out might be true. the question you have to ask yourself is timing and how that affects you. if it’s a slow grind for 50 years as opposed to a 5 year hard correction would it change your approach? of course it would. timing is just as important as being right particuarly since we don’t spend much time on this planet.
Richard: Again I think you are missing the point, comparing 50 yearw to 5 years etc, is a bit if a stretch, don’s you think.
Whatever is going to happen, it will probably be in the next 2years or so, if once is to use past history as a guide. With all of the imblance out there, I find it hard to belive that we woeuld be in for a long slow grind.
How it all ends up, you arer ight, we do no treally know, but if we use history as a guide,a nd look at past bubbles, and mass hysteria, we can all agree that it all ended badly.
the amount of recklessness that has ensued over the last few years is mind boggling, at least to my mind. To think think that this may all end up with some so called soft landing, one of which we have never witnessed before, is in my mind wishful thinking.
clot: Perma bears predicting the future, I think not, but making a reasonable assumption that things will end badly based on all that we have seen come to pass is prudent.
With all due respect, you like other Realtors only look at one part of the picture. i have asked you several times about th dismal state of NJ’s employemnt out look, and other structural problems that the state forces (out of control property taxes) is you response we are close to NYC, as I have heard from other realtors? And so there is nothing to worry about.
Then there is the typical realtor spiel about after SUper Bowl, the so called new begining of the Spring market.
You advise the seller to go out and buy, becasue he may miss out at the begining of the Spring market etc. Are you now not predicting the future as you accuse us perma-bears of doing?
Are all of these mythical buyers going to rise up after Super Bowl, and run out and buy houses?, It sounds like realtor hypoe to me. Lest say it starts right after Valentines Day, or St. PAtrick’s Day, or whatever. You see the problem I have with that silliness, is that if it does nto coem to pass, then the spin will start, its too cold, too hot, too much snow, too little snow, then we move to Spring, it was too rainy, too cold, too hot, then we get to the summer, and iot startes again, too hot, too cold, people on vacation et. etc all the way until the end of the year. it is typical Realtor hype. I firmly belive that if people are serious about buying a house, they are not going to be making those decesions based on weather.
What can one reasonably assume going forward, here is my list.
1. Fixed rates are not going any where either up or down for most of 2007. Those hoping for a dramtic cut in short term rates, which would lower ARM rates any time soon are mistaken.
I believe Bernanke knows that those artifically low rates encouraged much of the so called appreciation in housing prices, and he will be loathe to make the same mistake as Greenspan.
2. A lot of the inventory that has been pulled from the market at the end of this year, will come back in the Spring, which will be added to the product already on the market (highest amount of listings for sale in my town at this time of year since 1991), which will be added to the new inventory that will be coming on the market in Spring of 2007. Thus making in my opinion lots of inventory to choose from.
3. Sellers, the seriou sellers, I believe come spring time will finally acknowledge that the bubble has indeed popped, and if they are serious about selling, for whatever reason or reasons will cut their prices accordingly, which will put downward pressure on prices across the board.
You claim you are a professional, and a long time realtor, yet you claim this could all be over in a matter of months;were you not in the business during the last down turn, do you not remember all that happened in that period?
I do, I remember it well,and that is why I believe history will repeat itself, only this time it will be worse, due to all of the recklessness that has transpired over the last 3 or 4 years.
OK, BergenBubbleBurst, we’re on the same page. So how low can I go? :)
READ MY LIPS: NO SPRING REBOUND…SPRING HOUSING MASSACRE…FEWER AND FEWER SUB-PRIMERS LEFT AND INVESTOR WARY OF THE FRAUDULENT PACKAGING.
PARTY IS OVER…
IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY…
MANY FOOLS BOUGHT IN 1988 – 1989 BEFORE THE LAST FLU AND FOUND THEMSELVES UNDERWATER FOR 10 YEARS!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
be careful making educated guesses based on historical trends. the future is no guarantee of such repeats and educated/rational approaches aren’t the biggest drivers of peoples behavior. trying to determine the tipping point and its consequences between reality and perception is where you can get your feet tangled up. this is why it’s so hard to time the markets be it RE, stocks or bonds.
bergenbubbleburst Says:
December 13th, 2006 at 2:40 pm
Bob approves of this message.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
I’m a RE professional
Your are a commissioned salesperson…notttt”ing more. And cannot be trusted.
Tsunami wave 2 is nearly upon us…then #3 then #4.
Think for yourself DO NOT TRUST A STARVING DESPERATE REALTOR. Take responsibility for your decion.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
be careful making educated guesses based on historical trends. the future is no guarantee of such repeats and educated/rational approaches aren’t the biggest drivers of peoples behavior.
Richard,
Perhaps you should make mention of that to the folks who point to those same historical trends as proof that real estate “only goes up”.
jb
This listing: MLS # 10102121 (Red Bank, NJ)
This is a new house, can anyone help me find the location or what company is building it? I’d like to find out more info on this new house.
Your insight and guidence is appreciated.
I just read the rest of the Toll interview. That guy is all over the place. Sounds like somebody who has just been through trauma. I am glad he let us know that the housing slump is all because of Hurrican Katrina.
“I am glad he let us know that the housing slump is all because of Hurrican Katrina.”
This is funny because housing in NO is at a premium since the hurricane.
Not only that but the construction figures down in the gulf coast goosed homebuilders and economic numbers upwards too.
‘I think what we are in right now is an artificial inversion.’
Talk about chugging Kool-Aid and ignoring reality … Pass me the kool aid my dear Bob Toll boy.
“If the inventory is building, you can go VERY low with offers. If the inventory shows signs of selling off, get in and buy fast. The beginning of the Spring market may well determine the rest of 2007.”
The trend was headed down during the summer, what is typically a stong selling season. when people saw this trend and responded accordingly they were labeled as a crystal ball reader. I would say that the above quote falls into the same exact camp. Especially the “get in and buy” rally.
richard: If all I can do is make an educated guess on past historical trneds, then that is what I intend to do. What is my other choice, go with the flow, hope it all works out, everybody else is doing it.
Sometimes i really wish I could join the crowd, but I cannot help myself, I am a contrarian, and I have found over the years, that I am right more than I am wrong, and as such I will continue to be a contrarian.
Many fo my friends and family call me pessimistic and gloomy, but I see what i see, I cannot simply ignore the facts, wish I could.
Hoever when I try to have an intelligent conversation with them, they look at me like I am clueless, and these are for the most part educated people (not that that alwasy matters), but they do not have a clue, about the economy, house values, prices, interest rates, the dollar, the list is endless. The usual repsonses go like this.
1. The government, the4 Fed will no tley house prices fall.
2. We are the greatest, richest country in the world etc
3. The Chinese need us, or we can kick the Chinese butts.
4. You do not need to worry about savings if own a house.
5. I do no want to talk about it any more.
Unless it is sports or entertianment or eating out, vacations they could not care less.
perhaps I should join them, there is alot to be said for beong clueless.
Bergenbubble,
Stay on your track. I know exactly what you are saying.
Yeah. Clueless is better. I’d say clueless.
Now where did I put that Paxil.
Bergenbuyer, the inventory is hittin the roof like Willie Wonka’s elevator. Hold tight for a couple more months.
Clotpoll Says:
December 13th, 2006 at 1:26 pm
The permabears here think they can forsee the future. I’m a RE professional…and I can’t. Do yourself a favor and don’t buy into a fixed mindset that can end up costing you. Do your homework and be ready for whichever scenario develops.
Clot: I agree with this course of action. It’s too easy to suffer from “selection bias” when you have a fixed thesis. If you only consider what supports your opinion, the conclusions are inherently subjective and potentially expensively wrong.
CaCa de Vaca Says:
December 13th, 2006 at 4:06 pm
Cow Cakes: nice handle!
Another CentralJ (from #36):
My advice to my sellers is the inverse of what I stated in #36…I think inventory levels going into Spring will determine the ’07 market.
To Bergenbubbleburst and Booyah Bob…I will no longer respond to the spoiled chum you keep throwing out as bait. Stare at the sun on your own time.
Posted this on the newer thread, will post it here as well.. Hat tip to Calculated Risk:
http://www.connectlive.com/events/ots1206/panel1.asx (Windows Media)
jb
I have to take opinion on this, if people are pulling homes off the market now becuase people actually believe that we will all magically come into money next year, how many people thing the following when they relist in spring
A- They will list higher than what they listed it for this year
B- They will ask the same price as they when it was on the market this year
C- They will ask a little less then this years price
I think its an intersting poll
I think A, becuase they actually believe that in the next few month people will be lined up aroud the block to buy there homes.
And of course it will happen since were all going to be getting 50% raises at work…LOL
That, Homey, is the $64,000 question for next year. Wish I knew.
Homer: There are always those smart and/or desperate sellers who are NOT going to let any agent convince them to pull their house for a few weeks or months. Some of them are going to try a different ploy: dropping the price. Not sure how many continuous listers will be increasing their prices.
Maybe that will be a determining factor in those inventory relist prices.
clot: I throw nothing out as bait, I simply respond and challenge what you say, its my job as a contrarian.
In reality in most intances speaking for myself, you do not respond to what I have to say. I wonder why? As a perosn I wish you no ill will, your industry is what I take issue with. Peace
Boy I just wanted to take a poll of how people think the market will be, just and a,b or c would have suficed :P Its just a guess.
A
B
C
Choose one :P
People in sales/middleman occupations have always been held suspect. At least he’s not in congress.
Homer’
I say C.
Yeah, me too. C.
Hey Clotpoll,
Homer’s poll – Whatd’ya say ?
Hey New in Town (from #66):
“People in sales/middleman occupations have always been held suspect.”
That’s a very interesting statement. As I recall, salespeople had something to do with pulling Europe out of the Dark Ages (that whole Renaissance Italian thing). A little more recently, the development of a mercantile class helped urbanize the US and sped the transition from a failing agrarian economy.
It only took me 20 years after getting out of college and smashing my head against the wall to realize there’s only one way to truly determine one’s own income, short of playing pro sports: SELL THINGS (don’t worry, I’m not veering into Make Money’s in-your-face bravado). However, making that choice entails accepting a commensurate responsibility, as failure is embodied by a very public- and ignominious- flameout.
Is the salesman distasteful to you because you perceive the role as that of glomming off someone else’s hard work or investment? Or is it that you see us as only being able to gain thru the deception of others?
On top of being simply salespersons, Realtors also carry the fiduciary responsiblity of agency. The classic definition of agency is the partnership of client and agent as one. In RE, it’s legally mandated that the agent must assume his clients’ interests as his own.
Are there bad practitioners? Sure. Is there massive room for improvement? Sure. The market we’re in now is weeding out bad guys fast, so things are getting better daily.
Is any income derived from sales somehow less legitimate than drawing a paycheck? Is there an inherent taint to self-employment, entrepreneurship or even “sticking it to the man”? Is the only righteous buck that which comes from the sweat of one’s brow in the production of tangible goods?
My answer is C.
c
I say B – under the opinion that people don’t have to sell and NO PAIN = NO PAIN.
If the economy falls off a cliff, then C.
If we are talking late 2007 or later, I think impatience sets in and people want to move forward with their lives.
I was in direct sales for 15 years so, no, I do not hold that view. A careful reading of my comment will show that it is an observation rather than an opinion.
Everyone other than hunter-gatherers and survivalists sells something to live.
Thanks, and sorry. Had you confused with some others here.
No Stats, No sales figures, All I have again is anecdotal. with regard to the Christmas shopping season. I am a notorious late starter, I have been finding something this year that I don’t remember finding in as many years as I can remember. I have been finding Parking!! Day, night, afternoon, morning, anytime I go I find parking!
Thats my proof.
KL
Property Type: Single Family
Price: $419,900
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 2 Full Baths, 1 Half Bath
Sqft: 2056
Lot Size: 50X100
Year Built: 2007
Area: Red Bank, NJ
County: Monmouth
MLS #: 10102121
Listed By
Listing Agent: MELISSA RAFFAY
Broker: DIANE TURTON, REALTORS-SEA GIRT
Firsttimebuyer: I think you can bid 20 to 25% below asking price, of course you will be accused of insulting the seller, and the seller will not want to give the house away etc.
The seller is insulted by your bid, that means nothing,as we can simply say we are insulted y their asking prices. Rememebr there is no scarity of supply any more
Of course you will get many rejections, but I believe ultimately you will be successful.
It is what I am planning to do, at the start of the new Spring selling season, except I have decided that the start date is not right after Super Bowl, but rather right after Little Christmas (Jan 6)
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This blog is great!